Department Of Political Science Telephone: Aligarh Muslim University Chairman: (0571) 2701720 Aligarh - 202002 AMU PABX : 2700916/27009-21 Chairman : 1561 Office :1560 FAX: 0571-2700528
Certificate
This is to certify that Miss. Fatima Umme Rubab, Research Scholar of the Department of Political Science, A.M.U. Aligarh has completed her thesis entitled, “NUCLEAR POLITICS IN WEST ASIA: A STUDY OF IRAN”, under my supervision. This thesis has been submitted to the Department of Political Science, Aligarh Muslim University, in fulfillment of requirement for the award of the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. To the best of my knowledge, it is her original work and the matter presented in the thesis has not been submitted in part or full for any degree of this or any other university.
Prof. Mirza Asmer Beg Supervisor
Maulana Azad Library, Aligarh Muslim University
Dedicated To My Great Grand Father Syed Ashraf Jahangir Semnani
Maulana Azad Library, Aligarh Muslim University All the praises and thanks are to almighty Allah (The Only God and Lord of all), who always guides us to the right path and without whose blessings this work could not have been accomplished.
Acknowledgements
I am deeply indebted to my father Late Prof. Syed Amin Ashraf who has been constant source of inspiration for me, whose blessings, cooperation, love and unconditional support always helped me. May Allah give him peace. I really owe to my mother Prof. Ummehani Ashraf who always inspires me a lot.
I’m extremely grateful to my supervisor, Professor Mirza Asmer Beg Department of Political Science, Aligarh Muslim University, Aligarh, for suggesting this topic and for helping me to acquire the confidence to embark upon this work. I owe him more supports, ideas and thoughts than it can be given due credit here. From inception to conclusion, this study owes so much to him.
I convey my sincere thanks to the Chairman, Professor Nigar Zuberi, Department of Political Science, Aligarh Muslim University, Aligarh, for providing necessary research facilities.
I also extend my profound thanks to Prof. Arif Hameed, Prof. Mohd. Abid, Prof. Nafees Ansari, Prof. Waseem Ahmed, Dr. Naseem Khan, Dr. Farhana Kausar, Mr. Aftab Alam, Dr. Naghma Farooqui and all other teachers of the Department whose valuable guidance and good wishes helped me considerably in the pursuit of my work.
A special thanks however, goes to my non teaching staff of the Department of Political Science, A.M.U. Aligarh especially Mr. Hammad, Mr. Asaf, Mr. Sulaiman,…
I would also like to thank each and everybody who have been directly or indirectly Maulanainvolved Azadin or have beenLibrary, the part of my Aligarh research work, Muslimand who has contributed University in any way in completing my work. Every help counts and sometimes the little thing in life bring a lot change. Thanks to everyone!
Fatima Umme Rubab CONTENT
Certificate
Acknowledgement
Introduction 1-7
Chapter -1 8-33
WEST ASIA: AN INTRODUCTION
Chapter -2 34-68
REASONS BEHIND INSTABILITY IN THE
REGION
Chapter -3 69-93
ARMS RACE IN REGION
Chapter – 4 94-124
IRAN’S NUCLEAR DEVELOPMENT AND ITS I
MPACT ON WEST ASIA
Chapter -5 125-145
TRENDS AND FUTURE PROSPECTS FOR MaulanaMIDDLE Azad EAST Library, Aligarh Muslim University Conclusion 146-152
Bibliography 153-162
Introduction
Maulana Azad Library, Aligarh Muslim University Introduction
INTRODUCTION
The current political condition in Middle East is going from bad to worse. There is no doubt in saying that if world war III may happen the spark will arise from Middle East.
Middle East is facing the unending list of problems like terrorism, external intervention, inter-state war, ethnic conflicts, political upheavals sectarian violence, falling oil prices, crash of stock markets and exchange rates and religions differences, etc.
There are three prominent countries of Middle East which are playing important role in Middle Eastern politics. These are the Sunni Saudi Arabia, the Shia Iran and newly born state of Israel. Saudi Arabia and Iran had long time differences on the basis of religion, influence and dominance. Israel is the only non-Arab and Jew country which had managed to gain its strong hold in the regional politics and decisions. Things have changed now Saudi Arabia and Israel are coming closer to counter their common enemy, which is Iran. The emergence of nuclear technology and weapons had greatly influenced the world power structure. Earlier there were only two countries having the nuclear weapon, these are the United States and Soviet Union and they were the most powerful nations of the world and there was bipolarity in international relations. Later, countries like Britain, China and France had become the powerful owners of this disastrous technology. By this the arms race started and countries like India, Pakistan had made nuclear weapons.
In Middle East, Israel is supposed to have nuclear bombs though it does not claim. Saudi Arabia is under safe umbrella of United States and is demanding the authority of having nuclear weapons, now the state of Iran is very ambitions and keen for being nuclear state since 1950s for countering its rivals in the region. The thing which makes the world against Iran’s nuclear development is its track record which shows MaulanaIran’s involvement Azad inLibrary, disturbances inAligarh other countries Muslim of region, extremist University religious leaders, anti-west sentiments and unexceptance of Israel, all this leads to the threat of proliferation and misuse of the most dangerous weapon.
Iran is working on its nuclear advancement in the name of civilian or peaceful purposes but United State and its allies had traced the secret nuclear sites of Iran
1 Introduction
where nuclear development programme is going speedily which had raised alarm of not only west but of the regional rivals too.
Considering all aspects of Middle Eastern politics and focusing on Iran’s nuclear development which is the most happening topic of today in the world, I have decided to carry out research work on the topic “Nuclear politics in West Asia: A study of Iran”. To make a systematic study I have divided my thesis into five chapters and hence my research emphasizes upon:
(1) Geo-political and strategic locations of Middle East and its importance. (2) Study and analysis of non-state actors, arms race in, the region and nuclear development and Iranian role in Middle East. (3) Trends and future prospects for Middle East.
The work is further divided into five different chapters –
In the first chapter there is a brief introduction of Middle East, its geography, history, religious and sectarian orientations. The land of Middle East is the crossroad of three continents that is Africa, Asia and Europe. Middle East is the region which is blessed with the hydrocarbons in abundance which is the life blood for economic growth and Military. These blessings on Middle East have become curse for the region and this region is the most volatile region on earth. We cannot ignore the religious importance of this region as it is the land which has given almost all major monotheistic religions. Christianity which is the largest followed religion followed by Islam, the second most worshiped religion and Judaism, the religion which become the basic factor behind the creation of Israel and had changed the map of Middle East. Along with these major religions there are many sects or small religious groups like Zoroastrians, Yazidis, Druzes, etc.
The geographical importance of Middle East also is one of the major reasons behind the conflicts and instability in the region. As American Naval historian A.T Mahan Maulanadescribed it as “AzadMiddle Asia Library,” which later becomes Aligarh Middle EastMuslim is composed University of two crucial pieces, a resource rich eastern half and western half that possess the line of communications and travelling which includes – the Suez Canal, the Red Sea and the very controversial Persian Gulf.
2 Introduction
The brief study of land, water bodies and mountains is done in this chapter. Agriculture is possible only in few areas of the region due to scarcity of water. The areas which are suitable for agriculture are the river basins of Nile along with Tigris and Euphrates river basins, the area of rich soil which forms an arc or crescent shaped parcel of land and includes the flood plain of Tigris and Euphrates and fertile land located on the eastern coast of Mediterranean Sea belonging to Israel and Lebanon. Many times the area of Nile river delta too is included and is often called as the “fertile crescent”.
The discussion of Middle East is incomplete with out “oil”. It is the biggest oil producing region of the world and oil is supposed to be the root cause of all conflicts and war which had resulted into instability in the region. The chapter also gives the introduction of the countries of Middle East which are developing nuclear weapons or supposed to have developed like Iran, Iraq and Israel.
In the second chapter of this research work “Reasons behind instability in the region” are dealt along with the causes of the instability, constant war, non-state actors and the causes of the emergence of the terrorist groups and the phases of development of terrorism in Middle East. Islam being majorly followed in all countries of Middle East, except Israel, is used for collecting young men from all over the world to fight in the name of ‘jihad’ and “Islamism”.
This chapter also covers major terrorist groups or non-state actors of the region like ISIS, Al-Qaida, Hamas, Hezbollah, etc and their supporting organizations which are active in almost every country of the region.
The third chapter is an attempt to analyze the “Arms race in the region” which is most debatable and hot topic of today. This chapter covers the arms race and its history in the region along with the global arms race. The countries of Middle East are desperate to have nuclear bombs for their defence and to become a regional power. The Maulanacountries Azad like Israel Library,which is suppose dAligarh to have the nuclear Muslim bomb technology University and Iran which is speedily working on its nuclear development had created fear in its neighbouring enemy countries and these countries are claiming the right to have nuclear weapons for their defence and this development and counter development of nuclear technology had led to arms race in the region. In this chapter a brief discussion is also done on nuclear technological development in other Middle Eastern
3 Introduction
countries like Saudi Arabia which had joined the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) and had agreed to have nuclear cooperation relationship in May 2018.
Syria is believed to have a reactor similar to the plutonium facility at Yongbyon in North Korea, however, it was destroyed by Israeli attack later in 2011. There was a proposal by Syrian Atomic Commission which had published a proposal for a new nuclear power plant by 2020. Syria infact is a non-nuclear state.
Jordan, Egypt, Libya too are interested in having nuclear power for peaceful purposes, Egypt’s nuclear programme was launched in 1954 and had got its first nuclear plant with the help of Soviet Union in 1961 and was later restarted by President Hosni Mubarak under the supervision of IAEA. Libya had joined IAEA in 1963. Libya got assistance from Soviet Union in nuclear development. On 19 December 2003 Libya agreed to destroy all weapons of mass destruction.
The active and speedy nuclear development is going in Iran which had raised alarm for United States and its allies. A discussion is done on Iranian nuclear development and its relationship with Saudi Arabia, the regional foe of Iran. This chapter also covers the arms import in the region and bases of the United States in the region of Middle East.
The fourth chapter is about the “Iran’s nuclear development and its impact on West Asia”. The chapter is about the nuclear history of Iran and its nuclear power plants. The study is done on the weapons and missiles owned by Iran, its uranium enrichment facility and heavy water facility for making the nuclear bomb. Iran’s nuclear sites are located at Bushehr, Natanz, Arak, Isfahan, Gachin, Yazad, Fordo, Parchin, Bonab, Tehran and at Saghand. By the Iranian nuclear development the regional countries got affected too, as Iran shares bitter relations with many of its neighbouring countries specially Saudi Arabia and Israel. The chapter also deals with the Iranian nuclear development and its consequences, specially covering United States, its relation of Maulanadistrust with Iran. Azad Library, Aligarh Muslim University The fifth chapter of the research work intends to discuss the “trends and future prospects for Middle East”. Here I propose to have the discussion on the Arab spring which had started from Tunisia and had spread all over like a “forest fire”. The protest was against the existing regimes as it was involved in corruption, there was
4 Introduction
unemployment, no jobs was there, while in states like Bahrain, Libya, Oman and Saudi Arabia the protest was against the government, the protest in some countries become violent an in authoritative countries like Saudi Arabia, the protests were banned.
In this chapter I have discussed the reasons of instability and constant conflicts and war like Israel-Palestine conflict, western interference, energy security, the growth of non-state actors, the nuclear programme of Iran and missile bases and production centers in Iran. The chapter also focuses on oil and its free flow to the west.
About future prospects I have argued that the peace in Middle East is not an easy task, Middle East has become on arena of war. Foreign countries like Russia and United States are fighting proxy war in Yemen and Syria along with Saudi Arabia and Iran. United States may withdraw itself from Middle East in long term. Iran and Saudi Arabia may go for war, by proxy war the tension will increase, more war will result into more refugee crisis which is great challenge for not only bordering countries but for West also. From the ongoing situation and non-flexible behaviour of Trump administration, the withdraw or review of Iranian deal forwarded by Obama administration is possible. There may be call for democracy in countries like Saudi Arabia and Sheikhdoms. With the sectarian violence and demand for a new country on ideological or ethnicity like Kurds, there is possibility of evolution of new countries that will change the map of Middle East.
The research questions
The general questions examined in the study emphasize upon the Iranian nuclear development and its consequences, and how the nuclear advancement of one state can lead to arms race in the region. Moreover, the study tries to examine the strategic importance of Middle East, the birth and role of non-state actors and their links with other states of the region. The research work also goes to find that why there is threat Maulanaof proliferation Azad of nuclear Library, technology ,Aligarh if Iran comes to Muslim own nuclear bombs University? And what are the trends and future prospects for Middle East?
Review of literature
Review of literature is an essential part of any serious and systematic research work. It has become imperative, since it helps:-
5 Introduction
- To develop a general explanation for observed variation in a behaviour or phenomenon. - To identify the potential relationship between concepts and to identify reasonable hypothesis. - To learn how others have defined and measure key concepts. - To identify data sources that other researchers have used. - To develop alternative research design - To discover how a research work is related to the work of others.
Alireza Jafarzadeh in his book “Iran the threat” had presented Iran’s secret uranium- enrichment and plutonium production, Iran’s links with the terrorist organizations and its role in Iraq.
It explains the broader goals for the future Middle East and the threat that Iran poses towards Persian Gulf and United States. It gives the detailed study of how civilian programme of Iran was turned into a military one.
Bijan Mossavar-Rahmani in his book “Energy policy in Iran: domestic choices and International implications” deals with the origin of nuclear power programme of Iran, prospects for nuclear power. He had also focused on the changing structure of oil market and the assessment of energy demand pattern.
War, peace and terror in the Middle East by Raphael Israeli is the collection of articles in which he has studied the globalization of Islamic terrorism, Arab-Israel conflict and the act of terrorism against western culture which was started by Al- Qaida.
Al- J. Venter in his book “Iran’s Nuclear Option: Tehran’s quest for nuclear bomb” analyses Iran’s nuclear pursuit and how close Iran is to building an atom bomb? How its missiles are guided to hit the neighbouring state of Israel. The author also has presented Iran’s history of terror and how Iran had taken the help of countries like MaulanaSouth Africa, Russia Azad and N orthLibrary, Korea to have Aligarh nuclear technology. Muslim University
West Asia: An Introduction is a project of research associates of Centre of West Asian Studies, Aligarh Muslim University. In this book a brief, well formulated and articulated study of history, geography, social structure and ideological orientations of
6 Introduction
West Asia has been done. This book gives the basic necessary information about West Asia.
Methodology
The proposed study has been made relying on the case study method. However as per the requirement of the different contexts, a few other methods have also been followed. For instance, document analysis method has been adopted while examining various reports and related documents of IAEA and AEOI. Nation State is the unit of analysis. We have also used the archival materials and made use of the analytical method.
Maulana Azad Library, Aligarh Muslim University
7
Chapter -1 West Asia: An Introduction
Maulana Azad Library, Aligarh Muslim University Chapter -1
CHAPTER -1
WEST ASIA: AN INTRODUCTION
West Asia or Middle East is the term used for the land that exists in south-west Asia and north-east Africa. It extends over 200 miles from black sea in the North to the Arabian Sea in the South and about 1,000 miles from the Mediterranean Sea in the West to the Mountains of Iran1.
This region is the tri- juncture of three continents Africa, Asia and Europe2 and because of the strategic importance, the region became arena for military encounters and is still one of the most volatile region in the world.3
It is also the birth place of three main monotheistic religions.
1. Christianity 2. Islam 3. Judaism
Along with these three big religions, this is the native place of small sects of religious communities like Zoroastrians, Yazidies, Druzes, Sabians and Bahais.
The term Middle East was coined in 1902 by the American Naval Historian A.T. Mahan4. By that time Mahan was not aware of large petroleum reserves, naval theorist Alfred Thayer Mahan was first American who did systematic study and had written about the political and strategic relationship between the United States and the rest of the world.
Earlier in writing the problems of Asia in 1900, Mahan identified a place between thirty and forty degrees north latitude and running from the Mediterranean basin in the west to Korea in the East – an area he labeled as – “Middle Asia”.
Maulana Azad Library, Aligarh Muslim University
1 techmiddleeast.lib.uchicago.edu accessed on 9 Sep 2017 2 West Asia: An Introduction- Centre of West Asian Studies – AMU, 1994, p.1 3 Naji Abi-Aad and Michel Grenon, Instability and Conflict in Middle East: People, Petroleum and Security Threat, Palgrave Macmillan 1997. p.49. 4 West Asia: An Introduction op. cit., p. 1, 27, 28.
8 Chapter -1
More than that Middle Asia is composed of two crucial pieces: a resource rich eastern half and a western half that contained the lines of communication and travelling which includes –
- The Suez Canal - The Red Sea - The Persian Gulf
In 1902 in his national review article “the Persian Gulf in International Polities” he renamed this large region as “Middle East”.5
This area covers the land that exists in South-West Asia and North-East Africa.6 The Middle East includes Iran and Arabia along with lower basin of the Euphrates, Tigris and occasionally Afghanistan and India.7
This region is surrounded by seven major Seas-
1. Mediterranean Sea 2. Black Sea 3. Caspian Sea 4. Dead Sea 5. Red Sea 6. Persian Gulf 7. Arabian Sea8
The land of Middle East occupies an important position on globe in the age of air navigation because of its strategic and geographical location.9 It is the crossroad of Eurasia and Africa having Suez Canal, Strait of Hormuz, Turkish Straits and Bab-al- Mandeb.10
Maulana5 Matthew F. Jacobs, Azad Imagining theLibrary, Middle East: The Aligarh Building of an American Muslim Foreign Policy, University 1918- 1967. Publisher the University of North Caroline Press-2011, pp. 26-27 6 techmiddleeast.lib.uchicago.edu accessed on 9 Sep 2017
7 West Asia: An introduction op. cit., p.1 8 www.worldatlas.com accessed on 10 Sep 2018 9 Halbord L. Hoskins, The Middle East : Problem Area in the World Politics – The Macmillan company New York – 1954 –p.3 10 https://cos.gmu.edu>gg sites 2015/08 accessed on 21 Oct 2017.
9 Chapter -1
In the North of the region, there is a belt of mountains extending over the states of Turkey and Iran, southern part is largely composed of plains and plateaus. The plateau of Anatolia is in between the two mountain chains one in north, the Pontus and other in south, the Taurus.
In the eastern part of Turkey, Pontus and Taurus range come closer to each other forming a complex upland.11 While Armenia is beautified by nature with Mount Ararat which is believe to be the resting place of Noah’s ark in Christianity.
In East there in There are two main Mountain ranges –
1. The Elburz 2. The Zagros12
Elburz Mountains stretch from the border of Azerbaijan along the western and entire southern coast of Caspian Sea and runs to north-east and merges into Aladagh Mountain in northern part of Khorasan.
The Western Elburz range is also known as Tailsh Mountains that runs to the south- east along the western coast Central Elburz runs west to east along the southern coast of Caspian Sea. Eastern part of Elburz runs in north-east direction towards northern part of Khorasan region that is south-east of Caspian Sea.
Elburz range is among the highest in the region and includes Iran’s higher point, Damavand (8 934 ft or 5,771 m); other highest peaks are Alamkuh and Takht-i- Suleiman.13
Zagros Mountain – In the south-western Iran Zagros extends from north west-south east, from the border areas of eastern Turkey and northern Iraq to the Strait of Hormuz. It forms the extreme boundary of Iranian plateau. The highest point in the range is mount Dena, (14,465 feet or 4,409 meters) located in the Middle of the Zagros. Here the large reserves of petroleum are located in or near the south-western Maulanafoothills. Azad14 Library, Aligarh Muslim University
11 West Asia: An Introduction op. cit., p.3 12 www.livius.org accessed on 20 Sep 2017 13 geography.name accessed on 7 Nov 2017 14 www.britannica.com accessed on 7 Nov 2017.
10 Chapter -1
The Euphrates – Tigris River Basin
Almost all water of Euphrates and Major portion of water of Tigris come from within Turkey.15
The Euphrates (Al-Furat) is about 1,740 miles around 2800 Km, Tigris (Dijlah) is about 1,180 miles around 1900 Km. The rivers flow in South – easterly direction though the central plain and combines at Al- Qurnah from Shatt al-Arab and discharges into Persian Gulf. The region has historical importance as a part of the Fertile Crescent, the region in which civilization is believed to have emerged.16 The term Fertile Crescent was coined by James Henry Breasted in 1914 to refer to area of fertile agriculture zone that formed the basis for early civilizations which includes Iran, Syria, Lebanon and Israel.17 Towards east of the border of Iran and Afghanistan a very complex pattern of Mountain lies that is Eastern Iranian high lands.18
The Iranian plateau is large area of inland drainage in central Iran, the plateau is about 1,000 Km in length from North West to South East and about 600 Km in width.19 In the lowest parts of the plateau, salt desert Dasht-e-Kavir is in North while Dasht-e-Lut lies in South.20 Most of the settlements have been established on the plateau because of availability of water and flat land which is the basic need of agriculture. Infact major urban centers of Iran are located on the plateau. Most of the people are concentrated in the north-west and western parts of the plateau around the major urban centres of Tehran, Qazvin, Hamdan, Qom, Isfahan and Shiraz.21
About two third of the plateau belongs to Iran while the remainder belongs to Afghanistan and Pakistan. The northern edge of the plateau lies within USSR which part of the Kopeh Dagh, (which is the Turkmeno – Khorasan mountains), while its western regions are in Iraq.22
Maulana15 John F. Kolars Azad and William Library, A. Mitchell. The EuphratesAligarh River andMuslim the South East University Anatolia Development Project, SIU Press-1991, p.1 16 https://www.britannica.com/place/Tigris-Euphrates-river-system accessed on 27 Nov 2017. 17techmiddleeast.lib.uchicago.edu accessed on 6 Nov 2017 18 West Asia: An Introduction op. cit., p. 4. 19 www.iranicaonline.org accessed on 8 Nov 2017 20 West Asia: An Introduction op. cit., p. 4. 21 www.iranicaonline.org accessed on 8. Nov 2017 22 https://encyclopedia2.thefreedictionary.com- accessed on 8 Nov 2017.
11 Chapter -1
The Arabian Peninsula is in the South of West Asia. The plains and plateaus are the major characteristic feature of the physical geography of the region.
The vast plateau of Arabian Peninsula is broken piece of the ancient plateau known as, the Gondwana, the Arabian Peninsula is a single block of ancient crystalline rocks that forms the largest unit of Middle Eastern region. The highest land which attained the altitudes of more than 3700m in Yemen is found at the South Western corner of Arabian Peninsula.23
Jaziratul Arab or Arab peninsula is meeting point of Africa and Asia consisting mainly of desert. This area is the heart of Middle East and plays important geo- political role because of its reserves of oil and natural gas.24 On the West and South- Western side there is Red Sea and the Gulf of Aqaba is on the South Eastern side. The Gulf of Aden is on the South, the Arabian sea on the South and south-east and the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf (also known as Arabian Gulf) is on the East.25
Red Sea (Al-Bahr al-Ahmar) is an extension of the Indian Ocean located between Africa and Asia. Entrance to the sea in the south is through the Gulf of Aden and the Bab al-Mandeb (strait). In the north the Sea is accessed from Middle Eastern countries via the Gulf Aqaba (or Gulf of Eilat) and connects Mediterranean Sea through Suez Canal and Gulf of Suez.26
Red sea contains some of the world’s hottest and saltiest Sea water. With its connection to Mediterranean Sea via Suez Canal it is one of the most heavily traveled waterways in the world. It carries maritime traffic between Europe and Asia.27
Arabian Sea is located in the north-west part of the Indian Ocean, situated between the Arabian Peninsula and the Indian sub-continent. It merges with Gulf of Oman to the north-west and the Gulf of Aden in the south-west. The Sea has its shore in Iran, Arabian Peninsula, Pakistan and India.28
Persian Gulf or Arabian Gulf - on one side of water there is Iran and on other side is Maulanathe collection Azad of Arab Library, states which Aligarh includes Iraq, Kuwait,Muslim Saudi Arabia, University Bahrain,
23 West Asia: An Introduction op. cit., p. 4 24 www.newworldenyclopedia.org. accessed on 14.10.17 25www.britannica.com accessed on 14.10.17 26 www.worldatlas.com- accessed on 8 Nov. 2017 27 www.britannica.com accessed on 8.11.2017 28 www.newencyclopedia.org>entry Arabian Sea – accessed on 9 Nov 2017
12 Chapter -1
Oman and the Unites Arab Emirates. The ancient geographer Strabo and Ptolemy called this stretch of water “the Persian Gulf”. During the era of 1960s due to rise of nationalism, states started calling it the “Arabian Gulf”.29 The Persian Gulf or Arabian Gulf is an extension of Arabian Sea positioned in heart of Middle East. It connects with Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea though Strait of Hormuz.30
Gulf of Oman is a western extension of the Arabian Sea, positioned in Middle East between Iran, Oman and United Arab Emirates.
It is the entrance to the Persian Gulf from the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean and because of this shipping route for the oil producing countries in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman occupies important strategic as well as economic position.31
Gulf of Aqaba (Khalyj –al- Aqabah) in Israel known as the Gulf of Eilat is a large Gulf of the Red Sea. It is located east to the Sinai Peninsula and west of Arabian Peninsula. Egypt, Israel, Jordon and Saudi Arabia all have coastlines on the Gulf of Aqaba. The Gulf is also a connecting point for the African and Asian continents.32
Gulf of Aden – Gulf of Aden is located on the Indian Ocean between Yemen on the south coast of the Arabian Peninsula and Somalia in Africa. In the North-West it connects with the Red Sea through the narrow Bab al- Mandeb strait.
The Gulf of Aden is an essential water way for Persian Gulf oil. Because of its waterway it is very important for economic purpose.33
Strait of Hormuz is the passage from where over 90 percent of oil exports from the Persian Gulf is carried. It is a vital sea passage which only 30 miles wide at its narrowest point. It contains the islands of Qeshm. Hormuz has great strategic and economic importance.34
Suez Canal is located in Egypt which connects the Mediterranean Sea with the Gulf of Suez, a northern branch of Red Sea. The Canal is a significant transport link and Maulana Azad Library, Aligarh Muslim University
29 www.theguardian.com accessed on 12 Nov 2017 30 www.theatlas.com accessed on 12 Nov 2017 31. www.worldatlas.com accessed on 13 Nov 2017 32 www.newworldencyclopedia.org>entry accessed on 13 Nov 2017 33. www.newencyclopdia.org>entry accessed on 13 Nov 2017 34https://www.strausscentre.org /hormuz/straitfhormuz.html accesses on 12 Nov 2017
13 Chapter -1
assists in reducing transit time drastically. It is one of the most important water ways of the world. Nearly 8% of the shipping traffic of world passes from this Canal.35
The silent economic war in Gulf of Oman is going on due to the expansion of Gwadar port in Pakistan. It is a fame changing venture that would reformulate the economic agenda of the entire region. Due to this development of Gwadar port tension is ensuing in the Gulf of Oman between two groups of countries, on one side there is Pakistan, China and Qatar on the other side is India and UAE. Gwadar port is considered as a strategic location giving China and Central Asia access to the Gulf region and the Middle East. Gwadar port is expected to be the main Sea gate for central Asia.36 The Levant has been described as the cross road of western Asia the eastern Mediterranean and North Africa.37 The Levant is an old term referring to countries of the eastern Mediterranean some scholars includes in it Cyprus and a small part of Turkey.
But basically the Levant has throughout history meant Syria, Lebanon and Palestine. This means Jordan, the West Bank (now under Israeli occupation) and Israel itself are part of the Levant.
The Levant is the world’s most blood-drenched land, especially the coastal strip, for there is no other place in the world which has been fought for so much.38
Today, the Levant consists of Lebanon Syria, Jordan, Palestine, Israel, Egypt, Iraq, Cyprus and parts of Southern Turkey (Aleppo Vilayet).
Etymologically, “Levant” is the French word for “Rising”. It comes from Lever, originating from the Latin Leaver, which means “to rise”. The Levantine region, therefore, was given its name in reference to the point where the Sun rises (the East).39
Mount Hermon (Jabal-el-Shaikh) snowy mountain is a mountain in anti-Lebanon mountain rage. The entire range covers an area of about 1000 Sq. Km. of which about Maulana70 Km/Sq Azad are under Library,Israeli control. Aligarh Muslim University
35 http://www.marineinsight.com>amp accessed on12 Nov 2017 36 www.opendemocracy.net accessed on 8 Nov 2017. 37 https://ipfs.io>ipfs>wiki>levant- accessed on 14 April 2018 38Mohammad Ali Siddiqi What is the Levant? Published by the Dawn, www.dawn.com. updated June 2014 accessed on 18 Oct 2018 39 levantministries.org accessed on 14 April 2018
14 Chapter -1
The Summit of Mount Hermon is on the border between Syria and Lebanon and is under Syrian control. The southern slops of the mountain came under Israeli control following 6 day war in 1967.
The mountain represents crucial geographical resources and the source of the Jordon River. It is also the strategic high ground overlooking Lebanon, Syria and Israel.
Lebanon Mountain Range (Jabal Lubana) also Jabal al-Gharbi or mount Lebanon is a mountain range that is extending almost to entire length of Lebanon paralleling the Mediterranean coast for about 150 miles (240 Km) with northern outliers extending into Syria.
Anti -Lebanon Mountains (Al-Jabal Ash- Sharqi) or Lubnan Ash Sharqi Mountain rage that runs north-east to south-west along the Syrian-Lebanon’s border parallel to Lebanon Mountain.40
Among mountains Jabal al- Akhdar is different and popular because of its Green Mountain. Jabal al- Akhdar, it means “The Green” Mountain in Arabic which is name for eastern mountainous coastal region lying close to the western boundary of Egypt.41 Most of land of West Asia is covered by high mountains, plateaus and deserts.
Al-Hajar Mountain chain is in north Oman, with its steep slopes seaward, it is parallel to the coast of Gulf of Oman and stretches in are a south-east ward from the Musandam Peninsula almost to Ra’s (cape). Al- Hadd is on the extreme north eastern tip of the Arabian Peninsula. From north-west to south-east the al- Hajar (the stone) range that includes the ru’us al-Jabal overlooking the Strait of Hormuz, the al-Hajar- al-Gharbi (western Hajar) the vast massif of Jabal al- Akhdar (Green Mountain), the Jabal Nakhl the al- Hajar al- Sharqi (Eastern Hajar) and the Jabal Bani Jabir, Al Hajar reaches its greatest height at mount shams (9,777 feet [2,980 meters]).42
Another mountain which is also a geographic barrier in between the continent of MaulanaEurope and Asia Azad is the Caucus Library, Mountain. The Aligarh Caucas Mountain Muslim in Eurasia is betweenUniversity the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea in the Caucus region. It occupies parts of Russia,
40 http://www.britannica.com. Lebanon Mountains accessed on 25 Oct 2017 41 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com accessed on 30Oct. 2017 42 https://www.britanica.com accessed 10 Nov 2017.
15 Chapter -1
Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia, going mainly from north-west to south-east. The Caucus Mountains are made up of two separate ranges, the greater Caucasus in the north and the lesser Caucasus in south and also the middle Caucus range. Its highest peak is mount Elburz at 18,510 feet (5,642 meters), in the Greater Caucus range.43 Along with Mountains, plateaus are also an important feature of geography of West Asia. In plateaus, Anatolian plateau and Arabian Peninsula are the most significant because of its geographical and geological reasons.
Discussing Anatolian plateau, Anatolia or Asia Minor is a peninsular landmass comprising of the Asian portion of the modern republic of Turkey the region is bounded by the Black Sea to the north, the Caucasus to the North- East, the Aegean Sea to the west, the Mediterranean Sea to the south, greater Syria to the south- east and Transcaucasia and Iranian plateau to the east. The Sea of Marmara is at its north- west.
This region had seen birth of civilizations including the Byzantine and Ottoman Empires. Because of its strategic location and being the meeting point of the two continents, the region has played a major role in world history and is a bridge connecting east and west.44
The Arabian Peninsula is the broken piece of an ancient plateau known as Gondwana.45 Arabian Peninsula is the largest peninsula of world. It occupies an area of about 3 million Sq. Km with Iraq (its southern part) Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. 46
The region is among the least blessed area on Earth with respect to availability of water resources but another liquid which is precious one, is oil which is in abundance along with natural gas.47
“The Arabian desert, is one of the largest deserts on earth only after Sahara, it is stretching from Yemen to the Persian Gulf and from Oman to Jordan and Iraq. It Maulana Azad Library, Aligarh Muslim University
43 encyclopedia.org accessed on 10 Nov 2017. 44 www.worldencylopeidia.org accessed on 10 Nov 2017 45 West Asia: An Introduction op. cit., p.4 46 www.quickge.com/list accessed on 11 Nov 2017 47Naji Abi AAd and Michel Grenon. op. cit., p.137
16 Chapter -1
occupies most all of the Arabian peninsula, with an estimated area of 2,330,000Sq/Km about 9000,000 Sq. miles.48
Among Desert of Arabia Al-Nefud Desert, Ar Rub’al Khali desert and Al- Dahna are major ones. The Arabian Peninsula is composed of Asir and Hejaz Mountains where “Asir” (difficult country) is the region of south eastern Saudi Arabia to the north of Yemen.49 Asir Mountain range in the south west of Saudi Arabia is running parallel to the coast of Red Sea.50
Hejaz region of western Saudi Arabia runs along the mountainous Red Sea coast of the Arabian Peninsula, from Jordan on the north, to Asir region on the south.51 Hejaz is birth place of Islam. The holy land of Mecca and Medina is located in this region.
The geographic heartland is known as Najd. It is rock plateau sloping east ward from the mountains of Hejaz. On the northern, eastern and southern sides it is bounded by the sand deserts of Al-Nefud, Al- Dahna and the Rub- al- Khali.52 Al- Dahna is a reddish sandy desert in central Saudi Arabia.53
In South Eastern part of Saudi Arabia, the largest Sand Sea in the world Rub- al- Khali is situated. It stretches across four countries, covers most of Arabian Peninsula, it includes parts of Oman, the United Arab Emirates and Yemen.54
Other deserts of Middle East are Dasht-e-Lut and Dasht-e-Kavir. Both of them are located in Iran, Dasht-e-Lut is the world 25th largest desert and is the world’s driest and hottest place.55 There is no vegetation or animal life here.56 It is the largest salt desert.57
48 www.britanica.com accessed on 13 Nov 2017. 49 www.britanica.com accessed on 12 Nov 2017 50 Majid Husain, Understanding Geographical Map entries for Civil Services Examinations https://books.google.co.in accessed on 12 Nov 2017 51 www.britannca.com accessed on 12 Nov 2017 Maulana52 www.britannica.com Azad. accessed Library,on 12 Nov 2017 Aligarh Muslim University 53 http://gizmodo.com accessed on 3 Oct 2017. 54 www.nasa.com- accessed on 3 Oct 2017 55 http://sitesgoogle.com. Physical geography of global parks: spring 2017, 3 Oct. – accessed on 12 Nov 2017. 56 www.persiantourisn.com-lut desert www.persiantourismguide.com dasht-e-lut accessed on 12 Nov 2017.
57 economictimes.com accessed on 14 Nov 2017
17 Chapter -1
Dasht-e-Kavir is one of the two deserts dominating the region’s land-scape, is a mix of sand and salt. Dasht-e-Kavir is also known as “Kavir-e-Namak” and this great salt desert is a large desert lying in middle of Iranian plateau58 which is around 300 meters from east to the south east of Tehran.
The regions two major river systems are the Nile and the Tigris and Euphrates, the Nile is the world’s longest river and life blood of Egypt.59 While Tigris and Euphrates flow in region of Mesopotamia (today’s Iraq) both flow almost parallel to one another which allows the flood plains of each river to join together and form a fertile land.60
Economy an agriculture
Agriculture- due to scarcity of water the survival of agriculture is the most crucial factor.61 There is lack of water resources for irrigation less rainfall and moisture less soil leads to very low production of grains.62 Hence all countries except Turkey imports food grains.63
Agricultural development and food supply represent a central issue and one of the biggest challenges to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The increased disproportion between per capita food production and consumption suggests worsening of food situation in the region. The region of Middle East totally depends on food imports and foreign exchange earnings constituting a major determinant of food security.
The agriculture sector is generally viewed as the driving force for the development of the MENA region especially in non-oil production countries.
The MENA region is endowed with limited arable lands estimated at 53 million hectares in the year 2005, with per capita arable land of only 0.17 hectares, competed to 0.22 hectares at the world level. Renewable fresh water resources flow around 228
Maulana Azad Library, Aligarh Muslim University 58 Dash –e-Kavir desert, Iran by Tauheed Ahmad on May 19, 2017 http://file.scirp.org>PDF>OJG by A. Yazdi accessed – 12.10.17 May, 2017 www.charismaticplanets.com accessed on 13.10.17 59 www.travelnewegypt.com accessed on 15 Oct 2017 60 www.sc4geogrphy.net assessed on 16.10.17 61 West Asia: An Introduction op. cit., p-13 62 https://www.jstor.org accessed on 12 Nov 2017.
63 West Asia: An Introduction op. cit., p. 13
18 Chapter -1
billion cubic meters of water, annually in the MENA region, representing 0.5% of total fresh water flows in the world.
Agriculture fully depends on water and production of land is which based on irrigation. The irrigated land productivity is more than double to that of rain water fed land. In the region of Middle East and North Africa only 20% of the area of production is under irrigation. On the whole agriculture uses 89% of Middle East and North Africa’s water, compared to 70% at the world level.64
The areas which are suitable for agriculture are of Nile and Tigris and Euphrates river basin. The flat flood plains of this river Nile are very suitable for agriculture. The river Nile provides an adequate water supply for irrigation and drinking. Due to flood the soil becomes rich in nutrients because of the fine sediments brought down stream by the annual floods with the construction of Aswan dam flooding is prevented in the lower Nile due to which productivity and fertility of this land is hindered.
Another fertile land in West Asia is the Tigris and Euphrates river basin, although Tigris and Euphrates river are not as large as Nile, they flow almost parallel to one another which allows the flood plains of each river to join together which provides thousands of hectares of rich farmland, to the flood plains of the Tigris and Euphrates River connected with fertile land located on the eastern coast of the Mediterranean Sea (Israel and Lebanon). This area of very rich soil formed an arc or crescent shaped parcel of land stretching from Persian Gulf of the Mediterranean Sea. Therefore it has often been referred to as the “fertile crescent”.65
Among the agricultural products the Middle Eastern cotton and textile products are still an important export of the region, other important agricultural exports found in supermarkets around the world include citrus fruits, dates, figs, apricots and olives.66
Tunisia is one of the world’s biggest producers of Olive Oil. It also exports dates and citrus fruits. Energy crop such as Jatropha is grown in arid region for bio-diesel Maulanaproduction.67 Azad Library, Aligarh Muslim University
64 www.iemed.org>anuari>articles PDF accessed on 15-10-17 65 www.sc4geography.net accessed on 16-10-17. 66 www.pbs.org accessed on Oct 17,2017 67 https://www.ecomena.org/agriculture accessed on 17Oct 2017
19 Chapter -1
We can deny the fact that war and encroaching deserts destroyed and reduced the regions fertility. Earlier from the land of Nile river to the field of Tigris and Euphrates valley, from the rich soil of Lebanon’s Bekaa valley to other countries the fertile, crescent supplied considerable amount of grain, vegetables and fruits.68
Because of arid and semi-arid condition of countries like Israel and Jordan, they have developed techniques for controlled watering in green houses and outdoors while Tunisia, Morocco along with Israel are experimenting with the recycling of used water. Agricultural advancement is also going on in Arabian Peninsula countries which are advancing techniques for desalination of water and the use of halophytic crops.69,70
Those regions which are around Mediterranean Sea are highly dependent on agriculture. However contribution varies from 3.2% in Saudi Arabia to 13.4 in Egypt. Large scale mechanization had resulted into extensive production of high-value cash crops including fruits, vegetable, cereals and sugar in Middle East.
In addition, significant quantities of Rice, Maize, Lentils, Chick peas, vegetables and fruits are produced throughout the region mainly in Egypt, Tunisia, Saudi Arabia, Morocco and Jordan.
Egypt is the one of the greatest producer of rice and cotton. While Tunisia produces olive oil, dates, citrus fruits. Agriculture is a major source of Tunisian economy.72
Oil
Throughout the second half of 20th century oil has been at the heart of foreign policy. The Suez Crisis in 1956, the 1973 Arab oil embargo, the consequences of Iran-Iraq war 1980 and the two Gulf Wars in 1990 and 2002, all show how oil is an important factor governing the foreign policies or international relations.71
Maulana Azad Library, Aligarh Muslim University
68 John Lawton, Farming in the Arab East published on May-June, 1978 Print edition of Saudi Aramco World, pp.2-3 archive.aramcoworld.com accessed on 18 Oct 17. 69 https://cals.arizona.edu accessed on 18 Oct 2017. 70 https://www.ecomena.org/agriculture accessed on 17Oct 2017 71Simon Bromley, Joshua Busby Nils Duquet, Leben Nelson Moro, Peter Utting and Kate lves- International Politics of Oil, vol 2, No.1, May 2006, p.4 https://www.jstor.org accessed on 18 Oct 2017.
20 Chapter -1
The current economic condition totally depends on energy consumption. Industry and transportation is the base of economic development and depends upon sustainable access to hydrocarbons.
Oil, Gas and Coal is significant source of energy but now the consumption, production and extraction of oil go beyond the economics. They are profoundly political.
It is seen in history of politics that oil has played a key role. In the context of the war on terror, the U.S. presence in Afghanistan and Iraq has led to questions, about the extent to which securing access to oil has motivated these conflicts and U.S. foreign policy even more.72
Middle East is the geographic centre of gravity of world oil industry. Petroleum became more a reason of war than of peace. In today’s world oil is power.
In Middle East there is believed to be more than half of the oil reserves of the world.73 Oil, was discovered in Persia at Masjid Sulaiman by British Company led by William D’ Arey on March 11, 1910. Oil was found in Egypt at Gulf of Suez which is also popularly known as Gemsa Oil field, this field was originally discovered in 1969 at the shore of the southern province.
In June 27, 1927 oil was also discovered in region of Iraq at Kirkuk. After Iraq, oil was discovered in the region of Saudi Arabia in the year 1933. In Saudi Arabia Ghawdar oil field possesses over half of the oil of Saudi Arabia which is owned by state-run oil company Saudi Aramco.74
Western economies remain dependent on import of oil, of which the Saudi fields are an important source, it is also a point of notice that despite of Saudi Arabia’s softness towards Islamic extremism, we cannot ignore that out of nineteen, fifteen hijackers
Maulana Azad Library, Aligarh Muslim University
72 Mary Ann Tetreault, Political economy of Middle Eastern oil https://books.google.com&books>aboutX https://www.minner.com>uploads accessed on18 Oct 2017.
73 Halbord L. Hoskins, The Contemporary Middle East: The Middle East Problem Area in the World, The Macmillan Company New York – 1954, pp. 189-196 74 https://www.timelost.com accessed on 8 Nov 2017
21 Chapter -1
were Saudi in 9/11 attack. Robert Vitalis illustrates that security of oil is the basis of the U.S. Saudi relationship.75
Due to several wars and political conditions the oil export came to halt which led to chaos in the western countries. Some of the events are the Arab-Israeli war which led to ban in oil export to the United States in November 1973 and because of this oil price increased along with gas price which rose to more than a dollar per gallon from 25 cents. Later on march 17, 1974 all Arab ministers except Libya announced end of oil embargo on United States. This embargo lead to huge economic loss (stock exchange loss). Another historical event that led to oil crises in United States was Iranian revolution. This revolution resulted into political instability which led to high oil prices and shortage of gas. The Iran-Iraq war that lasted up to 7 years had also resulted into scarcity of oil due to halt in production.76
The importance of oil and natural gas has ignored the significance of other natural resources found in the region like Chromate, Phosphate, Asbestos, Copper and Iron etc.
About ninety-nine percent of the region’s oil is deposited in a circumventing belt around the Persian Gulf, oil is preserved either in limestone or sandstone structure. In Iran and Saudi Arabia the oil beds are lime stone while in Kuwait the oil is deposited in sand stone rock.
Along with oil, natural gas is also an important resource of West Asia. This region is blessed with more than 30% of world proven reserves of natural gas.77
Below is the list of oil field in Middle East which makes this region the biggest producer of oil.
1. Ghawar – (Saudi Arabia) 2. Burgan – (Kuwait) 3. Safaniya – (Saudi Arabia) Maulana4. Rumaila Azad – (Iraq) Library, Aligarh Muslim University 5. West Qurna – 2 (Iraq)78
75 Simon Henderson, Middle East Quarterly Spring 2007, pp. 57-62 www.meforum.org accessed on 17 Oct 2017 76 http:// www.timetost.com accessed on19 Oct 2017 77 West Asia: An Introduction op. cit., pp. 16-19.
22 Chapter -1
Gas and oil basins and fields
There are more than 65,000 oil and gas basin and fields of all sizes in the world. Around 94% of oil fields which are known are concentrated in fewer than 1500 giant and major fields. Most of world’s largest oil fields are located in Middle East in Abu Dhabi UAE, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and Saudi Arabia.79
Oil was even used a political weapon by Arabs. The present geopolitical and strategic importance of the Middle East is the result of its petroleum and hydrocarbons. Petroleum industry is the backbone of almost all states in the area.80
Middle East has been dominated by the great power struggle over control of the special strategically significant economic advantages of oil extracted from this region. Oil has never been the only reason behind the situation and interference of west in the region of Middle East.
The economic potential also depends on it being at economic-strategic crossroad of Eurasia.81 As it is the tri-juncture of three continents Africa, Asia and Europe.82 Some of the recent crises in the Middle East were associated with either a threat to or disruption of oil supplies.83
The passes in the Sea that connects the two side of the world plays an important role in geo-strategic relations as it is the connecting area. These are the choke points that are vital for global strategic interest and movement of oil and Gas.
1. Suez Canal 2. Turkish straits – Dardenelles, sea of Marmara and the Bosphorous 3. Hormuz Strait 4. Bab- al-Mandeb 5. Gibraltar.84
Maulana Azad Library, Aligarh Muslim University
78 oilprice.com accessed on 20 Oct 2017 79 petrowiki.org.18Feb2015, accessed on 20 Oct 2017 80Naji Abi Aad and Michel Grenon. op. cit., p. 5 81 https://www.larouchepub.com accessed on 19 Oct 2017 82 West Asia: An Introduction op. cit., p. 1 83Naji Abi Aad and Michel Grenon. op. cit., p. 5 84 https://cos/gmu.edu>ggs sites8/2015 accessed on 20 Oct 2017
23 Chapter -1
The present geopolitical and strategic importance of the Middle East is especially the result of its petroleum resources, the foreign powers become engaged in the affairs of Middle East to defend the threats to their interests. In context of United States the major factors for involvement were:
- To have control over Gulf, and
- Protection of Israel - To protect Gulf Arab states – There is internal rivalry among Arab states like Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq. The rivalry is for supremacy in region.85
The unofficial reasons why the U.S. led the invasion of Iraq in 2003 are equally important as the reason of possession of weapons of mass destruction. The unofficial reason was the message or demonstration of United States to the world as well as to the enemy about their powers and capability of changing regime which goes against United States. That time it was Saddam Hussein to rule out any appearance of weakness following 9/11. This consideration is motivated by Realism, and according to Daniel Lieberfeld’s explanatory perspective the Iraq invasion was meant to “maintain unipolarity, hegemony and to avail post – 9/11 decline by demonstrating U.S. willingness to use force.86
The United States and its allies in the Middle East is basically for monitoring the region due to its geographical closeness from Russia and China, and to control over oil of the region, to look after the passes and routes, containment of nuclear weapons by the so called “rogue states” as called by United States and protection of its friend states – the Saudi Arabia and Israel.
Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy generally revolves around two main objectives an alliance with U.S. and rivalry with Iran, U.S. and Saudi alliance is largely based on oil, as U.S is the largest importer of Saudi oil.87
MaulanaIndustries Azad Library, Aligarh Muslim University Different West Asian countries are known for their different manufacturing industries e.g. - aluminum based industries are being setup in Bahrain. The Bahrain Aluminum
85Naji Abi Aad and Michel Grenon. op. cit., pp. 8-9. 86, www.e-ir.info accessed on 20 Oct 2017 87 https://publicpolicy.wharton.upper.edu, 23 March 2016, accessed on 23 Oct 2016
24 Chapter -1
company (BALEXCO) operates a plant which trade almost exclusively with members of the Gulf Co-operation council.
Iraq had constructed steel and petrochemical complex near Khor al-Zubair. Iraq had also developed the satellite industry.
The other West Asian country that had actually developed high technology products based on its own scientific creativity and technical innovation is Israel.88 The agricultural development and water recycling process of Israel is well known to the world. Region’s first petrochemical industry was set up in Egypt and Israel at Suez and Haifa. The Gulf has emerged as world’s leading centre of petrochemical industry.89
Libya’s petrochemical industry produces methanol, ammonia and Urea. In Iran steel and many more industrial and chemical products are produced along with agricultural and handicraft products.90 Middle East is also famous for their textile products. Persia and Turkey are world famous for carpets and rugs.91
So, apart from oil, of which Middle East is the biggest producer, industries are also a major means of economy and development. However, this sector is not developing properly due to unskilled labour, non-availability of raw material, inadequate transportation and last but not the least, ignorance.98
Iran
Iran is the second largest economy in the Middle East and North African region after Saudi Arabia with an estimated Gross domestic product (GDP) in 2016 of US $ 412.2 billion. Iran’s economy is characterized by the hydrocarbon sector, agriculture and service sector. Iran ranked second in world in natural gas reserves and fourth in proven crude oil. The economic activity and government revenues still depend to a
Maulana Azad Library, Aligarh Muslim University
88 West Asia: An introduction op. cit., p. 22 89Charles Issawi, An Economic history of Middle East and North Africa, 2013. http://books.google.co.in>book accessed on 17 Nov 2017 90 www.nationaencyclopedia.com accessed on 17Nov 2017. 91 West Asia: An introduction op. cit., pp. 21-20.
25 Chapter -1
large extent on oil revenues and therefore remain volatile.92 Iran had been an Islamic theocracy since the Pahlavi monarchy was overthrown on Feb. 11, 1979.93
The 1953 coup eliminated the national front and Tudeh party and established a pro- western dictatorship that lasted until 1963.94
Reza Shah diverted his regimes social base from political and religious establishment to white revolution or revolution of Shah and people. His agenda was to achieve the following six goals.
1. Land reforms 2. Sale of some state owned factories to finance the land reform 3. The enfranchisement of women 4. Nationalization of forest and pastures 5. Formation of literary corps 6. Institution for profit sharing for workers in industry.
Most appreciated among all above was land reform and women’s vote.95
Islamic Revolution of 1979
Despite all those reforms and economical growth, there was much opposition against Mohammad Reza Shah. He used the secret police, the Savak to control the country. Strong religious population was against Shah and there was situation of civil war.96 The opposition was led by Ayatollah Khomeini who lived in exile in Iraq and later in France.
On January 16, 1976, Shah left Iran and Ayatollah Khomeini retuned to Iran on February 1 and hundreds of supporters of Shah were executed.
Ayatollah Khomeini declared an Islamic republic with a new constitution reflecting the ideas of Islamic government. In 1979 November 4 Iranian Islamic students took over the U.S. embassy taking 52 people as hostage out of which 14 were released Maulanabefore the Azad end of November. Library, Aligarh Muslim University
92 www.worldbankk.org?>country,Iran accessed on 25 Oct 2017 93 http://www.infoplease.com>country>Iran accessed on 25 oct 2017 94 Homa Katouzian, Politics, History and Literature –2013 https://booksgoogle.co.in accessed on 26 Oct 2017 95 http//coldwarstudies.com accessed on 26 Oct 2017. 96 www.iranchamber.com History of Iran accessed on 27 Oct 2017
26 Chapter -1
In November the republic’s first Prime Minister Mehdi Bazargan resigned. In 1980 Abolhassan Bani-Sadr was elected President. Meanwhile due to internal political instability and conflicts Iraq took advantage and invaded Iran in belief that Iran is too weak militarily to fight back. On January 20, 1981 the hostages were released after long negotiations.103
The Iranian revolution was the most remarkable event of modern history. It had changed the dynamics of Middle East and this revolution had played the role of fuel in the animosity between Muslim world and West.97,98
IRAN’S NUCLEAR PROGRAMME
We are not questioning [the Iranian’s] right to civil nuclear power… but because of a track record of 18 year in which they were not clear and not transparent with the international atomic energy agency, that civil nuclear power cannot include the ability to enrich and reprocess on Iranian territory, because when you learn to do that, you have learned the key technology of making a nuclear weapon.
U.S. secretary of state Condoleezza Rice said on April 19, 2003. The nuclear programme of Iran was so advanced that on April 17,2004 CNN ran a story titled “ Iran rushing to build Nuke bomb, it further stated that Iran will complete its first nuclear bomb in between one year” there was a report by the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRT) which states that “the nuclear weapons programme is look after by a special military unit functioning secretly outside the Iranian atomic energy organization and remains under the personal supervision of the Ayatollah Ali Khomeini, Iran’s supreme religious ruler”.
Iran’s secret nuclear weapons research activities were flourishing at Natanz and Arak. It is speculated that their nuclear development is supported by Pakistan, North Korea and it is also expected that there were Russian centrifuges involved in programme. Dr. Nic Von Willing, the South African scientist who was involved in numerous meeting Maulanaof the Board of Azad Governors Library, and the general Aligarh conference of IAEAMuslim between 1992 University and 2002 stated that Tehran was invariably near the top of the list at annual Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) meeting.
97 thelogicalindian.com accessed on 20 Nov 2017 98Alireza Jafarzadeh, The Iran Threat, (Palgrave MacMillan New York, 2007) Chapter 8, p. 155
27 Chapter -1
On October 31, IAEA had given deadline to allow nuclear inspectors “full and free” access to all its facilities after which inspection began in 2003. Though Iran had concluded a comprehensive safeguards agreement with the IAEA (international atomic energy agency) far back in December 1974 being one of the first countries to sign (Nuclear) Non-proliferation treaty (NPT) but during the investigation the discovery of nuclear receptors was clearly the violation of the requirements of the safeguard agreement.
U.S. believed that Tehran is having clandestine nuclear weapons programme which is violation of NPT (Nuclear non-proliferation treaty) but Iran tried to justify its use for civilian nuclear energy programme and development.
In august 2002 it became known to world that Iran is building a heavy water production plant and a nuclear fuel plant, later it became clear fuel plant was most likely a large uranium centrifuge enrichment facility located at Natanz.99
A new nuclear power station including two nuclear reactors was dedicated during a festive ceremony in the southern port city of Busheher in Iran.100
Iran’s key nuclear sites are located at-
Arak – Heavy water reactor and production plant
Gachin – Uranium enrichment plant
Parchin – Military site
Qom – Uranium enrichment plant101
In May 1993, the U.S President Clinton announced a new policy to contain two countries. Iran and Iraq According to their policy these two counties are threat to U.S. interests in Middle East.
Its objective was to apply sufficient international diplomatic and economic pressure Maulanaon Iran Azad specially inLibrary, attaining the nAligarhuclear weapons Muslim but after 1997, University U.S. officials stopped using the term dual containment.102
99Al J. Venter, Iran’s Nuclear Option: Tehran’s Quest for the Atom Bomb, Casemate Publishers, 2005, p. 1,2,3,4,17,19 100 www.jpost.com Iran news Middle East-Jerusalem post accessed on 31-10-2017. 101 www.bbc.com accessed on 6 Nov 2017
28 Chapter -1
Today’s U.S. administration under Donald Trump has cancelled the Obama administration’s nuclear deal with Iran.
IRAQ
Iraq a triangle of Mountains, descents, and fertile river valley, is bounded on the east by Iran, on the north by Turkey on the south by Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. The country has arid desert land. There is the central valley between the river Euphrates and the Tigris. From ages Iraq was known as Mesopotamia- the land between the rivers part of alluvial plains. It has large Tigris and Euphrates River.103
After the defeat of the Ottoman Empire during World War I, Britain gained control of the area, later the land of Mesopotamia became Iraq.104
Iraq, the land which occupies the area of earliest known civilization became a battle ground for competing forces after the U.S. led ouster of President Saddam Hussein in 2003.
The constant instability and sabotage have hindered efforts to rebuild an economy shattered by decades of conflicts and sanctions even though Iraq has the world’s second largest reserves of crude oil.
Political development and Major events in Iraq
On March 22, 1945 Iraq became the founding member of the Arab league. On September 22, 1980 Iraq haunches an air attack against Iran, there starting the Iran- Iraq war. The war ended in 1988. On August 1990 – Iraq invaded Kuwait, later on 17 January 1991 operation desert storm began. On Feb. 28, 1991, a cease fire in Gulf took place. On April 3, 1991 UN passed Security Council resolution 687. It established UNSCOM. In 1991 sanctions were imposed, weapons inspections were done, it became no fly zone.
In 2003 U.S. led coalition invaded, starting years of guerilla warfare and instability. In Maulana2014 the armed AzadIslamic state Library, group emerges asAligarh major force in Muslim the region, it look University over major parts of Iraq and became threat to region.105
102 www.encyclopedia.com>humanities dual containment accessed on 8 Nov 2017 103 www.infoplease.com>country>Iraq accessed on 28 Oct 2017 104 cnn.com updated 9 Oct 2017 accessed on 28 Oct 2017
29 Chapter -1
Oil
The abundance of oil and natural gas, the high level of income and consumption and market for investment has made this region “highly contested”.106 Many critics of the war such as the political scholars Paul Pollar, Stephen Walt and Johan Mearsheimer generally disagree that the war was about oil. Federal reserve chairman Alan Greenspan said that he told to the White House before the Iraq war that removing Saddam Hussein was “essential to secure world oil supplies”.107
More than that long before in 1980 Jan 23, Jimmy Carter in this state of union address, expressed “let our position be absolutely clear, an attempt by any outside post to gain control of the Persian Gulf region will be regarded an assault on the vital interests of the United States of America, and such an assault will be repelled by any means necessary including military force.108
The most important goal of United States in Gulf is to secure uninterrupted flow of oil at a reasonable price and in sufficient quantities to meet its requirement and those of its allies.109
Iraq’s Nuclear Reactors
Iraq today has no active nuclear chemical or biological ballistic missile program and is a member of all relevant non-proliferation treaties and regions. Though under the leadership of former President Saddam Hussein, Iraq was reported to have started programmes of weapons of mass destruction but due to international pressure it had dismantled its weapons of mass destruction programme. Iraq had used chemical weapon in attacks against military and civilian targets during the Iraq-Iran war.
In 2003 U.S. led invasion and occupation of Iraq happened. Later it was concluded that Iraq had abandoned its nuclear biological and chemical weapons programmes after the 1991 Gulf war. Maulana Azad Library, Aligarh Muslim University
105 cnn.com accessed on 2 Nov 2017 106Anwar Alam, Contemporary West Asia: Politics and Development, New Century Publications, 2010, p. 4 107 bbc.com accessed on 17 Nov 2017 108Toby Craig Jones, American, Oil and War in the Middle East Published on 1 June 2012, pp. 208-218 https:// academic.oup.com accessed on 23Oct 2017 109 www.tandfonline.com>doi>abs accessed on 23Oct 2017
30 Chapter -1
Iraq started pursuing a biological warfare (BW) programme in the 1970s. Iraq’s biological research covered lethal, incapacitating and anti-plant agents including botulism toxin, bacillus anthracis (anthrax), aflatoxin, ricin, clostridium perfringens, hemorrhagic conjunctivitis virus, human rotavirus, comeplor virus, mycotoxins and wheat cover smut. The Iraq survey group determined that Iraq had dismantled its biological weapons programme in 1990. In chemical weapons, Iraq possessed large stock piles of the blister agent mustard and the nerve agent tabun, sarin, cyclosarin and VX.110
The nuclear site in Iraq was known as al-Atheer complex located 20 miles south west of Iraq, for the development of weapons of mass destruction, al-Tuwaitha nuclear centre near Baghdad and Osirak research centre which also called in Iran as Tammuz.111
ISRAEL
The country is situated in the Middle East with a coast line at the Mediterranean Sea and a small outline in south of the Gulf of Aqaba (Red Sea). Israel is bordered by Egypt. Jordan, Lebanon, Syria and the Palestinian territories (West Bank and Gaza strip) it also shares maritime borders with Cyprus.112 It has Negev desert in south, the mountain ranges of the Galilee Carmel and the Golan.
The modern state of Israel was bounded by United Nations resolution in 1948 as a result of Zionism a political and cultural movement, whose aim was to bring Jewish people to the land of Israel where they could rule themselves and be saved from anti- Semitism.
Israel has welcomed million of Jewish immigrants from all over the world. All Jews who settled in Israel are entitled to citizenship under the law of Return.113 Since 1945 every state in the area has been involved in atleast one war. The core conflict has, inevitably, been the Arab-Israeli struggle. Israel was up to 1979, a normative factor in Maulanaforeign policy for Azad every state Library, in the area. Aligarh Muslim University
110 www.nit.org update – July 2017. Accessed on 27 Oct 2017 111 http://fas.org?guide>Iraq PDF accessed on 15 Nov 2017 112 www.nationsonline.org Israel accessed on 20 Nov 2017 113 https//www.myjewishlearning.com accessed on 20 Nov 2017
31 Chapter -1
The long list of military conflicts tells us that Middle East had more than its share of military violence and for sure invested more of its human and material resource to defence and war-making than have many other regions of the developed world. Countries of West Asia like Turkey Egypt, Iraq Syria and specially Israel have been developing and producing a wide range of armaments. Infact, Iran, Iraq, Syria and Turkey have been working to develop “Civilian” nuclear programmes.114 Even, Saudi Arabia recently announced its plan to extract uranium domestically as a part of its nuclear power programme and calls it a step towards self sufficiency in production of atomic fuel.
World’s top oil exporter country says it wants to adopt atomic programme for peaceful purposes and will started constructing its first two nuclear reactors by the end of 2018.115
This race of acquiring nuclear arms is actually to attain regional supremacy and international prestige on the other hand we can’t deny the fact of threat of Israel.
It is doubtful whether the Arab-Israeli conflict can be localized, both because of its central geographical location and of the accumulating arsenals of unconventional weaponry in Middle East.116
The state of Israel is situated in a high conflict region. This newly born state has developed advance military capabilities. It possesses sizable arsenal of short and medium range ballistic and cruise missiles and is working towards multi-layered and comprehensive missile defence capability.
In the year 1950 David Ben-Gurion, Israel’s first Prime Minister established the nuclear weapon programme with French assistance to counter threat from its Arab neighbours, the base of programme is centered at the Negev nuclear research centre.
Israel is believed to have manufactured around 840 Kg of weapons grade plutonium, enough for an estimated arsenal of 100-200 nuclear war heads. Since 1960s Israel had Maulanadeveloped Azad the region Library, most advance missileAligarh manufacturing Muslim base and Universitynow developed the region most advance ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and missile defence system.
114 Naji Abi Aad and Michel Grenon, op. cit., pp. 49-51 115 timesofindia.com 30 Oct 2017 accessed on 1 Nov 2017 116 Steven L. Spiegel, Conflict Management in Middle East, Westview Press, 1992, p. 253
32 Chapter -1
Due to threat from state and non-state actors, Israel had developed a layered and multi-faceted approach to both offensive and defensive missile technology acquisition.117
Throughout the 60s Israel flatly denied the existence of the underground reprocessing plant in Dimona that was churning out plutonium for bombs. Israel refused the visits by IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency).
Maulana Azad Library, Aligarh Muslim University
117 www.nti.org accessed on 5 Nov 2017.
33
Chapter -2 Reasons behind instability in the Region
Maulana Azad Library, Aligarh Muslim University Chapter -2
CHAPTER -2
REASONS BEHIND INSTABILITY IN THE REGION
It is unfortunate reality of the land of Middle East that it became known to the world and got the attention of the world media more because of its bloodshed, wars, occupation, terrorism and tragedies then for peace and development.
The classic mantra of journalism “if bleeds, it leads”- suits on Middle East and no doubt Middle East till today is the region of attraction for print and electronic media.1 It is hard to trace the period of stability rather it is an unending list of massacres, coups, violence and wars in the region of West Asia.
Terrorism, guerilla wars, interstate rivalry etc had always given limelight to the region but the real event (incident) that changed the history, governments, political system and new vision towards Middle East apart from oil is 9/11 attack on world trade centre and Pentagon. The September 11, 2002 attack on World Trade Centre, New York and Pentagon, Washington which had not only shaken United States but had forced the whole world to think about the term “terrorism” in a big way.2 Studies have shown that United States had played vital role in flourishing terrorist camps and giving training to the disturbing elements and extremist groups for its personal interests.3
Non-state actors
Josselin and Wallace propose that non-state actors should include organizations that are largely or entirely autonomous from central government funding and control, and emanate from civil society or the market economy or from ‘political impulses’ beyond the control of the state. It also includes organizations that operate as, or participate in networks that extend the boundaries of two or more state, thus engaging in transnational relation, linking political systems economies and societies. Finally, it Maulanaincludes Azadorganizations Library, that seek to affect Aligarh political out comesMuslim either within University one or more states or with in International institutions.
1 Jillian Schwedler and Deborah J. Gerner , Understanding The Contemporary Middle East, third edition, Lynne Rienner Publishers, 2008, p.2 2 Raphael Israeli. War, Peace and Terror in the Middle East, Routledge Publisher, 2014, p.11 3 Ibid., p.12
34 Chapter -2
Arat offers an indicative list of the sorts of organizations that may constitute non-state actors. This includes organized opposition to government, some of which may be engaged in armed struggle; private enterprises engaged in trade, finance, manufacturing and service provision, professional, business and labour organizations, aid and development organizations, the media religious institutions, and organizations, people’s tribunals and less formal groups such as families, ad hoc and spontaneous groups, religious, ethnic and neighbourhood communities, street gangs and underground organizations such as the mafia, mercenaries and militia groups.
Since 2011, the non-state actors have assumed increasing significance in social and political life across the Middle East. Infact, they played a crucial role in movements that brought about the demise of autocratic governments in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen.
In Tunisia, the uprising against the regime of Zain al-Abdine Ben Ali was initiated by youth protestors later supported by the trade union federation the UGTT (Tunisian general labour union), the Bar association, legal as well as illegal political parties along with Islamists of al-Nahda. Later in Egypt the protest was started by young people through internet (social media) by the page named “we are all Khaled said” and “April 6 movement” but it got the real kick when non state actors joined the movement including labour activists, youth wing of political parties of both ideologies secular as well as Islamists which led to the biggest revolution of the current age and demise of Mubarak’s rule. Libya too had faced the same political instability by the anti Gaddafi movement which was joined by business interests, tribals, Islamists and many more like Egypt, here also people and parties of all ideologies stood together against Gaddafi’s regime, along with internal revolts the external forces have played vital role here and led to an end of a very long and monotonous Gaddafi regime. Yemen too became the part of revolution happening in the region, here again youth organization initiated the revolt which was supported and Maulanaactively participated Azad by non Library,-state actors and differentAligarh political Muslim parties and ideological University groups seeking for greater autonomy or independence from Saleh regime in Sana (Yemen).
When we are talking about the non state actors we cannot skip ISIS which have become the headache for Middle East and has raised an alarm for the whole world,
35 Chapter -2
specially for the West. ISIS came into existence in December 2013 and took over the Sunni majority cities of Fallujah and Ramada. ISIS has its roots in Al-Qaida, Iraq (AQI) but after U.S. invasion this group vanished as Al-Qaida and its association with Saddam Hussein, as claimed by United States, had led to invasion by United States of Iraq and resulted into an end of Al-Qaida in Iraq.
In 2013 this group again came on surface by name and extreme cruel face of ISIS with its head named Abu- Bakr al Baghdadi, which not only created anarchy, bloodshed, and instability in the country but crossed all heights of cruelty in the name of religion (Islam). ISIS entered in Syria too and occupied in Syrian territories and in April 2013 the group became ISIS Islamic state of Syria and Iraq and declared a global Islamic Caliphate and renamed it Islamic state. Along with ISIS there are many active non-state actors in region, they, however, are anti ISIS to counter the expansion of ISIS these are
1) Dwekh Nawsha – an armed Assyrian Christian group
2) Sinjar Resistance Units (SRU)
3) Yazdi Militia which emerged against the ISIS takeover of the Sinjar province.
The SRU have been supported and trained by the Kurdish people’s party (PPK).
The Shia Militias are backed by Iran to fight against ISIS. Fighting against ISIS indirectly led to the sence of insecurity in population which resulted into fertile ground for Sunni militia (ISIS). According to U.S. intelligence report, by February 2014, there were between 75,000 and 115,000 anti-regime insurgents organized in 1,500 armed groups of widely varying political orientations, anti-regime non-state actors in Syria, including Islamist and non-Islamist elements. However, there were divisions on the basis of the extreme violence like ISIS and other militias such as Jabhat al-Nusra and Ahrar al-Sham.
MaulanaIn 2014, Azadit was estimated Library, that ISIS, JabhatAligarh al-Nusra Muslimand Ahrar al-S hamUniversity had 26,000 members, including 1,200 foreign fighters of whom 1,000 were Europeans and 100 were U.S. citizens.
In 2013, a number of Islamist militias set up the Islamic front and moved to evict ISIS from areas of Syria under its control. Islamic front has good and bad relations with
36 Chapter -2
Jabhat al-Nusra. There is free Syria army (FSA) which was formed in August 2011 by army defectors to fight against Assad regime. It consists of number of disparate armed groups some secular and some Islamist in orientation.
Hamas in Palestine and Hezbollah in Lebanon, each of these non-state actors have enjoyed the support of Syria and Iran. The UAE and Qatar have backed conflicting sides in Libya. Saudi Arabia, several Gulf States, Turkey and Iran also have been associated with different armed groups in the Syrian conflict. Iran supports Shia militia fighting against ISIS in Iraq and supports the Houthis in Yemen in the face of Saudi opposition.4
Most commentators have described it as ‘youth revolutions, because, the young generation played a key role in organizing the initial street protests though the social media in Tunisia, Egypt, Jordan, Syria and Saudi Arabia. Some view them in terms of revolutions of the multitude - a kind of post modern revolt, diffused and leaderless with no fixed ideologies, while some characterize them as liberal revolution, others contend that they represent revolts against the liberal economies that had adversely affected the Arab societies since the 1990s’.
The Arab revolts are also seen as secular democratic upheavals, a position that challenges those (including the supporters of the troubled Arab regimes, the Iranian Islamist leaders and al-Qaida, as well as some in the U.S. republican, a pro- Israeli groups) who claim them to be inspired by Islam or Islamist politics.5
Arab spring has caused political upheaval in the Middle East that has brought about regime change in countries such as Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen and could end minority rule in Bahrain and Syria.6
The Arab spring has predominantly been a popular uprising against repressive authoritarianism.7 Larry Diamond’s prediction ahead of the Arab spring now sounds almost prophetic. Is the Arab world simply condemned to an indefinite future of Maulanaauthoritarian rule? Azad I do not Library,think so… opinion Aligarh surveys suggest Muslim that they clearly University want more, and new social media tools such as Facebook, Twitter, the blogosphere, and the
4 www.iemed.org.>anuarismed2015 accessed on 20 Nov 2017 5 Are Knudsen and Basem Ezbidi. Popular Protest in the new Middle East, I.B. Tauris Publisher, 2014, p.xv 6 Ibid., p.2 7 Ibid., p.3
37 Chapter -2
phone-mobile revolution are giving Arabs new opportunities to express themselves and to mobilize.
However most of political scientists missed the Arab spring and predicted a continuation of authoritarian regimes.8
Islamist Movements
Islamist movements can be divided into three -
1. The ‘militant’
2. The ‘nationalist’
3. The ‘quietist’ which eschew violence out of three later two take part in elections.9
Arab spring has caused several countries to review their election systems” Egypt, Tunisia, Jordan and Yemen as well as the Palestinian authority are planning to change their electoral systems.10
The constant war, weak government, hatred for west, occupation, attacks, sense of insecurity internal rivalries, and power vacuum had led to the birth of non-state actors. The non-state actors in Syria led to loss of at least 200,000 lives to date and 3, Millions people are estimated to have fled to neighbouring countries while a further 6.5 million are internally displaced. When Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan, the U.S. intervened to reduce the influence of communism in the region. To achieve this goal U.S. collaborated with local leaders and provided logistic support and training to Islamic leaders in the area. It is surprising but true that Osama Bin Laden was recruited and trained by U.S. to counter USSR.11
The emergence of non-state actors with the strong financial muscle and organizational capacity has in a way shaped the politics of the region and the fate of the locals.
MaulanaThese groups Azad have changed Library, their names Aligarh from time to time.Muslim University
8 Ibid., p.7 9 Ibid., p.11 10 Ibid., p.12 11 Duaa Binzafran. The Effect of Non-State Actors on Middle East Politics – A thesis presented to faculty of California State University Chicago, 2016, p.2
38 Chapter -2
The common non-state actors are
4) Al-Qaida
5) The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt
6) Hezbollah in Lebanon
7) Taliban
8) ISIS12
Infact many of western countries like U.S, Britain, France, Belgium and Kenya were targeted by these groups (non-state actors) as a protest against supporting Israel. Intelligence reports had showed that Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran and Jordan are supporting the non-state actors. Even the Al-Qaida chief Osama bin Laden was hidden in Pakistan in Abbottabad where he was encountered by U.S. Marines.13
Now ISIS has created instability and fear in the region it had controlled oil fields, wells and trade routes. The growth of non-state actors in Middle East such as al- Qaida, ISIS, Muslim brotherhood and Hezbollah has created global concern,14 the most common thing among all is Islam.
As the land of Middle East is the birth place of three main religions – Islam, Judaism and Christianity among which Islam is the most dominant and influential in the region the non-state actors gain support and sympathy. Islam has been used as a cover for their political agendas.15
Sence of insecurity by creation of Israel, weak government and the eyes of world specially West on Middle Eastern oil is also an important factors for the creation of non-state actors. If we do profound study on the creation of non-state actors most of them are actually flourished on the fertile ground created by the great powers specially United States. Its examples are –
MaulanaAl-Qaida – The Azadorigin of al -Library,Qaida is associated Aligarh with U.S. and Muslim Soviet Union rivalryUniversity in Afghanistan in 1980s where USSR (todays Russia) undivided Russia desired to
12 Ibid., p.3 13 Ibid., p.5 14 Ibid., p.6 15 Ibid., p.7
39 Chapter -2
control Eastern Europe and the Middle East it had taken control over the countries like Kazakhstan and others in the region. In Afghanistan USSR got tough fight by an armed rebellion by Arab forces under the leadership of Osama bin Laden, interestingly, the U.S. and Pakistan who later became most effected by Al-Qaida supported this armed group as a campaign against communism.16
Al-Qaida was supported by U.S. in other missions too but it turned into a very active terrorist group which later became biggest threat for its allies. Pakistani intelligence agency supported Pashtun Jihadi group against India this group had assisted al-Qaida in Afghanistan to fight against USSR.17
Taliban – having the most respectable meaning ‘student’ who is meant to learn is used in the worst sense. This group is also the outcome of US- Pak alliance against USSR:18 Talibans are based in Afghanistan specially near Pakistan – Afghanistan border. Talibans emerged in the early 1990s in northern Pakistan in early 1990s in northern Pakistan following the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan. Started as Pashtun Movement, it came to notice in 1994. It is assumed that Taliban’s are born and grown up by Saudi Arabia’s money and backing to preach hard line Islamic teaching (Salafi) these teachings are given in camps and Madarsas. By 1998 90% of Afghanistan was under control of Taliban. Attacks on Malala Yousufzae, destruction of Buddha statue in Baamiyan and frequent attacks on Sunni Shrines and Shia mosques, suicide bombings and attack in church during Easter celebration gave worldwide criticism to them. The U.S. is keeping close to 10,000 troops in Afghanistan, but the Taliban finds itself an increasingly splintered organization that is also threatened by the rise of the so, called Islamic state militant group in Afghanistan.19
Recently on Jan 25, 2017 Taliban had released open letter to President Trump to withdraw U.S. forces from Afghanistan.20
MaulanaThe change Azad of events Library, in the region hadAligarh created a vacuum Muslim of operation University for non-state actors most countries in the Middle East including Iran, Iraq, Palestine, Syria and
16 Ibid., p.8 17Ibid., p.9 18Ibid., p.10 19 www.bbc.com accessed on 25 Nov 2017 20 http//edition.cnn.com accessed on 26 Nov 2017
40 Chapter -2
Lebanon have secretly funded the organizations to advance their political war against what they believe to be Western imperialism.
Global politics – The removal of Saddam Hussein had created the power vacuum and chaos in state specially Shia-Sunni schisms despite controlling and being in Iraq for 9 years United States failed to create law and order and security of state and left Iraq by handing it to Shiite regime which created a sense of insecurity and exclusion in Sunni population.
This Shiite government was weak enough to control the chaos in the state21 which has resulted into formation of the Iraqi Al-Qaida and the monstrous group, the Islamic state of Iraq.
Going back in history the two rival countries Iraq and America had enjoyed a very close relationship. During 1980s Hussein and President Ronald Reagan had close ties, with the U.S. sending Donald Rumsfeld, the defense secretary, as a special envoy to the country. Hussein’s relationship and support for terrorists were also in public knowledge but did not prevent the two countries from working together.22
The two countries followed the old proverb “The enemy of my enemy is my friend” and their common enemy was Iran. Even United States supported military campaign in Iran by military intelligence, financial and covert support.
Phases of development of terrorism in Middle East:
1. The Muslim Brotherhood and Fidayeen-e-Islam based in Iran (1978-1982)
2. Islamic Revolution in Iran since 1979. The attacks in public places e.g. attack on Rex cinema in Abadan in which around 400 people died
3. 1991-9/11, 2001 birth of mujahidin in Afghanistan and influx of experienced & well trained guerilla fighters.
MaulanaThe two main terroristAzads Hassan Library, al Banna andAligarh Osama bin LadenMuslim are production University of West. Hassan al Banna was allegedly a British agent who gave a new turn to terrorism. While Osama Bin Laden was a CIA agent Qutubism is believed to have
21 Duaa Binzafran. op. cit., p.12 22 Ibid., p.13
41 Chapter -2
motivated the formation of Al-Qaida U.S tops the list of countries which made foreign affairs mistakes that have led to the rise of Islamic extremism in Middle East.
After the fall of Saddam Hussein regime the new leadership failed to improve the status of the locals and fulfilling the expectations that created the ruthless terrorists such as Islamic state.
The Islamic state of Iraq and Levant was established in 1999 by a Jordanian terrorist who shared radical ideologies with Osama Bin Laden and other Al-Qaida leaders in the Middle East in the name of Jihad against western interest. This group parted from Al-Qaida in 2014 after invasion of Iraq and Syria however both walk on the ideology of terrorism in the name of Islam. They believed in establishing Islamic state and believe Imam Mehdi (leader chosen by Allah (God)) as it is in Islamic faith is coming soon to form caliphate across the world. This group has declared war against all non- Islamic sects which include along with Christian and Jew, the Yazdis and Shia sect of Muslims. Other than that they also targeted Westerners and innocent media. In short all non-Muslims and pro-West and even the moderate Muslims like Sufi followers were their soft target. They declared Abu- Bakr Al- Baghdadi as their head to whom his followers considered a Caliph. No doubt this group is counted among one of most cruel and brutal organizations. It is one of the richest non-state actors with net asset of over 2 billion dollars.
The aim of terrorist groups is to convince governments or opposing groups by causing attacks, damages and bloodshed this is known as attrition strategy while Intimidation strategy is used by the terrorist to destroy the belief of government that it is strong as compared to them.23
Factors responsible for creation of non-state actors in Middle East
1. Balfour declaration of 1917 which led to creation of Israel in 1948.
Maulana2. Soviet Azad invasion Library,in Afghanistan Aligarh Muslim University 3. Discovery of oil and western control on oil fields.
4. Desire of non-state actors to be in politics.
23Ibid., pp. 14-27
42 Chapter -2
5. Political instability in Lebanon.
6. The first and second Gulf war.
7. Political turmoil
The two groups which emerged in the region were Afghan Marxists and native Afghan Mujahedeen. Afghan Marxists supported the Soviet invasion of the country and Afghan Mujahedeen become non-state militants and with the support of U.S. and Pakistan gave a big fight to Soviet Union. This was the period of friendship between Osama the head of Al-Qaida and USA. Osama found the region of Afghanistan suitable for expansion of terrorist organization and proper training. Here, he was welcomed by another radical group Taliban, which was ruling the state of Afghanistan. Uptill then U.S. had completely ignored the expansion and activities of this group.
The major event that shook U.S. was 9/11 attack and this ignorance towards Al-Qaida and Osama has led U.S. to pay a heavy price after which U.S. attacked Afghanistan and Taliban government was over thrown.24 This group actively functioned from Pakistan Afghanistan boarder even financially supported by Pakistani and Afghani leaders.25
Camp David Accord 1978 created a new wave of terrorist attacks in Egypt as the non- state actors took it as pro- Israel step. In the recent event, after Arab spring the military leader Abdel Fattah al-Sisi ousted Mohammad Morsi in 2013. The military takeover in the country created a new ground for increased non-state extremism and terror activities. Syria is going through the worst situation due to political instability because of presence of non-state actors like ISIS and Arab spring, the fight is going between Syrian army and rebels.26
ISIS is the creation of the sharp division between Sunni and Shiite Muslims in the Maulanaregion especially Azad in Syria, Lebanon Library, and Iran. Aligarh Muslim University Iranian intrusion in Syria together with Hezbollah and other Shiite militias in favour of the Assad regime led to the formation of the Sunni militia. The secret friendship of
24Ibid., pp.31-32 25Ibid., p.33 26Ibid., pp. 35-37
43 Chapter -2
Assad government and ISIS has been confirmed. The ISIS had its control over oil and gas field in the region which gives strong financial and political support to it.
The Arab-Israel conflict gave the fertile reason for growth of terrorism in Middle East. Hijacking of planes, boats and other transportation, kidnapping of civilians for ransom or political blackmail, the blowing up of buildings, mall, restaurants, airports, air planes in the mid-air, trains and buses attacks by the gunfire on individuals and groups such kind of atrocious acts were practiced in Middle East since the late 1960s.27
The problem of Middle East, along with Kashmir, Xingjiang and the Philippines became unresolved due to its ethno-national nature which had made this issue more complicated. Islam is the basic common factor among all Middle Eastern religion and because of this religious factor a new type of terrorism has emerged that is ‘fundamentalist’28 The Muslim groups and countries had accepted the fundamentalist way which prefer the language of victory over compromise, holy war (jihad) over negotiation, rejection over acceptance, inclusion over tolerance and religion over reason.29
Jihad
In Islam (jihad) is never terrorism, but lawful battle “Jihad” is a loaded term and a concept that illustrates a deep gulf of miscommunication between Islam and the west there are some in each community who see jihad as a clash of civilizations and act on those beliefs. According to Maher Hathout, author of Jihad vs. Terrorism every one is defining Jihad except Muslims, Hathout concluded that Jihad, as projected in the Quran is not a single concept.
“It’s a range of activities all based on the Arabic meaning of the word “exerted effort”. In the Quran it is projected as exerting effort to change one self and also in certain situations physically standing against oppressors if that’s the only way”.30
MaulanaDouglas AzadE. Streusand Library, is the author of theAligarh formation of MuslimMughal Empire Universityand the Islamic Gunpowder Empires in the world history describes Jihad as its meaning can be taken
27 Raphael Israeli. op. cit., p.131 28 Ibid., p.132 29 Ibid., p.133 30 http//news.nationalgrographic.com accessed on 9 Feb 2018.
44 Chapter -2
out according to specific conditions and school of thought like for Ibn Taymiyyah, it is revolt against a corrupt ruler, for Sufis it is self improvement even they consider fasting as jihad, that is inner struggle with the flesh and worldly appetites which they call ‘Jihad al Akbar’ while Modern Notion is of reform political and social like President Habib Bourguiba of Tunisia, used the term jihad to describe the struggle for economic development in Tunisia.
The earliest perspective on Jihad from modern sensibility (i.e., responding to the west) developed among Indian Muslims in the aftermath of 1857 uprising (Indian Mutiny) Sir Syed Ahamad Khan argued that jihad meant only defensive war and could not justify further resistance to British rule as long as the British did not interfere in their religion.
For Islamic authors like Abul- A’la Mawdudi, Jihad includes war of liberation, Islamic rule means freedom and Justice, even for non-Muslims. Here he stands for Islamic dominanance or purely Islamic government. For Shia revolutionaries like Ayatollah Khomeini jihad means enjoining the good and forbidding the evil.
In recent times the call for jihad has been taken against Israel, Saddam Hussein’s call for Jihad against United States, Ayatollah Ali Khomeini’s similar designation of war against U.S. forces as jihad. In Afghanistan the war took place in name of jihad against USSR and recently against USA.31
In Muslim text Jihad is the holy war which is sanctioned by religion. The term Jihad is as old as Islam which is around for more than 1300 years while terrorism is little more than 200 years old.32
United Nations has not yet arrived at an internationally binding legal definition of terrorism what we understand from terrorism as a conspiratorial practice of calculated, demonstrative direct violent action without legal or moral restraints targeting mainly civilians and non-combatants, performed for its propagandistic and psychological Maulanaeffects on various Azad audiences Library, and conflict parties. Aligarh However Muslim terrorism also refersUniversity to doctrine of unconventional or irregular warfare and indeed, jihad can contain elements of terrorism in terms of ideology strategy and tactics. For modern Muslim thinkers,
31 www.meforum.org- what does Jihad mean/ by Dougles E. Streusand September 1997- pp. 9-17 accessed on 9 Feb 2018. 32 www.terrorismanlsts.com accessed on 9Feb 2018.
45 Chapter -2
true jihad is to “establish a just social order, and to attain this objective violent struggle is followed. Many think that jihad is also struggle by the sword”, struggle of heart and soul (fighting evil), struggle by the tongue and pen (spreading the word of Islam) and struggle by hand (political action and protest). Though the dominant meaning of “jihad” in Sunni Muslim culture remains “Islamic warfare” which refers to war.33
After the rise of the Islamic state of Syria and Levant (ISIL) the world has been debating over an old issue, characterized by some as the true Islam, clash of civilization. Jihad the Arabic term for struggle, Islamic terrorism and Islamic fascism became popular in terms of the post 9/11 era.34
Islamism
Over the last two decades, the term ‘Islamism’ has carried two distinct connotations. Within the Middle East region, the term “Islamic” denotes groups that use Islamic teachings as the guideline for participation in the public domain. The other connotation can be found in writings of Western scholars who deem Islamism to be found in the writings of Western scholars for whom Islamists are political actors who use violence not only as means but also an end while subscribing to dogmatic principles that pay no attention to the will of the people and their worldly aspirations.
The western notion of the “militants Islamists” was exploited by despotic Arab regimes which suppressed the Islamist opposition in order to prolong their unpopular reign.35
Islam and ‘Islamic’ have become the most frequently used terms by western Islamologists, orientalists and political scientists. Many writers had used this term from Ignaz Goldziher, Arnold Tony bee, Max Weber, Oswald Spengler, Fernand Braudel, Claude Cahen, Ann K.S., Lambton, Heuri Laoust and William Montogomery to contemporary scholars such as Samuel Huntington and Francis Fukuyama. Maulana Azad Library, Aligarh Muslim University
33 www.terrorismanalyst.com accessed on 10 Jan 2018 34www.novapublishers.com accessed on 11 Jan 2018 35Are Knudsen and Basem Ezbidi. op. cit., pp.231-232
46 Chapter -2
Prior to the Islamist revolution in Iran in 1978-79, the terms Islamism and ‘Islamists’ were absent from the vocabulary. It was Ayatollah Khomeini, who preached a political Islam and formed ‘Islamist government’ in twentieth century.
The 9/11 incident had given new reasons to discus ‘Islamism’ in form of ‘Islamic fundamentalism’ ‘Political Islam’, Islamic radicalism or ‘radical Islamism’. So, Islamism, is a religious ideology with a holistic interpretation of Islam whose final aim is the conquest of the world by all means.36
To Islamists, they consider Palestine, Kashmir, Chechnya and many other territories as Islamic territory which is under anti Islamic governments.
To establish a single Islamic rule under caliphate which was abolished under Mustafa Kemal, to Islamist the attainment of the caliphate is the first step towards the Islamisation of the world. According to them, Islam constitutes a universal religion whose aim is to rule over the entire world.37
Along with ISIS which is the most deadly jihadist militant group and has gained attention of world media and West, other non-state actors are-
Muslim Brotherhood
Muslim brotherhood was founded in Egypt by Suez Canal workers. Its political influence in the country can be traced from 1928. It had opposed British rule in the country. It was banned in early 1936 due to violent killings and the assassination of an Egyptian Prime Minister, recently the group formed the government following a popular Arab uprising that led to removal of Hosni Mobarak and his prosecution too. It has its influence across Middle East – for example in Bahrain, the political goals are represented by the al-Menbar Islamic society which is the largest political party in the country while in Iraq, the Islamic party has only associated itself with the Muslim Brotherhood however, the governments strong action on other affiliated groups such 38 Maulanaas Baath forced itsAzad leader to Library,go underground . Aligarh Muslim University According to Al-Banna “it is the nature of Islam to dominate, not to be dominated, to impose its law on all nations and to extend its powers to the entire planet”.
36http://pure/av/dk>files>PDF accessed n 24 Jan 2018. 37http://pure/av/dk>files>PDF accessed on 24 Jan 2018. 38Duaa Binzafaran. op. cit., pp.50-51
47 Chapter -2
The membership of Muslim Brotherhood increased day by day it was 800 in 1936 to over 2 million in 1948, currently it is an international Sunni Islamist movement it has its branches in 70 countries. It maintains its branches in form of political parties in many countries like Jordan, Bahrain, Tunisia, Algeria, Iraq, Syria, Sudan, Somalia, Yemen and Israel again, Islam is common in all countries.39
Many terrorists specially Sunni Islamic terrorist groups and their leaders like Osama bin Laden, Ayman Zawahiri and Khalid Sheikh Mohammed have been influenced by Muslim Brotherhood Ideology.
Hassan al-Banna’s founding principles of the Muslim Brotherhood insisted upon -
(1) An Islam as a total system complete in to itself;
(2) An Islam formulated from or based on its two primary sources the revelation in the Quran and the wisdom of the Prophet in the Sunna;
(3) An Islam applicable to all times and to all places.
Muslim Brotherhood had close association with Militant Islamist groups such as al- Qaida, Izz al din al Qassam Brigades, Islamic state, Boko Haram, al-Shabaab and Sinai province all share fundamental ideological values that have their roots in the Muslim Brotherhood.40
Among most prominent members of all non-state actors or terror organization are either product or inspired by Muslim Brotherhood starting from Al-Qaida, the three main founding member of Al-Qaida Osama-bin-Laden, Ayman Al-Zauahiri and Aballah Yusuf Azzam all three individuals had direct links to the Muslim Brotherhood. Along with above three leaders there are other notable members like, Anwar Al- Awlaki who is U.S. born inspired by Sayyid Qutb and had taken the issue of Global Jihad, Khaled Sheikh Mohammed is Pakistani born terrorist and accused of being the mastermind behind the 9/11 attacks, Mohammed Atta is one of hijacker Maulanapilots o nAzad the planes involvedLibrary, in the September Aligarh 11 attack Muslims in the world University trade centre in 2001. Islamic state of Iraq and the Levant (Islamic state), Jamaatu Ahlis Sunna Lidda
399bri.com>uploads>2015/04>report-PDF accessed on 9 Feb 2018. 409bri.com>uploads>2015/04>report-PDF accessed on 9 Feb 2018
48 Chapter -2
Awati wal- Jihad (Boko Haram) and Al-Qaida all are described as a gate way of sorts to al-Qaida.
So, from above study we can understand that all terrorist organizations of Middle East are inspired or come out from one school of Islam – Muslim Brotherhood.41
Hezbollah – this organization is an Iranian backed terrorist network that poses a direct threat to American interests and Israel, and dominates the Lebanese government. It was designated as a foreign terrorist organization by United States since 199542. The Islamic government of Iran reportedly subsidizes Hezbollah around $100 million a year and transfers advance and sophisticated weapons system, the U.S. intelligence also reports that Iran sends advisers and commands its attacks. Hezbollah considers U.S. foreign policy as ‘satanic’. In the view of the deputy secretary of state Richard Armitage” Hezbollah May be the ‘A- Team of terrorists and al-Qaida is actually the “B” team.43
Hezbollah’s deepening involvements in Syria is one of the most important factors of the conflict in 2013-2014.44 Hezbollah became one of the prominent leading national as well as regional players by its act of resistance to foreign occupation.45
In short, Hezbollah’s major focus revolves round Israel and its occupations. Recently on 6 Dec 2017 President Donald Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital had created unrest in Middle East.46
Hezbollah is looked upon as state and non-state actors both. In some instances the group is defined as state actor that works lawfully under the direction of a sovereign state. So, it has disputed identity.
Internationally it is considered as violent, non state actor that operates as a terrorist and guerilla organization with political and financial support from the Lebanese government. Since 1992 the group had actively participated in countries political activities by promoting the law. In 2005 it had its members in cabinet even it is Maulanainvolved in opening Azad school, Library, hospitals and Aligarh other charitable Muslim organizations University across
419bri.com>uploads>2015/04>report-PDF accessed on 9 Feb 2018 42 www.aipac.org accessed on 10 Feb 2018 43 www.cbcnews.com accessed on 10 Feb 2018 44 www.understandingwar.org accessed on 9 Sep 2017 45 https://www.mei.edu>files>publications PDF accessed on 10 Dec 2017 46. http://itusembassy.go>statement accessed on 6 Dec 2017
49 Chapter -2
Lebanon. Hezbollah and its affiliated groups which have actively participated in military operations in Syria. Hezbollah emerged in 1980s due to Lebanese civil war that pitted the Amal and Shia political factions. It had strong ties with Iran. It claims that it is against Israel however it stood for social cause like economic situation of locals, became voice for weaker sections, stood for jobs seekers and opposed Israeli aggression etc. It is supposed that resignation of Prime Minister Saad Hariri in 2011 was because of Hezbollah.
The legitimacy of U.N. special tribunal was also challenged by it. The involvement of this group in Syrian war had weekend its military strength. Analysts now believe that it has narrowed its focus on Shias as opposed to the interest of the Lebanese as a whole. Hezbollah is on Syrian side to fight alongside the Assad regime while the Sunnis of Lebanon are sympathetic to Sunni- led opposition in Syria – since 2011 tens of thousands of Syrian refugees have entered in Lebanon.47
Hamas - Hamas has been the de facto ruler in the Gaza since 2007, after defeating President Mahmoud Abbas’s long dominant Fatah party in parliamentary elections.
Hamas is an acronym for Harakat al-Muqawama al-Islamiyya or Islamic resistance movement. The word Hamas means zeal. Hamas Movement was founded in Gaza in 1987 by Imam Sheikh Ahmad Yasin and Abdul Aziz al-Rantisi shortly after the start of the first intifada, or Palestinian uprising against Israel’s occupation of the Palestinian territories.
“Hamas rejected any alternative to the full and complete liberation of Palestine from the river and sea” but considers the establishment of a sovereign Palestinian state on 1967 borders “to be a formula of national consensus.”
Since 2007, Israel has launched three wars against Hamas in Gaza strip. After Hamas won elections in that year, Israel imposed an airtight blockade.48
Hamas is the largest of several Palestinian militant Islamist groups. Its name is an MaulanaArabic acronymAzad for Library, the Islamic resistance Aligarh movement Muslim originating as University it did in 1987 after the beginning of the first intifada, or Palestinian uprising, against Israel’s occupation of the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Its main purpose was an armed struggle
47 Duaa Binzafran. op. cit., pp.46-49 48 www.aljazeera.com accessed on 12 Oct 2017
50 Chapter -2
against Israel led by its military wing, the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades and delivering social welfare programs. It is the first Islamists group in the Arab world to win election through ballot box. Hamas’s military wing is designated a terrorist group by Israel, the U.S., EU, and UK along with all its allies. It has its own charter it is born for destruction of Israel it considers its action as legitimate resistance movement. Hamas had carried out several deadly suicide bombings. Over the years many of its leaders have been killed in Israeli bombings and assassinations, some are
1. Sheikh Ahmad Yasin 2004
2. Abdul Aziz al-Rantisi 2004
3. Salah Shehada 2002
4. Ismail Abu Shanab in August 2003
5. Said Siyam 2009.
6. Ahmed Jabari 2012.
After the death of Sheikh Yassin, Khaled Mashal become the group political leader in exile. He was succeeded by Gaza- based Ismail Haniya in May 2017.49
Fatah –Means ‘conquest’ or ‘opening’ is acronym of Harakat al- Tahrir al-Watani al- Filastini (Palestine national libration movement). It is the political and military organization of Arab Palestinians founded in the late 1950’ by Yasir Arafat and Khalil al-Wazir (Abu Jihad). Its Purpose was to get back Palestine from Israeli control by waging low intensity guerrilla warfare.
It got support and become based in Damascus by 1963. Fatah has developed a commando type organizational structure. By the end of 1960s it was the largest and best funded of all the Palestinian organizations and had taken over effective control of the Palestine Libration Organization.
MaulanaFatah has been Azad head quartered Library, in Lebano nAligarh. The secular movementMuslim was foundUniversity in Kuwait in the in the late 1950s by diaspora Palestinians after the 1948 Nakba – the ethnic cleansing of Palestine by the Zionist movement aiming to create a Jewish
49 www.bbc.com>news>worldMiddle accesses on 12 Dec 2017.
51 Chapter -2
modern state in historic Palestine Mohamoud Abbas is current President of the Palestinian authority.
The main military group of this organization was al-Asifah or the storm its members who are actually fighters use to function from different Arab countries along with Gaza and West Bank.
Its armed struggle against Israeli occupation began in 1965 and its operations were mostly carried out from Jordan and Lebanon. Later in 1973-80s after being pushed out of Jordan and Lebanon this movement become flexible and underwent a fundamental change, choosing to negotiate with Israel.
In the 1990s the Fatah led PLO agreed for armed resistance and backed United Nations security council resolution 242, which calls for building a Palestinian state on the 1967 borders (West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza).50
Its leaders agreed for peace talks and reached to two state solutions. Since 2004 after the death of Arafat Fatah had lost its position and lost Parliamentary elections to Hamas.
During Intifada, the Brigades carried out numerous operations against Israeli soldiers and settlers in the west bank and Gaza and suicide attacks on civilians inside Israel. In second intifada there were number of armed groups associated with Fatah, which emerged, like al-Aqsa Brigades.51
PLO
The Palestinian Libration organization (PLO) was established in Jerusalem in 1964. Its first leader Ahmad Shawqi, was a close ally of Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nassaer. In 1969 the organization had chosen Yasir Arafat, the Fatah’s leader as its chairman of the executive committee of the PLO in 1968, its charter was amended to reflect the ideology of militant groups like Fatah which supports “armed struggle” and Maulanamilitancy Azad for liberation Library, of Palestine.52 Aligarh Muslim University
50 www.aljazeera.com accessed on 20 Jan 2018. 51 www.bbc.com 16 June 2011 accessed on 20 Jan 2018 52 Islamicus.org posted on 24 June 2017 accessed on 18 Jan 2018
52 Chapter -2
After the Arab-Israeli war of 1967, the PLO becomes the centre of Palestinian political activity and by 1974 it was the sole legitimate representative of the Palestinian people. Armed struggle of PLO included some notorious acts such as a wave of airplane hijacking spearheaded by Wadi Haddad and the PFLP, (popular front for the libration of Palestine) “black September” attack by Fatah on Israel’s Olympic team at the 1972 games in Munich. However the insurgency against Israel inside the newly occupied West Bank and Gaza Strip and the international acts of violence failed to give success to PLO.
In 1974 with the twelfth meeting of the Palestinian National Council PNC, the highest representative body of PLO, the organization began to move away from its original maximalist policy of Palestinian liberation to the two state solutions, that is the Palestinian state alongside Israel with accordance to the United Nations resolution. This resolution became completed with the nineteenth PNC (Palestinian National Council) meeting in 1998. This position insists the idea of Palestinian state in the West Bank, Gaza strip and East Jerusalem that was to be achieved by negotiations with Israel. While most of the countries welcomed, it also got rejection and resistance from minority groups of Palestinians many from PLO backed by Arab regimes for rejection and opposition. In 1993 the PLO agreed on recognition of Israel and both the countries signed a declaration of principles on interim self government arrangements (DOP) which is also commonly known as Oslo Accords.53
The prominent Palestinian liberation organization’s allies are;
1. Popular Guard
2. Islamic Unification movement
3. Sixth of February movement
4. Lebanese armed revolutionary factions
Maulana5. People’s Azad liberation armyLibrary, Aligarh Muslim University
6. United Nasserite organization54
53www.oxfordislamicstudies.com>public accessed on 21 Jan 2018. 54 https://www.vox.com>PA-PLO-fatah accessed on 21 Jan 2018.
53 Chapter -2
In 1987, Congress passed legislation that declared there would never be an office of the Palestine liberation organization on U.S. soil on which U.S. President Ronald Reagan agreed and signed but later after seven years PLO opened its office in Washington with the generosity of Congress and President Bill Clinton. Recently Trump administration announced that the PLO cannot operate a Washington office.55
Non-state military actors also need to achieve a way to find resources in order to achieve their goals, such as weapons, uniforms, money, and means of transportation and communication, these can be achieved through the local population support, foreign sponsorship and through robbery and smuggling.
When we analyze the evolution of these non-state actors despite having common features of violence, religion, local roots etc these non-state actors have evolved differently. On one hand, al-Qaida had matured by adopting a transnational focus and Hezbollah and Hamas, inspite of transnational links have grown national causes. Middle East has not only these three groups – Al-Qaida, Hamas and Hezbollah infact the region presents a huge variety of non state actors. Such actors are active and operate from Pakistan to Arabian Peninsula to North Africa these are Al- Nusra (Syria), free Syrian army, ISIS now IS Taliban and no doubt al-Qaida.56
Al-Qaida
Al-Qaida is an international terrorist organization founded by Osama Bin Laden It was established around in 1988 by Bin Laden as an Afghan resistance to defeat the Soviet Union. It is commonly said that the seed of al-Qaida was actually sown by United States to fight against communism in Afghanistan. Its goal is to establish a pan-Islamic Caliphate though out the world by working with allied Islamic extremists groups to over throw the non-Muslim regimes and to expel westerners and non- Muslims from Muslim countries. In February 1998, Al-Qaida issued a statement under banner of “The world Islamic front for Jihad against the Jews and crusaders. MaulanaAl-Qaida Azad merged with Library, Egyptian Islamic Aligarh Jihad (Al- Jihad)Muslim of Ayman University al-Zawahiri in June 2001.
55 https://www.jta.org>UnitedStaes accessed on 21 Jan 2018 56William Moraes Roberto and Ana Carolina Melos, The situation regarding non-state military actors in Middle East, pp. 247-293
54 Chapter -2
The September 11 attack on world trade centre and Pentagon was attempted by Al- Qaida as revenge as U.S. launched a war in Afghanistan to destroy Al-Qaida’s bases and removal of Taliban who supported Al-Qaida and Osama. Throughout the war Al- Qaida had become weaken due to the death of many of its strong leaders but no doubt it serves as a “inspiration” for worldwide network of terrorism, fundamentalists and other related groups.
Al-Qaida has links with other terrorist organizations like- Armed Islamic group.
- Salafist group for call and combat and the armed Islamic group.
- Egyptian Islamic Jihad (Egypt)
- Al- Gama’a al-Islamiyya
- The Libyan Islamic fighting group
- Bayt al-Imam (Jordan)
- Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Muhammad (Kashmir)
- Asbat al-Ansar
- Hezbollah (Lebanon)
- Al- Badar
- Harakat ul-Ansar/ Mujahadeen
- Al-Hadith
- Harakat ul-Jihad
- Jaish Mohammad – JEM
- Jamiat ulema-e- Pakistan
Maulana- Moro Islamic Azad libration Library, front (the Philippines) Aligarh Muslim University
- Abu Sayyaf Group (Malaysia, Philiphines)
- Al-Ittihad al-Islamiya AIAI (Somalia)
55 Chapter -2
- Islamic movement of Uzbekistan
- Islamic Army of Aden (Yemen) all these group share Al-Qaida’s Sunni Muslim fundamentalists.
After it got weakened some terrorism expert claim that Al-Qaida had stepped up its cooperation on training with Hezbollah radical Iranian backed Lebanese militia born from the minority Shiite strain of Islam.57
Now, after one third of its leadership is killed or captured and Al- Qaida lost its base in Afghanistan and U.S. got success in killing Al- Qaida’s founding member and head Osama bin Laden, from 2014 Al- Qaida is over shadowed by its former ally Al-Qaida in Iraq which now call itself Islamic state, Al-Qaida’s affiliated group, al- Qaida in Iraq was formed by Jordanian jihadists Abu-Musab al-Zarqawi in 2004. Later he formed second branch of Al-Qaida in 2006 by the name Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb and in 2009 its branch was formed in Yemen and Saudi Arabia by the name Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula.
Al-Qaida forged an alliance with Al-Shabab in Somalia however the strife continued between groups like Al-Nusra in Syria and its parent organization. The Islamic state in Iraq which was Al-Qaida in Iraq and now IS led to breakage between Al-Qaida and its affiliated groups.58
The 9/11 attacks had changed the way of looking towards the non-state actors and U.S. response towards terrorism and taking them seriously.59
ISIS and Al-Qaida Relations
ISIS is the jihadi group that came in focus in international scene in 2014 when it had occupied major territories of Iraq and Syria. It became known to the world for its mass killing, abduction and beheading. The group had attained sympathy in Muslim world. Maulana Azad Library, Aligarh Muslim University
57 http://www.globalsecusity.org accessed on 12 Feb 2018. 58 theconversation.com>why-al-qaida accessed on 11 Feb 2018 59 www.vox.com accessed on 12 Feb 2018.
56 Chapter -2
In 2014 this group had declared the establishment of the “caliphate” which is a government that is run by Shariah (Islamic law) by God’s deputy on earth, in Islamic religion he is known as “Caliph”.
Its leader was Ibrahim al-Badri al-Samarri, better known as Abu- Bakr al Baghdadi. This group had accepted direct confrontation with the U.S. led coalition. They consider or have faith that the situation in the region and the confrontation with enemies all are described in Islamic apocalyptic prophecies.60
Abu Bakr came to camp Bucca (converting furnace), in its early days it is infact not clear that he was radicalized there or he was radical before he came to camp Bucca. He was arrested from Fallujah in February 2004, and later he was released on grounds of being person of low risk.
According to Pentagon official “he was a street thug when we picked him up” Colonel Kenneth King added Abu Bakr was a bad dude, but he wasn’t one of the worst. ‘He remembered his parting comment before coming out of camp Bucca to Baghdad after release – ‘ see you in New York’- which gave one newspaper an excuse for a most hair – raising headline.61
Baghdadi had served on Sharia committees of Jaish Ahl- Al-Sunna wal Jama’a (JASW), a Sunni group he reportedly founded, and on the Mujahedeen Shura Council (MSC), which the JASW joined in January 2006. The MSC became the Islamic state of Iraq (ISI).62
Al-Zarqawi (A Jordanian jihadist and funder of Al-Qaida Iraq) had written to Osama bin laden, he had expressed fear of Shia state, stretching across Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon and mocked the commitment of local fighters: “Jihad here unfortunately [take the form of] mines planted, rockets launched and mortar shelling from afar. Under his work plan; he lists and dismisses – the danger posed by the USA, the Kurds and new Iraq army in 2004, and then rounds on the Shia. In their words they want to Maulanaawaken the sleepy Azad Sunnis Library,. Iraqi Sunnis shouldAligarh rediscover Muslim their religious University purity through a campaign of collective suicide.
60 www.bbc.com 2 Dec 2015 accessed on 13 Feb 2018 61 Michael Griffin, Islamic State (rewriting history) the Great Escape, Publisher: Pluto press, pp.4-5 62 Ibid., p.6
57 Chapter -2
There after the first car bomb since the U.S invasion exploded outside the Jordanian embassy in Baghdad on 7 August 2003, there is unending chain of bombings and killings. Each bomb was more powerful than the other and each was directed against a specific constituency, the Hashemite kingdom of Jordan and other U.S. allies in the Middle East, non-government agencies and their employees to alleviate post war condition, the majority Shia was rapidly replacing Sunnis in key government and military positions.63 Hatred for Shia is the key feature of this ideology which is influenced by Salfist school of thought.
Al-Zarqawi and his allies had lot of differences with Osama Bin Laden, for Osama his first priority was the ‘far enemy’ that is United States, while for Zarqawi ‘near enemy’ like Arab regimes were better target. For this Al-Zarqawi collected volunteers from Jordan, Syria, Lebanon and Palestine, who crossed into western Afghanistan from Iran to training camps which got its funds from Bin Laden who worked on Zarqawi’s plan.
Al- Zarqawi in 1990s had formed the group Bayat al-Imam with al- Maqdisi which become Jund al-Sham (soldiers of the Levant) and later formed into al-Tawhid wal- Jihad which calls for monotheism and Jihad.
Al-Zarqawi from 2003-06 had organized vast network of combat cells, spying units, safe houses, weapons coaches, factories making improvised explosive devices (IEDs), suicide bombers, vest fabricators, media professionals, drivers, mechanics and a logistical system that furnished food, arms, ammunitions, wages, spiritual guidance, medical care and pensions for martyr’s dependants. Al-Zarqawi, no doubt had created a well organized guerrilla struggle that will be studied and remembered for years to come.
So, humiliated by defeat, the ever-present U.S. convoys and patrols, unemployment, rising of Shia power all this condition had created a Sunni triangle- this concerned an area around the Tigris and Euphrates rivers like regions of Anbar, Salahuddin, Diyala Maulana Azad Library,64 Aligarh Muslim University and western Baghdad. bin Laden’s Al-Qaida’s approach and Al-Zarqawi’s were different, bin Laden many times tried to restrain Al-Zarqawi from assassinations,
63 Ibid., pp.8-9
64 Ibid., pp.10-11
58 Chapter -2
kidnappings, bomb attacks against civilians specially pilgrimages of Karbala and Baghdad. Osama Bin Laden mentioned the 4 goals of Al-Qaida in the letter to Al- Zarqawi.
1) To expel America
2) To establish Islamic emirate
3) To fill void from American departure.
4) The clash with Israel, and he condemned the attacks on Shia and slaughtering of hostages which Al-Qaida called forgery.
Saif al Adel became emir of al Qaeda after killing of Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad, Pakistan and Al-Zawahiri become the spiritual head of the organization.65 Musab Al- Zarqawi died on 7 June 2006 after being hit by two 500 pound bombs at the meetings with this spiritual advisor, Sheikh Abd al-Rahman in a village near Baquba. Though his successor was Abu Ayyub Al-Masri but because he was Egyptian, he was disqualified and a person called Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi become leader and in mid- October, an MSC spokesman announced the creation of Islamic state of Iraq (ISI) covering the territory of Anbar, Diyala Kirkuk, Salahuddin, Ninewa, parts of Babel al- Wassat with capital in Baquba, mostly a Sunni region.66
The fighters of ISIS believe that by travelling to fight for the caliphate, they were standard-bearers of their faith. They felt and believed whatever they are doing they are doing for Islam and to restore its glory. They also felt privilege and chosen one to do right, the wrong of past.
The ISIS fighters who are under trial had told that apart from religious belief or Islam there are other factors too for joining ISIS.
1. Humiliating loss of power at the hands of west
Maulana2. Local people Azad consider Library, themselves as victimsAligarh of oppression. Muslim University
65 Ibid., pp.13-15
66 Ibid., pp.19-20
59 Chapter -2
3. For some people, they are cultural warrior, not a holy warrior for them Jihad was a practical obligation and it is necessary to restore the caliphate and bring on the prophecy of the end times.
4. Presence of Israel which local Arab never accepts as a neighbour.
5. Draining of their oil by international companies specially United States and its allies gave the local people the reason to go for war and to restore Caliphate (the Islamic form of government) and to bring prophecy of the end times.
By the 2013, the number of Iraqi fighting in Syria had reached to at least 500 and was growing daily. The Iraqi fighters (veterans) who had fought against U.S. army and Shias in sectarian war had crossed border and formed another jihadi group named Jabhat al-Nusra.
According to Martin Chulov in his visits to cover ISIS he found on every flight he took from May 2012- May 2014, “there are at least five jihadi on board, on their way to join the Jihad (fight). They refused to sit near woman, their ringtones were of Quranic verses and no one was hesitant about where they were going”.
Among the members who joined ISIS and other jihadi groups like Jabhat al-Nusra were the solders of Saddam’s army who lost their jobs, pensions and any chance of meaning-full employment after U.S. Viceroy Paul Bremer disbanded the Iraqi military and outlawed the Baa’th party to which senior officers and members belonged. They all got organized to fight against U.S. insurgency and others got associated with Syrias Baa’thists who offered refuge and helped with supply lines. The Jabhat al- Nursa and Al-Qaida aligned jihadi group formed by the new name ISIS. However Baghdadi’s men, most of them Iraqis, like Abu-Ismael kicked al-Nusra members out of their main base.
According to one of the fighters “things had not always gone well in Iraq”. He said that “there had been mistakes and we had to be patient, but now Syria had helped us Maulanarevive our Azadselves. It wouldLibrary, also revive Aligarhthe Caliphate.” Muslim University
The Sunni-Shia tussle also gave the new reason to fight as for many local men inspite of being reluctant towards the ISIS and jihad felt that they are helping to restore the
60 Chapter -2
glory which is lost, one is the ancient Islamic civilization and the long era of Sunni power in Shia dominating Iraq.
A Sunni fighter feels that he is fighting with Iran and Assad regime to restore Sunni Islam and Sunni rule, for him Iran and United States are working together against Sunnis. One feels that all of this happening was predicted and he is on the right path and will not stop untill he wins in the name of Allah. One in his answer accepted death as it is his destiny and he loves that as other love life.67
As Iraqi government had declared the defeat of ISIS and American President Donald Trump took all credit for the Islamic Caliphate’s collapse the U.S. government experts warned that ISIS remains the lethal force. Hassan Hassan, co-author of the book “ISIS: Inside the army terror,” estimates that some 7000 ISIS- Loyalists remain. He added that” there are still so many in Syria, in the Abu Kamal and Deir al-Zour areas in which lot of them are Iraqis who fled across the border”.68
Haqqani Network
Although Haqqani Network had little to do with Middle East but its presence and affiliation with Afghanistan and Talibans made it a notable non-state actor in the region. No doubt it is the most cruel, sophisticated terrorist organization. The presence of Haqqani Network is in North Waziristan, Pakistan, in and around Afghanistan’s south eastern border. It is the well known fact that this network had backing of Pakistani security establishment. Pakistani security agencies consider this organization as a useful ally and proxy force to represent their interests in Afghanistan. Indian projects of construction and other infrastructure of India is easy target of this network.69
Major goal of this group is to regain the control of Taliban in Afghanistan and to reestablish the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. In 2015 Sirajuddin Haqqani became the deputy of the Taliban leadership council.
MaulanaThe group is known Azad to maintain Library, close ties with Aligarh Al-Qaida, the MuslimPakistani Taliban University and to the Pakistani Military intelligence services. The Haqqani network is believed to be
67 www.theguardian.com accessed on 14 Feb 2018 68 www.nbcnews.com uploaded on 20 Jan 2018 accessed on 10 Feb 2018 69 www.understandingwar.org accessed on 10 Feb 2018
61 Chapter -2
financed by some Gulf States including Saudi Arabia and Pakistan another source of finance is the illicit activities like drug trafficking, extortion etc. This network is infamous for its attacks on most strategic locations across Afghanistan specially in Kabul. This group owns expert fighters, expertise in car bombs and suicide attacks and influential organs for recruiting foreign jihadists.70
On 19 September 2012 the then U.S. secretary of state designated Haqqani Network as a foreign terrorist organization. Along with Al-Qaida and Tehreek-e-Taliban in Pakistan, Haqqani network have close relationship with the movement of Uzbekistan and Pakistan based Lashkar e-Taiba.71
The main objectives of Haqqani network is to fight for the withdrawal of America and its ally forces from Afghanistan. Reformation of Afghan State under Shariah rule and establishing reformed, nationalist Afghan government.
Haqqani Network had maintained close and personal relationship with Osama Bin Laden, Infact Haqqani Network has helped Osama Bin Laden and Jihadists to move from Afghanistan to safe havens in Pakistan during U.S. battle at Tora-Bora in 2001.
In 2011 Admiral Mike Mullen, the chairman of joint chief of staff, called Haqqani Network a ‘Veritable arm’ of Pakistan’s ISI.72
Suicide Bombings or Islamickaze
Modern suicide bombing was introduced by Hezbollah in 1983 in Lebanon. From the beginning of 2004, there have been around 300 suicide attacks carried out in 14 countries by 17 organizations.
Suicide bombing is a common means of attack in Middle East due to its affiliation with Islam a new term was coined as Islamikaze.73 The term which is taken out from kamikaze, the Japanese soldiers during Second World War were trained to blow themselves up with their enemy. It was their devotion towards their country and their Maulanaemperor. Azad They were Library, popularly known Aligarh as kamikaze, Muslim the “winds of God”University and their target were to give casualties, damage and terror on the American forces during the
70https://www.jpost.com accessed on 20 Feb 2018 71http://www.voanews.com uploaded on 1 June 2017 accessed on 16 Feb 2018. 72 https://web.stanford.edu>group accessed on 17 Feb 2018 73 https://www.mpac.org accessed on 14 Feb 2018.
62 Chapter -2
final stages of the pacific war. These special units were trained and backed by Japanese state.
The non-state actors like Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in the West Bank and Gaza began launching human bomb attacks against Israelis. Islamikaze camps are in Afghanistan where latest technologies of death and destruction are delivered to trainees and volunteers, apart from Afghanistan training camps are in Lebanon, Iran, Sudan and many Muslim countries.
Terrorists from Algeria, Egypt, Sudan, Lebanon, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are trained here. In many cases terrorists are caught who were from European countries like France, Germany, Britain and few from Bosnia, Chechnya etc. They are supposed to do destruction as much as possible by guerrilla warfare, explosions, mounting of bombs they are more a death machine rather than a human bomb.74
We have already discussed about the causes of terrorism in Middle East but as terrorism is a global problem now so in general, its causes are-
1. Civilization and cultural clashes
2. Globalization
3. Religion
4. In Middle Eastern context, Arab-Israel conflict, and
5. Ongoing conflict and instability.75
Terrorism is of four types-
1. State sponsored terrorism
2. Dissent terrorism
3. Terrorist and the left and right- related to political ideology Maulana Azad Library, Aligarh Muslim University 4. Religious terrorism76
74 Raphael Israeli. op. cit., pp.102-106 75 Raphael Israeli. War, Peace and Terror in the Middle East, Frank Cass and Co. Ltd. Publisher, 2003, p.113
63 Chapter -2
The Basic message of terrorism is ‘fear’. However it became popular with its relation with Islam and Middle East but its roots can be traced out from first century Jews, called ‘zealots’ who tried to overthrow Roman rule though intimidation and assassination.
But the term “terror” got its origin from French revolution (1793-1794) during the regime De La Terreur, the right of terror was there later in 1970 Russia took it to over throw Czar through the extreme violence for weakening Czar and government to divide population and to provoke authorities to over react out of fear.
Terrorism, Muslim and Middle East now are so interconnected that it is sometimes considered as synonyms but here the question arises that what is the cause of terrorism? It is power vacuum, oil or Israel or what West tells – Islamic hardliners.77
Oil
Middle Eastern oil has sustained U.S. economic growth but has also contributed to less desirable outcomes, such as the spread of anti US sentiments that fuelled radical terrorism.
The quality of life in the Arab world is considerably lower, this is the condition which was one of the reasons why Osama bin Laden and other Islamic radical terrorists have succeeded in their continual exhortation for the Muslim world to take up violence against the U.S. and its allies.
The Middle East is the largest producer of oil for the global market given the rise of anti-American sentiment throughout this region as measured both by public polls and by terrorist group statements and attacks and such dependency for natural resources had increased the risk of national security.
Former CIA director James Woolsey notes that “we live in a world in which a terrorist attack in the Middle East could push oil well over $ 100 a barrel and send Maulanaworld economy Azad into Library,a tailspin”. Baker Aligarh institute report Muslim observed that theUniversity strategic and economic reality of U.S. dependence on Middle East oil is costing the United States in terms of military operations and national security.
76 http://hlsonline.eku.edu>hls-101 accessed on 23 Feb 2018 77 https://study.com accessed on 22 Feb 2018
64 Chapter -2
Author and noted resource conflict expert Michael T. Klare had observed “oil is closely associated with conflict and violence because its possession is viewed by many states as the matter of national security.”
Government leaders, rebels and guerilla movements and even neighbouring states all view this large revenue sources as something worth fighting for, oil is thus linked to violence and conflict. According to the 2004 Corruption Perception Index (CPI), corruption is one of the most significant problems facing many oil rich nations. The greed for oil is not limited to Middle East. The Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor had its origin, in a decision by the United States to limit oil exports to Japan in 1941. Oil played major role in 1953 coup in Iran as well as series of military conflicts in the Persian Gulf. The long time extraction of Middle Eastern oil had made the image of United State as a global parasite and is the foremost reason of global terrorism.78
Many believe that “war on terror” provided one more convenient cover of renewed ‘imperialist oil grab in this region, actually war on terror become justified as ‘war of liberation’ against “oil funded dictators”.
The focus on Arabian or Gulf oil is not new. It is since its discovery “Persian oil…... is yours. We share the oil of Iraq and Kuwait. As for Saudi Arabian oil, it’s ours” as President Roosevelt said to British ambassador.
Political scientists assert that resource wealth can be more of a ‘curse’ than a ‘blessing’ given the trajectory of under-development followed by many resources in rich countries.79
Iran, Oil, and America
After Afghanistan and Iraq the U.S. administration is now in the process of singling out Iran as being the major trouble maker in the region. Although different from other Arabian countries, Iran is more pragmatic. Under Presidents Rafsanjani and Khatami it is more concerned with Iran’s national interests and economic development in the MaulanaGulf than the export Azad of revolution. Library, Iran’s strategic Aligarh position on MuslimStrait of Hormuz University makes it the world’s second largest owner of gas reserves making it strategically important in
78James J.F. Forest and Metthew V. Sousa. Oil and Terrorism in the New Gulf: Framing U.S. Energy and Security Policies for the Gulf of Guinea, Lexington Books, 2006, p. 4, 5, 9, 12, 18, 19. 79 http://www.researchgate.net accessed on 21 Feb 2018
65 Chapter -2
the near future. Iran is aware that American military presence in Iraq and central Asia are part of its strategy to encircle it.
United States is accusing Tehran of terrorism sponsorship and supporting cross-border terrorism and constructing weapons of Mass destruction. U.S. is afraid of passing WMD to non-state actors by Iran. Oil is the basic factor behind sanctions which actually didn’t work very well instead it increases volatility and any attempt to resume economic actions against Tehran will have an effect on oil prices, because sanctions will reduce Iranian export. The crisis in Kurdistan is limiting the oil supply as Kirkuk region produces 40% of all Iraqi oil production.80
So, the relationship of West and Middle East on good and bad terms is totally based on “Oil”.
It was several times accepted by the American official agents that Iraq war was more about oil and strategic location than Saddam and weapons of mass destruction.
In the words of Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan he told the White House before the Iraq war that removing Saddam Hussein was “essential” to secure world oil supplies. Greenspan wrote that “the Iraq war is largely about oil”.81
Iraq is different because of its geostrategic assets and its location and its two wealth’s oil and water.82 The suicide attack on oil terminals off the coast of the southern Iraqi city of Basra is another sign that terrorists have singled out oil as their biggest prize.83
Al-Qaida’s attack on French supertanker Limburg off the coast of Yemen killing a sailor is an example of oil terrorism. In the summer of 2002, a group of Saudis were arrested for plotting to sabotage Ras Tanura, the world’s largest off shore oil loading facility through which one tenth of global oil supply flows daily. Another attack was on tanker truck in which bomb was attached underside Israel’s central fuel and gas depot in Tel Aviv. The bomb exploded but fuel was slow to ignite and Tel Aviv was Maulanasaved fro Azadm a big disaste Library,r. Aligarh Muslim University
80oilprice.com accessed on 26 Jan 2018 81 http://ukreuters.com>articile accessed on 23 Oct 2017. 82 Raphael Israeli. op. cit., p.99 83 www.iags.org>galluft accessed on Jan 25 2018.
66 Chapter -2
The terror experts and governments had expressed concern over attacks on ships and marines. This may create disruption in one of the world’s narrow maritime throughways which is also the busiest pass of world, like the strait of Hormuz, the Bosporus, or the strait of Malacca as already discussed it is the route from where most trade to Asia passes and any attack or explosion or burning of oil in sea will shut down these choke point for weeks which will definitely paralyze the world economy and global market. The Bush administration’s decision to fill up the strategic petroleum reserve shows the threat of oil shortage and its importance.84
Oil has not only motivated foreign interests in the region, but has also affected the balance of power with and between regional states. Oil wealth played a role in shifting the balance of economic and military power from the larger and agricultural countries in the region to the petro states of the Persian Gulf through massive arms purchases, financial aid and remittances. Due to the economy and politics, the oil- dependent states are also affected by their propensity to spend more on defence.
Since 1970 the arms buildup in Persian Gulf region has been the largest among developing countries. Caspian region held half the world’s oil supplies around half of century ago. The battle of Stalingrad which was one of disastrous war in the Second World War was fought on who will control the vast oil supplies.
After the discovery of oil this region attracted the western oil companies and political strategists are showing great interest in the region for building the new pipeline through Georgia and Turkey into Mediterranean, pumping a million barrels a day.85
As it holds between two-thirds and three-quarters of all known oil reserves and this is why all western countries including United States considers this region as most vital economically and strategically.
Concern of United States
As we all know that Iraq and Iran were always a headache for America hence MaulanaPresident Bush hasAzad declared Library, them the rogue stateAligarhs and sometime Muslims, “axis of evil University” along with North Korea and behind all this military intervention the reason is United States quest for oil of West Asia. The presence of United States remains in favour of Gulf
84 www.iags.org accessed on 27 Jan 2018 85 http://www.researchgate.net accessed on 27 Jan 2018
67 Chapter -2
Cooperation Council as it gives protection and backing to these states and stops states like Iran and Iraq to have regional hegemony.
During the Iraq’ invasion of Kuwait the GCC states specially Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar had relied on U.S. to defend and protect their oil fields86.
The sanctions on the countries like Iran-Iraq (named rogue states) by United States were due to prolonged regional tension and sanctions and external pressures had affected energy goals and resulted into losses for U.S. corporations and economically it led to reduction of oil flows. So oil is one of the biggest factors which is very much connected with 9/11 terrorist attack and subsequent ‘war on terror’ including the U.S. -led occupation of Iraq in March 2003.87
Maulana Azad Library, Aligarh Muslim University
86 www.brookings.edushibleytelhami March 1st, 2002, accessed on 26 Jan 2018. 87 http://www.researchgate.net accessed on 27 Jan 2018
68
Chapter -3 Arms Race in Region
Maulana Azad Library, Aligarh Muslim University Chapter - 3
CHAPTER - 3
ARMS RACE IN REGION
Arms race is competition in which two or more enemy nations each try to out do the others to produce the largest possible arsenal of weapons.1
An arms race denotes a rapid increase in the quantity or quality of instruments of military power by rival states in peace time. The first modern arms race took place when France and Russia challenged the naval superiority of Britain’s fleet. It spilled over into World War I, while tensions after the war between the United States, Britain and Japan resulted in the first major arms limitation treaty at Washington conference. The arms race was also a major factor of the cold war between the U.S and the Soviet Union.
An arms race denotes according to, Charles H. Fairbanks, Jr. “the activity of the other side, and not one’s own resource, plan, and motives, becomes the determinant of one’s behaviour”.
Many onlookers, and some participants, have claimed that the likelihood of war increases as the accumulation of arms proceeds apace.
Political purpose almost always drives and govern arms race. It is common for a major race to be initiated by a state interested in changing the political status quo. The course of an arms race had frequently exacerbated a sense of rivalry and occasionally even determined the timing of a w+ar, but most often it has ended in a political settlement between rivals or in a decision by one side to moderate its buildup.
Arms race can be seen from late nineteenth century when France and Russia challenged Britain in the context of acute tension over colonial expansion. The ultimate result was not war, but rather an Anglo French political settlement in 1904 and an Anglo Russian rapprochement in 1907 against the background of a rising MaulanaGerman threat.Azad Library, Aligarh Muslim University
The German challenge to Britain in the early twentieth century involved the most famous naval arms race of all time. However the Germans in the end could not keep it
1 hptts://study.com accessed on 24 Jan 2018 69
Chapter - 3
up, because of domestic difficulties in raising taxes and pressures to give greater priority to spending on the army and later that ultimately produced war in 1914.
Another major arms race involved United States, Britain and Japan it erupted at the end of World War I. It ended at the Washington conference of 1921-1922 with the major arms-limitation treaty and new political settlement for East Asia. Adolf Hitler was in a rush to attack France in 1940 and the Soviet Union in 1941, partly because of the dynamics of an arms race that he had started in the 1930s.
Japanese navy lead over the U.S. pacific fleet in every class of warship, but massive American naval programme begun in 1940 left Japan behind by 1943 and due to effects of an American oil embargo helped to promote an attack on the United States in December 1941, very popularly known as Pearl Harbor attack. Though hegemonic political ambitions fuelled the conflict, cold war too was the result of arms race.2
After the end of World War II in 1945 the new animosity between United States and the Soviet Union is known as cold war which occurred for the control over the conquered areas of Eastern Europe in the late 1940’s and lasted up to early 1990s. It was United States which possessed atomic weapons but in 1949 the Soviet Union exploded an atomic bomb and the arms race began from this both United States and Soviet Union continued building more and more bigger bombs. Later in 1952 United States tested a new and more powerful weapon which is hydrogen bomb which Soviet Union successfully tested in 1953.3
The United States government is planning to spend over $ 1.2 trillion during the next 30 years to rebuild its arsenal no doubt by these countries like Russia, China and other countries will build even more nuclear weapons.4
The global arms industry just registered its first rise in annual sales since 2010, according to the data from the Stockholm international peace research institute, the combined revenues of the world’s 1000 biggest weapons producers increased 1.9 Maulanapercent from 20 15Azad-2016. That Library, amounts to a 38Aligarh percent increase Muslim (in 2016) from University 2002, when SIPRI, started compiling the data.
2 www.history.com>topics/cold-war/armsrace accessed on 25 Jan 2018 3 www.amnh.org/exhibitions/einstien/placeandwar accessed on 23 Jan 2018 4 http://www.ploughshares.org/new-arms-race accessed on 22 Jan 2018 70
Chapter - 3
Global arms exports have returned to levels not seen since the end of the cold war. Military spending is also beginning to gain after a short slump that was clearly related to the crisis, most alarmingly in some of the world’s least stable regions. The U.S. as expected remains the Global leader in terms of manufacturing arms (57.9 percent of top 100 producer’s revenue accrues to U.S. firms) and buying them (36 percent of total).
The better technologies of weapons, the best war planes, drones produced by developed countries specially United States have given new way of race of arms in which poor states or under developed states buy more weapons to make themselves capable to face their foe.
Such nations are South Korea which had increased its arms sale up to 20.6 percent as threat from North Korea increased recently, Ukraine’s state owned Ukroboronprom, the country’s only representative in top 100 arm’s manufacture list had increased sale by 25.1 % and its military budget had increased, Russia had too increased its sale along with China.
Middle Eastern countries, Eastern European countries along with North African countries also came in race due to changing political dynamics/condition and dependency on strong countries. Russia’s involvement in Syria is a new sign of its increased military capability after a big silence since end of cold war. Russia is marking on its geo-political field in and around Middle East.5
The Trump administration’s new national defence strategy recently announced by defence Secretary James Mattis, signals the return to a global arms race and “great power” competition between the U.S., and its now officially named strategic rivals – Russia and China. The strategy document says that Trump’s “America first” includes military advancement. It includes inter-state strategic competition, not terrorism, is now the primary concern in U.S. national security and will fight to lead in every domain air, land, sea, space and cyberspace. Many political scientists accept that Maulana Azad Library, Aligarh Muslim6 University balance of power among strategic rivals is must for peace.
5 hptts://www.bloomberg.com accessed on 28 Jan 2018 6 hptts://washingtonpost.com/news uploaded on 26 Jan 2018 accessed on 2 Feb 2018 71
Chapter - 3
United states have not conducted any nuclear test since 1992, when President George H.W. Bush declared a self imposed testing moratorium now, Trump administration ordered the department to be ready, for the first time, to conduct a short notice nuclear test in as little as six months.
Others think that this test is to show Russia’s Vladimir Putin, Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khomeini, North Korea’s Kim Jong-un the power of United States. However Trump has not ordered such test. To prevent nuclear war and the spread of weapons to non- nuclear states, the strategy of republican and democratic commanders in chief alike has been to reduce nuclear arsenals and forge new arms-control agreements.
Trump administration has signed off on a $1.2 trillion plan to over haul the entire nuclear-weapons complex at Nevada testing ground. Trump has authorized a new nuclear war head, the first in 34 years. He is also funding research and development on a mobile medium-range missile. This new weapon test comes under 30 year old cold war nuclear-forces agreement with Russia, though Russia has already violated the agreement.7
The pentagon’s draft review if approved by U.S President Donald Trump would actually expand the conditions under which America would use nuclear weapons, according to former U.S. ambassador to Germany, Richard Burt, a former U.S. chief negotiator of the strategic arms reduction treaty and co-author Jon Wolfehal, the senior director of arms control at national security council, added that nuclear posture review (NPR) sought to add two new nuclear weapons to the American arsenal and would “significantly lower the threshold for nuclear use”.
This include a new type of low-yield weapon, also known as “tactical” nukes that could be as destructive as the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki at the end of World War II. Pentagon argues that by having more, smaller nukes it will counter adversaries’ “mistaken confidence” that the United States would not respond to Maulanaanother country Azadusing its own Library, low-yield bomb. Aligarh So Mr. Burt Muslimbelieves that deterrence University aspect of the nuclear program is important as it sends strong message to rival countries of United States which possess nuclear weapons like Russia and North Korea and sends strong message to China too. Here by production and testing nuclear
7 time.com/5128394/donald-trump-nuclear-poker accessed on 15 Feb 2018. 72
Chapter - 3
weapons it is big threat but at the same time it is much important for creating balance of power for reducing nuclear risks. Mr. Burt believes that review falls “woefully short” in setting out a way of ending the “action-reaction” cycle in which the U.S. is increasingly engaged with Russia.
Russia is now in process of rebuilding much of the Soviet Union’s strategic nuclear arsenal, including mobile, intercontinental-range ballistic missiles and a new fleet of missile armed submarines, “written in article by Mr. Burt, “United States has started trillion dollar plus modernization programme of its own, including new submarine and land- based missiles and a new stealth bomber armed with a new stealth, long- range cruise missile”.
The review leaked by Pentagon that the U.S. modernization programme ordered by former President Barak Obama, could even be increased beyond submarine launched warhead and Sea-launched cruise missiles. The article also says that “this ongoing arms competition is fuelling a new dangerous dynamic that could threaten the security of Russia and the United States. However the situation leads to an action reaction cycle of new nuclear deployments similar to the 1960s and throughout the 1980s that led to two sides to deployments of thousands of nuclear arms use by accident or through miscalculation.8
In past, the U.S. and Russia have agreed to limit nuclear weapons by signing agreements and treaties, this includes the 2010 new start agreement that limits each country to 1550 nuclear warheads another agreement was of intermediate-range nuclear forces treaty, which bans both sides from deploying medium range ground- launched nuclear missiles. It was a treaty because of which Europe has enjoyed 30 years of stability. In a report published in the New York Times that policy review also outlines changes to the threshold at which America could respond with nuclear weapons – including massive cyber attack, and nuclear weapon will be used only in extreme condition where extreme condition includes attacks on the U.S. allies or Maulanapartner civilianAzad popu Library,lation or infrastructure, Aligarh their command Muslim and control, University or warming and attack assessment capabilities.9
8 www.news.com.au accessed on 21 Jun 2018 9https:// www.news.com.au accessed on 21 Jun 2018 73
Chapter - 3
Arms race
These are only nine countries which own nuclear weapons. But only five countries possess legal weapons, these are Russia, United Kingdom, France, China and United States. North Korea is the recent developer of nuclear weapons. Russia developed nuclear programme in 1949 while United States was first to develop nuclear weapons in 1945. Russia and United States share 93 percent of all nuclear warheads.10
Berlin (Germany) does not own nuclear weapons but Pentagon maintained nuclear warheads in Germany as part of a military presence to deter Soviet invasion of Western Europe. German foreign Minister Gabriel said that Europe must lead the way in pushing for nuclear disarmament after Washington proposed upgrading the United States nuclear arsenal. So in Europe there should be new initiatives for arms control and disarmament. President Donald Trump said upgrading the U.S. arsenal and complementing massive “strategic” bombs with smaller “tactical” weapons was aimed at making use of nuclear weapons less likely.
Germany’s top diplomat called for “existing arms control treaties to be upheld unconditionally” and Berlin would press its allies and partners for worldwide disarmament which was stated aim of U.S. nuclear policy under former President Barack Obama. The U.S. nuclear review comes on the heels of condemnations from Russia, China, North Korea and Iran.11
2017 estimated global nuclear warhead-
Countries Warheads First nuclear test United states 6,800 1945 Russia 7,000 1949 France 300 1960 United Kingdom 215 1952 China 270 1964 Pakistan 140 1972 India 130 1974 MaulanaIsrael Azad Library,80 Aligarh1950s Muslim University North Korea 15 2006 (www.armscontrol.org)
10 www.independent.comUK uploaded on 6 January 2016 accessed on 26 Feb 2018 11 https://www.france24.com/.../20180204-europe-must-brake-mounting-nuclear-arms-race: updated 4 Feb 2018 accessed on 2 March 2018 74
Chapter - 3
The world’s nuclear armed states posses a combined total of roughly 15,000 nuclear warheads however, more than 90 percent belong to Russia and United States in which 9,600 warheads are in military service.
Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT)
The United States and other allies initiated the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT) in 1968 and comprehensive nuclear test ban treaty (CTBT) in 1996 though India, Israel, and Pakistan never signed the NPT and possess nuclear arsenals.
The concern is that many countries had initiated a secret nuclear programme like Iraq, North Korea and Iran, Libya and Syria too were suspected of pursuing the nuclear programme. China, India and Pakistan are all pursuing new ballistic missile, cruise missile, and sea based nuclear delivery systems.
India and Pakistan had demonstrated their nuclear weapon capabilities with one by one test in 1998. Israel neither admits nor denies its possession of nuclear weapons however it is believed that it owns nuclear weapons although, it is unclear how much it have. These arsenals are based on the amount of fissile material which is highly enriched uranium and plutonium.12
Nuclear Weapons in Middle East
Like Iran many Middle Eastern countries have either announced plans to explore atomic energy or have signed nuclear cooperation agreements: Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Egypt, UAE, Jordan, Morocco, Tunisia, Turkey, Syria, Kuwait, Qatar and Oman while Yemen and Libya had cancelled their nuclear programmes every country gives the reason for their nuclear programmes as a peaceful programme for technological development but there is the fear that these countries may use this nuclear energy for making bombs and other destructive arms.
Nuclear development in Middle East
MaulanaIraq - asAzad we all know Library, that nuclear weaponAligarh has its historyMuslim and association University from the time of Saddam Hussein and the Iraq war is well known as war against weapons of mass destruction but before that the effort of Iraq to build nuclear reactor facility were
12 https://www.armscontrol.org-nuclear-weapons update on Jan 2018 accessed on 5 Feb 2018 75
Chapter - 3
dashed with an Israeli airstrike in 1981. The new government of Iraq had requested nuclear countries to help Iraq for building nuclear reactor for peaceful purposes at the September 2017 meeting of the United Nations. Iraqi foreign minister Ibrahim Al- Jafari attended the meeting.13 After the defeat of Iraq in 1991 war due to U.N. inspection the missile projects in Iraq with foreign assistance got stopped though it had carried various ballistic missile systems under the restriction of the Gulf war ceasefire resolution.14
Saudi Arabia- In May 2008, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia agreed to have nuclear cooperation relationship and Saudi Arabia joined the proliferation security initiative (PSI). In August 2009, the Saudi Arabia’s minister of water and electricity announced that the Kingdom was working on plans for its first nuclear power plant. In 2010, July France and Saudi Arabia announced the signing of nuclear cooperation pact in order to develop atomic energy. King Abdullah in January 2012 signed an agreement with China for cooperation in the development and use of atomic energy for peaceful purposes. GH Hitachi Nuclear Energy and Toshiba/ Westinghouse signed agreements with the Exelon Nuclear partners to pursue a reactor contraction deal with the King Abdullah for nuclear and renewable energy (KA- CARE). In May 2014 it was in BBC news that the Saudi Arabia had invested in Pakistan for nuclear weapons projects and can get it, infact in 2014, May the King Abdullah city for nuclear and renewable energy (KA- CARE) started working with the Finnish radiation and nuclear safety authority (STUK) to recruit and train workers for the plant, and establish safety standards. It is also said that Saudi Arabia signed a secretive nuclear cooperation agreement with North Korea in March 2015. Saudi Arabia signed an agreement with Russia in June 2015 to cooperate on nuclear energy development in July 2015 Saudi Arabia announced their intention to develop a military nuclear programme within a decade.15 In 2016 China inked a deal to invest $ 2.43 billion to build a nuclear manufacturing equipment industrial cluster in Saudi Arabia, and Russia wanted to expand its limited foot print in the region with an attractive offer to build nuclear Maulanareactors in Saudi Azad Arabia. Such Library, offers are what Aligarh Mark Hibbs calls Muslim “geostrategic University nuclear exports” the use of nuclear trade to build political relations and acquire leverage over
13 www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org accessed on 5 March 2018
14 www.nti.orgweapons updated on 1 Feb 2003 accessed on 10 March 2018 15 www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org accessed on 5 March 2018 76
Chapter - 3
key countries. So United States is taking steps to counter the Russian and Chinese nuclear export strategy. U.S. energy secretary Rick Perry met with Saudi leadership to prepare for negotiations over a nuclear cooperation agreement, which is required by U.S. law in order to transfer nuclear materials, equipment, or components. Some nonproliferation advocates argue that U.S. officials should use these talks to pressure Saudi to renounce acquiring uranium enrichment or reprocessing capability – the so called “gold standard” agreement.16
Syria - since 2001-2007, Syria is believed to have been building a gas-cooled reactor similar to the plutonium production unit at Yongbyong in North Korea however this plant was destroyed by an Israeli airstrike in 2007 and all remains were subsequently demolished by the Syrian government. In 2011, the Syrian atomic commission published a proposal for a new nuclear power plant by 2020. Assad controlled Syria is a non-nuclear weapon state party to the non-proliferation treaty and had a comprehensive nuclear safeguards agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Syria’s nuclear aspiration can be seen back from 1980s and in 1991 China agreed to construct Syria’s first research reactor at Der Al-Hadjar, the SRR-1 which was destroyed by Israel.17
Syria possesses chemical weapon programmes also. Its chemical warfare programme was earlier started around 1973 which was supplied by Egypt before the October war with Israel. Syria is suppose to have the capability to produce and weaponizes nerve agents such as Sarin and VX, and blister agents such as mustard.
There are thought to be at least three facilities in Syria that are currently producing chemical weapons near Damascus, Hama, and safari village in Aleppo. Countries like Germany and Israel suspect that Syria owns anthrax, botulinum toxin and ricin.
Syria’s only nuclear reactor is a 30 megawatt research reactor in Der Al-Hadjar which is under IAEA inspection safe guard. Russia had extended support to Syria by 18 Maulanasupplying Azad at least one Library, light water reacto Aligarhr, with IAEA safeguardMuslim measures. University Jordan- in an interview by Jordanian King Abdullah in January 2007, he stated that Jordon is interested in acquiring nuclear power surely, for peaceful and energy
16 https://cornegieendowment.org/publications accessed on 12 March 2018 17 www.nti.org/learncountries/syria update April, 2017 accessed on 14 March 2018 18 www.nti.org uploaded on 1 Feb 2003 accessed on 13 March 2018 77
Chapter - 3
purposes. In August 2007, a committee for nuclear strategy set out a programme for development of nuclear power. In 2008 Jordan signed an agreement with the Atomic Energy of Canada to persue a study on building a reactor using natural uranium fuel for power.19 Jordan imports over 95% of its energy needs, at a cost of about one fifth of this GDP Jordan’s committee for nuclear strategy, setup in 2007, set out a programme for nuclear power to provide 30% of electricity by 2030. In March 2017 an agreement was signed between JAEC (Jordan’s committee for nuclear strategy) and King Abdullah city for atomic and renewable energy (KACARE) Saudi Arabia for a construction of two small modular reactors (SMRs) in Jordan for the production of electricity and desalinated water and for uranium exploration and mining in central Jordan. Jordan had signed nuclear cooperation agreements with France, Canada, UK and Russia and is developing its plans in line with the IAEA recommendations. It has signed a nuclear cooperation agreements with China for uranium mining nuclear advancement agreements with South Korea, Japan, Spain, Italy, Romania, Turkey, and Argentina related to infrastructure including nuclear power and desalination however full nuclear cooperation agreement with USA is pending Jordan had joined the Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) in 2007 along with that it had safeguards agreement in force with the IAEA since 1978, and an additional protocol 20 21 in force since 1998. ,
Egypt’s nuclear programme was launched in 1954. Egypt got its first nuclear plant from the Soviet Union in 1961.
President Gamal Abd Al-Nasser inaugurated the two megawatt reactor at Inchass, in the Nile Delta, however its nuclear ambition came to halt after the defeat at the hands of Israel. Egypt has signed (NPT) nuclear non-proliferation treaty in 1968. Egypt worked on developing nuclear potential designated for use in power engineering agriculture, medicine, biotechnology and genetics. Industrial incorporation of four explored uranium deposits is planned in which extraction and enrichment of uranium Maulanafor subsequent useAzad as fuel Library, for atomic power Aligarh plants is planne Muslimd. In 1975, theUniversity U.S. agreed to supply Egypt with power reactors. The U.S promised to provide Egypt with eight nuclear power plants and cooperation agreements were signed under IAEA
19 www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org accessed on 5 March 2018 20 www.worldnuclear.org update on Nov 2017, accessed on 16 Feb 2018 21 https://fas.org/nuke.guide accessed on 16 Feb 2018 78
Chapter - 3
along with Egypt and USA. Egypt consented to NPT in 1981. It was the plan of Anwar Sadat the President of Egypt to build two nuclear reactors power station along the Mediterranean coast, but he was assassinated that year, in the mean time Egypt kept doing efforts for attaining nuclear weapons with China, Russia, and joint projects with Saudi Arabia and Syria. In 1992 deal was done with Argentina and Russia for MGD- 20 cyclotron accelerator. From 1974 Egypt came forward to favour nuclear free Middle East. In 2007 President Mubarak relaunched Egypt’s plan to start nuclear power plants under the supervision of IAEA which approved al-Dabaa site in Mediterranean coast, but due to revolution it got held up.
Egypt is more known for its possession of chemical weapons. During Yemeni civil war Egypt had used mustard and phosgene (1962-1967) it also has nerve agent and psychoactive chemical capabilities. Egypt with the cooperation of Iraq and Argentina had started missile development programme in 1980s to develop short range missile. With the help of North Korea it had developed scud-B and enhanced scud-C in the year 2001 Egypt had entered in an agreement to purchase North Korea’s 1000 km – range No-dong missile.22
Libya - After the Iraq war and overthrow of Saddam Hussein, Muammar Al- Qaddafi’s apparent decision to renounce weapons of mass destructions directly shows the eagerness of states to have it to create fear in region. The U.S. government put a condition that Libya should take responsibility of downing of Pan Am flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland in 1988 and after Saudi mediation Libya turned over two intelligence officers implicated in the Pan Am 103 attack to the Netherlands for trial to Scotland and in 2003 United States lifted sanctions after fulfilling all conditions.23 Libya joined IAEA in 1963. It was actually estimated that if not checked Libya can become threat for proliferation of weapons of mass destruction which includes nuclear weapons. The chemical weapons fear is much more than nuclear one. The U.S. secret agency reported before 2003 that, Libya may be able to produce Maulanadeployable Azad weapon byLibrary, 2007. Aligarh Muslim University Nuclear research centre is located at Tajura, south east of Tripoli was provided by the former Soviet Union and students were trained along with technicians which was in
22 https://www.nti.org/analysis/articles accessed on 2 March 2018 23 www.brookings.edu uploaded on 23 Jan 2004 accessed on 1 Feb 2018. 79
Chapter - 3
small scale research reactor, no doubt under IAEA safeguards. Libya did efforts in bilateral negotiations to secure nuclear research facilities and power plants. In 1974 Libya had signed treaty of nuclear cooperation with Argentina. Libya had occupied uranium enriched Aouzou strip in Chad in 1975, Libya had attained “yellow cake” from Niger in 1978, in 1978 Libya and India came forward for peaceful application of nuclear energy. In 1976 France agreed to build a nuclear research plant in Libya, Qaddafi took help of other countries like China, Pakistan, Japan and even Belgium firms for supplying needed equipment. However U.S. objected and Belgium decided to refuse the U.S. $1 billion contract in 1984. Russia helped the construction in Sirt (Surt) region of 880-megawatt power station. After the suspension of U.N. sanction against Libya in 1999 it became more active in developing nuclear technologies. Qaddafi in an interview to Al-Jazeera demanded the dismantling of weapons of mass destruction of Israel or Arabs must be given right to possess the weapons. During U.S. operation in 2003 uranium-centrifuge parts and vessel carrying nuclear component was reconverted. On 19 December 2003 Libya agreed to destroy all weapons of mass destruction including chemical, biological and nuclear after nine months secret talks with U.S. and British officials.
In 2004 Saif Al-Islam Gaddafi informed about $ 40 million investment on nuclear projects. On 27 Jan 2004, the U.S. airlifted nuclear weapon components from Libya. It was the agreement of Gaddafi on 19 Dec 2003 which made this airlift possible with consent on the condition of lifting sanctions imposed on Libya by U.S.24
IRAN- In 2002 international interest in Iran came in focus after two nuclear sites was revealed by an exiled Iranian resistance group and it was believed that Iran had built all basic things which is must for producing enriched uranium which could fuel nuclear weapons as well as nuclear reactors. The sites included a uranium mine at Saghand a yellow cake production plant near Ardakan, a pilot uranium enrichment plant at Natanz and a commercial scale enrichment facility at Natanz. At Bushehr Maulanawork is going Azadon 1,000 megawattLibrary, nuclear Aligarh reactor and buildingMuslim of heavy University water production plant at Arak, where Iran planned to build a 40 megawatt heavy water reactor. From March 2003, IAEA started the investigation of Iran’s nuclear projects. However Iran reiterated that its nuclear projects are legal and authorized by its
24 www.globalsecurity.org-libyan-nuclear-weapons uploaded on 24 July 2011 accessed on 13 Feb 2018 80
Chapter - 3
membership as non-nuclear weapon state in the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT) which guarantees its members the right to “develop nuclear energy for peaceful purposes” but U.S. alleged that Iran’s nuclear programme is nothing but a nuclear weapon effort. The JCPOA (Joint comprehensive plan of action) which is an agreement of Iran with six major world power on July 14, 2015 had also stepped back from its position, as being party to it, will allow Iran to develop a commercial scale uranium enrichment programme after 10 years of accord. Iran has uranium deposit at Saghand in the province of Yazd. This mine is the key part of Iran’s plan to produce nuclear fuel indigenously. According to IAEA the Saghand mine has an estimated annual production capacity of 50 tons of uranium while the Gchine mine which is in south of Iran near Bandar Abbas had around 21 tons of uranium per year. In 2003 Iranian authorities accepted producing Yellowcake at a milling plant in Ardakan in Yazd Province. Infact in 2000 the government of Iran informed the IAEA about the plant for uranium conversion plant at Isfahan where there is nuclear technology centre (ENTC).25 Israel considers Iran’s possession of nuclear weapon as threat to its security and region and the agreement (JCPOA) in which Iran has agreed with the super power called P5+1. The U.S., U.K., France, Russia, China and Germany to control its nuclear activity this agreement says that
Iran will reduce its stockpile of enriched uranium which is used to make reactor fuel and nuclear weapons which to reduce production up to 98 that is 300 kg for 15 years.
The centrifuges will also be cut by two-third. All this conditions on applicable for 15 years. Though many countries had nuclear weapons but Iran’s lost its trust because despite being a signatory of (NPT) nuclear non-proliferation treaty it had hidden clandestine uranium enrichment programme for 18 years by which the fissile material for nuclear weapon is produced.
Iran insisted continuously that nuclear aspiration is for peaceful purpose not for bomb. MaulanaIran also Azad raised voice Library, against Israel’s Aligarh nuclear project Muslim which is believed University to be well developed but Israel neither accepted nor denied, Iran considers this negligence of IAEA and international community as double standard attitude Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on this agreement as “it is a bad mistake of historic
25 www.iranwatch.org uploaded on 9 Aug 2016 accessed on 3 March 2018 81
Chapter - 3
proportions” that will allow Iran to “continue to pursue its aggression and terror in the region”.
Along with Israel, Saudi Arabia too felt uncomfortable with agreement, here Sunni- Shia rivalry took big form of regional rivalry and another silent war of regional hegemony got a new kick. Countries of the region like, Israel, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia had warned about that and to make them equipped and safe they may go for nuclear development.
Paula Desutter- After the death of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini the leading theologies of the country taking quotations from holy Qur’an declared that “harnessing nuclear energy whether for civil or military purposes, was contrary to the most basic precepts of Islam”. There are many factors that compelled Iran for nuclear power program. Evolution and growth in world energy market in the 1973-74 period due to the fear of increase in crude oil prices and uncertainties of oil supply as seen in Arab oil embargo led the major countries of world specially western countries to develop some cheap, abundant and inexhaustible indigenous source of energy and nothing can be much better than nuclear power. To avoid dependency on import of oil especially West Asian oil, nuclear option was much more attractive. Many developing and industrial countries mainly Japan, United States of America, Brazil, South Korea, West Germany, France and Great Britain called for growth and use of nuclear power. This race of attaining nuclear energy was one of basic factors behind Iran being the part of nuclear race. Other major factor is rise in the price of oil periodically, while price of nuclear power is more or less stabilized. Iran willed to export oil to earn foreign exchange and use nuclear energy for civil purposes at comparatively low cost. Iran also preserved oil for more important use in petrochemical industries and found substitute of oil in nuclear energy.
Prestige and position is also an inevitable factor behind nuclear energy production and operation. Iran launched a large scale nuclear programme under substantial pressure Maulanato recycle its increasing Azad petrodollar Library, earning thoughAligarh purchase Muslimof massive quantities University of goods and services from the major western industrial countries. Next important factor for increases in nuclear project is huge commission on contracts and approval of major projects according to businessmen and government officials close to Iranian nuclear programme. It accepts that the commissions on the nuclear reactor purchases
82
Chapter - 3
were up to 20 percent of the total contract, or several hundred million dollars per reactor.
The Islamic government has not yet made a formal announcement about attaining the nuclear power programme. Iranian clergymen have advocated the development of ‘Islamic Bomb’26. Iran had developed range of technologies including uranium enrichment, warhead design and delivery systems etc. In 2017 in a report by UN, it affirmed that Iran is complying with JCPOA but raised alarm for Iran’s ballistic missile activity. On 25 July 2017 the House of Representative of USA passed H.R. 3364, which is the countering adversarial Act, which would impose new sanction on Iran, North Korea and Russia. The IAEA finds that till August 2017 Iran possessed low-enriched uranium heavy water up to limit which is permissible but on 22 September 2017 Iran parades its new medium range ballistic missile Khorramshahr which covers the range of about 2,000 km. President Trump who is known for his anti-Islamic image from his presidential campaign was dissatisfied with deal under Obama’s regime. Trump says if his concerns are not resolved he will terminate the agreement.27 Trump stated further to sanction the Islamic revolutionary guard corps (IRGC) as this group is supposed to support terrorism Trump Administration announces 14 more sanctions list. For Trump the deal gave Iran far too much in exchange for far too little and for continuation of deal there are two possible paths either fix the deal’s disastrous flaws or United States will withdraw.28 Deputy foreign minister Abbas Araqchi warned that Tehran would itself revoke the nuclear deal if it will not get economic gains.
United Nations inspectors said that Iran had continued to limit its uranium enrichment programme and cooperated with inspectors however Tehran told United Nations inspectors of its plan to build nuclear reactors for ships despite the agreement with world powers which stops its nuclear advancement programme.29 However, finally the United States withdrew from this deal in 2018.
MaulanaSaudi Arabia Azad-Israel Library, relation - The regionalAligarh hegemony Muslim and internal rivalriesUniversity among Arab states had compelled both Saudi Arabia and Israel to join hands to fight against
26 Bijan Mossavar –Rahmani , Energy Policy in Iran Domestic Choices and International Implications, Elsevier Science Limited, 1981, p. 27,95 27 www.armscontrol.org accessed on 16 Feb 2018 28 www.whiltehouse.govt accessed on 12 Jan 2018 29 www.dw.com accessed on 17 March 2018 83
Chapter - 3
their “common threat” Iran. U.S. played key role in creating hegemonic system to dominate west friendly states. Saudi Arabia gave the reason for ties with Israel for making the region the land of peace but the basic reason is to maintain Sunni influence in the region over Shia that is “Iran”. The other major interest behind flexibility in relation is common strategic interest with other Arab countries in region. The Arab countries other than Saudi Arabia and Qatar like Egypt, Jordan and Gulf states have two strategic threats Iran and the Salafi or radical Islamic terrorism. Due to vacuum in the region external intervention grew like Russia in Syria and growth of Iranian influence which is the regional threat in Middle East. So for Saudi Arabia, Israel becomes the only choice for reliable and potential ally. Arab states are more concerned towards the safety of their regime and Israel has all nuclear, military and other technical advancement that led the Arab countries specially Saudi Arabia towards stronger force in the region. In a recent interview given to Saudi news, Israel’s chief of staff offered to share all intelligence with Saudi Arabia on Iran.30 Saudi Arabia and Israel’s relationship goes on this old proverb “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” and here the common enemy is “Iran” Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman called for anti-Iran ally in Middle East, nobody can be a better ally than Israel with their external common friend America. A common Arab considers Israel as its enemy, occupier and illicit state so this alliance will hurt a common Arab who do not recognize Israel as their neighbour but the Saudi Arabian government’s and Israel’s relation is now an “open secret” however Saudi Arabia preferred off-the-record consultations and coordination on security and Intelligence services, but they avoid the diplomatic channels as Israel is still an unpopular and hated state.31 Saudi Arabia struggles with bad International image, it is supposed to be most strict undemocratic, authoritarian regime which supports terrorist groups inspired by Salafi school of thought which is followed by Saudi Arabia. So to wash such allegation and to reform the image at international level Saudi Arabia took step forward towards grooming relations with Israel. Prince Salman is young 32 years old, Maulanacrown prince who Azad controlled Library, internal and external Aligarh policies of Muslim Saudi Arabia. HisUniversity main target is to curtail Iran, Hezbollah, ISIS and Muslim brotherhood influence.32 Saudi Arabia’s intervention in Yemen civil war, Lebanon, and Qatar (however it failed and
30 www.aljazeera.com 21 Nov 2017, accessed on 26 Feb 2018 31 http://www.bbc.news/com uploaded on 15 Nov 2017, accessed on 15 March 2018 32 www.pism.pl uploaded on 28 Dec 2017, accessed on 9 March 2018 84
Chapter - 3
blockade was unsuccessful) shows new era of Saudi Arabia’s politics which is moving beyond Arabism and Islam. Earlier Saudi has no historic ties with Israel and it was the part of Arab boycott of the Zionist state since 1948. Major General Anwar Eshki of Saudi Arabia said that the communication and cooperation between the two countries is based on cultural and humanitarian base. According to Eshki” Saudi Arabia’s main goal is the principles adopted by the United Nations and what the Arabs agreed upon in the Arab peace initiative”.
There is also news that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman visited Israel but this visit was secret and not officially acclaimed by both sides.33 If we go back to history, Saudi Arabia had supported Palestinian rights to sovereignty and called for withdrawal from the west bank and territories occupied by Israel since 1967. It is known from history that Saudi Arabia never became the part of Arab-Israel war. Saudi Arabia even allowed its flight path over its territory during operation opera (1981) when Israel attacked Iraqi nuclear reactor. Saudi Arabia officially supported the peaceful resolution of the Arab-Israel conflict and called for two state solutions. Saudi Arabia ended ban on Israeli goods and services following World Trade organizations rule where one state can’t have total ban, but till August 2006 Saudi Arabia’s boycott was not cancelled. It is also important to notice that Saudi Arabia rejected Camp David Accord. In 2011 Israel approved German sale of 20 leopard tanks to Saudi Arabia. After recent upheaval in Middle East and there was lot of political turmoil in the region, Israel viewed Saudi Arabia as “guarantor of stability”. There are informations of regular secret meetings of MOSSAD and Saudi intelligence agency. A London based Arab newspaper Rai al-Youm reported that Israel had offered to provide Saudi Arabia the Iron Dome technology which shields against rockets from cross borders. Another political analyst by the name “Mujtahid” leaked information that the drone assembly plant that is being developed with cooperation with South- Africa is actually an Israeli-Saudi Arabian deal for getting Israeli drones via South Africa. In South Africa these drones are first disassembled and shipped to MaulanaSaudi Arabia Azad where Library,they are assembled Aligarh again. This is Muslim a kind of trick toUniversity wash Israel’s closeness as in Saudi Arabia, there is sence of hatred for Israel in common Arabs. Israel’s defence minister said that Saudi Arabia had given written assurances over freedom of passages in Tiran straits after Egypt had agreed to transfer the Red sea
33 https://www.middleeastmonitor.com uploaded on 25 Oct 2017, accessed on 14 March 2018 85
Chapter - 3
Islands of Tiran and Sanafir to Saudi Arabia in the year 2016 and Saudi Arabia accepted to follow the terms of Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty.34
In the end we can say that Arab countries had accepted that there is no option left for them except to recognize Israel and to maintain courteous relations with it because the peace in Arabian Peninsula is only possible if Arab countries are friends with Israel.
Saudi Arabia Iran relations- Iran was one of the largest Gulf state. From 1960s it had engaged in an extensive military build-up which had raised an alarm among its regional rivals like Iraq and Saudi Arabia. In early 1970s Iran had also emphasized on economic growth by increasing oil prices. Iran actually was in best position to concert its national resources into strong political influence in the region. Iran’s Shah Abbas (1571-1629) made an alliance with Britain which was having trade interest in the gulf to remove Portuguese from Hormuz. This alliance achieved its goal in 1622. Iran extended its rule over Hormuz, Bahrain, Qashm, and Bandar Gombrun which is Bandar Abbas now. The Iranian Prime Minister Amir Abbas Hoveida, had told Sir Denis Wright that Iran would not tolerate a power vacuum left by Britain in the Gulf, so as to ensure that hostile forces did not take over in the area. From the year 1965 onwards Iran’s growth rate annually became 8-10 percent and low inflation, oil revenues were on rise and there was a rapid increase in military spending and expansion of the armed force. From 1964 Iran no longer received American aid. In 1965 Iran had given warning to USA by signing a trade credit agreement with the USSR and East European countries and by 1966 economic credits was given by Soviet Union to Iran totaling 346 million dollars including 289 million dollars to build a steel mill and to construct gas pipeline. In 1967 Soviet arms deal of 110 million dollars was done followed by 540 million dollars trade agreement. Iran had also taken 158 million dollars worth of credits from east European countries like Romania. Iran was offered better terms by eastern bloc. Iran had tried to improve its national security posture by enhancing relations with its neighbour, the USSR.35
MaulanaThe dispute between Azad two MiddleLibrary, Eastern nationsAligarh has deep Muslim religious, historic University and political roots. Saudi Arabia is strict conservative Wahabi state while Iran is Shia state. Along with this ideological fight there is power struggle in the region. They
34 https://ipfs.io>ipfs accessed on 24 March 2018 35 Faisal bin Salman al-Saud. Iran, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf: Power Politics in Transition, I.B. Tauris Publishers, 2004, pp.14-18 86
Chapter - 3
support different militant groups related to their ideology – like Iran supports Hezbollah while Saudi Arabia is supposed to back and fund the extremist groups like Al- Qaida. Saudi Arabia always felt insecure because of growing influence of Iran in the region and to counter the influence of Shia Iran. Saudi Arabia allied to Sunni government in the region for the formation of the Gulf co-operation council Saudi Arabia supported Iraq in Iran-Iraq war which had begun in 1980, clashes in Hajj in which hundreds of Iranian pilgrims were killed by Saudi riot Police. Saudi Arabia had even suspended diplomatic ties with Iran for 3 years. In Arab spring in Syria, Iran on one hand supported Basher Al-Assad while Saudi Arabia backed the anti-Assad groups which converted into civil war. Saudi Arabia also curbed the Shia protest in Bahrain against the government. The arrest and death sentence of Shia Cleric Sheikh Nimr, which was internationally criticized by human right organizations and Shia community all around the world, that has also increased unrest between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia was not comfortable with the Iran’s nuclear deal and has not welcomed this step of United States.36 The strained relationship in between the two states is not new but can be traced out from British departure from Arab land. The disputes aroused from Iranian-Arab territorial claims over Bahrain and the Hormuz Island there was also the maritime dispute between Iran and Saudi Arabia and this rift of Shia Iran and Sunni Arabia even dominated the Gulf agenda.
Another reason of conflict was over the offshore oil in the mid Gulf. In the year 1960 the two countries were accusing each other that their respective oil companies were drilling in the disputed waters. From Iran the company IPAC (Iranian pan American Oil Company) and Saudi Arabia’s Arabian American Oil Company (ARAMCo) were drilling in the disputed water. Negotiations began in 1964 to resolve the dispute and Saudi-Iranian continental self agreement signed in Tehran in December 1965. The offshore dispute between Saudi Arabia and Iran on disputed waters in the gulf caused Maulanagreat rift Azad between Gulf’sLibrary, two largest Aligarh countries Bahrain Muslim issue also University attracted world media shah told the U.S. National Security Adviser in 1968 Walt Roster that he will not use force to gain Bahrain but Iran’s claim is 150 years old so it can be discussed with some justification. Shah made offer to British ambassador who in a telegram to
36 www.bbc.com uploaded on 4 Jan 2016, accessed on 18 March 2018 87
Chapter - 3
the foreign office, reported that Shah had said that he did not wish to occupy Bahrain, … but since every Iranian had been brought up to regard Bahrain as Iranian territory he must have some quid pro quo,’ Shah suggested for the plebiscite, and he also asked for acquisition of the Tunbs and Abu Musa Island to Iran near strait of Hormuz.37
In recent years Saudi Arabia broke all diplomatic ties with Qatar along with other gulf countries alleging Qatar of supporting extremist groups and over links with Iran. Saudi Arabia supported Prime Minister of Lebanon Saad Hariri who accused Iran’s control on his country via Shia movement of Hezbollah. Saad Hariri is known for his close relations with Saudi Arabia he even announced his resignation from the Prime Minister’s post from the Riyadh as he was having a fear of being killed and got death threats.38
Iranian President Hassan Rauhani criticized Saudi Arabia leading war in Yemen, which has left at least 10,000 people dead and had caused extreme damage to infrastructure. But it is very clear that war and disaster is ‘great game’ that Saudi Arabia and Iran is playing to undermine each other. It is ideological war between Shia and Sunni states.
Banafsheh Keynoush argues in his book Saudi Arabia and Iran: Friends or Foes? “that the Saudi Iranian political relation began to evolve around three major issues: regional political, oil and international security” Saudi Arabia in terms of area is bigger than Iran, but Iran is ahead of Saudi Arabia from the aspect like population, gross domestic product per capita is US $ 24,847 while Saudi Arabia’s gross domestic product per capita is US $14,403 however military expenditure Saudi Arabia is ahead of Iran with $ 80.8 billion while Iran spends only $25 billion annually. Iran’s ambition was very much clear by its territorial gain with taking ones the Farsi Islands, the greater and lesser Tunbs and Abu Musa in November 1971, and also by an eye on Bahrain had raised an Alarm for Saudi Arabia. Iran-Saudi Arabia proxy wars in Yemen and Syria, the ISIS doing selective killing of Shia in the region, Saudi Arabia’s decision to stop MaulanaIranians from comin Azadg to pe rformLibrary, Hajj, execution Aligarh of Saudi Shia Muslim Cleric Nimr BaqirUniversity al- Nimr and in retaliation attack on Saudi embassy in Tehran, June 17 attack on Iranian parliament which Iran blame to be done by Saudi Arabia, Israel and U.S. and firing of
37 Faisal bin Salman al-Saud. op. cit., pp.20-22 38 https://www.pri.org/country/saudi-arabia accessed on 18 March 2018 88
Chapter - 3
ballistic missiles over Riyadh international airport all shows that these two counties share strained relations. The Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammad Bin Salman has even called the supreme leader of Iran “the new Hitler of the Middle East”.39 From studies we find that, in Middle East, in countries like Yemen, Syria, Lebanon and Iraq all the instability caused by state or non-state actors is a “proxy war” between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Role of U.S and Russia in Middle East: The political history of West Asia revolves around Pax-Britannica, and now around Pax-Americana. Occupation, coup, wars revolutions, violation of human rights institutionalized authoritarianism creation of Israel, plight of Palestinians and Iranian nuclear programme become centre of world politics. Middle East was almost a chessboard for the world powers and is still suffering from world power politics. In 1990s the United States had expanded its security presence in region to contain Saddam Hussein’s Iraq and Iran but after the 9/11 attacks its inducement grew more and after Iraq invasion in 2003 the presence of U.S. lasted up to 2011 and its involvement is still seen.40 The main objectives of United State’s presence are
1. free flow of oil
2. to stop nuclear proliferation
3. to fight against terrorism
4. security of Israel
5. to check democracy.
The involvement of United States and Russia as a competitor in Middle East
The Middle East has again been in focus as Russia’s strategy in Middle East is to lessen the influence United States in region by challenging NATO forces. Russia supported Basher al-Assad, however, Russia had history of softness and friendship for MaulanaSyria by Azadthis Russia Library,is also recapturing Aligarh its position as Muslimwell as military Universitybase in Middle East. Along with Syria, Egypt too had extended relations with Russia by signing arms
39 www.atimes.com/saudi-iran-relations-clash-reginal-leadreship accessed on 28 March 2018 40 Anwar Alam, Contemporary West Asia: Politics and Development, New Century Publications, 2010, p. 26 89
Chapter - 3
agreement in 2014. Egypt has also supported Russia over its support for Assad regime. Russia is also backing Egypt in supporting major role for field Mashal Khalifa Haftar in Libyan government. Russia is also moving towards poor relations with Israel. Netanyahu had made frequent visits to Moscow. All this shows effort of Russia to regain its position in Middle East.41
Arms Import in Middle East
The top 5 Arm exporters in the worlds are
1. United states
2. Russia
3. Germany
4. France
5. China
These countries occupy 74% to total arms exports however, India, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates are the major importers.42
The countries which import arms and ammunitions other than Iran in Middle East are Saudi Arabia which imports arms from United States in 2016 it went up to 1.8 billion dollars and total imports went to 3 billion dollars. Saudi Arabia as major importer in Middle East received almost 20% of total U.S. weapons export. Iraq’s import of arms in 2016 from U.S. goes up to dollar 893 million which is 51.5% of total import in 2016.
In 2016 Israel imported arms of around 526 million dollars which is 86.7% of total import from United States. Its total arms import is of dollar 607 million, the country spends 5.4 % of its G.D.P on defence.
MaulanaEgypt’s arms import Azad had increased Library, 70% around Aligarh 2016. In 2016 Muslim its arms import University from U.S was around dollar 238 million and total arms import was of 1.5 billion dollars of which 16% of arms trade was taken over by United States.
41 https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/03/... accessed on 13 March 2018 42 https://www.aljazeera.com 22 Feb 2017, accessed on 22 March 2018 90
Chapter - 3
Though Morocco has little to do with Middle Eastern politics and strategies but its arms trade cannot be ignored which by 2016 imported arms of 254 million dollars in which U.S. shares of total arms trade is 244 million dollars.
Unites Arab Emirates is also the biggest arms importer from Unites States. U.S. has share of 60.5 % of its total arms import. Its total arms import is about 1.3 billion dollars by 2016 in which U.S. imports upto 773 million dollars.43
BASES OF UNITES STATES IN MIDDLE EAST
U.S. arms sale at such a large scale is also one of the major reasons behind United States security relation in the region. Along with imports, from security point of view a large number of U.S. soldiers are stationed in Middle East where as Udeid Air base is biggest air base around 0 miles from Doha and hosts 10,000 U.S. Military personnel. Bahrain gives naval base to United States where around 7,000 U.S. service members are based at both naval installation and nearby ISA air base. Other than these two countries U.S. soldiers are present in Iraq around 5,165 soldiers Kuwait hosts, 15000 servicemen’s.
Qatar has 10,000 soldiers
- Jordan has 15000 US soldiers
- Oman hosts around 200 US soldiers
- UAE – 5000 army men in UAE
While UAE hosts 5,000 U.S. servicemen44
Saudi Arabia has 64th air Expeditionary Group.
Oman has RAFO Masirah and RAFO Thumrait bases of U.S. Kuwait hosts U.S forces at Ali Al Salem Air Base, Camp Arifjan, Camp Buehring, Kuwait Naval base. Israel the biggest ally of U.S gives port of Haifa to U.S sixth fleet (Navy) and at Maulana Azad Library, Aligarh Muslim University
43 https://247wallst.com/.../2017.../24/countries-buying-the-most-weapons accessed on 24 March 2018 44 https://www.forbes.com/.../niallmccarthy/2017/ accessed on 25 March 2018 91
Chapter - 3
Dimona Radar facility. U.A.E have al Dhafra Air Base, port of Jebel Ali Fujairah Naval base.45
There are the reports that American troops are deployed in 14 Middle Eastern and North African countries along with above discussed countries US troops are active in Lebanon, Syria, Turkey, Jordan Yemen, and Egypt. US have more the 10,00 bases worldwide in which most of them are located in Middle East and around 54,000 troops according to pentagon data, are in Middle East.46
U.S. and Russia regarding Iran
It is clear from study that United States and Russia continue to dominate world sales of conventional arms and Russia, France and Britain came after it in arms trade. China is also a major arms seller of Asia but its arms export have not been technologically competitive with United States, Russia and Europe but China’s market is mostly in developing countries. The Arab Israel conflict which is supposed to be the base of all conflicts in Middle Eastern countries and Arms race but the basic fact behind the regional arms import is the competition between the Arab Gulf states and Iran and in this race Arab Gulf states has led as Iran is under sanctions as well none of seller countries will give Iran its advance technology and arms. Israel holds strong military and advance arms over its neighbours and countries like Egypt, Jordan and Syria is at peace with Israel or lost the competition but the only state that troubles Israel is Iran. Iran still is dependent on 1970s vintage U.S. and European arms and on how to moderate quality imported arms from Russia, China and Vietnam. It possessed combat, aircraft, surface to air missile, land weapons and imported ships of U.S. and Europe before the fall of Shah but sanctions and interstate rivalry and distrust had limited its arms deliveries. Iran has done lot of efforts to produce its own arms,47 but sanctions had paralyzed it. The Russian-Iranian connection in the area of nuclear and missile arms sale is also the reason of stressed relationship between United States and Russia, specifically with regard to bilateral deliberations over non proliferation issues. MaulanaRussia carefully Azadtakes step regardingLibrary, its political Aligarh or bilateral relationsMuslim with Iran University which is its geo-political ally.
45https://www.revolvy.com/page/ List-of-countries-with-overseas-military-bases accessed on 30 March 2018 46 www.iran-daily.com/News/209134.html accessed on 29 March 2018 47 www.csis.org/.../changing-patterns-arms-imports-middle-east-and-north-africa accessed on 23 March 2018 92
Chapter - 3
Russia’s nuclear cooperation with Iran exclusively confined to civilian nuclear plant construction. Russia’s first deputy foreign Minister Vyacheslav Trubnikov in his visit of Iran in 2002 said that “Russia does not accept President George W. Bush’s view that Iran is part of an “axis of evil.” Russia, actually is not interested and serious with the military threat emanating from weapons of mass destruction developed by third world countries and considers this arms race as originated against regional rivals and the U.S. military presence. Iran for Russia is an important counterpart and a big market for Russian military related technological especially when angling decline of Russian military industries. So for Moscow markets of Iran, China, India or Syria is needed to extend its presence in super power politics and no place can be better than Middle East.48
Iran and its missiles-Threat for Israel
Iran has become a centre of missile proliferation. It is accused of supplying arms to non-state actors like Hezbollah, Houthis in Yemen along with Assad’s regime. It was accused of supplying missile and rockets to terrorist organizations.
Iran’s Missiles and its programmes had became threat for Israel and Arab Gulf countries and the role of Iran in Middle Eastern politics cannot be ignored and its relations with non-state actors has became headache for U.S. and its allies.
Maulana Azad Library, Aligarh Muslim University
48 Al J. Venter. Iran’s Nuclear Option: Tehran’s quest for the Atom Bomb, Published by Casemate, 2005, pp.303-304 93
Chapter – 4 Iran’s Nuclear Development and its Impact on West Asia
Maulana Azad Library, Aligarh Muslim University Chapter -4
CHAPTER -4
IRAN’S NUCLEAR DEVELOPMENT AND ITS IMPACT ON WEST ASIA
Nuclear History of Iran
Iran’s will to play the dominant role in the region is not new and its strategic location has made it vital in Middle Eastern politics. Its long Gulf coast and its trade routes through Strait of Hormuz had backed its Gulf interest and desire to be a dominant member. In 1622 after the Anglo-Persian alliance, Persia, today’s Iran had extended its rule over Hormuz, Bahrain, Qeshm and Bandar Abbas earlier known as Bandar Gombrun. Nadir Shah built a large naval force to regain Persia’s Gulf interests and had annexed Bahrain and Muscat.
Later in 1979 with Qajar Dynasty, Iran reestablished its Persian interest in Gulf. In 1840 Haji Mirza Aghassi claimed that all of the waters and islands of Gulf belongs to Persia. 1839 onwards British presence in Persian Gulf can be seen as it was its trade route to India. Britain occupied Aden in 1939. In the mean time in 1908 oil was discovered in Iran and Britain bought 50% share in an Anglo-Iranian oil company and by the end of Second World War Gulf region become important for energy purposes. For Britain Iran, Kuwait and Iraq become centers of economic interest form where oil was imported to Britain. British foreign secretary Ernest Bevin in 1949 accepted the importance of Middle East and he was anxious about the expansion of communism or communist threat in Middle East. His chief of staff in 1946 had argued that if Britain moved out of the Middle East, Russia will move in. British military was based in Egypt, Palestine, Iraq and in the Gulf. This was the period of rise of nationalism in the region to counter this and to stay in the region, Britain compromised on policy of decolonization, non-interference and to achieve socio-economic development of Arabs. In 1946 in order to accommodate moderate Egyptian nationalists Britain had offered to withdrew itself from the Canal Zone but could not due to the end of MaulanaPalestinian Azad mandate Library,as it needed some Aligarh place to be statione Muslimd. In 1953 Universitythe “Operation Ajax” started to overthrow Mosaddegh which was operated by United States and Britain as a retaliation against Mosaddegh’s nationalization of Anglo-Iranian Oil Company but it was more in favour of United States and Britain’s involvement got lessened and U.S. military and economic role in the country had increased.
94 Chapter -4
The threat for U.S and Britain was Soviet Union for this in 1953 U.S. secretary of state Dulles introduced the concept of a ‘northern tier’ policy for Middle East and in 1955 a security pact which is “Baghdad pact” was signed by Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Pakistan along with Britain all these pacts were pro-United States. In the mean time Britain’s position became weakened. So in 1957 a defence document known as the Sandys white paper came out to gain superiority. This white paper emphasized that priority should be given to nuclear weapons. By 1916 Aden became one of the three bases in which at the east of Suez nuclear weapons could be stationed along with Cyprus and Singapore.1
After the collapse of Soviet Union the strategic value of Iran had lessened as Iran was used to be the game changer by pro-Soviet policies and its advancement in Persian Gulf and Soviet collapse had led United States to take harsh policy towards Iran. The 9/11 events had given reason to United States to reshape Middle East the way it suits its interest and policies by eliminating those regimes that were hostile towards America and its Middle Eastern ally Israel. Earlier President Clinton took non- military action against Iran by the strategy of “dual containment.” We can say that after collapse of communism, west had demanded more from Iran and offered less incentive and concessions. George W. Bush and his security team were more inclined towards use of force for changes in Middle East. However in recent past Iranian government specially Ahmadinejad had restored revolutionary behaviour and in particular the anti-imperialist struggle.2 The interest of Iran in attaining nuclear energy can be traced out from 1950s when Shah of Iran got technical assistance under U.S. “atoms for peace program” however this support of U.S. came to an end after Iranian revolution but Iran continued its work on nuclear development and expansion of nuclear fuel cycle, including sophisticated enrichment capabilities which created a tension and threat in international community and led to negotiations and sanctions. The Irony is this that U.S. had for the first time supplied small 5 megawatt research reactors to Tehran nuclear research centre (TNRC) which was fueled by highly Maulanaenriched uranium. Azad The Shah Library, of Iran disclosed Aligarh his plans to install Muslim 23,000 megawatt University of
1 Faisal Bin Salman. Iran, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf power politics in transition, Publisher I.B. Tauris and Co. Ltd- 2003, p. 1,5,6 2 Shireen T. Hunter. Iran Divided, Rowman and Little Field Publishers– 2014, p. 175,196
95 Chapter -4
nuclear power in Iran by the end of the century and founded atomic energy organization of Iran (AEOI) to look after this project.3
According to Akbar Etemad, the president of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) from 1974 to 1978 Iran was already carrying out nuclear research and education at the University of Tehran when the NPT entered into force on March 5, 1970. Iran had done contracts with many nuclear suppliers in Europe and the United States, Iran had done deal with Kraftwerk union (KWV, a Siemens subsidiary) with west Germany to build two 1,2000 megawatt reactors at Bushehr. Iran had done negotiations with the French company Framatome for two 900 megawatt reactors. Iran had invested $ 1 billion in French uranium enrichment plant owned by Eurodif, a European consortium in 1974. In 1970s Iran had also started advancing its local nuclear technologies it had started working on nuclear fuel cycle and development of nuclear research centre at Isfahan along with uranium mining and processing. The Iraq war and Iranian revolutions had badly affected the nuclear programme. The Bushehr nuclear reactors were bombed and major companies including Siemens left the projects.
In 1980s Iran’s nuclear programme again revived under the Presidency of Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani with the support of Russia, China and Pakistan. Iran had signed nuclear cooperation protocol in 1985, 1990 and in 1995. Russia and Iran had cooperated in constructions of the reactor at Bushehr and to supply uranium enrichment plant however Iran could not get this because of U.S. opposition.
In 1990s private firms of Russia and China had helped Iran however there was objection from their governments on nuclear assistance. Pakistan is also blamed for assisting Iran by providing uranium enrichment technology through the black market network by the Pakistani scientist A.Q Khan. By 2003 Iran had developed its own technology for making enriched uranium, the material which is used to fuel nuclear weapon, Iran develops nuclear fuel from two ways uranium enrichment and spent fuel Maulanareprocessing Azad to recover Library, plutonium. Aligarh These material Muslim are “fissile” because University they are unstable and as struck by neutrons fission or split occurs which can be used as fuel in nuclear bomb or can be used as fuel in nuclear reactor. Iran had uranium mine at Saghand in Yazd province. It has an estimated annual production capacity of 50 tons
3 www.nti.org accessed on 26 March 2018
96 Chapter -4
of uranium, another mine, the Gchine in which mining got started in 2004 produces around 21tons uranium per year. The Gchine mine is situated in the south of Iran near Bandar Abbas. After mining uranium ore are processed into a uranium concentrate called yellow cake. This yellow cake is transformed from uranium ore at a milling plant in Ardakan (Yazd) province. China is supposed to transfer the technology of mining at Saghand. After mining and converting into the yellow cake the uranium is converted into gas which is called as uranium hexafluoride (UF6) after which few process more are done to enrich uranium to make it perfect for reactor fuel or nuclear weapons. There is a plant for the uranium conversion at Isfahan. In May 2003, Gholam Reza Aghazadeh head of AEOI said the conversion facility which is at Isfahan Nuclear Technology Centre (INTC) would be used to convert yellow cake in UF6. China had widely supported Iran in establishment of conversion plant. China supplied uranium compounds in 1991, which Iran did not declare to IAEA these
compounds includes 1000 kg of UF6, 400 Kg UF4 and about 400 kg of natural UO2 which were used by Iran in tests for the processes in conversion plant.
Iran’s centrifuge programme was launched in 1985 at facilities controlled by AEOI in Tehran (centrifuge separation works by passing UF6 by high speed rotational machines called centrifuges). There was illegal supply of centrifuge parts to Iran by Abdul Qadir Khan Network in 1994-95 to Iran’s Kalaye electric company in Tehran, Kalaye used to test and assemble centrifuges for uranium enrichment. In 2002 Iran’s centrifuge enrichment programme was moved to Natanz, this site was ment to produce nuclear fuel for power plants using uranium enriched from three to five percent U-235. After his visit in March 2003, IAEA director general Mohammad El- Baradi stated that Natanz site is “nearly ready for operation and a much larger enrichment facility is still under construction”. Iran possessed early European design centrifuge that was under Khan Research Laboratories (KRL) in Pakistan Iran’s first generation centrifuge is refaced as the IR-1. France had presented a paper in suppliers group meeting in May 2003 that Iran had improved Pakistani design which can do Maulanaenrichment on industrialAzad scale. Library, Iran also had Aligarh ability to produce Muslim plutonium, aUniversity second fissile material that is used to fuel nuclear weapons.
Conservatives in Iran control military security system and most of the governmental institutions. Iran had rejected the western ideas over Islamic rule. The Bahrain coup in early 1980s supporting Shiite extremists in Saudi Arabia, taking Abu Musa and
97 Chapter -4
Tunbs, it had also supported extremist movements in Sudan, Egypt and Algeria, backed Hezbollah to conduct proxy war against Israel and Lebanon. In resent time, Iran plays active role in Yemen and Syria by supporting Shia groups like Houthi in Yemen and Assad regime in Syria.4 Iran had trained its forces and had developed its elite special forces and large forces for unconventional warfare which are trained for operations in the Gulf area Iran too has mix of anti-ship missile deployments, sub- marines and mine warfare capabilities which can create trouble for tankers and cargo ship passage in Gulf. It had acquired new long range missiles from North Korea, it had built up significant stocks of chemical weapons and is working on nuclear weapons programme. Iran had also developed biological weapons. Khatami condemned terrorism and called for peaceful relations between all Islamic states. United States President Bill Clinton made new overtures to Iran and offered a dialogue without asking Tehran to drop its position to peace agreements with the Israelis, however, Clinton defended post U.S. efforts to isolate Iran. Iran had obtained large scale missile, produced chemical weapons, developed biological weapons, and is making efforts to acquire nuclear weapons. Iran’s keen interest is in advancing military capabilities because of which it had became threat to peace.
Weapons of Mass destruction
Iran possesses the Soviet design Scud-B (ITE) this is the core of Iran’s ballistic missile forces, which is the result of the Iran-Iraq war. After Iraq invasion Iran had focused on acquiring the Scuds.
It got these from Libya and North Korea which it had fired on Iraq. The Scud-B is an old Soviet design missile which has range of 290-390km. The Russian versions are equipped with conventional high explosive, fuel air explosive, runway penetrator, submunition chemical and nuclear warheads. Israeli experts estimate that Iran had at least 250-300 Scud-B missiles and at least 8-15 launchers in 1973. United States says that Iran can now produce Scud-B and it can improve efficiency of the rocket mortars, Maulanawarheads Azad and burn timeLibrary, so it’s difficult Aligarh to estimate. Iran Muslim too had North University Korean Scuds with 500 kilometers range and this North Korean missile system is referred as Scud- C, however Iran denied. North Korea had exported the missile through its Lyongaksan import corporation. Iran imported some of these North Korean missiles assemblies
4 www.iranwatch.org uploaded on 9 Aug 2016 accessed on 14 March 2018
98 Chapter -4
using its B- 747s, up to 1998 there is almost 100 to 170 longer North Korean missiles there is 5-10 Scud-C launchers which also includes 4 new North Korean TELs received in 1995. There are reports that Iran had tested new North Korean missiles from mobile launchers at test site near Qom. Iran had done exercise like the Saeqer-3 (Thunderbolt-3) by deploying such missiles in late October, 1993. The missile from North Korea got developed by getting technical support from People’s Republic of China. It is “Scud-C”. It is more on the Chinese made DF-61 than Soviet weapon. The North Korean missile have a range of around 310 miles (500 Kilometers) with relatively good accuracy and reliability and Iran can modify the warhead to increase payload according to range and can use lethal agents such as persistent nerve gas instead of chemical munitions. By this Iran can target southern coast of the Gulf, Iraq, Syria East Turkey, (border area of earlier Soviet Union) Russia, Western Afghanistan and Pakistan. The most important thing is that none of the countries except North Korea had transferred the war head technology for biological and chemical weapons while selling Scud-B missile and CSS-8. It is believed that North Korea had sold technology as a part of Scud-C sale. Iran had become a transshipment point for North Korea missile deliveries during 1992 and 1993 Iran had also developed indigenous missile production which can operate with solid and liquid fuelled missiles and it is working on production of MRBMs. Iran is able to assemble Scud, Scud-C missiles by importing its parts and components. Iran have design centre which is supposed to be located at defense technology and science research centre, which is the branch of Iran’s defence industry organization and located outside Karaj near Tehran. It is also believed that Russian and Chinese scientists are assisting Iran’s defence technology and science research centre.
Iran’s biggest assembly and productions plant is located near Isfahan which is backed by North Korea. This region had advance defence industry. Local industries were able to produce liquid fuels and missile parts from local steel mill. The second largest missile plant is located around 175 km towards east of Tehran near Semnan. MaulanaAccording to information Azad byLibrary, experts this isAligarh Chinese built Muslim plant for production University of rockets developed in and around 1987. The other plant is also build by China in 1987 near Bandar Abbas for assembly of seersucker, this is naval branch. China is also blamed for developing solid fuel rocket motors. The production and assembly of missiles like CS-801 and CS-802, Tondar-68 with the range of 700 km is said to be
99 Chapter -4
developed by Iran with Russian support Iran had scattered its manufacturing facility into plants near Partisan, Semnan Shiraz, Maghdad and Islaker. It is believed that the companies which assemble Scuds are also involved in Iran’s production of poisonous gas and these companies are defense industries, Shahid Bagheri industrial group and the Shahid Hemat industrial group.
Iran’s main missile test range is near Shahroud. Telemetry station is supposed to be 350 km to east of south Taba along the Mashad Isfahan road. Reports says that in 1980s and 90s Iran went for North Korean No- dong missile which was supposed to have the capability of carrying nuclear as well as biological missile ranges of up to 900 kilometers and can easily target the Gulf, Turkey and Israel. When No-dong was going for test there is the information that Iranians were present at the test site. The propulsion tests began in august 1994 and operational training begun for test crews in May 1995. Missile storage facilities began to build in July 1995 and four launch sites were also completed in October 1995.
The No-dong-1 is a single stage liquid-fueled missile, with a range of up to 1,000 to 13,000 km No-dong-2 is also supposed to be there by using same rocket motor but improved version. This is bigger than Scud-B, the war head is estimated to weight 770 km and its manufacturing facility exists near Pyongyang. The No-dong has an estimated theoretical CEP of 700 meters although its practical accuracy could be as wide as 3000- 4000 meters. The missile is transportable on a modified copy of the MAZ-543P TEL that has been lengthened with a fifth axle and which is roughly 40 meters long. Iran in 1980s and 1990s was interested in two developmental North Korean IRBMs, which are Taepo Dong-1 and Taepo Dong-2. The Taepo Dongs must be carried to a site in stages and then assembled at a fixed site. But after 1990s Iran is developing its own longer-range variants of No-dong with some Russian and Chinese support. The indigenous missile of Iran was based on No-dongs and Chinese CSS-5 (DF – 21) and CSS-N3 (JL-1).
MaulanaU.S. had Azad always blamed Library, Russia for Aligarh backing Iran in Muslim its Iranian missile University technology development but Russia denied and claimed that it had put suitable limits on the sale or transfer of rocket engines and technology and had agreed to follow terms of the missile technology control regime.
100 Chapter -4
The Chinese, Russian and North Korean firms are supplying Iran the equipments and models for nuclear advancement Chinese firm is Great wall industries while Russia firm is the Russian Central Aero-hydrodynamic Institute which is alleged of providing wind mills, equipment for manufacturing missile models and software for testing, launch and reentry performance to Iran’s Shahid Hemmat Industrial Group (SHIG). Other Russian firms are Rosvoorouzhenie, NPO Trud, the Bauman Institute and Polypus these are Russian arms export agency while NPO Trud is a rocket motor manufacture and other two are research centers and laser test and manufacturing equipment firm.
According to CIA information’s Iran got major new transfers of long range missile technology from Russian and Chinese firms in 1996. Iran had ordered for China – made M-9 (CSS-6/DF-15) missile which was having range of 280-620 km and launch weight of 6000 kilo gram). There were also reports that China firms were giving only assistance in developing indigenous missile R and D and production of an Iranian fueled missile.
The experts from United States have reported that Iran had tested booster engines in 1991 capable of driving a missile up to 1,500 km. Iran is also growing towards manufacture of missiles with much longer ranges than the Scud-B. An Israeli Air force commander Eitan Ben Eliyahu reported in 1997 April 14 that Iran had tested a missile capable of reaching Israel and Russia was assisting Iran in developing two missiles with ranges of 620 and 780 miles and two others. China too has helped Iran in its effort of getting missiles. Missiles such as Shihab (Meteor) missiles are similar to Iranian missiles adapted from North Korean designs.
The Israeli reports informed Shihab-3 was liquid fueled missile with a range of 810 miles (1,200-1,500 km) Shihab was ready for deployment by 1998 as told by Israel. The report says that Iran is developing the Shihab-4 with range of 1,250 miles some reports say its range is 4,000 km but U.S. experts says that it still needs foreign Maulanaguidance to function. Azad Israel Library, had warned Aligarh that Iran is working Muslim on two Universitymissile programmes including longer-range systems which had maximum range of up to 4,500-5000 kilometers.
Shihab-3 was tested by Iran on 21 July 1998 which Iran has called as an action of defence to counter. This missile can travel at 4,300 miles per hour and can carry one-
101 Chapter -4
ton war load as claimed by General Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, head of Islamic revolutionary guards however, U.S. says that system needs refinement.
Russia also had supported Iran in giving technology for developing long- range missile with a range of 3,500-6,250 km. In which it is believed that Russia had transferred design details of the Russian SS-4 which is also known as the R-12 or “sandal” which has range of 2000 km it has nuclear war head or biological weapon with near nuclear lethality.
Russian military industries had signed contracts with Iran to help for producing liquid-fueled missiles and to provide specialized wind tunnels, manufactured model missiles and in developing specialized computer software.
This deal with Russia plays major role in helping Iran in developing long range versions of Scud-B, and C and perfect version of No-dong missile Iranians had been given permission to study rocket engineering at the Baltic State University in St. Petersburg and the Bauman State University. Iran also had bought high strength steel and special foil for its long-range missile programme. It was accepted by Russian scientific and production centre Inor of selling factory to Iran for producing four special metal alloys used in long-range missiles.
Russians had also sold Iran 620 kilograms of special alloy called 21 HKMT and supplied Iran with the capability to thermally treat the alloy for missile bodies.
Inor was selling alloy foils called 49 K2F CUBE2 and 50 N in sheets 0.2-0.4 millimeters thick for the outer body missiles. Iran had carried deal with the Shahid Hemat industrial group in Iran for supplying merging steel for missile cases, composite graphite-tungsten material, laser equipment and special mirrors used in missile tests. Due to such assistance by Russia in 1998 the relationship of Russia and United States got tense up to the level that the then secretary of state Madeleine Albright made an indirect threat that Congress if needed may apply sanctions. MaulanaHowever Azad Russia re iteratedLibrary, that it had Aligarh not transferred Muslim any technology University to Iran in the mean time in 1998 information came that smugglers were arrested for shipping 22 tons of specialized steel to Iran via Azerbaijan and several Russian shell corporation works in cover. In 1999 the state department declared that 20 Russian agencies and
102 Chapter -4
research facilities were not getting U.S. aid because of their role in transporting missile technology to Iran.
Iran has shorter missile range systems.
- Iran in 1990 had bought CSS- 8 surface to surface missiles from China with a range of 130- 150 kilometers. - Iran has Chinese sea and land based anti ship cruise missile which was even used by Iran in Iran-Iraq war.
Iran has technology of building long range cruise missile system which too was acquired from China it has HY -2 seersucker and CS- 802 which is modified relatively quickly for land attacks against area targets.
In 1995 Iran had exercised in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman. Iran had used its domestically built anti-ship missile called the Saeqer-4 (thunderbolt)
Iran has copies of Chinese CS- 801/CS- 802 and FL-2 or F-7 anti ship missile which is made by Chinese help.5
CS-802 is the export upgraded version of the Chinese anti ship missile YJ-8.6 China had provided design data to develop a scaled-up longer range cruise missile. Iran can also modify its anti ship missile to attack and aircrafts or ships which can also be used to launch cruise missiles with chemical or biological war heads as most of the Gulf countries and its big cities lies near the coast.
The problem which Iran faces in the imported missiles can be overcome by developing its own Cruise missile by Modifying the HY- 2 seersucker or by modifying and changing the CS- 801(Ying Jai -1) anti ship missile.
Some report says that the revolutionary guards are working on developing and modifying its oven version at a facility near Bandar Abbas.
MaulanaOther missile Azad and weapons Library, owned by AligarhIran are Muslim University - Su-24 long range strike fighter which is near to US F-111 - F-4d/E fighter bombers which has range of 50 miles.
5 Anthony H. Cordesman. Iran’s Military Forces in Transition: Conventional Threats and Weapons of Mass Destruction, Praeger Publishers-1999, p. 7, 223,224, 225, 227, 228, 229, 230, 231, 232. 6 http://www.magazinos.com accessed on 20 March
103 Chapter -4
- Iran can also modify HY-2 silkworm missiles and SA-2 surface to air missile to deliver weapons of mass destructions.7
Nuclear weapons of Iran
The 9/11 commission report, 2004 says that there is secret information given by intelligence that there were contacts between Iranian security officials and senior Al- Qaida figures after Bin Laden’s returned to Afghanistan. “There is strong evidence that Iran facilitated the transit of Al-Qaida members into and out of Afghanistan before 9/11, and that some of these were future 9/11 hijackers.” After 9/11, Iran and Hezbollah wished to conceal any past evidence of cooperation with Sunni terrorist associated with Al-Qaida but requires further investigation by the U.S. government. Iran’s Islamic revolutionary are spread beyond Iran’s borders.
Iran had carried secret operation hidden within the legitimate nuclear organization, atomic energy organization of Iran (AEOI) which interacts with international agencies and provides a legal nuclear “face” for a regime. Iran’s high profile mission is its attempt to acquire a nuclear bomb.
Iran is working on
- The clandestine weapons programme - Nuclear weapons technology purchases - Use of research centers and companies as front organization for nuclear weapons research work by its top-secret military command.
Iran’s nuclear programme as claimed by the state is for defence. This nuclear programme is under the guidance of Islamic revolutionary guard corps and the military of defence and armed forces. At the nuclear site in Natanz and Arak in 2002 the secret project to achieve nuclear weapon was started and military was involved in this project which is supervised and persuaded by the top level of regime that is by supreme leader Khomeini and to keep the nuclear project secret and to accelerate the Maulanaacquisition Azad of nuclear Library, weapons man yAligarh of the regimes Muslim nuclear program Universityme sites were under the supervision of military and nuclear experts were transferred to these organizations. The military operations devoted to the nuclear weapons programme are
7Anthony H. Cordesman. op. cit., p.233
104 Chapter -4
staffed by nearly 400 experts and researchers who work beyond the frame work of the atomic energy organization of Iran. The work of nuclear development was kept secret and was under the guidance of University professors. The involvement of military officials began in 1983 with the creation of a strategic research and nuclear technology section within the IRGC. The nuclear experts and engineers who went through the two year training programme at the research division of the (AEOI) were hired by the IRGC to work in the special nuclear unit. The IRGC had hired these experts and engineers at very high salaries to join the top secret group. The officer in charge of the covert parallel nuclear weapon programme is the number two man at the ministry of defence. Iranian nuclear programme was started after the revolution in 1960s after shah was provided 5 megawatt light water research reactor and laboratory equipment which was given to Tehran Nuclear Research Centre (TNRC) at Tehran University as a part of “Atoms for peace” programme. In this nuclear technology was given to nations throughout the world and in return it was asked for commitment of not to develop nuclear weapons that is why it is called “atoms for peace” Shah of Iran too had signed nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT) in 1968 and ratified it in 1970.
Development of Nuclear Programme
Though nuclear programme started in 1960 but got a new kick 1974 after Iran made a $1 billion loan to commissariat a l’ energie atomique (CEA) in 1974 to build uranium enrichment plant at Tricastin, France, for the Eurodif consortium and in return, Iran received 10 percent stake in the plant and Iran had also asked for French assistance in uranium prospecting. Shah of Iran signed an agreement with the international atomic energy agency (IAEA) for allowing full inspections of all nuclear material of Iran in 1974.
In 1974 Shah also established atomic energy organization of Iran (AEOI) and announced a 20 year nuclear energy plan that includes building of 22 power reactors throughout the country. The budget in 1976 had also increased from 30.8 million Maulanadollars to one billion Azad dollars Library, a year of atomi cAligarh energy organization Muslim of Iran along University with that in 1977 United States and Iran had signed an agreement for exchanging nuclear technology and cooperate in nuclear safety. Iran’s AEOI financial adviser in 1977 had told in an interview in October 2006 of dealing with more than 20 foreign companies working on Iranian nuclear projects by 1978.
105 Chapter -4
In January 1979 the two nuclear plants were under construction in Bushehr on the Persian Gulf with the contract with the German Siemens subsidiary Kraftwerk union AG (KWU). A nuclear power plants of 1,200- 1,300 mega watt near Bushehr was almost completed and another nuclear power plant of 930 megawatt reactor near Ahwaz which is around 75 miles to the north of Persian Gulf also begun to built with the help of French company Framatome and Shah had shown interest in purchasing 18 more reactors from Germany, France and United States.
Khomeini’s regime too had taken the “substantial nuclear infrastructure” from Shah’s regime as published in 1987. Khomeini viewed Shah’s nuclear ambition as evil came out from the Western influence and cancelled the German and French contracts and work at Bushehr and Ahwaz plants got break but nuclear weapons technology programme never actually got dead. Iran-Iraq war had affected Iran’s nuclear ambitions as nuclear site was attacked and German company had refused to work in Iranian plants at Bushehr. Israel too had attacked on Iraq’s nuclear site at Osirak in 1981 all these occurrence had created pot of trouble for Iran in attaining nuclear technology but with the help of black market and underground deals the nuclear programme of Iran got progress and new nuclear research laboratory was built at Isfahan. Isfahan nuclear technology centre (INTC) by 1984 which was earlier been built by the Shah in 1970. This was the training centre for Bushehr personnel China had helped and assisted Iran and the INTC became large site with underground complex and grew beyond the needs of peaceful research. China supplied training reactor in 1985. Iran had hidden all these development from IAEA as this research centre had carried uranium conversion and fuel production and it had also imported uranium in 1982 secretly which is all violation of its NPT obligations. After Iran-Iraq war, Iran decided to start full fledged nuclear programme. China had signed an agreement with Iran for training AEOI engineers and supply the regime with nuclear equipment and data about designing nuclear facilities and Iranian nuclear experts started to get its training in China by 1985. China had also provided Iran with a Maulanaresearch Azadreactor and Library,a calutron which Aligarhbecame operational Muslim in 1987. The University agreement was signed with North Korea on nuclear weapon development and assistance in uranium mining and exploration. Nuclear cooperation agreement with Argentina was signed in 1987 in which Argentina had to sell Iran 20 percent enriched uranium for use in small reactor at the Tehran nuclear research centre. As we have already discussed that
106 Chapter -4
Soviet Union’s assistance in Iran’s nuclear programme had led to tense situation between United States and Soviet Union and infact U.S. concern can be seen from top secret memo from June 1985 from national security adviser Robert MacFarlane to secretary of state George Shultz and secretary of defence Casper Weinberger they says that “the most immediate U.S. interests regarding Iran include,” limiting the scope and opportunity for Soviet actions …. Our primary short term challenge must be to block Moscow’s efforts to increase Soviet influence”.
After the defeat in Iran-Iraq war, Iranian regime was desperate for attaining nuclear weapons. After cease fire in 1988 Iranian President Hashemi Rafsanjani said in his speech to IRGCs, “we should fully equip ourselves both in the offensive and defensive use of chemical bacteriological and radiological weapons and one of the important source for getting nuclear weaponry design and materials was the black market of weapon of mass destruction of A.Q. Khan.
Abdul Qadir Khan use to supply nuclear technology and materials for nuclear weapon programme from his home country Pakistan to the countries like Iran, Libya and North Korea.
It is said that Abdul Qadir Khan had stolen uranium centrifuge designs in 1970s from his Dutch employer, physics dynamic research laboratory (FDO) there are information that Khan had access to Europe’s most cutting-edge centrifuge technology because FDO was a subcontractor for Urenco which is Europe’s sole commercial enrichment firm for producing low enrich uranium and he gave all technological and manufacturing information to Pakistan in 1975. According to CIA director, George Tenet in 2004 said that “Khan and his network had been unique in being able to offer one-stop shopping for enrichment technology and weapons design information”, and with such possession of uranium by Khan many other countries can get incremental stages of other nuclear weapons development programmes. Iran was among the first buyers from Khan’s market. Iran accepted to IAEA in 2003, that it Maulanahad begun uranium Azad enrichment Library, in 1995 and Aligarh had already Muslimreceived blueprints University for centrifuge design through the foreign intermediary in around 1987 even Khan had accepted after his arrest in 2004 that he had provided Iran all designs, drawings and components related to the nuclear weapons. Khan also had taken full responsibility for his proliferation activities. Khan’s deal with Iran in 1987 included the training of
107 Chapter -4
six Iranians in two Pakistani facilities. The Institute of Nuclear Science and Technology in Islamabad and the nuclear studies institute in Nowlore, Khan accepted that he had set up training for Iranian scientists at his own facility and he also had met personally with Iranian scientists in Pakistan. In Malaysia, a business man named Buhary Syed Abu Tahir who was Khan’s financial associate accepted of having Abdul Qadir’s deal of hardware with Iran. Khan had shipped used centrifuges to Iran from port of Dubai in UAE and in return Tahir was given two brief cases filled with dirham which was around three million dollars. According to Tahir, Khan’s network had middlemen from Great Britain, Germany, Turkey and Switzerland who facilitated the secret deals and deliveries, Khan’s main counterpart was Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGCs) commander Mohammad Eslami, the chief of the IRGCs nuclear research centre. In 1986-1987, Eslami and two other IRGCs commanders met with A.Q. Khan in Tehran and the meeting was supervised by the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran of that time Reza Amrollahi. Its main propose was the nuclear weapon research as revealed by the investigations. Abdul Qadir Khan’s black market had helped Iran in its ambition for attaining the nuclear weapons.
The arrest of A.Q. Khan was result of IAEA inspections of Iran’s top secret uranium enrichment plant in Natanz, which was built and developed from 2000. Tahir described Khan’s operation as a loose network without a rigid hierarchy or a head and a deputy head.
In 1998, the Iranian regime started its secret nuclear weapons programme. The IRGCs created a top-secret nuclear weapons programme at the AEOI under the code name the “great plan”. Around $200 million budget was allocated and with passage of time budget got increased and went up to $ 800 million in 1992.
After the death of Khomeini 1989, the new leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khomenei and its new President, Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, expanded Iran’s secret nuclear programme and had done series of agreements with foreign suppliers. But due to U.S. Maulanapressure Azad Germany andLibrary, Argentina hadAligarh refused. Now Muslim for Iran, China University and Russia became the only hope.
In 1992 Rafsanjani went to China for signing an agreement with China for building almost four nuclear power plants and research center. The first Chinese facility was the delivery of 300 megawatt nuclear reactor which was said be for peaceful purposes
108 Chapter -4
by China and in Iran it was to be built at Darkhovin a site in southwest Iran that lies 25 miles to the south of the city of Ahwaz.
The Chinese reactor would be modeled after the new Qisham reactor in the Zhejian province which was operating in a trial mode for less than a year and Iranian regime had sent 20 technicians and engineers to China for training and 4 Chinese nuclear experts were already working at the Darkhovin site. Along with Chinese assistance 22 Iranian were in Pakistan for nuclear training. Other deals with China were done in early 1990s these are- the construction of an industrial scale uranium conversion plant and Zirconium production plant at the Isfahan nuclear technology centre, Zirconium is a corrosion resistant metal used in nuclear reactors.
Russia had done nuclear cooperation with Iran, Russia helped Iran in building construction of twin reactors at Bushehr. In January 1995 the Russian minister of atomic energy, Viktor Niktovich Mikhaylov and AEOI chief Reza Amrollahi signed $ 800 million contract for Russia to finish construction of one of the 1,000 megawatt reactors in four years. The structural frame of one of the reactors was 75 percent complete and needed reactor components and second reactor was 60 percent complete. Assisting Bushehr plant was a secret deal done with Russia for domestic fuel cycle.
Russia agreed to share large research reactor, plants for manufacturing nuclear fuel and centrifuge enrichment facility but all got stopped due to President Clinton’s urge to the Russia’s President Boris Yeltsin for not providing assistance to nuclear development in Iran but Russia agreed for the construction at Bushehr. Iran in 2005 and 2006 announced that it will get its “nuclear fuel” from Russia but spent fuel will be returned to Russia so that it could not be used for nuclear weapons programme.
There are two nuclear programmes in Iran one which is open to all at Bushehr as presented by Atomic Energy of Iran (AEOI) and other is the secret one which is Maulanahidden from IAEA Azad and from Library, all government Aligarhpersonnel including Muslim Majlis it is soUniversity secret that its budget is allocated by the supreme leader not from Majlis budget committee. The two secret nuclear sites are located at-
1. Natanz 2. Arak
109 Chapter -4
The hardliner President Ahmadinejad took Iran’s nuclear programme as a point of national pride and freedom and west can’t take away this “right to nuclear technology”. The atomic energy of Iran had done joint projects and other programmes, and Iran is under regular inspection and supervision by IAEA and had declared that policy of Iran is to utilize the peaceful application of nuclear power for the improvement of lives of the people. The AEOIs planning and operations are conducted secretly.
It was so much secret that the construction of the uranium-enrichment facility in Natanz and the heavy water facility in Arak were done without informing the Majlis. Infact most of the personnel who work in the civilian programme do not even know that such a parallel programme exists. Ahmadinejad had given a new start with high speed and militarization of Iran’s nuclear programme. Ahmadinejad had appointed IRGC members in the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC). SNSC was chaired by President Ahmadinejad and they make policy on all foreign affairs, defence and security issues. This move to add IRGC members to the SNSC essentially further brought the complete nuclear programme under the direct control of the IRGC. The Bushehr facility require only fuel as power plant needed fuel to work which was to be given by Russia. Iran’s passion for attaining the complete fuel cycle which would enable Iran to create fissile material for nuclear weapon had created confrontation of Iran with IAEA, the EU and of course the United States of America. In 2006 uranium enrichment programme had been disclosed by AEOI at Natanz and Arak which is about 150 miles from Tehran have heavy water production plant (HMPP) this location is suited as it is near Qara-Chai River as heavy water production process involves steam power.8
Enrichment of uranium and heavy water facility for Nuclear bomb.
Enrichment of uranium is the process by which the percentage of fissile uranium in a sample naturally obtained is increased using several artificial processes. The uranium Maulanathat is obtainedAzad fr omLibrary, mining contains Aligarh several isotopes Muslim of uranium University in different compositions such as U-238, U- 235 and U-234. In all three U-235 is the only one that
8 Ali Reza Jafarzadeh. Iran the Threat: President Ahmadinejad and Coming Nuclear Crises, Palgrave Macmillan Publishers-2007, p.61, 126, 129, 130, 131, 132, 133, 134, 137, 138, 139, 140, 141
110 Chapter -4
is fissile that can be used in nuclear reactor to produce heat (which creates electricity) in a controlled manner”.9
Uranium 238 is the most abundant form and about 99.3 percent of all uranium is U- 238. The rest is U-235 which is (0.7%) and trace amount of U-234. uranium is a radioactive material. U-235 is fissile but it is 0.7 percent which is very less to make bomb or even a nuclear reactor of a power plant. A power plant requires uranium with 3-4 percent U-235 which is low enriched or reactor grade uranium and bomb needs uranium around 90 percent, U-235 which is highly enriched uranium. Most common methods for enriching uranium today are centrifugation and gaseous diffusion and other method is laser technique. Highly enriched uranium is used in bombs, which is expensive and difficult to create and if nation develops the capability for enriching uranium more than need of reactor is a proof of nuclear bomb making. Iran has produced uranium enriched up to 20 percent which is a weapon grade.10
Heavy water reactor:- Heavy water as name shows has high density, consists of water molecule with deuterium isotopes in the place of hydrogen. Deuterium isotopes are composed of one proton and one neutron and standard hydrogen contains only one proton. So deuterium is twice as heavy as hydrogen, and pure heavy water has a density of about 10.6% higher than that of normal water’.11
IR-40 heavy water research reactor- Iran had tried to purchase as heavy water moderated reactor in the 1990s Tehran secretly contacted at least four nuclear suppliers but unable to get later Iran began constructing the reactor on its own, Iran had constructed the reactor vessel’s containment dome. Iran in 2009 informed about 1R-40 reactor to IAEA and IAEA carried the design information verification. At the time of inspection by IAEA Iran estimated that plant was 63% completed and the reactor vessel’s containment dome had been installed. Heavy water production plant (HWPP) gives heavy water for the IR-40 reactor which started operating in November 2004 and can produce up to 16 metric tons of heavy water per year. The heavy water Maulanaproduction plant Azad was secret Library,up to 2002 when Aligarhthe national council Muslim of resistance University of Iran opened the construction of at least two secret sites related to Iran’s nuclear
9 large.stanford.edu/courses/2011/ph241/jaffer1/ accessed on 23 March 2018 10 https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science.../what-is-enriched-uranium accessed on 22 March 2018 11 www.atomicheritage.org/history/heavy-water-reactor accessed on 20 March 2018
111 Chapter -4
programme, Iran officially had declared that it was constructing the HW PP during El- Baradei’s visit to Iran.12
The 40-megawatt reactor at Arak is ment to produce isotopes for cancer and other medical treatments. Iran and China had signed the first commercial contract to redesign the Arak heavy water nuclear reactor in central Iran. Chinese foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang said that the contract is an important part of 2015 Iran nuclear deal, the Joint comprehensive plan of action (JCPOA). According to the JCPOA, “Iran will redesign and build a modernized heavy water research reactor in Arak based on an agreed conceptual design, using fuel enriched up to 3.67%, in form of an international partnership which will certify the final design” and on November 2015 the document on redesigning the heavy water reactor was signed by all parties to the JCPOA. According to Iranian authorities, the Iranian heavy water reactor programme consisted of two different facilities.
1. The heavy water production plant at Arak, and 2. The 40-MW (th) IR-40
In 2016 information came out that Iran has removed the core vessel of the Arak heavy water reactor as an obligation on the basis of nuclear agreement with six world powers.13
Behrouz Kamalyandi, the spokesperson of the atomic energy organization of Iran (AEOI) had told to local media that the work to redesign the Arak heavy water reactor is proceeding and it will be completed before 2022 and its work is on second phase, Arak heavy water reactor’s name had been changed to Khandab heavy water reactor. Heavy water is used in some nuclear project as a neutron regulator and it can be used in production of the weapon grade plutonium with natural uranium. Iran had also started 10 year project with Russia to construct a new nuclear power plant. The Bushehr nuclear reactor is a Russian built nuclear reactor which is also Iran’s first Maulananuclear energyAzad project. Library, A deal is also Aligarh signed by Russia Muslim in 2014 for University building eight more reactors in Iran”.
12 www.nti.org/learn/facilities/177/ accessed on 4 May 2018 13 www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/iran/arak11.htm accessed on 7 May 2018
112 Chapter -4
Iran’s nuclear facilities-
Iran Nuclear sites are located at
- Bushehr - Natanz - Arak - Isfahan - Gachin or Gchine - Yazd - Fordo - Parchin - Bonab - Tehran - Saghand
Among them Bonab, Ramsar and Tehran are research reactors, while Saghand, Yazd and Gachin are uranium mine and Arak, Fordo Natnaz, Isfahan and Bushehr are nuclear sites and the only military site is at Parachin”.14
Bushehr Nuclear power station- In 1974 Iranian authority had decided to build two commercial nuclear reactors at Bushehr with German assistance but due the revolution in Iran this project got halt but in 1990s Tehran with the help Russia restarted by signing an agreement. United Nations had passed resolution which was ment to stop uranium enrichment in Iran uranium enrichment is must for nuclear reactors to be used as fuels for making nuclear bomb however in 2007 Russia delivered enriched uranium needed in plant. The IAEA in its inspection declared in 2013 that the reactor was operating at 100% of its nominal plant.
Natanz - Natanz fuel enrichment plant (FEP) is the Iran’s largest gas centrifuge uranium enrichment facility. It started functioning in 2007. This facility consists of Maulanathree large underground Azad buildingsLibrary, which Aligarh is capable of Muslim holding up to University 50,000 centrifuges. In these centrifuges uranium hexafluoride gas is fed which separates out the most fissile uranium isotope. FEP produces low enriched uranium which has 3% to 4% concentration of U-235 which can be used for production of fuel for nuclear
14 www.azernews.az/region/118124.html accessed on 12 May 2018
113 Chapter -4
power plant and can enrich up to 90% for production of nuclear bomb. In JCPOA agreement Iran had accepted not to install centrifuges more than 5060 at Natnaz for 10 year and there will be no enrichment facility other than Natanz.
Arak complex – It is Iran’s heavy water production plant and a heavy water reactor which remains under construction. Arak originally ment to build a hot cell facility for separation of “long lined radioisotopes”, which is believe to be a euphemism for plutonium, but in 2004 Iran had informed IAEA that it had stopped the production plant however it is believed that hot cells are build to separate shorter-lived radio isotopes, such as cobalt-60 and iridium-192 for peaceful civilian applications. 1980s Iran decided to construct a heavy water reactor, Russia had given significant design assistance for the reactor in 1990s.
IR-40 is a reactor which is designed to produce 40 megawatt thermal (METH) power and used natural uranium oxide fuel, which is being produced at the Isfahan conversion and fuel fabrication facility. IR-40 is able to produce about 9 kilogram of plutonium annually which is enough for about two nuclear weapons each year.
Iran had allowed the IAEA access to the IR-40 reactor at Arak. The IR-40 reactor’s external structure is under monitor of IAEA.
Isfahan Nuclear technology center/ research reactor – IAEA had informed that Iran possess the light water sub-critical reactor (LWSCR) that uses uranium metal fuel. The miniaturized neutron source reactor (MNSRe) is working since mid-1990s and can supply one kilogram of 90.2 percent enriched fuel. This MNSR was provided by China. In 2006, Iran began separating a uranium conversion facility (UCF) at its nuclear research facility in Isfahan to convert yellow cake into three forms hexafluoride gas which is used in enrichment processes, uranium oxide which is used to fuel reactors and metal which is in fuel elements as well as the cover of nuclear reactor.
MaulanaQom -Azad is the uranium Library, enrichment Aligarh plant. In January Muslim 2012 Iran University accepted that Qom/Fordo is uranium enrichment plant at a heavily fortified underground fordo facility near the holy city of Qom. It began building the site secretly in June 2011. Iran opened up that it is planning to produce medium enriched uranium which has
114 Chapter -4
20 % concentration of U-235 at Fordo. Iran accepted that enriched uranium would be used as fuel at the Tehran research reactor.
Uranium with a concentration of 20% can further be enriched to 90%. Which is weapon grade, according to November 13 interim deal the produced medium enriched uranium and its stockpiles was ceased at Fordo turned into forms that were less of proliferation risk.
The JCPOA states that no enrichment will be permitted at Fordo for 15 years. While 1,044 centrifuges were allowed to be installed at the site to produce isotopes for use in medicine, agriculture, industry and science and technology.
Gachin - Gachin is a uranium mine in Iran which is located near the gulf at port of Bandar Abbas which is basically intended as a source of uranium for military nuclear programme. Iran accepted that it had delivered its first domestically produced uranium ore concentrate, or yellow cake for enrichment in December 2010. Iran had also imported yellow cake from South Africa in 1970 Iran had two other mines at Saghand in central Iran and yellow cake production factory at Ardakan. IAEA inspectors had visited Gachin mine in 2014.15
Tehran research reactor- The Tehran research reactor (TRR) is an open pool, light water moderated with a thermal power of 5 Mw. This reactor belongs to the nuclear research centre of atomic energy organization of Iran (AEOI). It is 5 MW research reactor (TRR) in which highly enriched uranium (HEU) fuel has been converted to low enriched uranium (LEU) fuel using U-308-AI with less than 20% enriched uranium. The TRR was originally fuelled with uranium aluminum alloy, high enriched uranium (HER), utilizing curve type plate. The HEU standard fuel element (SFE) had 16 active plates and two external dummy plates. The LEU fuel is U 308-AI containing 19.7 % enriched uranium fabricated in Argentina”.16 Iran however asked for fuel to run Tehran research reactor (TRR) as imported Argentinean Maulanafuel used by the Azad complex was Library, unable to complete Aligarh the need, IranMuslim demanded toUniversity IAEA for assistance in supplying more fuel to the reactor so it could produce medical isotopes for the treatment of patients”. Iran began shifting enrichment centrifuges to an underground bunker near the holy city of Qom which Washington had called
15 www.bbc.com uploaded on 14 July 2015 accessed on 18 May 2018 16 www.iaea.org/inis/35044382.pdf accessed on 20 May 2018
115 Chapter -4
“troubling”. The IRR is a 5 megawatt- thermal (METH), pool-type light water research reactor. It is United States that had assisted the TRR 1967 and supplied uranium fuel for the reactor. In 1980s-1990s the IRR was used to irradiate uranium
oxide (UO2) fuel and laboratory scale plutonium reprocessing experiments. Iran had accepted that it had used the TRR to produce small amounts of polonium-210 which is a radioactive material used in a neutron initiator. The reactor consists of 27 uranium oxide, aluminum-alloy fuel plates, and a total of about 30 kg or 66 pound uranium”.17
Bonab Energy research centre
This research centre was established in 1995 for research programmes on the nuclear technology for agricultural application. Hans Blix who was the Director General of IAEA had visited this research centre in 1997. This research centre is also under suspicion for conducting the secret nuclear research. It works under atomic energy organization of Iran (AEOI).18
Ramsar
Ramsar is a city on the Caspian Sea in northern Iran. It has the highest measured natural back ground radiation levels in the world because of local geology and hydrogeology radiation. A population of about 2000 is living in the region is open to the average annual radiation levels of 10.2 mGy/yr and the highest recorded doses are about 260 mGy/yr. This high radiation is because of the deposition of 226-Ra in local rocks and even the houses made of these rocks had led to radiations inside the house.19 This dose of radiation is in excess for those living and working there.
Saghand- it is Iran’s main uranium mine in the central province of Yazd. It the basic source of uranium ore with a production capacity of 132,000 tons a year.20
Ardakan- The yellow cake is formed by processing from uranium ore from this plant. The Ardakan plant is about 500 kilometers from Tehran in the southwest of Iran”. For Maulanathe first Azad time Ardakan Library, nuclear facility Aligarh was reported onMuslim 8 July 2003 Universityby the national
17 in.reuters.com/article/2012/02/16/iran-nuclear-reactor/ accessed on 24 May 2018 18 www.nit.org/learn/facilities/228/ accessed on 25 May 2018 19 ecolo.org/documents/documents_in_english/ramsarHLNRAPaper.doc accessed on 24 May 2018 20 www.seattletimes.com accessed on 23 May 2018
116 Chapter -4
council of resistance of Iran which is the political wing of the people’s Mujahedeen”.21
It is over seen by atomic energy organization of Iran (AEOI). Which is intended to process ore from the Saghand uranium mine and the uranium ore concentrate (Yellow cake) product which is for processing at the uranium conversion facility (UCF) its designed production capacity is of 50 tons of uranium per year, the plant design was undertaken by Atomredmetzoloto and Pioneer Energy Industry Co.22
Parchin – Iran had constructed a large explosive containment vessel or chamber at the Parchin military complex in 2000 to persue high explosive and hydrodynamic experiments related to the development of nuclear weapons. This Parchin complex is build to persue research, development and production of ammunition, rockets and high explosives. The complex has hundreds of building and test sites. This site is to conduct high explosive work related to nuclear weapons development and is involve in conventional high explosive activities. The complex is owned by Iran’s defence industries organization. Prachin was under suspicion of having secret nuclear weapons programme. It is said that this site is having high explosive testing for nuclear weapon. In Parchin there is also isolated, secured site where weapons related research may take place. It is only in 2005 IAEA inspectors went for inspection and they were able to take several environmental samples.23 It was seen in 2004 when reports came of having large explosives containment vessel that was build to conduct hydrodynamic experiments which indicates of having nuclear development programme at Parchin”.24
Yazd- It is a radiation processing center. It conducts applied radiation chemistry research. It works under atomic energy organization of Iran (AEOI). It also comes under suspicion of having nuclear weapon programme. It has microbiology polymer and dosimeter laboratories”.25 The study and research is done to analyze the mineral deposits near Yazd. The geophysical research is conducted here. The Saghand Maulana Azad Library, Aligarh Muslim University
21 http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/iran/ardekan.htm accessed on 20 May 2018 22 https://www.iranwatch.org/iranian-entities/ardakan-yellowcake-production-plant accessed on 21 May 2018 23 www.isisnucleariiran.org/sites/detail/parchin/ accessed on 21 May 2018 24 https://www.bbc.com uploaded on14, July 2015 accessed on 26 May 2018 25 https://www.iranwatch.org/iranian-entities/yazd-radiation-processing-centre accessed on 29 May 2018
117 Chapter -4
uranium mine also comes in Yazd province along with the uranium facility at Ardakan. This radiation processing centre has the Rhodotron TT200 accelerator made by IBA, Belgium with outputs of 5 and 10 Mev beam lines and a maximum power of 100 kw.26
Lavizan – Shian
The secret programme of weapon of mass destruction is alleged to be going at Lavizan Shian technological research centre in the Lavizan Shian district of north western Tehran. This biological and nuclear weapon centre was established in 1990s during Khatmi’s Presidency (1997-2005) by ministry of defence of Iran. This site was demolished due to IAEA enquiry and inspection’s fear but all the nuclear and biological weapons were shifted to 60 acre military facility Lavizan 2 in Tehran district.
The nuclear enrichment site also exists in Laskharabad near Hashtgerd region of Tehran province. Iran had constructed an enrichment facility in Hashtgerd region of Tehran province in 2000 for laser enrichment facility. This site was designed to assist the uranium enrichment in Natanz.
According to authorities, “the uranium metal was located at Lashkarabad from December 2002 to May 2003. The equipment was dismantled in May 2003 and transferred together with uranium metal to Karaj Iranian authorities had told that “the laboratory had originally been devoted to laser fusion research and laser spectroscopy” but the aim changed.27
Nuclear development and it effect on regional countries
Iran had supported the Palestinians had given the anti-Israeli speeches and opposed the United States interference in the region. The hostage crises which has worsen the situation by such actions of Iran, it became isolated and had suffered sanctions, embargoes and being labeled as ‘axis of evils’. Currently Iran is fighting with Maulanadomestic Azad and international Library, crises like, Aligarh nuclear issues, Muslim accusation of University supporting and
26 https://www.nti.org/learn/facilities/247/ accessed on 1 June 2018 27 Ali Reza Jafarzadeh. op. cit., pp.144 -149
118 Chapter -4
sponsoring terrorism. Iran had seen three wars on its border one by other America, against Taliban in Afghanistan and the two wars in Iraq.28
It is Iran which and triggered the Middle East nuclear weapons competition and had violated non-proliferation obligation. Iran had conducted all the possible measure for development and advancement of nuclear weapon with dual use of nuclear technologies. Tehran’s nuclear programme is looked upon as a way for establishing regional hegemony and has raised concern among neighbouring countries. Iran’s neighbours too for their defence will go for seeking nuclear weapons capabilities of their own. Due to the fear of international and regional security order United States
went for comprehensive plan of action (JCPOA) between P5+1which includes China, France, Germany, Russia, United States and United Kingdom in which Iran had reduced its uranium enrichment capacity, redesigned its plutonium production reactor by which production of fissile materials for nuclear weapons will be reduced and in return sanctions against Iran will be terminated.29
Iran’s nuclear programme had given stress and insecurity among its neighbouring states specially Arab GCC states and Israel and by this its neighbour will go for counter nuclear development.30
It is generally believed that if Iran gets nuclear status it will enhance her influence on the Arab States specially the Sunni states that will take the colour of Shia and Sunni rift which is very much visible from today’s condition of Middle East. There is also threat among its neighbours specially Israel and America that a nuclear Iran will use nuclear weapons on Israel and may go for war. Iran is very much concerned and desperate about its influence in region. The situation and history of Afghanistan and Iraq is very much in front of Iran. The role of United States in Middle East was bitter and unacceptable for Iran. Possession of nuclear weapons by Israel (though Israel has neither accepted nor rejected) has given Iran isolation and insecurity. Another major reason behind Iran’s quest for nuclear aims is its harsh relations with America and its Maulanaallies. There is Azadthreat of U.S. Library, capturing of IranAligarh as it did in Muslim Iraq even Iraq University did not possessed nuclear or chemical weapons. Iran actually believes that if Iraq was having
28 M. Hamid Ansari. Iran Today: 25 Years After the Islamic Revolution, Published by Rupa and Co- 2005, p.107 29 https://www.brookings.edu/.../the-iran-nuclear-deal-prelude-to-proliferation-in-the-middle-east accessed on 4 June 2018 30 https://www.e-ir.info/2014/.../the-iranian-nuclear-programme accessed on 5 June 2018
119 Chapter -4
weapons of mass destruction United States must not had attacked twice in 1990s and later on during 2003. So, for Iran nuclear weapon will create a shield or will create in United States for attacking Iran. Iran also has stressed relations with GCC (Gulf cooperation council) countries specially Saudi Arabia. Iran knows that Saudi Arabia possess well equipped military establishment which is backed by U.S. as United States is close ally of Saudi Arabia and Israel in Middle East. These are threats for Iran for which it had to find alternative security arrangement. Iran is actually maximizing its security by acquiring nuclear weapons as explained by Kenneth Waltz in his theory of ‘neo-realism’ or ‘structural realism.’ In 2005 Ahmedinejad said in his election campaign speech that it Iran’s desire of acquiring nuclear weapon he said,
“I don’t agree with those who say the nuclear issue has created crises for the country. Nuclear technology is our right and no one can deprive us of having it we have come so far and by God willing we need just one more push [to reach it]”.
For Arab world including west is concerned and worried with Iran’s nuclear development. The response of major countries in Middle East like Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt is that, they consider Iran’s nuclear project will comprise with the security of the region and will give another state a reason to launch nuclear technologies of its own.
The King Abdullah of Jordan stated “the rules of the game have changed” consequently, uncovering Iran’s nuclear activities paved the way for revitalization of nuclear programme.
The nuclear weapon development of Iran had given discomfort among Arab countries as Iran’s involvement in internal matters of neighbouring countries like Yemen, Syria, Iraq, etc had created fear among Arab countries of Iran’s hegemonic and dominant role.
In Middle East the balance of power, will only be possible if Iran acquires nuclear Maulanaweapons, Azad Israel too Library, take off its nuclear Aligarh weapons technology Muslim program Universityme. Israel and Saudi Arabia with the help of United States seems prepare to take out Iran’s nuclear programme by launching preemptive strike.
Iran targets of having its control on Strait of Hormuz and other oil supply route as well as Iran had supported Shiite revolution in other Middle Eastern countries. To
120 Chapter -4
gain regional hegemony is also the reason for nuclear programme of Iran which is launched by Iran as ‘security dilemma’ which will create arms race and acquisition of nuclear weapon. Iran had history of hostile relationship with Israel and U.S. on religious base and Iran calls for eradication or wiping out of Israel. While Israel stated that if diplomacy got failed only one option will be left for them and that will be of military attack on Iran.
During Iran-Iraq war Iraq had attacked Iran’s nuclear installations, which Iran views as backed by United States.
U.S. support to Saudi Arabia, Iran’s Ideological regional enemy is also the factor that had encouraged Iran to go for better security mechanism that is “nuclear weapon”. United States economic interests and strategic interest will also get affected by the interest will also get affected by the Iran’s nuclear programme as United States considers Middle Eastern oil and strategic location as its own property.31
Iran is making its come back into the international community and international community too had one choice left for improving relation and confidence building with Iran. Europeans, Russians, Chinese Japanese and even the United States had tried to build up better relations with most stable state in the area that is Iran. Iran is making itself a stronger and unavoidable partner for the security and the development of the area.32
Iran’s secret agents are active in countries of Europe, Asia and North African states. Iran is the main source of terror on American and Saudi interests in Arabian Peninsula. There is also evidence of Iranian links with Bin Laden.
Even Israel’s defence Minister, Benjamin Ben-Eliezer had told to journalists that in February, 2002 in New York that” more and more information is coming that members of Al-Qaida are entering Lebanon and joining Hezbollah”. He had called Imad Mughniyah “worse than Bin Laden. Imad Mughniyah, was a senior member of MaulanaLebanon’s Islamic Azad Jihad organiz Library,ation and Hezbollah. Aligarh33 Muslim University
31 www.ndu.edu.pk/issra.pdf accessed on 6 June 2018 32 M. Hamid Ansari. op. cit., p.111 33 Al. J. Venter. Iran’s Nuclear Option: Tehran’s Quest for Atom Bomb, Published by CASEMATE- 2005, pp. 214-216
121 Chapter -4
Iran has a desire of playing dominant role in Gulf region Iran had clash with Saudi Arabia over the issues like claiming Bahrain as its territory, clash over Persian Gulf to be called as Arabian Gulf, confrontation over offshore oil in the mid- Gulf and their respective companies drilling in the disputed waters and execution of Saudi Shia Cleric Sheikh Nimr etc.34 All these cases had led the relation from bad to worse. In Middle East there are two key players, one is Saudi Arabia and other is Iran. Iran is Shia state and Saudi Arabia is Sunni, and their difference had divided the whole region in Shia and Sunni camps and these two states are fighting proxy wars in the other Middle Eastern states like Yemen, Syria etc.
In Syria Iran had supported Syrian President Bashar al-Assad its elite Islamic revolutionary guard corps (IRGCs) are backing Assad against Sunni jihadists in Syria as well as in Iraq.
Iran and United States share tense relationship and Saudi Arabia had very cordial relation with United States. Iran accuses United States for playing double standard as it had not criticized radical Islam in Saudi Arabia on the other land it had linked Iran to terrorism and had accused Iran of sponsoring terrorism. As the President of United States Trump’s first visit was to Saudi Arabia and Israel which are the two biggest enemy of Iran in the region.
Iran and Israel are foe from day Israel come to existence and had called for eradication of state of Israel even Israel and Saudi Arabia were against the nuclear deal and calls it “aggressive”.
In Lebanon there is proxy war going in between Iran and Saudi Arabia as Lebanon’s Prime Minister Saad Hariri who had announced his resignation from Saudi Arabia and had good relations with Saudi government while Hezbollah is an ally of Iran which operates from Lebanon. Its leader Hassan Nasrallah had criticized the Saudi Arabian government.
MaulanaAll the GulfAzad States Library, are close to Saudi Aligarh Arabia but inMuslim recent times QatarUniversity and Saudi Arabian relations got tensed and Saudi Arabia had imposed blockade on Qatar, UAE, Egypt and Bahrain had backed Saudi Arabia the reason of blockade was Saudi
34 Faisal Bin Salman. op. cit., pp.33-35
122 Chapter -4
Arabia’s demand to break ties with Iran which Qatar denied and has restored full diplomatic relations with Iran.
Bahrain and Kuwait are inclined towards Saudi Arabia. Bahrain accused Iran “that it is one of the country most affected by the expansionist policy of the Iranian republican guard”. While Kuwait had not imposed blockade on Qatar but it had taken Saudi Arabian’s side.35
Form study we come across that the politics of Middle East revolves around two states Saudi Arabia and Iran. The nuclear Iran is a threat for Saudi Arabia as well as for Israel, as Iran will become more influential and powerful if sanctions will be lifted, Iran’s economical and geopolitical status will also increase. It will create a balance of power in the region by which it will become the most influential country of Middle East other than Saudi Arabia. Iran is still influencing the regional politics and internal conflicts of the region in the states like Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. Despite the clergy rule it is one of the most stable states of the region. Israel had opposed the deal as it looks Iran as greatest threat of the region and Iran had opposed Israel and had supported Palestinians cause and calls to wipe it off from map.36 For Israel it is only Iran which can challenge Israel” and Israel knows that if Iran succeed in building bomb its first nuclear target will be Israel. Arab League expresses its concerns about Iran’s nuclear threat in a wider content than the Europeans and the United States do. The Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister Saud al-Faisal in May 2006 had said, “definitely the threat of the spread of atomic weapons in the region is a threat to the countries of the region”.
The United States analysis of a nuclear armed Iran in future focuses on six points according to Robert G. Joseph, the state department’s under secretary, secretary for arms control and international security-
1. The nuclear development will help Iran to carry out its “aggressive ambitions” Maulanain Middle Azad East and outside.Library, Aligarh Muslim University 2. Iran will be the direct threat for U.S. forces in Middle East and by acquiring and possessing nuclear weapon Iran will blackmail others.
35 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-41945860 accessed on 10 June 2018 36 https://tribune.com.pk uploaded on 8 July 2015 accessed on 20 June 2018
123 Chapter -4
3. Countries and Iran may use chemical and biological weapon without fear of retaliation. 4. “Nuclear proliferation” is the biggest threat if Iran owns nuclear weapons. 5. “Nuclear” Iran will be biggest threat for Israel’s existence. 6. Iran’s role “at the news of weapons of mass destruction and terrorism” it is fear in the international community that Iran may “sell nuclear weapon” to other countries or terrorists groups.
A supreme leader Khomeini and President of Kayban newspaper told news week in August 2006, “a new Middle East is being shaped now- not one led by the Americans but by the Islamic republic of Iran”.
Islamic revolutionary guard corps which is having full control of Iran’s nuclear drive and former IRGC commander Ahmadinejad became President and IRGC became indirectly an omnipresent political security force and supervising the regime’s nuclear drive. The IRGC is supposed to be the main force behind sponsorship of terrorism, commissioned to execute special operation and training of terrorist organizations outside Iran. Iranian nuclear weapon is a threat to stability and security of the region as well to a democratic world.37
President Trump in his campaign had promised to “dismantle the disastrous deal with Iran” but this JCPOA is working and had authorized Iran’s “technical compliance” with the terms of the deal in April and July 2017. United States considers Iran as supporter of terrorism and argues that it had breached the deal by continuous testing of ballistic missiles.38
Maulana Azad Library, Aligarh Muslim University
37 Ali Reza Jafarzadeh. The Iran Threat: President Ahmadinejad and the comning Nuclear crisis, Palgrave Macmillan publisher, 2007, pp.202-206 38 www.nti.org updated on July 2017 accessed on 22 June 2018.
124
Chapter -5 Trends and Future prospects for Middle East
Maulana Azad Library, Aligarh Muslim University Chapter -5
CHAPTER -5
TRENDS AND FUTURE PROSPECTS FOR MIDDLE EAST
The region of Middle East is going through major political turmoil that had resulted into the phase of instability and bloodshed in the region. None of the states of Middle East is untouched by this upheaval. Countries like Syria, Yemen, Iraq, Egypt, Tunisia and Palestine all are going through their worst period.
The conflicts and war in West Asia is not new, earlier there were religious conflict and wars for the rich resources and land. After the decline of Ottoman Empire, the new European and colonial powers came in who were interested in securing various territories and wanted to control the route to Asia. After the discovery of oil, the international interest in the region got diverted from religious, territorial and access to other part of the world to the interest in natural energy resource present there.
The negative propaganda and defaming of Arabs and Islam (Islamic Terrorism) which is the dominant religion of Middle East had been given as justification for interference and involvement in the region in the name of “stability” or “to bring stability” for the national interests of great powers who wanted to get involved in the region. We cannot deny the fact that after 9/11 Middle East is looked upon in different way as anti Semitic, neo- Nazi and anti-West. Other negative labels like “rouge states” or ‘evil states’ were used for Iran and earlier for Iraq also. For Arabs, they feel that West had supported the over throw of government who were not in favour of them.
The region of Middle East is the most militarized in the world. Most of the arms sale is in this region and United States is the biggest supplier following Russia, France, China and Britain.
The U.S. involvement and war on terror became one of the basic reasons behind the problems and upheavals in the region and resulted into the rise of Islamic militancy Maulanaand anti -AzadWest sentiment. Library, The Iraq warAligarh had given theMuslim religious and University ethnic groups which become the terrorist organizations or non-state actors and had occupied the region in the name of ISIS / ISIL. The major cause of their birth and growth is power
125
Chapter -5
vacuum with the aim of occupying the land of Syria, Iraq and even Lebanon to make one state the Islamic state which will come under one Caliph.1
The protest which is popularly known as ‘Arab spring’ has occurred throughout the region. In Middle East there are authoritarian regimes of various kinds like monarchies, dictatorship, religious, republic etc and irony is this that most of the regimes get legitimized and supported by West which is the pioneer of democracy and human rights along with former Soviet Union. The Corrupt and dictatorial but West friendly states get assistance in form of military aid and military assistance by stationing forces at the bases in the Middle Eastern region by which the influence of outside super powers had increased and they have backed illegitimate regimes. The term illegitimate is used because almost the states all are authoritarian and anti- democracy.
Arabs are one following almost same culture, religion, language and region but boundaries are created by colonial powers to divide and conquer the Arab region as we all very well know that it is an old policy of colonial power to “divide and rule”.
The protest had spread all over Arab like ‘forest fire’ but the reasons of protest were different. The common thing was that every protest was against the existing regime. Some of the protest was on the basis of jobs, or unemployment and corruption like in Egypt while protest in Bahrain was on historical basis as Bahrain is a Shia Majority state with Sunni ruler and this is the reason why Iran had always claimed Bahrain as its part as both states share common religion and culture. Social media had played a very basic and important role in the Arab spring. Some protests took the colour of violence and some were non-violent like in Libya the Libyan security forces became very aggressive and killed many protesters. In Egypt the protest was almost non- violent as military had refused to attack protesters except in few cases at very initial stage. In Oman the protest was non-violent while Saudi Arabia, the most authoritative and anti-democratic regime but a west friendly state had banned all protests. There Maulanawas news that alongAzad with the Library, announcement Aligarhof ban there was Muslim another announcement University of 15% pay rise for state employees plus other benefits and funds for various groups which is looked upon as bribe by pro-democratic people to pacify the protest.
1 www.globalissues.org accessed on 12 April 2018 126
Chapter -5
Stability for the west means secured energy access, according to Noam Chomsky, the U.S. and its allies would want to prevent democracy in the Arab world because the region was less susceptible to western influence.
As we have discussed in the earlier chapters that the basic reason of Western interference are -
1. Energy security 2. Military
Energy security– All our infrastructure from medical, agriculture, transportation to luxury appliances and the most important the military equipments all depends on energy which is found in abundance in Middle East. So, the primary concern of not only West, but whole world is –
1. Exhaustion or draining out of oil and fossil fuel. 2. As these fuels are at selected places of the earth like Persian/Arabian Gulf in the Middle East so the other countries had to rely on foreign sources for energy. 3. Geopolitics– all the politics of the region revolves around the “Energy security”. Favouring dictatorship in the name of “stability” of the oil producing states shows that West is only concerned for free flow of oil to them. 4. Oil draining by external powers had led to the birth of terrorism” and evolution of deadly terrorist organization like “ISIS” as native Arabs feel that external powers are forcefully draining their resources and Arabs are living a miserable life. 5. Demands from emerging powers of the third world countries like China and India for petroleum and hydrocarbons.
Military-the military interest is seen from two vision one is the geopolitical the other Maulanais the selling Azad of large Library, amount of arms Aligarh and ammunition Muslim and military Universitytraining by the western powers. From 2002-2009 the largest importer of western arms is Middle East in which Saudi Arabia tops the list following U.A.E, Egypt and Iraq. Among the suppliers United States is the major supplier which manages roughly half of the sale
127
Chapter -5
to the region, the other 25% is done by European countries, Russia does 10% of sale while China manages 3% of sale.2
From 2011, head of the state of Tunisia, Egypt and Libya have been driven to exile and some are convicted. There is unrest in countries like Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen.
In Bahrain the pro-democracy protest erupted in February 2011 but protest was cracked down by the Saudi Arabia’s help and assistance as the ruler of Bahrain is a Sunni and its population is Shia in majority. In Egypt Hosni Mubarak in 2011 had resigned and convicted in 2013. The anti government protest erupted and democratically elected President Mohammed Morsi was removed and a rift began in between the Islamist and secular groups. In Iraq there is religious and political violence as there is Shia majority governing and this resulted into unrest among Sunnis and Kurds.3
In Lebanon also there is situation of political and religious violence as Shia militant group Hezbollah is very active and is Lebanon based group, it is pro-Assad while the opposition is soft towards the Syrian rebels. In recent time Lebanon’s Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri had resigned and accused Hezbollah of planning to assassinate him. He too had accused Hezbollah of “directing weapons” at Yemenis, Syrians and Lebanese though after returning from Saudi Arabia Hariri had withdrawn his resignation.4
Libya is also going through disturbance as large part of Libya is controlled by the militias and the frequent clashes between rival militias which results into unrest.5
Yemen is also passing though worst time due to civil war. It is one of the poorest countries of Arab world. The authoritarian president Ali Abdullah Saleh had forcefully transferred his power to his deputy Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi in 2011.
Hadi had to deal with problems like Al-Qaida, Separatist movements in which the Houthi movement was the major one which was the Shia movement and got the local Maulanasupport and in 2014Azad- 2015 Library, the rebels took overAligarh Sanaa, due Muslim to the fear of ShiaUniversity and Iranian influence and backing, Saudi Arabia along with Sunni Arab states began air
2 www.globalissus.org updated on 12 May 2011 accessed on 6 April 2018 3 https://www.thoughtco.com/current-situation-in-the-middle-east accessed on 4 April 2018 4 https://edition.cnn.com/2018/02/27/ accessed on 8 April 2018 5 www.libya-analysis.com accessed on 7 April 2018 128
Chapter -5
strikes for restoring Hadi’s government. The Saudi Arabia and other Sunni Arab states had got the U.S, U.K. and France’s intelligence and military support. Jihadist militants of Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and Islamic state group (IS) became part of this unrest and chaos and had carried out deadly attacks. The whole Arab world got shaken when a ballistic missile was launched towards Riyadh in November 2017 due to which blockade of Yemen was done to stop smuggling from Iran. We can say that there is proxy war between Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia supported by Sunni Arab countries while Houthi rebels had supported the Saleh regime. The Houthi’s are backed by Iran while Hadi got support from Saudi Arabia to restore his government.6
Syria is also going through civil war. It had also become the battle ground for the Shia-Sunni rift between Saudi Arabia and Iran. As the state of Shia majority Iran, Iraq and Lebanon and the Lebanon, based Hezbollah had supported Assad regime while Sunni majority countries like Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar had supported anti-Assad group. The United States had armed anti-Assad rebel groups and had led an international coalition for bombing ISIL.
The countries like Israel had taken part in attacks on Syria while Russia had backed the Bashar al-Assad regime along with Iran which is close ally of Assad regime and supported his Alawite dominated government, even Iran had assisted Hezbollah’s decision to send fighters to assist pro-Assad forces.7 We can’t ignore the fact that Syria is the main transit point for Iranian weapons shipment to Lebanon for Hezbollah.
The Syrian civil war had given global crises of refugees which is the largest humanitarian crises since the end of World War II. Syrians have poured across the borders since anti-government protests in 2011 that had resulted into deadly war between rebels, government troops and external forces who are backing President Basher al-Assad. According to amnesty international, Syrian refugees have sought Maulanashetter inAzad five countries Library, throughout theAligarh Middle East Muslimthese are – Turkey University, Lebanon,, Jordan, Iraq and Egypt among them Turkey is largest host country but none of the six states from the Gulf cooperation council – Saudi Arabia, Oman, United Arab
6 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29319423 accessed on 13 April 2018 7 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east uploaded on 30 Oct 2015 accessed on 12 April 2018 129
Chapter -5
Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar had not taken refugees. They say that they had signed the U.N. convention on refugees had taken thousands of Syrians since the civil war had begun. Almost all the countries of Middle East is going through political instability and unrest.8
Apart from the chaos and political unrest in the countries of Middle East which is affecting the region, there is another major issue which is supposed to be the root cause of all unrest as it had created the insecurity and hatred for western powers among Arabs and that is the Israel-Palestine conflict which is not only the regions conflict but had taken shape of the world’s longest ongoing and endless conflict. The conflict had its base from Sykes-Picot agreement which was done on May 19, 1916 in which the representatives of Britain and France had reached to an accord in which most of the Arab lands under Ottoman Empire were divided into British and French spheres of influence when these power had left, there become the power vacuum which was filled again by a Western State that is United States and its influence and involvement is still there. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is over who gets what land and how to have control over the land.
The Jews and Arabs both claim the ownership of land from historical and religious basis, because of persecution of Jews in Europe, Jews wanted to establish a national homeland which was the Muslim majority territory and was under British mandate. In 1897 the first Zionist congress was inspired by Theodor Herzel’s vision of the Jewish state which was considered as right of the Jewish people.9 This right was acknowledged by the Belfour declaration of Nov 2, 1917 and reaffirmed by the mandate of the League of Nations which gave explicit international recognition to historic connection of the Jewish people with Palestine. On 29 Nov 1947 the general assembly of the United Nations had adopted a resolution for the establishment of the Jewish state in Palestine.10 The United Nation in 1947 had divided the area into two zones one is Israeli and other one Palestinian which had resulted into continued Maulanaviolence between Azad Jewish settlers Library, and Palestinians Aligarh along with Muslim the Arab countries University like Iraq, Jordon Syria and Egypt which come in direct confrontation with Israel. After the establishment of Israel there were frequent attacks sponsored by Palestinian liberation
8 www.aljazeera.com uploaded on 25 May 2017 accessed on 20 April 2018 9 http://lawstreetmedia.com uploaded on 18 Jan 2015 accessed on 22 April 2018 10 Robert G. Landen. The Emergence of Modern Middle East: Selected Readings, Van Nostrand Publisher-1970, pp.288-289 130
Chapter -5
organization (PLO). There were intifada or uprising by Palestinians in 1980 and 2000 in which the peaceful protest had turned into violent and bloody struggle.
The Arab-Israeli conflict is the oldest and most important destabilizing force in the region and had given birth to Hamas, Hezbollah and Muslim Brotherhood movement in 1980s who fought against Israeli occupation of Arab land. Other major areas of concern in the Middle East are –
(a) The non-state actors and revolutionaries (b) Nuclear programme of Iran. (c) Iran and Saudi Arabia, the regional rivals. (d) Oil-exhaustion and falling of oil price.11
Non-state actors get empowered by the state actors for the proxy wars in the region of Middle East.
The domestic, regional and global powers all are struggling in the region. Major powers such as Russia and United States along with the regional powers like Saudi Arabia and Iran are fighting against each other beyond their territories, in this struggle the non-states actors are playing decisive role in shaping the power struggles between major state powers. There is history of support and assistance of non-state actors by states like, al-Qaida and Taliban were supported by United States and were used as proxy forces of United State against the Russian invasion of Afghanistan. Other examples are Iran’s relationship with Hezbollah, Qatar’s relation with Muslim brotherhood, the Russian and U.S. support to the Syrian and Iraqi Kurds are the proof that how much these non-state actors are influential in the region and these proxy alliances are playing vital role in giving shape that is political and religious in the region. The non-state actors are born and grown where there is power vacuum and power vacuum is the result of weak government or state which attracts the outsiders. The non-state actors are challengers or partners to their governments and some time Maulanachallenger Azad to one government Library, and ca Aligarhn be partner to Muslim other. The non -Universitystate actors are now becoming trans-border actors with regional influence and become attractive to regional powers as partners and proxy agents. The non -state actors rely on external states for financial, political and military support and become attractive group and
11 https://lawstreetmedia.com uploaded on 18 Jan 2015 accessed on 22 April 2018 131
Chapter -5
strategic partner for outside forces with regional ambitions. The non-state actors influence the regional balance of power.12
Nuclear programme of Iran – Iran had admitted in 2004 that it is engaged in nuclear weapon programme and doing its research and development for eighteen years. Iran had concluded a comprehensive safeguards agreement with the international atomic energy agency (IAEA) in December 1974 and become one of the first countries to sign the (Nuclear) Non-proliferation treaty (NPT).13
In 1957 the civil nuclear programme was established under the US “atoms for peace programme” and in 1974 the Shah had a target of 23,000 MWE of nuclear capacity to free oil and gas for export only. In 1975 the construction of two 1,293 MWE PWR units was started at 18km south of Bushehr. In Bushehr province on the Persian Gulf the programme was halted and it was damaged by Iraqi air strikes in 1984-88. The Tehran research reactor (TRR) and a molybdenum, iodine and xenon radioisotope production facility (MIX) which was working for nuclear development and under the monitoring of IAEA, there is nuclear technology centre of Isfahan which operates four small nuclear research reactors, all are supplied by China.14
Iran had also been carrying the construction of 40MW heavy water moderated reactor at Arak fuelled by natural uranium. In 2003 the two secret sites were disclosed at Natanz and Arak. Iran is investing highly in developing its fuel cycle facilities. The uranium mining and milling is done at Saghand and the production of yellow cake is carried out at Ardakan. Enrichment is done at Natanz while fuel fabrication is carried out at Isfahan and an interim waste facility is at Arak. All are over seen by (AEOI) atomic energy organization of Iran along with Tehran research reactor / nuclear research centre in Tehran (TNR), the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Centre (INTC), the nuclear research centre for agriculture and medicine and the Beneficiation and Hydrometallurgical Research Centre (BHRC). The AEOI was created by Shah to oversee the nuclear programme’s expansion in 1973. Maulana Azad Library, Aligarh Muslim University
12 Lorenzo Kamel. The Frailty of Authority: Borders, Non-State Actors and Power Vacuums in a Changing Middle East, Edizioni Nuova Cultura Publisher- 2017, pp. 67-71 13 Al J.Venter. Iran’s Nuclear Options: Tehran’s Quest for the Atom Bomb, Manas Publications-2005, p.19 14 www.worldnuclear.org accessed on 24 April 2018 132
Chapter -5
Iran had made remarkable progress in developing variety of advance guided missiles. Tehran had disclosed its nuclear programme in 2003 to Vienna’s International Atomic Energy Agency. It had also disclosed that it had launched programmes to produce plutonium and enriched uranium and the country was able to successfully fire the occasional test missile over longer distances. The central intelligence agency on November 12, 2003 had informed that ballistic missile related cooperation from countries like former Soviet Union, North Korea and China over the years had helped Iran in gaining its goal of becoming self-sufficient in the production of ballistic missiles.
The assistance to Iran by these countries had continued till 2003 mid which included the supply of equipment technology and expertise. Iran’s ballistic missile inventory is among the largest in the Middle East which includes some eight hundred mile range Shahab-3, medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) and a few hundred short range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) which includes the Shahab-1 (Scud-B), Shahab-2 (Scud C) and Tonder-69 (CSS-8) and a variety of large unguided rockets. Iran lad already announced that it had begun production of the Shahab-3 (MEBM) and the Fateh-110 which was a solid propellant (SRBM), this is the information released by the Iranian press on 11 Sep 2002. Iran had also accepted of developing the advance version of Shahab-3, the Shahab-4 which later was labeled as space launch vehicle with no military purpose. The work on long range ballistic missile is also going on. From information that are leaked or given by Iranian government Iran is very much in hurry and is advancing its nuclear weapon development programme. On 17 April CNN ran a news that Iran is rushing to build nuke bomb which had created fear in international community especially in Western states. The United States was convinced that Tehran has been pursuing a clandestine nuclear weapons programme and doing violation as a party to the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT). Iran wanted to establish domestic nuclear fuel- cycle capabilities and technology that can support fissile material production for nuclear weapon programme. Iran had presented its Maulanaprogram meAzad as civilian Library, nuclear energy Aligarh programme toMuslim justify its efforts University to establish domestically or acquire assorted nuclear fuel-cycle capabilities. It was in 2002 the opposition group in Iran had disclosed that Iran was secretly building a heavy water production plant and a nuclear fuel’ plant later it got confirmed that there was the ‘fuel’ plant and likely a large uranium centrifuge enrichment facility located at Natanz
133
Chapter -5
and it was seen in commercial imagery that Iran had buried the enrichment facility in order to hide it and harden it against any military attack.15
Recently Iran had tested a new ballistic missile that is reportedly capable of carrying multiple war heads which was disclosed at a military parade in Tehran, this missile was named as Khorramshahr missile which has the range of 1,250 miles (2000 km) this missile would easily be capable of reaching Israel and Saudi Arabia.16
Iran and Saudi Arabia are the regional rivals. The dispute between the two Middle Eastern nations has deep religious, historic and political roots. On the one hand Saudi Arabia is a strict conservative Wahabi state while Iran is Shia state, because of this ideological fight there is power struggle in the region. The politics of Middle East revolves around these two countries. In between Iran and Saudi Arabia there is clash for regional hegemony. Both countries are fighting proxy war in other countries like Syria, Yemen and Lebanon, where Iran is supporting the Hezbollah and Saudi Arabia is backing the Prime Minister Saad Hariri. Both Iran and Saudi Arabia are supporting and backing the militant groups related to their ideology as Iran is alleged of funding Hezbollah while Saudi Arabia was also alleged of funding extremist groups like al- Qaida. No doubt that Iran’s influence in the region is growing day by day and Iran is the only Arab country which had been growing its own domestic nuclear project. Saudi Arabia is very much insecure because of the growing influence of Iran in the region and to counter this Shia influence, Saudi Arabia had allied all the Sunni government in the region to form the Gulf Cooperation Council Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are conservative Sunni Muslim countries who supported Iraq in its almost seven year old war against Iran which began in 1980.17 The violence in Mecca was openly seen as conflict between Shia Muslim regime and Sunni Muslim regimes. 18Tehran was alleged for exporting militant to other Arab nations. Saudi Arabia had even suspended diplomatic ties with Iran for three years. Saudi Arabia feels insecure by the establishment of Islamic republic but tension got shot up again when MaulanaAhmadinejad came Azad to power Library, and supported Aligarhhard-line steps Muslim in foreign policy University. Later Arab spring had further raised the tensions especially in Bahrain where Shia Muslims had protested against the Sunni royal family. Saudi Arabia had sent its troops to curb
15 Al J. Venter. op. cit., p.1,17,195,204 16 https://www.cnn.com uploaded on 24 Sep 2017 accessed on 2 May 2018 17 http://www.cfr.org accessed on 3 May 2018 18 https://www.nytimes.com uploaded on 2 Aug 1987 accessed on 2 May 2018 134
Chapter -5
the uprising and had blamed Iran for provoking the unrest. The regional conflict had made these two countries to stand in opposite sides in Syria and Yemen. In 2015 hundreds of Iranians were killed in a stampede during annual Hajj in Saudi Arabia for which Tehran had accused Riyadh of mismanagement. Saudi Arabia had executed Shia cleric Nimr al Nimr in January 2016 because of which Saudi embassy in Tehran was attacked by protesters.19 The Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman had met U.S. President Donald Trump in which both the leaders had opposed the expansionist moves of Iran in the region and its support for terrorist organizations. Though Iran had several times moved forward for establishing the good relations with Saudi Arabia but in recent times Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman had said that there is no space for dialogue with Iran due to its ambition “to control the Islamic world” and spreading the Shia doctrines on which Iran reacted that Saudi Arabia supports terrorism and is carrying destructive policies in the region and towards Iran. Iran had blamed Saudi Arabia of supporting Saddam Hussein by financing Saddam’s aggression against Iran from 1980-1988 however it had later opposed the Saddam’s step of invasion of Kuwait and threat against Saudi Arabia resulted into collective opposition by all regional countries, of Saddam Hussein. Iran further had blamed Saudi Arabia of financing. Al-Qaida and Taliban in 1990s, ISIS and al-Nusrah in Iraq and Syria were also supported by Saudi Arabia that became threat not only to region but to entire globe. We can say that this blame game and stressed relationship between Iran and Saudi Arabia is to gain regional hegemony and the base of all tension is ideological and religious difference.20
Oil – we have already discussed in previous chapter that Middle East possesses at least half of the world’s petroleum reserves. The strategic position and its petroleum resources make region of Middle East the most volatile and tense area. If we see the need of petroleum, it is must for security as in contemporary “world oil is power”. Its use varies as in the time of peace for establishment of industries and systems of transportation and at the time of war all the equipments of war like warship, tank, Maulanamissile launcherAzad, or Library, jet fighter in or Aligarh out of the battle Muslim zone needs oil. University From present scenario it looks that petroleum is even more essential to the conduct of war than it is
19 https://www.wilsoncentre.org uploaded on 5 Jan 2016 accessed on 6 May 2018 20 https://iranprimer.usip.org uploaded on 6 Jan 2016 accessed on 5 May 2018 135
Chapter -5
to the activities of peace.21 So all the international, geo-political concern and conflict regarding oil is because of its limited or uneven distribution and deposit in the earth crust. History is full of conflicts for having control over oil producing region in which the big powers like United States, Russia, Britain and Germany had used arms for having control on oil fields. The three major regional oil powers are Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia.22
The Middle Eastern oil had sustained the U.S. economy growth and development of technologies but had also sown seeds of the anti U.S sentiments that had resulted into radical terrorism. Arabs feels that West is draining their oil and terrorists like Osama Bin Laden came out of this insecurity and had called the Muslim world to take-up violence against U.S, and its allies. Such dependency on natural resources had increased the risk of national security.23
In the words of Al-Qaida, “oil is the provision line and the feeding to the artery of the life of the crusader nation”24 intellectual groups those oppose United States military intervention argue that the “war on terror” is the means and better reason for ‘imperialist oil grab’ in the region. This war on terror’ became ‘war of liberation’ against oil funded dictators.25 The Bush administration’s decision to fill up the strategic petroleum reserve shows the threat of oil shortage and its importance.
Thus it is very clear that oil is linked to violence and conflict. In context of Middle East, oil and natural gas has overshadowed any other significance of the region. This region also possesses more than 30% of world’s proven reserves of natural gas. The gulf region of Middle East is blessed with 26 out of 37 super giant fields in which each consists of 5 billion barrels or more oil, is non renewable hydro carbon resource while petroleum which refers to both oil and natural gas is largest consumable energy source. Oil is the vital life link for both the producers and consumers. Its strategic nature and utmost usability in international trade make it so important that it cannot be separated from international politics and power structure. The relationship of oil and Maulana Azad Library, Aligarh Muslim University 21 Halbord L. Hoskins. The Middle East Problem Area in the world politics, Macmillan Company New York- 1954, pp. 189-196 22 West Asia: An Introduction- Centre of West Asian Studies, AMU, 1994, p.265 23 www.iags.org accessed on 10 May 2018 24 Jan H. Kalicki and David L. Goldwyn. Energy and secusity: Strategies For A World In Transition, Woodrow Wilson Centre Press, 2013, pp.322-326 25Philippe Le Billion and Fouad El Khatib. From free oil to ‘freedom oil’: terrorism, war and US Geopolitics in the Persian Gulf, Journal Geopolitics, Volume 9, 2004, pp.109-137 136
Chapter -5
power structure is simple as “oil is energy, Energy is wealth and used with political acumen is the route of power”. The two world wars evidently showed that the nation which does not possess or have access to oil wealth would remain vulnerable.26
The world specially the super powers had realized the significance of oil as the power factor in the world politics and whoever controls the oil fields would have the power to make peace or war. The world oil resources right from the time of its discovery remained under the hands of seven major international oil companies until OPEC was formed in 1960.27 OPEC is the organization of the petroleum exporting countries (OPEC). It is the permanent inter-governmental organization of oil exporting developing nations that look after the petroleum policies of its member states. It ensures the stabilization of oil price in international oil market, regulars the supply to the consuming nations and fair return of capital to those investing in petroleum industry.
OPEC controls 61% of world’s oil export and holds 80% of the world’s proven oil reserves. OPEC’s decision has its impact on future oil prices.28
The oil politics is between three main contenders, the big international concerns, the producing countries and the consuming countries.29
Several world events have led to major oil disruptions in the past two decades these are – the 1973 Arab oil embargo, the Iranian revolution (1979), the eight year Iran- Iraq war, Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait and the subsequent embargo on Iraqi supply. The political stability in the Middle East is must as it is the need of time. This region is major energy supplier to the world economy. The major hurdle in gaining stability is the Arab-Israel conflict, economic and social backwardness, the external factor is also major reason like U.S. policy of “dual containment” of Iraq and Iran is seen by the Iran and Iraq as U.S. is serving as a military “protector” of the Gulf states especially Saudi Arabia. “Dual containment” had also resulted into loss of investment in oil and 30 Maulanahad strengthened Azad the Library, radical forces inside Aligarh Iran. The dependenceMuslim on importedUniversity oil had
26 West Asia: An Introduction op. cit., pp.267-268 27 https://www.jodidata.com accessed on 12 May 2018 28 www.thebalance.com accessed on 15 May 2018 29 West Asia: An Introduction op. cit., pp.267-268 30 (PEF large Arand ford edu.studies by AMY JAFFE.) The political, economic social culture and religious trends in the Middle East and the Gulf and their Impact on energy supply security and 137
Chapter -5
made the non-oil producing state to go for nuclear option even stronger. Nuclear options had drawn industrial and developing countries like Japan, the United States, France, Germany, Britain along with Brazil and South Korea. The cost of nuclear power is more or less stabilized while cost of oil rises from time to time. Other than strategic location, the rich reservoir of oil had made this region influential and important in the world.31
Future prospects
The external intervention especially by United States and its allies and Russia as its counter will not easily abate. The time when Middle East is burning and condition is volatile United States is playing active role in the region U.S is supporting Israel, backing Saudi Arabia and Gulf countries and intervening in countries of the region. The rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia is getting grave day by day. It becomes difficult for both Iran and Saudi Arabia to do compromise on Syrian issue of Assad regime’s fate, despite lot of efforts and attempts by the United States as mediator for peace. The United States and its partners were not able to bring peace to the region. Saudi Arabia views Iran as destabilizer and contender for regional influence at all levels but Iran had the good track record of implementing the JCPOA (Joint comprehensive plan of actions). Saudi Arabia still believes that secret nuclear projects of Iran is going on from the ongoing scenarios it looks that Daesh and Nusra front may become weakened but Syria will remain the battle ground for the United States and Russia., Lebanon too looks to get involved again in sectarian violence because of the weak government, presence of extremist groups at authoritative position and by the Iran’s interference in Lebanon. The weak states of Middle East will be the battle ground for the regional and foreign powers while the powerful state will be more stable and such states are – Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey and Egypt.
It is assumed and expected that the oil price may recover and by this gradual recovery of the oil price in future there may be the economic stability in the region as oil is one Maulanaof the major factor Azads behind allLibrary, instability and Aligarhunrest. Muslim University
pricing James A. Maker III Institution for supply, security and Pricing Public policy A Rice University 31 https://www.jstor.org accessed on 20 May 2018 138
Chapter -5
The United States may get more involved and this time for different reason and that is to stabilize the region including by military means. The United States and its allies may deploy more military assets for stabilizing the areas going through war and for the protection of populations from genocide and persecution. However by this the West will face difficulties like military and political costs and expenses, difficulties in cooperation with in the United Nations and there is possibility of direct conflict with other major powers in the war zone such as Russia, Saudi Arabia and Iran.32
United States withdrawal from Middle East
The other possibility in future is increase of great power conflict. The United States may no longer be dependent on Middle Eastern oil and other energy source, U.S has become self sufficient in regard to energy because of improved extraction technology and vast reserve of unconventional gas.
The U.S may become more attracted towards the South China Sea and United States may focus more strongly on that part of the region Russia may be the strong challenge to the European security and hegemony again in the region of Middle East.
Another possibility in future
In future it looks like solving the wars of Middle East by the international community may be unsuccessful effort and tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia is going to continue, Syria will be the battle ground for both Iran and Saudi Arabia and perhaps the direct war between two of the most powerful states in the Middle East is going to happen. The Iran-Saudi war may get over soon or become a prolonged conflict that would make the Persian Gulf difficult to use for years to come. This prolonged war in the region will result into more refugee flows than in 2015 and Europe will become the destination of choice for the mass exodus. There are many countries of Europe where law does not allow refugees or allows limited refugee. The threat of global jihad may increase and there is also the chance of radicalization of European citizen Maulanaand an increased Azad terror Library, threat towards AligarhEurope. Muslim University
Another possible situation can be seen in Middle East and that situation is of stability in the region the peace process led by United States and its allies may bring
32 http://www.foi.se/report-search/PDF uploaded on 2 April 2016 accessed on 22 May 2018 139
Chapter -5
the positive result and Syria, Yemen and Iraq war may come to conclusion, but United States and its allies should have to skip its target of regime change and policy of democratization of the Middle East The relationship between Iran and Saudi Arabia may move towards constructive relation. Now coming to Iraq the government of Iraq with the help of coalition forces will get victory over Daesh or Islamic State. The conflict with Kurds over territorial and economic issue (natural resources) with the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) will get solved. As a result of this stability the economic cooperation in the region will increase along with the high tech education and private firms. Iran may move more towards liberal leadership and its economy which will be less controlled by the state. The military balance between Iran and Saudi Arabia and GCC countries may become helpful for regional stability and peace. Another major issue that had emerged due to war and instability in the region is the refugee problem that had caused major trouble for Europe but by peace and instability the influx may get reduced. For the terrorist organizations like ISIS, al-Nusrah, and other non-state actors the Middle East may no longer be the safe heaven. For the Middle Eastern youth still the democratic change and other international system may be confusing but a soft and cozy option.
Another possibility in future of Middle East is the less involvement of United States in Middle East and U.S. may persue the policy of offshore balancing. United States may call back most its forces present in the region. The major concern will be of reconstruction of the war affected region. The regional power may come forward for establishing stability, peace and economic growth. With less involvement of United States and withdrawal of military forces there may be less threat of terrorist attacks on west. The relation of trade and economy will only be in focus by Middle Eastern countries. For improving relations, Iran may move forward as Iran is interested in confidence building in the Gulf both the states will have to give proof by taking positive steps like with drawing of forces from the Gulf and IRGCs role will get lessened. Maulana Azad Library, Aligarh Muslim University It is the thing concern that there may be the possibility of another Palestinian intifada, which may result into the bloodshed between the Israelis and Palestinians. The unending Israeli-Palestinian conflict will remain.
140
Chapter -5
Possibility of redrawing some of the borders in the Middle East There is high chance of evolution of Iraqi Kurdistan, which will be the merge of some parts of Iran, Syria and Turkey, the region which have significant Kurdish populations or may the Iraqi Kurds remain in Iraq but get more autonomy then they earlier have and also may the chance of division of Syria in between the alawites and other minorities forming an independent country in the western part and the Sunni dominated areas in the east may form another separate state. There be the chance for civil war to go longer as it is seen in history that civil war went for decades like 36 year old Peruvian civil war and the Afghanistan civil war which went for 37 long years.33
End of Nuclear deal
All credit goes to President Obama who despite opposition from Israel and pressure from the Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies had moved forward towards diplomatic path and tried his best to resolve the nuclear tension with Iran. However after Trump came to power he had criticized the deal. Israel had called it a “historical mistake” which will turn Iran into a “terrorist nuclear super power”
There is also the possibility of collapse of Sunni Arab dominance in the region and emergence of new Iranian or Turkish dominance.34 The chance of the formation of new states based on their identities like Kurds, Alawites and on religious bases like Christians and other sects is there and if state is not formed then autonomy is must for them.
Another view is that there will be long struggle for dominance in the region between Arab Sunni and those aspiring to have control, in which the struggle is likely to be won by the ‘Saudi Arabia’. The new Middle East may form and the cooperation of Sunni Arab network for economic and security cooperation, for the potential and governmental stability and longevity. Another Major non-Arab power is Israel which is desiring to build regional strategy on doing alliance with Arab dictators. The other Maulanafuture possibility Azad is Library, the threat for IsraelAligarh by the revival Muslim of Sunni University states. Another scenario that can be possible is the formation of two camps one is the Saudi led Sunni
33 https://www.thecipherbrief.com uploaded on 25 Feb 2016 accessed on 24 May 2018 34 foreignpolicynews.org uploaded on 30 July 2015 accessed on 25 May 2018 141
Chapter -5
coalition and other is the Shia led insurrection mostly with the help of foreign mercenaries from non-Arab regions of Asia and Africa.35
In Middle East the states like Egypt and Tunisia may move forward toward the democracy. The monarchies of the region like Morocco, Jordan and the Gulf cooperation may be less affected by the revolution but in some monarchies the reforms are done in the name of so called “democracies” where the position of king is secured. The emergence of new power in the Middle is possible and that may not be the western but the Asian power ‘China’.36
As we have accessed the studies of experts on Middle East in regards to the future prospects the major possibilities and developments in the region are-
In Middle East with involvement of United States and its allies, the Saudi Arabia and Iran Rivalry may continue and the conflict may escalate by which instability may increase more and more specially by wars in Syria and Yemen which may lead to possibility of more proxy wars in Gulf. There is also the probability of more great power conflict in which two big powers of Middle East Saudi Arabia and Iran will come in direct war with each other in Syria and Yemen. No doubt they will get the backing of the two big powers of world that is United States and Russia. This conflict may create the big problem of refugees in European countries. Another chance is of Middle East without United States, the U.S may be got more involved in the peace process Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Iran and Saudi Arabia will move towards a conclusion for the sake of regional security and stability. The non-state actors and jihadi groups may get weakened by the stability and strong governments. The nuclear development in Iran and owning the nuclear weapons by Israel and Saudi Arabia will lead to balance of power and ultimately to peace. There is the possibility of accepting Israel as it neighbour by Arabs and Israel- MaulanaPalestinian Azad peace is Library,must for the dev elopmentAligarh of region. Muslim This will lead University to the permanent solution for the Arab-Israel conflict.
35 https://mosaicmagazine.com uploaded on 25 July 2016 accessed on 27 May 2018 36 http://carnegieendowment.org accessed on 28 May 2018 142
Chapter -5
There is also the chance of the remodeling the map of Middle East which will be divided on the religious, ideological and ethnic base like Kurds – who are present in Turkey Iran, Iraq and Syria, Alawite (A Shia) dominated region in Syria may come into existence after the division from the main land a Sunni dominated Syria. Christians can go for their autonomous state or more autonomy then they have. The other merge is possible of the left Sunni states from Iraq, Syria and other Middle Eastern country.
As Middle East being largest oil supplier and having most important strategic location the world may rely on this region for oil and gas in future too. There is the probability of involvement of another major growing power of the region that is China. If there is power vacuum in the region created by the withdrawal of United States and little interference of Russia there is the possibility of Chinese involvement. We can see that just one assumption and speculation is not possible. There are many future prospects which are driven according to the development and change in the conditions and circumstances of region which mainly depends on -
- Iran-Saudi Arabia relations. - Role of United States. - The Arab-Israel conflict. - The role of non-state actors and jihadi groups.37
Iran’s nuclear deal and how U.S. had withdrawn from it
The joint comprehensive plan of action which is popularly known as the Iran’s nuclear deal in which Iran and six other countries P5+1 (the U.S, U.K, France, China, Russia and Germany) had reached a land mark agreement. In this Iran accepted to limit its nuclear activities and will allow the international inspectors at their nuclear sites and in return the economic sanctions on Iran will get lifted. The deal limits Iran to install 5,060 centrifuges, earlies there were 20,000 centrifuges at Natanz till 2026 Maulanathat is 15Azad years after Library, the implementation Aligarh of deal. Muslim Iran had shipped University tons of low enriched uranium to Russia according to deal no enriched uranium at Fordo will be permitted till 2031. It also says to convert the underground facility into a nuclear physics and technology centre, and the centrifuges present at the site will produce the
37 https//www.cgpolicy.org/articles/central-asia/ accessed on 31 May 2018 143
Chapter -5
radioisotopes for the use in medicine, agriculture, industry and science which is around 1,044 at Fordo. Iran’s uranium stockpile was reduced by 98% and will not get exceed until 2031 and the stockpile’s level of enrichment will be up to 3.67%. Under the nuclear deal the heavy water nuclear facility at Arak which contains plutonium needed for nuclear bomb were to be dismantled because of the proliferation risk, but Iran agreed to redesign the reactor so that the weapon grade plutonium could not be produced and Iran agreed to send the spent fuel outside the country. Up till 2031 Iran cannot build the heavy water reactors.
In the JCPOA the international atomic energy agency inspectors will monitor Iran’s nuclear sites and check that no fissile material are displaced or hidden for bomb development. Iran had accepted that it will allow the inspectors of IAEA to access all the sites and they can search any site which they consider to be suspicious.
Iran also had agreed not to carry any research which can help in developing the nuclear bomb. Further the deal also stops Iran from arms trade for five years but if IAEA gets satisfied with Iran’s cooperation, it will end. There is also the ban on Iran for buying ballistic missiles for 8 years.
The Trump administration has withdrawn from the deal as the closeness of Trump administration and Israel is known to the world and Israel had always opposed the deal. President Trump had always criticized the deal and had called it “decaying and rotten”, though it was an expected decision as it was President Trump’s election promise to withdraw from deal. The Trump administration had called for re- imposition of strong sanctions.38
This deal came after years of tension over the Iran’s nuclear advancement, however Iran had insisted that its programme is for peaceful purposes. Iran has given various reasons for its nuclear development programme like it is Iran’s legitimate and sovereign right for having and carrying the nuclear technology experiments and Maulanaresearch for its sAzadelf reliance, Library, equality and to Aligarhget respect and nonMuslim-discrimination University from international community as written in Iranian constitution. Iran argues that provoking statements, regional conflicts, foreign interventions and double standard of West39
38 What is the nuclear deal and why Trump want to scrap it? www.theguadian.com 39 Md. Thowhidul Islam. The Logic Behind Iran’s Uncompromising Nuclear Policy- Asia Journal of Global Studies, vol-1, 2012, pp.68-78 144
Chapter -5
that allows Israel nuclear programme which is an “open secret” compels Iran to go for nuclear development for its safety and security.
The remaining parties of the Iran nuclear deal had agreed to keep working to maintain trade with Tehran though U.S. President Donald Trump had withdrew U.S. from deal and had decided to carry out the economic sanctions on Iran.40
Maulana Azad Library, Aligarh Muslim University
40 www.firstpost.com accessed on 31 May 2018 145
Conclusion
Maulana Azad Library, Aligarh Muslim University Conclusion
CONCLUSION
For the development of every state regional peace is must. Middle East is the region which is burning from ages. Middle East or West Asia occupies an important strategic location on the globe as it is a transcontinental region, so there is an easy access to Europe, Asia and Africa. The major religions of the world got originated from here. The major cause behind the instability of the region is the blessings which had become curse, these are strategic location, oil and religion. The Middle East is resource rich as well as it has lines of communication and travelling like Suez Canal, Strait of Hormuz, Turkish Straits and Bab al- Mandeb.
In the 20th century, oil was the centre of foreign policy of almost all states. After the disruption of oil supply during the Suez crisis in 1956, the 1973 the Arab oil embargo, the Iran-Iraq war of 1980, later the two Gulf war in 1990 and 2003, the importance of oil in the world politics became more evident.
Oil is power and Middle East possess half of oil reserves of the world and it is the geographic centre of gravity of world oil industry as the economic conditions totally depend on energy consumption and industry and transportation are the base of economic development. Major oil fields of the region are the Ghawar in Saudi Arabia, and Safaniya, Burgan in Kuwait. Another major oil field is in Iraq that is Rumaila and West Qurna. Along with these Iran, UAE, Abu Dhabi and Oman too have big oil fields. The economy of almost all Middle Eastern countries is run, by revenues coming from oil. Apart from oil, natural Gas too is found in abundance in Middle East and Iran is ranked second in world in natural gas reserves. Economy of Middle East depends on oil.
The study on Middle East is incomplete without the discussion on the instability and its reasons as it is the biggest challenge for Middle East. There are unending lists of the terrorist organizations and groups and Middle East is considered as the heaven for Maulanathese terrorist Azad groups. Library, These non -state Aligarh actors are affecting Muslim the decisions University of the state. The active non-state actors in the region are – ISIS, Al-Qaida, Muslim brotherhood (Egypt), Hezbollah in Lebanon and Palestine and Taliban who are active in Afghanistan and Pakistan. These non-state actors are anti-West and anti-Israel and they had targeted many western countries like United States, Britain, France, Belgium and Kenya. There are informations and intelligence reports that countries like
146 Conclusion
Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, Jordan and Saudi Arabia are supporting these non-state actors by funding them. As Islam is the dominant religion in this region these non- state actors get support and sympathy in the name of Islam.
In the study it was found that the United State and USSR conflict had created the fertile ground for the birth of non-state actors like Al-Qaida which gave tough fight to USSR in Afghanistan and U.S. had supported them to stop the expansion of communism.
The study explores that there are certain factors which had helped in creation of non- state actors in the region, these are the Balfour declaration of 1917 and the creation of Israel, Soviet invasion in Afghanistan, oil and Western control over oil fields and the gulf war etc.
Terrorism, Middle East and Islam now are interconnected United States is accusing Iran for supporting and sponsoring the cross border terrorism and developing the weapons of mass destruction and U.S. has expressed the threat of proliferation specially to the terrorist groups. Middle East is the biggest importer of weapons and the top five arms exporter in the world are, the U.S, Russia, Germany, France and China, they cover 74% of total arms exports. United States is the global leader in the manufacturing of arms, the non-Western countries are spending more and more to protect them by buying arms. The countries which own nuclear weapons are Russia, United States, France, China and United Kingdom along with Pakistan, India, Israel and North Korea. The U.S. and its allies had produced the non-proliferation treaty but India, Israel and Pakistan had not signed, but they do posses the nuclear weapon. Even the countries like Iraq, Iran, North Korea, Libya and Syria are suspected to have the secret nuclear weapon programme. Iran and other Middle Eastern countries like Saudi Arabia have announced to persue the atomic energy programme or have signed the nuclear cooperation agreement. Iran’s nuclear programmme is the biggest issue of Middle Eastern politics. In 2002 the two nuclear sites of Iran were revealed by exiled MaulanaIranian resistance Azad group at Library,Natanz and Ara kAligarh which is threat Muslim not only for WUniversityestern countries specially America but for regional countries like Israel and Saudi Arabia which are the regional enemy of Iran.
Iran is one of the largest Gulf States with the powerful and extensive military buildup Iran and Saudi Arabia’s bitter relations are because of the religious and ideological
147 Conclusion
differences, both the countries also claim to be regional powers. To counter each other in the region they fight proxy wars in Syria and Yemen. They support the militant groups of their ideology like Iran supports Hezbollah while Saudi Arabia supports and funds the Sunni extremist group like Al-Qaida. Iran’s claim over greater and lesser Tunbs and Abu Musa Island along with Bahrain the Shia majority country this had shown the ambition of Iran for its expansion and dominance which had created threat in Saudi Arabia and other regional states. Iran’s possession of nuclear weapon is a big trouble for its neighbouring states like Israel and Saudi Arabia. Israel and Saudi Arabia both had objected and showed fear with nuclear deal of 2015 and had considered Iran’s nuclear development a big threat for the security and peace in the region. However, Iran says that its nuclear technology and advancement is for peaceful purposes.
External interference is not new in Middle East, United States and USSR both desired to have control over Middle East, however after the collapse of communism USSR got weakened.
As United State is too far from Middle East to have direct access to South Asia and to look after Israel, to have control over oil fields and free flow of oil to west and to check Russia, for this United States and its allies need bases. Large number of United States forces are stationed in Middle East in Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Oman and at the port of Haifa in Israel. The U.S. troops are active in Lebanon, Syria, Turkey, Jordan, Yemen and Egypt too. There are reports that U.S. has more than 10,000 bases all over the world in which most of them are in Middle East. According to Pentagon around 54,000 troops are active in Middle East. The recent involvement of Russia in Middle East (in Syria and Yemen) shows that Russia still wants to dominate the region. As we have discussed earlier that Iran wants to dominate the region and to be a powerful state it is speedily working on its nuclear technology development. Akbar Etemad the president of the Atomic Energy MaulanaOrganization Azad of Iran Library,(AEOI) from 1974 Aligarh to 1978 reveale Muslimd that Iran already University carried out nuclear research and education at the University of Tehran. The nuclear non- proliferation treaty came into force on March 5, 1970 and Iran had some contracts with nuclear supplier countries of Europe like Germany, France etc. Later the Bushehr nuclear reactor was destroyed by Israeli bombing and companies like Siemens left the project. The Iran-Iraq war and Iranian revolution had led the ambitious nuclear project
148 Conclusion
of Iran to wait. Later in 1980s during the presidency of Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani the nuclear programme restarted with the help of private firms of Russia, China and Pakistan. Pakistan is also alleged for supporting Iran and providing the uranium enrichment technology through the black market network of Pakistani nuclear scientist A.Q. Khan and by 2003 Iran had developed its own technology for making enriched uranium used in nuclear weapon. Uranium mines too had been discovered at Saghand in Yazd and at Gachin near Bandar Abbas. China is believed to have provided the mining technology to Iran. The centrifuge programme of Iran was started in 1985 at facilities controlled by AEOI in Tehran in which centrifuge parts were supposed to be supplied by illegal network of Abdul Qadir Khan in 1994-95. Iran’s biggest assembly and production plant is located at Isfahan which was assisted and backed by North Korea.
Isfahan region had advance defense industry and the second largest missile plant is located around 175 Km towards east of Tehran near Semnan and is Chinese built plant for production of rockets. China had also helped in building plant near Bandar Abbas which is a naval branch. Iran’s main missile test range is near Shahroud. While telemetry station is supposed to be around 350 km to the East of South Taba along the Mashed Isfahan road. Iran had opted for North Korean No-dong missile which is able to carry nuclear as well as biological missiles and can easily target Gulf states, Turkey and Israel, Russia too had backed Iran in development of Iranian nuclear technology. The Chinese, Russian and North Korean firms were supplying Iran the equipment and models for nuclear advancement. According to CIA Iran got major supply of long range missile technology from Russian and Chinese firms in 1996. United States have reported that Iran had tested the booster engines in 1991 which is capable of driving a missile up to 1500 km. Eiten Ben Eliyahu an Israeli air force commander had reported in 1997 that Iran had tested missile capable of reaching Israel. Iran is working on the clandestine weapons programme, nuclear weapons technology purchases, use of research centers and companies as front organization for nuclear Maulanaweapons research Azad work by Library, its top-secret militaryAligarh command. Muslim Iran claims University that its nuclear project is for peaceful purposes and is for defence. This nuclear programme functions under the guidance of Islamic revolutionary guard corps and ministry of defense and armed forces. According to United States the nuclear development of Iran will help to carry out its aggressive ambitions in Middle East and in Western part of
149 Conclusion
world. Iran is only direct threat for United States and its forces in Middle East and Iran may blackmail other regional and western countries, there is also the possibility that Iran may use chemical and biological weapons. If Iran becomes a Nuclear State, the biggest threat is towards Israel and Saudi Arabia. One of the biggest threats of Iran being nuclear state is of proliferation. Iran may sell the nuclear weapon technology to the terrorist groups or non-state actors. Iran’s ambition is to be the dominant and supreme power of region as once expressed by the Iranian supreme leader Khomeini to the Newsweek in August 2006 that “A Middle East is being shaped now not one led by Americans but by Islamic Republic of Iran. The missiles owned by Iran are – Saumar, Sejjil, Shahab, Emad and Ghadr (variant of Shahab-3) Zolfaqar, Fatah, Shahhabz Shahabz, Khorramshar, Rondar, Ra’ad, Simorgh, Safir and Koksan M 1978. The nuclear sites are located at Bushehr, Natanz, Arak, Isfahan, Gachin, Yazd, Frodo, Parchin, Bonab, Tehran and Saghand, while Bonab, Ramsar and Tehran are research reactors, Saghand, Yazd and Gachin are uranium mines and Arak, Fordo, Natanz, Isfahan and Bushehr are nuclear sites and Parchin is military site.
After the “Arab spring” which had started from Tunisia and had spread all over the region, there were series of protests against government, the people demanded jobs as unemployment was the biggest problem for youth. Aging and corrupt dictatorship was also the major reason behind protests. Social media played vital role in the revolution. If we go through the current condition of middle there is the possibility that United States may withdraw itself from region and the terrorist groups like ISIS or Daesh which may become week and Al-Qaida may come to an end and by their fall, stability and peace in the region is possible. There is also the possibility of formation of new states on the basis of ideology, sects and religion. Uprising and call for democracy is also possible in the authoritative countries like Saudi Arabia. The direct war between Saudi Arabia and Iran is also possible. Iran and United States come into agreement in 2015 which was challenged by Trump administration, which eventually withdrew from the Iranian nuclear deal. Maulana Azad Library, Aligarh Muslim University Findings: The research has found that the major cause of foreign intervention in Middle East is the economic one as Middle East is the largest producer of oil and natural gas which is life for the economic growth. The other major reason is to have access to the South Asia and to monitor China and Russia. Protection of Israel is also an important factor behind United States involvement in the region. Its strategic
150 Conclusion
location makes it more important as the shortest pass that connects Europe and Asia lies here. Middle East has become haven and fertile ground for terrorists and almost all terrorist organizations and non-state actors are active here. In the study I have found that the western interference, creation of Israel and its external support (as the people of Middle East believe that it is their land occupied by Jews), oil production and export by and to the foreign countries have created the sense of insecurity in the people of Middle East. Other than that Islam which is the most followed religion of the region connects the terrorist organizations which are fighting in the name of Islam and Jihad and these terrorist organizations get sympathy and support from the local people.
Iran is working speedily on its nuclear development technologies which it claims to be for peaceful purposes and for defence only. In recent times Iran had unveiled the ballistic missile called Khorramshahr missile which has the range of 1,250 miles around 2000 kilometers and can carry multiple war heads. It can easily reach to Israel and Saudi Arabia.
The states like Saudi Arabia, Iran and Pakistan are funding and supporting the terrorist organization on the ideological basis like Saudi Arabia is alleged to support the Al-Qaida (the Sunni extremist terrorist group while Iran supports Hezbollah the pro-Iran Shia extremist group which originated from Lebanon). The study reveals that states too are involved in sponsoring and supporting the terrorist groups. The production and testing of weapons of mass destruction by one state makes other state to do the same and it leads to arms race. Middle East is one of the biggest importers of arms. The countries of the region are spending more and more money to buy arms and ammunitions. The nuclear programme of Iran was initiated with the help of United States as it was President Dwight D. Eisenhower who forwarded the “Atoms for peace” programme with other European countries to help and assist the poor countries for nuclear advancement for civilian cause.
MaulanaAlmost every countryAzad of MiddleLibrary, East has demandedAligarh to have Muslim nuclear weap Universityons and have tried to restart their nuclear programme. The research has found the reasons behind instability in the region are arms race, the strategic importance of Middle East, Iranian nuclear advancement and its threat towards the West and Israel along with neighbouring countries.
151 Conclusion
Suggestions: The research suggests that more studies are required in this field so that the solution for peace and reasons behind the conflicts can come out. Basic study is also needed to reach and read the minds of the people. A peaceful and stable country can only be possible if there is peace and stability and good relations among the neighbouring countries. Further study is needed for understanding and searching out the causes for regional conflicts as a good treatment is only possible by good diagnosis. Lack of educational facility and poverty are the major causes of unrest which forces youth to take the path of terrorism. So the government should provide special attention to youths and give them easy access to education and employment. A special suggestion to the religious and political leaders is to spread the true Islamic teachings which insist on peace and harmony, not violence. The state leaders should go for negotiations and talks which will lessen the distrust and hatred and achievement of peace will be much easier. The states of Middle East should stop giving safe shelter to terrorist groups and funding and sponsoring them as they are more a parasite which will eventually harm the state which backed them.
Maulana Azad Library, Aligarh Muslim University
152
Bibliography
Maulana Azad Library, Aligarh Muslim University Bibliography
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Books
1. West Asia: An Introduction- Centre of West Asian Studies Aligarh Muslim University- 1994.
2. Jafaredah, Ali Raza. Iran the Threat: President Ahmadinejad and the Coming Nuclear Crisis, Published by Palgrave Macmillan- 2007.
3. Ansari, M. Hamid. Iran Today: Twenty five Years After the Islamic Revolution, Published by Rupa Co.- 2005.
4. Salman, Faisal bin. Iran, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Power Politics in Transition, Published by I.B. Tauris- 2003.
5. Hunter, Shireen T. Iran Divided: The Historical Roots of Iranian Debates on Identity, Culture and Governance in the Twenty-First Century, Rowman and Littlefield Publishers-2014.
6. Abi-Aad, Naji and Grenon, Michel. Instability and conflict in Middle East: People, Petroleum and Security Threat, Palgrave Macmillan Publishers- 1997.
7. Jacobs, Metthew. F. Imagining the Middle East: The Building of an Amercian Foreign Policy 1918- 1967, Publisher the Univeristy of North Carolina press- 2011.
8. Hoskin, Halbord L. Contemporary Middle East in Its World Setting, The Macmillan Company New York- 1954.
9. Alam, Anwar. Contemporary West Asia: Politics and Development, New Century Publications-2010.
10. Cordesman, Anthony H. Iran’s Military Force in Transition: Conventional MaulanaThreats Azad and WeaponsLibrary, of Mass AligarhDestruction, Published Muslim by Praeger University-1999.
11. Venter, Al. J. Iran’s Nuclear Option: Tehran’s Quest for Atom Bomb, Published by Casemate- 2005.
153
Bibliography
12. Mossavar-Rahmani, Bijan. Energy Policy in Iran: Domestic Choices and International Implications, Published by Pergamon-2013.
13. Israeli, Raphael. War, Peace and Terror in the Middle East, Published by Routledge- 2003
14. Schwedler, Jillian. Understanding the Contemporary Middle East, Published by Lynne Rienner- 2013.
15. Landen, Robert G. The Emergence of Modern Middle East: Selected Reading, Van Nostrand Publishers-1970
16. Bill, James A. and Leiden, Carl. Middle East: Politics and Power, Published by Allyn and Bacon-1974
17. Cameron, George G. History of Early Iran, University of Chicago Press-1976
18. Bhatia, Shyam. Nuclear Rivals in the Middle East, Published by Routledge- 2017.
19. Allison, Graham. Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catasrophe, Published by Holt Paperbacks- 2005.
20. Buchta, Wilfried. Who Rules Iran? The Structure of Power in the Islamic Republic, Published by Washington Institute for Near East Policy- 2002.
21. Fuller, Graham. The Centre of the Universe: The Geopolitics of Iran, Published by Westview Press- 1991.
22. , Timmerman, Kenneth R. Weapons of Mass destruction: The Cases of Iran, Syria and Libya, Published by Simon Wiesenthal Center- 1992.
23. Katouzian, Homa. Iran: Politics, History and Literature, Published by Routledge- 2013.
Maulana24. Fischer , AzadMichael M. Library, J. Iran: From Religious Aligarh Dispute toMuslim Revolution, Published University by University of Wisconsin Press-2003.
25. Dewan, Berindranath. War and Peace in West Asia, Topical Publications- 1969
154
Bibliography
26. Knudsen, Are and Ezbidi, Basem. Popular Protest in the new Middle East: Islamism and Post-Islamist Politics, Published by I.B. Tauris- 2014.
27. Binzafran, Duaa. The Effect of Non-State Actors on Middle East Politics – A Thesis Presented to Faculty of California State University Chicago- 2016.
28. Kreiger, Barbara. The Dead Sea and the Jordan River, Published by Indiana University Press- 2016.
29. Aghaie, Kamran Scot and Marashi, Afshin. Rethinking Iranian Nationalism and Modernity, Published by University of Texas Press- 2014
30. Munson, Henry. Islam and Revolution in the Middle East, Published by Yale University Press- 1988
31. Davis, Lynn E. etc. Iran’s Nuclear Future: Critical U.S. Policy Choices, Published by RAND Corporation- 2011
32. Kaye, Dalia Dassa. etc. Israel and Iran: A Dangerous Rivalry, Published by RAND Corporation- 2011
33. Oualaalou, David. Volatile State: Iran in the Nuclear Age, Published by: Indiana University Press- 2018.
34. Warnaar, Maaike etc. Iran's Relations with the Arab States of the Gulf: Common Interests over Historic Rivalry, Published by Gerlach Press- 2016.
35. Mirsepassi, Ali. Democracy in Modern Iran: Islam, Culture, and Political Change, Published by NYU Press- 2010.
36. Keddie, Nikki R. Modern Iran: Roots and Results of Revolution, Published by Yale University Press- 2006.
37. Gupta, Ranjit etc. A New Gulf Security Architecture: Prospects and MaulanaChallenges Azad for Library, an Asian Role , AligarhPublished by Gerlach Muslim Press- 2014 University.
38. Reardon, Robert J. Containing Iran: Strategies for Addressing the Iranian Nuclear Challenge, Published by RAND Corporation- 2012.
155
Bibliography
39. Miller, Nicholas L. Stopping the Bomb: The Sources and Effectiveness of US Non-proliferation Policy, Published by Cornell University Press- 2018.
40. Kozhanov, Nikolay. Iran’s Strategic Thinking: The Evolution of Iran’s Foreign Policy, 1979-2018, Published by Gerlach Press- 2018.
41. Nye, Joseph S. etc. The Arab Revolutions and American Policy, Published by Aspen Institute-2013.
42. Benjamin, Medea. Inside Iran: The Real History and Politics of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Published by OR Books- 2018.
43. Keddie, Nikki R. and Gasiorowski, Mark J. Neither East nor West: Iran, the Soviet Union, and the United States, Published by Yale University Press- 1990.
44. Fields, Jeffrey R. State Behavior and the Nuclear Non-proliferation Regime, Published by University of Georgia Press- 2014
45. Boroujerdi, Mehrzad and Rahimkhani, Kourosh. Post-revolutionary Iran: A Political Handbook, Published by Syracuse University Press- 2018.
46. Rosenfeld, Alvin H. Resurgent Antisemitism: Global Perspectives, Published by Indiana University Press- 2013.
47. Wehrey, Frederic etc. Dangerous But Not Omnipotent: Exploring the Reach and Limitations of Iranian Power in the Middle East, Published by RAND Corporation- 2009.
48. Collier, David R. Democracy and the Nature of American Influence in Iran, 1941-1979, Published by Syracuse University Press- 2017.
49. Parsi, Trita. A Single Roll of the Dice: Obama's Diplomacy with Iran, Published by Yale University Press- 2012. Maulana Azad Library, Aligarh Muslim University 50. Mousavian, Seyed Hossein. The Iranian Nuclear Crisis: A Memoir, Published by Carnegie Endowment for International- 2012.
51. Yildiz, Kerim and Taysi, Tanyel B.. The Kurds in Iran: The Past, Present and Future, Published by Pluto Press- 2007.
156
Bibliography
52. Bill, James A. The Eagle and the Lion: The Tragedy of American-Iranian Relations, Published by Yale University Press- 1988.
53. Malm, Andreas and Esmailian, Shora. Iran on the Brink: Rising Workers and Threats of War, Published by Pluto Press- 2007.
54. Green, Jerrold D. etc. Understanding Iran, Published by RAND Corporation- 2009.
55. Bernstein, Jeremy. Nuclear Iran, Published by Harvard University Press- 2014.
56. Katouzian, Homa. The Persians: Ancient, Mediaeval and Modern Iran, Published by Yale University Press- 2009.
57. Ramazani, R. K. Independence without Freedom: Iran's Foreign Policy, Published by University of Virginia Press- 2013.
58. Fowler, Randall. More Than a Doctrine: The Eisenhower Era in the Middle East, Published by Potomac Books, University of Nebraska Press- 2018.
59. Zonis, Marvin. Political Elite of Iran, Published by Princeton University Press- 1971.
60. McAlister, Melani. Epic Encounters: Culture, Media, and U.S. Interests in the Middle East since1945, Updated Edition, with a Post-9/11 Chapter, Published by University of California Press- 2005.
61. McHugo, John. A Concise History of Sunnis and Shi'is, Published by Georgetown University Press- 2017.
62. Jervis, Robert etc. Chaos in the Liberal Order: The Trump Presidency and International Politics in the Twenty-First Century, Published by Columbia University Press- 2018. Maulana Azad Library, Aligarh Muslim University 63. Müller, Harald and Wunderlich, Carmen. Norm Dynamics in Multilateral Arms Control: Interests, Conflicts, and Justice, Published by University of Georgia Press- 2013.
157
Bibliography
64. Hart, Jason. Years of Conflict: Adolescence, Political Violence and Displacement, Published by Berghahn Books- 2010.
65. Farzaneh, Mateo Mohammad. The Iranian Constitutional Revolution and the Clerical Leadership of Khurasani, Published by Syracuse University Press- 2015.
66. Hench, John B. Books As Weapons: Propaganda, Publishing, and the Battle for Global Markets in the Era of World War II, Published by Cornell University Press- 2010.
67. Roches, David B. Des and Thafer, Dania. The Arms Trade, Military Services and the Security Market in the Gulf States: Trends and Implications, Published by Gerlach Press- 2016.
68. Foran, John. A Century of Revolution: Social Movements in Iran, Published by University of Minnesota Press- 1994.
69. Nader, Alireza etc. The Next Supreme Leader: Succession in the Islamic Republic of Iran, Published by RAND Corporation- 2011.
70. Walt, Stephen M.. Revolution and War, Published by Cornell University Press- 1996.
71. Hook, Steven W. and Niblock, Tim. The United States and the Gulf: Shifting Pressures, Strategies and Alignments, Published by Gerlach Press- 2015.
72. Byman, Daniel etc. Iran's Security Policy in the Post-Revolutionary Era, Published by RAND Corporation- 2001.
73. Ward, Steven R. Immortal, Updated Edition: A Military History of Iran and Its Armed Forces, Published by: Georgetown University Press- 2014.
74. Murat, Tezcur Gunes. Muslim Reformers in Iran and Turkey, Published Maulanaby University Azad of Texas Library, Press- 2010. Aligarh Muslim University
75. Afkhami, Gholam Reza. The Life and Times of the Shah, Published by: University of California Press- 2009.
158
Bibliography
76. Bunn, George and Chyba, Christopher F. United States Nuclear Weapons Policy: Confronting Today's Threats, Published by Center for International Security and Cooperation, Brookings Institution Press- 2006.
77. Karpin, Michael. The Bomb in the Basement, Published by Simon and Schuster- 2007.
78. Rezaei, Farhad. Iran’s Nuclear Program: A Study in Proliferation and Rollback, Springer International Publishing- 2017.
79. Iran’s Nuclear Program: Realities and Repercussions, Published by Emirates Center for Strategic Studies and Research- 2007.
80. Chubin, Shahram. Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions, Published by Carnegie Endowment for International Peace- 2006.
81. Gaietta, Michele. The Trajectory of Iran’s Nuclear Program, Published by Palgrave Macmillan- 2016.
82. Porter, Gareth. Manufactured Crisis: The Untold Story of Iran Nuclear Scare, Published by Just World Books- 2014.
83. Adebahr, Cornelius. Europe and Iran: The Nuclear Deal and Beyond, Published by Routledge- 2017.
84. Wells, Mike and Firdowsi, Farsheed. Blind Scorpion: Iran’s Nuclear Sting, Dan Brown Publishing Company- 2015.
85. Onderco, Michal. Iran’s Nuclear Program and the Global South, Published by Palgrave Macmillan- 2015.
86. Khan, Saira. Iran and Nuclear Weapons: Protracted Conflict and Proliferation, Published by Routledge- 2009.
Maulana87. Dareini Azad, Ali Akbar.Library, Legitimate Aligarh Deterrence: A ThrillingMuslim Story of University Iran’s Nuclear Program, Published by Ali Akbar Dareini- 2017.
159
Bibliography
JOURNALS
1. The Arab Studies Journal, Published by: Arab Studies Institute
2. Anatolian Studies, Published by: British Institute at Ankara
3. Arab Studies Quarterly, Published by: Pluto Journals
4. British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies, Published by: Taylor & Francis, Ltd.
5. Bulletin (British Society for Middle Eastern Studies), Published by: Taylor & Francis, Ltd.
6. Bulletin of the American School of Oriental Research in Jerusalem, Published by: The American Schools of Oriental Research
7. Bustan: The Middle East Book Review, Published by: Penn State University Press
8. Indo-Iranian Journal, Published by: Brill
9. International Journal of Middle East Studies, Published by: Cambridge University Press
10. Iran, Published by: Taylor & Francis, Ltd.
11. Iran & the Caucasus, Published by: Brill
12. Iranian Studies, Published by: Taylor & Francis, Ltd. on behalf of International Society of Iranian Studies
13. Journal of Palestine Studies, Published by: University of California Press on behalf of the Institute for Palestine Studies
14. Iraq, Published by: British Institute for the Study of Iraq Maulana Azad Library, Aligarh Muslim University 15. Middle East Journal, Published by: Middle East Institute
16. Middle East Report, Published by: Middle East Research and Information Project, Inc. (MERIP)
160
Bibliography
17. Middle Eastern Studies, Published by: Taylor & Francis, Ltd.
18. Pakistan Forum, Published by: Middle East Research and Information Project, Inc. (MERIP)
19. Review of Middle East Studies, Published by: Middle East Studies Association of North America (MESA)
20. Middle East Studies Association Bulletin, Published by: Middle East Studies Association of North America (MESA)
21. Asia Journal of Global Studies, Published by: Brown Walker Press
Websites
www.nti.org
www.nationsonline.com
www.theguardian.com
www.levantministries.com
www.britannica.com
www.worldencyclopedia.org
www.worldatlas.com
www.iranchamber.com
www.bloomberg.com
www.armscontrol.org Maulanawww.jewishvirtuallibrary.org Azad Library, Aligarh Muslim University www.iranwatch.org
www.presstv.com
www.whitehouse.govt
161
Bibliography
www.washingtonpost.com
www.globalsecurity.org
www.azernews.az
E-Newspapers
www.timesofindia.com
www.dawn.com
www.tehrantimes.com
www.iran-daily.com
www.bbc.com
www.aljazeera.com
www.w3newspapers.com/iran/
www.irna.ir/en/
https://ifpnews.com
www.parstoday.com/en
www.nytimes.com
Maulana Azad Library, Aligarh Muslim University
162