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Haiti: Nearthquake, Haiti Is Still in Turmoil

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Haiti: Nearthquake, Haiti Is Still in Turmoil Volume XXXV • Number 3 January 2011 An invited comment by Louise K. Comfort early a year after its cata- strophic January 12, 2010, Haiti: Nearthquake, Haiti is still in turmoil. Debris clogs the streets. Shattered buildings block recon- struction. Twenty-four tent cities From still house an estimated 1.6 million Disaster to people, all waiting to rebuild their lives. Development One An outbreak of cholera has strained the already burdened health infrastructure, further im- periling a vulnerable population. A Year contested presidential election chal- lenges the governing capacity of the fragile nation. Much of the $5.3 After billion in international assistance has not been spent because of a lack of coherent plans and leadership to translate aid into action. Why—even with significant government and nongovernmental planning, substantial funds, and the obvious needs of a severely damaged environment—has the rebuilding process stalled in Haiti? to widespread poverty, illiteracy, and failing infrastructure. Economic and social conditions have declined steadily in The Haitian disaster context the past 50 years. The inability to move forward in Haiti is an organi- The resulting dysfunction has produced a set of condi- zational and policy conundrum. It defies the international tions that placed Haiti 145th out of 169 nations ranked on disaster assistance structure developed over more than 50 the United Nations’ index of human development (UNDP years in the international aid community. Several factors 2010). As a result, there was little capacity in Haiti that in- contribute to this situation. ternational organizations could connect to when mobilizing First, the catastrophic damage to the capital, Port-au- response. Prince—the political, economic, and cultural center of the Second, the international machinery that has evolved country—was a direct result of conditions that existed to assist nations after disasters operates on a set of assump- before the earthquake. Before the quake, Haiti seemed ig- tions that don’t fit the Haitian context. The UN Organization norant of its seismic risk. The nation undertook no prepara- for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs is designed to tions for the hazard, even though the island is located on deal with nations with at least some functioning governing the edge of the active Caribbean plate. Unstable and corrupt capacity to provide local knowledge, contacts, and commu- governments over the last two generations have contributed (Please see “Haiti,” page thirteen.) INSIDE ... What to expect from Seventy-two hours of Communicating hazard Why racial profiling won’t Washington in 2011 supplies—where’d that science stop terrorists come from? Page 14 Page 9 Page 10 Page 2 Remember when flying was glamorous? ‘My junk,’ racial profiling, and random searches he recent kerfuffle would be required for those refusing the scanner. The pro- Wait until they Tover pat-downs at air- test brought predictable counter protests. William Saletan port security highlighted at Slate (www.slate.com/id/2275681/) called it “idiocy … Ig- hear about the national dissatisfaction nore these imbeciles,” he wrote. “If you opt out of the scan, brain scan! with long lines and intru- you’ll get a pat-down instead. You’ll trade a fast, invisible, sive searches. It may also intangible, privacy-protected machine inspection for an un- demonstrate some vague pleasant, extended grope.” discomfort with the growth of Big Brother government. The scanners are intended, in large part, to detect the But the fact that this controversy developed shortly after explosive PETN, which has been a staple of terrorist bomb two suspicious package bombs were found aboard flights makers, according to the Los Angeles Times (www.latimes. bound for Chicago emphasizes the real and complex prob- com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-petn-20101124,0,3675872. lem faced by security planners. story). PETN was the material found in the package bombs Software engineer John Tyner became a mini-hero in sent via cargo planes to Chicago on October 28, apparently some circles—and a pariah in others—when prior to board- intended to bring down those airplanes. ing a flight, he told Transportation Security Administration A Zogby International poll found 61 percent of “likely screeners, “If you touch my junk, I’ll have you arrested!” voters” oppose TSA body scanners and body pat-downs New pat-down procedures were introduced by TSA (www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.cfm?ID=1925). right before the busy Thanksgiving holidays, triggering ”It’s clear the majority of Americans are not happy some activists to call for a “National Opt-Out Day”(www. with TSA and the enhanced security measures recently optoutday.com/) on November 24 for full-body scanners, enacted,” Zogby said. “The airlines should not be happy which would mean a physical inspection—a “pat-down”— with 42 percent of frequent fliers seeking a different mode 2 Natural Hazards Observer • January 2011 of transportation due to these enhancements. It seems the airlines and TSA need to come together to find a solution before the American flying public abandons both.” Yes, but what do you really But in a dueling conclusion, a joint ABC News and think, Dave? Washington Post poll released the day before Thanksgiving found that 64 percent of the population—not just “likely “Let’s state this directly: John Tyner, the software voters”—supported the use of body-scanning machines, engineer who refused to be patted down before while 32 percent opposed them. Fifty percent said hand boarding a flight in San Diego, is no hero—he is a searches were over the top. A roughly equal number said selfish idiot who clearly cared nothing for the lives hand searches were okay to “prevent terrorism.” or safety of the other passengers and crew on the The uproar renewed calls for alternatives to the cur- plane he was about to board.” rent system, including some form of profiling to weed out potential terrorists. —David Silverberg, writing for HS Today. On the racial profiling front, at least, the arithmetic doesn’t work. William Press of the University of Texas at Press applied statistical methodology comparing profil- Austin says that as well as being politically and ethically ing to random statistical sampling of passengers. He found questionable, racial profiling does no better in helping law that profiling was no more effective in identifying terrorists enforcement officials in their task of catching terrorists than than random searches. Indeed, he found that paradoxically, standard uniform random sampling techniques—that is, “strong profiling”—picking out, say, young Muslim males picking people out of line at random and subjecting them traveling alone—was less likely to catch terrorists. to extra screening. This is the topic of a paper in Significance, “The aggregate effect of [focusing on] such innocent, the magazine of the Royal Statistical Society and the Amer- but high profile, individuals is, on average, to draw enforce- ican Statistical Association (doi.wiley.com/10.1111/j.1740- ment resources away from the actual terrorist, so that fewer 9713.2010.00452.x). actual terrorists are caught,” he writes. He concludes, “If there is any general advice that we ‘ can give to policy makers, or to our colleagues in law en- Twas the season forcement, it would seem to be this: no strategy of using ra- After ignoring the Transportation Security cial (or any actuarial) profiles is likely, in practice, to be sub- Administration for nearly a year, the mainstream stantially more effective at catching terrorists than uniform media turned on the agency with a vengeance random sampling of the population that can be screened. over the holidays, according to The Project for Many such strategies, especially those with strong profil- Excellence in Journalism. ing, will be less effective than uniform random sampling.” During the week prior to Thanksgiving, TSA But if physical pat-downs are inspiring waves of pro- generated 6.3 percent of the coverage in the news test, we hesitate to imagine what might happen if a tech- media (www.journalism.org/node/23082), vaulting them nique now being developed at Northwestern University is to a total of 2.6 percent for November of 2010. perfected. Researchers were able to “correlate P300 brain They got a minuscule .003 percent of the news waves to guilty knowledge with 100 percent accuracy in the hole in July. The surge in interest was inspired by the lab,” when they knew specifics of the make-believe planned tempest-in-a-teapot over pat-down searches versus attacks in advance, according to a Northwestern news re- full body scanning, even while planned protests lease. and airport slowdowns urged by some groups failed So it seems old-fashioned intelligence work, combined to materialize. with mind-reading, may be able to identify terrorists. “For that week (November 15-21), when The most intriguing part of the study is its real-world passenger John Tyner’s response to more invasive implications, says psychology professor J. Peter Rosenfeld. airport searches seemed to strike a chord, attention Even when the researchers had no advance details about to airport security filled 6.3 percent of the news mock terrorism plans, the technology was still accurate in hole, its highest level of coverage since PEJ identifying critical concealed information. began tracking that topic in November 2007,” the “Without any prior knowledge of the planned crime journalism watchdog group wrote on its web site. in our mock terrorism scenarios, we were able to identify “In the past three years there has been only 10 out of 12 terrorists and, among them, 20 out of 30 crime- one other time that airport security made significant related details,” Rosenfeld said. “The test was 83 percent news. Following the failed Christmas Day airplane accurate in predicting concealed knowledge, suggesting bomb plot, calls for increased airport security— that our complex protocol could identify future terrorist including demands for more use of full body activity.” scanners—filled 5.2 percent of the news hole from We can hardly wait to hear what the “likely voters” December 28, 2009-January 3, 2010.” have to say about that.
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