NATURAL DISASTER MITIGATION in '~~Y'h";;'L"P,~~IFICISLAND COUNTRIES '" ','" \ " A POLICY GUIDE FOR PLANNERS AND DECISION-MAKERS Prepared by: Michael P. Hamnett for: The South Pacific Disaster Reduction Programme (RAS/92/3 60) ii I FOREWORD The 1990s have been designated by the United Nations General Assembly as the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR). Already, during this decade, disaster losses in the Pacific Islands have reached unprecedented levels. Tropical cyclones, droughts, floods, erosion, landslides, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions have disrupted the lives of over 300,000 Pacific Islanders and the social and economic development of many of the countries in the region. Moreover, as populations grow and social and economic development continues, losses will increase in the future unless successful disaster mitigation programmes are developed and implemented. The international community, including the island nations in the Pacific, made a commitment to sustainable development at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, and the UN Conference on Sustainable Development in Small Island Developing States. For Pacific Island countries, efforts aimed at achieving the goal of sustainable development are undermined by the natural hazards which affect the region. Therefore, if sustainable development is to be achieved, island countries and their international partners will have to take up the challenge of the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction. That challenge includes having in place by the year 2,000: • Comprehensive national assessments of risks from natural hazards, with these assessments taken into account in development plans. • Mitigation plans at the national level and/or local levels, involving long-term prevention, preparedness and community awareness. • Ready access to global, regional, national and local warning systems, and broad dissemination ofwamings. This policy guide is provided to help Pacific Island countries design mitigation measures and implement them at the national and local levels. It draws upon a wide-range of knowledge about the steps that governments, private sector organisations, and individuals can take to reduce the impact of natural hazards on Pacific Island countries. Much of this knowledge has developed from the experience of Pacific Island governments, private firms, regional and non-governmental organisations. It is put in the context of the social, economic and political realities in which disaster mitigation must be assigned its proper place. This policy guide provides an assessment of the hazards that affect the region and a variety of options for developing mitigation programmes to achieve the IDNDR goals at the local, national, and regional levels. It builds on the common Pacific Islands' strategy developed for the World Conference on Natural Disaster Reduction held in Yokohama, Japan in May 1994. This initiative became part of the global strategy arising from this conference and was subsequently adopted by the UN General Assembly. Through the implementation of mitigation activities suggested in this policy guide and other activities developed in the region to mitigate natural disasters, Pacific Island countries can move rapidly towards achieving the goal of sustainable development. iii The Department of Humanitarian Affairs' South Pacific Programme Office (DHA-SPPO) will provide, wherever, possible, technical assistance and funds to support mitigation activities to help achieve the goals of the International Decade of Natural Disaster Reduction. DHA-SPPO will work closely with bilateral and multilateral donors, NGOs and other regional organisations to ensure the success of disaster reduction programmes. /~~4 Yasushi Akashi Under-Secretary-General UN Department of Humanitarian Affairs iv CONTENTS FOREWORD iii CONTENTS .•.•.•..•.•.••....•.•.•.•.•.•.•..............•.........•.........•.•........•.....•...•.•.•.•..........•......•.• v LIST OF MAPS vi PREFACE vii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ix ABSTRACT xi INTRODUCTION 1 DISASTER MITIGATION 3 WHAT IS DISASTER MITIGATION? 3 WHY IS DISASTER MITIGATION A DEVELOPMENT ISSUE AND POLICY ISSUE? 3 WHAT ARE THE COSTS AND BENEFITS OF DISASTER MITIGATION? 5 WHY MUST DISASTER MITIGATION BE A POLICY INITIATIVE? 7 ASSESSING THE HAZARDS AND THE RiSKS 9 WHAT ARE THE RISKS OF LOSSES FROM FUTURE DISASTERS? 9 WHAT ARE THEHAZARDS? 9 WHAT SPECIFIC AREAS WITHIN PACIFIC COUNTRIES ARE AT RISK? 24 WHICH SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC SECTORS ARE MOST AFFECTED? '" 30 SUCCESSFUL DISASTER MITIGATION 35 WHAT APPROACHES TO PLANNING AND CO-ORDINATION CAN MAKE MITIGATION PROGRAMMES SUCCESSFUL? 35 WHAT STRATEGIES CAN MAKE MITIGATION PROGRAMMES SUCCESSFUL? 36 DISASTER MITIGATION FROM A POLICY MAKER'S PERSPECTIVE 43 REFERENCES CITED OR CONSULTED 45 v LIST OF MAPS Figure Ia: Tropical Cyclones in the North Pacific (>= 65 knots) 12 Figure lb: Tropical Cyclones in the North Pacific (>= 110 knots) 13 Figure Ic: Tropical Cyclones in the South Pacific (>= 65 knots) 14 Figure Id: Tropical Cyclones in the South Pacific (>= 110 knots) 15 Figure 2: Intensity and Duration of 10-Year Droughts at Selected Locations 16 Figure 3: Zones with Risk of Destructive Earthquake Activity 19 Figure 4: Historical Incidence of Tsunami Events in the Pacific Region 20 Figure Sa: Volcanic Activity in the North Pacific 21 Figure 5b: Volcanic Activity in the South Pacific 22 Figure 6: Earthquake Epicentres in Fiji. 24 Figure 7: Flood and Landslide Hazard, Guadalcanal, Solomon Islands 25 Figure 8: Primary and Secondary Landslide Hazard Zones, Markham Valley, Papua New Guinea 27 Figure 9: Volcanic Hazard Map, Aoba Island, Vanuatu 28 vi PREFACE The reduction of losses caused as a result of natural disasters, is a major objective of disaster management programmes, and one which has attracted the support of the United Nations General Assembly, with the 1990's being designated the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR). Given the high frequency of occurrence, and range of hazards which have the potential to cause devastation upon the fragile environment and economies of island nations, the IDNDR is a concept also amenable to countries of the South Pacific Region. History has recorded the many incidents of devastation brought about by disasters, and in particular their impacts on economic stability and development programmes of afflicted Pacific Island Countries. Sadly, little has been learned from these disasters, with many Pacific islands still focusing efforts on re- active post-impact relief and rehabilitation. Whilst the hazards in themselves may be identified as "acts of god", the action that is needed, and that can be taken to minimise their impacts, reduce damage, and protect the livelihood of communities, must clearly be "acts of man". It has been repeatedly demonstrated that disaster mitigation strategies such as hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment, implementation of disaster resistant building codes, flood control and proper land-use practises, have positive implications on socio-economic developments. Further, the processes associated with disaster mitigation ale usually long term activities which generates very high interaction with many sectors involved with national development planning. In this respect, the knowledge and understanding of disaster management, and benefits that pro-active mitigation strategies can bring, are increased within the policy and development levels of government. In its preparation, this publication has drawn on the experiences of Pacific region and international experts, and discusses issues related to the major hazards of the region, namely, cyclones, earthquakes, floods, drought, volcanic eruptions and landslides. It serves as an easy to read policy guide for planners and decision makers and provides a better understanding of the nature and extent of risks and it gives guidance on the various ways and means of reducing such risk. It is a credible source of reference for establishing the linkages and causal effects between the application of disaster mitigation initiatives, and return on investment in respect to sustainable social and economic development. It is hoped that this SPDRP initiative, which is provided in response to the stated needs of Pacific Island Countries, will be positively adopted, and that there will be specific disaster mitigation policies incorporated with development programmes, that will lead to a significant reduction in the loss of life and property arising from natural disasters. Join us in our efforts to identify and implement disaster mitigation strategies, which aim to reduce the impact of the many hazards which often affect our small Pacific island nations with devastating results. ~ ~ - Dr S. Langi Kavaliku Deputy Prime Minister Kingdom of Tonga (South Pacific Region Representative IDNDR Scientific and Technical Committee) vii viii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Many people have assisted with the development of this policy guide, which while, written between April 1995 and December of 1995, has been effectivelyunder development since 1981. They include all of those in the Pacific Islands and other parts of the world who have devoted their time and talent to reducing the impact of natural hazards, They also include those who have provided direct support and ideas for the writing of this policy guide: Joseph Chung, Atu Kaloumaira, Ian Rector, Joanne Burke and the staff of the South Pacific Programme Office of the UN Department of Humanitarian Affairs, the UN agency that is implementing