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Myanmar's Ethnic Insurgents Myanmar’s Ethnic Insurgents: UWSA, KNU and KIO Christopher O’Hara & Niels Selling ASIA PAPER February 2012 Myanmar’s Ethnic Insurgents: UWSA, KNU and KIO Christopher O’Hara & Niels Selling Institute for Security and Development Policy Västra Finnbodavägen 2, 131 30 Stockholm-Nacka, Sweden www.isdp.eu Myanmar’s Ethnic Insurgents: UWSA, KNU and KIO is an Asia Paper published by the Institute for Security and Development Policy. The Asia Papers Series is the Occasional Paper series of the Institute’s Asia Program, and addresses topical and timely subjects. The Institute is based in Stockholm, Sweden, and cooperates closely with research cent- ers worldwide. Through its Silk Road Studies Program, the Institute runs a joint Trans- atlantic Research and Policy Center with the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute of Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies. The Institute is firmly established as a leading research and policy center, serving a large and diverse com- munity of analysts, scholars, policy-watchers, business leaders, and journalists. It is at the forefront of research on issues of conflict, security, and development. Through its applied research, publications, research cooperation, public lectures, and seminars, it functions as a focal point for academic, policy, and public discussion. The opinions and conclusions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Institute for Security and Development Policy or its sponsors. © Institute for Security and Development Policy, 2012 ISBN: 978-91-86635-26-8 Printed in Singapore Distributed in Europe by: Institute for Security and Development Policy Västra Finnbodavägen 2, 131 30 Stockholm-Nacka, Sweden Tel. +46-841056953; Fax. +46-86403370 Email: [email protected] Distributed in North America by: The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies 1619 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, D.C. 20036 Tel. +1-202-663-7723; Fax. +1-202-663-7785 E-mail: [email protected] Senior Editor: Dr. Bert Edström Editor: Elliot Brennan Editorial correspondence should be addressed to Dr. Bert Edström at: [email protected] Contents Executive Summary ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������5 Introduction �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������9 Ethnicity in Burma/Myanmar: An Overview ���������������������������������������������������13 The United Wa State Army (UWSA) ���������������������������������������������������������������������18 Background & History �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������18 Recent Developments ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������24 Karen National Union (KNU) ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������27 Background & History �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������27 Recent Developments ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������32 Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) ����������������������������������������������������������34 Background & History �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������34 Recent Developments ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������38 Assessments ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������41 United Wa State Army �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������41 Karen National Union ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������43 The Future of Non-State Armed Ethnic Groups ����������������������������������������������47 Policy Recommendations ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������50 To the Myanmar Government: ���������������������������������������������������������������������������50 To Ethnic Groups: �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������51 To the International Community: ����������������������������������������������������������������������51 About the Authors ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������53 Executive Summary Since the elections of 2010, Myanmar’s political landscape has changed sig- nificantly; the old military junta has officially been dissolved and a new civilian government, led by President Thein Sein, has been inaugurated. Together with the new constitution of 2008 and the government’s demand that all ethnic armies must integrate into the Border Guard Force (BGF), this situation raises a very important question; what will happen to the ongoing ethnic struggles in Myanmar? While the future is never certain, this paper will seek to predict the short-term future by focusing on Myanmar’s three main ethnic resistance groups: the Untied Wa State Army, the Kachin Inde- pendence Organization and the Karen National Union. Based on these pre- dictions, the paper will then provide a set of policy recommendations to the central government, the ethnic groups and the international community. Untied Wa State Army While the United Wa State Army (UWSA) has refused to join the govern- ment-initiated Boarder Guard Force and has made it clear that it still wants to establish a separate Wa state, it seems unlikely that the status quo will change in any significant way. Rather, it seems as if the current situation, where the UWSA enjoys a high degree of autonomy and relatively good relations with the government, will be maintained. There are several rea- sons for this. First of all, neither a military conflict nor a separate Wa state would be in China’s own national interest and since both UWSA and the Myanmar government have strong ties with China, these two scenarios seems very unlikely. Secondly, the Myanmar government is aware that enforcing the Bor- der Guard Force by military means would be a very costly strategy. UWSA maintains a formidable force of 20,000 soldiers and the territory which it occupies is difficult to access. Further, the homogeneity of the Wa people makes any attempt at dividing the organization difficult. However, even though the status quo will most likely be maintained in the short term, the health of UWSA’s chairman, Bao Youxiang, may come to change the situa- tion in the future. If his health deteriorates, a power struggle between the 6 Christopher O’Hara & Niels Selling red and white factions within the UWSA may arise. Further, if it fails to improve its military tactics, which have shown signs of weakness, it may no longer be able to deter an enemy invasion. Karen National Union Of the three groups in focus, the Karen National Union (KNU) seems the most vulnerable. While KNU still enjoys support from Karen people in Myanmar and abroad, it now faces a whole set of challenges and the group may come to lose much of this support in the future. Firstly, the conflict with the government severely undermines the physical safety of local villagers. In turn, this has begun to fuel resentment towards the conflict among KNU supporters. Secondly, KNU’s use of child soldiers and its practice of forced taxation contradict the ideals of many of its supporters, which often argue for democracy and human rights. Thirdly, the organization as a whole aims to promote a pro pan-Karen state, but in the local villages there is a lack of clarity when it comes to the cohesion of the KNU. In some cases, villagers do not even know which KNU or KNU affiliate is controlling a particular piece of land – a situation which undermines its authority in Karen areas. Added to this, KNU no longer enjoys significant support from Thailand and the Thai refugee camps, which it has grown dependent on, are likely to be closed in the near future. In this situation, KNU will lose much of its support base and while it may be able to sustain a short term lower intensity insur- gency, it will most likely be defeated militarily in the long term. Kachin Independence Organization Like the USWA, the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) has refused to join the Border Guard Force. However, by labeling KIO as insurgents in state media, the government has indicated that KIO’s refusal to join the Border Guard Force will not be taken as lightly as UWSA’s refusal. Consequently, there have been reports that KIO is speeding up recruitment of soldiers and strengthening its lines of defense, while the Myanmar army is mobilizing troops. Despite these developments, which suggest that a military conflict may take place soon, an outright attack on KIO in the short-term future is Myanmar’s Ethnic Insurgents: UWSA, KNU and KIO 7 unlikely. This is not only due to China, which may act as a restraining factor, but also due to the fact that a head-on-head conflict would be a very diffi- cult task for both the Myanmar army and KIO. Likewise, KIO is unlikely to fulfill its commitments under the United Nationalities Federal Council alli- ance and respond militarily if another member is attacked by the Myanmar army. While a military conflict is unlikely, KIO’s refusal to join the Border Guard Force may come with other negative consequences, as has already been demonstrated by the government’s block on border trade
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