Transnational Ethnic Communities and Rebel Groups’ Strategies in a Civil Conflict The case of the Karen National Union rebellion in Myanmar Bethsabée Souris University College London (UCL) 2020 A thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science I, Bethsabée Souris, confirm that the work presented in this thesis is my own. Where information has been derived from other sources, I confirm that this has been indicated in the thesis 1 2 Abstract Few studies have systematically analysed how transnational ethnic kin groups affect the behaviour of domestic ethnic groups in an insurgency, in particular how they have an effect on the types of activities they conduct and their targets. The research question of this study is: What are the mechanisms through which transnational ethnic kin groups influence the domestic rebel ethnic group’s strategies? This thesis analyses the influence of transnational communities on domestic challengers to the state as a two-step process. First, it investigates under which conditions transnational ethnic kin groups provide political and economic support to the rebel ethnic group. It shows that networks between rebel groups and transnational communities, which can enable the diffusion of the rebel group’s conflict frames, are key to ensure transnational support. Second, it examines how such transnational support can influence rebel groups’ strategies. It shows that central to our understanding of rebel groups’ strategies is the cohesion (or lack thereof) of the rebel group. Furthermore, it identifies two sources of rebel group’s fragmentation: the state counter-insurgency strategies, and transnational support. The interaction of these two factors can contribute to the fragmentation of the group and in turn to a shift in the strategies it conducts. These causal mechanisms will be tested by using process tracing in the case of the Karen rebellion in Myanmar/Burma. The paper will present the theoretical framework, and empirical work drawn from fieldwork at the Thai-Myanmar border. Word count: 81,672 3 Acknowledgments The last years have been filled with a lot of challenges which I could have not been able to overcome with the support of so many people who have generously contributed to the work presented in this thesis. There are numerous people without whom I could have not been able to cope with the pressure of completing this project: my friends, Lucie, Armonie, Manu, Paul, and my late friend Armelle, who have provided me with the necessary encouragement and pushed me to finish this project; my family who has always helped me in all ways possible and to whom I cannot begin to express my gratitude; finally, Kristoffer Amin who stood by my side these last years, and whose support has been invaluable. I am grateful to my primary supervisor Dr. Rodwan Abouharb who helped me go through this project. I am also indebted to my secondary supervisor Dr. Kristin M. Bakke for reading numerous versions of this work and providing excellent comments. My gratitude also goes to Dr. Slava Mikhaylov and Dr. Niheer Dasandi whose precious advice and support have helped me to overcome some of the most difficult challenges during this PhD. The fieldwork for this dissertation could have not been possible without the help of the Yontararak family, in particular Pa-Wongdeaun Yontararak who helped me prepare my first trip to the Thai- Burmese border. The financial contribution from the Institut de Recherche d’Asie du Sud Est (IRASEC) also made this fieldwork possible. Merci. 4 Impact Statement This research has investigated the influence transnational ethnic communities can have on rebel groups. Previous research has found that transnational ethnic communities, including refugees and diasporas, have intervened in civil conflicts. The capacity of some transnational ethnic communities to support an armed group means that transnational ethnic communities are potentially powerful actors in international politics. Yet, although the literature on conflict has shown that transnational communities have an impact on a conflict, less is known about the exact mechanisms through which such transnational actors influence non-state armed groups. This research has aimed to contribute to filling this gap in the literature. Analysing the links between transnational communities and rebel groups can have important implications for policy-makers. For international organisations providing assistance to refugee communities or conflict-generated diaspora can present ethical and operational challenges. Humanitarian workers struggle to protect refugees, asylum-seekers or displaced persons as they are confronted to poor security in refugee camps, sexual and gender-based violence or forced recruitment of soldiers. These security issues can be aggravated by the misappropriation of humanitarian aid. Scholars have shown that these security issues have been linked to the militarisation of refugees or the penetration of rebel groups in refugee camps. The fear of a refugee-warriors who will use refugee camps as bases of military operations, misuse international aid or exploit wider refugee population, has led international organisations to develop policies to ensure a strict separation between combatants and civilian populations in refugee camps. However, this dogmatic approach may miss the complexity of the relationship between refugees and rebel groups. Indeed, one of the findings of this study indicates that rebel groups and refugees can share strong ties and there can be a high level of embeddedness of the rebel groups in the refugee camps. The case of the Karen refugee camps on the Thai-Myanmar/Burma border shows that in some cases, there are no clear separation between soldiers and the refugee population, and the rebel group can ensure the governance of refugee camps. 5 As such, in some contexts, it is possible to consider rebel groups as a partner in the protection of the refugees rather than a threat. In addition, this research demonstrates that transnational communities can become a rebel constituency who can have an influence over a rebel group’s unity and decision-making processes. As active stakeholders in a rebel group’s internal politics, transnational ethnic communities can make or break a rebel group’s cohesion. This finding may be important for policy-makers as it highlights that the inclusion of transnational communities can be key to ensure the sustainability of peace deals. Therefore, international organisations might explore possibilities of engagement with transnational communities as partners in brokering a peace deal, with the specific goal of encouraging a more representative and durable approach to peace negotiations. 6 Table of Contents Abstract .................................................................................................................................................................... 3 Acknowledgments .................................................................................................................................................... 4 Impact Statement .................................................................................................................................................... 5 Chapter 1: Introduction- Civil war and mobilising across borders ......................................................................... 11 1.1. The puzzle ................................................................................................................................................... 11 1.2. Main definitions .......................................................................................................................................... 14 1.2.1. Who are the transnational ethnic communities becoming involved in internal conflicts? ................. 14 1.2.2. What are the strategies rebel groups can pursue? .............................................................................. 17 1.3. Main theoretical findings ............................................................................................................................ 18 1.3.1. Why do diaspora or refugee communities provide support to rebel groups? .................................... 18 1.3.2. How do diaspora and refugees influence rebel groups’ strategies? .................................................... 20 1.4. Empirical approach ..................................................................................................................................... 22 1.4.1. Rationale for using process tracing ...................................................................................................... 22 1.4.2. Rationale for using the Karen conflict as a case study ......................................................................... 23 1.4.3. Notes on language: Myanmar or Burma? ............................................................................................ 24 1.5. Layout of dissertation ................................................................................................................................. 25 Chapter 2: Understanding transnational ethnic communities’ mobilisation ......................................................... 27 2.1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................................ 27 2.2. Existing explanations for transnational ethnic mobilisation ......................................................................