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The-Contested-Corner 200X270 mm sun 9 mm 200X270 mm ISBN 978-616-91408-1-8 9 786169 140818 56-06-011_COVER_V=G ClassicArtCard-cs6 The Contested Corners of Asia: Subnational Conflict and International Development Assistance Thomas Parks Nat Colletta Ben Oppenheim Authors Thomas Parks, Nat Colletta, Ben Oppenheim Contributing Authors Adam Burke, Patrick Barron Research Team (in alphabetical order) Fermin Adriano, Jularat Damrongviteetham, Haironesah Domado, Pharawee Koletschka, Anthea Mulakala, Kharisma Nugroho, Don Pathan, Ora-orn Poocharoen, Erman Rahman, Steven Rood, Pauline Tweedie, Hak-Kwong Yip Advisory Panel Judith Dunbar, James Fearon, (in alphabetical order) Nils Gilman, Bruce Jones, Anthony LaViña, Neil Levine, Stephan Massing, James Putzel, Rizal Sukma, Tom Wingfield World Bank Counterparts Ingo Wiederhofer, Markus Kostner, Adrian Morel, Matthew Stephens, Pamornrat Tansanguanwong, Ed Bell, Florian Kitt, Holly Wellborn Benner Supporting Team Ann Bishop (editor), Landry Dunand, Anone Saetaeo (layout), Kaptan Jungteerapanich, Gobie Rajalingam Lead Expert Nat Colletta Project Manager Thomas Parks Research Specialist and Perception Survey Lead Ben Oppenheim Research Methodologist Hak-Kwong Yip Specialist in ODA to Conflict Areas Anthea Mulakala This study has been co-financed by the State and Peacebuilding Fund (SPF) of the World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. Additional funding for this study was provided by UK Aid from the UK Government. The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of The Asia Foundation or the funders. Copyright © 2013 by The Asia Foundation The Asia Foundation All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced 465 Calfornia Street, 9th Floor without written permission from The Asia Foundation. San Fransisco, CA U.S.A. 94104 ISBN 978-616-91408-1-8 www.asiafoundation.org Contents List of Terms and Acronyms VI Diagnosing the Problem of Subnational Conflict 1. Introduction 1 1.1 Research methods 6 2. Subnational Conflict in Asia 11 2.1 Defining subnational conflict 11 2.2 Subnational conflict in Asia since 1992 15 2.3 Violence levels 20 2.4 Economic growth and subnational conflict 23 2.5 Regime type and subnational conflict 26 2.6 State capacity and subnational conflict 28 2.7 Levels of fear in subnational conflict areas 29 2.8 Development levels in subnational conflict areas 31 3. Framework for Analysis: Subnational Conflict and Transformational Aid 37 3.1 Characteristics of subnational conflict 38 3.2 Stages of transition 47 3.3 Strategies for supporting transitions to peace 49 3.4 How aid can support transitions to peace 52 Current Practices by International Development Agencies 4. Aid Practices and Trends in Subnational Conflict Areas 59 4.1 Tracking aid flows to subnational conflict areas: challenges and gaps 60 4.2 Overview of overseas development assistance (ODA) funding to subnational conflict areas 62 4.3 How the presence of a peace process influences aid flows 67 4.4 Improving aid tracking 70 4.5 Case studies of Aceh, Mindanao and Southern Thailand 72 VI 5. Understanding the Patterns of Aid Provision 79 5.1 How does foreign aid function during different phases of a transition process? 80 5.2 Aid policy and practice: explaining why these patterns emerge 82 6. Conflict, Politics and Aid at the Community Level 95 6.1 Community perceptions of aid 97 6.2 Aid shaped by local power structures 99 6.3 Can aid project design control the extent of elite capture? 101 6.4 Non-state armed groups: longevity and fragmentation 103 Re-thinking Aid: Proposing a Way Forward 7. How Aid Can Contribute to Peace and Development 113 7.1 Strategy: supporting a transition to peace 113 7.2 Key elements of an effective aid strategy 128 7.3 Improving evaluation and learning in subnational conflict areas 130 7.4 Adaptive response: how effective aid officials navigate agency risk tolerance levels and local contextual complexity and diversity 133 8. Conclusion 135 8.1 Strategies for transformation 135 8.2 The limits of aid in subnational conflicts 136 8.3 Re-orienting development agencies to support transformative strategies 139 8.4 Implications for aid policy 147 Endnotes 151 References 161 VII List of Terms and Acronyms ADB : Asian Development Bank APIS : Annual Poverty Incidence Survey (Philippines) ARMM : Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao AusAID : Australian Agency for International Development BEAM : Basic Education Assistance in Mindanao BIFF : Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters BKPG : Bantuan Keuangan Pemakmue Gampong (Financial Assistance for Village Development) BRA : Badan Reintegrasi Aceh (Aceh Reintegration Board) CBD : Community-based Development CDD : Community-driven Development CPP-NPA : Communist Party of the Philippines-New Peoples’ Army EU : European Union FAB : Framework Agreement for the Bangsamoro GAM : Gerakan Aceh Merdeka (Free Aceh Movement) GIZ : Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (German Society for International Cooperation) HCB : Heidelberg Conflict Barometer ICRS : Information, Counseling and Referral Service IOM : International Organization for Migration JICA : Japan International Cooperation Agency KALAHI-CIDSS : Kapitbisig Laban sa Kahirapan-Comprehensive and Integrated Delivery of Social Services KPPOD : Komite Pemantauaan Pelaksanaan Otonomi Daerah (Regional Autonomy Watch) VIII LDI : Local Development Institute LTTE : Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam MAC : Muslim Attorney Center MAR : Minorities at Risk MILF : Moro Islamic Liberation Front MinDA : Mindanao Development Authority MNLF : Moro National Liberation Front NGO : Non-governmental Organization NSAGs : Non-state Armed Groups NVMS : National Violence Monitoring System ODA : Overseas Development Assistance OECD DAC : Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development Development Assistance Committee PNG : Papua New Guinea PNPM : Program Nasional Pemberdayaan Masyarakat (National Community Empowerment Program) PREM : Poverty Reduction and Economic Management PSG’s : Peacebuilding and Statebuilding Goals PULO : Pattani United Liberation Organization SBPAC : Southern Border Provinces Administration Center SNC : Subnational Conflict TAF : The Asia Foundation UACD : Uppsala Armed Conflict Dataset UNICEF : United Nations Children’s Fund USAID : United States Agency for International Development. WDR : World Development Report IX 1. Introduction Subnational conflict is the most wide- generally-stable, middle-income countries, spread, enduring, and deadly form of with relatively strong governments, regular conflict in Asia. Over the past 20 years elections, and capable security forces. As (1992-2012), there have been 26 subna- such, subnational conflicts are different tional conflicts in South and Southeast Asia, from fragile states and they present the affecting half of the countries in this region.1 international community with a distinct These conflicts are among the world’s long- set of challenges. est running armed struggles, often lasting for multiple generations, and 45.2 years on Subnational conflicts in Asia challenge average.2 Prominent subnational conflicts much of the conventional wisdom about the in Asia include Mindanao in the Philip- causes of armed conflict and its relationship pines, southern Thailand, Aceh and Papua to state capacity and development. Most in Indonesia, Assam and Kashmir in India, subnational conflicts areas in Asia have a northern Sri Lanka, and Baluchistan in functioning system of government, though Pakistan. In Myanmar/Burma alone, there central state authority may be contested are 7 major subnational conflicts, with 6 of and weak in some areas. Furthermore, the them lasting for more than 5 decades.3 relationship between economic develop- ment and conflict is complex and generally Asia is particularly prone to subnational defies simple predictions that long-term conflicts, which are defined as armed development will reduce or end armed conflicts over control of a subnational conflict. While many areas are relatively territory, within a sovereign state.4 Most of under-developed compared to the rest of these conflicts emerged in the decades after their respective countries, they are generally independence from colonial powers in the not the poorest regions, and it is rare to find 1940s and 1950s, when Asian governments absolute poverty. sought to consolidate control over minority populations that objected to integrating This form of conflict is the most deadly in into the new state. In last 10 years, nearly Asia. At least 1.35 million people have been 60% of the world’s active subnational con- killed in Asian subnational conflicts since flicts have been found in Asia. In contrast, 1946, according to data from the Uppsala fragile states are relatively rare in Asia.5 Conflict Data Program. Between 1999 and 2008, more people were killed in sub- Asia’s experience with subnational con- national conflicts in Asia than in all other flicts shows that large-scale, armed violence forms of conflict combined. Over the same can occur and endure in strong states as 10-year period, conflict-related deaths in well as weak ones. Remarkably, the major- Asian fragile states were significantly below ity of subnational conflicts take place in those occurring in subnational conflicts.6 1 Taken as
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