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In the New Exploration Age Assessing the Risks to Astronauts Page 18 October 2015 Safety in the New Exploration Age Assessing the risks to astronauts Page 18 Faster helos/10 All-weather landing/32 Hybrid airships/38 A PUBLICATION OF THE AMERICAN INSTITUTE OF AERONAUTICS AND ASTRONAUTICS 4–8 JANUARY 2016 SAN DIEGO, CA WHY ATTEND? FEATURING 12 TECHNICAL • Increase your influence and reach the individuals who are developing the CONFERENCES next generation of aerospace technologies and vehicles. 24th AIAA/AHS Adaptive Structures Conference 54th AIAA Aerospace Sciences Meeting • Expand your knowledge as engineers, scientists, and students share their latest AIAA Atmospheric Flight Mechanics Conference research and development findings. 15th Dynamics Specialists Conference • Find out what lies ahead as senior AIAA Guidance, Navigation, and Control Conference leaders discuss their programs and business challenges during plenary and interactive AIAA Information Systems—Infotech@Aerospace Conference Forum 360 panel sessions. AIAA Modeling and Simulation Technologies • Network, discuss challenges, and Conference share ideas during technical sessions, luncheons, student activities, networking 18th AIAA Non-Deterministic Approaches Conference breaks, exposition activities, and the Rising 57th AIAA/ASCE/AHS/ASC Structures, Structural Leaders in Aerospace program. Dynamics, and Materials Conference • Celebrate our community’s discoveries 9th Symposium on Space Resource Utilization and achievements during recognition functions. 3rd AIAA Spacecraft Structures Conference 34th Wind Energy Symposium Find out more and register soon! aiaa-scitech.org 15-639 October 2015 DEPARTMENTS Page 8 EDITOR’S NOTEBOOK 2 Page 26 Space flight and risk aversion INTERNATIONAL BEAT 4 Carbon fibers from thin air; tiltrotor certification; Twin Otter revival IN BRIEF 8 Turbine engine prize; Orion heat shield upgrade ENGINEERING NOTEBOOK 10 Better helos through active flight control SPACE 2015 14 Page 38 Highlights from Pasadena BOOKS 16 Grasping the relationship between humans and machines OUT OF THE PAST 44 CAREER OPPORTUNITIES 46 FEATURES Page 10 MAXIMIZING SAFETY 18 With the U.S. making plans to send humans to an asteroid and Mars, how will NASA and the industry aim to keep the risk of deadly accidents and illnesses to acceptable levels? by Debra Werner and Anatoly Zak VIEWPOINT: REVIVE THE SPACE SHUTTLE 26 Not everyone is content to let the space shuttle recede quietly into history. A NASA veteran is advocating for the development of a fleet of privately operated Commercial Space Shuttle freighters. by Don A. Nelson ALL-WEATHER LANDING 32 The global air transportation industry has historically been slow to embrace new technology, but not so for precision landing these days. Airlines are vying to find the best mix of technologies. by Philip Butterworth-Hayes NEW LIFE FOR AN OLD HYBRID 38 After being passed over to supply the Army with an intelligence and communications airship, Skunk Works hopes the P-791 can pry open the new cargo and passenger market. by Henry Kenyon BULLETIN AIAA Meeting Schedule B2 Page 32 AIAA News B5 AIAA SciTech 2016 Event Preview B12 AAS/AIAA Space Flight Mechanics Meeting Event Preview B14 Committee Nominations B15 ON THE COVER Delta 4 Heavy carrying Orion crew capsule lifts off for unmanned flight test in December 2014. Credit: United Launch Alliance Aerospace America (ISSN 0740-722X) is published monthly by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc. at 1801 Alexander Bell Drive, Reston, Va. 20191-4344 [703/264-7500]. Subscription rate is 50% of dues for AIAA members (and is not deductible therefrom). Nonmember subscription price: U.S., $200; foreign, $220. Single copies $20 each. Postmaster: Send address changes and subscription orders to address above, attention AIAA Customer Service, 703/264-7500. Periodical postage paid at Reston, Va., and at additional mailing offices. Copyright 2015 by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc., all rights reserved. The name Aerospace America is registered by the AIAA in the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office. 40,000 copies of this issue printed. This is Volume 53, No. 9. ® is a publication of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics Editor’s Notebook Ben Iannotta Editor-in-Chief Kyung M. Song Associate Editor Greg Wilson Risk aversion Production Editor Jerry Grey In the novel “The Martian,” stranded astronaut Mark Watney clings to hope Editor-at-Large for a rescue, writing in his journal that the next crew is due to arrive in four Christine Williams years. Of course, as Watney notes, that scenario assumes the mission isn’t can- Editor AIAA Bulletin celed because of his “death” in the same ferocious sandstorm that drove his crew mates to flee back to Earth and leave him for dead. Contributing Writers It’s an insightful moment in this technical and well-told story, and one that Philip Butterworth-Hayes, Keith Button, touches on a reality of human space flight: Continued exploration teeters on Lawrence Garrett, Duane Hyland, a precipice between tragedy on one side and unaffordable safety measures on Henry Kenyon, Natalia Mironova, Meaghan Mulholland, Don A. Nelson, the other. That balancing act makes our cover story about astronaut protection, Robert van der Linden, Debra Werner, “Maximum Safety,” especially compelling. Our contributors explore in detail how Frank H. Winter, Anatoly Zak NASA calculates risk and how it plans to keep those risks to acceptable levels on the deep-space missions to come. Jane Fitzgerald Art Direction and Design The article made me realize that safety at all costs is a nonstarter in space, just as it is on Earth. Americans are willing to get into automobiles and hurtle James F. Albaugh, President down the highway at 70 mph, among drivers of various skill levels, protected James “Jim” Maser, President-Elect only by seat belts, airbags and crumple zones. The auto industry could make cars Sandra H. Magnus, Publisher Craig Byl, Manufacturing and Distribution even safer, but at some point those measures would make them unaffordable. So, drivers calculate that their destinations are worth the risks. STEERING COMMITTEE And so it is in space. John Evans, Lockheed Martin; Steven E. Americans take responsibility for each other, even if it might not seem like it Gorrell, Brigham Young University; Frank Lu, on the Washington, D.C., Beltway. We don’t like to see our friends or colleagues University of Texas at Arlington; David R. Riley, die in car accidents or spaceship accidents. We delegate lots of oversight power to Boeing; Mary L. Snitch, Lockheed Martin; government agencies and congressional committees for matters of transportation. Annalisa Weigel, Fairmont Consulting Group In the space business, an unfortunate result of this oversight can be a tendency EDITORIAL BOARD toward excessive aversion to risks. Experts in the industry know they must guard Ned Allen, Jean-Michel Contant, against this tendency. L.S. “Skip” Fletcher, Michael Francis, Former astronaut Frank Culbertson, now an executive at Orbital ATK, Cam Martin, Don Richardson, Douglas Yazell spoke eloquently about risk at AIAA’s Propulsion & Energy Forum in July. He said aversion has trickled down even to the unmanned R & D stages ADVERTISING of technology development, such as when his company struggled to get Joan Daly, 703-938-5907 approval to conduct an unmanned test on a new kind of solid rocket motor. [email protected] “It took us 30 days to get clearance from our customer to actually do that Pat Walker, 415-387-7593 test,” he said. “If we had just done that test, and it failed, we could have had it [email protected] going again in two weeks,” he said. “This is a part of our business that’s very important: We are going to have failures, we can’t afford to let them stop us.” LETTERS AND CORRESPONDENCE It’s true that risk aversion must be kept at bay, but history suggests Americans Ben Iannotta, [email protected] and their leaders are actually pretty tenacious and accepting of risk in space QUESTIONS AND ADDRESS CHANGES exploration. Astronauts walked on the moon a little over two years after [email protected] the deadly Apollo 1 launch pad fire in 1967. When the shuttle Challenger ADVERTISING MATERIALS exploded in 1986, President Ronald Reagan addressed the nation hours later Craig Byl, [email protected] and reminded us that “the future doesn’t belong to the fainthearted,” and that the “Challenger crew was pulling us into the future, and we’ll continue to October 2015, Vol. 53, No. 9 follow them.” In 2003, when the Columbia crew perished over Texas, a second shuttle tragedy did not mark the immediate end of the program, as some had predicted. I see no reason to think that our national resolve has frayed to the point where all that has changed and Americans would elect to stay home rather than to go out and explore. Ben Ian notta Editor-in-Chief AIAA – WHERE MEMBERSHIP MATTERS! HERE ARE THE MANY WAYS YOU CAN START MAKING YOUR PROFESSIONAL MEMBERSHIP WORK FOR YOU: • AIAA Daily Launch — Stay informed on • Enhance Your Leadership Skills — Our the latest industry reports that affect your technical programs provide opportunities to day-to-day work present technical papers and research • Aerospace America — • Use Our Career Center — The ladder to Get in-depth insight on the subject matter your next success that is shaping the aerospace industry with this monthly publication • Discounted Fees — To AIAA forums and professional development seminars • Participation is Power — AIAA forums provide you with the opportunity to network • Discounts — On
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