Morning Wrap Today ’s Newsflow Equity Research 14 Mar 2016 Upcoming Events Select headline to navigate to article ARYZTA LFLs back into the black in Q2 Company Events 14-Mar Applegreen; Applegreen Strong set of maiden results (5% beat) ARYZTA; Q2 2016 Results US Building Materials Strong growth in Highways in 15-Mar Geberit; Q4 2015 Results 17-Mar Air France-KLM; FY results January HeidelbergCement; Q4 2015 Results LafargeHolcim; Q4 2015 Results Irish construction Momentum in recovery continues Lufthansa; Final Year Results 21-Mar Datalex; Q4 2015 Results Cairn Homes Large residential portfolio up for sale/Construction activity demand/Cairn deal Hibernia REIT Purchase of One Earlsfort Terrace for €19.2m Economic View Political stalemate continues Economic View DBRS upgrades Ireland’s credit rating to A high Economic Events Ireland United Kingdom United States Europe Goodbody Capital Markets Equity Research +353 1 6419221 Equity Sales +353 1 6670222 Bloomberg GDSE<GO> Goodbody Stockbrokers (trading as Goodbody) is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. For the attention of US clients of Goodbody Securities Inc, this third-party research report has been produced by our affiliate Goodbody Stockbrokers. Please see the end of this report for analyst certifications and other important disclosures. Goodbody Morning Wrap ARYZTA LFLs back into the black in Q2 ARYZTA maintained its full year EPS guidance at 365-385c in its interim statement this Recommendation: Buy morning, though with adjustments in respect of disposals in the period (€100m annual sales, Closing Price: €44.00 implies 360-380c EPS). H1 EPS of 158.4c was slightly ahead of our 155.7c, down 1.9% on reported H115 but 2.5% ahead of H115 excluding Origin. LFL for the Group of 0.4% Liam Igoe +353-1-641 9450 compares with -0.9% for the same period last year. Cash flow improved as working capital [email protected] was squeezed and capex fell €109m. The improved H116 LFL growth of 0.4% implies that lfl growth in Q2 for continuing operations was 0.8%, an improvement on -0.4% seen in Q116. Comments from management on its performance in the period suggests that this improvement should continue in the coming quarters but this will be gradual. New business wins remained high in the period (+8.2% in H1 vs 7.7% in Q1), but losses including SKU rationalisation also remained high (-8.0% in H1 vs -8.1% Q1). The biggest improvement in the headline lfl was in North America, which improved from - 5.6% in Q116, to -2.4% in Q2. This was partly due to some unwinding of the SKU rationalisation process, which was mainly centred on ARYZTA’s operations in that region, but actually more so to high wins (see table). Europe’s lfl continued to be robust at +3.8% in Q216 versus a very strong +5.5% in Q116. As in Q1, the growth is being driven by ARYZTA’s bakeries, where volumes have benefited from strong sales by its larger customers (including retail discounter chains). Margins were lower due to lower growth in Food Solutions. Given that headline lfl data is showing accelerating growth in the first two quarters of the year we expect that ARYZTA’s bottom of the range valuation multiples (notably its PER) will edge upwards in the coming quarters. There should be improving visibility in future quarters’ potential since the headline data should reflect that the SKU rationalisation is petering out over the next year. We expect to bring EPS closer to the top end of the adjusted range. Home… Page 2 14 Mar. 16 Goodbody Morning Wrap Applegreen Strong set of maiden results (5% beat) Applegreen has reported strong FY15 results this morning, with gross profit of €125.9m Recommendation: Buy (+30% yoy) and adjusted net income of €15.8m (+33% yoy). This is c.5-6% ahead of our Closing Price: €4.50 expectations. Adjusted EPS was 22.2c per share. Patrick Higgins +353-1-641 0403 The Group’s total estate grew by 48 stations (+32% yoy) over the course of 2015 vs our [email protected] forecast of 42 new stations. The total number at year-end was 200. Excluding Dealer sites, 23 new stations were added (+16% yoy) vs our forecast of 29. Of these, 17 were PFS stations while 6 were service areas. In addition, there was a total of 27 rebrands (vs. Goodbody forecast of 15). In Ireland, total gross profit grew by 23%, driven by estate rollout (37 new sites – 7 PFS stations, 5 service areas and 25 dealer sites) and LFL growth of 6.5% in store and food gross profit (aided by 10 rebrands/upgrades). Fuel like-for-like gross profit growth was -0.6% due to a difficult prior year comp and fuel price volatility. The UK business also delivered a stellar performance, with total gross profit growing 50% in the period. Again this was driven by estate expansion (8 new sites – 7 PFS stations and 1 service area) and LFL growth of 8.5% in store and food gross profit (aided by 8 rebrand/upgrades). Fuel lfl gross profit was +4.9%. Net debt came in at c. €5m in the year vs our forecast of a €5m net cash position. The variance is primarily due to a higher capex spend (€59m vs. €48m forecast) which was driven by the faster than expected rebrand programme and service area expansion. Estate expansion has continued apace in 2016, with 4 new sites added in RoI (3 PFS and 1 service area) and 5 new sites the UK (3 PFS and 2 service areas). Today’s results and the positive start to 2016 reaffirms our positive stance on Applegreen. After adjusting our model for the current sterling headwind (c. 8%), we leave our current forecasts for the year broadly unchanged. Home… Page 3 14 Mar. 16 Goodbody Morning Wrap US Building Materials Strong growth in Highways in January Mirroring commentary from industry players and other data points, the more detailed ARTBA Robert Eason +353-1-641 9271 data shows that it has been a very strong January for US highways. The value of [email protected] construction put in place for Highways and Streets is up 32% in January from +14% in December with Pavements growing by 35% (+10% in Dec). David O’Brien +353-1-641 9230 david.a.o’[email protected] The strong start to the year is encouraging for CRH and HEI and has coloured a Sarah Reilly positive rhetoric from both management teams on the region. While growth is +353-1-641 6080 helped by favourable weather, the FAST act is likely providing increased confidence [email protected] for the state & local government to embark on projects given certainty around Jason Molins funding. +353-1-641 9141 [email protected] Home… Irish construction Momentum in recovery continues The latest Irish construction PMI shows a very strong results for February. The overall index Robert Eason +353-1-641 9271 came in at 68.8 from 63.6 in January, representing the highest level in over ten years. This [email protected] was driven by strength across the board with residential (71.2 in Feb from 65.8 in Jan) and commercial (68.5 in Feb from 62.4 in Jan) gaining momentum. Civil engineering also David O’Brien +353-1-641 9230 improved mom to 62.3 from 54.7 in January. david.a.o’[email protected] Sarah Reilly Grafton Group is the best way to gain exposure to this strong recovery with c.20% +353-1-641 6080 of group sales in Ireland, a key differentiator against its lightside peers. [email protected] Jason Molins +353-1-641 9141 [email protected] Home… Page 4 14 Mar. 16 Goodbody Morning Wrap Cairn Homes Large residential portfolio up for sale/Construction activity demand/Cairn deal Cairn Homes has announced the first transfers of the Project Clear assets and a further site Recommendation: Buy acquisition. Three separate development sites (15% of the Project Clear portfolio) have Closing Price: €1.17 moved into direct ownership, including a six acre site at Moyglare in Maynooth, Co Kildare. Colm Foley In addition, it has also acquired an additional site adjacent to the Moyglare site for €27m +353-1-641 6042 from York Capital, adjoining NUI Maynooth. The combined site has the potential for 430 [email protected] units, plus a 500—bed student accommodation scheme. Separately, media reports over the weekend indicate that New Generation Homes is looking to sell around half of its development sites for c.€400m. The company has appointed advisors to find buyers for up to 25 development sites in Dublin and the surrounding commuter counties. The disposal plan was prompted by approaches to the company following the Project Clear transaction, according to sources in the reports, which was the large portfolio sale by Ulster Bank, which was won by Cairn Homes and Lone Star. According to various reports over the weekend, all of the players in the race for the Project Clear transaction have been approached by New Generation’s advisors, with Cairn, Michael O’Flynn and Lone Star all mentioned. Elsewhere, we note strong activity in the Ulster Bank PMI data for construction activity. The index for February expanded at its fastest pace since the index was launched in 2000, with growth in the housing and commercial sectors, but with residential momentum leading the way (up from 65.8 to 71.2). Elsewhere, the Irish Times reports that Hays Ireland has indicated demand for construction staff rose by 46% in February, with a quarter of the new jobs in housebuilding.