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Morning Wrap Morning Wrap Today ’s Newsflow Equity Research 21 Dec 2020 08:18 GMT Upcoming Events Select headline to navigate to article Breedon Group Further upgrades point to double-digit Company Events growth in H2 ARYZTA Elliott offer rejected, further update on strategic plans Harworth Group Further land sale as busy Q4 continues to deliver Greencoat Renewables €123m forward funding deal with Statkraft Economic Events Ireland 22-Dec PPI Nov20 Wholesale Price Indsx Nov20 United Kingdom 22-Dec GDP Q3 Exports Q3 Imports Q3 Current Account Q3 United States Europe This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Investment Banking and its affiliates Goodbody Capital Markets Equity Research +353 1 6419221 Equity Sales +353 1 6670222 Bloomberg GDSE<GO> Goodbody Stockbrokers UC, trading as “Goodbody”, is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. In the UK, Goodbody is authorised and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority. Goodbody is a member of Euronext Dublin and the London Stock Exchange. Goodbody is a member of the FEXCO group of companies. For the attention of US clients of Goodbody Securities Inc, this third-party research report has been produced by our affiliate, Goodbody Stockbrokers Goodbody Morning Wrap Breedon Group Further upgrades point to double-digit growth in H2 Breedon Group has released an update this morning highlighting that the positive trading Recommendation: Buy that the group noted in its Nov 18th trading update has continued. Management notes that Closing Price: £0.87 trading has continued to “exceed expectations across the Group” with like-for-like revenues David O'Brien in November trending positive yoy. The strong trading performance has continued into +353-1-641 9230 December and the Group now expects underlying EBIT to exceed market expectations. It is david.a.o'[email protected] guiding underlying EBIT in FY20 to be c£75m. For context, guidance on Nov 18th was "for the full year to be at least £70 million", which led to us upgrading by c.7% from £67m. Current consensus is now at £71m whilst we are forecasting £72m. The new guidance (i.e. £75m) implies H2 is +13% yoy, highlighting the current momentum. The group also now expects net debt to be “well below” £400m versus previous guidance of below £400m (Goodbody at £395m). This is a comforting statement from Breedon which will result in another upgrade to forecasts. We will be upgrading EBIT numbers by c.4% to be in-line with management guidance. Home… This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Investment Banking and its affiliates Page 2 21 Dec. 20 Goodbody Morning Wrap ARYZTA Elliott offer rejected, further update on strategic plans On Friday evening, ARYZTA released a short statement noting that following a review of the Recommendation: Restricted Elliot proposal the board had unanimously decided to reject the proposal. In a separate Closing Price: €0.65 release, and following on from last week’s AGM, the company outlined a number of steps being taken as part of a two-part strategic plan. Part one is the disposal of selective Jason Molins +353-1-641 9141 businesses, while part-two is focused on improving the remainder of the businesses to [email protected] deliver at least peer-equivalent operational and financial metrics. Regarding the disposal process, ARYZTA reiterated that it has received a number of expressions of interests for various parts of the business. Consequently, it plans to sell its entire business in North America and Latin America, while concentrating on Europe and APAC. It aims to complete the disposal process within the next six to nine months, with proceeds being applied towards debt reduction. While ARYZTA has limited debt maturities within the next 12 months (€9m maturing in March 2021 and €40m maturing in September 2021) its debt position at the end of FY20 comprised of €742m of Net Debt (pre-IFRS 16) and €906m of outstanding hybrid funding (including deferred dividends). In early December, ARYZTA noted its ambition of achieving €600-800m in selected disposals. As part of its intention to create a more lean, agile and multi-local organisation, by the end of 2021 it aims to reduce central overhead costs by at least 25%. By simplifying the business and moving to a multi-local model, it expects that within the next two years, the EBITDA margin can improve to c.12.5% (compared to c.9% in FY19). It expects to deliver sustainable organic growth over the next two to three years driven by a more locally empowered business model, and on the back of an improved financial position, the business will be able to participate in market consolidation. Following a tumultuous period for ARYZTA, in which COVID-19 has severely impacted the operational performance, the last few months has seen an overhaul of senior management as well as a refresh of the Board. Its decision to reject the Elliott proposal is consistent with recent commentary where the new Chairman and acting CEO, Urs Jordi, has suggested that there is greater shareholder value by focussing and driving the core business while considering selective asset disposals. We suspect FY21 will remain challenging for ARYZTA, particularly given the backdrop of COVID-19, while the successful execution of its updated strategy over the medium term will be key to drive a re-rating in the stock. Home… This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Investment Banking and its affiliates Page 3 21 Dec. 20 Goodbody Morning Wrap Harworth Group Further land sale as busy Q4 continues to deliver In further evidence of the rowing confidence in the UK residential property market, especially Recommendation: Buy for new homes, Harworth Group (HWG:LN), the leading brownfield regenerator, has Closing Price: £1.00 announced yet a further land sale, with the transaction of two parcels of serviced residential Colm Lauder land at its Waverley and Flass Lane major developments in Yorkshire to Avant Homes. Both +353-1-641 6042 sales were noted as being ahead of pre-COVID book values. The sites concerned see Avant [email protected] Homes acquire almost 13-acres at Waverley in Rotherham, where it intends to build 144 new residential units and 10-acres at Flass Lane in Castleford, where it intends to build 140 units. Harworth has enjoyed a strong finish to the year, representative of the resurgent residential market, with a total of 52-acres of ready to build on land was sold in Q4 for the delivery of 669 new houses, for an ahead pre-COVID book value price of £33m. Home… Greencoat Renewables €123m forward funding deal with Statkraft Greencoat Renewables announced two deals this morning for a combined value of €123m Recommendation: Hold under a forward contract with Statkraft. It looks like c. €2m per MW overall, which is broadly Closing Price: €1.16 in line with average acquisition price metrics and likely reflects strong load factors. The wind farms are set to be operational in 2022. They include: Cloghan (37.8MW) which is located in Gerry Hennigan +353-1-641 9274 County Offaly, and Taghart (25.2MW) is in County Cavan. Statkraft will manage the [email protected] construction of each wind farm and will continue to provide trading and operational management services for the wind farms once operational. There is no financial obligation for Greencoat until the wind farms are complete. Both wind farms benefit from 15-year fixed price contracts, secured under the recent RESS 1 auction. This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Investment Banking and its affiliates This is the first Greencoat Renewables acquisition supported by the Irish government's RESS scheme. The latest acquisitions are in line with Greencoat strategy to consolidate a fragmented onshore wind market in Ireland and provides medium term, long-dated income to its wind farm portfolio at attractive pricing levels. Home… Page 4 21 Dec. 20 Goodbody Morning Wrap Issuer & Analyst Disclosures Analyst Certification The named Research Analyst certifies that: (1) All of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any and all of the subject securities and issuers. (2) No part of my remuneration was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by me in this report. Regulatory Information Goodbody Stockbrokers UC, trading as Goodbody, is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. In the UK, is also subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority. Goodbody is a member of Euronext Dublin and the London Stock Exchange. Goodbody is a member of the FEXCO group of companies. This publication has been approved by Goodbody. The information has been taken from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy or completeness and any such information may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute best judgement at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. The information, tools and material presented in this document are provided to you for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities. Conflicts of Interest Goodbody has procedures and policies in place to identify and manage any potential conflicts of interest that arise in connection with its research business. Goodbody analysts and other staff who are involved in the preparation and dissemination of research operate and have a management reporting line that is independent to its business. Information barriers are in place between the Corporate Finance arm and the Research arm to ensure that any confidential and or price sensitive information is handled in an appropriate manner.
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