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Morning Wrap Morning Wrap Today ’s Newsflow Equity Research 31 Mar 2021 08:49 BST Upcoming Events Select headline to navigate to article Sumo Group FY20 First Glance – Strong performance and Company Events 31-Mar Sumo Group; FY20 Results growing revenue visibility 07-Apr Hilton Food Group; FY20 Results Irish Economic View Spending boost from large savings Yew Grove REIT; Final Q4 Div pool could be significant -Central Bank Irish Economic View House prices squeeze higher amid record low supply for sale Economic View Ireland’s COVID caution continues Irish Housebuilders Residential construction to re- commence on the 12th of April UK Housebuilders Nationwide House Price Index shows slower growth in March Builders Merchants Momentum building through Q121 Irish Banks Reopening still slow; spending of savings Economic Events Ireland patterns; sustainability plans Greencoat Renewables Seeking approval to add Solar in United Kingdom Ireland to the investment brief 31-Mar GDP Q4 Nationwide House Prices Mar21 United States Europe This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Stockbrokers and its affiliates Goodbody Capital Markets Equity Research +353 1 6419221 Equity Sales +353 1 6670222 Bloomberg GDSE<GO> Goodbody Stockbrokers UC, trading as “Goodbody”, is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. In the UK, Goodbody is authorised and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority. Goodbody is a member of Euronext Dublin and the London Stock Exchange. Goodbody is a member of the FEXCO group of companies. For the attention of US clients of Goodbody Securities Inc, this third-party research report has been produced by our affiliate, Goodbody Stockbrokers Goodbody Morning Wrap Sumo Group FY20 First Glance – Strong performance and growing revenue visibility Following an earnings surprise in a strong January Trading update, Sumo announced FY20 Recommendation: Buy results this morning with Revenue of £68.9m (Goodbody:£68m), representing 40.7% yoy Closing Price: £3.62 growth. Gross Profit was £31.5m (44% margin (Goodbody:44%). EBITDA of £16.5m is slightly ahead of our £16.3m forecast. Overall results are broadly in line with expectations Patrick O'Donnell +353-1-641 6013 post the January update. The outlook is very encouraging given (i) strong revenue visibility; [email protected] (ii) a very encouraging client pipeline; and (iii) Establishment of Secret Mode, a new publishing platform. Given that positive outlook, we maintain our bullish forecast of £24.5m FY21 EBITDA, at the top end of consensus reflecting upside from possible Pipeworks outperformance. Having acquired Pipeworks for up to $100m in September 2020, as well as the bolt on deal for Lab42, Sumo has broadened out its footprint and added in key clients such as Wizards of the Coast, Google and EA. It also acquired Pixel Ant Games in early 2021 adding its first Polish base with a roadmap for growth. Sumo notes a strong pipeline which it is currently assessing several targets from. Part of the constraints faced by outsourcers is access to talent pools. Sumo increased its headcount to 1,043 professionals at year end from 766 in 2019, 163 of which arises out of the acquisition of Pipeworks and Lab42. This is also a positive in the context of Sumos growing client pipeline, more than £400m in project value terms. The group is working across 40 projects for 28 clients compared with 21 projects and 12 clients in FY19 as a sign of the growing scale.The group notes improving visibility (in terms of budgeted development fees at contract or near contract stage) at Sumo studios of 85% (Feb-21) versus 73% as announced at end of Mar-2020. Pipeworks is at similar visibility to historic norms (50%) at this early point in the year. Sumo Group, given its high quality approach, and growing client base is well positioned to benefit from the net pickup in demand for content arising from (i) next generation console release; (ii) new models of gaming such as cloud gaming and (iii) the growing nucleus of players resulting from increased engagement in COVID-19 placing further pressure on publishers and driving further outsourcing. With strong revenue visibility and a growing international base to support that demand, we re-iterate our BUY recommendation. Home… This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Stockbrokers and its affiliates Page 2 31 Mar. 21 Goodbody Morning Wrap Irish Economic View Spending boost from large savings pool could be significant -Central Bank A 5% rise in consumer spending is the expected result of a possible splurge of 50% of pent- Shaun McDonnell up pandemic savings according to the Central Bank of Ireland’s most recent Economic Letter. +353-1-641 9127 [email protected] This should materialise through to Irish economic and employment growth. However, spending must be kept domestic, and there is scope for this to be the case. The most significant of the findings is that if half of the excess pandemic deposits that have been accumulated over the past year are spent, a 5% boost in consumer spending would manifest “over time”. Stripping out pre-pandemic savings trends, the CBI estimate that c.€11bn of “excess” deposits have built as a result of the pandemic. Using data from the most recent Household Budget Survey (2015/16), and controlling for the fact that spending patterns typically do not change much over time (based on previous surveys), the paper finds that 52% of excess savings belong to those in the top 30% of earners and that these higher income earners tend to spend more of their incomes in the sectors that are restricted by economic activity versus their lower income counterparts (33% vs 20% of average weekly spending for the top and bottom 10% of earners, respectively). In estimating how much of the pent-up savings may be spent and where spending will go, the paper identifies most of pandemic related savings as “additional income” rather than “precautionary savings”. They find that spending in restricted economic sectors such as foreign holidays, restaurants, and recreation/culture/sport tend to be higher among those in higher income cohorts, while spending on household furnishings and clothing tend to be higher in the lower income cohorts. Finally, they find that a an “additional income” shock worth a month of household income leads to a more significant increment in consumption in lower income households than in higher income households, primarily due to the already larger stock of savings among high earners. While a caveat of the paper, by no fault of the authors, is that the consumption boost is not given a time frame, the potential c.5% boost is still encouraging and agree that spending on domestic goods remains a crucial condition for the future jobs and economy wide growth in Ireland. Moreover, while historical spending trends may tell us something about where spending is likely to go in the future (i.e. in the case of household furnishings for example), we are of the view that there is scope for some change in spending patterns due to (1) an increase in domestic holidays as a result of restrictions on and fears around foreign travel in 2021 and This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Stockbrokers and its affiliates (2) lower income households may also shift spending more towards the hospitality and domestic tourism sectors as a result of their larger than usual stock of savings i.e. a larger income shock. Home… Page 3 31 Mar. 21 Goodbody Morning Wrap Irish Economic View House prices squeeze higher amid record low supply for sale Mirroring trends in other developed economies during the pandemic, record low levels of Dermot O’Leary housing supply continue to put upward pressure on house prices in Ireland. +353-1-641 9167 [email protected] According to the latest Daft.ie report out this morning, price momentum continued into 2021, with asking prices rising by 8% yoy in Q1 2021. Although demand has held up surprisingly well, aided by a build-up of savings amid those that have been relatively unaffected by lockdown, the primary driver of the upward price movement is supply; the stock of properties available for sale fell by 40% over the past twelve months as; (1) homeowners were reluctant to sell in the middle of a pandemic, and; (2) new supply has been curtailed by restrictions on building activity. The stock for sale is now at an all-time low across the country. Regionally, the greatest reduction in supply (-48%) and the largest rise in prices (+12%) is in Leinster, excluding Dublin. However, the trends are truly nationwide. Asking prices in Dublin rose by 7% yoy amid a 31% reduction in the stock for sale. With a large stock of outstanding mortgage approvals and very little supply amid ongoing restrictions, the upward squeeze in prices looks set to continue. Supply pressures should ease once homeowners become more comfortable with allowing people into their home, but that is a few months away yet. The need for new supply to ramp up quickly once residential construction returns on April 12th has never been greater. Home… This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Stockbrokers and its affiliates Page 4 31 Mar. 21 Goodbody Morning Wrap Economic View Ireland’s COVID caution continues Given the reality of a slow vaccine rollout hampered by supply issues, stubbornly high cases Dermot O’Leary despite a three-month lockdown and rising cases across the EU, expectations for any +353-1-641 9167 [email protected] substantial easing of restrictions in today's announcement by the Irish government were suitably low. This stance was justified, with only a very modest easing of restrictions mapped out yesterday by the Irish government for April.
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