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Today ’s Newsflow Equity Research 31 Mar 2021 08:49 BST Upcoming Events Select headline to navigate to article

Sumo Group FY20 First Glance – Strong performance and Company Events growing revenue visibility 31-Mar Sumo Group; FY20 Results 07-Apr Hilton Food Group; FY20 Results Irish Economic View Spending boost from large savings Yew Grove REIT; Final Q4 Div pool could be significant -Central Bank Irish Economic View House prices squeeze higher amid record low supply for sale Economic View Ireland’s COVID caution continues Irish Housebuilders Residential construction to re- commence on the 12th of April UK Housebuilders Nationwide House Price Index shows slower growth in March Builders Merchants Momentum building through Q121 Irish Banks Reopening still slow; spending of savings Economic Events patterns; sustainability plans Ireland Seeking approval to add Solar in Ireland to the investment brief United Kingdom 31-Mar GDP Q4 Nationwide House Prices Mar21

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Europe

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Sumo Group FY20 First Glance – Strong performance and growing revenue visibility

Following an earnings surprise in a strong January Trading update, Sumo announced FY20 Recommendation: Buy results this morning with Revenue of £68.9m (Goodbody:£68m), representing 40.7% yoy Closing Price: £3.62 growth. Gross Profit was £31.5m (44% margin (Goodbody:44%). EBITDA of £16.5m is slightly ahead of our £16.3m forecast. Overall results are broadly in line with expectations Patrick O'Donnell +353-1-641 6013 post the January update. The outlook is very encouraging given (i) strong revenue visibility; [email protected] (ii) a very encouraging client pipeline; and (iii) Establishment of Secret Mode, a new publishing platform. Given that positive outlook, we maintain our bullish forecast of £24.5m

FY21 EBITDA, at the top end of consensus reflecting upside from possible Pipeworks outperformance.

Having acquired Pipeworks for up to $100m in September 2020, as well as the bolt on deal for Lab42, Sumo has broadened out its footprint and added in key clients such as Wizards of the Coast, Google and EA. It also acquired Pixel Ant Games in early 2021 adding its first Polish base with a roadmap for growth. Sumo notes a strong pipeline which it is currently assessing several targets from.

Part of the constraints faced by outsourcers is access to talent pools. Sumo increased its headcount to 1,043 professionals at year end from 766 in 2019, 163 of which arises out of the acquisition of Pipeworks and Lab42. This is also a positive in the context of Sumos growing client pipeline, more than £400m in project value terms. The group is working across 40 projects for 28 clients compared with 21 projects and 12 clients in FY19 as a sign of the growing scale.The group notes improving visibility (in terms of budgeted development fees at contract or near contract stage) at Sumo studios of 85% (Feb-21) versus 73% as announced at end of Mar-2020. Pipeworks is at similar visibility to historic norms (50%) at this early point in the year.

Sumo Group, given its high quality approach, and growing client base is well positioned to benefit from the net pickup in demand for content arising from (i) next generation console release; (ii) new models of gaming such as cloud gaming and (iii) the growing nucleus of players resulting from increased engagement in COVID-19 placing further pressure on publishers and driving further outsourcing. With strong revenue visibility and a growing international base to support that demand, we re-iterate our BUY recommendation.

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Irish Economic View Spending boost from large savings pool could be significant -Central Bank

A 5% rise in consumer spending is the expected result of a possible splurge of 50% of pent- Shaun McDonnell up pandemic savings according to the Central Bank of Ireland’s most recent Economic Letter. +353-1-641 9127 [email protected] This should materialise through to Irish economic and employment growth. However, spending must be kept domestic, and there is scope for this to be the case.

The most significant of the findings is that if half of the excess pandemic deposits that have been accumulated over the past year are spent, a 5% boost in consumer spending would manifest “over time”. Stripping out pre-pandemic savings trends, the CBI estimate that c.€11bn of “excess” deposits have built as a result of the pandemic.

Using data from the most recent Household Budget Survey (2015/16), and controlling for the fact that spending patterns typically do not change much over time (based on previous surveys), the paper finds that 52% of excess savings belong to those in the top 30% of earners and that these higher income earners tend to spend more of their incomes in the sectors that are restricted by economic activity versus their lower income counterparts (33% vs 20% of average weekly spending for the top and bottom 10% of earners, respectively).

In estimating how much of the pent-up savings may be spent and where spending will go, the paper identifies most of pandemic related savings as “additional income” rather than “precautionary savings”. They find that spending in restricted economic sectors such as foreign holidays, restaurants, and recreation/culture/sport tend to be higher among those in higher income cohorts, while spending on household furnishings and clothing tend to be higher in the lower income cohorts. Finally, they find that a an “additional income” shock worth a month of household income leads to a more significant increment in consumption in lower income households than in higher income households, primarily due to the already larger stock of savings among high earners.

While a caveat of the paper, by no fault of the authors, is that the consumption boost is not given a time frame, the potential c.5% boost is still encouraging and agree that spending on domestic goods remains a crucial condition for the future jobs and economy wide growth in Ireland. Moreover, while historical spending trends may tell us something about where spending is likely to go in the future (i.e. in the case of household furnishings for example), we are of the view that there is scope for some change in spending patterns due to (1) an increase in domestic

holidays as a result of restrictions on and fears around foreign travel in 2021 and This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Stockbrokers and its affiliates (2) lower income households may also shift spending more towards the hospitality and domestic tourism sectors as a result of their larger than usual stock of savings i.e. a larger income shock.

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Irish Economic View House prices squeeze higher amid record low supply for sale

Mirroring trends in other developed economies during the pandemic, record low levels of Dermot O’Leary housing supply continue to put upward pressure on house prices in Ireland. +353-1-641 9167 [email protected]

According to the latest Daft.ie report out this morning, price momentum continued into 2021, with asking prices rising by 8% yoy in Q1 2021. Although demand has held up surprisingly well, aided by a build-up of savings amid those that have been relatively unaffected by lockdown, the primary driver of the upward price movement is supply; the stock of properties available for sale fell by 40% over the past twelve months as; (1) homeowners were reluctant to sell in the middle of a pandemic, and; (2) new supply has been curtailed by restrictions on building activity. The stock for sale is now at an all-time low across the country.

Regionally, the greatest reduction in supply (-48%) and the largest rise in prices (+12%) is in Leinster, excluding Dublin. However, the trends are truly nationwide. Asking prices in Dublin rose by 7% yoy amid a 31% reduction in the stock for sale.

With a large stock of outstanding mortgage approvals and very little supply amid ongoing restrictions, the upward squeeze in prices looks set to continue. Supply pressures should ease once homeowners become more comfortable with allowing people into their home, but that is a few months away yet. The need for new supply to ramp up quickly once residential construction returns on April 12th has never been greater.

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Economic View Ireland’s COVID caution continues

Given the reality of a slow vaccine rollout hampered by supply issues, stubbornly high cases Dermot O’Leary despite a three-month lockdown and rising cases across the EU, expectations for any +353-1-641 9167 [email protected] substantial easing of restrictions in today's announcement by the Irish government were suitably low. This stance was justified, with only a very modest easing of restrictions mapped out yesterday by the Irish government for April.

From an economic standpoint, the only change is a resumption of residential construction activity from April 12th. A wider reopening is delayed until at least May 4th but will be "subject to the prevailing health situation" and will occur on a phased basis. The Taoiseach noted that hotels and B&Bs may open at the end of June. On this basis, it appears that Ireland will be at least six weeks behind the UK in its reopening. It is disappointing that the Irish government did not follow the UK's lead in linking reopening to tangible targets around vaccination rollout, incidence and hospital capacity, thus providing a proper roadmap that could prove useful for businesses planning to reopen in the coming months.

The narrative around the pandemic in Ireland will change as vaccinations are ramped up in April. That is still our view despite the clear disappointment of additional restrictions at a time when Ireland's closest neighbours have just begun the process of a return to normality this week (yes, we are jealous!). Our Q1 Health Check was entitled Darkest before Dawn. We were early in that assessment given that restrictions will now last well into May, but the prospects still look good for a rapid rebound in H2 as they are finally removed.

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Irish Housebuilders Residential construction to re-commence on the 12th of April

Yesterday evening the Irish Government announced an easing of the current level 5 (highest Robert Eason level) COVID restrictions. As part of the easing of restrictions, residential construction will be +353-1-641 9271 allowed to recommence on the 12th of April. Under the previous lockdown regime, [email protected] construction of social housing was permitted if the property was scheduled to be completed David O’Brien by April 30th while all other “non-essential” construction remained closed until at least the +353-1-641 9230 5th of April. david.a.o’[email protected]

Following on from the extension of the level 5 restrictions until at least April 5th we have had Dudley Shanley +353-1-641 9174 an update from both Cairn Homes and Glenveagh Properties. Cairn Homes committed to [email protected] delivering 2,500 completions in 2021/22. This was in line with our existing forecast and it

provided excellent visibility to investors in so far as any completions that are not caught up Shane Carberry over the shortened 8-month building period in 2021 will be caught up in 2022. Cairn Homes +353-1-6419118 also committed to a gross margin of 18%/19% in 2021/22 and free cashflow generation of [email protected] c.€350-400m between 2021-23 (equivalent to 44-50% of the current mkt cap). Glenveagh Properties maintained 2021 guidance for a total of 1,150 completions in 2021 (1,000 core and 150 non-core).

The additional week of restrictions on residential construction will not make a material difference to the full year outcome. Given the length of the lockdown and the fear a few weeks ago that the lockdown would be extended further, we think Cairn Homes and Glenveagh Properties will just be happy to be fully back on site.

The three-and-a-half-month lockdown since the start of this year has done nothing to help the current undersupply of homes in Ireland. We believe there will be scope for both PLCs to take even more market share over the coming months/years as we suspect some of the smaller housebuilders, with weaker balance sheets, will be under increased pressure due to the length of the lockdown. Valuations for both Irish housebuilders look attractive at these levels but perhaps now more than ever, we believe that Cairn Homes’ balance sheet strength and significant WIP investment will pay dividends over the coming months/years.

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UK Housebuilders Nationwide House Price Index shows slower growth in March

The Nationwide House Price Index for March was published this morning. Prices were down - Shane Carberry 0.2% mom on a seasonally adjusted basis. This put the yoy change at +5.7% which is down +353-1-6419118 from +6.9% in February. Nationwide’s Chief Economist, Robert Gardner, puts the weakness [email protected] in March down to “a softening of demand ahead of the original end of the Stamp Duty Dudley Shanley holiday”. Looking forward, given the recent signs of economic resilience and the new +353-1-641 9174 stimulus measures announced in the Budget, Nationwide expect the market to remain [email protected] buoyant over the next six months. On a longer-term basis, Nationwide continue to point to uncertainty as it is unclear whether or not the recovery will continue to gather momentum or David O’Brien +353-1-641 9230 is the labour market will weaken as Government support is withdrawn. Regionally, the North david.a.o’[email protected] West was strongest in Q1 with prices up +8.2% yoy while London was the weakest

performing region, albeit prices were still up +4.8%. Robert Eason +353-1-641 9271 More solid UK housing data which continues to point towards the market [email protected] performing robustly on all fronts.

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Builders Merchants Momentum building through Q121

Both Topps Tiles and Norcros have released trading updates this morning. Topps Tiles David O’Brien reported on H121 while Norcros gave a brief update up to March end. What is perhaps most +353-1-641 9230 notable from both updates is that the COVID related restrictions continue to cause david.a.o’[email protected] disruptions for the more retail orientated model of Topps Tiles, whilst the trade orientated Robert Eason model of Norcros continues to perform robustly. Details below: +353-1-641 9271 [email protected] The Topps Tiles update covered the 26-week period ended March 27th. From a retail perspective, it was very much a tale of two quarters. Q1 (Oct-Dec) retail trading, as had Shane Carberry +353-1-6419118 already been reported, was extremely robust with lfls of just under 20%. However, additional [email protected] COVID related trading restrictions in in Q2 led to the closure of stores for retail customers,

significantly impacting sales growth and margins. Lfl sales growth in Q2 was down 17.3% Dudley Shanley and transacted at “lower gross margins” given the unusual skew towards trade customers +353-1-641 9174 versus homeowners and the additional costs associated with higher delivery. The group [email protected] expects a “sharp increase in sales” and a margin recovery to “normal levels” when restrictions lift in mid-April. On the commercial side of the business sales in the first half were down 10% which is labelled as a “robust performance” in what is a challenging market. It is comforting to see that management notes forward looking commercial indicators are positive and orders in hand have increased consistently over the trading period. As the economy re-opens in H2 the group expects to make good progress on this front.

Norcros (Supplier of bathroom and kitchen products) issued its second update this month having upgraded guidance already in an update on March 3rd. The group note that trading since the last update on the 3rd of March has continued to be strong right into year-end (March year-end). Despite the lockdown and supply chain disruption Norcros now expects underlying operating profit to be no less than £31m versus previously upgraded guidance of no less than £28m. This update feels very similar to the Howden update in December and January when we got two upgrades however it is of note that this update covers the period up to the end of March so trading remains strong. The strength of trading Norcos has been experiencing provides greater comfort on Howden Joinery as they release a trading update on April 29th.

A clear theme for merchants in the results season was a slow start to the year from a volume perspective. This was influenced by weather and lockdown restrictions. Management teams were upbeat on a reacceleration as we progressed through

March which encouragingly looks to be coming to fruition. This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Stockbrokers and its affiliates

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Irish Banks Reopening still slow; spending of savings patterns; sustainability plans

Ireland looks set to continue with its ultra-cautious approach to easing Covid-19 restrictions Eamonn Hughes well into May under plans announced by the Taoiseach yesterday evening. Our economics +353-1-641 9442 team provide a detailed assessment of the plan in a separate email sent out overnight, with [email protected] only modest restrictions eased for April, with the only material change being the resumption Barry Egan of residential construction activity from April 12th (a week later than expected). It looks like +353-1-641 6059 hotels and B&Bs are set to reopen in June, with around 5m vaccine doses expected to be [email protected] administered by early July. However, a clear roadmap linking reopening to tangible targets on vaccination rollout, incidence and hospital capacity, like in the UK, was not evident, which

according to our economics colleagues is disappointing. All the same, they note the narrative

should start to change in April as vaccinations start to be ramped up, so whilst we had hoped for an earlier reopening, the prospects still look good for a rapid economic rebound in H2.

On the rebound point, the Central Bank Deputy Governor presented to one of our main universities yesterday on the topic of the Diverse Effects of Covid-19 on Employment, Income & Savings. Our Economics Team look at the speech in detail, but we note the Central Bank’s research on savings patterns which suggests c.€5bn of the aggregate €11bn saved since the pandemic commenced could be spent. The remaining savings are likely to filter into house deposits, home improvement or remain as savings (or purchase of financial assets).

Finally, moving to issues of sustainability, we note an Irish Times article that Legal & General in its latest “active ownership” report said in Ireland that it voted against the boards of Kingspan, Medtronic and on issues of independence, diversity and remuneration last year while engaging with Flutter, Bank of Ireland and AIB on their climate policies. It said Bank of Ireland and AIB had “room for potential improvement in their environmental policy, credit and loan standards and the targets for their emissions” and were ranked about average among their peers when it came to tackling climate change issues.

The ongoing slow pace of reopening the economy is disappointing and for the banks means activity levels will remain muted a bit further into Q2, though indications to date show the housing market has remained relatively active with approvals growth in Q1. Indeed, the latest house price data shows asking prices rose by 7.6% in Q1 according to Daft.ie this morning (lower supply a factor) and bear in mind the banks have house price declines built into their ECL assumptions for this year. All the same, as noted by our economics team, the prospects still look good for rapid economic rebound in H2, with the potential for a ramp-up on spending patterns as evident in the Central Bank research. Beyond the This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Stockbrokers and its affiliates consumption estimates, the recognition that pandemic savings could also touch the housing market, home improvement and financial assets all play to future activity levels for the banks through lending or long-term savings potential. Finally, on sustainability, we welcome the recognition by LGIM for the climate policies of the Irish banks. We all have room for improvement, but we think the reference by LGIM that the Irish banks are ranked “about average among their peers” is a bit harsh. If anything, AIB and BOI are rated top quartile, if not higher, by various ESG and climate rating agencies which is better than “average” in our view. AIB and BOI are ranked 68 and 178 respectively out of 1,029 banks by Sustainalytics, AIB is ranked AA by MSCI whilst BOI is BB, they have SAM percentile rankings of 78% at AIB and 62% at BOI and, on climate only matters, CDP ratings of A for AIB and B for BOI. Both have signed up to science-based targets delivery, are actively partaking in TCFD and indeed AIB has committed to 70% of new lending being green by 2030. That’s better than average.

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Greencoat Renewables Seeking approval to add Solar in Ireland to the investment brief

In a statement this morning from Greencoat indicating that the company’s AGM will take Recommendation: Hold place at 9am on April 29th it was also indicated that the company intends to seek Closing Price: €1.18 shareholder approval to invest in operational solar PV assets in Ireland. Gerry Hennigan +353-1-641 9274 The current Investment Policy allows the Company to invest only in aggregate, up to 40% of [email protected] the Gross Asset Value in operational wind energy assets or operational solar PV assets in Other Relevant Countries.

The rational for the amendment is driven by the fact that Greencoat Renewables has developed relationships with many of the utilities and developers across Ireland and that including solar in Ireland would “provide the Company with the benefit of a larger pool of potential acquisition targets and facilitate the group's diversification opportunities.” As such, an amendment to extend the solar remit to Ireland makes sense, in our view, and is likely to be broadly welcomed.

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Issuer & Analyst Disclosures

Analyst Certification The named Research Analyst certifies that: (1) All of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any and all of the subject securities and issuers. (2) No part of my remuneration was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by me in this report.

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Goodbody has provided investment banking services to AIB Group, , , Bank of Ireland, Cairn Homes, Collagen Solutions, Datalex, Draper Esprit, FBD Holdings, First Derivatives, Grafton Group, Greencore, Hammerson, Harworth, Hibernia REIT, ICG, Kingspan, , Playtech, Rank Group, Supermarket Income REIT, and Yew Grove REIT in the past 12 months.

Goodbody Stockbrokers acts as corporate broker to AIB Group, ARYZTA, Cairn Homes, Datalex, Draper Esprit, FBD Holdings, First Derivatives, Grafton Group, Greencore, Hibernia REIT, ICG, Kingspan, Origin Enterprises, Playtech, Rank Group, and Yew Grove REIT The list of companies for which Goodbody acts as market maker and on which it provides research, is available at Regulatory Disclosures

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Other disclosures

We would like to inform you that Eamonn Hughes holds shares in AIB Group We would like to inform you that Dudley Shanley holds shares in Cairn Homes We would like to inform you that Dudley Shanley holds shares in Glenveagh Properties

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