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Ryanair Airlines Results season to date: ULCC’s 2 – others 0 Equity Research 25 Jul 2016 FY17 guidance unchanged Recommendation BUY Ryanair has followed Wizz from last week in leaving its FY17 guidance unchanged. Unchanged Visibility over the all important September quarter is clearer than it was for Price Target €18.15 easyJet, with 75% of its expected bookings taken as against easyJet’s 65%, giving from €16.60 RYA the ability to guide Q2 yields down ~6% vs our current forecast of -7.4%. Key Stock Data Q1 highlights why ULCC’s win in tough times Ticker: RYA ID Q1 NPAT came in 2.6% better than forecast at €256m vs our €249m estimate. Closing Price: €10.91 While yields were down 10.3% yoy (GBY est. -10.6%), pax numbers were up Market Cap / EV €14,061 / €14,532.6m 11.1%. Additionally, ex-fuel costs/pax were down 3.5% yoy (GBY est. -2.7%) Average Daily Volume 2.033m reflecting better than expected airport and route charges. RYA’s model works. Free Float 95% 52 Wk Hi/Lo €15.35 / €10.46 FY17 guidance unchanged, although we move our number up Price Perf (1m/3m/12m) -19.2% / -16.2% / -12.8% Other than adding 1m pax to its target, now 117m for the year, and firming up its Q2 yield target, Ryanair kept its other headline numbers unchanged, with H2 Ryanair Vs Factset Europe Airlines yields at -10-12% and ex-fuel costs -1%. We have adjusted our Q2 yield to -6% 16 and lifted our FY17 NPAT from €1,342m to €1,375m. FY18 is now €1,417m vs 15 14 €1,326m. This moves our target price on our FY18 base from €16.60 to €18.15. 13 12 € 11 Leading not following 10 9 RYA continues to be proactive in terms of yield and growth. It intends to cut 8 7 Stansted frequencies over the 2016/17 winter season, with a greater focus on 6 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 intra-Euro growth. On current data, it is scheduled to grow Germany by 28% yoy Ryanair Factset Europe Airlines Source: Factset in Q3 to December, while its CEE network is up 24% vs overall growth of 10%. Financial & Valuation Summary International Comparative Ratings Headline Figures Mar 16a Mar 17f Mar 18f Mar 19f Price Cal. Adj ROCE Cal. EV/EBITDAR lc 16f 17f 16f 17f Revenues (€m) 6,536 6,683 6,890 7,533 Ryanair 10.91 33% 30% 6.6 6.0 EBITDAR (€m) 2,003 2,242 2,359 2,602 Adj EPS (c) 92.1 106.0 109.2 121.4 AF-KLM 5.39 6% 6% 4.1 4.1 DPS (c) - - - - easyJet 10.27 15% 15% 5.6 5.7 Valuation Lufthansa 10.31 5% 5% 5.0 5.1 EV / EBITDAR 9.0x 6.5x 5.8x 4.9x P/E 14.2x 10.3x 10.0x 9.0x Free Cash Flow Yield 3.6% 4.3% 6.1% 7.5% Price / Adj Cap Employed 4.3x 2.9x 2.6x 2.4x Dividend Yield - - - - Balance Sheet Strength Adj Interest Cover (EBITDAR) 37.6x 28.3x 30.7x 33.9x Debt / Equity -8.7% -8.1% -20.8% -30.6% Analysts Net Debt / EBITDAe -0.2x -0.2x -0.5x -0.9x Mark Simpson Profitability +353-1-641 0478 [email protected] EBITDAR Margin 30.6% 33.6% 34.2% 34.5% Jack Diskin Adj ROCE 31.1% 33.1% 29.6% 29.4% +353-1-641 9193 ROE 32.5% 34.3% 27.6% 23.8% [email protected] Goodbody Stockbrokers (trading as Goodbody) is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. For the attention of US clients of Goodbody Securities Inc, this third-party research report has been produced by our affiliate Goodbody Stockbrokers. Please see the end of this report for analyst certifications and other important disclosures. Goodbody Ryanair Ryanair Share Price €10.90 Mkt Cap (m) €14,061 Sector Airlines Analyst Mark Simpson Recommendation Buy Avg Daily Volume 2.033m Ticker RYA ID Email [email protected] Price Target €18.15 Free float 95% Web Site www.ryanair.com Tel +353-1-641 0478 Value Drivers Mar 15a Mar 16a Mar 17f Mar 18f Mar 19f Financial Statements Mar 15a Mar 16a Mar 17f Mar 18f Mar 19f Key Operating Metrics Profit & Loss (€m) Passengers (m) 90.5 106.4 117.4 128.4 139.0 Passengers 4,260 4,967 4,989 5,079 5,536 Seat Capacity (m) 102.5 114.5 125.5 137.2 148.5 Cargo - - - - - Load factor (%) 88.3% 92.9% 93.5% 93.6% 93.6% Ancillary/Others 1,394 1,569 1,695 1,811 1,997 Traffic Revenue per pax 62.5 61.4 56.9 53.7 54.2 Sales 5,654 6,536 6,683 6,890 7,533 Passenger Rev/Seat 41.55 43.37 39.76 37.01 37.27 Fuel -1,992 -2,071 -1,804 -1,717 -1,943 Ancillary/Other Rev per seat 13.59 13.70 13.50 13.20 13.44 Labour costs -503 -585 -639 -700 -763 Total Rev/Seat 55.14 57.06 53.26 50.21 50.72 Airport & route costs -1,260 -1,454 -1,526 -1,627 -1,712 Op. Cost/Seat -44.97 -44.31 -40.18 -37.92 -38.15 Engineering costs -135 -130 -154 -164 -174 ex-Fuel Cost/Seat -25.54 -26.23 -25.80 -25.41 -25.07 Other operating costs -234 -293 -319 -323 -339 US$/t Hedged fuel cost 950 898 622 496 - EBITDAR 1,530 2,003 2,242 2,359 2,602 % Hedged 90% 92% 95% 55% - Lease Costs -109 -115 -111 -118 -117 US$/€ spot fuel cost 815 452 470 500 530 Depreciation & amortisation -378 -427 -490 -554 -618 FX: US$/€ 1.33 1.31 1.18 1.10 1.10 EBIT 1,043 1,460 1,641 1,687 1,866 FX: Stg£/€ 1.27 1.33 1.16 1.06 1.05 Net Financial Charge -56 -53 -79 -77 -77 Other Financial Items -4 -3 - - - Per Share Data - c PBT 982 1,404 1,562 1,610 1,790 Adj EPS 62.5 92.1 106.0 109.2 121.4 Tax -116 -163 -187 -193 -215 DPS 37.6 - - - - Minority Interests - - - - - Dividend cover 1.7x n/m n/m n/m n/m Discontinued Operations - - - - - No. of Shares (m) 1,385 1,341 1,289 1,289 1,289 Exceptional Items - 318 - - - Momentum PAT 867 1,559 1,375 1,417 1,575 Sales 12.3% 15.6% 2.3% 3.1% 9.3% EBITDAR 37.6% 30.9% 12.0% 5.2% 10.3% NOPAT 952 1,324 1,477 1,519 1,676 EBIT 58.4% 40.0% 12.4% 2.8% 10.6% Cashflow Statement (€m) Adj EPS 72.9% 47.4% 15.1% 3.1% 11.2% EBIT 1,043 1,460 1,641 1,687 1,866 DPS n/a -100.0% n/a n/a n/a Depeciation 378 427 490 554 618 Free Cashflow 82.2% -29.9% -4.2% 41.6% 23.0% Change in Working Capital 372 167 41 68 211 NAV 28.0% -8.0% 27.7% 32.1% 27.0% Other Operating Cashflows 42 -25 1 1 1 Profitability Metrics Operating Cashflow 1,834 2,030 2,173 2,309 2,696 EBITDAR margin 27.1% 30.6% 33.6% 34.2% 34.5% Net Interest -56 -53 -79 -77 -77 EBIT margin 18.4% 22.3% 24.6% 24.5% 24.8% Tax Paid -88 -128 -187 -193 -215 Adj ROCE 23.0% 31.1% 33.1% 29.6% 29.4% Capex -789 -1,218 -1,282 -1,183 -1,351 ROE 23.7% 32.5% 34.3% 27.6% 23.8% Other Items - - -20 - - - Asset Turnover - x 1.7x 1.9x 1.8x 1.6x 1.5x Free Cashflow 901 631 605 857 1,054 - PAT Margin - % 15.3% 19.0% 20.6% 20.6% 20.9% Dividends Paid -520 - - - - - Leverage - x 0.9x 0.9x 0.9x 0.8x 0.7x Acquisitions - - - - - Disposals - 398 - - - Balance Sheet Metrics Changes in Share Cap -98 -1,103 -557 - - Debt / Equity -9.0% -8.7% -8.1% -20.8% -30.6% FX Translation - - - - - Adj Net Debt / EBITDAR 0.3x 0.2x 0.2x -0.2x -0.6x Other -78 21 - - - Adj Interest Cover (EBITDAR) 27.2x 37.6x 28.3x 30.7x 33.9x Mvt in Net Debt 205 -53 48 857 1,054 Capex / Depreciation 208.8% 285.0% 261.6% 213.6% 218.4% Balance Sheet (€m) Cashflow Metrics Net Tangible Assets 5,471 6,262 7,073 7,702 8,435 Operating Cashflow per share 132.5 151.3 168.6 179.1 209.1 Goodwill - - - - - Free Cashflow per share 65.1 47.1 46.9 66.4 81.7 Other Net Intangible Assets 47 47 47 47 47 Cashflow Conversion 100.8% 49.4% 44.0% 60.5% 66.9% Financial Assets 926 89 89 89 89 FCF Yield (Mkt Cap) 8.0% 3.6% 4.3% 6.1% 7.5% Total Fixed Assets 6,443 6,397 7,209 7,838 8,570 Enterprise Value Stock 2 3 3 3 4 Market Capitalisation 11,311 17,508 14,061 14,061 14,061 Debtors 60 66 68 70 76 Capitalised Leases 738 786 775 827 819 Creditors -197 -231 -229 -236 -257 Net Debt -262 -338 -359 -1,216 -2,270 Working Capital -134 -161 -158 -163 -177 Pension 1 - - - - Other Liabilities -2,638 -2,950 -2,994 -3,057 -3,254 Minorities - - - - - Capital Employed 3,671 3,285 4,056 4,617 5,139 Adj Enterprise Value 11,788 17,956 14,477 13,672 12,610 Shareholders Funds 4,035 3,597 4,415 5,833 7,408 Valuation Net Debt -364 -312 -359 -1,216 -2,270 PE 13.1x 14.2x 10.3x 10.0x 9.0x Minorities - - - - - EV / EBITDAR 7.7x 9.0x 6.5x 5.8x 4.9x Net Pension - - - - - Dividend Yield 4.6% - - - - Capital Employed 3,671 3,285 4,056 4,617 5,139 Price / NAV 2.8x 4.9x 3.2x 2.4x 1.9x EV / Adj Cap Employed 2.5x 4.3x 2.9x 2.6x 2.4x Capitalised Leases 766 806 775 827 819 Price / Adj Cap Employed 2.5x 4.3x 2.9x 2.6x 2.4x Adj Capital Employed 4,437 4,091 4,831 5,444 5,957 Share Price Performance 1mth 3mth 6mth YTD 12mth Key Dates Share Price Movement -19.2% -16.2% -24.3% -27.3% -12.8% Last Report 14/07/2016 Ex Final Div n/a vs Factset Europe Airlines 4.2% 10.2% 6.2% 8.4% 20.7% 25/07/2016 Ex Interim Div n/a Forecast Change Next Update n/a Page 2 25 Jul.