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CHINA’S STOCKMARKET OTHER ECONOMIST BOOKS Guide to Analysing Companies Guide to Business Modelling Guide to Economic Indicators Guide to the European Union Guide to Financial Markets Guide to Management Ideas Numbers Guide Style Guide Business Ethics Economics E-Commerce E-Trends Globalisation Measuring Business Performance Successful Innovation Successful Mergers Wall Street Dictionary of Business Dictionary of Economics International Dictionary of Finance Essential Director Essential Finance Essential Internet Essential Investment Pocket Asia Pocket Europe in Figures Pocket World in Figures CHINA’S STOCKMARKET A Guide to its Progress, Players and Prospects Stephen Green To my family and friends THE ECONOMIST IN ASSOCIATION WITH PROFILE BOOKS LTD Published by Profile Books Ltd 3a Exmouth House, Pine Street, London ec1r 0jh Copyright © The Economist Newspaper Ltd 2003 Text copyright © Stephen Green 2003 All rights reserved. Without limiting the rights under copyright reserved above, no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in or introduced into a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise), without the prior written permission of both the copyright owner and the publisher of this book. The greatest care has been taken in compiling this book. However, no responsibility can be accepted by the publishers or compilers for the accuracy of the information presented. Where opinion is expressed it is that of the author and does not necessarily coincide with the editorial views of The Economist Newspaper. Typeset in EcoType by MacGuru [email protected] Printed in Great Britain by Creative Print and Design (Wales), Ebbw Vale A CIP catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library ISBN 1 86197 665 8 Contents List of figures vii List of tables viii Acknowledgements x Preface xiii 1 Introduction 1 Economic reform in China 2 Why is a stockmarket important? 3 China’s stockmarket 4 Opening up to the world 6 2 A brief history of China’s stockmarket 9 The shareholding reforms, 1984–89 9 Setting up the stock exchanges, 1989–90 11 Stockmarket fever, 1992–93 12 Two dull years and a scandal, 1994–95 18 A promising but false start, 1996–97 21 Growth with the csrc in charge, 1998–2002 23 China’s stockmarket today 26 China’s stockmarket and the world 32 China’s bond market 36 3 Foreign investors and Chinese equity: the B- and H-share markets 46 China’s path to financial globalisation 47 The B-share market 50 Overseas share issuance 56 P-chip fever 64 4 The investors 70 Individual share investors 71 Securities companies 78 Trust and investment companies 98 Investment funds 100 Insurance and pension funds 109 Asset management companies 113 The development of financial conglomerates 114 5 The listed companies 118 The ownership problem 118 v Performance of listed companies 125 False disclosures and the problem with accountants 135 Improving listed companies 141 Listing of private companies 151 6 The regulatory framework 154 Local government regulation, 1990–97 154 The csrc in charge, 1998– 160 Regulation of the primary market 160 Regulation of the secondary market 164 Why is regulation so poor? 168 7 Re-regulation and the future of China’s stockmarket 170 Why China’s stockmarket will improve 171 Improvements in regulation, 2001–02 182 Improving listed companies 184 Allowing the courts to play a role in regulation 189 Improving oversight of the regulator 192 Making non-tradable shares tradable 193 8 Foreign investors’ entry: the prospects and the dangers 199 The implications for foreign investors of WTO membership 199 Listing of foreign companies and acquisition of Mainland companies 206 The qualified foreign institutional investor framework 209 A link with Hong Kong: the qualified domestic institutional investor framework 211 The future 212 Appendices 215 1 Abbreviations 217 2 Chinese terms 219 3 Glossary 224 4 Chronology of events 239 5 Recommended reading 251 6 Useful website addresses 255 7 References 257 vi List of figures 2.1 Tradable shares as a proportion of total shares, year-end 1998 17 2.2 Floating shares, 2000 18 2.3 Domestic listed companies (A- and B-shares), 1990–2002 27 2.4 Total raised capital from domestic and overseas share issuance, 1991–2002 27 2.5 Stockmarket and bank financing compared, 1993–2002 29 2.6 Stamp tax collected by the government, 1993–2002 30 2.7 The world’s largest stockmarkets, year-end 2001 33 2.8 Emerging markets’ listed companies, year-end 2001 33 2.9 Largest emerging countries’ stockmarkets, year-end 2001 34 2.10 The largest stockmarkets in Asia, year-end 2001 34 2.11 China’s stockmarkets compared with other transitional states’ stockmarkets, year-end 2001 35 2.12 Average size of a listed company, year-end 2001 36 2.13 Domestic Treasury-bond issuance, 1981–2002 38 2.14 Corporate bond issuance, 1992–2002 41 3.1 China’s different share categories, March 2002 48 3.2 Capital raised from initial public offerings in the A- and B- share markets, 1991–2002 51 3.3 Number of companies making B-share ipos, 1992–2002 51 4.1 The growth of share accounts, 1993–2002 71 4.2 The 15 largest companies, year-end 2001 79 4.3 Types of securities companies, year-end 1998 81 4.4 Income of an average large securities company, 2000 84 4.5 Top ten underwriting securities companies, 2001 91 4.6 Trading volume of investment funds, 1994–2002 104 5.1 The capital structure of listed companies, 2002 119 5.2 Companies controlled by internal lps or state shareholder, 1992–99 120 5.3 Listed companies’ financial results, 1991–2001 128 5.4 Preferential tax treatment at listed companies, year-end 2000 131 5.5 Companies not distributing any form of dividend, 1995–99 132 5.6 Acquisitions of listed companies, 1996–2002 144 6.1 Returns on investment in the ipo lottery, 1997–2002 163 7.1 Estimates of the government’s total liabilities, 2002 178 vii List of tables 2.1 China’s share categories 16 2.2 Stockmarket collapse, 2001–02 25 2.3 Stockmarket capitalisation, 1992–2002 28 2.4 Selected p/es from around the world, October 2001 30 2.5 Variations in the one-year household deposit savings rate, May 1996–March 2002 31 2.6 Enterprise bond issuance, 1990–97 42 2.7 China’s corporate bond market, end-2002 43 2.8 China’s convertible bond market, end-2002 45 3.1 Capital raised from equity issuance abroad and fdi, 1991–2002 49 3.2 B-share mid-year results, 2000–01 53 3.3 Distribution of China’s foreign-listed shares, March 2002 56 3.4 Non-United States companies listed on the nyse, June 2002 61 3.5 Mainland China adrs, June 2002 62 3.6 Red-chip adrs, June 2002 63 3.7 UBS Warburg’s p-chip index in 2002 65 3.8 P/Es of select firms listed at home and abroad, year-end 2001 68 4.1 Regional distribution of investors at the Shanghai Stock Exchange, year-end 2001 74 4.2 The location of China’s securities companies, year-end 1999 77 4.3 Securities companies brokerages in the ten largest provinces, year-end 1999 78 4.4 Profits of 89 securities companies, 1999–2001 80 4.5 Top three securities companies in each sector, 2001 85 4.6 Securities companies with the largest brokerage outlet network, year-end 2000 86 4.7 Top ten securities companies in the brokerage business, 2001 87 4.8 Brokerage commissions across Asia, 2000 88 4.9 Top ten securities companies with funds under management from listed companies, year-end 2001 92 4.10 Assets of China securities companies and international investment banks, year-end 1999 95 4.11 Breakdown of the income of three international investment banks, 1999 95 4.12 Breakdown of the income of three large Mainland securities firms, 1999 96 viii LIST OF TABLES 4.13 China’s fund management companies and their shareholders, year-end 2001 102 4.14 Investment management companies, year-end 2001 103 4.15 Market capitalisation of formal funds and simu jijin, year-end 2000 108 5.1 Ownership of listed companies, year-end 2000 118 5.2 How directors were appointed at listed companies, 1996–99 122 5.3 Salaries of senior management, year-end 1999 122 5.4 Where do the most important and most frequent disputes take place? 124 5.5 Listed companies’ results, 2001 127 5.6 Losses of listed companies, 1994–2001 128 5.7 Capital raised in initial and rights A-share offerings, 1993–2002 130 5.8 Cash dividends, 1994–99 132 5.9 Loans to major shareholders, year-end 2001 134 5.10 How believable are listed companies’ reports? 136 5.11 Asset restructuring of listed companies, 1997–2001 142 5.12 Income per share of companies undergoing a change in the controlling shareholder, 2001 145 5.13 How control at listed companies changed, 2001 146 5.14 Average annual growth of total factor productivity 153 6.1 Industry breakdown of issuance to firms, 2001 162 6.2 What hurts you most? 165 7.1 NPLs and the fiscal cost of restructuring the financial sector in financial crisis 179 7.2 The capacity of the market: IPOs as a proportion of GDP, 1997–2002 180 7.3 Estimates of demand for stockmarket funds, 2002 180 7.4 Estimates of funds becoming available in 2002 181 8.1 Prospective joint-venture fund management partners, year-end 2001 205 ix Acknowledgements o build a stockmarket worth over $200bn in the space of some 12 Tyears is a remarkable achievement.
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