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Cortese Ignacio EGI 2017-0078-MSC EKV1203 Comparison of Utility-scale Solar Power Generation Technologies in Yunnan Province, China Ignacio Cortese Master of Science Thesis KTH School of Industrial Engineering and Management Energy Technology EGI_2017-0078 MCS EKV1203 SE-100 44 STOCKHOLM Examensarbete EGI_2017-0078 MCS EKV1203 Jämförelse av storskalig energi genererad av solkraft i Yunnan-provinsen, Kina Ignacio Cortese Godkänt Examinator Handledare 2017-mån-dag Björn Laumert Rafael Guédez Uppdragsgivare Kontaktperson Zhejiang University Yu Zitao Wang Ziyuan Sammanfattning Arbetet ger en jämförelse mellan två tekniker för solenergi, nämligen fotovoltaisk (photovoltaic, PV) och koncentrerad solenergi (concentrated solar power, CSP) för olika praktiska fall i den kinesiska provinsen Yunnan. Jämförelsen inkluderar kostnaden för variation i kraftproduktion inom projektekonomin för att göra en rättvis jämförelse mellan alternativen. I sin användning, hybridiseras CSP med fossila bränslen (CSP) medan PV kombineras med ett batteri (PV + B), med en förbränningsmotorgeneratorsats (PV + E) eller med en överföringsledning till en robust nätförbindelse där transportkapaciteten kan antas obegränsad (PV + T). Inledningsvis, definierades åtta potentiella fall baserat på närhet till en robust nätinfrastruktur, tillgång till naturgas, samt bostads- eller industriella behovsprofiler. Platser hittades i Yunnanprovinsen för sju av de åtta potentiella fallen. Typiska meteorologiska väderprofiler för ett år erhölls för dessa platser. Profiler för industriella- och bostadsbehov byggdes för jämförelsen. Den efterfrågade toppkraften antogs vara 10 MW och nettovikten motsvarar de typiska profilerna. Därefter valdes huvudkomponenterna för varje typ av kraftverk. Tekno-ekonomiska parametrar och skalningsvariabler beräknades baserat på litteraturforskning och beräkningar. Dessa variabler omfattade, bland annat, förluster och effektivitet, kapitalkostnader per kvadratmeter och utsläpp per installerad megawatt. Slutligen simulerades olika CSP- och PV-solfältstorlekar i System Advisor Model (SAM) på varje plats och en Excel-baserad modell byggdes för att leverera de ekonomiska, utsläpps- och energiprestanda för varje tekniskt alternativ baserat på interpolering av SAM:s output. SAM-modellen matades med väderfilerna och solfältparametrarna medan den Excel-baserade modellen inkorporerade väderinformationen, SAM:s output, behovsprofiler och techno-ekonomiska parametrar som inte hörde till solfältet. Läsarna måste vara medvetna att resultaten är endast tillämpliga på de valda platserna, i Yunnanprovinsen och nätkontexten och att antaganden om import och otillräcklig efterfrågan kan överskatta prestandan för PV-teknik. De viktigaste slutsatserna är att (i) om stor transportkapacitet finns i närheten, är det ekonomiska resultatet för PV och fossila bränslen likartade, även om billig naturgas är tillgänglig; (ii) PV i kombination med en förbränningsmotor är ekonomisk överlägsen över en bränslekostnad på 8,09 - 14,35 $ / GJ; (iii) ett solfält är nödvändigt för att ersätta diesel som ett klokt finansiellt val på de flesta platser; (iv) en minimivärdering av ~ 300 $ / MWh är nödvändig för att motivera batterilagring, och i så fall kan överdimensioneringen av PV-fältet ersätta batterier för att leverera samma ekonomi; (v) PV + T med ett fält av 9 till 11 MWdc är det bästa alternativet i nästan alla fall med bränslekostnad över 3,67 $ / GJ, om avståndet är mindre än ~ 80 (8,09 $ / GJ), ~ 210 (14,35 $ / GJ) och ~ 360 kilometer (22,86 $ / GJ), beroende på bränslepriset; (vi) PV + E överträffar konsekvent CSP. Dess idealiska PV-fältstorlek ligger mellan 16-25 MWac beroende på bränslekostnaden; (vii) PV + T och PV + B visar låga utsläpp och hög energiåtervinning på Energi Return On Energy Invested (EROEI) medan CSP och PV + E visar höga utsläpp och sällan återvinner den energi som investeras i dem; (viii) trots PV + B aldrig är bland de sundaste ekonomiska alternativen, fungerar det alltid bättre än CSP i utsläpp och EROEI och det är mer ekonomiskt i solaktier över 70%; (ix) PV + B kan leverera upp till 90% av efterfrågan till en rimlig kostnad. Master of Science Thesis EGI_2017-0078-MCS EKV1203 Comparison of Utility-scale Solar Power Generation Technologies in Yunnan Province, China Ignacio Cortese Approved Examiner Supervisor 2017-month-day Björn Laumert Rafael Guédez Commissioner Contact person Zhejiang University Yu Zitao Wang Ziyuan Abstract The present work delivers a comparison between two solar power technologies, namely photovoltaic (PV) and concentrated solar power (CSP), for various practical cases in the Chinese province of Yunnan. The comparison includes the cost of power generation variability in the project economics to make a fair comparison between the alternatives. In their use, CSP is hybridized with fossil fuels (CSP) whereas PV is combined with a battery pack (PV+B), with an internal combustion engine generator set (PV+E) or with a transmission line to a robust grid connection where transport capacity may be assumed unlimited (PV+T). Initially, eight potential cases were defined based on their proximity to a robust grid infrastructure, availability of natural gas, and residential or industrial electrical demand profiles. Locations were found in Yunnan province for seven out of the eight potential cases. Typical meteorological year weather files were obtained for these locations. Industrial and residential demand profiles were built for the comparison. The peak power demand to be satisfied was assumed 10 MW and the net load equal to the typical profiles. Thereafter, the main components of each type of power plant were selected. Based on literature search and calculations, techno-economic parameters and scaling variables were calculated. These included, among others, losses and efficiencies, capital costs per square meter and emissions per installed megawatt. Finally, various CSP and PV solar field sizes were simulated in System Advisor Model (SAM) at each location and an Excel-based model was built to deliver the economic, emissions and energy performances of each technological alternative based on the interpolation of SAM’s output. SAM model was fed with the weather files and the solar field parameters, while the Excel-based developed model incorporated some of the weather information, SAM’s output, demand profiles and techno-economic parameters which did not belong to the solar field. Readers must be aware that the results are only applicable to the selected sites, in the Yunnan province and grid context and that assumptions on imports and unsupplied demand might overestimate the performance of PV technologies. The main conclusions are that: (i) if large transport capacity is available in the vicinity, PV and fossil fuel alternatives economic performances are similar, even if low-cost natural gas is available; (ii) PV in combination with an internal combustion engine makes economic sense above a fuel cost of 8.09 - 14.35 $/GJ; (iii) a solar thermal field is required to replace diesel to be a wise financial election in most locations; (iv) a minimum valuation of ~300 $/MWh is needed to justify battery storage and, in this case, the over dimensioning of the PV field can replace batteries to deliver the same economics; (v) PV+T with a 9 to 11 MWdc field is the best alternative in almost all cases with fuel cost above 3.67 $/GJ, if the distance less than ~80 (8.09 $/GJ), ~210 (14.35 $/GJ) and ~360 kilometers (22.86 $/GJ), depending on the fuel price; (vi) PV+E consistently outperforms CSP, and its ideal PV field size is between 16-25 MWac, depending on the fuel cost; (vii) PV+T and PV+B show low emissions and high Energy Return On Energy Invested (EROEI) while CSP and PV+E show high emissions and rarely recover the energy invested in them; (viii) despite PV+B is never among the soundest economic alternatives, it always performs better than CSP in emissions and EROEI, and it is more economic in solar shares above ~70%; (ix) PV+B can supply up to 90% of the demand at a reasonable cost. 分类号： TK16 单位代码： 10335 密 级： Public 学 号： 21627127 硕士学位论文 中文论文文文题目目目:目::: 中国云南省大型太阳阳阳能阳能能能发电技技技术比比比较 英 文 论 文文文 题 目目目::: Comparison of utility-scale solar power generation technologies in Yunnan province, China 申申申请人姓名：：：Ignacio Cortese 指指指导教教教师：：：俞自涛 教授///博/博博博导 合作导师：：：钟崴崴崴 专业名称：：：能源：能源环境工程 研究方向：：：太：太太太阳阳阳能利用 所在学院：能源工程学院 论文提交日期期期 2017 年年年 8 月月月 硕士学位论文 Master’s Degree Thesis Report Thesis Title: Comparison of utility -scale solar power generation technologies in Yunnan province, China 姓名 Ignacio Cortese 学号 21627127 学科、、、专业 能源环境工程 指导教师 俞自涛 教授/博导 所在学院 能源工程学院 提交日期 2017 年 8 月 中国云南省大型太阳阳阳能阳能能能发电技技技术比比比较 论论论文作者论文作者签签签名签名名名:::: 指指指导指导导导教教教教师签师签名名名:名::: 论文评阅人 1： 评阅人 2： 评阅人 3： 评阅人 4： 评阅人 5： 答辩委员会主席： 委员1： 委员2： 委员3： 委员4： 委员5： 答辩日期： Comparison of utility-scale solar power generation technologies in Yunnan province, China Author’s signature: Supervisor’ s signature: Reviewers: Examining Committee Members: Date of oral defense ： 浙江大学研究生学位论文独创性声明 本人声明所呈交的学位论文是本人在导师指导下进行的研究工作及取得的研究成 果。除了文中特别加以标注和致谢的地方外，论文中不包含其他人已经发表或撰写过的 研究成果，也不包含为获得 浙江大学 或其他教育机构的学位或证书而使用过的材料。 与我一同工作的同志对本研究所做的任何贡献均已在论文中作了明确的说明并表示谢 意。 学位论文作者签名： 签字日期： 年 月 日 学位论文版权使用授权书 本学位论文作者完全了解 浙江大学 有权保留并向国家有关部门或机构送交 本论文的复印件和磁盘，允许论文被查阅和借阅。本人授权 浙江大学 可以将学位论 文的全部或部分内容编入有关数据库进行检索和传播，可以采用影印、缩印或扫描等复 制手段保存、汇编学位论文。 （保密的学位论文在解密后适用本授权书） 学位论文作者签名： 导师签名： 签字日期： 年 月 日 签字日期： 年 月 日 Zhejiang University Master Thesis Acknowledgments I wish to thank, first and foremost, my family and friends who have supported me during this process and Sweden and The People’s Republic of China that have warmly
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