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Summary 1. Food Availability Eritrea Food Security Update: September

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Summary 1. Food Availability Eritrea Food Security Update: September Eritrea Food Security Update: September 15, 2000 Summary Good to heavy rains fell during the first dekad of August in the agriculturally productive areas of southern Zoba Gash Barka and all of Zoba Debub. These rains continued into the second and third dekads along the southern border, although their usefulness for crops will be lost this year due to the large number of occupied or abandoned farms. Many interior areas received 100- 200 mm of rainfall during August, below or near normal levels. Vegetation conditions were expected to improve towards the end of August and early September due to August rainfall. Low rainfall in northern Zoba Gash Barka and Zoba Anseba will reduce grazing possibilities for livestock. It is too early to predict crop production levels. However, all indicators point to lower production this year than in 1999 when Eritrea produced an estimated 318,828 MT of cereals and 7,700 MT of pulses. Poor production, coupled with the mass population displacement caused by the war, will aggravate the food security situation during the coming year, not only for IDPs, but the total population. Food commodity prices continue to climb, reflecting seasonal increases and wartime scarcities. As of mid-August, food supplies in the Eritrean Relief and Refugee Commission (ERREC) warehouses stood at 46,391 MT, compared to needs of 144,950 MT for the period of August- December. New deliveries are expected to replenish supplies and the stock situation is considered manageable. ERREC has reduced its estimate of the number of Eritreans fleeing to Sudan in May when the fighting resumed, from 95,000 to about 50,000. Nearly half of these refugees had returned to Eritrea by the end of August. A small percentage of the 1.1 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) have returned to their home villages. 1. Food Availability 1.1. Rainfall and Vegetation Conditions Satellite imagery from METEOSAT in Figure 1 indicates that good to heavy rains fell during the first dekad of August in the agriculturally productive areas of southern Zoba Gash Barka and all of Zoba Debub. These rains continued into the second and third dekads along the southern border, although their usefulness for crops will be lost this year due to the large number of occupied or abandoned farms. Zoba Makel also recorded good rains during the first dekad. Only the highland areas of parts Zoba Anseba received good rains while the rest received low rainfall. The extent and volume of rainfall generally receded by the third dekad of August, except the good to heavy rains that fell in Zoba Gash Barka along the border with Ethiopia. August 1-10,Figure 2000 1: METEOSAT DerivedAugust 11-20, Rainfall 2000 Estimates for AugustAugust 21-31, 2000 2000 FEWS NET/Eritrea Source: NOAA Many interior areas received 100-200 mm of rainfall during August, below or near normal levels. As shown in Figure 2, rainfall in August this year was considerably lower than levels last year in most reporting weather stations. Figure 2. Comparison of August Rainfall in Key Locations in Eritrea: 350 300 250 200 Millimeters150 100 1999 and 2000 50 0 FEWS NET/Eritrea Source: MinistryAsmar of Agriculturea During the first dekad of August, vegetative conditions ranged between sparse and very sparse in most of the country. WithAdi the Cai exceptionh of few pocket areas in sub-zobas Guluge, Lalay Gash, in Zoba Gash Barka and Mai Mne, Adi Quala and Tsorena in Zoba Debub that showed medium vegetation, the rest of the country had sparse vegetation growth. Similar conditions continued during the second dekad whereAdi medium Quala vegetation cover increased in areas of sub- Mendefera Keren 1999 2000 Elabered Afabet Nakfa Agordat Barentu Tessenei Goluge zobas Guluge, Lalay Gash in Zoba Gash Barka; sub-zobas Adi Quala, Mendefera, Mai Aini, Debarwa in Zoba Debub and all of Zoba Makel. Vegetation conditions started showing some improvements towards the end of August due to the rainfall during the last dekad of July and August. Heavier rainfall during the second and third dekads of August is expected to improve the browsing and grazing possibilities in September. It is unclear whether these rains will have a measurable or beneficial impact on crop performance given that the growing season is already half over. 1.2. Crop Production A number of factors make crop production prospects look bleak for Eritrea this year. The major factor is the late onset of the kremti seasonal rains. Another contributing factor is the reduction in area sown due to the continued occupation of part of the main farming areas by Ethiopian forces. Labor constraints are a third factor. Although the Eritrean government provided tractors for plowing during the planting period, the lack of farm labor for weeding at critical moments will result in diminished yields. It is too early to predict the crop production levels. However, all indicators point to lower production this year than in 1999 when Eritrea produced an estimated 318,828 MT of cereals and 7,700 MT of pulses and possibly lower than average (1992-99) levels, estimated at 193,751 MT of cereals and 4,125 MT of pulses. Poor production, coupled with the mass population displacement caused by the war, will aggravate the food security situation in Eritrea for the coming year, not only for the IDPs but the total population. 1.3. Livestock In addition to livestock losses in the occupied areas of Eritrea, livestock have to compete for insufficient grazing land. Satellite imagery (not shown) indicates that vegetation is poor in most parts of Zobas Gash Barka and Anseba where most of the livestock are found. While poor vegetation has adversely affected agro-pastoralists residing in these areas, pasture conditions are expected to improve as a result of August rainfall. 2. Food Accessibility 2.1. Markets With more than 50% of the population displaced and dependent on relief assistance, markets are not functioning normally. Because about half people have lost most of their assets, they do not have extra money to buy non-essential items. Even for those who can afford to buy, commodity prices are getting more expensive. For instance, Table 1 shows the price increases of some commodities between March and August 2000 in Akurdet in Zoba Gash Barka. These are typical of price increases around the country. Table 1. Comparison of Market Prices in Akurdet, Zoba Gash Barka March and August 2000 (Prices in Nakfa) March 2000 August 2000 % change Wheat flour/100 kgs 350 400 14 Sorghum/100 kgs 235 350 49 Beef/kg 17 24 41 Goat male/head 145 200 38 Goat female/head 193 310 61 Source: Ministry of Industry Price increases range from 14% to 61% over a period of six months. These increases reflect normal seasonal price rises in addition to scarcities often seen in wartime economies. As reported previously, the market price collection mechanism is not functioning well because of manpower shortages. Efforts are being made by the concerned ministries to resume price collection as soon as possible. 2.2. Food Status and Flows Table 2 shows the supply of food in Eritrean Relief and Refugee Commission (ERREC) warehouses as of August 17. Stocks on hand are sufficient to meet immediate-term needs, except for edible oil and pulses whose supplies cover one month or less. New deliveries are expected to replenish supplies and the stock situation is considered manageable. Table 2. Food Stocks held by ERREC as of mid-August 2000 Monthly needs Total Needs for Available in Months of (MT) Aug.- Dec. (MT) stock (MT) Coverage Cereals 23,010 115,050 38,165 1.7 Pulses 1,994 9,970 2,666 1.3 Edible oil 1,496 7,480 1,171 0.8 Salt 250 1,250 263 1.1 Sugar 997 4,985 1,598 1.6 DMK/CSB 997 4,985 2,037 2.0 Biscuits 246 1,230 491 2.0 Total 28,990 144,950 46,391 1.6 Source: ERREC 3. Targeting and Response Planning 3.1. Vulnerable Groups The basic numbers of vulnerable groups/beneficiaries remain the same at 1,662,000. During August, approximately 3,000 IDPs were reported to be moving away from their villages near the border towards Foro. A new camp has been set up south of Foro for 400 IDPs. The flow of people from occupied territories near Senafe to Alba and Harena IDP camps s continues. ERREC now estimates the number of Eritreans who fled to Sudan after the resumption of conflict and occupation of their villages in May is closer to 50,000 and not 95,000,as previously reported. About 24,000 have returned to their country under the Voluntary Repatriation Program with assistance from the UNHCR. New volunteers are repatriated once a week. 3.2. Humanitarian Appeals and International Assistance The response to the ERREC's $1.83 million appeal made in May has been very discouraging with only the Italian government pledging $20 million thus far. The number of international NGOs that want to work in Eritrea now reaches 31, all registered with ERREC. .
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