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The sense of pluralistic ignorance in climate change Michelsen Kjeldahl, Esther; Hendricks, Vincent Fella

Published in: EMBO Reports

DOI: 10.15252/embr.201847185

Publication date: 2018

Document version Publisher's PDF, also known as Version of record

Document license: Other

Citation for published version (APA): Michelsen Kjeldahl, E., & Hendricks, V. F. (2018). The sense of social influence: pluralistic ignorance in climate change. EMBO Reports, 19(11), 5-10. https://doi.org/10.15252/embr.201847185

Download date: 02. Oct. 2021 Science & Society

The sense of social influence: pluralistic ignorance in climate change Social factors play key roles in human behavior. Individuals tend to underestimate how much others worry about climate change. This may inhibit them from taking climate action

Esther Michelsen Kjeldahl & Vincent F Hendricks

e have been aware of the threat officials need to have a really good under- to reduce emissions are insignificant and of anthropogenic climate change standing of the social context to better rather costly on a personal level, unless W caused by the production of understand vaccine scares and why people everyone else cooperates as well. On the greenhouse gasses for more than 50 years. refuse vaccines”. Reason and rationality are other hand, if everyone else took action to Yet, emissions continue to increase at an not the only driving forces for understanding reduce emissions, the problem is solved, so alarming rate, resulting in dangerously high collective attitudes and . We also from an individual perspective, it is also a

levels of CO2 in the Earth’s atmosphere. Our need to consider aspects such as social pres- waste of effort to comply. Hence, the theory meager response is a puzzling phenomenon sure and the sense of social influence. suggests that, irrespective of the actions of given what we stand to lose. It is apparent ...... others, it is irrational for individuals to that something is holding us back from “ reduce their personal carbon emissions or to making a serious effort to adjust our carbon- Research shows that participate in political campaigns or social intensive behavior. individuals tend to misjudge movements that put pressure on, for ...... others’ beliefs about climate instance, businesses or policymakers [for a “ change.” philosophical account, see Gardiner (2001), Merely focusing on stimulating ...... recommended reading]. It has been individuals’ motivation for suggested that people need more or better changing behavior—whether be A well-known psychological explanation, education on climate change, or need to known as the theory, understand their moral duty to reduce emis- it psychological, economic, or suggests that individuals tend to adjust their sions, in order to motivate more climate- moral—may prove ineffective if beliefs rather than change their behavior friendly actions [for instance, see Shapiro, there are other social forces once they become aware their behavior and Rooney-Varga & Niepold (2017) and involved as well.” beliefs are in conflict. This can be observed Hedberg (2018), recommended reading]...... where individuals have strong anti-vaccine However, it seems clear there are more sentiments. It can also be applied to climate complex social phenomena in play as well. Indeed, our collective failure to compre- change, where the theory predicts that indi- ...... hensively respond to climate change is not viduals prefer to adapt their beliefs and atti- the only issue that appears in conflict with a tudes concerning climate change rather than “Being able to travel all over broad scientific consensus. For example, change their carbon-intensive behavior. the world, buy new things, and recent studies show that a growing number Such rearrangements include denying or so on, used to be regarded as of parents are applying for exemptions due doubting climate science, arguing that one’s to social pressure from other parents with personal emissions are too insignificant to an absolutely positive thing. strong anti-vaccine sentiments, despite the make a difference, blaming “America” and But much has changed since fact that routine childhood vaccines save “China”, arguing that global warming is not 1959.” thousands of lives every year [see Oraby, as bad as scientists say, and engaging in ...... Thampi & Bauch (2014), recommended wishful thinking [for instance, see Stoknes reading]. It is easy to dismiss such behaviors (2015), recommended reading]. What the above explanations have in as irrational. However as C. T. Bauch, one Another explanation is that climate common is an emphasis on the way individ- of the researchers of the quoted study, change is essentially a tragedy of the uals perceive and handle facts about climate notes: “Our research suggests that health commons. The idea is that individual efforts change. Yet, merely focusing on stimulating

Center for and Bubble Studies, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark. E-mail: [email protected] DOI 10.15252/embr.201847185 | EMBO Reports (2018) 19:e47185 | Published online 22 October 2018

ª 2018 The Authors EMBO reports 19:e47185 | 2018 1 of 5 EMBO reports Pluralistic ignorance in climate change Esther Michelsen Kjeldahl & Vincent F Hendricks

Figure 1. We all think individually that we – personally – are the only ones who cares. Credit: Shirin Ørberg individuals’ motivation for changing behav- identified with the that one’s private fact that individuals falsely believed most ior—whether be it psychological, economic, attitudes and judgments are different from others supported the practices was sufficient or moral—may prove ineffective if there are those of others, even though one’s public for the individuals to comply with them. other social forces involved as well. Indeed, behavior is identical [2,3]. Furthermore, it has shown that beliefs has been used more broadly to describe situ- Biased higher-order climate beliefs and actions of individuals are heavily influ- ations where group members significantly enced by what they perceive the actions and underestimate the popularity of a majority Now, what are the private beliefs, feelings, beliefs of their peers to be [see Myers opinion [4–6]. and attitudes of the European, the USA, and (2014), recommended reading]. In social Social scientists have applied the concept the Chinese public concerning climate psychology, a concept known as pluralistic to a number of real-life social situations to change? A recent Eurobarometer revealed ignorance precisely describes situations explain why harmful, unhealthy, or simply that 92% of European citizens view climate where social forces overrule individual outdated social practices continue to be change to be a serious problem and, of thinking and decision making. accepted despite being privately rejected by these, 74% view it as a very serious prob- Daniel Katz, Floyd H. Allport, and many of those partaking in the practices. For lem. Likewise, an even fresher report Margaret Jenness introduced the concept in example, it has been used to explain the conducted by the Yale Program on Climate 1931 to label and explain situations where persistence of norms of racial segregation in Change Communication and the George group members, in an attempt to conform to the mid-1900s [1,5], of excessive drinking Mason University Center for Climate Change a perceived “group opinion”, act contrary to habits at universities [3], and the slow pace Communication showed that 73% of regis- their private opinions, attitudes, feelings, or of the resolution of issues such as gender tered American voters think global warming preferences [1]. Later, the term came to be inequality [4]. In all these cases, the mere is happening, that 59% think it is caused

2 of 5 EMBO reports 19:e47185 | 2018 ª 2018 The Authors Esther Michelsen Kjeldahl & Vincent F Hendricks Pluralistic ignorance in climate change EMBO reports

mostly by human activities, and that 63% an opinion only shared by a minority within interpret and explain the behavior of others. are worried about it [see European Commis- the group, group members may get the false In a famous experiment, social psychologists sion (2017) and Leiserowitz et al (2018), impression that most others hold the minor- Dale Miller and Cathy McFarland showed recommended reading]. In China, no less ity opinion in question. In their 2011 book, that pluralistic ignorance arises precisely than 98% believe global warming is happen- historians Naomi Oreskes and Erik Conway when individuals observed others who ing [7]. The majority of people living in found that a handful of professional climate behaved exactly like themselves but falsely some of the most carbon-emitting areas of contrarians garnered a disproportionate assumed that others’ behavior reflected the planet agree that climate change is real. amount of attention in the media landscape internal states or opinions that differed from ...... around the turn of the millennium. While their own [2]. Here, the cause of pluralistic the views of climate contrarians were widely ignorance is not that minority opinions are “The mere fact that refuted within the scientific community, too prominent in the social environment, individuals falsely believe biased reporting created a distorted belief but instead that individuals silently attribute most others support that contrarians represented a large propor- opinions to others based on what they tion of scientists [see Oreskes & Conway observe their behavior to be. In wealthy carbon-intensive practices may (2011), recommended reading]. countries, where levels of consumption are be sufficient for individuals to may be explained by the high, similar factors may be in force—afflu- comply with them.” structural conditions of the current informa- ent inhabitants, privately aware that their ...... tion market. Information consumes the is unsustainable, may falsely infer attention of its recipients and, in the infor- from observing similar carbon-intensive At the same time, research shows that mation age, attention is a prime asset. This behaviors of others that most people believe individuals tend to misjudge others’ beliefs generates an economy heavily geared this practice is acceptable. about climate change. Most notably, a recent toward capturing attention. Attention may ...... examination of higher-order beliefs of Amer- be converted into money, power, status, or ican and Chinese citizens and of political influence. Actors in this new market have “Interventions providing and intellectual elites in the USA showed an incentive to speculate as to which infor- correct information to the that all groups greatly underestimated the mation will best attract audiences of, say, public and policymakers about public’s pro-climate change beliefs [7]. Simi- online users, independently of whether the the distribution of climate larly, another large study demonstrated that information is true. This can create an envi- Australian citizens generally overestimate ronment conducive to misinformation, fake opinions may be the key to the proportion of people who think climate news, and agenda-setting in the media [for a solving our current dangerous change is not happening and, likewise, detailed analysis of the market of attention collective climate inaction.” underestimated the proportion understand- in the information age, see Hendricks & ...... ing climate change to be human-induced Vestergaard (2018), recommended reading]. [6]. A third study showed that American Numerous robust studies confirm that our A third, related explanation concerns students systematically underestimated the attention is more likely to be captured by times of social change where individuals number of other people who believe climate content that rouses activity-mobilizing senti- gradually change their private opinions change to be a serious problem, and as a ments like anger, fear, and indignation [for about an issue, although the social struc- consequence, they were less willing to instance, see Berger & Milkman (2013), tures do not change at the same speed. In discuss the issue with their peers [8]. recommended reading]. This has been these cases, the social structures become Remarkably, even climate change experts observed in many issues where there is a misleading in the sense that individuals have fallen victim to pluralistic ignorance: A strong consensus among the scientific assume most others still support the old poll measuring experts’ estimates of the community. For example, minority views on practices, even though they themselves are opinions of other experts about the Intergov- the alleged danger related to the human perfectly aware that the practices are ernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine in teenagers outdated [3,4]. For example, in David J. 2007 assessment of global sea-level rise indi- have featured centrally in debates—despite Schwartz’s classic self-help book The Magic cated a tendency to overestimate the climate having no scientific grounding—as they feed of Thinking Big from 1959, he states: change optimism of other experts [9]. on people’s fear. This gives reporting on “Success means many wonderful, positive such issues a false balance, as it provides things. Success means personal prosperity: a Causes of pluralistic ignorance disproportionate airtime to what is very fine home, vacations, travel, new things much a minority view, elevating its status (...)”. Being able to travel all over the There are several theories about the causes alongside the views of the majority of scien- world, buy new things, and so on, used to of pluralistic ignorance, many of which are tists. Similarly, the views of climate contrari- be regarded as an absolutely positive thing. clearly applicable to the climate change ans have disproportionately dominated But much has changed since 1959. We now context. discussions on anthropogenic climate have information in abundance available on One is that individuals take the opinions change for similar reasons—even minority how damaging such a lifestyle is. Yet, the of outspoken group members to reflect the anger may turn into an attention grabber. majority of people still uphold these carbon- opinions of most others in the group [4]. In A second theory about the cause of intensive practices and—publicly—look up cases where the most outspoken people hold pluralistic ignorance relates to how humans to those who are “successful” in Schwartz’s

ª 2018 The Authors EMBO reports 19:e47185 | 2018 3 of 5 EMBO reports Pluralistic ignorance in climate change Esther Michelsen Kjeldahl & Vincent F Hendricks

outdated sense of the term. This creates a Therefore, pluralistic ignorance about What to do about it? misleading social environment where people climate change may be a key factor in our are mistakenly led to think that most others hesitation to adjust our carbon-intensive By providing information about the true do not view climate change as a serious behavior, on both individual and national distribution of climate opinions, pluralistic problem—at least, not a problem so serious level. ignorance may be corrected—for climate that individuals should make an effort to reduce personal emissions, and publicly demand political action. Recommended reading list On the history of climate science Consequences of pluralistic ignorance 1. Oreskes N, Conway E (2011) Merchants of doubt : how a handful of scientists obscured the truth on issues from tobacco smoke to global warming. New York, NY: Bloomsbury Press Studies in social psychology demonstrate that On cognitive dissonance in climate change people’s perception of the influ- 2. Stoknes PE (2015) What we think about when we try not to think about global warming – ences their behavior. If individuals mistak- toward a new psychology of climate action. Chelsea Green Publishing enly believe they are more or less alone in 3. Hamilton C, Kasser T (2009) Psychological adaptation to the threats and stresses of a four- worrying about climate change, they may be degree world. “Four Degrees and Beyond” conference, pp 28–30 less willing to reduce their personal efforts 4. Stoll-Kleemann S, O’Riordan T, Jaeger CC (2001) The psychology of denial concerning climate 11 107–117 and openly demand political climate action. mitigation measures: Evidence from Swiss focus groups. Global Env Change : In other words, the mere fact that individuals On climate change as a “tragedy of the commons” falsely believe most others support carbon- 5 2001 30 387–416 intensive practices may be sufficient for indi- . Gardiner SM ( ) The real tragedy of the commons. Philos Public Aff : viduals to comply with them. Early On the role of education to stimulate change of behavior researchers of pluralistic ignorance hypothe- 6 2017 sized that social leads individuals . Ledley TS, Rooney-Varga J, Niepold F ( ) Addressing climate change through education. Encyclopedia of Environmental Science to alter their behavior to be in accordance with a misperceived group opinion. In other On the role of ethics to stimulate change of behavior words, pluralistic ignorance may result in 7. Hedberg T (2018) Climate change, moral integrity, and obligations to reduce individual greenhouse group members acting contrary to their own gas emissions. Ethics, Policy Environ 21: 64–80 preferences and opinions [1]. Related to this 8. Markowitz EM, Shariff AF (2012) Climate change and moral judgement. Nat Clim Chang 2: 243–247 point, philosopher Clive Hamilton and psychologist Tim Kasser stress that the fear A textbook introduction to social psychology and the importance of social norms of being ridiculed as an “eco-obsessive” may 9. Myers DG (2014) Social Psychology. North Ryde, NSW: McGraw-Hill Education prevent worried individuals from changing to a more sustainable lifestyle [10]. More empirical studies in pluralistic ignorance Recalling the results from the public opin- 10. Monin B, Norton MI (2003) Perceptions of a fluid consensus: uniqueness bias, false consensus, ion studies in Europe, the USA, and China, it false polarization, and pluralistic ignorance in a water conservation crisis. Personal Soc Psychol Bull 29 559–567 is likely that a vast majority of these public : 11. Fields JM, Schuman H (1976) Public beliefs about the beliefs of the public. Public Opin Q 40: in fact want to make a greater effort to 427–448 combat climate change but avoid doing so out of fear of deviating from a misperceived On the market of attention, attention speculation in the information age and its social norm. A distorted view of the public’s consequences for democracy lack of climate concerns and support for pro- 12. Berger J, Milkman K (2013) Emotion and virality: what makes online content go viral? GfK climate policies inhibits political action. Marketing Intelligence Review 5: 18–23 From a game-theoretical perspective, Matto 13. Hendricks VF, Vestergaard M (2018) lost: markets of attention, misinformation and Mildenberger and Dustin Tingley argue that manipulation. New York, NY: Springer Nature individuals’ participation in actions that are A review and discussion of norm-based interventions to change behavior individually costly but collectively beneficial 14 2016 67 339–361 may depend on their perceptions of others’ . Miller DT, Prentice DA ( ) Changing norms to change behavior. Annu Rev Psychol : beliefs. If individuals do not believe others are Some recent public opinion studies on climate beliefs willing to cooperate, their own motivation for 15 2017 459 cooperating likewise decreases: “actors may . European Commission ( ) Special Eurobarometer : Climate change 16. Leiserowitz A, Maibach E, Roser-Renouf C, Rosenthal S, Cutler M, Kotcher J (2018) Politics & not invest scarce time or resources in political Global Warming, March 2018, New Haven climate activism because they don’t believe their efforts will help elect a pro-climate politi- Societal pressure and the spread infectious diseases cal official, will help pressure an existing offi- 17. Oraby T, Thampi V, Bauch CT (2014) The influence of social norms on the dynamics of vacci- cial to support some pro-climate policy or will nating behaviour for paediatric infectious diseases. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological help mobilize peers to engage in climate- Sciences 281: 20133172 friendly behaviors” [7].

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change issues, but possibly also in other phenomenon and that it is a serious prob- vaccination programs, and other health- areas such as vaccine programs. It is impor- lem. If a certain proportion of those people related policies or lifestyle changes. tant that the information is personalized, so falsely believe their opinion is only shared individuals find it relevant. This may be by a minority, and if this perception is what Conflict of interest accomplished in a way in which individuals inhibits them from taking climate action, realize their own bias when receiving the interventions targeting such a group may The authors declare that they have no conflict of information, and where the reference group lead to much more collective action and in interest. is one that individuals identify with [for a turn make the public’s climate concerns detailed review and account outlining the more visible to policymakers. References logic behind norm-based interventions, see 1. Katz D, Allport FH, Jenness MB (1931) Miller & Prentice (2016), recommended Conclusion Students’ attitudes: a report of the Syracuse reading]. If the information is successfully University reaction study. Ann Am Acad Pol delivered in the sense that recipients under- Much emphasis has been put on furthering Soc Sci 155: 256 – 257 stand it and revise their biased higher-order individuals’ understanding of the causes 2. Miller DT, Mcfarland C (1987) Pluralistic igno- belief on the basis of it, they may be more and consequences of climate change. Public rance: when similarity is interpreted as motivated to cooperate with others in opinion studies show that these efforts dissimilarity. J Pers Soc Psychol 53: 298 – 305 combatting climate change. A recent exam- have been fruitful in the sense that a 3. Prentice DA, Miller DT (1993) Pluralistic igno- ple to this effect was when a random subset majority of individuals understand that rance and alcohol use on campus: some of the public in the USA was informed that climate change is a serious problem. consequences of misperceiving the social 98 percent of the Chinese population However, individuals tend to underestimate norm. J Pers Soc Psychol 64: 243 – 256 global warming is happening, public support for policies to reduce carbon 4. Shamir J, Shamir M (1997) Pluralistic igno- which led to significantly increased support emissions. This may be partly due to the rance across issues and over time. Public Opin for a USA–China climate treaty [7]. large media exposure of the views and Q 61: 227 – 260 While it is difficult to directly measure if opinions of climate contrarians, and partly 5.O’Gorman HJ (1975) Pluralistic ignorance and an intervention has caused overall behav- due to a misleading information environ- white estimates of white support for racial ioral change, it may be fruitful to look more ment where individuals infer from the segregation. Public Opin Q 39: 311 – 330 closely at various subgroups in follow-up carbon-intensive behavior of others that 6. Leviston Z, Walker I, Morwinski S (2013) Your studies. Oftentimes, a certain proportion most people do not really care about opinion on climate change might not be as correctly perceives the majority opinion, but climate change. The consequences of such common as you think. Nat Clim Chang 3: do not themselves agree with it. If they are biased higher-order beliefs are that a major- 334 – 337 provided with information about the true ity of concerned individuals are inhibited 7. Mildenberger M, Tingley D (2017) Beliefs distribution of opinions, they probably will from taking climate action, out of fear of about climate beliefs: the importance of not change their behavior, since they are deviating from a misperceived social norm. second-order opinions for climate politics. Br already to some degree aware of the true This lack of action from the civil society in J Polit Sci 10: 1 – 29 distribution. The interesting subgroups to turn leads to policymakers underestimating 8. Geiger N, Swim JK (2016) Climate of silence: look at from a post-intervention perspective the support for ambitious climate policies. pluralistic ignorance as a barrier to climate are those who clearly have false perceptions Interventions providing correct information change discussion. J Environ Psychol 47: 79 – 90 of the majority opinion, and, even narrower, to the public and policymakers about the 9. VisionPrize, Last updated 2012, Accessed on those who actually hold the majority opin- distribution of climate opinions may be the 2012 ion but mistakenly believe they are part of a key to solving our current dangerous collec- 10. Hamilton C, Kasser T (2009) Psychological minority. In the case of climate change, the tive climate inaction. It may also inform adaptation to the threats and stresses of a majority opinion in Europe, the USA, and policies to address other similar problems four-degree world. “Four Degrees and China is that climate change is a real such as (perceived) public resistance to Beyond” conference, pp 28 – 30

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