Pluralistic Ignorance Varies With Group Size∗ A Dynamic Model of Impression Management Mauricio Fern´andezDuquey December 6, 2018 Abstract I develop a theory of group interaction in which individuals who act sequentially are `impression managers' concerned with signaling what they believe is the majority opin- ion. Equilibrium dynamics may result in most individuals acting according to what they mistakenly believe is the majority opinion, a situation known as `pluralistic ig- norance'. Strong ex ante beliefs over others' views increases pluralistic ignorance in small groups, but decreases it in large groups. Pluralistic ignorance may lead to a perverse failure of collective action, where individuals don't act selfishly because they incorrectly believe they are acting in a way that benefits others, which results in an inefficient drop in social interactions. A policymaker who wants to maximize social welfare will reveal information about the distribution of opinions in large groups, but will manipulate information to make the minority seems larger if the group is small. ∗The latest version of the paper can be found at https://scholar.harvard.edu/duque/research. I would like to thank Samuel Asher, Nava Ashraf, Robert Bates, Iris Bohnet, Jeffry Frieden, Benjamin Golub, Michael Hiscox, Antonio Jim´enez,Horacio Larreguy, Navin Kartik, Scott Kominers, Stephen Morris, Pia Raffler, Matthew Rabin, Kenneth Shepsle, Joel Sobel, and seminar participants at Harvard University, ITAM, CIDE, and the European Economic Association. yHarvard University and CIDE. E-mail:
[email protected]. 1 1 Introduction When group members act according to what they think others want, they may end up doing what nobody wants.