A Perfect Storm?

DND photo BN2012-0408-02 by Corporal Pierre Habib Corporal Pierre by BN2012-0408-02 DND photo This Bagotville-based CF-18, which graphically displays cosmetic wear appropriate to its age, is rather symbolic of the overdue need for a fighter replacement decision. A Perfect Storm? by Martin Shadwick t would, at least at this juncture, be imprudent and recent British defence review, although calling for additional premature to suggest that the eye-watering levels of and substantial personnel reductions in the British Army, was public spending associated directly or indirectly with noticeably more charitable toward the Royal Navy (and to a the pandemic will inevitably trigger significant cuts in lesser extent the Royal Air Force). Indeed, it could be argued Canadian defence spending—with all that implies in that the cuts in the British Army’s end strength and holdings of Iterms of military capabilities and force structure—and the de older equipment were necessary to help generate funding in the facto evisceration of the now four-year-old defence policy statement, Strong, Secure, Engaged. Indeed, there have been suggestions in some quarters that heightened or at least accelerated defence spending, most likely in terms of shovel- ready infrastructure, could prove useful as an economic stimulant. Other observers have acknowledged that more than a few nation-states have paused or scaled back at least some projected defence procurement, but are quick to note that others—Australia and Sweden spring readily to mind—are still moving forward with ambitious defence modernization and expansion schemes. Even the Systems. BAE A recent concept design for the proposed Canadian Surface Combatant. 66 Canadian Military Journal • Vol. 21, No. 3, Summer 2021 transformative fields of space, cyber, unmanned vehicles and Canadian Armed Forces rather than a “very good” (one percent) artificial intelligence, and would likely have occurred even in or “good” job (seven per cent).” the absence of COVID-19. Contemporary public opinion polling on Canadians’ broader That said, it would be unwise—given the long-established perceptions of the armed forces and their roles make for much tendency of Canadian governments, of all political persuasions, more uplifting reading, but it is arguably apparent that the stellar to fight deficit and debt problems by, in part, significant reduc- numbers generated by public opinion polling around the close of tions in defence spending—to assume that the post-pandemic the Afghanistan operation (see, for example, the 2014 Tracking Department of National Defence will be spared some measure Study conducted for DND by Phoenix Strategic Perspectives) have, of fiscal trauma. Moreover, DND’s vulnerability to pandemic to some extent, perhaps inevitably, dimmed in more recent public funding pressures and the concomitant need to “build back better” opinion polls. To be sure, Canadians still rather like their armed COMMENTARY in a variety of social policy fields could well be heightened by forces, but exactly what they do continues to elude a distressing unfortunate overlap with a range of big-ticket (and thus highly number of Canadians. visible and potentially contentious and vulnerable) items, and a variety of other not-insubstantial procurement projects. These A core question, consequently, is whether a ‘perfect storm’— are anchored by the long-awaited successor to the stalwart CF-18 the combination of extremely high pandemic and pandemic-related Hornet (which caused considerable heartburn for the Harper gov- public spending, a timing confluence with some particularly big- ernment and quickly generated angst for the Trudeau government), ticket and potentially controversial procurement projects, and a and by the potent but pricy Canadian Surface Combatant (which conceivable erosion of public esteem—will prompt or at least has to date drawn comparatively modest media and public atten- facilitate significant reductions (even if temporary) in Canadian tion, largely on the basis of delays in schedule and increases in defence spending. cost, but which could become the source of controversy on other fronts), but include a broad range of other land, sea and air proj- In September 2020, a major public opinion survey of ects, including replacements for the Airbus A310 tanker-transport “Canadian knowledge and attitudes about defence and security and the CP-140 Aurora. Also on the list, but only now starting issues”—conducted by Nanos Research on behalf of the Canadian to generate attention outside of military and defence-academic Defence and Security Network (CDSN)—provided a most useful circles, is a thoroughgoing modernization of NORAD’s early glimpse into public perceptions of Canada’s place in a disordered warning and related capabilities. The last major overhaul (i.e., and pandemic-weary world, perceived threats to Canada, the the NAADM accord of 1985) was comparatively straightforward perceived and potential roles of Canada’s armed forces and of technologically, but still managed to generate a shrill, ill-informed the relationship between Canadian society and the Canadian and frankly embarrassing political, media and public debate. In military. Some of its findings, such as strong support for interna- 2021 and beyond, the potential for an infinitely messier and more tional peacekeeping, were unsurprising albeit not reflected in the convoluted debate should not be discounted. numbers of Canadian military personnel on peacekeeping duty in recent times. Others, such as seemingly robust support for defence These are by no means the only challenges. Recent allegations spending, even in the midst of a costly pandemic, were perhaps of sexual misconduct against some very senior serving and retired somewhat unexpected—although one wonders if such numbers officers have refocused and reignited political, public, media and would be repeatable today. In any event, they are no guarantee other attention to a series of supposedly systemic—and certainly of fiscal largesse from Ottawa. not new—problems in Canada’s armed forces. These collectively engage pivotal questions of law, ethics, morality, leadership and Canadians, reported the survey, “…are twice as likely to say ethos, but they also have other implications. If these problems that Canada is facing international threats to a high degree than to are not addressed effectively, thoroughly and with dispatch, one say they are not facing threats at all.” Just 20 percent, noted Nik of the multiple painful consequences for Canada’s armed forces Nanos in the Globe and Mail of 14 November 2020, “say they could be a deep and profound—indeed, Somalia affair-like— believe those threats are low.” The foremost threats identified by erosion of public esteem. A March 2021 survey conducted by respondents included China (22 percent), the United States/Trump Nanos Research on behalf of CTV News and the Globe and Mail administration (17 percent), cyber attacks (10 percent), terrorism concluded that Canadians were not confident about the military’s (seven percent), trade wars (seven percent) and climate change ability to change its workplace culture “following multiple reports (six percent). In terms of “the greatest international threats” Canada of sexual harassment and discrimination in the Canadian Armed will face in ten years, 15 percent of the respondents identified Forces.” When asked if they were “confident, somewhat confi- China, while 13 percent and eight percent, respectively, cited dent, somewhat not confident or not confident that the [CAF] in climate change and the environment and cyber attacks. the long run can change its workplace culture to be welcoming for everyone,” only thirteen percent of respondents expressed When queried on Canada’s place in the world, observed Nik confidence. Twenty-nine percent were “somewhat confident” and Nanos, the most frequent responses included peacekeeper/mediator 56 percent were either “not confident” or “somewhat not confi- (31 percent), followed by a leader (13 percent), an advocate for dent.” Fully 61.3 percent of the female respondents were either “not human rights and freedom (10 percent) and an example or role confident” or “somewhat not confident” of the military’s ability model for what countries should be (10 percent). In advancing to change its culture. Nor were those surveyed impressed by the Canada’s place in the world, respondents stressed diplomacy Government of Canada’s investigation into allegations of sexual (82 percent), international trade (80 percent), and the environ- misconduct and discrimination. Noted the survey: “Canadians are ment (79 percent), immigration (59 percent) and, intriguingly, six times more likely to say the Government of Canada is doing a tied at 54 percent, national defence and foreign aid. By a margin “very poor” (21 percent) or “poor” (33 percent) job at investigat- of more than three-to-one, “Canadians say we should be promot- ing allegations of sexual misconduct and discrimination in the ing our country’s values rather than its interests. Responses to a Canadian Military Journal • Vol. 21, No. 3, Summer 2021 67 trade (36 percent) and environmental responsibility/climate change (16 percent).” In his assessment of how well “our vision of the world and our role in it fit with how the CAF supports those ambitions,” Nik Nanos noted that “peacekeeping and defending Canadian territory/Canadians are the top two missions respondents saw as appropriate for the Forces (40 percent and 35 percent, respectively). Canadians also place a high priority on a role for the military that includes helping authorities with crises at home,” including natural disasters and pandemic relief. When “…it comes to international missions that Canadians support most, they included participating in natural disaster relief (77 percent), UN peacekeeping (74 percent), defence cooperation with allies (70 percent) and conducting cyber operations (65 percent). But Canadians are much more divided when it comes to combat missions such as air strikes, or fighting on the ground or at sea.” The “key takeaway is that there is significant political licence for humanitarian, peacekeeping and cooperative defence missions with allies.

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