STATES OF EMERGENCY Technological Failures and Social Destabilization Patrick Lagadec Contents Introduction PART ONE Technical Breakdown, Crisis and Destabilization Framework of Reference 1. The weapons of crisis ........................................................................................ 11 1. An unusual event in a metastable context .......................................................... 12 2. Crisis dynamics................................................................................................... 21 2. Organizations with their backs to the wall...................................................... 23 1. Classic destabilization scenarios ......................................................................... 24 2. Slipping out of control ....................................................................................... 35 PART TWO Technological Crisis and the Actors Involved 3- In the thick of things ....................................................................................... 43 - Marc Becam ....................................................................................................... 45 The oil spill from the "Amoco Cadiz", March - May, 1978 - Richard Thornburgh........................................................................................... 55 Three Mile Island, March - April, 1979 - Douglas K. Burrows .......................................................................................... 66 The great Mississauga evacuation, November 10-16. 1979 - Péter-J.Hargitay ............................................................................................... 75 The Bhopal disaster, December 2-3, 1984 viii Contents - Edgar Fasel......................................................................................................... 84 Schweizerhalle and the polluting of the Rhine, November 1-3,1986 - Philippe Vesseron............................................................................................... 90 The case of the Seveso waste drums, 1982-1983 - Bernard F avez ................................................................................................... 107 Nuclear power plant incident - Network failure, January 12, 1987 - Claude Frantzen and Laurent du Boullay............................................................ 117 The DC-10 crisis, May 25 - July 13, 1979 - Gilbert Carrère.................................................................................................... 141 Askarel leaks in Villeurbanne, June-July, 1986 The Port Edouard-Herriot conflagration, June, 1987 4. From other actors' points of view .................................................................. 149 - KarineRobak ...................................................................................................... 151 The electric transformer explosion in Rheims, 1985 - Philippe Dessaint................................................................................................ 161 Crises involving Askarel and PCBs, Rheims, 1985 - Villeurbanne, 1986 - Lucien Abenhaim................................................................................................. 172 Uncertainty, the expert, and crises in public health - Pierre Bobe and Jacques Fournier....................................................................... 184 In a crisis situation, unions are vulnerable, too - Robert L. Dilenschneider ................................................................................... 190 Ethics and competence for crisis management - François Ailler et .................................................................................................. 196 An attitude of openness and responsibility - HarounTazieff.................................................................................................... 203 Who will have the courage to prevent catastrophes? - Laurent Fabius..................................................................................................... 208 Our societies: Ill-prepared to face complexity and the future - Gustavo Esteva .................................................................................................. 213 Victims can organize themselves - Enrico Quarantelli .............................................................................................. 222 Thirty years of catastrophe research PART THREE Landmarks for Action. Questions about Management Getting disentangled from failure's briar patch ......................................... 237 1. Overcoming fears................................................................................................ 237 2. Moving beyond imaginary defenses............................................................ 241 3. When the crisis strikes, avoid yielding to immediate defeat ................................ 244 4. Dealing with the crisis over time ......................................................................... 247 5. Controls and learning opportunities .................................................................... 249 Contents ix 6. Perspectives: the debate is open .................................................................... 253 1. The people in charge: how to manage in a great black void?................................ 253 2. The other actors: how much margin for manœuvre? ............................................ 257 3. What disturbances could a major crisis cause? .................................................... 266 Conclusion ....................................................................................................... 275 References ......................................................................................................... 279 Introduction In recent years, a whole series of technological breakdowns has considerably heightened the concern felt in our societies about major safety issues. From governments, public administrations and industrial groups to press organs, elected officials, unions, associations, and in the general public, we are all increasingly aware of the problem of major technological hazards - "three words", we wrote in 1980, "that raise innumerable technical questions, social issues, and particularly formidable challenges for political awareness and action in our time" (1). After the warnings of the 1970s, the big shocks of the 1980s In writing The Risk Civilization (2), we focused on the simple warnings given during the 1970s by events like Seveso and Three Mile Island. Today, we know that the concept of major technological risk is more than just an intellectual framework: - Mexico City, November 1984: explosions and a general fire producing a domino effect in a gas storage site located within a densely populated area. For hours, the firefighters couldn't get within a kilometer of the inferno. Gas reservoirs weighing several tons were transformed into missiles flying as much as 400 meters before crashing into the downtown area. Huge chunks of metal were projected more than two kilometers away. The toll: more than 800 immediate deaths (1000 - 2000 according to the press), more than 7000 severely wounded; 200,000 shock victims fled the area. A shadow was suddenly cast on the country's entire urban and industrial planning system, and Mexico was far from being the only country concerned by the problem - Bhopal, December 1984: a cloud of toxic gas hits the capital of the Madhya Pradesh region. More than 2300 die, more than 60,000 are injured. America's third largest chemical group must fight for its survival. A hasty discussion develops over the utility of transferring industrial technology from North to South. The world's chemical industry is doubt-shaken, as its image 2 Introduction has been tarnished by fears similar to those plaguing the nuclear industry. Insurance companies make major strategic cutbacks (5) (6). - Cape Canaveral, January 1986: Challenger, the space shuttle, explodes in flight and the team, its projects and symbols (including a teacher who was to give a lesson from space) die in a live broadcast watched by tens of millions of viewers. NASA falters under the shock, then is torn apart by the official investigation. The United States finds itself knocked out of space. -Chernobyl, April 1986: a terrible nuclear incident occurs 130 miles outside Kiev and is revealed by Sweden. Few immediate deaths: a cloud drifts across all of Europe, reaching Greece and Turkey to the south, and crosses over the North Pole to touch Japan and the west coast of the United States. (Despite the barrage of declarations and the wall of silence erected, France is also affected.) This cloud unsettles numerous organizations lying in its path. A worldwide "shockwave" not only shakes the public's perception of this technology down to its roots, but also damages the image of public authority and experts as a whole. -Basel, November 1986: in the aftermath of a chemical products warehouse fire, toxic chemicals flow into the Rhine. A chain reaction runs through all the countries touching the banks of this river, down to its mouth. This is the third major public emotion of the year. Confidence in technology and the credibility accorded to industry is further eroded, especially because of the company's delays in providing information. Beyond the accident, the crisis In The Risk Civilization we laid out the many facets of this problem, ranging from accident prevention to dealing with catastrophe. Now we would like to look more closely at one of the moments in this vast ensemble: the shock itself,