Toimijuus Ja Mahdollisuuksien Tilat Aluekehityksessä

Markku Sotarauta, Heli Kurikka, Jari Kolehmainen & Sami Sopanen (toim.)

Toimijuus ja mahdollisuuksien tilat aluekehityksessä

Miten kehittyä vastoin kaikkia oletuksia?

Tampereen yliopisto Sente-julkaisuja 35/2021

Taitto Markku Sotarauta

Kannen kuva Matthew T Rader on Unsplash, muokkaus Markku Sotarauta

ISBN 978-952-03-1872-7 (online)

Sisältö

Esipuhe 4 Kiireisten tiivistelmä 5

Markku Sotarauta, Heli Kurikka, Jari Kolehmainen, Sami Sopanen & Markus Grillitsch I Muutostoimijuuden kolminaisuus ja mahdollisuuksien tilat 1 Johdanto 16 2 Evoluutiosta ja instituutiosta kehityspolkujen tutkimukseen 18 3 Teoria pähkinänkuoressa: muutostoimijuuden kolminaisuus ja mahdollisuuksien tilat 19 3.1 Kehityspolut 20 3.2 Muutostoimijuus 22 3.3 Mahdollisuuksien tila 25 4 Tutkimusmetodologia ja vaiheet 28 5 Suomen case-analyysien tulokset tiivistetysti 35 5.1 Itä-Lapin seutukunta 35 5.2 Pietarsaaren seutukunta 36 5.3 Salon seutukunta 38 5.4 Varkauden seutukunta 40 5.5 Yhteenveto 41 5.6 Johtopäätökset 46

II Case reports

Heli Kurikka, Markku Sotarauta & Jari Kolehmainen 6 Eastern Lapland sub-region 51 6.1 Regional characteristics 51 6.2 Variables of the structural model 55 6.3 Regional development trajectories 58 6.4 Change agency 61 6.5 Trinity of change agency 66 6.6 Opportunity spaces 67 6.7 Change obstacles and enablers 68 6.8 Conclusions 69

Heli Kurikka 7 Jakobstad (Pietarsaari) sub-region 72 7.1 Regional characteristics 72 7.2 Variables of the structural model 76 7.3 Regional development trajectories 80 7.4 Change agency 86 7.5 Trinity of change agency 90 7.6 Opportunity spaces 92 7.7 Change obstacles and enablers 93 7.8 Conclusions 96

Sami Sopanen, Jari Kolehmainen & Heli Kurikka 8 Salo sub-region 100 8.1 Regional characteristics 100 8.2 Variables of the structural model 104 8.3 Regional development trajectories 114 8.4 Change agency 115 8.5 Trinity of change agency 121 8.6 Opportunity spaces 123 8.7 Change obstacles and enablers 124 8.8 Conclusions 126

Sami Sopanen & Heli Kurikka 9 Varkaus sub-region 129 9.1 Regional characteristics 129 9.2 Variables of the structural model 134 9.3 Regional development trajectories 137 9.4 Change agency 142 9.5 Trinity of change agency 148 9.6 Opportunity spaces 149 9.7 Change obstacles and enablers 150 9.8 Conclusions 151

ESIPUHE

Olemme tiivistäneet tähän teokseen Regional Growth against all the Odds (ReGrow) -projektin teorian, metodologian ja päähuomiot suomeksi. Sente-julkaisuista ei saa aka- teemisia papukaijamerkkejä tai suorituspisteitä, mutta olemme aika ajoin halunneet do- kumentoida tekemisemme ja tutkimustuloksemme helposti jaettavaan muotoon. ReGrow -projekti on yksi parhaista projekteistamme koskaan. Yhteistyö sujuu ryh- missä ja ryhmien välillä jouheasti, aineisto on monipuolinen ja erittäin kattava, eikä teorian kehittäminen ole jäänyt jokapäiväisen puuhan jalkoihin. Suuret kiitokset Lundin yliopiston ryhmälle (Markus Grillitsch, Josephine Rekers, Magnus Nilsson, Karl-Johan Lundquist, Linda Stihl, Mikhail Martynovich ja Hjalti Nielsen) ja Stavangerin yliopiston ryhmälle (Rune Dahl Fitjar ja Silje Haus-Reve). Ilman resursseja on vaikea saada aikaiseksi yhtään mitään. Lämmin kiitos Länsförsäkringar Alliance Research Foundation1, Sweden.

10.2.2021 Ylöjärven Tiuraniemessä Ilmajoen Koskenkorvalla Kangasalan Ruutanassa Seinäjoen ytimessä Markku Sotarauta Heli Kurikka Jari Kolehmainen Sami Sopanen

1 Grant Number: 2017/01/01 4

KIIREISTEN TIIVISTELMÄ

Johdanto ‘Tässä raportissa esitellään “Regional Growth Against all the Odds” -tutkimusprojektin2 (ReGrow) Suomen osuuden päätulokset. Tutkimuksessa etsittiin vastausta kysymykseen miksi jotkin alueet kasvavat enemmän (tai vähemmän) kuin toiset suhteellisen samanlaisista rakenteellisista lähtökohdista huolimatta. Tutkimuksen empiirinen analyysi toteutettiin Nor- jassa, Ruotsissa ja Suomessa. Pohjoismainen vertailu on tätä raporttia kirjoitettaessa edelleen kesken ja lopulliset tulokset julkaistaan aikaisintaan vuonna 2022. Nostimme ReGrow -projektin päätavoitteeksi luoda uudenlaisen toimijuuden ja rakenteet yhdistävän teorian sekä sitä tukevan metodologian kysymällä, miksi jotkin alueet kasvavat paremmin tai huonommin kuin toiset suhteellisen samanlaisista rakenteellisista lähtökohdista huolimatta. Kohdistimme huomion erityisesti kasvukeskusten ulkopuoliseen maailmaan kolmesta syystä: (a) Teorian kehittäminen ja metodologian testaaminen on astetta helpompaa alueilla, joissa rakenteet ovat ohuemmat ja toimijoita vähemmän, (b) toimijuuden suhteellinen merkitys korostuu institutionaalisesti ohuilla alueilla (Tödtling & Trippl 2005) ja (c) kasvukeskusten ulkopuoliset alueet tarvitsevat tukea toimijuuden vahvistamisessa. ReGrow-projektin tavoitteet olivat: • Tunnistaa rakenteiden vaikutus alueellisessa kehityksessä. • Tunnistaa ne seutukunnat, jotka ovat jollain ajanjaksolla kasvaneet nopeammin tai hitaammin kuin niiden rakenteiden perusteella voisi ennakoida. • Selittää seutukuntien nopeampi tai hitaampi kasvu analysoimalla toimijuutta, verkostoja ja instituutioita. • Luoda kontekstisensitiivinen aluekehityksen malli, joka ottaa huomioon alueiden ominaispiirteet ja antaa mahdollisuuden kohdistaa huomion pitkän aikavälin muutoksiin.

Teoria Aluekehitystutkimuksen yhdeksi suurimmista haasteista on noussut toimijuuden ja rakenteet yhdistävän teorian ja sen tutkimusta tukevan metodologian kehittäminen. Yhdistimme ReGrow -projektissa sekä käsitteellisesti että metodologisesti polkuriippuvat rakenteelliset voimat ja toimijoiden tietoisesti luomat ja hyödyntämät mahdollisuudet kahden toisiinsa lin- kittyneen väittämän avulla (Grillitsch & Sotarauta 2020): • Jotkin alueet kehittyvät toisia suotuisammin, koska niissä kyetään muita paremmin tunnistamaan ja luomaan mahdollisuuksia. • Jotkin alueet kehittyvät toisia suotuisammin, koska muutostoimijuus on vahvaa ja kykenee sekä rakentamaan että hyödyntämään mahdollisuuksien tiloja. Rakensimme näiden kahden väittämän varaan teoreettisen mallin, jonka avulla on mahdollista tarkastella toimijuuden ja rakenteiden (havaittu aluekehitys) välisiä suhteita mahdollisuuksien tilan käsitteen toimiessa välittävänä mekanismina (kuva KT1).

2 Projektin toteuttivat Lundin yliopisto, Tampereen yliopisto ja Stavangerin yliopisto. Sen rahoitti Länsförsäkringar Alli- ance Research Foundation, Sweden (Grant Number: 2017/01/011).

muuttaa

Mahdollisuuksien Havaittu Muutostoimijuus tilat aluekehitys

rakentaa mahdollistaa Muutokset Innovatiivinen yrittäjyys Aikaan sidotut kehityspoluissa Institutionaalinen yrittäjyys Paikkaan sidotut Muutokset toimiala- ja Paikkaperustainen johtajuus Toimijaan sidotut väestörakenteessa

muovaa Kuva KT1. Teoreettinen malli (ks. tarkemmin luku 3)

Tutkimusmetodologia ReGrow -projektin tavoitteena ei ollut vain vastata tutkimuskysymyksiin vaan myös kehittää toimijuuden ja rakenteet yhdistävä teoria ja sitä tukeva metodologia. Tutkimus toteutettiin samalla teorialla ja metodologialla Norjassa, Ruotsissa ja Suomessa. Vaiheessa yksi luotiin perusta teoreettiselle kehitystyölle ja rakennettiin analyysimalli rakenteiden merkityksen tunnistamista varten. Vaiheen yksi tuloksena syntyi tutkimuksen teo- reettismetodologinen perusta. Vaiheessa kaksi tehtiin kvantitatiivinen analyysi tavoitteena tunnistaa Norjan, Ruotsin ja Suomen työpaikkakehitykseltään kokonaiskuvasta poikkeavat alueet. Suomesta tunnistettiin 11 mallista poikkeavaa ajanjaksoa 11 seutukunnnasta (ks. taulukko 4). Poikkeamat sijaitsivat tasaisesti eri puolilla maata. Niistä osa oli positiivisia ja osa negatiivisia. Kahdella seutukunnalla esiintyi sekä positiivinen että negatiivinen poikkeamakausi (tai useampi). Seutukuntien poikkeavat kaudet ryhmiteltiin neljään eri tyyppiin: (a) Yli- suoriutumisen kausi viittaa sellaiseen ajanjaksoon, jossa työpaikkojen määrä on kasvanut estimaattia paremmin. (b) Sinnittelyn kausi viittaa ajanjaksoihin, joissa työpaikkojen määrä on laskenut mallin estimaattia vähemmän. (c) Vajoamisen kausi tarkoittaa ajanjaksoa, jossa työpaikat ovat vähentyneet estimoitua enemmän ja (d) alisuoriutumisen kausi työpaikkamäärän kasvua estimoitua vähemmän (ks. taulukko 4). Teimme poikkeamaseutukuntien tunnistamisen jälkeen jokaisesta 11 estimaattimallin esille nostamasta seutukunnasta vuonna 2018 tiiviin taustaselvityksen tavoitteena tunnistaa tarkempaan analyysiin valittavat seutukunnat. Valitsimme tarkempaan case-analyysiin Itä-La- pin, Pietarsaaren, Salon ja Varkauden seutukunnat.

Tulokset Tätä raporttia kirjoitettaessa ReGrow -projektin päähuomio on kohdistunut teorian ja metodologian kehittämiseen sekä kehitysvaiheiden tunnistamiseen ja toimija-analyysiin. Mahdolli- suuksien tilan käsitettä ei analyyseissä ole käytetty kovinkaan laajasti. Tässä esitetyt huomiot mahdollisuuksien tiloista ovat alustavia ja luovat perustan astetta tarkemmille analyyseille. Itä-Lapin seutukunnassa toimijuus on ollut hajanaista ja satunnaista. Teollisen kriisin jälkeen se on tiivistynyt. Kehittämistoiminnan ytimessä on muutama avainhenkilö ja toimintamuotona pääosin julkisen hallinnon organisoimat kehittämisprojektit. Kehittämistoiminta on varsin pitkälle reaktiivista. Se rakentuu suurten kehittämisprojektien mobiloimiseen ja ra-

hoituksen etsintään; tällaisia ovat erityisesti seutukunnan ulkopuolisen päätöksenteon ja rahoituksen varassa olevat hankkeet kuten rautatieinvestoinnit, kaivokset ja uudet tehtaat. Itä- Lapin seutukunnassa kehittämistyössä painotetaan kansallisen tason merkitystä ja ulkoisia resursseja. Paikalliset verkostot ovat suhteellisen hauraita ja yhteydet muualle ohuiden verkostojen varassa. Itä-Lapin mahdollisuuksien tilan absoluuttinen aluespesifi tekijä on puuvarannot, jota kuitenkin kannattaa hankkia logistisista syistä vain rajatulta alueelta. Itä-Lapissa on metsätalou- desta kiinnostuneita osaavia toimijoita, mutta perusongelmana on pääomien puute ja teollisen ankkuritoimijan puute. Kiinalaisen pääoman etsiessä sijoituskohteita ja sellun kysynnän kasvaessa Kiinassa aikaikkuna rahoituksen saamiseksi Kiinasta oli jonkin aikaa auki. Tätä raporttia kirjoitettaessa vaikuttaa sille, että aikaikkuna on sulkeutumassa. Haasteita tuottaa myös suurten yritysten ja samalla alueiden välinen kilpailu siitä, kenen on mahdollista toteuttaa uudet biotuotetehtaat ensimmäisenä. Kansallisella tasolla metsävarannon hyödyntämistä ei voi kasvattaa määräänsä enempää.

Taulukko KT1. Yhteenveto Itä-Lapin seutukunnan mahdollisuuksien tilasta - näkökulmana metsäteollisuus.

Aikaulottuvuus Alueulottuvuus Toimijaulottuvuus Absoluutti- Uudet selluteknologiat Itä-Lapin puuvarannot Kiinalaiset pääomat ovat nen ja maailmalla kasvanut etsineet sijoituskohteita ja kysyntä biopohjaisista Kiinassa sellun kysyntä materiaaleista kovaa. Relatiivinen Stora Enso päätti lak- Puun kuljetus on kannat- Itä-Lapissa on metsäta- kauttaa Kemijärven sel- tavaa vain tietyltä han- loudesta kiinnostuneita ja lutehtaan. Kriisi laukaisi kinta-alueelta. Itä-Lapin asiantuntevia ihmisiä. paikallisesti uusien puuvarannot pitäisi pys- Ongelmana on alueellis- mahdollisuuksien etsin- tyä hyödyntämään riittä- ten pääomien puute ja nän. vän lähellä. suuren teollisen toimijan Käynnissä on yritys- puute. hankkeiden (ja samalla alueiden) välinen kilpa- juoksu siitä, kuka ehtii perustaa suunnitteilla olevat sellutehtaat ennen muita; kansallisella tasolla puun hakkuut voivat kasvaa vain tiettyyn rajaan saakka. Havaittu Aalto-yliopiston sellu- Itä-Lapissa tehdyt laskel- Itä-Lapin toimijat havait- teknologian professori mat osoittivat, että sellu- sivat, että ne voivat itse osoitti Itä-Lapin toimi- tehdas alueella olisi kan- ryhtyä hankkimaan puut- joille ajassa olevat uudet nattava. tuvia pääomia biotuote- teknologiset mahdolli- tehtaalle perustamalla yri- suudet. tyksen ja hankkimalla kumppaneita.

Pietarsaaren seutukunnassa toimijuus on pitkälle jaettua ja paikallinen yhteistyö tiivistä. Vaikutteita ja yhteistyökumppaneita etsitään maailmalta (erityisesti Ruotsista) kansallisen tason näyttäytyessä suhteellisesti ottaen vähemmän tärkeänä. Yrittäjien ja yritysten edustajien rooli kehityksen suuntaamisessa on keskeinen. Kehityspolkuja päivitetään ja laajennetaan pienin askelin mutta proaktiivisesti. Pietarsaaren seutukunnan mahdollisuuksien tilaa luonnehtii yleisellä tasolla sen jatkuva avoimuus. Seutukunnalle ominainen inkrementaaliseen kehittämiseen nojaava ajattelu tarkoittaa samalla jatkuvaa uusien mahdollisuuksien etsintää ja niiden hyödyntämistä. Seutukun- nan yritykset ovat osoittaneet, että laadukkaille niche-tuotteille on mahdollista löytää maailmalta kysyntää. Pietarsaaren seutukunnan mahdollisuuksien tilalle on tyypillistä sen jatkuvan avoimuuden lisäksi vahva pk-sektori, ajassa kumuloitunut vientikaupan osaaminen ja toimijoiden välinen tiivis yhteistyö. Kaikki nämä tekijät tukevat mahdollisuuksien havaitsemista ja hyödyntämistä.

Taulukko KT2. Yhteenveto Pietarsaaren seutukunnan mahdollisuuksien tilasta - näkökul- mana kansainvälinen kauppa

Aikaulottuvuus Alueulottuvuus Toimijaulottuvuus Absoluutti- Laadukkaille niche - Vahva PK-sektori Alueella on runsaasti vien- nen tuotteille on aina kysyn- tiä harjoittavia (monet per- tää maailmalla heomisteisia) pk-yrityksiä. Relatiivinen Jatkuvat mahdollisuu- Seudulla on vahva teol- Alueen yrityksiin on kumu- det lisuuspainotteinen pk- loitunut kv-kaupan osaa- sektori, joka on suun- mista ja kv-suhteita (erityi- tautunut vientikaup- sesti Ruotsi). On myös paan. Tarjolla: keski- Suomen vanhin vienti- määräistä sitoutuneem- osuuskunta. Alueella on paa ja osaavaa ammatil- vahvoja verkostoja, joiden lista työvoimaa sekä hy- välityksellä saa tietoa ja vää kielitaitoa. kumppanuuksia, jotka mahdollistavat vientiä. Havaittu Toimijat havaitsevat ja Alueella tunnistetaan Toimijat hakevat aktiivi- etsivät jatkuvasti tren- omiksi vahvuuksiksi sesti vientimarkkinoita ja se dejä, joiden mukaan korkea laatu ja teollisen on luonnollinen toiminta- tuotteita kehitetään valmistuksen osaami- malli. inkrementaalisesti. nen (erityisaloilla kuten veneteollisuus, koneet ja laitteet)

Salon seutukunnassa muutostoimijuutta on leimannut innovatiivinen yrittäjyys. Elektro- niikkateollisuuden juuret ulottuvat aina sadan vuoden taakse. Nokian matkapuhelinliiketoiminta ja sen erityinen rooli suomalaisessa teollisuushistoriassa on ollut keskeisellä sijalla Salon teollisessa kehityksessä. Nokian varjossa muut muutostoimijuuden muodot ovat jääneet hahmottomiksi. Nokian ja myöhemmin Microsoftin vaikeudet nostivat esiin muut muutostoimijuuden muodot. Kriisi sekä mahdollisti että pakotti esiin paikkajohtajuuden ja institutionaalisen yrittäjyyden. Kaupungin ja sen keskeisten, vahvasti juurtuneiden yritystoimijoiden oli läh- dettävä luomaan yhdessä Salolle uutta monitoimijaista tulevaisuutta.

Salon seudun mahdollisuuksien tila kiteytyy edelleen informaatio- ja kommunikaatiotek- nologian ympärille. Salon ”uuden tulemisen” symboliksi on noussut IoT Campus, joka perustettiin Microsoftilta tyhjiksi jääneisiin tiloihin. Kuten kampuksen nimi kertoo, kehittämi- sen fokus on nk. esineiden internetissä (Internet of Things = IoT), jonka perusajatus on, että tulevaisuudessa erilaiset koneet ja laitteet ”keskustelevat” keskenään langattomasti. Jos No- kian slogan oli ”Connecting People”, on IoT sille luoteva jatko periaatteella ”Connecting Devices”. Kyse on langattoman, digitaalisen viestinnän vallankumouksen uudesta vaiheesta, jossa uskotaan olevan merkittäviä kasvumahdollisuuksia. Salon seudulla on edelleen sellaista osaamista, jolla on mahdollista kytkeytyä tähän kehityskulkuun. IoT Campus tarjoaa uudelle ke- hityspolulle fyysisen infrastruktuurin ja mahdollisuuden synergisen osaamiskeskittymän syntymiselle. Osaamiskeskittymä koostuu pienistä innovatiivisista start up -yrityksistä, suurempien kansainvälisten yritysten toimipaikoista sekä tutkimuksesta ja koulutuksesta. Oleellista tämän mahdollisuuksien tilan kehittymisen kannalta on pitkäjänteinen ja strateginen kehitys- työ.

Taulukko KT3. Yhteenveto Salon seutukunnan mahdollisuuksien tilasta - näkökulmana korkean teknologian alan uudistuminen (IoT).

Aikaulottuvuus Alueulottuvuus Toimijaulottuvuus Absoluutti- Langattoman, digitaalisen Verrattain suotuisa si- Alueella toimii edelleen nen viestinnän vallankumous jainti, valmis infra (IoT useita langattoman vies- on meneillään ja siirty- Campus) tinnän ja digitaalisen tek- mässä uuteen vaiheeseen: nologian yrityksiä. ihmisten välisen viestin- nän lisäksi myös erilaiset koneet ja laitteet ”keskustelevat” keskenään langattomasti (IoT). Relatiivinen Salon seudulla on edel- Nokian myötä alueella on Salossa on sekä pieniä, leen langattoman viestin- myös asiantuntijoita, innovatiivisia start-up - nän ja digitaalisten tekno- jotka osaavat ajatella kan- yrityksiä että suurten logioiden osaamista. sainvälisesti ja riittävän kansainvälisten yritysten ”isosti” suhteessa käyn- toimipaikkoja. Molem- nissä olevaan murrok- mat ovat tärkeitä alueen seen. osaamisen ja verkostojen kehittymisen kannalta. Havaittu Alueella on ryhdytty pa- IoT Campuksen aikaan- Salon kaupunki ja alueen nostamaan IoT-alaan saaminen on ollut Salolle keskeiset yritystoimijat (”Internet of Things”). suuri yhteinen kehittä- näkivät mahdollisuuden Se on digitaalisen liiketoi- misponnistus, joka on luoda Nokian/Microsof- minnan kasvualoja, joka luonut myös uudenlaista tin entisistä tiloista uuden kytkeytyy langattomaan toimintakulttuuria. digitaalisen osaamisen viestintään. keskittymän, joka koostuu yrityksistä tutkijoista ja oppilaitoksista.

Varkauden seutukunnassa muutostoimijuuden muodoista vahvimmin on ollut esillä innovatiivinen yrittäjyys; seudulla on useita kansainvälisessä omistuksessa olevia yrityksiä. Ne toimivat Varkauden seutukunnan elinkeinoelämän moottorina tuottamalla uusia tuotteita ja teknologisia ratkaisuja globaaleille markkinoille. Seutukunnan kokemien kriisien myötä paikkajohtajuus on vahvistunut ja esimerkiksi edellä mainittujen kansainvälisten yritysten paikallisjohtajat ovat aiempaa selkeämmin tunnistaneet oman roolinsa paikallisen toimintaympäristön kehittäjinä sekä seutukunnan puolestapuhujina. Varkauden seudun mahdollisuuksien tila on vahvasti sidoksissa paikalliseen konepajateol- lisuuteen ja erityisesti energiateknologia-alan yrityksiin, jotka ovat vahvistaneet rooliaan seutukunnassa paikallisen metsäteollisuuden kriisin myötä. Kahdella suurella voima- ja soodakattiloita tuottavalla yhtiöllä (Sumitomo SHI FW Oy ja Andritz Oy) on isot yksiköt Varkau- dessa. Edellä mainitut yhtiöt toimivat globaaleilla markkinoilla ja erityisesti viimeiset 6-7 vuotta ovat olleet energiatekniikan laitostoimitusten kulta-aikaa. Metsäteollisuudessa on rakennettu uusia biotuotetehtaita (esimerkiksi Äänekoski), mikä on vaikuttanut positiivisesti esimerkiksi Andritz Oy:n tuotantoon. A. Ahlström Oy:n myytyä omat Varkaudessa toimineet liiketoimintayksikkönsä kansain- välisille yrityksille ovat uudet yritykset nousseet Varkauden ekosysteemin ytimeen. Stora En- son tehdasintegraatti on toiminut testialustana Sumitomon ja Andritzin uusille laitteille ja teknologialle. Ekosysteemiä vahvistaa Savonia-AMK, joka järjestää Varkaudessa energiatekniikan opetusta. Seutukunnan isot energiateknologia-alan yritykset osallistuvat aktiivisesti edellä mainitun koulutusohjelman kehittämiseen.

Taulukko KT4. Yhteenveto Varkauden seutukunnan mahdollisuuksien tilasta - näkökulmana energiateknologia.

Aikaulottuvuus Alueulottuvuus Toimijaulottuvuus Absoluutti- Tarve energian tuotta- Kahdella energiateknolo- Globaaleilla markkinoilla nen miseen polttamalla. gia-alan yrityksellä on isot toimivat energiateknolo- Metsäteollisuudessa ra- yksiköt Varkaudessa. Seu- giayritykset. kennetaan uusia biotuo- dulla on myös paljon edellä tetehtaita. mainittujen yritysten ali- hankkijoita.

Relatiivi- Globaalit sekä kotimai- A. Ahlström Oy:n jälkeen Alueen energiateknolo- nen set energiatekniikan lai- seudulle sijoittuneet kan- gia-alan yrityksissä on tostilaukset. sainväliset yritykset ovat vahvaa osaamista globaa- Viimeiset 6-7 vuotta muodostaneet Varkauteen lien toimitusprojektien ovat olleet kulta-aikaa ekosysteemin. hallinnasta. energiatekniikan laitos- Savonia-AMK järjestää toimituksille. Varkaudessa energiatekniikan opetusta. Alueen energiateknologia-alan yritykset osallistuvat aktiivisesti koulutusohjelman kehittämi- seen. Havaittu Varkaudessa olevat Varkauden seudulla on Alueen energiateknolo- energiateknologia-alan vahvaa energiatekniikkaan gia-alan yritykset ovat yritykset ovat jatkuvasti ja insinööritieteisiin liitty- kansainvälisissä omistuk-

kehittäneet omaa voi- vää osaamista. sissa ja tästä johtuen ne

malaitoksiin liittyvää Energiateknologiayritykset toimivat suoraan globaa- teknologiaansa, minkä ovat markkinajohtajia leilla markkinoilla. avulla yritykset ovat omissa segmenteissään: Su- saavuttaneet globaaleja mitomo kiertopetikattilat ja markkinaosuuksia. Andritz mm. soodakattilat ja haihduttamot.

Johtopäätökset Tekemämme tutkimus on osaltaan vahvistanut toimijuuden ja rakenteiden välisen suhteen tutkimusta erityisesti toimijuuden näkökulmasta. Olemme tässä raportissa nostaneet esille toimijuuden pääpiirteet ja mahdollisuuksien tilojen luonteen case-seutukunnissa. Syvempi analyysi rakenteiden vaikutuksesta toimijuuteen ja päinvastoin on tätä kirjoitettaessa alkanut. Tutkimuksen ensimmäisessä vaiheessa laadittu kvantitatiivinen analyysi osoitti rakenteiden kiistattoman merkityksen kehityspolkujen suuntautumisessa. Rakenteet sekä rajaavat että mahdollistavat monin tavoin kehitystä. Ne muovaavat erityisesti mahdollisuuksien tilojen alue- ja toimijaulottuvuutta. Aikaikkunan auetessa keskeiset toimijat eivät välttämättä havaitse kaikkia mahdollisuuksia tai kykene tarttumaan niihin. Kaiken kaikkiaan mahdollisuuksien tilan käsite on analyyttisesti potentiaalinen. Se antaa mahdollisuuden tarkastella rakenteita ja toimijuutta osana samaa kokonaisuutta. ReGrow -projekti tunnisti mahdollisuuksien tilan kä- sitteen potentiaalin mutta ei vielä vienyt analyysiä kovinkaan pitkälle päähuomion ollessa muutostoimijuudessa.

Tutkimuksemme osoittaa, että Suomen kaltaisessa suhteellisen homogeenisessä unitaari- sen hallintomallin maassa voi olla useita erilaisia tapoja lähestyä kehittämistoimintaa ja kehi- tystä. Toimijuus ei ole samanlaista kaikkialla Suomessa. Sen muodot vaihtelevat ajan kuluessa. Ajan kuluessa muovautuneet hallinnolliset ja taloudelliset rakenteet eivät vaikuta vain kehityspolkuihin vaan myös toimijuuteen. Olemme myös osoittaneet, että toimijuudella todellakin on merkitystä kehityspolkujen suuntaamisessa. Innovatiivinen yrittäjyys tai sen puute ovat keskeisessä asemassa kaikissa seutukunnissa kussakin omalla tavallaan. Lisäksi paikkajohtajuuden merkitys toimintojen suuntaajana, koordinoijana ja mobilisoijana on näkyvä. Oletuk- semme mukaan toimijuus on vahvasti sidoksissa rakenteisiin, mutta toimijoiden on mahdollista luoda, laajentaa tai uudistaa mahdollisuuksien tiloja ja siten joko hyödyntää rakenteita tai muokata niitä. Kehittämämme muutostoimijuuden kolminaisuuden ja mahdollisuuksien tilan teoria osoittautui hedelmälliseksi tavaksi lähestyä toimijuuden ja rakenteiden välistä suhdetta. Kä- sitteellinen viitekehyksemme avasi uudenlaisen näkymän polkukehitykseen ja -kehittämiseen. Samalla on kuitenkin selvää, että teoria ei ole valmis. Toimijuuden eri muotojen väliset suhteet ja päällekkäisyydet on tunnistettava nyt toteutunutta analyyttisemmin. Meidän on yhtäältä sukellettava syvemmälle toimijuuteen ja jatkettava esimerkiksi vallan ja vaikutusvallan käsit- teiden parempaa integroimista teoriaan ja toisaalta jatkettava rakenteiden ja toimijuuden vä- listen peruskysymysten tutkimusta hyödyntäen alan klassikkoja.

Miten kehittyä vastoin kaikkia oletuksia? Kysymykseen ei ole olemassa yhtä tyhjentävää vastausta. Vaikuttaa joka tapauksessa siltä, että tutkimuksen pääväittämät pitävät paikkansa:

• Jotkin alueet todellakin kehittyvät toisia suotuisammin, koska niissä kyetään muita paremmin tunnistamaan, luomaan ja hyödyntämän mahdollisuuksia. • Jotkin alueet todellakin kehittyvät toisia suotuisammin, koska muutostoimijuus on vahvaa ja kykenee sekä rakentamaan että hyödyntämään mahdollisuuksien tiloja.

Yleisen tason väittämien taustalta löytyy erilaisia aika-, paikka- ja kontekstisidonnaisia toimintamalleja, toimijoita ja rakenteita. Pääkysymykseemme ei siis ole yhtä tyhjentävää vastausta. Kuten aina ennenkin, kyse on sekä isoista että pienistä asioista, joissa täytyy onnistua samanaikaisesti. Hyvät tavoitteet täytyy kyetä viemään käytäntöön yksityiskohtia myöten. Taulukon KT1 muutostoimijuuden tärkeimmät ulottuvuudet ja päähuomiot case-seutukunnista kertovat, millaiset isot ja pienet asiat seutukuntien toimijuutta luonnehtivat. ReGrow -projektin havaintojen perusteella on mahdollista nostaa esille kulminaatiopis- teet, joissa kehittyminen vastoin kaikkia oletuksia saattaa ratketa.

Tasapainoinen muutostoimijuus • Hyvin toimiva ja tasapainoinen muutostoimijuuden kolminaisuus kompensoi ohuiden rakenteiden vaikutusta kehitykseen ja mahdollistaa uusien polkujen syntymisen tai vanhojen päi- vittymisen. Kaikissa seutukunnassa muutostoimijuus on aktivoitunut kriisin aikana tai sen jälkeen. Pietarsaaren seutukunta on esimerkki siitä, miten jatkuva kehittäminen liudentaa kriisin vaikutusta. • Innovatiivinen yrittäjyys on alueiden kehityksen ytimessä. Kaikissa case-seutukunnissa yritysten merkitys on ollut keskeinen niin positiivisissa kuin negatiivisissakin kehityskuluissa.

• Paikkajohtajuuden merkitys resurssien ja osaamisen mobilisoimisessa ja koordinoinnissa on keskeinen. Sen muodot ja toimintamallit voivat vaihdella suurestikin alueiden välillä. • Institutionaalinen yrittäjyys on pienillä seutukunnilla suhteellisen ohutta, koska pelikenttää ja ajattelutapoja uudistavat voimat ovat pääosin seutukuntien ulkopuolisia. Jaettu paikkajohtajuus saattaa kuitenkin johtaa pienin askelin institutionaalisiin muutoksiin pitkällä aikavälillä (hiipivä muutos). • Parhaimmillaan alueella kyetään mobilisoimaan sekä seutukunnan että sen ulkopuoliset toimijat paikallisen pelikentän uudistamiseksi (paikkajohtajuudessa ja institutionaalisella yrittä- jyydellä on merkitystä).

Etsintäverkostot • Systemaattinen ideoiden ja vaikutteiden etsintä alueen ulkopuolelta tukee sekä toimijuuden vahvistumista että mahdollisuuksien tilojen rakentamista. Tästä hyvä esimerkki on Pietarsaa- ren seutukunnan tapa etsiä vaikutteita kansainvälisistä verkostoista ja jakaa niitä paikallisesti. Ennen kriisiä Varkauden ja Salon seutukunnissa etsintäverkostot rakentuivat suurten yritysten varaan ja palvelivat ensisijaisesti yritysten omia tarpeita. Kriisien jälkeen etsintäverkostot ovat avautuneet mutta ovat suhteellisen ohuita. Itä-Lapin etsintä on kohdistunut pääosin rahoituksen ja toimijan etsimiseen uudelle biotuotetehtaalle.

Lukkiutumien purku • Ajan kuluessa kehittyneet rakenteet vaikuttavat merkittävällä tavalla kehityspolkuihin. Sekä menneeseen lukkiutuvat tekijät että tulevaisuuden mahdollistajat olisi tunnistettava ja analysoitava sekä mahdollisuuksien mukaan purettava, jotta mahdollisuuksien tiloja olisi mahdollista rakentaa tietoisesti. • Avaintoimijoiden tulisi ymmärtää menneen kehityksen vaikutus sekä paikallisiin toiminta- malleihin että nykyisin rakenteisiin tulevaisuutta mahdollistavana ja estävänä voimana. Toi- mijat ovat usein omien historioidensa vankeja.

Mahdollisuuksien tilojen proaktiivinen hyödyntäminen ja rakentaminen • Parhaimmillaan muutostoimijat tunnistavat, hyödyntävät ja rakentavat yhdessä seutukunnan ulkopuolisten toimijoiden kanssa hyvin kohdennettuja mahdollisuuksien tiloja. Mahdolli- suuksien tilat saattavat olla valmiita hyödynnettäviksi, kunhan ne kyetään tunnistamaan ja tarvittavat voimavarat mobilisoimaan. Usein mahdollisuuksien tila täytyy luoda tietoisesti ja vahvistaa tarvittavia kompetensseja askel askeleelta. Taulukon 3 (sivu 28) kysymysten avulla on mahdollista tarttua nykyistä systemaattisemmin mahdollisuuksien tunnistamiseen ja hyö- dyntämiseen. Olennaista on kysyä mitä mahdollisuuksia on tarjolla ja kenelle sekä miten ne olisi mahdollista hyödyntää.

Etsintäverkostot

Mahdollisuuksien tilojen rakentaminen

Innovatiivinen Paikka- yrittäjyys johtajuus

Institutionaalinen yrittäjyys

MahdollisuuksienMahdollisuuksien tilojen tilojenrakentaminen hyödyntäminen Lukkiutumien purku

Kuva KT2. Muutoksen elementit case-analyysien perusteella

Taulukko KT5. Yhteenveto toimijuudesta case-seutukunnissa

Pietarsaaren seutukunta Itä-Lapin seutukunta Paikkajohtajuus Jaettu ja keskinäinen, uudistuu jat- Perustuu muutaman avainorganisaa- kuvasti yhteistyössä tion ja -yksilön näkemykseen Yritysten edustajat keskeisessä ase- Hajanaista ja satunnaista massa Innovatiivinen Useita omilla markkinoillaan sopi- Teollisuuden kriisin jälkeen vähäistä yrittäjyys van lokeron löytäneitä yrityksiä (lähinnä matkailussa) Institutionaalinen Toteutuu vähittäin paikallisessa Paikallisesti heikkoa, odotukset koh- yrittäjyys verkostossa distuvat seutukunnan ulkopuolisiin toimijoihin Mobilisaatio Pitkälle itseorganisoituvaa Muutama yksilö ja julkiset toimijat or- Satunnaisesti puutteita koordinaa- ganisoivat kehitysprojekteja tiossa Toimintamalli Proaktiivinen Reaktiivinen Polkukehityksen Jatkuva polun laajentaminen ja päi- Polun “entisöinti” ja päivittäminen rationaliteetti vittäminen houkuttelemalla resursseja seutukun- Riskinottovalmius nan ulkopuolelta Muutoskäsitys Hiipivä muutos Äkillinen Tehdään asioita jatkuvasti vähän Tavoitellaan suuria kehitysprojekteja paremmin (rautatiet, kaivokset, investoinnit me- gatehtaisiin) Alueellinen Vahva paikallinen aktiivisuus ja Kansallinen ja kansainvälinen taso pai- suuntautuminen kansainvälinen suuntautuneisuus nottuvat Kansallinen taso vähemmän tärkeä Paikallinen taso vähemmän tärkeä Verkostot Intensiiviset paikalliset verkostot Heikot kansainväliset verkostot kansainvälisille markkinoille pääsyä Heikot paikalliset yritysverkostot, ja siellä toimimista varten melko hyvät julkiset verkostot Vahvat kansainväliset verkostot Kapeat verkostot seutuukunnasta ulos

Varkauden seutukunta Salon seutukunta Paikkajohtajuus Rooli vahvistunut koettujen krii- Rooli vahvistunut rakennemuutoskrii- sien myötä sin jälkeen Innovatiivinen Isot kansainvälisessä omistuksessa Leimannut historiaa, myös tulevai- yrittäjyys olevat yritykset toimivat alueella suutta rakennetaan innovatiivisen yrit- innovatiivisina yrittäjinä täjyyden pohjalle. Institutionaalinen Ei ole ollut kovinkaan vahvaa. Rakennemuutos edellyttänyt myös ins- yrittäjyys Ajoittain paikalliset toimijat ovat titutionaalista muutosta; institutionaali- haastaneet vallalla olevia ajatusmal- nen muutos yhdistyy paikkajohtajuu- leja. teen Mobilisaatio Aikaisemmin A. Ahlström Oy Aiemmin mobilisoijana toimi Salora ja toimi mobilisoijana. Nyt erityisesti Nokia, nyt kaupunki merkittävä toi- kaupunki ja kaupungin kehitys- mija sekä kiinteistöyhtiöt ovat vahvistaneet rooliaan tässä. Toimintamalli Proaktiivinen Reaktiivinen Polkukehityksen Energia- ja selluteknologian laittei- Uudistuneen (korkean teknologian) rationaliteetti den jatkuva kehittäminen. Metsäte- polun jatkaminen laadullisesti erilaisena ollisuudessa tuotannon uudistami- nen ja monipuolistaminen. Muutoskäsitys Rakennemuutoskriisin myötä met- Rakennemuutoskriisi muutti käsityksen säteollisuuden merkitys alueelle vä- kehityksen lineaarisuudesta; ”paradig- hentyi ja energiateknologian merki- man muutos” tys kasvoi. Alueellinen Kansainvälisesti suuntautunut. Paikallisuuden merkitys rajoittunut; suuntautuminen kansainvälinen orientaatio Verkostot Kansainvälisillä yrityksillä globaalit Liiketoimintaperustaiset paikalliset ver- verkostot. Paikallisella tasolla yh- kostot; myös kansainvälisiä verkostoja teistyö on liiketoimintaperustaista.

I Muutostoimijuuden kolminaisuus ja mahdollisuuksien tilat

Markku Sotarauta, Heli Kurikka, Jari Kolehmainen, Sami Sopanen & Markus Grillitsch

1 JOHDANTO

Yhteiskuntien muutos teollisesta aikakaudesta tiedon ja innovaatioiden aikakauteen on vaikuttanut monin tavoin aluekehityksen dynamiikkaan. Tietointensiivisillä toiminnoilla on tai- pumus kasautua suurille kaupunkiseuduille sekä globaalilla että kansallisella tasolla. Silicon Valleyn, Lontoon ja Shanghain kaltaiset osaamisen ja tiedon tihentymät hallitsevat globaalia taloutta (Florida, Adler & Mellander 2017; Glaeser et al. 1992). Suomessa pääkaupunkiseutu yhdessä muiden suurempien kaupunkiseutujen kanssa on kehittynyt hyvin monien seutukuntien kamppaillessa enemmän tai vähemmän vaikeiden haasteiden puristuksessa. Aluerakenne on polarisoitumassa suurimpien kaupunkiseutujen kasvaessa ja maaseudun ajautuessa vähe- nevän väestön ja heikkenevän taloudellisen toimeliaisuuden muodostamaan negatiiviseen ke- hään. Kaikkialla maailmassa monet perinteiset teollisuuskaupungit, maaseudun palvelukeskuk- set ja maaseutualueet etsivät omaa asemaansa teknologisen muutoksen, ilmastonmuutoksen ja poliittisen liikehdinnän puristuksissa. Ydinalueille suuntautuvat investoinnit eittämättä tukevat taloudellista kasvua mutta samalla syventävät alueiden välistä kuilua (Iammarino, Rodríguez-Pose & Storper 2017), mikä on osaltaan vaikuttanut poliittisten ja sosiaalisten jän- nitteiden lisääntymiseen useissa maissa (Rodríguez-Pose 2018). Vaikka ymmärrys tietämysta- louden alueellisesta dynamiikasta on lisääntynyt merkittävästi viimeisen 30 vuoden aikana, on vasta viime aikoina havahduttu laajemmin sen yhteiskuntia polarisoivaan vaikutukseen ja siihen liittyvään poliittiseen liikehdintään.

Pyrkiessään ymmärtämään ja selittämään aluekehityksen dynamiikkaa kansainvälinen alue- kehitystutkimus on osoittanut rakenteiden vaikutuksen aluekehitykseen ja kehityksen polku- riippuvan luonteen (Martin & Sunley 2006). Talousmaantieteessä rakenteellisilla tekijöillä vii- tataan teollisuuden rakenteisiin, alueen kokoon ja sijaintiin, infrastruktuuriin, työvoiman osaamiseen ja väestön koulutustasoon. Aiemmat tutkimukset ovat kuitenkin osoittaneet, että rakenteelliset tekijät eivät selitä tyhjentävästi alueiden taloudellista kehitystä. Rodríguez-Po- sen (2013, 1036) mukaan itsepäisen korkealla tasolla pysyvät taloudellisen kasvun regres- sionanalyysien residuaalit ovat nostaneet osaltaan esille tarpeen tutkia aiempaa systemaattisemmin rakenteiden ja toimijuuden välistä suhdetta. Toimijuutta on tutkittu sen eri muo- doissa runsaastikin esimerkiksi verkostojen, toimintapolitiikkojen ja strategisen suunnittelun näkökulmista, mutta toimijuuden vaikutukset rakenteiden muutoksessa ovat jääneet taustalle sekä teoreettisista että metodologisista syistä. Tiedämme suhteellisen vähän siitä kuka, miten ja millaisten prosessien välityksellä vaikuttaa rakenteellisiin muutoksiin (Asheim, Grillitsch, & Trippl 2016; Boschma 2017; Uyarra et al. 2017). Esittelemme tässä raportissa Regional Growth Against All the Odds -projektin (ReGrow) teorian ja metodologian pääpiirteet sekä Suomen tapaustutkimusten tulokset. Nostimme ReGrow -projektin päätavoitteeksi luoda uudenlaisen toimijuuden ja rakenteet yhdistävän teorian sekä sitä tukevan metodologian kysymällä, miksi jotkin alueet kasvavat paremmin tai huonommin kuin toiset suhteellisen samanlaisista rakenteellisista lähtökohdista huolimatta. Kohdistimme huomion erityisesti kasvukeskusten ulkopuoliseen maailmaan kolmesta syystä: (a) Teorian kehittäminen ja metodologian testaaminen on astetta helpompaa alueilla, joissa rakenteet ovat ohuemmat ja toimijoita vähemmän, (b) toimijuuden suhteellinen merkitys korostuu institutionaalisesti ohuilla alueilla (Tödtling & Trippl 2005) ja (c) kasvukeskusten ulkopuoliset alueet tarvitsevat tukea toimijuuden vahvistamisessa. Uudenlaiseksi kutsumamme teoria rakentuu polkuriippuvuuteen ja polkujen luomiseen, alueellisiin innovaatiojärjestel- miin, institutionaaliseen yrittäjyyteen ja palkkajohtajuuteen kohdistuneiden aiempien tutkimusten varaan. Mikään ei koskaan synny tyhjästä vaan on aina omalla tavallaan polkuriippu- vaa. ReGrow-projektin tavoitteet olivat:

• Tunnistaa rakenteiden vaikutus alueellisessa kehityksessä. • Tunnistaa ne seutukunnat, jotka ovat jollain ajanjaksolla kasvaneet nopeammin tai hitaammin kuin niiden rakenteiden perusteella voisi ennakoida. • Selittää seutukuntien nopeampi tai hitaampi kasvu analysoimalla toimijuutta, verkostoja ja instituutioita. • Luoda kontekstisensitiivinen aluekehityksen malli, joka ottaa huomioon alueiden ominaispiirteet ja antaa mahdollisuuden kohdistaa huomion pitkän aikavälin muutoksiin.

Tutkimuksen empiirinen analyysi toteutettiin Norjassa, Ruotsissa ja Suomessa. Pohjoismai- nen vertailu on tätä raporttia kirjoitettaessa työn alla. Vertailun tulokset julkaistaan vuonna 2022. Tutkimuksen teoria julkaistiin 2020 (Grillitsch & Sotarauta 2020). Lisäksi on julkaistu useita sen keskeisiin osiin pureutuvia artikkeleja ja kirjoja (esim. Grillitsch & Asheim 2018; Sotarauta & Beer 2021; Sotarauta & Suvinen 2018; Sotarauta & Suvinen 2019). Metodologista

kehitystyötä on avattu tarkemmin aiemmissa ja julkaistavina olevissa artikkeleissa ja toimitet- tujen kirjojen kappaleissa (Grillitsch, Rekers & Sotarauta 2021; Grillitsch ym. 2021; Sotarauta, Grillitsch & Rekers, tulossa). Projektin toteuttivat Lundin yliopisto, Tampereen yliopisto ja Stavangerin yliopisto. Sen rahoitti Länsförsäkringar Alliance Research Foundation, Sweden (Grant Number: 2017/01/011).

2 EVOLUUTIOSTA JA INSTITUUTIOSTA KEHITYSPOLKUJEN TUTKI- MUKSEEN

Alueiden taloudellisen kehityksen tutkimukset (talousmaantiede) ovat viimeisen 25 vuoden aikana rakentuneet erityisesti evolutiivisen maantieteen ja institutionaalisen maantieteen varaan. Evolutiivinen talousmaantiede painottaa dynaamisuutta, palautumattomia prosesseja ja innovaatioita tärkeimpinä aluekehitystä muovaavina voimina (Boschma & Martin 2007). Evolutiiviset teoriat ovat 2000-luvulla kohdistaneet huomion erityisesti polkuriippuvuuteen, uusien kehityspolkujen syntyyn ja vallitsevien kehityspolkujen uudistumiseen (Hassink, Isak- sen & Trippl 2019). Evolutiiviset tutkimukset ovat osoittaneet, miten menneet päätökset ja ajassa syntyneet rakenteet sekä mahdollistavat että rajoittavat tulevia kehityskulkuja. Historian muovaamat rakenteet tekevät joistakin kehityskuluista todennäköisempiä kuin toisista (Martin & Sunley 2006). Tutkimukset ovat osoittaneet, miten jatkuvuus rakentuu yksilöiden ja organisaatioi- den, alueella olevan osaamisen ja tiedon, organisationaalisten rutiinien, verkostoihin rakentu- neiden riippuvuuksien ja toiminnoille puitteet asettavien instituutioiden muodostamassa kokonaisuudessa (Grillitsch & Rekers 2016). Polkuriippuvuutta tuottavat elementit ovat suhteellisen jäykkiä ja hitaasti muuttuvia. Teollisten kehityspolkujen suuntautumista analysoineet tutkimukset ovat osoittaneet, että kehityspoluilla on useita erilaisia muotoja, ja että samalla alueella voi samanaikaisesti olla käynnissä useita erilaisia alueen kehitystä muovaavia teollisia kehityskulkuja (Frangenheim, Trippl & Chlebna 2020). Evolutiivinen talousmaantiede ei kuitenkaan ole toivotulla tavalla lisännyt ymmärrystämme siitä, miten kehityspolut syntyvät ja muuntuvat tai miten niiden kehityskulkuihin vaikutetaan mikrotasolla (Boschma 2017). Evolutiivisen maantieteen proba- bilistinen luonne ei ole juurikaan auttanut ymmärtämään erilaisten toimijoiden ja toimijoiden muodostamien ryhmittymien vaikutusta tulevaisuuden kehityspolkujen suuntautumisessa. Uusia polkuja synnyttävien mekanismien tarkemman analyysin tarve on sen sijaan noussut selkeästi esille. (Dawley 2014; Jolly, Grillitsch & Hansen 2020). Institutionaalisissa aluetutkimuksissa on tutkittu taloudellisen toiminnan taustalla olevia kulttuurisia, sosiaalisia ja poliittisia toimintamalleja, käytäntöjä, sääntöjä ja normeja. Analyy- siyksikköinä ovat olleet muun muassa organisationaalinen kenttä ja hallintamekanismit tai vaikkapa innovaatiojärjestelmät (Amin & Thrift 1994, Wood & Valler 2001). Institutionaali- nen tutkimusote tarjoaa käsitteellisen viitekehyksen yhtäältä alueiden taloudellisen kehityksen ja sitä muokkaavien voimien suhteen ymmärtämiselle ja toisaalta alueiden välisten erojen aiempaa tarkemmalle analyysille institutionaalisen uppoutuneisuuden viitekehyksessä (Gert- ler 2010; Rodriguez-Pose 2013).

Alueellisten innovaatiojärjestelmien tutkimus on ollut institutionaalisen maantieteen nä- kyvin kokonaisuus 1990-luvulta alkaen. Monet tutkimukset ovat osoittaneet miten sekä muodolliset että epämuodolliset instituutiot rakentavat edellytykset innovatiivisuudelle ja siten myös mahdollisuuksien tunnistamiselle ja niihin tarttumiselle aluetasolla (Cooke & Morgan 1998; Doloreux & Parto 2005; Tödtling & Trippl 2005; Kolehmainen 2016). Tutkimukset markkinatalouden erilaisista muodoista (varietes of capitalism) ja kansallisista innovaatiojär- jestelmistä ovat merkittävästi lisänneet ymmärrystemme siitä, miten eri tavoin instituutiot muovaavat niin kansakuntien kuin alueidenkin kilpailukykyä ja innovatiivisuutta (Hall & Sos- kice 2001; Lundvall 2007; Nelson 1993; Freeman 1995). Evolutiivisen talousmaantieteen tavoin myöskään institutionaalisiin teorioihin juurtuneet aluetutkimukset eivät ole merkittävästi lisänneet ymmärrystämme toimijuuden vaikutuksista rakenteellisissa muutoksissa. Evolutiivinen talousmaantiede ja institutionaalinen maantiede tarjoavat joka tapauksessa toimijuuteen, polkuriippuvuuteen ja kehityspolkuihin kohdistuville tutkimuksille hedelmällisen maaperän. Johtamistutkimuksen, sosiologian ja politiikan tutkimuksen pitkät perinteet toimijuuden tutkimuksessa eivät tarjoa suoraa apua aluekehitystutki- mukseen, koska ne eivät pyri selittämään ja ymmärtämään alueiden rakenteellista muutosta pitkällä aikavälillä. Yksi 2000-luvun vastauksista esille nousseisiin teoreettismetodologisiin haasteisin on teollisuuden ja/tai alueiden kehityspolkuihin kohdistuva tutkimus. Se rakentuu evolutiivisen dynaamisen aikakäsityksen varaan, mutta kohdistaa huomion aiempaa tarkemmin toimijoihin ja uutta luoviin institutionaalisiin mekanismeihin.

3 TEORIA PÄHKINÄNKUORESSA: MUUTOSTOIMIJUUDEN KOLMI- NAISUUS JA MAHDOLLISUUKSIEN TILAT

Aluekehitystutkimuksen yhdeksi suurimmista haasteista on noussut toimijuuden ja rakenteet yhdistävän teorian ja sen tutkimusta tukevan metodologian kehittäminen. Yhdistimme ReGrow -projektissa sekä käsitteellisesti että metodologisesti polkuriippuvat rakenteelliset voimat ja toimijoiden tietoisesti luomat ja hyödyntämät mahdollisuudet kahden toisiinsa lin- kittyneen väittämän avulla (Grillitsch & Sotarauta 2020):

• Jotkin alueet kehittyvät toisia suotuisammin, koska niissä kyetään muita paremmin tunnistamaan ja luomaan mahdollisuuksia. • Jotkin alueet kehittyvät toisia suotuisammin, koska muutostoimijuus on vahvaa ja kykenee sekä rakentamaan että hyödyntämään mahdollisuuksien tiloja.

Rakensimme näiden kahden väittämän varaan teoreettisen mallin, jonka avulla on mahdollista tarkastella toimijuuden ja rakenteiden (havaittu aluekehitys) välisiä suhteita mahdollisuuksien tilan käsitteen toimiessa välittävänä mekanismina (kuva 1). Avaamme teorian taustalla olevan ajattelun tarkastelemalla kehityspolun, toimijuuden ja mahdollisuuksien tilan kä- sitteitä.

muuttaa

Mahdollisuuksien Havaittu Muutostoimijuus tilat aluekehitys

rakentaa mahdollistaa Muutokset Innovatiivinen yrittäjyys Aikaan sidotut kehityspoluissa Institutionaalinen yrittäjyys Paikkaan sidotut Paikkaperustainen johtajuus Toimijaan sidotut Muutokset toimiala- ja väestörakenteessa

muovaa Kuva 1. Teoreettinen malli

3.1 Kehityspolut Kehityspolkujen tutkimus kohdistaa huomion siihen, miten rakenteet ja endogeeniset kehi- tysprosessit muokkaavat alueen taloudellista kehitystä. Tieteellisen tutkimuksen korkea taso, vahva yrittäjyyskulttuuri ja hyvin toimivat globaalit yhteydet sekä näiden varassa jatkuvasti kehittyvät uuden tiedon luomisen ja hyödyntämisen järjestelmät ja prosessit ovat usein kehityspolkujen ytimessä (Bathelt ym. 2004). Polkututkimuksen yksi keskeisimmistä motivaati- oista on tuottaa aiempaa dynaamisempi näkymä aluekehitykseen ja -kehittämiseen. Esimer- kiksi Garudin ja Karnøen (2003) tutkimus tuulivoimalateollisuuden kehityskulusta Tanskassa osoitti miten sosiotekniset järjestelmät määrittivät monin tavoin alan kehitystä pitkällä aika- välillä. Tuulivoimateollisuuden avaintoimijat haarukoivat tulevaisuuden mahdollisuuksia, koordinoivat toimia yli institutionaalisten ja organisationaalisten rajojen sekä tulkitsivat tulevaa suhteessa taakse jääneeseen kehitykseen. Garud, Kumaraswarny ja Karnøe (2010, 770) tiivistävät näkemyksensä toteamalla toimijoiden mobilisoivan menneisyyden luodakseen tulevaisuuden vaihtoehtoja. Polkuteoria tarjoaa viitekehyksen tarkastella toimijuutta aikaan si- dottuna sosiaalisena prosessina. Määrittelemme teollisen kehityspolun Binziä ym. (2016) sekä Steeniä ja Hansenia (2018, 191) soveltaen sarjaksi toiminnallisesti toisiinsa jollain tavalla kytköksissä olevia kehitysprosesseja, organisaatioita, tuotteita ja/tai palveluja sekä yrityksiä ja muita toimijoita, jotka yh- dessä suuntaavat kehityksen kulkua. Kehityspolku on sarja ajassa toisiinsa kytkeytyneitä ja toisiaan tukevia tapahtumia ja toimintoja. Kehityspolkujen tutkimus on 2010-luvulla laajen- tunut nopeasti ja tutkijat ovat tyypitelleet kehityspolut useilla erilaisilla tavoilla. Erot ovat suhteellisen vähäisiä ja 2020-luvun alkuvuosina konsensus kehityspolkujen päätyypeistä on syntymässä. Tiivistämme kehityspolkujen päätyypit Grillitschin ja Asheimin (2018) jaottelun perusteella. He ovat tunnistaneet kolme peruspolkutyyppiä: Uusien polkujen synty, polkujen diversifioituminen ja polkujen päivittäminen (upgrading) (ks. esimerkiksi Květoň & Blažek 2018; Isaksen & jacobsen 2016; Lester & Sotarauta 2007). Uuden kehityspolun synty viittaa sellaiseen kehityskulkuun, jossa alueelle syntyy täysin uusi teollisuudenala. Uuden kehityspolun synty edellyttää yleensä radikaaleja teknologisia innovaatioita, uusia liiketoimintamalleja sekä käyttäjälähtöisiä ja sosiaalisia innovaatioita. Uusi kehityspolku toimii alueelle aiemmin vierailla markkinoilla sekä rakentuu uudenlaisen osaamisen ja teknologisen kyvykkyyden varaan. Koska teollisuudenalat ovat alueella uusia, myös

alan identiteetin luominen ja vahvistaminen nousevat tärkeään asemaan. Usein uudella teol- lisuudenalalla on omat lähetyssaarnaajansa, joiden tehtävänä on levittää tietoa ja ymmärrystä alan luonteesta ja tarpeista. Uusi alueellinen kehityspolku voi syntyä myös siten, että alueelle siirtyy sen ulkopuolelta uutta teollisuutta. Diversifikaatio viittaa sellaisiin kehityskulkuihin, joissa alueella oleva teollisuus kykenee uudistamaan ydinteknologioitaan ja -osaamistaan siten, että koko teollisuudenala muuntuu ajan kuluessa uudenlaiseksi. Esimerkiksi Akron tunnettiin aikanaan maailman rengaspääkau- punkina, mutta globaalin kilpailun myötä rengasteollisuus ajautui suuriin vaikeuksiin. Ren- gasteollisuuden osaaminen kyettiin muuntamaan polymeeriteollisuudeksi (ks. Safford 2004; Lester & Sotarauta 2007). Teollisuuden muuntuessa joksikin aiemmasta poikkeavaksi myös sen tiedon ja osaamisen tarpeet muuttuvat. Diversifioitunut kehityspolku vie alueen toimijat uusille markkinoille; perinteinen osaaminen ja teknologiset kyvykkyydet sovitetaan uudenlai- siin toimintoihin ja aiemmasta poikkeavaan kysyntään. Kehityspolun päivittyminen viittaa sellaisiin tapauksiin, joissa alueella jo oleva teollisuus säilyttää aiemman identiteettinsä ja markkinansa, mutta kykenee uudistumaan sisäisesti siten, että perinteisiin tuotteisiin ja prosesseihin kyetään liittämään uutta osaamista ja teknologiaa. Tässä kehityskulussa markkinat, asiakkaat, teknologia ja ydinkompetenssit pysyvät pääosin samoina. Olemassa olevan teollisuuden sisäisessä muutosprosessissa avaintoimijoita ovat usein yritykset itse, mutta myös yliopistolla voi olla keskeinen rooli muutosprosessissa. Useimmiten yliopistojen rooli kulminoituu yritysten muutosprosessissa esille nousevien on- gelmien ratkaisemiseen yhdessä yritysten kanssa. Polun päivittämisessä voi olla kyse uuden paremman markkina-aseman rakentamisesta globaaleissa tuotantoverkostoissa, uuden teknologian avulla tuotteiden parantamisesta tai uuden nichen luomisesta olemassa olevilla markkinoilla. Edellä lyhyesti esiteltyjen kolmen polkutyypin lisäksi voidaan tunnistaa polun laajentumi- nen, joka viittaa olemassa olevan kehityspolun kasvuun vanhalta pohjalta. Markkinat, kom- petenssit ja teknologiset kyvykkyydet pysyvät pääosin samoina, mutta esimerkiksi hyvästä markkinatilanteesta johtuen alan on mahdollista kasvaa (Isaksen & Jacobsen 2016). Kehitys- polku voi myös ehtyä kokonaan johtuen kyvyttömyydestä sopeutua markkinoiden ja teknologian muutoksiin (ks. Beer 2018; Květoň & Blažek 2018).

Polkuriippuvuuden käsite muistuttaa meitä siitä, että historia muovaa merkittävällä tavalla niin nykyisyyttä kuin tulevaakin. Polkuriippuvuuden tutkimus painottaa kasautuvia hyötyjä ja haittoja ja sellaista toimintaympäristöstä tulevaa palautetta, joka vahvistaa ja ylläpitää instituutioita ja näin kiinnittää instituutiot taakse jääneeseen polkuun. Samalla instituutiot omalta osaltaan lukitsevat alueen menneeseen (ks. polkuriippuvuudesta Martin & Sunley 2006). Grapherin (1993) mukaan dynaaminen teollinen ilmapiiri, alueen erikoistumista palveleva infrastruktuuri, yritysten välinen tiivis yhteistyö ja vahva tuki niin paikallishallinnolta kuin yliopistoltakin saattavat markkinoiden muuttuessa kääntyä muutoksen esteiksi alueellisten rakenteiden palvellessa enemmän mennyttä kuin tulevaa. Uudet ideat jäävät kiertämään pientä paikallista kehää ja alueen ydinverkostot lukkiutuvat omaan ajattelunsa. Alue ja sen tärkeim- mät toimialat sopeutuvat paikalliseen toimintaympäristöön eivätkä globaaleihin muutoksiin

turvatakseen sisäisen koheesion; huomio kohdistuu olemassa olevien kehityspolkujen ylläpi- tämiseen niiden uudistamisen tai uusien kehityspolkujen luomisen sijaan. Toimintaympäris- tön muuttuessa alueen vahvuudet saattavat kuitenkin kääntyä menneeseen lukitseviksi voi- miksi. Oletuksemme on, että vahva muutostoimijuus yhtäältä laskee lukkiutumien todennäköisyyttä ja toisaalta luo edellytykset uusien polkujen rakentamiselle. Menneeseen kehityspolkuun lukkiutuminen voidaan toimijuuden näkökulmasta jakaa funktionaaliseen, kognitiiviseen ja poliittiseen lukkiutumiseen (taulukko 1).

Taulukko 1. Lukkiutumat (Sotarauta ym. 2009 Grapheria 1993, Cookea & Schienstockia 1996 ja Sotarauta & Linnamaata 1999 soveltaen).

Funktionaalinen Kognitiivinen Poliittinen lukkiutuminen lukkiutuminen lukkiutuminen

Vallitseviin toimintatapoihin Vallitseviin ajattelumalleihin Saavutettuihin etuihin lukkiu- lukkiutuminen lukkiutuminen tuminen Ominaispiirteet Ominaispiirteet Ominaispiirteet Sulkeutuneet verkostot Vakiintunut kielenkäyttö Kau- Oman edun turvaaminen Vain joillakin toimijoilla on punkiseudun kehittämisessä Koalitiot pitävät kiinni ole- etuoikeus osallistua verkoston vallitsevat ajattelumallit perus- massa olevasta kehitysurasta ja toimintaan, vaarana on sisään- tuvat tiettyyn kielenkäyttöön, sen toimintamalleista turvatak- päin kääntyneiden koalitioiden tiettyyn tapaan esittää asiat, seen omat etunsa. syntyminen. tiettyihin sopimuskäytäntöihin Haavoittuvuus uusien sääntöjen ja tiettyyn tietopohjaan. Suljetut koalitiot edessä Koalitiot saattavat toimin- Näkemyksen kapeus Aiemman menestyksellisen ke- taympäristön muuttuessa pitää Vanhat ajattelumallit ja toi- hityksen vaiheissa alueelle on kiinni vanhoista toimintamal- mintatavat sekä niitä heijastava syntynyt virallisia ja epäviralli- leista ja saavutetuista eduista kielenkäyttö saattavat estää sia verkostoja, jotka eivät ehkä sekä siten estää tietopohjan ja uusien mahdollisuuksien ha- ole aiemmin kohdanneet innovaatioperustan laajentami- vaitsemisen. Tällöin koko jär- muuttuvaa tilannetta ja/tai sen, uuden syntymisen jestelmä saattaa keskittyä ole- kriisiä. massa olevan tilanteen ylläpi- Reflektion puute tämiseen. Vakiintuneet verkostot ja niiden toimintatavat eivät ole riit- tävän avoimia, itsekriittisiä ja keskustelevia uusille ajatuksille ja toimintaympäristön muu- toksille kyetäkseen luomaan uutta.

3.2 Muutostoimijuus Rakenteiden ja toimijuuden välinen suhde on yksi yhteiskuntatieteitä yhdistävistä suurista ky- symyksistä. Emme seuraa Giddensin (2007 [1984]) dualistisia jalanjälkiä, vaan näemme rakenteen ja toimijuuden välisen suhteen Jessopin (2001) tavoin relationaalisena. Lähestymme rakenteita suhteessa toimijoihin ja toimintaan ja päinvastoin. Relationaalinen lähestymistapa huomioi aluekehityksen dynaamisen ja emergentin luonteen. Lisäksi se huomioi toimijoiden

erilaiset kyvykkyydet, resurssit ja mahdollisuudet vaikuttaa kehityksen kulkuun (Gregson, 2005; Coe & Jordhus-Lier 2011). Toimijuutta on ihmisten ja ihmisten muodostamien ryhmittymien kyky toimia ja tuottaa havaittavissa olevia seurauksia toiminnan kohteena olevassa kokonaisuudessa (Gregory et al., 2009). Toimijuus viittaa tietoiseen, päämäärähakuiseen ja merkitykselliseen toimintaan sekä erilaisten toimintojen aiottuihin ja ennakoimattomiin seurauksiin. Se on tietoista toimijoiden omista intresseistä nousevaa toimintaa alueen kehittämiseksi. Toimijuus täsmentyy hyvin monin tavoin riippuen kohteena olevasta alueesta, kehittämisen tavoitteista ja painopisteistä sekä toimijoista itsestään. Pyrkiessään muokkaamaan kehityspolkuja toimijat ovat sekä alueella toi- mivien muiden toimijoiden että alueen ulkopuolisten toimijoiden aikomusten ja toimenpitei- den puristuksessa (Sotarauta 2016). Lisäksi toimintaympäristöstä nousevat yllättävät emer- gentit kehityskulut voivat haastaa parhaatkin aikomukset. Aluekehityksessä toimijuus on läh- tökohtaisesti monitoimijaista ja se määrittyy hajautuneena ja monin tavoin kehittämisen koh- teisiin uppoutuneena prosessina (Garud & Karnøe 2003; Dawley ym 2014; Sotarauta & Su- vinen 2018). Tarkastelemme rakenteita ja instituutioita alhaalta ylös, kun yleensä alueen kehityskulkuja tarkastellaan rakenteista ja instituutioista käsin ylhäältä alas (Sotarauta 2017). Oletuksemme on, että alhaalta ylös suuntautuva muutosprosessien analyysi mahdollistaa muutoksen havain- noimisen toimijoiden näkökulmasta. Olennaista on kysyä, miten rakenteet yhtäältä mahdollistavat ja toisaalta rajoittavat toimijoiden pyrkimyksiä suunnata kehityksen kulkua. Emme siis tarkastele toimijuutta yksittäisten toimijoiden toimintoina tai ominaisuuksina vaan vuo- rovaikutussuhteina. Koska tutkimus kohdistui aluekehitykseen, päädyimme painottamaan transformationaalista muutostoimijuutta ja jättämään transaktiivisen toimijuuden pääosin tarkastelun ulkopuolelle. Transaktiivinen toimijuus viittaa sellaiseen toimintaan, jossa tartutaan tunnistettuihin tarpei- siin ja tuotetaan selkeiden tavoitteiden ohjaamana selkeä tuotos ja yleensä vielä ennalta mää- ritellyssä ajassa. Tranformationaalinen toimijuus tähtää institutionaalisiin muutoksiin. Sen lähtökohtana ovat latentit tarpeet ja aikajänne on avoin. Transformaationaalisessa toimijuudessa tavoitteet ovat epäselviä ja niiden etsiminen ja muovaaminen ovat toiminnan ytimessä (Bass & Riggio 2008). Transformationaalinen ja transaktiivinen toimijuus eivät ole toisiaan poissulkevia, vaan ne esiintyvät yleensä rinnakkain ja sisäkkäin (taulukko 2). Aluekehittämisen tulisi ihannetilassa olla luonteeltaan transformationaalista, mutta varsin usein se jää transaktiiviseksi. Tämä joh- tuu yleensä haasteiden suuruudesta suhteessa käytettävissä oleviin resursseihin. Lisäksi alue- kehittämisen monisyinen ja monitoimijainen luonne vaikeuttaa latenttien tarpeiden tunnistamista ja uusien kehityspolkujen luomista. Näistä syistä johtuen toimijuus on Sotaraudan ja Suvisen (2019) mukaan luonteeltaan generatiivista. Toimijoilla ei ole riittävästi resursseja tai valtaa toteuttaa transformationaalisia muutoksia. Sen sijaan toimijat mobilisoivat, suuntaavat ja koordinoivat erilaisia kehittämisprosesseja tavoitteena käynnistää lyhyellä aikavälillä kokei- levia projekteja ja pitkällä aikavälillä tuottaa institutionaalisia muutoksia.

Taulukko 2. Transaktiivinen, generatiivinen ja transformationaalinen toimijuus (Bass & Rig- gio 2008; Sotarauta 2016; Sotarauta & Suvinen 2019)

Transaktiivinen Generatiivinen Transformationaalinen Tarve / Tunnistettu tarve Tunnistettujen tarpeiden Latentti tarve kysyntä uudelleen muotoilu Lähestymis- Konkreettinen tuotos Prosessi Institutionaaliset muutok- tapa set Tavoitteet Selkeät Selkeiden ja avoimien ta- Avoimia, epäselviä voitteiden kombinaatio Aika Määritelty Prosessit ja välitavoitteet Avoin määritelty, pitkän aikavä- lin muutos avoin

Tekemämme laajan kirjallisuusanalyysin perusteella muutostoimijuuden kolme päätyppiä aluekehityksessä ovat innovatiivinen yrittäjyys, institutionaalinen yrittäjyys ja paikkajohtajuus (Grillitsch & Sotarauta 2020). Oletamme, että ne vaikuttavat toisiinsa ja ovat toisistaan riip- puvaisia. Oletamme myös, että ne ovat transformationaalisen ja generatiivien muutostoimijuuden ydin (Sotarauta ym. 2020). Kokonaisuutena ne muodostavat integroidun käsitteellisen viitekehyksen, jota kutsumme muutostoimijuuden kolminaisuudeksi (Trinity of Change Agency [TCA]). Innovatiivisen yrittäjyyden on monissa tutkimuksissa tunnistettu olevan teollisen muutoksen ja samalla kehityspolkujen uudistumisen ytimessä (Shane & Venkataraman 2000). Yrittäjyys on avainasemassa uusien tuotteiden ja palvelujen tuomisessa markkinoille ja laajemmin sen on todettu olevan alkusysäys teollisuuden erikoistumiselle ja alueiden muutokselle. Yrittäjyy- dessä keskeistä on riskien ottaminen ja sietäminen sekä mahdollisuuksien tunnistaminen (Fo- ray et al. 2009; Feldman 2014). Viittamme innovaatiolla uuteen asiaan tai ideaan, joka on sovellettu ja josta saadaan lisäarvoa. Innovatiivisuus taas viittaa kykyyn ja haluun tuottaa ja ottaa käyttöön innovaatioita. Olemme siis erityisesti kiinnostuneita uudistavasta ja uudistu- vasta yrittäjyydestä. Institutionaaliset yrittäjät ovat innovatiivisten yrittäjien tavoin valmiita ottamaan riskejä ja etsimään uusia mahdollisuuksia mutta eivät tavoitellakseen taloudellista hyötyä vaan muut- taakseen pelin sääntöjä ja pelikenttää. Institutionaaliset yrittäjät uudistavat vallitsevia normeja ja toimintamalleja ja siten luovat vaihtoehtoisia sääntöjä ja toimintamalleja (Battilana, Leca & Boxenbaum 2009). Aiempi tutkimus on osoittanut, että aluekehittämisessä ja innovaatiojär- jestelmien uudistamisessa institutionaalinen yrittäjyys on kollektiivinen ja prosessuaalinen toimijuuden muoto (Sotarauta & Mustikkamäki 2015; Sotarauta et al. 2020). Alueellisten kehityspolkujen suuntaamisessa on mitä suurimmassa määrin kyse heterogee- nisen toimijaJ.n toimintojen ja resurssien mobilisoimisesta, koordinoimisesta, suuntaamisesta ja uusien polkujen merkityksen rakentamisesta. Muutostoimijuuden kolminaisuuden kolmas elementti on näin ollen paikkajohtajuus. Se viittaa resurssien, osaamisen ja tiedon mobilisoin- tiin ja koordinointiin paikallista kehitystä tukevalla tavalla. Sen avulla on mahdollista analysoida ketkä suuntaavat aluekehittämistä ja miten he sen tekevät eli etsiä vastausta kysymykseen keillä on johtajuus kehityspolkujen suuntaamisessa (Gibney, Copeland, & Murie 2009;

Sydow ym 2011; Sotarauta & Beer 2021). Johtajuus edellyttää sekä paikan että avainproses- sien hyvää ymmärrystä. Paikkaperustaisten johtajien tulisi tuntea erilaiset oman alueen kehitykseen vaikuttavat tekijät; heidän tulisi ennen kaikkea kohdistaa huomio siihen, miten alueen ja sen ulkopuoliset resurssit ja osaaminen olisi mahdollista mobilisoida alueen kehitystä pal- velevalla tavalla. Muutostoimijuus on yhtäältä irrottautumista vanhoista rakenteista (jos ne eivät palvele tulevaisuuden luomista) ja toisaalta tulevaisuuden mahdollisuuksien tunnistamista ja rakentamista. Se on myös ajattelumallien, odotusten ja ydintiedon muovaamista palvelemaan tulevaisuutta eikä mennyttä. Oletuksemme on, että alueellisten kehityspolkujen kontekstissa mik- rotason prosesseja on mahdollista tutkia muutostoimijuuden kolmen päätyypin välisenä vuo- rovaikutuksena ja yhteisvaikutuksena. Aiempien tutkimusten perusteella oletamme myös, että innovatiivinen yrittäjyys on muutoksen ytimessä, ja että institutionaaliset yrittäjät ja paikka- johtajat pyrkivät osaltaan luomaan innovatiivisille yrittäjille sellaisia alueellisia ja paikallisia rakenteita ja olosuhteita, jotka nostavat innovatiivisten yrittäjien todennäköisyyttä menestyä omilla markkinoillaan ja tuottaa innovaatioita. Institutionaaliset yrittäjät luovat innovatiivi- selle yrittäjyydelle tilaa ja mahdollisuuksia muokkaamalla pelikenttää ja pelin sääntöjä ja paik- kajohtajat suuntaavat kehitysprosesseja. Johtajuutta tarvitaan suuntaamaan julkisten resurssien käyttöä ja ajoittain myös heterogeenista yrittäjäkenttää siten, että hajanaiset resurssit ky- ettäisiin suuntaamaan sekä kokonaisuutta että yksittäisten toimijoiden pyrkimyksiä mahdollisimman hyvin tukevalla tavalla. Aiemmat tutkimuksemme ovat osoittaneet, että muutostoimijuuden kolme perustyyppiä lomittuvat monin tavoin ja kertovat ennen kaikkea toimijoiden rooleista osana kokonaisuutta ja suhteista toisiin toimijoihin (Sotarauta ym. 2020).

3.3 Mahdollisuuksien tila Rakenteiden tutkimuksessa käytetyt käsitteet ja muuttujat jäävät yleensä suhteellisen kauas toiminnasta, vaikka intuitiivisesti niiden välinen yhteys olisikin hahmotettavissa. Aivan samalla tavalla tiedostamme ja tunnistamme yleensä rakenteiden toimintaa mahdollistavan ja rajaavan vaikutuksen. Yhdistämme mahdollisuuksien tilan käsitteen avulla rakenteen ja toimijuuden toisiinsa (kuva 2). Mahdollisuuksien tila on samanaikaisesti sekä rakenteellinen että toimijariippuvainen. Ajatus mahdollisuuksien tiloista rakentuu aiemmalle tutkimukselle siitä, miten aktiivisella kehittämistoiminnalla on mahdollista luoda yrittäjyydelle hyvät olosuhteet (Asheim et al., 2011).

Toimijuus

Institutionaalinen Innovatiivinen Paikkaperustainen yrittäjyys yrittäjyys johtajuus

Mahdollisuuksien tila

Rakenteet

Kuva 2. Mahdollisuuksien tila muutostoimijuuden ja rakenteen välisenä linkkinä

Mahdollisuuksien tilalla tarkoitetaan kaikkia niitä sosiaalisia ja fyysisiä rakenteita ja toimijoiden välisiä suhteita, jotka mahdollistavat, rajoittavat tai kannustavat uusien mahdollisuuksien etsintään ja hyödyntämiseen. Mahdollisuuksien tila on riippuvainen toimijoiden kyvyistä havaita, tunnistaa ja luoda mahdollisuuksia (Grillitsch & Sotarauta 2020). Se on näin ollen monien intentionaalisten ja omilla tavoillaan merkityksellisten toimintojen ja toimijoiden sekä rakenteen välinen yhteys (nexus). Mahdollisuuksien tilat ovat erilaisia erilaisilla alueilla ja ne eroavat myös toimijoiden välillä. Ne eivät ole staattisia vaan jatkuvassa muutoksen tilassa. Mahdollisuuksien tila koostuu kolmesta ulottuvuudesta (ks. myös kuva 3):

• Aikaulottuvuus perustuu siihen, mikä on mahdollista milläkin ajanhetkellä ottaen huomioon globaalit markkinat, kansalliset, alueelliset ja paikalliset instituutiot ja resurssit yhdistettynä paikalliseen johtajuuteen ja osaamiseen (teknologinen kehitys, rahoitusmahdollisuudet, toimijoiden osaaminen jne). • Alueulottuvuus rakentuu alueelle ajan kuluessa syntyneen osaamisen ja resurssien sekä alueen fyysisten edellytysten varaan (resurssit, osaaminen, tieto, instituutiot). • Toimijaulottuvuus rakentuu toimijoiden havaitsemien ja luomien mahdollisuuksien varaan sekä toimijoiden kykyyn havaita ja hyödyntää mahdollisuuksia.

Toimijaulottuvuus on sidoksissa paikallisten toimijoiden verkostoihin alueella ja sieltä ulos sekä toimijoiden institutionaaliseen asemaan yhteiskunnassa sekä kykyyn tunnistaa mahdollisuuksia ja tarttua niihin. Toimijoiden kyky havaita mahdollisuuksia ja tarttua niihin on kytköksissä aiempiin kokemuksiin ja niistä oppimiseen. Kuten Grillitsch (2018) toteaa, liikkuvuus erilaisista tehtävistä toisiin ja yksilöiden useat rinnakkaiset positiot vaikuttavat yksilöiden kykyyn tunnistaa erilaisia mahdollisuuksia ja tarttua niihin (Suvinen, 2014). Saxenian ja Sabel (2008) ovat osoittaneet miten yksilöiden kokemukset useasta maasta tai siirtyminen työtehtävien pe- rässä maasta toiseen edistävät oppimista, luovat kytkentöjä erilaisten ihmisten ja ideoiden välille ja näin vahvistavat alueiden muutoskapasiteettia alhaalta ylös. Teknologian kehitys on vähentänyt merkittävästi paikkariippuvuutta, mutta tästä huolimatta alueen rakenteet muovaavat toimijoiden kykyä etsiä ja havaita mahdollisuuksia sekä tarttua niihin. Alueulottuvuus rakentuu alueen rakenteellisten rajoitteiden ja mahdollistajien varaan (Gril- litsch & Asheim 2018). Näitä ovat toimialarakenne, institutionaalinen rakenne ja paikalliset innovaatiotoiminnan tukirakenteet sekä yrittäjyyden tila ja laajuus. Myös alueiden erikoistu- neisuus ja moninaisuus vaikuttavat mahdollisuuksien tiloihin. Erikoistuneilla alueilla mahdollisuuksien tilat rakentuvat todennäköisimmin hallitsevien yritysten ja toimialojen ympärille, kun taas monipuolisen toimialarakenteen alueilla mahdollisuuksien tilojen kirjo on suurempi. Monipuolisilla alueilla toimialojen välinen vuorovaikutus saattaa synnyttää uusia mahdollisuuksia. Tämä edellyttää tyypillisesti toisistaan erillisen osaamisen ja tiedon kombinoimista tavalla tai toisella (Boschma 2005; Strambach & Klement 2012). Aikaulottuvuus viittaa siihen, mikä milloinkin on mahdollista suhteessa alueen sisäisiin ja ulkoisiin resursseihin sekä kysyntään maailmalla. Kingdonia (1995) soveltaen mahdollisuuksien ikkuna avautuu alueella olevan osaamisen ja resurssien, markkinoiden ja politiikan koh- datessa toisensa suotuisalla tavalla tietyllä ajanhetkellä. Mahdollisuuksien ikkuna tarkoittaa sitä hetkeä, jolloin esimerkiksi uusille tuotteille tai palveluille on mahdollista löytää markkinat, paikallisten rakenteiden uudistamiselle resursseja tai ongelmalle on mahdollista löytää juuri

oikea ratkaisu sitä tukevassa kontekstissa. Esimerkkinä voimme ajatella tekoälyn nopeaa ke- hitystä ja sen tarjoamia mahdollisuuksia. Sen tarjoamiin mahdollisuuksiin tarttuminen edel- lyttää, että toimijat löytävät oman paikkansa uudessa kehityskulussa ja kykenevät tarttumaan avautumassa olevaan mahdollisuuteen.

Aikaulottuvuus

Realisoituneet Mahdollisuuksien tila mahdollisuudet

Toimija- Alue- ulottuvuus ulottuvuus

Kuva 3. Mahdollisuuksien tilan kolme ulottuvuutta

Mahdollisuuksien tilat voivat olla absoluuttisia, relationaalisia ja havaittuja (taulukko 3). Ab- soluuttinen mahdollisuuksien tila viittaa sellaiseen kokonaisuuteen, jolle ei ole suoranaista vaihtoehtoa. Erittäin rikas ja helposti saavutettavissa oleva kultavaranto on esimerkki abso- luuttisesta mahdollisuudesta. Relationaalista mahdollisuuksien tilaa arvioidaan suhteessa muihin samankaltaisiin tiloihin. Jos kultavaranto ei ole helpommin louhittavissa kuin muualla, sen arvo suhteessa muihin vastaaviin mahdollisuuksien tiloihin on heikko. Havaittu mahdollisuuksien tila taas muistuttaa, että sen paremmin absoluuttinen kuin relationaalinenkaan mahdollisuus ei käänny toiminnaksi, jos sitä ei ole havaittu ja hyödynnetty. Jos yksikään toimija ei tiedä kultavarannon olemassaolosta tai osaa hahmottaa sen merkitystä tai osaa orga- nisoida sen louhintaa, mahdollisuuksien tila ei käänny kehityspolkua uudistavaksi voimaksi. Tässä on käytetty esimerkkinä helposti hahmottuvaa kultavarantoa, mutta periaatteessa mahdollisuuksien tila voi rakentua hyvin monenlaisten rakenteellisten resurssien varaan:

• Fyysiset resurssit: Infrastruktuuri, sijainti, liikenneyhteydet jne. • Yritysrakenne: Osaaminen, resurssit, verkostot jne. • Inhimilliset resurssit: Alueen yrityksissä tai muissa organisaatioissa oleva osaaminen ja koulu- tettu työvoima, tutkimus- ja oppilaitoksissa oleva osaaminen jne. • Asuin- ja elinympäristöön liittyvät resurssit: Luonnon ympäristö ja rakennettu ympäristö, yksityiset ja julkiset palvelut jne. • Institutionaaliset resurssit: Alueen vakiintuneet toimintatavat, kehittämisorganisaatiot ja niiden välinen vuorovaikutus jne. • Suhderesurssit: hyvät verkostot ja yhteistyösuhteet alueella ja sieltä ulos jne.

Käytännössä mahdollisuuksien tilojen hyödyntäminen edellyttää erilaisten resurssien kom- binointia. Resurssit voivat siis olla suhteessa toisiinsa korvaavia ja täydentäviä.

Taulukko 3. Mahdollisuuksien tilan eri ulottuvuuksien avaamat kysymykset esimerkinomai- sesti

Aikaulottuvuus Alueulottuvuus Toimijaulottuvuus Absoluutti- Mitä kysyntää maailmalla Mikä rakenteellinen omi- Mitkä toimijat kykenevät nen on ja mitä tarjottavaa alu- naisuus luo alueelle mah- näkemään ja hyödyntä- eella on suhteessa kysyn- dollisuuksia? mään mahdollisuudet? tään? Relatiivinen Mitkä tapahtumat avaa- Mikä rakenteellinen omi- Mitkä alueen toimijat ky- vat mahdollisuuden juuri naisuus luo kilpailuetua kenevät tarttumaan mah- kyseiselle alueelle ja sen mahdollisuuden hyödyn- dollisuuteen muita pa- toimijoille? tämisessä suhteessa mui- remmin ja miksi? hin alueisiin? Havaittu Mitä ajassa olevia mah- Onko alueen mahdolli- Mitkä toimijat ovat mahdollisuuksia toimijat ha- suuksia tuottavat raken- dollisuuksien havaitsemi- vaitsevat ja miksi? teelliset ominaisuudet sen kannalta olennaisia? tunnistettu?

4 TUTKIMUSMETODOLOGIA JA VAIHEET

ReGrow -projektin tavoitteena ei ollut vain vastata tutkimuskysymykseen vaan myös kehittää toimijuuden ja rakenteet yhdistävä teoria ja sitä tukeva metodologia. Tutkimus toteutettiin samalla teorialla ja metodologialla Norjassa, Ruotsissa ja Suomessa. Esittelemme seuraavassa tutkimuksen metodologiset valinnat ja toteutuksen vaihe vaiheelta.

Vaihe 1 - Teorian ja analyysimallin rakentaminen Loimme vaiheessa yksi perustan teoreettiselle kehitystyölle ja rakensimme analyysimallin rakenteiden merkityksen tunnistamista varten. Vaiheen yksi tuloksena syntyi tutkimuksen teo- reettismetodologinen perusta. Teorian perusajatukset esiteltiin edellisissä luvuissa. Metodo- logisen kehitystyön ensimmäisessä vaiheessa Grillitsch ym. (2021) rakensivat laajaan kirjalli- suusanalyysiin perustuen analyyttisen mallin, jonka avulla on mahdollista yhdistää rakenteiden merkitystä mittaavat kvantitatiiviset muuttujat samaan kokonaisuuteen muutostoimijuuden kolminaisuuden kanssa (kuva 4). Mallin kvantitatiivisen osan avulla on mahdollista esti- moida rakenteiden vaikutus työpaikkakehityksessä. ReGrow -malli perustuu estimoidun kehityksen ja todellisen työpaikkakehityksen välisen suhteen analyysin.

Riippumattomat muuttujat Riippuva muuttuja Riippumattomat muuttujat (kvantitatiivinen) (laadullinen)

Alueen Innovatiivinen toimialarakenne yrittäjyys

Innovatiivisuuden rakenne Mahdolli- Työllisyyden Institutionaalinen suuksien kasvu yrittäjyys Työmarkkinoiden tilat rakenne

Työmarkkinoiden Paikkaperustainen luonne alueella johtajuus (kontrolli)

Kuva 4. ReGrow -malli

Vaihe 2 - Tapausten valinta ja case-tutkimukset Vaiheessa kaksi teimme kvantitatiivisen analyysin, jonka tavoitteena oli tunnistaa Norjan, Ruotsin ja Suomen työpaikkakehitykseltään kokonaiskuvasta poikkeavat alueet. Empiirisestä analyysistä ja mallin kehittämisestä vastasi Lundin yliopiston tutkimusryhmä muiden tutki- musryhmien keräämän maakohtaisen datan varassa vuonna 2018. Halusimme alueiden vas- taavan mahdollisimman hyvin toiminnallisia alueita (työmarkkina-alueet), joten Suomessa saatavilla olevista tilastoyksiköistä tutkimuskohteiksi valittiin seutukunnat. Analysoimme kaikkien Norjan, Ruotsin ja Suomen seutukuntien kehitykseen vaikuttavat rakenteelliset tekijät tavoitteena tunnistaa, miten hyvin rakenteet selittävät seutukuntien ke- hitystä ja mikä osa kehityksestä jää selittämättä (residuaalit). Hankimme Suomessa seutukuntien rakenteellisen kehityksen analyysiä varten pitkän aikavälin tilastoaineiston tilastokeskuk- sen avoimesta StatFin -tietokannasta ja räätälöidyn tilastoaineiston toimialaluokituksen neli- numerotasolla (Työllisyystilastot 2018). Seutukuntien työpaikkakehityksestä laadimme maa- kohtaiset regressiomallit. Suomessa malli kattoi aikavälin 1998-2015. Mallissa työpaikkamäärän vaihtelu (pääosin yksityisen sektorin toimialat TOL 2002 1-74) oli riippuva muuttuja ja riippumattomat muuttujat rakentuivat teemoittain seuraavasti:

• Alueen toimialarakenne: Monipuolisuutta mitattiin Hirschman-Herfindahl indeksillä ja erikois- tuneisuutta Theilin indeksillä3. • Innovatiivisuuden rakenne: Korkeakoulutettujen osuus, korkean teknologian valmistuksen osuus työpaikoista ja tietointensiivisten alojen osuus työpaikoista. • Työmarkkinoiden rakenne: Teollisen valmistuksen osuus työpaikoista, palvelualojen osuus työ- paikoista, toimipaikkojen keskikoko ja kotitalouksien keskitulo.

3 Theilin mitalla on analysoitu alueen toimialarakenteen erikoistumista suhteutettuna valtakunnalliseen kehitykseen. Käänteinen Hirschman-Herfindahlin indeksi mittaa alueen toimialarakenteen monipuolisuutta abo- luuttisesti. (Grillitsch ym. 2019) 29

Malliin valitut rakenteelliset tekijät selittivät melko hyvin seutukuntien työpaikkamäärien vaihtelun pitkällä aikavälillä. Aluekehitystutkimuksessa on ollut tapana kohdistaa huomio se- litysmallin kokonaistuloksiin ja jättää residuaalit huomiotta. Toimimme ReGrow -projektissa päinvastoin ja nostimme tutkimuskohteiksi ne seutukunnat, jotka ovat jossain kehityksensä vaiheessa menestyneet paremmin tai huonommin kuin niiden rakenteiden perusteella olisi voinut päätellä niiden menestyvän. Valitsimme tutkimuksen seuraavaan vaiheeseen nk. poik- keamaseutukunnat (outlier), joissa rakenteelliset tekijät eivät jollain ajanjaksoilla kyenneet selit- tämään työpaikkakehityksen muutosta eli jäljelle jäi poikkeuksellisen suuri negatiivinen tai positiivinen residuaali. Jos residuaali oli poikkeava neljänä vuonna peräkkäin, seutukunta tul- kittiin poikkeamaksi mallista. Oletimme, että muutostoimijuuden tarkempi analyysi voisi se- littää, miksi jotkut seutukunnat poikkesivat rakenteellisten estimaattien tarjoamasta selitys- mallista. Suomesta tunnistettiin 11 mallista poikkeavaa ajanjaksoa 11 seutukunnnasta (taulukko 4). Poikkeamat sijaitsivat tasaisesti eri puolilla maata. Niistä osa oli positiivisia ja osa negatiivisia. Kahdella seutukunnalla esiintyi sekä positiivinen että negatiivinen poikkeamakausi (tai useampi). Seutukuntien poikkeavat kaudet ryhmiteltiin neljään eri tyyppiin: (a) Ylisuoriutumisen kausi viittaa sellaiseen ajanjaksoon, jossa työpaikkojen määrä on kasvanut estimaattia paremmin. (b) Sinnittelyn kausi viittaa ajanjaksoon, joissa työpaikkojen määrä on laskenut mallin estimaattia vähemmän. (c) Vajoamisen kausi tarkoittaa ajanjaksoa, jossa työpaikat ovat vähenty- neet estimoitua enemmän ja (d) alisuoriutumisen kausi työpaikkamäärän kasvua estimoitua vä- hemmän.

Taulukko 4. Poikkeavien havaintojen neljä erilaista ryhmää

Työpaikat vähentyneet Työpaikat lisääntyneet

Estimaattia SINNITTELYN KAUSI YLISUORIUTUMISEN KAUSI parempi kehitys - Joutsan seutu 2001-2005 - Helsingin seutu 1998-2001 - Pietarsaaren seutu 2012-2015 - Salon seutu 1996-2001 ja 2004-2008 - Koillis-Savon seutu 2007-2011 - Pohjois-Satakunnan seutu 2004- 2007

Estimaattia VAJOAMISEN KAUSI ALISUORIUTUMISEN KAUSI heikompi kehitys - Varkauden seutu 2008-2011 - Helsingin seutu 2003-2006 - Keski-Karjalan seutu 2011- - Pohjois-Lapin seutu 1998-2001 2015 - Raahen seutu 2001-2005 - Salon seutu 2009-2015 - Itä-Lapin seutu 2002-2006

Tilastollisen analyysin tuloksia tulkittaessa on otettava huomioon mallin itseään korjaava luonne. Esimerkiksi mallin tunnistaman vajoamisen kauden jälkeen seutukunnan korkeakoulutettujen osuus työpaikoista tai korkean teknologian valmistuksen osuus on saattanut jäädä

pidemmäksi aikaa alhaisemmalle tasolle. Vastaavasti menestyksen kauden jälkeen monet mallissa käytetyt indikaattorit ovat saattaneet kertoa kasvun jatkumisesta mutta hitaammin. Tä- män kaltaisissa tapauksissa kyseiset seutukunnat eivät enää erotu regressiomallin poik- keamina.

Kuva 5. Mallista poikkeavan työllisyyskehityksen seutukunnat Suomessa 1998-2015

Teimme poikkeamaseutukuntien tunnistamisen jälkeen jokaisesta 11 estimaattimallin esille nostamasta seutukunnasta vuonna 2018 tiiviin taustaselvityksen tavoitteena tunnistaa tarkempaan analyysiin valittavat seutukunnat. Tunnistimme kunkin seutukunnan ne toimialat, jotka olivat eniten vastuussa työpaikkamäärien vaihteluista. Lisäksi selvitimme keskeiset toimijat (tärkeimmät työnantajat ja korkeakoulutuksen yksiköt) ja tunnistimme selvimmät muu- tostekijät. Näitä olivat esimerkiksi seutukunnalle tärkeiden toimialojen maailmanmarkkinati- lanteen muutokset sekä avaintoimijoiden sijoittuminen seutukuntaan tai poistuminen seutukunnasta. Käytimme tarkempaan analyysiin valittavien tapausten tunnistamisessa kahta pääkriteeriä: (a) Poikkeamaperiodin ajoittuminen (etusijalla 2000-luvulle osuvat poikkeamat, koska näin toimijuudesta on saatavissa luotettavampaa tietoa), ja (b) alueellinen kattavuus ja seutukuntien erityyppiset kehityskulut. Jätimme suurimmat kasvukeskukset pois tutkimuksen fokuksen vuoksi (regional growth against all the odds). Näiden kriteerien perusteella tarkempaan case-analyysiin valikoituivat Pietarsaaren, Salon, Varkauden ja Itä-Lapin seutukunnat. Suomen tutkimuskohteet ovat seutukaupungeiksi määriteltyjen keskusten ympärille rakentu- via seutukuntia, joilla on vahva teollinen perinne. Kolmessa tapauksessa neljästä (Salo, Itä-

Lappi ja Varkaus) poikkeaman syynä oli alueella sijaitsevan yhden tai useamman suuren työn- antajan toimenpiteet. Erityisesti negatiivinen shokki (teollisen yksikön toiminnan lopettami- nen tai laajat irtisanomiset) näkyy välittömästi seutukunnan työpaikkakehityksessä. Näissä tapauksissa päätimme analysoida seutukunnan kehitysvaiheita pidemmällä aikaperiodilla. Ne- gatiivisten poikkeamien tapauksissa kiinnostaviksi teemoiksi nousivat yhtäältä toiminta ja val- mistautuneisuus ennen kriisiä ja toisaalta toipumiseen liittyvä toimijuus. Case-tutkimusten tarkoituksena oli testata, miten muutostoimijuuden kolminaisuus -mallin avulla on mahdollista selittää ja tulkita poikkeavien seutukuntien kehityspoluissa tapahtu- neita muutoksia. Kunkin valitun casen osalta tehtiin prosessianalyysi, jonka avulla tunnistettiin kehitysvaiheet, kehityksen kriittiset jaksot sekä kriittisissä jaksoissa kehityksen suuntaan vaikuttaneet avaintapahtumat ja -toimenpiteet (kuva 6).

Kehitysvaihe Kehitysvaihe Kehitysvaihe

Kriittinen Kriittinen jakso jakso

Avaintapahtumat Avaintapahtumat

Kuva 6. Kehitysvaiheet, kriittiset jakso ja avaintapahtumat

Teimme case-tutkimusten ensimmäisessä vaiheessa sekundäärilähteisiin perustuvan kunkin seutukunnan keskeisten toimijoiden kartoituksen sekä loimme aikajanat avaintapahtumista ja pitkän aikavälin kehityskaaresta. Keskitettyjä uutislähteitä olivat Yle Uutisten artikkeliarkisto (2019), MTV Uutisten arkisto (2019), Kauppalehden digitaalinen arkisto (2019) sekä Suomen Kuvalehden arkisto (2019). Lisäksi etsimme aluekohtaisia uutisia maakunta- ja paikallisleh- distä ja seutukunnan yritysten historiaa koskevia tietoja uutisten lisäksi myös yritysten kotisi- vuilta. Seutukuntien työllisyydestä ja elinkeinoelämän ajankohtaisista tilanteista oli saatavissa työ- ja elinkeinoministeriön koostamat Alueelliset talousnäkymät ja Alueelliset kehitysnäky- mät raportit vuosilta 2008-2015 (Nieminen 2008-2015). Määrittelimme alustavasti kirjallisten lähteiden avulla seutukuntien keskeiset toimijat ja tapahtumakulut ja valitsimme ensimmäiset haastateltavat. Lisää haastateltavia tunnistimme haastattelujen yhteydessä; kysyimme jokai- selta haastateltavalta lumipallometodin mukaisesti keskeisten toimijoiden nimiä. Toisessa vaiheessa haastattelimme yhteensä 70 toimijaa (ks. taulukko 5) ja kaikissa kolmessa maassa yhteensä 180. Toteutimme haastattelut pääosin vuonna 2019 ja vuoden 2020 alkupuoliskolla. Haastateltavat edustivat monipuolisesti erilaisia seutukunnan kehitykseen vaikuttaneita toimijoita, mutta muutamissa tapauksissa myös alueen ulkopuolisia tahoja. Täl- laisia olivat työ- ja elinkeinoministeriön lisäksi sellaiset yritykset, joilla on ollut vaikutus seutukunnan kehityskulkuun. Haastateltavina oli kaupunkien ja kuntien keskeisiä viranhaltijoita, kehittämisyhtiöiden edustajia, kauppakamarien ja yrittäjäjärjestöjen henkilöitä, maakuntien

liittojen ja ELY-keskusten edustajia, keskeisiä luottamushenkilöitä, alueen kansanedustajia, yritysten edustajia, koulutuksen ja tutkimuksen edustajia sekä paikallisen median edustajia. Kerroimme haastateltaville vakiintuneeseen tapaan, että yksittäisiä haastateltavia ei voi tunnistaa julkaisuista eikä muustakaan tutkimukseen liittyvästä materiaalista. Huomioimme haas- tateltavien valinnassa tutkimuksen pitkän aikaperspektiivin. Pyrimme saamaan mukaan ihmi- siä, jotka olivat olleet mukana keskeisissä tapahtumissa eri vuosikymmenillä. Useat haastatellut toimijat olivat olleet mukana oman seutukuntansa kehitykseen vaikuttaneissa toimenpi- teissä useissa erilaisissa rooleissa. Yrityksen edustaja saattoi olla toiminut sekä kehittämisyh- tiössä ja yrittäjäjärjestössä että luottamushenkilönä kunnassa. Koulutusmaailman edustajalla saattoi olla yritystausta tai viranhaltija oli voinut toimia uransa aikana useissa eri organisaatioissa. Haastatellut on taulukossa 5 ryhmitelty pääasiallisen roolin mukaisesti.

Taulukko 5. Suomessa toteutetut haastattelut seutukuntien ja haastateltujen taustan mukaan jaoteltuna

Pietarsaaren Salon Varkauden Yh- Haastattelu Itä-Lappi seutu seutu seutu teensä Yritykset 6 8 4 11 29

Hallinto4 2 6 4 1 13

Kehittämis- ja edunval- 4 3 4 4 15 vontaorganisaatiot5

Tutkimus- ja koulutus 2 2 0 1 6

Paikallismedia 3 1 1 1 6

Haastattelut seutukun- 17 20 13 18 68 nissa yhteensä

Työ- ja elinkeinoministe- 1 1 riö, kaikki seutukunnat Yrityshaastattelu, Var- kauden ja Itä-Lapin seu- 1 1 dut Kaikki aluetta koskevat 18 21 15 20 70 haastattelut yhteensä

4 Kuntien työntekijät ja johtavat luottamushenkilöt, kansanedustajat, ministeriön edustajat 5 Kehittämisyhtiöt, maakuntien liitot, kauppakamarit ja yrittäjäjärjestöt 33

Suurin osa haastatteluista tehtiin kasvotusten ja vajaa kolmannes puhelimitse tai etäyhteyk- sillä. Puolistrukturoitujen haastattelujen pääteemat olivat kaikissa maissa yhteiset, mutta niitä hienosäädettiin maakohtaisesti. Haastattelujen teemat olivat:

• Haastateltavan tausta, työura ja rooli seutukunnassa. • Seutukunnan kehityskaari ja avaintapahtumat - huomio kohdistettiin erityisesti niihin tapah- tumakulkuihin, jotka haastateltava tunsi henkilökohtaisesti. • Toimijuus – huomio kohdistettiin erityisesti niihin kriittisiin kehitysjaksoihin ja avaintapah- tumiin, jotka haastateltava tunsi henkilökohtaisesti tavoitteena saada vastaus seuraaviin kysy- myksiin: (a) ketkä olivat avaintoimijat, mitä he tekivät ja keiden kanssa, (b) mikä mahdollisti tai haittaisi toimintaa ja (c) mikä esti tai mahdollisti toimenpiteet ja mitä lopulta seurasi.

Käytimme haastatteluissa virikemateriaaleina alueen väestön, työpaikkojen ja toimialatyö- paikkojen määrän kehitystä sekä alustavaa kehitysvaiheita, kriittisiä jaksoja ja avaintapahtumia kuvaavaa aikajanaa. Annoimme haastateltavalle mahdollisuuden tulkita, haastaa tai täydentää alustavaa kuvausta tapahtumien kulusta. Tapahtumien läpikäynnin yhteydessä haastattelut kohdentuivat toimijuuteen jossakin tietyssä tapahtumakulussa. Lisäsimme Suomen haastat- teluihin osion alueen toimintakulttuurin ominaispiirteistä, koska se kehysti merkittävällä tavalla toimijuuden luonnetta. Kaikki haastattelut nauhoitettiin ja litteroitiin. Teimme aineistolle laadullisen teoriaohjaavan sisällönanalyysin (esim. Tuomi ja Sarajärvi 2018). Keskeiset yläkäsitteet perustuivat teoriaan (muutostoimijuuden kolme muotoa, polkukehityksen typologiat, kehityskulun päävaiheet ja kriittiset jaksot sekä mahdollisuuksien tila). Kategorisoimme aineistoa myös aineistolähtöisesti. Tiivistimme haastattelujen päätulokset tutkimusprojektin yhteisen ”interview protocol” -pohjan mukaiseen muotoon. Kirjoitimme syksyllä 2019 ja alkuvuodesta 2020 projektin sisäiseen käyttöön seutukuntakohtaiset tutki- musraportit, jotka noudattivat kaikissa kolmessa maassa samaa rakennetta: alueen yleispiir- teiden esittely, alueen kehityskaari, muutostoimijuuden piirteet sekä johtopäätökset. Case-tutkimuksen yhteydessä on aina pohdittava, mitä tutkittujen tapausten valossa on mahdollista päätellä. Tässä tutkimuksessa tapausten valinta on ollut erityisen perusteellinen, joten lähtökohdat tulkinnoille ovat hyvät. Tapausten voidaan katsoa edustavan hyvin joko poikkeuksellisen hyviä tai heikkoja ajanjaksoja Suomen seutukuntien lähihistoriassa. Tarkem- paan tarkasteluun valittujen seutukuntien kehityskulkuja ei ole mahdollista selittää vain rakenteellisilla tekijöillä. Näin ollen voidaan melko suurella varmuudella todeta, että poik- keamissa on kyse toimijuudesta.

Vaihe 4: Case-vertailu Tätä raporttia kirjoitettaessa projekti on siirtynyt vaiheeseen neljä, jossa päähuomio kohdis- tetaan case-vertailuun. Case-seutukuntien vertailussa käytetään Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) -menetelmää (Ragin 2009) ja lisäksi laaditaan useita teemoittaisia vertailuja (mahdollisuuksien tilat, toimijaperustainen resilienssi, suurten yritysten rooli ja merkitys ke- hityksessä ja johtajuuden muodot). Case-vertailuja julkaistaan aikaisintaan vuonna 2021 ja pääosin 2022.

5 SUOMEN CASE-ANALYYSIEN TULOKSET TIIVISTETYSTI

5.1 Itä-Lapin seutukunta Itä-Lappi on viiden kunnan (Kemijärvi, Pelkosenniemi, Salla, Savukoski ja Posio) muodostama seutukunta, joka on luonteeltaan perifeerinen ja taloudeltaan pitkälti luonnonresurssien hyödyntämiseen keskittynyt alue. Seutukunnan väkiluku oli 15 800 vuonna 2019 ja se oli pu- donnut 31 % vuodesta 2000. Alue nousi tutkimuksessa esiin työpaikkakehityksen negatiivi- sena poikkeamana vuosina 2002-2006. Itä-Lapin teollistuminen alkoi 1950- ja 1960-luvuilla valtion teollistamis- ja aluekehittä- mispolitiikkojen seurauksena ja jatkui vahvana 1980-luvulle ja osin 1990-luvulle saakka. 1950- luvulla valtio valjasti Kemijoen vesivoimalle ja 1965 perustettiin Kemijärven sellutehdas sekä 1980-luvulla Salcompin elektroniikka- ja Orionin lääketehtaat. Elektroniikkateollisuus sai Itä- Lapissa vahvan kasvusysäyksen 1990-luvulla Nokian menestyksen myötä. Jo 1960-luvulla pe- rustetut Suomun ja Pyhäntunturin laskettelukeskukset sekä Sallan laskettelukeskus kehittyivät erityisesti 1980-luvulta eteenpäin, vaikka seutu ei olekaan ollut Lapin vahvinta matkailualu- etta. 1900-luvun puolivälissä alkanutta kasvun ajanjaksoa voidaan luonnehtia uuden kehityspolun tuomiseksi seutukuntaan sekä 2000-luvulle tultaessa kehityspolun ylläpitämiseksi. Kas- vun taustavoimina toimivat pitkälti alueen ulkopuoliset tahot; erityisesti valtio ja suuryrityk- set, jotka ovat hyödyntäneet alueen vahvuuksia eli jokia, metsiä ja pohjoisia luontoarvoja mutta myös työvoimaa ja valtion tukipolitiikkaa. Itä-Lapin kehityskaari on tyypillinen esimerkki perinteisestä aluekehittämispolitiikasta (ks. Vartiainen 1980). Julkisella vallalla oli korostunut rooli ja erityisesti valtiojohtoinen kehittä- minen oli keskeisessä asemassa. Paikalliset toimijat (erityisesti kunnat) pyrkivät saamaan alueelle kehittämisen resursseja ja toteuttivat osaltaan valtion aluekehittämispolitiikkaa. Seutu- kunnan paikkajohtajuudelle ei jäänyt tilaa kehittyä ja paikallinen aloitteellisuus jäi melko al- haiselle tasolle. Myöskään paikallisella innovatiivisella yrittäjyydellä ei ollut tilaa kehittyä ja kasvuyrityskulttuuria ei syntynyt. Paikalliselle institutionaaliselle yrittäjyydelle ei juurikaan ollut tilaa tai tarvetta tässä kehitysvaiheessa. 2000-luvun alkupuolella seutukunta ajautui vaikeuksiin. Muutamassa vuodessa suljettiin lääketehdas (2002), elektroniikkatehdas (2004) sekä sellutehdas (2008). Alue koki raskaalla tavalla vanhan kehityspolun katkeamisen. Valmistavan teollisuuden yksiköt reagoivat mark- kinatilanteisiin ja pitivät huolta kustannustehokkuudestaan, mikä johti tuotannon siirtämi- seen edullisempien kustannusten maihin sekä selluteollisuudessa kapasiteetin vähentämiseen pienentyneen paperin kysynnän ja kohonneiden raaka-ainekustannusten vuoksi. Tämä johti seutukunnan ja sen toimijat vakavaan kriisiin. Paikalliset toimijat organisoituivat vastusta- maan erityisesti Stora Enson tehtaan sulkemispäätöstä. Itä-Lapissa oli totuttu luottamaan suuriin toimijoihin ja valtioon. Paikalliset verkostot olivat ohuita ja taloudelliset ja inhimilliset pääomat suhteellisen vähäisiä; uusien avausten teke- minen oli vaikeaa. Lisäksi kansallinen aluekehittämisen logiikka oli muuttunut, mikä vaikeutti laajemman yhteyden rakentamista valtiotasoon. Valtio tuki Itä-Lappia äkillisen rakennemuutoksen alueena. Akuuttia kriisiä pyrittiin helpottamaan muun muassa myöntämällä tukia Ke- mijärvelle sijoittuneelle liimapalkkitehtaalle, joka ei kuitenkaan menestynyt. Kelan palveluyk- sikön perustaminen toi jonkin verran kaivattuja työpaikkoja.

2010-luku oli Itä-Lapissa kamppailua menetettyjen työpaikkojen korvaamiseksi sekä tais- telua väestön vähenemisen ja ikääntymisen haasteiden kanssa. Kehityspolun kuihtuminen on luonnehtinut seutukunnan kehitystä, mutta seutukunnan avaintoimijat ovat reagoineet muu- tokseen. Paikalliset toimijat ovat etsineet selluteollisuudelle jatkoa päivitetyssä muodossa. Ke- mijärvelle on tavoiteltu modernia, korkeamman jalostusarvon biotuotetehdasta. Sellutekno- logia on viime vuosina kehittynyt ja maailmanmarkkinoille on syntynyt uudenlaista kysyntää biopohjaisille tuotteille. Boreal Biorefin tehdashanke olisi toteutuessaan lähes miljardin euron investointi, johon on haettu kiinalaisia ja muita seutukunnan ulkopuolisia pääomia. Samalla suunnitteilla on nykyistä monipuolisempi puualan liiketoimintaekosysteemi. Kunnalliset ke- hittämistoimijat ovat tässä ottaneet selkeästi aiempaa vahvempaa paikkajohtajuutta. Puualan keskittymään on jo onnistuttu hankkimaan Keitele Groupin saha, mikä on avannut uusia suuntia seutukunnan metsäteollisuudelle. Lisäksi Kemijärvelle on saatu kylmälaitevalmistajan yksikkö korvaamaan menetettyjä valmistavan teollisuuden työpaikkoja. Matkailuala on myös kasvanut, erityisesti Pyhätunturin alue on kehittynyt ja kansainvälistynyt viimeisen 20 vuoden aikana yhteistyössä Luoston kanssa. Itä-Lapissa rakenteellisilla tekijöillä on ollut aikojen saatossa merkittävä rooli. Syrjäisyys, suppeat koulutus- ja työllistymisvaihtoehdot ja pääomien puute ovat luoneet haastavat olosuhteet. Toisaalta luonnonvarat ja pohjoisen luontoarvot ovat antaneet lähtökohdat taloudel- liselle kehitykselle. Näitä resursseja ovat usein hyödyntäneet seutukunnan ulkopuoliset toimijat. Myös negatiivisen poikkeamajakson aiheuttaneet tehtaiden sulkemiset olivat päätöksiä, jotka tehtiin yritysten pääkonttoreissa tuotannollistaloudellisiin perustein. Itä-Lapin toimijoilla ei luonnollisesti ollut niihin sananvaltaa. Paikallisella toimijuudella on kuitenkin ollut merkitystä erityisesti toipumisprosessissa. Toimijoiden vähäinen määrä tekee alueesta institutionaalisesti ohuen ja siten myös haavoit- tuvan. Itä-Lapissa julkiselta sektorilta (kunnat, valtio) on aina odotettu johtajuutta ja aloitteita. Alueen toimijuudessa on edelleen jälkiä aiempina vuosikymmeninä opituista toimintata- voista. Alueen avaintoimijat tavoittelevat suuria kertaluontoisia kehittämisinvestointeja ja pa- nostavat edunvalvontaan alueen ulkopuolisten vallan- ja resurssienhaltijoiden suuntaan. Ta- voitteena on saada aikaiseksi erilaisia megahankkeita (kaivos, biojalostamo, rautatieyhteydet), joiden olisi tarkoitus tuottaa kerralla laajoja vaikutuksia paikallistalouteen. 2010-luvulla paikallinen toimijuus (erityisesti innovatiivisen yrittäjyyden) on aktivoitunut kriisin seurauksena. Samalla läsnä on edelleen tuttu haaste; monia päätöksenteon kannalta keskeisiä lankoja pitä- vät käsissään seutukunnan ulkopuoliset tahot.

5.2 Pietarsaaren seutukunta Pietarsaaren seutukunta on viiden kunnan muodostama (Pietarsaari, Pedersöre, Kruunupyy, Uusikarlepyy ja Luoto) valtakieleltään ruotsinkielinen rannikkoseutukunta. Sen väkiluku oli 49 663 vuonna 2019 ja se oli kasvanut 3 % vuodesta 2000. Alue on yksi tutkimuksen positii- visista poikkeamaseutukunnista vuosina 2012-2015; sen todellinen kehitys ylitti rakenteellisten tekijöiden tuottaman estimaatin kehityksestä. Pietarsaaren seudun talouden kehityskaarta luonnehtii jatkuvuus. Kehityksessä ei erotu selkeitä vaiheita tai jaksoja, vaan kehitys on ollut jatkuvaa ilman suuria kertamuutoksia. Teol-

lisen rakenteen ydin syntyi jo 1900-luvun alkupuolella, jolloin selluteollisuus sai alkunsa seutukunnassa. Alueellisista vahvuuksista nousi esille elintarvike-, vene- ja metalliteollisuutta sekä muuta pienteollisuutta. Monet perheomisteiset teollisuusyritykset ovat kasvaneet keski- kokoisten yritysten kategoriaan 1970-luvulta lähtien vahvistuvan viennin myötä. Yritykset ovat kavunneet ylöspäin globaalissa arvoketjussa ja löytäneet omat niche-alansa, joilla monet ovat maailman huippuja. Samalla työllisyyden painopiste on pikkuhiljaa siirtynyt kohti pk- sektoria. Vanhaa teollisuutta on ajan myötä poistunut, mutta uutta on tullut tilalle. Alueen yritysrakenne onkin monipuolistunut niin toimialojen kuin yrityskoon osalta. 2000-luvulla Pietarsaaren seutukunnan yrityskenttä on kansainvälistynyt usean keskeisen yrityksen siirryt- tyä ulkomaiseen omistukseen. Ne ovat jatkaneet toimintaansa Pietarsaaren seudulla. Elintar- viketeollisuus on noussut seutukunnan ykköstoimialaksi erityisesti Snellmanin kasvun myötä. Metsäteollisuus on aiemman yhden toimijan sijasta eriytynyt useisiin yrityksiin. Lisäksi met- säteollisuuden ympärille on syntynyt muiden alojen, kuten metalli-, kone ja mittausteknolo- gian yrityksiä. Vuoden 2009 talouskriisi aiheutti vientivetoiselle seudulle vaikeuksia, mutta toipuminen oli nopeampaa ja parempaa kuin Suomessa keskimäärin. Vaikeinakin aikoina seutukunnassa investoitiin ja toteutettiin useita infrastruktuuriprojekteja. Rakenteelliset tekijät eivät kaikilta osin suosi Pietarsaaren seutua. Inhimillisen pääoman taso koulutusasteella mitattuna on alhainen. Seutukunta ei ole erityisen erikoistunut. Korkean teknologian teollisuuden osuus on suhteellisen alhainen. Seutukunta on kuitenkin onnistunut kompensoimaan näitä puutteita ja osin tekemään niistä jopa vahvuuksia. Korkeatasoinen am- matillinen koulutus on seudulla arvostettua. Seudun riippumattomuus Nokiasta ja sen alihan- kintaketjuista toivat vakautta aikana, jolloin monet Suomen seudut kärsivät matkapuhelinteollisuuden uudelleenorganisoitumisen aiheuttamista muutoksista. Erikoistuneisuuden alhai- suus on seudulla nähty monipuolisuutena, joka vähentää yritysten välistä haitallista kilpailua ja edesauttaa niiden keskinäistä yhteistyötä. Seudun kehityksen taustalla on toimijuutta kehystäviä kognitiiviskulttuurisia tekijöitä. Yrit- täjyys on Pietarsaaren seudulla luonnollinen ja yleinen valinta toimeentulon hankkimiseksi. Yritykset ovat usein syvästi juurtuneita ja sitoutuneita paikalliseen toimintaympäristöön. Pai- kalliset verkostot ovat vahvoja ja henkilökohtaisiin suhteisiin perustuvia. Esimerkiksi kan- sainvälisen kaupan taitoja on omaksuttu yhteisön sisällä ja yritykset tekevät paljon yhteistyötä niiden kehittämiseksi. Vahvasta paikallisesta yhteistyöstä huolimatta uudistumisen aineksia etsitään kansainvälisten yhteyksien avulla. Ruotsinkielisyys toimii sosiaalisena liimana ja avaa ovia Pohjoismaihin. Samalla se heikentää verkostoja muualle Suomeen. Seutukunnassa ar- vostetaan oma-aloitteisuutta ja valtio koetaan yhtenä kumppanina muiden joukossa, mutta kehityksen halutaan pohjimmiltaan olevan omissa käsissä. Kehittäminen on luonteeltaan jatkuvaa ja inkrementaalista. Erityisesti perheomisteisissa yrityksissä ajattelu on ylisukupolvista eikä niinkään nopeaa voiton maksimointia. Lisäksi kehittämisote on proaktiivinen; toiminta- tapoja ja -malleja uudistetaan ennen kuin on pakko. Tästä esimerkkinä on ympäristöstandar- dien omaksuminen ennen niiden tulemista lainsäädäntöön. Paikallinen toimijuus on vahvaa. Paikkajohtajuus on luonteeltaan jaettua ja se rakentuu erityisesti liike-elämän verkostojen varassa. Monet kehittämisaloitteet syntyvät niissä. Strate- ginen ymmärrys keskeisistä kehittämisen tavoitteista on jaettua ja sosiaalisessa vuorovaiku- tuksessa syntynyttä. Seutukunnassa on myös vahvaa innovatiivista yrittäjyyttä. Se ei pääosin

perustu radikaaleihin teknologisiin innovaatioihin vaan inkrementaaliseen kehittämiseen. Ins- titutionaalinen yrittäjyys ei ole erityisen näkyvää kehittämisen inkrementaalisesta luonteesta johtuen. Toimijoiden roolit ovat seutukunnassa usein päällekkäisiä (ks. myös Sotarauta ym. 2020). Toimijat voivat erilaisissa tilanteissa omaksua vakiintuneesta poikkeavia rooleja. Seutukunnan erityisen positiivista kehitysjaksoa suhteessa muuhun maahan ei voida selit- tää yksittäisellä tapahtumalla. Kyse on kumuloituvista pitkäkestoisista kehitysprosesseista. Yksittäisiä toimialoja tarkasteltaessa voidaan sanoa, että työpaikkojen kasvun taustalla vaikut- tivat erityisesti Snellmanin kasvustrategia ja investoinnit sekä useat alueelliset rakennuspro- jektit. Paikkajohtajuudella ja alueellisella edunvalvonnalla on ollut näissä tilanteissa oma roolinsa. Aktiivinen julkinen kehittäminen ei kuitenkaan ole ollut niinkään kasvun syy vaan sen seuraus ja samalla sitä voimistava tekijä. Taloudellinen taantuma teki näkyväksi seutukunnan toimijuuden vahvuuden ja ominaispiirteet.

5.3 Salon seutukunta Salon seutukunta on itäistä Varsinais-Suomea. Se rajoittuu yhtäältä Kanta-Hämeeseen ja toisaalta Uuteenmaahan. Liikenteellisesti Salon sijainti on suotuisa, sillä Turkuun on vain noin 50 kilometriä ja Helsinkiin noin 115 kilometriä. Suhteellisen uusi moottoritie takaa sujuvat tieliikenneyhteydet molempiin kaupunkeihin. Salon seutu koostuu vain kahdesta kaupungista eli Salosta ja Somerosta. Vuonna 2019 asukkaita oli Salossa 51 833 ja Somerolla 8 711. Tutkimuksen tarkastelujaksolla Salon seudun väkiluvun kehitys on ollut kaksijakoista. Vuodesta 1991 vuoteen 2010 väkiluku kasvoi nopeasti ottaen huomion erityisesti sen, että Salo ei ole maakunnan keskuskaupunki vaan seutu- kaupunki. Vastaavasti vuoden 2010 jälkeen väestökehitys on ollut negatiivista. Vuonna 2010 seutukunnan asukasluku oli 64 564 asukasta mutta vuonna 2019 vain 60 544. Väestökehitys heijastaa suhteellisen suoraan viimeisen 30 vuoden Nokia-vetoista kehityskaarta. Pohjimmiltaan Salon seutukunta on vahvaa alku- ja erityisesti maataloustuotannon aluetta, mutta se tunnetaan erityisesti monivaiheisesta elektroniikka- ja matkapuhelinhistoriastaan. Maataloustuotannon merkitys on vuosien myötä pienentynyt erityisesti maatalouden rakennemuutoksen takia. Alkutuotannon lisäksi Salon seudulla on vahvaa tuotannollista pk-yrittä- jyyttä. Alueen teollisuustuotannon osuus on edelleen kansallista keskiarvoa korkeampi, vaikka palvelusektorin merkitys on vahvistunut trendinomaisesti jo pitkään. Salon seudun tuotannollisille pk-yrityksille on leimallista selkeä oma fokus ja omat tuotteet. Salon seudun taloudellista maisemaa on leimannut erityisesti korkean teknologian valmistus, mikä näkyy tilastoissa täysin poikkeuksellisella tavalla erityisesti vuosien 1994 ja 2011 välillä Nokian ja sen ympärille kehittyneen klusterin kasvettua nopeasti. Parhaimmillaan (vuonna 2000) Salossa oli matkapuhelinten ja muiden viestintävälineiden valmistuksessa lä- hes 6 500 työntekijää. Työntekijärakenne on koostunut sekä toimihenkilöistä (esim. T&K) että tuotannollisista tehtävistä. Huomionarvoista on, että korkean teknologian valmistuksen suuresta roolista huolimatta alueen koulutustaso on kansallista keskiarvoa matalampi. Salossa on Turun ammattikorkeakoulun toimipiste, mutta koulutustoiminta on supistunut huippu- vuosista. Seudun yrityksillä on koulutuksen lisäksi monenlaista T&K- ja projektiyhteistyötä ammattikorkeakoulun kanssa.

Salon matkapuhelinliiketoiminnan kaari on kokonaisuudessaan merkittävä luku suoma- laista teollisuushistoriaa. Vaikka tarina kulminoituukin Nokiaan, radioteknologian ja elektroniikkateollisuuden juuret Salossa ulottuvat aina 1920-luvulle. Saloran radioteknologioihin liit- tyvä osaaminen oli syy sille, että Nokia sijoittui Saloon 1970-luvun lopulla. Tuolloin syntyi matkaviestintään erikoistunut yhtiö Mobira (myöhemmin Nokia-Mobira ja Nokia Mobile Phones). Salon taloudellista kehitystä hallitsi pitkään Saloraan keskittynyt elektroniikkateollisuus ja muutamien vientiyritysten varaan rakentunut tekstiiliteollisuus. Tekstiiliteollisuus to- sin kuihtui pois viimeistään idänkaupan tyrehdyttyä 1980- ja 1990-lukujen taitteessa. Tekstii- liteollisuudesta vapautunut työvoima siirtyi merkittävältä osin voimakkaan kasvuvaiheen kyn- nyksellä olleeseen matkapuhelinvalmistukseen. Matkapuhelinteollisuuden kehityksen vaiheet näkyvät tutkimuksen mallinnuksessa. Tar- kastelujaksolle mahtuu peräti kolme ajanjaksoa, joissa Salon seudun työpaikkojen määrä on kehittynyt rakenteellisiin tekijöihinsä nähden joko poikkeuksellisen vahvasti tai heikosti. ReGrow-mallin tunnistama ensimmäinen poikkeuksellisen myönteisen kasvun ajanjakso osuu vuosille 1998-2001 ja toinen vuosille 2004-2008. Nämä vuodet eivät ole yksittäisinä jaksoina erityisen merkityksellisiä, sillä koko ajanjaksoa 1990-luvun alusta aina vuoteen 2008 voidaan nimittää matkapuhelinliiketoiminnan kultaisiksi vuosiksi. 1990-luvun lopun viimei- sinä vuosina Nokia nousi globaaliksi jätiksi matkaviestinnän alalla. Vuosituhannen vaihteessa Nokia organisoi toimintojaan uudelleen ja siirtyi globaaliin toimintamalliin. Kasvu jatkui aina vuoteen 2008 saakka, mutta Salon yksikön rooli osana kokonaisuutta muuttui. Nokia-klusterin vaikeudet alkoivat tulla näkyviin vuoden 2009 paikkeilla, jolloin alkoi matkapuhelinteollisuuden luisu, joka johti lopulta koko Nokia-lähtöisen matkapuhelinliiketoiminnan loppumi- seen Salossa. Matkapuhelinliiketoiminta muuttui nopeasti eikä Nokia kyennyt tekemään oi- keita valintoja haastavassa toimintaympäristössä (Lamberg ym. 2019). ReGrow-mallin tunnistama negatiivinen poikkeusjakso osui vuosiin 2011-2015, jolloin Nokia supisti toimintaansa, lakkautti valmistuksen Salossa, ja jolloin Microsoftille myyty matkapuhelinliiketoiminta lakkautettiin Salossa kokonaan. Muutostoimijuuden näkökulmasta Salon kehityskaaressa korostuu innovatiivinen yrittä- jyys sen laajassa merkityksessä. Nokian nousu maailman johtavaksi matkapuhelinvalmista- jaksi ja Salon yksikön keskeinen merkitys osana globaalia kokonaisuutta ei olisi ollut mahdol- linen ilman aitoa innovatiivisuutta ja kasvuhakuista yritystä. Sen sijaan muut muutostoimijuuden muodot eivät olleet Nokian ja Salon seudun kulta-aikoina erityisen vahvoja. Salon kau- pungilla oli oma roolinsa Nokian aiheuttaman kasvun mahdollistamisessa ja hyödyntämi- sessä, mutta kokonaisuudessaan sitä ei voi kutsua erityiseksi muutostoimijaksi. Seutukun- nassa ei myöskään ollut erityisiä institutionaalisia yrittäjiä, jotka olisivat pyrkineet haastamaan vallitsevia toiminta- ja ajattelumalleja. Nokian toimintaa ei luonnollisesti juurikaan kyseen- alaistettu eikä sen rinnalle pyritty erityisen aktiivisesti etsimään vaihtoehtoisia kehityspolkuja. Uusille kehityspoluille ei nähty olevan tarvetta. Muutostoimijuuden näkökulmasta monet asiat muuttuivat Nokian vaikeuksien tullessa esiin ja erityisesti matkapuhelinliiketoiminnan loppuessa Salossa. Seutukunnan tilanne oli erit- täin haastava niin taloudellisesti kuin väestökehityksenkin osalta. Tilannetta ei helpottanut Salon monikuntaliitos, joka muutti Salon kaupungin sisäistä dynamiikkaa. Reaktiona kriisiin

uudenlainen paikkajohtajuus ja institutionaalinen yrittäjyys alkoivat kehittyä. Alueen toimijoita koottiin yhteen ja ryhdyttiin luomaan kriisistä selviämiseksi uudenlaista yritys- ja yrittä- jyyskulttuuria. Kehitys kulminoitui IoT Campuksen perustamiseen Microsoftilta tyhjiksi jää- neisiin tiloihin vuonna 2017. IoT Campus saatiin aikaan useiden paikallisten tahojen pitkä- jänteisellä yhteistyöllä ja sen uskotaan mahdollistavana monialaisen ja tietointensiivisen yrit- täjyyden kehittymisen Salossa. Syntyneellä kokonaisuudella on ollut merkitystä myös uusien alan yritysten houkuttelussa Saloon. Salon seutu saattaa olla asettumassa uudenlaiseen tasa- painotilaan täysin poikkeuksellisen Nokia-aikakauden jälkeen.

5.4 Varkauden seutukunta Varkauden seutukunta sijaitsee Itä-Suomessa Pohjois-Savon maakunnan eteläosassa Etelä- Savon ja Pohjois-Savon maakuntien saumakohdassa. Se muodostaa yhdessä ympäröivien kuntien kanssa Keski-Savon alueen. Seutukunta muodostuu Varkauden kaupungista (20 466 asukasta vuonna 2019) sekä Leppävirran kunnasta (9 454 asukasta vuonna 2019). Varkauden seutukunta on kärsinyt negatiivisesta väestökehityksestä tutkimuksen tarkasteluajanjakson ajan. Vuosien 1991 ja 2019 välisenä aikana seutukunnan väestömäärä on laskenut 38 117 asukkaasta 29 920 asukkaaseen. Suurimpina syinä negatiiviseen väestönkehitykseen ovat olleet väestön luonnollinen väheneminen sekä nuorten poismuutto alueelta, mikä on johtunut pitkälti alueen vähäisistä opiskelumahdollisuuksista. Varkauden seutukunnalla on pitkät perinteet metsäteollisuudessa, konepajateollisuudessa sekä teollisessa automaatiossa. Merkittäviä työllistäjiä ovat Andritz Oy, Sumitomo SHI FW, Stora Enso Oyj, Aikawa Fiber Technologies ja Honeywell. Metsäteollisuuden osalta Varkau- den seutukunta on käynyt läpi voimakkaan rakennemuutoksen. Hieno- ja sanomalehtipaperin sekä hylsykartongin valmistaminen on vaihtunut pakkauskartonkien sekä puisten LVL-rakennuselementtien valmistukseen. Samaan aikaan konepajateollisuus ja erityisesti kansainvä- liset energiateknologia-alan yritykset ovat tasaisesti kehittäneet omaa liiketoimintaansa, mikä on näkynyt tuotannollisten työpaikkojen muuttumisena tietointensiiviksi työpaikoiksi. Varkauden seutukunnan teollinen historia alkoi 1800-luvun loppupuolella. Päätuotteita olivat laivat ja höyrykattilat. Alueen teollisessa historiassa tapahtui merkittävä muutos vuonna 1909, jolloin A. Ahlström Oy osti Paul Wahl & Co:n Varkaudessa sijainneen metalliteolli- suusyrityksen ja sahan. A. Ahlström Oy rakensi alueelle sellutehtaan, neljä paperikonetta ja aloitti sanomalehti- ja hienopaperin tuotannon. A. Ahlström Oy aloitti Varkaudessa myös soodakattiloiden, leijupetikattiloiden sekä seulalevyjen valmistuksen. Yhtiö perusti Varkau- teen Altim Control Ky:n (myöh. Ahlström Automation), joka keskittyi teolliseen automaati- oon. Vuosien 1986 ja 2001 välinen aika toi uusia muutoksia Varkauden seutukuntaan, kun A. Ahlström Oy alkoi myydä omia liiketoimintayksikköjään (mm. sellu- ja paperitehtaat, Pyro- power sekä Machinery) muille kansainvälisille yrityksille. Tuona ajanjaksona ”globalisaatio saapui Varkauteen”, kuten eräs haastateltava tiivisti tapahtumien kulun. Ulkomaiset yritykset ottivat A. Ahlström Oy:n paikan paikallisessa elinkeinoelämässä. Ulkomaisten yhtiöiden os- tettua A. Ahlström Oy:n liiketoiminnan osat paikallinen metsäteollisuuden, konepajateollisuuden toiminnot ja teollisen automaation toiminnot erkaantuivat omiksi kokonaisuuksi. Ne

ovat kehittyneet joillakin toimialoilla markkinajohtajiksi uusien yhtiöiden omistuksessa. Var- kauden yksiköitä koskeva päätöksenteko on siirtynyt seutukunnan ulkopuolelle, mikä on vä- hentänyt yhtiöiden sitoutumista Varkauden seutuun. Vuosien 2000 ja 2011 välinen aika oli Varkauden seudun elinkeinoelämälle haasteellista aikaa. ReGrow -mallin estimaatin mukainen negatiivinen poikkeamajakso ajoittui vuosille 2008-2011. Globaali finanssikriisi vaikutti vientimarkkinoilla toimivaan konepajateollisuu- teen, joka kuitenkin selvisi kriisistä suhteellisen hyvin. Samanaikaisesti paperin maailman- markkinat supistuivat, ja Stora Enso reagoi kysynnän laskuun sulkemalla paperikoneita Var- kaudessa. Yhtiö pohti Varkauden tehdasintegraatin sulkemista, mihin ei kuitenkaan päädytty johtuen tehdasintegraatin tuotannon suunnanmuutoksesta. Paperin valmistus vaihtui pakkauskartonkien ja puisten rakennuselementtien valmistukseen. Näiden lisäksi uusien kehityspolkujen aihioita on seutukunnassa etsitty ’contact centeristä’, kaviaarin valmistuksesta, kalan kasvatuksesta sekä akkujen valmistuksesta, joka on kuitenkin kaatunut aina vaikeuksiin. Met- säteollisuuden kriisin myötä paikallisen konepajateollisuuden ja erityisesti energiateknologia- alan yritysten suhteellinen osuus seutukunnassa on korostunut. Paikalliset toimijat eivät vas- tustaneet muutoksia vaan ovat etsineet uusia mahdollisuuksia ja siten uusien kehityspolkujen siemeniä. Muutoksiin sopeutuminen on ollut toiminnan keskiössä. Kriisien aikana ja niiden jälkeen paikkajohtajuus on vahvistunut. Esimerkiksi Varkauden kehitysyhtiö käynnistettiin uudestaan äkillisen rakennemuutoksen aikana, ja kehitysyhtiö ryh- tyi mobilisoimaan ja koordinoimaan kehitysresursseja. Kriisien myötä myös kansainvälisten yhtiöiden paikallisjohtajat ovat alkaneet tunnistaa oman roolinsa kehityksen suuntaajina, ja he osallistuvat aiempaa aktiivisemmin seutukunnan kehittämiseen muun muassa ottamalla kantaa koulutusmahdollisuuksien tärkeyteen alueen elinvoimaisuuden vahvistamisessa. Työpaikkojen määrä Varkauden seutukunnassa ei ole palautunut haasteellisia vuosia edel- täneelle tasolle. Työpaikkojen määrä on kuitenkin vakiintunut laskun jälkeen ja joillakin toimialoilla on ollut havaittavissa myös merkkejä kasvusta. Työpaikkojen vähenemisestä huolimatta seutukunta on päässyt suhteellisen hyvin jaloilleen; paikallisten toimijoiden kysy sopeutua muutoksiin ja avoimuus uusia mahdollisuuksia kohtaan ovat olleet keskeisessä asemassa.

5.5 Yhteenveto Tiivistämme tässä luvussa tapaustutkimusten päähuomiot mahdollisuuksien tilan käsitteen avulla. Tätä raporttia kirjoitettaessa ReGrow -projektin päähuomio on kohdistunut teorian ja metodologian kehittämiseen sekä kehitysvaiheiden tunnistamiseen ja toimija-analyysiin. Mah- dollisuuksien tilan käsitettä ei analyyseissä ole käytetty kovinkaan laajasti. Tässä esitetyt huomiot mahdollisuuksien tiloista ovat alustavia ja luovat perustan astetta tarkemmille analyyseille. Itä-Lapin seutukunnassa toimijuus on ollut hajanaista ja satunnaista. Kriisien jälkeen se on tiivistynyt. Kehittämistoiminnan ytimessä on muutama avainhenkilö toimintamuotona pääosin julkisen hallinnon organisoimat kehittämisprojektit. Kehittämistoiminta on varsin pitkälle reaktiivista. Se rakentuu suurten kehittämisprojektien mobiloimiseen ja rahoituksen etsintään. Tällaisia ovat seutukunnan ulkopuolisen päätöksen teon ja rahoituksen varassa olevat hankkeet kuten rautatieinvestoinnit, kaivokset ja uudet tehtaat. Itä-Lapin seutukunnassa

kehittämistyössä painotetaan kansallisen tason merkitystä ja ulkoisia resursseja. Paikalliset verkostot ovat suhteellisen hauraita ja yhteydet muualle ohuiden verkostojen varassa. Itä-Lapin mahdollisuuksien tilan absoluuttinen aluespesifi tekijä on puuvarannot, jota kannattaa hankkia logistisista syistä vain rajatulta alueelta. Itä-Lapissa on metsätaloudesta kiinnostuneita osaavia toimijoita, mutta perusongelmana on pääomien puute ja teollisen ankkuritoimijan puute. Kiinalaisen pääoman etsiessä sijoituskohteita ja sellun kysynnän kasvaessa Kiinassa aikaikkuna rahoituksen saamiseksi Kiinasta oli jonkin aikaa auki. Tätä raporttia kirjoitettaessa vaikuttaa sille, että aikaikkuna on sulkeutumassa. Haasteita tuottaa myös suurten yritysten ja samalla alueiden välinen kilpailu siitä, kenen on mahdollista toteuttaa uudet biotuotetehtaat ensimmäisenä. Kansallisella tasolla metsävarannon hyödyntämistä ei voi kasvattaa määräänsä enempää.

Taulukko 6. Yhteenveto Itä-Lapin seutukunnan mahdollisuuksien tilasta - näkökulmana met- säteollisuus Aikaulottuvuus Alueulottuvuus Toimijaulottuvuus Absoluutti- Uudet selluteknologiat Itä-Lapin puuvarannot Kiinalaiset pääomat ovat nen ja maailmalla kasvanut etsineet sijoituskohteita ja kysyntä biopohjaisista Kiinassa sellun kysyntä materiaaleista kovaa. Relatiivinen Stora Enso päätti lak- Puun kuljetus on kannat- Itä-Lapissa oli metsäta- kauttaa Kemijärven sel- tavaa vain tietyltä han- loudesta kiinnostuneita ja lutehtaan. Kriisi laukaisi kinta-alueelta. Itä-Lapin asiantuntevia ihmisiä. paikallisesti uusien puuvarannot pitäisi pys- Ongelmana oli alueellis- mahdollisuuksien etsin- tyä hyödyntämään riittä- ten pääomien puute ja nän. vän lähellä. suuren teollisen toimijan Nykyhetkessä on aluei- puute. den välistä kilpajuoksua siitä, kuka ehtii perustaa suunnitteilla olevat sellutehtaat ensin, koska kansallisella tasolla puun hakkuut voivat kasvaa vain tiettyyn rajaan saakka. Havaittu Aalto-yliopiston sellu- Itä-Lapissa tehdyt laskel- Itä-Lapin toimijat havait- teknologian professori mat osoittivat, että sellu- sivat, että he voivat itse osoitti Itä-Lapin toimi- tehdas alueella olisi kan- ryhtyä hankkimaan puut- joille ajassa olevat uudet nattava. tuvia pääomia biotuote- teknologiset mahdolli- tehtaalle perustamalla yri- suudet. tyksen ja hankkimalla kumppaneita.

Pietarsaaren seutukunnan mahdollisuuksien tilaa luonnehtii yleisellä tasolla sen jatkuva avoimuus. Seutukunnalle ominainen inkrementaaliseen kehittämiseen nojaava ajattelu tarkoittaa samalla jatkuvaa uusien mahdollisuuksien etsintää ja niiden hyödyntämistä. Seutukun- nan yritykset ovat osoittaneet, että laadukkaille niche-tuotteille on mahdollista löytää maailmalta kysyntää. Pietarsaaren seutukunnan mahdollisuuksien tilalle on tyypillistä sen jatkuvan avoimuuden lisäksi vahva pk-sektori, ajassa kumuloitunut vientikaupan osaaminen ja toimijoiden välinen tiivis yhteistyö. Kaikki nämä tekijät tukevat mahdollisuuksien havaitsemista ja hyödyntämistä.

Taulukko 7. Yhteenveto Pietarsaaren seutukunnan mahdollisuuksien tilasta - näkökulmana kansainvälinen kauppa Aikaulottuvuus Alueulottuvuus Toimijaulottuvuus Absoluutti- Laadukkaille niche - Vahva PK-sektori Alueella on runsaasti vien- nen tuotteille on aina kysyn- tiä harjoittavia, usein per- tää maailmalla heomisteisia, pk-yrityksiä. Relatiivinen Jatkuvat mahdollisuu- Seudulla on vahva teol- Alueen yrityksillä on ku- det lisuuspainotteinen pk- muloitunutta kv-kaupan sektori, joka on suun- osaamista ja kv-suhteita tautunut vientikaup- (erityisesti Ruotsi). On paan. Keskimääräistä si- myös Suomen vanhin vien- toutuneempaa ja osaa- tiosuuskunta. Alueella on vaa ammatillista työvoi- vahvoja verkostoja, joiden maa sekä hyvää kielitai- kautta saa tietoa ja kump- toa. panuuksia, jotka mahdollistavat vientiä. Havaittu Havaitsevat ja etsivät Alueella tunnistetaan Toimijat hakevat aktiivi- jatkuvasti trendejä, joi- omiksi vahvuuksiksi sesti vientimarkkinoita ja se den mukaan tuotteita korkea laatu ja teollisen on luonnollinen toiminta- inkrementaalisesti kehi- valmistuksen osaami- malli. tetään. nen (erityisaloilla kuten veneteollisuus, koneet ja laitteet)

Varkauden seutukunnassa muutostoimijuuden muodoista vahvimmin on ollut esillä innovatiivinen yrittäjyys, mikä on näkynyt alueen isojen kansainvälisessä omistuksessa olevien yriysten kautta. Kyseiset yritykset toimivat Varkauden seutukunnan elinkeinoelämän moot- toreina tuottamalla uusia tuotteita ja teknologisia ratkaisuja globaaleille markkinoille. Seutu- kunnan kokemien kriisien myötä paikkajohtajuus on vahvistunut ja esimerkiksi edellä mainittujen kansainvälisten yritysten paikallisjohtajat ovat alkeneet tunnistamaan omaa rooliaan oman toimintaympäristönsä kehittäjinä sekä seutukunnan puolestapuhujina. Varkauden seudun mahdollisuuksien tila on vahvasti sidoksissa paikalliseen konepajateolli- suuteen ja erityisesti energiateknologia-alan yrityksiin, mitkä ovat vahvistaneet rooliaan seutukunnassa paikallisen metsäteollisuuden kriisin myötä. Tällä hetkellä kahdella isolla voima- ja soodakattiloita tuottavalla yhtiöllä: Sumitomo SHI FW Oy:llä ja Andritz Oy:llä on isot yksiköt Varkaudessa. Edellä mainitut yhtiöt toimivat globaaleilla markkinoilla ja erityisesti viimeiset 6 – 7 vuotta ovat olleet kulta-aikaa energiatekniikan laitostoimituksille. Metsäteolli-

suuden puolella on rakennettu uusia biotuotetehtaita (esimerkiksi Äänekoski), mikä on vaikuttanut positiivisesti esimerkiksi Andritz Oy:n tuotantoon. A. Ahlström Oy:n myytyä omat liiketoimintayksikkönsä Varkaudesta kansainvälisille yrityksille, ovat uudet yritykset muodostaneet Varkauteen ekosysteemin. Tässä ekosysteemissä Stora Enson tehdasintegraatti on toiminut testialustana Sumitomon ja Andritzin uusille laitteille ja teknologialle. Tätä ekosystee- miä vahvistaa Savonia-AMK, mikä järjestää Varkaudessa energiatekniikan opetusta. Seutu- kunnan isot energiateknologia-alan yritykset osallistuvat aktiivisesti edellä mainitun koulutusohjelman kehittämiseen.

Taulukko 8. Yhteenveto Varkauden seutukunnan mahdollisuuksien tilasta - näkökulmana energiateknologia Aikaulottuvuus Alueulottuvuus Toimijaulottuvuus Absoluutti- Tarve energian tuotta- Kahdella isolla energiatek- Alueen globaaleilla mark- nen miseen polttamalla. nologia-alan yrityksellä: Su- kinoilla toimivat energia- Metsäteollisuudessa ra- mitomo SHI FW Oy:llä ja teknologiayritykset. kennetaan uusia biotuo- Andritz Oy:llä on isot yksi- tetehtaita. köt Varkaudessa. Alueella on myös paljon edellä mainittujen yritysten alihankki- joita. Relatiivi- Globaalit sekä kotimai- A. Ahlström Oy:n jälkeen Alueen energiateknolo- nen set energiatekniikan lai- alueelle tulleet kansainväli- gia-alan yrityksissä on tostilaukset. set yritykset ovat muodos- vahvaa osaamista globaa- Viimeiset 6-7 vuotta taneet Varkauteen ekosys- lien toimitusprojektien ovat olleet kulta-aikaa teemin. hallinnasta. energiatekniikan laitos- Savonia-AMK järjestää toimituksille. Varkaudessa energiatekniikan opetusta. Alueen energiateknologia-alan yritykset osallistuvat aktiivisesti koulutusohjelman kehittämi- seen. Havaittu Varkaudessa olevat Varkauden seudulla on Alueen energiateknolo- energiateknologia-alan vahvaa energiatekniikkaan gia-alan yritykset ovat yritykset ovat jatkuvasti ja insinööritieteisiin liitty- kansainvälisissä omistuk-

kehittäneet omaa voi- vää osaamista. sissa ja tästä johtuen ne

Salon seutukunnassa muutostoimijuutta on leimannut innovatiivinen yrittäjyys. Elektro- niikkateollisuuden juuret ulottuvat aina sadan vuoden taakse. Viimeisten vuosikymmenten tarinaa on hallinnut Nokian matkapuhelinliiketoiminta ja sen erityinen rooli suomalaisessa teollisuushistoriassa. Nousu ja myöhemmin tuho olivat erityisiä tarinoita. Nokian varjossa alueen muut muutostoimijuuden muodot jäivät verrattain hahmottomiksi. Toisaalta Nokian

ja myöhemmin Microsoftin vaikeudet nostivat esiin muita muutostoimijuuden muotoja. Kriisi sekä mahdollisti että pakotti esiin paikkajohtajuuden ja institutionaalisen yrittäjyyden. Kaupungin ja sen keskeisten, vahvasti juurtuneiden yritystoimijoiden oli lähdettävä luomaan yhdessä Salolle uutta, monitoimijaista tulevaisuutta. Salon seudun mahdollisuuksien tila kiteytyy kuitenkin edelleen informaatio- ja kommuni- kaatioteknologian ympärille. Salon ”uuden tulemisen” symboliksi on noussut IoT Campus, joka perustettiin Microsoftilta tyhjiksi jääneisiin tiloihin. Kuten kampuksen nimi kertoo, ke- hittämisen fokus on nk. esineiden internetissä (Internet of Things = IoT), jonka perusajatus on se, että tulevaisuudessa erilaiset koneet ja laitteet ”keskustelevat” keskenään langattomasti. Jos Nokian slogan oli ”Connecting People”, on IoT sille luoteva jatko: ”Connecting Devices”. Kyse on langattoman, digitaalisen viestinnän vallankumouksen uudesta vaiheesta, jossa on merkit- täviä kasvumahdollisuuksia. Salon seudulla on edelleen sellaista osaamista, jolla on mahdollista kytkeytyä tähän kehityskulkuun. IoT Campus tarjoaa osaltaan tälle hyvin fyysisen infrastruktuurin ja mahdollisuuden synergisen osaamiskeskittymän syntymiselle. Osaamiskeskit- tymä koostuu pienistä innovatiivisista start up -yrityksistä, suurempien kansainvälisten yritysten toimipaikoista sekä tutkimuksesta ja koulutuksesta. Oleellista tämän mahdollisuuksien tilan kehittymisen kannalta on, että kokonaisuutta kyetään viemään pitkäjänteisesti ja strate- gisesti eteenpäin. Taulukko 9. Yhteenveto Salon seutukunnan mahdollisuuksien tilasta - näkökulmana korkean teknologian alan uudistuminen (IoT) Aikaulottuvuus Alueulottuvuus Toimijaulottuvuus Absoluutti- Langattoman, digitaalisen Verrattain suotuisa si- Alueella toimii edelleen nen viestinnän vallankumous jainti, valmis infra (IoT useita langattoman vies- on meneillään ja siirty- Campus) tinnän ja digitaalisen tek- mässä uuteen vaiheeseen: nologian yrityksiä. ihmisten välisen viestin- nän lisäksi myös erilaiset koneet ja laitteet ”keskustelevat” keskenään langattomasti (IoT). Relatiivinen Salon seudulla on edel- Nokian myötä alueella on Salossa on sekä pieniä, leen langattoman viestin- myös asiantuntijoita, innovatiivisia start-up nän ja digitaalisten tekno- jotka osaavat ajatella kan- -yrityksiä että suurten logioiden osaamista. sainvälisesti ja riittävän kansainvälisten yritysten ”isosti” suhteessa käyn- toimipaikkoja. Molem- nissä olevaan murrok- mat ovat tärkeitä alueen seen. osaamisen ja verkostojen kehittymisen kannalta. Havaittu Alueella on ryhdytty pa- IoT Campuksen aikaan- Salon kaupunki ja alueen nostamaan IoT-alaan saaminen on ollut Salolle keskeiset yritystoimijat (”Internet of Things”). suuri yhteinen kehittä- näkivät mahdollisuuden Se on digitaalisen liiketoi- misponnistus, joka on luoda Nokian/Microsof- minnan kasvualoja, joka luonut myös uudenlaista tin entisistä tiloista uuden kytkeytyy langattomaan toimintakulttuuria. digitaalisen osaamisen viestintään. keskittymän, joka koostuu yrityksistä tutkijoista ja oppilaitoksista.

5.6 Johtopäätökset Tekemämme tutkimus on osaltaan vahvistanut toimijuuden ja rakenteiden välisen suhteen tutkimusta erityisesti toimijuuden näkökulmasta. Olemme tässä raportissa nostaneet esille toimijuuden pääpiirteet ja mahdollisuuksien tilojen luonteen case-seutukunnissa. Syvempi analyysi rakenteiden vaikutuksesta toimijuuteen ja päinvastoin on tätä kirjoitettaessa alkanut. Tutkimuksen ensimmäisessä vaiheessa laadittu kvantitatiivinen analyysi osoitti rakenteiden kiistattoman merkityksen kehityspolkujen suuntautumisessa. Rakenteet sekä rajaavat että mahdollistavat monin tavoin kehitystä. Ne muovaavat erityisesti mahdollisuuksien tilojen alue- ja toimijaulottuvuutta. Aikaikkunan auetessa keskeiset toimijat eivät välttämättä havaitse kaikkia mahdollisuuksia tai kykene tarttumaan niihin. Kaiken kaikkiaan mahdollisuuksien tilan käsite on analyyttisesti potentiaalinen. Se antaa mahdollisuuden tarkastella rakenteita ja toimijuutta osana samaa kokonaisuutta. ReGrow -projekti tunnisti mahdollisuuksien tilan kä- sitteen potentiaalin mutta ei vielä vienyt analyysiä kovinkaan pitkälle päähuomion ollessa muutostoimijuudessa. Tutkimuksemme osoittaa, että Suomen kaltaisessa suhteellisen homogeenisessä unitaari- sen hallintomallin maassa voi olla useita erilaisia tapoja lähestyä kehittämistoimintaa ja kehi- tystä. Toimijuus ei ole samanlaista kaikkialla Suomessa. Sen muodot vaihtelevat ajan kuluessa. Ajan kuluessa muovautuneet hallinnolliset ja taloudelliset rakenteet eivät vaikuta vain kehityspolkuihin vaan myös toimijuuteen. Olemme myös osoittaneet, että toimijuudella todellakin on merkitystä kehityspolkujen suuntaamisessa. Innovatiivinen yrittäjyys tai sen puute ovat keskeisessä asemassa kaikissa seutukunnissa kussakin omalla tavallaan. Lisäksi paikkajohtajuuden merkitys toimintojen suuntaajana, koordinoijana ja mobilisoijana on näkyvä. Oletuk- semme mukaan toimijuus on vahvasti sidoksissa rakenteisiin, mutta toimijoiden on mahdollista luoda, laajentaa tai uudistaa mahdollisuuksien tiloja ja siten joko hyödyntää rakenteita tai muokata niitä. Kehittämämme muutostoimijuuden kolminaisuuden ja mahdollisuuksien tilan teoria osoittautui hedelmälliseksi tavaksi lähestyä toimijuuden ja rakenteiden välistä suhdetta. Kä- sitteellinen viitekehyksemme avasi uudenlaisen näkymän polkukehitykseen ja -kehittämiseen. Samalla on kuitenkin selvää, että teoria ei ole valmis. Toimijuuden eri muotojen väliset suhteet ja päällekkäisyydet on tunnistettava nyt toteutunutta analyyttisemmin. Meidän on yhtäältä sukellettava syvemmälle toimijuuteen ja jatkettava esimerkiksi vallan ja vaikutusvallan käsit- teiden parempaa integroimista teoriaan ja toisaalta jatkettava rakenteiden ja toimijuuden vä- listen peruskysymysten tutkimusta hyödyntäen alan klassikkoja.

Miten kehittyä vastoin kaikkia oletuksia? Kysymykseen ei ole olemassa yhtä tyhjentävää vastausta. Vaikuttaa joka tapauksessa siltä, että tutkimuksen pääväittämät pitävät paikkansa:

Kuten aina ennenkin, kyse on samanaikaisesti sekä isoista että pienistä asioista, joissa täytyy onnistua samanaikaisesti. Hyvät tavoitteet täytyy kyetä viemään käytäntöön yksityiskohtiaan myöten. Taulukon 5 muutostoimijuuden tärkeimmät ulottuvuudet ja päähuomiot case-seutukunnista kertovat, millaiset isot ja pienet asiat seutukuntien toimijuutta luonnehtivat. ReGrow -projektin havaintojen perusteella on mahdollista nostaa esille kulminaatiopis- teet, joissa kehittyminen vastoin kaikkia oletuksia saattaa ratketa.

• Tasapainoinen muutostoimijuus o Hyvin toimiva ja tasapainoinen muutostoimijuuden kolminaisuus kompensoi ohuiden rakenteiden vaikutusta kehitykseen ja mahdollistaa uusien polkujen syntymisen tai vanhojen päivittymisen. Kaikissa seutukunnassa muutostoimijuus on aktivoitunut kriisin aikana tai sen jälkeen. Pietarsaaren seutukunta on esimerkki siitä, miten jatkuva kehittä- minen liudentaa kriisin vaikutusta. o Innovatiivinen yrittäjyys on alueiden kehityksen ytimessä. Kaikissa case-seutukunnissa yritysten merkitys on ollut keskeinen niin positiivisissa kuin negatiivisissakin kehityskuluissa. o Paikkajohtajuuden merkitys resurssien ja osaamisen mobilisoimisessa ja koordinoinnissa on keskeinen. Sen muodot ja toimintamallit voivat vaihdella suurestikin alueiden välillä. o Institutionaalinen yrittäjyys on pienillä seutukunnilla suhteellisen ohutta, koska pelikent- tää ja ajattelutapoja uudistavat voimat ovat pääosin seutukuntien ulkopuolisia. Jaettu paikkajohtajuus saattaa kuitenkin johtaa pienin askelin institutionaalisiin muutoksiin pit- källä aikavälillä (hiipivä muutos). o Parhaimmillaan alueella kyetään mobilisoimaan sekä seutukunnan että sen ulkopuoliset toimijat paikallisen pelikentän uudistamiseksi (paikkajohtajuudessa ja institutionaalisella yrittäjyydellä on merkitystä).

• Etsintäverkostot o Systemaattinen ideoiden ja vaikutteiden etsintä alueen ulkopuolelta tukee sekä toimijuuden vahvistumista että mahdollisuuksien tilojen rakentamista. Tästä hyvä esimerkki on Pietarsaaren seutukunnan tapa etsiä vaikutteita kansainvälisistä verkostoista ja jakaa niitä paikallisesti. Ennen kriisiä Varkauden ja Salon seutukunnissa etsintäverkostot rakentuivat suurten yritysten varaan palvelemaan ensisijaisesti niiden omia tarpeita. Kriisien jäl- keen etsintäverkostot ovat avautuneet mutta ovat suhteellisen ohuita. Itä-Lapin etsintä on kohdistunut pääosin rahoituksen ja toimijan etsimiseen uudelle biotuotetehtaalle.

• Lukkiutumien purku o Ajan kuluessa kehittyneet rakenteet vaikuttavat merkittävällä tavalla kehityspolkuihin. Sekä menneeseen lukkiutuvat tekijät että tulevaisuuden mahdollistajat olisi tunnistettava ja analysoitava sekä mahdollisuuksien mukaan purettava, jotta mahdollisuuksien tiloja olisi mahdollista rakentaa tietoisesti. o Avaintoimijoiden tulisi ymmärtää menneen kehityksen vaikutus sekä paikallisiin toimin- tamalleihin että nykyisin rakenteisiin tulevaisuutta mahdollistavana ja estävänä voimana. Toimijat ovat usein omien historioidensa vankeja. • Mahdollisuuksien tilojen proaktiivinen hyödyntäminen ja rakentaminen o Parhaimmillaan muutostoimijat tunnistavat, hyödyntävät ja rakentavat yhdessä seutukunnan ulkopuolisten toimijoiden kanssa hyvin kohdennettuja mahdollisuuksien tiloja. Mahdollisuuksien tilat saattavat olla valmiita hyödynnettäviksi, kunhan ne kyetään tunnistamaan ja tarvittavat voimavarat mobilisoimaan. Usein mahdollisuuksien tila täytyy

luoda tietoisesti ja vahvistaa tarvittavia kompetensseja askel askeleelta. Taulukon 3 kysymysten avulla on mahdollista tarttua nykyistä systemaattisemmin mahdollisuuksien tunnistamiseen ja hyödyntämiseen. Olennaista on kysyä mitä mahdollisuuksia on tarjolla ja kenelle sekä miten ne olisi mahdollista hyödyntää.

Etsintäverkostot

Mahdollisuuksien tilojen rakentaminen

Innovatiivinen Paikka- yrittäjyys johtajuus

Institutionaalinen yrittäjyys

MahdollisuuksienMahdollisuuksien tilojen tilojenrakentaminen hyödyntäminen

Lukkiutumien purku

Kuva 7. Muutoksen elementit case-analyysien perusteella

Taulukko 5. Yhteenveto toimijuudesta case-seutukunnissa

Pietarsaaren seutukunta Itä-Lapin seutukunta Paikkajohtajuus Jaettu ja keskinäinen, uudistuu Perustuu muutaman avainorganisaa- jatkuvasti yhteistyössä tion ja -yksilön näkemykseen Yritysten edustajat keskeisessä Hajanaista ja satunnaista asemassa Innovatiivinen Useita omilla markkinoillaan so- Teollisuuden kriisin jälkeen vähäistä yrittäjyys pivan lokeron löytäneitä yrityksiä (lähinnä matkailussa) Institutionaalinen Toteutuu vähittäin paikallisessa Paikallisesti heikkoa, odotukset koh- yrittäjyys verkostossa distuvat seutukunnan ulkopuolisiin toimijoihin Mobilisaatio Pitkälle itseorganisoituvaa Muutama yksilö ja julkiset toimijat or- Satunnaisesti puutteita koordi- ganisoivat kehitysprojekteja naatiossa Toimintamalli Proaktiivinen Reaktiivinen Polkukehityksen Jatkuva polun laajentaminen ja Polun “entisöinti” ja päivittäminen rationaliteetti päivittäminen houkuttelemalla resursseja seutukun- Riskinottovalmius nan ulkopuolelta Muutoskäsitys Hiipivä muutos Äkillinen Tehdään asioita jatkuvasti vähän Tavoitellaan suuria kehitysprojekteja paremmin (rautatiet, kaivokset, investoinnit me- gatehtaisiin)

Alueellinen Vahva paikallinen aktiivisuus ja Kansallinen ja kansainvälinen taso pai- suuntautuminen kansainvälinen suuntautuneisuus nottuvat Kansallinen taso vähemmän Paikallinen taso vähemmän tärkeä tärkeä Verkostot Intensiiviset paikalliset verkostot Heikot kansainväliset verkostot kansainvälisille markkinoille pää- Heikot paikalliset yritysverkostot, syä ja siellä toimimista varten melko hyvät julkiset verkostot Vahvat kansainväliset verkostot Kapeat verkostot seutuukunnasta ulos Varkauden seutukunta Salon seutukunta Paikkajohtajuus Rooli vahvistunut koettujen krii- Rooli vahvistunut rakennemuutoskrii- sien myötä sin jälkeen Innovatiivinen Isot kansainvälisessä omistuk- Leimannut historiaa, myös tulevai- yrittäjyys sessa olevat yritykset toimivat suutta rakennetaan innovatiivisen yrit- alueella innovatiivisina yrittäjinä täjyyden pohjalle. Institutionaalinen Ei ole ollut kovinkaan vahvaa. Rakennemuutos edellyttänyt myös ins- yrittäjyys Ajoittain paikalliset toimijat ovat titutionaalista muutosta; institutionaali- haastaneet vallalla olevia ajatus- nen muutos yhdistyy paikkajohtajuu- malleja. teen Mobilisaatio Aikaisemmin A. Ahlström Oy Aiemmin mobilisoijana toimi Salora ja toimi mobilisoijana. Nyt erityi- Nokia, nyt kaupunki merkittävä toi- sesti kaupunki ja kaupungin kehi- mija tys- sekä kiinteistöyhtiöt ovat vahvistaneet rooliaan tässä. Toimintamalli Proaktiivinen Reaktiivinen Polkukehityksen Energia- ja selluteknologian lait- Uudistuneen (korkean teknologian) rationaliteetti teiden jatkuva kehittäminen. Met- polun jatkaminen laadullisesti erilaisena säteollisuudessa tuotannon uudis- taminen ja monipuolistaminen. Muutoskäsitys Rakennemuutoskriisin myötä Rakennemuutoskriisi muutti käsityksen metsäteollisuuden merkitys alu- kehityksen lineaarisuudesta; ”paradig- eelle vähentyi ja energiateknolo- man muutos” gian merkitys kasvoi. Alueellinen Kansainvälisesti suuntautunut. Paikallisuuden merkitys rajoittunut; suuntautuminen kansainvälinen orientaatio Verkostot Kansainvälisillä yrityksillä globaa- Liiketoimintaperustaiset paikalliset ver- lit verkostot. Paikallisella tasolla kostot; myös kansainvälisiä verkostoja yhteistyö on liiketoimintaperustaista.

II Case reports

6 EASTERN LAPLAND SUB-REGION Heli Kurikka, Markku Sotarauta & Jari Kolehmainen

6.1 Regional characteristics

Location and connections The Eastern Lapland sub-region is located in the northern part of Finland alongside the Russian border (Figure 1). Kemijärvi is the biggest local centre (about 7,400 people in 2018). Other municipalities are Pelkosenniemi (950 people), Posio (3,200 people), Salla (3,500 people) and Savukoski (1,000 people) (StatFin, 2020). This sparsely populated sub-region can be considered peripheral, even in the Finnish context. In Eastern Lapland municipalities have established a joint organisation to coordinate their cooperation. There is also a minority of indigenous Sami people residing in the area. The largest city (and regional centre) in the Lapland region is Rovaniemi, which is 85 km away from the municipality of Kemijärvi. A railway stretches from Kemijärvi to Helsinki, with a total travel time between these destinations of 13 hours. Kemijärvi is the endpoint of railway traffic, and there is only one night train for passenger transportation each day. The railway continues on to Salla, but there is no service at the moment. There is also no airport in Eastern Lapland, which is a disadvantage, especially from the perspective of tourism. However, a border station to Russia was opened in 2002, which has generated some tourism and trade flows.

Figure 1. Map of Eastern Lapland (Map information, Liiteri, 2020).

Population dynamics Eastern Lapland is demographically challenging. The sub-region received thousands of relocated people right after the end of World War II, especially after half of the municipality of Salla was turned over to the Soviet Union via a peace treaty. The ‘Great migration’ in the 1960s and 1970s significantly decreased the population, and the trend has consistently been decresing thereafter, except for a rather steady period of migration in the 1980s. The sub- region has lost 41% of its population between 1990 (27,385) and 2018 (16,067). The current population is also older on average, with the number of people over 65 years of age having recently become the largest age group, whereas the youngest age group is increasingly on the decline (Figure 3). This is attributable to increased outmigration and reduced birth rates. This poses a challenge to all municipalities in Eastern Lapland, although it is most severe in the peripheral border areas of Salla and Savukoski.

30000 1,20

25000 1,00

20000 0,80

Population 15000 0,60 Population index 10000 0,40

5000 0,20

0 0,00 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Eastern Lapland population Eastern Lapland population index (1990=1) Finland, population index (1990=1)

Figure 2. Population in the Eastern Lapland sub-region 1991-2015, absolute and indexed (StatFin, 2018)

9000

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0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

- 14 15 - 24 25 - 44 45 - 64 65 -

Figure 3. Population by age groups in the Eastern Lapland sub-region 1991-2017 (StatFin, 2018)

Industrial mix and education Eastern Lapland strongly relies on public sector employment, which accounts for 39–48% of all jobs in the sub-region in the last few decades. Health and social work and public administration are the most important employers (Figure 4). In addition, agriculture plays a significant but decreasing role in employment, whereas forestry jobs have remained steady. The manufacture of electrical machinery peaked at the end of the 1990s, but dropped thereafter, in the early 2000s. Another radical development was the end of the pulp industry, which occurred in 2008. In 2015, most hiring industries, after the public sector, were retail trade, agriculture, forestry and other business services. In the 2000s, growth occurred only in health and social work, forestry, some recreational services, construction and real estate services. The share of available jobs in the tertiary sector in Eastern Lapland is similar to that in Fin- land on average, whereas the share of available jobs in the secondary sector is on average lower and has been decreasing since 2000 (StatFin, 2020). Primary sector employment remains relatively high despite a sharp decrease in the 1990s. The sub-region was once home to a number of large employers, most of which have since relocated or disappeared. Small enterprises exist, with the share of entrepreneurs among the total number of employed individuals standing at 15.3%, which is higher on average than in the rest of Finland (9.9%) as of 2017 (StatFin, 2020). However, most such enterprises are micro-sized, i.e. they do not usually employ others, while middle-sized companies are rare in the sub-region. The biggest employer in Eastern Lapland is actually a ceramics factory, Pen- tik, which is located in Posio (employed 250 people in 2019) (Fonecta, 2020). Other employers have at most 20–30 employees and operate in the fields of consumer trade, logistics, tourism and forestry. Ski resorts employ tens of people but as their main sites are located 53

elsewhere and employment is typically seasonal, their employment effects are more difficult to measure. In 2020, the Pyhä ski resort was estimated to employ 40 people directly and another 60 people indirectly. Eastern Lapland has a consistently higher unemployment rate (about 10 percentage units) than the rest of Finland, standing at above 20% almost all the time (StatFin, 2020). The unemployment rate in the sub-region actually slightly decreased during the negative outlier period (2002–2006). This may be attributable, however, to population loss and aging. The average education level (Figure 5) in Eastern Lapland is lower than the Finnish average. There are no higher education institutions in the sub-region, only secondary-level education, i.e. upper secondary schools and a vocational school, which is part of the Lapland Education Center (REDU). The nearest site where higher education is offered is Rovaniemi, where the University of Lapland and Lapland University of Applied Sciences are located. The University of Helsinki has a research station (Värriö) in Salla, which conducts measure- ments of subarctic ecosystems and the atmosphere, but only a few people reside at the station at any point in time.

Health and social work

Agriculture, hunting and related service activities 1800 Public administration and defence; compulsory social security

Education

1600 Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles; repair of personal and household goods Forestry, logging and related service activities

Manufacture of electrical machinery and apparatus n.e.c. 1400 Manufacture of pulp, paper and paper products

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0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Figure 4. The most employing industries in Eastern Lapland (Employment Statistics, 2018)

0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Eastern Lapl and Finland

Figure 5. Share of tertiary education in the Eastern Lapland sub-region (age group 25+) (StatFin, 2019)

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Primary sector, % Secondary sector, % Tertiar y sector, % Primary sector, Finland, % Secondary sector, Finland, % Tertiary sector, Finland, %

Figure 6. Sectoral composition in the Eastern Lapland sub-region (StatFin, 2019)

6.2 Variables of the structural model Eastern Lapland was a negative outlier in the 2002–2006 period, i.e. the sub-region was a consistent negative outlier in the observation period and simultaneously demonstrated negative growth. The outlier period was caused by the closure of several manufacturers within a few years. However, the negative period dates back to a time before the closure of the Stora Enso pulp mill in 2008.

2,5 0,005

2 0

1,5 -0,005 1 -0,01 0,5 -0,015 0 -0,02 -0,5 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 -0,025 -1 -1,5 -0,03 -2 -0,035 -2,5 -0,04

Residual Employment growth (4 year MA)

Figure 7. Employment growth and model prediction residuals (data for calculations from StatFin, 2020 and Statistics Finland, 2018).

12000 120

10000 100

8000 80

6000 60

4000 40

2000 20

0 0

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Eastern Lapland employed nace 1-74 Eastern Lapland all employed

Eastern Lapland employment index (all employed) Finland employment index (all employed)

Figure 8. Number of employed and employment indexes in the Eastern Lapland sub-region (1991=100) (data for calculations from StatFin, 2020 and Statistics Finland, 2018).

The variables used in the employment regression model are presented in Figure 9. These variables are indexed in such a way that year 1995=100 and the index indicate the relative changes of each variable. In Table 1, these variables are ranked in relation to other sub- regions (68) in continental Finland.

160 Employment (nace1-74)

140 Public employment

Household median income 120

Size of establishments 100 Higher education over 25 yrs.

80 Population

60 High tech employment

Employment in knowledge 40 intensive services

Employment in manufacturing 20 Diversity

0 Specialisation 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Figure 9. Eastern Lapland, relative change in the variables behind the employment model – indexed 1995=100 (data for calculations from StatFin, 2020 and Statistics Finland, 2018)

Table 1. Eastern Lapland, variables behind the employment model and their relative positions among other sub-regions

Variable (N=68) 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Public employment % public employment 43.0% 39.7% 40.5% 43.5% 44.6%

Rank (sub-regions) 5 4 3 1 1 Human capital % of tertiary degree +25 14.9% 16.1% 16.7% 18.3% 19.8%

Rank (sub-regions) 51 53 58 58 60 High-tech manufacturing % of employment 8.9% 10.7% 2.5% 2.3% 2.1%

Rank (sub-regions) 11 8 54 51 53 Knowledge-intensive busi- % employment 31.8% 32.1% 35.6% 39.1% 41.0% ness services (KIBS) Rank (sub-regions) 16 27 22 17 20 Manufacturing % employment 14.7% 18.0% 10.9% 7.0% 6.5% Rank (sub-regions) 52 47 61 63 63 Establishment average size Number of people 3,124 3,546 27,041 261 2,247 Rank (sub-regions) 53 46 60 64 65 Population density Pop / km2 126 112 100 091 083

Rank (sub-regions) 65 65 65 65 65 Household median income euro 15,151 15,759 17,524 19,706 20,461 per person Rank (sub-regions) 39 51 60 59 53 Diversity 1/HHindex) 13,85 14,26 14,19 12,51 10,65

Rank (sub-regions) 40 39 42 56 65 Specialisation Theil 0,31 0,35 0,26 0,28 0,29

Rank (sub-regions) 26 25 41 32 26

In the 2010s, the share of public employment in Eastern Lapland was the highest in all of Finland, and was very high even before that. The population density of Eastern Lapland is the third lowest in Finland. The share of people in the sub-region who have received higher education has increased, but not as quickly as elsewhere, because the relative position among other sub-regions declined slightly in the 2000s. A clear reduction in manufacturing and high- tech manufacturing jobs occurred from 2008 to 2009, when the Stora Enso pulp mill was closed. These jobs were recovered thereafter, although not so much in the high-tech manufacturing sector. Surprisingly, the closure of the medicine manufacturer Orion (2004) and the electronics manufacturer Salcomp (2002) did not immediately affect the share of high- tech manufacturing jobs. However, it is evident that the establishment size has diminished since the early 2000s due to the closure of the largest employers in the sub-region. After the closure of the Stora Enso mill especially, diversity in Eastern Lapland has declined and specialisation has increased. Industries in the sub-region were the third least diversified in com- parison to the rest of Finland in 2015. Average household income grew until 2010 but, in the national ranking, it has been declining since the 1990s.

6.3 Regional development trajectories

Phase 1 - The era of industrialisation (from the 1960s to the early 2000s) Post-war Eastern Lapland was dominated by the forest industry, which required substantial labour. The industrialisation of Eastern Lapland began in the 1950s when the state harnessed the Kemijoki river to produce hydropower and thereafter established a pulp factory in Kem- ijärvi, in 1965, which became the economic engine of the sub-region. Eastern Lapland has consistently been the target of regional policy subsidies with the aim of promoting its industrialisation, especially during the post-war period, when its industrial path was initially constructed. The development of the first ski resorts at Suomu and Pyhä began in the 1960s. Phosphate deposits were discovered in the municipality of Savukoski in the 1960s as well. In the 1970s, experiments were conducted to assess the feasibility of opening a mine in the Savukoski, and there was also a big public debate about whether to construct an artificial lake in Vuotos to generate hydropower – neither of these projects ultimately proceeded. The Vuotos project was also met with fierce resistance among many locals. The second wave of industrialisation occurred in the 1980s, when Orion’s pharmaceutical (1984) and Salcomp’s electronics (1985) factories were built. These projects were heavily supported by the state. Additionally, there were private investments in the skiing business (1987), and Finland’s first- ever World Cup in Freestyle was organised at Suomu Fell. Simultaneously, tourism was also significantly increasing elsewhere in Lapland due to state investments in infrastructure. In the 1990s, electronics manufacturing developed alongside the mobile phone industry, and Nokia bought Salcomp. At best, some 800 people were employed at Salcomp in Kemi- järvi. Meanwhile, the Pyhä Fell ski resort was developing and receiving investments, while the Suomu Fell resort was experiencing difficulties. Some traditional industries, like textile manufacturing, were already failing and ultimately closed. The change in the state’s regional development policy was clear, especially after the recession in the early 1990s and upon join- ing the EU in 1995. At the national level, the withdrawal of public policy instruments concerning peripheral areas had begun. Direct subsidies for industries that were important for 58

Eastern Lapland consequently diminished. In the 1990s, Finnish regional policy thinking shifted to an emphasis on endogenous development, including a strong focus on innovation, technology and competitiveness. This era was characterised by steady path importation and extension. The drivers behind this development were mainly the attraction of external investments and the utilisation of resources. Natural resources in the sub-region are particularly lucrative (hydropower, forests, minerals, northern scenery), but they are primarily controlled by the state and other extra-regional actors.

Phase 2 - The era of external shocks (2000s) The beginning of the new millennium was characterised by industrial path exhaustion. Several external decisions were made that demolished established industrial structures in a relatively short period of time. This era can be considered a critical juncture that changed the industrial base permanently. The drivers of negative development were major corporations making decisions based on the market situation and cost-efficiency, resulting in the closure of the pharmaceutical (2002), electronics (2004) and pulp (2008) factories. All in all, over 1,500 jobs disappeared in the decade from 2000 to 2010. In addition, state railways (VR) decided to terminate the last passenger train connection to Kemijärvi in 2006; but, after a struggle, the decision was made to reverse this plan, and traffic therefore continued. The Sokli phosphate deposits were sold to foreign interests in 2007, which sparked intense criticism. The mine has not yet opened, even under the new owner, Yara. Some positive developments also occurred, but these were insufficient to fully compensate for the losses caused by the closure of the main regional industries. These developments did, however, provide some hope for the future. The developments included the opening of the Salla Border Crossing Point between Finland and Russia (2002), large investments in the Pyhä ski resort (from 2004 to 2010), and the filming of a popular TV series, ‘Taivaan tulet’ in Kemijärvi in 2005–2013. After the closure of the pulp mill, the sub-region was classified as an ÄRM area by the state and received special funding and employment support as a result, e.g. the state established a call centre of the Social insurance institution of Finland (2009), and a new extra-regional company began manufacturing laminated beams in the old pulp mill facilities. However, this endeavour faced several difficulties from its onset and ultimately went bankrupt in 2013. Efforts in this era were mostly defensive and aimed at path continuation.

Phase 3 - Reproduction of the old path and new signals (2010s, post closures) The closures of factories left a huge vacuum in Eastern Lapland. The sub-region became even more dependent on public employment, and its population decrease became increasingly evident. As Eastern Lapland had for a long time been home to large industries (relatively speaking), it did not have an established tradition of entrepreneurship, and the number of SMEs in the sub-region was also low. Growth-oriented enterprises were particularly rare. The post-closure decade, 2010–2019, was typified by the search for a new direction, mostly by attempting to import jobs and update its older path. Eastern Lapland has struggled to create new jobs. Its main focus has been on finding a way to attract external investments to the sub-region, but this time looking towards the East.

Serious local efforts are being made to attract investments, mostly from China, in a new large-scale biorefinery, which would theoretically meet all of the contemporary standards set for a circular bioeconomy. A proposal for an entire industrial wood-based business ecosystem was also made and would include several companies in a cooperative arrangement. These efforts are still ongoing as of 2020. The aim here is to upgrade path extension by renewal and diversification, and its drivers are partially technological, as new pulp technologies have emerged and are continuously evolving, and partially institutional, as local actors have adopted a more active role and are looking for new partnerships. Drivers are also arising from global demand in emerging markets for pulp-based new materials. Some attempts to attract domestic manufacturing businesses have been fruitful. A sawmill (2014) and a refrigeration equipment manufacturer (2015) are newcomers in Kemijärvi. There have been signals of an emerging cultural industry as well – for example, the movie ‘Ailo’ was filmed in Eastern Lapland in 2018, and efforts have subsequently been made to market Eastern Lapland as a film location. Sokli mine received an environmental licence in 2018, but mining has not yet proceeded. All of these efforts represent path importation. The sawmill can be seen as an attempt at related diversification, one component of the new business ecosystem strategy, which is still in its infancy and as of yet lacks a new core company. Tourism has the potential for significant economic growth, as ski resorts have received investments, year-round tourism has become more popular, and the number of foreign tourists has increased. All three ski resorts – Pyhä, Suomu and Salla – are continuing to develop and grow. Salla, a small municipality, has demonstrated biggest relative tourism growth in Finland in 2017 and 2018. Developing a more professional natural products business has also received strategic emphasis. Here, we can identify characteristics of upgrading the path by climbing the global production network. In sum, the latest development phase could be called post-industrial path exhaustion. This situation was caused by gradual transformations in the global demand for the main products of local corporations, which led these corporations to change their strategies and close factories in Eastern Lapland. Recovery has been slow, and much human capital has been lost. However, signals of path upgrading and path importation still exist.

Main changes and change of industrial paths In Table 2, we summarise the types of industrial path development observed in Eastern Lapland. In Figure 10, we illustrate the main development phases.

Table 2. Types of new industrial path development

Types Mechanisms Observed in Eastern Lapland Upgrading I – Climbing GPN Major change of the regional industrial path related to the enhance- Tourism and natural products ment of position within global production networks; moving up in phase 3 the value chain based on upgrading skills and production capabilities II – Renewal Major change in an industrial path in a new direction based on new Pursuing biorefinery in phase technologies or organisational innovations, or new business models 3

III – Niche development Development of a leading position in a market niche Diversification I – Related Diversification into a new related industry for the region, building Sawmill in phase 3 on competencies and knowledge of existing industries Pursuing eco-industry park in phase 3

II – Unrelated Diversification into a new industry based on unrelated knowledge - combinations

Emergence I – Importation Setting up an established industry that is new to the region (e.g. All industries in phase 1 through non-local firms) and unrelated to existing industries in the Cold devices, filming and region opening a mine in phase 3 II – New creation Emergence and growth of entirely new industries based on radi- - cally new technologies and scientific discoveries or as an outcome of search processes for new business models, user-driven innovation and social innovation

(Adapted from Grillitsch, M., & Asheim, B. (2018). Place-based innovation policy for industrial diversification in regions. European Planning Studies, 26(8), 1638–1662).

1960s2001 2002-2008 2009-

Phase 1: The era of Phase 2: The era of Phase 3: Reproduction of the old industrialisation (from the 1960s external shocks path and new signals (2010s, to early 2000s) (2000s) post closures)

Critical juncture

Figure 10. Development trajectory of Eastern Lapland by main phases and critical juncture.

6.4 Change agency

Events underpinning change agency We have chosen to study four events in more detail in order to better understand the nature of agency in Eastern Lapland. The chosen cases describe distinctive characteristics of regional agency and how they have contributed to the regional growth path. However, we do not examine in detail the events that led to the negative outlier period. The negative outlier was caused by the closure of pharmaceutical and electronics factories in the first decade of the new millennium. These negative events did not reflect much agency, especially regional change agency. They were based on extra-regional companies’ cost-efficiency decisions and general global developments in which production was moved to cheaper-cost countries.

Therefore, the more interesting side of the story here is what happened afterwards. We elab- orate on the decline that continued when the Stora Enso paper mill was closed in 2008 as well as on efforts to continue the pulp path. We also explore the brighter side of development and tourism, focusing on the development of the Pyhä ski resort in the 2000s. Overall, 14 events were collected and analysed. We refer to different types of agency according to the ‘trinity of change agency’ model described in chapter 3.2.

Closure of Stora Enso pulp mill and ‘the mass movement’ The Stora Enso factory closure and local resistance to it present an interesting view on regional patterns of agency and ways of acting. The pulp mill was an important part of the industrial scene and identity of Kemijärvi. It had been in operation since 1965, and in 2007 it employed 220 people. Including indirect operations like transportation and harvesting, the employment effects were about 1,000 people. The wood price in 2007 was very high because of Russian wood tariffs, and in addition, the paper consumption had begun to decline. This led to radical measures by Stora Enso to reduce capacities around the world. Consequently, 16,000 jobs disappeared, half of which were in Finland. Behind the scenes, reasons related to agency likely made Kemijärvi a target for closure. Contradictory calculations and lobbying efforts pertaining to the sufficiency of northern wood from environmental activists were made. In addition, a large Swedish owner of Stora Enso supported the closure of the company’s Finnish units. In 2007, Stora Enso announced that it would close its pulp factory in Kemijärvi. This spawned a social ‘mass movement’ to protest the closure, which was led by the city board chairman (visible place leader) and a few other lead figures. These figures were very visible in the media, where they gained public sympathy. They also actively contacted Stora Enso and Finnish ministers because the state owned a large share of the company. Locals called on the state to intervene. In addition, the city of Kemijärvi offered to buy Stora Enso’s facilities and machinery so that manufacture pulp could continue if a new owner would be found. However, these defensive actions and protests of maintenance agency aiming at short-term path continuation did not change the outcome. Stora Enso did not reverse its decision, and the state did not get involved. The pulp mill was closed in 2008. The state thereby designated Eastern Lapland as an ÄRM region in order to release targeted funding. Over five million euros of state money, matched with the same amount from Stora Enso, were invested in an extra-regional company that promised to begin manufacturing of laminated beams in the old pulp mill facilities and provide many new jobs. Unfortunately, however, the new company faced difficulties from its onset and received no support from locals, subsequently going bankrupt in 2013. The state also supported employment in the sub-region by establishing a call centre of the Social insurance institution of Finland (2009) in Kemijärvi. These actions do not represent actual change agency, but maintenance agency aimed at path continuation.

Pursuing a new bioproduct factory with Chinese investments In 2016, a new company, Boreal Bioref, was established with the aim of developing a new biorefinery that would focus on new kinds of pulp-based bioproducts in Kemijärvi. Its

founders were locals, including the abovementioned place leader and a retired mayor/gov- ernor/parliament member. The company did not have much capital, which is considered a structural obstacle for regional development. Boreal Bioref is currently collecting 900 million euros in investments, mainly from China but also from elsewhere. The company hopes to create about 200 jobs and over 1,000 indirect jobs. A Chinese main partner (state-owned company Camce) is involved, but the final contract has not yet been signed. Meetings between the heads of state of Finland and China have led to the declaration of the project’s importance. Currently, there are several competing large pulp mill projects around Finland, but wood resources are limited, and they cannot all be built. Therefore, it is also a matter of speed, of who gets their licences and funding first. Boreal Bioref’s environmental licences were approved in 2019. The story of Boreal Bioref has not yet encompassed the regional development path, but it nonetheless provides an interesting example of the change in regional agency and opportunity space. The origins of the new company can be traced to a lead figure in the mass movement who previously held a job in the Forest Center as a forestry advisor. In 2013, this figure conducted a small project intended to explore SMEs opportunities pertaining to Lapland’s forests, but his calculations revealed that something more significant could be done. He wanted to help launch a new beginning for the sub-region’s pulp industry. Personal contacts with pulp researchers at Aalto University (Helsinki) played an important role in utilising a new kind of pulp technology as well as a novel production method for generating higher- value bio-products. These contacts were established during the mass movement. The time was optimal and global demand for new biomaterials was increasing. This figure and his Aalto contacts participated in the Ministry of Economy’s competition to create new bioproduct possibilities in 2015, for which they earned second place. This paved the way for negoti- ations about and enhanced the credibility of the project. Also, the city of Kemijärvi supported the idea and provided modest funding and eventually some risk capital to prepare the project and found Boreal Bioref. The lead figure and the company CEO have received extensive support from locals, likely as a result of the large network they created during the mass movement, and have also received support at the minister level and from the prime minister for the biorefinery project. The state considered the project to be important, and has as such made a 200 million euro commitment to improving roads and transportation infrastructure if the factory will be established. Boreal Bioref also has an R&D group that consists of researchers and development organisations. The company has gained visibility and has been contacted by interested parties from around the world, such as universities, related companies and research institutes, that have offered their partnership in terms of innovations and technologies to be tested in the next-generation pulp factory.

‘Let’s think about this really, a billion-euro investment. If we can take this to the goal – when we can get this to the goal, totally penniless people have just launched this. Development company gave the first small investment on this company. – We are not talking about any basic pulp factory here. It is just the compulsory bad thing here that we need to have, so that we can access the real high-value products’.

We can argue that there are few highly active key individuals behind this project. These individuals play all three roles of change agency: as place-based leaders, they mobilise different resources to achieve common goals; as innovative entrepreneurs, they represent a new kind of bottom-up thinking and local empowerment in job emergence; as innovative entrepreneurs, they seek to create new businesses based on innovative technologies. They are not alone, however, as university contacts have acted as institutional entrepreneurs, providing technological knowledge. The city has supported the process with projects and funding as place-based leaders as well. Overall, the project has received extensive support at the local, sub-regional, regional and state levels, and it is actively being promoted. The biorefinery project represents change agency, but the type of change is not so much radical as it is a manifestation of typical upgrading the path by climbing the global production chain and stretching the opportunity space.

Facilitating a new ‘Eco-industry park’ Alongside establishing a new biorefinery in Kemijärvi, the city and other Eastern Lapland municipalities have cooperatively begun to promote the development of an ‘Eco-industry park’ in Kemijärvi. This wood-based business ecosystem would include several collaborating companies that would follow principles of the circular economy. It would also create a new engine for the development of Eastern Lapland. The project has been conducted at smaller scales, e.g. a conceptual study in 2012-2013. Ideas have been developed in close cooperation with the same Aalto university contacts behind Boreal Bioref. The planned biorefinery is seen as the heart of the industry park, but its establishment has been slow going. Therefore, the city and its development company have already worked to attract other companies to relocate to the industry park. The biggest step thus far has been the Finnish family company Keitele Group, which established a sawmill and a glue-laminated beam factory in Kemijärvi in 2014, which employs about 70 people. Currently, there is an ERDF-funded ‘Forest in’ project aimed at developing the concept further. There are many kinds of agency involved in the development of the Eco-industry park. A development company in Kemijärvi has assumed the role of coordinating actions. This new development company was actually established especially for this purpose. It has thus far created ready-made business concepts for the industry park and is looking for companies to adopt them. The lessons learned from past experiences have shown that one factory is not enough – indeed, multiple factories are not enough. An industrial symbiosis is needed to provide added value and commitment to the region. To support the development of the Eco-industry park, the city has established/strengthened contacts with Aalto University, Na- tional Centre of Circular Economy, with a national thematic network organised around industrial symbiosis, with consultants and with Chinese partners. Attempts have also been made to activate local SMEs to prepare for new opportunities that construction and subcontracting could offer. However, local SMEs have been very cautious and may therefore be poorly prepared if and when park-related processes begin to move forward quickly. System- atic work has been done to attract new companies. The most important reason why the Keitele Group built a sawmill in Kemijärvi was its good wood resources and railroad. But agency was also required: the city, with the support of the Regional Council, negotiated with the state about electrifying and constructing a new railroad track and a new wood terminal

at the Patokangas industry park, and with Stora Enso about selling parts needed for their industrial area. Additionally, trusting relationships with the entrepreneur have played a key role in relevant decision making. The public sector (development company, city of Kemijärvi, Eastern Lapland municipalities) is assuming a strong place leadership role in the development of the Eco-industry park. The sector is creating structures of innovation and entrepreneurship as well. However, eventually, the goal is to hand the park over to enterprises. Institutional entrepreneurship has been sought from universities and networks, as such entrepreneurship is endogenously weak in the sub- region. It is difficult to find innovative entrepreneurship to join the effort, except for Boreal Bio- ref, that, with its key persons, would constitute a formidable initiative-making force. There- fore, the strategy is to attract companies from elsewhere to join the Eco-industry park. The aim of the project is to broaden the wood-based opportunity space and create a more embedded industrial ecosystem to the sub-region.

Pyhä ski resort development in 2000s Pyhä was bought by a Finnish family-owned company, Aho Group, in 1987, and it has been developed actively ever since. However, limitations such as, for example, the lack of an airport, have been disadvantageous, making the sub-region difficult to reach, especially for foreign tourists. Most of the visitors to Pyhä are domestic. Pyhä ski resort and other tourism businesses around Pyhä Fell are important employers in Eastern Lapland. Pyhä is located in the municipality of Pelkosenniemi, and its edges are located in Kemijärvi. Pyhätunturi Oy (a company owned by the Aho Group) employs about 40 people, but tourism businesses around Pyhä employ about 100 people. This case provides a brighter perspective on the development trajectory of Eastern Lapland. In the early 2000s, Pyhä was not included among the top tourism development targets in Lapland by the Regional Council. The development and coordination of tourism mostly fell on the shoulders of Pyhätunturi Oy. Something needed to be done, so the city of Kemijärvi launched a project to encourage cooperation in tourism-related businesses in Pyhä and the neighbouring Luosto ski resort in 2001–2003. As a result, Pyhä-Luosto Travel Ltd. was established in 2003. This company is collectively owned by local tourism enterprises and three municipalities. One goal of the company is to give a common voice to the tourism industry, so that entrepreneurs no longer need to do all the marketing, bookings and promotions on their own. The development of tourism took another step forward when a ‘Master plan’ was developed in the Pyhä-Luosto area first in 2004 and then as an updated version in 2007. The initiative came from Pyhätunturi Oy and the development company of Kemijärvi. It was funded by the Regional Council of Lapland and involved three municipalities, their land use planning companies and Canadian consultants. The master plan has supported the growth of and given a common direction to subsequent developments. Pyhätunturi Oy made substantial investments in the 2004–2010 period and has continued to invest until the present. The development of the Pyhä infrastructure has been conducted by public–private partnerships on several occasions. The development company of Kemi- järvi has invested in improvements (ski lifts, camper car areas, facilities). An FIS-certified slope was constructed in 2010 and was funded by the municipality of Pelkosenniemi. Every

time Pyhätunturi Oy has made a deal to pay public investments on ski resort back over time, they have done so. The municipalities have funded more general infrastructure, such as water infrastructure. It is interesting to note that Kemijärvi has assumed a role in another municipality’s area. The importance of employment effects has been demonstrated, whereas the municipality of Pelkosenniemi, which is very small, has had fewer possibilities to invest. Pelkosenniemi is also facing a conflict between investing in tourism in Pyhä and maintaining basic services in its municipal centre. The Aho Group has also been very committed and has invested their own capital and used loans to develop the Pyhä area with their own risk. The development of Pyhä has been the responsibility of the Aho Group’s Pyhätunturi Oy for a long time. This is now slowly changing, as many new accommodation companies have emerged and critical mass is growing, thereby increasing interest among investors. Many of the new companies are also being established by locals, not by extra-regional companies, as before. Pyhä is now on the verge of internationalisation, and international tourism is increasing. Cooperation between companies has improved over the last couple of years because international travel agencies require bigger volumes and ready-made service packages which no one can provide on their own. The Pyhä-Luosto Travel Ltd. is an important tool for cooperation. However, Pyhä has a strategic emphasis on nature, responsibility and sustaina- bility; they are not pursuing ‘mass tourism’. Global rising trends also support this kind of strategy. Metsähallitus (a state-owned enterprise that governs 1/3 of the land in Finland and all national parks) opened a visitor centre, Naava, in Pyhätunturi in 2012. The centre includes a nature exhibition and information services for Pyhä-Luosto national park visitors. It has become Finland’s second most popular nature centre and supports year-round tourism in the area. In the development of tourism in the Pyhä area, the Aho Group has played the role of an innovative entrepreneur and has created new services, like the FIS-certified slope. Recently, other SMEs and networked tourism services have also emerged. The Aho Group has relied on the financial support of local municipalities to serve as place leaders. In addition, Pyhä-Luosto Travel Ltd. has created an organisation that can assume leadership in tourism industry. The master plan of the Pyhä-Luosto area has created a common agenda for collaboratively developing the Pyhä area. The opportunity space is widening, as it is attracting more international and year-round visitors.

6.5 Trinity of change agency Next, we summarise the lessons learned from the described events in order to understand the nature of innovative entrepreneurship, institutional entrepreneurship and place-based leadership (see chapter 3.2) in Eastern Lapland.

Innovative entrepreneurship These kinds of activities are rare in Eastern Lapland. Previous industries in the sub-region (electronics, pulp, medicines) were originally imported. They were not knowledge-intensive but were rather focused primarily on manufacturing. When they left the Eastern Lapland in the 2000s, the vacuum they created went unfilled, as growth-oriented entrepreneurship is

rare. Attempts to replace these jobs followed the same logic as before – attracting manufacturing companies to the sub-region, which succeeded to some extent. However, this cannot be called innovative entrepreneurship. In contrast, the efforts made to establish a new biorefinery can be seen as innovative entrepreneurship, insofar as the goal is to create new business by bringing together resources and knowledge. The regional strength in this case are wood resources, but both knowledge and financial resources must be found elsewhere. Nev- ertheless, a positive change in agency has occurred, as the initiative behind this project now stems from local innovative entrepreneurs. Along with growing tourism, small companies providing tourism services have begun to emerge around larger ski resorts. These ski resorts are owned and professionally developed by investors from outside the sub-region. This kind of new networked agency and entrepreneurship is very welcome in Eastern Lapland.

Institutional entrepreneurship In Eastern Lapland, the lack of higher education organisations is one reason for weak institutional entrepreneurship. In cases where the need for institutional entrepreneurship has been identified, it has been sought from universities and networks outside the sub-region. The few key individuals behind the new biorefinery project and the Eco-industry park are challenging the existing ways of thinking. Even in these situations, the change agency concerns the upgrading of the path or the climbing the value chain, not new path creation.

Place-based leadership This kind of agency role is played by cooperative organisations comprising Eastern Lapland municipalities, other municipalities, and the city of Kemijärvi, which has the strongest role among all the municipalities, reaching even beyond its own borders with its development company. The public sector in Eastern Lapland has a stronger role than in Finland in general. It is traditionally expected to take the lead in initiatives and to move things forward, like attracting extra-regional companies and investments. The sector has been active in this sense, but the lack of innovative and institutional entrepreneurship is posing serious challenges for place-based leadership. Because of the weakness of active agency in the sub-region, the same key individuals may play several roles, some of which may overlap. A few key people behind the new biorefinery project (innovative entrepreneurship) have previously served as a city representative, board chairman or mayor, and have engaged in extensive promotion of regional interests. Simultaneously, they have also been the source of new ideas about what to do when the industrial path has faded (institutional entrepreneurship).

6.6 Opportunity spaces The sustaining logic in Eastern Lapland has traditionally been either small-scale natural live- lihoods (like reindeer herding or natural product development) or employment in large industrial corporations established in the sub-region. Entrepreneurship in which others would be employed is not often seen as a potential choice. The collectively perceived regional opportunity spaces often have a very long-time perspective, and they are often viewed as radical ‘mega projects’ that are expected to become game-changers and/or solve employment problems. Examples of these kinds of efforts include the Vuotos artificial lake in the 1970s, the

Sokli phosphate mine and, most recently, lobbying for a new Arctic railway to Russia and for the new biorefinery. Unfortunately, these efforts have rarely produced the expected outcomes – or any outcome. The problem is that most decisions related to these proposed projects are the responsibility of extra-regional players, the state or large companies. The related opportunities are usually connected to the sub-region’s natural resources, such as wood, minerals and natural scenery. Solutions have traditionally been sought at the national level, especially from the central government, which has supported the creation of jobs in the sub- region for decades. This logic still exists, but the regional opportunity space has slowly begun to embrace international possibilities of capital and tourism flows. The opening of the Salla border station to Russia in 2002 created such new opportunities, e.g. shopping tourism from Russia. However, the full potential of such opportunities has yet to be completely realised, as in the case of the border station, for instance, most tourists continue straight through the sub-region to Central Lapland, as services in Eastern Lapland are not well developed. Some signals about cultural industry (Eastern Lapland as a filming site) have also appeared. It will take time to construct new opportunity spaces to replace the old, obsolete paths. However, the seeds of change already exist.

6.7 Change obstacles and enablers The rather low educational level, lack of higher education, and outmigration of young people from Eastern Lapland has made it exceedingly difficult to attract educated people and to provide them with acceptable work opportunities, which has in turn posed immense challenges for the development of regional capabilities. On the other hand, companies that have relocated to the sub-region have experienced the positive aspects of obtaining a permanent and reliable labour force. At present, outmigration and deficient demographic development constitute the primary challenges to the efficacy of the regional labour supply. Resources in the sub-region are rooted in nature: wood, hydropower, mineral deposits and immaterial values associated with the Arctic landscape. However, these resources have only been weakly utilised by local actors due to the lack of capital, capabilities and networks. This has led to a situation in which the sub-region’s opportunities have been tightly controlled by exogenous forces, such as the state or large companies. Public resources (e.g. the state, the EU) have always been important in Eastern Lapland, but especially in the past, as it was easier then to gain subsidies in Eastern Lapland than in Southern Finland. Nevertheless, the regional actors have been disappointed with the state’s withdrawal from the Eastern Lapland over the last 30 years with respect to services and infrastructure investments. When it comes to networks, in Eastern Lapland, they are rather regionally sparse. Local business collaboration is particularly weak, and it does not have the benefit of a longstanding tradition. This is a problem in creating regional value chains and encouraging competitiveness. In the tourism industry, however, there are signs of emerging networks. Public sector cooperation in the sub-region is becoming stronger, e.g. cooperative organisation of Eastern Lapland municipalities, and the public sector is also reaching out to extra-regional development networks for novel ideas. The remote location and relative inaccessibility of Eastern Lapland are understandable challenges to networking, but emerging digital communication pathways should help compensate for the disadvantages of the sub-region’s location.

The institutional environment creates a framework in which the regional agency operates. The formal institutions, like municipalities, their cooperative organisation and the development company, have a significant role and are expected to take the lead in regional development. In addition, much more responsibility has been given to the state. The Central party is the biggest political party in the sub-region, but the Left Alliance is the second biggest party – a rare situation in Finland. This can be understood in light of the strong industrial history that activated the labour movement. The current political atmosphere is seen as rather volatile, which can obviously complicate decision making and pose its own set of challenges. The mechanisms of influence are not so much channelled through associations (e.g. business life associations) as they are organised into social movements when faced with threats and ineq- uities – like the ‘train rebellion’, which protested the termination of the last passenger connections to Kemijärvi, or the ‘mass movement’, which fought the closure of the pulp mill in Eastern Lapland. Patterns of behaviour can tell us much about informal institutions, such as socially shared rules and practices and cultural norms. Social movements in Eastern Lapland have always required strong leadership in order to convince people to join a common cause. The strategy of such social movements has typically been defensive in nature. They generally originate as reactions to some form of threat. The presence of large industrial employers and the high share of public employment have likely affected the entrepreneurial culture (like taking risks), which is quite weak in Eastern Lapland. Small enterprises do exist, but they are not usually growth-oriented, instead being geared towards lifestyles (like natural products or tourism) or towards subcontracting. There is also a tradition of anticipating ‘mega projects’, many of which do not ultimately occur. This has created an atmosphere of non-stop waiting and scepticism towards new initiatives:

‘Entrepreneurial spirit is missing, and people are used to having big employers. Now they are waiting for the Bioref to come. – when someone begins to plan entrepreneurship, the lack of capital is huge. This is not a region worth investing in’.

The regressive trends and demographic development of Eastern Lapland have understanda- bly generated sustained pessimism. Some older people even encourage the young to leave, as ‘there is nothing for them here’. Naturally, there are more positive ways to envision the future. The people of Eastern Lapland consider their persistence and hard-working attitude as their strengths.

6.8 Conclusions Eastern Lapland is a typical peripheral resource-based sub-region in Finland. Its industrialisation began in the 1950s and 1960s alongside state industrialisation and regional development policy, which remained strong until the 1980s. In this period, the forest/pulp industry, electronics and medicine manufacturing, and ski resorts were established. This era continued until the early 2000s and was characterised by a steady path importation and extension. These developments were mostly driven by the state and large companies, and they were primarily based on natural resources (hydropower, forests, and northern scenery), labour and state subsidies. The modes of agency were very typical to the Finnish regional development thinking of that

time. The role of the public sector has been emphasised. The central government focused on promoting industrialisation and building infrastructure by providing firms with tax relief and investment aid. Agency was characterised by an active central government, responsive local/regional actors (especially municipalities), as well as local lobbyists for external resources and participation in the implementation of industrialisation and infrastructure projects. There was no space or need for local actors to develop strong place leadership. Innovative entrepreneurship remained rather weak and a culture of SMEs did not emerge. In addition, institutional entrepreneurship was not fostered. The second phase began with a critical juncture. The beginning of the new millennium was characterised by industrial path exhaustion. The negative outlier period dates to 2002–2006. In a short period, the closure of the pharmaceutical (2002), electronics (2004) and pulp (2008) factories caused a permanent change in the sub-region’s development path. Manufacturing companies followed the market situation and cost-efficiency, moving their production to cheaper-cost countries and reducing capacity. Eastern Lapland subsequently became trapped by its past path, and it became overly reliant on the agency of the central government and that of a few corporations. Local networks in search of new paths were weak, and both financial and human resources were scarce. Additionally, the formal governance system for regional policy had earlier created a way for Eastern Lapland to interact with national-level resource holders and decision makers. When the formal system changed, local actors struggled to access national networks. The third phase, in the 2010s, was a period of struggle aimed at replacing lost jobs. It can be characterised by decay and by a decreasing and aging population: post-industrial path exhaustion. However, there are signals of a renewed pulp path as upgraded path extension by renewal and diversification. Locals are pursuing a new one-billion-euro modern biorefinery via Chinese investments and a surrounding wood-based business ecosystem. Drivers behind this pursuit are mostly agency-related. Some local actors have adopted a new active role as innovative entrepreneurs and looked for new partnerships. Also, the public sector is showing place leadership. In addition, new technologies in pulp manufacturing have evolved, and global demand for new pulp-based materials is emerging. The outcomes of these efforts remain unclear. There are also examples of path importation, as some new manufacturing jobs have been established, and path diversification, as a new sawmill is widening the field of the forest industry. The tourism industry is slowly evolving and upgrading its path by climbing the value chain. First, we can say that structural preconditions have played an important role in the regional development of Eastern Lapland. The remoteness, narrow educational and employment possibilities, and lack of capital have created a challenging point of departure. On the other hand, regional strengths and natural resources like wood and beautiful landscapes have provided the basis for productive economic activities, although these have to a large extent been harnessed by extra-regional actors. The negative outlier period in 2002–2006 was caused by factory closures and decisions made elsewhere in distant locations based on impersonal market conditions. Second, agency does matter, and it has become even more important in the slow recovery process. The low number of actors in the sub-region makes it institutionally thin and therefore vulnerable. Nevertheless, it is not just the amount but also the quality of agency that

affects regional development. The local agency follows the pattern learned in the past: Key actors target radical developments (big projects) and lobby for external resources and power holders. The public sector (e.g. the state, municipalities) has always been expected to assume the leadership role in the sub-region. The purpose of searching for and launching mega- projects is to return Eastern Lapland to its industrial path – or an upgraded version thereof. Locals dream of enacting positive, abrupt changes to replace the consequences of negative changes. Still, the development strategy can be regarded as mostly path defensive. The positive side to this is that regional agency and some innovative entrepreneurship have been motivated to launch initiatives due to current challenges. Simultaneously, they are also facing the same challenges as before: the final decisions that shape the future of the sub-region are still made elsewhere.

Appendix 1. Interviews Number of interviews: 13 from sub-region/region + 2 covering more than one region Date range of interviews: 28.3.2019 – 18.12.2019 Average duration of interviews: 91 minutes Firms: 5 Government: 5 Universities/HEI: 0 Industry support organizations: 4 Other: 1 (local media)

7 JAKOBSTAD (PIETARSAARI) SUB-REGION Heli Kurikka

7.1 Regional characteristics

Location and connections Jakobstad (Pietarsaari) sub-region is located along the west coast of Finland. It is the second biggest sub-region in the Österbotten (Pohjanmaa region) after Vaasa. It consists of five municipalities: Jakobstad (Pietarsaari), Kronby (Kruunupyy), Larsmo (Luoto), Pedersöre and Nykarleby (Uusikaarlepyy). The Jakobstad sub-region has the highest share of Swedish speakers (75%) in continental Finland. Finland’s main North–South railway crosses the Jakobstad sub-region, which is about 3 hours and 40 minutes away from Helsinki, Finland’s capital, by train. An industrial track to Alholmen Industrial Park in Jakobstad branches off from the main track. Roadways along the western coast of Finland are well constructed, especially Highway 19 and Highway 3 to the south, which are important routes. The sub-region shares an airport with Kokkola in the north, with Vaasa airport nearby in the south. In the early 2000s, there were six daily flights to Helsinki and two to Stockholm, but since then, flights have decreased considerably. Jak- obstad also has a growing harbour, and the sub-region as a whole has been very active in improving its accessibility over recent decades (roads, harbour, railway, flights), as connections are vital for maintaining its strong export industry.

50 km

Figure 11. Map of Jakobstad sub-region (Map information, Liiteri, 2019)

Population dynamics The population of the Jakobstad sub-region has remained mostly steady, at around 50,000 people. In the 1990s, the population decreased slightly, but since 2002 this trend has reversed, with modest population growth occurring until the end of the 2010s. The sub-region’s birth rate is higher than the Finnish average, and foreign net migration is positive, whereas domestic net migration is negative. The share of foreign-born residents (4.6%) was the fifth highest among all Finnish sub-regions in 2015. One challenge is how to attract and retain young people. The availability of skilled labour has also been an issue, especially in the economic upturn of the 2000s. A closer look at the internal dynamics of the region reveals some differences between municipalities. For instance, while the Jakobstad (regional centre) and the municipalities of Kronby and Nykarleby are slowly losing residents, the municipalities of Luoto and Pedersöre are gaining residents. There is no obvious explanation for the population growth that occurred in the Jakobstad sub-region in the 2000s, but it may be attributable to increased job availability and increased foreign net migration. Additionally, in Luoto and Pedersöre, their sizeable Christian communities promote large families and thus contribute to a higher birth rate. Negative net migration is occurring as a result of young people leaving the region to study. This pattern, however, is being offset to some extent by a good vocational school in Jakobstad, which has managed to retain a large number of local young people in the region. Another factor that is slowing outmigration is language, as many Swedish-speaking residents are reluctant to move outside the region – but, on the other hand, this makes migration to Sweden easier. Currently, attracting Finnish-speaking people to live in the region is difficult, and as such the share of Finnish-speaking residents has been declining.

60000 1,12

1,10 50000 1,08

40000 1,06

1,04 30000 1,02 Population index Population

20000 1,00

0,98 10000 0,96

0 0,94

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Jakobstad population Jakobstad population index (1990=1) Finland, population index (1990=1)

Figure 12. Population in the Jakobstad sub-region 1991-2015, absolute and indexed (StatFin, 2018)

14000

12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

- 14 15 - 24 25 - 44 45 - 64 65 -

Figure 13. Population by age groups in the Jakobstad sub-region 1991-2017 (StatFin, 2018)

Industrial mix and education The Jakobstad sub-region has a versatile industrial economy. Agriculture has been and still is the most significant employer as of 2015, but the number of agricultural jobs dropped by almost half during the observation period (Figure 14). The fur industry is another primary, distinctive sector of the sub-region’s economy. The food industry has also grown steadily, and has become the largest industrial employer. Likewise, construction and other business activities have also been growing. The pulp industry was the most important industrial employer in the 1990s, but the number of jobs directly tied to the pulp industry decreased drastically beginning in the 2000s. The manufacture of transport equipment is also important, with the boat industry having a particularly long history in the sub-region. Other types of prominent manufacturing include different kinds of machinery as well as metal and plastic products. Compared to the Finnish average, the share of jobs in the secondary sector in Jakobstad is very high, whereas the share of jobs in the tertiary sector is lower. Likewise, the level of public employment in Jakobstad is also lower than the Finnish average. The sub- region is characterised by a large number of small and medium-size enterprises (SMEs) and significant local entrepreneurship. It is also one of the most export-oriented regions in Fin- land. The unemployment rate is very low in general and has often been the lowest in all of continental Finland.

4000 Health and social work Education Agriculture, hunting and related service activities 3500 Manufacture of food products and beverages Construction Other business activities 3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Figure 14. Top six employing sectors in the Jakobstad sub-region 1990-2015 (StatFin 2018)

The education level (Figure 15) in the Jakobstad sub-region is lower than the Finnish average. There are no own higher education institutions in the sub-region, but Centria University of Applied Sciences (with its main campus in Kokkola) arranges business studies, and once administered fur design and marketing study programmes, in Jakobstad. Additionally, Yrkeshögskolan Novia (main campus in Vaasa) administers culture study programmes in Jakobstad, and Åbo Akademi (main campus in Turku) educated kindergarten teachers. This education programme has since ended. In any case, the total number of higher education students in the sub-region is low; after 2000, the number of degrees offered by universities of applied sciences has varied between 35 and 110, and kindergarten teacher students has varied between 25 and 70 (StatFin, 2019). The few available study programmes have also faced recruitment challenges, and some have been cut accordingly. The remaining study programmes do not completely accommodate local business needs – the lack of engineering education is especially problematic. Optima Vocational Upper Secondary Education and Training School in Jakobstad has been awarded the title of best vocational school in Finland eight times. The school has a higher profile and is more attractive than Finnish vocational schools in general. Still, industry in the sub-region is heavily dependent on its ability to attract an educated labour force from university cities like Vaasa. Many young people are also keen on studying in Sweden.

7.2 Variables of the structural model The Jakobstad sub-region was a positive outlier in 2012–2015. This is because there was actual employment growth during this period, and the rate of employment growth exceeded the model prediction. Moreover, it seems that the Jakobstad sub-region endured the 2008- 2009 downturn with relatively little economic damage. Employment growth in 2012–2015 was rather moderate in absolute terms but was still generally better than the rest of Finland, where, during that period, it was negative.

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Jakobstad region Finland

Figure 15. Share of tertiary education in the Jakobstad sub-region (age group 25+) (StatFin, 2019)

0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Primary sector, % Secondary sector, % Tertiar y sector, % Primary sector, Finland, % Secondary sector, Finland, % Tertiary sector, Finland, %

Figure 16. Sectoral composition in the Jakobstad sub-region (StatFin, 2019)

2,50 0,03

2,00 0,025 1,50 0,02 1,00 0,015 0,01 0,50 0,005 0,00 0 -0,50 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 -0,005 -1,00 -0,01 -1,50 -0,015 -2,00 -0,02 -2,50 -0,025

Residual Employment growth (4 year MA)

Figure 17. Employment growth and model prediction residuals in the Jakobstad sub-region

25000 120

100 20000

80 15000 60 10000 40

5000 20

0 0

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Jakobstadsregionen employed nace 1-74 Jakobstadsregionen all employed

Jakobstadsregionen employment index (all employed) Finland employment index (all employed)

Figure 18. Number of employed and employment indexes in the Jakobstad sub-region (1991=100) (data from StatFin, 2020 and Statistics Finland, 2018).

The variables used in the employment regression model are presented in Figure 19. The variables are indexed in such a way that year 1995=100. Index indicates the relative changes of each variable. In Table 3, these variables are ranked in relation to other sub-regions (68) in continental Finland. High-tech manufacturing and the manufacturing share experienced a strong downturn in the 2008-2009 recession. Manufacturing share has been among the top 10 in Finland, while high-tech manufacturing is typically average. However, high-tech manufacturing has increased such that, in 2015, the Jakobstad sub-region had the 15th highest share. The sub-region is heavily dependent on export-oriented industries and was as such adversely impacted by the 2008 global crisis. However, they recovered quickly. Industrial specialisation (theil) fell with manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing in 2008 but afterwards recovered to an even higher level than before the crisis, whereas industrial diversity decreased. Surprisingly, however, diversity (1/HHI) in relation to other sub-regions increased. This means that, on average, diversity in Finland has declined but less so in the Jakobstad sub-region, which had the third highest diversity in Finland in 2015. Company (establishment) size in Jakobstad sub-region is also among the smallest, shrinking slightly since 2004, indicating the entrepreneurial characteristics of the region. This demonstrates the shift in employment from big corporations towards SMEs. The share of knowledge-intensive services in Jakobstad is low compared to most sub-regions, but it has nonetheless exhibited stable growth. One reason for this may be that bigger companies are outsourcing their operations – that said, actual growth has indeed occurred. In terms of public employment, the Jakobstad sub-region ranks among the lowest in Finland but is increasing slightly. Addition- ally, the area can be considered wealthy, as the household median income is among the top 15 and continues to improve. In 2015, it was the fourth best sub-region in Finland in terms of median income. Human capital, although lower than the Finnish average, is also improving.

Employment (nace1-74) 180 Public employment 160 Household median income

140 Size of establishments

120 Higher education over 25 yrs.

100 Population

80 High tech employment

60 Employment in knowledge intensive services 40 Employment in manufacturing

20 Diversity

0 Specialisation 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Figure 19. Relative change in the variables behind the employment model - the Jakobstad sub-region

Table 3. Variables behind the employment model and their relative positions among other sub-regions - the Jakobstad sub-region.

Variable (N=68) 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Public employment % public employment 25.89% 26.21% 25.35% 27.58% 27.50%

Rank (sub-regions) 60 50 57 43 48 Human capital % of tertiary degree +25 18.56% 21.14% 23.83% 26.40% 28.07%

Rank (sub-regions) 28 28 28 24 24 High-tech manufacturing % of employment 4.86% 3.53% 4.17% 4.84% 5.70%

Rank (sub-regions) 34 44 38 31 17 Knowledge-intensive busi- % employment 26.28% 29.03% 29.72% 33.17% 32.75% ness services (KIBS) Rank (sub-regions) 47 40 54 46 59 Manufacturing % employment 32.44% 32.89% 33.55% 29.01% 30.25%

Rank (sub-regions) 8 8 5 7 4 Establishment average size Number of people 52,585 5,456 55,326 4,972 4,797

Rank (sub-regions) 15 12 6 7 7 Population density Pop / km2 1,970 1,957 1,969 2,006 2,022

Rank (sub-regions) 26 26 25 25 25 Household median income Euro 15,988 17,736 20,758 22,843 23,252 per person Rank (sub-regions) 15 10 5 10 4 Diversity 1/HHindex) 17,11 17,43 18,33 16,49 15,87

Rank (sub-regions) 17 12 4 6 3 Specialisation Theil 0,22 0,25 0,26 0,24 0,30

Rank (sub-regions) 45 43 39 41 25

7.3 Regional development trajectories

Structural changes The regional development trajectory is mainly based on interview data, but it has been supported by information from Rosenblad (2017), regional development reports for 2006–2015 (Alueelliset kehitysnäkymät ja Alueelliset talousnäkymät, 2006–2015) by the Ministry of Economy and Employment, and regional newspapers Ilkka and Pohjalainen news archives. Overall, economic development in the Jakobstad sub-region can be characterised by continuity, i.e. there are no obvious phases. Instead, it is typified by slow transformation and manageable structural (i.e. ‘creeping’) change. Importantly, the sub-region’s industrial base has become more versatile in size and variety, making it less vulnerable to adverse fluctuations in general economic business cycles. Until the 1990s, the forest industry and its core, the pulp industry, were the most dominant businesses alongside the metal industry, which is in part connected to the forest industry. There is no single reason for this transformation, but we can see that the recessions in the 1990s and in 2009 reduced jobs in traditionally large corporations. Sim- ultaneously, many small manufacturing enterprises became middle-sized and were able to successfully access global markets. The emphasis has thus shifted from a couple of large employers to family-owned SMEs. Additionally, the food industry has attained prominence in the Jakobstad sub-region, while the forest industry has been divided into several companies and created smaller companies around the core. In many ways, the basis for the successful and diverse industries was laid in the 1990s and even earlier, when many companies were established. The results of their development efforts became evident in the 2000s, with the development trajectories of the most important sectors becoming increasingly elaborated. As we can see, the story of the Jakobstad sub-region is not one but many – sometimes overlapping, occasionally interactive, but essentially, mutually independent.

Early days 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s

Pulp and sawmills are the core. Creating the industrial basis for Strengthening of family-owned manufacturing Positive outlier 2012– Increasing globalisation, Recession other regional strengths: food production, boat building, entre- SMEs and exports. Recession reduces jobs of 2015. Active public + big employers. more versatile structure

preneurial small crafts and metals private investments

v Snellman Slow growth Enlargement Rapid growth FOOD IN- meat DUSTRY house

Snellman buying other 1951 Some spin-offs food companies

Schaumann Unprofitable in 1970s–1980s Globalising Modernising Forest industry ecosystem New bio-product thinking

sawmill 1835, FOREST IN- pulp mill 1935 DUSTRY Business fields sold à new companies

Energy business:

Alholmens Kraft

Heavy metal

Spin-offs

machine manufac-Establishment of manufac-

from forest v turing turing companies industry Growing exports, niche fields Growth OTHER MANU-FAC- Metal machine Small industrial ma- TURING Fading consumer manufacturing nufacturers product industry

Subcontracting network

Yacht shipyards v and competence buil- YACHT established Difficult times ding Difficult times Recovery MANU-FAC-

TURING Long history v

Foreign of boat buil- Small subcontractors ding ownership (Nautor)

Structures for regional Multiple public investments Looking for direction GENERAL DEVE- Export coope- development rative estab- 81 LOPMENT Culture and edu- lished Development cation centre company Population opened graph turns Infrastructure development projects positive

Part of the structural changes that have occurred in the Jakobstad sub-region can be at- tributed to the disappearance of some industries, as costs are lower elsewhere. This has especially been the case with consumer products. The cigar factory closed in the 1990s, and the clothing and furniture industries faded even earlier. The metal industry has struggled, with some units being closed, others finding new owners (national or international), and new kinds of products being offered. Despite these setbacks, or perhaps because of them, the Jakobstad sub- region has prospered. New jobs have always emerged to replace lost jobs or jobs that were no longer competitive. What drivers are responsible for the emergence of new jobs? The sub-region does not have high- quality R&D infrastructure or institutions like universities. Therefore, the source for regional renewal is not (radical) technological innovations. That said, companies in the sub-region are indeed innovative insofar as they select ideas from their international networks or establish spin-offs and further develop products and processes. The rationale for this approach is to be at the forefront of the commercialisation of new ideas and the adoption of new standards, like rigorous environmental criteria. Such companies concentrate on quality over price and seek out niche fields (e.g. companies like Beamex, Solving and Mirka). Moreover, they maintain close regional cooperation networks, as they are usually not competitors – and even competitors can cooperate. The institutional environment encourages entrepreneurship, business and foreign trade, which have long roots but have also evolved over the last few decades. Most residents are personally committed to the sub-region and want to live their lives there. The solution, then, is often entrepreneurship. Even when companies grow or fall under foreign ownership, they remain strongly embedded in the region and maintain their operations there. People, their networks and their business capabilities comprise the core of this positive development trajectory.

Development trajectories by industry The strong growth of the food sector originated in the success and growth of the family-owned food manufacturer Snellman, which employs over 1,000 workers in Jakobstad (in 2018). Snellman was established in 1951 by five brothers whose 350 descendants over three generations continue to own the company. Key events in Snellman’s growth from a local small company to a nationally significant food manufacturer include the investment in new facilities in 1993 and rapid market growth in 2005–2013 after the implementation of a new strategic growth plan. The company’s growth was due in part to its ambition to become a corporation by buying other brands, like Kokkikartano and Mush, as well as strong marketing. Snellman constantly engages in product development and is always seeking to capitalise on the latest trends, e.g. the first ready-packed sliced meat in the beginning of the 1990s, and the first ready-packed lunch salads in 2000s, which in turn produced the successful spin-off ‘Fresh Servant’. The Snellman family incorporates 20 enterprises, some of which are spin-offs. To- day, Snellman is the third largest meat product manufacturer in Finland. The Finnish market is thus its main focal area, and the company represents the most domestic business sector in the Jakobstad sub-region. Even during the latest recession, Snellman and the rest of the food

industry continued to prosper, as they were not directly affected by global market interfer- ence. The forest industry has remained strong in Jakobstad, and it has a long history in the region. Schaumann first established a sawmill in Jakobstad in 1835, followed by the opening of a pulp mill in 1935. The early 1960s saw increased investment in the pulp mill in Jakobstad, after which the town became highly industrialised, but facing a loss in profitability in the sector in the 1970s and 1980s. The pulp business was subsequently sold in 1988 to Finnish forest company Kymmene, which merged with the Finnish global corporation UPM-Kym- mene (later UMP) in 1996. When globalisation began impacting the region, UPM’s relationship with Jakobstad deteriorated, and quartile economy laws were introduced. The Jakobstad sub- region could have suffered from these developments, but it instead found a way to benefit. UPM’s massive 300 million euro investment in 2002 in the Jakobstad pulp factory represented a turning point in this regard. The pulp factory was equipped with the world’s largest pulp recovery boiler, securing the future of the factory for decades to come. At that time, the Jakobstad pulp factory was the most modern and environmentally friendly of UPM’s pulp factories. The number of workers in the pulp industry was at its highest in 2002 (during the 1990– 2015 observation period). Since then, the number of workers has declined. Where once jobs were concentrated in the pulp factory itself, now they are composed primarily of subcontractors, networks and related companies. New jobs are created more on an entrepreneurial basis and for providing, e.g. industrial services. The new business logic focuses on core com- petences so that, especially 2000s and 2010s UPM has sold its business divisions like special papers and packing papers that have continued in the sub-region under new owners like Swedish Billerund Korsnäs. Therefore, sub-region’s industrial structure has also become more dispersed. An important development in this regard was the establishment of the world’s largest biofuel power plant, Alholmens Kraft, which utilises, e.g. wood waste from the industry. A wood-related business ecosystem has thus emerged as a replacement for the old one-company model. Other companies have been collaborating in the Alholmens Industrial Park area, fuelling the regional economy to the tune of 1.1 billion euros, most of it export- related, and sustaining 2,200 jobs. In the 2010s, novel bio-product thinking revitalised the pulp industry, which had by that time been considered a fading business. The pulp industry has also greatly influenced the emergence of other manufacturing companies in different fields, including metal machinery, calibrating devices, heavy-load handling systems and plastic fluid packages, from the 1960s until the present day. Not all of the sub-region’s manufacturing industries are connected to the forest industry. With Jakobstad’s long tradition of manufacturing, many of its currently leading employers, which were initially established in the 1940s to 1960s, have grown from small-scale industries to global niche field success stories and market leaders. These companies encompass a large variety of fields, such as sanding tools, bicycle parts, lights for heavy machines and transport trailers. Most of these companies are still locally owned and remain strongly embedded in the region.

The Jakobstad sub-region has a tradition of ship and boat building dating back hundreds of years. Today, the region is home to two big luxury yacht firms: Nautor Swan (since 1966) and Baltic Yachts (since 1973). Both of these companies are globally known high-profile brands. Although the yacht industry employs many people, its most important contribution is the reputation for excellence and quality that it conveys to the region. The success of the boat industry as a whole varies because of its sensitivity to world economic forces. Nautor Swan was owned by Scaumann, and later by UPM, from 1969 until 1998, thereby highlighting the intertwined nature of local business networks and overlapping industry borders. A key event for the boat industry in the Jakobstad sub-region was the 1998 purchase of Nautor by an Italian investor, who introduced a network-based business logic to the boat business. This logic generated many specialised SMEs in different segments, like specific parts or boat furniture. Similarly, in 2013, Baltic Yachts was sold to German investors. And yet, the excellent reputation, services and handicrafts, and know-how concerning luxury boat building for de- manding customers for which the Jakobstad sub-region is known have instilled deep bonds that have kept manufacturing in the region despite foreign ownership. For their part, the new owners have provided new networks and infused capital and novel design know-how. Primary production has been the sub-region’s biggest employer despite dramatic production decreases. Along with food production, the fur industry is important, in spite of its many ups and downs, as it is a traditional livelihood in the area, even though its golden days in the 1970s and 1980s have long since passed. The fur industry has generated hundreds of millions in revenue to enterprises in good market years, which is one reason why rural areas have remained economically vital. However, potential future megatrends do not seem to bode well for the fur market. As early as the 1990s, the decline of the fur industry began to give rise to many small subcontracting companies (e.g. in metal) as entrepreneurs moved on to other businesses. In the 2000s, the effects of construction on employment were significant. Construction is typically a volatile sector prone to financial disturbances – but in the Jakobstad sub-region, investments in construction remained steady throughout recessions due to multiple ongoing infrastructure projects. The construction of roads, harbours and railways along with the building of the Campus Allegro building and associated parking caves, in part funded by UPM and other companies, have ensured the stability of the construction sector. Much has happened in the operational environment of the Jakobstad sub-region over the last 30 years. In the early 1990s, universities of applied sciences were established based on existing education institutions around the country. The Optima vocational school made the strategic choice not to apply for an upgrade to the position of a university of applied sciences. Instead, the school pursued a strategy of becoming the best vocational school in Finland. Although the Jakobstad sub-region has been challenged by a shortage in available highly educated labour, Optima’s strategy was likely the most realistic option, as three universities of applied sciences have already been established in nearby regional centres. As mentioned above, Optima has been recognised as the best vocational school in Finland on eight separate occasions, and it is highly regarded among local companies. Besides, the opening of Campus

Allegro, a culture and education centre, in 2013 provided the sub-region with a ‘facelift’, assembling numerous higher education study programmes in one location. However, a setback for education occurred in 2016 when the decision was made to end Swedish-speaking kindergarten teacher education. The city centre has developed substantially in the last few decades. Daily consumer trade services have improved, and the city centre even won the ‘liveliest town center’ competition in Finland in 2017. At the end of the 1990s, mutual business development services in the Jakobstad sub- region took their first steps. In 1997, Uusyrityskeskus (Enterprise Agency), and in 1999, regional development company Concordia, both owned by municipalities, were established. Regional cooperation between municipalities had existed before, but it had now become more institutionalised. According to some interpretations, the Jakobstad Housing Fair (a large annual fair in which a new housing area is built somewhere in Finland) gave a mental boost to the launching of development activities. As mentioned earlier, several infrastructure investments have supported regional vitality and industry. Many of these projects were finished by the end of the 2010s, but they were the result of longstanding promotional activities. These projects included a new road to Alholmen Industrial Park, which opened in 2016; harbour construction, which was completed over the course of the last 25 years (deepening finished in 2016); the electrification of an industrial track (2017); and the completion of a new triangle track (2019). Of all these achievements, the connection of a passing highway to the main road network in 2018 was considered a local victory in particular.

Main changes and change of industrial paths Structural industrial change has been ‘creeping’ along, slow and manageable in nature. It is not so much being driven by technological innovations but by institutional learning on how to do business and foreign trade. Other industrial changes have also made a big impact. Some industries are no longer competitive in terms of costs, but new companies have been able to fetch new ideas from abroad and integrate them into successful businesses in high-quality niche fields. In this sense, the local/regional spatial scale is important as a platform of learning and cooperation, while the international scale serves as the main market area. In this context, national-level considerations have less significance. Because of the versatile nature of industries in the Jakobstad sub-region, competition is not viewed as a problem. The logic of industrial path development varies by industry. The strategy of many middle-sized manufacturing companies is to transform special and high-quality products into global niche fields (upgrading by niche development). These companies often select ideas from abroad, especially from Sweden. Forest clustering, for example, has developed through related diversification. Many companies and industries were born as spin-offs from the forest core, e.g. metal, machinery and high-tech equipment that were originally an internal part of the pulp company. The growth of the food sector is mostly based on climbing the value chain by upgrading skills and production capabilities. This has happened in the boat industry as well, but we can also see renewal in the boat industry’s business model development, which has become more networked.

Table 4. Types of new industrial path development in the Jakobstad sub-region

Types Mechanisms Observed in Jakob- stad sub-region Upgrading I – Climbing GPN Major change of a regional industrial path related to enhancement of position Food industry within global production networks; moving up the value chain based on up- Boat industry grading skills and production capabilities II – Renewal Major change of an industrial path in a new direction based on new technolo- Boat industry gies or organisational innovations, or new business models III – Niche development Development of a leading position in a market niche Manufacturing companies in multiple fields Diversification I – Related Diversification into a new related industry for the region, building on compe- Forest industry tencies and knowledge of existing industries II – Unrelated Diversification into a new industry based on unrelated knowledge combinations

Emergence I – Importation Setting up an established industry that is new to the region (e.g. through non- local firms) and unrelated to existing industries in the region

II – New creation Emergence and growth of entirely new industries based on radically new technologies and scientific discoveries or as an outcome of search processes for new business models, user-driven innovations and social innovations (Adapted from Grillitsch, M., & Asheim, B. (2018). Place-based innovation policy for industrial diversification in regions. European Planning Studies, 26(8), 1638-1662).

7.4 Change agency

Events underpinning change agency A number of interesting events have transpired in the Jakobstad sub-region, but we have chosen to examine five of them in more detail. The chosen cases describe distinctive characteristics of regional agency, and each has contributed to the regional growth path to some extent. However, they do not explain all of the changes in development trajectories. Rather, they depict slow, cumulative processes that occur in multiple fields, not sudden turning points. The factors responsible for these incremental processes are more than situation-specific; they are often deeply culturally rooted issues, like values and practices. All in all, 17 events were collected and analysed. We refer to different types of agency according to the ‘trinity of change agency’ model (see chapter 3.2).

Nautor shipyard sold to Italian owner Nautor is a luxury yacht manufacturer established in 1966. The company employs about 250 people, not including those working in its subcontracting network, and it has produced over 2,000 yachts, which are in service all over the world. In 1971, Schaumann, a local pulp company, bought Nautor. In 1998, UPM, the new owner of the pulp company, sold Nautor to Italian investors. We take a closer look at this event because it serves as an example of how production shifted towards a more networked model, how international ownerships have entered the sub-region, and what kinds of roles different actors have played in the process. UPM wanted to focus on its core business, and so it sold off its other enterprises. Italian investor, a fashion mogul Leonardo Ferragamo, who had a passion for Nautor Swan yachts,

bought the company for the purpose of further developing it. Ferragamo considered the brand and its quality to be excellent, but he also believed that the business model needed renewal. He installed a new, Italian CEO, and together they introduced new production techniques, design expertise, subcontracting networks and yacht models. They also infused capital into the company to enlarge its production capacity and offered their valuable network to a global clientele of luxury boat customers. They operated as innovative entrepreneurs by generating novel combinations of knowledge and resources from extra-regional and regional sources. But the Italian owners also acknowledged the value of local know-how, committed employees and Finnish-quality yacht building, all of which have deeply embedded yacht manufacturing in the region. Consequently, the owners did not move operations to cheaper-cost countries. Creating a subcontracting network naturally generated regional effects. At first the locals were unconvinced about the new subcontracting system. Thus, Nautor needed help introducing their new operational system and securing partnerships in the sub-region. In this respect, the company had to find a way to change the regional mindset, and as such it assumed the role of an institutional entrepreneur. The Regional Chamber of Commerce came to Nautor’s aid, providing the company with its networks and other assistance, i.e. place-based leadership, to mobilise resources. Together, they invited potential local SMEs to attend international boat fairs in Germany and Italy in 1999 to determine what makes production networks successful. The outcome of their efforts was as transformative as it was productive: Although the old- fashioned ways of manufacturing yacht parts within one company were irrevocably changed, more than 20 local SMEs now specialise in manufacturing various yacht parts for Nautor.

World’s largest biomass power plant, Alholmens Kraft The second case we examine is the establishment of the world’s largest biomass power plant, Alholmens Kraft, in Jakobstad, in 2001. This case in particular serves as an excellent example of the nature of agency in the Jakobstad sub-region: the strength of regional and international networks and of cooperation between public and private actors. At the end of the 1990s, residents of Jakobstad and the local management of the UPM forest company identified a mutual opportunity. The city of Jakobstad needed energy solutions for district heating, but they also wanted to be involved in the company responsible for producing it. For its part, UPM needed to find a way to utilise its wood waste. The vice mayor and city board chairman (who was also the board chairman of the local electricity company) contacted UPM (having people from Jakobstad in UPM’s high positions) about the prospects for energy cooperation. UPM owned a majority of the Finnish energy company Pohjolan Voima, so they had access to energy know-how and were able to steer the construction of a power plant in Jakobstad. However, the lack of local capital presented a significant obstacle. An enabling factor in this regard was that people working in the city of Jakobstad had personal networks with the Skellefteå municipality in Sweden. Skellefteå had water energy but they needed adjustment energy. A new opportunity space was created as the Nordic power grid generated a common ‘pool’ of electricity. The Skellefteå municipality

and the Swedish forest company Graningeverket decided to jointly invest in the project together with the Finnish energy company Pohjolan Voima (owned by UPM). Public actors played a role as institutional entrepreneurs by trying to introduce a new kind of energy production model. Moreover, they were place-based leaders in that they were seeking to mobilise resources, but they were also tapping into the field of innovative entrepreneurship, as they wanted the city to be involved in the energy business. This kind of multiple role is typical in the Jakobstad sub-region. For their part, the companies played the role of innovative entrepreneurs by introducing the latest technological solutions to the largest biomass cogeneration power station in the world. Although the construction of the power plant did not directly have massive employment effects, it nonetheless constituted an important piece of the industrial puzzle of the new Alholmen Industrial Park business ecosystem. The venture can also be viewed as a form of path diversification from wood-based products to energy production.

Investment in the UPM pulp mill The third event we examine is the huge investment in the UPM pulp mill in Jakobstad in 2002. This event was considered critical by several interviewees. For one, it secured the future of the forest industry in Jakobstad, although whether it represents a continuation of the existing industrial path (reproductive agency) or breaking it (change agency) remains in question. Via a 300 million euro investment, Jakobstad became home to the world’s largest pulp recovery boiler as well as attaining the status of the biggest wood user in all of Finland at that time. The new technologies that were introduced were also environmentally friendly. By the early 2000s, the mill was the biggest employer in the sub-region, employing over 1,300 people. So, then, what kind of agency was behind this investment? It was not expected that the small town of Jakobstad would be able to convince its global owner, UPM, to modernise the mill. However, the local management of UPM actively promoted the investment. They thought – and rightly so – that to survive in the long run, they needed to grow, become more environmentally friendly, and be more efficient. The opportunity space they envisioned went against the mainstream in the sense that they wanted to keep the pulp, not the paper, as the core of the industry. This unlikely orientation proved to be a good move, as pulp is now seen as a valuable new bioproduct material, whereas the fine paper industry has degenerated. This type of strategic thinking demonstrates innovative entrepreneurship with a future orientation at the local scale. Because pulp mills always produce energy as a side-product, cooperation and shared investment costs with an energy company were important. The investment was also enabled by high-level contacts inside UPM, because the influence of local management was limited. The local authorities could not do much to promote the investment. The previous Jakobstad pulp mill director, who was born in Jakobstad and had held many positions (local politics, influential positions in national interest organisations), had been promoted to the vice CEO of UPM. With the help of this contact, UPM decision makers were convinced to invest, i.e. used place-based leadership.

Although this investment decision was not made in Jakobstad, its consequences positively impacted the sub-region. Construction employed a considerable number of people in the 2002–2004 period, although the total number of jobs in the UPM factory did not increase – indeed, due to subcontracting policies, the number of jobs actually decreased. That said, the total number of people employed by the forest sector or associated industries did increase. In sum, both the investment and the choice to emphasise pulp probably saved the very heart of the forest industry in Jakobstad since, after 2005, paper demand began to fall and several paper-specialised towns in Finland consequently faced factory crises and closures.

Growth of Snellman Corporation The fourth case, the growth of the food manufacturer Snellman, was chosen because it can provide a partial explanation for the positive outlier period in 2012–2015. The food sector as a whole grew over the entire observation period, but especially in the 2010s. This is mostly attributable to the growth of the Snellman corporation, which has become the biggest single employer in the Jakobstad sub-region, with over 1,000 workers. This family-owned company has become the third biggest meat product manufacturer in Finland. The 2005–2013 period saw the biggest growth in the company alongside a new CEO, who came from outside the family. Snellman’s growth strategy was traditional in the sense that it bought other food companies and in doing so enlarged its own core business. Growth was not driven by radical technological innovations but instead by constant incremental product and process development, increasing capacities and strong marketing. The company was, for example, one of the first to introduce stories as part of their food brands. Company representatives have at- tributed Snellman’s success to its focus on quality and its care for employees. In many ways, Snellman is a traditional company. And yet, its strategy of doing things a little bit better than its competitors has been innovative. For instance, it was the first company in the food sector to introduce a variety of new consumer products, actively acquire certifications and improve its environmental processes. The company is also strongly embedded in the Jakobstad sub- region through its ownership. Snellman is on the whole keenly interested in the development of the entire operative environment. It is therefore clearly an illustrative example of a ‘network node’, one which is active in calling regional actors together to discuss common interests and strengthen networks.

Improvements of industrial railroad connections Our fifth example concerns the successful results of pursuing better connections to the Jak- obstad sub-region. The sub-region has managed to improve its harbour and road conditions, but we focus here on its railroad lobbying because it serves as a good example of how local influence networks operate to achieve common goals. The industrial railroad track to Alholmen Industrial Park was electrified in 2017, and a new track was opened in 2019. The realisation of such state investments can be considered as an achievement. The main trigger for improving the railroad was UPM’s need to increase the efficiency of wood transportation,

a goal which has been achieved. Industry in the region requires heavy transportation connections, and as such railroad improvements have supported these connections. Naturally, of course, the construction phase employed many people. The agency involved in promoting railroad connections is versatile, a typical feature of the Jakobstad sub-region. The process of promoting common infrastructure projects is usually initiated by companies in response to their needs. A small group of enterprise representatives informally collaborates on which infrastructure projects should be prioritised. Then, they contact the city or the Concordia development company and, together, they subsequently contact, e.g. the Ministry of Traffic and Communications. Companies have tight personal networks in the sub-region, so it is easy for them to coordinate common goals. Different actors, like Concordia, municipalities, politicians and companies, have been active in railway lobbying. This case is an example of shared place-based leadership, which is employed to attract vital state resources to the sub-region. Their strategy was to convince key state- level people to place the track project on the list of state funding. This was accomplished by relaying the same message to many different actors. The requests made by the companies played an especially important role in evaluating the importance of the investment. The companies were able to show that the number of jobs were growing, and as such new investments were compulsory. These regional actors often bypassed normal bureaucratic routes by invit- ing decision makers to visit the region. Companies and city representatives presented reasons why the projects were important, and they consequently gained the support of influential decision makers. Often, the company representatives were not members of the highest-level management but were instead people who assumed a position to enhance these projects. Another enabling factor in many of the successful infrastructure projects in the sub-region were regional resources: The regional actors (companies and municipalities) were willing to invest their own share. Ultimately, the successes achieved in attracting state resources were the result of using strong networks within and outside the sub-region and cultivating the sense of ‘mutual success’, which drove actors to work towards common goals.

7.5 Trinity of change agency It is difficult to draw conclusions about the significance of each of the abovementioned events to the general development trajectories of the Jakobstad sub-region. Certainly, these cases do tell us a lot about the nature of agency in the region as a whole. Next, we will describe more generally the key actors, which roles they assumed, how they perceived opportunity spaces, and what enablers and obstacles facilitated and stood in their way, respec- tively.

Place-based leadership Place-based leadership in the Jakobstad sub-region is by nature shared. It is about actions aimed at coordinating and mobilising actors and resources for collective pursuits. There is no single organisation that always takes the lead; rather, many organisations as well as individuals take the responsibility to ensure that common issues are addressed. Sometimes, this

causes coordination challenges. Surprisingly, business networks comprise the core of place- based leadership, while public actors view themselves in a supportive role.

‘Whenever I have known a minister visiting here (in the sub-region), we (a company) have tried to get a few half an hour meetings, to get our message forward. – Then, we have had meetings in the ministry, and we have taken the city representatives there with us’.

Support organisations, like the Concordia regional development company and the Regional Chamber of Commerce, are active in promoting common interests, such as mobilising resources, providing support structures for innovation and entrepreneurship, and creating a common vision. Concordia was established in 1999 to make regional development more visible and, e.g. to facilitate the creation of a sub-regional strategy. The Regional Chamber of Commerce in Jakobstad has a stronger role than in most regions in Finland. For instance, it transmits messages from companies to decision makers and vice versa, produces information to support decision making, and is strongly involved in enhancing regionally important projects. Some significant people, many of whom are key members of large companies, can be called place-based leaders, but they are not always the highest-level managers. Their most important tool is their social position in networks, i.e. they ‘know people’. Some local key people are involved in many different networks (local politics, company boards, national networks). These individuals are responsible for many initiatives, and this has made them very influential. Mayors have taken various positions over the years, some as place leaders and others more as officials. Municipalities have often played the role of resource provider, e.g. land and facilities. National politicians from the Jakobstad sub-region can operate as ‘door openers’ and thereby serve as a link to national politics. Political leadership in the sub- region is strongly focused on one party, Svenska Folkpartiet, which narrows contacts with state-level politicians of other parties.

Institutional entrepreneurship Institutional entrepreneurship is about challenging and transforming existing rules and practices. It would be reasonable to assume that public bodies operate with institutions – but in the case of the Jakobstad sub-region, it is once again companies that play a significant role in institutional change. For example, it was companies that introduced the new network and subcontracting business model with the help of regional support organisations. Companies were also active in creating and coordinating the Alholmen Industrial Park on their own, and the development company was just a one organisation among others in this regard. As early as the 1970s, companies in the region had established the first export cooperative, Viexpo, in Finland. This has helped SMEs especially to engage in foreign trade ever since. There are no higher education institutions (HEIs) that could adopt the role of a strong institutional entrepreneur, although nearby universities of applied sciences are initiating development projects in the region. Vocational school serves the needs of the practically oriented labour market and is of high quality, but it is not capable of providing new development paths for the sub-region. Many of the key people who could be described as place-based leaders are

the same people who also play the role of institutional entrepreneurs. These company representatives, entrepreneurs and local politicians present new ideas (like establishing a new culture and education campus) and also enhance these projects. However, institutional entrepreneurship could be considered the weakest form of change agency in the Jakobstad sub- region.

Innovative entrepreneurship Innovative entrepreneurship refers to actions aimed at transforming existing or creating new economic activities through the novel combination of knowledge and resources. The Jakob- stad sub-region is very entrepreneurial and international, but it is not always easy to identify how much is actually innovative entrepreneurship. Some of the sub-region’s companies are truly based on new technological innovations, like Mirka’s unique dust-free sanding tool technology. Some companies have created innovative business models, like high-quality hamburger chain Friends & Brgrs, which immediately reached international markets. Still, the strategic preference that repeatedly appears is continuous incremental development of products and processes. Is this actual change agency, or is it instead reproductive agency aimed at path continuation? Actually, we can see it in both ways. Many successful enterprises in the sub-region rely on quality products, the welfare and commitment of their workers, the identification of niche markets, investments in new facilities and international trade. These are all good qualities, but they are nonetheless ordinary ways of maintaining and growing business. However, international contacts are more than just markets, they are also a source of extra-regional knowledge. Many product ideas have been selected from around the world, often Sweden, and subsequently adopted and developed further in the Jakobstad sub-region, such as Solving’s heavy-load handling system based on air bearings. The Jakobstad sub-region is not just aa area of production but also an experimental arena in which the primary aim is the continuous improvement of products by making small adjustments – as such, this typifies one form of innovative entrepreneurship.

7.6 Opportunity spaces It can be argued that the regional opportunity space of Jakobstad has widened, as the industrial base has broadened, and many companies have strengthened their position in international markets. However, this begs an interesting question: What kinds of opportunity spaces have been perceived, and how are they connected to the observed development paths? First, the fundamental motivation among the regional actors is the strong and earnest desire to live in the Swedish-speaking home region. This leads to the need to create jobs. Entrepreneurial culture means that the way to ensure employment and growth is to establish companies. The logic of these companies thus differs from the short-term, profit-maximising interests of the quartile economy. These deeply embedded companies enshrine steadiness and responsibility as their core values alongside conducting profitable business, the benefits of which they can pass on to subsequent generations.

In addition to the strong entrepreneurial spirit, the diversified industrial base has been seen as an asset, not as a liability in need of narrowing specialisation. For example, a sub- region’s strategy does not choose to focus on a few industries. It is more concerned with the ways in which all businesses can be supported. Business opportunities are often sought from abroad, and exports therefore represent a natural step of growth. The solution to labour shortages has been sought from abroad, and work-based immigration has thus been encouraged. Simultaneously, companies see local tight business and personal networks as highly valuable. They form subcontracting networks and personal strong networks, each of which play a role as a platform for mutual learning. These networks are vital for the formation of joint, perceived regional opportunity spaces. This has been the case when adopting the idea of international trade via the example set by others. The nature of development opportunities is usually seen as incremental and proactive – as keeping on the move all the time. For example, investments even in economic downturns have been common, as such setbacks have been reframed as ‘opportunities’. Who, then, is expected to seek and utilise such opportunities? The answer is unofficial networks, in which companies and other actors self-organise. Different industries have naturally perceived opportunity spaces in their own ways. The food industry, for example, has chosen to focus on high-quality products and the pursuit of the latest trends. This industry perceives the opportunity space as mostly, but not completely, domestic. The forest industry viewed its future in terms of pulp (not fine paper), going against the grain of mainstream thinking in the 1990s and early 2000s. The change in thinking embodied by the forest industry has also manifested in the emergence of a forest industry ecosystem that has replaced the old one-company model. The manufacturing industry (like mechanical engineering) seeks to launch and sustain global niche fields and focuses on continuous improvements. This is similar to the opportunity space perceived by the boat industry, with its focus on the niche market of luxury boats. One trend the Jakobstad sub-region has not pursued is ICT, as it understands that its strengths lie elsewhere: in the practical skills of manufacturing and international sales know-how. Some shifts have occurred in the perceived opportunity spaces, but not radically so. As mentioned earlier, cooperative business models and subcontracting networks have become more common and have contributed to the birth of many new SMEs since the 1990s (e.g. the forest cluster and boat business subcontracting). Moreover, the international orientation has become even stronger, first in Sweden since the 1960s and 1970s, and now on a far more global level.

7.7 Change obstacles and enablers Many factors either enhance or prohibit change processes in the regional growth path, factors which are related with agent-specific constraints and capabilities. Additionally, the institutional environment can either support or hinder change as well. Moreover, relative access to knowledge and resources can either limit or enable renewal.

Generally speaking, regional actors in the Jakobstad sub-region have many capabilities that have supported internationalisation and the growth of SMEs. Language skills in the Jakob- stad sub-region are good, as are business and sales skills. On the other hand, low education and the lack of highly educated engineers and management professionals is problematic. They have compensated for this deficiency by cultivating practical manufacturing know-how and motivated labour. Furthermore, flexibility and trust are considered important on both sides: employers and employees. When it comes to resources, the Jakobstad sub-region has some of its own capital, which means that actors are able to invest and attract investments as they can pay for their own share. The sub-region does not receive large infusions of EU structural funds. Companies invest at their own risk, sometimes supported by municipalities. Risk taking at some level is accepted, even in the use of public resources, like guaranteeing company loans. They do not see this lack of regional development funds as a problem: only productive ideas receive investments when private money is at stake. State resources are important in infrastructure projects. These investments have been successfully secured by demonstrating that they are productive, not by appealing to a region’s poverty. Local family-owned companies have the power and will to choose their investments, and they prefer to support job creation in their own nearby area. Local resourcing is usually adequate – and if not, then the sub-region has the capacity to attract outside resources. This level of self-sufficiency and self-organising was effectively described by an interviewee:

‘We do a lot by ourselves. I think, I don’t need anything from them (the state). If we want a bridge, we build a bridge. If we want a road, we make a road. If we want a school, we will make a school’.

The most distinctive regional characteristic is the strength of networks. Networks were mentioned repeatedly in interviews as a core factor of success. Networks inside the sub-region are strong, personal, reciprocal, trust-based and shared, with the Swedish language serving as the glue. The third sector is often a connecting factor: sports, music and Christian associations create connections, e.g. in business, it is common to prefer to buy from a local friend or to hire a local. There exists a network of companies that can contact each other if they need help, e.g. if they need advice or can offer their workers ‘for rent’.

‘They call me (company to company) and ask what our situation is. Next week they would have two men available, do you have something (for them)? And this network is large, companies from Kokkola to Vaasa – they call me, if they have something and of course we’ll help. – There was a company which had a board meeting yesterday, and they asked if I could come by, give some advice and help them. “Of course”, I said’.

Even competitors like Nautor and Baltic Yachts cooperate in, for example, training issues. Regional strong networks are also exclusive to others, and as such they may exclude qualified people or business companionships from the outside. The number of key people in the sub- region is limited, and accordingly the same people often circulate in various companies. This, of course, has its pros and cons. Sometimes, it leads to crossing industry borders and learning

from other fields. The same people can also hold a number of positions in business and politics, which raises concerns about disqualifications or conflicts of interest – but, on the other hand, it also makes decision making and project planning and completion quick and efficient. Nevertheless, new people and ideas are always needed. Renewal is based on external networks when regional knowledge creation is limited. The Jakobstad sub-region is not very well connected nationally. Its networks reach mostly Swe- dish-speaking communities elsewhere in Finland (like Turku), but they do provide valuable contacts and resources to the sub-region. Bigger companies seek their R&D partnerships outside the sub-region (in Finland or abroad), but they do not see this as a problem. Social, cultural and business connections to Sweden are very strong, and global trade is active. These contacts bring in new ideas and resources. To conclude, the Jakobstad sub-region has a very strong bonding social capital. This supports path continuation, but it is not sufficient to create renewal. Strongly bridging social capital related to international connections has supported the importation of extra-regional knowledge and has contributed to the upgrading of paths. The Jakobstad sub-region could in this respect be regarded as dualistic: as a local club and an international hub. The institutional environment creates a framework in which the regional agency operates. There exist formal institutions, such as support organisations, that contribute to regional change processes, but they seem to play a supporting, not usually a creating, role. It is interesting that interviewees from the business sector especially rarely mentioned public actors, support organisations or their development projects without specifically being asked about them. Still, most saw their role as positive. A significant national regional centre development programme AKO (2001–2010) was not mentioned by the interviewees at all. It is an enabling factor that municipalities of the sub-region are having cooperation. Simultaneously, there is some competition between municipalities. In the case of the Jakobstad sub-region, informal institutions were constantly mentioned: socially shared rules and practices as well as culture were emphasised. The cultural division between the Finnish- and Swedish-speaking groups was both enabling and restraining, as it created strong bonds but also excluded the possibility of others. Entrepreneurialism, risk taking, self-organising and optimism are qualities that enable economic growth and change processes. Mentality is international, as the sub-region has been export-oriented since the 18th century, when it was concentrated on the building of ships for the crown of Sweden. The sub-region has also welcomed multiculturalism and immigrants, perhaps even more open-mindedly than has the Finnish-speaking population. Values are human-oriented: welfare and caring for everybody are appreciated over the maximisation of profit. The sub- region is one of the healthiest in Finland. Collectivism, like cooperation, as well as identifying common interests, regional identity, family and community are important. Temporal orientation is long term and over-generational. Many of these qualities restrain short-term produc- tivity but have been proven to create long-term resilience and economic growth.

7.8 Conclusions Economic development in the Jakobstad sub-region is characterised by continuity. It is difficult to identify distinct junctures or main phases. However, some kind of generalisations can be made. The basis for the sub-region’s core industries was created in the early 20th century. Pulp mills and sawmills comprised this core. Other industries were born based on regional strengths: food production, boat building, entrepreneurial small crafts and metals. Family- owned manufacturing SMEs have grown stronger along with increasing exports since the 1970s. The emphasis of employment has shifted from a couple of big employers to these family-owned SMEs. Some consumer product manufacturing industries have disappeared, but new jobs have also emerged. The industrial base has become more versatile in size and variety. In the 2000s, globalisation continued, with some companies ownership going abroad but others remaining in the sub-region. The food industry has also become significant. The forest industry has been divided into several companies and has created smaller companies around its core. The 2008 recession caused a brief economic decline, but recovery in the region was better than in the rest of Finland on average. The region continued to invest even in difficult times, and several infrastructure projects were conducted. These culminated in a positive outlier in the 2012–2015 period. Many structural preconditions do not favour the Jakobstad sub-region. Human capital is rather low due to the lack of higher education institutions. The sub-region is not highly specialised, nor does it possess high-tech manufacturing. Regardless, it has managed to compensate for these deficiencies and has even taken a positive approach to them. The lack of higher education has been handled by creating the best-ranked vocational school in Finland. The lack of high-tech manufacturing has been viewed as a stabilising factor, especially given Nokia’s decline, which propelled many other Finnish sub-regions into crisis. The lack of focused specialisation has been considered an advantage, as companies do not compete in the same markets but instead cooperate. The main drivers of change are not (radical) technological innovations but rather institutional learning on how to do business and foreign trade. In addition, industrial drivers have made a substantial impact: Some industries were no longer competitive, but new companies have emerged. These new companies have often imported ideas from abroad and developed them into successful businesses in high-quality niche fields. Still, it is difficult to identify obvious drivers behind these changes. Drivers in the regional development are not usually reactions to sudden events or emerging major innovations but rather continuous incremental developments in all fields. Usually, they have comprised proactive preparations. The active, entrepreneurial, international, networked and development-oriented mindset could be seen as a one kind of ‘driver’. The type of industrial path development varies by industry. The story of Jakobstad is not one story but many, which sometimes overlap. Many middle-sized manufacturing companies have been upgrading via niche development. The forest cluster has developed through related diversification, and spin-offs have resulted, e.g. metal, machinery and high-tech equip-

ment. The food sector has been climbing the value chain by upgrading its skills and production capabilities. This has also happened in the boat industry, but we can also identify renewal in the boat industry’s evolving business models. In the Jakobstad sub-region, the role of agency is definitely the key factor of success. If we see agency as one’s independent capability to act on one’s will, then agency in the Jakobstad sub-region is strong. They have often managed to conduct development actions by using networks and promoting regional interests. Self-organising is common. Regional actors share the idea that one must work for their own company/community/region to achieve something, not expect someone else to solve their problems. These tight regional and personal networks support the creation of common visions, the sharing of knowledge and the identification of partnerships. The same people can hold a number of positions in business and politics, which may lead to disqualification issues and conflicts of interest on the one hand, but to quicker and more effective decision making and project planning and completion on the other. International networks provide a source of new ideas and export markets. The Swedish-speaking identity tightens regional networks and opens them to other Nordic countries, but it also excludes many contacts in Finland. In this sense, the Jakobstad sub-region could be regarded as ‘a local club and an international hub’. To conclude, the sub-region has high social capital, which may explain part of its success. Middle-sized, growing, manufacturing and often family-owned companies are one of the key success factors. They constitute ‘hidden champions’ that comprise the core of economic competence in the sub-region. They are also deeply embedded and committed to the region. They do not pursue maximal short-term profits but long-term growth instead. They also provide stable jobs even in financial downturns. Contemporary international corporations own some of the biggest companies. Their decision making occurs elsewhere, outside the sub-region, thereby creating some level of risk. So far, most of them have remained in the region. One possible reason for the Jakobstad sub-region’s success is its combination of a few large, leading enterprises and the large variety of SMEs. All types of agency can be found in the sub-region: place-based leadership, institutional entrepreneurship and innovative entrepreneurship. However, these roles are often mixed and overlapping. The same actor can play different roles in different situations, and roles are not always obvious. Place-based leadership is shared in nature. Business networks are in its core, and public actors support their initiatives. The biggest companies especially and some of their key individuals particularly often play the role of place-based leaders or institutional entrepreneurs. Public actors have mobilising and coordinating roles (place-based leadership), but they are not often institutional entrepreneurs. On the other hand, municipalities have sometimes even made their own business initiatives and have assumed the role of innovative entrepreneurs. Companies in the sub-region are innovative, but their innovativeness can be characterised as mostly continuous incremental development of products and processes as well as the identification of appropriate niche markets. Mostly, these roles are balanced. Sometimes, there is a lack of coordination when multiple actors are working with the same issue. Innovative entrepreneurship might flourish even better if there were more qualified

labour and regional R&D partnerships available. In this light, the strengthening of institutional entrepreneurship in such a way that it would plant new ideas could also support innovative entrepreneurship. Currently, this lack of regional knowledge resources is compensated for by extra-regional knowledge sources. Causal linkages between regional development paths and agency are challenging to identify due to the incremental and cumulative nature of constant small events. It is apparent that agency is strong, and the development trajectory has been positive. The positive outlier period can be explained by the growth of employment in the food and construction sectors as well as in other business services, but the agency responsible for this growth is not unambig- uous. Food sector growth is the result of long-term development, a new CEO and a new strategy in the biggest food company, as well as spin-offs, marketing, new consumer products, etc. In addition, support from place-based leaders has also contributed. However, the impact of food companies on regional development is more significant than vice versa. The growth in construction employment is the sum of many infrastructure projects and investments. Behind these investments, a significant amount of promotional work was done by place-based leaders from the private and public sectors. Other business services have grown as the food and forest sectors are outsourcing their operations. The positive development trajectory and positive outlier are consequences of strong agency. The most powerful agency is located in regional business networks. As one interviewee stated, employment growth is not the effect of active (public) development actions, but the active development field is the result of positive growth (in companies). Nevertheless, it is not always easy to trace it back to single micro-level actions; it is, however, easier to implicate more general-level, informal, institutional environment characteristics, like the efficient use of networks or entrepreneurialism. Is the agency in the Jakobstad sub-region actual change agency or is it instead reproductive agency aimed at path continuation? There is evidence for a substantial amount of reproductive agency in maintaining and strengthening existing structures, and as such it can be considered valuable to some extent. Nevertheless, if we recognise incremental development as a form of change agency, then the Jakobstad sub-region has plenty of change agency. For example, the perceived opportunity spaces have increasingly transformed, and global and business models have become more networked due to mutual learning following the examples of pioneers. These processes have been gradual. The positive outlier may not have been caused by sudden changes in agency. Instead, already existing strong agency as revealed by the economic crisis could be the cause.

Appendix 2. Interviews

Interviews: Number of interviews: 17 from sub-region/region + 1 (concerning all regions) Date range of interviews: 4.1.2019–11.3.2019 Average duration of interviews: 85 minustes Firm: 6 Government/municipality: 2 Universities/HEI (+ vocational school): 2 Support organisations: 4 Other: 3 (local media)

8 SALO SUB-REGION Sami Sopanen, Jari Kolehmainen & Heli Kurikka

8.1 Regional characteristics

Location and connections The Salo sub-region is located in the eastern part of southwest Finland, near Uusimaa and Kanta-Häme. Sub-regions in Finland are in the LAU1 category, which is based on labour markets and cooperative relationships between municipalities. The Salo sub-region consists of two municipalities (Figure 20): the cities of Salo (population 51,833 in 2019) and Somero (population 8,711 in 2019). Salo is the local centre of the sub-region, and its distance from Turku, the capital city of southwest Finland, is only 50 km. Helsinki, the national capital, is also nearby (115 km) (Salo, 2020). One of Finland’s main roads, Highway 1, and the densely operated railway between Turku and Helsinki go through the Salo sub-region. By train, the travel time from Salo to Helsinki is about 1 hour and 20 minutes; to Turku, the travel time is about 40 minutes. Therefore, the sub-region is relatively well connected to the two most important cities in Finland.

Figure 20. Map of Salo sub-region (Map information, Liiteri, 2020).

Population dynamics Population growth in the Salo sub-region can be divided into two phases. Between 1991 and 2010, the region’s population grew quickly, from 59,997 to 64,565 inhabitants (Figure 21). Population growth in the Salo sub-region was strongly associated with the rise of the telecommunications company Nokia, which attracted people from all over Finland. After 2010, however, the region’s population began to dwindle, which was at first caused by fewer

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jobs at Nokia (later Microsoft) and in the surrounding local busines’s cluster. Between 2010 and 2015, the population decreased from 64,565 inhabitants to 62,983 inhabitants. By 2019, the population had declined further, to 60,544 inhabitants (StatFin, 2020). Working-age people in particular – for example, Nokia engineers – moved out of the area.

70000 1,12

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30000 Population index Population 1,00 20000 0,98 10000 0,96

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Figure 21. Population in the Salo sub-region 1991-2015, absolute and indexed (StatFin, 2018)

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Figure 22. Population by age groups in the Salo sub-region 1991-2017 (StatFin, 2018)

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After 2015, population loss continued, but it was not as bad as it could have been, because some locals can commute from Salo sub-region to other cities, like Turku and Helsinki, and thus have little reason to move. Today, the sub-region’s population losses are mainly attributable to the aging population and to the relocation of younger people, who are moving to other cities to study and work. That said, some positive signals of renewed population growth have recently emerged. In March 2020, for instance, Salo experienced positive population development (+67) for the first time since the decreasing trend began (StatFin 2020).

Industrial mix and education For decades, electronic device manufacturing has been an important industry in Salo. The 1994–2011 period was especially pronounced in this regard, with the ‘manufacturing of radio, television and communication equipment and apparatus’ dominating local industrial life. For example, in 2000, the electronics industry employed 6,438 people in the Salo region. After 2008, however, jobs in the industry decreased dramatically, from 5,534 to only 991 in 2015 (Figure 23). More than half of those employed in the Nokia cluster worked in production, which required a low educational level, but there were also a substantial number of engineers employed in R&D activities. Along with electronics manufacturing, Salo sub-region had – and still has – a versatile economic structure. Although few companies in the Salo sub-region employ more than 50 people, it is home to numerous SMEs. Companies in the region are highly specialised and typically dedicated to the production of one specific product. After 2000, the number of jobs in the secondary sector started to decrease, and yet the region still provides more jobs in the secondary sector than the Finnish average. At the same time, the number of jobs in the tertiary sector started to increase, such that most employment in contemporary Salo is in the tertiary sector. Still, the Salo region has fewer jobs in the tertiary sector than the national average (Figure 25). Although agriculture continues to employ many people in the Salo region, the availability of jobs in this sector is decreasing, a common trend in Finland. In 1990, agriculture, hunting and related service activities employed 3,747 people in the region; but by 2015, only 1,272 people worked in these areas. As such, in 2015, agriculture was the 5th biggest line of business in the Salo sub-region. Hence, the region has more jobs in the primary sector than the Finnish average.

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Manufacture of radio, television and communication equipment and apparatus

7000 Health and social work

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Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles; repair of personal and household goods Construction 6000

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Figure 23. The most employing industries in the Salo sub-region (Data from Statistics Fin- land, 2018).

The educational level in the Salo sub-region is lower than the Finnish average (Figure 24). Although the region does not have its own higher education institutions, Turku University of Applied Sciences (TUAS) has coordinated education in nursing and business administration in the area. Unfortunately, funding cuts from the Ministry of Education and Culture and the unpopularity of some educational fields have caused TUAS to scale back its educational outreach in Salo. In the early 2010s, for instance, TUAS ended its design and information technology education programmes in the region. However, local companies and TUAS are continuing to collaborate on research and development and training projects. The University of Turku also administered master’s degree programmes in the fields of software technology, productization of electronics and productization of software in Salo, but these programmes, too, have ended. Salo Region Vocational College therefore represents an important educational institution in the region, one which is responsible for educating the workforce for employment in local companies in the Salo region.

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0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

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Figure 24. Share of tertiary education in the Salo sub-region (%) (age group 25+) (StatFin, 2019)

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Primary sector, Salo region, % Secondary sector Salo region, % Tertiary sector Salo region, % Primary sector, Finland, % Secondary sector, Finland, % Tertiary sector, Finland, %

Figure 25. Sectoral composition in the Salo sub-region (StatFin, 2019)

8.2 Variables of the structural model The Salo region was a positive outlier in both 1996–2001 and 2004–2008 (Figure 26). This means that over these periods, the employment rate grew better than the model predicted. However, this growth rate was heavily based on employment at Nokia and in the surrounding Nokia cluster. Unsurprisingly, then, between 2009 and 2015, the Salo region was a negative

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outlier, as actual job losses were worse than the model predicted. This was mainly attributable to the collapse of the Nokia (later Microsoft) cluster and to the closure of the mobile phone factory in Salo. In 2015, Microsoft announced that the company would close its product development unit in Salo, which accelerated job losses in the Salo region after the observation time period.

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Figure 26. Employment growth and model prediction residuals in the Salo sub-region (data for calculations from Statistics Finland, 2018).

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Figure 27. Number of employed and employment indexes in the Salo sub-region (1991=100) (data from StatFin, 2020 and Statistics Finland, 2018).

Variables that were used in the employment regression model are presented in Figure 28. The variables were indexed in such a way that the year 1995=100 and the index indicate relative changes of each variable. In Table 5, these variables are ranked in relation to Finland’s other 68 continental sub-regions.

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Employment (nace1-74)

180 Public employment

160 Household median income

140 Size of establishments

120 Higher education over 25 yrs.

100 Population

80 High tech employment

60 Employment in knowledge intensive services 40 Employment in manufacturing 20 Diversity 0 Specialisation 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Figure 28. The relative change in the variables behind the employment model in the Salo sub-region (Data for calculations from StatFin, 2018 and Statistics Finland, 2018).

Table 5. Variables behind the employment model and their relative position among other sub-regions. (Data for calculations from StatFin, 2018 and Statistics Finland, 2018).

Variable (N=68) 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Public employment % public employment 19.50% 20.11% 20.81% 23.44% 26.62%

Rank (sub-regions) 67 67 67 63 55 Human capital % of tertiary degree +25 18.41% 21.64% 23.98% 25.90% 27.14%

Rank (sub-regions) 30 27 26 26 29 High-tech manufacturing % of employment 28.61% 29.40% 25.25% 21.10% 11.02%

Rank (sub-regions) 1 1 1 1 5 Knowledge-intensive busi- % employment 22.52% 23.19% 28.05% 31.87% 36.02% ness services (KIBS) Rank (sub-regions) 66 67 63 54 42 Manufacturing % employment 39.43% 41.23% 36.09% 29.54% 19.73%

Rank (sub-regions) 2 2 3 6 17 Establishment average size Number of people 557 592 549 439 306

Rank (sub-regions) 10 5 7 22 43 Population density Pop / km2 2,291 2,351 2,384 2,432 2,373

Rank (sub-regions) 23 23 21 21 21 Household median income euro 15,691 17,967 20,554 21,971 21,342 per person Rank (sub-regions) 22 5 10 20 38 Diversity 1/HHindex) 1,393 1,121 1,278 1,314 1,443

Rank (sub-regions) 39 63 57 49 15 Specialisation Theil 0,550 0,528 0,414 0,381 0,169

Rank (sub-regions) 3 4 9 11 48

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Between 1995 and 2010, the share of public employment in the Salo sub-region was among the lowest in all of continental Finland. In 2015, this variable increased, and yet public employment in the region remains quite low. The share of highly educated people (human capital) in the region is about average, nationally speaking. This variable has also increased, but not as quickly as in other regions in Finland. Between 1995 and 2010, the Salo region was first in the high-tech manufacturing field in Finland, and the share of people working in the manufacturing was in general quite high. By 2015, however, the share of jobs in high-tech manufacturing had decreased dramatically, which was primarily attributable to downsizing and related issues at Nokia/Microsoft and among its subcontractors. Still, the variable remained the fifth highest. This development also corresponded to a precipitous drop in income levels, from being among the highest in 2000 to being ranked 48th by 2015. Job diversity and specialisation followed the same pattern, as specialisation was quite high and diversity quite low from the mid-1990s to the 2000s, after which they trended towards the exact opposite positions by 2015. The knowledge-intensive business services (KIBS) variable was initially very low in the Salo region. Between 1995 and 2005, KIBS was among the lowest in all of continental Finland. After 2005, however, KIBS began growing rapidly, indicating that an increasing number of jobs were being established in the KIBS sector after corresponding losses in the manufacturing sector. The establishment size of companies in the Salo region has greatly decreased from 1995 to 2015. In 2000, this variable was the fifth highest in Fin- land; but by 2015, it had decreased substantially, to the 43rd highest.

Regional development trajectories We traced the development trajectories of Salo sub-region back to the 1920s when the industrial basis of the region was created (Figure 29). Namely, the electronics manufacturing has lengthy roots in the region. This phase was followed by the golden era of the mobile phone business from 1990s onwards. It is an important chapter in the Finnish industrial history, as is the following phase, the epic fall of the mobile phone business. This long period revolving around mobile technologies and international business is followed by the era of re- orientation. Salo sub-region is at the moment finding and creating new pathways for the future. In constructing these development trajectories of the Salo sub-region, we utilised interviews as well as the following sources: Nokia Oyj:n historia (2001), Kurikka et al. (2018) and Lavonen (2005).

Figure 29. Main development phases of the Salo region

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Phase 1 - Creation of the industrial basis, 1920–1989 Southwest Finland is in many respects the oldest part of Finland and has a strong agricultural history. The region once had also a thriving food industry – for example, the Salo sugar mill, which was established in 1918. The region also has a tradition of metal manufacturing, e.g. Antti-Teollisuus Ltd., whose predecessor was established in the 1950s to manufacture agricultural machinery, among other equipment. In addition, the textile industry played an important role in the industrial foundation of the Salo sub-region. Women especially were employed in textile production from the 1960s onwards, consequently creating a regional culture of mass production. This culture would come to characterise the region later on, when the electronics industry emerged. The key textile firms of the region were Finn-Flare Ltd. (1960–1990) and Kudeneule Ltd. (1963– 1977). Finn-Flare Ltd. had its roots in Salo. Its golden age was in the 1970s and early 1980s, when it exported the majority of its products to both the USSR and western European countries. Finn-Flare Ltd. was the largest employer in Salo until the second half of the 1980s, when production was offshored to cheaper countries. Kudeneule Ltd. did not originate in the Salo sub-region, but it did run a large factory there. It was a well-known company (e.g. cotton underwear, ‘Hyvon’ brand) and has as such left a significant impression in local memory. Local residents often talked about ‘Salora boys and Hyvon girls’ to refer to these two big employers, Salora being the cradle of the local electronics industry. Namely, the electronics industry has characterised the Salo region for some time, especially between 1994 and 2012, when it dominated the local economy. The roots of the industry, however, date back much further, to the 1920s, when the electronics company Salora was first established. The company originally went by a different name, but it manufactured radios under the Salora brand, which were sufficiently popular that the company eventually renamed itself Salora, in 1945. The name is derived from a combination of ‘Salo’ and ‘radio’, reflecting the company’s strong local roots. During the following decades, Salora evolved from a radio manufacturer to a conglomerate with several product lines. It began manufacturing televisions (1956), radiotelephones (1960), hi-fi devices (1967) and PC displays (1981) (related diversification). As a result of such diversification, Salora grew significantly, and its Salo location was expanded several times. In addition, Salora was involved in the establishment of a component supplier, Salcomp Ltd. and a picture tube factory, Valco Ltd.. The latter was ultimately both an economic and political disaster, as the Finnish state was also involved in the venture. Nevertheless, Salora continued to dominate the domestic market, especially in the television category, and continued exporting its products to various countries until it suffered major business problems at the end of 1970 (e.g. the Valco case and other business irregularities). From a future-oriented point of view, radiotelephone manufacturing was an important business branch, as it represented one of the cornerstones of the upcoming mobile phone business. Know-how with regard to radio technologies had been steadily developing in the region for decades and was partly based on the activities of radio hobbyists. Salora developed and manufactured the first radiotelephones already in 1960s, mainly for public authorities.

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In the early 1970s, the first car radiotelephones (ARP) and portable radiotelephones applying the same technology were introduced, and the new path creation took its first steps. These devices used radiotelephone technology, but they were also capable of connecting with regular landline phone systems, making them the first generation of mobile phones. Although radiotelephone technology was ultimately not so profitable business, it was significant in another respect – namely, radiotelephones were the reason Nokia came to Salo. As one interviewee put it: ‘Nokia did not bring phones to Salo, but phones brought Nokia to Salo’. This is a particularly notable observation, as the histories of Nokia and Salo are intricately connected. The Nokia corporation’s Salo unit was established in the late 1970s, at first in the form of a collaboration and later as a joint venture, Mobira Ltd. (later Nokia-Mobira), whose man- aging director, Jorma Nieminen, was a local legend and technology pioneer. When Mobira Ltd. was established, it was debated whether the headquarters of the mobile phone company should be located in Salo or in Oulu, where Nokia conducted its wireless communication activities. Nieminen played a key role in designating Salo as Mobira’s base of operations, as he was originally from Salo. Consequently, in the coming years, many talented radio technology engineers moved from Oulu to Salo, as the mobile phone business was growing in Salo. From 1980 onwards, Salora’s role decreased as Nokia grew in prominence. Ultimately, after many kinds of new business operations and ownership arrangements, mobile telephone activities became the central focus of Nokia Mobile Phones, even though its headquarters was located in Espoo. In 1989, the story of Salora Ltd. ended, as its operations completely merged with those of the Nokia corporation. The development paths of the textile industry and the electronics industry were intertwined, despite being totally different industries. Their common denominators were mass production and ‘assembly line work’. Both industries, however, were in different development phases at the time: While the textile industry was beginning to decline, the electronics industry was starting to expand. Hence, the workforce in Salo transitioned from the dimin- ishing textile industry to the growing electronics industry (assembly jobs) during the 1970s and 1980s. It is notable that the electronics industry in Salo comprised both high-technology R&D jobs and manual assembly line jobs. As described above, all of Salora’s activities eventually merged with those of the Nokia corporation in the late 1980s. Even before, the radiotelephone and mobile phone business had already been assigned to a separate company (Mobira Ltd., later Nokia-Mobira), which Nokia had bought in 1982. This was a good decision, as traditional Finnish consumer electronics (e.g. radios, television sets and stereo) had been gradually losing their competitiveness from the 1970s onwards due to many internal and external reasons, e.g. the rise of Asian manufacturers. In this climate, mobile communication became a lucrative line of business, indicating related diversification of industrial development. It can be stated that the era of mobile communication began in the early 1980s. In this respect, a new innovation, the Nordic Mo- bile Telephone (NMT), was an important factor, because it was the world’s first multinational cellular network. It began operations in 1981 in Sweden and Norway, and in 1982 in Finland and Denmark. Mobira launched its first NMT phone, Mobira Senator, in the same year. Soon

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thereafter, Mobira developed relatively rapidly, and new products were introduced, such as Mobira Talkman and Mobira Cityman, the latter being the first handheld cell phone. These innovations signified the imminent onset of the mobile revolution.

Phase 2 - The golden era of mobile phone business, 1990–2008 At the juncture of the 1980s and 1990s, the Nokia Corporation was at a crossroads. It had expanded greatly during the 1980s through acquisitions, and it had become a conglomerate with several branches. However, consumer electronics had become central to the company. Partly due to its ambitious expansion, Nokia encountered financial problems in the late 1980s, which it mitigated by streamlining its operations and divesting several businesses, such as paper, footwear and tyres. It did so even though consumer electronics, and especially television manufacturing, was the main source of its financial problems. At the time, Nokia as a whole was in a chaotic state, especially after the sudden death of its charismatic CEO, Kari Kairamo, in 1988. Finally, in 1992, Jorma Ollila was chosen to be the new CEO. Ollila had been the head of the mobile phone business and had worked for several years at the Salo site. Ollila continued to redevelop Nokia from a multi-branched conglomerate to a more focused telecom company. This was the right choice, as the whole telecom sector started to grow astronomically. All of these corporate-level changes also affected Salo, as it became one of the key sites of the mobile phone business. Salo’s position as a key site was understandable, but by no means self-evident. In this respect, the longstanding roots in and extensive know-how of radio technology in Salo played a large role in its designation as a key site. Some fortuitous coincidences also occurred that reinforced this decision. For example, in the mid-1980s, Nokia-Mobira needed larger premises for its mobile phone manufacturing sector. Nokia ob- tained these premises very conveniently, as a very well-known businessman, who had recently started a real estate project, redirected this project to accommodate Nokia-Mobira’s needs. This strengthened Nokia-Mobira’s presence in Salo. Similarly, in 1991, Nokia ended its mobile phone manufacturing operations in Äänekoski and moved them to Salo instead. Nearly at the same time, television production was ending in Salo, ceasing in 1992 and moving to Turku. Nokia’s PC display production in Salo lasted longer, ending in 2000. All in all, Nokia’s site in Salo emerged as the key hub of its mobile phone business. A key factor in Nokia’s rise was the development of Pan-European digital phone technology (GSM). Nokia was intimately involved in the development of this technological standard, which was different from the analogical NMT system despite sharing some principles and features, which made it easier for Nokia to adopt. In any case, it provided Nokia with new growth opportunities, as the company was at the time still very much involved in digital radio technology. Nokia thus emerged as the winner in this telecom revolution. After 1995, Nokia and its surrounding business cluster expanded rapidly, e.g. Aspocomp, Salcomp and Elcoteq produced components like plastic and electronic parts. Nokia also rapidly expanded spatially, but the Salo site remained its crucial nexus in terms of both R&D and manufacturing. In the early days of digital mobile telecommunication, it was crucial that R&D and manufacturing were inextricably intertwined. So-called tacit knowledge played a

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great role in the company’s R&D and innovation processes, which were locally rooted. The growth of Nokia’s operations in Salo in the 1990s exemplified this principle. Still, as part of its expansion, Nokia established several other R&D and production sites in both Finland and abroad, although Salo retained its privileged status as the most important site: Nokia’s core. By the end of the 1990s, Nokia was the world’s largest mobile phone manufacturer. For the industrial development of Salo, this meant climbing the global production chain and renewal based on new technologies. Circumstances, however, changed in the first decade of the new millennium. In the 1990s, the other R&D sites in Finland (Tampere, Oulu) and abroad were focused mainly on aug- menting the R&D conducted in Salo or engaging in other special projects. But due to Nokia’s exponentially rapid growth, these other sites gained in importance, and R&D processes became more global. This meant two things: the sense of ownership over certain R&D issues became diluted, and the whole corporate organisation became more complex and more difficult to steer. At the same time, the whole value chain of mobile phone production disinte- grated, resulting in a new global organisation. R&D and manufacturing diverged for many reasons, but especially due to the low production costs in China and other countries in Asia. R&D was strengthened in those cities in which the best opportunities for growth (e.g. supply of skilled people, university collaboration opportunities) were evident. In addition, changes occurred in relation to broader technological changes in the products and the whole industry: hardware and mobile software became separate, consequently alter- ing also the geographical configurations of Nokia’s mobile phone business. Due to all these changes, Salo’s relative position within Nokia weakened, despite increasing R&D and production volume in the early 2000s. Many employees felt that things were not the same as they were in the mid-1990s. For one, the Nokia community became looser and less progres- sive than it had originally been. According to some interviewees, this was likely inevitable, as Nokia had grown massively in size and had become the global leader in the industry. Simply put, Nokia became too big for Salo. Despite a few hiccups, Nokia remained the leading mobile company up until 2008, when a series of problems that had been accumulating for some time finally caught up to the company. In addition to Nokia, another mobile phone company was located in Salo, Benefon. This company was established in 1988 on the threshold of the golden era of mobile phone business. Benefon was founded by the abovementioned Jorma Nieminen, who had left Mobira due to business decision disagreements. Benefon was an innovative company (e.g. in terms of design), but it was too small for the growing market. For example, Benefon was very advanced in terms of navigation and web browsing even before these features had become widely implemented or even understood in the mobile phone business. However, Benefon struggled to shift from the analogical NMT technology to the digital GSM technology in the early 1990s, and therefore the company did not evolve into a large mobile phone manufacturer. In 2007, the company changed its name to GeoSentric, focusing its operations on navigation technologies. GeoSentric continued to struggle financially, however, for a long time before finally going bankrupt in 2014. Interestingly enough, the legacy of Benefon lives

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on in Salo, as its special mobile device business continues under the auspices of Twig Com Ltd., which is owned by Jukka Nieminen, son of Jorma Nieminen. This company manufac- tures highly specialised safety phones and other safety gadgets. Some traditional industries, like food and textiles, faced path extinction. Finn-Flare Ltd. bankrupted in the early 1990s when the USSR collapsed and its bilateral trade relationship with the union consequently ended. This also led to a deep recession in Finland as a whole. The food industry also disappeared, despite the strong agricultural heritage of the Salo sub- region. For example, the Salo sugar mill was closed in 2006. On the other hand, other firms related to agriculture and the food industry survived. Many SMEs in the metal industry continue to manufacture products linked to agriculture. For example, Antti-Teollisuus Ltd. has produced different grain handling and processing machines and systems (e.g. dryers, heaters, conveyors and elevators) for decades and has experienced almost uninterrupted and steady growth. It is also a good example of the typical evolution of SMEs, as it has diversified its product and service range to pursue growth and stability, such as by expanding to the marine industry (cruiser doors).

Phase 3 - The epic fall of the mobile phone business, 2009–2017 There were also negative event chains in the Salo region related to the mobile phone cluster, i.e. the so-called ‘Nokia cluster’. As described above, due to industry-wide changes, Nokia’s organisation became global and the predominance of the Salo site was weakened. This also had consequences for the ‘Nokia cluster’ and for Nokia’s subcontractors, which started to collapse or move away from the Salo region one by one, resulting in factory closures and layoffs. This trend started in 2007 and within a fairly short period of time, Salo lost a great number of jobs. Nokia was still performing well, but dark clouds were on the horizon. Nokia’s big problem in the late 2000s was the fact that its competitiveness was deteriorating. It was experiencing problems launching new mobile phone models that could compete against newcomers like Apple and Samsung. Nokia had become slow and rigid despite continuous attempts to maintain organisational responsiveness and agility. This was not enough, however, as the large company needed to implement a large number of internal formal rules as well as a wide array of processes and procedures. Its leadership was no longer based on ‘human touch’, as one key informant put it. At the same time, the first iPhone – a game changer – was introduced in 2007. From Nokia’s point of view, the company was experiencing problems not only related to the launch of new mobile phone models but also due to more fundamental technological limitations. Nokia was stuck with the outdated Sym- bian platform, and it had great problems attempting to create a new software platform (MeeGo). Simultaneously, the mobile phone industry was about to become a battleground for a variety of different platforms and ecosystems, not just phone manufacturers. These problems became apparent in 2009, when Nokia started to reduce its workforce by offering ‘voluntary resignation packages’. This was seen within the company as the first sign of deep troubles facing the mobile business. Many of its more senior and knowledgeable staff realised the extent of these problems, and the outflow of talent accelerated. Nokia also laid off a few hundred staff members over the next two years. All of these changes also

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affected the Salo site. It is important to note that CEO Jorma Ollila stepped down from his position in 2005 but was nominated as the chairman of the board of Nokia until 2012. His successor, Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo, did not have the same kind of special relationship with the Salo site as Jorma Ollila had. This might have also affected subsequent decisions concerning the Salo site. In retrospect, Nokia made huge strategic and technological mistakes. First, it developed the Linux-based MeeGo operating system together with Intel. Second, and far more fatefully, in 2011, Nokia’s new CEO Stephen Elop began implementing strategic changes, including the integration of a new technological platform, the Microsoft Windows Phone, to compete with Apple and Android, abandoning other technologies. This platform shift was a turning point for Nokia, as the new Windows phones flopped worldwide, as did its whole mobile ecosystem. Over the next four years, Nokia and Nokia Siemens Networks ran several redundancy rounds worldwide, outsourcing people to other companies. Regarding Salo, the changes were dramatic: In early 2012, Nokia announced that the company would lay off 1,000 workers in Salo and, by June 2012, it was decided that the entire mobile phone factory (850 jobs) in Salo would be closed. At that point in time, Nokia’s R&D activities remained in Salo. Finally, in 2014, after a three-year struggle, Nokia announced the sale of its mobile business to Microsoft. In 2015, Microsoft announced that it was shutting down the Salo site completely. This decision represented the end of the large-scale mobile phone business in Salo, a full-scale path deterioration. It is self-evident that the Salo sub-region had been highly dependent on Nokia for more than two decades. In a similar vein, the problems faced by Nokia and the whole ‘Nokia cluster’ caused severe problems for the Salo sub-region as well. The region became suscep- tible to an abrupt structural change (ÄRM) programme in late 2009 when the problems faced by Nokia and its subcontractors became evident. The ÄRM programme was designed to assist regions in which the business structure changes drastically, and the total loss of jobs is immense. The programme provides such regions with (financial) support for renewal. The execution of this programme ended in Salo in 2017 reflecting the length of the struggling.

Phase 4 - The era of re-orientation, 2018-> After the collapse of Nokia / Microsoft and its related cluster, it became self-evident that the economic future of the Salo region could no longer depend solely on a single large company or even one sector. The path of large-scale mobile phone business had been exhausted. However, despite the misfortunes experienced by Salo, there were still material and human resources that could serve as the basis for a new economic future. Nokia has contributed to the local economy in numerous ways; it has ‘educated’ people in good technological and manufacturing skills and provided them with a deep understanding of international business. Many of those people who are currently working in other firms in the region utilise such skill sets. As one interviewee put it, ‘in this region, almost every cowshed has been developed by using lean methodology’. Arguably, the former employees of Nokia and other mobile phone- related companies have contributed to the development of other companies.

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It was also clear that the existing companies were able to absorb only a small portion of former mobile phone professionals. Therefore, making good use of all the material and human resources of the Salo region calls for a different, more versatile and entrepreneurial approach and also for bolder initiatives. After the collapse of Nokia, some unlucky FDI projects (e.g. Hyperloop and Turin Robotics) have been launched while the region pursued a new direction. This is only natural, as there was great pressure to create new economic activities. One of the most important new beginnings for the Salo region has been the establishment of the Salo IoT Campus (IoT = internet of things). The campus is a small science park located in the old Nokia / Microsoft n facilities. These premises were bought by a consortium led by the City of Salo in 2017. In the beginning, it was not easy, but the IoT Campus is currently playing host to a variety of companies ranging from small, newly established companies to more established companies (e.g. Valmet Automotive, Huawei). The establishment of the IoT Campus is analysed in more in detail in the next chapter.

8.3 Regional development trajectories In Table 6, we summarise the types of industrial path development observed in the Salo sub- region. The most dominant trend was related to the development of the electronics industry, which later developed into the mobile phone business. This case effectively demonstrates the path-dependent nature of industrial development. It is quite remarkable how the initial experiments of radio technology enthusiasts in the 1920s laid the foundation for the birth of the once-largest mobile phone manufacturer. Naturally, there were different phases, but their origins can be recognised. Similarly, the epic fall of Nokia’s mobile phone business demonstrates the power of technological changes and business innovations, not just for companies but also for places, cities and regions. Currently, the Salo region is trying to find and develop a new development path that could carry its economy prosperously into the future.

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Table 6. Types of new industrial path development in the Salo sub-region

Types Mechanisms Observed in Salo sub-region

Upgrading I – Climbing GPN Major change of a regional industrial path related to enhancement of position Phase 1. ICT industry. within global production networks; moving up the value chain based on upgrading skills and production capabilities Phase 3. Opposite development in the mobile phone business: Salo lost its position II – Renewal Major change of an industrial path in a new direction based on new technolo- Phase 2. From consumer gies or organisational innovations, or new business models electronics (e.g. televisions) to mobile phone business

III – Niche development Development of a leading position in a market niche

Diversification I – Related Diversification into a new related industry for the region, building on compe- Phase 1. Electronics indus- tencies and knowledge of existing industries try new products Phase 4. ICT industry based on previous mobile phone business

II – Unrelated Diversification into a new industry based on unrelated knowledge combinations

Emergence

I – Importation Setting up an established industry that is new to the region (e.g. through non- Phase 4. Some companies in local firms) and unrelated to existing industries in the region new industries located to the region II – New creation Emergence and growth of entirely new industries based on radically new tech- Phase 1. Radio technology nologies and scientific discoveries or as an outcome of search processes for and electronics new business models, user-driven innovation and social innovation

(Adapted from Grillitsch, M., & Asheim, B. (2018). Place-based innovation policy for industrial diversification in regions. European Planning Studies, 26(8), 1638–1662).

8.4 Change agency

Events underpinning change agency The Salo region has faced many interesting events during its recent history, each of which is listed in Attachment 1. We have chosen to study four events in order to better understand the nature of agency in the region. The chosen events describe the characteristics of regional agency and how they have contributed to the regional growth paths. The two positive outlier periods, 1996–2001 and 2004–2008, were mainly caused by the growth of Nokia and the ‘Nokia cluster’ in Salo. The negative outlier period between 2009 and 2015 was mainly caused by the collapse of the ‘Nokia cluster’ and Nokia itself (later Microsoft). Here, we focus on events related to the negative outlier period (three events) and one event after the negative outlier period because these occasions were well covered by the interviewees. Overall, 12 events were collected and analysed. We refer to different types of agency according to the ‘trinity of change agency’ model.

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The collapse of Nokia’s subcontracting cluster In Salo, Nokia and its subcontractors created an ICT cluster, which, in 2007, employed around 10,000 people in the Salo region. Before the big municipal merger in 2009, the old city of Salo had around 24,000 inhabitants; after the merger of 10 municipalities, Salo had over 54,000 inhabitants. Compared to the city’s size, the Nokia cluster was an enormous job provider and corporate taxpayer. The success of Nokia and the ‘Nokia cluster’ also made the city of Salo quite self-sufficient such that the city did not need much in the way of public subsidies. Also, the relationship to regional-level cooperation was quite distant. In the 2000s, Nokia started to change its business plan. The company began to construct new sites – for example, in Hungary and China – and create subcontracting networks in cheaper-cost countries. This also brought their operations closer to their main markets. One by one, Nokia’s subcontractors started to collapse or move away from the Salo region. For example, Nypro CMS closed its factory (-146 jobs) in 2006; Aspocomp closed its printed circuit board factory (-237 jobs) in 2007; and Elcoteq closed its unit (-36 jobs) in 2008. Nokia also used fewer temporary agency workers and, in 2009, the company started initiating temporary layoffs in Salo. Within just a couple of years, Salo had lost around 2,000 jobs, mostly lower-education manufacturing jobs. Because the losses were so gradual, the city drifted into the crisis almost unnoticed. In the summer of 2009, the city deputies realised that the city was in crisis. The new mayor of Salo began to consider whether the city should be designated ‘an abrupt structural change’ (ÄRM) area even if doing so would have negative effects on the city’s image. He also initiated discussions with the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Em- ployment (TEM), with which he had created good networks via his previous jobs. In late 2009, the Salo region was indeed designated an ÄRM area. Consequently, TEM could channel state funding for different development projects, investments and training programmes for newly unemployed workers in the region. The role of the city of Salo has slowly begun to change. The city had been seen as the provider of basic services and a sufficient living environment. New and more active business development policies and networking were required to find new jobs and develop local economic life. The mayor of Salo organised a planning group, which started to create a rescue strategy for the city. The group consisted of deputies from the city of Salo, the city of Som- ero, Yrityssalo (the city’s development company), Salo Region Vocational School, TE-Of- fice, ELY-Center, the Regional Council of Southwest Finland, the Chamber of Commerce and a local entrepreneur organisation. Each actor had its own role. For example, the city of Salo informed the TEM about what kinds of actions needed to be done in Salo; Yrityssalo Ltd. informed local companies that they had opportunities to receive subsidies for new investments; and Salo Regional Vocational School together with the TE-Office organised education for unemployed people. ELY-Center and the Regional Council of Southwest Finland allocated state money for different actions. The mayor of Salo was an active actor within the planning group and made sure that the appropriate actions were being taken and were pro- ceeding properly. The CEO of Yrityssalo Ltd. took care of practical details of actions.

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The structural change in Salo had begun. The new mayor of Salo instantly took an active leadership role in the situation and, together with the ÄRM planning group, acted as place leaders by bringing together people and resources. The city of Salo took its first steps towards becoming a more active actor in the search for new growth opportunities for the region. The Yrityssalo development agency can also be identified as a place leader, one which contacted the region’s companies, inquired about the region’s needs and promoted opportunities to receive public subsidies for new investments. However, the institutional entrepreneurship that would have questioned whether Nokia’s path would continue in Salo indefinitely was still missing.

The closure of Nokia’s mobile phone factory In the 2000s, Nokia continuously modified its organisational structures and its product development projects consequently became global. Nokia started to construct new factories closer to the company’s main markets. The mobile phone factory in Salo manufactured phones for European markets. These changes started to erode Salo’s position within Nokia. Nokia’s first layoffs in 2009 were the initial signals to the city of Salo that the company was in trouble. Redundancies continued, and in 2011 Nokia announced in the company’s stock exchange release that the company was rethinking its role in some of its factories. Nokia’s market share in mobile phones was shrinking, and Apple and Android ecosystems were growing. Therefore, in 2011, Nokia decided to start producing Windows phones with Microsoft. In Nokia’s top management, there were no longer people who had personal ties to Salo, which also weakened Salo’s position. Some people in the city hall and in the development company read the signals and began to prepare different scenarios concerning Nokia’s upcoming actions and possible future layoffs. They also started conversations with Nokia, but the company had strict rules about how much information it could disclose. The city deputies and the development company informed the TEM that Nokia’s possible layoffs would be big. The TEM responded by guaranteeing that they were ready to channel state funding for different development projects in the Salo sub-region. The city and the development company outlined a plan to cope with the upcoming situation. The Nokia Corporation presumably provided the process with some information, but, as a listed company, its opportunities to communicate about its internal prospects were quite limited. All in all, these preparations were made quietly in the background:

‘We can quietly prepare here, when we see that this can happen. We may hit the iceberg. We can begin to build something, but carefully. We can’t do it publicly because of what may en- sue. People stop shopping, the supermarket enlargement will not happen. Nobody has the courage to do anything if we say that now we have the best information about this. We cannot do that. Then we would cause the disaster by ourselves’.

In February 2012, Nokia announced that the company would lay off 1,000 workers in Salo, and in June 2012, it closed the entire mobile phone factory (-850 jobs) in the city. These layoffs applied mostly to the production workers, whereas product development continued. After the closure of the mobile phone factory, Nokia still employed around 1,200 product

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development and support workers in Salo. Local responses to the layoffs were quick. Within just two weeks after Nokia’s layoffs in February, the city’s development company and the employment office established a helpdesk on Nokia’s premises for laid-off workers. To- gether with private organisers, the city’s development company arranged training programmes for the newly unemployed. The development company also launched different projects that supported and encouraged local companies to make new investments. In addition, Nokia had a corporate responsibility programme, Bridge, which supported the company’s unemployed workers to receive education or become entrepreneurs. The city of Salo system- atically built relationships abroad with nations like China and Vietnam and attempted to attract new companies. The city also hired a sales director whose task was to look for new companies worldwide to attract to the Salo region. The idea of hiring a sales director came from the local Chamber of Commerce. These efforts did result in some companies relocating to Salo. In 2012, a telemarketing company, Talking People Finland, established a unit in the city; and in 2014, Nordea Bank established a call service unit and Orion Oyj established a medicine packaging and logistics center in Salo as well. The city also found new Chinese owners for Cencorp’s electric automation business. Salo was in the middle of one of the most radical structural changes in Finnish industrial history. The city of Salo and the development company continued to grow in their role as place leaders as the old industrial path was deteriorating. They collected and coordinated resources and took actions to compensate for losses. Nonetheless, outmigration and unemployment strengthened. It was simply impossible to replace the number of jobs that had been lost in a small town once dominated by a giant company for two decades. Previously, the public sector had adopted a role as a service provider to its inhabitants, but that was no longer enough. The city officials began to realise that they needed to take an even more proactive role in business development.

The closure of Microsoft’s product development unit in 2015 In September 2013, Microsoft bought the mobile phone business from Nokia. Thus, the era of Nokia came to an end, and Microsoft replaced Nokia in Salo. The product development unit in Salo continued to focus on hardware development. In early 2014, Microsoft’s new CEO, Satya Nadella, announced that the company would focus on developing software for different platforms and that device production would cease. Sales of Windows phones continued to decline and, in 2014, Microsoft laid off around 100 workers in Salo. The city deputies of Salo and the development company had already started to monitor the decreasing sales of Microsoft’s Windows phones. The mayor and a few people in the city assumed that Microsoft would make big moves, but this was not discussed in public. The development company and the city of Salo started to prepare for Microsoft’s upcoming changes and also informed the TEM. In July 2015, Microsoft released the shocking news that the company would close the product development unit (-1,000 jobs) in Salo. The news was more of the same for the city but, at the same time, also different, as the workers soon to be laid off were highly educated, comprising a large share of the human capital of the region. The city and the development company started to plan a strategy to use Microsoft’s

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highly educated workers to attract new companies to the region. In addition, Microsoft com- plied with its corporate social responsibility by launching the ‘Path’ support programme, which supported the newly unemployed workers to educate themselves and establish their own start-up companies. Microsoft’s managers also participated in the ÄRM coordination meetings, which were organised by the city. However, the ‘Path’ programme was independent from other activities, and as such it could have been coordinated better to match local needs. Within Microsoft, employees activated their own networks and established a registered association called Smartsalo. They wanted to generate new business activities in Salo by using their own R&D know-how and connections to TUAS. Smartsalo gathered Microsoft’s unemployed employees and their know-how ‘under the same roof’, which helped the city of Salo to market local know-how and use it in different development projects. The city’s development company organised the StartupHub society, which created a network of start-up companies in the Salo region. Although the Microsoft ‘Path’ programme offered significant support to start-ups, it simultaneously offered massive ‘resignation packages’ to workers who left voluntarily, which consequently had a pacifying effect on many former employees. Around 80 start-up companies were established in Salo, approximately half of which still exist. Most, however, have remained small. The city of Salo had created good connections, first with the top managers of Nokia and later with the top managers of Microsoft. In this way, the city created global networks that helped raise awareness among global companies about potential business opportunities in the Salo region. For example, the Hyperloop One project contacted the city to express interest in establishing an international product development unit in Salo. Unfortunately, this did not come to pass, and yet the fact that such a contact was made demonstrated the extent to which the region had raised awareness among and peeked the interest of large, global companies. The closure of the Microsoft site in Salo was the final stage of Salo’s ICT path deterioration. It became obvious that something had to be done, and that the regional opportunity space and agency needed to be rediscovered. Nokia and Microsoft, which comprised the basis of regional innovative entrepreneurship, were gone. The city and the development company continued to strengthen their role as place leaders. In this stage, they adopted a hybrid strategy: attracting companies, investing in the growth of existing companies, and supporting start- ups. The Smartsalo community had characteristics of an institutional entrepreneur as it sought to cultivate a new culture of cooperation between innovative people. However, massive outmigration continued, with the most competent people leaving despite the many actions taken to prevent it.

The establishment of Salo IoT Campus Salo IoT Campus is a science park that was established in the former Nokia / Microsoft facilities in 2017. In 2015, when Microsoft closed the R&D unit in Salo, the company sent signals to the city that it was willing to sell the premises. After processing the idea, the mayor of Salo and the CEO of the local OP bank started collaborating on the potential for buying

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the premises if local investors would be interested. The CEO of the local OP bank contacted actors from the Salo sub-region’s economic sector, while the mayor of Salo generated new ideas and contacted different ministries. Eventually, the project consortium consisted of the city, the city’s development company, the local OP bank, Lounea Oy and private investors. The motivation of the bank and the telecommunication service provider was to promote awareness of the poor development of the current operative environment. Private investors saw more direct benefits, but they also had personal motivations for supporting the development of Salo. The consortium started to construct a vision for the IoT Campus with a consultant who, e.g. conducted an analysis about the future potential of IoT technology in the region. The director of the city development services of Salo also benchmarked the IoT Campus concept from High-Tech Campus Eindhoven. The IoT Campus was envisioned as a platform in which start-ups and business cooperatives could operate and knowledge could be transmitted, hoping in this way to encourage competent people to remain in the region. At the time, the former Nokia/Microsoft campus was nothing more than a closed and guarded city within a city. The new campus would be diametrically the opposite, a place of open interaction and co-creation:

‘We took the city board there to see, “Look, these are the facilities that we are buying. – They were stunned about the main square, which is like from New York or Silicon Valley or somewhere. We didn’t know that we had something like this! – The spirit of the new campus was totally different from the beginning. – mixing people, bringing them to common lunch tables and coffee breaks and gyms. It is working, and people have adopted the idea’.

Traditionally in Salo, local attitudes towards the city being involved in different business activities has been critical to their implementation. The city is expected to take care of its basic tasks, and actors in local economic life are expected to operate properly in their field. Eventually, political actors became convinced about the potential benefits of the planned IoT Campus, especially because private investors were willing to participate. In the spring of 2017, Microsoft sold the premises to the consortium, which became Salo IoT Park Oy. It is noteworthy that Microsoft carried out its social responsibility by selling the premises for Salo IoT Park Ltd. at a much lower price than it was actually worth. So far, the results of the IoT Campus have been encouraging. The enormous 90,000- square-foot facilities are nearly full. The campus is actively hosting companies ranging from new small firms to more established companies. One of the first big companies to become directly involved was Orion medicine packaging (over 100 jobs) in 2017, followed by Valmet Automotive in 2019 (300 jobs). The city’s history in mobile technology has also attracted a small Huawei research lab unit. TUAS has also moved its Salo unit into the IoT Campus, thereby strengthening the IoT Campus concept by bringing students and companies together. The mayor of Salo, the CEO of the local OP bank, and the whole IoT Campus core group have assumed the role of place leaders. They have collected resources and developed a new vison and tool to develop Salo. Some individuals and consultants have also served as innovative entrepreneurs by contributing ideas about how to develop the campus concept further. That

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the consortium includes different kinds of actors is especially important. Private investors and companies have not only financed but also lent credibility to the IoT Campus. For its part, the public sector funded and additionally provided a legitimate framework for the development and implementation of the IoT Campus. In sum, the IoT Campus has introduced a new kind of public–private partnership model in Salo. Another outcome of the IoT Cam- pus project has been a clarification of the strategic focus of the region. IoT, which stems from now historical mobile hardware, was identified as the core of the region’s know-how, not so much replacing the opportunity space as formerly perceived but instead reimagining it. Another result has been the emergence of a new, more collaborative business culture. Even though it would be unrealistic to expect the IoT Campus to solve all of the region’s problems, it has given hope and credibility to the city of Salo, activated and brought together different actors, and provided the city and the region as a whole with a new direction and an innovative platform for business.

8.5 Trinity of change agency In Salo sub-region, there are clear differences in agency patterns before and after the mobile phone industry crisis. These changes have been profound and relatively fast. It has touched all forms of change agency and, afterwards, we can see that the crisis itself has forced out local change agency that used to be somewhat weak.

Innovative entrepreneurship Innovative entrepreneurship refers to actions aimed at transforming existing or creating new economic activities through the novel combination of knowledge and resources. In Salo sub- region, this role was played by Nokia for more than 20 years. Nokia was the global innovation leader in mobile phone technology, and Salo was the original core unit of hardware technology development. But this was a world of closed innovation, with limited embeddedness and interaction with other regional actors. Because of its attractiveness and massive size, the company actively recruited almost all competent people from the regional labour market and dominated the region’s industrial scene such that possibilities for other innovative enterprises were limited. Subcontractors in the Salo sub-region did benefit from the Nokia’s cooperation, but small companies usually did not reach Nokia’s network. However, the indirect effects on service and construction business growth were substantial. Even though the Salo sub-region has always been entrepreneurial and home to ‘one-man and a Hiace van’ small businesses, middle-sized, growing and innovative companies in other industries have been rare, with few exceptions in metal and insulation businesses. When the Nokia cluster collapsed, other companies were not able to absorb the impact, as their volumes were at very different scales. An innovative start-up culture was missing during the period of Nokia’s dominance. Alongside the company’s collapse, the focus of interest shifted to new companies that were established by ex-Nokia/Microsoft engineers. About 80 start-ups were launched via the IoT

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Campus, and approximately 40 of them still exist. These are often international niche businesses (like LED technologies) that benefit from the start-up community. However, many of them have remained small. This is a clear difference to, for example, the city of Oulu, where former Nokia engineers have established flourishing and fast-growing businesses. One possible interpretation is that in Salo, there were no ‘entrepreneurial engineers’ or that the critical mass and business environment in the city was insufficient to generate a substantial number of new businesses. In the post-crisis situation, two large Finnish companies have relocated their businesses (medicine packaging and car battery manufacturing) to Salo, but these companies do not represent innovative entrepreneurship even though they have re- lieved unemployment for some production workers.

Institutional entrepreneurship Institutional entrepreneurship is about challenging and transforming existing rules and practices. In the case of Salo, the city lacked institutional entrepreneurship. The city organisation had adopted the role of supporting the Nokia/Microsoft cluster and path continuation. In a way, this was understandable. The idea of Nokia ever leaving Salo was unthinkable to most people and was rarely ever even mentioned. Salo does not have higher education institutions of its own. It did manage to attract some study programmes, but these were mostly aimed at producing labour for Nokia/Microsoft. Nokia/Microsoft looked down on other kinds of cooperation, and genuine research partnerships with local higher education initiatives were infrequent. It can be said that the city’s weak institutional entrepreneurship led the region to a lock-in situation, the only escape for which was a crisis. Institutional entrepreneurship was forced out when the crisis hit. A new core group (city, development company, bank, investors, local phone network company) was called together after Microsoft announced its closure in Salo to discuss whether to buy the company’s facilities. The consortium generated a new kind of thinking with the help of a consultant company. Even more importantly, the defunct Phillips campus in Eindhoven was used as a benchmark. The concept of an IoT Campus as a new science park and an open platform that would bring together study programmes, companies and other organisations and thus serve as a viable and productive replacement for an otherwise useless facility was a promising no- tion. The crisis also changed the development ‘paradigm’ of the city organisation from being an actor concerned with basic services to being a more entrepreneurial and business-oriented actor:

‘A paradigm shift needed to happen in Salo – They were used to it, that the city only needs to be involved in housing. No need for active business development. – There was a hard struggle about whether we should support entrepreneurship? Should we invest? – There was a heavy conversation about the IoT park, should we do it? – That the role of the city is only to arrange education and like this – Creating the entrepreneurship model – From a traditional “municipality machine” to an entrepreneur’.

The new approach and also the emphasis on the IoT also eventually gained acceptance from the region and the wider audience and has therefore become a genuine regional strategy.

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Place-based leadership Place-based leadership is about actions aimed at coordinating and mobilising actors and resources for collective pursuits. Place leadership in Salo sub-region was not as strong and visionary in the golden era of Nokia simply because it was not needed. Everybody knew their place; the company was doing their business and generating growth, whereas the public sector took care of public services. Leadership during the crisis period was strongly personified by the mayor, who took charge of actions, utilised his networks and brought together different actors from the public and private sectors to find new ways out of the situation:

‘He (the mayor) had a style, that there was no room for misery, ”to-do” things came along all the time in appropriate amounts, always one step forward. In the beginning, nobody knew where to go, but Antti took care of it, that we moved on anyway. – He was a good crisis time leader’.

Also, the core group consisting of public and private actors assumed shared place leadership. Nokia/Microsoft left a huge vacuum in terms of regional agency. Therefore, the city and the new version of the development company were forced to adopt a new kind of role and assume more responsibility concerning place leadership.

8.6 Opportunity spaces The core of the region-specific opportunity space in the Salo region was traditionally mobile phone hardware engineering. This matched well with the time-specific global opportunity space in the 1990s and early 2000s. At first, Nokia created this opportunity space by inno- vating completely new kinds of mobile technologies and creating markets for new products. Over time, the development became more incremental. Nokia missed signals about changing consumer demands and the strength of its competitors, and it made some poor strategic and organisational choices, all of which led to a reduction in the company’s market share of mobile phones in the late 2000s. The fate of Salo was in the hands of Nokia. When the company grew and spread around the world, the position of the Salo unit became less relevant and thereby reduced Salo’s opportunities to exert an impact inside Nokia. The difficulties experienced by the company led to the closure of its operations and eventually its sale to Microsoft. Yet, the regional opportunity space was still very much the same as the individual agents’ (Nokia/Microsoft) opportunity space. The few successful middle-sized manufacturing companies have operated in different fields. They have not created regional value chains that would affect the formation of regional opportunity spaces or accumulated the requisite know-how. Salo is one of the strongest agricultural areas in Finland, but this feature has never been emphasised, nor have agriculture-related opportunities been comprehensively perceived. Presumably, agriculture did not match Salo’s high-tech image. The city’s strategic focus has remained on ICT technology with a new focus on IoT technologies. Yet, the growth logic has changed. Right after the shock, opportunities were sought from large utopian projects like Hyperloop. Soon, instead of pursuing one large actor that could solve all the problems Salo faced, the city adopted a hybrid growth strategy: supporting

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the growth of existing companies, establishing start-ups and attracting new companies. The medicine packaging and logistics centre and car battery manufacturing are examples of slowly widening opportunity spaces that approximate global time-specific opportunity trends. Still, adding a more knowledge-intensive dimension to these operations in Salo sub-region might help these industries become more tightly integrated in the region. The technology start-ups have found their opportunity space niche businesses, but their challenge is to gain growth.

8.7 Change obstacles and enablers Several factors either enhance or hamper change processes in the regional growth path. These include agent-specific constraints and capabilities. In addition, the institutional environment can either support or hinder change. Moreover, the access to knowledge and resources can limit or enable renewal. The strength and capabilities of Salo used to be human capital and ‘tacit knowledge’ about ICT hardware development. This was based on a long history in the radiotelephone and television industry that developed into mobile phone engineering. Because of the mobile cluster’s fast growth and lack of higher education in the region, many engineers were recruited from other cities, and many people commuted from Helsinki and Turku. As the ICT cluster grew, know-how was no longer a regional capability with the capacity for adequate integration in the region, only in the company. In other words, know-how did not belong to Salo but to Nokia instead, and as such much of it departed with the company. Yet, place mattered. Inside Nokia’s organisation, the product development teams were originally local, from development to production. Then, this chain was broken. First, production moved away; next, the teams assembled to handle specific products were scattered around the world. This slowed down processes and reduced the sense of control, culminating in the erosion of project ‘ownership’. It must also be remembered that not all people working in the ICT cluster in Salo were highly educated – indeed, roughly half of them were production workers whose labour market situation became exceedingly difficult after redundancies. It was problematic to find production work everywhere in Finland, so most of these workers stayed in Salo, unemployed. After the crisis, great number of competent engineers out-migrated and found work elsewhere, although some remained in Salo sub-region. Still, these workers commuted to Hel- sinki or Turku, and a small number were recruited by local companies in other fields. This generated an upgrade to the process and quality procedures of the local industry. Only a fraction of the ICT experts stayed and found work or established start-ups. In any case, the remaining expertise concerning ICT and international business in Salo sub-region is clearly valuable. In growth years, Nokia’s resources seemed almost unlimited, and it invested heavily in Salo. Also, city resources were abundant, and therefore changes were dramatic. The city once focused on services and the living environment, but not very strongly on the business environment. For example, in the days of Nokia’s dominance, the city policy was not to intervene in business estate ownerships. This changed when Microsoft was closing and leaving behind

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empty facilities. The necessary resources to acquire these facilities were gathered from public–private partnerships. Some local companies and investors realised that the facilities would represent a valuable opportunity to maintain and develop economic activities associated with their respective operative environments. Salo’s relationship to extra-regional subsidies and funding also changed. The regional level used to be rather insignificant to Salo sub-region. For example, ÄRM funds were typically channelled through regional-level organisations such that the ability to apply these resources needed to be learned. Salo was globally highly networked through its Nokia connections. However, the closed nature of these networks did not extensively benefit other companies. At the personal level, these contacts exist even today and are utilised by people in their current positions. In Salo, Nokia once had a subcontracting network, but these subcontractors were the first to suffer when Nokia’s business was in trouble. The relationship between a large corporation and regional actors is not equal and trust-based but rational and economic. Local higher education institutions units did not manage to create a long-term strategic partnership with Nokia/Microsoft either. Large corporations’ strategic partnerships were global, and regional partnerships were considered to be less relevant. This also meant weaker regional embeddedness. It was more important to have a position in Nokia’s own global network of sites. Salo was originally an important development centre. One partial reason for Salo’s decline may have been the change of CEO at Nokia. The former CEO had a strong affection for Salo (CEO until 2006 and board president until 2012), but his successors did not share this personal bond. In crisis management, state-level personal networks with ministries make things more fluent. The regional level used to be less relevant to Salo sub-region, but currently the region is well networked to Turku (e.g. TUAS) and regional development networks. The local-level business networks have traditionally been weak. In crisis, some new strategic partnerships were forged, but they are still weak between industrial companies. At the IoT Campus, where people are often former co-workers, cooperation between start-ups has been a more natural part of the business.

‘In Salo, traditionally there hasn’t been so much cooperation. Everyone has coped with their own business – Nokia leaving was such a big issue that it taught us to see cooperation in a new light’.

In the Finnish context, Nokia can be called an institution, i.e. a significant player that affected the development trajectory of the whole country and the cities in which it was located. Nokia was a giant, and the governance system, like education, was adjusted to match its needs. Salo, too, followed this pattern and trusted that its future would be secured. The formal institutions that usually assume responsibility for leadership were underdeveloped as a result, but have since taken on a stronger role after the collapse of the Nokia/Microsoft cluster. The Nokia era had various impacts on informal institutions as well. The region is often described as entrepreneurial, but this attitude did not emerge among highly educated engineers who followed the obvious working path from university to Nokia. The in-migration introduced many people who were loosely rooted to the area and thus moved away when their work

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ended. Nokia created a culture of silence, and thus people did not talk about their work to anyone. The post-crisis era has provided the space for more open collaboration, especially in the IoT Campus. The interviewees identified that the Salo sub-region does have some typical cultural characteristics. People do not brag about their achievements, but they are realistic and active. They do not surrender to difficulties nor focus their energy on resistance. However, cooperation and neighbourly help are also not their best qualities, and consequently people and companies are expected to get along on their own, which can, of course, be a disadvantage. Salo sub-region, and city of Salo especially, is still searching for a new identity. What would be its appropriate and sustainable size? What is its place and scale in the regional structure after its recent decline, and where should it seek cooperation? The city’s strategic focus has remained on ICT technology with the addition of IoT technologies. Yet, its growth logic has changed. Instead of pursuing one large employer to solve all of the city’s problems, Salo has instead adopted a hybrid strategy for growth: supporting the growth of existing companies, establishing start-ups and attracting new companies.

8.8 Conclusions The Salo sub-region case study is interesting in the context of Finnish industrial history, not least because it demonstrates one of the most radical structural changes in recent decades. The development of Salo sub-region occurred hand in hand with that of Nokia, and the unravelling of this connection has had a vast and substantial impact on Salo sub-region’s development trajectories and agency. The basis for the ICT industry was created over a long period of time. In the first phase, 1920–1989, the region had a variety of industries, like the textile and food industries, but also electronics by Salora and then by Mobira (first radios, then televisions and radiotelephones), which consequently led to cooperation with Nokia in 1989 and to the development of mobile phone device technologies. Regionally, this meant related diversification. Simultaneous with Salo’s electronics growth, other industries reached path extinction, one by one, but the production workforce was able to move smoothly from one industry to another. Despite the town’s relatively small size, Salo was at one time the main site of Nokia’s mobile phone hardware development, especially in the 1990s. Therefore, the second main phase, from 1990–2008, can be considered the ‘golden era of the mobile business’. Nokia’s growth meant the region’s growth too, and Salo enjoyed the benefits of both phone production and development operations. Nokia had discovered a time-specific global opportunity space in mobile phones. This development was driven by technological innovations, like GSM technology, that were partially developed in Salo. The regional development path in mobile technology went through path upgrading by renewal and climbing the global production network. The first positive outlier period was experienced in 1996–2001, when Nokia’s phones were booming and reaching a global market leader position. The second positive outlier was in 2004–2008, when business was still growing.

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From the agency perspective, the success of Nokia meant a stricter division of work: growth and innovative entrepreneurship were the responsibility of Nokia, which was running its own closed world inside Salo. The city organisation was in charge of maintaining and developing the basic services and city environment for the growing population but had a weak place-leadership in envisioning the future and supporting the business environment. Structurally, Salo was essentially outgrowing its category. The need for competent labour was massive, and yet the knowledge infrastructure, like higher education and research institutions, in the region was weak. Nokia’s other units around the world were slowly overtaking Salo’s position within the corporation, but in Salo it was an unspoken rule that Nokia’s position and presence in Salo was never questioned. Nokia was dominating the city’s business life and mental models. Be- ginning in the 1990s, a manufacturing cluster emerged in Salo around Nokia, containing, e.g. plastic parts and electronic components for Nokia’s mobile phones. However, these companies did not gain independence but were rather fully dependent on Nokia as its subcontractors. The growth of other industries was minimal despite services and construction that were fuelling Nokia-driven growth. The problems inside Nokia had been slowly accumulating. Organisational changes, bad technological choices and the dismissal of market signals began to erode its market share, and the financial crisis weakened the situation. The next main phase (2009–2017) in regional development was ‘the epic fall of mobile phone business’, leading to the mobile phone industry’s path extinction. The region was also a negative outlier in 2009–2015. First, the regional subcontracting network was cut down. Production was passed on to cheaper-cost countries and closer to markets. This showed that Nokia’s regional embeddedness in Salo was quite weak after all. In 2012, Nokia decided to end mobile phone manufacturing in Salo and, in 2013, they sold the mobile phone business to Microsoft. The decline continued, and Win- dows phones flopped. In 2015, Microsoft withdrew from the mobile business and closed the product development unit, thereby ending Salo’s path as a mobile technology producer. Re- gional agency, which had once been oriented towards serving the needs of one giant company, needed to be rediscovered. The city and the development company were learning how to assume a new and more active role as place-leaders. A new hybrid strategy of growth (supporting start-ups and existing companies, and attracting new companies) began to take shape. State support via ÄRM and corporate responsibility programmes offered important resources. However, heavy outmigration eroded the human capital in engineering, and unemployment among production workers continued to worsen. The region was looking for a new direction, and it was living through a critical juncture. The latest phase, ‘the era of re-orientation’, was initiated by the establishment of the IoT Campus at the old Nokia/Microsoft facilities in 2017. The campus has offered a platform for start-ups, has attracted new ventures, and has prompted TUAS to establish a facility on site. The campus represents a new kind of open collaboration culture diametrically opposed to the closed world of Nokia/Microsoft. In addition, the regional agency also assumed new roles in the process of creating the IoT Campus through public–private partnerships. The IoT Campus process also clarified the region’s strategic strength in IoT technologies. Some

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new companies have been attracted to the region (path importation), and interesting start-ups (related diversification) have emerged on campus. This provides hope for the future. The regional economy has become more resilient, as it is no longer dependent on a single large company. There are still challenges related to outmigration and job creation, but the region is well on its way to establishing a new identity and path. In sum, we can say that Salo sub-region’s path as a whole was connected to that of Nokia/Microsoft in an overly dependent way. The relation between the city of Salo and Nokia/Microsoft can in no way be considered equal. The regional effects of these kinds of large corporations can be vast, whereas the region’s ability to affect these companies is quite limited. It is possible to speculate that something more could have been done to keep Nokia’s and Microsoft’s operations in the region. It is true that the knowledge infrastructure and its connection to the companies were too loose and disjointed in Salo. However, in this case, the closure decisions were based on the global situation of the companies. In other words, the regional context had very little to do with the failures of these companies. The Salo region is now learning how to seek out new, wider opportunity spaces and take the future in its own hands.

Appendix 3. Interviews

Number of interviews: 20 from sub-region/ region + 1 concerning all regions Date range of interviews: 27.11.2019-30.4.2020 Average duration of interviews: 85 minutes Firms: 8 Government: 6 + 1 Universities/HEI: 2 Support organisations: 3 Other: 1 (local media)

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9 VARKAUS SUB-REGION Sami Sopanen & Heli Kurikka

9.1 Regional characteristics

Location and connections The Varkaus sub-region is located in the southern part of the Northern Savonia region of Eastern Finland. The sub-region consists of two municipalities (Figure 30): the city of Varkaus (population 20,466 in 2019) and the municipality of Leppävirta (9,454 people in 2019). Functionally speaking, other municipalities around Varkaus could be viewed as part of the sub-region. The city of Varkaus is a local centre, and the distance between it and the capital city of Northern Savonia, Kuopio, is 76 km (Varkaus, 2020; Leppävirta, 2020).

Figure 30. Map of the Varkaus region (Map information, Liiteri, 2020).

One of Finland’s main North–South roads, Highway 5, in addition to Highway 23, transect the Varkaus sub-region. These road connections are important, especially for the region’s international companies, which produce products for sale in domestic and international markets. The sparsely operated railroad in this region transects Varkaus. Travelling to Helsinki is not easy, as there are no direct train connections. There are, however, bus and regional

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train connections from Varkaus to Pieksämäki and then on to Joensuu, where there are trains to Helsinki, with the journey taking approximately 4 hours 20 minutes. Varkaus used to have its own airport, which was located in the municipality of Joroinen. Air traffic between Hel- sinki and Varkaus ended in 2013, which was a disadvantage for the region’s international industry. Currently, the nearest airport is Kuopio airport (90 km).

Population dynamics The Varkaus sub-region has suffered from a decreasing population during the whole observation period. In 1991, the total population was 38,117 – in 2019, it was 29,920 (-21.5%) (Figure 31). The main reason for the declining population is negative net migration due to the lack of higher educational opportunities for young adults, especially for women. Younger people are moving to other cities, like Kuopio and Jyväskylä, to study. The city of Varkaus has also experienced population loss, especially families with children, who have moved to neighbouring municipalities (Jääskeläinen & Lovio, 2003, 122).

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Figure 32. Population by age groups in the Varkaus sub-region 1991-2017 (StatFin, 2018)

The Varkaus sub-region has experienced problems attracting people from other regions of Finland. Varkaus struggles with the persistence of the problematic image of the city as ‘an old paper industry town’. This problematic image has had a real, adverse impact on the city, discouraging Finnish people from moving there. In addition, the employment structure of the city is predominantly industry-oriented, and because of this most jobs are designed for engineers. This has caused problems for some families because, in some cases, spouses cannot be easily employed. For foreigners, the threshold for moving to the Varkaus region does not present such a problem. Many of these residents work for large international companies that are located in the city of Varkaus.

Industrial mix and education The Varkaus sub-region is predominantly industry-oriented, with a long tradition in the fields of forestry, mechanical engineering and industrial automation. In the forestry industry, pulp and paper production has traditionally been an important field, but this has recently changed to container-board and glue-laminated beam production. During its heyday in 1996, pulp and paper production employed 1,510 people in the Varkaus sub-region. Since then, the importance of pulp and paper (including container boards) production for the region’s economy has decreased significantly, such that by 2015, it directly employed only 288 people (Figure 33).

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Health and social work 2500 Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles; repair of personal and household goods Manufacture of pulp, paper and paper products Education 2250 Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c. Construction

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Figure 33. The most employing industries in the Varkaus sub-region (Data for calculations from Statistics Finland, 2018).

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Varkaus region Finland

Figure 34. Share of tertiary education in the Varkaus sub-region sub-region (%) (age group 25+) (StatFin, 2019)

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Primary sector, Varkaus region, % Secondary sector Varkaus region, % Tertiary sector Varkaus region, % Primary sector, Finland, % Secondary sector, Finland, % Tertiary sector, Finland, %

Figure 35. Sectoral composition in the Varkaus sub-region (%) (StatFin, 2019)

Mechanical engineering has also been an important field of industry in the Varkaus region, and its significance has only increased in recent years. The region has a long history in the construction of power boilers – currently, two of the world’s three leading industrial boiler

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construction companies (Andritz & Sumitomo, SHI FW) have sites in Varkaus. Andritz has also a machine workshop, called Andritz Warkaus Works Oy, in Varkaus. The industrial automation field once employed many people in the Varkaus region, but between 2006 and 2007, the field lost around 350 jobs. In the private sector, in 2015, the manufacture of machinery and equipment was the biggest industry, whereas the manufacture of fabricated metal products was the third biggest industry (Figure 33). In this sense, Varkaus is rather narrowly specialised, and its export-oriented industry is sensitive to global business cycles. Compared to the Finnish average, the Varkaus sub-region has more jobs in the secondary sector. The biggest employment sector in the Varkaus sub-region is the tertiary sector, but the share of jobs in the tertiary sector is lower than the Finnish average (Figure 35). The Varkaus sub- region is very export-oriented, and many large international companies produce and export products from the region to global markets. The education level in the Varkaus sub-region was lower than the Finnish average during the whole observation period (Figure 34). The region does not have its own higher education institutions, only one unit of the Savonia University of Applied Sciences (main campus in Kuopio), which arranges education in the field of energy technology. This education programme started in 2010 with a yearly intake of 20 people. Savonia once provided education in industrial engineering and management, automation, information technology and business in Varkaus as well, but in 2011, the university decided to eliminate these educational opportunities at the Varkaus campus. Savonia University of Applied Sciences is still an important partner for the region’s energy technology companies, because Savonia is actively engaged in educating the workforce for the benefit of local companies and in cooperation for research and development. Another higher educational institution important for the Varkaus region’s industry is Lappeenranta-Lahti University of Technology (LUT). Although LUT does not implement education programmes in Varkaus, it does educate engineers for companies in the Varkaus sub-region. In addition, it administers a research group of measurement technologies in Varkaus. Nevertheless, the recruitment of qualified labour poses a persistent challenge for engineering companies in the region. The regional Savo Consortium for Education (SAKKY) is also an important educational institution for industries in the Varkaus sub-region. For example, welders who are educated by SAKKY comprise important components of the workforce for local machine shops.

9.2 Variables of the structural model The Varkaus sub-region was a negative outlier between 2008 and 2011, and because of this, the period can be called ‘a period of sinking’ (Figure 36). This means that the actual job losses during the outlier period were worse than the model predicted. The main reasons for these job losses in the Varkaus sub-region in 2008–2011 were the global financial crisis, which struck the region particularly hard, and the problems experienced by the Finnish forest industry concerning paper production at that time. Figure 36 shows that after the crisis, the number of jobs never fully recovered but did manage to stabilise and even slightly grow after 2015.

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Figure 36. Employment growth and model prediction residuals in the Varkaus sub-region (data for calculations from StatFin, 2020 and Statistics Finland, 2018)

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Figure 37. Number of employed and employment indexes in the Varkaus sub-region (1991=100) (data from StatFin, 2020 and Statistics Finland, 2018).

The variables that were used in the employment regression model are presented in Figure 38. The variables are indexed in such a way that the year 1995=100 and the index describe relative changes of each variable. In Table 7, these variables are ranked in relation to Finland’s other 68 continental sub-regions.

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200 Employment (nace1-74)

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Figure 38. The relative change in the variables behind the employment model in the Varkaus sub-region

Table 7. Variables behind the employment model and their relative position among other sub-regions

Variable (N=68) 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Public employment % public employment 27.06% 25.43% 25.04% 25.31% 26.92% Rank (sub-regions) 53 56 59 60 53 Human capital % of tertiary degree 20.13% 22.16% 24.21% 25.65% 27.10% Rank+25 (sub-regions) 22 25 24 29 30 High-tech manufacturing % of employment 6.54% 10.51% 10.53% 9.12% 9.89% Rank (sub-regions) 23 9 8 8 7 Knowledge-intensive % employment 28.47% 29.23% 31.42% 34.77% 37.40% business services (KIBS) Rank (sub-regions) 36 39 38 34 31 Manufacturing % employment 34.10% 30.42% 32.06% 27.05% 25.28% Rank (sub-regions) 6 11 7 10 8 Establishment average Number of people 531 589 591 479 447 size Rank (sub-regions) 13 7 4 11 9 Population density Pop / km2 2,466 2,364 2,294 2,191 2,076 Rank (sub-regions) 22 21 22 22 23 Household median in- euro 15,328 16,556 19,007 20,587 21,023 come per person Rank (sub-regions) 33 35 35 45 44 Diversity (1/HHindex) 15,69 17,61 16,51 14,66 13,27 Rank (sub-regions) 26 10 13 24 30 Specialisation Theil 0,347 0,289 0,278 0,246 0,240 Rank (sub-regions) 20 35 34 40 39

In the Varkaus sub-region, high-tech manufacturing was a strong industry until 2006, when it underwent a severe downturn. This coincided with similar downward trends in the local forest industry and in the field of industrial automation, which started to lose jobs. After the

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year 2000 it has improved its position into the top 10 regions in Finland even if the actual share has not increased in the Varkaus sub-region. This indicates that the region did not lose as many high-tech and medium-tech jobs as other parts of Finland due to the failure of Nokia, with which Varkaus had no relationship. The share of manufacturing jobs has remained high, such that the region has consistently been rated among the top 10 manufacturing regions. The 2008-2009 global economic crisis, however, adversely impacted manufacturing in the region, from which it did not recover until 2015. KIBS in the Varkaus region have typically been average compared to other regions, but they did grow slowly between 1995 and 2015. This indicates a shift from manufacturing to KIBS, such as planning and development. The establishment size of companies in the Varkaus sub-region is quite large compared to other regions. In 2015, these companies were the nineth largest in Finland. Generally, the region is home to a few big employers and a rather low number of SMEs. The diversity variable indicates the absolute diversity of the employment mix in the Varkaus region and the Theil about relative regional specialisation. These results are contradictory. Both variables, diversity (1/HHindex) and specialisation (Theil), have mostly decreased from 1995 to 2015. In absolute terms, the region’s industries have become less diversified, but their relative specialisation has also diminished, which can only be explained by other regions having become even more specialised than the Varkaus region. With its large share of industrial jobs, public employment in the Varkaus region is among the lowest in all of Finland and has for the most part slowly decreased between 1995 and 2015. The share of highly educated people (HE_pop_25+) in the region is average, nationally speaking, but it has been slowly increasing, although not as fast as other regions in Finland. The household median income has also increased but, in relation to other regions, it is declining, likely because highly paid paper industry jobs have declined, while the wage trends elsewhere have been growing faster.

9.3 Regional development trajectories

Phase 1 - The era of industrialisation (1909–1984) The industrial history of the Varkaus region extends back 200 years and has as such experienced a variety of changes over the years (see, e.g. Jääskeläinen & Lovio, 2003). Shipbuilding and steam boiler production began in Varkaus in the 1860s via Paul Wahl & Co. It can be said that steam boiler production at this time laid the foundation for Andritz’s and Sumitomo SHI FW’s contemporary boiler production. Ahlström bought the metal production facility and sawmill from Paul Wahl & Co in 1909, commencing a new era in the history of Varkaus. Ahlström, established in 1851, became a conglomerate by buying and further developing sawmills and ironworks companies around Finland. Ahlström thus created the industrial basis for Varkaus. The company constructed a power plant (1912), a sulphite pulp mill (1919), newsprint machines (1921 and 1926) and a plywood mill (1926). One interviewee described how the present-day bioproduct mills are just normal pulp mills, but the sulphite pulp mill in Varkaus a century ago was a real bioproduct mill, one which also produced soaps, deter- gents and other raw materials for the chemical industry from the mill’s waste products.

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In the 1940s, Ahltröm began developing power plant boilers, followed by recovery boilers for the chemical forest industry in the 1950s and circulating fluid bed boilers in the 1960s. In the late 1970s, Ahlström invented a form of pyroflow technology, which served as the basis for the contemporary technology used in the power plant industry. In 1961, Ahlström constructed the third newsprint machine in Varkaus. In 1964, Ahlström had 3,300 employees in Varkaus and practically owned the city. Also, in the 1960s, Ahlström began screen plate production in Varkaus. Between 1969 and 1980, Ahlström revitalised the forest industry in Varkaus. The company began manufacturing fine paper (1969), constructed the fourth paper machine (1977) and initiated many technological updates. In 1978, the pulp mill was modified into a sulphate pulp mill, the main product of which was dissolved pulp. This new sulphate pulp mill produced xylitol and molasses as by-products. Later, Ahlström started focusing more on fine paper production, and dissolved pulp became ‘basic’ pulp production. In the 1970s, Ahlström started producing evaporation plants for the paper and pulp industries. In 1979, Ahlström established a development department, Altim Control (later Alhström Automation), in Varkaus. This can be regarded as a new business, as Altim Control focused primarily on industrial automation. The company was established in Varkaus because it was here that the capacity to test the company’s products in a real industrial environment was possible (Jääskeläinen & Lovio, 2003). The era between 1909 and 1984 can be seen as path importation by Ahlstöm at first, followed by path renewal, which emerged from the boiler and pyroflow innovations of the 1940s to 1970s. Also, the industry later engaged in upgrading by renewal and having related diversification, but all of this happened inside one conglomerate company.

Phase 2 - Ahlström divided into pieces and the birth of its international ‘daughters’ (1985–2000) The era from 1985 to 2000 brought about big changes to the Varkaus region. Ahlström, the company that had developed the industrial economy of the region, began to decline. In 1985, Ahlström sold its plywood mill because of its small scale and limited importance to the company. The biggest change in the local industrial economy occurred in 1986, when Ahlström sold its forest industry business to a Finnish forest giant, Enso-Gutzeit (later Finnsh-Swedish Stora Enso), and bought the mechanical engineering business from Enso-Gutzeit. Therefore, Ahlström changed its focus from the forest industry to mechanical engineering and packing. In 1989, the company split its power boiler production into its own business division, Ahl- ström Pyropower. The main products of the Pyropower division were circulating fluid bed boilers. The company additionally created the Ahlström Machinery division for its mechanical engineering activities, which produced machinery and equipment for pulp production, such as recovery boilers. (Ambrusin, 2009; Jääskeläinen & Lovio, 2003.) In 1989, Sano- mapaino established a printing house in Varkaus, thereby a unique wood processing integrate was created in Varkaus. Entire newspapers, from log to freshly printed Helsingin Sanomat or Ilta-Sanomat, could thus be produced within just a few kilometres.

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In the early 1990s, Finland experienced an economic depression, which hit the Varkaus region especially hard, costing over 1,000 jobs. For example, in 1990, almost 850 jobs disappeared in the plywood mill and sock factory (Jääskeläinen & Lovio, 2003). Ahlström started focusing more on its speciality paper business and other investment businesses. Because of this change in the company’s business strategy, Ahlström began selling off its business units in Varkaus to other companies. In 1992, Ahlström sold its screen plate (pulp and paper technology) production facilities to the Canadian company CAE Screenplates, and also its Ahl- ström Automation unit to American company Honeywell. In 1995, Ahlström Pyropower was sold to Foster Wheeler, an energy technology company from the United States. In 2000, Ahlström sold half of its machinery division to the Austrian company Andritz AG, while the remaining half was sold in 2001. After these deals, Ahlström no longer had any operations left in Varkaus. In this period, the international ‘daughters of Ahlström’, including Stora Enso, Foster Wheeler, Andritz, Honeywell and CAE Screenplates, were born, and these new companies took the Ahlström’s position in the region’s economic life. These changes provoked fear among locals, who had always trusted Ahlstöm’s commitment to the region and its development. These fears proved to be unwarranted, as the new companies grew steadily while remaining in the region. Business branches that were once inside a single corporation expanded outwards into a business ecosystem of independent yet interacting companies. In path development, this era implied path upgrading by climbing the value chain, driven by new skills and connections contributed by these international corporations and also by the deepening focus on market niches through the achievement of leading positions in power boiler and other specified technologies of the chemical forest industry.

Phase 3 - Crises and upgrading (2000–2019) In the period between 2000 and 2019, old path branches in the Varkaus region were exhausted, whereas others were renewed. The early 2000s brought about new initiatives. Dur- ing this time, Stora Enso was searching for new development paths from the mechanical forest industry, and the company was constructing a planning mill in Varkaus. At the same time, Foster Wheeler and Andritz had established a common machine workshop, Warkaus Works, which built components of energy and pulp boilers (currently entirely owned by An- dritz). There was also a short experiment in telecommunications solutions in Varkaus led by Tellabs, which was not successful. In 2000, Varkaus received some new service sector jobs when a contact centre, Call Waves Solutions Finland Oy, was established. The screen plate production business was bought by Canadian Advanced Fiber Technologies from CAE in 2002. In the same year, Honeywell established a unit for the development of paper sensors, paper measuring devices and paper detectors in Varkaus (Suomen Lean-yhdistys, 2020; Jä- äskeläinen & Lovio, 2003). Subcontracting and service businesses, like global installations and maintenance services for existing industries, strengthened, and some quickly growing companies, such as Elcoline (2002) and SSG Sahala (2008), were established in the region by locals.

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The years between 2006 and 2011 can be considered a special structural change period – a critical juncture – in which the industrial economy of the Varkaus region stumbled and a financial crisis occurred. In 2007, Honeywell concentrated its service and development actions in Kuopio (the capital city of the region), and Varkaus lost around 300 jobs in industrial automation development (Taloussanomat, 2005). Honeywell’s decision also hindered the development of Varkaus’ unique wood processing integration, which was composed of different, locally invented technologies. Simultaneously, the local forest industry, the economic engine of the Varkaus sub-region, was in crisis. In 2006, Stora Enso shut down its first paper machinery in Varkaus, and two years later, shuttered its core board machinery. Also in 2008, Enics announced that the company would close its factory in Varkaus, and over 160 people would lose their jobs. As a result of these decisions, the Varkaus region was designated an ÄRM area by the state (Yle uutiset, 2008; STT, 2008). In 2009, Stora Enso released shocking news about its closure of its entire whole mill operation. In addition, Japanese Aikawa Fiber Technologies (which had bought Advanced Fiber Technologies in 2006), announced that it would end screen plate production in Varkaus, although the business was eventually saved. In 2010, Stora Enso decided to stay in Varkaus, but it closed two paper mills while retaining its sawmill and its fine paper and pulp production facilities (Yle Savo, 2010.) New, positive development paths also began to emerge, despite bumps along the way. In 2007, Carelian Caviar started breeding sturgeon and producing caviar in Varkaus. European Batteries constructed a lithium battery factory in Varkaus in 2008, which unfortunately went bankrupt in 2013. European Battery Technologies also launched a new effort to produce batteries in 2015, but that too failed in 2019 (Malinen, 2017). In 2009, Stora Enso and Neste Oil launched a biodiesel test factory in Varkaus. Honeywell moved some of its operations back to Varkaus in 2014 and, in the same year, Stora Enso converted a paper mill into a container-board mill. In 2015, the company established a laminated veneer lumber mill. A new Eco-power plant in Riikinneva was opened in 2016 and started to produce energy from community waste, utilising Andriz’s circulating fluid bed boiler technology (Tikkanen, 2015). In 2017, Japanese Sumitomo Heavy Industries bought the circulating fluid bed boiler business from Amec Foster Wheeler, and Finnforel began to build a rainbow trout hatchery in Varkaus (Sumitomo SHI FW, 2017; Eskanen, 2017). Andritz, Sumitomo and other international corporations along with their subcontractors now employ around 1,000 engineers in the Varkaus sub-region and are continuing to hire more people. Sumitomo has also moved some of its units from other countries to Varkaus, with, for example, the company’s product development being almost entirely located in Varkaus.

‘Mechanical engineering has reduced production and focused on planning and development in Varkaus – like for Andriz and Foster Wheeler, the units in Varkaus are very significant – There isn’t much of “bending the pipes” anymore, it has moved elsewhere, the planning and project management is there strongly’.

Between 2000 and 2019, some of the old industrial path branches ended but forest industry as a whole went through renewal. Paper production was replaced with container-board and laminated ve-

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neer lumber. The forest industry followed new directions driven by global changes in demand (reduction of paper use and increasing demand for packaging materials). Energy technology has taken the place of the most important industry in the Varkaus sub-region. Me- chanical engineering (including energy) has become more knowledge-intensive (R&D and services) even though manufacturing is still important. This is clearly path upgrading by climbing the value chain. Some smaller signals about path creation have also taken place in fish/caviar farming, and path importation includes battery manufacturing efforts and the contact centre.

Main changes of industrial paths In Table 8, we have summarised the types of industrial path developments observed in the Varkaus region. In Figure 39, we illustrate the different branches of industrial development in the Varkaus region.

Figure 39. Branches and phases of industrial development in the Varkaus region.

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Table 8. Types of new industrial path development

Types Mechanisms Observed in the Varkaus sub-region

Upgrading I – Climbing GPN Major change of a regional industrial path related to enhancement of position within global production networks; moving up the value chain based on up- Phase 2. All industries grading skills and production capabilities Phase 3. Mechanical engineering II – Renewal Major change of an industrial path in a new direction based on new technolo- Phase 1. Energy boilers and gies or organisational innovations, or new business models forest industry

Phase 3. Forest industry III – Niche development Development of a leading position in a market niche Phase 2. Energy boilers and forest industry technologies

Diversification I – Related Diversification into a new related industry for the region, building on compe- Phase 1. All industries tencies and knowledge of existing industries

II – Unrelated Diversification into a new industry based on unrelated knowledge combinations Emergence I – Importation Setting up an established industry that is new to the region (e.g. through non- Phase 1. Power plant, pulp local firms) and unrelated to existing industries in the region and paper Phase 3. Contact centre, battery production

II –New creation Emergence and growth of entirely new industries based on radically new tech- Phase 3. Fish and caviar nologies and scientific discoveries or as an outcome of search processes for farming new business models, user-driven innovation and social innovation

(Adapted from Grillitsch, M., & Asheim, B. (2018). Place-based innovation policy for industrial diversification in regions. European Planning Studies, 26(8), 1638–1662).

9.4 Change agency

Events underpinning change agency The Varkaus region has experienced many compelling events in its history. We have chosen to study four events in order to better understand the nature of agency in the region. The chosen events describe distinctive characteristics of regional agency and have each contributed to the regional growth paths to some extent. Not all of the chosen events emerged during the negative outlier period. The negative outlier in the Varkaus region was mainly caused by the global financial crisis in 2008 and by profitability problems experienced by the Finnish forest industry in paper production. In addition, many interesting events occurred that positively affected the development of the Varkaus region. Overall, 12 events were collected and analysed. We refer to different types of change agency according to the ‘trinity of change agency’ model.

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The establishment of Call Waves Solutions Finland Oy Call Waves Solutions Finland is a contact centre that was established in 2000 in Varkaus. At the time, the company was one of the first contact centres in Eastern Finland. It has developed steadily ever since, and today it constitutes an important job provider in the Varkaus sub-region, as well as in Kuopio and Mikkeli, employing about 180 people in 2020. Engineering jobs in the Varkaus region have traditionally attracted men. Accordingly, the problem is to find jobs for women. One weakness is that the service sector is regionally thin. The CEO of the local development company had a strong vision about what kinds of new jobs Varkaus would need. He understood that technological development would change the ways in which people would work in the future, with the potential for work to be performed almost anywhere. He also investigated contact centres and their future prospects and came to believe that the relative permanence of contact centre employees would be but one benefit Varkaus would receive compared to growing cities. Together, the CEO and the mayor of Varkaus established a small consortium, which consisted of local and nonlocal actors and financiers. The consortium made a study trip to Joensuu, and later to Ireland, where some contact centres were already in operation. These trips inspired the consortium to establish a company. An interesting detail about Call Waves Solutions Finland is that the city of Varkaus became one of its owners. The mayor was very business-oriented and was willing to take risks. Another investor was found from Turku via personal contacts. The origins of the idea came from the CEO of the development company, who had identified the need for structural change in the local labour market and had a vision, which refers to institutional entrepreneurship. Both the mayor of the city of Varkaus and the CEO of the local development company have acted as place-based leaders in this event, coordinating and mobilising actors by establishing a development group, which later created and financed the company. The group also brought knowledge and resources together to create a new business in the region. Because of this, the actions taken by the group could be called innovative entrepreneurship. The roles here are overlapping because of the involvement of only a few key individuals. Interestingly, the public sector is also assuming a large role in the business initiative. The regional opportunity space widened slightly to a new service sector business through path importation. In this case, the importers were not external but internal actors.

The crisis and the new development paths of Stora Enso Oyj Throughout its history, the forest industry has been an important industrial field in the Varkaus region. Stora Enso’s mill in Varkaus integrates different units and employed around 400 people in 2020. Before the 2006 job reductions, Stora Enso had employed around 1,200 employees and had produced fine paper, newsprint and core board in Varkaus (Turun Sano- mat, 2006). The 2000s were generally a hard decade in the Finnish forest industry. Infrastructure was partially outdated, and the market for paper products was shrinking. Stora Enso reacted to the changing demand with mill closures and changes to its business strategy. In 2006, Stora Enso closed the first paper mill in Varkaus (-150 jobs), one of the first major shutdowns of

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its kind in Finland at the time. Between 2005 and 2007, the company also made big investments in Varkaus and for example, the production capacity of the paper machine number 3 was increased. The mindset in Varkaus was ‘If the company invests in Varkaus, it will be the best life insurance for the factory’. The new investments gave hope to workers that the company’s management still believed in Varkaus. These workers also searched for new development paths for mill integration. In 2007, Stora Enso and the Finnish fuel company Neste Oil launched a joint bio-diesel project. The workers in Varkaus contacted the management of Stora Enso and convinced them that Varkaus would be an optimal location for the test factory. The test factory was established in Varkaus in 2009, and it worked as planned – but at the time, the production of bio-diesel was not profitable at a large scale. A second setback occurred in 2008 when the company shut down its core board mill (-136 jobs). The city’s representatives contacted the Ministry of Economy, and the Varkaus region was designated an ÄRM area, after which it began to receive special funding to relieve unemployment. The real shock struck the region when Stora Enso announced that it would close its entire mill operation in Varkaus. This announcement motivated different agents in the region. The employees and the management of the Varkaus mill integrate wanted to demonstrate their profitability and renewal capability. They made different calculations and were keen to find new production solutions. They made suggestions about the possibility of converting the paper mill into a board mill.

‘Many studies were made and we (the local unit) did not stick to the fact that these would be eternal solutions, we were thinking about future development and we presented them to the corporation management. – The local managers and unit board, economic section, development section, they presented alternatives and fought. – The whole personnel to the lowest level was ready to support new solutions’.

The Ministry of Economy together with Stora Enso organised an ÄRM working group, which started searching for new opportunities for the Varkaus region and for Stora Enso in Varkaus. The group consisted of different deputies from, for example, the city of Varkaus, Stora Enso Oyj and the Ministry of Economy. Also, different specialists from the Finnish forest industry were involved in the working group. The group suggested that Stora Enso should develop pulp production in Varkaus and start producing new products from the pulp – for example, boards. They also had the idea that Stora Enso should develop the sawmill in Varkaus and start producing cross-laminated timber (CLT) for the wood construction business. At the time, Stora Enso only engaged in CLT production in Austria. At first, Stora Enso’s corporate management did not consider these suggestions. The city of Varkaus together with a politician who had high standing in national politics were also involved in proposing ideas about new and innovative activities that could be performed in Varkaus to Stora Enso’s highest-level management. The region had the required human potential and well-functioning industrial networks. The ongoing bio-diesel production experiment bought some time and slowed down the closure as well. Simultaneously, representatives of the city of Varkaus and politicians pressured the state to interfere in Stora Enso Oyj’s closure decision. Varkaus also revived the local development company, which

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had nearly been closed down. The local development company in cooperation with Stora Enso tried to find new companies around Finland to fill Stora Enso's empty premises. One identified company was Teijo-Talot, a builder of transportable houses. Later, Teijo-Talot left because Stora Enso needed the premises for its own use, but Teijo-Talot nonetheless fulfilled the role of providing temporary relief from unemployment Eventually, in 2010, Stora Enso announced that the company would stay in Varkaus, but that its paper production would end. The management of Stora Enso Oyj came to the con- clusion that the company could not develop its business only by cutting operations, but that it should also seek out new business opportunities from, e.g. consumer packaging markets, which were growing alongside web-shopping. In 2014, Stora Enso converted its paper mill in Varkaus into a container-board mill. Stora Enso also saw that the wood construction business had future potential because of environmental trends. Therefore, in 2015, the company established a laminated veneer lumber mill in Varkaus. An interesting side story in this respect is the development of fish farming and caviar production in Varkaus mills. Both types of production can be seen as an importation of industrial path. The establishers of Carelian Caviar contacted Stora Enso in the hope of using the company’s facilities to breed sturgeon and produce caviar. Pools were constructed, and cooperation began in 2007. In 2018, a sister company, Finnforel, started breeding rainbow trout at one of Stora Enso’s sites. Both Carelian Caviar and Finnforel are currently breeding fish via innovative circular water technology and, together with the Stora Enso company, have created an industrial symbiosis. The fish breeders get water and energy from Stora Enso, while Stora Enso obtains chemical additives for water purification from the fish breeders. The effects of fish breeding and caviar production on local employment are as of yet minimal, and yet this process highlights aspects of local innovative entrepreneurship as well as new, innovative types of collaboration:

‘There was a clear change within Stora Enso. Before, they kept everything to themselves, no outsiders. Now they are actively searching for solutions and partners that would develop things where they could be involved’.

Stora Enso in the Varkaus sub-region is the story of the survival and struggle of a regionally significant industry. The corporate sovereignty of decisions concerning regional units is obvious. However, local agency, especially within the factory, allows for the active pursuit of new ideas to widen the agent-specific opportunity space. Such agents were able to use subtle influence to offer new ideas and therefore played roles as innovative entrepreneurs within the company – most importantly, they demonstrated the willingness to make necessary changes without focusing on resistance to these changes. The working group, which was organised by the Ministry of Economy and Stora Enso, also acted as an innovative entrepreneur by searching for new production ideas in Varkaus. The city of Varkaus and especially its development company assumed place-based leadership in the crisis by gaining resources and coordinating actions. In addition, political pressure was exerted at the state level. At first, the time-specific opportunity space worked against Varkaus, but eventually a way was found to meet the opportunity space

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with container-board and laminated veneer lumber mills. This led to diversification and renewal of the industrial path.

The establishment of battery production in Varkaus European Batteries Oy was a company that produced lithium batteries and battery management systems (BMS) in Varkaus between 2008 and 2013. The actor behind the first idea of the company was a Finnish battery expert who had owned an IT service company in the late 1990s. Among his contributions was the discovery of why some laptop computer batteries failed earlier than expected. In 2003, the battery expert established a company called Finnish Electric Vehicle Technologies (FEVT) in Riihimäki, Southern Finland, to utilise BMS knowledge in electric vehicles, which demonstrated promising future potential. At first, it was proposed to attract a Chinese lithium battery producer to Finland. Then, the business advisor of Varkaus met with the battery expert to discuss the city’s capacity to capitalise on the latest energy trends. The business advisor believed he could convince FEVT to establish a unit to Varkaus if he could find enough capital. With the help of private investors, one of whom was from Varkaus, he succeeded. The private investor from Varkaus wanted FEVT to construct a battery factory on site instead of in Riihimäki because, at the time, Varkaus had a high unemployment rate and yet a suitable workforce. In 2006, FEVT established a small product development unit (10 people) in Varkaus. Later, it became clear that regional development funding and other subsidies for the battery factory would be higher in Varkaus than in Riihimäki. The private investor had other successful businesses in Varkaus, and he was well networked there. The investment company of Varkaus constructed the premises, and the city guaranteed the construction loan and the financiers and owners of FEVT established European Batteries Oy for battery production in Varkaus. The business advisor helped European Batteries Oy obtain public funding for the establishment of battery production and participated in the company’s board meetings as an external expert. Many European car manufacturers were interested in Euro- pean Batteries Oy but not in the battery management systems the company made. Unfortu- nately, European Batteries Oy made some strategic mistakes in their product choices, ultimately going bankrupt in 2013. The Varkaus sub-region had lost many jobs, especially in the forest industry, and residents were hoping that battery production would represent a new beginning. Batteries were an entirely new field of industry in the region, and as such it can be seen as an attempt to import new industrial path. Many interviewees mentioned that the establishment of battery production in Varkaus occurred quickly because, at the time, the region had an abundant unemployed workforce. The company also faced some resistance from local actors because they received substantial public funding. Especially, the city’s decision to help European Batteries Oy by guaranteeing the loan for the new premises was criticised. Later, a company called European Battery Tecmhnologies began battery production once again in Varkaus, but it too went bankrupt. The local development company is still searching for new actors to begin battery

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production yet again. Some Finnish actors have expressed interest in this effort, so this industrial path may yet represent a new beginning. It is also possible that the idea is still ahead of its time. In this event, we can identify a couple of actors who acted as change agents. The battery expert can be seen as an innovative entrepreneur because he had ideas and visions about the possibilities of battery production. The private investor from Varkaus provided resources, business know-how and local networks, thereby also acting as an innovative entrepreneur but with engagement in Varkaus. The business advisor from Varkaus acted as a place-based leader because he mobilised private and public resources for a common goal.

Developing and keeping the energy technology education in Varkaus Savonia University of Applied Sciences is a higher education institution that arranges education in the Northern Savonia region. Savonia’s main campus is in Kuopio, with other, smaller campuses in Iisalmi and Varkaus. In the Varkaus campus, Savonia is arranging only energy technology education, and today between 200 and 250 students are studying in Varkaus. Savonia has an important role in the Varkaus region because it is educating engineers for local companies, especially companies in the field of energy technology. In addition, Savonia and the local companies are completing R&D projects together. Before energy technology education started in the Varkaus campus, Savonia had arranged different development projects in the field of energy technology in Varkaus. The local advisory board of Savonia, which consisted of the deputies of the local companies, educational institutions and development institutions, started searching for solutions for the low appeal of Savonia’s education programme in the Varkaus campus. At the time, Savonia arranged education in the fields of industrial engineering and management, business administration and automation technology. These actors understood that energy technology is an important industrial field for Varkaus and Savonia, and should as such focus on this technology in the Varkaus campus. In 2010, Savonia started energy technology education in Varkaus thanks to local politicians and members of the advisory board, who actively lobbied for the education. Soon after, in 2011, Savonia announced that it would concentrate all education in Kuopio. This was due to the state’s decision to reduce allowances that had been aimed at the development of universities of applied sciences. This decision mobilised actors in Varkaus, who fought the decision. One important actor was a local politician who, alongside managers of some local companies and the local development company, began promoting the importance of energy technology education for the region. They realised that Savonia could not keep all of its current educational fields in Varkaus, but they lobbied to keep energy technology education in place as it was crucial for local companies. The group met with the Minister of Education about continuing this education in Varkaus. The meeting was successful, with the Minister of Education overruling Savonia’s decision to end energy education in Varkaus. The minister also allocated development money for the future development of the energy technology training programme. Developing and retaining energy technology education in Varkaus were actions aimed at strengthening the region’s energy technology industrial path. It was as much about maintenance agency as it

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was about change because the outcome led to education and research improvements in Varkaus. Local actors understood the importance of energy technology education for the region’s companies. The local politician was a place-based leader as he was the most active player. The managers of local companies also discovered their role as place leaders and also activists in the face of an imminent threat. The statements made by the companies especially convinced the Minister of Education to retain energy technology education in Varkaus.

9.5 Trinity of change agency Next, we reflect on what we have learned from the described events so we can better understand the nature of agency, opportunity spaces and both obstacles and enablers of change in the Varkaus sub-region.

Innovative entrepreneurship Innovative entrepreneurship refers to actions aimed at transforming existing or creating new economic activities through novel combinations of knowledge and resources. In general, international and innovative companies characterise regional agency in the Varkaus sub-region. These companies innovate with technological solutions for global markets and act as engines of the regional economy. The leading companies serve as the basis for regional path renewal by keeping up with developments in, e.g. environmental technologies, utilising production side streams and creating a circular economy. These companies form a business ecosystem in which the success of each company is mutually supported. Companies often reside in different parts of the same value chains or in slightly different business fields such that they often do not compete directly. They sometimes operate together to distribute large project supplies worldwide, and this ability is one their key capabilities. The forest industry has created a core or platform in which technologies can often be tested. The region’s innovative entrepreneurship rests mainly on the shoulders of these international companies, and thus local SMEs are not typically pursued to enhance livelihood. This also includes risks, as the decisions are mostly made elsewhere. Interesting developments in the new millennium demonstrate that the region has the potential for innovative entrepreneurship in new fields, but the expected outcomes are not yet clear.

Institutional entrepreneurship Institutional entrepreneurship is about challenging and transforming existing rules and practices. This form of agency could be stronger in the Varkaus region. However, from time to time, some active individuals have challenged current ways of thinking. For example, seeking diversified solutions to the male-dominated labour market or understanding the role of batteries in the energy sector represents institutional entrepreneurship. Proponents of such no- tions are often city or development company representatives as well as regular business persons. Institutional entrepreneurship in general is often connected to higher education and research, but this sector has been relatively weak historically. Even though Varkaus has many engineering jobs, some engineering study programmes and a new energy research lab, there

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is a dire need for highly educated specialists. Lappeenranta-Lahti University of Technology is an important provider of experts to the region, but highly educated foreign labour is also common. This international dimension is rare in Northern Savonia, and for this reason it may represent a novel approach.

Place-based leadership Place-based leadership concerns actions aimed at coordinating and mobilising actors and resources for collective pursuits. Varkaus has faced challenges in terms of place-leadership, especially in previous decades. But when the region faces such threats, such as the possible closure of Stora Enso’s factory or the termination of the energy technology training programme, place-leadership is activated. The local development company has actively promoted the region’s interests at the national level. International companies did so as well, even though many of them had never done so before. Their local managers began to acknowledge their role as place leaders: regional spokesmen and lobbyists for the adequate provision of education and training, the cultivation of regional image, and regional development more generally. Altogether, regional place-based leadership has been somewhat fragmented and inconsistent in nature. It has been activated when needed, but there have been times when it has not been as strong as it could have been, e.g. the role of the city has varied:

‘We have had a lack of an actor who collects things together, “runs the orchestra”. And this role belongs to the city’.

‘This, could we say, working together for a common goal has emerged (along with the crisis). I don’t know if we had that very much earlier’.

9.6 Opportunity spaces The Varkaus region has traditionally found its region-specific opportunity space in the forest industry, which is typical in Finland. In addition, different kinds of mechanical engineering industries have formed and strengthened from this root for decades. Especially, energy technology has grown strong and has already outweighed the significance of the forest industry in the region. The specialisation core rests in the chemical and power boilers run by two global market leaders located in Varkaus. The opportunity space in Varkaus was already relatively international since Ahlstöm, but it became even more global with the introduction of the ‘daughters of Ahlström’. The opportunity space has recently widened to encompass completely new fields, like fish and caviar production. This is just one example of open-minded efforts that have emerged in the 2000s in search of new opportunities. These efforts have not always led to success, e.g. battery production, but they have clearly shown the region’s ability to find solutions to changing situations. However, there is the question of whether regional specialisation in energy via the burning of materials can comprise a long-term vision. Batteries might thus represent a new branch in the region’s energy technology. The time-specific opportunity space for batteries might be more favourable at present than it was in the past.

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9.7 Change obstacles and enablers Many factors either enhance or prohibit change processes in the regional growth path. There are agent-specific constraints and capabilities. Additionally, the institutional environment can either support or hinder change. Moreover, access to knowledge and resources can limit or enable renewal. The main capability that supports path development in the Varkaus region is engineering know-how. This know-how is rooted in international mechanical engineering companies and has developed over decades. Technological cores are focused on energy (fluid bed boilers) and technologies involving pulp and paper (automation and chemical pulp processes, like recovery boilers). These technologies are constantly and incrementally being developed in Varkaus, where many development operations of international corporations are located. The presence of the forest industry has provided a platform for testing and developing technologies but also for developing them further and applying them to other fields. Another important capability is the ability of these international companies to distribute large project supplies around the world. For example, the world’s largest CFB boiler solution was deliv- ered to South Korea from Varkaus in 2015. In some cases, companies in Varkaus also cooperate in such deliveries. In addition, Varkaus possesses know-how in the area of maintenance services for the boiler and forest industries. International corporations have capital, which is an important resource for developing businesses in Varkaus. However, it also includes risks, as decisions are often made elsewhere. So far, many decisions have ultimately favoured the region:

‘The people who make the decisions, are not actually here. They sit somewhere in Canada, Austria or Tokyo. This may be the curse and blessing of Varkaus at the same time. These corporations are big and have stable ownerships, which is a great thing in many ways. But on the other hand, they are international listed companies who look at the business, not form the love of the region but with pure numbers and results’.

Public resources have also played an important role, especially in building facilities, e.g. the Navitas office building or industrial production facilities. Risk taking in investments has in some cases saved company units in Varkaus but, on the other hand, has sometimes led to financial problems for publicly owned industrial companies. State funding is important when the region faces difficult times and layoffs. These funds are not to be used only to sustain existing structures but rather for seeking new out opportunities as well. One of the region’s resources is the engineering workforce. Having several strong employers makes the labour market more attractive by providing opportunities to change jobs. However, despite its beautiful lake location and landscape, the region has a rather ‘grey’ and industrial image, and it is not very well known, which causes recruitment problems inside Finland. Networks in the region reach out globally (e.g. to Japan, Italy, Austria) to international corporations for internal contacts, customers and suppliers. There are also internal networks between companies in the region. Many companies share a common history that dates back to Ahlström, but it is not this history or even the local social capital that is the source of

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cooperation. Cooperation is very much business-based, and in some cases, proximity affords an advantage:

‘We can buy and use subcontractors from here or elsewhere, depending on where the project is and if they are competitive. – we do not donate money. But of course proximity gives a chance for good and close cooperation’.

Nevertheless, the region’s industrial network has provided important added value to companies. The networks between businesses and the public sector have sometimes been somewhat distant, and information has not always been passed optimally. This has hampered the establishment of common regional goals. International companies and their local managers are not as embedded in regional networks as SMEs might be, as their most important partnerships are located beyond the region. However, this engagement has improved in the 2010s. Until the 1980s, Ahlström was an institution that was actually responsible for the development of Varkaus. Its dissolution left a power vacuum, but the city and later its real estate companies and development company have taken the lead, sometimes more strongly, sometimes more weakly. New companies have not taken such a strong institutional role. Tradi- tionally, Varkaus has been led by left-wing parties, and some kinds of division between labour and employers exist culturally. (Sub)regional cooperation between municipalities is not very strong. Regional dispersion is caused by location, e.g. Northern and Southern Savonia regions, and surrounding municipalities have different orientations towards commuting, services and politics. When it comes to informal institutions, such as cultural factors, Varkaus is not as explicit as elsewhere in Finland. Interviewees identified a rather low level of interest in establishing enterprises, because even though large employer(s) have always existed in the region, residents nonetheless maintain a work-oriented attitude. Industrial culture and the know-how related to it are seen as strengths. One interesting observation is the willingness and ability to try out new ideas, which may be derived from the Ahlström period, as company engineers often work in multiple fields, and international employees have worked in the region for over 100 years.

9.8 Conclusions The Varkaus sub-region is an industrial semi-peripheral region in Finland. Its industrialisation began at the end of the 19th century and developed intensely under the guidance of the Ahlström conglomerate company until the 1980s. This era laid the foundation for the forest industry and mechanical engineering. These industries operate mainly in manufacturing but also in developing new technological solutions. The second phase began when Ahlström sold its operations from 1986 onwards. This was when ‘globalisation arrived in Varkaus’, as the buyers were international companies interested in gaining tacit know-how on specific aspects of the chemical forest industry as well of the power boilers produced in Varkaus for decades. In the early 2000s, Ahlstöm had no operations left, but three other main industrial branches stemmed from paper/pulp production: power boilers, industrial automation and paper/pulp technologies. The new owners

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contributed to path upgrading by climbing the value chain, driven by new skills and connections contributed by these international corporations and also a deepening focus on market niches by reaching leading positions in the manufacture of power boilers and other specified technologies of the chemical and forest industries. The international ownership of companies has supported deeper engagement in international networks, which has created growth and employment, but regional commitment has been inconstant and ‘placeless’. Agency has moved further away from regional decision making. Many companies in the region operate in the same value chains in different parts, so they benefit from proximity and cooperation as well as from a business ecosystem that supports their presence in the region. However, cooperation networks are business- and issue-based, not, e.g. social capital or solidarity. The third phase, starting in the new millennium, was more turbulent. The negative outlier period was observed in 2008–2011. The forest industry was in trouble due to changes in global paper demand, i.e. time-specific opportunity space did not meet agent-specific opportunity space in the Varkaus region. Second, the structural preconditions made the region vulnerable to a global financial crisis, as export-oriented mechanical engineering is rather volatile. Eventually, some of the old industrial path branches came to an end but forest industry as a whole underwent path renewal. Paper production was replaced with container-board and laminated veneer lumber production. Mechanical engineering has upgraded gradually by climbing the value chains and becoming more knowledge-intensive. Signals of path creation have taken place in fish/caviar farming, as well as in path importation in battery manufacturing efforts and contact centre. The agency in the third phase is multifaceted. Because the crisis was global in nature, and because decisions concerning business units in Varkaus were not in local hands, the regional agency had limited power to directly intervene. Nevertheless, we can argue that regional agency has played an important part in path renewal. The capability for adaptation had been partially created before the crisis. We identified three proactive agency-based explanations that helped cope with difficulties. First, the leading companies in mechanical engineering kept up with technological developments, e.g. in environmental technologies, utilising production side streams and the circular economy, i.e. acting as innovative entrepreneurs and gradually widening actor- and region-specific opportunity spaces. These companies also resorted to layoffs during the recession, but they still provided an alternative path when the forest sector was in danger. Second, different initiatives to upgrade the path and even create new industries (like batteries and caviar) were launched in the 2000s. These initiatives have emerged from innovative entrepreneurs (in some cases, inside regional business units) and also from some institutional entrepreneurs in the public sector. Third, cooperation in the regional business ecosystem and qualified labour have provided companies with the added value needed to bind them to the region and give them the motivation to look for new business opportunities. In and after the crisis, the activity of local agency intensified. Especially, the place-based leadership that had been fragmented and inconsistent began to reorganise, e.g. the re-establishment of the development company, which then began to coordinate and mobilise resources to gain state support. Some actions were forms of short-term maintenance agency, the focus of which was on keeping employees in the region during redundancies and helping them to find

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new jobs. But change agency has been even more important. A key characteristic of regional agency has been that regional actors did not focus on resisting the change. They were open to making necessary changes and were active in suggesting alternative products that would better match the time-specific opportunity space and still meet their region-specific strengths. In doing so, they have been experimental, and they have accepted the risk and possibility of failure. The crisis also launched another change in the patterns of place-leadership. International companies located in the region had not engaged much before the crisis in developing regional preconditions. Their local managers began to see their role as place leaders: regional spokesmen and lobbyists promoting education and training, cultivating a regional image, and regional development more generally. This enhancement in place leadership may have positive consequences in the long run. In a way, the place-leadership in the Varkaus region needed the push that the crisis caused. One weakness in regional agency in the Varkaus region is that the forms of change agency do not always work together as well as they could. Successful innovative entrepreneurship exists, and some institutional entrepreneurs exist too, but as place-leadership has occasionally been weak, a common vision continues to be lacking, and as such actors may push in different directions. In some regions, the TCA roles are overlapping. In the Varkaus region, however, this is not so much the case. The Varkaus region has never fully recovered from its difficult years, as the number of jobs has permanently remained at a lower level, but nonetheless stabilised and even shown slight growth. The region has suffered losses, but even so, it has once again emerged due to the capacity of its actors to adapt and remain open to new opportunities.

Appendix 4. Interviews Number of interviews: 18 regional + 2 covering more than one region Data range of interviews: 11th June 2019 – 24th April 2020 Average duration of interview: 75 minustes Firms: 11 + 1 Government: 1 + 1 Universities/other higher education institutions: 1 Support organizations: 4 Other: 1 Regional media

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