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June 30, 2005 Lebanon Election Mapping Results Summary

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June 30, 2005 Lebanon Election Mapping Results Summary IFES Quarterly Report: April 1, 2005- June 30, 2005 Lebanon Election Mapping USAID Cooperative Agreement No. DGC-A-00-01-0000400-00 Project Period: April 7, 2005 – August 15, 2005 Total Budget: $430,000.00 Expenses Recorded to Date: $187,552 Results Summary/Impact Statement During the period covered by this report, in summary IFES: • Provided periodic reports to USAID on developments in Lebanon on the electoral law and on electoral preparations more generally; • Put in place analytical components describing a strategic electoral assistance program for Lebanon; • deployed technical specialists in the areas of electoral administration, voter education, media monitoring and observation liaison; and • Developed, produced and disseminated voter education “response messages” prior to the Election Day. Background From early April 2005 to late May 2005 IFES conducted and electoral “mapping” mission in Lebanon to enable IFES to develop an effective follow-on electoral assistance strategy. IFES deployed a 5 member team of elections and regional experts in election law, management and administration, security, representation systems design, voter education, communications and outreach, delimitation of constituency boundaries, Lebanese history, and socio-political development, who conducted an assessment and provided detailed analysis of the current political situation in Lebanon. The team met with a range of social and political stakeholders including representatives from political parties, civil society, faith-based organizations, the government, media and other elements in Lebanese society. Elections were held on May 29, June 5, June 12, and June 19, 2005. Since late-May 2005, IFES has been engaged in providing electoral technical assistance to the Lebanese government in the following areas identified by the Lebanese government: observation liaison and media monitoring. IFES has also engaged in addressing challenges and developing projects in the area of political finance, voter education and electoral administration. Activities IFES activities are fully detailed in a series of five reports which have been included as annexes. Activities Planned for Next Quarter • Continue to provide technical electoral assistance to the Lebanese government in the areas as identified by the government; • Develop and conceptualize a long-term electoral assistance program; and • Continue to develop a program for Lebanon to address challenges in the area of political finance which promote transparency and accountability. Attachments: ANNEX A: Lebanon Mapping Mission, First Interim Report, April 25, 2005 ANNEX B: Lebanon Mapping Mission, Second Interim Report, May 15, 2005 ANNEX C: Lebanon Mapping Mission, Third Interim Report, May 26, 2005 ANNEX D: Lebanon Mapping Mission, Final Report, June 30, 2005 ANNEX E: Lebanon Mapping Mission – Electoral Assistance Follow on Project, First Interim Report, June 30, 2005 ___________________________________________________________________ LEBANON MAPPING MISSION Team Report INTERIM UPDATE Beirut, April 25, 2005 ___________________________________________________________________ Under the Consortium for Elections and Political Process Strengthening (CEPPS) agreement number DGC-A-00-01-0000400-00, award for “Lebanon Election Mapping”, IFES is providing the first of three progress updates. The second such update will be provided on or about May 11, 2005. These updates will be used to create the electoral map of Lebanon as described in the project proposal. At the time of this report, the IFES team is comprised of the following members, all of whom contributed to this update: • A Political Competition and Oversight Expert (arrived on April 9); • A Field Operations Specialist (arrived on April 9); • A Participation, Inclusion, and Security Expert, (arrived on April 13); and • A Legal Framework Expert (arrived on April 18). Two additional team members will arrive shortly and will contribute to future updates: • An Election Administration and Security Expert, (scheduled to arrive on April 29); and • A Delimitation Expert (scheduled to arrive on May 6). This initial update focuses on gaining a fuller understanding of the political situation and general environment in view of the electoral process during a time of great fluidity and change. In addition, it presents very preliminary findings on the election structure and election administration. This report should be considered preliminary and thus the information presented will be subject to significant modification or elimination from the final report. 1 1. GENERAL OVERVIEW Overshadowing all other events were the recent establishment of a new government and the Prime Minister’s stated commitment to hold elections by the May deadline. It is under this assumption that groups and blocs from the opposition continue to negotiate and form new alliances, not only for electoral purposes but to prepare for the discussion surrounding potential amendments to the electoral law – specifically those that will have an effect on the composition of the new parliament and government. A key element clarifying the general context of the electoral environment and process in Lebanon is the absence of a structured political party system. Instead, Lebanon’s political forces operate in a fluid system of alliances and arrangements between individuals who derive power from a combination of factors that include their religious confession, family/social status and economic influence. The assassination of former Prime Minister Hariri has resulted in patriotic sentiments of unity among Lebanese citizens and has contributed to the formation of a more cohesive opposition. This, accompanied by the withdrawal of the Syrian forces, has opened a public discussion and creates the opportunity to address several fundamental aspects of democratic institution building. These include a potential reform of the election system, the review of the system of representation, and issues concerning political parties and political financing laws. This current discourse, however, will not necessarily remain as keen once a new parliament and government are formed. This poses a serious challenge in forecasting the scope and nature of technical assistance which might be necessary. It also hinders the identification of viable opportunities for a potential program of support to promote transparency and equity in the political process. 2. LEGAL FRAMEWORK To date, the amendment(s) to the electoral law of 2000 have not yet been approved by the parliament. However the new Prime Minister, Najib Miqati, has stated that should an amended law be approved prior to May 29, the election will be held under the newly amended law. Otherwise, elections will go forward on the basis of the existing law of 2000. Debate surrounding all amendments is expected to begin the week of April 25, making it increasingly possible to achieve the May 29 deadline. A proposal to change the system of representation from the current majoritarian system to proportional representation has also been introduced in the public discussion. Proportional representation is openly supported by Amal, Hizbollah, the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), and Lebanese Forces (LF) and less conspicuously by other blocs in the opposition. This discussion has also involved one of the key issues in the current debate: the question of district size. Although many parties seem flexible on discussing both issues, they -- in particular the “core” opposition groups - - are more concerned with holding the elections on time. The fundamental political battle is being fought over the size and form of the districts. Since the end of the war, the districts have been redrawn prior to each election in order to facilitate a majority for pro-Syrian candidates. Indeed, this is the main argument for not reverting to the 2000 law. However, others feel that with the 2 Syrian influence loosing strength, reverting to the districts delimited in 2000 would not have the same effect today, and would at least ensure holding elections on time. Other options being discussed are: • Division into electoral districts according to the large administrative districts (muhafada), favored by the loyalists and vehemently opposed by Qornet Shahwan. (The Taif Accord stipulates muhafada but “after the administrative divisions are revised”; or • Take up an agreement made in early February on a draft law favoring smaller districts (qada), which was to have been voted on the day after Rafiq Hariri’s death. This position is now being pushed by the Christian opposition. Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir is the main supporter of the qada, and he may be able to convince the Hariri and Jumblatt blocs to support him. In the view of some observers, this issue has the potential to cause a fundamental split in the opposition ranks, since Jumblatt seems likely to opt out of the qada-based proposal. As an accommodation to the loyalists, Jumblatt recently suggested a law based on nine rather than seven muhafada, and on the majority system. The gap between those who support a law based respectively on qada and muhafada may be impossible to bridge, leaving the 2000 law as the only compromise that would ensure that elections be held on time. It is not possible to determine at the moment whether, even if the 2000 law is used for the upcoming polls, momentum for fundamental changes to the election law is large enough to reappear after the elections. The sectarian make up of parliament will not change regardless of the electoral law that is adopted
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