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Indonesia Special Report Indonesia Special Report Issue date: 22 April 2020 RAMADAN & IDUL FITRI IN INDONESIA: COVID-19 AND OTHER RISKS The Muslim fasting month of Ramadan is due to start on the evening of Thursday 23 April, with Friday 24 April being the first day of fasting. Ramadan H&A ADVICE TO CLIENTS will run for one month, concluding with the Idul Fitri holiday on Sunday 24 Clients should be aware of the persistent high May. The precise dates for the start of Ramadan and Idul Fitri remain subject risk of terrorism in Indonesia and of the to confirmation by the Ministry of Religious Affairs in association with mass heightened risk of violence perpetrated by Muslim organisations. The ministry will hold a meeting on Thursday 23 April hard-line groups during the fasting month. to confirm it. Normally, the government allocates collective leave around the Idul Fitri period, during which time government offices and many businesses Clients should take care to respect religious are closed. This year, however, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the sensitivities, norms and customs in relation to government has moved the collective leave from 26 – 29 May to 28 – 31 fasting. Clients should also exercise increased December in order to discourage millions from going on the annual “Mudik” vigilance, maintain a low profile and be aware exodus from Greater Jakarta and other major cities to their hometowns for of their surrounding environment. Idul Fitri. The government has since announced a ban on Mudik travel to help stop the spread of COVID-19. LARGE SCALE SOCIAL RESTRICTIONS (PSBB) Ramadan and Idul Fitri will take place this year amid large-scale social restrictions (PSBB) in a number of cities, regencies and provinces as part of plans to contain COVID-19. The Jakarta government imposed PSBB on 10 April for a period of at least 14 days. However, Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan has said that it is likely that the period will be extended. Among the restrictions are a ban on gatherings of more than five people and changes to public transport services. Eight sectors are exempt from the restrictions, including health, food & beverage and the transportation of goods. These measures will be enforced by the police, the military, and Public Order Agency (Satpol PP) officers. In addition to compulsory restrictions, the Ministry of Religious Affairs has issued guidelines for Muslims in Indonesia during Ramadan. The ministry has urged Muslims not to perform mass evening prayers (known as ‘Tarawih’) at mosques. It has also called on the Indonesian Ulema Council (MUI) to issue a fatwa prohibiting Muslims from performing Idul Fitri prayers traditionally held by congregations at mosques or in open fields to mark the end of Ramadan. The country’s two largest mass Muslim organisations, Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) and Muhammadiyah, have issued statements reinforcing government recommendations to conduct prayers at home. NU has suggested that Muslims who live in so called “red zones” where COVID-19 cases are prevalent, should avoid praying at mosques. Muhammadiyah has also suggested that mass Idul Fitri prayers should not be held. Large gatherings could increase the spread of COVID-19 but some groups may hold their prayers in congregation nonetheless. 1 IDUL FITRI EXODUS President Joko Widodo on Tuesday 21 April announced a ban on the annual “Mudik” exodus to come into effect on 24 April. Commuter trains serving Greater Jakarta will remain operational to cater for essential workers, but toll roads will be restricted to logistics trucks and essential vehicles. The restrictions will be enforced under the Health Quarantine Law with penalties to include fines and prison time, however the government is allowing a two week grace period, potentially triggering a rush of travellers before the sanctions are enforced from 7 May. The Ministry of Transportation said that vehicles and travellers attempting to leave Greater Jakarta will be turned back. The president said that his decision was based on data which indicated that around 24 percent of people were still planning to travel. Last year, the ministry estimated that 44 percent of Greater Jakarta residents – about 14.9 million people – returned to their hometowns. The government is preparing measures to implement the ban as of writing. Muslim organisations have also urged people not to travel. The Indonesian Ulema Council (MUI) said that Muslims should avoid journeys that risk spreading COVID-19 to other regions. A study by public health researchers at the University of Indonesia forecast that up to one million people across Java could require hospitalisation for COVID-19 by early July if the government did not ban the exodus. Furthermore, 11 percent of respondents from a nationwide survey by Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC) said that they were planning to return to their hometowns for Idul Fitri anyway this year. Around one third of the respondents were from Jakarta. CRIME & CIVIL UNREST Ramadan and Idul Fitri are times of increased criminal activity in major cities across Indonesia. There is a heightened risk of robberies and street crime both prior to and during Idul Fitri as people seek additional funds to support their journeys home , or simply to exploit poor security measures at empty houses. The police have said that some criminals may also attempt to take advantage of the COVID-19 outbreak by committing crimes while the public are preoccupied with efforts to mitigate the spread of the disease. The Jakarta Police have deployed a special team to maintain security and public order ahead of and during Ramadan. They have mapped and monitored a number of gangs that could potentially engage in clashes during the Ramadan period. While police initially reported that total crimes decreased amid the large-scale social restrictions put in place to combat COVID-19, there is a risk that crime levels could increase if the economic situation continues to deteriorate and leads to higher unemployment. A director at the National Police Security Intelligence Agency (Baintelkam) said that crime and social unrest could cause security disruptions. Measures such as the distribution of economic and social aid to those most affected by the restrictions will be implemented to avert such risks. THREAT OF TERRORISM & RADICALISM The police have not identified any specific terrorist threats for Ramadan, however pro- Islamic State (IS) groups have repeated calls for supporters to carry out attacks. There have also been multiple terror-related arrests and incidents in recent weeks. Security forces shot and killed two suspected members of the East Indonesia Mujahidin (MIT) terror group in Kayamanya village, Poso, Central Sulawesi, on Wednesday 14 April following an attack on police guarding a bank in the city. One police officer was injured in the shooting. More recently, MIT are suspected of kidnapping and killing a resident in Poso on 19 April. Earlier, the police special counterterrorism unit Densus 88 arrested suspected terrorists during raids in East Java, Southeast Sulawesi and Maluku on 11 and 13 of April. The suspects were allegedly members of Jamaah Ansharut Daulah (JAD), a network of IS supporters in Indonesia. Densus 88 also reportedly seized homemade bombs and explosive materials during an arrest in Central Java last month. 2 Terrorist attacks have occurred during or close to Ramadan in previous years. In June 2019, an attempted suicide bomber detonated a bomb at a police post in Kartasura, Sukoharjo regency, Central Java. There were no fatalities and the bomber was only injured. The perpetrator was an IS sympathiser but not part of a terrorist network. Just days before Ramadan in 2018, a series of attacks by JAD in Surabaya, East Java, resulted in 28 deaths, including 13 attackers. The perpetrators committed suicide bombings at three churches and the Surabaya Police Headquarters, as well as accidentally setting off an explosion at an apartment complex. A few days later, five men linked to JAD attacked the Riau Police Headquarters in Pekanbaru city armed with swords and a firearm. One police officer was killed during the incident; police later shot and killed four of the perpetrators and arrested the fifth. While police have not identified any specific security threats this year, caution is advised due to the precedent of increased risk. In previous years, entertainment venues and restaurants have been raided during Ramadan by hard-line Muslim groups such as the Islamic Defenders Front (FPI) who accused them of breaching Ramadan regulations. However, this year the risk of such incidents is reduced due to the PSBB restrictions on entertainment venues and large gatherings. CULTURAL CONSIDERATIONS Levels of observance of Ramadan vary from country to country but most Indonesian Muslims observe the fast, which requires that they abstain from eating or drinking between dawn and sunset. Non-Muslims, pregnant women and the sick are not under the same obligation to fast. Even if not prohibited, clients should avoid eating, drinking or smoking in public. As this is a holy month for Muslims, clients should also be mindful of behaviour or dress that may cause offence. In addition to restrictions brought about by the PSBB, business hours (including for restaurants), may also be subject to change to accommodate the fast. The Ministry of Religious Affairs has recommended that large gatherings to break the fast (‘buka bersama’), not be held this Ramadan, to prevent the risk of viral transmission. HILL & ASSOCIATES ADVICE: This year's Ramadan period will be subject to several COVID-19 related factors that have potential to cause disruption, including PSBB restrictions and unemployment as a result of mass layoffs. These sensitive issues could lead to isolated incidents of unrest. As such, H&A strongly recommends clients consider the following precautions: Remain informed of the current situation through trusted media sources, professional risk management consultancy and your own corporate security advisory.
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