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SUMMARY OF STRATEGIC CASES FOR NWML AND SWML CORRIDORS

Mainline railway enhancement requirements September 2020 SUMMARY OF STRATEGIC CASES FOR NWML AND SWML CORRIDORS SUMMARY OF STRATEGIC CASES FOR NWML AND SWML CORRIDORS Context

Since 2018, the (WG) • The emerging findings of the South In addition to the strategic transport More specifically, the Welsh and Transport for (TfW) have East Wales Transport Commission schemes, examples of the most Government’s view is that genuine progressed further work to develop the (SEWTC))iv . significant transport related economic ‘levelling up’ cannot simply mean a Strategic Cases for investment in Wales’ rail This works sets out the importance development projects in progress or in sprinkling of new, ad hoc rail projects network. This paper presents a summary of significant further investment along planning across Wales are also set out. decided in Whitehall, it has to be part of a of those developing cases, drawing upon a the Main Line (SWML) strategic approach to promoting growth wide body of work, including: corridor (via more capacity, additional Whilst there are a range of broader in all parts of the UK. Neither can it just be services and stations) to provide the policy positions underpinning the need about equality of access – merely the • 2018, The Case for Investment (and backbone of an integrated public for more investment in in ability to ‘bid in’ to new funding sources - supporting Programme Strategic transport networkacross the whole of Wales, the most pressing is the climate it must be about outcomes and a genuine Outline Cases (PSOCs)i South Wales. emergency. We all need to work towards attempt to narrow the real world gap in Identified over£2Bn transport user decarbonising our transport systems and terms of rail infrastructure investment benefits that could be realised across • Further formal scheme and business to reduce our car dependency which, between Wales and the rest of the UK to Wales with a similar size capital investment case development work undertaken by pre-Covid, accounted for over 80% of support increasing economic growth and programme; this figure would be higher TfW and regional partners related to commuting mode share. This is in line prosperity. if the full range of schemes set out projects like the Bay Metro, with our broader environmental and well- below, and Wider Economic Benefits, are Metro, being objectives and goes beyond purely This requires a degree of positive considered. frequency enhancement, transport interventions. discrimination to counter the inbuilt frequency and NW Corridor/ advantages of areas like the Southeast • 2019, A Railway for Walesii iii Cardiff Crossrailvv. The Welsh Government welcomes the of . ‘Levelling up’ has to be This sets out the case for devolution of rail fact that the UK Government is now something which meaningfully powers, current plans, wider well-being • has also been developing exploring the opportunity to ”level up” rail involves devolved governments in the considerations and ambitions for future Strategic Outline Cases (SOCs) under investment across the UK and notes that design and governance of its approach. rail development and innovation across guidance from the Department the success of the City and Growth Deals Wales. This was supported by a statement for Transport (DfT) for schemes across Wales are to varying extents setting out the Welsh Government’s key including: Relief Line Upgrade, North dependant on complementary service and journey time aspirations Wales Mainline improvements, and improvements to rail connectivity, both Swansea Cardiff journey times. Whilst within and to/from Wales. welcome,these fall some way short of the Welsh Government’s strategic ambition for the rail network in Wales.

© Crown copyright 2019 978-1-80082-427-0 Mae’r ddogfen yma hefyd ar gael yn Gymraeg SUMMARY OF STRATEGIC CASES FOR NWML AND SWML CORRIDORS SUMMARY OF STRATEGIC CASES FOR NWML AND SWML CORRIDORS Strategic Commuting overview Changes in commuting mode in Wales, 2003-20178

As was set out in the 2018 Case for The development of strategic cases 2003-2017 Mode 2017 Percentage change in use of each mode Investment, investment in transport undertaken by WG and TfW has also Mode Share services and infrastructure is included extensive interaction with key and change In average journey time necessary to deliver the Welsh stakeholders (for example business Government’s (WG) economic and groups like CBI, Growth Track 360, North Car well-being ambitions. Wales Economic Ambition Board; Health +9% +4 bodies, Academia, Local Authorities, City 81% mins • To increase Wales’ levels of and Growth Deals) who have all shaped productivity and improve its Gross and support the emerging proposals. Value Add (GVA) per capita (which is Walk only 73% of UK averagevii) Covid will clearly impact future transport planning. However, even with more local -18% +5 • and to deliver its obligations on and home working, we still expect post 8% mins decarbonisation, sustainability Covid that there will be a need for more and well-being. public transport given the very high levels of pre-Covid car use (~80% This is even more important given the commuting mode share). The +7 -7% scale and potential economic impact of opportunity we have is to deliver more 4% mins rail schemes being developed elsewhere public transport over time and in the UK (especially HS2 which has the encourage more development in places potential to negatively impact the Welsh that can be accessed by public transport - economy without further transport so called “Transit-Oriented Train interventions). Development” (TOD). This is vital, given +212% +7 that today many jobs, retail and public 4% mins Our analysis is clear that a programme of services are located in places that can investment in rail infrastructure in Wales only be accessed using a car. These are is required to support a stronger, key considerations in the new Wales Cycle inclusive and more equitable economy, Transport Strategy, which is in +4 delivering prosperity for all by connecting development, and the National +46% people, communities and businesses to Development Framework. 2% mins jobs, services and markets.

Car share Driver Passenger Percentage change in numbers of car drivers +24% -51% and can passengers from 2003 to 2017 Sometimes driver Sometimes passenger -21%

Figure 1 Commuting Mode share changes in Wales (Senedd Research) SUMMARY OF STRATEGIC CASES FOR NWML AND SWML CORRIDORS SUMMARY OF STRATEGIC CASES FOR NWML AND SWML CORRIDORS

South Wales

In the south, Cardiff, with its extensive rail When one considers the proximity of links to surrounding towns, forms a /Bath this creates an economic We all need to substantial city region of 1.5 million people, as subregion with a population of over 3 million does Swansea to a lesser extent with a wider people that has major agglomeration city region population of over 0.7 million potential across multiple industries work toward (Figure 2) . The city of Cardiff itself is now including financial and professional nearly 370,000 having grown from 310,000 services, , biotechnology, decarbonising in 2001 and plays a pivotal role in the Welsh and TV/Film production. economy. our transport

West Wales/ Bristol systems and to Swansea Bay Region 1 million 0.7 million 1.5 million reduce our car Swansea Newport Bristol 0.25m 0.35m 0.15m 0.45m dependency.

Figure 2 GWML/SWML serves over 3M from Bristol to Swansea

Improving the links and reducing journey Its role was crucial in the recent Cardiff times between the Swansea Bay City Capital Regionix City Deal agreement to Region, the Cardiff Capital City Region, develop a compound Bristol, and Heathrow, as set out in clusterx in the region. 2017 by the Office of the Secretary of State for Walesvii, will support further economic The Swansea Bay City Region needs to development opportunities. nurture and grow hi-tech companies – something set out in the Swansea Bay City The role of Wales’ leading higher Dealxi. education institutions and their impact on the national economy should also be The deal includes a range of projects based noted; for example is on key themes of Economic Acceleration, one of the UKs leading research Life Science and Well-being, Energy, and universities being ranked in the top five in Smart Manufacturing; it also includes a the last formal research excellence region wide initiative to support innovation assessment in 2014viii. and low carbon growth. SUMMARY OF STRATEGIC CASES FOR NWML AND SWML CORRIDORS SUMMARY OF STRATEGIC CASES FOR NWML AND SWML CORRIDORS

Primary transport issues in South Wales • Much of east Cardiff and Newport (an Below represents a summary of the key urban population of over 300,000) transport issues that have been identified is poorly served by rail and integrated through the body of work undertaken in regional public transport, contributing South Wales in the last few years: to more car use, congestion and air quality issues; especially in urban areas • Rail journey times from west Wales and on the M4 to Bristol/London are poor; much of the (SWML) is • The lack of a dedicated local commuter a 90mph railway or less vs 125mph rail service for Swansea Bay’s urban east of Bristol Parkway (figure 3); this area (~300, 000 pop.), and the constrains demand and encourages alignment of both SWML and Swansea more car usage on already congested District Line (SDL) through Swansea roads, with consequential air quality and (NPT) means that impacts; Cardiff is also the worst rail rail services are infrequent and relatively connected major city in the UKxii in indirect when compared with the road respect of direct services to other network leading to congestion and air major UK cities quality issues

• Low service frequency and • Key stakeholders have reported that overcrowding from Cardiff to Bristol rail patronage from the west of the Temple Meads – 2tph. The demand for Swansea Bay region (Milford Haven, rail travel between Cardiff and Bristol Pembroke and ) to the estimated for 2043 in Network Rail’s east of the region (Cardiff, Bristol and route studies, is similar to that between London) is low, partly because of the Manchester and Leeds which has 6tph. poor journey times. Leeds-Manchester connectivity will be further enhanced through the ongoing £3bnTrans Pennine Upgrade (TPU) programme; more ambitious £30bn plans have also recently been set out as part of Transport for the North (TfN)’s Northern Powerhouse Railxiii SUMMARY OF STRATEGIC CASES FOR NWML AND SWML CORRIDORS SUMMARY OF STRATEGIC CASES FOR NWML AND SWML CORRIDORS

Paddingtion - Swansea Linespeed (Down Direction)

160

140 SET Capability (ETCS)

SET Capability 120

100

Reading

80

60 Bristol Parkway to

Linespeed (Mph) 40

20 Newport Swansea Cardi 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

Distance from Paddington (miles)

Figure 3 Line speeds on GWML between Paddington and Swansea (source ARUP) SUMMARYSUMMARY OFOF STRATEGICSTRATEGIC CASESCASES FORFORSUMMARY NWMLNWML ANDAND OF STRATEGIC SWMLSWML CORRIDORSCORRIDORS CASES FOR NWML AND SWML CORRIDORS SUMMARY OF STRATEGIC CASES FOR NWML AND SWML CORRIDORS

North Wales Primary Transport Issues in North Wales

North Wales has a population of some The role of further education institutions Below represents a summary of the key 697,000 with the coastal strip towns east like Coleg Cambria in supporting the transport issues that have been identified of Conwy accounting for some 175,000. regional economy in is through the body of work undertaken in In comparison West and Wirral should also be noted. In , North Wales in the last few years have a combined population of 660,000 the development of the marine energy and have direct access to the major centres • High car dependency for many • Only 2tph to related to economy (including new tidal power of Chester, and Manchester and journeys leading to congestion & capacity and operational constraints at major employment areas. The Mersey Dee proposals at Colwyn Bay) is also important resulting air quality issue Chester Station area comprises north east Wales, west as is the tourist economy which impacts Cheshire and the Wirral. Whilst spanning rail services and presents opportunities • Low line speeds on North Wales Main • The need to better serve Bangor the Wales – England boundary, the Mersey for better access and further growth. Line (NWML) (LT 90mph) & modest which is the busiest station on the Dee area has been recognised as a single With the exception of the border areas, frequencies impacting services to NWML in north Wales. economic sub-region, with a population north Wales has struggled to attract and Manchester, Liverpool, London and close to 1 million. South Wales; Victorian signalling in • underutilised with low retain higher quality private sector jobs some places service frequency; journey times are In the north an industrial cluster focussed and relies more heavily on the public also relatively poor and uncompetitive on automotive, energy, aerospace and sector. The North Wales Growth Dealxiv with car; the lack of through services advanced manufacturing spreads across developed with the North Wales to Liverpool means it does not serve the border from Wales towards Chester. Economic Ambition Boardxv will help potential commuter market well despite address these issues and provide a proximity. foundation to align economic development with enhanced connectivity along the NWML corridor. SUMMARY OF STRATEGIC CASES FOR NWML AND SWML CORRIDORS SUMMARY OF STRATEGIC CASES FOR NWML AND SWML CORRIDORS

Welsh Government investments

Since 2001 the Welsh Government has Now, with the transfer of the Core Valley funded in whole or in part, a number of Lines (CVL) and as part of the new Wales significant enhancements, despite this and Borders franchise, Transport for being a non-devolved responsibility. Wales is delivering the next phase of the Projects include: ambitious . This £740m enhancement investment (with • Vale of Line reopening approximately £190m from UK Government and £160m from the EU) will • Ebbw Valley reopening deliver:

• replacement and • Electrification of the valley lines. double tracking • Faster and more frequent services • New stations (some with a UK using new tri-mode and -train Government contribution) at places rolling stock. like Energlyn, Pye Corner, Bow Street, Ebbw Town and station improvements • New and improved stations. across the network such as This demonstrates what the Welsh • North South journey Government and are time improvements able to deliver with devolved powers and funding in respect of rail infrastructure. • Merthyr frequency enhancements. SUMMARY OF STRATEGIC CASES FOR NWML AND SWML CORRIDORS SUMMARY OF STRATEGIC CASES FOR NWML AND SWML CORRIDORS

Priority South Wales proposals schemes into #1 South Wales Mainline (SWML) (for example Park/Ebbw Junction, the 2020’s... To bring the SWML up to the same Cardiff West junction and the two standard as the other “main lines” across track sections of the SWML west of Building on what the Welsh Government Post Covid the opportunity to support the the UK, requires a major upgrade in terms Cardiff) and Transport for Wales are already economy through infrastructure of line speed, capacity and electrification. delivering, there are a range of schemes development is also a key consideration. This is essential to enable delivery of the The Welsh Government has also set out along the South Wales and North Wales Welsh Government’s journey time and some journey time ambitions: mainline corridors that have been subject In summary, the primary proposals that economic ambitions and to integrate with to initial development by WG, TfW and/or have been subject to initial development the UK Government’s Western Gateway London > Cardiff 85 minutes local authorities over the last few years. and merit further scheme and option ambitions in south west Englandxvi. Cardiff > Swansea 30 minutes development through Outline Business Cardiff > Bristol Temple Meads These all focus on the need to deliver Cases (OBC), include: It will also help maximise the benefits of the 30 minutes more rail capacity, shorter journeys, more investment in the Core Valley Lines which is Carmarthen > Cardiff 75 minutes service, more stations and integration with now the responsibly of the Welsh bus and active travel. The primary drivers Government. Key requirements include: In the interim a package of tactical are to enable more efficient labour measures are required (e.g. level markets, support sustainable economic • Additional London and Bristol Temple crossing removal) to upgrade the SWML development, our collective need to Meads services to Cardiff, Swansea and from Junction (STJ) to address the climate emergency and to West Wales Milford Haven (inc. provide more sustainable mobility choices. and Relief lines) to more easily enable a • New SWML/Relief Line local services mix of inter-city express and all stop and stations/interchanges including: commuter services. Magor, , Cardiff Parkway, Rover Way/Newport Rd, M4 All along this corridor there are Junction 34, and St Clears significant development opportunities that will be influenced by these • Carmarthen to become the parkway proposals; for example: Cardiff Parkway, for West Wales supporting faster Carmarthen and Newport, Cardiff and services from Cardiff all the way to Swansea City Centres Milford Haven using the Swansea District Line

• Addressing bottlenecks on Network Rail’s network impacting the future development of services and Metros SUMMARY OF STRATEGIC CASES FOR NWML AND SWML CORRIDORS SUMMARY OF STRATEGIC CASES FOR NWML AND SWML CORRIDORS

SWML Corridor Priorities

Ebbw Vale Core Valley Lines #3

D B #2

#2 #5 London & #1 C Heathrow

Swansea Port Bristol Milford Carmarthen Neath Newport Haven High Street Talbot #1 Parkway F E STJ H J A #4

I Bristol Temple Meads G

Primary rail lines/ Enhanced Marches, Ebbw Metro areas express services Valley and Major stations Swansea Bay Urban Area New stations Rail Metro Transport related Enhanced SWML Intercity Services developments and Commuter Services

Figure 4 illustration, not all stations shown SUMMARY OF STRATEGIC CASES FOR NWML AND SWML CORRIDORS SUMMARY OF STRATEGIC CASES FOR NWML AND SWML CORRIDORS

To maximise the benefits of the investment Arena, Parkway, Plas Dwr, GE Life Science required on the SWML, and that Hub). The route will also connect Splott committed at Metro Central, there is also a and Tremorfa to the Metro, areas within need for the complementary development the top 10% of Welsh Index of Multiple of integrated “feeder services” that connect Deprivations (WIMD))xvii. and integrate with the additional SWML services. These are: The full extent of extends west via the “NW Corridor” to #2 Ebbw Valley & Maesteg Lines (RCT) and a potential interchange with the Informed by the development work SWML at . Subject to further undertaken, significant investment is analysis, CVL tram-train operations could required to deliver 4tph Metro frequencies also be extended east from the bay line via on the Ebbw Valley corridor (as is the case Roath dock and tidal sidings onto the relief with the CVL) with additional stations and lines to Cardiff Parkway, Newport or even services to both Newport and Cardiff, and Severn Tunnel Junction. This presents an a spur to Abertillery. There are also opportunity to deliver more rail capacity significant network constraints impacting on the SWML Corridor by avoiding the the ability to increase services on the network constraint through Cardiff Central Maesteg branch to more than 1tph. and to the west.

Delivering enhanced connectivity of the #5 Swansea Bay Urban Area Metro Ebbw Valley, which is facing significant To augment the additional SMWL services economic challenges, to both Cardiff and to West Wales, TfW have initiated the initial especially Newport will help support development of an urban rail metro further development and regeneration in making better use of the Swansea District and around Ebbw Vale itself. Line (SDL) with new stations and direct local services to both Swansea and Neath. #3 Marches Line This will require new infrastructure to Introduction of metro frequency services connect the SDL and main line, an on the Marches line as far as Abergavenny, enhanced Swansea High Street and a with further new stations at places like number of new local stations. where demand justifies. This is important for place like which, There is an opportunity to align this like Ebbw Vale, is dealing with some programme with public sector relocations serious economic challenges. More to town/city centres (eg DVLA) and major commuter services to Pontypool and economic development and regeneration Abergavenny and new stations will also initiatives in Swansea and Neath. The help provide sustainable travel options to Metro will also help support more new developments like Mamhilad urban sustainable and public transport connected village and Sebastopol. residential development, around new stations on this network. As with the CVL, #4 Cardiff Crossrail (and NW Corridor) this investment provides a basis for The Cardiff Crossrail programme will continued development and expansion of upgrade and connect existing a over the next 10 to underutilised rail assets to enable 4tph on 20 years. all the rail lines in Cardiff (e.g. Coryton and City Lines). This will provide much of the city access to high quality and frequent public transport services that integrate with SWML as well as connecting a number of major mixed used and/or brown field developments (e.g. , SUMMARY OF STRATEGIC CASES FOR NWML AND SWML CORRIDORS SUMMARY OF STRATEGIC CASES FOR NWML AND SWML CORRIDORS

North Wales proposals

#6 North Wales Main Line #9 Innovation To bring the NWML up to the same #7 Crewe-Chester-- Whilst not directly related to the NWML standard as the other “main lines” across the Shrewsbury and SWML, TfW is exploring the potential UK, requires a major upgrade in terms of There is pressing need to address capacity to apply different rail standards on other line speed, capacity and electrification. This and reliability for services through Chester corridors in Wales to assess whether is essential to enable delivery of WG journey station; similarly plans for the integration of innovation in rail standard may allow the time and economic ambitions, and to HS2 at Crewe must not disadvantage Welsh development of rail solutions that would integrate with the UK Government’s rail services. not be possible with traditional Heavy Rail. Northern Powerhouse. Key requirements This will, potentially, enable new options for include: The corridor between Chester and North-South connectivity in the west of the Shrewsbury via Wrexham needs country. • Reduced stop main-line intercity enhancement to double track, remove services to reduce journey times level crossings and introduce new stations at Wrexham North and South aligned with new • All stop commuter services between ‘all stop’ commuter services. Llandudno and Crewe/Wrexham and Holyhead and Llandudno #8 Borderlands: Wrexham-Liverpool Junction The poor relation of the Welsh rail network is the Borderlands line. Beyond the • More service from North Wales across contracted 2tph, there is an early need to to Manchester and Leeds. enhance the infrastructure to avoid skip stop, introduce a new station at • New Stations at Holywell and Broughton Industrial Estate and extend services to . Beyond that a major The Welsh Government has also set out enhancement is needed. some journey time ambitions: This will include speed and capacity Llandudno > Crewe 60 minutes upgrades of entire line and more Holyhead > Chester 60 minutes importantly integration of south of to deliver 4tph and direct services In the interim a rolling package of tactical into Liverpool. As important this project measures to upgrade all the lines in North could stimulate a range of development Wales to more easily enable a mix of intercity (especially housing) around stations on the express and all stop commuter line. services (so removing level crossings, single track sections, etc).

SUMMARY OF STRATEGIC CASES FOR NWML AND SWML CORRIDORS SUMMARY OF STRATEGIC CASES FOR NWML AND SWML CORRIDORS

NWML Corridor Priorities

Leeds & Manchester Liverpool Amlwch HS2/NPR Holyhead #8 Warrington

Llandudno

L #6 #6 Bangor Llandudno Rhyl Shotton Chester Jn #9 M HS2

Caernarfon #7

Wrexham Crewe

Blaenau Ffestiniog Betws-y-Coed K

Shrewsbury

illustration, not all stations shown Figure 5 SUMMARY OF STRATEGIC CASES FOR NWML AND SWML CORRIDORS SUMMARY OF STRATEGIC CASES FOR NWML AND SWML CORRIDORS

South East Wales Key facets:

transport commission Three key facets of a response set out by the commission that the Welsh Earlier this year Lord Burns (who is leading Government is supportive of, in principle, the Transport Commission) are: published his emerging conclusionsxviii. There is significant overlap between those • The development of a public emerging findings and the proposals which transport grid across South East the Welsh Government wishes to pursue. It Wales with a mix of integrated is worth restating some of the key finding express rail, local rail and bus from Lord Burns’ executive summary: services which is consistent with the commission’s “network of “Congestion on the M4 is largely a peak- Land use decisions with respect to homes, alternatives”. hours problem, predominantly associated offices and retail parks have contributed to with commuting. A relatively small increase congestion and, on the current trajectory, • Demand management measures, in traffic leads to a disproportionate increase this looks set to continue. At the same including road charging (to more in congestion. It is not a resilient motorway time, the population of the region’s cities fairly apportion the significant and the problems spill over onto the is projected to rise considerably. Without external costs of car use: carbon network, especially during action, this will place additional pressure on emissions, road accidents, air quality incidents. the motorway. and urban sprawl based induced demand). The M4 is largely used for regional, medium- If we are to alleviate congestion, we need to distance travel, with many trips starting or create attractive and viable alternatives for • Planning policy and especially land ending in the cities of Cardiff, Newport and people. Until these exist, it is very difficult to use decisions to encourage and Bristol. Most journeys are over medium solve the problem sustainably. incentivise more transit-oriented or long distances; there are relatively few development. short-distance journeys on the motorway. Of course, the COVID-19 epidemic has radically changed the situation – the Many people do not have good transport question is for how long. Traffic is at a much alternatives to the motorway. The lower level and we expect congestion to be combination of the rail, bus and active travel less problematic while social distancing is in networks do not accommodate the range place. of the journeys that people are undertaking, particularly commutes. In the long term, a substantive and sustained increase in remote working could have All of the rail, bus and active travel networks a meaningful impact on reducing traffic. are offering insufficient services. The However, our view remains that in order individual modes are also poorly integrated, to function efficiently, the region requires in relation to interchange, timetables and additional, non-car transport options” ticketing. This limits the value of each part. There is insufficient regional coordination. SUMMARY OF STRATEGIC CASES FOR NWML AND SWML CORRIDORS SUMMARY OF STRATEGIC CASES FOR NWML AND SWML CORRIDORS Overarching strategic benefits of emerging proposals

Transport cannot exist in isolation of the • Reduced car use can also improve wider economy, so the Welsh Government health outcomes from fewer road and TfW have identified a range of high-level accidents (125,000 each year in the benefits for the various Strategic Cases for UK, 25,000 serious injuries and 1,700 the main rail routes across Wales, including: fatalitiesxx) and improved air quality to reduce the current estimated Economic Benefits 30,000 premature deaths per yearxxi caused by air pollution. • Enhanced connectivity between key economic centres like Swansea, Cardiff Transport System Benefits and Bristol will help create more efficient labour markets and bring forward new • The proposals set out will deliver a more mixed use and housing development flexible and efficient railway, able to around existing and new stations along operate a mix of express and integrated this corridor; this is very much in keeping local commuter services with the Welsh Government’s desire to encourage regeneration and transport • Offering more attractive rail services to oriented development at/near stations more people will significantly improve across the network efficiency of rail operations and reduce subsidy per passenger. • The Welsh Government have previously estimated Transport User Benefits of £2Bn are likely; a figure that is likely to be higher when the full range of schemes set out, and agglomeration and Wider Economic Benefits are included.

Environmental and Wellbeing Benefits

• Given the urgency required to address the climate emergency, these measures provide the radical increase in public transport capacity required to reduce currently very high levels of car use. Across Europe cars are the biggest contributor (even if all electric) to transport carbon emissions (~60%), which is the only sector that has increased its carbon footprint since 1990xix SUMMARY OF STRATEGIC CASES FOR NWML AND SWML CORRIDORS SUMMARY OF STRATEGIC CASES FOR NWML AND SWML CORRIDORS

Transport led economic development and regeneration opportunities

Beyond those higher level benefits, there • The schemes set out will enhance the Swansea Bay and North Wales Projects are number of significant development accessibility of the Nantgarw/Treforest West Wales Projects opportunities and economic activities along Industrial Estate(D) and help bring both the SWML and NWML corridors that forward a major mixed use regeneration • Enhanced intra/regional connectivity will • The Wrexham Gateway(K)xxiv are dependent on, or whose impact can be project including more residential; this help the development of a Life Science regeneration project which includes enhanced through improved rail services augments the relocation of the and Wellbeing Village(H) in Llanelli. academic, commercial and sporting and connectivity all the way from Bristol Department of Work and Pensions This unique facility includes a themes, will benefit from the to Milford Haven and Holyhead to Chester. (DWP) adjacent to the new Metro Health hub comprising enhanced public transport connectivity Some of these are part of the City and stations planned at Nantgarw. of Clinical Delivery & Research Centre; proposed across north Wales and north Growth Deals based around Cardiff Capital a Wellbeing Skills Centre linked to west England. Region, Swansea Bay and North Wales, they • New SWML commuter services and modern clinical practice and service include: a new station at Llanwern will connect delivery; a Wellness Hub comprising • Deeside Industrial Park and Airbus(L) Llanwern/Glan Llyn(E) residential leisure facilities, assisted living and and the wider aerospace cluster will Cardiff Capital Region Projects development to the rest of the region affordable housing. benefit from increased accessibility and and help bring forward further access to a larger pool of labour, • As part of the Cardiff Crossrail there development sites near the station. • Marine(I) will establish through enhancement to the are several major contingent a centre for marine engineering Borderlands line, additional North developments. For example, at Cardiff • The new station in development at focussed on low carbon energy Wales Mainline commuter services Central/Central Quay(A) and Cardiff Cardiff Parkway provide the opportunity combined with research, development and new stations at Deeside Industrial Bay(A) including more residential, for more “mixed use” development at and innovation support. Pembroke Dock Estate and Broughton. hotel, commercial and a potential Higher Hendre Lakes(F)xxii, this site is at the Marine will expand on an energy and Education Institute. There is also the heart of the corridor between Newport engineering cluster attracted to • There are significant regeneration prospect at GE/Forest Farm for a Life and Cardiff which is already a regional world-class natural geography and benefits (as well as rail operations Sciences Innovation Park(B) anchored centre for Compound Semiconductors energy resources, a high skill supply benefits) for the implementation of the by GE and the Wales Genomics Centre. (CS)xxiii (inc. SPTS, Newport Wafer fab, chain, port infrastructure and National comprehensive proposals at and around IQE, Cardiff University) Grid availability. Chester Station(M) • Delivering more commuter service into from • Enhanced connectivity to Cardiff • The Swansea City and Waterfront across the region will help support the Airport/(G) will help support Digital District(J) project, at the heart development of the Newport a major centre for the development of of a wider regeneration initiative, Knowledge Quarter(C) with partners lithium-ion battery and storage includes a 3,500-seat digital arena able including Alacrity, Alacrity Cyber, USW technologies for the automotive sector. to host a range of events and Cyber school and Airbus. There is also British Volt at Bro Tathan has set conferences. The Digital Village and Box an opportunity to consider the out its intent to support up to 4,000 village and Innovation Precinct at re-location of the UK Government’s jobs supported by the UK Government’s University of Wales Trinity Saint David facilities (such as the Patent Office Department for Business Energy provides incubation and co-working and ONS) to a location in Newport and Industrial Strategy (BEI)/UK Battery space for start-ups and small businesses. city centre. Industrialisation Centre. Better transport connectivity from across the wider region will enhance the impact of these developments.

SUMMARY OF STRATEGIC CASES FOR NWML AND SWML CORRIDORS SUMMARY OF STRATEGIC CASES FOR NWML AND SWML CORRIDORS

The funding gap…

In restating the strategic case for rail Whilst any commitment to the funding of rail A more proportionate share of total UK Any UK Government levelling up agenda investment in Wales, we also need to in Wales by the UK Government is welcome, Government investment in Wales over the that the Welsh Government could support acknowledge the lower level of rail for example recent commitment re: Cardiff same period would be of the order of £5Bn has to include a major overhaul in how rail enhancement investment in Wales vs the rest Central and the work re: Great Western if based on population (~5%) or £10Bn, if scheme development, funding and delivery of the UK network. Enhancements improve Mainline Electrification(GWEP), we cannot based on the length of the Wales route is discharged in Wales. The transfer of the the capability, capacity, reliability of the ignore the impact of the long term (~10% of the UK network). As a CVL to the Welsh Government, which has rail network. So, the limited share of such underfunding of enhancement to Wales’ rail comparator, the equivalent Welsh in effect devolved some of the rail network investment in Wales, over a prolonged network. This is impacting Wales’ economic Government investment over the same to Welsh Government, perhaps provides a period, has led to relatively less attractive performance given the known links period is about £1Bn on what, now catalyst. Without significant change very services, attracting fewer passengers leading between connectivity and economic activity, excluding (since March 2020) the Core few of the emerging proposals set out to lower modal share and higher subsidies especially efficient labour markets. Valley Lines (CVL), is a non-devolved area. here are likely to proceed. vs the rest of the UK. This is different from the Operations, Maintenance and Renewal In broad terms, when one includes Crossrail Spend (OMR) which is about maintaining the and HS2 we estimate that across the UK network’s current capability and reliability. between 2001 and 2029 there have or will be, at least £100Bnxxv of UK Government funded rail enhancements. Over the same period, we estimate generously that the total of rail enhancement in Wales funded by UK Government is of the order of £2.2Bn. This figure also includes a Barnett consequential of £755m resulting from an increase in the DfT budget at the 2015 spending review, and the entirety of costs for the electrification of the Severn Tunnel and so a Wales Route based allocation.

SUMMARY OF STRATEGIC CASES FOR NWML AND SWML CORRIDORS SUMMARY OF STRATEGIC CASES FOR NWML AND SWML CORRIDORS

Who we are Better public

transport Set up by the Welsh Government as a not- TfW is building a sustainable transport underpins for-profit company in 2015, Transport for network fundamental to a thriving Welsh Wales (TfW) is driving forward the Welsh economy now and in future. The transfer of sustainable Government’s vision of a high-quality, safe, the Core Valleys Lines railway infrastructure integrated and affordable transport network. from Network Rail to TfW in March 2020 economic was a key milestone and has enabled TfW to A reliable, accessible and low-carbon start building the South Wales Metro. growth and network of which the people of Wales can be proud. Everything TfW does supports the Added to this, since 2018 the Welsh also offers real achievement of Welsh Government policies Government and TfW have also developed and is aligned with the Welsh Government’s strategic business cases for investment in benefits for policy framework as well as the well-being Wales’ rail network. TfW is also working hard goals set out in the Well-being of Future to improve the quality and consistency of the people Generations (Wales) Act 2015. evidence underpinning transport decision- making and investment in Wales. Better public transport underpins sustainable economic growth and also offers real This document summarises the strategic benefits for people, improving access to cases for priority rail schemes in North and employment opportunities and achieving South Wales. stronger integration of education, health and other services.

SUMMARY OF STRATEGIC CASES FOR NWML AND SWML CORRIDORS SUMMARY OF STRATEGIC CASES FOR NWML AND SWML CORRIDORS

Table 1 Summary of schemes and Economic Development Sites. References Rail Schemes Economic Development Sites

#1 South Wales Main Line (SWML) Upgrade A Cardiff Central, Central Quay and Cardiff Bay i https://gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2018-12/the-rail-network-in-wales-case-for-investment.pdf #2 Ebbw Valley And Maesteg Lines Upgrade B GE Life Science Innovation Park ii https://gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2019-09/a-railway-for-wales-the-case-for-devolution.pdf #3 Marches Line Upgrade C Newport Knowledge Quarter iii https://gov.wales/written-statement-principles-public-transport-connectivity #4 Cardiff Crossrail (& NW Corridor D Nabtgarw/Treforest Industrial Estate iv https://gov.wales/south-east-wales-transport-commission #5 Swansea Bay Urban Area Rail Metro E Llanwern/Glan Llyn v https://www.cardiff.gov.uk/ENG/resident/Parking-roads-and-travel/transport-policies-plans/transport-white-paper/Documents/White%20 #6 North Wales Main Line (NWML) Upgrade F Hendre Lakes/Cardiff Parkway Paper%20for%20Cardiff%20Transport%202019.pdf #7 Crewe-Chester-Wrexham-Shewsbury G /St Athan Business Park vi Stats Wales Balanced GVA B Approach https://statswales.gov.wales/Catalogue/Business-Economy-and-Labour-Market/Regional-Accounts/Gross- Value-Added-GDP/gva-by-welshnuts3areas-year #8 Borderlands: Wrexham-Liverpool H Life Science and Wellbeing Village vii https://www.gov.uk/government/news/welsh-secretary-cross-border-working-can-be-the-catalyst-to-wales-future-prosperity #9 Innovation I Pembroke Dock Marine viii https://www.cardiff.ac.uk/research/impact-and-innovation/quality-and-performance/ref-2014 J Swansea City and Waterfront District ix https://www.cardiffcapitalregion.wales/

K Wrexham Gateway x https://www.cardiff.ac.uk/news/view/744812-university-welcomes-38m-compound-semiconductor-deal

L Deeside Industrial Park and Airbus xi http://www.swanseabaycitydeal.wales

M Chester Station xii http://www.greengauge21.net/wp-content/uploads/Beyond_HS2WEB.pdf

xiii https://transportforthenorth.com/onenorth/ https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-49321579

xiv https://www.gov.uk/government/news/transformative-north-wales-growth-deal-signed

xv https://northwaleseab.co.uk/

xvi https://westerngatewaystb.org.uk/

xvii https://statswales.gov.wales/Catalogue/Community-Safety-and-Social-Inclusion/Welsh-Index-of-Multiple-Deprivation/WIMD-2019/ localauthorityanalysis

xviii https://gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2020-07/emerging-conclusions.pdf

xix https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/headlines/society/20190313STO31218/co2-emissions-from-cars-facts-and-figures-infographics

xx https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/ file/533293/rrcgb-main-results-2015.pdf

xxi https://www.kcl.ac.uk/news/uk-air-pollution-could-cause-36000-deaths-a-year

xxii https://www.cardiffhendrelakes.com/

xxiii https://csconnected.com/

xxiv https://gov.wales/land-acquisition-wrexham-gateway-moves-forward

xxv Annual efficiency and finance assessment of Network Rail 2018-19 - 26 July 2019, https://www.orr.gov.uk/media/17415/download https://www. crossrail.co.uk/about-us/funding https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/crossrail-annual-update-2020 https://www.networkrail.co.uk/who-we- are/publications-and-resources/our-delivery-plan-for-2019- SUMMARY OF STRATEGIC CASES FOR NWML AND SWML CORRIDORS

Version 1 23 Sep 2020

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