SUMMARY OF STRATEGIC CASES FOR NWML AND SWML CORRIDORS Mainline railway enhancement requirements September 2020 SUMMARY OF STRATEGIC CASES FOR NWML AND SWML CORRIDORS SUMMARY OF STRATEGIC CASES FOR NWML AND SWML CORRIDORS Context Since 2018, the Welsh Government (WG) • The emerging findings of the South In addition to the strategic transport More specifically, the Welsh and Transport for Wales (TfW) have East Wales Transport Commission schemes, examples of the most Government’s view is that genuine progressed further work to develop the (SEWTC))iv . significant transport related economic ‘levelling up’ cannot simply mean a Strategic Cases for investment in Wales’ rail This works sets out the importance development projects in progress or in sprinkling of new, ad hoc rail projects network. This paper presents a summary of significant further investment along planning across Wales are also set out. decided in Whitehall, it has to be part of a of those developing cases, drawing upon a the South Wales Main Line (SWML) strategic approach to promoting growth wide body of work, including: corridor (via more capacity, additional Whilst there are a range of broader in all parts of the UK. Neither can it just be services and stations) to provide the policy positions underpinning the need about equality of access – merely the • 2018, The Case for Investment (and backbone of an integrated public for more investment in public transport in ability to ‘bid in’ to new funding sources - supporting Programme Strategic transport networkacross the whole of Wales, the most pressing is the climate it must be about outcomes and a genuine Outline Cases (PSOCs)i South Wales. emergency. We all need to work towards attempt to narrow the real world gap in Identified over£2Bn transport user decarbonising our transport systems and terms of rail infrastructure investment benefits that could be realised across • Further formal scheme and business to reduce our car dependency which, between Wales and the rest of the UK to Wales with a similar size capital investment case development work undertaken by pre-Covid, accounted for over 80% of support increasing economic growth and programme; this figure would be higher TfW and regional partners related to commuting mode share. This is in line prosperity. if the full range of schemes set out projects like the Swansea Bay Metro, with our broader environmental and well- below, and Wider Economic Benefits, are North Wales Metro, Ebbw Vale being objectives and goes beyond purely This requires a degree of positive considered. frequency enhancement, Maesteg transport interventions. discrimination to counter the inbuilt frequency and Cardiff NW Corridor/ advantages of areas like the Southeast • 2019, A Railway for Walesii iii Cardiff Crossrailvv. The Welsh Government welcomes the of England. ‘Levelling up’ has to be This sets out the case for devolution of rail fact that the UK Government is now something which meaningfully powers, current plans, wider well-being • Network Rail has also been developing exploring the opportunity to ”level up” rail involves devolved governments in the considerations and ambitions for future Strategic Outline Cases (SOCs) under investment across the UK and notes that design and governance of its approach. rail development and innovation across guidance from the Department the success of the City and Growth Deals Wales. This was supported by a statement for Transport (DfT) for schemes across Wales are to varying extents setting out the Welsh Government’s key including: Relief Line Upgrade, North dependant on complementary service and journey time aspirations Wales Mainline improvements, and improvements to rail connectivity, both Swansea Cardiff journey times. Whilst within and to/from Wales. welcome,these fall some way short of the Welsh Government’s strategic ambition for the rail network in Wales. © Crown copyright 2019 978-1-80082-427-0 Mae’r ddogfen yma hefyd ar gael yn Gymraeg SUMMARY OF STRATEGIC CASES FOR NWML AND SWML CORRIDORS SUMMARY OF STRATEGIC CASES FOR NWML AND SWML CORRIDORS Strategic Commuting overview Changes in commuting mode in Wales, 2003-20178 As was set out in the 2018 Case for The development of strategic cases 2003-2017 Mode 2017 Percentage change in use of each mode Investment, investment in transport undertaken by WG and TfW has also Mode Share services and infrastructure is included extensive interaction with key and change In average journey time necessary to deliver the Welsh stakeholders (for example business Government’s (WG) economic and groups like CBI, Growth Track 360, North Car well-being ambitions. Wales Economic Ambition Board; Health +9% +4 bodies, Academia, Local Authorities, City 81% mins • To increase Wales’ levels of and Growth Deals) who have all shaped productivity and improve its Gross and support the emerging proposals. Value Add (GVA) per capita (which is Walk only 73% of UK averagevii) Covid will clearly impact future transport planning. However, even with more local -18% +5 • and to deliver its obligations on and home working, we still expect post 8% mins decarbonisation, sustainability Covid that there will be a need for more and well-being. public transport given the very high levels of pre-Covid car use (~80% Bus This is even more important given the commuting mode share). The +7 -7% scale and potential economic impact of opportunity we have is to deliver more 4% mins rail schemes being developed elsewhere public transport over time and in the UK (especially HS2 which has the encourage more development in places potential to negatively impact the Welsh that can be accessed by public transport - economy without further transport so called “Transit-Oriented Train interventions). Development” (TOD). This is vital, given +212% +7 that today many jobs, retail and public 4% mins Our analysis is clear that a programme of services are located in places that can investment in rail infrastructure in Wales only be accessed using a car. These are is required to support a stronger, key considerations in the new Wales Cycle inclusive and more equitable economy, Transport Strategy, which is in +4 delivering prosperity for all by connecting development, and the National +46% people, communities and businesses to Development Framework. 2% mins jobs, services and markets. Car share Driver Passenger Percentage change in numbers of car drivers +24% -51% and can passengers from 2003 to 2017 Sometimes driver Sometimes passenger -21% Figure 1 Commuting Mode share changes in Wales (Senedd Research) SUMMARY OF STRATEGIC CASES FOR NWML AND SWML CORRIDORS SUMMARY OF STRATEGIC CASES FOR NWML AND SWML CORRIDORS South Wales In the south, Cardiff, with its extensive rail When one considers the proximity of links to surrounding towns, forms a Bristol/Bath this creates an economic We all need to substantial city region of 1.5 million people, as subregion with a population of over 3 million does Swansea to a lesser extent with a wider people that has major agglomeration city region population of over 0.7 million potential across multiple industries work toward (Figure 2) . The city of Cardiff itself is now including financial and professional nearly 370,000 having grown from 310,000 services, semiconductors, biotechnology, decarbonising in 2001 and plays a pivotal role in the Welsh and TV/Film production. economy. our transport West Wales/ Bristol systems and to Swansea Bay Region 1 million 0.7 million 1.5 million reduce our car Swansea Newport Bristol 0.25m 0.35m 0.15m 0.45m dependency. Figure 2 GWML/SWML serves over 3M from Bristol to Swansea Improving the links and reducing journey Its role was crucial in the recent Cardiff times between the Swansea Bay City Capital Regionix City Deal agreement to Region, the Cardiff Capital City Region, develop a compound semiconductor Bristol, London and Heathrow, as set out in clusterx in the region. 2017 by the Office of the Secretary of State for Walesvii, will support further economic The Swansea Bay City Region needs to development opportunities. nurture and grow hi-tech companies – something set out in the Swansea Bay City The role of Wales’ leading higher Dealxi. education institutions and their impact on the national economy should also be The deal includes a range of projects based noted; Cardiff University for example is on key themes of Economic Acceleration, one of the UKs leading research Life Science and Well-being, Energy, and universities being ranked in the top five in Smart Manufacturing; it also includes a the last formal research excellence region wide initiative to support innovation assessment in 2014viii. and low carbon growth. SUMMARY OF STRATEGIC CASES FOR NWML AND SWML CORRIDORS SUMMARY OF STRATEGIC CASES FOR NWML AND SWML CORRIDORS Primary transport issues in South Wales • Much of east Cardiff and Newport (an Below represents a summary of the key urban population of over 300,000) transport issues that have been identified is poorly served by rail and integrated through the body of work undertaken in regional public transport, contributing South Wales in the last few years: to more car use, congestion and air quality issues; especially in urban areas • Rail journey times from west Wales and on the M4 to Bristol/London are poor; much of the South Wales main line (SWML) is • The lack of a dedicated local commuter a 90mph railway or less vs 125mph rail service for Swansea Bay’s urban east of Bristol Parkway (figure 3); this area (~300, 000 pop.), and the constrains demand and encourages alignment of both SWML and Swansea more car usage on already congested District Line (SDL) through Swansea roads, with consequential air quality and Neath Port Talbot (NPT) means that impacts; Cardiff is also the worst rail rail services are infrequent and relatively connected major city in the UKxii in indirect when compared with the road respect of direct services to other network leading to congestion and air major UK cities quality issues • Low service frequency and • Key stakeholders have reported that overcrowding from Cardiff to Bristol rail patronage from the west of the Temple Meads – 2tph.