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Volcanogenic Floods in Iceland: an Assessment of Hazards and Risks at Öræfajökull and on the Markarfljót Outwash Plain

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Volcanogenic Floods in Iceland: an Assessment of Hazards and Risks at Öræfajökull and on the Markarfljót Outwash Plain Volcanogenic floods in Iceland An assessment of hazards and risks at Öræfajökull and on the Markarfljót outwash plain Volcanogenic floods in Iceland An assessment of hazards and risks at Öræfajökull and on the Markarfljót outwash plain Edited by Emmanuel Pagneux, Magnús T. Gudmundsson, Sigrún Karlsdóttir and Matthew J. Roberts Cover design: IMO Cover photo: Glacial outburst flood caused by the summit eruption of Eyjafjallajökull Volcano on April 14 2010 © Haukur Hlíðkvist Ómarsson Layout: IMO All rights reserved No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in, or introduced into a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise) without prior written permission from the publishers (Address information below). ISBN 978-9979-9975-7-3 © Icelandic Meteorological Office (IMO) | Institute of Earth Sciences, University of Iceland (IES-UI) | National Commissioner of the Icelandic Police, Department of Civil Protection and Emergency Management (NCIP-DCPEM), 2015 Icelandic Meteorological Office Bústaðavegur 7–9, 108 Reykjavik, Iceland Web: en.vedur.is Tel.: +354 522 6000 Institute of Earth Sciences, University of Iceland Sturlugata 7, 101 Reykjavik, Iceland Web: earthice.hi.is Tel.: +354 525 4492 Department of Civil Protection and Emergency Management, National Commissioner of the Icelandic Police Skúlagata 21, 101 Reykjavik, Iceland Web: almannavarnir.is Tel.: +354 444 2500 Printed in Iceland by Svansprent Paper Munken Polar 120/240 gsm Recommended citations Book: Pagneux, E., Gudmundsson, M. T., Karlsdóttir, S., & Roberts, M. J. (Eds.) (2015). Volcanogenic floods in Iceland: An assessment of hazards and risks at Öræfajökull and on the Markarfljót outwash plain. Reykjavík: IMO, IES-UI, NCIP-DCPEM. Individual chapters (example): Roberts, M. J., & Gudmundsson, M. T. (2015). Öræfajökull Volcano: Geology and historical floods. In E. Pagneux, M. T. Gudmundsson, S. Karlsdóttir, & M. J. Roberts (Eds.), Volcanogenic floods in Iceland: An assessment of hazards and risks at Öræfajökull and on the Markarfljót outwash plain (pp. 17–44). Reykjavík: IMO, IES-UI, NCIP-DCPEM. Project Board Emmanuel Pagneux Icelandic Meteorological Office, Process and Research Division Magnús T. Gudmundsson Nordic Volcanological Center, Institute of Earth Sciences, University of Iceland Matthew J. Roberts Icelandic Meteorological Office, Warnings and Forecasting Division Sigrún Karlsdóttir Icelandic Meteorological Office, Dir. General Office Ágúst Gunnar Gylfason National Commissioner of the Icelandic Police, Department of Civil Protection and Emergency Management, Einar Hafliðason Icelandic Road and Coastal Administration Helgi Jóhannesson National Power Company Trausti Jónsson Icelandic Meteorological Office Editorial board Emmanuel Pagneux Icelandic Meteorological Office, Process and Research Division Magnús T. Gudmundsson Nordic Volcanological Center, Institute of Earth Sciences, University of Iceland Matthew J. Roberts Icelandic Meteorological Office, Warnings and Forecasting Division Sigrún Karlsdóttir Icelandic Meteorological Office, Dir. General Office Authors Eiríkur Gíslason Icelandic Meteorological Office, Process and Research Division Magnús T. Gudmundsson Nordic Volcanological Center, Institute of Earth Sciences, University of Iceland Ásdís Helgadóttir Icelandic Meteorological Office, Process and Research Division Þórdís Högnadóttir Nordic Volcanological Center, Institute of Earth Sciences, University of Iceland Esther H. Jensen Icelandic Meteorological Office, Process and Research Division Sigrún Karlsdóttir Icelandic Meteorological Office, Dir. General Office Eyjólfur Magnússon Nordic Volcanological Center, Institute of Earth Sciences, University of Iceland Emmanuel Pagneux Icelandic Meteorological Office, Process and Research Division Viðir Reynisson South Iceland Police, General Division Matthew J. Roberts Icelandic Meteorological Office, Warnings and Forecasting Division Project funding The project was funded by the Icelandic Avalanche and Landslide Fund, the National Power Company, and the Icelandic Road and Coastal Administration. Acknowledgements The Editorial Board gratefully acknowledges the scholars and experts below who reviewed the book chapters and provided valuable feedback to their authors. Dr. Stéphanie Defossez Associate Professor. University Montpellier 3, School of Human and Environmental Sciences, France Dr. Kristín M. Hákonardóttir Fluid dynamics, Verkís Consulting Engineers, Iceland Trausti Jónsson, Msc. Senior scientist, risk expert at Icelandic Meteorological Office Pr. Frédéric Leone University Montpellier 3, School of Human and Environmental Sciences, France Dr. Philip Marren Senior lecturer in physical Geography, University of Chester, Geography and Development Studies, UK Pr. Andrew J. Russell Newcastle University, School of Geography, Politics and Sociology, UK Dr. Haraldur Sigþórsson Head of Security Planning Department, Facilitation and Coordination Division, Icelandic Transport Authority Dr. Tómas Jóhannesson Senior scientist, glaciological research at Icelandic Meteorological Office Dr. Chris Waythomas Project chief at USGS, Water Resources Division program on Hydrologic Hazards and Processes at Alaska Volcano Observatory, USA TABLE OF CONTENTS I. Volcanogenic floods in Iceland: An exploration of hazards and risks .................................... 7 Emmanuel Pagneux, Sigrún Karlsdóttir, Magnús T. Gudmundsson, Matthew J. Roberts, and Viðir Reynisson II. Öræfajökull Volcano: Geology and historical floods .......................................................... 17 Matthew J. Roberts and Magnús T. Gudmundsson III. Öræfajökull Volcano: Eruption melting scenarios ............................................................. 45 Magnús T. Gudmundsson, Þórdís Högnadóttir, and Eyjólfur Magnússon IV. Öræfajökull Volcano: Numerical simulations of eruption-induced jökulhlaups using the SAMOS flow model ................................................................................................................. 73 Ásdís Helgadóttir, Emmanuel Pagneux, Matthew J. Roberts, Esther H. Jensen, and Eiríkur Gíslason V. Öræfi district and Markarfljót outwash plain: Rating of flood hazards ........................... 101 Emmanuel Pagneux and Matthew J. Roberts VI. Öræfi district and Markarfljót outwash plain: Spatio-temporal patterns in population exposure to volcanogenic floods ............................................................................................ 123 Emmanuel Pagneux VII. Öræfajökull: Evacuation time modelling of areas prone to volcanogenic floods ........... 141 Emmanuel Pagneux I. VOLCANOGENIC FLOODS IN ICELAND: AN EXPLORATION OF HAZARDS AND RISKS Emmanuel Pagneux *, Sigrún Karlsdóttir *, Magnús T. Gudmundsson **, Matthew J. Roberts * and Viðir Reynisson *** 1 * Icelandic Meteorological Office ** Nordic Volcanological Centre, Institute of Earth Sciences, University of Iceland *** National Commissioner of the Icelandic Police, Department of Civil Protection and Emergency Management 1. Introduction where the recurrence time of eruptions is about 50 years. The largest of these eruptions This publication presents the results from an have caused rapidly rising floods with a exploratory project on the risk assessment of maximum discharge 100–300,000 m3/s (e.g. glacial outburst floods (jökulhlaups) caused Tómasson, 1996; Larsen, 2000; Elíasson et by volcanic eruptions in Iceland. Such floods al., 2006). result from the interaction of hot freshly The largest hazard and risk to life in erupted lava, tephra or hot gases with glacier volcanogenic floods occurs on populated ice and snow on the slopes of volcanoes. slopes of large, steep-sided ice-clad Jökulhlaups related to volcanic activity, volcanoes. This particular environment is caused both directly by volcanic eruptions found in Iceland on the foothills of and indirectly through geothermal activity, Eyjafjallajökull, Snæfellsjökull and Öræfa- are one of the main volcanogenic hazards in jökull volcanoes. The most severe events Iceland (Gudmundsson et al., 2008). Over have occurred at Öræfajökull, which erupted half of all Icelandic eruptions occur in ice in 1362 and 1727. On both occasions the covered volcanoes, resulting either directly or eruptions and the associated floods lead to indirectly in jökulhlaups (Larsen et al., 1998; destruction, devastation and loss of life Larsen, 2002). The magnitude and frequency (Thorarinsson, 1958). In the last 20 years, of these events is variable. During the 19th volcanic unrest has resulted in several and first half of the 20th century, major jökulhlaups that have caused significant jökulhlaups were frequent, not least due to damage, including Vatnajökull in 1996 conditions at Grímsvötn, the most active (Haraldsson, 1997; Björnsson, 2003) and volcano. In Grímsvötn, a large, geothermally Eyjafjallajökull in 2010 (Þorkelsson, 2012; sustained subglacial lake issued periodic Magnússon et al., 2012; Snorrason et al., floods with peak discharges of tens of 2012). As half of the Icelandic volcanic thousands of cubic meters per second about systems considered active in the Holocene once every 10 years, with some of these period are covered by ice (Figure I-1), and events being directly caused by eruptions despite an expected reduction in ice cover due (e.g. Björnsson, 2003). A source of truly to climate change (Jóhannesson et al., 2012), catastrophic jökulhlaups throughout settle- the threat posed by volcanogenic floods will ment history has been
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