Commercial Aviation Coordinating Commission

Meeting #2 January 9, 2020 SeaTac Airport Agenda

• Updates and Adoption of Charter • Briefing: Puget Sound Regional Council Aviation Baseline Study • Clarifying the Objective - Trends and Constraints • What is possible – Opportunities and Solution Sets • Working Lunch • What is our strategy - A sustainable and resilient future • Technical Working Group breakouts • Next Steps

2 Updates

• Charter has been updated to reflect Commission recommendations  Added additional language from establishing legislation  Added FAA definition of a primary airport  Adoption of Charter

3 Updates • Response from Joint Base Lewis-McChord  “McChord Airfield isn't an option for commercial cargo (service) based on: - Runway limitations - Scope of global airlift mission based from that location - Lack of 'slack' (available) hangar and taxiway capacity - Existing clear zone issues (which DoD can indemnify itself for but not for commercial purposes) - Surrounding community concerns about potentially increasing air and ground traffic in the already-congested area - Requirements for environmental review based on non-military use of the facilities - Existing land-use constraints on JBLM land (Reversionary Clause with Pierce County which stipulates the land can only be used for military purposes) - Discussed with Air Force which does not support this course of action (no benefits to military mission; only potentially drawbacks)”  Similar response provided to Congressman Smith’s office.  U.S. Rep Denny Heck editorial in the The News Tribune was also not supportive of JBLM as an option.  Recommendation: Remove JBLM as a possible siting option for commercial service.

4 Creating the Public Involvement Program

• The work of the CACC is of interest to diverse audiences and stakeholders - Different areas of interest - Different levels of technical understanding - Different languages and cultures • The public involvement program should use many types of communication tools to engage all audience and stakeholders in a way that is meaningful to them • The Public Involvement Plan will be our roadmap to achieving meaningful engagement

5 Proposed Public Involvement Plan Goals

Goals:

• Provide a logical and factual framework for understanding the issues that must be addressed by the CACC and for being informed of the decisions made.

• Provide meaningful ways for people who will want to be included and provide input to the CACC.

• Assure that major stakeholders, such as local governments, the aviation industry, airports, and regional planning agencies have timely information to ensure meaningful input.

The DRAFT Public Involvement Plan will be discussed at the next CACC meeting.

6 Puget Sound Regional Council Aviation Baseline Study

7 Our Legislative Direction - SSB 5370

• The legislature seeks to identify a location for a new primary commercial aviation facility in Washington, taking into consideration the data and conclusions of appropriate air traffic studies, community representatives, and industry experts.

• Options for a new primary commercial aviation facility in Washington may include expansion of an existing airport facility.

• The state commercial aviation coordinating commission will review existing data and conduct research to determine Washington's long-range commercial aviation facility needs and the recommended site for a new primary commercial aviation facility.

• Recommendations to the legislature on future Washington state long-range commercial aviation facility needs including possible additional aviation facilities or expansion of current aviation facilities… to meet anticipated commercial aviation, general aviation, and air cargo demands.

8 Today’s Focus of Discussion

• Provide input -> finalize initial Airport Site Selection Factors • Discuss initial concept for future airport(s) – Number of Airports – Airport Sizes/Roles – High-level Strategy/Phases • Discuss adding/removing potential airport sites on the list • Discuss goals for Technology, Market and Environment uncertainties

9 Proposed Airport Site Selection Factors

10 Proposed Airport Site Selection Factors • Available Land: A supplemental airport would require 1,000-2,000 acres, and a replacement, or more like a SeaTac-equivalent sized airport could require as much as 4,600 acres. • Existing Facilities: Runway length, available land on one or both ends of the runway, adequate space to add a runway. • Environmental Constraints: Known concerns or protections for habitat and species, wetlands, weather patterns and similar topics. • Proximity to Population Centers: Travel time calculations that demonstrate good access for citizens. • Airport Sponsor: Governance; Local government commitment for both development and operation, and liaison with the public, local governments, industry and others. *Airspace deferred item TBD at a later date.

11 FAA Siting Framework • CACC recommendations should align with FAA requirements – FAA methodology is dependent on existing airport or new greenfield site • Existing airport -> Update airport master plan • New site -> Feasibility Study – FAA Site Evaluation Criteria • Operational Capability – the site should provide the operational capability necessary to serve the defined role of the airport and the needs of its users. • Capacity Potential – If the new airport is needed to provide additional capacity, the capability of the site in providing long-term capacity growth is important. • Ground Access – An important factor is the ability of the users to get to and from the airport easily and in a timely manner. • Development Costs – Simple cost estimates are useful in determining the financial feasibility of building a new airport. • Environmental Consequences – The potential environmental impacts associated with a new site may be critical to gaining approval.

12 Defining the Challenge

13 Defining the Challenge - Projected Growth • Demand is increasing for commercial service, air cargo and general aviation • The fastest aviation growth region is Puget Sound (King, Pierce, Snohomish, Kitsap, Thurston counties) • Some aspects of aviation in the region are nearing capacity • Measures of Capacity: – Commercial Aircraft Operations (take-offs and landings) – Passenger Enplanements – Air Cargo sorting facility square footage – Air Cargo aircraft parking – General Aviation storage (hangars)

14 Defining the Challenge - Growth Projections

• Growth over the next 20 years • Top five counties all exceed statewide growth projections • Four of the five fastest growing counties are in the Puget Sound region

2020 2040 State 7,065,384 7,920,676 855,292 12.11% 1 King 2,110,642 2,439,025 328,383 15.56% 2 Snohomish 766,672 905,221 138,549 18.07% 3 Pierce 819,122 927,797 108,675 13.27% 4 Clark 472,573 540,963 68,390 14.47% 5 Thurston 266,796 312,061 45,265 16.97% 12 Kitsap 246,554 255,945 9,391 3.81%

*Source: WA State Office of Financial Management; High, Medium and Low estimates available - Low-estimate numbers displayed 15 Defining the Challenge - Passengers

• The commission discussed the definition CY 18 Airport Name of primary commercial. The updated Enplanements Seattle-Tacoma charter reflects the FAA definition of a International 24,024,908 primary airport. Spokane International 1,872,781 Tri-Cities 395,348 – Commercial service airports which are: “publicly Bellingham International 368,186 owned airports that have at least 2,500 Yakima Air passenger boardings each calendar year…” Terminal/McAllister Field 69,510

Pullman/Moscow – Primary airports are “Commercial Service Regional 66,699 Airports that have more than 10,000 passenger Pangborn Memorial 64,528 boardings each year.” Walla Walla Regional 49,527 Boeing Field/King The minimum objective is to identify a single County International 18,586 airport capable of 10,000 annual commercial Friday Harbor 15,079 Orcas Island 10,101

service passenger enplanements. Snohomish County (Paine Field) 3,037

16 Defining the Challenge - Passengers

PSRC Baseline Study future forecast

17 Defining the Challenge - Passengers

• Dissecting the Capacity Gap – Growing capacity gap over time. – Future gap in 2050? • SeaTac 2018 enplanements = 24,024,908 • 2050 gap estimated between 22 and 27 million enplanements • Future gap the equivalent of SeaTac demand today • Another SeaTac size airport? • Will this one airport fulfill the capacity gap? – Do we plan to meet forecasted demand?

18 Defining the Challenge – Air Cargo

• Air Cargo volume in the region is projected to more than double. • Cargo sorting building square footage needed to accommodate volume. • Sorting building capacity gap.

• Factors influencing cargo capacity – Aircraft apron parking (airside) – Truck access (landside) – Cargo sorting building sqft (landside)

19 Defining the Challenge – General Aviation

• General Aviation capacity best measured by availability of aircraft storage; hangars and tie-downs.

• Washington Aviation System Plan (2017) captured current and future aircraft storage needs.

• WSDOT Aviation will survey airports to collect updated storage information.

20 Exploring Other Regions

21 Similar Airport Systems PSRC Baseline Study Data

22 Comparing Regions

• Data Collected from Nine No. of PASSENGER METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREA POPULATION AIRPORTS Airports ENPLANEMENTS Regions Atlanta Metro 5,949,951 ATL 51,865,797 Total 1 51,865,797 Los Angeles-Long Beach- Anaheim 13,353,907 LAX 37,109,094 • Average split of enplanements SNA 4,768,202 between flagship and satellite BUR 1,940,618 LGB 1,589,801 airports ONT 1,931,653 Total 5 47,339,368 Chicago- Naperville-Elgin 9,533,040 ORD 28,154,046 70% Flagship /30% Satellites MDW 10,606,091 Total 2 38,760,137 Dallas-Fort Worth- Arlington 7,399,662 DFW 25,108,983 • Highest enplanement levels: DAL 7,519,288 – Atlanta 51,865,797 Total 2 32,628,271 – LAX 37,109,094 Houston-The Woodlands- Sugar Land 6,892,427 IAH 14,201,264 HOU 6,244,203 – Chicago O’Hare 28,154,046 Total 2 20,445,467 – Dallas-Ft Worth 25,108,983 Washington- Arlington- Alexandria 6,216,589 DCA 7,993,630 IAD 8,153,655 Total 2 16,147,285 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm 6,158,824 MIA 19,167,117 Beach FLL 15,147,017 PBI 3,008,050 Total 3 37,322,184 Boston-Cambridge- Newton 4,836,531 BOS 17,373,525 PVD 1,490,993 Total 2 18,864,518 Seattle 4,488,800 SEA 24,024,908 Total 1 24,024,908

23 Comparing Regions

1 Airport 5 Airports 2 Airports 2 Airports 2 Airports 2 Airports 3 Airports 2 Airports 1 Airport

24 What is Possible in Washington State?

25 Strategies

Strategies to consider:

• One very large SeaTac-size airport

• One or more existing airports, expanded and improved to provide commercial and freight service

• Expanding air service and air cargo capabilities to more locations across the state

• Incorporating aviation innovation into long- term strategies

• Providing recommendations for GA aircraft storage

• A combination of these

26 Phasing

• The capacity gap starts small and builds over time • Solutions could be implemented in phases • The ‘primary commercial aviation facility’ could be a long-range outcome with other airport improvements in the near-term, or vice-versa • Phasing might include a resilient, sustainable strategy as part of the Commission’s recommendation

27 Existing Airport Possibilities

Example: Bremerton National Airport

• Option 1: Retain Current Runway Dimensions: 6,000 ft. x 150 ft. – Can accommodate smaller regional airlines (~80 seats) such as: • CRJ700 with operators such as Skywest • Q400 with operators such as Horizon – Runway length marginal for commercial flights beyond 1,000 nautical miles

• Option 2: Extend Runway to ~7,000 to 7,500 ft. – Could accommodate most regional jets (80-100 seats) – Some smaller mainline airliners (B737, A320,etc.) at ~70% Maximum Takeoff Weight (MTOW)

28 Possible Carriers and Destinations

Destinations possible with regional Examples of Possible Air Carriers: aircraft service: – Portland, OR – Los Angeles, CA – Palm Springs, CA – Spokane, WA – San Francisco, CA – Los Vegas, NV – Bozeman, MT – Denver, CO – Phoenix, AZ

29 Existing Airport Possibilities

Example: Bremerton National Airport

• Option 3: Extend current 6,000 ft. runway to ~9,900 ft. – This will accommodate the most critical aircraft at maximum range and at maximum takeoff weight (~175 seats: 737-900ER) – Would accommodate all regional aircraft as well as a majority of domestic narrow-body airliners • Boeing 737 Family • Airbus A318, A319, A320, and A321 – Possibility to open up a wide range of commercial service • Coast to coast travel • Hawaiian Islands • Possibility of international destinations

30 Possible Carriers and Destinations

Destinations possible with larger Examples of Possible Air Carriers: critical aircraft capability – Chicago, IL – Los Angeles, CA – Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN – Detroit, MI – Honolulu, HI – San Antonio, TX – New York City – Washington, DC – Boston, MA

31 Similar Size Airport Example

John Wayne Airport-Orange County Airport • Located in the Los Angeles, CA metro area – Population: 13.1 Million – Second busiest single runway airport in the U.S. – Runway Length: 5,701 ft. • Enplanements: – 2018: 5,201,642 – 2017: 5,082,716 • 30+ Destinations served by the following carriers – Alaska Airlines – American Airlines – Delta Airlines/Delta Connection – Frontier Airlines – JetSuite John Wayne Airport – Southwest Airlines covers 504 acres – United Airlines/United Express – WestJet

32 Similar Size Airport Example

Dallas Love Field • Located in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metro Area – Population: 7.5 Million – Main Runways are 8,800 ft. and 7,752 ft. in length • Enplanements: – 2018: 8,011,221 – 2017: 7,593,361 • 62 non-stop destinations served by the following carriers – Southwest Airlines – Alaska Airlines Dallas- Love Field Airport – Delta Airlines covers 1,300 acres – Advanced Air

33 Electric Aircraft Forecast

• Although development and certification are uncertain, electric aviation could play a dramatic role in transforming air travel. • Commercial service ‘Hub’ airports could be minimized if local GA airports become a viable option.

“The Challenges and Benefits of Electrification of Aircraft” - Atkins

34 Effects of Emerging Technology

• The emergence of electric aircraft, unmanned, and autonomous technology will shape airport design in the future – These new aircraft will potentially operate out of airports with 3000 feet or more of runway

 70 out of 135 total airports in Washington state have at least 3000 feet of runway

 Currently 60 of those do not have commercial air service

 Many are located in rural areas

 Vertical Takeoff and Landing Aircraft will need even less infrastructure to operate – Lower operational costs may open up new markets and service locations – Could be operated from non-hub airports to other non-hub airports

35 Washington Commercial Service Airports

36 Potential Electric Aviation Airports

37 Getting to Six

Creating a List of Possible Solutions

38 Airports Identified Through Previous Studies

• Central Pierce County (adjacent Thun Field)

• Olympia (Black Lake area)

• Arlington

• McChord Field

• Paine Field

• Bremerton National

39 ‘Flight Plan’ Expanded List “Fourteen airports were identified as candidates for further analysis:”

Airport Runways Acreage Arlington Municipal Airport 5332’ 1200 Auburn Municipal Airport 3400’ 111 Bellingham International 6700’ 1200 Boeing Field (King County Airport) 10007‘ 594 Bremerton National 6000’ 1172 McChord Air Force Base 10108’ 3000 Moses Lake Airport (Grant County) 13503’ and 10000’ 4700 Olympia Airport 5500’ 1385 Paine Field (Snohomish County Airport) 9010' 1250 Port Angeles Airport (Fairchild International) 6347' 800 Renton Municipal Airport 5382' 170 Seattle-Tacoma International Airport 11900', 9426' and 8500' 2500 Skagit/Bayview Airport 5478' 761 Tacoma Narrows Airport 5002' 568

Minimum recommendation stated in the ‘Flight Plan’ are 1,000 acres and 7,000’ runway

Questions to consider: • Can more land be acquired? • Can the runway be extended?

40 ‘Flight Plan’ Expanded List

• A quick review of these sites by WSDOT Aviation reveals the following preliminary assessment of the airports identified in the Flight Plan for the purposes of a PRIMARY AIRPORT only. • Several of these airports could fulfill other roles.

Airport Runways Acreage Concerns Arlington Municipal Airport 5332’ 1200 North Seattle, Nearing Capacity, Runway length Auburn Municipal Airport 3400’ 111 Runway length, acreage, available off-airport land Bellingham International 6700’ 1200 Proximity to population Boeing Field (King County Airport) 10007‘ 594 Acreage, available off-airport land Bremerton National 6000’ 1172 Runway length McChord Air Force Base 10108’ 3000 Military use Moses Lake Airport (Grant County) 13503’ and 10000’ 4700 Proximity to population Olympia Airport 5500’ 1385 Runway length, Environmental Paine Field (Snohomish County Airport) 9010' 1250 Environmental limitations Port Angeles Airport (Fairchild International) 6347' 800 Proximity to population Renton Municipal Airport 5382' 170 Runway length, Acreage, available off-airport land Seattle-Tacoma International Airport 11900', 9426' and 8500' 2500 Capacity Skagit/Bayview Airport 5478' 761 Proximity to population, runway length, acreage Tacoma Narrows Airport 5002' 568 Runway length, acreage, available off-airport land

Key Accommodates all site factors Possibly accommodates site factors Unlikely to accommodate site factors

41 Possible Solutions

42 Solution Sets

43 Solution Sets – Topics to Consider

• Commercial Passenger Service Solutions – International – Domestic – Regional • Air Cargo Solutions – Belly Cargo – All Cargo (Freight) – Integrator Cargo • General Aviation Solutions – Aircraft Storage • Sustainability Solutions – Environmental factors – Future Technologies

44 LUNCH BREAK Reconvene in 15 minutes

45 Discussion:

What should be part of a resilient, sustainable vision for Washington’s aviation future?

46 The Future of Washington’s Air Transportation System

AVIATION SYSTEM GOALS (WASP 2017) • Aeronautical and Airport Safety • Economic Development and Vitality • Education, Outreach, and Community Engagement • Infrastructure Improvement, Preservation and Capacity • Aviation Innovation • Modal Mobility, Capacity and Accessibility • Stewardship • Sustainability

47 What’s in Store?

By 2050, we predict there will be a service gap of 27M passenger enplanements per year

What assumptions drive that forecast? • Existing capacity • Environmental factors • Airport infrastructure • Aircraft technology • Markets – freight and passenger

48 49 50 51 Navigating Uncertainty

52 A Sustainable and Resilient Strategy

• Technology • Markets • Environment

How will these uncertainties affect the work of the commission?

53 Technology Markets Environment

What do we know will happen?

What do we think may happen?

What are our questions about what could happen?

54 What’s Next?

How will the commission use this information to develop a sustainable and resilient strategy?

55 Technical Working Group Break-outs

1.Physical Assessment of the System 2.Land Use and Transportation 3.Market Demand

56 Technical Working Group Organization

• What will be our role? • What will be our key products? • What do we need to advance our discussion? • When and how will we meet?

57 Discussion

58 Next Steps