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A Statistical Analysis of Commercial Aviation Accidents 1958-2019

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A Statistical Analysis of Commercial Aviation Accidents 1958-2019 Airbus A Statistical Analysis of Commercial Aviation Accidents 1958-2019 Contents Scope and definitions 02 1.0 2020 & beyond 05 Accidents in 2019 07 2020 & beyond 08 Forecast increase in number of aircraft 2019-2038 09 2.0 Commercial aviation accidents since the advent of the jet age 10 Evolution of the number of flights & accidents 12 Evolution of the yearly accident rate 13 Impact of technology on aviation safety 14 Technology has improved aviation safety 16 Evolution of accident rates by aircraft generation 17 3.0 Commercial aviation accidents over the last 20 years 18 Evolution of the yearly accident rate 20 Ten year moving average of accident rate 21 Accidents by flight phase 22 Distribution of accidents by accident category 24 Evolution of the main accident categories 25 Controlled Flight Into Terrain (CFIT) accident rates 26 Loss Of Control In-flight (LOC-I) accident rates 27 Runway Excursion (RE) accident rates 28 List of tables & graphs 29 A Statistical Analysis of Commercial Aviation Accidents 1958 / 2019 02 Scope and definitions This publication provides Airbus’ a flight in a commercial aircraft annual analysis of aviation accidents, is a low risk activity. with commentary on the year 2019, Since the goal of any review of aviation as well as a review of the history of accidents is to help the industry Commercial Aviation’s safety record. further enhance safety, an analysis This analysis clearly demonstrates of forecasted aviation macro-trends that our industry has achieved huge is also provided. These highlight key improvements in safety over the factors influencing the industry’s last decades. It also underlines the consideration of detailed strategies significant contribution that technology for the further enhancement of has made in ensuring that taking Aviation Safety. Scope of the Brochure Note: non-western-built jets are excluded* due to lack of information • All western-built commercial and business jets are not considered air transport jets above due to their particular operating 40 passengers (including environment. cargo aircraft): Airbus: A220, A300, A300-600, *except Sukhoi Superjet A310, A318/319/320/321, A330, A340, A350, A380 • Since 1958, the advent Boeing: B707, B717, B720, B727, of commercial jets B737, B747, B757, B767, B777, • Revenue flights B787 Bombardier CRJ series • Operational accidents British Aerospace: Avro RJ series • Hull loss and fatal (previously named BAe 146) types of accidents British Aircraft Corporation BAC-111 Convair 880/990 Source of Data Dassault Mercure 100 • The accident data was extracted De Havilland Comet from official accident reports, Embraer: E170, E175, E190, E195, as well as ICAO, Cirium and ERJ 140, ERJ 145, ERJ 145XR Airbus data bases. Fokker: F28, F70, F100, VFW 614 Hawker Siddeley Trident • Flight cycles data were provided by Lockheed: L-1011 Cirium for all aircraft. Cirium revises McDonnel Douglas: DC-8, DC-9, these values on an annual basis DC-10, MD-11, MD-80, MD-90 as further information becomes Sud-Aviation Caravelle available from operators. Vickers VC-10 Sukhoi Superjet A Statistical Analysis of Commercial Aviation Accidents 1958 / 2019 03 Definitions • Revenue flight: flight involving become detached from the aircraft, the transport of passengers, or cargo or mail. Non revenue flight - direct exposure to jet blast, except such as training, ferry, positioning, when the injuries are from natural demonstration, maintenance, causes, self-inflicted or inflicted by acceptance and test flights are other persons, or when the injuries excluded. are to stowaways hiding outside the areas normally available to the • Operational accident: an accident passengers and crew. taking place between the time any person boards the aircraft with the • Hull loss: an event in which an intention of flight until such time as aircraft is destroyed or damaged all such persons have disembarked, beyond economical repair. excluding sabotage, military actions, The threshold of economical repair terrorism, suicide and the like. is decreasing with the residual value of the aircraft. Therefore, as an • Fatal accident: an event in which at aircraft is ageing, an event leading least one person is fatally or seriously to a damage economically repairable injured as a result of: years before may be considered - being in the aircraft, or a hull loss. - direct contact with any part of the aircraft, including parts which have Definition of accident categories Aviation organisations define more than 40 different accident categories. However the seven listed below are the individual types which cause the most significant number of accidents. Runway Excursion (RE): Abnormal Runway Contact System/Component Failure A lateral veer off or longitudinal (ARC): Hard or unusual or Malfunction (SCF): overrun off the runway surface, landing, not primarily due to Failure or malfunction of an not primarily due to SCF SCF, leading to an accident. aircraft system or component, or ARC. related to either its design, Undershoot/Overshoot the manufacturing process Loss of Control in Flight (USOS): An Undershoot/ or a maintenance issue, (LOC-I): Loss of aircraft Overshoot of a runway occurs which leads to an accident. control while in flight not in close proximity to the SCF includes the powerplant, primarily due to SCF. runway and includes offside software and database touchdowns and Controlled Flight Into Terrain systems. any occurrence where the (CFIT): In-flight collision with landing gear touches off terrain, water, or obstacle FIRE: A fire which occurs the runway surface. without indication of loss while an aircraft is airborne. of control. A Statistical Analysis of Commercial Aviation Accidents 1958 / 2019 05 1.0 2020 & beyond 1.1 Accidents in 2019 07 1.2 2020 and beyond 08 1.3 Forecast increase in number of aircraft 2019-2038 09 A Statistical Analysis of Commercial Aviation Accidents 1958 / 2019 07 1.1 Accidents in 2019 Following a year when safety in the statistics over recent decades is The majority of flights over the last Air Transport system has been in more representative for evaluating the 20 years were made by second and the spotlight, it may be nevertheless effectiveness of industry-wide safety third generation aircraft. appropriate to review the progress initiatives, and it is why the evolution Only 34-percent of the flights were made over the last decade. of accident rates are shown as a flown by the fourth generation aircraft 2019 was amongst the years with a 10-year moving average throughout ten years ago and this grew to low number of fatal accidents despite this brochure. 52 percent by the end of the decade. the continually increasing fleet and Almost all of the commercial jet flights Analysis of the statistics also number of flights. However, a year in 2019 were flown by the latest and shows how advances in technology with 10 hull losses is also a reminder safest of aircraft generations. introduced by each generation of for why statistics in one year are not aircraft have helped to reduce the always indicative of the overall safety fatal accident rate even further than trends. Analysis of aviation accident the preceding generation. 4 0.47 10 Fatal Hull losses accidents in 2019 in 2019 0.28 0.14 0.11 Fatal accidents rate Hull loss accidents per million flights rate per million flights 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 Flight 35 36 departures MILLION MILLION In-service 25,760 26,680 fleet AIRCRAFT AIRCRAFT A Statistical Analysis of Commercial Aviation Accidents 1958 / 2019 08 1.2 2020 and beyond The number of people fl ying will year and they will perform the largest Historical data increase and sustain the growth proportion of fl ights in the next of the industry in the coming decade. decade. As the fl eet is increasing shows air traffi c This is coupled with a changing in the number of latest and safest operational context, where new routes fourth generation aircraft, this will and services bring an era of ultra-long further enable a sustained decrease doubles every haul fl ights together with the opening in the fatal accident rate. of many more short haul routes Beyond aircraft safety enhancements 15 years serving new destination airports. and the continuous improvement of Aircraft delivered today will still be training for all aviation professionals, in service beyond the next 20-years. it is also vital to raise the safety Airbus’ Global Market Forecast (GMF) Life extension programs and predictive culture. There will be more than still predict air traffi c to double within maintenance can increase the half-a-million people joining our the next 20 years. operating lifetime for today’s aircraft industry in the next two decades. Such a signifi cant growth of industry even further. This next generation must be trained activity means there is no room for Fourth generation aircraft, with and mentored to foster their deep complacency in maintaining safety. Fly-By-Wire and Flight Envelope personal engagement with the safety Protection enabled safety of fl ight and understand the role The industry will need to work enhancements, are the industry they play to avoid the tragedy of co-operatively together to increase safety enhancement efforts in order standard today. Over a thousand an accident. to decrease the accident rate. of these aircraft are delivered each World annual traffi c forecast 4.3% growth p.a. x2 x2 x2 A Statistical Analysis of Commercial Aviation Accidents 1958 / 2019 09 1.3 Forecast increase in number of aircraft 2019-2038 The in-service worldwide fleet is Global increase expected to more than double over the next 20 years. by 2038 Each delivered aircraft must be supported by a proportional increase In-service fleet in the number of trained pilots, technicians, cabin crew, air traffic +38,358 controllers, etc. Ensuring that sufficient numbers Pilots needs of suitably trained personnel will be available is one of the challenges 549,997 facing our industry.
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