TIPS IDEAS FARM

As with all the data on these pages, the guarantee of securing good share price gains – Better best ideas extra information about the popularity of stocks although it does improve the chances. But such should not be regarded as providing any defini- is the nature of investing and the job of trying to ALGY HALL tive pointers. It is easy for normal market move- make decisions under conditions of uncertainty. ne of the plans when we launched the Ideas ments over the course of a couple of months to A number of the other shares in this week’s OFarm was to keep improving these pages. cause a stock to slip in and out of a fund’s top tips section have also recently appeared on our Readers who have found it useful to know the few positions. This means we can expect a lot of best ideas lists: US drug firmMerck (US:MRK) top positions of the best-performing funds in the changes to simply represent noise. However, (page 32) and defence group QinetiQ (QQ.) given sectors may notice one such improvement hopefully it is of interest to have a clear signpost (page 31). With coronavirus still very much a this week. As well as listing how many of the as to when a new name has appeared on the list. live issue – as we’ve been reminded by recent funds we monitor have a large position in each One such case this week is XPS Pensions infection spikes in parts of the US and UK – both company on the list, there is now also detail of (XPS), which appears as a UK smaller compa- stocks offer some welcome defensive attributes. any changes to the number of best-ideas backers, nies best idea for the first time and is also one There have been some noteworthy increases and whether a share is new to the list. Best ideas of this week’s tips (page 33). It operates in a in shorts over the past week. These movements are considered to be the shares funds have put relatively stable area of financial services and are not a conclusive indicator on their own, but their biggest bets on. This is measured either by the shares look as though they are good value at are arguably of more interest than movements total position size, as is the case with this week’s the current price. The fact that Gresham House in the number of funds showing conviction in screen, or by position size relative to the index. UK Micro Cap is also keen – or at least was at the same idea. Changes in short positions are While the time frame over which the change the time of its last portfolio disclosure at the the product of someone’s conscious decision in number of best-ideas backers is monitored end of April – offers some reassurance that our rather than possibly only being the result of will in future be based on the time since the list considered view may have validity. Naturally, price movements. Among the most attention- was last published, this first round of weekly this does not mean that either our conviction or grabbing short increases (all changes repre- updates will not exactly match this. But this that of the Gresham House fund will necessar- senting over 1 per cent of the shares) during the timing detail should not make too much differ- ily prove ‘correct’. Indeed, even if the premise past week are Royal Mail (RMG), ence to the substance of what the tables tell us. for optimism about XPS proves right, it is no (CINE) and Domino’s Pizza (DOM).

UK small cap best ideas New 52-week highs Based on top 5 holdings Name TIDM Price % from high 30/06/2020 No of funds Liontrust Asset Management 2 JPMorgan Japanese Invt JFJ 546p 0.0% Future 8 (-2) Mattioli Woods 2 (+1) Pacific Horizon Invt Tr PHI 485p 0.0% 6 (+2) S4 Capital 2 Octopus Renewables Infra ORIT 112p 0.4% Clinigen 4 (+2) SDL 2 (+1) Tritax EuroBox EBOX 99p 0.6% Gamma Communications 4 (+1) Team17 2 Fidelity China Special FCSS 275p 1.1% Alliance Pharma 3 (+1) Treatt 2 (NEW) Scottish Mortgage Invt Tr SMT 812p 1.1% Onesavings Bank 3 (+1) AB Dynamics 1 MNKS 1,054p 1.3% YouGov 3 Amazon.com 1 (NEW) Capital Gearing Trust CGT 4,430p 1.3% 2 Augean 1 (NEW) Reckitt Benckiser RB 7,270p 1.4% Breedon 2 (+1) 1 Edinburgh Worldwide Invt EWI 262p 1.5% CLS Holdings 2 Blue Prism 1 Baillie Shin BGS 194p 1.5% Codemasters 2 Boohoo 1 Aberdeen Japan Invt Trust AJIT 640p 1.5% Cranswick 2 (NEW) 1 (NEW) PNL 44,250p 1.7% CVS 2 (+1) Ceres Power 1 (NEW) IG Group IGG 820p 1.7% Diversified Gas & Oil 2 (+1) Cerillion 1 Kape Technologies KAPE 215p 1.7% dotDigital 2 Chemring 1 Croda International CRDA 5,224p 1.7% EKF Diagnostics 2 Costain 1 (NEW) Sterling Energy SEY 11p 1.8% Worldwide Healthcare Trust WWH 3,625p 1.8% Fevertree Drinks 2 (NEW) Dewhurst PLC Class A Non Voting 1 Spirax-Sarco Engineering SPX 10,020p 1.9% IMImobile 2 (+1) Diploma 1 (-1) International Public INPP 169p 1.9% Impax Asset Management 2 discoverIE 1 Biotech Growth Trust BIOG 1,284p 2.0% IntegraFin 2 (+1) Dunelm 1 (NEW) Hipgnosis Songs SONG 115p 2.1% JTC PLC Ordinary Shares 2 (+1) Eckoh 1 Polar Capital Tech PCT 2,040p 2.1% Knights Group 2 Source: Morningstar Fulcrum Utility Services FCRM 33p 2.2% Witan Pacific Invt Trust WPC 348p 2.3% Bunzl BNZL 2,145p 2.5% New 52-week lows JTC JTC 469p 2.5% BH Macro BHMG 3,470p 2.5% Name TIDM Price % from low Smithson Investment Trust SSON 1,458p 2.5% DWF DWF 56p 1.8% ATT 2,250p 2.6% Impellam IPEL 229p 2.1% Civitas Social CSH 109p 2.7% Pittards PTD 40p 2.5% Ruffer Investment RICA 243p 2.8% HSBC HSBA 380p 2.9% Naked Wines WINE 427p 2.9% TOC Property Backed Lndng PBLT 86p 2.9% Numis NUM 311p 3.0% Source: FactSet, as at 1 July Source: FactSet, as at 1 July

36 INVESTORS CHRONICLE 3 JUL - 9 JUL 2020 TIPS IDEAS FARM

Strategy: 3 months to 30 June 2020 (%) 1-month EPS upgrades (top 25)

25 29 June 2020 FWD EPS CHG Name TIDM 1mth 3mth 1yr 20 Best of the Best AIM:BOTB 148.4% 148.4% 267%

15 Gear4music AIM:G4M 102.5% 102.4% 74% Luceco LSE:LUCE 75.8% -44.2% -38% 10 Antofagasta LSE:ANTO 63.2% -6.4% -64% Performance (%)

5 4imprint LSE:FOUR 62.1% -63.5% -72% Jadestone Energy AIM:JSE 61.7% 76.7% -86% 0 ValueQuality GrowthMomentum FTSE All-Share CMC Markets LSE:CMCX 48.1% 69.7% 142% Source: S&P CapitalIQ Calisen LSE:CLSN 44.7% 37.7% - McCarthy & Stone LSE:MCS 43.9% -84.7% - ASOS AIM:ASC 40.4% - - Shorts BATM Advanced Communications LSE:BVC 40.0% 40.0% 24% Short No of 1-week change Saga LSE:SAGA 38.7% -61.8% -68% Company interest shorters in short interest Kingfisher LSE:KGF 38.4% -5.7% -36% 12.6% 9 0.7% Polar Capital AIM:POLR 35.9% 6.7% -16% Royal Mail 9.4% 7 1.2% Frasers LSE:FRAS 35.5% -25.7% -26% Premier Oil 8.7% 3 0.0% Hummingbird Resources AIM:HUM 31.3% 50.6% 116% 7.8% 6 -0.2% Orchard Funding AIM:ORCH 29.7% 29.7% -24% Pearson 6.9% 7 0.1% Hunting LSE:HTG 28.8% -68.1% -90% 5.4% 3 0.6% Bloomsbury Publishing LSE:BMY 28.0% -34.4% -35% Cineworld 5.4% 7 1.2% Venture Life AIM:VLG 27.6% 56.4% 85% Babcock Intl 5.2% 4 -1.0% Gw Pharmaceuticals 5.2% 4 0.0% Atalaya Mining AIM:ATYM 24.4% - - Petropavlovsk 5.2% 1 0.0% LSE:888 23.1% 14.0% -13% Domino’s Pizza 4.9% 7 1.3% Urban&Civic LSE:UANC 22.2% -2.5% -36% Petrofac 4.8% 4 0.6% B&M European Value Retail S.A. LSE:BME 21.4% 12.4% 2% IqQE 4.8% 3 0.0% Games Workshop LSE:GAW 20.8% 11.3% 1% Future 4.6% 3 0.1% Source: S&P Capital IQ Croda International 4.5% 5 0.0% Wm Morrison Supermarkets 4.4% 4 -0.2% Dignity 4.2% 3 -0.2% 1-month EPS downgrades (top 25) Smith (David S) 4.1% 6 0.6% 29 June 2020 FWD EPS CHG Tui Ag 4.0% 4 0.0% Name TIDM 1mth 3mth 1yr 4.0% 5 0.0% Cineworld Group plc LSE:CINE -98.3% -99.2% -100% Blue Prism 3.9% 4 0.0% MJ Hudson Group plc AIM:MJH -95.5% -99.3% - Vodafone 3.9% 4 0.0% Renewi plc LSE:RWI -87.4% -89.9% -93% Wood Group (John) 3.9% 6 0.0% C&C Group plc LSE:CCR -87.3% -92.3% - AG Barr 3.8% 3 0.6% Renold plc AIM:RNO -76.9% -84.7% -86% Sainsbury (J) 3.7% 2 0.0% WH Smith PLC LSE:SMWH -74.7% - - Intu Properties 3.6% 1 -1.9% plc LSE:BIFF -67.5% -78.1% -79% Weir Group Plc/The 3.6% 4 0.0% Amigo Holdings PLC LSE:AMGO -60.1% -62.2% - Keywords Studios 3.5% 4 0.0% Steppe Cement Ltd. AIM:STCM -57.6% -57.6% -63% 3.3% 4 -0.6% 3.3% 2 0.0% First Property Group plc AIM:FPO -56.0% -55.9% -56% Burberry 3.2% 4 0.7% The Vitec Group plc LSE:VTC -53.6% -73.7% -87% Marks & Spencer 3.2% 2 0.0% Blancco Technology Group plc AIM:BLTG -52.0% -59.1% -59% Primary Health Properties 3.2% 4 0.1% Fuller, Smith & Turner P.L.C. LSE:FSTA -50.8% -69.3% - AA 3.1% 3 -0.2% Yourgene Health Plc AIM:YGEN -50.0% -50.0% - Auto Trader 3.1% 5 0.0% Plc LSE:SDY -49.7% -57.2% -80% Daily Mail & General Trust 3.1% 3 0.0% Bushveld Minerals Limited AIM:BMN -49.5% -57.8% -88% Ashmore 2.9% 3 0.0% plc LSE:SVS -48.7% -48.7% -49% Restaurant Group 2.8% 3 0.1% Group plc LSE:MTO -48.1% -52.9% -62% Valaris 2.8% 1 0.0% Iofina plc AIM:IOF -47.3% -47.3% -3% 2.6% 2 -0.7% plc LSE:GFTU -46.7% -65.3% -73% 2.6% 3 0.0% Costain Group PLC LSE:COST -43.0% -57.8% -80% Easyjet 2.6% 3 -1.1% Vp plc LSE:VP. -42.8% -46.9% -49% Signature Aviation 2.4% 4 0.0% Joules Group Plc AIM:JOUL -37.6% -42.3% -76% 2.3% 2 New Howden Joinery Group Plc LSE:HWDN -36.7% -51.6% -51% N. Brown 2.3% 2 New Mears Group plc LSE:MER -36.7% -52.9% -64% Intercontinental Hotels 2.3% 2 0.0% Source: S&P Capital IQ Source: FCA, as at 1 July

3 JUL - 9 JUL 2020 INVESTORS CHRONICLE 37