______

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services

Department of Infrastructure May 2001

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line i ______

SUMMARY

The State Government has committed to reviewing all coach services that have replaced passenger rail services in Victoria since 1992. A review of the Mildura corridor has been completed and the findings are presented in this report.

The review considered re-opening of the line for passenger train purposes. Extensive consultation ensured all local interests were identified. Studies undertaken included engineering assessment of the existing infrastructure and the works needed to re-introduce train services, assessments of the potential demand for passenger rail services and the implications for ongoing subsidies.

The review identified the best approach to any re-opening of the line would be to provide four return services each week using Sprinter–style or other similar high speed rollingstock to provide a mix of day and night services. Trains may travel to Melbourne via Geelong or passengers may transfer to connecting Fast Rail Services at Ballarat. The detail would be resolved as part of a tender process for the operation of the services.

It is estimated that the 450 kilometres of track between Mildura and Ballarat will require $7.7 million in works to restore it to a standard suitable for passenger trains over and above a track in good condition for freight services, which is subject to market testing and evaluation.

Train services could not be re-introduced until upgrading works were completed and new rollingstock delivered. A 3-4 year lead time on rollingstock delivery would be anticipated.

Two major regional centres (Maryborough and Mildura) and several significant country towns would be served by the trains. The combined population of the towns directly served is 42,300, within a broader population of some 90,000 in the five shires along the line.

An enhanced passenger train service could substantially reduce running times road coach timetable and is recommended. Patronage would be expected to increase by some 32,000 each year, exceeding the number when trains operated on this line prior to 1993.

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line i CONTENTS

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services The Mildura Line

SUMMARY

1. INTRODUCTION

1.1 Purpose 1 1.2 Policy Context 1 1.3 Rural and Regional Train Services 2 1.4 Regulatory Environment 4 1.5 Subsidies 4

2. STUDY APPROACH

2.1 Consultation 6 2.2 Study Tasks 7 2.3 Report Structure 7

3. THE MILDURA CORRIDOR

3.1 The Region 8 3.2 Background to the Closure of the Mildura Line 11 3.3 Regional Perspectives 12 3.4 Wider Perspectives 18 3.5 Rollingstock Availability 23 3.6 Passenger Train Service Options 23

4. PASSENGER TRAVEL DEMAND

4.1 Current Coach Service 25 4.2 Mildura and Maryborough Travel Market 28 4.3 Proposed Service Patterns 30 4.4 Forecasting Approach 32 4.5 Market Growth Assessment 33 4.6 Appraisal – Night Service Option 40 4.7 Option Variation – Day Service 42

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 5. RAIL INFRASTRUCTURE

5.1 Description of the Line 47 5.2 Inspection Findings and Analysis 47 5.3 Options for Restoration of Passenger Rail Services 56 5.4 Service Restoration Process 68

6. CONCLUSIONS

6.1 Preferred Option 70 6.2 Implementation Issues 71

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line ______

1. INTRODUCTION

1.1 Purpose

The purpose of this report is to present the findings of a study into the feasibility of re- introducing passenger and/or freight rail services on the Mildura line. 1.2 Policy Context

The State Government’s policy program is built on four key pillars:

• Responsible financial management • Growing the whole state • Delivering improved services • Restoring democracy

The State’s transport and infrastructure provide direct support to business, government and communities by providing access to jobs, services, resources and markets through the movement of passengers and freight. The health of the Victorian economy and community life is dependent on an integrated transport system operating at minimum costs and high standards of service quality and timelines.

The Government’s Linking Victoria program, in partnership with the private sector, was announced on 28 February 2000 and will generate over $1.5 billion of investment in transport infrastructure over the next three years. It will revitalise the State’s roads, railways and ports, improving transport from regions to the centre of Melbourne, linking Victoria to overseas markets, and generating investment opportunities and partnerships with the private sector.

Guidelines for public-private partnerships were announced on 28 June 2000 by the Premier and Treasurer in the Partnership Victoria Policy.

The Government’s Linking Victoria program includes commitments to an Airport Transit Link, fast rail links in regional Victoria, standardisation of railway gauges, development of Melbourne Port, and a major redevelopment of Spencer Street Station. The Geelong Freeway upgrade, the Eastern Freeway extension, the duplication of the Calder Highway to Bendigo and the Blackspot road safety program are also part of the program.

In addition, the Government is committed to reviewing all coach services that have replaced passenger rail services in Victoria since 1992. The Government will consider re-opening closed passenger lines in partnership with a private operator, depending on the cost to Government, service needs, community demand and the impact on local economies.

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 1 The relevant services are:

• South Gippsland • Mildura • Cobram • Ararat • Bairnsdale

Reviews in the first three corridors have been undertaken directly by the Department of Infrastructure. The rail operator, National Express has undertaken studies in the latter two corridors, with subsequent review by the Department of Infrastructure.

On 31 October, the Minister for Transport announced that based on the findings of a feasibility study, a resumption of rail services between Cobram and Shepparton could not be justified and would not be resumed.

Mildura Fast trains to regional centres Other existing passenger rail services Possible restoration of passenger rail services

Swan Hill

Echuca W odonga Shepparton

Benalla Bendigo Seymour

Ararat

Ballarat Bairnsdale

Sale Geelong Traralgon Warrnambool Leongatha

S T R A T E G I C P L A N N I N G D I V I S I O N

F i l e : g : \ . . \ c a d d \ i p p m i s c \ i p 0 1 7 B . W O R D a t e : 2 8 / 6 / 2 0 0 1

1.3 Rural and Regional Train Services

Regional Victoria is served by a network of privately operated train and coach services. Some 2000 services are provided each week, approximately half being train services and half coach services.

Train services are provided in the busiest corridors. With the exceptions of Mildura and Bairnsdale, all 18 Victorian cities and towns with populations of 10,000 or more are on the train network. Half of the towns with populations between 5,000 and 10,000 are also on the train network.

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 2 Accordingly, train services are more heavily used. On average trains carry 120 passengers per trip and buses carry 20 passengers per trip.

Train services can be more cost-effective in busy corridors where the costs of maintaining track can be shared amongst many services and where the greater carrying capacity of trains can be more fully utilised.

80% of train services operate in the central region between Melbourne and the regional centres of Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo and Traralgon and intermediate destinations. The remaining long distance services are to:

• Warrnambool • Swan Hill • Echuca • Shepparton • Wodonga • Sale

In addition, the interstate train services to Adelaide and Sydney serve selected intermediate destinations within Victoria.

Passengers more often prefer a train service to a road coach service although this preference is not universal, nor is it always the most important issue for current or potential passengers:

• Surveys of over 450 existing road coach passengers undertaken as part of the current series of feasibility studies show that some 20% consider that a train service in place of coaches would be the single biggest improvement that could be made to the service. The remaining 80% would give preference to lower fares or more frequent, faster or more reliable services. • Surveys of over 300 residents of country towns who do not use existing road coaches show that between 10% (in the case of short trips) and 20% (in the case of long trips) cite the lack of a train as being the main reason for not using public transport. Most either need their car while in Melbourne or consider trains and coaches to be too slow or inconvenient. • Replacement of trains by road coaches in the past has been accompanied by patronage losses of between 20% and 50%, varying from route to route.

Consultation in the Mildura corridor and in other corridors also currently under review suggests that train services offer the following advantages over road coaches:

• Trains are easier to board for people who have difficulty in climbing steps. • Long trips are more comfortable on trains because of the smoother journey, extra legroom, the ease of moving around and ease of access to toilets. This is important to all travellers with mobility difficulties, particularly the aged. • Trains can offer a faster service in some circumstances. • A through train service can avoid the need to transfer from coach to train at an intermediate rail head. • Train lines tend to be more visible than bus routes, making them easier for passengers to understand and for operators to promote.

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 3 Coach services are seen to have the advantage of being more flexible: able to be routed through the centre of town and able to pick up and set down at intermediate points without platforms.

To the extent that trains are more attractive to use, they facilitate travel within the corridor, thereby encouraging tourism and other regional economic growth opportunities. They also encourage the retention of population, particularly youth.

Rural communities often express a preference for a train service. In the current series of studies all councils have supported return of a train service and local petitions have attracted large numbers of signatories. 1.4 Regulatory Environment

Existing train and coach services are provided by a variety of private companies. V/Line Passenger, a part of the National Express company, is by far the largest, having more than a 90% share of the public transport market outside Melbourne.

Freight Australia has a long term lease on the intrastate rail infrastructure, including an obligation to maintain several closed lines on a “minimum maintenance only” basis. It also operates freight trains on many lines.

The Australian Rail Track Corporation has a long term lease on the interstate standard gauge rail infrastructure. Several private companies operate freight and passenger trains on these lines. 1.5 Subsidies

Train and coach services are subsidised by the State Government. Current subsidies are shown in Table 1.1 along with population, patronage and passenger-kilometre estimates. It should be noted that the passenger-kilometre statistics are broad estimates only.

Table 1.1 : Public Transport Subsidies (2000/01 budget) Expected Total Payments Population Per Capita Passengers Pass-kms from Government Payments Carried Carried ($M pa) (M) ($ pa) (M pa) ($/pass) (M pa) ($/pass-km)

Connex Trains (Note 2) 93 51 1.82 867 0.11 M> Train (Note 2) 117 63 1.86 1071 0.11 M> Tram (Note 2) 53 67 0.79 235 0.23 Yarra Trams (Note 2) 46 50 0.92 175 0.26 Metropolitan Buses (Note 1) 149 92 1.62 460 0.32

All Metropolitan 458 3.42 134 323 1.42 2808 0.16

V/Line Trains and Coaches (Note 2) 76 7.3 10.41 817 0.09 West Coast Rail 4 0.3 12.62 55 0.08 Hoys Rail 2 0.2 15.13 24 0.10 Private Marketed Services 3 0.4 7.50 40 0.08 Country Route Buses 24 10.9 2.20 76 0.32 School Buses (Note 1) 116 29.0 4.00 580 0.20

All Rural & Regional 225 1.31 172 48.1 4.69 1592 0.14

Note 1 Subject to resolution of indexation issues

Note 2 Expected payments per original Franchise Bid expectations

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 4 It can be seen that:

• Per-capita subsidies are higher in rural and regional Victoria than in Melbourne, mainly arising from the provision of free school bus services. • Subsidies per passenger carried on rural and regional services are higher, reflecting the much longer trips made. • Subsidies per passenger-kilometre of travel average 15 cents across Victoria but are much higher for short-haul tram and bus services in Melbourne and in regional centres. • Subsidies for the longer distance train and coach services outside of Melbourne and the regional centres average 9 cents per passenger-kilometre.

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 5 2. STUDY APPROACH

2.1 Consultation

The potential re-introduction of a passenger rail service on the Mildura line is of interest and importance to a wide range of stakeholders: existing and potential public transport users, local communities, businesses, rail and coach operators and local and state government offices. Extensive consultation was therefore a key component of the feasibility studies.

Project Launch

The study was announced by the Minister for Transport on 9 March 2000 through a press release advising of the scope of the study and the intended consultation process. The announcement was widely reported in the local media.

Community Reference Group

The feasibility study was supported throughout by a Community Reference Group comprising:

• The State Member of Parliament for Mildura: • Councillors and officers of local Councils; • Representatives of the Departments of Infrastructure and State & Regional Development; • A Representative of the Mildura Passenger Train Committee (MPTC).

The Local Councils involved were; • Mildura Rural City Council • Yarriambiack Shire Council • Buloke Shire Council • Northern Grampians Shire Council

The Community Reference Group provided direct input on matters of local and regional importance and co-ordinated local consultation. It assisted in identifying options and participated in the evaluation of options.

Discussion with Business Leaders

Individual meetings were held with local business leaders to assess the potential benefits of rail services in developing freight and tourism opportunities.

Market Research

134 passengers currently using road coach services in the corridor were interviewed to determine their current travel patterns and priorities for service improvements.

120 Mildura residents (including 100 who do not use the existing coach services) were interviewed to determine why they do not currently use coaches and the extent to which they

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 6 would use trains if they were re-introduced. Similarly a further 70 Maryborough residents, (including 50 non-coach users) were also surveyed about train services.

Technical Steering Committee

A Technical Steering Committee oversaw the conduct of the technical engineering and infrastructure assessment. The Committee included representatives of VicTrack, Freight Australia, National Express and the Department of Infrastructure.

2.2 Study Tasks

The review included the following components:

• Review of the operation of the coach services that replaced the Mildura rail passenger service; • Assessment of the technical, commercial and regional impacts of resuming passenger services on the line.

Specialist advice was sought in several areas as outlined below.

Engineering Assessments

Asia Pacific Rail Pty Ltd was engaged to provide independent expert advice on the main railway engineering and infrastructure requirements to re-open the line for passenger operations. Cost estimates and the capital works and ongoing maintenance work program were provided as part of this work. Options considered include the re-opening of the line for passenger services similar to those operated prior to closure; and higher speed passenger services such as Sprinters or similar locomotive-hauled solutions

Passenger Demand Potential

Booz Allen & Hamilton Ltd, a firm of transport consultants, were engaged to assess the demand and revenue potential of reintroducing passenger services on the line. The work included an analysis of the present coach services, conduct of an onboard coach survey to establish user views, and separate surveys of potential users in Mildura and Maryborough. An assessment of tourism potential and demand modelling and forecasting was also completed. 2.3 Report Structure

The report comprises:

• A description of the Mildura corridor and the range of issues in the corridor relevant to possible re-commencement of rail services (Section 3). • A review of the existing passenger market in the corridor and the potential demand for a train service (Section 4). • A review of the existing rail infrastructure in the corridor and the extent and costs of works necessary to bring the infrastructure up to standard for passenger operations (Section 5). • Conclusions reached and implementation issues (Section 6).

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 7 3. THE MILDURA CORRIDOR

3.1 The Region

For the purposes of this review, the region under focus is defined principally by the Rural City of Mildura. The railway line also passes through the Shires of Yarriambiack, Buloke, Northern Grampians and Central Goldfields. These Shires form the Mildura corridor.

Figure 3.1 : The Mildura Corridor

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 8 The Rural City of Mildura is situated in the far north west corner of the State with the Murray River as its northern border. It is some 500km north west of Melbourne and covers an area of approximately 22,214 sq/km, making it the largest local government area (in size) in Victoria. Major towns in the municipality include Mildura, Red Cliffs, Merbein and Ouyen. Wentworth, across the border, is also a significant town that would be served by a Mildura train. The irrigated area surrounding Mildura is one of the richest agricultural areas in Australia. Produce here includes both wine and table grapes (more than 80% of Victoria’s), dried fruits, citrus and other tree crops and fresh vegetables. The temperate climate attracts many interstate and overseas visitors.

Based on projections, the regions population stood at 47,265 in 1999 and is projected to increase by some 9,900 people between 1999 and 2021, total growth of 21%. The age structure is also expected to change over the next 20 years. The 60 to 69 and 70 to 84 age groups are projected to have the greatest growth. Reductions are expected in the 5 to 17 and 0 to 4 age groups. Population growth projections and the age structure profile for the region are illustrated in Figures 3.2 and 3.3.

Figure 3.2 : Population Projections – Mildura RC 60000

50000

No. 40000

30000

20000

10000

0 1996 1999 2001 2006 2011 2021

Figure 3.3 : Age Structure Projections – Mildura RC 60 1981 50 1991 40

2001 30

2011 20

2021 10 0 Pre-School Schooling Years Working Years Senior Pre-School = 0-4 yrs; Schooling Years = 5-17 yrs; Working Years = 18-59 yrs; Senior = 60+ yrs)

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 9 Figure 3.4 illustrates that cars dominate travel-to-work modes in Mildura.

Figure 3.4 : Travel to Work Modes in Mildura

60

50

40

No. 30 20

10 0 Train/Bus/Tram Car (driver) Car (passenger) Other Means

Table 3.1 confirms that the agricultural sector is a major source of employment in the region.

Table 3.1 : Employment by Industry Type

Industry Mildura Victoria Percentage % Male Female Male Female Agriculture, forestry, fishing etc 25.8 16.0 5.0 3.1 Mining 0.3 0.0 0.5 0.1 Manufacturing 10.1 5.2 21.5 12.5 Electricity, gas & water 2.8 0.2 2.4 0.4 Construction 7.6 1.6 8.6 1.9 Wholesale & retail trade 20.0 23.9 19.9 21.5 Transport & storage 4.8 1.3 6.2 2.2 Communication 1.8 0.6 2.5 1.5 Finance, property & business 4.9 7.5 10.7 13.5 Public administration & defense 4.5 3.6 5.9 5.2 Community services 11.2 29.7 11.3 29.7 Recreation, personal & other services 6.2 10.2 5.5 8.4

3.1.2 Other Shires in the Mildura Corridor

The Shire of Yarriambiack is situated in north-western Victoria, in the heart of the State’s wheat belt. The population is concentrated in a number of small towns which serve the surrounding broadhectare farming properties.

Buloke is also a major wheat producing area. The largest towns include Donald and Birchip, which are both served by the Mildura railway line.

Northern Grampians has a strong economic base derived from agriculture, goldmining, manufacturing and tourism. St Arnaud is the principal town in the Shire located on the railway line.

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 10 Originally a goldmining area, the shire of Central Goldfields has developed more recently as an agricultural area. The main activities are cropping and sheep farming. Maryborough, the principal town in the shire, is a manufacturing centre. Along with Dunolly, it is also directly served by the railway line.

The total population of the shires in the Mildura Corridors is summarised in Table 3.2.

Table 3.2 : Population of Shires in the Mildura Corridor

Shire Population (1999 Estimated) Mildura 47,265 Yarriambiack 8,765 Buloke 7,784 Northern Grampians 13,317 Central Goldfields 13,028 TOTAL 90,159 3.2 Background to the Closure of the Mildura Line

The Mildura Line is part of the North West passenger and freight rail network.

The passenger service has a rich history stretching back to the days of early settlement. 1903 marked the inaugural passenger service with the train consisting of a sleeper, corridor carriages, vans, water tanks and some goods wagons. Many changes occurred over the years to the routing of the train, with changing of trains and variations to the days and times of departure. The line was first worked by diesel locos in 1953, saving an hour on the journey time. In the 1960’s it ran as a day service then changed to six overnight trains each way per week.

Motorail was introduced in 1968 and the Vinelander and Sunraysia service started in 1972.

By early 1987, the service was run via Ballan, through Ballarat and down to Mildura. A final change before closure saw the service run via Geelong as a mixed day and night service. Comments to this being “tried again” perhaps hint at how difficult it has been to identify an optimal service for one of Victoria’s longest passenger train journeys, a distance of some 570 kilometres from Melbourne.

A survey completed during this year (2000) by a member of the Community reference group illustrates this complex and difficult issue. When asked about preferences for a day, evening or night service, responses from the travelling public split the market in two. From an operator’s perspective a split market can be difficult to serve profitably.

It is noteworthy that the train service has, over its recent history, been in competition with old established coach services. It would seem that coach services will always form part of the multi modal travel market between Mildura and Melbourne.

During the period 1992/93, the Government rationalised the passenger rail network. The Mildura rail service, at that time comprising four overnight services per week, was replaced with a coach service to Melbourne. The last passenger train from Mildura ran on 12 September 1993.

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 11 Today’s passenger services comprise direct overnight coaches to Melbourne and coaches from Mildura connecting to train services at Bendigo and Swan Hill.

Freight remains as the sole user of the Mildura Line.

3.3 Regional Perspectives

The extensive consultation program described in Section 2.1 identified many local viewpoints relevant to the possible re-commencement of passenger rail services in the Mildura corridor, including the following:

• The construction of a new rail link, to join the Mildura line across to the Swan Hill Line should be investigated. In addition, the feasibility of linking the Mildura Line to the Standard Gauge Hopetoun Line was also reviewed. • Freight is seen to need more investment, shippers would benefit from the availability and access to faster services. • Economic or business development benefits arising from an upgrade of the line may include the promotion of Inland Ports. • St Arnaud has a turntable for turning locomotives and should be considered as a maintenance centre. • Rail may create or add value to business development opportunities. The township of Donald presents a number of freight opportunities arising from possible investment in a meat works and a canola processing plant. • Freight Australia will derive benefits from faster freight times and wear and tear on equipment will be reduced. • An express service is more appropriate than the old Vinelander service which stopped at each and every station. A new service should stop at major stations only. • Coaches and /or trains should be timetabled to meet the needs of Mildura residents. The timetabling of the Swan Hill service, which operates at 115 kph, is designed to provide that city with a day service. It is not geared to serving the community of Mildura. • Widespread public support may not translate into actual patronage – this is a commercial risk. • Rail services are favoured over coach travel, particularly by older patrons. • Improving coach services to Swan Hill is not an alternative. Any change would mean a change to the running time of trains which could be expected to be opposed by the Swan Hill community. • For many sections of the population, in particular retired persons, the coach is not an alternative mode of travel and the lack of a train service reduces travel mobility and represents a barrier to more frequent travel to Melbourne by many sections of the community. • Difficulties of coach travel - the discomfort felt by some passengers about the confined space on coaches and how students travelling home from school / college have difficulties with luggage on coaches. • Trains may promote towns along the line as tourist destinations and in connection with annual event promotions. • Strong community feeling that the coach service was an ‘unpleasant experience’ for many passengers. • The train cannot compete with the large air travel market and it would not expect to displace air travellers. Train services are not attractive to the business travel market that uses airline services. Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 12 • The large number of students studying away from home is a market opportunity for the train. • The tourist market and the backpacker sector, which provides an important casual/seasonal labour supply to the local economy is a potential source of train patronage. • The train could suit passengers travelling to medical centres and the needs of disabled persons. • Rail may promote and become part of a package for tourist destinations in the region. Rail travel itself is a tourist attraction that could be developed further by running steam locomotives along the line. Rail may also have a linkage with themed visitor centres and historic railway buildings such as the Maryborough Railway Station. • The review should look beyond the simple re-introducing the old Vinelander service to an improved service and new ideas such as an express service and on-board catering. • Non main stations like Dunolly and Speed could be served on a pre-arranged basis. • Motorail should be considered. • A cargo sprinter with an attached sleeper service or night cars is technically possible but is not favoured by the community. • Travel time is thought to be more important than the actual route a train may take into Melbourne. • West Coast Railway has expressed an interest in operating a service to Mildura. • A service 3 times a week would be sufficient and popular with the community • A day or night service is preferred, but less popular would be an evening service. • The express service trade-off with multi-stopping could be considered in the light of bus feeder operations to connect with a train stopping at major stops/stations. This could serve smaller communities. • The local community, it is argued, has some regional entitlement to the pool of subsidies provided to other parts of Victoria through public transport subsidies on services provided – it does get this through subsidies to coaches, the issue is that without a train service there is no corresponding subsidy. • The withdrawal of train services has created a sense of social isolation for the Mildura community. A train is a real and physical commitment to relieve the isolation of rural Victoria. • Whether any community may be disadvantaged if a coach service was withdrawn while at the same time that community was not served by any new train service should be checked. • Senior citizens, deserve a quality service. • Public transport helps stem the flow of young people from the region. • Road safety – trucks and cars on roads pose an accident threat. • Rail services provide a link between towns and facilitate visits to other towns for example for hospital appointments. • Poor transport prevents some people, particularly young people and non-car drivers, from taking up employment opportunities in nearby towns.

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 13 3.3.1 Local Market Research on the Return of a Train Service

Section 2 of this report introduced details of the consultation process, including the Community Reference Group and research conducted by consultants on travel demand. Members of the community reference group also conducted two surveys:

• Mildura Passenger Train Survey – Office of Russell Savage – State Member of Parliament for Mildura; • Business and Community Group Survey – Mildura Passenger Train Committee (MPTC).

Key findings and highlights from the reports prepared on these two surveys are reproduced in the outlined box.

Mildura Passenger Train Survey 22,000 surveys were distributed amongst the electorate with 4,906 responses received. Nearly 10,500 people were identified as potential regular train users.

Q. Do you want a passenger rail service returned to Mildura?

Question One 4906 5000 4000 3000 2000 110 1000 19 0 Yes No Don’t Know

Q. If a Mildura service was returned would you use it?

Question Two

4550 5000 4000 3000

2000 164 1000 0 Yes No

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 14 Q. How often would you be likely to use it?

Question Three

4000 3256 3000 2000 1024 355 1000 0 1-5 5-10 10+

Q. Please indicate how many of the people residing in your household would use the train regularly?

A. 10,461

Q. What would be your main reason for using the train to Melbourne?

Question Five 1478 1500 Medical Appointments

Recreational Travel 1000 Business 355 500 267 Study 89 74 Other 0

Q. What type of service would you consider ideal?

Question Six

2500 2067 Daily 2000 1390 Twice Weekly 1500 742 Three times Weekly 1000 Other 500 82 51 Don’t Know 0

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 15 Q. Would you prefer a day, evening or night service?

Question Seven

2047 2211 2500 2000 1500 745 1000 500 0 Day Evening Night

Q. Would you support a long distance sprinter train Service?

Question Eight

6000 4338

4000

2000 173

0 Yes No

With community support a key factor in the state government’s decision making criteria it is also worth mentioning a significant proportion of responses received indicated family and friends from Melbourne or in other centres along the line would be just as likely to use the train service to visit Mildura or Melbourne.

Overall the responses to the survey appear to indicate nearly 10,500 would use the train for overnight travel on a sprinter service running at least three times a week. The majority of travel would be for recreational purposes such as family visits.

Source: Mildura Passenger Train Survey May 2000 – Russell Savage MLA Member for Mildura & Mildura Passenger Train Committee

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 16 Business & Community Group Survey by MPTC

The MPTC comprises members from a cross-section of the Sunraysia community.

The summary results of the questionnaire distributed amongst the local business and community groups sectors are summarised below.

Would community members visiting your establishment benefit from the availability of a regular passenger train service? Yes 55 No 2

What kinds of travel benefits can be identified by your organisation? Larger seating 39 Less confinement 49 Food and beverages 45 Reasonable fare structure 47 Student travel 39

Do you agree socially isolated people would benefit from the return of the train? Yes 57 No 0

Would a faster train make the return of the service more successful? Yes 49 No 1

Which times would suit the constituents of your organisation? Sleeper – viz Vinelander 35 Day service 27 Sprinter service 27 Other 7

Should the train replace the overnight bus service? Yes 47 No 0

Source: Mildura Passenger Train Survey May 2000 – Russell Savage MLA Member for Mildura & Mildura Passenger Train Committee

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 17 3.4 Wider Perspectives

In addition to the regional views and issues described above, there are some wider perspectives also of relevance to the feasibility of re-establishing rail services. They are discussed below.

The North West Freight Strategy

The North West Freight Transport Study (NWFTS) is identifying infrastructure and planning actions to ensure the north-west Victorian transport network supports efficient freight movements arising from growth in the agriculture and mineral sands sectors. It identifies opportunities for additional inter-modal sites in the area including relocating freight facilities from the Seventh Street rail yards and petroleum storage in Mildura to alternative locations.

Portland Access Study

The Portland Access Study has identified rail standardisation as a key issue for the Port of Portland, but recognises that decisions about this need to be made in the context of the standardisation project and any impacts on passenger services.

Rail Standardisation

It is Government policy that rail lines will be converted to standard gauge where cost- effective and practical within the constraints of passenger train operations.

Government has announced the allocation of $96 million for gauge conversions, including the Mildura Line. Beyond strategic benefits of gauge conversion including on-rail competition and increased competition between ports, the major reason to convert the Mildura line is the mining and processing of mineral sands for export shipment but only to the extent that these cargoes have to be railed to the Port of Portland.

If passenger services are operated on the Mildura line post gauge conversion, these trains would have to be routed via North Geelong, at least in the medium term, pending future conversion of the Melbourne-Ballarat corridor via Bacchus Marsh. They would also have to enter Melbourne on a circuitous route via Brooklyn and Tottenham which, in combination with the North Geelong route, would add some 30 minutes to the Melbourne-Ballarat portion of the journey. However, passengers would be able to transfer from the Mildura standard gauge train at Ballarat and join the broad gauge – Ballarat to Melbourne ‘Fast Rail’.

Potential Infrastructure Needs for Mineral Sands

This issue is discussed in further detail in the studies mentioned above. A report on the NWFTS is expected in 2001.

Fast Rail Initiative – Ballarat

Following the publication on 5 September 2000 of a report on Fast Rail Links to Regional Centres including Ballarat, the Government has commenced a staged program of implementation.

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 18 Any resumption of a passenger train service to Mildura would benefit from the upgrade of the Ballarat rail line to the extent that passengers could change trains at Ballarat and join a high speed train and complete the journey within the 60 minute Government targeted travel time.

Standard Gauge Mildura Line Railway Link at Lascelles to the Standard Gauge Hopetoun Line

Preliminary development of options by the Department identified the possibility of linking the Mildura line to the Hopetoun line.

This option, in conjunction with converting this existing railway north from Lascelles to Mildura to standard gauge would allow movement of standard gauge passenger and freight trains via Hopetourn and Murtoa along the standard gauge interstate line between Melbourne and Adelaide as well as to Portland.

A schematic of this option is shown in Figure 3.5.

Figure 3.5 : Lascelles/Hopetoun Link

Broad Gauge

Standard Gauge Mildura Yelta Dual Gauge

Service suspended Robinvale

Interstate Passenger Service ey Intrastate Passenger Service dn Kulwin y Ouyen Piangil S

Pinnaroo Tailem Bend Swan Hill Ad el ai de Hopetoun Yaapeet

Albury

Korong Wodonga Vale

Wolseley Dimboola Inglewood Murtoa Eaglehawk Benalla

Horsham Bendigo Dunolly Naracoorte Maryborough Castlemaine Seymour

Ararat

Maroona Ballarat

Hamilton Melbourne

Mt. Gambier Gheringhap Heywood Geelong

Long Warrnambool Portland Island

0 100 Km

G:\\Strategic Planning\AllSP\Cadd\ipp misc\ip006.cdr

The viability of such a proposal would depend upon the costs involved in developing such a link. Railway engineers examined the option and provided an estimate of order-of-magnitude costs.

Costs associated with the 26 kilometre rail link include land purchase, bridges, earthworks, track infrastructure, level crossing protection and signals.

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 19 The cost of constructing a new link is likely to be in excess of $34 million. This compares with the cost of converting the entire line between Mildura and Dunolly to standard gauge estimated at $20 million, some $14 million cheaper. Conversion of only part of the Mildura line would also limit the routing options for the Mildura – Melbourne passenger train. Dual gauging of the line is not a viable option.

Broad Gauge Mildura Line Link to the Swan Hill line

Another development option, to link the Mildura line across to the Swan Hill line was also identified by the Department. This proposal was also promoted by a consortium of Councils including Swan Hill and Bendigo as part of a “High Speed Train Services” project from Melbourne to Mildura via Bendigo and Swan Hill.

A schematic of the option is shown below.

Figure 3.6 : Ouyen to Swan Hill Line

Broad Gauge Standard Gauge Mildura Dual Gauge Ye l ta Se rvi ce suspended Robinvale Intersta te Passeng er Service

Intrasta te Passeng er Service y e n d Kulwin y Ouyen Piang il S Pinnaro o Tailem Bend Swan Hill A d e la id e Hope toun Ya ap ee t Albury

Korong Wodonga Vale Wolseley Dimboola Murto a Inglewo od Eaglehawk Benalla Ben di go Horsham Dunolly Naracoorte Maryborough Castlemaine Seym our

Ar arat Maro ona Ballarat

Hamilton Melbo urne

Mt. Gambier Heywood Gh er ingha p Geelong Lo ng Po rtland Warrnambool Island 0 100 Km

G:\\Stra tegic Planning\ All SP\Cadd\ipp misc\ip006.cd r

The cost of this link was estimated to be of the order of $130 million for a new link of some 100 kilometres.

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 20 Rail Reserves and VicTrack Surplus Land

A report prepared for VicTrack (The Noelker Report) makes a series of recommendations about the disposal of Rail Reserves.

These plans are being deferred pending a Statewide strategy and local review.

Victrack also have several proposals to dispose of strategic parcels of land. Railway engineering consultants recommend that a parcel of land adjacent to the passenger railway station at Mildura be retained for potential use as a car park/car unloading apron in the event that passenger services, possibly including a motorail service, are re-introduced. These plans are related, to and could be contingent on, plans to relocate the Freight Centre. Such a development could potentially release land that could be used for car-parking/motorail purposes.

The issue of the relocation of the Freight Centre is discussed below.

Re-location of the Mildura Freight Centre

Photographs 3.1 (left) and 3.2 (right)

The relocation of the Mildura Freight Centre shown above has been the subject of several reviews. The North West Freight Strategy will make a recommendation on these proposals. Railway engineering consultants have made an assessment of these proposals. An overview of the findings and recommendations is presented below.

Restoration of rail passenger services between Melbourne and Mildura would require consideration of the use of Mildura Station and associated railway facilities in the context of planning for the future of Mildura’s central business district and its relationship to the Murray River which is separated from the city by the railway.

Mildura Station has a well maintained platform with a relatively new station building which has a modern air-conditioned, waiting room manned by VLP staff and which presently serves road coaches to and from various localities. The waiting room serves both the bus station and the railway platform. The 250 m long platform is more than adequate for any passenger train expected to be needed in the future. There are toilets, seating in the waiting room and on the platform, a public address system, telephone, security alarms, car parking, water, fencing, a footbridge at the Melbourne end, facilities for servicing carriages, a turntable, Motorail ramps, lighting, and a huge verandah on the platform. The station is in excellent condition and would require little to reintroduce passenger rail services. Mildura would need to be switched in as

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 21 an intermediate block point to enable passenger trains to operate into and out of Mildura when freight activities are being carried out between Mildura and Yelta.

Restoration of passenger rail services to Mildura is expected to require renovation of the facilities needed to support the operation, but no expansion of railway land. Additional parking for railway patrons at the station may also be required, perhaps by sealing, fencing and providing security for the vacant land immediately south of the west end of the station.

The Mildura Urban Design Framework of July 1999 suggests relocation of the Freight Centre which is immediately north of the station and development of a Public Transport Interchange incorporating railway and motor coach functions of the present Mildura Station. Assuming suitably located, accessible land of sufficient size can be allocated to it, there does not appear to be any reason, other than cost, why the Freight Centre could not be relocated. Similarly, the train support functions now located immediately west of Mildura Station – fuelling, inspection, light repair, cleaning – could be relocated to another suitable site close to the station. In any case, for planning purposes, a minimum of the main line and two sidings should be kept for the railway through Mildura Station to allow passenger locomotives to change ends while allowing simultaneous freight movements for the grain terminal at Yelta, and to allow passage of trains for routine or emergency operations. A siding should also be provided to allow Motorail loading and unloading.

Photograph 3.3

Looking east across the railway lines from Mildura station platform (the Murray river running left, town centre to the right).

Consultants recommend retention of the first 3 tracks, left of the platform.

The proposed location of a Transport Interchange at the site of Mildura Station and its integration with the proposed development would be a practical approach to the needs for motor coach and rail transportation. As data come to hand on the numbers of trains, coaches, travellers and associated users of the Transport Interchange it will be possible to define more precisely the functions and scale of what will be required.

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 22 Other Freight Initiatives – Inland Ports

The Victorian Ports Strategic Study recommends the development of intermodal freight facilities, container parks and inland ports. The Container Parks Study recommends the development of rail linked multi-purpose inland container facilities to support the network of existing facilities located on and near to the Port of Melbourne.

Accordingly this report notes the ongoing strategic planning work relating to the development of freight hubs. Present and future work relating to developing terminals for the mineral sand industry and inland ports will be taken into account and coordinated with these wider initiatives.

3.5 Rollingstock Availability

The train fleet would need to be expanded if a Mildura passenger train service were to be re- introduced. There is no readily identifiable source of additional rollingstock in Australia that is suitable to the task. Any potential operator of this train service would be likely to need to order new rollingstock. Additional trains could be available in 3- 4 years.

3.6 Passenger Train Service Options

3.6.1 Introduction

Various options to resume a train service to Mildura have been considered and four basic options identified for detailed consideration:

• Reinstating the previous 4 times a week service at approximately the same timetable • Reinstating the previous 4 times a week service at a faster speed • A mixed service using one sprinter train • A mixed day and overnight service

3.6.2 Resuming the Overnight Vinelander Service

By introducing a train service, a number of coach legs could be substituted by a train. Under this option, the number of coaches employed would be cut back to one, however two trains would be required on two key days (Fridays and Sundays) in order to maintain the service level. This operation would cut the number of coach trips from 12 to 4.

3.6.3 A Faster Vinelander Service

A faster service could see journey times cut from 9 hours 40 minutes (old Vinelander ) to under six hours.

Other than different arrival and departure times, the two trains would complete 8 trips and coaches would complete the other 4.

3.6.4 A mixed service using one sprinter train Considerable flexibility in timetabling a single relatively high-speed sprinter arises if the track is upgraded to Class 2 and speeds of 130 kph could produce journey times less than 6 hours. Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 23 The train could be run in such a way as to yield a variety of services:

Between Mildura and Melbourne From Mildura To Mildura UP DOWN Fast evening train service 1 2 Slow overnight train service 2 0 Fast day train service 2 3 Overnight coach service 2 1 Total services 7 6

The number of legs is summarised as follows:

UP DOWN Total Train 5510 Coach 2 1 3 Total 7613

3.6.5 A mixed day and overnight service

This service option would effectively double-up on a single sprinter service. Actual savings on coach legs is more difficult to model as scheduling depends on whether the service is operated on a 4 times a week or a full daily service in each direction.

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 24 4. PASSENGER TRAVEL DEMAND

Chapter 3 provided an overview of the Mildura line and background on the withdrawal of the passenger service, discussed new and existing services which have operated for many years between Melbourne and Mildura, and the new road service connecting with the train at Swan Hill. The present number of week day coach departures is summarised in Table 4.1.

Table 4.1 : Coach and Connecting Train Services from Mildura

Service Number of Week Day Departures Direct coach to Melbourne 5 Coach connections with Bendigo train 6 Coach connections with Swan Hill train 4 Total 15 4.1 Current Coach Service

4.1.1 Existing Service Patterns

Figure 4.1 illustrates the present service patterns in the Mildura to Melbourne corridor. In summary:

• Coach services provide inter-regional connections to and from Melbourne. Most of the coach services connect with rail services at Bendigo, Castlemaine or Ballarat. • A direct coach service runs overnight between Mildura and Melbourne. This service is a direct replacement of the previous rail service which used to run overnight prior to its closure. • There are two coach service groups: - the Mildura corridor group: and - the Maryborough corridor group • The Mildura corridor group includes the following coach services leaving Mildura via: - Swan Hill and Boundary Bend to Bendigo for connecting train - Balranald and Tooley to Bendigo for connecting train - Managatang to Bendigo for connecting train - Direct overnight coach service • The Maryborough group includes coach services that leave Maryborough for: - Rail connections at Castlemaine - Rail connections at Ballarat - Direct overnight coach service from Mildura.

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 25 Figure 4.1 : Existing Regional Public Transport Services

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 26 Tables 4.2 and 4.3 identify the existing level of service supplied on coach services connecting to Melbourne from Mildura and Maryborough.

Service characteristics are: • There are 20 coach connections from Mildura and 24 connections from Maryborough to Melbourne each week • Most Mildura and Maryborough coach services are connections with Bendigo or Ballarat rail services. The only direct coaches are overnight or late night services. • There are 3 return services from Mildura on a typical weekday, with each service travelling via a different route to Melbourne • From Maryborough, there are up to 6 return services on a typical weekday, with most services involving a transfer at Castlemaine • Average weekly service levels and travel times are:

Station Service Connections to Average Travel Time Melbourne /Week1 to Melbourne1 Mildura 20 8:10 (3 return trips / weekday) Maryborough 33 3:03 (6 return trips / weekday) Note:1This is the average travel time of all coaches during the week. Where coaches feed to a rail head, the travel is the coach plus the rail travel time all the way through to Melbourne.

Table 4.2 : Summary of Services Mildura to Melbourne Service Depart Time Services/ Modes Arrive Travel Time Week Melb. MONDAY TO FRIDAY Mildura – Swan Hill – 4:20 4 Coach – Rail 11:05 6:45 Boundary Bend Mildura – Balranald – 8:25 1 Coach – Rail 17:23 8:58 Bendigo Mildura – Managatang – 8:55 4 Coach-Rail 17:23 8:28 Bendigo Mildura – Boundary Bend – 12:20 1 Coach-Rail 20:15 7:55 Bendigo Mildura - Melbourne 21:45 5 Coach 7:00 9:15 SATURDAY Mildura – Swan Hill – 4:20 1 Coach – Rail 11:05 6:45 Boundary Bend Mildura – Managatang 10:10 1 Coach – Rail 18:26 8:16 SUNDAY Mildura – Managatang 10:10 1 Coach-Rail 18:26 8:16 Mildura – Swan Hill – 13:45 1 Coach-Rail 20:47 7:02 Boundary Bend Mildura – Direct 21:45 1 Coach-Rail 7:00 9:15

Total/ Week 20

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 27 Table 4.3 : Summary of Services Maryborough To Melbourne Service Depart Time Services Modes Arrive Travel Time /Week Melb. MONDAY TO FRIDAY Mildura – Maryborough – 3:35 5 Coach 7:00 3:25 Ballarat Maryborough – Castlemaine 6:00, 10:30, 20 Coach – Rail 8:38, 13:18, 2:30, 2:38, 16:05, 17:45 20:15, 20:15 2:48, 4:10 Maryborough - Ballarat 8:31 4 Coach-Rail 11:29 2:58 SATURDAY Mildura – Maryborough – 3:35 1 Coach 7:00 3:25 Ballarat Maryborough – Castlemaine 8:35, 15:45 1 Coach – Rail 11:05, 18:26 2:30, 2:41 Maryborough - Ballarat 8:46 1 Coach – Rail 11:50 3:04 SUNDAY Maryborough – Castlemaine 15:45 1 Coach-Rail 18:26 2:41

Total/ Week 33

4.2 Mildura and Maryborough Travel Market

4.2.1 Travel Mode Share to Melbourne

Figure 4.2 illustrates the current mode shares between Melbourne, Mildura and Maryborough.

Figure 4.2 : Mode Share Mildura and Maryborough – Melbourne (Trips over a typical month) MILDURA MARYBOROUGH Coac h Services Other 8% 5%

Coach Plane Services 28% 15%

Car Driv er Car Dr iv er 47% 60% Car Passenger 20%

Car Passenger 17%

Source: Mildura and Maryborough Telephone Survey – Booz•Allen July 2000

Coach has an overall market share of 8% from Mildura and 15% from Maryborough. Both markets are dominated by car travel, which has a mode share of at least 64%. Air travel accounts for 28% of all trips from Mildura.

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 28 4.2.2 Existing Annual Coach Travel Demand

Table 4.4 shows the current total annual usage of coach services.

Table 4.4 : Annual Total Coach Usage – Mildura/ Maryborough Corridors (1999/00)

Coach Group Annual Boardings Av. Boardings/ Av. Boardings per Week day1 Mildura 65,000 1,250 180 Maryborough 54,000 1,000 140 Total 119,000 2,250 320 Source: DoI/VLP Records Note: 1Based on distribution of weekday and weekend patronage from On Board Coach Survey – Booz•Allen (July 2000)

On a typical day, about 320 coach boardings are made. Total travel by coach is 119,000 boardings p.a. with a slight majority of boardings in the Mildura corridor

4.2.3 Typical Coach Loadings

Table 4.5 shows the loadings of coach services covered in the on board survey.

Table 4.5 : Typical Coach Loadings

Total Boardings per Run – Trips from Melbourne Departure Time Service Total Load Friday 8:35 Bendigo – Mildura 30 16:37 Swan Hill – Mildura 12 21:45 Melbourne-Mildura 29 10:10 Castlemaine-Maryborough 3 16:08 Ballarat-Maryborough-Donald 17 18:30 Castlemaine-Maryborough 10 Friday Total 101 Saturday 8:35 Bendigo – Mildura 24 17:50 Swan Hill-Mildura 10 8:10 Ballarat-Maryborough-Donald 13 8:35 Castlemaine-Maryborough 16 17:50 Castlemaine-Maryborough 16 Saturday Total 79 Source: Coach On Board Survey – July 2000

The Mildura overnight coach and the daytime coach via Bendigo carry the highest loadings. Maryborough loadings are generally below those to Mildura. Average loads are 17 weekday and 16 on the Saturday.

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 29 4.2.4 Typical Weekly Coach Travel Patterns

Table 4.6 illustrates the trip origin and destination patterns and travel volumes for typical weekday travel from locations around the Mildura rail corridor rail stations from Melbourne.

Table 4.6 : Mildura Coach Demand Patterns

Destinations Mildura Donald Ballarat Swan Hill Kerang Speed Robinvale Balranald Boundary Bend Lake Bogon Nyah Subtotal Bendigo 700000100008 Melbourne 36255400101155 Ballarat 000002000002 Swan Hill500000001006 Subtotal48255421111171

This indicates that: • The majority of trips (77%) are from Melbourne • Half of all trips are between Melbourne and Mildura. • Mildura accounts for 67% of all trip destinations. • There are only four trips (6%) not from Melbourne or to Mildura. 4.3 Proposed Service Patterns

4.3.1 Introduction

This section describes the options developed as the basis for the study forecasts. This section defines the details of the proposed future rail and coach services to be provided if rail services are to be re-introduced. The forecasts made are only relevant to these particular circumstances; should circumstances be different, then the forecasts would need to be adjusted correspondingly.

Two sets of service patterns are considered; one with a night only rail service and, as a variation, consideration is given to running some of the rail services during the day.

4.3.2 Option – Overnight Rail Service Only

The option to be evaluated is a revised V/Line service comprising a new rail service and revised coach services based on the previous (1993) rail and coach service pattern. It includes the following detailed adjustments compared to the existing service patterns:

Rail Operating Pattern • Reintroduction of four overnight passenger rail services from Mildura to Melbourne each week. • Trains call at the following stations as a minimum: Maryborough, St Arnard, Donald, Birchip, Ouyen and Mildura.

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 30 • Travel time by rail between Mildura-Melbourne will be 8 hrs 10 mins (the same as the existing coach). Travel time is not as critical a service feature for an overnight train service as it would be for a day service. With travel times around 8 hours it is possible to leave Melbourne at around 10p.m. and to arrive in Mildura at about 6a.m. If the train ran faster, the arrival time in Mildura would be too early, or a less attractive later Melbourne departure may be needed.

Coach Operating Pattern • The coach operating pattern in the option is aimed at minimising duplication of rail and coach services but also ensuring that the number and quality of existing coach connections and their levels of service are maintained • Essentially only coach services duplicating the train service are removed. This involves withdrawing overnight services on days the train operates (4 times per week).

4.3.3 Option Variation – Day and Overnight Services

A variation to the above option involves rescheduling two of the weekly return night services to operate during the day. This explores the potential of a new daytime service that will serve both the Maryborough and Mildura day markets.

A critical feature of the day service option is that it opens up the potential for serving Maryborough. A night rail service would not serve Maryborough because the arrival and departure times are around 3 to 4a.m. when few if any Maryborough passengers would want to travel. For example there were no passengers travelling from or to Maryborough on the two overnight Melbourne-Mildura coaches that were surveyed. However a day service would serve Maryborough at more reasonable travel departure/arrival times, during the morning and afternoon.

Another important feature of a day service is that travel times by rail can become more important to passengers. Passengers would generally prefer a quicker journey to their destinations.

Table 4.7 shows the proposed day rail service travel times between Mildura and Melbourne and compares these with the average existing coach travel times.

Table 4.7 : Proposed Day Rail Service To Melbourne

Station Average Travel Time to Melbourne Train – Daytime Existing Coach1 Difference Mildura 6:30 8:10 -1:40 (–20%) Maryborough 2:15 2:47 -0:32 (–19%) Note: (1) Average of all direct coach and coach plus rail connections to Melbourne during the week

A daytime rail service would reduce the travel time between Mildura and Melbourne to 6 hrs 30 mins a reduction of 20%. A similar percentage reduction would be experienced from Maryborough.

Coach services under the daytime rail service option would be modified to avoid duplication of the rail service, but no regional coach connections which provide services additional to rail would be withdrawn. Having reviewed the criteria consultants suggest none of the coach

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 31 services should be withdrawn - the direct night coach services should remain and also the daytime connections to Swan Hill and Bendigo.

4.4 Forecasting Approach

4.4.1 Introduction

This section provides an overview of the methodology used to undertake the demand and revenue forecasts for the overnight rail service option.

Forecasting aims to identify how the market will change in relation to the particular option considered. The focus of the analysis is therefore changes (mainly growth) in the market. Three separate approaches are used to undertake the forecast of market growth:

4.4.2 Market Growth Forecast Methods

1: Before/After Rail Closure Assessment This examines how demand changed when the rail service was withdrawn in 1993. The fall in demand is used as a benchmark for determining possible increases in demand should the service be reintroduced. These forecasts are adjusted to allow for factors which have changed since the service was closed including: • known changes in demand patterns since rail closure • increases in the local population base since rail closure.

2. Market Stated Intentions This examines how potential rail users suggested they would behave if the railway were reintroduced. A comprehensive survey of existing coach users and a telephone survey of potential rail users was undertaken to derive this forecast.

3. Demand Modelling This uses secondary evidence of how passengers typically behave in response to changes in travel time, frequency and mode to generate a forecast of demand.

The growth forecasts by each of the above methods are compared and a final forecast of growth identified from these results.

Each of the above three approaches is covered in Section 4.5.

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 32 4.4.3 “Diversion to Rail” Forecasts

In addition to a forecast of market growth, a forecast of the total usage of the new rail service, including diversion from other modes, is required. This analysis was undertaken by examining the size and types of existing coach and rail usage in the Mildura corridor. A series of assumptions was used to determine how the existing market may divert to the new rail service. These forecasts combined with the growth forecasts (above) were then taken to represent the total future market for rail.

The individual assumptions used to identify the scale of diversion to rail were in relation to the night service option. The day service variation option is presented subsequently.

4.5 Market Growth Assessment

4.5.1 Introduction

This section describes the various methods used to identify how the market may grow in relation to the night rail services option. To test out a range of possible growth scenarios, three separate methods were used to identify market growth.

1. Before/After Rail Closure Assessment 2. Market Stated Intentions; and 3. Demand Modelling

These methods are now discussed individually and their results brought together to determine a final forecast of growth.

4.5.2 Before/After Rail Closure Assessment

Figure 4.3 illustrates the level of usage of services in the corridor in the year prior to and the years after closure of the Mildura rail service. Four overnight trains per week were operating prior to closure; coach services replaced the train including both the overnight direct coach to Melbourne and a new daytime service connecting Mildura to trains departing from Swan Hill.

In 1995/6, a daytime coach service was introduced between Mildura and Bendigo. This connects with the rail service onto Melbourne.

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 33 ______

Figure 4:3 : Total Mildura Corridor Patronage Before And After Rail Closure

Before and After Rail Closure Loadings 76 80 -17k or 22% 70 65 65 65 62 62 62 59 60 Rail

50 31 31 32 30 29 29 37 30 40

30 10 12 12 12 14 30 7 14 20

10 22 22 22 21 21 20 19

Total Corridor Boardings 000 p.a. Boardings Corridor Total 9 - 1992-3 1993-4 1994-5 1995-6 1996-7 1997-8 1998-9 1999-0 Time

Mildura-Melbourne Overnight Coach Mildura-Swan Hill Day Coach Mildura-Bendigo Day Coach Rail Service

Source: DoI and VLP Data Note: Bendigo service pre 1995/6 based on 30K p.a. as estimated by DoI. 1992/3 rail service based on average annual loadings identified in pre-closure documentation

Figure 4.3 indicates that: • Prior to closure, the overnight rail service had loadings of around 37,000 p.a. using 4 overnight rail services per week. The rail service and associated coaches had 76,000 boardings p.a. • Following closure, the replacement coach service had loadings of 59,000 p.a., which is a decline of 22% or 17,000 boardings p.a. from total usage prior to closure • Since 1994/5, loadings have increased by about 10% • In 99/00 total coach loadings were 65,000 p.a.

Examining the change in patronage shows that: • Demand fell by 22% after rail closure • This suggests that a benchmark for rail re-introduction would be an increase on the existing market of 29% • The existing market is 65,000 boardings p.a. hence the growth would be some 19,000 boardings p.a. (1999/2000)

4.5.3 Market Stated Intentions

This section of the discussion on market growth reviews the findings of the second component of the forecasting methodology – examining market stated intentions of how people would behave as a result of re-introducing rail services. This includes a summary of the main findings of the on-board coach survey and the telephone survey undertaken for the project.

4.5.3.1 Existing User Views

A coach survey covering all existing services was undertaken in July 2000 to identify coach travel patterns and users’ views and perceptions of services. Coach users from Mildura were asked to identify the No. 1 priority to improve the V/Line service. Figure 5.2 illustrates the results for existing coach users.

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 34 Figure 4.4 : Coach User Priorities for Service Improvements No. 1 Ranked Priority to Improve V/Line Services - Coach Users More direct services to Melbourne (double More reliable the number of services (always services without a arrive on time) need to transfer 10% between coach-rail or coach-coach Provision of 5% TV/Video Fares reduced entertainment on by 30% board services 26% 7% More frequent services to Melbourne (double Replace most the number of existing coach services to/from connections with Melbourne a direct rail Shorter journey each day) service time to/from 7% 19% Melbourne (30% shorter journey time) 16% Source: Coach On Board Survey – July 2000

This indicates that the coach users were more concerned with fares than with the re- introduction of rail as a priority for improvement of the service. Overall 19% identified re- introduction of rail as their No. 1 priority for service improvement.

Coach users were also asked to identify how many additional trips they would make if their No. 1 ranked priority for service improvement was implemented. Table 4.8 illustrates the results for this question.

Table 4.8: Stated Intentions of Coach Users With Respect to Re-Introduction of Rail Services – Mildura Total coach boardings per 6 month period from survey 634 % indicating reintroduction of rail was their No.1 priority 19% Stated additional trips intended to be made as a result of reintroducing rail services for those indicating this as a No.1 priority Total additional trips per 6 month period 54 As a percentage of total coach trips 9% Source: Coach On Board Survey – July 2000

Overall this suggests a 9% growth in the market may be expected from existing coach users as a result of the project.

4.5.3.2 Non-User Views

A telephone survey covering residents in Mildura was undertaken in July 2000 to establish travel patterns of those that do not use coaches but would be potential users of the rail service should it be re-introduced. In an earlier section of this chapter, Figure 4.2 illustrated that 64% of all travel between Mildura and Melbourne is by car, 28% by plane and coach is used by 8%. The telephone survey explored reasons for using cars rather than coach to get to/from Melbourne and also asked for stated intentions of travel behaviour should the rail service be re-introduced. Figure 4.5 illustrates the reasons given for NOT using coaches to travel to/from Melbourne.

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 35 Figure 4.5 : Reasons for Not Using Coaches – Mildura Residents I'm concerned MILDURA I Do Not Live about my Near V/Line V/Line safety on Stops 3% Services are Public Too Unreliable Transport 1% 2%

V/Line Services are I Need a Car Too Slow 23% when I am in Melbourne 37%

Travelling by There are not Car is Cheaper Enough V/Line 6% Services (Not Frequenct Where I am Enough) I Would Only Going is NOT 6% Consider Readily Travelling on I Don’t Like to Accessible by a Train Travel by Public 12% Coach 7% Transport 3% Source: Mildura Telephone Survey (July 2000)

This indicates that: • Need for a car when in Melbourne was the most popular reason given; 37% of coach non users identified this issue. Related issues included "Where I am going is not accessible by public transport" (3%) and "I do not live near V/Line stops" (3%). Hence 43% of all responses relate to people who are unlikely to use V/Line services because a car is essential to their travel behaviour. • A number of responses were indicative of the quality of V/Line service being the main issue for non usage: 6% identified that frequency was too low, 23% that services were too slow and 6% that V/Line is too expensive. An additional 6% identified that car was cheaper for them. • Overall only 12% said they would only consider using V/Line if a train was supplied. A further 7% said that coaches were the problem – they just didn’t like them.

Those stating a preference for a rail service, or that they didn’t like coaches, were asked to identify if they would consider using rail services if they were re-introduced. Table 4.9 illustrates the results of this question.

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 36 Table 4.9: Stated Intentions of Non-Coach Users With Respect to Re-Introduction of Rail Services – Mildura

% indicating reintroduction of rail or that they would not use coaches 19% was their No.1 priority reason for not using VLP

Stated trips intended to be made as a result of re-introducing rail services (Those indicating this as a no.1 priority) Percentage of trips which would be made by rail 55% Total existing trips made /6 month period by this group (mostly car 90 travel) Total new rail trips 50 New rail trips as a percentage of all coach boardings 135% Source: Mildura Telephone Survey – July 2000

This suggests that the existing coach market could increase by 135% as a result of those who do not currently use coaches deciding to transfer to using a train.

4.5.3.3 Assessment of User and Non-User Intentions

The above analysis suggests that the re-introduction of rail may increase existing total travel by VLP in the Mildura corridor by: • 9% as a result of existing coach users travelling more • 135% as a result of non coach users (mostly car drivers) deciding to use the train • A total increase of 144%.

Table 4.10 reveals the growth forecast based on stated intensions, suggests an additional 94,000 patrons per year.

Table 4.10 : Patronage Growth Forecasts Based On User Stated Intentions

EXISTING COACH MARKET % INCREASE SUGGESTED PATRONAGE GROWTH SIZE BY STATED INTENTIONS FORECAST 65,000 144% 94,000

4.5.4 Demand Modelling

This section of the discussion of market growth describes the findings of the third component of the growth forecasting methodology, the use of secondary evidence of how passengers behave relative to changes in travel time, frequency and mode to generate a forecast of demand.

4.5.4.1 Direct Passenger Impacts of Reintroducing Rail

The reintroduction of overnight trains to the Mildura corridor will affect passengers by improving ride comfort and amenity which includes the following factors: • Passengers prefer the improved ride comfort and amenity provided by trains as opposed to coaches. This would include the ability to work/read while travelling (as opposed to a car). • The public tend to understand trains better than coaches; it is easily understood where trains operate from and to, whereas the flexible route nature of coach can confuse many.

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 37 4.5.4.2 Modelling of Impacts

Demand modelling has been undertaken using a total generalised travel cost approach to establish how the market may respond to the impacts identified above. Table 4.11 illustrates the key methods used to generate a forecast for benefits to the market of improved ride comfort and amenity.

Table 4.11 : Modelling Benefits

Market Impacts Representation in Travel Sensitivity for Demand Time Model Forecasting Purposes Improved Ride • Benefit attributed to rail option • Total reduced generalised Comfort/Amenity passengers to represent ride travel time measured comfort/amenity • % reduction identified • Termed the mode specific • Demand forecast using a total constant and mode specific generalised cost elasticity of – factor 1.51 1The total generalised cost elasticity measures the sensitivity of demand to changes in all the travel time and cost elements of a trip. The approach used is to total the existing travel total generalised cost (the base case) and to identify the percentage reduction of this in the option case. The elasticity is then multiplied by the percentage reduction in time. The resulting value identifies the likely proportion of demand increase likely with the option case.

Table 4.12 shows the key components of the demand model and its major outputs in terms of total generalised cost impacts and demand impacts.

Table 4.12 : Components and Key Outputs from Demand Modelling

Impact Assumptions % Change in % Demand Market Total Generalised Growth Affected1 Market Cost Forecast Growth BENEFITS Rail Mode – 30% mode specific -20% for 30% 65,000 20,000 Comfort/ factor applied to in vehicle passengers Amenity time affected 1Assumed to be the total coach market i.e. 65,000 p.a.

This suggests that in total demand would increase by up to 20,000 boardings p.a. or 30% for the Mildura corridor.

A critical point worthy of comment is that demand modelling of this type is not very good at representing market changes as a result of long distance service modifications such as in the Mildura case. The travel times are very long and car travellers in particular are highly sensitive to realistic transport alternatives since the utility of the car is not so attractive when it entails travel of 5 to 6 hours. The sensitivity of this market is evidenced by the relatively recent growth of air travel to Mildura; air travel to Melbourne has more than doubled in the last 7 years; it now has a 28% mode share and this has been primarily sourced from the car travel market.

The status of the demand modelling forecasts should be considered in the light of their very limited ability to forecast accurately under these circumstances.

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 38 4.5.5 Appraisal of Market Growth Forecasts

This section describes the findings of the three growth forecasting methods and comes to a view about the most reasonable values for assessment.

Table 4.13 summarises the main growth forecasts identified above.

Table 4.13 : Summary of Alternative Market Growth Forecasts - Night Rail Services Option

Methodology No. Additional Boardings Growth from Market Base1 (1999/2000) p.a. 1. Before and After Rail Closure 19,000 29% Assessment 2. Market Stated Intentions 94,000 144% 3. Demand Modelling 20,000 30% .1Total existing V/Line Passenger market is 65,000 p.a. (1999/2000)

The range of forecasts is therefore between a growth in patronage of between 19,000 to 94,000 boardings per annum. Two of the methods have growth forecasts with similar values (19,000 and 20,000 p.a.) while the third, the market stated intentions forecast, has a considerably higher forecast at 94,000 p.a. (over 4 times higher than the others).

In assessing how to determine a final set of forecasts the following comments regarding the forecasting methodologies are important:

• Overall method 1 (before and after rail closure) is regarded by consultants as having the highest accuracy since it is most closely related to actual travel behaviour. • Respondents tend to overstate their predicted behaviour in stated intention surveys. This results in a bias upwards of actual future travel patterns. • The lengthy distance in this market will result in the market being very sensitive to service characteristics which makes demand modelling outputs highly variable and the least reliable.

However the closeness of the demand modelling results and the before and after review forecasts provides some credence to the values suggested by both these methods.

A number of international studies considering ‘before’ stated intentions to use of a new service with ‘after’ actual changes in behaviour have found that stated intentions typically over-stated actual changes by a factor of 3 to 5 times. If the stated intentions estimate were revised by say 4 times, it would be very comparable to the other forecasts.

It is also fair to note that Mildura residents have been made fully aware of the chance of the rail service being reopened. An extensive publicity program including community participation has been underway on this issue for some time. It is possible that responses to the stated intention questions may have been biased in favour of rail usage on this basis.

It is also worth considering the scale of the improvements to the service which are being considered here. The existing service comprises 20 return coach services to and from Melbourne each week. The option case has 4 of the 20 connections to Melbourne being converted to a rail service. Essentially only 20% of all connections are being improved.

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 39 Based on the above arguments, consultants believe a main forecast growth of around 20,000 p.a. (or 30%) is more likely.

Nevertheless it is fair to note that stated intentions would suggest a figure far higher than this. We are confident that the stated intention based forecast would be highly unsuitable for a commercial based assessment of the services future. However it may be indicative of a potential latent demand for rail travel beyond that which may be forecast on commercial principles.

4.6 Appraisal – Night Service Option

4.6.1 Introduction

This Section brings together the various forecasting methods to come to a view on the scale and range of a final forecast for the night rail service option. This includes consideration of the market growth and diversion from other services resulting from re-introducing rail services operating at night.

4.6.2 Growth Forecast

The previous discussion on the appraisal of market growth forecasts has identified that market growth associated with the four night rail services options will total 20,000 p.a. (1999/2000). This growth factor is carried forward into the following analysis.

4.6.3 Diversion from Existing Coach Services

Table 4.14 details the types and sizes of the existing coach markets. For each of these, the assumptions used to determine how many of the existing coach users would use the four overnight rail services/ week are identified.

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 40 Table 4.14 : Existing Coach Services – Assumptions Used and Forecasts of Diversion to Rail

Existing Demand Services/ Assumptions for Diversion to Rail Estimated Service p.a. Week Diversion (000 (1 way) (000 boardings p.a. 99/00) 99/00) Overnight– 19 6 • 4 out of 7 become rail therefore at least 14.9 Melbourne 57% divert • expect 50% of the remainder (21.5%) to divert to night rail due to comfort of rail service • Total = 57% plus 21.5% = 79% Bendigo Day 32 7 • Assume 15% of existing Bendigo day 4.8 Coach users would divert to night rail service Swan Hill Day 14 5 • Assume 15% of existing Swan Hill day 2.1 Coach users would divert to night rail service Maryborough 54 33 • Train arrives via Maryborough at 3 to 0.0 4a.m. – no market at all at this time Total Diversion to Rail from Existing Coach Market 21.8

4.6.4 Total Night Rail Service Usage

Table 4.15 details the forecast of total night service usage based on the above methodology.

Table 4.15 : Annual Forecast of Night Rail Service Demand Boardings p.a. (1999/00)

Source of Usage Boardings p.a. (1999/00) Diversion from Existing Coach 21,800 Market Growth 20,000 Total 41,800

This suggests total rail usage would be 41,800 p.a.. This compares to usage on the 4 overnight rail services of 37,000 p.a. prior to closure. The difference between these two values is broadly in line with changes in the coach market since 1993/4 when closure occurred.

With an annual usage of 41,800 boardings, the average boardings per individual train would be 100. However individual train loadings vary during the week and throughout the year. A peak train loading of double this value is possible.

4.6.5 Revenue Forecast – Night Rail Service Option

Additional revenue from the night rail service will come principally from the fare charged to new rail passengers generated by the project. The average fare of existing Mildura area coach passengers identified from the coach on-board survey was $24. This would need to be checked against ticket sales data to confirm revenue yields

Table 4.16 details the final revenue growth forecasts for the night rail service option based on the average fare identified.

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 41 Table 4.16 : Farebox Revenue Growth Forecasts – Night Rail Service Option (Farebox Revenue p.a. 1999/2000)

Total Corridor Revenue Growth Forecast with Re-Introduction of Rail to Mildura Market Growth (Boardings Average Fare1 Revenue Growth Forecast p.a. (1999/2000) ($/boarding 1999/2000) (1999/2000) 20,000 $24,000 $480,000 1Based on VLP On Boarding Coach Survey – February 2000

In addition, the operator of the services may expect additional revenue associated with concession fares recoupment from the Government.

4.7 Option Variation – Day Service

4.7.1 Introduction

The option variation involves scheduling two of the four overnight rail services to operate during the day. This will enable potential users in Maryborough and those with a daytime travelling preference from Mildura to utilise the new train service.

4.7.2 Operating Pattern – Day Service

The overall service package involves four return rail services per week as in the night service option. All coach changes are also as for the night service option. The exception is that two night rail services are altered to daytime operation. The potential growth in demand for the two day return rail service per week is the focus of the forecasts for the day service option.

The proposed operating pattern for the day rail service is that it stops at all country stations to Spencer Street Station. The travel times from Mildura and Maryborough to Melbourne are shown in Table 4.17

Table 4.17 : Comparison of Day Coach and Proposed Rail Travelling Times

Station Average Travel Time to Melbourne Train Existing Coach1 Difference Mildura 6:30 8:10 -1:40 –20% Maryborough 2:15 2:47 -0:32 –19% Note: 1This is the average travel time to Melbourne for all coaches throughout the week. It includes the total time to Melbourne including coaches which connect to a rail service and that rail services travel time to Melbourne

The day service is proposed to operate two return trips per week. The timing of the service is uncertain, however the train would not arrive before 9:00a.m. in Melbourne and it would run only twice a week. Hence it would not cater for a commuter market.

Unlike the night service, the day service would be a viable transport alternative for the Maryborough market. Hence both the Mildura and Maryborough areas need consideration in the assessment. Market growth forecasting for these two markets is discussed below.

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 42 4.7.3 The Mildura Market

The coach on-board survey identified that Mildura residents preferred a day rail service or a night rail service in almost exactly the same proportions. This finding is supported by previous community preference surveys, mentioned earlier in this report.

On this basis, consultants concluded that a day rail service would grow the market as much as a night rail service for the Mildura market. The night service forecasts suggested a market growth of 20,000 passengers p.a. Arguably, the effect of converting two night trains to two day trains would be no change in overall growth from the four-train night services option. This would suggest growth from the Mildura market would be around 10,000 p.a. from the two night services, and 10,000 p.a. from the two day services.

Two considerations act to suggest that a day service would increase the market beyond this level: • By offering some day service a whole new set of opportunities is presented. Consultants concluded that any growth from a day service must be higher than the level of growth associated with one of the four night services, since it represents a whole new market penetration for around 50% of the travel desires in the market (i.e. half the market wants to go by day and half by night)

Overall, consultants suggested a market growth in the order of 20% may result from offering two day return services weekly in addition to two night return rail services a week. The 20% growth would apply to those using day services only who have diverted from existing coaches.

• Another factor suggesting a net growth compared to the night service option is that the day rail service will operate to a faster travel time than current coach services. Day travel is sensitive to changes in travel time (unlike night travel) hence some growth may be attributable to this.

A 20% reduction in travel time is suggested in the option. Assuming a –1.0 travel time elasticity (which would be appropriate for this kind of market), a 20% reduction in travel time would suggest a 20% growth in the market. This would apply only to a faster day service.

This suggests that growth attributable to a day rail service would start at 10,000 p.a. based on the night services forecast. In addition to this, the following would apply to all those diverting to rail services during the day: • a 20% growth factor for the new service which a day train represents • a 20% growth factor as a result of the day rail service running more quickly.

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 43 4.7.4 The Maryborough Market

The Maryborough coach group services currently attract 54,000 boardings per year. The stated intentions and demand modelling approach were used to forecast demand from Maryborough.

Benefits to Maryborough passengers include quicker travelling time, a more comfortable mode and the elimination of a rail to coach transfer. The results of the forecast methods are shown in Table 4.18.

Table 4.18 : Forecast Demand for a Daytime Return Rail Trip - Maryborough Residents Patronage Increases Applying Various Forecasting Methodology

Forecasting Methodology Additional Patronage p.a. (99/00) Stated Intentions 1,000 Demand Modelling 1,500

An increase of around 1,250 p.a. is assumed, based on the middle point of the two forecasts.

4.7.5 Summary of the Two Growth Forecasts

Table 4.19 summarises the market growth forecasts associated with the day service variation option.

Table 4.19 : Demand Growth Forecast – Day Service Variation Option (2 day and 2 night Rail Services/Week) Boardings p.a. (1999/00)

Source of Market Growth Additional Passengers p.a. Mildura Market • Direct Growth (As Night Services Option – 50% 20,000 day, 50% Night) • Enhancement due to additional utility of providing 3,600 a day as well as a night service option (+20% growth of coach users diverted to day rail – see Table 4.20) • Travel Time Reduction (20% increase on total 6,900 Mildura day usage market including diversion and growth Maryborough Market • Based on market growth estimates from surveys 1,250 and demand modelling Total 31,750

Overall this suggests that compared to a 4 night return rail service per week, the 2 day 2 night option generates an additional 11,750 boardings p.a.. Some 6,900 of these are due to the faster rail services operated during the day (+20% faster than the slow night service trains).

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 44 4.7.6 Diversion from Existing Coach Services Table 4.20 details the types and size of the existing coach markets. For each, the assumptions used to determine how many of the existing coach users would use the 2 overnight rail and 2 day rail services/ week are identified.

This suggests that total diversion to rail with a combined day and night service would be 39,500 p.a. which compares to the estimate for the night only rail service of 21,800. The increase is hardly surprising given that 84% of all existing users travel during the day.

Table 4.20 : Existing Coach Services – Assumptions Used and Forecasts of a Diversion to Rail - Combined Day and Night Service Option

Existing Demand Existing Assumptions for Diversion to Rail Estimated Diversion Service (p.a. Services (000 boardings p.a.) (000) / Week 99/00 99/00 (1 way) Night Day Total Overnight 19 6 • 2 out of 7 become rail therefore at least 8.8 3.4 12.2 Melbourne 28.5% divert • expect 50% of the remainder (i.e. 35.8%) to divert due to rail – half to night and half to the day service • Total = 28.5% plus 17.9% = 46.4% night • Total = 17.9% day Bendigo Day 32 7 • Assume 10% of existing Bendigo day 3.2 12.4 15.6 Coach users would divert to night rail service • 2 out of 7 day service travellers would use day rail (28.6%) • Say 10% of the remainder would retime travel to day of rail services Swan Hill 14 7 • Assume 10% of existing Swan Hill day 1.4 5.4 6.8 Day Coach users would divert to night rail service • 2 out of 7 day service travellers would use day rail (28.6%) • Say 10% of the remainder would retime travel to day of rail services Maryborough 54 33 • Night Train arrives via Maryborough at 3- 04.94.9 4a.m. – no market at all at this time • Assume 3 out of the 33 coach trips/day divert to rail (9%) Total Diversion to Rail from Existing Coach Market 13.4 26.1 39.5

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 45 4.7.7 Total Combined Day/Night Rail Service Usage

Table 4.21 shows the estimate of service usage for the combined day and night services.

Table 4.21 : Annual Forecast of Day/Night Rail Service Demand (Boardings p.a. 1999/000) Source of Usage Boardings p.a. (1999/00) Day Service Night Service Total Diversion from Existing Coach 26.1 13.4 39.5 Market Growth 21.7 10.0 31.7 Total 47.8 23.4 71.2

This compares to usage for the 4 night trains per week of 41,800 per week. Clearly the day service would be considerably more popular according to these estimates. With only two day trips per week, demand is estimated at over 70% higher than the total for the 4 nightly services per week option. The reason for this is simple; over 80% of the market currently travels by day, hence the day rail service provides benefits to more potential users. With 47,800 boardings p.a., the day service would carry an average of some 230 boardings per service. Peak time/season trains could be double this volume.

4.7.8 Day Option Revenue Forecast

Additional revenue from the rail service will come principally from the fare charged to new rail passengers generated by the project. The average fare for the Mildura Corridor is $24. For travel from/to the Maryborough area it is $7.

Table 4.22 details the final revenue forecasts for the combined night and day rail service based on the average fares identified.

Table 4.22 : Farebox Revenue Growth Forecasts – Two Nightly and Two Day Rail Services per Week Option Farebox Revenue p.a. (1999/2000) Change in Growth from a 4 Night Service Option1 Source of Market Growth Additional Passengers p.a. Additional Revenue 1999/00 Mildura Market 30,500 $ 756,000 Maryborough Market 1,250 $ 8,750 Total 31,750 $ 764,750 1To identify the total market effect of the day service option package, growth for the night service should be added to these values for the day service.

In addition, the operator of the services may expect additional revenue associated with concession fares recoupments from the Government.

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 46 5. RAIL INFRASTRUCTURE

5.1 Description of the Line

The railway from Melbourne to Mildura was built over a period of 46 years from the earliest segment between Newport and Geelong in 1857 to the completion of the line from Woomelang to Mildura in 1903.

As shown in Figure 5.1, although trains from Melbourne to Mildura must all go via Ballarat, there are two routes between Melbourne and Ballarat. The original route, completed in 1862, is via Geelong, a distance of 155 km. From Melbourne to North Shore there are two broad gauge tracks and then a single broad gauge track to Ballarat. A single, standard gauge track parallels this line for 84 km to Gheringhap before diverging toward Adelaide. The railway from Melbourne to Geelong is presently used for both passenger and goods trains, and the line from Geelong to Ballarat is used for freight. The tracks are maintained to Class 2 standard which allows freight trains to travel at speeds over 80 km/h and passenger trains at speeds over 100 km/h.

A more direct, but steeper railway was completed between Melbourne and Ballarat via Bacchus Marsh in 1889 which shortened the distance by 36 km to 119 km. This line serves mainly passenger trains. It is also maintained to Class 2 standard.

Because excellent track is available by both routes between Melbourne and Ballarat, no cost has been attributed to its use if passenger service to Mildura were restored.

The 453 km railway from Ballarat to Mildura is a single track line with numerous sidings and crossing loops. It was leased in May 1998 to Freight Australia at a Class 3 standard which allows passenger trains to operate at speeds up to 100 km/h and freight trains to operate at speeds up to 85 km/h.

Although there are short sections in hilly country with gradients as steep as 1 in 50, most of the Mildura Line is nearly flat and has curves with radius greater than 800m. Therefore if rollingstock is upgraded to suitable standard, high speeds can be maintained over long lengths of the line.

5.2 Inspection Findings and Analysis

The track, bridges and culverts, level crossings, signalling, communications, station buildings and platforms, and support facilities on the Mildura Line from North Geelong “C” Signal Box to Mildura Station were inspected in July 2000. The following sections summarise the observations.

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 47 Mildura Figure 5.1 Mildura Line Rail Routes

Ouyen

Speed

Birchip

Donald

St Arnaud

Dunolly

Maryborough

Ballarat

Melbourne

Nth Geelong

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 48 5.2.1 Track

North Shore to Gheringhap (16 km) This section of track is both broad gauge and standard gauge with mainly 94 lb / yd rail and with crossing work using 53 kg/m and 60 kg/m rail. It is classified as Class 2 track. The last tie cycle was in 1995. An estimated 90% of this section has severe drainage problems due to fouled ballast. A requirement for 240 sleepers per km was estimated for the next tie cycle programmed for 2003.

Gheringhap to Ballarat (73 km) This section is Class 2 broad gauge track with Continuously Welded Rail (CWR) using 94 lb/yd rail. The last tie cycle was in 1998. The track is generally in good condition with sleeper replacement not due until 2004 / 2005. Corrugations on the rail were noted in several sections and could be overcome by grinding the rail. Mud spots near Yendon should also be rectified.

Ballarat to Maryborough (68 km) This section is Class 3, broad gauge with CWR using 94 1b/yd rail. The last tie cycle was in 1995. Track condition varies, but track drainage is generally poor and it appears that routine maintenance is not being done. Many road crossings appear to require resleepering and drainage work and drains in cuttings are silted up to the point where ballast is being contaminated. Sleeper condition ranges from good to poor depending on drainage. A program of ballast cleaning would address the problems of contaminated ballast and poor drainage. The next tie cycle is presently programmed for 2007 with a replacement rate of 375 sleepers per km.

Maryborough to Dunolly (22 km) This section has Class 4, dual gauge track using 94 1b/yd rail. The last tie cycle was in 1995. Dual gauging of the track was completed in 1994. The sleeper condition is fair, with an average of 200 sleepers per km requiring replacement. The next tie cycle is programmed for 2003 to 2004. The ballast is sufficient and no drainage problems were noted.

Dunolly to St. Arnaud (53 km) This section has Class 3, broad gauge jointed track using 94 1b/yd rail. The last tie cycle was in 1995. The sleeper condition was assessed as requiring 210 sleepers per km. The next tie cycle is set for 2003/2004. Shoulder ballast is sufficient and anchoring is standard. A program of joint maintenance is required.

St. Arnaud to Curyo (111 km) This section has Class 3, broad gauge, jointed track using 94 1b/yd rail. The last tie cycle was in 1991. The sleepers were assessed to be in good condition with 55 sleepers per km requiring renewal. The next tie cycle is programmed for 2005. Shoulder ballast is sufficient and clean and anchoring is standard. Joint maintenance and tamping are needed.

Curyo to Ouyen (99 km) This section has Class 3, broad gauge, jointed track using 94 1b/yd rail. The last tie cycle was 1996 for Curyo to Woomelang (22km) and 1993 for Woomelang to Ouyen (77km). Sleeper quality deteriorates significantly through the section and was assessed as requiring 175 sleepers per km. Tie renewal within the next 18 months is recommended with a rate of at least 225 sleepers per km. The ballast is generally sufficient and the shoulders are in good

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 49 condition. The anchoring is to standard, but joint maintenance is required between Curyo and Woomelang

Ouyen to Mildura (100 km) This section has Class 3, broad gauge, jointed track using 94 1b/yd rail. The last tie cycle was in 1993. Sleeper quality between Ouyen and Mildura is generally very poor with many of the good bearers having been cross-bored and lesser quality sleepers having been shimmed to hold the track. Renewal is recommended as soon as possible and before any passenger service is restored. The ballast is generally sufficient, well drained and has good shoulders.

Photographs 5.1 (left) and 5.2 (right)

Poor sleeper condition on a section of the track near Hattah.

5.2.2 Bridges and Culverts

Freight and passenger trains currently operate between Melbourne and Ballarat via Bacchus Marsh and via North Geelong. The bridges and culverts in these sections of railway were not considered in this assessment on the basis that any reintroduced passenger services would impose no greater loading and no measurable increase in the rate of degradation of such structures.

During the field inspections, detailed examinations of each bridge and culvert were not undertaken because freight traffic currently operates between Ballarat and Mildura and the axle loads and impact factors for these trains would have no less adverse effect on bridges and culverts than any passenger train envisaged for a reintroduced passenger train service. The present permissible speeds between Ballarat and Mildura are the same for passenger trains and goods trains and it is understood that this condition applied when passenger rail services ceased. Reintroduction of passenger rail services at the previous allowable speeds would therefore impose no greater impact load than the present freight train operations.

Inspection of bridge files indicated that there are no outstanding major works required on bridges or culverts outside the scope of normal maintenance activities.

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 50 5.2.3 Level Crossings

Between North Geelong and Ballarat there are 19 PCRs (public roadway level crossings), 11 of which have automatic flashing light (FL) signals to warn motorists of the approach of trains.

From Ballarat to Mildura there are 223 PCRs, of which 53 have FLs, two have boom barriers (BBs) and two have interlocked gates (IGs). There are also four pedestrian level crossings which do not have active warning devices.

Between Sunshine and Ballarat there are 45 PCRs of which 19 have FLs and 5 BBs. These level crossings were not inspected because there are already passenger rail services operating. Studies for faster train services between Melbourne and Ballarat, which undoubtedly will affect these level crossings, have been undertaken as part of the Regional Fast Rail Project.

Automatically operated BBs and FLs are activated by an approaching train being detected by devices such as track circuits, train predictors, or treadle devices, and must give approximately 23 seconds warning time to motorists and pedestrians at a level crossing. The distance from the device to the level crossing depends on the speed of the approaching train and the present devices were set to the highest permitted line speeds for the particular section of track. When passenger trains ceased operations on the Mildura Line in 1993 and slower freight trains continued to operate, the devices were not repositioned to adjust the warning signal dwell times. This means that the devices do not have to be altered for the re- introduction of passenger services at the same operating speeds as in 1993. Bell blocks, insulated joints, or other detection devices would need re-positioning for increased train speeds.

Level crossing safety generally is the same for freight trains and passenger trains. Freight trains operate between Ballarat and Mildura and the current level crossing protection would be adequate for passenger trains operating at previous passenger train speeds. All active level crossing protection devices are required to be maintained by Freight Australia and no additional expenditure would be required for level crossings for the re-introduction of passenger services. If Sprinter cars are used as part of the re-introduced passenger/rail services, then the level crossing protection must be amenable to the operation of Sprinters.

5.2.4 Signalling

The signalling system between North Geelong “C” Signal Box and Mildura is summarised as follows: 14 Crossing Loops 33 Sidings 9Yards 5 Track Junctions 3 Interlockings 13 Signals

The signalling at the above locations is generally in a satisfactory condition although the controls of most sidings and some yards are mainly aged mechanical signalling. Crossing loops using trailable point controllers are a recent addition to the system and also operate satisfactorily.

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 51 With the exception of the major centres, the signalling is designed to be operated by train crews, and is appropriate for operating in a freight train environment.

Five crossing loops, namely Talbot, Dunolly, Emu, Watchem and Speed, which currently have a passenger platform would not be suitable for passenger operation without modification.

The trains are controlled by Train Orders issued from ‘Centrol’ in Melbourne and use block points at Lethbridge, Curyo, Gama, Ouyen and Yatpool, in addition to various light and mechanical signals as required at another 13 locations.

DICE control of points is in operation at Gheringhap and installed at Maryborough, but is not in use. All trailable crossing loops are equipped with TAILS for end of train detection.

5.2.5 Communications

Communication to the trains from Melbourne-based train controllers is via a UHF Non-urban Train Radio network that has base stations at Geelong, Mount Buninyong, Mount Hollowbach, Maryborough, View Point Hill, Birchip, Woomelang, Ouyen, Hattah and Mildura.

5.2.6 Station Buildings and Platforms

All stations and stops at and beyond Ballarat are listed in Table 5.1. Major stations are highlighted.

Table 5.1 - Passenger Stations and Stops Between Ballarat and Mildura Distance from Spencer Street Station

BALLARAT 118.8 Creswick 137.4 Clunes 155.5 Talbot 172.8 MARYBOROUGH 187.0 Bet Bet 201.7 Dunolly 209.0 Bealiba 228.6 Emu 240.7 ST. ARNAUD 262.1 Sutherland 273.4 Swanwater 280.8 Cope Cope 288.4

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 52 DONALD 300.5 Litchfield 315.7 Massey 324.2 Watchem 332.7 Morton Plains 340.5 BIRCHIP 352.4 Kinabulla 368.0 Curyo 373.2 Watchupga 384.7 Woomelang 395.0 Lascelles 406.6 Gama 415.2 Turriff 426.0 Speed 432.9 Tempy 439.4 Nunga 463.5 OUYEN 471.7 Kiamal 480.3 Hattah 506.0 Carwarp 541.1 Red Cliffs 557.9 Irymple 565.6 MILDURA 572.3

Ballarat Ballarat Station is a working station with all facilities necessary for a reintroduced passenger rail service to Mildura.

The lengths of the platforms at Ballarat would allow easy interchange between a train arriving from Mildura and the new fast trains that are to run between Ballarat and Melbourne. Rail to bus interchange is excellent as are waiting rooms and other amenities.

Maryborough The station building at Maryborough is one of the most attractive in Victoria and a major asset for any reintroduced passenger train service. The station has all the facilities necessary for a passenger rail service including its 320 metre long bluestone–edged platform and huge verandah. The condition of all facilities is satisfactory.

Photograph 5.3 Maryborough Railway Station

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 53 Dunolly The brick station building is in good condition and signs indicate that it houses a Freight Australia office. The 120 metre long bluestone and brick platform is in satisfactory condition as is its asphalt and gravel surface. There are light fittings along the platform which has water, toilets and fencing. The station has a gravelled car park.

St. Arnaud The length of the bluestone and brick–faced platform at St. Arnaud is adequate for any passenger train arrangement and the condition of the asphalt and gravel surface is suitable for immediate use. There are light fittings along the platform and water is available. There is evidence of toilets within the locked station buildings. The station car park is bitumen and gravel and is fitted with street lights.

Donald The 150 m long platform is predominantly bluestone coping on brickwork with a 40 metre section of concrete slabs with timber posts at the Melbourne end. The condition of the platform is satisfactory for immediate use. There are toilets, water and light fittings on the platform. The local bowling club is adjacent to the station and a steam locomotive is on display nearby. Car parking is available at the station.

Birchip The asphalt paved platform at Birchip is 108 metres long and its condition is satisfactory for passenger train usage. There are toilets and water and there are light fittings on the platform. There is adjacent car parking with street lights and the township is 200 metres away from the station.

Woomelang The passenger platform at Woomelang is 53 metres long and has a substantial verandah. There is a second platform 50 metres long off the loop road to serve trains travelling in the Down direction. The coping and facing of both platforms are satisfactory for passenger train use while the surface of the main platform needs minor work to level out and compact the gravel surface. There are light fittings on both platforms, but the power has been disconnected. The station building is in disrepair with broken windows.

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 54 Woomelang is currently a crossing loop which has trailable points which direct all Down trains on to the loop road and all Up trains onto the main platform road. The second platform serves down trains only. At most stations on the Mildura line, both Up and Down trains have access to the main platform, and there is some inconvenience where this is not available. At Woomelang, it would be necessary to replace the trailable points to gain such access. The type of signalling system adopted if passenger trains are re-introduced would influence greatly the cost of such replacement.

Speed The platform at Speed is 35 metres long. Its timber coping and gravel surface are in satisfactory condition. Electricity has been disconnected from the platform light fittings. The platform is approximately 80 metres off the highway. There are no buildings on the platform and there is a crossing loop with trailable points which prevents Down trains from accessing the platform. If passenger trains are to serve Speed, either the trailable points will have to be changed or a second platform will be required.

Ouyen The condition of the 250 metre long platform is satisfactory for immediate use. There are toilets, water, lighting and shelter and a footbridge at the Down end. There are shops 100 metres either side of the station, including a hotel.

Hattah Hattah Station has a 50 metre long platform which needs a little attention to improve the ramped access to the platform. Water is available and there is a locked toilet on the platform. A gravelled car park exists at the rear of the platform. There is no telephone and the verandah on the old timber building provides some shelter. Replacement of the decrepit waiting shelter would be appropriate.

Red Cliffs Red Cliffs Station has a 200 metre long platform which is in a condition satisfactory for use. A portion of the old station building is leased as a craft shop and the condition appears not to require any major work if it is required for purposes associated with the reintroduction of passenger rail services. The retention of the craft shop could add to the attraction of a rail service. The station also has a VLP waiting room, water, toilets (locked), off-street car parking and lighting.

Irymple Irymple is included in this audit because it was available as a stopping point (on request only) when passenger trains last ran to Mildura in 1993. Today, because Irymple is close to Mildura (6.7 km) it is doubtful if reopening this station could be justified.

The platform at Irymple is approximately 120 metres long and would need minor repairs to the platform surface.

The platform has lighting standards to which the power supply has been disconnected, water and toilets, but the toilet rooms have been smashed. A gravelled car park is available. There are no telephones, nearby shops or amenities. The station itself is fairly isolated and is surrounded by vineyards and factories for the production of dried fruits.

Mildura The station is in excellent condition and would require little to reintroduce passenger rail services other than to be switched in as an intermediate block point to enable passenger trains Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 55 to operate into and out of Mildura when freight activities are being carried out between Mildura and Yelta.

Photograph 5.4 (left) and 5.5 (right) Left: Mildura Station Platform. Right: Siding to Carriage Shed and Turntable

5.2.7 Support Facilities

Support facilities at Melbourne such as for cleaning, catering, train crews, locomotive and carriage inspection and maintenance and stabling have been assumed to be sufficient for passenger services to Mildura. The scale of current support activities is illustrated by the present level of service for rail between Melbourne and Ballarat which has ten trains each weekday in each direction with an additional twelve each way for Melton and Bacchus Marsh. Similarly, the facilities at Ballarat and Maryborough appear adequate for likely demands at those intermediate locations.

In Mildura the facilities which would support passenger services, such as the Carriage Shed and sidings are not in use and would require minor renewal works to restore them to service. 5.3 Options for Restoration of Passenger Rail Services

In terms of infrastructure, three options for reintroducing passenger rail services between Ballarat and Mildura have been identified:

• Do nothing • Operate passenger rail as it was prior to suspension of service • Operate passenger rail on Class 2 track at speeds of 115 km/h for locomotive hauled trains and 130 km/h for diesel rail cars.

For each of the operational options there are additional considerations. One of these is the times of day and days of the week on which services are provided. Community representatives in the service area have indicated that, at least initially, service three days per week would suffice until it can be seen if a restored service will be well used. The time of day, however, is not so clear, with strong support for an overnight service as well as for a daytime service. The service suspended in 1993 was an overnight service with a train departing Mildura at 9.00 pm on Monday, Wednesday, Friday and Sunday and arriving at Melbourne at 6.40 the following morning. Similarly, a train left Melbourne at 9.45 pm Tuesday, Thursday, Friday and Sunday and arrived at Mildura at 7.30 am the following day. These trains offered minimal opportunity for service at intervening stops because of the Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 56 inconvenient times and also conflicted with the freight trains which generally operate at night to allow shunting operations during the day. A daytime service could leave either end of the line in the morning and be at the other end by mid to late afternoon, serve intermediate stops and have less interference with freight operations. Choices of time of day and days of week will require further study, but do not affect the infrastructure costs.

A second consideration is a choice of rollingstock for the service. The earlier passenger services used locomotives and various carriages to provide first and second class seating as well as sleeping accommodation. Trains using locomotives and carriages are still a possibility and could operate at speeds up to 115 km/h under present rules. The other rollingstock possibility is to use diesel rail cars for which speeds up to 130 km/h are presently allowed. As with the timetable choices, those for rollingstock do not have a significant effect on what must be done to the infrastructure to restore passenger services.

Each of the three infrastructure options is discussed in the following sections.

5.3.1 Do Nothing

If nothing is done to restore passenger rail service between Ballarat and Mildura, the railway will continue to operate for freight only. The stations can be expected to continue to deteriorate from vandalism and lack of use, and travel will be accommodated by coaches, coaches connecting with trains, cars and airlines. The highway based modes have risks of accidents significantly greater than rail travel and more adverse environmental impacts in terms of noise and emissions. The airlines operate at significantly higher economic and environmental costs. It is also suspected that some travel is completely barred by lack of rail service because people who lack access to a car, cannot or will not travel by coach and cannot afford air travel.

Under this option there is no capital or maintenance cost to the government, Freight Australia or a service provider. No rail passenger service is provided north of Ballarat.

5.3.2 Passenger Rail Operated at Speeds as Before Suspension of Service

5.3.2.1 Operating Scenario

For the purposes of analysis it was assumed that the base-line scenario for restoration of passenger services on the Mildura Line would be trains running to the timetable in effect at the cessation of service in 1993. This does not mean, necessarily, at the same times of the day, but to approximately the same speeds and elapsed times between stations. The elapsed time, via Geelong, was 9h 45m for the distance of 608.8 km, which is an average speed of 63.4 km/h.

Based on these operating scenarios, Class 4 track, on which passenger trains may operate at speeds up to 80 km/h and freight trains at speeds up to 65 km/h, will suffice for restored service. The existing track generally meets or exceeds Class 4 standard.

5.3.2.2 Initial works

To restore passenger services to the Mildura line it would be necessary to improve certain elements of the infrastructure. These include, primarily, the track, selected stations and support facilities. In addition to the initial works, there will be ongoing activities for their

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 57 maintenance. The works and maintenance tasks are reviewed in terms of the elements previously inspected:

• Track • Bridges and Culverts • Level Crossings • Signals • Communications • Stations • Support Facilities

Track Trackwork between Spencer Street Station and Ballarat via Geelong and via Ballan is all Class 2 track which is suitable for operating loco hauled carriages at 115 kph and Sprinter cars at 130 kph. No additional track work is required on these sections to reintroduce passenger trains to Mildura. Also, if the section of track between North Geelong and Ballarat was maintained to this standard there would be no additional cost required for the initial running of passenger trains if this route is selected. However the track inspection carried out reveals that this standard is not being adhered to regarding regular maintenance.

For the Ballarat to Maryborough section, the present condition is considered adequate for the operation of passenger trains at the 1993 authorised speeds, which were 80 km/h, except between Donald and Birchip which was 70 km/h, and no work additional to the current track maintenance regime is required.

The section between Maryborough and St Arnaud (75 km) will require spot tamping for 15 km of track.

The track between St Arnaud and Curyo (111 km) will require spot tamping to 45 km of its length and ballast top up of 2250 cubic metres.

North of Curyo, considerably more sleepers and ballast are required before resumption of 80 kph passenger trains.

From Curyo to Mildura (199 km) spot surfacing of the track is required for a total of 25 km between Curyo and Ouyen, which requires 1,250 cubic metres of ballast, regulating and routine renewal of 2,010 sleepers, 25% of which will require fastenings replacement. In addition, however, a major tie cycle is required to replace sleepers at the rate of 350 per kilometre between Ouyen and Mildura (35,000 sleepers). The tie cycle includes cyclic surfacing of the track which requires supply and regulating of an additional 5,000 cubic metres of ballast. An allowance of 25% of fastenings is also required.

Bridges and Culverts Bridges and culverts between Melbourne and Ballarat, both via Bacchus Marsh and via Geelong are required to be maintained to a standard that is commensurate with loco-hauled passenger trains generally operated at 115 kph and Sprinter trains operated at 130 kph.

Reintroduction of passenger services to Mildura will require no higher demand for initial or ongoing maintenance activities than is currently required.

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 58 Level Crossings There are 223 PCR’s between Ballarat and Mildura of which 57 have active protection in the form of interlocked gates, boom barriers or flashing lights.

All of the automatic warning devices in existence at the time passenger services were discontinued, were set for the previous passenger train line speeds and therefore do not require re-setting to reintroduce passenger trains at the previous timetable conditions. Three additional flashing lights, at Km 76.631, 172.538 and 563.339, have been added since 1993 and boom barriers have replaced the interlocked gates at McArthur Street in Ballarat. Timing for these new devices has been set to accommodate the prevailing track speed and will be acceptable for restored passenger rail service. An allowance has been made in the estimates to verify that level crossings are fit for passenger service.

Signalling The signalling to restore passenger services at the speeds used at their cessation in 1993 would involve providing for train access to platforms at five stations and minor modifications to safeworking procedures. The principal concern is the treatment of crossing loops at stations to allow trains in either the Up or Down direction to travel on the track adjacent to the platform. This requirement is met at the stations designated as mandatory stops.

Safeworking Train operations on the Mildura line north of Ballarat are controlled by verbal Train Orders issued via Non-urban Train Radio from Centrol in Melbourne. The verbal Train Order system is adequate for the restoration of passenger services with one exception. At present the line north of Yatpool, through Mildura to Yelta is considered as one “block” for operational control. To allow passenger trains into and out of Mildura while freight trains are operating between Mildura and Yelta, it will be necessary to divide this block into two parts – one from Yatpool to Mildura, and the other from Mildura to Yelta.

Communications No modifications to the ten Non-urban Train Radio base stations serving the Mildura Line will be required for restoration of passenger service. Minor modifications for passenger information systems are programmed.

Stations Stations between Spencer Street Station and Ballarat that were served by Mildura passenger trains both via Geelong and via Bacchus Marsh have had continuous passenger usage and it is considered that these stations require no additional work if Mildura passenger service is reinstated.

In general the work required at stations between Ballarat and Mildura to reintroduce passenger rail services to Mildura is relatively minor by comparison with other cost items such as trackwork. Of the stations reviewed in this study, the most consistent work required is the restoration of lighting. The restoration of lighting will consist mainly of re-wiring existing light poles, replacement of fittings and/or globes and reconnection of electricity.

Other work including provision of a supplementary platform (or removal of trailable points), repairing platform surfacing, providing shelters, repairing smashed windows and providing seating is also required.

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 59 Support Facilities For the reintroduction of passenger rail services to Mildura the following support facilities are expected to be required.

• Train crew accommodation • Car parks for patrons • Carriage shed • Turntable • Motorail facilities • Catering

There are currently no train crew facilities for the Mildura line and drivers return home each night by swapping trains and returning to their respective depots. The exception to this is Maryborough drivers who sometimes stay overnight in Melbourne.

With passenger services to Mildura there may be a need for crew accommodation depending on whether day or night, early or late, fast or slow services are provided. Present plans are to arrange with a local hotel or motel for the necessary accommodation.

Car parking will be required at railway stations and it was noted during the field inspections that the majority of stations have sufficient, suitably surfaced land for the expected number of cars. The issue of security for parked cars was not addressed because it is not provided at other railway stations and it is highly likely that if security could not be justified elsewhere it would not be warranted on the lightly-used service for the Mildura line.

The carriage shed at the down end of Mildura is in good condition and has all cleaning facilities including those for emptying toilet retention tanks. It has water and power outlets for various methods of cleaning and replacing drinking water etc. The existing facility would require minimal work to become fully operational.

At the Down end of the carriage shed is a relatively new turntable which may be of use depending on what types of passenger trains are chosen for the new service. The turntable appears to be serviceable without any work being required.

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 60 There are two car ramps at Mildura for loading / unloading cars from both levels of car-carrier wagons. These ramps are manually wheeled into position at the end of the car wagons and will not need much more than new tyres to return them to service if a Motorail service is to be provided.

Catering will require ongoing maintenance whether it is on-board or at stations. It has been assumed that the provision of such catering will be made on commercial grounds and the ongoing costs will be reflected in the prices charged. On this basis, no allowance has been made in the estimates for provision or ongoing maintenance of catering facilities.

5.3.2.3 Initial restoration costs

The preliminary restoration cost estimate for the Mildura line is $5.5 million.

5.3.2.4 Maintenance

The maintenance for passenger train operations are primarily for track maintenance which includes:

• Track inspection • Routine track maintenance • Routine spot surfacing • Supply of ballast • Ballast regulating • Tamping at turnouts • Thermit welding • Joint maintenance • Routine spot sleeper renewals • Major or “cyclic” sleeper renewals • Major or “cyclic” surfacing

For the 453 km of track between Ballarat and Mildura, provision has been made for labour for an additional weekly inspection patrol and an additional four-person track maintenance crew. It is assumed that the vehicles, equipment, spare parts and support facilities for these can be provided from existing track maintenance resources.

Surfacing, ballast supply and ballast regulating were treated as being continuous with 20% of the track being surfaced each year as necessary and as determined by track inspection.

Similarly, for turnouts a continuous program of tamping each turnout once every five years was budgeted.

A program of eliminating an estimated 300 short closure rails over a period of five years is proposed to improve track quality and reliability. A ten-year program of joint maintenance is also proposed and budgeted.

Spot renewal of failed sleepers is an ongoing activity which has been estimated at the rate of 10 sleepers per km for the 199 km of track between Curyo and Mildura, and at the rate of 5 sleepers per km for the 254 km of track between Ballarat and Curyo.

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 61 In addition to the continuous tasks of track maintenance, it will be necessary to have cyclic or major tie renewals at average intervals of seven years. A seven-year cycle has been used for estimating and five segments of track:

Length Rate Segment (km) (ties/km)

Ballarat to Maryborough 68 275 Maryborough to St Arnaud 75 225 St Arnaud to Curyo 111 225 Curyo to Ouyen 99 250 Ouyen to Mildura 100 350

For each cyclic renewal there are five items:

• Supply and installation of sleepers • Replacement of fastenings on 25% of the renewed sleepers • Supply of ballast • Ballast regulating • Track surfacing

Cyclic tie renewals are planned to begin in 2002 because the initial renewal for the Ouyen/Mildura segment is considered to be necessary before restoration of passenger service and is scheduled for 2001.

With restoration of passenger services, maintenance costs for bridges, culverts, level crossings, signals and communications are not expected to vary materially from those now experienced with freight operations.

The maintenance of stations is expected to be by contract to people in the same or nearby towns as the stations. At each station, other than Maryborough and Mildura which are already fully maintained, it will be necessary to provide rubbish removal, landscape maintenance, replacement of light globes and minor cleaning and maintenance of the signs and structures, including removal of graffiti. Station maintenance also includes work on buildings, copings, platform surfaces, car parks, minor electrical repairs and plumbing.

An allowance has been made to maintain the carriage shed and related facilities in Mildura.

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 62 5.3.3 Passenger Rail at 115/130 km/h

5.3.3.1 Operating Scenario

For upgraded passenger services between Melbourne and Mildura an operating scenario has been defined in which the line speeds are increased to 115 km/h for locomotive-drawn trains and 130 km/h for diesel railcars – i.e. all track is constructed and maintained to Class 2 standard. A simulation model of trains operating under this scenario was created and indicated that via Geelong the 608.8 km trip would require 6 hours 40 minutes for an average speed of 91.3 km/h for a locomotive-drawn train and 5 hours 59 minutes for an average speed of 101.7 km/h for a diesel railcar. Travelling via Bacchus Marsh the 572.3 km trip would require 6 hours 20 minutes for an average speed of 90.4 km/h for a locomotive drawn train and 5 hours 45 minutes for an average speed of 99.5 km/h for a diesel rail car. These trip times are up to 4 hours faster than the scheduled trip times when the service was discontinued in 1993. They have been represented in the passenger travel demand analysis as 6 hours and 30 minutes to simplify the calculations. Connections with the Regional Fast Rail services between Ballarat and Melbourne could provide further time savings of up to 30 minutes

5.3.3.2 Initial Works

Upgrading passenger services refers specifically to the objective of reducing travel times by means of increasing train speeds, reducing dwell times at stations and minimising delay times at crossing loops and railway junctions. For this assessment, upgrading passenger services excludes peripheral service improvements such as:

• Providing an asphalt surface to a previously gravelled platform. • Replacing a bus stop – type shelter on a platform with an air-conditioned waiting room. • Providing station toilets, telephones, ticketing, etc where none was provided at the time of reintroduction of passenger services. • Providing station staff.

It is considered therefore that platforms, station buildings, car parks, lighting and train operation support facilities would require only re-commissioning work to accommodate faster trains.

In the context of increasing train speeds the following issues have been addressed:

• Improving track structure for the safe and comfortable running of faster passenger trains. • Checking that bridge and culvert maintenance work is up to date. • Adjusting the position of the activators for automatic flashing lights and boom barriers to ensure that the minimum 25 second warning time is maintained. • Notification to road authorities for the purpose of publicity and signage erection on road approaches to level crossings warning of changed traffic conditions i.e. faster trains operating at level crossings not protected by boom barriers, flashing lights or interlocked gates. • Replacement of trailable points and other main line crossingwork with higher speed turnouts.

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 63 Track Spencer Street to Ballarat via Bacchus Marsh The track between Spencer Street and Ballarat via Bacchus Marsh is designated Class 2 and therefore fit for passenger train operation up to 115 km/h and for Sprinters up to 130 km/h

Spencer Street to Ballarat via Geelong The track between Spencer Street and Ballarat via Geelong is designated Class 2 and therefore fit for 115/130 km/h passenger train operations.

In addition to the trackwork required to permit the reintroduction of passenger services at 80 kph, the following work requires completion before loco-hauled passenger trains can operate at 115 kph or Sprinter-type cars can operate at 130 kph, i.e. a Class 2 track:

Ballarat to Mildura (453 km) • Spot surfacing for a total of 74 km between Ballarat and Curyo (254 km). • Ballast regulating for spot surfacing. • Supply ballast for spot tamping – 3700 tonne. • Ballast cleaning and drainage for 60 km (start of 5 year program). • Supply ballast for ballast cleaner at a rate of 800 tonne / km. • Tamping, regulating and welding for ballast cleaner. • Sleeper renewal for ballast cleaning at a rate of 50 sleepers / km. • Cyclic sleeper renewals Curyo – Ouyen (101 km) – 25,250 sleepers. • Replacement of fastenings for 25% of new sleepers. • Cyclic surfacing 101 km track. • Ballast supply for cyclic tamping at 50 tonne / km • Ballast regulating for cyclic tamping.

This work is essentially track maintenance and its cost has been treated as a maintenance cost rather than a capital expenditure.

Bridges and Culverts Bridges and culverts are required to be inspected at least once every three years at which time every structural member is checked for serviceability. Every member that displays any significant degradation from its original state is assessed in accordance with established guidelines and marked accordingly:

• Urgent (U) • Early (E) • Replace (X) • Note (/)

Urgent work needs to be carried out within seven days or earlier. Urgent work is kept under constant close observation until made good and accepted. Some urgent work calls for cessation of train services (or road traffic in the case of road overline bridges) until the member is replaced, strengthened or propped.

“Early” work is judged as requiring replacement within six months and “Replace (X)” requires replacement before the next inspection cycle in three years’ time. “Noted” members are kept under casual observation.

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 64 For 115 kph operation of loco-hauled passenger carriages and 130 kph operation of Sprinter cars it is considered that all Urgent and Early work should be completed. In the event that Urgent or Early work arises after 115 or 130 kph train speeds are introduced, speed reduction should be considered until the faults are rectified.

A review of the bridge and major culvert files held by SKM shows no outstanding urgent or early work. In any event the track access provider is also responsible for the maintenance of the fixed infrastructure and it is the access provider’s responsibility to offer a track which is fit for purpose to the operator.

Level Crossings It is understood that the present positions of bell blocks using mechanical insulated rail joints – which activate automatic flashing lights and boom barriers – were established on the basis of the official line speeds for passenger trains in operation in 1993. If locomotive – hauled passenger cars are to operate at 115 kph and diesel railcars are to operate at 130 kph, then to maintain the minimum warning time at level crossings fitted with active warning devices will require relocation of the bell blocks a further distance from those crossings.

The speed increase from 80 kph to 130 kph will require significant increases in the length of the approach track of the existing level crossing protection system to provide the specified warning times. The work required is to relocate the insulated joints of 14 approach tracks currently installed on straight sections where the speed will be upgraded.

It is assumed that speed through station precincts and the existing curve speeds will remain the same as at present at 80 kph, which will require no adjustment to level crossings within these areas.

The use of diesel rail cars will require the functionality of the existing track circuits, over which the lighter rail vehicles will travel, to be tested and shunting adjustments to be checked to assure their proper operation.

It is recommended that, with the increase in rail vehicle speed, VicRoads assess the rail corridor with a view to insuring that the existing number of protected road/rail crossings is adequate for the upgraded service.

Signalling The signalling upgrade to increase the train speed on the Ballarat to Mildura train corridor and permit locomotive hauled trains a maximum speed of 115 kph and diesel rail cars a maximum speed of 130 kph, does not include the cost associated with the alteration of signalling systems for the restoration of the passenger service to operate at 80 kph.

Signalling systems on the existing corridor are mainly mechanically controlled and operated systems which vary in age, some over 50 years old, and the former passenger timetable allowed 9h 45m to complete the journey with a maximum speed of 80 kph. The increased maximum speed of 130 kph will significantly increase the stress on the existing signalling infrastructure. Running trains at speeds of 130 kph therefore requires that the current design of signalling equipment and the related control equipment be fit for the upgraded service and able to support the high speed function. Signalling systems used must be carefully considered and suitable for the faster operation.

The elements of the signalling that will be affected by the upgrade are as follows;

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 65 • Trailable point controls • Standard main line points • Station and yard interlockings • Protected level crossings • Siding and crossing access

Risks associated with the introduction of the faster trains on this corridor must be assessed and quantified, especially with the introduction of new light weight rolling stock.

Train Crossing Sites Train crossing sites on the Ballarat to Mildura section are currently well catered for with thirty two (32) crossing sites available on the corridor. The 12 trailable points crossing loops, although operationally flexible, are operated by the locomotive moving through the points at the restricted speeds listed below:

Diverging Speed (km/hr) Straight Speed (km/hr) • Over Facing Points 40 80 • Over Trailing Points 40 65 (until loco clears points) • Over Trailing Points 40 80 (when loco has cleared points)

Suppliers have advised that the existing trailing points mechanisms at the crossing loops are not designed to operate at speeds over 80 kph.

The 32 crossing loops, yards and sidings cater for train lengths between 300 m to 1100 m and therefore adequate crossing sites exist for an upgraded passenger service. An improvement of train transit time, however, requires the loops with trailable points to be altered to allow all through trains to move via the straight rail section and only to use the diverging move for crossing trains and local pick up and shunting traffic.

As noted already, five crossing loops will not allow passenger access for flagged stations and will require crossing loop points signalling controls to be altered.

The alteration options for the changes to trailable points are as follows:

• Key release operation of non trailable points by train or station staff and hand operation. • Electric operation of points and local push button control by train or station staff. • Remote control and indication of electric points from a designated location.

It is possible to use a combination of the above options to reflect the traffic pattern required.

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 66 Operating Procedures Given the proposed increase of speed and number of trains, the existing Train Order procedure will need to be reviewed by the operator’s train safety management.

An additional block point at Mildura to cater for additional passenger service in the Mildura area has been recommended as part of the restoration of passenger rail service. The proposed addition of four (4) passenger trains at specified times, will introduce four extra crossing moves between Ballarat and Mildura. The new services will affect crossings of goods and passenger services in the vicinity of St. Arnaud, Birchip and Woomelang. The new passenger service and associated crossing locations will require the position of block points to be revisited and addressed within the Train Order procedures for the corridor.

The Non-urban Train Radio train to base system which supports the train orders will not need to be altered for the speed upgrade.

Signalling Equipment Upgrade Summary The following signalling equipment modifications will be required for increased passenger train speeds:

• Replace the trailing loops points controllers with either non-trailable point controllers with staff lock control mechanisms or electric point motors with local control. • Remotely control selected crossing sites for movement of passenger and goods services to provide a positive method of train control. • Provide positive point locking mechanisms for standard main line and roll out protection to cater for the speed increase. • Upgrade signalling equipment at major station yards such as Dunolly, Donald, Ouyen, Red Cliffs and Irymple with electric signals and motorised points to replace existing mechanical signalling to ensure necessary and proven technology for the upgraded speed.

Communications The communication system as proposed in the restoration of passenger service will be adequate for the upgraded service and no alterations are expected.

Stations No modification to stations is required for train operations at increased speeds.

Support Facilities No modification to support facilities is required for train operations at increased speeds.

5.3.3.3 Additional Costs for 115/130 km/h Service

Additional costs for increasing train speeds to 115/130 km/h is estimated at $2.2 million, giving a total estimated requirement of $7.7 million.

5.3.3.4 Maintenance

To maintain Class 2 track for the upgraded service there will be ongoing work in addition to the ongoing work required to maintain the track for 80 km/h service. This means that in the first year of operation of 115 / 130 km/h (2002) the following additional work will be required:

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 67 • Spot surfacing • Switch tamping • Thermit welding • Routine sleeper renewals • Joint maintenance • Routine track maintenance • Additional inspection patrols • Ballast cleaning • Cyclic sleeper renewals Curyo – Ouyen • Cyclic surfacing Curyo – Ouyen.

Additional maintenance costs for faster train operation are expected only for the track. Bridges, culverts, level crossings, signals, communications, stations and support facilities are not expected to require any more maintenance because of higher speed train operations. However, for track, maintenance costs are increased, primarily because the average tie cycle shortens to five years.

In addition to the more frequent tie renewal cycles, it is recommended that for higher speed operation a program of ballast cleaning and drainage improvement be undertaken over a period of five years for 60 km of the 68 km of track between Ballarat and Maryborough. The work would be suspended for the years in which tie cycles are carried out in this segment.

For the first five years the maintenance costs for 115/130 km/h train operations will be essentially the same as for 80 km/h operations plus the ballast cleaning program, but from 2006 renewal of sleepers will be two years earlier.

5.4 Service Restoration Program

Some of the salient features of the three options for passenger rail service on the Mildura Line are summarised in Table 5.3.

Table 5.3 - Railway Infrastructure Assessment for Restoration of Service Mildura Line Summary of Restoration Options

TRACK MAX TRAVEL TIME PRELIMINARY OPTION CLASS TRAIN SPEED CAPITAL COST Pass. Freight N/A - 0 - 1. Do Nothing 3 100 km/h 85 km/h 2. Restore 3 100 km/h 85 km/h 9h 21m $ 5,500,000 Passenger Service 3. Upgrade 2 115/130 80 km/h 6h 20m $ 2,200,200 Passenger km/h with locomotive (additional) Service 5h 45m $ (7,700,000 with DMU total)

Restoration of rail service to the 1993 speeds is the lower cost investment option. Although it is possible that passenger service could be provided at a lower capital cost than the $5,500,000 indicated, the ride quality in some sections of the track is considered unacceptable Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 68 for passenger service. Restoration of service with a poor ride quality can be expected to discourage its use by all but the most dedicated rail travellers. However, even with improved track, this option indicates a trip time between Melbourne and Mildura of over nine hours which is not competitive with travel by car or coach. Thus, this option seems unlikely to attract riders from the highway modes and therefore unlikely to have much chance of success. It could reduce marginally the economic costs of travel along the railway corridor.

The option to provide an upgraded passenger service offers the best prospect for rail travel between Mildura and Melbourne because at less than six hours for the trip, it is competitive with travel by road. By attracting riders to rail this option increases both the financial and economic benefits of rail and offers the best prospect of recovering part of its operating costs.

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 69 6. CONCLUSIONS

6.1 Preferred Option

The preceding discussion suggests that the re-introduction of passenger rail services to Mildura could most cost effectively be achieved by upgrading track to allow a faster train service to be reintroduced, including both night and day services.

The preliminary estimated capital cost is $7.7 million which is subject to market testing and evaluation. Ongoing track maintenance costs would also be higher and would include a major tie renewal program at an early stage.

The existing package of road coach services to Mildura is currently subsidised on an ongoing basis. The re-introduction of passenger train services as described in this report would increase the required total subsidy across train and coach services. The main reasons for the higher costs are:

• The costs of maintaining track to a suitable standard. • The higher costs of rail vehicles compared with road coaches.

These operating subsidies have been assessed and would be finalised through a competitive tendering process, in the event that passenger train services were introduced.

The principal towns along the line and the populations as recorded at the last census in 1996 are as follows.

Maryborough 7,381 Dunolly 668 Creswick 2,327 Clunes 846 St. Arnaud 2,638 Donald 1,383 Birchip 800 Woomelang * Speed * Ouyen 1,251 Hattah * Red Cliffs 2,553 Irymple 1,095 Mildura 24,142 ------45,084 Notes *Less than 500

In addition, there are more distant townships and rural populations that could potentially benefit from a train. For example it would be expected that passengers from Merbein with a population of 1,736 would make the short trip to Mildura to join a train.

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 70 The upgraded passenger train service would substantially reduce travel times between Mildura and Melbourne.

Some additional passenger transfers between coaches and trains might be required at Ballarat.

The majority of passengers would be likely to use the proposed train services while the remainder would continue on coach services. Those using the train would enjoy the greater ease of boarding and alighting and the greater in-vehicle comfort but may find stations to be of a less convenient access point than bus stops in the “main street”.

It is estimated that the upgraded train service would carry 71,000 passengers per annum.

6.2 Implementation Issues

Re-commencement of passenger train services would involve the following steps:

• A tender process to identify a preferred train operator. • Detailed service design • Finalisation of costs with stakeholders • Track access arrangements • Completion of gauge standardisation works • Track upgrading works • Procurement of new rollingstock

This process could be completed in 3-4 years.

Review of Country Passenger Rail Services – Mildura Line 71