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Risk Is Opportunity EXPOSURERisk Is Opportunity 04 THE NEXT BIG ONE Navigating the protracted soft market 10 EUROPEAN FLOOD Understanding flood risk correlations 16 GROWTH STRATEGIES How exposure management tools can assist Foreword Contents Welcome to the first edition of Exposure, the new RMS publication on catastrophe and risk management practices. Exposure complements our Horizons series, now 4 The next big one? in its sixth edition, which provides, more in-depth What's needed to transform the reinsuance cycle coverage of RMS research and development insights. Both publications represent a continuation of our commitment to an informed market empowered by 6 U.S. coastal flood: Rising up the agenda objective data and science-driven models provided with the highest levels of openness and transparency. In this edition of Exposure, we focus on the theme 8 The next step in convergence that risk is opportunity. Now more than ever, the market is seeking to avoid surprises, improve business performance and innovate to create new opportunities 10 Spatial correlation, risk and opportunity: Europe flood for growth. At RMS, we are pleased to offer an expanding range of solutions to ensure a vital and growing risk and insurance industry. 12 Accounting for extra-tropical transitioning of typhoons in Japan The industry is truly at an inflection point. In the years to come, I am confident we will look back at this era of rapid change and see a time when 14 In-house catastrophe models offer many benefits the industry seized the moment to innovate and increase its relevance. Most of the world is under- for Solvency II or uninsured. Rapid changes in globalization have introduced new risks and created new imperatives to increase resiliency. Shifts in the structure of our 16 Beware the private catastrophe: Managing exposures economies, from assets to networks at risk, digital and otherwise, are creating new demand that can and must be met by the talent and capital within 18 Learning from New Zealand to avoid surprises the market. And technology, data and analytics are transforming what is possible to achieve. 20 How can insurers help drive the resilience I hope you find this edition of Exposure a valuable resource as you continue to improve your risk analytics revolution? capabilities and model risks into opportunities for your business. Hemant Shah President, CEO and Co-Founder RMS, Inc. The next big one? Rather than waiting for the next elusive hard market, successful (re)insurers are focusing on making informed underwriting decisions and taking well-calculated risks, according to Ben Brookes, vice president of capital markets. A popular topic of conversation at protracted soft market, in addition to A surprise event is the one you don't the big industry gatherings is when excess capacity and heightened com- see coming and is the one most likely the next "big one" will occur. What petition within the reinsurance sector. to change the market. Given the size and nature of loss could reverse quickly evolving nature of emerging the softening trend and see a return At the time of writing, and approaching risks such as cyber and pandemic, to hard market pricing? The influx of the peak of the 2016 Atlantic hurricane in addition to more traditional perils, alternative capital into the reinsur- season, the National Oceanic and such a loss could arise from numerous ance market over the past decade has Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) sources. Increasing insurance penetration transformed the traditional reinsurance revised its annual forecast, increasing in emerging markets has increased the cycle with no guarantee a market peak the probability of an above-average assets-at-risk of natural catastrophes will follow the current trough. season from 30% to 35%. NOAA expects and the potential for major losses from the 2016 season to be the most active regions that have been traditionally Insured catastrophe losses over the hurricane season since 2012. However, regarded as "non-peak." past few years have been signifi- forecasts are just forecasts, and there cantly below average, particularly in is significant doubt over whether a "It therefore appears 5 comparison to major loss years such U.S. hurricane on its own could turn as 2005 and 2011. The majority of the market – particularly because U.S. increasingly unlikely the large-scale events during this time hurricane is one of the best-understood industry will again see have resulted in a relatively low level and well-modeled perils, making this a a market adjustment in terms of the structural integrity of the market, it also means Initiatives such as the RMS(one) platform aim to make it of insurance claims due to the fact they scenario the market can manage. reinsurance companies are faced with the prospect that easier for (re)insurers to establish and institutionalize global, have occurred in areas where insurance on the scale that was current soft market conditions will continue to prevail and customized views of risk, as well as lowering the barrier for penetration is low. Commenting on the 2016 hurricane last witnessed in 2001 are, in essence, the new normal. implementing and deploying self-developed probabilistic forecasts, Mark Powell, vice president and 2005 due to the models. "There is significant of product management for RMS In such an environment, risk selection and risk-adequate HWind, said, “I fully expect activity to industry's fundamentally pricing are all-important, and there is very little margin for Driving value out of these model output-based decisions doubt over whether a ramp up by Labor Day, we are all geared altered capital structure." error. Competition in the reinsurance space is now a race will be the main differentiator as reinsurers navigate and U.S. hurricane landfalling up to assimilate into HWind, real-time to broaden insurance coverage, searching for new business make sense of the new reinsurance environment. One such on its own could turn measurements from the Air Force and Given the way in which the industry in new territories and risk classes, rather than a race to the opportunity, discussed later in this magazine, is the ability NOAA hurricane hunters as well as has changed and the ability of capital bottom with reinsurers competing on price alone. to understand the "spatial correlation" of European flood the market – particularly several satellite remote sensing to move quickly into the industry post- risk in order to gain a diversification benefit and make quick because U.S. hurricane observing platforms. We're also focus- event, even a major shock or series of Modeling, data and analytics offer a competitive advantage and strategic M&A decisions by analyzing exposure data in is one of the best- ing efforts on reconstructing iconic shocks may not have the same impact to those reinsurers that use them to make informed decisions real time. historical hurricane landfall events to on the reinsurance cycle that it did in and take informed risks. Underwriters are scrutinizing understood and well- provide insurers with observation-based the past. Insurance-linked securities model output more than ever before, overlaying their own In a market coming to terms with this "new normal" of lower modeled perils, making hurricane wind footprints.” (ILS) fund managers continue to line assumptions and risk tolerance and looking for unexpected margins, but serving an increasingly important role in creat- this a scenario the market up capital ready to be deployed the correlations between books of business to avoid being ing a safer society through broader coverage, the importance What we do know is that market- minute there is any indication of price disproportionately impacted by any one event, and avoiding of effective catstrophe risk quantification and management can manage." changing events are often surprise hardening. the private catastrophe. has never been greater. losses, revealing unknown accumula- Recent frequency of North Atlantic tions lurking in reinsurance portfolios. It therefore appears increasingly unlikely The ability to customize and blend multiple models allows hurricanes, typically a significant driver Historical examples included Hurricane the industry will again see a market users to tailor the models to their own view of risk, and Ben Brookes is vice president of RMS Capital of insurance industry catastrophe losses, Katrina's ability to overcome the defenses adjustment on the scale that was last complement and build on the insights from sophisticated Markets. He also leads the design and development has been below average, with last in New Orleans and the 9/11 terrorist witnessed in 2001 and 2005 due to the exposure and accumulation management techniques, with of the ILS portfolio management functionality in year's record El Niño one factor behind attacks on the New York World Trade industry's fundamentally altered cap- increasingly real-time views of portfolio risk. RMS(one)®. the low number of tropical cyclones. Centers. ital structure. While this is a good thing These conditions have resulted in a EXPOSURE / RMS.COM coast. Here, where many FEMA high-risk flood zones (A and V) are located, NFIP participation ranges from 10 percent to 70 percent, Advice to (re)insurers looking to grow a according to RMS. It is also an area for which model vendors coastal flood portfolio have developed a number of advanced flood analytics, from probabilistic models to hazard data, both of which provide a U.S. coastal flood: Collect high-quality, flood-relevant exposure more comprehensive view of the coastal flood risk landscape data. and enable private carriers to quantify coastal flood risk more accurately. • Knowing precise location and elevation information, such as distance to coast and Probabilistic storm surge models are widely available in the the agenda the presence of local flood defenses, is Rising up market today. Often integrated with a broader hurricane or wind just as important as knowing the structural model solution, they provide frequency, severity and uncertainty profile.
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