$14.95 JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 FLIGHT PATHS FORWARD CLIMBING OUT OF COVID-19 CEO Interviews Airbus, Boeing and L3Harris U.S. Army’s FVL Plan A Heavy Lift for Industry Pandemic Tests Aviation Week Smallsat Industry Workforce Initiative Supported by: The Wings Club Digital Edition Copyright Notice The content contained in this digital edition (“Digital Material”), as well as its selection and arrangement, is owned by Informa. and its affiliated companies, licensors, and suppliers, and is protected by their respective copyright, trademark and other proprietary rights. Upon payment of the subscription price, if applicable, you are hereby authorized to view, download, copy, and print Digital Material solely for your own personal, non-commercial use, provided that by doing any of the foregoing, you acknowledge that (i) you do not and will not acquire any ownership rights of any kind in the Digital Material or any portion thereof, (ii) you must preserve all copyright and other proprietary notices included in any downloaded Digital Material, and (iii) you must comply in all respects with the use restrictions set forth below and in the Informa Privacy Policy and the Informa Terms of Use (the “Use Restrictions”), each of which is hereby incorporated by reference. Any use not in accordance with, and any failure to comply fully with, the Use Restrictions is expressly prohibited by law, and may result in severe civil and criminal penalties. Violators will be prosecuted to the maximum possible extent. You may not modify, publish, license, transmit (including by way of email, facsimile or other electronic means), transfer, sell, reproduce (including by copying or posting on any network computer), create derivative works from, display, store, or in any way exploit, broadcast, disseminate or distribute, in any format or media of any kind, any of the Digital Material, in whole or in part, without the express prior written consent of Informa. To request content for commercial use or Informa’s approval of any other restricted activity described above, please contact the Reprints Department at (877) 652-5295. Without in any way limiting the foregoing, you may not use spiders, robots, data mining techniques or other automated techniques to catalog, download or otherwise reproduce, store or distribute any Digital Material. NEITHER Informa NOR ANY THIRD PARTY CONTENT PROVIDER OR THEIR AGENTS SHALL BE LIABLE FOR ANY ACT, DIRECT OR INDIRECT, INCIDENTAL, SPECIAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES ARISING OUT OF THE USE OF OR ACCESS TO ANY DIGITAL MATERIAL, AND/OR ANY INFORMATION CONTAINED THEREIN. Stay Informed. Stay Connected. Stay Engaged. Access authoritative market insights and analysis along with company, program, fleet and contact databases covering the global aviation, aerospace and defense communities with an Aviation Week Intelligence Network (AWIN) Membership. Become a member today. Visit aviationweek.com/AWINinfo to schedule your demo. Or call Anne McMahon at +1 646 291 6353 or Thom Clayton +44 (0) 20 7017 6106 Read Aviation Week Anytime, Anywhere Now 3 Ways to Read Online AVIATIONWEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY 2020 Winner July 27-August 16, 2020 . Volume 182 . Number 15 DEPARTMENTS FLIGHT PATHS 6 | Feedback 6 4 | Marketplace FORWARD 7 | Who’s Where 65 | Contact Us 8-9 | First Take 65 | Aerospace 26 | Supply Chain 10 | Up Front Calendar With a $475 billion loss in 11 | Going Concerns commercial aviation manufacturing, 12 | Inside Business the A&D industrial base could Aviation su er aftershocks for years By Article: 32 | AviationWeek.com/awst Boeing 2 3| Could Rolls-Royce and Pratt join Two years must seem an eternity By Issue: forces again? AviationWeek.com/awst_current for the aircraft maker as it begins a Download and Read O ine: SUSTAINABILITY slow recovery from the unparalleled AviationWeek.com/download 2 4| Boeing teams with Etihad Airways setbacks it has faced since 2018 for 2020 ecoDemonstrator DEFENSE 4 1 | Airbus, Embraer and Mitsubishi SPACE 14 | U.S. Army upgrades its vision for Airframers are striving to balance Future Vertical Lift programs 44 | ESA proceeds with large-scale the maximum the market will accept Earth-observation program and the minimum suppliers and 16 | Is there another contender for employees will endure 60 | The pandemic tests the small drone dominance? satellite industry’s resilience 52 | F-35 4 8| U.S. Air Force may make a big 6 2| Booster failure causes Rocket Lab Leaps in computing power, sensors acquisition change for next fi ghter Electron to falter on its 13th fl ight and weapons will benefi t the F-35 in 50 UK Tempest plans trigger a new the coming years—if Lockheed can | MISSILE DEFENSE wave of industrial agreements keep modernization on track 5 8| Arrow 4 development progresses 51 | Faster pace is needed for as Iranian missile threat evolves Eurofi ghter enhancements ASK THE EDITORS INTERVIEWS 5 7| Defense ministry wants Japan’s 63 | How will aircraft fuel tanks be 29 | Boeing’s David Calhoun next fi ghter fl ying in 2028 adapted to switch to hydrogen power? 3 8| Airbus’ Guillaume Faury COMMERCIAL AVIATION VIEWPOINT 18 | Boeing 737 MAX training updates 66 | A two-phase plan for aviation’s 46 | L3Harris’ Bill Brown and spur memory-item discussion recovery from the pandemic crisis Chris Kubasik 2 0| Regional turboprops seen as ON THE COVER spearheading air tra c recovery Aviation Week’s Flight Paths Forward series continues with deep dives into the futures of Boeing, Airbus, Embraer, Mitsubishi, the aerospace supply chain and, in defense, the F-35 program. The articles 3 7 | As partners wrangle, CR929 and accompanying CEO interviews run throughout this issue, beginning on page 26. Aircraft photo by development is extended Adrian Dennis/AFP/Getty Images; background photo by Patrick Cooper/Getty Images. PROPULSION Aviation Week publishes a digital edition every week. Read it at AviationWeek.com/AWST 21 Test progress keeps UltraFan | DIGITAL EXTRAS Access exclusive online features from demo on track to run in 2021 articles accompanied by this icon. BEHIND THE SCENES Marooned at home and deprived of air shows—including July’s canceled Farnborough and EAA AirVenture Oshkosh events—John Morris, the longtime editor of Aviation Week’s ShowNews, had extra time to complete a special project he had been working on for 15 years. In July, Morris took to the skies for the fi rst time in his homebuilt biplane at Goodspeed Airport (42B) on the banks of the Connecticut River. The Staaken Flitzer Z-21, a 1924-technology wood-and-fabric biplane, was constructed using 33 pages of plans and a pile of wood and is powered by a German 80-hp AeroVee VW engine. “It was an immense thrill to fl y the Flitzer after all those years of building it,” proclaimed “Baron” Morris, who closed out the month as the recipient of the Aerospace MAUREEN SPUHLER PHOTOS Media Awards Lifetime Achievement honor (page 8). AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 3 Editor-In-Chief Joseph C. Anselmo [email protected] Executive Editors Jen DiMascio (Defense and Space) [email protected] Jens Flottau (Commercial Aviation) [email protected] Graham Warwick (Technology) [email protected] Editors Lindsay Bjerregaard, Sean Broderick, Michael Bruno, Bill Carey, Thierry Dubois, William Garvey, Ben Goldstein, Lee Hudson, Irene Klotz, Helen Massy- Beresford, Jefferson Morris, Guy Norris, Tony Osborne, Bradley Perrett, James Pozzi, Adrian Schofield, Lee Ann Shay, Steve Trimble Chief Aircraft Evaluation Editor Fred George Director, Editorial and Online Production Michael O. Lavitt Associate Managing Editor Andrea Hollowell Art Director Lisa Caputo Artists Thomas De Pierro, Rosa Pineda, Colin Throm Copy Editors Jack Freifelder, Arturo Mora, Natalia Pelayo, Andy Savoie Production Editors Audra Avizienis, Theresa Petruso Contributing Photographer Joseph Pries Director, Digital Content Strategy Rupa Haria Content Marketing Manager Rija Tariq Data & Analytics Director, Forecasts and Aerospace Insights Brian Kough Senior Manager, Data Operations/Production Terra Deskins Manager, Military Data Operations Michael Tint Editorial Offices 2121 K Street, NW, Suite 210, Washington, D.C. 20037 Phone: +1 (202) 517-1100 605 Third Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10158 GoGo beyondbeyond thethe newsnews ofof thethe Phone: +1 (212) 204-4200 dayday withwith AviationAviation WeekWeek Bureau Chiefs Auckland IntelligenceIntelligence Network’sNetwork’s Adrian [email protected] Beijing Market Briefi ngs. Bradley Perrett [email protected] Cape Canaveral These sector-specifi c intelligence Irene Klotz [email protected] Chicago briefi ngs empower busy Lee Ann Shay [email protected] executives to stay-ahead of the Frankfurt Jens Flottau [email protected] market, identify opportunities and Houston drive revenue. Mark Carreau [email protected] London Tony Osborne [email protected] Los Angeles LEARN MORE: Guy Norris [email protected] Lyon aviationweek.com/marketbriefi ngs Thierry Dubois [email protected] Moscow Maxim Pyadushkin [email protected] Paris Helen Massy-Beresford [email protected] Washington Jen DiMascio [email protected] Wichita Molly McMillin [email protected] President, Aviation Week Network Gregory Hamilton Managing Director, Intelligence & Data Services Anne McMahon 4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DISCOVER ANALYZE Editor-In-Chief