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Or call Anne McMahon at +1 646 291 6353 or Thom Clayton +44 (0) 20 7017 6106 Read Aviation Week Anytime, Anywhere Now 3 Ways to Read Online AVIATIONWEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY 2020 Winner July 27-August 16, 2020 . Volume 182 . Number 15 DEPARTMENTS FLIGHT PATHS 6 | Feedback 6 4 | Marketplace FORWARD 7 | Who’s Where 65 | Contact Us 8-9 | First Take 65 | Aerospace 26 | Supply Chain 10 | Up Front Calendar With a $475 billion loss in 11 | Going Concerns commercial aviation manufacturing, 12 | Inside Business the A&D industrial base could Aviation su er aftershocks for years By Article: 32 | AviationWeek.com/awst Boeing 2 3| Could Rolls-Royce and Pratt join Two years must seem an eternity By Issue: forces again? AviationWeek.com/awst_current for the aircraft maker as it begins a Download and Read O ine: SUSTAINABILITY slow recovery from the unparalleled AviationWeek.com/download 2 4| Boeing teams with Etihad Airways setbacks it has faced since 2018 for 2020 ecoDemonstrator DEFENSE 4 1 | Airbus, Embraer and Mitsubishi SPACE 14 | U.S. Army upgrades its vision for Airframers are striving to balance Future Vertical Lift programs 44 | ESA proceeds with large-scale the maximum the market will accept Earth-observation program and the minimum suppliers and 16 | Is there another contender for employees will endure 60 | The pandemic tests the small drone dominance? satellite industry’s resilience 52 | F-35 4 8| U.S. Air Force may make a big 6 2| Booster failure causes Rocket Lab Leaps in computing power, sensors acquisition change for next fi ghter Electron to falter on its 13th fl ight and weapons will benefi t the F-35 in 50 UK Tempest plans trigger a new the coming years—if Lockheed can | MISSILE DEFENSE wave of industrial agreements keep modernization on track 5 8| Arrow 4 development progresses 51 | Faster pace is needed for as Iranian missile threat evolves Eurofi ghter enhancements ASK THE EDITORS INTERVIEWS 5 7| Defense ministry wants Japan’s 63 | How will aircraft fuel tanks be 29 | Boeing’s David Calhoun next fi ghter fl ying in 2028 adapted to switch to hydrogen power? 3 8| Airbus’ Guillaume Faury COMMERCIAL AVIATION VIEWPOINT 18 | Boeing 737 MAX training updates 66 | A two-phase plan for aviation’s 46 | L3Harris’ Bill Brown and spur memory-item discussion recovery from the pandemic crisis Chris Kubasik 2 0| Regional turboprops seen as ON THE COVER spearheading air tra c recovery Aviation Week’s Flight Paths Forward series continues with deep dives into the futures of Boeing, Airbus, Embraer, Mitsubishi, the aerospace supply chain and, in defense, the F-35 program. The articles 3 7 | As partners wrangle, CR929 and accompanying CEO interviews run throughout this issue, beginning on page 26. Aircraft photo by development is extended Adrian Dennis/AFP/Getty Images; background photo by Patrick Cooper/Getty Images. PROPULSION Aviation Week publishes a digital edition every week. Read it at AviationWeek.com/AWST 21 Test progress keeps UltraFan | DIGITAL EXTRAS Access exclusive online features from demo on track to run in 2021 articles accompanied by this icon.

BEHIND THE SCENES Marooned at home and deprived of air shows—including July’s canceled Farnborough and EAA AirVenture Oshkosh events—John Morris, the longtime editor of Aviation Week’s ShowNews, had extra time to complete a special project he had been working on for 15 years. In July, Morris took to the skies for the ﬁ rst time in his homebuilt biplane at Goodspeed Airport (42B) on the banks of the Connecticut River. The Staaken Flitzer Z-21, a 1924-technology wood-and-fabric biplane, was constructed using 33 pages of plans and a pile of wood and is powered by a German 80-hp AeroVee VW engine. “It was an immense thrill to ﬂ y the Flitzer after all those years of building it,” proclaimed “Baron” Morris, who closed out the month as the recipient of the Aerospace MAUREEN SPUHLER PHOTOS Media Awards Lifetime Achievement honor (page 8).

AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 3 Editor-In-Chief Joseph C. Anselmo [email protected] Executive Editors Jen DiMascio (Defense and Space) [email protected] Jens Flottau (Commercial Aviation) [email protected] Graham Warwick (Technology) [email protected] Editors Lindsay Bjerregaard, Sean Broderick, Michael Bruno, Bill Carey, Thierry Dubois, William Garvey, Ben Goldstein, Lee Hudson, Irene Klotz, Helen Massy- Beresford, Jefferson Morris, Guy Norris, Tony Osborne, Bradley Perrett, James Pozzi, Adrian Schofield, Lee Ann Shay, Steve Trimble Chief Aircraft Evaluation Editor Fred George Director, Editorial and Online Production Michael O. Lavitt Associate Managing Editor Andrea Hollowell Art Director Lisa Caputo Artists Thomas De Pierro, Rosa Pineda, Colin Throm Copy Editors Jack Freifelder, Arturo Mora, Natalia Pelayo, Andy Savoie Production Editors Audra Avizienis, Theresa Petruso Contributing Photographer Joseph Pries Director, Digital Content Strategy Rupa Haria Content Marketing Manager Rija Tariq Data & Analytics Director, Forecasts and Aerospace Insights Brian Kough Senior Manager, Data Operations/Production Terra Deskins Manager, Military Data Operations Michael Tint Editorial Offices 2121 K Street, NW, Suite 210, Washington, D.C. 20037 Phone: +1 (202) 517-1100 605 Third Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10158 GoGo beyondbeyond thethe newsnews ofof thethe Phone: +1 (212) 204-4200 dayday withwith AviationAviation WWeekeek Bureau Chiefs Auckland IntelligenceIntelligence Network’sNetwork’s Adrian [email protected] Beijing Market Brieﬁ ngs. Bradley Perrett [email protected] Cape Canaveral These sector-specifi c intelligence Irene Klotz [email protected] Chicago briefi ngs empower busy Lee Ann Shay [email protected] executives to stay-ahead of the Frankfurt Jens Flottau [email protected] market, identify opportunities and Houston drive revenue. Mark Carreau [email protected] London Tony Osborne [email protected] Los Angeles LEARN MORE: Guy Norris [email protected] Lyon aviationweek.com/marketbrieﬁ ngs Thierry Dubois [email protected] Moscow Maxim Pyadushkin [email protected] Paris Helen Massy-Beresford [email protected] Washington Jen DiMascio [email protected] Wichita Molly McMillin [email protected]

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4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DISCOVER ANALYZE Editor-In-Chief PLAN Joseph C. Anselmo [email protected] Executive Editors FORECAST Jen DiMascio (Defense and Space) [email protected] Jens Flottau (Commercial Aviation) [email protected] Graham Warwick (Technology) [email protected] Editors Lindsay Bjerregaard, Sean Broderick, Michael Bruno, Bill Carey, Thierry Dubois, William Garvey, Ben Goldstein, Lee Hudson, Irene Klotz, Helen Massy- 2021 Fleet & MRO Forecasts Beresford, Jefferson Morris, Guy Norris, Tony Osborne, Bradley Perrett, James Pozzi, Adrian Schofield, Coming Soon Lee Ann Shay, Steve Trimble Chief Aircraft Evaluation Editor Fred George Director, Editorial and Online Production Michael O. Lavitt Associate Managing Editor Andrea Hollowell Art Director Lisa Caputo Artists Thomas De Pierro, Rosa Pineda, Colin Throm Copy Editors Jack Freifelder, Arturo Mora, Natalia Pelayo, Andy Savoie Production Editors Audra Avizienis, Theresa Petruso Contributing Photographer Joseph Pries Director, Digital Content Strategy Rupa Haria Content Marketing Manager Rija Tariq Data & Analytics Director, Forecasts and Aerospace Insights Brian Kough Senior Manager, Data Operations/Production Predictive Intelligence Terra Deskins Manager, Military Data Operations Michael Tint Editorial Offices 2121 K Street, NW, Suite 210, Washington, D.C. 20037 to Drive Results Phone: +1 (202) 517-1100 605 Third Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10158 GoGo beyondbeyond thethe newsnews ofof thethe Phone: +1 (212) 204-4200 dayday withwith AviationAviation WWeekeek Bureau Chiefs Auckland IntelligenceIntelligence Network’sNetwork’s Adrian [email protected] Beijing With Aviation Week Network’s Fleet & MRO Forecast, gain a Market Brieﬁ ngs. Bradley Perrett [email protected] Cape Canaveral 10-year outlook to minimize risk and maximize revenue. These sector-specifi c intelligence Irene Klotz [email protected] Chicago briefi ngs empower busy Lee Ann Shay [email protected] • Fleets, trends, and projections executives to stay-ahead of the Frankfurt Jens Flottau [email protected] • Predictive view of market share market, identify opportunities and Houston drive revenue. Mark Carreau [email protected] • MRO future demand London Tony Osborne [email protected] Los Angeles LEARN MORE: Guy Norris [email protected] Lyon Take your business to the aviationweek.com/marketbrieﬁ ngs Thierry Dubois [email protected] Moscow next level. Maxim Pyadushkin [email protected] Paris Helen Massy-Beresford [email protected] Washington For more information, visit Jen DiMascio [email protected] aviationweek.com/forecasts Wichita Molly McMillin [email protected] or call Anne McMahon at +1 646 291 6353 President, Aviation Week Network Available for: or Thom Clayton +44 (0) 20 7017 6106 Gregory Hamilton Managing Director, Intelligence & Data Services COMMERCIAL Anne McMahon MILITARY BUSINESS HELICOPTER

4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST FEEDBACK

THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY

H2FLY flop over to recommending masks, In the early 1970s, faced with the contact tracing and social distancing ending of the Apollo program, we at to lead us out of this mess. Rocketdyne (now Aerojet-Rocket- dyne) considered other markets for A.T. Jensen, Auburn, Washington our technology, such as application of hydrogen turbines as used on the ‘NOW WE HAVE TO THINK’ J-2 rocket engine. In response to “The Next Bomber?” (June 15-28, p. 12) oil embargoes and eventual oil-field examined arsenal plane tradeoffs, sug- depletion, we proposed moving to what gesting C-130s or C-17s as candidates. we called “The Hydrogen Economy.” from Russia (already a security risk) But these aircraft would be highly We faced most of the problems of or go the coal-gasification route, which tasked, especially in wartime. “Mega- infrastructure, storage, safe handling, will produce even more CO/CO2 as fortress” (June 29-July 12, p. 6) touted cost, supply and wide-scale distri- the carbon-to-hydrogen ratio is much the venerable B-52 as a de facto candi- bution noted in your articles “Into higher in coal. Bituminous coals have date for the mission. However, a better the Hydrogen Future” and “Europe a carbon-to-hydrogen ratio between choice would be the surplus Boeing Focuses on Aircraft Powered by 14 and 17, and most anthracites have 747-400 airliner fleet currently being Hydro gen” (June 29-July 12, pp. 16 and a ratio between 24 and 29, whereas retired from passenger service. 19, respectively). methane is 0.25. The 747-400s could be easily modi- We received funding from the Granted that the goal is to have solar fied to carry very heavy loads of con- Department of Transportation to or other renewable (or nuclear) ener- ventional cruise missiles, hypersonic study hydrogen-powered trains, ships, gies produce hydrogen from water via and ballistic missiles as well as kinetic buses and trucks, all of which had rel- electrolysis, but near-term sources of weapons for self-protection. Airborne atively centralized fueling and limited renewable energy are focused on re- lasers might also be installed in the fu- exposure to the general public. With moving coal and oil from the electricity ture. These aircraft, with their standoff oil supplies increasing and exhaust production system. The ability to use capabilities, could address major prob- pollution somewhat alleviated by better them for hydrogen production at a scale lems posed by long-range air defense mileage and catalytic converters, the and cost factor to provide a competitive missiles and increasingly anti-stealth drivers for change became less urgent fuel is probably well off in the future. capabilities that threaten current and and the project was abandoned. future manned penetrating platforms, At the time, the advantage of having Raymond F. Maddalone, Fishers, including the very expensive B-21. no carbon dioxide emissions was not Indiana Arsenal aircraft would need to be recognized widely, even though one of modified to be air-refuelable and might our selling points was that you could FOR FLIP-FLOPPING also carry equipment to refuel escort- safely drink the exhaust product In “Boeing’s Bank Is Back” (June 29- ing fighters. Off-the-shelf equipment (water) once cooled. With advances July 12, p. 13), Michael Bruno praises like the E-7 Wedgetail AEW&C radars in technology like more efficient fuel President Donald Trump’s flip-flop- and weapons bays similar to those on cells and a more urgent need, perhaps ping and states that “Trump is right P-8 ASW 737s could be installed. after 50 years the future of the hydro- on the money.” Such aircraft should be ideal for the gen economy has arrived. Bruno refers to likely objections Pentagon’s “Pacific Pivot,” including by “bank haters” and “antibank needed top cover for the Navy’s carrier Stephen A. Evans, Foothill Ranch, academics” but argues that the U.S. battle groups. Because of their long California Export-Import Bank’s new insurance range/endurance, they would have more coverage that would support jobs at persistence than F-18s, F-35s or F-22s. The articles on hydrogen-powered Boeing, General Electric and their Used 747s have been readily ad- aircraft were interesting for showing suppliers is “the right thing to do.” opted for other missions (e.g., water the scope of the research projects. I wonder what Bruno thinks of the bombers, satellite launchers, etc.), The question of the ultimate benefit Glass-Steagall Act, 2017 tax cuts or because they are inexpensive, capable derived from that fuel is its eventual Black Lives Matter. (I have faint hope and reliable. These platforms would source. Right now, 95% of hydrogen that the Black Lives Matter protests offer a lot of “bang for the buck.” produced in the U.S. is from steam- might do something about racial and Pentagon and congressional planners reforming of natural gas. That is an income inequality in our country.) should remember Winston Churchill’s endothermic process, so the net energy Thank you for praising Trump’s adage: “Gentlemen, we have run out derived is not 1:1 from the natural gas flip-flopping, which in turn might of money; now we have to think.” input. Beyond that, both carbon mon- encourage him to flip-flop on the oxide and carbon dioxide (to a much COVID-19 pandemic. He might actually Alan E. Diehl, Albuquerque, New Mexico lesser extent) are produced and have to be captured. In the U.S., we are blessed with an Address letters to the Editor-in-Chief, Aviation Week & Space Technology, abundance of natural gas (methane) 2121 K Street, NW, Suite 210, Washington, DC, 20037 or send via email to: and oil; countries like Germany either [email protected] Letters may be edited for length and clarity; have to use the natural gas imported a verifiable address and daytime telephone number are required.

6 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST FEEDBACK WHO’S WHERE

THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY

H2FLY flop over to recommending masks, In the early 1970s, faced with the contact tracing and social distancing Daniele Misani has been promoted to as vice president of business development and strat- ending of the Apollo program, we at to lead us out of this mess. CEO of TXT, where he has held senior egy. Edwards was vice president of operations at Rocketdyne (now Aerojet-Rocket- management positions, principally in the MAG Aerospace, and Mamajek was executive direc- dyne) considered other markets for A.T. Jensen, Auburn, Washington Aerospace and Aviation division. He suc- tor of avionics systems at Esterline our technology, such as application ceeds Enrico Magni, who will stay on as Technologies Corp. of hydrogen turbines as used on the ‘NOW WE HAVE TO THINK’ board chairman. TXT produces special- Karen Feaster has been appointed J-2 rocket engine. In response to “The Next Bomber?” (June 15-28, p. 12) ized software for aerospace and defense director of Daytona Beach International oil embargoes and eventual oil-field examined arsenal plane tradeoffs, sug- and other critical industries. Airport. Feaster was deputy airport direc- depletion, we proposed moving to what gesting C-130s or C-17s as candidates. Virgin Galactic has hired Michael Colglazier as CEO of tor for the past five years of her 28-year we called “The Hydrogen Economy.” from Russia (already a security risk) But these aircraft would be highly commercial service. Colglazier had worked at Walt Disney Daytona tenure, which began as a volun- We faced most of the problems of or go the coal-gasification route, which tasked, especially in wartime. “Mega- Co. He succeeds George Whitesides, who has been pro- teer internship. infrastructure, storage, safe handling, will produce even more CO/CO2 as fortress” (June 29-July 12, p. 6) touted moted to chief space officer, overseeing orbital spaceflight Vertical Aerospace has appointed Eric Samson as head of cost, supply and wide-scale distri- the carbon-to-hydrogen ratio is much the venerable B-52 as a de facto candi- programs. engineering of the electric flight organization. He was vice bution noted in your articles “Into higher in coal. Bituminous coals have date for the mission. However, a better Air BP has promoted Martin Thomsen to CEO. He suc- president of engineering and head of design at Jet Aviation. the Hydrogen Future” and “Europe a carbon-to-hydrogen ratio between choice would be the surplus Boeing ceeds Jon Platt, who will retire. Martin Caerdav has hired Richard Pitts-Robinson as business Focuses on Aircraft Powered by 14 and 17, and most anthracites have 747-400 airliner fleet currently being has held several positions with BP includ- development manager and Gary Munro as commercial Hydro gen” (June 29-July 12, pp. 16 and a ratio between 24 and 29, whereas retired from passenger service. ing fuels general manager. executive. Pitts-Robinson was head of commercial sales 19, respectively). methane is 0.25. The 747-400s could be easily modi- Carl Novello has been hired as Nxtcomm at Flybe Aviation Services; Munro was a sales executive We received funding from the Granted that the goal is to have solar fied to carry very heavy loads of con- chief technology officer, overseeing en- at Porsche. c Depart ment of Transportation to or other renewable (or nuclear) ener- ventional cruise missiles, hypersonic gineering, design and development of study hydrogen-powered trains, ships, gies produce hydrogen from water via and ballistic missiles as well as kinetic electronically steered antennas. He was To submit information for the Who’s Where column, send Word or buses and trucks, all of which had rel- electrolysis, but near-term sources of weapons for self-protection. Airborne vice president at Kymeta and before that attached text files (no PDFs) and photos to: whoswhere@aviationweek. atively centralized fueling and limited renewable energy are focused on re- lasers might also be installed in the fu- was with Intellian Technologies, Panasonic, Harris Corp. com For additional information on companies and individuals exposure to the general public. With moving coal and oil from the electricity ture. These aircraft, with their standoff and Comsat. listed in this column, please refer to the Aviation Week Intelligence oil supplies increasing and exhaust production system. The ability to use capabilities, could address major prob- New unmanned air mobility company AcceleratUM has Network at AviationWeek.com/awin For information on ordering, pollution somewhat alleviated by better them for hydrogen production at a scale lems posed by long-range air defense named Brett Feddersen president. He was FAA leader of na- telephone U.S.: +1 (866) 857-0148 or +1 (515) 237-3682 outside the U.S. mileage and catalytic converters, the and cost factor to provide a competitive missiles and increasingly anti-stealth tional security, incident response and unmanned aircraft sys- drivers for change became less urgent fuel is probably well off in the future. capabilities that threaten current and tem (UAS) security systems. AcceleratUM was co- founded and the project was abandoned. future manned penetrating platforms, by Lessing Stern, chairman; Michael Huerta, former FAA At the time, the advantage of having Raymond F. Maddalone, Fishers, including the very expensive B-21. administrator; Jim Williams, former FAA director of UAS no carbon dioxide emissions was not Indiana Arsenal aircraft would need to be integration; and Ben Rifkin, CEO of Ten Eighty Capital. recognized widely, even though one of modified to be air-refuelable and might The Aerospace Corp. has hired David Radzanowski as Ensuring our selling points was that you could FOR FLIP-FLOPPING also carry equipment to refuel escort- chief financial officer. He succeeds Ellen Beatty, who has safety and performance safely drink the exhaust product ing fighters. Off-the-shelf equipment left. He was Equator Corp. leader of strategic business In “Boeing’s Bank Is Back” (June 29- for today and tomorrow (water) once cooled. With advances July 12, p. 13), Michael Bruno praises like the E-7 Wedgetail AEW&C radars functions for Australia’s future subma- in technology like more efficient fuel President Donald Trump’s flip-flop- and weapons bays similar to those on rine program and before that NASA cells and a more urgent need, perhaps ping and states that “Trump is right P-8 ASW 737s could be installed. chief financial officer and chief of staff for after 50 years the future of the hydro- on the money.” Such aircraft should be ideal for the then-Administrator Charles Bolden. gen economy has arrived. Bruno refers to likely objections Pentagon’s “Pacific Pivot,” including Becky Yoder has joined Astroscale U.S. by “bank haters” and “antibank needed top cover for the Navy’s carrier as senior vice president of finance and Stephen A. Evans, Foothill Ranch, academics” but argues that the U.S. battle groups. Because of their long business operations. Yoder was director California Export-Import Bank’s new insurance range/endurance, they would have more of operations for the Orbital Technologies coverage that would support jobs at persistence than F-18s, F-35s or F-22s. group at General Atomics Electromagnetic Systems. The articles on hydrogen-powered Boeing, General Electric and their Used 747s have been readily ad- Charles Clancy has been promoted to senior vice pres- aircraft were interesting for showing suppliers is “the right thing to do.” opted for other missions (e.g., water ident, chief futurist and general manager of MITRE Labs, the scope of the research projects. I wonder what Bruno thinks of the bombers, satellite launchers, etc.), established by MITRE Corp. in restructuring its research The question of the ultimate benefit Glass-Steagall Act, 2017 tax cuts or because they are inexpensive, capable and development capabilities. Clancy was MITRE Corp. With light weight, small derived from that fuel is its eventual Black Lives Matter. (I have faint hope and reliable. These platforms would intelligence programs vice president. In addition, John volume, outstanding source. Right now, 95% of hydro gen that the Black Lives Matter protests offer a lot of “bang for the buck.” Wilson has been promoted to MITRE Labs vice president environmental robustness produced in the U.S. is from steam- might do something about racial and Pentagon and congressional planners and chief information and security officer from MITRE and unmatched performance reforming of natural gas. That is an income inequality in our country.) should remember Winston Churchill’s Corp. vice president of technical centers, and Christina LITEF’s certified Inertial endothermic process, so the net energy Thank you for praising Trump’s adage: “Gentlemen, we have run out Orfanos has been promoted to MITRE Labs vice president Systems deliver value to the derived is not 1:1 from the natural gas flip-flopping, which in turn might of money; now we have to think.” of talent experience and total rewards from MITRE Corp. operators of all types of civil input. Beyond that, both carbon mon- encourage him to flip-flop on the talent strategy and integration director. and military aircraft. oxide and carbon dioxide (to a much COVID-19 pandemic. He might actually Alan E. Diehl, Albuquerque, New Mexico LinQuest Corp., a provider of space systems technol- lesser extent) are produced and have ogy for the U.S. defense and intelligence communities, Inertial Systems to be captured. has hired Ronald Gembarosky as senior vice president made by In the U.S., we are blessed with an Address letters to the Editor-in-Chief, Aviation Week & Space Technology, and chief security officer. He was chief security officer at For more information on our products, please contact [email protected] abundance of natural gas (methane) 2121 K Street, NW, Suite 210, Washington, DC, 20037 or send via email to: Science Applications International. Northrop Grumman LITEF GmbH, Loerracher Strasse 18, 79115 Freiburg, Germany and oil; countries like Germany either [email protected] Letters may be edited for length and clarity; Triman Industries, an AE Industrial Partners subsidiary, have to use the natural gas imported a verifiable address and daytime telephone number are required. has hired Dan Edwards as president and Eugene Mamajek

6 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 7 FIRST

TAKE delivered to the U.S. Air Force under an cording to a new Canaccord Genuity For the latest, go to $862 million contract (page 52). forecast (page 32). AVIATIONWEEK.COM Rolls-Royce will supply the engines JOEPRIESAVIATION.NET and infrared suppression system for the Bell V-280 tiltrotor proposal to the U.S. Army for the Future Long-Range Assault Aircraft program. LEONARDO Germany plans to purchase three Bombardier Global 6000 business jets for its signals-intelligence mission, after canceling efforts to purchase the Eurohawk derivative of the Northrop Grumman Global Hawk UAV. British Airways will retire its remaining COMMERCIAL AVIATION 31 Boeing 747s after operating the air- U.S. airline passenger traffic has pla- craft type for almost 50 years. DEFENSE teaued at 20-25% of 2019’s level, signal- A Leonardo prototype M346 Light ing that a new surge in U.S. COVID-19 American Airlines warned that it will Fighter Family of Aircraft, which is cases is choking off a recovery. Amer- have to furlough 25,000 workers—20% equipped with a mechanically scan- ican Airlines, International Airlines of its staff—unless U.S. government ning, multimode Grifo radar, made its Group, Lufthansa and United Airlines payroll support is extended beyond first flight on July 13. urged the EU and U.S. governments Sept. 30, following United Airlines, to introduce a common coronavirus which is projecting 36,000 layoffs. Europe’s new Multinational Multi-Role test program that would allow airlines Tanker Transport Unit will fly its first to accelerate the restoration of trans - SPACE aerial refueling training missions in Au- atlantic flights. The launch of the James Webb Space gust to support NATO combat aircraft. Telescope, a successor to the Hubble Boeing’s 737 MAX backlog could de- observatory, is being postponed at least Eight Lockheed Martin F-35As ordered cline another 10% due to soft demand seven months, largely due to pandemic- by Turkey will instead be modified and and the fragile health of airlines, ac- related workplace shutdowns.

20 YEARS AGO IN AVIATION WEEK Airbus and Boeing announced $30 billion worth of orders at the 2000 Farnborough Airshow, but the event was overshadowed by tragedy when an Air France supersonic Concorde burst into flames and crashed as it took off from Paris Charles de Gaulle International Airport on July 25, killing all 109 passengers and crew and four people on the ground. Pierre Sparaco, who led Aviation Week’s commercial aviation coverage in Europe, rushed back to his hotel in London to cover the accident and was not seen again at the show. He led Aviation Week’s initial five-page report on the accident, which was coauthored by Transport Editor Frances Fiorino and Senior Engineering Editor Michael A. Dornheim. The reporting was particularly painful for development, flight testing and service off, as well as the vulnerability of its design. Sparaco, a veteran Paris-based aviation jour- entry. French accident investigators ulti- Sparaco died in 2015. The last of his many nalist who had covered the program from its mately blamed the fire and crash on run- books was a biography of Andre Turcat, who very beginnings in the early 1960s through way debris struck by the aircraft as it took had piloted Concorde’s first flight. Subscribers can access every issue of Aviation Week back to 1916 at: archive.aviationweek.com

8 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST F-35 Deliveries: The Decade Ahead FIRST Actual Projected 2011- July 17- Country July 16 Dec. 31 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Totals TAKE delivered to the U.S. Air Force under an cording to a new Canaccord Genuity 2020 2020 For the latest, go to $862 million contract (page 52). forecast (page 32). Australia 26 7 15 15 9 72 AVIATIONWEEK.COM Belgium 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 34 JOEPRIESAVIATION.NET Rolls-Royce will supply the engines Denmark 4 6 7 4 3 3 27 and infrared suppression system for Greece 4 8 12 the Bell V-280 tiltrotor proposal to the U.S. Army for the Future Long-Range Israel 24 6 6 6 6 5 9 8 8 78 Assault Aircraft program. Italy 15 3 4 7 13 14 9 11 10 4 90 LEONARDO Japan 18 4 6 9 15 12 15 16 16 12 12 12 147 Germany plans to purchase three Netherlands 12 6 8 8 2 4 6 7 7 7 67 Bombardier Global 6000 business jets Norway 25 3 6 6 6 6 for its signals-intelligence mission, af- 52 ter canceling efforts to purchase the Poland 4 6 6 4 6 6 32 Eurohawk derivative of the Northrop Singapore 4 4 4 12 Grumman Global Hawk UAV. South Korea 24 4 12 10 10 60 British Airways will retire its remaining Turkey* 6 6 COMMERCIAL AVIATION 31 Boeing 747s after operating the air- UK 18 3 6 8 7 6 6 6 12 12 12 12 108 U.S. airline passenger traffic has pla- craft type for almost 50 years. DEFENSE teaued at 20-25% of 2019’s level, signal- U.S. 379 55 99 102 104 109 107 106 107 110 110 110 1,498 A Leonardo prototype M346 Light ing that a new surge in U.S. COVID-19 American Airlines warned that it will Totals 547 91 166 167 173 168 165 163 168 165 159 163 2,295 Fighter Family of Aircraft, which is cases is choking off a recovery. Amer- have to furlough 25,000 workers—20% * Six F-35s to be delivered to Turkey through 2019 were withheld as a result of Ankara’s acquisition of the S-400 and will instead be delivered to the U.S. Air Force. equipped with a mechanically scan- ican Airlines, International Airlines of its staff—unless U.S. government Source: Aviation Week Military Fleet Discovery Database. Prepared by Michael Tint ning, multimode Grifo radar, made its Group, Lufthansa and United Airlines payroll support is extended beyond first flight on July 13. urged the EU and U.S. governments Sept. 30, following United Airlines, Aviation Week’s Military Fleet Data team assessed the number of Lockheed Martin F-35s likely to be delivered, based on to introduce a common coronavirus which is projecting 36,000 layoffs. statements by nations that have declared they will buy the aircraft. It does not include ongoing competitions. For more Europe’s new Multinational Multi-Role test program that would allow airlines information about the F-35 program, see page 52. Tanker Transport Unit will fly its first to accelerate the restoration of trans - SPACE aerial refueling training missions in Au- atlantic flights. The launch of the James Webb Space To learn about our ﬂ eet data products and services, go to: AviationWeek.com/products/ﬂ eet-discovery-military gust to support NATO combat aircraft. Telescope, a successor to the Hubble Boeing’s 737 MAX backlog could de- observatory, is being postponed at least GENERAL AVIATION and medium jet activity nearing normal Eight Lockheed Martin F-35As ordered cline another 10% due to soft demand seven months, largely due to pandemic- Business aviation moved toward normal rates, according to Aviation Week’s In- by Turkey will instead be modified and and the fragile health of airlines, ac- related workplace shutdowns. in late June, with small jet and turboprop telligence and Data Services. But large utilization back to pre-COVID-19 levels cabin jet activity continues to lag. c

20 YEARS AGO IN AVIATION WEEK AE SPAE AEN AVIATION WEEK WINS Airbus and Boeing announced $30 billion AEROSPACE MEDIA AWARDS worth of orders at the 2000 Farnborough Airshow, but the event was overshadowed The United Arab Emirates’ rst inter- The Aviation Week Network has won five 2020 Aerospace Media Awards. by tragedy when an Air France supersonic planetary spacecraft began a seven- month journey to Mars on July 20 Senior Air Transport and Safety Concorde burst into flames and crashed following a successful launch aboard Editor Sean Broderick was named as it took off from Paris Charles de Gaulle a Mitsubishi Heavy Industries H-IIA Aerospace Reporter of the Year for his International Airport on July 25, killing all rocket from the Tanegashima Space coverage of the Boeing 737 MAX crisis 109 passengers and crew and four people on Center in Japan. in Aviation Week & Space Technology the ground. Pierre Sparaco, who led Aviation and Aviation Daily. France Bureau Week’s commercial aviation coverage in The British government has signed a Chief Thierry Dubois won Best Pro- pulsion Submission for an Aviation AR ANER SHOWNEWS Europe, rushed back to his hotel in London long-awaited contract with Airbus for the next-generation Skynet 6A com- Week & Space Technology article on to cover the accident and was not seen munications satellite, scheduled to how propeller manufacturers are again at the show. He led Aviation Week’s ini- launch in 2025. aiming for technology improvements. tial five-page report on the accident, which Victoria Moores, Air Transport was coauthored by Transport Editor Frances A Long March 5 rocket launched the World’s European bureau chief, won Fiorino and Senior Engineering Editor first all-Chinese mission to Mars Best MRO Submission for an article Michael A. Dornheim. on July 23, placing the 5-metric-ton on how to plan for the unpredictability of lease returns that was published in editor-in-chief of ShowNews since 1994, The reporting was particularly painful for development, flight testing and service off, as well as the vulnerability of its design. Tianwen 1 spacecraft into an Earth- Mars transfer orbit. Tianwen 1 is due Inside MRO. Freelance photographer was honored with a Lifetime Achieve- Sparaco, a veteran Paris-based aviation jour- entry. French accident investigators ulti- Sparaco died in 2015. The last of his many to arrive at Mars in seven months, Mark Wagner won Best Aviation ment Award for his 50 years as a journalist who had covered the program from its mately blamed the fire and crash on run- books was a biography of Andre Turcat, who with a lander carrying a rover sched- Image for a photo of the Chinese J-10 nalist. This year’s award winners were very beginnings in the early 1960s through way debris struck by the aircraft as it took had piloted Concorde’s first flight. uled to descend to the surface 2-3 ﬁ ghter team (right) that appeared in announced virtually in an online presen- months later. ShowNews. And John Morris, the tation from London on July 21. Subscribers can access every issue of Aviation Week back to 1916 at: archive.aviationweek.com

8 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 COMMENTARY UP FRONT KEVIN MICHAELS

WHAT A DIFFERENCE A YEAR MAKES. gins, which reduces their ability to invest in the fu- In March 2019, Boeing was on top of the ture. This does not mean that Boeing abandons its world, boasting an eight-year order back- pressure on suppliers to improve productivity, deliv- log and a market capitalization of $240 billion. Today, ery and quality; nor does it mean that it should not it is at a structural disadvantage versus Airbus, with seek to grow aftermarket royalties. its share price diminished as it grapples with the By ending PFS, Boeing could change its supplier worst crisis of the jetliner era. Some observers are payment terms from 90 days to 60 days to inject needed beginning to doubt that it can hold up its end of the working capital and improve supplier viability in the airliner production duopoly. COVID-19 crisis. It could also revise its draconian ter- CEO Dave Calhoun is just 21 months from his man- mination for convenience clauses and intellectual dated retirement age, and his honeymoon as a new property ownership demands. Nothing would do more leader is running out. Will he be a transitional leader, to restore supplier confidence than Boeing burying or take risks to reposition the company for long-term PFS. The timing is perfect. success? I believe he can be a transformational leader ➍ Jettison the unreal- by pursuing a bold five-part strategy. istic goal of $50 billion in services revenue. It is an arbitrary target, and there is not enough Rebooting Boeing maintenance, repair A five-part strategy for CEO Dave Calhoun and overhaul white space for the goal to be tenable, given Boeing’s ➊ Launch a moonshot. Boeing’s product positioning current services reve- issues are well-known and need to be addressed soon- nue of $18.4 billion. It er rather than later despite the COVID-19 crisis. The contributes to supplier company’s top priority is, of course, recertification mistrust and distracts of the 737 MAX. Shortly thereafter, it must launch a from the core mission

white-sheet program to address its competitiveness BOEING of developing, produc- issue versus the Airbus A321neo. This will boost the ing and supporting morale of Boeing stakeholders—employees, custom- great aircraft. ers, and suppliers—and signal that it wants to move Boeing should still pursue services growth, but in a past the 737 MAX disaster, regain industry leader- measured manner and in areas where it creates gen- ship and invest in promising new digital design and uine customer value—including parts distribution, production technologies. training, digital services, military sustainment and ➋ Recalibrate the vertical integration strategy. Boe- modifications. Otherwise, it is destined to make major ing went too far in outsourcing on the 787, and now it mistakes—including bad acquisitions or launching un- looks like it is taking on too much insourcing. Some profitable services—in the pursuit of a quixotic goal. vertical integration initiatives do make sense, includ- ➎ Continue to restructure the board of directors. Most ing interiors, composite wings and avionics, but sever- of the current board members approved decisions that al others are marginal. Can Boeing, for example, really led to Boeing’s decline and pursuit of financial engi- create lasting customer value in auxiliary power units neering in lieu of long-term competitiveness. The 737 through its joint venture with Safran? The timing of MAX crisis demonstrates that the board was heavy on this move is ironic given the fact that this could be the political influence and light on technical expertise. last generation of jetliners using APUs. It is on a path Boeing has begun to address some of these short- to convert variable costs into fixed costs, which does comings with the appointment of three new directors not bode well in a prolonged industry downturn. since 2019. It would do well to continue the house- Airbus acknowledged this reality by recently aban- cleaning to create a credible counterbalance to the doning its vertical integration initiative on nacelles CEO and the wisdom to guide it back to jetliner parity. for the A320neo and awarding the package to Collins This five-part strategy will likely receive blowback Aerospace. Funds used for misguided vertical inte- from Wall Street. But that is precisely the point. For gration moves would be better deployed pursuing the far too long, Boeing took its eye off the ball to chase next commercial moonshot or, on the military side, a share-price inflation. Dave Calhoun has a golden op- sixth-generation fighter. portunity to reboot and revitalize Boeing in his re- ➌ Kill the Partnering for Success (PFS) program, one maining 21 months and create a legacy as one of its of the company’s biggest mistakes of the last decade. most consequential leaders. c PFS is not only a silly name, it puts its suppliers— responsible for 65-70% of its cost structure—in the Contributing columnist Kevin Michaels is managing director of untenable position of earning inadequate profit mar- AeroDynamic Advisory in Ann Arbor, Michigan.

10 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMENTARY COMMENTARY UP FRONT GOING CONCERNS KEVIN MICHAELS MICHAEL BRUNO

WHAT A DIFFERENCE A YEAR MAKES. gins, which reduces their ability to invest in the fu- ANYONE LOOKING FOR A JOB IN “Likely the most discussed trend, evidenced by both In March 2019, Boeing was on top of the ture. This does not mean that Boeing abandons its the aerospace and defense sector should the quantity and deal value of mergers announced world, boasting an eight-year order back- pressure on suppliers to improve productivity, deliv- check out TheLayoff.com. While anony- in 2019, is the race for scale throughout the supply log and a market capitalization of $240 billion. Today, ery and quality; nor does it mean that it should not mous tipsters on the site can be crude, chain,” mergers and acquisitions advisor Mesirow Fi- it is at a structural disadvantage versus Airbus, with seek to grow aftermarket royalties. vitriolic and frequently motivated by agendas, the chat nancial said in March. “And 2019 more than doubled its share price diminished as it grapples with the By ending PFS, Boeing could change its supplier board as a whole provides incomparable insight into 2018’s announced deal value.” worst crisis of the jetliner era. Some observers are payment terms from 90 days to 60 days to inject needed a company’s workforce reputation, especially as many Each deal brings further workforce reductions. Man- beginning to doubt that it can hold up its end of the working capital and improve supplier viability in the aerospace and defense (A&D) companies cut employ- agers look to take out costs, starting with back-office airliner production duopoly. COVID-19 crisis. It could also revise its draconian ter- ees due to the downturn from COVID-19. functions and then deciding which business segments CEO Dave Calhoun is just 21 months from his man- mination for convenience clauses and intellectual Unfortunately, there is a lot of fodder to peruse these to cleave off as leaders focus on their core business port- dated retirement age, and his honeymoon as a new property ownership demands. Nothing would do more days. Tens of thousands of layoffs—not furloughs, folios. Deal-making is expected to pick up with a ven- leader is running out. Will he be a transitional leader, to restore supplier confidence than Boeing burying but permanent reduc- geance in the second half or take risks to reposition the company for long-term PFS. The timing is perfect. tions—have come since of this year as more dis- success? I believe he can be a transformational leader ➍ Jettison the unreal- spring. From GE Aviation Industry Downsizing tressed assets come onto by pursuing a bold five-part strategy. istic goal of $50 billion and TransDigm Group the market, according to in services revenue. It cutting 25% of their Yet again, but it can change its reputation several consultants. is an arbitrary target, workforces to Airbus and Meanwhile, industry and there is not enough Boeing letting go of 10% is likely to adopt digita- Rebooting Boeing maintenance, repair to Bombardier and Tri- lization aggressively af- A five-part strategy for CEO Dave Calhoun and overhaul white umph Group axing thou- ter COVID-19, meaning space for the goal to be sands, the manufacturing more robotics, automa- tenable, given Boeing’s side is fighting to save tion and artificial intelli- ➊ Launch a moonshot. Boeing’s product positioning current services reve- capital, and targeting gence. “The new normal issues are well-known and need to be addressed soon- nue of $18.4 billion. It head count is common. is going to be different, er rather than later despite the COVID-19 crisis. The contributes to supplier Separately, airlines and I think automation is company’s top priority is, of course, recertification mistrust and distracts may be in even worse going to be a big factor,” of the 737 MAX. Shortly thereafter, it must launch a from the core mission shape; their employees says Hawk Carlisle, CEO

white-sheet program to address its competitiveness BOEING of developing, produc- are dreading the end of and president of the Na- issue versus the Airbus A321neo. This will boost the ing and supporting September, when federal tional Defense Industrial morale of Boeing stakeholders—employees, custom- great aircraft. aid stipulations are set to GE AVIATION Association. ers, and suppliers—and signal that it wants to move Boeing should still pursue services growth, but in a expire. United Airlines Not every corner of past the 737 MAX disaster, regain industry leader- measured manner and in areas where it creates gen- in July started notifying 36,000 front-line employees A&D will see redundancies. Niches such as aircraft ship and invest in promising new digital design and uine customer value—including parts distribution, about potential involuntary cuts, setting the stage for a maintenance, data science, digital-design engineering production technologies. training, digital services, military sustainment and downsizing of as much as 45% of its workforce this fall. and classified work requiring security clearances still ➋ Recalibrate the vertical integration strategy. Boe- modifications. Otherwise, it is destined to make major It is easy to predict that more than 100,000 positions could struggle to fill openings. But as a whole, A&D ing went too far in outsourcing on the 787, and now it mistakes—including bad acquisitions or launching un- will disappear from the A&D industry over the next may be home to fewer workers for years. looks like it is taking on too much insourcing. Some profitable services—in the pursuit of a quixotic goal. two years. Whether it is to conserve cash in the face of With plenty of living memory of past downturns af- vertical integration initiatives do make sense, includ- ➎ Continue to restructure the board of directors. Most exigent liquidity concerns or because of marketplace ter the Cold War ended, 9/11 and 2013 federal budget ing interiors, composite wings and avionics, but sever- of the current board members approved decisions that changes in the wake of COVID-19, several realities are sequestration cuts when A&D companies went out of al others are marginal. Can Boeing, for example, really led to Boeing’s decline and pursuit of financial engi- driving workforce cuts. What makes their sting more business or let go droves of workers, the current wave create lasting customer value in auxiliary power units neering in lieu of long-term competitiveness. The 737 painful is that they come on the heels of pronounced will do no favors for the sector. Perhaps that is unavoid- through its joint venture with Safran? The timing of MAX crisis demonstrates that the board was heavy on efforts to hire more workers in the last half of the past able. But beyond treating laid-off workers fairly as they this move is ironic given the fact that this could be the political influence and light on technical expertise. decade when all sides of A&D envisioned growth. exit, A&D companies can do something else to salvage last generation of jetliners using APUs. It is on a path Boeing has begun to address some of these short- According to the Aerospace Industries Association, their reputations for future candidates. to convert variable costs into fixed costs, which does comings with the appointment of three new directors the A&D industry supported roughly 2.5 million jobs “For core functions, companies will need to launch not bode well in a prolonged industry downturn. since 2019. It would do well to continue the house- in 2018, the last full year of data. That included 881,000 targeted and intentional upskilling programs—not as Airbus acknowledged this reality by recently aban- cleaning to create a credible counterbalance to the direct jobs and another 1.6 million in the supply chain, one-time initiatives but as part of a sustained culture doning its vertical integration initiative on nacelles CEO and the wisdom to guide it back to jetliner parity. which often serves multiple industries. change that adopts new ways of learning to keep pace for the A320neo and awarding the package to Collins This five-part strategy will likely receive blowback But 2018 could serve as the high-water mark. Long with technological change,” argues PwC Global A&D Aerospace. Funds used for misguided vertical inte- from Wall Street. But that is precisely the point. For before the COVID-19 pandemic and even before the Leader Glenn Brady. “Now is also a prime opportunity gration moves would be better deployed pursuing the far too long, Boeing took its eye off the ball to chase Boeing 737 MAX was grounded and production halted to improve noncore employees’ digital fitness—for ex- next commercial moonshot or, on the military side, a share-price inflation. Dave Calhoun has a golden op- this year, industry was consolidating at a rapid pace. ample, upskilling in digital technologies that introduce sixth-generation fighter. portunity to reboot and revitalize Boeing in his re- In April, Raytheon and United Technologies Corp. data modeling, design thinking and automation.” ➌ Kill the Partnering for Success (PFS) program, one maining 21 months and create a legacy as one of its consummated their merger, following L3 Technologies A&D may not be able to combat its repeated history of the company’s biggest mistakes of the last decade. most consequential leaders. c and Harris Corp. a year ago. The supply chain has ex- of shedding workers, but it would do itself a lot of good PFS is not only a silly name, it puts its suppliers— perienced similar combinations, from large takeovers if it embraced retraining of those it keeps and enhanc- responsible for 65-70% of its cost structure—in the Contributing columnist Kevin Michaels is managing director of such as TransDigm Group buying Esterline Technolo- ing their skills. Just imagine this post on TheLayoff.com: untenable position of earning inadequate profit mar- AeroDynamic Advisory in Ann Arbor, Michigan. gies to countless private equity-funded rollups. “Yes, they let me go, but I’d go back.” c

10 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 11 COMMENTARY INSIDE BUSINESS AVIATION WILLIAM GARVEY

HE CLAIMS TO BE THE FIRST tip-mounted pusher props, all turned by three 375-shp Canadian iPhone owner and the first to (280-kW) Magni250 systems. He believes designing an put a Tesla 6 on Vancouver roads. “I really aircraft around electric power from the outset results like new, innovative technology,” says in a more efficient and better performing platform Greg McDougall (at left below). “I’m an early adopter.” than applying such a system to an airframe initially Meanwhile, Dan Wolf’s (at right below) concerns fitted with an internal-combustion engine. about emissions damaging his coastal habitat led Moreover, Wolf is no stranger to developing aircraft. him to install enough solar panels on his outfit’s roofs Knowing that Cape Air’s fleet of pampered Cessna to more than satisfy its electrical needs. And he has 402Cs was nearing retirement, and unable to entice signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to buy any U.S. manufacturer to build a replacement for them, wind-generated electricity for future consumption. the carrier worked with Italy’s eager Tecnam in the de- The two forward-leaners have shared histories, inter- sign, systems selection and outfitting of the P2012 Trav- ests and vision. Both are pilots with thousands of flight eller, which the FAA certified last year. Cape Air already hours logged. Each founded and leads a successful re- has 11 of the unpressurized, 9-10-passenger piston twins gional airline—McDougall’s Vancouver-based Harbour in service, expects 20 to be delivered this year and has Air Seaplanes and Wolf’s Cape Air in Massachusetts options on an additional 92. Wolf sees Alice and Trav- and beyond—and, nota- eller as complementary bly, they so believe avia- and thinks an electric tion’s future will cruise eFly Fellows version of the latter cleanly and profitably on could eventuate. kilowatts, they are com- A 15-min. change of course for aviation? On Dec. 10, 2019, Mc- mitting to electric flight. Dougall was first to put McDougall was in- the shared vision to trigued with the numer- flight when he ascend- ous projects underway ed from Harbour Air’s globally to bring electric Fraser River terminal propulsion to aviation. in a company de Havil- Although many efforts land DHC-2 Beaver fit- were in early develop- ted with a Magni500, ment, he became con- making good on his Hall vinced the technology’s of Fame prediction. “To- promise of dramatically day, we made history,” he lower maintenance and said, calling the flight of energy costs combined HARBOUR AIR CAPE AIR the commercial, six-pas- with zero emissions is what commercial aviation needs. senger “ePlane” an “incredible world-class milestone.” So sure was he that upon his induction into Canada’s That first flight lasted just 15 min. as a result of the Aviation Hall of Fame last year, he told the gala audi- low-density batteries used. However, McDougall believes ence the honor was premature since his company’s that thanks to the ongoing improvements in battery tech- singular achievement would be its adoption of electric nology, once his eOtters are operating in about two years, propulsion. He recalls the diners reacting with “disbe- they should have performance and payloads similar to lief, ridicule, all kinds of things.” today’s and enough duration to satisfy Harbour Air’s net- Undeterred, he became a vocal advocate of electri- work. The majority of the carrier’s flights average about fication, and his word traveled. Presently, he got a call 28 min. The battery will be recharged at each destina- from Roei Ganzarski, CEO of MagniX, a young company tion with 1 min. of charge equal to 1 min. of flight time. developing electric aircraft motors that recently estab- Harbour Air plans to obtain and own the supple- lished headquarters in Seattle. Days later, the two met mental type certificate for the installation. for coffee and before a refill had agreed to collaborate. As for Alice, its first flight was scrubbed this past McDougall envisioned refitting Harbour Air’s 22 January when a fire during ground-testing in Arizona workhorse de Havilland Canada DHC-3 Otter float- damaged the prototype beyond repair. A replacement is planes with electric power. Years earlier, he had pio- in the works. Unconcerned, Wolf stands by his MOU to neered replacing the de Havillands’ radials with Pratt & put the first 15 trimotors into service. He describes Alice Whitney PT-6s. Now, those turboprops would give way as “an amazing piece of technology,” which he expects to MagniX’s 750-hp (560-kW) Magni500 motors. to have in Cape Air livery in three or four years. Similarly, Wolf was evaluating which electric-avia- Meanwhile, early adopter McDougall says he is tion projects had the best chance of commercial suc- thrilled to be “pioneering something dramatically new cess. He finally settled upon Eviation, a MagniX sibling in aviation.” c developing “Alice”—an all-composite, nine-passenger aircraft that is propelled by three tail- and wing- William Garvey is Editor-in-Chief of Business & Commercial Aviation

12 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMENTARY INSIDE BUSINESS AVIATION WILLIAM GARVEY SAVE THE DATE HE CLAIMS TO BE THE FIRST tip-mounted pusher props, all turned by three 375-shp Canadian iPhone owner and the first to (280-kW) Magni250 systems. He believes designing an put a Tesla 6 on Vancouver roads. “I really aircraft around electric power from the outset results like new, innovative technology,” says in a more efficient and better performing platform Big Things Are Coming! Greg McDougall (at left below). “I’m an early adopter.” than applying such a system to an airframe initially Meanwhile, Dan Wolf’s (at right below) concerns fitted with an internal-combustion engine. about emissions damaging his coastal habitat led Moreover, Wolf is no stranger to developing aircraft. him to install enough solar panels on his outfit’s roofs Knowing that Cape Air’s fleet of pampered Cessna to more than satisfy its electrical needs. And he has 402Cs was nearing retirement, and unable to entice signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to buy any U.S. manufacturer to build a replacement for them, wind-generated electricity for future consumption. the carrier worked with Italy’s eager Tecnam in the de- The two forward-leaners have shared histories, inter- sign, systems selection and outfitting of the P2012 Trav- ests and vision. Both are pilots with thousands of flight eller, which the FAA certified last year. Cape Air already hours logged. Each founded and leads a successful re- has 11 of the unpressurized, 9-10-passenger piston twins gional airline—McDougall’s Vancouver-based Harbour in service, expects 20 to be delivered this year and has Air Seaplanes and Wolf’s Cape Air in Massachusetts options on an additional 92. Wolf sees Alice and Trav- and beyond—and, nota- eller as complementary bly, they so believe avia- and thinks an electric tion’s future will cruise eFly Fellows version of the latter cleanly and profitably on could eventuate. kilowatts, they are com- A 15-min. change of course for aviation? On Dec. 10, 2019, Mc- mitting to electric flight. Dougall was first to put McDougall was in- the shared vision to trigued with the numer- flight when he ascend- ous projects underway ed from Harbour Air’s globally to bring electric Fraser River terminal MRO TransAtlantic propulsion to aviation. in a company de Havil- Although many efforts land DHC-2 Beaver fit- were in early develop- ted with a Magni500, ment, he became con- making good on his Hall vinced the technology’s of Fame prediction. “To- October 27-29 promise of dramatically day, we made history,” he lower maintenance and said, calling the flight of energy costs combined HARBOUR AIR CAPE AIR the commercial, six-pas- with zero emissions is what commercial aviation needs. senger “ePlane” an “incredible world-class milestone.” So sure was he that upon his induction into Canada’s That first flight lasted just 15 min. as a result of the Aviation Hall of Fame last year, he told the gala audi- low-density batteries used. However, McDougall believes ence the honor was premature since his company’s that thanks to the ongoing improvements in battery tech- singular achievement would be its adoption of electric nology, once his eOtters are operating in about two years, propulsion. He recalls the diners reacting with “disbe- they should have performance and payloads similar to lief, ridicule, all kinds of things.” today’s and enough duration to satisfy Harbour Air’s net- Undeterred, he became a vocal advocate of electri- work. The majority of the carrier’s flights average about fication, and his word traveled. Presently, he got a call 28 min. The battery will be recharged at each destina- from Roei Ganzarski, CEO of MagniX, a young company tion with 1 min. of charge equal to 1 min. of flight time. developing electric aircraft motors that recently estab- Harbour Air plans to obtain and own the supple- lished headquarters in Seattle. Days later, the two met mental type certificate for the installation. for coffee and before a refill had agreed to collaborate. As for Alice, its first flight was scrubbed this past McDougall envisioned refitting Harbour Air’s 22 January when a fire during ground-testing in Arizona workhorse de Havilland Canada DHC-3 Otter float- damaged the prototype beyond repair. A replacement is planes with electric power. Years earlier, he had pio- in the works. Unconcerned, Wolf stands by his MOU to neered replacing the de Havillands’ radials with Pratt & put the first 15 trimotors into service. He describes Alice Whitney PT-6s. Now, those turboprops would give way as “an amazing piece of technology,” which he expects to MagniX’s 750-hp (560-kW) Magni500 motors. to have in Cape Air livery in three or four years. Similarly, Wolf was evaluating which electric-avia- Meanwhile, early adopter McDougall says he is tion projects had the best chance of commercial suc- thrilled to be “pioneering something dramatically new cess. He finally settled upon Eviation, a MagniX sibling in aviation.” c For details: events.aviationweek.com developing “Alice”—an all-composite, nine-passenger aircraft that is propelled by three tail- and wing- William Garvey is Editor-in-Chief of Business & Commercial Aviation

12 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE > Pentagon funds boost Skydio p. 16 USAF alters fighter acquisition strategy p. 48 Tempest industrial base expands p. 50 Eurofighter needs faster planning p. 51 Japan’s accelerates F-X timeline p. 57 WEIGHT EXPECTAT IONS Steve Trimble Washington n piecing together a delicate plan to field two advanced rotorcraft simultaneously within a decade, the U.S. Army chose its Ipriorities carefully. The Army could load the first Future Long-Range Assault Aircraft (FLRAA) and Future Attack Reconnaissance Air- craft (FARA) with advanced new systems and weapons needed for operations in the 2030s or keep to existing or highly mature technologies and field both aircraft years earlier. Ultimately, the Army selected an acquisition strategy BELL AND SIKORSKY CONCEPTS based on the latter. Increment 1 versions of the FLRAA and FARA are now scheduled to enter service together in the third quarter of fiscal 2030. More advanced Increment 2 versions of both should enter service in 2034 and 2035, respectively. But the key to fielding both increments for each new type on time may depend less on rotor systems and drivetrains than on software architecture and resolving industry con- Mission systems and aircraft systems will be isolated cerns about government demands for data rights. from each other in the Future Attack Reconnaissance In a series of briefings to defense contractors the week of Aircraft, with bidders narrowed to the Bell 360 (top) and July 13, Army leaders laid out a vision for using the FLRAA and FARA contracts to change the aviation branch’s rela- Sikorsky Raider X. tionship with suppliers. The Army is seeking to make the service in 2030 exceeding the 170-kt. speed limit for most aircraft and mission systems installed on both as common conventional helicopters. as possible, with a modular open-systems architecture But despite appearances, speed is not everything in (MOSA) allowing the service to rapidly upgrade payloads, the Future Vertical Lift (FVL) program that spawned the subsystems and design rights, thereby enabling a perpetual FLRAA and FARA contract competitions. cycle of competitive bidding. The FVL initiative is seeking to introduce a revolutionary leap in how the Army acquires the evolving array of software, electronics, sensors and weapons that come with an “If it’s not affordable, they’re aircraft and represent an increasingly important share of walking away from it.” its overall capability. With schedule and cost driving the acquisition strategy, Although the Army’s commitment to the new industri- the Army will seek to deliver the FARA and FLRAA with as al model was clear, the service’s acquisition leaders ac- many common electronic systems and payloads as possible, knowledged that such a strategy will force companies at along with a MOSA for software. To minimize schedule and all levels of the supply chain to adopt a new, unproven cost risk, FARA and FLRAA aircraft entering service in business model. 2030 will be designed with electronics and systems already “Most of you are thinking, ‘OK, a modular systems ap- available or due to reach a high level of maturity by 2024. proach is a nice buzz term, but how do I sell that to a board More advanced systems capabilities still at the labora- of directors; how do I sell it to the [company] leadership?’ tory stage mid-decade will be considered for Increment Because I can potentially give up all of the future revenue 2 versions of both types. The Increment 2 version of the streams,” says Pat Mason, the program executive officer FLRAA is scheduled for delivery in fiscal 2034. A year later, for Army aviation. “So we owe you greater answers on the FARA program plans to field an Increment 2 version. that, because it’s the question that you’re asking, and we Limiting development activity during Increment 1 to the have to understand your perspective. From that, we then airframe is the Army’s goal. have to develop a clear business case that allows you to “One of the key things we’re trying to do with Increment move forward.” 1 is get the ‘truck’ right—the vehicle,” says Jason Lucas, the In purely aircraft performance terms, the FLRAA Army’s FLRAA technical division chief. “We need to get us and FARA requirements do not compromise on perfor - an air vehicle platform that can take us into the future. The mance. Any of the four candidates selected by the Army other thing that we absolutely have to get right is our archi- in March to compete for both contracts—Bell’s V-280 and tecture, and our modular open-system approach to enable Boeing/Sikorsky’s SB-1 for the FLRAA; Bell’s 360 Invic- us to integrate advanced technologies [and] keep up with tus and Sikorsky’s Raider X for the FARA—would enter the pace of threats.

14 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE > Pentagon funds boost Skydio p. 16 USAF alters fighter acquisition strategy p. 48 Tempest industrial base expands p. 50 Eurofighter needs faster planning p. 51 Japan’s accelerates F-X timeline p. 57

> U.S. ARMY FVL VISION: COMPETITION, OPEN SYSTEMS AND INCREMENTAL UPGRADES WEIGHT EXPECTAT IONS > EMPTY WEIGHT AND COSTS EMERGE AS EARLY CONCERNS Steve Trimble Washington FARA/FLRAA Potential Common Systems n piecing together a delicate plan to field Aircraft two advanced rotorcraft simultaneously Communications Navigation Survivability Sensors Other within a decade, the U.S. Army chose its Equipment Infrared and Degraded visual Radios GPS radio-frequency Launcher priorities carefully. environment I countermeasures The Army could load the first Future Long-Range Assault Pilotage/ Air-launched Link 16 Digital map Missile warning Aircraft (FLRAA) and Future Attack Reconnaissance Air- targeting effects craft (FARA) with advanced new systems and weapons needed for operations in the 2030s or keep to existing or highly Advanced Obstacle Mission Radar warning Radar mature technologies and field both aircraft years earlier. networking awareness computers Ultimately, the Army selected an acquisition strategy BELL AND SIKORSKY CONCEPTS Assured based on the latter. Increment 1 versions of the FLRAA Advanced precision, Helmet- Digital Laser warning and FARA are now scheduled to enter service together in teaming navigation mounted display backbone the third quarter of fiscal 2030. More advanced Increment and timing

2 versions of both should enter service in 2034 and 2035, U.S. ARMY Health Operating Identification Autonomy Expendables respectively. monitoring environment But the key to fielding both increments for each new type Source: U.S. Army on time may depend less on rotor systems and drivetrains than on software architecture and resolving industry con- Mission systems and aircraft systems will be isolated An Increment 2 version of the Future Long-Range Assault Another difficult conversation inside the programs concerns about government demands for data rights. from each other in the Future Attack Reconnaissance Aircraft should arrive about four years after either cerns the Army’s plan to demand ownership of more of the In a series of briefings to defense contractors the week of intellectual property and data rights for technologies in- Aircraft, with bidders narrowed to the Bell 360 (top) and the Sikorsky/Boeing SB-1 (top) or Bell V-280 enters July 13, Army leaders laid out a vision for using the FLRAA stalled in the aircraft. As each of the armed services seeks and FARA contracts to change the aviation branch’s rela- Sikorsky Raider X. service in 2030. a greater share of the ownership rights on future weapon tionship with suppliers. The Army is seeking to make the service in 2030 exceeding the 170-kt. speed limit for most “One of the things you didn’t hear me say is that we need systems, the defense industry is being forced to adapt to aircraft and mission systems installed on both as common conventional helicopters. to develop a lot of advanced mission system equipment, a a new paradigm in the government-industry relationship. as possible, with a modular open-systems architecture But despite appearances, speed is not everything in lot of new development” in Increment 1, Lucas adds. “We “We realize this runs contrary to some of the legacy busi- (MOSA) allowing the service to rapidly upgrade payloads, the Future Vertical Lift (FVL) program that spawned the are going to take existing mission equipment.” ness models, such as, ‘Here’s a box. We want to integrate it subsystems and design rights, thereby enabling a perpetual FLRAA and FARA contract competitions. The Army’s risk-averse approach comes after decades and then we want to sustain it for 30 years,’” says Michael cycle of competitive bidding. The FVL initiative is seeking to introduce a revolutionary of frustration over new aircraft development. Three failed “Ski” Horrocks, integration project manager for FLRAA leap in how the Army acquires the evolving array of soft- attempts to field a scout helicopter to perform a mission and FARA mission systems. “So we do have teams working ware, electronics, sensors and weapons that come with an similar to FARA’s weigh on current program leaders. right now brainstorming how to create new collaborative “If it’s not affordable, they’re aircraft and represent an increasingly important share of Col. Gregory Fortier, FARA project manager, notes that as a and sustainable business models.” walking away from it.” its overall capability. younger officer he had been told to expect an assignment in The in-service date for the FLRAA and FARA may be a With schedule and cost driving the acquisition strategy, a Sikorsky/Boeing RAH-66 squadron, a Bell ARH-70 squad- decade away, but the Army is already facing critical decision Although the Army’s commitment to the new industri- the Army will seek to deliver the FARA and FLRAA with as ron and an Armed Aerial Scout test squadron. points by year-end. The most important is creation of the al model was clear, the service’s acquisition leaders ac- many common electronic systems and payloads as possible, “As we know, those three did not come to fruition,” Fortier FVL Architecture Framework (FAF) to define the interfaces knowledged that such a strategy will force companies at along with a MOSA for software. To minimize schedule and says, adding that avoiding a fourth program failure requires and standards for the common mission systems architecture all levels of the supply chain to adopt a new, unproven cost risk, FARA and FLRAA aircraft entering service in having “critical and difficult conversations” with industry of both. Last year, the Army stood up a body composed of business model. 2030 will be designed with electronics and systems already up front. military, industry and academic experts called the Architec- “Most of you are thinking, ‘OK, a modular systems ap- available or due to reach a high level of maturity by 2024. Such discussions came up during the industry day event. ture Control Working Group to deliver the FAF by November proach is a nice buzz term, but how do I sell that to a board More advanced systems capabilities still at the labora- As a possible consequence of relying on existing maturing 2020 for scheduled approval the following month. of directors; how do I sell it to the [company] leadership?’ tory stage mid-decade will be considered for Increment systems and payloads for the Increment 1 versions of the “We see Increment 2 as an opportunity to provide advanced Because I can potentially give up all of the future revenue 2 versions of both types. The Increment 2 version of the FARA and FLRAA, Army program managers are growing mission system solutions to help tackle some of the most sig- streams,” says Pat Mason, the program executive officer FLRAA is scheduled for delivery in fiscal 2034. A year later, concerned about aircraft weight estimates. nificant threats and integrate some innovation,” Lucas says. for Army aviation. “So we owe you greater answers on the FARA program plans to field an Increment 2 version. “I’m still seeing very heavy empty weights across our air The Army’s schedule calls for selecting the FLRAA de- that, because it’s the question that you’re asking, and we Limiting development activity during Increment 1 to the vehicles, which I don’t enjoy,” says Brig. Gen. Walter Rugen, veloper in fiscal 2023 and the FARA prime contractor in have to understand your perspective. From that, we then airframe is the Army’s goal. director of the Army’s FVL cross-functional team. fiscal 2024, with limited user tests of production aircraft have to develop a clear business case that allows you to “One of the key things we’re trying to do with Increment FLRAA and FARA technology “should be lighter and beginning for each program four years later. But a lesson move forward.” 1 is get the ‘truck’ right—the vehicle,” says Jason Lucas, the lower-cost,” he says. “You all may say I’m asking for the from the Army’s painful experience with new aircraft devel- In purely aircraft performance terms, the FLRAA Army’s FLRAA technical division chief. “We need to get us impossible, but I think it’s nuanced. At the end of the day, opment suggests little tolerance for costly technology, even and FARA requirements do not compromise on perfor - an air vehicle platform that can take us into the future. The we’re in a hypercompetitive environment with budgets, if the contractors can deliver better performance. mance. Any of the four candidates selected by the Army other thing that we absolutely have to get right is our archi- and if we don’t bring things in that are leap-ahead and fully “We can develop and design and deliver this tremen- in March to compete for both contracts—Bell’s V-280 and tecture, and our modular open-system approach to enable capture the deflationary nature of the technology and get dous capability at the end of this fiscal 2028 timeframe,” Boeing/Sikorsky’s SB-1 for the FLRAA; Bell’s 360 Invic- us to integrate advanced technologies [and] keep up with lighter and cheaper, I think we may find ourselves on the Fortier says. “But if it’s not affordable, they’re walking away tus and Sikorsky’s Raider X for the FARA—would enter the pace of threats. outside looking in.” from it.” c

14 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 15 DEFENSE

students founded Skydio in SY 2014. Within four years, the company released the Skydio Skydio’s new X2D model is built to R1, a $2,500 quadcopter fi tted U.S. Army Short-Range Reconnaissance with 12 navigation cameras, program speci cations. depth and motion sensors, and an embedded “autonomy engine” fl ight computer running artifi cial intelligence (AI) software, all enabling it to ac- curately sense its position and avoid obstacles. Valued as a “self-flying” hobby aircraft with “follow-me” functionality, and capable of shooting 4K-resolution video, the R1 was considered a breakthrough model in autonomous consumer drones. Skydio built it as a limited edition, and it is no longer in production. dual-sensor payload with color and the companies—Skydio and Parrot— In October 2019, the company un- FLIR Systems’ Boson long-wave to participate in a user evaluation veiled the Skydio 2, which is small- infrared cameras, increases flight July 13-31 at Fort Benning, Georgia. er (1.7 lb.) and cheaper ($999) than duration to 35 min. from 23 min. for Plans call for awarding a production the R1, but with orders of magni- the Skydio 2, and comes with new contract to one vendor in the first tude more visual-sensing acuity. A mission-optimized software releases. quarter of fi scal 2021, which begins quadcopter with offset front (be- The X2D model is built to U.S. Army in October. Parrot has an agree- low airframe) and back (above air- Short-Range Reconnaissance (SRR) ment with contract manufacturer frame) rotors, the Skydio 2 is fi tted program specifi cations. NEOTech, of Chatsworth, California, with six 4K navigation cameras in Notably, X2 drones will be assem- to build its drones in the U.S. top-and-bottom, trinocular config- bled at Skydio’s Redwood City, Cali- The Defense Department and uration, producing 45 megapixels fornia, facility using primarily U.S.- Texas A&M University cosponsored of resolution compared to about 3 sourced components. That will be a a Drone Venture Day in November megapixels available from the R1, the key consideration as suspicion that 2019 at which 39 manufacturers of company says. Chinese-made drones present a data unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) The Skydio 2 fl ight computer runs security risk gels into policy at the and counter-UAS systems met Skydio’s software on an Nvidia Tegra federal level, and the Pentagon seeks with investors. TX2 processor. Its front-facing, gim- to reinvigorate a domestic manufac- Explaining the initiative at a later baled main camera, a Sony IMX577 turing base for small drones. briefi ng with reporters, Ellen Lord, image sensor with Qualcomm That road is paved with broken undersecretary of defense for acqui- RedDragon processor, shoots 4K, 60 ambitions. 3D Robotics of Berkeley, sition and sustainment, said: “I think frames/sec., high-dynamic-range video. California, introduced the Solo quad- you know that DJI fl ooded the market

1 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE

Is There Another Contender for copter in 2015 but halted production after burning through a reported Drone Industry Dominance? $100 million in venture capital; the company reverted to selling enter- > SKYDIO WINS PENTAGON INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT prise software for drones, including DJI models. Action camera manu- > AFTER DJI MODELS, LOCAL AGENCIES FAVOR SKYDIO 2 facturer GoPro unveiled the Karma quadcopter in 2016 but recalled 2,500 Bill Carey Washington units within weeks of its launch and discontinued production in 2018. n initially consumer-orient- On July 13, Skydio announced a In April 2019, the Army and the ARR ed drone manufacturer has $100 million Series C venture capital Pentagon’s Defense Innovation Unit Aemerged as a potential coun- infusion—increasing the funding it selected Skydio and fi ve other com- terweight in the U.S. to China’s DJI, has raised to $170 million—and the panies—Vantage Robotics, Altavian, which dominates the world market launch of a third-generation, X2 fam- Teal Drones, Lumenier and France’s for sophisticated hobby and commer- ily of ruggedized quadcopters with Parrot—to develop “rucksack- with low-cost quadcopters particular- On June 30, Parrot unveiled weren’t able to decipher that, but we cial drones. folding rotor arms for the commercial portable” vertical-takeo¨ -and- landing ly, which eroded our industrial base the commercial Ana USA, which sense that it’s probably a combination Former Google Project Wing en- and government markets. prototype models for evaluation un- and really altered the landscape for is based on its development of a of those factors.” gineers who met as Massachusetts Scheduled for release in the der the SRR program. the U.S. government and for the small The obstacle-avoidance capability quadcopter for the U.S. Army. Institute of Technology graduate fourth quarter, the X2 series adds a This spring, the Army chose two of drone industry. What we want to do is of the Skydio 2 is credited with helping the Chula Vista, California, police students founded Skydio in SY reinvigorate that [base].” 2014. Within four years, the The fi scal 2020 National Defense Policies aimed at suppressing the department obtain a new close-prox- company released the Skydio Skydio’s new X2D model is built to Authorization Act (NDAA) signed market for Chinese-made drones imity, low-altitude waiver from the R1, a $2,500 quadcopter fi tted U.S. Army Short-Range Reconnaissance into law in December 2019 prohibits mainly target Shenzhen, China-based FAA. That waiver allows it to fl y the with 12 navigation cameras, program speci cations. the U.S. military from buying Chi- DJI, which is reputed to own 70% of drone beyond the visual line of sight depth and motion sensors, nese-made UAS including fl ight con- the global market share for small hob- of an operator, as long as the aircraft and an embedded “autonomy trollers, radios, data transmission de- by and commercial models. A ord able ascends no higher than 50 ft. o the engine” fl ight computer run- vices, cameras, gimbals and software. and technologically sophisticated, DJI ground and stays within 1,500 ft. lat- ning artifi cial intelligence (AI) The American Security Drone drones are particularly popular with erally of the pilot. software, all enabling it to ac- Act, bipartisan legislation spear- U.S. state and local police and pub- In July, the Pentagon named Skydio curately sense its position and headed by Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) lic-safety agencies. as one of fi ve recipients of $13.4 mil- avoid obstacles. would prohibit U.S. federal agencies A spring 2020 survey of local agen- lion in industrial base investments Valued as a “self-flying” from procuring drones from coun- cies by the Airborne International Re- for small UAS systems, paid from the hobby aircraft with “fol- tries identifi ed as national security sponse Team (AIRT), a nonprofi t re- Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic low-me” functionality, and threats, namely China. The Senate search organization based in Miami, Security Act. The company received capable of shooting 4K-reso- Homeland Security and Governmen- revealed just how popular DJI drones $4 million to improve its radio control lution video, the R1 was con- tal A airs Committee approved the are with first responders. Of 257 data link so that it can be used across sidered a breakthrough mod- legislation in March. agencies that answered the question government agencies. el in autonomous consumer Earlier this year, Interior Secretary of which drone brands they operate, Among other recent government drones. Skydio built it as a David Bernhardt formally ordered his 90.6% said DJI. awards, the Drug Enforcement Ad- limited edition, and it is no department to stop fl ying UAS man- Following in second place, sur- ministration signed a $37,470 pur- longer in production. dual-sensor payload with color and the companies—Skydio and Parrot— ufactured in China or made with Chi- prisingly, was Skydio at 10.89%, then chase order with Skydio in May. In October 2019, the company un- FLIR Systems’ Boson long-wave to participate in a user evaluation nese components, e ectively ground- Autel Robotics of Bothell, Washing- “The U.S. government and the veiled the Skydio 2, which is small- infrared cameras, increases flight July 13-31 at Fort Benning, Georgia. ing its fl eet of 810 small drones. ton, at 8.95%, Parrot at 7.39% and [Defense Department] have astutely er (1.7 lb.) and cheaper ($999) than duration to 35 min. from 23 min. for Plans call for awarding a production “The X2 product is fully compliant China’s Yuneec at 7%. recognized that these small consum- the R1, but with orders of magni- the Skydio 2, and comes with new contract to one vendor in the first with both the NDAA and the Amer- “One of the things that really er drones are incredibly useful tools tude more visual-sensing acuity. A mission-optimized software releases. quarter of fi scal 2021, which begins ican Security Drone Act, which are popped out for us is Skydio basically for a wide range of use cases,” says quadcopter with offset front (be- The X2D model is built to U.S. Army in October. Parrot has an agree- designed to mitigate the potential capturing 11% of the fl eet makeup, only Bry. “There’s a need and a desire to low airframe) and back (above air- Short-Range Reconnaissance (SRR) ment with contract manufacturer security risks associated with Chi- nine months after the Skydio 2 came have U.S. companies competing in frame) rotors, the Skydio 2 is fi tted program specifi cations. NEOTech, of Chatsworth, California, nese components,” says Adam Bry, out. Skydio basically leapfrogged this space. We’re proud and excited with six 4K navigation cameras in Notably, X2 drones will be assem- to build its drones in the U.S. Skydio co-founder and CEO. all of those players in less than nine to be a part of that, but we also think top-and-bottom, trinocular config- bled at Skydio’s Redwood City, Cali- The Defense Department and “In particular, we write all of our months, according to this data,” said our products can and should stand on uration, producing 45 megapixels fornia, facility using primarily U.S.- Texas A&M University cosponsored software ourselves in-house in Red- AIRT Executive Director Christopher their own. of resolution compared to about 3 sourced components. That will be a a Drone Venture Day in November wood City,” he adds. “All the proces- Todd, who announced the survey re- “Our focus from the very beginning megapixels available from the R1, the key consideration as suspicion that 2019 at which 39 manufacturers of sors are sourced from other U.S. com- sults on July 13. in 2014 has been on delivering full au- company says. Chinese-made drones present a data unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) panies—Nvidia, Qualcomm—that’s “We’ve had some internal debate tonomy in our drones. We think that’s The Skydio 2 fl ight computer runs security risk gels into policy at the and counter-UAS systems met the silicon that we’re lying on. We do as we’ve peer-reviewed this,” added a core pillar of making them useful for Skydio’s software on an Nvidia Tegra federal level, and the Pentagon seeks with investors. everything we can to minimize our Todd. “Did Skydio catapult because of a lot of di erent customers. The los- TX2 processor. Its front-facing, gim- to reinvigorate a domestic manufac- Explaining the initiative at a later dependence on Chinese components, their revolutionary sense-and-avoid ing strategy, for sure, is to try to copy baled main camera, a Sony IMX577 turing base for small drones. briefi ng with reporters, Ellen Lord, but we do have commodity [items] autonomy technology? Was it be- what DJI is doing and to [produce] a image sensor with Qualcomm That road is paved with broken undersecretary of defense for acqui- like injection-molded plastics, metals, cause they are a U.S. manufacturer more expensive and worse version of RedDragon processor, shoots 4K, 60 ambitions. 3D Robotics of Berkeley, sition and sustainment, said: “I think things of that nature [that] are still and there is a movement away from their product. That’s not what we’re frames/sec., high-dynamic-range video. California, introduced the Solo quad- you know that DJI fl ooded the market coming from China.” foreign into U.S.-made products? We going after.” c

1 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 1 COMMERCIAL AVIATION > Regional turboprops’ role in the recovery p. 20 CR929 wrangling extends development p. 37

> MAX TRAINING UPDATES PROMPT MEMORY-ITEM CHECKLIST DISCUSSION nently in the two fatal MAX accident sequences, Lion Air Flight 610 (JT610) in October 2018 and Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 (ET302) in March 2019, that CHALLENGES led to the model’s March 2019 grounding and changes by Boeing, including Sean Broderick Washington the modified training. Boeing’s proposed updates include new wording ndustry’s scrutiny of the 737 MAX as part of Boeing’s e£ ort for both checklists based solely on to get the grounded model back into service may lead to a human-factors lessons gleaned from the accidents and subsequent reviews. broader review of how pilots are trained to handle problems But the risks that either scen ario pres- that require immediate responses. ents, especially if the aircraft is close I to the ground when trouble strikes, Proposed training changes be- pilots to memorize a few key steps on a mean pilots have little time to spare ing reviewed by operators and the dozen or so critical checklists, the car- before taking initial action. FAA include modifi cations to seven riers created a quick reference card “All of the [non-normal] checklists non-normal checklists (NNC). Some (QRC) with just the memory items are important. But looking at those were necessary to align procedures that pilots can access when needed. two, something bad can happen if with modifi cations Boeing has made American’s QRC is a two-sided you’re close to the ground,” says to the MAX fl ight control computer placard when printed, while an inter- Dennis Tajer, an American 737 pilot software that regulators demanded— active digital version on a pilot’s tablet and spokesman for the Allied Pilots part of the ramifi cations of two fatal features hyperlinks to relevant, more Association that represents the car- accidents in fi ve months that led to detailed troubleshooting instructions. rier’s pilots. “You don’t have a lot of the model’s March 2019 grounding. Its pilots have largely welcomed the time to pull out a card.” But changes to fi ve of the checklists late 2018 shift to QRCs. But in review- While carriers must have all fl ight stem from human factors-related ing the proposed MAX training, a con- manuals, including checklists, ap- reviews that determined pilots need sensus is building around modifying more and better information to han- American’s pilot protocol by having dle time-sensitive, high-risk scenarios pilots recommit at least two proce- properly (AW&ST July 13-26, p. 18). dures to memory : airspeed unreliable Large MAX customer American and runaway stabilizer. Airlines is taking its review a step Both procedures figured promi- further, looking at how it handles the most critical NNC elements—immediate-action or “memory” items. American is among a handful of carriers at the forefront of an emerging trend that sees operators limiting, or in American’s case, completely eliminating, memory items from its procedures. Instead of requiring

Scrutiny of the 737 MAX checklists could lead to a broader discussion on how pilots prepare for emergencies.

AS RMAY MAS

1 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMERCIAL AVIATION > Regional turboprops’ role in the recovery p. 20 CR929 wrangling extends development p. 37

> MAX TRAINING UPDATES > BOEING IS CHANGING > ISSUE SPOTLIGHTS LACK Boeing’s changes to the MAX are PROMPT MEMORY-ITEM 737 MAX PILOT OF RESEARCH ON BEST covering both bases. The JT610 pilots’ checklist struggles began before the DISCUSSION CHECKLISTS PRACTICES MCAS activated, when they received CHECKLIST an airspeed unreliable warning just nently in the two fatal MAX accident proved by regulators on an individual Gulfstream, on the other hand, does after takeoff but before retracting sequences, Lion Air Flight 610 (JT610) basis, American’s move could have not identify any abnormal or emer- the flaps, which is one condition for in October 2018 and Ethiopian Airlines wider ramifications. Both of the oth- gency procedures as memory items, activation of the MCAS. The captain, Flight 302 (ET302) in March 2019, that er U.S.-based 737 MAX operators, “yet . . . expects pilots to perform acting as pilot flying, asked for the air- CHALLENGES led to the model’s March 2019 ground- Southwest Airlines and United Air- some of the initial and critical steps speed unreliable checklist. The first ing and changes by Boeing, including lines, also use QRCs. without reference to any documenta- officer (FO) did not respond initially, Sean Broderick Washington the modified training. Boeing’s pro- The bigger picture is that the scru- tion,” an FAA document on G650 pilot then told the captain that he could not posed updates include new wording tiny of how pilots are expected to react training explains. find it and it did not exist. More than 3 ndustry’s scrutiny of the 737 MAX as part of Boeing’s e£ ort for both checklists based solely on in the most critical situations could Eliminating all memory items is un- min. after the initial request, and fol- to get the grounded model back into service may lead to a human-factors lessons gleaned from see higher-level changes and perhaps avoidable. Even at carriers that have lowing what the National Transpor- the accidents and subsequent reviews. even more common ground among embraced QRCs or similar approach- tation Safety Committee final report broader review of how pilots are trained to handle problems But the risks that either scen ario pres- manufacturers and regulators. es, pilots must be prepared to react in on the accident describes as “sound that require immediate responses. ents, especially if the aircraft is close Emergency checklists are a cru- certain situations by relying only on similar to paper pages being turned” I to the ground when trouble strikes, cial part of every pilot’s training, yet their recall. American prohibits QRC captured by the cockpit voice record- Proposed training changes be- pilots to memorize a few key steps on a mean pilots have little time to spare there is no consensus around how use until an aircraft’s landing gear is er, the FO began reading the checklist. ing reviewed by operators and the dozen or so critical checklists, the car- before taking initial action. to best design memory-item check- retracted, its flight path is under con- “The inability for the FO to per - FAA include modifi cations to seven riers created a quick reference card “All of the [non-normal] checklists lists or even whether to use them. A trol, and the aircraft is at least 400 ft. form memory items and locate the non-normal checklists (NNC). Some (QRC) with just the memory items are important. But looking at those 2013 Euro pean Union Aviation Safe- above ground level, for instance. Nearly checklist in the [quick reference were necessary to align procedures that pilots can access when needed. two, something bad can happen if ty Agency review of the issue found all operators have similar de facto re- handbook] in a timely manner indi- with modifi cations Boeing has made American’s QRC is a two-sided you’re close to the ground,” says plenty of studies on memory during quirements linked to engine-related cated that the FO was not familiar to the MAX fl ight control computer placard when printed, while an inter- Dennis Tajer, an American 737 pilot high-stress situations but laments emergency procedures. Taking such an with the NNC,” the report says. “This software that regulators demanded— active digital version on a pilot’s tablet and spokesman for the Allied Pilots “comparatively little research” on approach supports shifting most mem- condition was reappearance of mis- part of the ramifi cations of two fatal features hyperlinks to relevant, more Association that represents the car- emergency checklists specifically. ory items to QRCs by requiring pilots to identifying NNC, which showed on accidents in fi ve months that led to detailed troubleshooting instructions. rier’s pilots. “You don’t have a lot of The lack of reliable research has remember only the most critical steps the FO’s training records.” the model’s March 2019 grounding. Its pilots have largely welcomed the time to pull out a card.” led to notably diverse approaches. in a minimum number of scenarios. While the report took the FO’s But changes to fi ve of the checklists late 2018 shift to QRCs. But in review- While carriers must have all fl ight A 2006 UK Civil Aviation Authority “Sometimes it is a good idea not to specific situation into account, it also stem from human factors-related ing the proposed MAX training, a con- manuals, including checklists, ap- guidance tool recommends keeping act too quickly and risk mixing some- faulted Boeing’s “assumption of rely- reviews that determined pilots need sensus is building around modifying memory-item steps “to a minimum thing up,” says one veteran Airbus ing on trained crew procedures, to im- more and better information to han- American’s pilot protocol by having (preferably fewer than four and cer- A320 captain. “Is your aircraft still plement [runaway stabilizer] memory dle time-sensitive, high-risk scenarios pilots recommit at least two proce- tainly no more than six) for multi-crew flying, and is there enough air below items” as “inappropriate.” properly (AW&ST July 13-26, p. 18). dures to memory : airspeed unreliable operations.” FAA guidance issued you? If both can be answered with Such criticism helped drive Boeing Large MAX customer American and runaway stabilizer. more than a decade ago says memory ‘yes,’ you actually do not need memo- to propose modifying seven of the Airlines is taking its review a step Both procedures figured promi- items “should be avoided whenever ry items. It’s better to make sure you MAX checklists. further, looking at how it handles the possible.” When necessary, memo- understand the problem.” “Pilots often criticize how engi - most critical NNC elements—imme- rized checklists should include no A lack of understanding played key neers design in a ‘1g environment,’ diate-action or “memory” items. more than two items and no decision roles in both of the aforementioned meaning in an air-conditioned, quiet American is among a handful of car- steps, the agency adds. MAX accident sequences. Boeing cubicle without accounting for the riers at the forefront of an emerging A multiyear NASA study on flight wrongly believed that any malfunction dirty, sweaty, noisy, tired, distracting trend that sees operators limiting, deck procedure design, released in triggering the aircraft’s Maneuvering world of operations,” says one senior or in American’s case, completely 2016 and partially funded by the FAA, Characteristics Augmentation System executive with OEM safety program eliminating, memory items from suggests that the U.S. MAX operators (MCAS) flight control law that provides development experience. “This short- its procedures. Instead of requiring are on the right track. “Avoid memory automatic nose-down horizontal stabi- coming has certainly come out in the items whenever possible,” the study lizer input would be diagnosed quickly 737 MAX crisis but was known well says in a set of recommendations to as runaway stabilizer. Pilots would ex- before those accidents as a problem organizations designing procedures. ecute the memory-item checklist, in- in engineering psychology.” “If the procedure must include memory cluding Item 5—toggling two switches While memory-item approaches will items, they should be clearly identified.” and depowering the stabilizer motor. continue to vary, the first step to safety While operators are responsible for Neither crew did that, however, improvement is recognizing the shared developing their own procedures, they though the ET302 pilots referenced responsibility. Operators must weigh Scrutiny of the 737 MAX checklists lean heavily on manufacturers’ boiler- the checklist during their efforts to how and when to implement memory could lead to a broader discussion on plate flight training and pilot manuals keep the MCAS, responding to er - items, while aircraft manufacturers how pilots prepare for emergencies. as templates. As is the case with regu- roneous angle-of-attack data from a “must strive to balance clarity and lators, there is little consensus among malfunctioning sensor, from pushing simplicity with comprehensiveness,” aircraft designers. their 737-8’s nose down. the senior executive says. “That is no Airbus and Boeing both include The design of the MCAS and how small feat, particularly when design- memory items in their manuals. Even pilots perceived its inadvertent ac- ing procedures for non-native English the newest designs such as the Airbus tivation proved to be a larger issue speakers who may also be inexperi- A350 have more than half a dozen. than the checklists themselves, but enced and fatigued.” c AS RMAY MAS

1 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 19 COMMERCIAL AVIATION

Regional Turboprops Spearhead announced on May 4, employees returned to work to focus on resuming Air Traffic Recovery preflight activities and delivery of [80-seat-class] Dash 8-400 aircraft. TURBOPROPS MAY HELP MAINTAIN NETWORKS Additional employees returned on > May 27, and more recently, we brought > ATR OFFERS AN ENHANCED VISION SYSTEM AS WELL AS FREIGHTER back our supply chain and procure- AND SHORT-TAKEOFF-AND-LANDING VERSIONS ment team members. These are incremental steps toward restarting Thierry Dubois Lyon full production.” In March, 800 employees, or 65% egional turboprop manufac- be stable, solid and independent. It of de Havilland Canada’s workforce, turers ATR and de Havilland was a difficult choice . . . but it is the were on paid leave. Since then, about RAircraft of Canada have been right decision because our future is at 140 employees who were formerly on suffering from the ongoing COVID-19 stake,” CEO Stefano Bortoli tells Avi- paid leave have returned to work. pandemic but may see light at the end ation Week. A major proportion of regional tur- of the tunnel earlier than other com- ATR’s management team has esti- boprops is in parked/reserved status mercial aviation segments. mated workload requirements so as to (defined as having flown either one or Regardless of its predicament, mar- retain skills and ramp up quickly when two of the previous seven days), or ket leader ATR is proceeding with the demand rebounds, Bortoli says. in parked or storage status. ATR has development of new variants in a bid to Production was stopped for only 10 576 aircraft in service as well as 106 in keep relevant an airframe that is 30+ days but is not yet back to precrisis parked/reserved status, according to years old. It is considering proceeding levels. Bortoli would not share the cur- Aviation Week data. with new propulsion configurations, as rent production rate, only saying it has This situation may evolve favor- Europe may see smaller aircraft as the undergone “a sizable decrease.” Last ably for operators and manufacturers. “Regional aircraft play a crucial

ATR role when the aviation industry works to reestablish markets,” says the de Havilland spokesperson. In July, Dash 8s are scheduled to serve 853 routes around the globe, according to the airframer’s statistics. Of these, 5% are routes previously operated by jets, 10% are new routes, and 85% are routes on which Dash 8 service has resumed or will resume. Bortoli echoes that view. Traffic will restart with domestic flights and in areas at lower risk of contagion such as the EU and the Australia-New Zealand travel zones, he says. Since carriers have to “test water temperature,” as Bortoli puts it, ATR aircraft are seen as well-placed thanks to their limited capacity and range. Teal Group analyst Richard Abou- ATR’s ClearVision enhanced vision system is designed to make landing in bad lafia agrees. Networks need to be kept weather possible more often. intact at lower passenger counts, and right stepping stones to switch to hy- year, the company delivered a total of regional aircraft can be part of the drogen or hybrid-electric power. 68 ATR 42s and ATR 72s (in the 40- solution, he points out. However, ATR On the other hand, ATR plans to and 70-seat classes, respectively). The salespersons may lose some of their cut 204 employees—including 186 in backlog of firm orders stands at 242 major marketing points. ATR’s lower France—from its 1,400-member work- aircraft, according to Aviation Week’s fuel consumption (less than that of force. When they made the announce- Fleet Discovery data. the Dash 8-400 and an asserted 40% ment, company executives said they In Canada, competitor de Havilland better than a same-size jet) is less accepted that recovery from the pan- is in a comparable situation since it pertinent when the fuel price is low, demic, although faster in the regional paused production in March and an- Aboulafia says. air traffic segment than elsewhere in nounced a restart in early May. “We ATR also is offering its new 72-600F commercial aviation, would be slow. have not resumed full-scale produc- freighter, which the company has been “This crisis means 2-3 years of tion yet, but we have started a phased developing since FedEx signed a firm lower volumes than over the past five return to work of employees and a order for 30 in 2017. Deliveries will years. . . . ATR has to resize its work- measured resumption of activities,” a start this year as planned, according force, creating conditions for ATR to spokesperson says. “In the first phase to Bortoli. The first one will operate

20 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMERCIAL AVIATION PROPULSION

Regional Turboprops Spearhead announced on May 4, employees rein Europe and the second in the U.S. turned to work to focus on resuming Two factors make the new vari- ULTRAFAN PLAN Air Traffic Recovery preflight activities and delivery of ant appear particularly relevant: the [80-seat-class] Dash 8-400 aircraft. growth of e-commerce and the accom- > COMPOSITE FAN AND CASE FOR DEMONSTRATOR IN FINAL ASSEMBLY > TURBOPROPS MAY HELP MAINTAIN NETWORKS Additional employees returned on panying need for parcel deliveries; and May 27, and more recently, we brought the decrease in belly cargo capacity on > ITP COMPLETES FIRST INTERMEDIATE-PRESSURE TURBINE CASE > ATR OFFERS AN ENHANCED VISION SYSTEM AS WELL AS FREIGHTER back our supply chain and procure- passenger aircraft as the number of ROLLS-ROYCE AND SHORT-TAKEOFF-AND-LANDING VERSIONS ment team members. These are in- flights has declined. cremental steps toward restarting Another aspect of regional airliners Thierry Dubois Lyon full production.” is ClearVision, the first enhanced-vi- In March, 800 employees, or 65% sion system in commercial aviation egional turboprop manufac- be stable, solid and independent. It of de Havilland Canada’s workforce, with a wearable display, which was turers ATR and de Havilland was a difficult choice . . . but it is the were on paid leave. Since then, about to enter service by this summer. But RAircraft of Canada have been right decision because our future is at 140 employees who were formerly on launch customer Aurigny Air Services suffering from the ongoing COVID-19 stake,” CEO Stefano Bortoli tells Avi- paid leave have returned to work. of Guernsey in the Channel Islands pandemic but may see light at the end ation Week. A major proportion of regional tur- had to delay the pilot training process of the tunnel earlier than other com- ATR’s management team has esti- boprops is in parked/reserved status due to the pandemic. The system is mercial aviation segments. mated workload requirements so as to (defined as having flown either one or designed to allow more frequent land- Regardless of its predicament, mar- retain skills and ramp up quickly when two of the previous seven days), or ings in bad weather, thus making flight ket leader ATR is proceeding with the demand rebounds, Bortoli says. in parked or storage status. ATR has schedules more dependable. development of new variants in a bid to Production was stopped for only 10 576 aircraft in service as well as 106 in ATR also is developing a short- keep relevant an airframe that is 30+ days but is not yet back to precrisis parked/reserved status, according to takeoff-and-landing (STOL) vari- years old. It is considering proceeding levels. Bortoli would not share the cur- Aviation Week data. ant of the ATR 42. Reduced-scale with new propulsion configurations, as rent production rate, only saying it has This situation may evolve favor- wind-tunnel testing is complete, and Europe may see smaller aircraft as the undergone “a sizable decrease.” Last ably for operators and manufactur- the first flight is scheduled for 2022. ers. “Regional aircraft play a crucial Aboulafia thinks well of the STOL

ATR role when the aviation industry works idea, saying ATR could sell a few to reestablish markets,” says the dozen, especially in Asia. de Havilland spokesperson. In July, In China, the airframer is zeroing in Dash 8s are scheduled to serve 853 on ATR 42-600 certification. In July, routes around the globe, according representatives of the Civil Aviation Guy Norris Los Angeles Overall fan diameter of the UltraFan to the airframer’s statistics. Of these, Administration of China participated ix and a half years after Rolls- demonstrator will be 140 in., produc- 5% are routes previously operated by in a certification flight in Toulouse, Royce revealed radical plans ing a bypass ratio of around 15:1. jets, 10% are new routes, and 85% are alongside their European Union Avi- Sto develop a next-generation routes on which Dash 8 service has ation Safety Agency counterparts. geared engine called the UltraFan, the Boeing pause their product-develop- resumed or will resume. The process is ongoing with review of company is starting to build up mod- ment planning. “We are keen to get Bortoli echoes that view. Traffic the paperwork issued at the end of the ules for the first demonstrator. through the technology de-risking will restart with domestic flights and flight. “There should not be a major Rated at 84,000-lb. thrust and stage . . . so having a little more time in areas at lower risk of contagion obstacle, but China is China,” Bortoli with a 140-in.-dia. composite fan, the to reflect on that might be beneficial,” such as the EU and the Australia-New says, referring to seemingly endless engine’s new core and geared drive says Andy Geer, chief engineer and Zealand travel zones, he says. Since red tape in the country. mark a departure from the three- UltraFan program head. carriers have to “test water tempera- China is a virtually untapped mar- shaft architecture that has formed “But the world doesn’t stand still. ture,” as Bortoli puts it, ATR aircraft ket for regional turboprops, and ATR the basis of the company’s big-fan Depending on the rate at which the are seen as well-placed thanks to their sees great potential there. In 2017, family since the 1970s. The engine is business recovers and to what extent limited capacity and range. two letters of intent were signed with scheduled to begin ground tests in the fuel price goes back to where it Teal Group analyst Richard Abou- small operators, but contracts have 2021, with follow-on units joining the was—or starts to attract carbon tax- ATR’s ClearVision enhanced vision system is designed to make landing in bad lafia agrees. Networks need to be kept yet to materialize. test effort in 2022 and paving the way ation—all of those factors could af- weather possible more often. intact at lower passenger counts, and Longer term, the French bailout for initial production versions later fect the dynamics of the market quite right stepping stones to switch to hy- year, the company delivered a total of regional aircraft can be part of the package for the aerospace industry rein the decade. quickly. We just have to be in a posi- drogen or hybrid-electric power. 68 ATR 42s and ATR 72s (in the 40- solution, he points out. However, ATR quires meeting binding environmental The engine size for those initial ap- tion to be ready for when that long- On the other hand, ATR plans to and 70-seat classes, respectively). The salespersons may lose some of their goals. A new regional aircraft, either plications remains unknown but lies term market recovery comes along,” cut 204 employees—including 186 in backlog of firm orders stands at 242 major marketing points. ATR’s lower hybrid-electric or hydrogen-powered within the 25,000-100,000-lb.-thrust Geer says. “It is still the purpose of the France—from its 1,400-member work- aircraft, according to Aviation Week’s fuel consumption (less than that of (which would involve a fuel cell), range covered by the scalable Ultra- demonstrator to be ready for whenev- force. When they made the announce- Fleet Discovery data. the Dash 8-400 and an asserted 40% should enter service in 2030. Funding Fan architecture. Having seen the er the customer airlines and airfram- ment, company executives said they In Canada, competitor de Havilland better than a same-size jet) is less of a private-public partnership for avi- first potential application, the New ers converge their strategic needs.” accepted that recovery from the pan- is in a comparable situation since it pertinent when the fuel price is low, ation research in the EU is expected Midmarket Airplane, disappear with Rolls believes nothing has changed demic, although faster in the regional paused production in March and an- Aboulafia says. to support that target. Boeing’s product-strategy rethink, to fundamentally alter either the goal air traffic segment than elsewhere in nounced a restart in early May. “We ATR also is offering its new 72-600F “After discussions at the sharehold- Rolls remains agnostic on initial can- of the UltraFan demonstrator or the commercial aviation, would be slow. have not resumed full-scale produc- freighter, which the company has been er level, we will have something to say didate applications. long-term prospects for the engine. “It’s “This crisis means 2-3 years of tion yet, but we have started a phased developing since FedEx signed a firm about ATR’s involvement in the proj- The collapse in global air transport scalable, and then you have choices,” lower volumes than over the past five return to work of employees and a order for 30 in 2017. Deliveries will ect by year-end,” Bortoli says. triggered by the COVID-19 pandem- Geer says. “Once you have demon- years. . . . ATR has to resize its work- measured resumption of activities,” a start this year as planned, according Airbus and Leonardo each own 50% ic may give Rolls more time to re - strated the capability, you have choice. force, creating conditions for ATR to spokesperson says. “In the first phase to Bortoli. The first one will operate of Toulouse-based ATR. c fine its initial offering as Airbus and And beyond that, you have credibility

20 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 21 PROPULSION ROLLS-ROYCE PHOTOS

when you offer those choices. The goal The UltraFan fan set will comprise 18 blades, one of which is seen in assembly is to get these technologies ready to at the company’s Composite Technology Facility in Bristol, England. use. The exact way we use them—the mix—we can adapt that once you have credibility of the technology set.” in Rolls’ current Trent engines, the completed the first fan case. Further To get to the demonstrator, Rolls UltraFan eliminates this large latter tests at UltraFan scale are planned in has focused on two main tracks: im- turbine section, making underwing a trailing-blade impact rig in 2021. proving thermal efficiency by build- installation easier. Testing of the power gearbox in ing the hotter, smaller core of the The first large components for the Dahlewitz, Germany, has been un- Advance3 test engine; and enhancing demonstrator engine are coming to- derway since the end of 2019 with the propulsive efficiency by developing gether. Initial composite fan blades eighth build-standard of engine-rep- new low-pressure (LP) system com- are in assembly following ground resentative hardware. The system ponents to increase bypass ratio with and flight tests under the Advanced consists of a ring gear enclosing five a bigger, slower fan. Low Pressure System program. De- planetary gears that rotate around a While the Advance3 core could veloped in partnership with indus- central sun gear. The fan drives off a form the heart of a future direct-drive try, the European Clean Sky and UK centrally mounted planet carrier. turbofan, it also paves the way for government Innovate programs, the The baseline gearbox design has the geared UltraFan. The new core blade set and composite fan case will been tested in a special attitude rig reduces the workload on the inter- save around 1,500 lb. per shipset on since 2016 and in a power rig since mediate-pressure (IP) compressor a twin-engine aircraft compared to a 2017. “We have a number of other units while increasing the workload on the metallic design. in build which will continue testing high-pressure (HP) compressor. “Having a low-speed fan is essential through 2021 to take it to maturity. Ba- The UltraFan’s new LP architec- when you move to such a high bypass sic characterization is now complete, ture builds on this by introducing ratio, so for this it involves both low- and we are happy with that,” Geer says. a bigger IP turbine that is used to speed aerodynamics and carbon-titani- Advance3 demonstrator tests have drive the IP compressor and fan via um construction,” Geer says. Building meanwhile passed the 100-hr. mark, a gearbox. By linking the fan to the on ground and flight testing at Trent including full-power runs. The ad- high-speed IP turbine instead of driv- 1000 scale, plus component tests vanced core is integrated with a Trent ing it directly with the LP turbine, as at UltraFan scale, the company has 1000 LP turbine and Trent XWB-84

22 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST PROPULSION ROLLS-ROYCE PHOTOS A Rolls-Pratt Partnership? Joe Anselmo and Michael Bruno Washington

THE COVID-19 DOWNTURN HAS PROVIDED BREATHING ture with Rolls “at some point.” The two engine-makers’ room for Rolls-Royce to define the UltraFan, its next- businesses are largely complementary—Pratt focuses generation geared engine. It is a rare bright spot for the on the narrowbody market and Rolls on widebodies— beleaguered engine-maker, which has seen earlier losses and they share a common competitor: GE Aviation and tied to expensive Trent 1000 fixes compounded by the its CFM International partnership with Safran. Those aviation market’s 2020 meltdown. synergies mean there could be a strong business case But a huge question remains: Where will Rolls find the for cooperation. money with which to see the ambitious project through? Rolls and Pratt have partnered before on International That has led to speculation about a partnership with Pratt Aero Engines, a multinational aircraft engine consortium; & Whitney, whose parent company, Raytheon Technol- Pratt bought out Rolls’ stake in that company in 2012. ogies, has deep pockets and a major defense business But while Hayes does not rule out another partnership, that is buffering it from the commercial downturn. he throws cold water on the idea of buying one of the Raytheon Technologies CEO Greg Hayes told Aviation UK’s technology leaders. “We’re not going to buy Rolls- Week in a recent interview that he is open to a joint ven- Royce,” he says. “That just doesn’t make sense.” c

fan system to demonstrate new fea- In parallel with testing under Ad- provide the best possible temperature tures including a low-emissions lean- vance3, the lean-burn design is being profile entry conditions to the turbine, burn combustor and additively man- evaluated under the Advanced Low that helps the engine system,” he says. ufactured components. Emissions Combustor System pro- Another area of testing is focused The rebuilt engine will return to gram. Reducing emissions by com- on the aerodynamics and mechanics test this year for a second phase that busting fuel more efficiently through of the UltraFan’s lightweight four- is scheduled to continue through 2021. a series of concentric burners, the de- stage IP turbine. Developed with The first phase characterized the sign has completed ground tests in a Rolls’ Spanish subsidiary ITP Aero, core’s basic behavior under relatively modified Trent 1000. A further phase the nickel alloy turbine section has controlled operating conditions. “Now of ground and flight tests is to start completed aerodynamic evaluation we get to push it into more extreme shortly, according to Geer. on a rig at the CTA Aerospace Test when you offer those choices. The goal The UltraFan fan set will comprise 18 blades, one of which is seen in assembly circumstances it would see in opera- A better combustion system also is Laboratory near Barcelona. ITP has is to get these technologies ready to at the company’s Composite Technology Facility in Bristol, England. tion,” Geer says. expected to maximize turbine capabil- manufactured the first IP turbine case use. The exact way we use them—the ity and help improve cycle efficiency in for the demonstrator. mix—we can adapt that once you have the UltraFan. The exit conditions of “We are moving quickly through the credibility of the technology set.” in Rolls’ current Trent engines, the completed the first fan case. Further Production of the barrel of the first the combustor play a significant role design release and manufacturing of To get to the demonstrator, Rolls UltraFan eliminates this large latter tests at UltraFan scale are planned in composite fan case, seen underway in the efficiency of the HP turbine. “If components across the whole of the has focused on two main tracks: im- turbine section, making underwing a trailing-blade impact rig in 2021. earlier this year, is now complete. you can design your combustor to UltraFan demonstrator engine,” re- proving thermal efficiency by build- installation easier. Testing of the power gearbox in ports Geer. “It’s a busy time, and it’s ing the hotter, smaller core of the The first large components for the Dahlewitz, Germany, has been un- not ideal that we happen to be do - Advance3 test engine; and enhancing demonstrator engine are coming to- derway since the end of 2019 with the ing this on the back of the COVID-19 propulsive efficiency by developing gether. Initial composite fan blades eighth build-standard of engine-rep- pandemic. Inevitably, it’s a bit of hard new low-pressure (LP) system com- are in assembly following ground resentative hardware. The system work at the moment, with the world ponents to increase bypass ratio with and flight tests under the Advanced consists of a ring gear enclosing five supply chain being disrupted.” a bigger, slower fan. Low Pressure System program. De- planetary gears that rotate around a Despite this, the demonstrator re- While the Advance3 core could veloped in partnership with indus- central sun gear. The fan drives off a mains on track to start tests in 2021. form the heart of a future direct-drive try, the European Clean Sky and UK centrally mounted planet carrier. “We’ve had hits as a result of COVID turbofan, it also paves the way for government Innovate programs, the The baseline gearbox design has and are seeing a range of challenges,” the geared UltraFan. The new core blade set and composite fan case will been tested in a special attitude rig he says. “If we only need a single part in reduces the workload on the inter- save around 1,500 lb. per shipset on since 2016 and in a power rig since a module, but it has been impacted by a mediate-pressure (IP) compressor a twin-engine aircraft compared to a 2017. “We have a number of other units supply-chain disruption, then it causes while increasing the workload on the metallic design. in build which will continue testing us to wait to launch that module. It’s high-pressure (HP) compressor. “Having a low-speed fan is essential through 2021 to take it to maturity. Ba- been a little bit hand-to-mouth in how The UltraFan’s new LP architec- when you move to such a high bypass sic characterization is now complete, that works out in today’s world.” c ture builds on this by introducing ratio, so for this it involves both low- and we are happy with that,” Geer says. a bigger IP turbine that is used to speed aerodynamics and carbon-titani- Advance3 demonstrator tests have drive the IP compressor and fan via um construction,” Geer says. Building meanwhile passed the 100-hr. mark, Check 6 Aviation Week editors talk a gearbox. By linking the fan to the on ground and flight testing at Trent including full-power runs. The ad- with chief engineer Andy Geer about why high-speed IP turbine instead of driv- 1000 scale, plus component tests vanced core is integrated with a Trent UltraFan will be an engine for all seasons: ing it directly with the LP turbine, as at UltraFan scale, the company has 1000 LP turbine and Trent XWB-84 AviationWeek.com/podcast

22 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 23 SUSTAINABILITY

Boeing Teams With Etihad for 2020 ecoDemonstrator

> THE 787-10 IS SEVENTH TYPE TO BE USED AS AN ECODEMONSTRATOR > THIS YEAR’S FLIGHT CAMPAIGN TESTS WILL FOCUS ON NOISE, AIR TRAFFIC EFFICIENCY AND SUSTAINABLE FUEL

Guy Norris Los Angeles With the drive for dertaken in partnership with NASA efficient flight oper- to validate tools to predict commu- ations accelerating nity noise impacts. Together with as airlines seek to Safran Landing Systems, Boeing recover from the expects to test flow deflectors, or COVID-19 pandem- fairings, to assess the potential for ONE IN A SERIES ic, Boeing is plan- reducing landing-gear noise on the ning another round 787 and future aircraft. is one of the prime contributors during of its ecoDemonstrator technology The 787-10 is nearing completion at approach and landing,” Creek says. program. Boeing’s South Carolina facility, from Safran research indicates landing The 2020 flight campaign will use a which it will be ferried to Glasgow, gear are responsible for 20-40% of yet-to-be-delivered 787-10 from Etihad Montana, for equipment installation perceived noise on approach, largely Airways, which signed a strategic sus- in mid-August. Flight tests are sched- due to turbulent flow around the leg tainability partnership with Boeing in uled to last less than three weeks, strut and support braces. In a bid to late 2019. Tests will focus on aircraft from August to early September. The reduce some of this turbulent inter- noise, four-dimensional route optimi- aircraft then will be returned to South action, airfoil-shaped fairings will be zation and synthetic fuel. Carolina for refurbishing and final out- attached to the main-gear drag and “This will really have an emphasis fitting before delivery to Etihad. side braces. on sustainability,” says Rae Lutters, The initial days of testing will be Perforated and solid flow-deflectors the ecoDemonstrator chief engineer. focused on producing a detailed noise also will be attached to the steering The previous six flight campaigns col- signature map for the 787-10. “We’ll mechanism and tow fitting at the front lectively flew 165 technologies since be putting about 1,000 microphones of the nose landing gear. The 787-10 will the program began in 2012, but only on the ground and a significant num- fly through this test phase with its land- four will be tested this time. ber of Kulites [pressure transducers] ing gear extended, the phased array of This contrasts with 53 technolo - on the aircraft,” says Al Creek, the ground microphones measuring air- gies tested on a 777-200 in the 2019 ecoDemonstrator aircraft platform craft sound in various flight conditions. campaign. “It’s smaller than in the manager. Kulites measure acoustic Live demonstrations of 4D trajectory- past due to the current COVID-19 pressures where conventional mi- based flight operations integrated situation,” says Lutters. In addition, crophones cannot operate due to high with FAA air traffic control (ATC) will some of the technologies due to be dynamic or static pressure or high be conducted during the cross-coun- evaluated on the 787-10 were brought temperature. Flights will be made try ferry flights to and from Glasgow. forward to the 777. “It’s a very short over the microphone array with dif- The outbound flight will be used to program,” she explains. ferent power and flap settings, flight verify system operability and the re- The decision to proceed in diffi- conditions and procedures to pro - turn flight will include a full demon- cult times for Boeing “sends a pretty duce the noise map. stration for FAA leadership. strong message in the current en- “This will allow NASA to get data to Intended to reduce fuel burn, noise vironment that we’re still investing validate its noise-prediction tools and and approach emissions by making in programs like ecoDemonstrator see if they can be improved for the more efficient use of airspace, the to evaluate advanced technologies design of future aircraft,” says Creek. 4D demo will build on data-connec- and drive sustainability into our sys- Boeing will get a close look at the noise tivity technologies tested in the 2019 tems,” says Doug Christensen, the the 787-10 generates. This could lead ecoDemonstrator. In that campaign, program technical lead. to reduced noise-indexed landing fees Boeing worked with Honeywell, In- The predictable tempo of the cam- for operators at noise-sensitive air- marsat and SITA to demonstrate an paigns has accelerated participation ports such as London Heathrow. internet protocol next-generation data from government agencies, research- Following completion of the NASA link for air navigation services and air- ers and industry, says Christensen. noise tests, Boeing plans to modify line operations control. As a result, Boeing is “fielding re - the landing gear temporarily with The goal this time is to demonstrate quests, probably on a weekly basis, an experimental set of passive noise- better use of time, the fourth dimen- from suppliers coming in and want- reduction fairings developed by Safran. sion, using the FAA’s growing Data ing to fly,” he notes. “The 787 is such a quiet airplane now Comm ground network. The agency In the upcoming flight campaign, that we’re noticing airframe noise, and gradually is deploying controller-pilot

LOGO: ARTHOBBIT/UNDEFINED UNDEFINED/WASTESOUL/MARYLOO-GETTY IMAGES LOGO: ARTHOBBIT/UNDEFINED UNDEFINED/WASTESOUL/MARYLOO-GETTY acoustic measurements will be un- we’ve identified that landing gear noise data-link communications throughout

24 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST SUSTAINABILITY

Low-noise fairings Boeing Teams With Etihad (far left) will be attached to the for 2020 ecoDemonstrator drag and side braces of the main > THE 787-10 IS SEVENTH TYPE TO BE USED AS AN ECODEMONSTRATOR landing gear. > THIS YEAR’S FLIGHT CAMPAIGN TESTS WILL FOCUS ON NOISE, AIR TRAFFIC EFFICIENCY AND SUSTAINABLE FUEL Passive low-noise flow deflectors Guy Norris Los Angeles will be added to the With the drive for dertaken in partnership with NASA nose leg steering efficient flight oper- to validate tools to predict commu- mechanism (top right) ations accelerating nity noise impacts. Together with and tow fitting as airlines seek to Safran Landing Systems, Boeing (lower left). recover from the expects to test flow deflectors, or SAFRAN CONCEPTS COVID-19 pandem- fairings, to assess the potential for ONE IN A SERIES ic, Boeing is plan- reducing landing-gear noise on the ning another round 787 and future aircraft. is one of the prime contributors during U.S. en route airspace. The system data link for a continuous-descent Beyond the 787-10, planning is un- of its ecoDemonstrator technology The 787-10 is nearing completion at approach and landing,” Creek says. allows controllers to data-link clear- approach and GPS-guided landing derway for the next ecoDemonstrator program. Boeing’s South Carolina facility, from Safran research indicates landing ances and instructions to pilots, in- using increased-glideslope required campaign, including resurrecting the The 2020 flight campaign will use a which it will be ferried to Glasgow, gear are responsible for 20-40% of cluding direct uploading of reroutes navigation performance. The aim is Boeing-owned 777-200 used in 2019 and yet-to-be-delivered 787-10 from Etihad Montana, for equipment installation perceived noise on approach, largely to the aircraft’s flight management to verify performance-based naviga- now in storage. “We are planning on a Airways, which signed a strategic sus- in mid-August. Flight tests are sched- due to turbulent flow around the leg system (FMS). tion and FMS autoload functions. much larger program next year,” says tainability partnership with Boeing in uled to last less than three weeks, strut and support braces. In a bid to The demonstration will include Finally, all of the 787-10 flights will Christensen. “We’ve identified our late 2019. Tests will focus on aircraft from August to early September. The reduce some of this turbulent inter- a digital departure clearance and use up to a 50% blend of sustainable technologies and an airline partner. noise, four-dimensional route optimi- aircraft then will be returned to South action, airfoil-shaped fairings will be cruise-climb, inter-center digital aviation fuel produced from agricul- We’re also working on 2022 and have a zation and synthetic fuel. Carolina for refurbishing and final out- attached to the main-gear drag and coordination, and use of an ATC tural waste by World Energy. list of technologies and a platform.” c “This will really have an emphasis fitting before delivery to Etihad. side braces. on sustainability,” says Rae Lutters, The initial days of testing will be Perforated and solid flow-deflectors the ecoDemonstrator chief engineer. focused on producing a detailed noise also will be attached to the steering The previous six flight campaigns col- signature map for the 787-10. “We’ll mechanism and tow fitting at the front lectively flew 165 technologies since be putting about 1,000 microphones of the nose landing gear. The 787-10 will the program began in 2012, but only on the ground and a significant num- fly through this test phase with its land- four will be tested this time. ber of Kulites [pressure transducers] ing gear extended, the phased array of This contrasts with 53 technolo - on the aircraft,” says Al Creek, the ground microphones measuring air- gies tested on a 777-200 in the 2019 ecoDemonstrator aircraft platform craft sound in various flight conditions. campaign. “It’s smaller than in the manager. Kulites measure acoustic Live demonstrations of 4D trajectory- past due to the current COVID-19 pressures where conventional mi- based flight operations integrated situation,” says Lutters. In addition, crophones cannot operate due to high with FAA air traffic control (ATC) will some of the technologies due to be dynamic or static pressure or high be conducted during the cross-coun- evaluated on the 787-10 were brought temperature. Flights will be made try ferry flights to and from Glasgow. forward to the 777. “It’s a very short over the microphone array with dif- The outbound flight will be used to program,” she explains. ferent power and flap settings, flight verify system operability and the re- The decision to proceed in diffi- conditions and procedures to pro - turn flight will include a full demon- cult times for Boeing “sends a pretty duce the noise map. stration for FAA leadership. strong message in the current en- “This will allow NASA to get data to Intended to reduce fuel burn, noise vironment that we’re still investing validate its noise-prediction tools and and approach emissions by making in programs like ecoDemonstrator see if they can be improved for the more efficient use of airspace, the to evaluate advanced technologies design of future aircraft,” says Creek. 4D demo will build on data-connec- and drive sustainability into our sys- Boeing will get a close look at the noise tivity technologies tested in the 2019 tems,” says Doug Christensen, the the 787-10 generates. This could lead ecoDemonstrator. In that campaign, program technical lead. to reduced noise-indexed landing fees Boeing worked with Honeywell, In- The predictable tempo of the cam- for operators at noise-sensitive air- marsat and SITA to demonstrate an paigns has accelerated participation ports such as London Heathrow. internet protocol next-generation data from government agencies, research- Following completion of the NASA link for air navigation services and air- ers and industry, says Christensen. noise tests, Boeing plans to modify line operations control. As a result, Boeing is “fielding re - the landing gear temporarily with The goal this time is to demonstrate quests, probably on a weekly basis, an experimental set of passive noise- better use of time, the fourth dimen- from suppliers coming in and want- reduction fairings developed by Safran. sion, using the FAA’s growing Data ing to fly,” he notes. “The 787 is such a quiet airplane now Comm ground network. The agency In the upcoming flight campaign, that we’re noticing airframe noise, and gradually is deploying controller-pilot

24 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 25 FLIGHT PATHS FORWARD | SUPPLY CHAIN The Days After

> THE SUPPLIER BASE ENTERED COVID-19 > PANDEMIC STARTS TWO OUTBREAK SUFFERING HICCUPS BUT YEARS OF DECLINING EXPECTING HISTORIC GROWTH INDUSTRIAL CAPACITY

C A P H 2,500 P 2,000 Commercial Jet Transports Regional Aircraft 1,500

1,000

Number of Aircraft Number of Aircraft 500

0 198919901991 19921993199419951996199719981999200020012002 2003200420052006 20072008 200920102011 20122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 2023202420252026 202720282029

Source: Naveo Michael Bruno Washington

uppliers across the Western aerospace and defense we’d get back to 2019 levels, that means for the next couple of years, no aircraft industrial base faced an existential crisis entering the are needed for growth,” Epstein said Ssecond half of 2020. during an Aviation Week webinar in June. “With 60% of new aircraft deliv- Source: Naveo Commercial air travel, the lifeblood softening against a predicted upswing eries traditionally going to meet indus- of industry, took a body blow in the first in a few years, and defense budgets try growth, now all that is needed is half of the year with the one-two punch were expected to remain flat with only the roughly 40% for replacement.” of the Boeing 737 MAX crisis and then inflationary improvements. “We’re looking at a couple of years’ the outbreak of COVID-19. Passenger “COVID-19 is that asteroid hit that worth of needing zero production,” air traffic could end 2020 at about 55% takes out the Sun,” says Warbird Cap- Pastushan said. of 2019’s total level, according to finan- ital CEO and Chief Investment Officer According to Naveo Managing Direc- cial analysts; in 2021, the question will Nicholas Pastushan. “It looks like a tor Richard Brown in a July 8 report, be whether a significant uptick can potential mass-extinction event as it 2020 new-aircraft production—likely occur without a vaccine against the comes to businesses in aviation.” around 1,090 airliners—will represent novel coronavirus. Pastushan’s career includes six years a return to 2006 levels. In production In turn, manufacturers do not ex- at GE Capital Aviation Services, where value, it will equate to roughly $71 bil- pect 2019 production levels to return he was director of industry research, lion worth of work: about $50 billion until 2023-25, with thousands of once- followed by more than a decade as chief off pre-MAX 2018 levels. planned large commercial aircraft investment officer for the erstwhile Timothy Kuder, senior commercial now effectively erased from bankable CIT transportation portfolio. “We used aerospace industry analyst at advisor plans for much of this decade. Experts to describe events like this as being, Frost & Sullivan, says the lost work see 30-50% excess capacity across well, you know, a nuclear war, end-of- through 2025 represents $475 billion aerospace and defense (A&D) man- the-world kind of thing: ‘I guess we’re in commercial aviation manufactur- ufacturing and a threat that around all dead anyway, so who cares?’ Well, ing, “which is just aircraft production 20% of lower-tier suppliers could exit we’re not dead, and this traffic disrup- we thought was going to be there but the industry in coming years. Recall tion event has happened,” he says. we’re never going to see again.” that before the COVID-19 pandemic, Both Pastushan and Bank of Amer- Both Epstein and Pastushan said monthly narrowbody production rates ica analyst Ronald Epstein say they production is not expected to halt at the two leading OEMs were headed expect demand for new-build aircraft completely because that would be a for the 60s, widebody rates were only to plummet. “If 2023 really is the year death knell for the supply chain and

26 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST FLIGHT PATHS FORWARD | SUPPLY CHAIN

industry altogether. But that will be tomers are going to have a tough time, it little comfort to a wide swath of in - is the small business suppliers that I’m dustry that faces the need to make most worried about,” says Raytheon structural changes as aircraft OEMs Technologies CEO Gregory Hayes. The Days After seek the lowest sustainable produc- “We see the airlines are badly hit, tion rates of their products. and we are badly hit,” says Airbus “There is going to be tremendous CEO Guillaume Faury. “And the next > THE SUPPLIER BASE ENTERED COVID-19 > PANDEMIC STARTS TWO pain throughout the supply chain,” wave is going to be the supply chain.” OUTBREAK SUFFERING HICCUPS BUT YEARS OF DECLINING echoes Jay Carmel, who leads the civil Who is more at risk? Many list OPTIMISTIC EXPECTING HISTORIC GROWTH INDUSTRIAL CAPACITY aerospace practice at advisor Avascent. aerostructures first, because the seg- > Consolidation focuses on distressed The Western A&D manufacturing ment was fragmented and suffered assets that existed before pandemic. sector, like many others, resembles higher fixed costs and lower pretax a pyramid structure. The top counts profit margins before the crisis. Inte- > Production rates across shipsets C A P H 8-10 OEMs and flagship national de- riors are another oft-cited sector at remain above the lowest fense prime contractors, and roughly risk. Maintenance, repair and over- sustain able levels with higher 2,500 a dozen major Tier 1 suppliers—with haul and parts suppliers also are P end-market demand. some of the latter increasingly rival- listed, especially for widebodies and 2,000 Commercial Jet Transports ing their OEM customers in business older airliners now likely to be head- > Demand returns to prepandemic activity. Then come a few score of ma- ed for earlier retirement. Boeing and levels by 2022. Regional Aircraft 1,500 jor Tier 2 providers and “big-small” its suppliers are seen as more vul- defense contractors—a shrinking nerable than Airbus and its ecosys- NEUTRAL layer over the recent decade—and tem, both because MAX production > Consolidation includes distressed 1,000 15,000 or more Tier-3-plus suppli- is practically null and because there assets as well as roll-up mergers ers, many of which feed into multiple are about 800 inventoried 737s to be yielding more resilient suppliers.

Number of Aircraft Number of Aircraft 500 industries but also include mom- delivered, in addition to customers’ and-pop shops. Commercial aviation own parked aircraft. > Production rates across shipsets are stabilized at lowest sustainable 0 business activity accounts for rough- “Under our baseline assumption of 198919901991 19921993199419951996199719981999200020012002 2003200420052006 20072008 200920102011 20122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 2023202420252026 202720282029 ly three-quarters of the whole sector, recovery, aftermarket sales will be 65- rate for all providers. and defense composes the rest. 75% of 2019 in 2022, and OEM sales > Prepandemic demand levels are Source: Naveo Fears of fallout increase proportion- will be back to 2018 levels into 2024,” achieved in 2023-25. Michael Bruno Washington ately as observers look further down UBS analysts said in a June 18 report. the pyramid. “A lot of those small- Still, not every vendor is suffer - PESSIMISTIC uppliers across the Western aerospace and defense we’d get back to 2019 levels, that means part or spare-part manufacturers are ing the same, and defense suppliers for the next couple of years, no aircraft smaller companies,” says Mike Blades, in general are relatively safer. The > Consolidation and market-exiting industrial base faced an existential crisis entering the are needed for growth,” Epstein said Frost vice president of A&D and secu- Pentagon has injected more than lead to up to 20% of suppliers in Ssecond half of 2020. during an Aviation Week webinar in rity for the Americas. “They are going $3 billion in accelerated payments lower tiers leaving A&D. June. “With 60% of new aircraft deliv- to be hit much harder by this than a into primes and their suppliers to Source: Naveo > Production rate planning is aban- Commercial air travel, the lifeblood softening against a predicted upswing eries traditionally going to meet indus- larger company that has a diversified bolster their financial positions since doned and the supply chain faces of industry, took a body blow in the first in a few years, and defense budgets try growth, now all that is needed is portfolio [and] can weather the storm COVID-19 hit the U.S. in force. fluctuating purchase orders. half of the year with the one-two punch were expected to remain flat with only the roughly 40% for replacement.” by selling more of what they have on Moreover, the defense-industrial of the Boeing 737 MAX crisis and then inflationary improvements. “We’re looking at a couple of years’ hand that is not aerospace-related or base already had consolidated substan- > End-market demand resets to a the outbreak of COVID-19. Passenger “COVID-19 is that asteroid hit that worth of needing zero production,” insulated from the decrease in demand. tially—to a degree that government new normal below prepandemic air traffic could end 2020 at about 55% takes out the Sun,” says Warbird Cap- Pastushan said. We are going to see issues in the supply officials were worried before the pan- levels with no recovery. of 2019’s total level, according to finan- ital CEO and Chief Investment Officer According to Naveo Managing Direc- chain and possibly companies going out demic. The commercial supply base, by cial analysts; in 2021, the question will Nicholas Pastushan. “It looks like a tor Richard Brown in a July 8 report, of business. The supply chain was not contrast, remains far more fragmented be whether a significant uptick can potential mass-extinction event as it 2020 new-aircraft production—likely in the best shape to begin with.” due to decades of OEMs outsourcing navigated the “challenging” seven-year occur without a vaccine against the comes to businesses in aviation.” around 1,090 airliners—will represent Indeed, several experts note lower- about two-thirds of their aircraft pro- period following the Budget Control novel coronavirus. Pastushan’s career includes six years a return to 2006 levels. In production tier providers already were strained gram spending to suppliers. Above all, Act of 2011, the law that brought se- In turn, manufacturers do not ex- at GE Capital Aviation Services, where value, it will equate to roughly $71 bil- going into the pandemic. “A decade of the commercial segment faced rising questration spending caps after a so- pect 2019 production levels to return he was director of industry research, lion worth of work: about $50 billion OEMs pressuring subtier manufactur- prospects from a then-historic backlog called supercommittee of lawmakers until 2023-25, with thousands of once- followed by more than a decade as chief off pre-MAX 2018 levels. ers to make investments and tool up for of aircraft orders, driving more inter- failed to find agreement on federal planned large commercial aircraft investment officer for the erstwhile Timothy Kuder, senior commercial production rate increases—coupled est from new players and investors. cuts. Subsequent years saw turbulent now effectively erased from bankable CIT transportation portfolio. “We used aerospace industry analyst at advisor with relentless cost cutting through “Consolidation within the lower tier business conditions for government plans for much of this decade. Experts to describe events like this as being, Frost & Sullivan, says the lost work Boeing’s Partnering for Success and of defense contractors over the past contractors, including government see 30-50% excess capacity across well, you know, a nuclear war, end-of- through 2025 represents $475 billion Airbus’ internal efficiency SCOPe/ decade has contributed to the sector’s shutdowns and hard-fought, last-min- aerospace and defense (A&D) man- the-world kind of thing: ‘I guess we’re in commercial aviation manufactur- SCOPe+ programs—has left the aero- resilience,” Moody’s Investors Service ute bipartisan budget deals, as well as ufacturing and a threat that around all dead anyway, so who cares?’ Well, ing, “which is just aircraft production space supply chain capital-starved,” said in June. “The average U.S. defense government buyers seeking low-price, 20% of lower-tier suppliers could exit we’re not dead, and this traffic disrup- we thought was going to be there but Alton advisors said in a June report. contractor that we rate is simply a larg- technically acceptable deals. the industry in coming years. Recall tion event has happened,” he says. we’re never going to see again.” CEOs atop the industry continued to er, better operated and more dynamic “Aerospace and defense companies’ that before the COVID-19 pandemic, Both Pastushan and Bank of Amer- Both Epstein and Pastushan said sound the alarm in the second quarter, company than it was 10 years ago.” production levels, billable service monthly narrowbody production rates ica analyst Ronald Epstein say they production is not expected to halt particularly about their supply chain. According to Moody’s, “most” of the hours, new business development and at the two leading OEMs were headed expect demand for new-build aircraft completely because that would be a “The real concern, if I think about every- defense contractors are led by man- collections have been only minimally for the 60s, widebody rates were only to plummet. “If 2023 really is the year death knell for the supply chain and body here, [is that] while the airline cus- agement teams that experienced and disrupted by the COVID-19 outbreak,”

26 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 27 FLIGHT PATHS FORWARD | SUPPLY CHAIN

D C S B U COVID-19

30% Share of evenue rom S Lockheed Martin 20 0-33% Ultra Electronics 10 33-67% Northrop Grumman 0 BAE -10 67-100% L3Harris Qinetiq Circle area represents Babcock -20 2019 total revenue General Dynamics Thales Saab -30 United Aircraft Corp.* Safran Rheinmetall -40 Dassault Leonardo -50 Meggitt Stock Price, May 2020 Airbus Textron Raytheon Technologies -60 Rolls-Royce

Year-Over-Year Change in Monthly Year-Over-Year -70 Boeing pvalue -80 0% 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Share of Revenue From Defense

*Share of revenue from defense estimated using 2017 aircraft delivery data and aircraft unit cost estimates Source: Roland Berger

said BruceSource: Herskovics, Roland Berger a Moody’s se- cial crisis proved companies should al trends will play out to redefine the nior analyst. “Government efforts to not just try to ride it out. “Companies industrial base: supplier consolida- keep facilities open and projects active that took swift and decisive action out- tion, regionalization of supply chains, have contributed to this stability, which performed those that ‘hunkered down’ redomiciling and/or government in- also reflects the sector’s maturation.” by 3-4 times,” they said. vestment in critical technology capac- Numerous consultants suggest Complicating the challenge, how- ity, digitization of business practices the A&D supplier base is nearing the ever, is parallel advice against draw- and services across A&D, OEM in- end of the first phase of a three-step ing sweeping conclusions. While sourcing and others. Resiliency, re- transition, and the initial deep crisis is widebody aircraft are having issues, gionalization and cost reduction will beginning to wane. In the first phase, for instance, it does not mean every be leading motivations. survival was likely as measured by twin-aisle type is suffering equally; Thus, more mergers and acquisi- liquidity, the cash and equivalents the Boeing 787 is expected to fare tions are expected as well as divest- available to keep operating. “The big- better. In narrowbodies, the larger, ments of so-called noncore business gest concern right now is how to en- longer-range A320 family is expected assets, and private equity investors sure a smooth landing,” says Manfred to perform better than MAXs for at are expected to play as much of a Hader, who co-heads Roland Berger’s least a few years. role in the future as they have to global A&D practice. “This is a much more surgical date. At the same time, governments As the supply base shifts into the approach in this downturn,” Rob - are seen playing a larger role in leg- second phase—the pandemic over- inson and Cole partner Jeff White acy industry affairs, too, from being hang—companies have to prepare for says. “Not everyone will be impacted direct stakeholders due to bailouts up to 24 more months of aftershocks to equally and hugely.” to having a larger say in setting pri- the industrial base and have multiple At the same time, several outside ad- orities. These range from requiring “what-if” plans ready. “They should visors to industry managers are certain “greener” airliners to deciding who consist of no-regret moves (e.g., capac- A&D has entered an inflection point can buy what vis-a-vis “trusted cap- ity rationalization), more aggressive akin to transformations after the oil ital” and antitrust authorities. actions triggered as specific scenarios crisis of the 1970s, the end of the Cold Furthermore, issues will emerge unfold and big strategic moves (e.g., War in the 1990s or after 9/11. A lead- from actions that already have oc- spin-offs) that need to be planned in ing determination is that total business curred. “Maintaining a healthy sup- advance so the company can move fast activity is expected to fall roughly 50% ply is one thing, but reforming the once it has a green light,” the Alton from peak to trough before a rebound whole thing after turning it off is report said. Companies are advised to takes root. This final phase will begin another challenge entirely,” UBS an- set up special internal teams dedicated concurrently with the second phase of alysts note. “Moreover, not only has to this side-planning, while other man- pandemic overhang and likely pick up the supply chain been turned off, in agers focus on daily operations. momentum into 2021. some parts it has been turned off, In this second phase, suppliers will “Cause does not matter, but our turned on and then turned back [off] be pressed to take aggressive action to premise is that industries tend to again. In some other areas, suppliers reshape their businesses, according to evolve at economic inflection points, were never turned off, which means presentations by KPMG consultants both upturns and downturns,” KPMG years of underproduction versus a in May, as lessons from prior aviation consultants say. new lower demand profile await them shocks such as 9/11 or the 2008 finan- In this third and final phase, sever- in 2021 to 2025.” c

28 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST FLIGHT PATHS FORWARD | SUPPLY CHAIN INTERVIEW

D C S B U COVID-19

30% MR. FIX-IT Share of evenue rom S Ultra Electronics Lockheed Martin 20 0-33% When he was appointed CEO of Boeing 10 Northrop Grumman 33-67% last December, David Calhoun already 0 BAE -10 67-100% L3Harris Qinetiq had his hands full with the Boeing 737 Circle area represents Babcock MAX grounding. Then the coronavirus -20 2019 total revenue General Dynamics Thales Saab -30 United Aircraft Corp.* crisis hit, decimating demand for air Safran Rheinmetall -40 Dassault Leonardo travel and new airplanes. Wearing a -50 Meggitt Stock Price, May 2020 Airbus Textron Raytheon Technologies mask and properly socially distanced, -60 Rolls-Royce Calhoun met at the company’s o ces

Year-Over-Year Change in Monthly Year-Over-Year -70 Boeing pvalue -80 in Arlington, Virginia, with AW&ST 0% 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Editor-in-Chief Joe Anselmo and Share of Revenue From Defense Senior Air Transport and Safety Editor *Share of revenue from defense estimated using 2017 aircraft delivery data and aircraft unit cost estimates Source: Roland Berger Sean Broderick. Senior Propulsion Editor Guy Norris joined the said BruceSource: Herskovics, Roland Berger a Moody’s se- cial crisis proved companies should al trends will play out to redefine the conversation by phone. nior analyst. “Government efforts to not just try to ride it out. “Companies industrial base: supplier consolida- keep facilities open and projects active that took swift and decisive action out- tion, regionalization of supply chains, have contributed to this stability, which performed those that ‘hunkered down’ redomiciling and/or government in- also reflects the sector’s maturation.” by 3-4 times,” they said. vestment in critical technology capac- “I will always favor the Numerous consultants suggest Complicating the challenge, how- ity, digitization of business practices most e cient eet over the A&D supplier base is nearing the ever, is parallel advice against draw- and services across A&D, OEM in- end of the first phase of a three-step ing sweeping conclusions. While sourcing and others. Resiliency, re- my desire to maintain transition, and the initial deep crisis is widebody aircraft are having issues, gionalization and cost reduction will older planes.” beginning to wane. In the first phase, for instance, it does not mean every be leading motivations. survival was likely as measured by twin-aisle type is suffering equally; Thus, more mergers and acquisi- liquidity, the cash and equivalents the Boeing 787 is expected to fare tions are expected as well as divest- OEN available to keep operating. “The big- better. In narrowbodies, the larger, ments of so-called noncore business gest concern right now is how to en- longer-range A320 family is expected assets, and private equity investors sure a smooth landing,” says Manfred to perform better than MAXs for at are expected to play as much of a AW&ST: A year ago, Boeing said it independent of program leaders and just went through a deep examina- Hader, who co-heads Roland Berger’s least a few years. role in the future as they have to would be rejiggering safety over- have a direct line to the board on tion with respect to certifi cation. global A&D practice. “This is a much more surgical date. At the same time, governments sight and engineering because of safety reporting. We’ve announced As the supply base shifts into the approach in this downturn,” Rob - are seen playing a larger role in leg- the MAX situation. Now that you’re all the reorganizations, and we’re not Are there lessons learned from the second phase—the pandemic over- inson and Cole partner Jeff White acy industry affairs, too, from being six months into the job, how far getting any pushback. Our program MAX situation that you’re able to hang—companies have to prepare for says. “Not everyone will be impacted direct stakeholders due to bailouts along are you in xing those issues? managers welcome it. apply? That pilot-control interface up to 24 more months of aftershocks to equally and hugely.” to having a larger say in setting pri- I think we’re making tremendous is real, and it should be studied the industrial base and have multiple At the same time, several outside ad- orities. These range from requiring progress. Those MAX moments [and What makes you con dent you’ve every day. It should be studied based “what-if” plans ready. “They should visors to industry managers are certain “greener” airliners to deciding who the loss of lives] were devastating. identi ed all the issues with on the complete variation of skills consist of no-regret moves (e.g., capac- A&D has entered an inflection point can buy what vis-a-vis “trusted cap- It was like an earthquake. I don’t want the MAX and won’t see a similar that are available to the aviation ity rationalization), more aggressive akin to transformations after the oil ital” and antitrust authorities. anybody at Boeing or in the world to situation on the 777X or anything market. We can never short that actions triggered as specific scenarios crisis of the 1970s, the end of the Cold Furthermore, issues will emerge forget that. We have more work to else that comes down the road? again. Every time we drop a spec unfold and big strategic moves (e.g., War in the 1990s or after 9/11. A lead- from actions that already have oc- do so those kinds of things never The alignment of our company around for a fl ight control system in an spin-offs) that need to be planned in ing determination is that total business curred. “Maintaining a healthy sup- happen again. There is more board the engineering function. That single airplane, we’ve got to understand advance so the company can move fast activity is expected to fall roughly 50% ply is one thing, but reforming the engagement around safety and function, with its eye on safety, will this man-machine interface. And we once it has a green light,” the Alton from peak to trough before a rebound whole thing after turning it off is implementation of a more compre- have the authority and the charter to have to understand it well, and it has report said. Companies are advised to takes root. This final phase will begin another challenge entirely,” UBS an- hensive safety management system get ahead of the issues as opposed to be contemporary. I don’t think set up special internal teams dedicated concurrently with the second phase of alysts note. “Moreover, not only has within the company to gather not to catching up to them. Our 737 we’ll ever miss that one again. to this side-planning, while other man- pandemic overhang and likely pick up the supply chain been turned off, in just discrete failures on airplanes customers have zero concerns on So much focus has been on “fi xing” agers focus on daily operations. momentum into 2021. some parts it has been turned off, but also squawks in the service confi dence. A bunch of them have the MAX, but there are bigger- picture In this second phase, suppliers will “Cause does not matter, but our turned on and then turned back [off] industry to highlight things we been fl ying it for a long time with no issues with human factors and be pressed to take aggressive action to premise is that industries tend to again. In some other areas, suppliers should be looking at in the company trouble, and a whole bunch of pilots understanding pilot populations and reshape their businesses, according to evolve at economic inflection points, were never turned off, which means and processing in real time. love the aircraft. Now we’ve got to di erent training. We know the pilot presentations by KPMG consultants both upturns and downturns,” KPMG years of underproduction versus a We’re also muscling up the make sure that consumers under- population has changed. We know in May, as lessons from prior aviation consultants say. new lower demand profile await them engineering arm of the company. stand this fl eet of airplanes has a long where we’re selling airplanes and shocks such as 9/11 or the 2008 finan- In this third and final phase, sever- in 2021 to 2025.” c It’s really [allowing] engineers to be history with a good safety record and how young the compliance systems

28 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 2 INTERVIEW

are in some of those markets. One want to fly in the most efficient way going to be some development with of Boeing’s initiatives is addressing they conceivably can. We’ll hunt for respect to the wing and weight. Our some of that, though we haven’t had the biggest market, and that does not ecoDemonstrator tests small incre- much of a chance to talk about it necessarily pit it against the A321. ments in environmental and efficiency because of all the questions about gains, and each little one will add MAX and COVID. You’ve got extra time now to to the list. But getting to 30% from develop your next commercial where we are today is a long way. The COVID-19 crisis reminds us of airplane. Does that open the door when you took the helm at GE to technology previously thought How do you feel about your current Aviation shortly before the Sept. 11, to be a bit ahead of its time, such commercial airplane portfolio? 2001, terrorist attacks. You steered as the transonic truss-based wing? I like it. I don’t feel desperate for that company through the reces- I think an airplane will be introduced anything. The 737 is rock solid. The sion that followed. This one is more before we get to that, or hydrogen MAX is going to be as safe as any severe and is going to take longer to and electric—all those things. That’s other 737, if not safer, because of all recover from. Having gone through the second generation, at least the things that have been incorporated 9/11 gives me faith and confidence. for this company, and I believe for into the certification process. And I don’t think anybody put forward as the industry. But I do think there the center of the market is not the much capital as [GE] did at the time, are a number of technologies that A321—it’s still the 737-8 in our world. and it paid off. When we’re through ultimately will get deployed. Again, [In widebodies,] I love our position on the COVID waves, when vaccines are it may have more to do with the the 787. The market’s going to slow widely distributed around the world way they’re designed and built as down for a while [because of the drop and people have begun to recover opposed to the design itself. in international travel], but people from the fear of the virus, we’ll be love the performance of that airplane. right back to where we were. Global The French government has linked I love the 777X. We’ve tried to trade will not stop, global economic its support package for Airbus to incorporate everything we can from interdependence will not end, and the introduction of a hydrogen- this new certification process into the the growing middle class in the world powered, carbon-neutral airliner by 777X certification. We’ll start slower, will want to travel. When you have 2035. Do you think that’s real, and no question, but I think we’re going faith in that, you can plan for the could it have an impact on Boeing’s to be in a pretty good place on that. transition period. In Boeing’s case it product development strategy? might be three years, or it might be I don’t think the time frame the Boeing had a deal to acquire 80% five. I believe we have the resources government suggests is reasonable. of Embraer’s commercial aircraft and can sustain the research It’s something longer than that. On business, which would have added programs. We’ve got a portfolio of the other hand, I’m all in favor, and the E2 to the lower end of your products to get us back and not just I think Boeing will be a player. I don’t portfolio. Why did you pull the plug survive but win. think we’ll ever allow ourselves to on the deal at the last minute? I play second fiddle on that, amongst made the decision as CEO. It was Is it fair to say the new midmarket other alternatives. more about the deal than anything. airplane (NMA) is dead? Our team My big hope in this COVID moment Deals that involve shares, govern- was out talking to plenty of people is that there’s going to be a serious ments and other things sometimes about it, but since we don’t have a [parking] of [older] airplanes that get so tightly negotiated that they point design for our next airplane, need to be taken out of the skies, and require that certain things are going I have to suggest that any particular they will steadily be replaced with to be a certain way when you push vision anyone has for it right now today’s technology, which is 20-30% the button. This deal fell apart does not exist. The design tools and more fuel-efficient and environmen- because what we thought we bought production tools were always the tally friendly. With all the growth, didn’t turn out to be exactly what we most important part of the next point nobody really set down large parts of got. There were a number of closing design, because we need to build that their fleets, but I think that day is on conditions that Embraer did not airplane for less money, more effi- us, and I don’t think that will be lost meet by the deadlines. It doesn’t ciently and to a higher level of quality to the political and environmental change my view that strategically than we’ve done in our lifetime. We’ll interests out there. I think they’re the two companies had compli- get whatever [efficiencies] we can going to put pressure on the industry mentary forces that would have garner out of the propulsion com- to take that step change with been good for the industry, but in munity, but those kind of increments today’s technology. this case the deal fell short. are not like they used to be. And so our differentiation at the airframe There’s talk of a need for a 30% Airbus has a broader narrowbody level has to be significant. I just think gain in fuel burn in the next-gen- product line, starting with the we got a little bit ahead of ourselves eration of narrowbodies. What is A220 (formerly C Series) and with the point design discussion. the most likely way to get there? going up to the A321neo. Boeing This is not about competing with the Is it hybrid-electric, hydrogen, was offered a really good deal to Airbus A321. This is portfolio versus the structural concepts? There is acquire the C Series before Airbus portfolio, and we’re going to find the not any one—it’s going to be some and turned it down. Was that a mis- spot where we think our customers version of hybrid in my view. There’s take? Absolutely not. I don’t think

30 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST INTERVIEW MARIAN LOCKHART/BOEING are in some of those markets. One want to fly in the most efficient way going to be some development with of Boeing’s initiatives is addressing they conceivably can. We’ll hunt for respect to the wing and weight. Our “The center of the market some of that, though we haven’t had the biggest market, and that does not ecoDemonstrator tests small incre- is not the A321—it’s still much of a chance to talk about it necessarily pit it against the A321. ments in environmental and efficiency because of all the questions about gains, and each little one will add the 737-8 in our world.” MAX and COVID. You’ve got extra time now to to the list. But getting to 30% from develop your next commercial where we are today is a long way. The COVID-19 crisis reminds us of airplane. Does that open the door when you took the helm at GE to technology previously thought How do you feel about your current Aviation shortly before the Sept. 11, to be a bit ahead of its time, such commercial airplane portfolio? 2001, terrorist attacks. You steered as the transonic truss-based wing? I like it. I don’t feel desperate for that company through the reces- I think an airplane will be introduced anything. The 737 is rock solid. The sion that followed. This one is more before we get to that, or hydrogen MAX is going to be as safe as any severe and is going to take longer to and electric—all those things. That’s other 737, if not safer, because of all recover from. Having gone through the second generation, at least the things that have been incorporated 9/11 gives me faith and confidence. for this company, and I believe for into the certification process. And I don’t think anybody put forward as the industry. But I do think there the center of the market is not the much capital as [GE] did at the time, are a number of technologies that A321—it’s still the 737-8 in our world. and it paid off. When we’re through ultimately will get deployed. Again, [In widebodies,] I love our position on the COVID waves, when vaccines are it may have more to do with the the 787. The market’s going to slow widely distributed around the world way they’re designed and built as down for a while [because of the drop and people have begun to recover opposed to the design itself. in international travel], but people from the fear of the virus, we’ll be love the performance of that airplane. right back to where we were. Global The French government has linked I love the 777X. We’ve tried to trade will not stop, global economic its support package for Airbus to incorporate everything we can from there was ever a good deal. I would one exception. It is not a surprise markets practically shut down, we interdependence will not end, and the introduction of a hydrogen- this new certification process into the question that premise. to anybody that the supply chain, lobbied the [Trump] administration the growing middle class in the world powered, carbon-neutral airliner by 777X certification. We’ll start slower, production ramp-up and growth of as hard as we could for support to will want to travel. When you have 2035. Do you think that’s real, and no question, but I think we’re going Boeing in recent years made a big the industry over the last 5-6 years the industry. We asked for big num- faith in that, you can plan for the could it have an impact on Boeing’s to be in a pretty good place on that. push into the aftermarket space. has brought all kinds of stresses. bers, and they responded beautifully transition period. In Boeing’s case it product development strategy? How does that balance whether You’ve been writing about it for quite with the CARES Act. I’ve been might be three years, or it might be I don’t think the time frame the Boeing had a deal to acquire 80% you want to incentivize customers some time. All the production lines surprised at how few have actually five. I believe we have the resources government suggests is reasonable. of Embraer’s commercial aircraft to park older airplanes? I want to and pretty much everything else had reached out to use it. and can sustain the research It’s something longer than that. On business, which would have added do what’s good for the airlines, and been stressed to move faster than With respect to the rates, we’re programs. We’ve got a portfolio of the other hand, I’m all in favor, and the E2 to the lower end of your I believe it’s good for them to park they would otherwise be able to. And pledging pure transparency. I want products to get us back and not just I think Boeing will be a player. I don’t portfolio. Why did you pull the plug inefficient parts of their fleets. That I think that takes a toll. I’m not say- them to know everything I know survive but win. think we’ll ever allow ourselves to on the deal at the last minute? I will definitely have an impact on my ing that’s the identical situation for every day. We have tried to keep our play second fiddle on that, amongst made the decision as CEO. It was services business. We will make ad- each of these programs you’re calling suppliers ahead of us with respect to Is it fair to say the new midmarket other alternatives. more about the deal than anything. justments to reduce that footprint to out, but that’s the environment we’ve rate to protect our stability when we airplane (NMA) is dead? Our team My big hope in this COVID moment Deals that involve shares, govern- accommodate what we think is going had for quite some time. Otherwise, do begin to recover. We have definitely was out talking to plenty of people is that there’s going to be a serious ments and other things sometimes to be a younger, fresher fleet. While these are unique problems. built that buffer into our system. about it, but since we don’t have a [parking] of [older] airplanes that get so tightly negotiated that they I believe strongly in the opportunity At the end of the day, we didn’t point design for our next airplane, need to be taken out of the skies, and require that certain things are going in the services market, I will always get done what we said we would, Boeing recently raised $25 billion I have to suggest that any particular they will steadily be replaced with to be a certain way when you push favor the most efficient fleet over my and we suffer in reputation, brand from the capital markets. Do you vision anyone has for it right now today’s technology, which is 20-30% the button. This deal fell apart desire to maintain older planes. That and confidence. So my Job 1 is to get anticipate having to raise any more does not exist. The design tools and more fuel-efficient and environmen- because what we thought we bought may sound like heresy, but it’s not. back onto a stable platform in each of money or take government aid in production tools were always the tally friendly. With all the growth, didn’t turn out to be exactly what we these cases. They can be made whole, the coming year, or are you set? most important part of the next point nobody really set down large parts of got. There were a number of closing What does that mean for Boeing’s and we’ll be proud of them. But we’re I certainly hope not. Our intention was design, because we need to build that their fleets, but I think that day is on conditions that Embraer did not goal to generate $50 billion annu- going to do it at a very slow, disci- to get us to the other side, not just airplane for less money, more effi- us, and I don’t think that will be lost meet by the deadlines. It doesn’t ally in aftermarket revenues? Let’s plined pace, and our confidence will through a year. That was a three-year ciently and to a higher level of quality to the political and environmental change my view that strategically just say that we have a big adjust- come back with that. deal for us. In the meantime, I would than we’ve done in our lifetime. We’ll interests out there. I think they’re the two companies had compli- ment to make. It’s still a big opportu- argue that the more troublesome get whatever [efficiencies] we can going to put pressure on the industry mentary forces that would have nity on the government side, which The MAX grounding and COVID-19 problem in our industry was supply garner out of the propulsion com- to take that step change with been good for the industry, but in is more than half of the services have forced you to make some constraints and the instability of munity, but those kind of increments today’s technology. this case the deal fell short. business for us. pretty brutal production cuts. What the supply chain. Without a virus, I are not like they used to be. And so steps are you taking to make sure don’t think that was going to get fixed our differentiation at the airframe There’s talk of a need for a 30% Airbus has a broader narrowbody Boeing has faced major challenges your key suppliers survive? Are anytime soon. With a virus, you have level has to be significant. I just think gain in fuel burn in the next-gen- product line, starting with the across the company—the MAX in you easing up on Partnering for an opportunity to reengineer lines and we got a little bit ahead of ourselves eration of narrowbodies. What is A220 (formerly C Series) and commercial, the KC-46 tanker in Success? Yes. I think Partnering for reengineer the supply chain and get with the point design discussion. the most likely way to get there? going up to the A321neo. Boeing defense and Commercial Crew in Success may have gotten misinter- ahead of the curve. I think both play- This is not about competing with the Is it hybrid-electric, hydrogen, was offered a really good deal to space. Are you detecting a system- preted over the course of the years. ers [Boeing and Airbus] are starting Airbus A321. This is portfolio versus the structural concepts? There is acquire the C Series before Airbus ic problem, or are these individual I’m going to pledge transparency and to use the word “stability” more often. portfolio, and we’re going to find the not any one—it’s going to be some and turned it down. Was that a mis- and coincidental problems? I think support to our supply chain. [When You can’t get to the next level unless spot where we think our customers version of hybrid in my view. There’s take? Absolutely not. I don’t think they’re unique to themselves, with the COVID crisis hit] and the credit you’re jumping off a stable platform. c

30 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 31 FLIGHT PATHS FORWARD | BOEING THE BRAVE NEW WORLD > BOEING FACES MULTIFACETED DRAMA > N ONEW PROGRAM LAUNCH EXPECTED FOR FIVE YEARS LIKELY 737 MAX COMEBACK > OR MORE COINCIDES WITH CRISIS PEAK

Hundreds of MAX orders have been removed from Boeing’s backlog during the model’s grounding.

OE ALKER Guy Norris Los Angeles and Sean Broderick and Michael Bruno Washington

year may seem like a long time in politics, but for grace better than the fate of its 737-7 development aircraft, 1E001. Two Boeing, two years in aerospace must be an eternity years ago, it was one of the stars of the as it begins the slow recovery from the unparalleled 2018 show, impressing crowds with its series of setbacks, accidents and downturns that agile fl ying display and quiet fl y-pasts. A Fast-forward to July 2020, and the have struck it since 2018. same aircraft is being used for recer- At the Farnborough Internation- tests and planning for production in- tifi cation fl ights aimed at ultimately al Airshow two years ago, before creases on the 767 and 787 . Ultimately, returning the MAX to service after an its world was upended by the first Boeing ended the 2018 air show with unprecedented 16-month grounding. of two fatal 737 MAX accidents in 673 orders and commitments—the So what now? With Boeing’s most October 2018, Boeing’s biggest chal- bulk of them for 737s, along with a popular product sidelined, produc- lenges concerned how to meet surg- total of more than 100 787s, 777s tion of widebodies slashed in re- ing demand for its new single-aisle and 747 freighters. The event also sponse to the market collapse trig- derivative family. At the time, the provided an occasion for Boeing and gered by the COVID-19 pandemic, the company furiously was studying Embraer to detail their merger plans. Embraer deal dead and its product the new midmarket airplane (NMA) But now, in what would be another development strategy in disarray, amid seemingly positive prospects Farnborough Airshow month in a nor- the company is retrenching. While for a 2019 launch. mal even-numbered year, how far away Boeing steadies the ship, it also is The company simultaneously was that old world is. Perhaps nothing leaning more heavily than ever on its gearing up for the start of 777X fl ight symbolizes the company’s fall from defense business, which contributes

3 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST FLIGHT PATHS FORWARD | BOEING

cial Aircraft President and CEO Stan year and then retain $9-10 billion in THE Deal to take a close look at the group’s 2021. UBS analysts forecast Boeing future product strategy. burning through $15 billion this year NEW In terms of its finances, Boeing and then generating $2 billion in 2021 BRAVE WORLD is entering uncharted territory and after costs of operations are paid. Jef- certainly is far from where stake - feries analysts expect $14.4 billion to > BOEING FACES MULTIFACETED DRAMA > N ONEW PROGRAM LAUNCH holders thought it would be at the be burned this year but see $11.7 billion EXPECTED FOR FIVE YEARS start of 2020. being generated in 2022. > LIKELY 737 MAX COMEBACK In March, Boeing stunned the fi- But there are hard choices. “Boe- OR MORE nancial world and Washington when ing won’t burn cash forever. A portion COINCIDES WITH CRISIS PEAK it asked for more than $60 billion in of the burn in cash flow today is with- federally backed assistance—most- in the control of Boeing to regulate,” OPTIMISTIC ly for itself but also for the roughly UBS analysts noted in their June re- 17,000 direct and indirect suppliers port. “If they chose to pull way back > Air travel rallies quickly and evenly that feed into the OEM and prime on production, they would burn less around the world (2019 levels by defense contractor’s supply chain. cash. But that could sacrifice the 2022), the Boeing 737 MAX returns By the end of March, its net debt was company’s future earnings potential to service in 2020, and Boeing roughly $23 billion ($39 billion gross and risk sacrificing wide swaths of begins to ramp up production before $16 billion in cash on hand). market share over the long term and across the board. At the end of April, Boeing secured do hard-to-reverse damage to the $25 billion in new funds via one of supply chain over what is likely the NEUTRAL the largest single corporate debt of- near-term demand shock.” ferings on record. That fundraising Not surprisingly, with Boeing’s key Demand recovery takes several > came on top of a nearly $14 billion position atop the U.S. A&D industrial years, and sluggish new-aircraft credit facility that Boeing drew down base as well as its role as one of the sales hamper most, if not all, of in mid-March as the COVID-19 out- largest defense prime contractors, Boeing’s product line. break spread around the world. the Trump administration has Many financial analysts see the marked the company as too import- PESSIMISTIC company ending 2020 $45-50 billion ant to fail. In mid-June, the Treasury in the red. By comparison, at the Department said it was holding off on > Demand headwinds are coupled with end of 2018, Boeing had $4 billion distributing most of a $17 billion fed- program-specific challenges, such of net debt and nearly $14 billion of eral fund for defense contractors pro- as lukewarm acceptance of the MAX, free cash flow, with expectations of vided under this spring’s Coronavirus problems with Boeing 777X certi- sequential growth over the following Aid, Relief, and Economic Security fication or a long-term widebody several years. (CARES) Act in case Boeing and Gen- Hundreds of MAX orders have been removed from orderbook slump. Calhoun asserts the Chicago-based eral Electric need the money later. As Boeing’s backlog during the model’s grounding. aerospace and defense (A&D) behe- of the May 1 deadline, only about 20 moth will make good on its debt pile, applications, from smaller compa- OE ALKER but he acknowledged it will take lon- nies, had been received for the na- more than 30% of the organization’s ger. “We have stress-tested the case tional security pool. Guy Norris Los Angeles and Sean Broderick and Michael Bruno Washington overall turnover. that we’re putting forward in many, There are other ways Washington In charge since only January 2020 many ways that are much more diffi- can help, too, including through the year may seem like a long time in politics, but for grace better than the fate of its 737-7 following the ouster of Dennis Muilen- cult than what we believe we’re going Federal Reserve’s Primary Market development aircraft, 1E001. Two burg, is President and CEO David to do,” he said April 29. “And we [will] Corporate Credit Facility and Export- Boeing, two years in aerospace must be an eternity years ago, it was one of the stars of the Calhoun (see page 29). He is facing get through it. Now at what rate we Import Bank credit guarantees. Boe- as it begins the slow recovery from the unparalleled 2018 show, impressing crowds with its what must look like an impossible pay it down is the real question. But ing has not ruled out any of this assis- series of setbacks, accidents and downturns that agile fl ying display and quiet fl y-pasts. task. Dealing with the fallout of the when we get to some form of stability tance publicly. A company statement A Fast-forward to July 2020, and the pandemic has come on top of what at these production rates, and I believe April 30 on the $25 billion debt place- have struck it since 2018. same aircraft is being used for recer- already was Boeing’s worst crisis, we will, we’ll be in good shape to begin ment said simply that the company did At the Farnborough Internation- tests and planning for production in- tifi cation fl ights aimed at ultimately the MAX accidents and the model’s returning money to our lenders.” “not plan to seek additional funding al Airshow two years ago, before creases on the 767 and 787 . Ultimately, returning the MAX to service after an subsequent global grounding. And the To maintain goodwill with inves- through the capital markets or the U.S. its world was upended by the first Boeing ended the 2018 air show with unprecedented 16-month grounding. MAX drama is not only about return- tors, Boeing canceled its planned $4.2 government options at this time.” of two fatal 737 MAX accidents in 673 orders and commitments—the So what now? With Boeing’s most ing the aircraft to service but about billion purchase of 80% of Embraer’s Still, doing so may spur new cause October 2018, Boeing’s biggest chal- bulk of them for 737s, along with a popular product sidelined, produc- analyzing the root causes of the mis- commercial business and is laying off for concern. “The markets are not lenges concerned how to meet surg- total of more than 100 787s, 777s tion of widebodies slashed in re- ery and what changes are needed to at least 10% of its workforce—both anticipating Boeing needing to ing demand for its new single-aisle and 747 freighters. The event also sponse to the market collapse trig- the company culture and processes to embarrassing turnabouts. And Boeing come back [for money] in the next derivative family. At the time, the provided an occasion for Boeing and gered by the COVID-19 pandemic, the eliminate them. All of that and more likely will have to take further actions 12 months,” Douglas Karson, a bond company furiously was studying Embraer to detail their merger plans. Embraer deal dead and its product has to happen at the same time. that could box it in for years. analyst at Bank of America, said in the new midmarket airplane (NMA) But now, in what would be another development strategy in disarray, The MAX was losing market share For now, analysts widely see Boeing June during an Aviation Week webi- amid seemingly positive prospects Farnborough Airshow month in a nor- the company is retrenching. While vis-a-vis the Airbus A320neo even be- burning a lot of money this year to sup- nar. “I think that would be unlikely and for a 2019 launch. mal even-numbered year, how far away Boeing steadies the ship, it also is fore the grounding, an untenable situ- port operations before making some probably met with some fear, because The company simultaneously was that old world is. Perhaps nothing leaning more heavily than ever on its ation at least in the longer run that has next year. Standard & Poor’s predicts if Boeing burns through the $25 billion gearing up for the start of 777X fl ight symbolizes the company’s fall from defense business, which contributes forced Calhoun and Boeing Commer- Boeing could bleed $19-20 billion this that it just got, plus the bank lines [of

3 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 33 FLIGHT PATHS FORWARD | BOEING

credit] that it has drawn, that would “It’s really [allowing] engineers to matching fleet sizes with demand, probably point to a deeper problem be independent of program leaders and the MAX’s orderbook illustrates in the aviation market.” and have a direct line to the board the ramifications. At the end of 2018, With an initial return to service for for safety reporting,” Boeing CEO or three months before the ground- the MAX in September now looking David Calhoun tells Aviation Week. ing, Boeing boasted a 737 backlog of increasingly realistic, the company’s “We’ve announced all the reorgani- 4,700—most of them MAXs. From focus remains fixed on efforts to begin zations, and we’re not getting any January 2019 through early July 2020, delivering the huge inventory of stored pushback. Our program managers it delivered 132 aircraft: MAXs hand- 737s while slowly restoring produc- are welcoming it.” ed over before deliveries stopped, the tion of new aircraft at its Renton, The MAX has gained no orders in last 737 Next Generation models and Washington, facility. Despite signs of more than a year, thanks to two fatal P-8s, Aviation Week Fleet Discovery progress on these fronts, Boeing is accidents in five months that led to a data show. But the 737 backlog shrank bracing for more headwinds. Even if global grounding in March 2019 and by 470 from MAX cancellations. certification is approved within the a delivery halt a month later. Boeing “Every single customer is trying next two months, the manufacturer is making progress in obtaining re- to jigger its [delivery] schedule,” Cal- knows it will be challenging for most turn-to-service approvals of chang- houn says. airlines to accept the grounded es to the MAX triggered by the ac- The changes likely have just begun. MAXs in significant numbers. Deliv- cidents and subsequent reviews by Jefferies analysts believe as many as eries are needed urgently to restore regulators, most of them focused on 600 additional MAXs will be removed Boeing’s cash flow. revamped flight-control system soft- from airline and lessor backlogs in Recertification means more than ware. Despite a shrinking backlog response to what is expected to be a bringing the 737 back to life. The and the program’s dismal operation- multiyear demand-recovery period. process will begin the company’s al start—mid-July marked 16 months The pace of retirements will influ- painstaking task of rebuilding cru- into the grounding, or only six fewer ence this. In the 737’s case, the aver- cial regulatory relationships with months than the aircraft’s time in age age of the 6,500-aircraft NG fleet the FAA, European Union Aviation revenue service—Boeing insists MAX is a young 10.1 years, a Naveo analy- Safety Agency and other such or - buyers still want the aircraft. sis of Aviation Week Fleet Discovery ganizations around the world. The “Our 737 customers have zero con- data shows. But about 1,440 of these, MAX accidents exposed fundamen- cerns on confidence,” Calhoun says. or 22%, have been in service for at tal issues with Boeing’s safety cul- “Zero.” Needless to day, the Boeing least 15 years, making them strong ture and tarnished the company’s CEO also has none: “I do have faith candidates for storage or retirement, engineering reputation, both areas in the technology of the 737.” Calhoun especially by operators with more ef- that current restructuring efforts also is bullish on the MAX’s long-term ficient MAXs on order. are designed to address. outlook. What concerns customers is In the near term, Boeing is respond-

Retooled Boeing Defense and Space Some of Boeing’s franchise victories also put it at risk for heavy losses. Bets on Business Change For example: The Air Force considered the KC-46 to be a low-risk de - velopment program based on mature > THE T-7A AND MQ-25 TYPIFY NEW APPROACH technology, so it awarded Boeing a > THE KC-46 STRUGGLES OFFER WARNING SIGN fixed-price development contract in 2011. Boeing has recorded more than Steve Trimble Washington $3.72 billion in reach-forward losses on the KC-46, and the company still s a fresh crop of franchise program to the backlog in 2022, when the must pay to redesign and install the grams are set to enter produc- Army selects the winner of the Future Remote Vision System across the A tion, Boeing Defense, Space and Long-Range Assault Aircraft (FLRAA) fleet over the next three years. Since Security (BDS) seems to be a model of contract. Not surprisingly, the BDS 2011, Boeing has received additional stability in a corporation beset by mul- backlog at the end of 2019 stood at fixed-price development contracts tiple extended crises roiling the com- $63.9 billion, a 4% improvement com- for NASA’s Commercial Crew, the mercial aircraft and services divisions. pared with the year before. Air Force’s T-7A and VC-25B, and the The MQ-25 unmanned aircraft sys- Boeing still cannot afford too many Navy’s MQ-25 programs. tem (UAS), T-7A trainer and MH-139 mistakes. The fate of several pro - Boeing’s role in the next wave of de- helicopter will each enter service by grams—including the partnership fense technology also is not clear. Al- the middle of the decade, joining the with Bell on the V-22, P-8A, F/A-18E/F though the company has been a global U.S. Air Force’s revived F-15EX order and CH-47—hinge on either new for- leader in hypersonic technology for pipeline for a decade or more poten- eign orders or congressional interven- decades, Boeing was overlooked by tially. As a partner to Sikorsky, Boeing tion to avoid a line shutdown within the Pentagon on a series of contracts hopes to add another franchise pro- the next two years. awarded since 2018 to develop several

34 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST FLIGHT PATHS FORWARD | BOEING credit] that it has drawn, that would “It’s really [allowing] engineers to matching fleet sizes with demand, ing with a slow now slipped to later in 2021 probably point to a deeper problem be independent of program leaders and the MAX’s orderbook illustrates production-rate following successive devel- in the aviation market.” and have a direct line to the board the ramifications. At the end of 2018, ramp-up. Top opment delays with the aircraft’s With an initial return to service for for safety reporting,” Boeing CEO or three months before the ground- 737 supplier Spirit Boeing-built composite wings and the MAX in September now looking David Calhoun tells Aviation Week. ing, Boeing boasted a 737 backlog of AeroSystems has been BOEING General Electric-developed GE9X increasingly realistic, the company’s “We’ve announced all the reorgani- 4,700—most of them MAXs. From told to deliver 72 shipsets in B P engines. focus remains fixed on efforts to begin zations, and we’re not getting any January 2019 through early July 2020, 2020. Production o cially restarted G The pace of flight-testing is, delivering the huge inventory of stored pushback. Our program managers it delivered 132 aircraft: MAXs hand- in June after several weeks of prepa- however, expected to increase 737s while slowly restoring produc- are welcoming it.” ed over before deliveries stopped, the ration, and new aircraft fuselages Backlog as of Dec. 31, 2018 substantially later this summer tion of new aircraft at its Renton, The MAX has gained no orders in last 737 Next Generation models and are rolling out. as two more aircraft join the pro- Washington, facility. Despite signs of more than a year, thanks to two fatal P-8s, Aviation Week Fleet Discovery Je eries projects MAX produc- Deliveries between Jan. 1, 2019, 1 gram, which began with the fi rst progress on these fronts, Boeing is accidents in five months that led to a data show. But the 737 backlog shrank tion reaching just five per month and June 30, 2020 flight of the initial development bracing for more headwinds. Even if global grounding in March 2019 and by 470 from MAX cancellations. by year-end, bumping up to 31 Backlog as of May 31, 2020 aircraft last January. A second certification is approved within the a delivery halt a month later. Boeing “Every single customer is trying per month by 2022—aligning with 1 engineering, manufacturing and next two months, the manufacturer is making progress in obtaining re- to jigger its [delivery] schedule,” Cal- Boeing’s latest estimates. When development 777-9, WH002, en- knows it will be challenging for most turn-to-service approvals of chang- houn says. the MAX was grounded, produc- S A F S tered the test e ort on April 30, airlines to accept the grounded es to the MAX triggered by the ac- The changes likely have just begun. tion was at 52 per month and headed while the third aircraft is expected MAXs in significant numbers. Deliv- cidents and subsequent reviews by Jefferies analysts believe as many as to 57. The pandemic’s ramifi cations taller main landing gear design. to join shortly. eries are needed urgently to restore regulators, most of them focused on 600 additional MAXs will be removed mean the 737 program may never see Configured to raise the body by a Despite the delays, though, the col- Boeing’s cash flow. revamped flight-control system soft- from airline and lessor backlogs in such levels again. further 9 in., the design combines lapse of the global long-haul passenger Recertification means more than ware. Despite a shrinking backlog response to what is expected to be a Recertification also will clear the a telescoping feature to shorten the market means none of the aircraft’s bringing the 737 back to life. The and the program’s dismal operation- multiyear demand-recovery period. way for Boeing to resume full-scale gear legs and a semi-levered lower leading customers such as Emirates process will begin the company’s al start—mid-July marked 16 months The pace of retirements will influ- development of the final MAX vari- element to move the aircraft takeoff or Lufthansa is in a hurry to accept the painstaking task of rebuilding cru- into the grounding, or only six fewer ence this. In the 737’s case, the aver- ant, the stretched 737-10, the first rotation point aft. 777-9. For the mid-term, Boeing hopes cial regulatory relationships with months than the aircraft’s time in age age of the 6,500-aircraft NG fleet flight of which was delayed by the At the other end of the size scale, the ramp-up of production in 2022-23 the FAA, European Union Aviation revenue service—Boeing insists MAX is a young 10.1 years, a Naveo analy- crisis. Launched in 2017, the 230-seat the test and certifi cation of Boeing’s will coincide with the beginning of the Safety Agency and other such or - buyers still want the aircraft. sis of Aviation Week Fleet Discovery aircraft originally was expected to fi rst 777X derivative, the 777-9, also long-range market recovery and that ganizations around the world. The “Our 737 customers have zero con- data shows. But about 1,440 of these, enter service in July but now like- has slowed due to disruption caused the aircraft’s twin-engine economics MAX accidents exposed fundamen- cerns on confidence,” Calhoun says. or 22%, have been in service for at ly will debut in late 2021, assuming by the pandemic plus a greater lev- will come into play as operators seek tal issues with Boeing’s safety cul- “Zero.” Needless to day, the Boeing least 15 years, making them strong flight tests go as planned. The test el of scrutiny from the FAA in the capacity in the wake of earlier Boeing ture and tarnished the company’s CEO also has none: “I do have faith candidates for storage or retirement, focus for the 143-ft.-long 737-10, wake of the MAX recertifi cation ef- 747-400 and 777-300ER and Airbus engineering reputation, both areas in the technology of the 737.” Calhoun especially by operators with more ef- stretched by 66 in. over the 737-9, fort. Originally targeted at service A380 retirements. “We’ll start slower, that current restructuring efforts also is bullish on the MAX’s long-term ficient MAXs on order. will be on flight characteristics and entry this year when launched in no question, but I think we’re going are designed to address. outlook. What concerns customers is In the near term, Boeing is respond- performance of the completely new 2013, the stretched 777’s debut has to be in a pretty good place on that,”

Retooled Boeing Defense and Space Some of Boeing’s franchise victo- new operational prototypes. Boeing has emerging requirements for such an Counting on the new process to ries also put it at risk for heavy losses. been the Air Force’s primary supplier aircraft in the UK and U.S. generate signifi cant savings compared Bets on Business Change For example: The Air Force consid- for intercontinental ballistic missiles As BDS looks to future programs, to traditional methods, BDS lever- ered the KC-46 to be a low-risk de - for nearly 60 years, but it chose not to the company’s recent successes point aged that approach in 2018 to win the velopment program based on mature bid on the Ground-Based Strategic De- to a new model: the T-7A and MQ-25 fi xed-price contracts for the T-7A and > THE T-7A AND MQ-25 TYPIFY NEW APPROACH technology, so it awarded Boeing a terrent contract to develop a successor rolled out of Boeing’s St. Louis facto- MQ-25 by signifi cantly underbidding > THE KC-46 STRUGGLES OFFER WARNING SIGN fixed-price development contract in to the LGM-30 Minuteman III. ry as the fi rst clean-sheet examples competitors. Lockheed Martin said it 2011. Boeing has recorded more than Several peers, including L3Harris, of a new Boeing design process. For submitted “aggressively” priced bids Steve Trimble Washington $3.72 billion in reach-forward losses Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grum- decades, aerospace companies have for both contracts, but Boeing’s o ers on the KC-46, and the company still man, have publicized their philosophy used di erent sets of digital models came in at about $5 billion less. Those s a fresh crop of franchise program to the backlog in 2022, when the must pay to redesign and install the on a distributed command-and-con- of new aircraft to help predict aero- victories came at a di erent time for grams are set to enter produc- Army selects the winner of the Future Remote Vision System across the trol architecture. Boeing executives dynamic performance and the manu- Boeing, however, just 2-3 months be- A tion, Boeing Defense, Space and Long-Range Assault Aircraft (FLRAA) fleet over the next three years. Since have said that the Phantom Works facturing processes. For the T-7A and fore the fi rst of two crashes that trig- Security (BDS) seems to be a model of contract. Not surprisingly, the BDS 2011, Boeing has received additional rapid prototyping division is working MQ-25, BDS expanded that approach gered the ongoing grounding of the stability in a corporation beset by mul- backlog at the end of 2019 stood at fixed-price development contracts on a concept called Phantom Fusion, by constructing a single model to 737 MAX 8. The awards also came 18 tiple extended crises roiling the com- $63.9 billion, a 4% improvement com- for NASA’s Commercial Crew, the but they have not described the con- simulate aerodynamics, manufactur- months before the global travel indus- mercial aircraft and services divisions. pared with the year before. Air Force’s T-7A and VC-25B, and the cept or any tests conducted so far. ing and sustainment at the level of a try nearly ground to a halt due to the The MQ-25 unmanned aircraft sys- Boeing still cannot afford too many Navy’s MQ-25 programs. Boeing’s approach to Next-Gen- line replaceable unit. COVID-19 pandemic. tem (UAS), T-7A trainer and MH-139 mistakes. The fate of several pro - Boeing’s role in the next wave of de- eration Air Dominance (NGAD) has “Rather than developing a cer- If BDS’ future as a defense prime helicopter will each enter service by grams—including the partnership fense technology also is not clear. Al- been more visible. The partnership tain product, we placed our bets on depends on leveraging the T-7A and the middle of the decade, joining the with Bell on the V-22, P-8A, F/A-18E/F though the company has been a global with the Australian government on changing the way we did business,” MQ-25 models to win major new fran- U.S. Air Force’s revived F-15EX order and CH-47—hinge on either new for- leader in hypersonic technology for the unmanned Airpower Teaming BDS CEO Leanne Caret told Avia- chise contracts, such as NGAD and pipeline for a decade or more poten- eign orders or congressional interven- decades, Boeing was overlooked by System gives Boeing a prototype of tion Week, adding, “And we have po- FLRAA, the company cannot afford tially. As a partner to Sikorsky, Boeing tion to avoid a line shutdown within the Pentagon on a series of contracts a low-cost and attritable UAS, which sitioned ourselves nicely” (AW&ST another a KC-46-style, billion-dollar hopes to add another franchise pro- the next two years. awarded since 2018 to develop several could be offered as a candidate for July 13-26, p. 60). imbroglio on fi xed-price contracts. c

34 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 3 FLIGHT PATHS FORWARD | BOEING

systems engineering and develop - BOEING Increased FAA scrutiny and pandemic-related ment (MBSE/MBD) design approach issues are slowing 777X certification. honed and developed for the NMA. MBSE/MBD centralizes all information about a system in a digital model that supports the entire life cycle of a program from design and build to maintenance and training. By enabling Boeing and potential partners to perform virtual system integration and test, MBSE formed a key part of efforts to help crack the NMA business case. It was successfully tested on other Boeing efforts ranging from the T-7A military trainer to the folding wingtip of the 777X and is considered a vital technology in its own right. Calhoun says while “a number of technologies” may be deployed on the next new airplane, Calhoun says as he prepares the com- While in retrospect, the compa- “the technologies may have more to pany for a long recovery phase. ny’s early-2020 decision not to pro - do with the way they’re designed and “When we’re through the COVID ceed with the NMA was a blessing in built as opposed to the design itself.” waves, vaccines are widely distribut- disguise, the path forward remains As for hydrogen power, and other ed around the world and people have uncertain, particularly in terms of longer-term sustainment strategies, begun to recover from the fear of the timing and technology. For instance, Calhoun is “bullish,” but believes the virus, we’ll be right back to where we although a Future Small Airplane ambitious 2035 entry-into-service were,” he says. “Global trade will not (FSA) seems like the likeliest bet for target set by the French govern- stop, global economic interdepen- the next big project, will the company ment as part of its recent €1.5 billion dence will not end, and the growing pursue an evolved conventional de- ($1.7 billion) research and develop- middle class in the world will still sign or perhaps take advantage of the ment support plan for a carbon-neu- want to travel.” COVID-19-caused delay to embrace tral commercial airliner may not be To get back to normal production more radical concepts? reasonable. “It’s something longer rates, “in Boeing’s case it might be three, If Boeing goes ahead with an all- than that,” he says. it might be five years,” Calhoun notes. new FSA around the mid-2020s, However, Boeing does not plan to While pledging “transparency would the entry-into-service window be left behind as Airbus pivots to and support for the supply chain of the early 2030s provide the com- hydrogen fuel, particularly if French that supports Boeing,” Calhoun also pany with sufficient time to consid- government support puts the Euro- points out that COVID-19 presents er even more advanced structures, pean aircraft maker on course to de- an opportunity not to be missed to systems and propulsion technology? velop a carbon-emissions advantage. fix issues that have plagued the in- Answers could come from ongoing “I think Boeing will be a player, and I dustry for years. work with NASA aimed at potential- don’t think we’ll ever allow ourselves “I would argue that the more trouble- ly flying an X-plane demonstrator to play second fiddle on that among some problem in our industry was the of the company’s transonic truss- other alternatives,” Calhoun says. supply constraints and the instability braced wing (TTBW) concept later Aside from nebulous reengining of the supply chain,” he says. “Without this decade. and rewinging studies for the 767— a virus, I don’t know if that was going Calhoun says, however, there will for an option to tackle the upper end to get fixed anytime soon. With a virus, likely be a nearer-term, conventional of the former NMA market space— you have an opportunity to reengineer product offering on the table before and potential longer-term reengin- lines and reengineer the supply chain anything too exotic is considered. “I ing evaluations for the 787 later in and get ahead of the curve.” think an airplane will be introduced the 2020s, Boeing’s product strate- Beyond the 737-10 and 777X and before we get to [things like TTBW] gy leaders therefore have much to in spite of the MAX losing market or hydrogen and electric, all those ponder. The company knows it has share at an accelerated pace, Boe - things,” the CEO predicts. “That’s effectively ceded the lower segment ing has hit the pause button on its the second generation, at least for of the NMA market to the Airbus product- development studies. Com- this company and I believe for the A321XLR and that once the MAX is pany insiders tell Aviation Week it is industry.” back in the air, key decisions must be likely to be five or six years before the While a raft of advances in aero - made to avoid potentially losing the company will commit to the launch of dynamics, structures, systems and future single-aisle sector to more sus- a next-generation single-aisle family, propulsion certainly will be con- tainable options from its European which is now the next logical focus for sidered for the next new product, competitor in the 2030s. c its efforts given the diminished long- the one guaranteed advance will be term prospects of the MAX. implementation of the model-based —With Jens Flottau in Frankfurt

36 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST FLIGHT PATHS FORWARD | BOEING COMMERCIAL AVIATION systems engineering and develop - Craic CR929 Development make the fi rst delivery in 2025—that BOEING Increased FAA scrutiny and pandemic-related ment (MBSE/MBD) design approach is, after eight years of development. issues are slowing 777X certification. honed and developed for the NMA. Extended as Partners Wrangle Since the Chinese company then was MBSE/MBD centralizes all informa- expecting to have the C919 ready for tion about a system in a digital model > “SOME DIFFICULTIES IN COOPERATION” HAVE ARISEN delivery after 13 years of work and that supports the entire life cycle of had taken that long with the ARJ21, a program from design and build to > SUPPLIER SELECTION WILL TAKE MORE THAN THREE YEARS industry met this forecast with great maintenance and training. skepticism. By enabling Boeing and potential Maxim Pyadushkin Moscow and Bradley Perrett Beijing Later in 2018, UAC President Yuri partners to perform virtual system Slyusar told Aviation Week the 2025 integration and test, MBSE formed a he joint Russia-China Craic met. Because of the delay in supplier target might be optimistic . In 2019, he key part of efforts to help crack the CR929 widebody airliner pro- selection, deliveries will not begin be- said Craic would begin deliveries in NMA business case. It was success- Tgram has slipped by two years, fore 2028-29, the CEO said. Comac did 2025-27—diplomatically accommodat- fully tested on other Boeing efforts and the Russians have fairly bluntly ex- not respond to a request for comment . ing his partner’s outlook while leaving ranging from the T-7A military train- plained why: disputes between them The program is supposed to be open what he must have thought was er to the folding wingtip of the 777X and their Chinese partners over shar- shared equally by the two countries, a more realistic date and what was and is considered a vital technology ing technologies and markets. The fi rst but the division of responsibilities has more likely his own. in its own right. Calhoun says while delivery is now due as late as 2029 ; the been the subject of protracted negoti- Craic’s headquarters are in Shang- “a number of technologies” may be delay is linked to supplier selection. ations. A day before Khakimov spoke, hai, the home of Comac. The parties deployed on the next new airplane, Reporting on progress to Russian Russian Industry and Trade Minister have agreed to set up the main en- Calhoun says as he prepares the com- While in retrospect, the compa- “the technologies may have more to senators on July 8, Irkut CEO Ravil Denis Manturov told senators that al- gineering center in Moscow, with a pany for a long recovery phase. ny’s early-2020 decision not to pro - do with the way they’re designed and Khakimov said supplier selection though cooperation with Comac had branch in Shanghai. “When we’re through the COVID ceed with the NMA was a blessing in built as opposed to the design itself.” would probably not be completed until waves, vaccines are widely distribut- disguise, the path forward remains As for hydrogen power, and other next year—about halfway through the ed around the world and people have uncertain, particularly in terms of longer-term sustainment strategies, original development schedule. begun to recover from the fear of the timing and technology. For instance, Calhoun is “bullish,” but believes the Craic is a consortium of China’s virus, we’ll be right back to where we although a Future Small Airplane ambitious 2035 entry-into-service were,” he says. “Global trade will not (FSA) seems like the likeliest bet for target set by the French govern- stop, global economic interdepen- the next big project, will the company ment as part of its recent €1.5 billion The rst version of the Russian- dence will not end, and the growing pursue an evolved conventional de- ($1.7 billion) research and develop- BE EE middle class in the world will still sign or perhaps take advantage of the ment support plan for a carbon-neu- Chinese aircraft is to be want to travel.” COVID-19-caused delay to embrace tral commercial airliner may not be the CR929-600. Craic CR929 Specifi cations To get back to normal production more radical concepts? reasonable. “It’s something longer CR929-500 CR929-600 CR929-700 rates, “in Boeing’s case it might be three, If Boeing goes ahead with an all- than that,” he says. Comac and the United Aircraft Corp. Length (m/ft.) 58.675 / 192.5 63.755 / 209.2 68.835 / 225.8 it might be five years,” Calhoun notes. new FSA around the mid-2020s, However, Boeing does not plan to (UAC), within which Irkut runs the Span (m/ft.) 63.86 / 209.5 63.86 / 209.5 63.86 / 209.5 While pledging “transparency would the entry-into-service window be left behind as Airbus pivots to Russian side of the program. Full- and support for the supply chain of the early 2030s provide the com- hydrogen fuel, particularly if French scale development began in May 2017 Three-Class Seating 258 280 320 that supports Boeing,” Calhoun also pany with sufficient time to consid- government support puts the Euro- with a target of beginning deliveries Maximum Takeoff Weight (metric tons) 245 245 245 points out that COVID-19 presents er even more advanced structures, pean aircraft maker on course to de- no later than 2027. Range (km/nm) 13,600 / 7,340 12,000 / 6,480 10,000 / 5,400 an opportunity not to be missed to systems and propulsion technology? velop a carbon-emissions advantage. The consortium began requesting S A fix issues that have plagued the in- Answers could come from ongoing “I think Boeing will be a player, and I proposals from suppliers in late 2017. not been without trouble, Russia was China and Russia agreed in 2014 to dustry for years. work with NASA aimed at potential- don’t think we’ll ever allow ourselves Most prominent among the prospec- still fi nancing the program. develop the aircraft because high-level “I would argue that the more trouble- ly flying an X-plane demonstrator to play second fiddle on that among tive supplier choices is the one for “The Chinese entered the program o cials of the two countries wanted some problem in our industry was the of the company’s transonic truss- other alternatives,” Calhoun says. propulsion: Both General Electric and with a main goal of getting technol- a joint program—but Comac would supply constraints and the instability braced wing (TTBW) concept later Aside from nebulous reengining Rolls-Royce have o ered engines. ogies while keeping the local market have preferred to develop its own of the supply chain,” he says. “Without this decade. and rewinging studies for the 767— Selecting suppliers has been de- for their own [widebody] aircraft,” widebody . a virus, I don’t know if that was going Calhoun says, however, there will for an option to tackle the upper end layed repeatedly, thus affecting the Manturov said, apparently meaning Manturov said Russia has an al- to get fixed anytime soon. With a virus, likely be a nearer-term, conventional of the former NMA market space— schedule for aircraft deliveries, the Comac wanted to sell CR929s that ternative for the CR929, too, because you have an opportunity to reengineer product offering on the table before and potential longer-term reengin- CEO said, adding the most recent it would build. “We are in constant UAC is in preliminary development of lines and reengineer the supply chain anything too exotic is considered. “I ing evaluations for the 787 later in objective had been to fi nish that task search for a compromise, as our goal a two-engine derivative of the Ilyush- and get ahead of the curve.” think an airplane will be introduced the 2020s, Boeing’s product strate- this year. is not to share the technologies but to in Il-96 widebody . This would be pow- Beyond the 737-10 and 777X and before we get to [things like TTBW] gy leaders therefore have much to “We planned to complete [selection] get a foreign market,” he said. ered by the new Aviadvigatel PD-35 in spite of the MAX losing market or hydrogen and electric, all those ponder. The company knows it has with work in 2020 and move to con- China has the most important turbofan. The four-engine Il-96 uses share at an accelerated pace, Boe - things,” the CEO predicts. “That’s effectively ceded the lower segment tracting with all the subcontractors market, but Russia has technology in that company’s PS-90A . ing has hit the pause button on its the second generation, at least for of the NMA market to the Airbus and suppliers,” he told the senators. composite wings and experience in The baseline CR929-600 is intend- product- development studies. Com- this company and I believe for the A321XLR and that once the MAX is “Unfortunately, we have some di cul- widebody jets that the Chinese can- ed to carry 280 passengers in a three- pany insiders tell Aviation Week it is industry.” back in the air, key decisions must be ties in cooperation with the Chinese not hope to develop on their own this class configuration and will have a likely to be five or six years before the While a raft of advances in aero - made to avoid potentially losing the partners, so this stage is likely to move decade, said Sash Tusa of London range of 12,000 km (6,480 nm). Longer company will commit to the launch of dynamics, structures, systems and future single-aisle sector to more sus- into 2021.” analysis fi rm Agency Partners. and shorter versions would have the a next-generation single-aisle family, propulsion certainly will be con- tainable options from its European The current stage, called Gate 3, The CR929 schedule has shifted be- same gross weight (see table). which is now the next logical focus for sidered for the next new product, competitor in the 2030s. c also includes final definition of the fore. In 2018, Comac said the program Last year, UAC’s Slyusar said the its efforts given the diminished long- the one guaranteed advance will be aircraft confi guration. Khakimov did goal was to begin building the first fi rst fl ight would be in 2023-25. No up- term prospects of the MAX. implementation of the model-based —With Jens Flottau in Frankfurt not say which difficulties had been prototype in 2021, fly it in 2023 and date is available for that objective. c

36 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 3 INTERVIEW ‘We Have To Be Super-Humble’

Guillaume Faury became CEO of Airbus Group in April 2019 after just over a year as president of the company’s commercial aircraft business. With only one year in the job behind him, the 52-year-old has to steer Airbus through the worst crisis commercial aviation has ever faced, cutting costs where possible while protecting substance where needed. Faury met with Aviation Week Executive Editor for Commercial Avia- tion Jens Flottau at Airbus headquarters in Toulouse. With air travel all but impossible throughout the spring, it was their first in-person meeting in several months.

AW&ST: You cut production by for domestic flights, and around 40% to respond to the long-distance travel should COVID-19 crisis. When do you have largely recovered by expect a recovery? We don’t think the middle of next year. This we’ll see 2019 delivery rates again is the kind of timeframe we before 2023 to 2025. We made a need on the traffic side for very early [production cut] in the us to resume 2019 deliveries beginning of April because we had to. between 2023 and 2025. There was a lot of guessing and assumptions, but it turned out we were Are you assuming a second not too wrong. We still will be making coronavirus wave in your minor adjustments, as in normal models? There will be small second our skills, competencies and know- times. We have growing clarity for the waves, but we are not assuming a how as much as possible so we can be short term—2020 and 2021. It’s more major second wave next winter as big ready to meet our customer demand difficult to assess when the recovery as 2020 in terms of impact on traffic. when the market recovers. will come. The single-aisle market will As long as there is no vaccine, there recover before the widebodies. will be ups and downs, small confine- You are still in the middle of ments and reopenings. deferral discussions with your So your initial guess was pretty customers. We are working with all accurate? For the short term, yes. You plan to eliminate 15,000 customers. There are as many differ- We still think that 40 narrowbodies positions within one year. To what ent situations as we have customers, per month is the right rate for 2020 extent is there a danger that Airbus and it changes almost every day. The and 2021. It might change a bit, but is losing substance and experience situation is extremely difficult. Any not significantly. I am not suggesting that it will need once the demand new agreement will be painful but I know where it will be in 2024. I returns? We cannot escape the de- has to be acceptable for everyone. don’t. We have models and are pre- velopments affecting the airlines and That is the balance we need to strike. paring to be able to ramp up again. the industry as a whole. This crisis is There was a point in time when It is likely that the recovery will see unprecedented, and its scale requires the customers really had difficulties massive demand, so the ramp-up will us to adapt quickly to the new mar- defining the way forward. They were have to be steep. I see that in 2022 or ket environment to secure the future grounded; some of them had no li- 2023, a bit later for widebodies. of our company. Going through this quidity for the coming months. They But we have to be super-humble. transition, we will work with our had to go through their own crisis The shape of the traffic recovery social partners in order to limit the management. The timing differed, itself is still to be seen. There should social impact of our COVID-19 adap- depending where on the globe they be a relatively stable recovery in tation plan. We will rely on the full set were based and when they were the summer and the second half of measures available while retaining impacted by COVID-19. Some now

38 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST INTERVIEW

not invest money now to restructure when Boeing was unreachable, that when we know that we have a setup we have to remain humble. We are ‘We Have To Be that works. It’s more complex than focusing on our customers and not our competitor’s, and that comes with really thinking about market share benefits that will be very important for the moment. Obviously, today’s in a more fragmented world. Being market share reflects the grounding Super-Humble’ very American in the U.S. in Mobile, of the MAX, but Boeing is working on Alabama, and being a strong partner getting it back into service, and when in China in Tianjin will have value. it is, the picture will change again. Guillaume Faury became CEO of Airbus Group in Airbus has learned over the years to manage complexity. It is one of our Are you concerned that Boeing April 2019 after just over a year as president of the strengths. We have to live with less might somehow find the money to company’s commercial aircraft business. With only one revenue in the short term, but in the launch a clean-sheet successor to long term aviation will come back. the MAX sooner than expected? year in the job behind him, the 52-year-old has to steer That question was on the table Airbus through the worst crisis commercial aviation Speaking of the short term, small before COVID-19, but the pandemic aircraft seem to be benefiting from is pushing it off the table. I don’t see has ever faced, cutting costs where possible while the lower traffic volumes. Do you anyone launching a new plane with protecting substance where needed. Faury met with think that there will be a behavioral this level of uncertainty on so many shift—with airlines no longer focus- fronts, in particular a competitor Aviation Week Executive Editor for Commercial Avia- ing on unit costs but on trip costs [focused on] returning the MAX to tion Jens Flottau at Airbus headquarters in Toulouse. and thus smaller aircraft? The service. It is for them to say what business model of airlines is mainly they intend to do, but I think their With air travel all but impossible throughout the spring, fixed costs and variable revenues. priority is somewhere else. it was their first in-person meeting in several months. When you are in a stable environment, you are more interested in How much will Airbus benefit from costs per seat-kilometer. When there the termination of Boeing’s deal AW&ST: You cut production by for domestic flights, and is risk, you have to minimize your to acquire a controlling share of around 40% to respond to the long-distance travel should exposure, therefore you focus on Embraer’s commercial aircraft COVID-19 crisis. When do you have largely recovered by cost per trip and smaller modules. I business? It depends on what hap- expect a recovery? We don’t think the middle of next year. This think that is what we will see for the pens. They will have to find a way for- we’ll see 2019 delivery rates again is the kind of timeframe we J.V. REYMONDON/AIRBUS next few years. Smaller planes on the ward. Their previous plan was to sort before 2023 to 2025. We made a need on the traffic side for same routes, point-to-point as much of mirror what we did with the A220, very early [production cut] in the us to resume 2019 deliveries as possible. Small modules with long and it made sense from my point of beginning of April because we had to. between 2023 and 2025. range are likely to be a winner, at view. Events have led to a different There was a lot of guessing and as- least for a certain period of time. The situation. This raises questions for sumptions, but it turned out we were Are you assuming a second A220 and the long-range versions Boeing probably to a bigger extent not too wrong. We still will be making coronavirus wave in your of the A321neo should really make a than for Embraer. minor adjustments, as in normal models? There will be small second our skills, competencies and know- have a defined battle plan and others lot of sense, along with the A350 for times. We have growing clarity for the waves, but we are not assuming a how as much as possible so we can be are still negotiating the situation. longer distances. The French and German govern- short term—2020 and 2021. It’s more major second wave next winter as big ready to meet our customer demand Sometimes we have intermediate ments released financial support difficult to assess when the recovery as 2020 in terms of impact on traffic. when the market recovers. agreements with them to gain more Airbus has cut the A330neo rate to packages for the industry that are will come. The single-aisle market will As long as there is no vaccine, there time. We are getting more visibility, two a month. Its biggest customer, tied to technology targets. Will recover before the widebodies. will be ups and downs, small confine- You are still in the middle of and everyone is betting on a certain Air Asia X, is facing difficulties, these force the industry to acceler- ments and reopenings. deferral discussions with your speed of traffic recovery. But we are and the in-service fleet is relative- ate innovation? We played a role in So your initial guess was pretty customers. We are working with all still negotiating with a lot of uncer- ly young. Is the program now in the discussions with the government. accurate? For the short term, yes. You plan to eliminate 15,000 customers. There are as many differ- tainties in front of us. question? No. The rates are lower, [The package] is designed to develop We still think that 40 narrowbodies positions within one year. To what ent situations as we have customers, but some of the production slots are the technologies to prepare for the per month is the right rate for 2020 extent is there a danger that Airbus and it changes almost every day. The EasyJet recently negotiated a very for military variants, which de-risks next generation. Obviously, the post- and 2021. It might change a bit, but is losing substance and experience situation is extremely difficult. Any precise agreement with you that the program. The A330neo is not COVID-19 world will be even more fo- not significantly. I am not suggesting that it will need once the demand new agreement will be painful but detailed the new delivery sequence. more impacted than others. It’s an cused on the environment. We’re not I know where it will be in 2024. I returns? We cannot escape the de- has to be acceptable for everyone. Is that the kind of blueprint deal aircraft with good economics. That being forced; it is an opportunity. It is don’t. We have models and are pre- velopments affecting the airlines and That is the balance we need to strike. that you are trying to achieve with we had to cut rates now doesn’t say not designed to launch programs and paring to be able to ramp up again. the industry as a whole. This crisis is There was a point in time when every customer? Yes, that is what anything about the medium and long therefore not related to your question It is likely that the recovery will see unprecedented, and its scale requires the customers really had difficulties we are trying to achieve with air- term. We’ll stick with that product, to about a new plane. It is designed to massive demand, so the ramp-up will us to adapt quickly to the new mar- defining the way forward. They were lines—new contractual agreements be very clear. prepare the launch of a new plane at have to be steep. I see that in 2022 or ket environment to secure the future grounded; some of them had no li- that give visibility to the customer a later stage with a package of tech- 2023, a bit later for widebodies. of our company. Going through this quidity for the coming months. They and to us. On top of COVID-19, Boeing is nologies that does not exist today and But we have to be super-humble. transition, we will work with our had to go through their own crisis also facing the problems with that we need to develop and mature. The shape of the traffic recovery social partners in order to limit the management. The timing differed, Given reduced production rates, the 737 MAX. Will that lead to a COVID-19 is in some respects slowing itself is still to be seen. There should social impact of our COVID-19 adap- depending where on the globe they is the current industrial footprint permanent shift of market share us down [in making] big investments be a relatively stable recovery in tation plan. We will rely on the full set were based and when they were with assembly lines in five different in Airbus’ favor? We have seen so for which you need certainty and vis- the summer and the second half of measures available while retaining impacted by COVID-19. Some now locations sustainable? We will many changes since the end of 2018, ibility. But it is an accelerator when it

38 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 39 INTERVIEW

comes to increasing your agility and two are not opposed. A hydrogen How hopeful are you that European flexibility to adapt to future trends. car is an electric car with the en- defense cooperation is going to sta- ergy stored in hydrogen instead of bilize your military business? Euro- So it seems the first target is a batteries. The difference is not the drone is going in the right direction and regional aircraft? Ah, people are powerplant, but in energy storage. paves the way for the [Future Combat trying to give different names to When we go to hydrogen in aviation, Aircraft System (FCAS)], which is what we are doing. We are focusing we have two different ways to use going from a German-French coop- on technologies designed for the it on board. One would be to burn eration to a German-French-Spanish next generation of planes. It has not hydrogen and the other to run on a project. These are real European de- been decided what will be the first fuel cell, which is like a car or train fense projects in which Airbus plays program. It will probably be at the powerplant on a plane, with many a big role. I think we have the DNA to low end of the market, but I can’t tell more constraints. make them successful. Europe feels the you where. need to prepare for the sovereignty of Which option do you prefer? We the future, which includes the air and But there is a timeline the French don’t know yet. They probably don’t space power to protect your territory government has defined? Ask have the same timeframe, complexity from the skies. I am very happy and them. I can tell you what we dis- or investment requirement. That’s optimistic that this is moving forward. cussed with them and what we think why we’re looking at different routes. What is happening [politically with is reasonable. It is the entry into We can accelerate [the process] by the U.S.] unfortunately accelerates the fragmentation of the world, leading to the need to protect ourselves—to AIRBUS ensure the security of Europe with European means and tools and systems. It makes a lot of sense for us to be in defense, space and helicopters. A year ago, I made a firm statement that we are an aerospace group that is not only about commercial aviation. This crisis proves that it is very important to have different pillars and maybe grow defense and space more than before.

Life in France is slowly returning to normal after the COVID-19 lockdown. How has your daily routine changed? We all went through the Pegasus is one of the few airlines continuing to take delivery of Airbus same experience, adapting week by narrowbodies, like this A321neo, during the crisis. week. What was particular to Airbus is that we are exposed to the rules of service of the first fully decarbonized looking at all of them at the same the many, many countries in which plane by 2035. It is really something time. There is more investment going we are operating. One of the many I believe in because it means launch into innovation now and not only in challenges we had to face when we of the program in 2027 or 2028. We aviation. There is cross-fertilization put together a crisis group to handle have to mature the technologies by with other means of transport. We the situation was getting access to 2025; then you have two years to are on the hydrogen council with all the different rules. We have a very prepare the launch, consult the sup- many other industries including cars, complex and synchronized supply pliers, define the general architecture shipping, energy—everybody is there. chain, and with countries introduc- and work the business case. Will ing lockdowns at different times and the aircraft cover the whole range Without COVID-19 and the govern- with different rules, it was super- of the narrowbody segment, from ment initiatives it triggered, would complex. We largely had to work the A319 to the A321XLR? Probably you have talked about entry into remotely. One of the big risks during not. Single-aisle is now a very broad service in 2035? We were already the lockdown was losing control of segment. Our competitor wanted to on the 2035 assumptions. I think I the production system. cover it with a MAX and the [new said a year ago that in order to reach midmarket airplane]. We would be our target to halve emissions by Were you mainly in Toulouse? I was wrong to try to think of the aircraft 2050, we needed entry into service stuck in Paris at the very beginning, of the future by looking at today’s around 2035 of planes that are then I was in Toulouse, and then structure of the market. significantly decarbonized. The accel- I started to commute. We had to eration is probably around the idea organize private aircraft so we could There seems to be a push toward that we are pursuing several paths bring the management team togeth- hydrogen technology rather than in parallel, which is not necessarily er. Now we are traveling again on electric flying. Yes. However, the what we had in mind six months ago. commercial airlines. c

40 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST INTERVIEW FLIGHT PATHS FORWARD | AIRBUS, EMBRAER, MITSUBISHI AIRBUS comes to increasing your agility and two are not opposed. A hydrogen How hopeful are you that European flexibility to adapt to future trends. car is an electric car with the en- defense cooperation is going to sta- ergy stored in hydrogen instead of bilize your military business? Euro- So it seems the first target is a batteries. The difference is not the drone is going in the right direction and

THE regional aircraft? Ah, people are powerplant, but in energy storage. paves the way for the [Future Combat BIG trying to give different names to When we go to hydrogen in aviation, Aircraft System (FCAS)], which is what we are doing. We are focusing we have two different ways to use going from a German-French coop- on technologies designed for the it on board. One would be to burn eration to a German-French-Spanish next generation of planes. It has not hydrogen and the other to run on a project. These are real European de- been decided what will be the first fuel cell, which is like a car or train fense projects in which Airbus plays program. It will probably be at the powerplant on a plane, with many a big role. I think we have the DNA to RESET low end of the market, but I can’t tell more constraints. make them successful. Europe feels the you where. need to prepare for the sovereignty of > AIRBUS’ PRODUCTION PLANNING INCLUDES Which option do you prefer? We the future, which includes the air and SUPPLIER AND EMPLOYEE CONSIDERATIONS But there is a timeline the French don’t know yet. They probably don’t space power to protect your territory government has defined? Ask have the same timeframe, complexity from the skies. I am very happy and them. I can tell you what we dis- or investment requirement. That’s optimistic that this is moving forward. > EMBRAER REVAMPS FOR POST-PANDEMIC cussed with them and what we think why we’re looking at different routes. What is happening [politically with PERIOD AFTER BOEING DEAL COLLAPSE is reasonable. It is the entry into We can accelerate [the process] by the U.S.] unfortunately accelerates the fragmentation of the world, leading to the need to protect ourselves—to ATR, DE HAVILLAND HOPE TO BENEFIT EARLY

AIRBUS > ensure the security of Europe with European means and tools and sys- Jens Flottau Frankfurt tems. It makes a lot of sense for us to be in defense, space and helicopters. A year ago, I made a firm statement f commercial aerospace industry production decisions were Airbus reduced A350 production to that we are an aerospace group that defined strictly by customer demand and no other consid- six from 9.5 aircraft per month. is not only about commercial aviation. erations, the best move manufacturers could make at this This crisis proves that it is very important to have different pillars and Istage of the COVID-19 pandemic would be simply to shut maybe grow defense and space more down temporarily and reopen when things get better. As the than before. most recent monthly delivery figures for Boeing and Airbus Life in France is slowly returning to show, hardly any customer is taking delivery of new aircraft normal after the COVID-19 lock- and probably none want to. The few exceptions are providing down. How has your daily routine a very limited stream of revenue to an industry on the brink. changed? We all went through the Pegasus is one of the few airlines continuing to take delivery of Airbus same experience, adapting week by narrowbodies, like this A321neo, during the crisis. week. What was particular to Airbus That OEMs still are producing E2 family was based on the assump- is that we are exposed to the rules of aircraft in spite of the overwhelming tion of significantly higher output OPTIMISTIC service of the first fully decarbonized looking at all of them at the same the many, many countries in which odds they are facing indicates the than for the E1, yet the company is plane by 2035. It is really something time. There is more investment going we are operating. One of the many complexities of their business and now dealing with the exact opposite > COVID-19 is successfully contained, I believe in because it means launch into innovation now and not only in challenges we had to face when we the many other factors they need to trend for an aircraft that was strug- leading to a sustained recovery of the program in 2027 or 2028. We aviation. There is cross-fertilization put together a crisis group to handle take into account. The bottom line is gling to gain traction in the market of air travel in the summer and have to mature the technologies by with other means of transport. We the situation was getting access to that stopping production is generally even before the pandemic closed off stronger aircraft deliveries in 2021. 2025; then you have two years to are on the hydrogen council with all the different rules. We have a very not a feasible option for many differ- the previous outlook. NEUTRAL prepare the launch, consult the sup- many other industries including cars, complex and synchronized supply ent reasons. That there will be structural change pliers, define the general architecture shipping, energy—everybody is there. chain, and with countries introduc- Therefore, the industry’s main for the industry at least in the short- > Air travel recovery remains volatile and work the business case. Will ing lockdowns at different times and players need to find the least, but and medium term is evidenced by until at least early 2021; production the aircraft cover the whole range Without COVID-19 and the govern- with different rules, it was super- still extraordinarily expensive, way to Mitsubishi’s decision to freeze flight- outpaces deliveries until the end of the narrowbody segment, from ment initiatives it triggered, would complex. We largely had to work muddle through what is likely to be a testing of the M90 and shelve work on of next year. the A319 to the A321XLR? Probably you have talked about entry into remotely. One of the big risks during dismal two years in which the worst the already redesigned M100. not. Single-aisle is now a very broad service in 2035? We were already the lockdown was losing control of combination of factors comes to play: There were three regional jet man- PESSIMISTIC segment. Our competitor wanted to on the 2035 assumptions. I think I the production system. ■ No demand for new aircraft, yet the ufacturers with realistic prospects > A second pandemic wave stalls air cover it with a MAX and the [new said a year ago that in order to reach Boeing 737 MAX is expected back in for global sales two years ago—Bom- travel again; further production midmarket airplane]. We would be our target to halve emissions by Were you mainly in Toulouse? I was service (and production) in the next bardier, Embraer and Mitsubishi. cuts are implemented with wrong to try to think of the aircraft 2050, we needed entry into service stuck in Paris at the very beginning, few months. Embraer is on its own for the foresee- recovery starting in 2022. of the future by looking at today’s around 2035 of planes that are then I was in Toulouse, and then ■ Airbus, until only a few months ago able future. Ironically, those aircraft structure of the market. significantly decarbonized. The accel- I started to commute. We had to pushing hard to maximize output, is that were struggling to find accep - eration is probably around the idea organize private aircraft so we could now forced to reverse course and slow tance outside and, to an extent, even around and blocking broader access There seems to be a push toward that we are pursuing several paths bring the management team togeth- down an industrial machine that was inside their home markets, such as to what would be attractive targets hydrogen technology rather than in parallel, which is not necessarily er. Now we are traveling again on stretched to its limits. the United Aircraft Corp. (UAC) Su- for Embraer. electric flying. Yes. However, the what we had in mind six months ago. commercial airlines. c ■ The business case for Embraer’s perjet and the Comac ARJ21, are still That factor will become more im-

40 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 41 FLIGHT PATHS FORWARD | AIRBUS, EMBRAER, MITSUBISHI

portant in the narrowbody market The manufacturer received no new sequently, in the factories. Given a once the Irkut MC-21 and Comac C919 orders in June; an order for one A330- 40% output reduction, 36,000 of the near service entry. 900 was canceled. Total firm net or- 90,000 positions in the Airbus com- Airbus made a decision to cut pro- ders for the year stand at 298—365 mercial aircraft business were at risk duction in April and sees no need for gross orders less 67 cancellations. mathematically. Measured in terms major revision (see page 38). The cut Airbus will be producing more of actual demand, it is probably a was a 33% reduction compared with aircraft than it delivers until the end significantly higher number. Yet Air- 2019 levels and around 40% when of 2021, according to Faury. By then, bus announced it will reduce employ- measured against an output increase airlines are expected to take delivery ment groupwide by only 15,000. That planned for 2021. Airbus was produc- of 40 narrowbodies per month again, is one-sixth of the commercial unit’s ing roughly 60 single-aisle aircraft but by then Airbus will have built up workforce and includes 900 positions per month in 2019 and planned to hit an inventory of completed yet unde- at its German aerostructures affiliate 63 in 2021 and then grow by about livered aircraft waiting to be flown in Premium Aerotec that were to be cut one additional monthly delivery every scheduled service later. independent of COVID-19 to deal with year. By 2025, Airbus could have been In some ways, although for com - that company’s specific troubles. building 67 or 68 A320neo-family pletely different reasons and at a Negotiations with unions are ongo- units per month. lower scale, the situation is similar ing, and Faury hopes to reach agree- There are multiple reasons Airbus to that of the Boeing 737 MAX with ments with all of them by the fall so positions can be eliminated by next summer. In Europe, restructurings A D 9 of this kind traditionally take years to 19- be completed, so the targeted speed shows the urgency of the situation. 9 One factor not to be ignored is politics. While the French and German governments, both Airbus sharehold- ers, officially stay out of running the 19 business, they have made it clear 1 publicly that they expect layoffs to be limited to an absolute minimum. Both have stepped up support for aerospace by providing billions of euros in research funds from which 1 11 1 mainly Airbus will benefit as it is A220 A320/A320neo A330/A330neo A350 A380 otal - designing the next generation of aircraft. The programs not only will Source: Airbus provide welcome financial support but also will be helpful in retaining selected rate 40. The main one is that hundreds of completed aircraft to engineers who would otherwise be

Source: Airbus it is the threshold below which man- be rolled out to customers, likely without work. The combination of agement believes the Airbus supply from this fall. The unwanted supply factors means Faury’s team has to chain could go from severe turbu- of MAXs is going to burden airline find ways to cut the targeted num- lence to destruction. Key suppliers, balance sheets in 2021 if they were ber of positions largely by voluntary stretched to their financial limits unable to defer or cancel the orders. measures: unpaid leave, early retire- already, would not be able to sur - At some point, Boeing will flood the ment and, to a large extent, reduc- vive lower rates. That in turn means market with the MAX backlog, and tions to part-time work. Airbus is producing a substantially Airbus will try to deliver a large num- The pandemic does not seem to be greater number of aircraft than de- ber of A320neo-family aircraft. stopping long-term research into a mand would justify. For now, Airbus also plans to build more sustainable aircraft, which Air- While Airbus saw a substantial eight widebodies per month: six bus expects to introduce into revenue recovery of deliveries in June com- A350s and two A330neos. It is taking service around 2035. The exact defini- pared with May, the level is still much significant financial risk in keeping tion of that aircraft in range and size below precrisis and current produc- rates at these levels, betting on the is going to redefine Airbus’ product tion rates. The manufacturer deliv- need to protect its ability to rebuild strategy even prior to its arrival. In ered 36 aircraft during the month, 31 capacity in the years to come. all likelihood, the aircraft available 15 of which were A320neo-family units. Keeping intact as much of the years from now will cover the lower The other five were one A220-300 to supply chain as possible is one main end of the narrowbody segment at Air Canada and four A350-900s: two reason for the relatively high level of best. The larger A321neo-size part of to Iberia and one each to SAS Scan- production; the other one is internal. the market, which also happens to be dinavian Airlines and Air France. Airbus has an interest in keeping as the fastest growing, is to be covered But there were just 24 deliveries in many people employed as it can, as- by a more conventional design. May, so June numbers represent a suming it will need them sooner or In the nearer term, the A321XLR 50% increase. later for engineering work and, sub- remains Airbus’ only substantial

42 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST FLIGHT PATHS FORWARD | AIRBUS, EMBRAER, MITSUBISHI portant in the narrowbody market The manufacturer received no new sequently, in the factories. Given a development program. With suppli- once the Irkut MC-21 and Comac C919 orders in June; an order for one A330- 40% output reduction, 36,000 of the ers in the process of producing the near service entry. 900 was canceled. Total firm net or- 90,000 positions in the Airbus com- first parts specific to the XLR, the Airbus made a decision to cut pro- ders for the year stand at 298—365 mercial aircraft business were at risk aircraft’s schedule has not changed. duction in April and sees no need for gross orders less 67 cancellations. mathematically. Measured in terms Its fi rst fl ight is planned in 2022 and major revision (see page 38). The cut Airbus will be producing more of actual demand, it is probably a fi rst delivery in 2023, in time for what was a 33% reduction compared with aircraft than it delivers until the end significantly higher number. Yet Air- the industry hopes will be a return to 2019 levels and around 40% when of 2021, according to Faury. By then, bus announced it will reduce employ- 2019 tra c levels. measured against an output increase airlines are expected to take delivery ment groupwide by only 15,000. That Airbus’ move to take over the C Se- planned for 2021. Airbus was produc- of 40 narrowbodies per month again, is one-sixth of the commercial unit’s ries program from Bombardier and ing roughly 60 single-aisle aircraft but by then Airbus will have built up workforce and includes 900 positions broaden its portfolio to include any Azul took delivery of its rst S AUAS per month in 2019 and planned to hit an inventory of completed yet unde- at its German aerostructures affiliate aircraft down to 100 seaters—right Embraer 195-E2 in September 2019 63 in 2021 and then grow by about livered aircraft waiting to be flown in Premium Aerotec that were to be cut into Embraer territory—prompted but deferred most of the order. one additional monthly delivery every scheduled service later. independent of COVID-19 to deal with discussions at Embraer about team- year. By 2025, Airbus could have been In some ways, although for com - that company’s specific troubles. ing up with a big partner for its com- building 67 or 68 A320neo-family pletely different reasons and at a Negotiations with unions are ongo- mercial aircraft division. units per month. lower scale, the situation is similar ing, and Faury hopes to reach agree- For two years following the prelim- had once agreed to pay for the entity existing offering for the niche, the There are multiple reasons Airbus to that of the Boeing 737 MAX with ments with all of them by the fall so inary agreement to hand over major- in the new environment? And why E175-E1, has a monopoly for the fore- positions can be eliminated by next ity control of Embraer Commercial would Embraer’s board accept any- seeable future. Mitsubishi is fi nalizing summer. In Europe, restructurings Aviation to Boeing, management thing well below that? the last deliveries of its recently ac- A D 9 of this kind traditionally take years to worked on disintegrating the Bra- Embraer therefore is aiming to required Bombardier CRJ program. At 19- be completed, so the targeted speed zilian aircraft manufacturer, moving integrate, to the extent possible, the the same, it has shelved fl ight-testing shows the urgency of the situation. employees into what was going to be commercial aircraft division into the of its own M90 and development of 9 One factor not to be ignored is pol- Boeing Brasil Commercial and others group. One item to be watched will the E175-E2 competitor M100. itics. While the French and German into what was left of Embraer. An en- be whether Meijer will try, as Slat- Embraer’s medium-term plans now governments, both Airbus sharehold- tirely separate corporate information tery did, to make decisions for the are also highly unlikely to include ers, officially stay out of running the technology system was built for the unit as independently from the group a new turboprop that Slattery had 19 business, they have made it clear new unit and, as it was about to go as possible or coordinate much more pushed the board to approve. That 1 publicly that they expect layoffs to live, employees were sent home for with Embraer CEO Francisco Gomes project was always tied to being able be limited to an absolute minimum. an extended company holiday over Neto. Early indications are, insiders to complete the Boeing deal because Both have stepped up support for five weeks to restart based on the say, that Neto will become a lot more of the investment necessary. Now, Em- aerospace by providing billions of involved with the commercial unit. braer is not only under intense pres- system. No aircraft were delivered euros in research funds from which during that time. A reintegrated, possibly more cen- sure to contain costs wherever possi- 1 11 1 mainly Airbus will benefit as it is That was in January 2020. Then tralized Embraer is facing a much- ble, but also is watching Europe invest A220 A320/A320neo A330/A330neo A350 A380 otal - designing the next generation of the pandemic began to spread glob- changed market. Unlike Airbus and billions of euros into research on new aircraft. The programs not only will ally, and on April 25, Boeing ter- the A220, it cannot offer joint deals propulsion technologies, in particular Source: Airbus provide welcome financial support minated the proposed partnership between its E2 family and a larger hydrogen, that could form the basis for but also will be helpful in retaining agreement. Embraer was sent back (Boeing) narrowbody. That will make a new generation of regional aircraft selected rate 40. The main one is that hundreds of completed aircraft to engineers who would otherwise be to square one. Its way forward will it much more difficult to compete emerging in 2030 or later.

Source: Airbus it is the threshold below which man- be rolled out to customers, likely without work. The combination of be turbulent, its prospects unclear. with the A220 and achieve what was Turboprop manufacturers ATR agement believes the Airbus supply from this fall. The unwanted supply factors means Faury’s team has to There are factors from which it will its earlier strategic target: to get into and de Havilland Canada are facing chain could go from severe turbu- of MAXs is going to burden airline find ways to cut the targeted num- benefit, but they may well be out- the mainline carrier segment. Instead, the same market headwinds as ev- lence to destruction. Key suppliers, balance sheets in 2021 if they were ber of positions largely by voluntary weighed by the new burdens. it looks tied to its traditional niche of eryone else. The Longview Aviation stretched to their financial limits unable to defer or cancel the orders. measures: unpaid leave, early retire- The Embraer reset is all-encom- o¢ ering large regional jets. unit had just taken over control of the already, would not be able to sur - At some point, Boeing will flood the ment and, to a large extent, reduc- passing. Just weeks after the Boeing Within that segment, a lot has Dash 8-400 program from Bombar- vive lower rates. That in turn means market with the MAX backlog, and tions to part-time work. deal collapsed, its main internal spon- changed. Demand for new aircraft is dier in 2019 and was forced to pause Airbus is producing a substantially Airbus will try to deliver a large num- The pandemic does not seem to be sor, Embraer Commercial Aviation down to essentially zero for now and production because of COVID-19 in greater number of aircraft than de- ber of A320neo-family aircraft. stopping long-term research into a President and CEO John Slattery left likely to stay there for some time just March. It announced a restart in mand would justify. For now, Airbus also plans to build more sustainable aircraft, which Air- to become CEO of GE Aviation. He as Embraer was planning to ramp up May, though it has not resumed “full- While Airbus saw a substantial eight widebodies per month: six bus expects to introduce into revenue was succeeded by former sales chief production of the E2 family and trying scale production.” recovery of deliveries in June com- A350s and two A330neos. It is taking service around 2035. The exact defini- Arjan Meijer. to recover the development cost for ATR will not disclose its current, pared with May, the level is still much significant financial risk in keeping tion of that aircraft in range and size In all likelihood, Embraer will have the latest generation of the E-Jets. lower production rate. below precrisis and current produc- rates at these levels, betting on the is going to redefine Airbus’ product to go it alone for the foreseeable fu- While Embraer has not communi- Faury told Aviation Week that Air- tion rates. The manufacturer deliv- need to protect its ability to rebuild strategy even prior to its arrival. In ture. Industry sources say China cated any decisions, it is widely ex- bus has no plans to change its posi- ered 36 aircraft during the month, 31 capacity in the years to come. all likelihood, the aircraft available 15 and Russia have been in touch to pected to shelve certifi cation testing tion in the joint venture with Leonar- of which were A320neo-family units. Keeping intact as much of the years from now will cover the lower discuss a possible investment into of the E175-E2 for as long as possible do. Both old rivals de Havilland and The other five were one A220-300 to supply chain as possible is one main end of the narrowbody segment at the company, but given geopolitics, to cut back on capital expenditures. ATR hope they will benefi t early from Air Canada and four A350-900s: two reason for the relatively high level of best. The larger A321neo-size part of the risks of any such tie-up would There are no orders for the small- a traffic recovery as airlines prefer to Iberia and one each to SAS Scan- production; the other one is internal. the market, which also happens to be far outweigh the benefi ts even if an est of the three E2 variants anyway. smaller, less expensive units to “test dinavian Airlines and Air France. Airbus has an interest in keeping as the fastest growing, is to be covered agreement on industrial and com- It does not comply with U.S. scope the water temperature,” as ATR CEO But there were just 24 deliveries in many people employed as it can, as- by a more conventional design. mercial terms could be reached. But clauses and in spite of the deep crisis, Stefano Bortoli puts it. c May, so June numbers represent a suming it will need them sooner or In the nearer term, the A321XLR who would come up with anything there is no indication that scope relief 50% increase. later for engineering work and, sub- remains Airbus’ only substantial near the more than $4 billion Boeing is nearing. Furthermore, Embraer’s —With Thierry Dubois in Lyon

42 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 4 SPACE

ESA Proceeds With Large-Scale By the end of 2021, ESA has been cleared to spend €540 million—“only Earth-Observation Program ESA money,” says Josef Aschbacher, ESA’s director of Earth-observation > AGENCY PLAYS KEY ROLE IN EU’S ENVIRONMENTAL ENDEAVOR programs. “Key design activities” may start now. > OPEN DATA TO HELP DIGITAL TWIN EARTH PROJECT The agreement that has just been reached allows ESA to go ahead with Thierry Dubois Lyon negotiating contracts for the 12 satellites in detail, Aschbacher says. s the European Space Agency Earth-observation spacecraft that will The first of the six new Copernicus and the EU firm up decisions precisely monitor climate change and missions, CO2M, is about anthro - Aon follow-on missions in the its causes and consequences as well pogenic carbon dioxide monitoring. Copernicus Earth-observation pro- as help agriculture. Six missions will It will carry a near-infrared and gram, European satellite manufac- each comprise two satellites. shortwave-infrared spectrometer to turers expect to be awarded a total Copernicus is an EU program, and measure atmospheric CO2 produced €2.55 billion ($2.9 billion) in contracts ESA runs its space segment. ESA and by human activity. OHB System, for deliveries in 2025-27. EU memberships overlap but are not headquartered in Germany, will lead the development with a

ESA contract valued at €445 million. “The payload we offered was maybe too complex,” says Philippe Pham, Airbus head of

Six new missions, essentially focusing on environmental monitoring, are being launched as part of the EU’s Copernicus program.

Earth observation, navigation and science. CO2M will distinguish anthropogenic sources and sinks from others, Aschbacher explains. Under the EC Green Deal, the EU is aiming to become carbon neutral by 2050. CO2M should launch The move means Copernicus, in identical, which complicates funding by 2025 for EU member states to be its current form, has been successful and decision processes. For instance, able to comply with the 2015 Paris enough for European Space Agency ESA uses the “fair geographical re- Agreement. Each signatory should (ESA) member states to fund its contin- turn” rule (geo return), a concept begin to report CO2 emissions and uation at greater-than-expected levels. also known as “global balance,” under absorption in the 2023-28 period. It also epitomizes the growing em- which the industry in each partner The Copernicus Hyperspectral Im- phasis on two key domains for the country should receive a share of the aging Mission (CHIME) will return de- European Commission (EC): environ- work that is proportional to the coun- tailed information for sustainable agri- mental friendliness and digitalization, try’s contribution. cultural and biodiversity management. which are seen as defining the future The overall package is cofunded by Thales Alenia Space France will lead of the 27-country union. For the aero- ESA member states and the EU. It CHIME’s development under a con- space industry, further orders from therefore relies on future funding from tract valued at €455 million. OHB and the public sector may be expected to the EU’s Multiannual Financial Frame- Leonardo are the main subcontractors. follow the same priorities. work. In addition, the various members The Copernicus Imaging Micro- Contracts have yet to be signed, will need to make a joint decision about wave Radiometer (CIMR) mission will but three winners can be named moving from predevelopment to full de- provide observations of sea-surface already: Airbus, OHB System and velopment. A so-called decision point is temperature and salinity and sea-ice Thales Alenia Space. They will build planned for the second half of next year. concentration. Thales Alenia Space

44 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST SPACE

ESA Proceeds With Large-Scale By the end of 2021, ESA has been Italy will lead CIMR’s development €300 million contract to lead Cristal’s In addition to being devised to cleared to spend €540 million—“only under a €495 million contract. development. help with the climate crisis, the new Earth-Observation Program ESA money,” says Josef Aschbacher, The L-band Synthetic Aperture The Copernicus Land Surface Tem- Copernicus missions are expected to ESA’s director of Earth-observation Radar (ROSE-L) mission will carry perature Monitoring (LSTM) mission play a particularly relevant role in the > AGENCY PLAYS KEY ROLE IN EU’S ENVIRONMENTAL ENDEAVOR programs. “Key design activities” may an L-band synthetic radar altimeter will carry a high-spatial-temporal- EC’s digital agenda. The plan is to make start now. that penetrates through vegetation. resolution thermal infrared sensor to European data available in the cloud > OPEN DATA TO HELP DIGITAL TWIN EARTH PROJECT The agreement that has just been It will support forest management provide observations of land-surface to European users, Aschbacher says. reached allows ESA to go ahead with and monitor subsidence—which is temperature for sustainable agricul- Copernicus data—currently 300 TB Thierry Dubois Lyon negotiating contracts for the 12 satel- linked to earthquakes and landslides, ture and drought prediction. Airbus per day—is free and open. “But Euro- lites in detail, Aschbacher says. for instance—and soil moisture. Defense and Space in Spain has a €375 pean users should get . . . tools such as s the European Space Agency Earth-observation spacecraft that will The first of the six new Copernicus Thales Alenia Space Italy will lead million contract to lead the develop- high-performance computing so they and the EU firm up decisions precisely monitor climate change and missions, CO2M, is about anthro - ROSE-L’s development under a €482 ment. “LSTM is key to secure our have a competitive advantage,” he adds. Aon follow-on missions in the its causes and consequences as well pogenic carbon dioxide monitoring. million contract. Airbus will provide position in dual infrared technology, Copernicus will contribute to the Copernicus Earth-observation pro- as help agriculture. Six missions will It will carry a near-infrared and the payload. in terms of performance and cost,” Digital Twin Earth project, aimed at gram, European satellite manufac- each comprise two satellites. shortwave-infrared spectrometer to Thales Alenia Space expects a total Pham says. simulating potential evolution sce- turers expect to be awarded a total Copernicus is an EU program, and measure atmospheric CO2 produced €1.8 billion in orders from the three For both Cristal and LSTM, Airbus narios for the planet. Last year, con- €2.55 billion ($2.9 billion) in contracts ESA runs its space segment. ESA and by human activity. OHB System, missions for which it was chosen as is using its Astrobus platform, but troversy emerged between French for deliveries in 2025-27. EU memberships overlap but are not headquartered in Germany, will lead the prime contractor and the two some components are being chosen President Emmanuel Macron and his the development with a where it will act as a payload suppli- with geo return in mind, so suppli- Brazilian counterpart, Jair Bolsonaro,

ESA contract valued at €445 er. CEO Herve Derrey anticipates con- ers may be different from those that about the Brazilian portion—almost million. “The payload we tract signings in the coming weeks. Airbus taps for export, he notes. two-thirds—of the Amazon rain for- offered was maybe too The Copernicus Polar Ice and Snow Each Copernicus mission starts est. Should the forest be seen as a complex,” says Philippe Topography Altimeter (Cristal) mis- with a “prototype flight model,” which common asset for humanity or purely Pham, Airbus head of sion will carry a multifrequency radar undergoes longer and more demand- as Brazilian territory? For a science- altimeter and microwave radiometer ing tests than the following “flight based answer, a full model of the Earth Six new missions, to measure and monitor sea-ice thick- model,” he explains. Both are intended may show the impact of a 10%, 20% essentially focusing ness and overlying snow depth. Airbus to fly. Their development takes place in or higher reduction of the forest’s sur- c on environmental Defense and Space in Germany has a staggered schedules, Pham says. face, Aschbacher emphasizes. monitoring, are being launched as part of the EU’s Copernicus program.

Earth observation, navigation and science. CO2M will distinguish anthropogenic sources VIRTUAL and sinks from others, Aschbacher explains. Under the EC Green September 22-24, 2020 Deal, the EU is aiming to become carbon neutral The Region’s Premier by 2050. CO2M should launch Event for Maintenance, The move means Copernicus, in identical, which complicates funding by 2025 for EU member states to be Co-located with its current form, has been successful and decision processes. For instance, able to comply with the 2015 Paris Repair and Overhaul enough for European Space Agency ESA uses the “fair geographical re- Agreement. Each signatory should (ESA) member states to fund its contin- turn” rule (geo return), a concept begin to report CO2 emissions and is Going Virtual. uation at greater-than-expected levels. also known as “global balance,” under absorption in the 2023-28 period. It also epitomizes the growing em- which the industry in each partner The Copernicus Hyperspectral Im- Source Suppliers, Make Connections, phasis on two key domains for the country should receive a share of the aging Mission (CHIME) will return de- Meet Customers, from Anywhere in the European Commission (EC): environ- work that is proportional to the coun- tailed information for sustainable agri- World, over Three Days! mental friendliness and digitalization, try’s contribution. cultural and biodiversity management. which are seen as defining the future The overall package is cofunded by Thales Alenia Space France will lead of the 27-country union. For the aero- ESA member states and the EU. It CHIME’s development under a con- Discover more at mroasia.aviationweek.com space industry, further orders from therefore relies on future funding from tract valued at €455 million. OHB and the public sector may be expected to the EU’s Multiannual Financial Frame- Leonardo are the main subcontractors. #MROAP | follow the same priorities. work. In addition, the various members The Copernicus Imaging Micro- Contracts have yet to be signed, will need to make a joint decision about wave Radiometer (CIMR) mission will but three winners can be named moving from predevelopment to full de- provide observations of sea-surface already: Airbus, OHB System and velopment. A so-called decision point is temperature and salinity and sea-ice Thales Alenia Space. They will build planned for the second half of next year. concentration. Thales Alenia Space

44 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 45 INTERVIEW EXECUTING THE PLAN L3Harris Technologies is celebrating its first anniversary as a combined company after predecessors L3 Technologies and Harris Corp. came together in the summer of 2019. The merger created a so-called “sixth prime” defense contractor that enjoyed growing civil aerospace work through pilot training, simulation, avionics, FAA support and NASA work. But the merger was envisioned long before COVID-19 upended the aerospace and defense marketplace. Like other companies, Melbourne, Florida-based L3Harris is adapting. Chairman and CEO Bill Brown (left) and Vice Chairman, Chief Operating Officer and President Chris Kubasik (right) talked with Senior Business Editor Michael Bruno about the past year and looking ahead.

AW&ST: You just completed the we’re starting to capture synergy. Can you still grow there? Kubasik: first year of a three-year plan to So we believe we have an oppor- There is a couple of billion dollars integrate L3Harris Technologies. tunity to gain share in a defense of opportunity on the international How is it going? Brown: Chris and market, in a global market. But front. We have a pretty big presence I couldn’t be prouder of the broader we also have really good execution in Australia, Canada and the UK. We leadership team and all the employ- on the cost side to allow earnings haven’t seen any budget pressures for ees for all that we’ve accomplished per share to grow and margins to 2020. Do we expect many for 2021? over the last year to make this merger expand, regardless of what happens That will be something we watch. successful. And it has been a success on the top line. I think that’s what Most of these countries fund defense in an environment that is truly un- investors are excited about—just as a percent of GDP, so if GDP drops, precedented in many ways. Strategi- that execution on the fundamentals. maybe there’s an impact there in the cally, if you remember a year ago, we If we hit $300 million next year and out years. But we continue to see a lot set out to leverage our broader scale we keep running it into that third of interest in the Pacific region. And, and complementary technologies to year—calendar 2022—it should be of course, the Mideast is somewhere create sort of a new agile, innovative better than we first expected. that both companies had worked in mission solutions prime that goes historically and continue to work. across all of the domains. I think we The merger was marketed in part have proven that out through a lot of about becoming a sixth prime Since the merger was announced in the revenue synergies we’ve already defense contractor with accom- October 2018, you have been busy started to capture in the big pipeline panying heft. Did it work? How are with divestitures. Are you interest- ahead of us operationally, and we’re you growing? Kubasik: We see a ed in more acquisitions, especially making really good progress. We’re lot of opportunities in the classified as prices may drop for some tar- also building a strong culture of oper- environment dealing with command gets due to COVID-19? Brown: It’s ational excellence within the company and control, with integrating capa- early to talk about it, frankly. We’re to sustain our performance beyond bilities from both legacy companies. busy; we’ve got a lot of stuff going on the integration period. We put in 41 proposals—neither just integrating the companies, stabi- one of us would have primed or put lizing it, taking costs out, improving Many financial analysts have these bids in had we not merged. systems, capturing revenue oppor- named L3Harris a favorite stock That gives you an idea of volume. tunities and dealing with the COVID pick. You have a $300 million A lot of these start out relatively pandemic. We believe we’re adding goal for cost takeout from the small, whether they’re with DARPA a lot of value by focusing on building merger, and you just accelerated or other agencies where you’re fundamentals, building a strong foun- that by a year to 2021. Do you downselected as one of three, dation upon which to grow over time, feel pressure to do even more? and then a year from now you get and [acquisitions] will play a role. It’s Brown: I think maybe what people another opportunity and keep going. not on the near-term horizon. We’ve are excited about is that we were We’re pretty pleased. We’ve had got our hands full just executing our underpenetrated internationally. eight awards so far. game plan as we see it today. So we have opportunities to grow there. We’re going after broader About 20% of annual revenue Your commercial aerospace busi- end-to-end mission solutions and comes from international sales. nesses took a hit from COVID-19

46 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST INTERVIEW L3HARRIS

company. Commercial aerospace, and I think the whole discussion is which is all the pilot training and going to be about the recovery. EXECUTING THE PLAN academy work plus avionics, is less Ultimately, I think people are going than 5% of the company. Roughly to get back on planes and fly, clearly. L3Harris Technologies is celebrating its first anniversary as a combined speaking, it’s about $500 million of We’ve found some ways to be a revenue this year—down 30-40%, little more efficient with Zoom and company after predecessors L3 Technologies and Harris Corp. came together about $300 million. We do see that Skype, and maybe there are fewer in the summer of 2019. The merger created a so-called “sixth prime” defense business under pressure, and we business trips. If everything gets see that also in the pilot training back to the same way we were pre- contractor that enjoyed growing civil aerospace work through pilot training, side. It’s very difficult to train new COVID-19, we will have missed an simulation, avionics, FAA support and NASA work. But the merger pilots when you can’t have them opportunity to reimagine the future come to your academies, or have of the workplace and productivity. was envisioned long before COVID-19 upended the aerospace airline pilots that aren’t flying. Brown: There are implications for and defense marketplace. Like other companies, Melbourne, They’re not going to be in the the overall supply base, on both the training systems. So that does slow aerospace and defense sides. Clearly Florida-based L3Harris is adapting. Chairman and CEO pretty dramatically. we need more resilience. This has a Bill Brown (left) and Vice Chairman, Chief Operating Officer great impact on some of the smallest Both of you are veteran leaders suppliers on which we’re leaning to and President Chris Kubasik (right) talked with Senior Business and have seen downturns before, survive. This is not a temporary sit- Editor Michael Bruno about the past year and looking ahead. but how does COVID-19 differ? uation where you advance cash and Kubasik: This is clearly one of the things get better in three months. more significant declines. You look at This is going to be a longer-term all the different events over history downturn, and we have to make sure AW&ST: You just completed the we’re starting to capture synergy. Can you still grow there? Kubasik: along with the rest of the market- that have caused commercial that those precious small suppliers first year of a three-year plan to So we believe we have an oppor- There is a couple of billion dollars place. How much of a setback is that aerospace to hit a bump, and most of who are very vulnerable can see integrate L3Harris Technologies. tunity to gain share in a defense of opportunity on the international to the business model? Brown: That those have bounced back relatively their way through this crisis. Larger How is it going? Brown: Chris and market, in a global market. But front. We have a pretty big presence business might be evolving in the quickly from events like 9/11 or companies can; the concern is really I couldn’t be prouder of the broader we also have really good execution in Australia, Canada and the UK. We future, but it’s not a big part of the SARS. This one is global in nature, the smallest ones. c leadership team and all the employ- on the cost side to allow earnings haven’t seen any budget pressures for ees for all that we’ve accomplished per share to grow and margins to 2020. Do we expect many for 2021? over the last year to make this merger expand, regardless of what happens That will be something we watch. successful. And it has been a success on the top line. I think that’s what Most of these countries fund defense in an environment that is truly un- investors are excited about—just as a percent of GDP, so if GDP drops, precedented in many ways. Strategi- that execution on the fundamentals. maybe there’s an impact there in the cally, if you remember a year ago, we If we hit $300 million next year and out years. But we continue to see a lot set out to leverage our broader scale we keep running it into that third of interest in the Pacific region. And, and complementary technologies to year—calendar 2022—it should be of course, the Mideast is somewhere create sort of a new agile, innovative better than we first expected. that both companies had worked in mission solutions prime that goes historically and continue to work. across all of the domains. I think we The merger was marketed in part Fleet Discovery Military have proven that out through a lot of about becoming a sixth prime Since the merger was announced in the revenue synergies we’ve already defense contractor with accom- October 2018, you have been busy started to capture in the big pipeline panying heft. Did it work? How are with divestitures. Are you interest- ahead of us operationally, and we’re you growing? Kubasik: We see a ed in more acquisitions, especially Discover Opportunity with Unparalleled making really good progress. We’re lot of opportunities in the classified as prices may drop for some tar- also building a strong culture of oper- environment dealing with command gets due to COVID-19? Brown: It’s Tracking of Global Military Fleets ational excellence within the company and control, with integrating capa- early to talk about it, frankly. We’re to sustain our performance beyond bilities from both legacy companies. busy; we’ve got a lot of stuff going on Aviation Week Network’s Fleet Discovery Military Edition simplifi es the integration period. We put in 41 proposals—neither just integrating the companies, stabi- tracking global military aircraft and engines — piloted and unpiloted, fi xed wing one of us would have primed or put lizing it, taking costs out, improving and rotary — so you can discover new opportunities to grow your business. Many financial analysts have these bids in had we not merged. systems, capturing revenue oppor- ● Featuring over 70,000 aircraft and 110,000 engines in service with named L3Harris a favorite stock That gives you an idea of volume. tunities and dealing with the COVID more than 400 military operators. pick. You have a $300 million A lot of these start out relatively pandemic. We believe we’re adding ● goal for cost takeout from the small, whether they’re with DARPA a lot of value by focusing on building Searchable and ﬁ lterable by aircraft, engine, category, mission, lift type, merger, and you just accelerated or other agencies where you’re fundamentals, building a strong foun- weight class and more. that by a year to 2021. Do you downselected as one of three, dation upon which to grow over time, See for yourself how Fleet Discovery Military can help you track aircraft and feel pressure to do even more? and then a year from now you get and [acquisitions] will play a role. It’s engines so you never miss a business opportunity. Brown: I think maybe what people another opportunity and keep going. not on the near-term horizon. We’ve are excited about is that we were We’re pretty pleased. We’ve had got our hands full just executing our underpenetrated internationally. eight awards so far. game plan as we see it today. To learn more, go to aviationweek.com/FDMilitary So we have opportunities to grow Or call: Anne McMahon +1 646 291 6353 | Thom Clayton +44 (0) 20 7017 6106 there. We’re going after broader About 20% of annual revenue Your commercial aerospace busi- end-to-end mission solutions and comes from international sales. nesses took a hit from COVID-19

46 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 47 DEFENSE

aircraft’s air-to-air competitiveness compared with the F-15C/D. The search for the NGAD replace- A ‘BIG IDEA’ ment for the F-22 continued but became more complicated. The early USAF DIGITAL CENTURY 15-YEAR SERVICE LIFE NGAD studies likely focused on po- > > tentially disruptive technologies for SERIES STUDY DUE PROJECTED FOR air warfare, building on the Air Force BY END OF JULY NEXT FIGHTER Research Laboratory’s investment in tailless, supersonic airframes with broadband stealth characteristics, Steve Trimble Washington along with fuel-saving adaptive propulsion and directed-energy weapons. n the two-day span of July 13-14, the U.S. Air Force signed By mid-2018, however, the Air an order for new Boeing F-15s for the first time in 19 years Force’s focus for NGAD expanded. Instead of exploring only disruptive and revealed the results of an internal analysis that points aerospace technologies, Air Force to adopting a dramatic change in acquisition strategy for leaders also decided to investigate I how NGAD could disrupt the indus- the next generation of fighter jets. trial model for designing, building and The Air Force already operates six affordably sustained until an NGAD sustaining a fighter. different types of fighters and attack replacement enters the fleet. Already In October 2019, the Air Force aircraft and is designing a new train- the Air Force is facing a bill to replace opened the Digital Century Series er—the Boeing T-7A—with a built-in canopy sill longerons on each F-15C/D, office within the Air Force’s Lifecycle capability to perform a light attack role. and maintenance checks also revealed Management Center. For nearly 10 But the combination of the Fair- a surprise requirement for an expen- months, that office has been crunch- child Republic A-10, Boeing F-15C/D sive wing replacement. ing the numbers on two basic options. and F-15E and Lockheed Martin F-16, Rather than spend $10 million for The first is a traditional acquisition ap- F-35A and F-22 still is not enough. new wings and longerons on each proach aided by new digital engineering tools featuring a downselect to a prime contractor and a single aircraft type. The second is a radical break from that approach: The Air Force is commissioning aircraft designs from

U.S. AIR FORCE PHOTOS multiple suppliers that would be produced in small batches and ideally be retired from service before the first heavy maintenance check. The Digital Century Series staff is about three weeks away from completing its analysis, but the results already appear conclusive, says Will Roper, Air Force assistant secretary for acquisition, technology and logistics. “The business case is coming together,” Roper told journalists on July 14. “I believe it’s going to be cheaper to procure airplanes this [alternative] way than it will be with the major production line.” If so, the NGAD aircraft—whether a The U.S. Air Force operates a depot for the F-35A at Hill AFB, Utah—F-35 pilots are singular type or plural—promise to be pictured being briefed there by a maintenance officer—but a pending internal anal- as revolutionary to the defense indus- ysis indicates the next fighter aircraft will not need a heavy maintenance cycle. try as to the art of air warfare. The Defense Department selected In 2016, the Air Force started devel- aging F-15C/D, the Air Force decided Lockheed in 2001, for example, to de- oping a concept under the Next-Gen- it was cheaper and faster to replace sign and develop three F-35 variants, eration Air Dominance (NGAD) the 220-aircraft fleet with at least 144 which took nearly 19 years to com- program for a new air superiority F-15EXs. Although based on the F-15E plete. Lockheed opened a production fighter that could replace the F-22 and fighter-bomber, the F-15EX features a line in 2007, with deliveries currently F-15C/D fleets by 2030. new, lighter wing and critical perfor- projected until 2046, according to the A year later, however, the Air Force mance upgrades funded by Qatar and latest Selected Acquisition Report on learned that the F-15C/D cannot be Saudi Arabia that restore much of the the F-35 program. Finally, Lockheed

48 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE aircraft’s air-to-air competitiveness compared with the F-15C/D. The search for the NGAD replace- A ‘BIG IDEA’ ment for the F-22 continued but became more complicated. The early USAF DIGITAL CENTURY 15-YEAR SERVICE LIFE NGAD studies likely focused on po- > > tentially disruptive technologies for SERIES STUDY DUE PROJECTED FOR air warfare, building on the Air Force BY END OF JULY NEXT FIGHTER Research Laboratory’s investment in tailless, supersonic airframes with broadband stealth characteristics, Steve Trimble Washington along with fuel-saving adaptive propulsion and directed-energy weapons. n the two-day span of July 13-14, the U.S. Air Force signed By mid-2018, however, the Air an order for new Boeing F-15s for the first time in 19 years Force’s focus for NGAD expanded. Instead of exploring only disruptive and revealed the results of an internal analysis that points aerospace technologies, Air Force to adopting a dramatic change in acquisition strategy for leaders also decided to investigate I how NGAD could disrupt the indus- the next generation of fighter jets. trial model for designing, building and The Air Force already operates six affordably sustained until an NGAD sustaining a fighter. different types of fighters and attack replacement enters the fleet. Already In October 2019, the Air Force aircraft and is designing a new train- the Air Force is facing a bill to replace opened the Digital Century Series er—the Boeing T-7A—with a built-in canopy sill longerons on each F-15C/D, office within the Air Force’s Lifecycle capability to perform a light attack role. and maintenance checks also revealed Management Center. For nearly 10 But the combination of the Fair- a surprise requirement for an expen- months, that office has been crunch- child Republic A-10, Boeing F-15C/D sive wing replacement. ing the numbers on two basic options. The first of two Boeing F-15EXs ordered by the Air Force on July 13 is already in final assembly. and F-15E and Lockheed Martin F-16, Rather than spend $10 million for The first is a traditional acquisition ap- F-35A and F-22 still is not enough. new wings and longerons on each proach aided by new digital engineer- owns the design rights, so for now, it during the sustainment phase. The by extension, Congress—must be ing tools featuring a downselect to a controls a monopoly on potentially Air Force’s analysis shows that sus- willing to spend more money up front prime contractor and a single aircraft seven or more decades of sustain- tainment costs for the current fleet to incentivize multiple companies to type. The second is a radical break ment costs. The Pentagon, however, rise significantly after an aircraft specialize in making a profit from from that approach: The Air Force is is trying to negotiate the transfer of reaches 15 years in service. At that designing aircraft rather than sus- commissioning aircraft designs from some design rights from Lockheed in point, sustainment costs leap 3-8% taining them.

U.S. AIR FORCE PHOTOS multiple suppliers that would be pro- exchange for a performance-based lo- annually, Roper says. The Digital Century Series strate- duced in small batches and ideally be gistics contract. “So if you can kill that part of the gy is also premised on the impact of a retired from service before the first If Roper’s vision for the NGAD pro- program life cycle, it gives you a lot new set of digital engineering tools pio- heavy maintenance check. gram is adopted, the acquisition strat- more flexibility on [the up-front] price neered by the automotive industry. The The Digital Century Series staff is egy for the combat aircraft that will point,” Roper says. “If you say, ‘I’m goal is to create a digital replica of a about three weeks away from com- follow the Air Force’s F-35A into de- not going to keep the airplane longer new aircraft design that can be used to pleting its analysis, but the results velopment could not be more different. than 15 years; I’m not going to have derive models to predict aerodynamic already appear conclusive, says Will “Right now, it appears to be trending a depot line that’s open to maintain performance, manufacturing tasks and Roper, Air Force assistant secretary that the Digital Century Series [model] it. I’m [also] not going to do full-scale sustainment costs down to the level of for acquisition, technology and logis- is slightly cheaper—maybe significantly fatigue testing and all of those differ- individual line-replaceable units. tics. “The business case is coming to- cheaper—than a traditional acquisition, ent things that add sustainment costs Boeing adopted such a model-based gether,” Roper told journalists on July even [if the latter is] leveraging digital that get bigger and bigger the longer systems engineering approach for the 14. “I believe it’s going to be cheaper engineering. If that is the case, being we keep the airplane. I’m also not do- Qatar-funded redesign of the wing to procure airplanes this [alternative] able to keep two or three competitors ing any modernizations . . . to keep and forward fuselage of the F-15E. way than it will be with the major pro- continually designing—where there’s systems relevant or to stay ahead of Although Boeing has not transferred duction line.” always a design opportunity, but only obsolescence.’ You kill that part of the design rights for the F-15EX to the If so, the NGAD aircraft—whether a one is going to get pulled into small-lot program [cost] because you’re going Air Force, company officials view the The U.S. Air Force operates a depot for the F-35A at Hill AFB, Utah—F-35 pilots are singular type or plural—promise to be production—keeping that running per- to buy a new airplane.” aircraft’s digital engineering process pictured being briefed there by a maintenance officer—but a pending internal anal- as revolutionary to the defense indus- petually sounds awesome,” Roper says. The catch in the Digital Century as an “enabler” of the Digital Century ysis indicates the next fighter aircraft will not need a heavy maintenance cycle. try as to the art of air warfare. “Compare that with picking one ven- Series model is the implied disruptive Series initiative. The Defense Department selected dor, and only one vendor, and hoping impact on the defense industry, which “Digital engineering is changing In 2016, the Air Force started devel- aging F-15C/D, the Air Force decided Lockheed in 2001, for example, to de- that 30 years later, you still have a com- Roper acknowledges. everything,” Roper says. “We can oping a concept under the Next-Gen- it was cheaper and faster to replace sign and develop three F-35 variants, petitive industry base that can build The defense contractors now “are build airplanes simpler with smaller eration Air Dominance (NGAD) the 220-aircraft fleet with at least 144 which took nearly 19 years to com- the next amazing aerial thing,” Roper losing money in design and then mak- numbers of people with simpler tools program for a new air superiority F-15EXs. Although based on the F-15E plete. Lockheed opened a production adds. “I believe this model can work for ing it back in later production and than we’ve been able to do since the fighter that could replace the F-22 and fighter-bomber, the F-15EX features a line in 2007, with deliveries currently satellites and for weapons as well.” mainly modernization and sustain- 1970s. The idea is that you could re- F-15C/D fleets by 2030. new, lighter wing and critical perfor- projected until 2046, according to the The key to closing the business ment, which is where the big dollars turn to a form of acquisition we have A year later, however, the Air Force mance upgrades funded by Qatar and latest Selected Acquisition Report on case for the Digital Century Series are,” Roper says. not had since the early Air Force, and learned that the F-15C/D cannot be Saudi Arabia that restore much of the the F-35 program. Finally, Lockheed approach is the ability to save costs That means the Air Force—and, that’s a big idea.” c

48 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 49 DEFENSE

Tempest Goes Trilateral had been contracted by BAE to provide advanced actua- tion capabilities. SAAB SPENDING £50 MILLION ON UK FCAS HUB Sweden’s Saab announced also on July 20 that it is invest- > ing £50 million ($58 million) into the creation of an FCAS > TECHNOLOGIES ARE BEING MATURED TO SUPPORT center in the UK. The facility will serve as a hub for the com- YEAR-END BUSINESS CASE SUBMISSION pany’s participation in the FCAS and represent Stockholm’s first tentative steps into the venture. Saab does not name Tony Osborne London the Tempest specifically, with CEO Micael Johansson hinting that Sweden’s involvement is focused more on the technol- inety percent of Britain’s front-line combat aircraft ogy rather than the future platform. “Saab’s FCAS strategy are crewed, but British Defense Secretary Ben ensures that the technology is in place to support a long- NWallace says he expects a “major reversal” of these term future air capability and also to support continuous proportions by 2040. upgrades of Gripen E for decades to come,” Johansson said. Wallace’s speech at the opening of a virtual Farnbor - While the international partnership model for the ough Airshow on July 20—a message reminiscent of the Tempest has yet to be finalized, British officials have -sug late Duncan Sandys’ 1957 defense white paper that declared gested that the partnerships could be agile and scalable. the manned fighter redundant and guided and ballistic mis- In other words, allowing nations to “partner in a way that siles to be the future of Britain’s defense—may hint at a rad- suits them,” Richard Berthon, the UK Defense Ministry’s ically altered Royal Air Force (RAF) with heavy fielding of Combat Air acquisition program director, previously told swarming UAVs and other additive capabilities such as “loy- Aviation Week (AW&ST July 13-26, p. 52). al wingmen” dominating fleets. But Wallace’s comments also Johannsson said nations looking to refresh their fleets with touched on the trajectory for the UK-led Tempest Future the current generation of fighters, like the Gripen or Typhoon, should not be concerned about the push to deliver the Tempest during the 2030s. “A strong joint partnership around a future combat air system will

TEAM TEMPEST also guarantee Gripen and Trilateral studies to Eurofighter access to new develop the Tempest technologies,” Johannsson are underway as said. Existing customers, year-end business he said, should see the case submission FCAS as a “seal of approv- deadlines loom. al as we safeguard continuous fighter development.” Until now, the work between the national partners had been on a bilateral basis. The aim was “to define our common objectives,” BAE Systems CEO Charles Woodburn says. But this work has now extended into trilateral studies that include Combat Air System (FCAS), which is targeted to begin to “assessing how we can start to realize the huge potential replace the UK’s fleet of Eurofighter Typhoons from 2035. for collaboration across our three nations,” Woodburn says. Air Chief Marshal Mike Wigston, Chief of the Air Staff, Although the talks are now trilateral in nature, the UK said at the RAF’s annual air power conference on July 15 says it is still keen to see more international partners “join that he intended any FCAS to be optionally manned. Sandys’ our flightpath to discovery,” Wallace adds. defense plan sent reverberations through the UK aerospace Industry is already beginning to think trilaterally, with industry, but the vision for the Tempest calls for a similar GKN Aerospace in Sweden confirming it will work with fundamental revolution. Rolls-Royce in the UK and Avio Aero in Italy on feasibility BAE Systems says its factory of the future will subsume studies for a future fighter jet engine. GKN states it was the need for heavy, fixed and long-lead tooling—halving contracted in the first quarter of 2020 by Sweden’s defense production time compared with previous programs. And materiel agency, FMV, to conduct a study in collaboration industry is looking to new players for cybersecurity tech- with Rolls-Royce. nology from the banking world and materials technology Few details have emerged on the 60 technology demon- from the automotive sector, companies from outside the stration programs currently being developed and matured typical defense industrial base. by Team Tempest in support of the UK Future Combat Air Two years since the announcement of Team Tempest— System Technology Initiative (FCAS TI). Michael Christie, the industry consortium of BAE Systems, Leonardo, BAE’s head of Future Combat Air Systems, says work on MBDA, Rolls-Royce and the British government’s Com- maturing the technologies ready to support the business bat Air Strategy that coalesced at the 2018 Farnborough case submission to the British government at the end of this Airshow—the group is growing for the first time, with the year has seen the partners “at least achieve or exceed” the inclusion of Bombardier UK, Collins Aerospace, GE UK, maturity targets set, doing so “at great pace” and providing GKN, Martin-Baker, Qinetiq and Thales UK. The additions “fundamental evidence to the business case.” to the team come in the form of a first wave of industrial “Every one of these [60] projects will deliver a UK, Euro- agreements, with BAE hinting that more industrial part- pean or world first,” says Cecil Buchanan, the RAF Rapid ners will follow. Of the new partners, Collins announced it Capability Office’s chief scientist. c

50 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE

Tempest Goes Trilateral had been contracted by BAE to provide advanced actua- Faster Pace Needed for fighters to join its fleet of 72 aircraft. Nevertheless, licensing tion capabilities. issues as a result of the German prohibition of arms sales to SAAB SPENDING £50 MILLION ON UK FCAS HUB Sweden’s Saab announced also on July 20 that it is invest- Eurofighter Enhancements Saudi Arabia and the halting of new UK export licenses for > ing £50 million ($58 million) into the creation of an FCAS defense equipment to the kingdom has challenged progress. > TECHNOLOGIES ARE BEING MATURED TO SUPPORT center in the UK. The facility will serve as a hub for the com- > EUROFIGHTER NATIONS MOVING TOWARD The British government announced in July that it would YEAR-END BUSINESS CASE SUBMISSION pany’s participation in the FCAS and represent Stockholm’s LONG-TERM EVOLUTION PLAN restart arms exports to Riyadh. first tentative steps into the venture. Saab does not name “We are not in a sales mode with Saudi Arabia,” Boardman Tony Osborne London the Tempest specifically, with CEO Micael Johansson hinting > SECOND SAUDI TYPHOON ORDER IS LIKELY says. “If you look at the Saudi Air Force and the decisions it that Sweden’s involvement is focused more on the technol- TORNADO REPLACEMENT has to make, it needs to replace its [Panavia] Tornadoes at inety percent of Britain’s front-line combat aircraft ogy rather than the future platform. “Saab’s FCAS strategy an appropriate time. are crewed, but British Defense Secretary Ben ensures that the technology is in place to support a long- Tony Osborne London “The aircraft is the centerpiece of the Royal Saudi Air NWallace says he expects a “major reversal” of these term future air capability and also to support continuous Force,” he suggests. “It’s been utilized well and heavily, so proportions by 2040. upgrades of Gripen E for decades to come,” Johansson said. he Eurofighter’s recent renaissance and future evolu- let’s not try to sell it. Let it sell itself.” Wallace’s speech at the opening of a virtual Farnbor - While the international partnership model for the tion plans are a positive step for Europe’s ambitions to While the future of the Eurofighter looks bright, less ough Airshow on July 20—a message reminiscent of the Tempest has yet to be finalized, British officials have -sug Tbuild future combat aircraft, but fast decision-making certain is the future of BAE’s highly successful Hawk jet late Duncan Sandys’ 1957 defense white paper that declared gested that the partnerships could be agile and scalable. by the partner nations is needed, says the managing director trainer.Although the type has been buoyed by orders from the manned fighter redundant and guided and ballistic mis- In other words, allowing nations to “partner in a way that of BAE Systems’ air business, Chris Boardman. the Middle East in recent years, including a batch being siles to be the future of Britain’s defense—may hint at a rad- suits them,” Richard Berthon, the UK Defense Ministry’s The European fighter, jointly developed by Germany, assembled in Saudi Arabia, orders look set to dry up once ically altered Royal Air Force (RAF) with heavy fielding of Combat Air acquisition program director, previously told Italy, Spain and the UK, is enjoying something of a renais- nine aircraft for Qatar are completed. swarming UAVs and other additive capabilities such as “loy- Aviation Week (AW&ST July 13-26, p. 52). sance—with orders from Kuwait and Qatar as well as the “We put a lot of effort into trying to get continuity,” Boardman al wingmen” dominating fleets. But Wallace’s comments also Johannsson said nations looking to refresh their fleets with potential of top-up buys from Germany and Spain that could touched on the trajectory for the UK-led Tempest Future the current generation of fighters, like the Gripen or Typhoon, push production of the fighter out to the mid-2020s and should not be concerned about the push to deliv- later. But finalizing how er the Tempest during the 2030s. “A strong joint the aircraft should evolve The end of Hawk production partnership around a future combat air system will is still the subject of exten- could be in sight as BAE

TEAM TEMPEST also guarantee Gripen and sive debate. Trilateral studies to completes batches of the Eurofighter access to new “The bit we are trying jet trainer for Qatar and develop the Tempest technologies,” Johannsson to get to a conclusion is the are underway as said. Existing customers, Long-Term Evolution [LTE] Saudi Arabia. Efforts to year-end business he said, should see the of Typhoon,” Boardman tells maintain continuity, such as case submission FCAS as a “seal of approv- Aviation Week. a recent campaign in Kuwait, deadlines loom. al as we safeguard contin- “The four nations are have not succeeded. uous fighter development.” having debates about the Until now, the work between the national part- requirements,” he says. “They will not all be the same . . . ners had been on a bilateral basis. The aim was but they need to be harmonized.” “to define our common objectives,” BAE Systems Approvals need to be granted by all four partner nations CEO Charles Woodburn says. But this work has before the LTE initiative, revealed at last year’s Paris Air now extended into trilateral studies that include Show, can move ahead. The LTE plan is essentially a midlife Combat Air System (FCAS), which is targeted to begin to “assessing how we can start to realize the huge potential update for the fighter, one that will bring it into the informa- ROYAL AIR FORCE replace the UK’s fleet of Eurofighter Typhoons from 2035. for collaboration across our three nations,” Woodburn says. tion age and serve as a steppingstone toward the European Air Chief Marshal Mike Wigston, Chief of the Air Staff, Although the talks are now trilateral in nature, the UK Future Combat Air System and part of the UK’s Tempest explains, noting recent efforts to sell new-build aircraft to said at the RAF’s annual air power conference on July 15 says it is still keen to see more international partners “join initiative and Combat Air Strategy. In the UK, Boardman Kuwait were unsuccessful. that he intended any FCAS to be optionally manned. Sandys’ our flightpath to discovery,” Wallace adds. says there is a “near-term focus” on concluding commit- “Restarting [production] lines is costly,” Boardman says. defense plan sent reverberations through the UK aerospace Industry is already beginning to think trilaterally, with ments for Radar 2, a derivative of the Euroradar Captor-E “There are lots of people in the world who are trying to sell industry, but the vision for the Tempest calls for a similar GKN Aerospace in Sweden confirming it will work with active, electronically scanned array (AESA) radar planned the training aircraft—having invested heavily in them—so fundamental revolution. Rolls-Royce in the UK and Avio Aero in Italy on feasibility for UK aircraft. Radar 2 will feature an electronic attack it is whether you can be competitive in that situation.” BAE Systems says its factory of the future will subsume studies for a future fighter jet engine. GKN states it was capability, but Boardman suggests that the decision-making Boardman does not rule out the possibility that a sizable the need for heavy, fixed and long-lead tooling—halving contracted in the first quarter of 2020 by Sweden’s defense process is being affected by the novel coronavirus pandem- order could enable Hawk production to resume, but he says production time compared with previous programs. And materiel agency, FMV, to conduct a study in collaboration ic. As a result, he is urging governments to make decisions it would be a challenge to be competitive. industry is looking to new players for cybersecurity tech- with Rolls-Royce. more expeditiously. “From an industrial point of view, we A future jet trainer is not out of the question: Some level nology from the banking world and materials technology Few details have emerged on the 60 technology demon- need to be quicker on that issue,” Boardman says. of live flying will still be needed by future fighter pilots, de- from the automotive sector, companies from outside the stration programs currently being developed and matured Boardman is encouraged, however, by Germany’s deci- spite advancements in synthetics. typical defense industrial base. by Team Tempest in support of the UK Future Combat Air sion to adopt the Mk. 1 AESA radar for Tranche 2 and 3 “Will there be training aircraft needed in the world going Two years since the announcement of Team Tempest— System Technology Initiative (FCAS TI). Michael Christie, models of the aircraft. But he notes that the radar programs forward?” Boardman asks rhetorically, noting that the U.S. the industry consortium of BAE Systems, Leonardo, BAE’s head of Future Combat Air Systems, says work on have to be “carefully managed,” as there are now essentially Air Force is pursuing the development of the T-X platform, MBDA, Rolls-Royce and the British government’s Com- maturing the technologies ready to support the business three different radars in the Eurofighter program. “I am and the U.S. Navy is beginning to look at a replacement for bat Air Strategy that coalesced at the 2018 Farnborough case submission to the British government at the end of this happy that the German nation has made a commitment,” the T-45 Goshawk, derived from BAE’s Hawk. “Certainly, Airshow—the group is growing for the first time, with the year has seen the partners “at least achieve or exceed” the he says. “We hope it lays the groundwork for more Euro- yes; but what level and what volume? That is the fundamen- inclusion of Bombardier UK, Collins Aerospace, GE UK, maturity targets set, doing so “at great pace” and providing fighters into the Luftwaffe.” tal question,” he adds. GKN, Martin-Baker, Qinetiq and Thales UK. The additions “fundamental evidence to the business case.” It could also bolster export campaigns. Despite what Boardman describes as some “hiccups” in to the team come in the form of a first wave of industrial “Every one of these [60] projects will deliver a UK, Euro- BAE remains hopeful of securing a follow-up Eurofighter component production for the F-35 because of the COVID-19 agreements, with BAE hinting that more industrial part- pean or world first,” says Cecil Buchanan, the RAF Rapid order from Saudi Arabia. Riyadh signed a memorandum crisis, the situation has now “stabilized,” and the company ners will follow. Of the new partners, Collins announced it Capability Office’s chief scientist. c of intent in March 2018 to purchase an additional 48 Euro- is working toward its 2020 operational plan. c

50 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 51 FLIGHT PATHS FORWARD | F-35 > Sales outlook p. 54 Propulsion upgrades p. 55 FUTURE SHOCKSHOCK > LENGTHY UPGRADE LIST TO TRANSFORM THE F-35’s ROLE

> SCHEDULE PRESSURE GROWS ON COMPUTER UPGRADE

> FIRST BLOCK 4 UPGRADES ARRIVE LATE AND FLAWED

Steve Trimble Washington

THIS IS THE VISION FOR THE LOCKHEED MARTIN F35 PROGRAM IN 10 YEARS: ■ A worldwide fl eet of more than 2,000 fi ghters is in service with a still-growing list of customers. Sales are spurred by a unit procurement price and cost per fl ight hour equal to or only slightly higher than a fourth-generation fi ghter. Yet the newly modernized Block 4 fl eet of F-35s boasts 25 times more computing power than the version of the aircraft op- to nine countries, with another three countries signed up erating today, enabling the software-based onboard fusion for still more. The unit fl yaway cost of an F-35A will fall to engine to mine data from a far more advanced set of active $77.9 million for aircraft delivered in 2022 as part of the and passive sensors. 14th lot of yearly production. ■ As the situational awareness in cockpit expands, the pi- In plotting the program’s next decade of development, a lots have a variety of new weapon options available: the similar narrative of early struggles is becoming clear. ability to carry six Lockheed Martin AIM-260 or Raytheon The F-35 Joint Program O ce (JPO) identifi ed the fi rst AIM-120 advanced medium-range air-to-air missiles in- 66 hardware and software upgrades listed under the Block ternally; a maritime strike capability of the Joint Strike 4 Follow-on Modernization in a report to Congress in May Missile; and the use of new long-range strike missiles, such 2019. The fi rst eight upgrades were due to enter service in as the future Stand-in Attack Weapon (SiAW) internally 2019, but because of unexpected complications, only one and possibly a hypersonic cruise missile carried externally. of them—an automatic ground-collision avoidance sys- Meanwhile, the Lot 22 F-35 rolling o Lockheed’s assembly tem—was released to the operational fl eet on time. Other line in 2030 also can access a new class of air-launched at- improvements, such as an interim full-motion video capa- tritable stores that add vast new sensing capacity, multiply bility for the Marine Corps’ F-35B fl eet, fell behind due to weapon loadouts and, depending on the mission, serve as later hardware deliveries, according to a Government Ac- kinetic options themselves. countability O ce (GAO) report released in May. ■ By 2030, the F-35’s role has already evolved from stan- The JPO also adopted an agile development process dard counterair and strike missions. The Army and Navy for Block 4. The upgrades are still organized in four ma- now use the F-35’s sensor data remotely to guide their jor increments—Block 4.1, 4.2, 4.3 and 4.4—and smaller interceptors to knock down incoming missiles. The Air batches of new capabilities are released in six-month cy- Force’s decentralized command-and-control system relies cles, a process called Continuous Capability Development on the F-35’s processing power, sensor data and communi- and Delivery (C2D2). Lockheed, for example, is scheduled cation hooks to orchestrate a wider attack in all domains. to complete development of 30P5 software in the third F-35 pilots still train to perform traditional fi ghter mis- quarter of this year, which will be followed by software sions, but the role the aircraft plays defi es the vocabulary drops called 30P6 in the fi rst quarter of 2021 and 30P7 in of the Air Force’s designation system. the third quarter of 2021. The agile development method is A decade may seem too short for such an evolution in intended to reduce the scale of delays caused by a release one program, but it is possible. Ten years ago, the F-35 of a large batch of fl awed software every two years, but it is was still in crisis mode: With the fl ight-test fl eet grounded not a panacea. As the software from the fi rst C2D2 release for most of 2009, the supply chain was reeling. Ashton entered testing, new problems appeared, such as Block 4 Carter, who was then the undersecretary of defense for software code causing “issues” for Block 3F functions that acquisition, technology and logistics, later acknowledged had been working, according to the GAO. that proposals to cancel the program had been briefl y The next major advance for the Block 4 program should considered during that period. arrive in 2023. This Block 4.2 confi guration will be the fi rst To date, Lockheed has delivered more than 500 F-35s to include Technical Refresh 3 (TR-3) hardware, which

5 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST FLIGHT PATHS FORWARD | F-35 > Sales outlook p. 54 Propulsion upgrades p. 55 OPTIMISTIC NEUTRAL PESSIMISTIC > After short-term stagnation, > Global defense spending > Global defense spending global defense spending stagnates through 2040, enters a long-term decline, resumes growth and Lockheed increasing downward setting off a 1990s-style delivers 4,000 F-35s overall. pressure on programs “procurement holiday” of record. for fighters. FUTURE SHOCKSHOCK > Despite early concerns, Lockheed completes the > Block 4 modernization > TR-3 Refresh and Block 4 > LENGTHY UPGRADE LIST TO Block 4 modernization program suffers some delays are delayed significantly, TRANSFORM THE F-35’s ROLE on-time and on-budget. and overruns but does with cost overruns leading not affect aircraft to further cuts in the procurement. procurement budget. > SCHEDULE PRESSURE GROWS ON COMPUTER UPGRADE

> FIRST BLOCK 4 UPGRADES A U.S. Air Force F-35A performed a flight test in May at ARRIVE LATE AND FLAWED Nellis AFB, Nevada, with GBU-49 laser-guided bombs. New upgrades will add the Raytheon GBU-53/B Stormbreaker, among other weapons, to the F-35’s arsenal. Steve Trimble Washington

THIS IS THE VISION FOR THE LOCKHEED MARTIN for so-called cognitive electronic warfare is becoming crit- F35 PROGRAM IN 10 YEARS: ical as adversaries shift to software-defined radios and ■ A worldwide fl eet of more than 2,000 fi ghters is in service frequency-hopping radar arrays. with a still-growing list of customers. Sales are spurred by If the current schedule is maintained, the TR-3 and Block a unit procurement price and cost per fl ight hour equal to AIRMAN 1ST CLASS BRYAN GUTHRIE/U.S. AIR FORCE 4.2 upgrades arriving in Lot 15 aircraft will include more or only slightly higher than a fourth-generation fi ghter. Yet than improved computing power. Lockheed is modifying the newly modernized Block 4 fl eet of F-35s boasts 25 times the internal weapons bay to enable the “sidekick” upgrade, more computing power than the version of the aircraft op- to nine countries, with another three countries signed up includes a new integrated core processor, an aircraft which increases the Raytheon AIM-120 missile loadout by erating today, enabling the software-based onboard fusion for still more. The unit fl yaway cost of an F-35A will fall to memory system and a panoramic cockpit display system. 50% to six missiles. As the Lockheed AIM-260 becomes engine to mine data from a far more advanced set of active $77.9 million for aircraft delivered in 2022 as part of the As the first cockpit computing for the F-35 since Block 3i available, the same loadout will become possible with a and passive sensors. 14th lot of yearly production. appeared in 2016, the TR3 will enable a leap in sensing missile measuring the same length as the AIM-120 but with ■ As the situational awareness in cockpit expands, the pi- In plotting the program’s next decade of development, a capability, especially for the BAE Systems ASQ-239 elec- significantly more range. lots have a variety of new weapon options available: the similar narrative of early struggles is becoming clear. tronic-warfare system. The same modification also accommodates the dimen- ability to carry six Lockheed Martin AIM-260 or Raytheon The F-35 Joint Program O ce (JPO) identifi ed the fi rst The TR-3 upgrade, however, also is facing development sions of the Air Force’s new SiAW missile, which adds a AIM-120 advanced medium-range air-to-air missiles in- 66 hardware and software upgrades listed under the Block challenges. The F-35 JPO is seeking a $42 million increase new warhead to the Navy’s Advanced Antiradiation Guided ternally; a maritime strike capability of the Joint Strike 4 Follow-on Modernization in a report to Congress in May in spending on TR-3 in fiscal 2021 to offset higher “tech- Missile-Extended Range. An Israeli-funded program to add Missile; and the use of new long-range strike missiles, such 2019. The fi rst eight upgrades were due to enter service in nical complexity.” wing-mounted fuel tanks to the F-35’s loadout options also as the future Stand-in Attack Weapon (SiAW) internally 2019, but because of unexpected complications, only one “Suppliers are challenged to meet a demanding sched- should become available and would increase the range by and possibly a hypersonic cruise missile carried externally. of them—an automatic ground-collision avoidance sys- ule with one holistic hardware-software system; therefore, 25% if the mission does not require minimizing the air - Meanwhile, the Lot 22 F-35 rolling o Lockheed’s assembly tem—was released to the operational fl eet on time. Other interim releases of hardware [will] reduce risk and enable craft’s profile on radar. line in 2030 also can access a new class of air-launched at- improvements, such as an interim full-motion video capa- parallel software development,” the Air Force said in a bud- By the end of the decade, operating the F-35 could be very tritable stores that add vast new sensing capacity, multiply bility for the Marine Corps’ F-35B fl eet, fell behind due to get justification document for fiscal 2021. different from how the aircraft’s designers in the late 1990s weapon loadouts and, depending on the mission, serve as later hardware deliveries, according to a Government Ac- The latest F-35 selected acquisition report (SAR), which had anticipated. The Air Force’s Skyborg program seeks to kinetic options themselves. countability O ce (GAO) report released in May. was released by the Defense Department in early July, reports introduce a new family of ground- and air-launched aircraft ■ By 2030, the F-35’s role has already evolved from stan- The JPO also adopted an agile development process similar issues with TR-3, citing specifically higher costs due that can serve as autonomous teammates, or wingmen, for dard counterair and strike missions. The Army and Navy for Block 4. The upgrades are still organized in four ma- to additional support needed to help one supplier manage F-35 pilots. “Skyborg” itself refers to the development of a now use the F-35’s sensor data remotely to guide their jor increments—Block 4.1, 4.2, 4.3 and 4.4—and smaller the complexity of a field-programmable gate array used in new autonomous control system that can be trained to per- interceptors to knock down incoming missiles. The Air batches of new capabilities are released in six-month cy- the new processor system. The development of the integrated form a diverse set of missions. The Air Force expects F-35 Force’s decentralized command-and-control system relies cles, a process called Continuous Capability Development core processor and the aircraft memory system also are pilots to use the Skyborg-equipped aircraft much like reus- on the F-35’s processing power, sensor data and communi- and Delivery (C2D2). Lockheed, for example, is scheduled suffering delays, according to the annual SAR. able munitions; in other words, a missile that can be fired cation hooks to orchestrate a wider attack in all domains. to complete development of 30P5 software in the third As the TR-3-equipped Block 4.2 configuration arrives in and, if no worthy target appears, recovered and used again. F-35 pilots still train to perform traditional fi ghter mis- quarter of this year, which will be followed by software the fleet, the F-35’s power to sense targets and threats pas- The capabilities envisioned by the F-35’s designers two sions, but the role the aircraft plays defi es the vocabulary drops called 30P6 in the fi rst quarter of 2021 and 30P7 in sively should rise enormously. The upgrade also paves the decades ago are now available in operational aircraft, albeit of the Air Force’s designation system. the third quarter of 2021. The agile development method is way for a critical update to BAE’s electronic-warfare sys- several years later than originally envisioned and for higher A decade may seem too short for such an evolution in intended to reduce the scale of delays caused by a release tem, especially the jamming techniques generators embed- procurement and operating costs. As the next decade un- one program, but it is possible. Ten years ago, the F-35 of a large batch of fl awed software every two years, but it is ded in Racks 2A and 2B of the ASQ-239. BAE also plans to folds, the JPO and Lockheed will seek to add capabilities was still in crisis mode: With the fl ight-test fl eet grounded not a panacea. As the software from the fi rst C2D2 release upgrade the wing-leading-edge-mounted receivers in Bands that have become defined only within the last decade and for most of 2009, the supply chain was reeling. Ashton entered testing, new problems appeared, such as Block 4 2, 3 and 4 as well as activate new Band 5 receivers from to adopt several concepts, including Skyborg and SiAW, Carter, who was then the undersecretary of defense for software code causing “issues” for Block 3F functions that broad spectrum coverage from very low to extremely high that have emerged only recently. The history of the F-35 acquisition, technology and logistics, later acknowledged had been working, according to the GAO. radio frequencies. Aided by the more powerful processors program is characterized by overpromising and underper- that proposals to cancel the program had been briefl y The next major advance for the Block 4 program should introduced by TR-3, the F-35 may be able to develop jam- forming in the development phase. As Block 4 development considered during that period. arrive in 2023. This Block 4.2 confi guration will be the fi rst ming techniques as it encounters new signals not previously transitions from concept to reality, the challenge will be To date, Lockheed has delivered more than 500 F-35s to include Technical Refresh 3 (TR-3) hardware, which stored in the aircraft’s mission data files. Such a capacity avoiding similar missteps. c

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> U.S. AIR FORCE AND MARINE CORPS SEND CONFLICTING SIGNALS > UAS AND F-15EX INCREASE F-35 COMPETITION

Two F-35As (above, right) ew last year with a pair of Spanish Air Force Euro ghter Typhoons. The F-35B is a candidate to replace the Spanish Navy’s Harrier jets.

The military technology advances MASS COMMUNICATION SC. N CLASS OUGLAS ARER/U.S. AIR FORCE add further pressure. The U.S. Air Force is developing a new class of low-cost attritable unmanned air- depend on maintaining the original craft systems (UAS), which the orderbook of the U.S. Air Force, the service envisions performing as program’s largest customer, with an reusable munitions to augment the o cial requirement for 1,763 F-35As. sensor and weapons capabilities of Steve Trimble Washington Although Air Force leadership re- aircraft such as the F-35. As the tech- mains fully committed, cracks have nology matures, the ACC sees the po- ockheed Martin has marketed appeared in the service’s long-term tential for using swarms of attritable the F-35 successfully to 14 coun- programming. In March, Air Combat UAS to replace hundreds of the Air Ltries over nearly 20 years. Sub- Command (ACC) announced a goal Force’s oldest F-16s, which are due to tracting Turkey’s canceled program for to achieve a long-term fighter fleet enter retirement in the second half 100 jets, Lockheed still boasts commit- composed of 60% F-35s and Lockheed of the decade. ments from 13 countries to buy nearly F-22s and 40% among Boeing F-15s, But demand for the F-35 still is 3,220 F-35s, with deliveries projected Lockheed F-16s and Fairchild Republic growing in other areas. The U.S. gov- out to 2046. Three more countries with A-10s. The Air Force inventory today ernment’s recent approval of 105 F-35s a combined requirement for about 200 counts about 2,190 fighters overall, for Japan shows how the international fi ghters are evaluating the F-35 in com- leaving room for a total of about 1,315 program still can expand. Japan orig- petitive tenders, and another fi ve have F-22s and F-35s combined to achieve inally acquired 42 F-35s in 2014 to publicly discussed a long-term interest the 60% goal. If about 180 F-22s are replace an aging fleet of McDonnell in acquiring the aircraft. removed from the equation, the Air Douglas F-4s. The newly approved ac- That is the good news for the only Force would be left with a total fl eet quisition would expand the F-35 fl eet supersonic, stealthy fighter with a requirement for 1,135 F-35As. to replace Japan’s oldest F-15s. Israel, short-takeo -and-vertical-landing The Marine Corps, which plans to meanwhile, already has ordered 50 variant on the export market today. buy 357 F-35Bs, faces similar pres- F-35s. As a political leadership crisis But that otherwise optimistic sales sures. In March, the Marine Corps an- moves toward stability, Israel soon outlook is clouded by resource con- nounced plans to cap F-35B squadrons could sign a follow-on order for up straints, shifting priorities and new at 10 aircraft each, eliminating plans to to 75 new jets, with the F-35A and technological advances that threaten fi eld nine of 14 F-35B squadrons with F-15EX splitting the deal. a large portion of the planned orders 16 aircraft. The decision appears to Other countries still are seeking in the F-35 program of record. More- create an inventory surplus of about to enter the program. Singapore has over, the recent expulsion of Turkey 54 jets, but the Marines have not made been approved by the U.S. to order from the program because of its ac- any changes to the program of record. up to 12 F-35Bs. In January, the prime quisition of Russian military hard- Similar constraints are visible in minister of Greece announced plans to ware highlights rising pressure from other countries. The UK is in the midst order F-35As after a batch of upgraded political interference on high-profi le of a defense review with o cials scru- F-16s are delivered in 2024. The U.S. foreign arms sales. tinizing plans for the Royal Air Force government also has named Romania The U.S.-led F-35 Joint Program Of- and Royal Navy to acquire a total of and Spain in Europe as potential F-35 fi ce declared in 2009 that total sales of 138 F-35Bs, of which only the fi rst 48 buyers . In the Middle East, the United the F-35 could reach 6,000, but more are funded so far. Alongside plans to Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia are than a decade later government and upgrade the Eurofi ghter Typhoon and busy absorbing new Dassault Rafale Lockheed o cials prefer to size the develop the Tempest next-generation and F-15SA jets, respectively, but are global market at around 4,000. Even fi ghter, the Defense Ministry will have likely to consider the F-35 in the sec- the more modest projection may to balance resources carefully. ond half of the decade. c

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Rising Pressures Cloud Optimistic F-35 Propulsion Upgrade Moves Although Pratt exceeded the delivery goal in 2019 by three engines, each F-35 Sales Outlook Forward Despite Uncertainty shipment came an average of 10-15 days behind the schedule in the con- U.S. AIR FORCE AND MARINE CORPS SEND ENHANCEMENT PACKAGE REPLACES “GROWTH OPTION” tract. The fan, low-pressure turbine > > and nozzle hardware drove the deliv- CONFLICTING SIGNALS > NEW F-35 PROPULSION ROAD MAP DUE IN SIX MONTHS ery delays, according to the Defense > UAS AND F-15EX INCREASE F-35 COMPETITION Department’s latest annual Selected Steve Trimble Washington Acquisition Report on the F-35. Lock- heed’s production schedule allows tabilizing the production sys- five years. A follow-on effort within the more than two weeks before the en- Two F-35As (above, right) ew last year with a pair of tem and securing a funded, AETP is developing a similar engine gine is needed for the final assembly long-term upgrade plan are for a next-generation fighter, but nei- line, so Pratt’s late deliveries did not Spanish Air Force Euro ghter Typhoons. The F-35B is a S now the main objectives for Pratt & ther the Air Force nor the Navy have hold up the overall F-35 schedule, says candidate to replace the Spanish Navy’s Harrier jets. Whitney’s F135 propulsion system for committed to a schedule for transi- Matthew Bromberg, president of the Lockheed Martin F-35. tioning the technology into an air- Pratt’s Military Engines business. Although first delivered for ground- craft-development program. That F135 deliveries finally caught up to The military technology advances MASS COMMUNICATION SPC. 2ND CLASS DOUGLAS PARKER/U.S.SC. N OUGLAS ARER/U.S. AIR FORCE AIR FORCE testing 17 years ago, the F135 remains leaves Pratt’s F135 as the only feasible the contract delivery dates in the first add further pressure. The U.S. Air a lifeline in Pratt’s combat aircraft en- application for inserting new propul- quarter of this year, but the supply Force is developing a new class of gines portfolio for new-development sion technology for a decade more. chain and productivity disruptions low-cost attritable unmanned air- funding. The U.S. military engines mar- depend on maintaining the original craft systems (UAS), which the ket is entering an era of transition with MCSN MICHAEL T. FORBES II/U.S. NAVY orderbook of the U.S. Air Force, the service envisions performing as great uncertainty for the timing of the program’s largest customer, with an reusable munitions to augment the next major combat aircraft program. o cial requirement for 1,763 F-35As. sensor and weapons capabilities of The transition era begins with the Steve Trimble Washington Although Air Force leadership re- aircraft such as the F-35. As the tech- likely pending delivery of Pratt’s most mains fully committed, cracks have nology matures, the ACC sees the po- secretive development project. In ockheed Martin has marketed appeared in the service’s long-term tential for using swarms of attritable 2016, the U.S. Air Force named Pratt the F-35 successfully to 14 coun- programming. In March, Air Combat UAS to replace hundreds of the Air as one of seven major suppliers for the Ltries over nearly 20 years. Sub- Command (ACC) announced a goal Force’s oldest F-16s, which are due to Northrop Grumman B-21 bomber. The tracting Turkey’s canceled program for to achieve a long-term fighter fleet enter retirement in the second half Air Force also has set the first flight of 100 jets, Lockheed still boasts commit- composed of 60% F-35s and Lockheed of the decade. the B-21 for around December 2021. ments from 13 countries to buy nearly F-22s and 40% among Boeing F-15s, But demand for the F-35 still is That timing means Pratt is likely to 3,220 F-35s, with deliveries projected Lockheed F-16s and Fairchild Republic growing in other areas. The U.S. gov- have delivered the first engine for out to 2046. Three more countries with A-10s. The Air Force inventory today ernment’s recent approval of 105 F-35s ground-testing. At some point within a combined requirement for about 200 counts about 2,190 fighters overall, for Japan shows how the international the next year, Pratt should be planning fi ghters are evaluating the F-35 in com- leaving room for a total of about 1,315 program still can expand. Japan orig- to deliver the first flight-worthy engine petitive tenders, and another fi ve have F-22s and F-35s combined to achieve inally acquired 42 F-35s in 2014 to to Northrop’s final assembly line in publicly discussed a long-term interest the 60% goal. If about 180 F-22s are replace an aging fleet of McDonnell Palmdale, California, to support the in acquiring the aircraft. removed from the equation, the Air Douglas F-4s. The newly approved ac- Air Force’s first B-21 flight schedule. That is the good news for the only Force would be left with a total fl eet quisition would expand the F-35 fl eet As the bomber engine development supersonic, stealthy fighter with a requirement for 1,135 F-35As. to replace Japan’s oldest F-15s. Israel, project winds down, the propulsion short-takeo -and-vertical-landing The Marine Corps, which plans to meanwhile, already has ordered 50 system for the next fighter aircraft variant on the export market today. buy 357 F-35Bs, faces similar pres- F-35s. As a political leadership crisis continues to be developed, but with- An F-35B completed the first landing at sea on the USS Wasp in 2013. But that otherwise optimistic sales sures. In March, the Marine Corps an- moves toward stability, Israel soon out a clear schedule for transitioning The Joint Program Office is considering thrust upgrades to increase the outlook is clouded by resource con- nounced plans to cap F-35B squadrons could sign a follow-on order for up to an operational system. F-35B’s “bring-back” payload to a carrier. straints, shifting priorities and new at 10 aircraft each, eliminating plans to to 75 new jets, with the F-35A and The Air Force Research Laboratory’s technological advances that threaten fi eld nine of 14 F-35B squadrons with F-15EX splitting the deal. Adaptive Engine Transition Program After spending the last decade fo- caused by the COVID-19 pandemic a large portion of the planned orders 16 aircraft. The decision appears to Other countries still are seeking (AETP) is sponsoring a competition cused on completing development of the have set the program back. About in the F-35 program of record. More- create an inventory surplus of about to enter the program. Singapore has to develop an adaptive engine that can F-35 and upgrading the software, elec- five engines scheduled for delivery over, the recent expulsion of Turkey 54 jets, but the Marines have not made been approved by the U.S. to order modulate the airflow into and around tronics and mission systems, the JPO in the second quarter fell behind the from the program because of its ac- any changes to the program of record. up to 12 F-35Bs. In January, the prime the core to improve fuel efficiency and is developing a road map to improve contractual delivery date, Bromberg quisition of Russian military hard- Similar constraints are visible in minister of Greece announced plans to increase range. The AETP competi- the propulsion system through 2035. says. The pressure will grow as a ware highlights rising pressure from other countries. The UK is in the midst order F-35As after a batch of upgraded tion is between Pratt’s XA101 and GE’s As the road map is being devel- loaded delivery schedule in the sec- political interference on high-profi le of a defense review with o cials scru- F-16s are delivered in 2024. The U.S. XA100 designs, with the first engines oped, program officials also are seek- ond half of the year adds pressure on foreign arms sales. tinizing plans for the Royal Air Force government also has named Romania set to be delivered for ground-testing by ing to stabilize the engine production deliveries, but Pratt’s supply chain The U.S.-led F-35 Joint Program Of- and Royal Navy to acquire a total of and Spain in Europe as potential F-35 the end of this year or early next year. system. Pratt delivered about 600 managers expect to be back within fi ce declared in 2009 that total sales of 138 F-35Bs, of which only the fi rst 48 buyers . In the Middle East, the United As 45,000-lb.-thrust-class engines, F135s to Lockheed through the end the contract dates in the first quarter the F-35 could reach 6,000, but more are funded so far. Alongside plans to Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia are the first AETP designs are optimized of last year, including 150—or about of next year, he says. than a decade later government and upgrade the Eurofi ghter Typhoon and busy absorbing new Dassault Rafale for repowering the single-engine F-35, 25%—in 2019 alone. The JPO signed The F-35 program’s political nature Lockheed o cials prefer to size the develop the Tempest next-generation and F-15SA jets, respectively, but are but the F-35 Joint Program Office a $7.3 billion contract with Pratt last also has caused program disruptions. global market at around 4,000. Even fi ghter, the Defense Ministry will have likely to consider the F-35 in the sec- (JPO) has established no requirement year to deliver another 509 engines in The Defense Department’s expulsion the more modest projection may to balance resources carefully. ond half of the decade. c to replace the F135 for at least another 2020-22, or about 170 a year. of Turkey from the F-35 program last

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year also banished the country’s sup- ing additional thrust to increase pay- terminology is gone. The proposals are ply chain, which contributed 188 parts load mass for a vertical landing, but now called Engine Enhancement Pack- to the F135. In particular, Alp Aviation the proposed package did not go far ages (EEP). The goal of the rebranding produces the Stage 2, 3, 4 and 5 inte- enough to attract the JPO’s interest. is to show the upgrades no longer are grally bladed rotors (IBR) for the F135. “It missed the mark because we optional for F-35 customers. As of early July, about 128 parts didn’t focus our technologies on “As the engine provider and the now made in Turkey are ready to power and thermal management,” [sustainment] provider, I’m very inter- transition to other suppliers, of which Bromberg says. ested in keeping everything common,” about 80% are based in the U.S., ac- A year later, Pratt unveiled the Bromberg says. “The idea behind the cording to Bromberg. The new suppli- Growth Option 2.0. In addition to pro- Engine Enhancement Packages is ers should be requalified to produce viding more thrust at less fuel burn, they will migrate into the engines or those parts in the first quarter of 2021 the new package offered to generate upgrade over time. We don’t have to do them all at once. The [digital engine controls] will understand which configuration. That allows us again to be seamless in production, where I would presumably cut over entirely, but also to upgrade fleets at regularly scheduled maintenance visits.” Pratt has divided the capabilities RICK GOODFRIEND/U.S. AIR FORCE from Growth Options 1 and 2 into a series of EEPs, with new capabilities packaged in increments of two years from 2025 to 2029. “If you go all the way to the right, you get all the benefits of Growth Option 2, plus some that we’ve been able to create,” Bromberg says. “But if you need less than that and you’re shorter on time or money, then you can take a subset of it.” Meanwhile, the Air Force continues to fund AETP development as a A new upgrade strategy could result in modifications to the F135—pictured potential F135 replacement. As the during a test inside the Sea Level 3 cell at Arnold Engineering Development propulsion road map is finalized, the Complex in Texas—in the short term and a replacement engine in the long term. JPO will decide whether Pratt’s F135 upgrade proposals support the re - and ready to meet production rate more electrical power to support quirement or if a new engine core is targets for Lot 15 aircraft, which will planned advances in the aircraft’s needed to support the F-35’s thrust begin deliveries in 2023. electronics and sensors, with the abili- and power-generation needs over the “The overriding objective was to ty to manage the additional heat with- long term. move with speed and diligence along out compromising the F-35’s signature Previously, Bromberg questioned the transition plan and ensure we in the infrared spectrum. the business case for reengining the are ready to be fully out of Turkey Last fall, the JPO’s propulsion man- F-35 by pointing out that a split fleet of by about Lot 15,” Bromberg explains. agement office teamed up with the F135- and AETP-powered jets erodes “And we are on track for that.” Advanced Design Group at Naval Air commonality and increases sustain- As Pratt transfers suppliers, the Systems Command to analyze how ment costs. Bromberg also noted it is company also has to manage the ef- planned F-35 mission systems up - not clear the third-stream technology fect on potential upgrade options. Alp grades will increase the load on the required for the AETP can be accom- Aviation, for example, had announced engine’s thrust levels and power gen- modated within the roughly 4-ft.-dia. a research and development program eration and thermal management ca- engine bay of the F-35B. to convert the finished titanium IBRs pacity. In May, the JPO commissioned Now Bromberg says he is willing to to a more resilient nickel material. studies by Lockheed and Pratt to in- support the JPO’s decision if the road For several years, Pratt has sought form a 15-year technology-insertion map determines a reengining is nec- to improve the performance of the road map for the propulsion system. essary. “If the road map indicates that F135 above the baseline level. In 2017, The road map is due later this year or they need significantly more out of the the company unveiled the Growth in early 2021, with the goal of informing engine than the Engine Enhancement Option 1.0 upgrade, which is aimed the spending plan submitted with the Packages can provide, we would be at delivering modular improvements Pentagon’s fiscal 2023 budget request. the first to say an AETP motor would that would lead to a 5% or 6% fuel-burn As the studies continue, a name be required,” Bromberg says. “But we improvement and a 6-10% increase in change to Pratt’s upgrade proposals think a lot of the AETP technologies thrust across the flight envelope. The reveals a fundamental shift in philos- will make those Engines Enhancement Marine Corps, in particular, was seek- ophy. Pratt’s earlier “Growth Option” Packages viable.” c

56 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST FLIGHT PATHS FORWARD | F-35 DEFENSE year also banished the country’s sup- ing additional thrust to increase pay- terminology is gone. The proposals are Defense Ministry Wants Japan’s try does not recommend it this time. ply chain, which contributed 188 parts load mass for a vertical landing, but now called Engine Enhancement Pack- “In the cases of F-2 and P-1, there to the F135. In particular, Alp Aviation the proposed package did not go far ages (EEP). The goal of the rebranding Next Fighter Flying in 2028 were multiple prime contractors, but produces the Stage 2, 3, 4 and 5 inte- enough to attract the JPO’s interest. is to show the upgrades no longer are aircraft of the fifth-generation and lat- grally bladed rotors (IBR) for the F135. “It missed the mark because we optional for F-35 customers. THE AIRCRAFT HAS A NEW NAME, THE F-X er need tighter coordination to achieve As of early July, about 128 parts didn’t focus our technologies on “As the engine provider and the > higher stealthiness,” the ministry says. now made in Turkey are ready to power and thermal management,” [sustainment] provider, I’m very inter- > FULL-SCALE DEVELOPMENT LOOKS SLATED FOR 2022 Of the other contracting arrange- transition to other suppliers, of which Bromberg says. ested in keeping everything common,” ments, each is seen to have disadvan- about 80% are based in the U.S., ac- A year later, Pratt unveiled the Bromberg says. “The idea behind the Bradley Perrett Beijing tages, and none is specifically recom- cording to Bromberg. The new suppli- Growth Option 2.0. In addition to pro- Engine Enhancement Packages is mended. One would be to have a single ers should be requalified to produce viding more thrust at less fuel burn, they will migrate into the engines or he Japanese defense ministry to advantage the U.S. contenders for prime contractor, as was done with the those parts in the first quarter of 2021 the new package offered to generate upgrade over time. We don’t have to proposes to fly the first proto- collaboration with Japan—which the MHI X-2 fighter technology demon- do them all at once. The [digital en- Ttype of the country’s next fighter ministry says are Boeing, Lockheed strator. The disadvantage would be the gine controls] will understand which in 2028 and begin deliveries to the air Martin and Northrop Grumman, local lack of contractual obligations between configuration. That allows us again force seven years later. More imme- media report. Those cooperation part- the ministry and the engine and avion- to be seamless in production, where diately, the government and industry ners would have to be paid by Japan ic companies. The program might not I would presumably cut over entirely, must soon decide on the contracting rather than the U.S., which has no im- fully reflect the needs of the user—that but also to upgrade fleets at regularly arrangements for the program. minent fighter program that can be is, the Japan Air Self-Defense Force. scheduled maintenance visits.” Since a plan presented to the rul- shared with even a close ally. Another option is to set up a spe- Pratt has divided the capabilities ing Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) LDP member of Parliament Sato cial-purpose company for the job, the RICK GOODFRIEND/U.S. AIR FORCE from Growth Options 1 and 2 into a on July 7 includes starting to build Masahisa and journalist Takahashi ministry says. Its engineers would come series of EEPs, with new capabilities the first prototype in 2024, the min- packaged in increments of two years istry must intend to launch full-scale from 2025 to 2029. development in 2022. The proposed P - S “If you go all the way to the right, schedule includes tradeoff studies in you get all the benefits of Growth concept design beginning next year, Concept, basic and detail design Option 2, plus some that we’ve been by which time British or U.S. develop- able to create,” Bromberg says. “But ment partners would be involved. Prototype manufacturing if you need less than that and you’re The tradeoffs may be made in small shorter on time or money, then you ranges because the ministry has pretty Ground testing can take a subset of it.” clearly told the world what it thinks Meanwhile, the Air Force contin- Japan needs. Its concept designs pre- Flight testing ues to fund AETP development as a pared since 2013 have consistently A new upgrade strategy could result in modifications to the F135—pictured potential F135 replacement. As the envisaged long endurance, less than Manufacturing of ﬁrst during a test inside the Sea Level 3 cell at Arnold Engineering Development propulsion road map is finalized, the extreme flight performance and inter- production aircraft Complex in Texas—in the short term and a replacement engine in the long term. JPO will decide whether Pratt’s F135 nal carriage of eight air-to-air missiles 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 upgrade proposals support the re - (six of long range and two of short Source: Japanese Ministry of Defense and ready to meet production rate more electrical power to support quirement or if a new engine core is range). The aircraft would therefore targets for Lot 15 aircraft, which will planned advances in the aircraft’s needed to support the F-35’s thrust be vastly larger than the type it is Kosuke published the ministry’s slides from Japan’s current aerospace compa- begin deliveries in 2023. electronics and sensors, with the abili- and power-generation needs over the intended to replace, the Mitsubishi from the presentation online. nies, each of which would choose how “The overriding objective was to ty to manage the additional heat with- long term. Heavy Industries (MHI) F-2. The schedule for the fighter pro - large a share—and therefore how large move with speed and diligence along out compromising the F-35’s signature Previously, Bromberg questioned Moreover, the ministry implicitly gram envisages a rush of actions by the a risk—to take. The taxpayer would the transition plan and ensure we in the infrared spectrum. the business case for reengining the defended its concept in the presen- end of this year. Officials said a decision need to pay for a new head office. are ready to be fully out of Turkey Last fall, the JPO’s propulsion man- F-35 by pointing out that a split fleet of tation by twice emphasizing that on contracting arrangements should The last listed possibility would be a by about Lot 15,” Bromberg explains. agement office teamed up with the F135- and AETP-powered jets erodes the proposed fighter should carry be made this month, according to the joint venture. There would be no new “And we are on track for that.” Advanced Design Group at Naval Air commonality and increases sustain- “enough” air-to-air missiles. Asahi newspaper. After that, according company, but each participant would As Pratt transfers suppliers, the Systems Command to analyze how ment costs. Bromberg also noted it is The project has a new name, the to the presentation, the ministry will bear unlimited liability. Risk-sharing company also has to manage the ef- planned F-35 mission systems up - not clear the third-stream technology F-X, succeeding the former moniker request F-X funds in September and would have to be defined, and the pro- fect on potential upgrade options. Alp grades will increase the load on the required for the AETP can be accom- of the Next-Generation Fighter and, believes a Japanese prime contractor gram could be paralyzed if the part- Aviation, for example, had announced engine’s thrust levels and power gen- modated within the roughly 4-ft.-dia. before that, the Future Fighter. or prime contractors should be chosen ners could not agree. a research and development program eration and thermal management ca- engine bay of the F-35B. Japan’s inclination to begin F-X work in October. By the end of the year, the MHI has most of Japan’s expertise to convert the finished titanium IBRs pacity. In May, the JPO commissioned Now Bromberg says he is willing to so early clashes with the schedule of choice between a British and U.S. part- as a fighter airframe prime contrac- to a more resilient nickel material. studies by Lockheed and Pratt to in- support the JPO’s decision if the road Britain’s proposed BAE Systems-led nership should be made, along with tor, while Mitsubishi Electric devel- For several years, Pratt has sought form a 15-year technology-insertion map determines a reengining is nec- Tempest fighter program, with which parliamentary allocation of money for oped the radar for the F-2. IHI is the to improve the performance of the road map for the propulsion system. essary. “If the road map indicates that the F-X effort could be associated to the fiscal year beginning April 1. only possible Japanese engine supplier F135 above the baseline level. In 2017, The road map is due later this year or they need significantly more out of the share costs. Full-scale development of Four possible contracting arrange- and has built a technology demon- the company unveiled the Growth in early 2021, with the goal of informing engine than the Engine Enhancement the Tempest is not supposed to begin ments are under consideration. One strator engine for the prospective Option 1.0 upgrade, which is aimed the spending plan submitted with the Packages can provide, we would be before 2025. The ministry specifically is Japan’s usual practice of separately program. MHI built 94 F-2s; a simi- at delivering modular improvements Pentagon’s fiscal 2023 budget request. the first to say an AETP motor would raises the possibility of working on the contracting for airframes, engines and lar number of F-Xs is likely. Japan has that would lead to a 5% or 6% fuel-burn As the studies continue, a name be required,” Bromberg says. “But we F-X’s engine with Britain, which may avionic equipment. For example, this spent or will spend ¥228 billion ($2.13 improvement and a 6-10% increase in change to Pratt’s upgrade proposals think a lot of the AETP technologies mean Rolls-Royce could be involved was the setup for Japan’s previous fight- billion) on research and development thrust across the flight envelope. The reveals a fundamental shift in philos- will make those Engines Enhancement even if BAE were not. er and the Kawasaki Heavy Industries in relation to the F-X in 2010-25, the Marine Corps, in particular, was seek- ophy. Pratt’s earlier “Growth Option” Packages viable.” c The early schedule therefore seems P-1 maritime patroller, but the minis- ministry says. c

56 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 57 MISSILE DEFENSE ARROW 4.0 > ARROW WEAPON SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT PROGRESSES AS IRANIAN MISSILE THREAT EVOLVES

> KHORRAMSHAHR MISSILE POSES NEW THREAT > DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING FOR NEW ARROW 4 AND UPGRADED ARROW 2

Steve Trimble Washington uilding on three generations of the Arrow Weapon System, Israel’s Upper Tier missile interceptors Bare in line for new upgrades as the Iranian missile threat continues to evolve in new and surprising ways.

A 2019 test staged in Alaska demonstrated the shoot-look-shoot capability of the Arrow 3 interceptor.

U.S. MISSILE DEFENSE AGENCY PHOTOS The 34-year-old collaboration be- tary retaliated in January by killing announced completing a success - tween Israel Aerospace Industries Qassem Soleimani, commander of ful test of a new MRBM called the (IAI) and Boeing at the integration Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Khorramshahr. Acquired from North level has delivered a multilayered Corps (IRGC), in Iraq. Five days later, Korea’s stockpile of Musudan mis- defensive system with a now-demon- the IRGC launched between 13 and 22 siles—themselves derived from the strated ability to shoot down Syrian short-range ballistic missiles—U.S., Soviet R-27, according to the Center SA-5 missiles at medium altitude Iraqi and Iranian sources reported for Strategic and International Stud- as well as Israel-designed Silver different numbers—at a major U.S. ies’ Missile Defense Project—Iran said Sparrow targets to simulate inter- military base in Iraq, causing damage the liquid-fueled Khorramshahr intro- cepts of medium-range ballistic mis- but no fatalities. duced the country’s first multiple inde- siles (MRBM) in space. The attacks highlighted Israel’s pendently targetable reentry vehicle In a fateful coincidence, Israel’s mis- nearly four-decade quest to erect a (MIRV) technology, although analysts sile defense organization in July 2019 multilayered defensive system against say its size likely limits the warhead to demonstrated the critical “shoot-look- a wide variety of threats, from un- unguided submunitions. shoot” capability of the Arrow 3 dur- guided rockets to recently upgraded The Khorramshahr, however, re- ing a series of test launches in Alaska MRBMs equipped with maneuvering flects both the current limits and just ahead of a monthslong spike in reentry vehicles and potentially dis- steady improvement of Iran’s al- regional tensions with Iran. persible submunitions. ready large ballistic missile arsenal. In September, about two dozen Israel declared the Arrow 3 inter- Likewise, the launch in April of the Iranian unmanned aircraft systems ceptor operational in January 2017. IRGC’s first satellite—reportedly a (UAS) and missiles struck oil facili- By intention or coincidence, Israel’s cubesat—also reflects a step toward ties in Saudi Arabia. The U.S. mili- declaration came a week before Iran longer-range and more sophisticated

58 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST MISSILE DEFENSE

ballistic missiles. In addition to the activation of the Arrow 3 in Khorramshahr, Iran fielded the Emad 2013, the Israeli system has variant of the Shahab-3 MRBM, guided provided defensive cover- ARROW 4.0 by an inertial navigation system and age over the entire country. featuring a maneuverable reentry In addition to Israel- owned vehicle (MARV) warhead to dramati- Patriot PAC-3 missile bat- > ARROW WEAPON SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT PROGRESSES cally improve accuracy. teries, the U.S. has also AS IRANIAN MISSILE THREAT EVOLVES Israel introduced the Arrow 2 deployed the TPY-2 radar Block 1 in 2000 less than two years for the Terminal High- after the first test launch in Iran of Altitude Area Defense Sys- > KHORRAMSHAHR MISSILE POSES NEW THREAT the Shabab-3, an indigenous version tem to Israel. of North Korea’s Nodong missile. Israel keeps a tight rein DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING FOR NEW The Arrow 3 Block 5 appeared on on information about peri- > the heals of Iran’s acquisition of the odic updates to the major ARROW 4 AND UPGRADED ARROW 2 Korramshahr. As Iranian capabilities systems, but announce- continue to evolve, Israel seeks to en- ments by export customers sure its Upper Tier missile defense have filled in some of the layer is prepared. gaps. For example, Israel “We are working in cycles of devel- declared the Super Green opment,” says Boaz Levy, executive Pine radar operational in Steve Trimble Washington vice president of IAI’s Systems, Mis- 2010, with the activation of siles and Space group. “We always the Green Pine “Block B.” uilding on three generations of the look toward the next generation, Eight years later, South Arrow Weapon System, Israel’s and—since we have Arrow 3 right Korea announced buying Upper Tier missile interceptors now—it’s kind of logical that we would two Green Pine Block C have Arrow 4 in the future.” radars for missile defense. Bare in line for new upgrades as the The Arrow 3 expanded the inter- Officially, Israel’s Iranian missile threat continues to evolve cept envelope of Israel’s Upper Tier ground-based radar net- in new and surprising ways. by about four times compared to the work is deemed sufficient Arrow 2, but it is unclear what the re- for detecting missiles quirements will be for the Arrow 4. As launched over the hori- An early version of the two-stage Arrow 2 Iran’s MRBMs become more sophis- zon, as the curvature of the interceptor was fired from a mobile launcher Earth allows for enough ticated, Israel’s defensive technology during a 2004 test. must adapt to discriminate warheads detection warning to sup- and MIRVs from more numerous and port multiple intercept attempts by and developing the Arrow 4, Israel also advanced decoys. Arrow missiles at incoming MRBM is actively pursuing upgrades for the “We are really working on [the warheads while still in space. Arrow 2. The original indigenous weap- A 2019 test staged in Alaska demonstrated Arrow 4] capability these days, so “Ballistic missile defense means on in Israel’s Upper Tier layer (the the shoot-look-shoot capability of the Arrow 3 interceptor. in the near future when the threat that your threat will always come initial Arrow concept was scrapped in will emerge and we have the need to from a high altitude,” Levy explains. the late 1990s) has performed reliably U.S. MISSILE DEFENSE AGENCY PHOTOS counter a new type of capability, we “That’s why over-the-horizon [radar] over two decades. In its first test in The 34-year-old collaboration be- tary retaliated in January by killing announced completing a success - will have the vehicle to do so,” Levy is not such an important thing that we battle, the Arrow 2 intercepted a Syr- tween Israel Aerospace Industries Qassem Soleimani, commander of ful test of a new MRBM called the says. “So Arrow 3 exists and, as I men- put our effort into it. Since the radar is ian SA-5 that was targeting an Israeli (IAI) and Boeing at the integration Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Khorramshahr. Acquired from North tioned, Arrow 4 is our future capabil- looking up, the threat will be acquired Air Force F-16 returning from a strike level has delivered a multilayered Corps (IRGC), in Iraq. Five days later, Korea’s stockpile of Musudan mis- ity. Unfortunately, I will not be able to by the radar. That’s why the radars mission. The Arrow 2 also has been defensive system with a now-demon- the IRGC launched between 13 and 22 siles—themselves derived from the describe what it is, and it is something that are deployed in Israel offer suf- successfully tested against a series strated ability to shoot down Syrian short-range ballistic missiles—U.S., Soviet R-27, according to the Center that we will have to wait until we will be ficient acquisition time and accuracy of Sparrow-series targets, including SA-5 missiles at medium altitude Iraqi and Iranian sources reported for Strategic and International Stud- permitted to speak about it.” to cue our interceptors on time.” Black and Blue Sparrows, simulated as well as Israel-designed Silver different numbers—at a major U.S. ies’ Missile Defense Project—Iran said As the Arrow 4 system continues Nonetheless, U.S. budget docu- Scud-type missiles. Sparrow targets to simulate inter- military base in Iraq, causing damage the liquid-fueled Khorramshahr intro- being worked on within IAI, the Israel ments show Israel is pursuing ad- The evolution of Iranian mis- cepts of medium-range ballistic mis- but no fatalities. duced the country’s first multiple inde- government is developing the 2025 ditional radar tracking options for sile capabilities includes threats siles (MRBM) in space. The attacks highlighted Israel’s pendently targetable reentry vehicle Missile Defense Architecture to define over-the-horizon detection. that fly at lower altitudes than the In a fateful coincidence, Israel’s mis- nearly four-decade quest to erect a (MIRV) technology, although analysts the reference threats and capabilities “Arrow Block 5 development incor- Khorramshahr, so the endoatmo - sile defense organization in July 2019 multilayered defensive system against say its size likely limits the warhead to over a 10-15-year period, according to porates a Long-Range Detection Suite spheric intercept capability of the demonstrated the critical “shoot-look- a wide variety of threats, from un- unguided submunitions. U.S. budget documents. (LRDS) that consists of an unmanned Arrow 2 remains important in Is- shoot” capability of the Arrow 3 dur- guided rockets to recently upgraded The Khorramshahr, however, re- The future architecture will build aerial vehicle (UAV) Airborne Early rael’s missile defense architecture. ing a series of test launches in Alaska MRBMs equipped with maneuvering flects both the current limits and on an existing Arrow Weapon System Warning System and SharpEye Radar Israeli sources offer no new informa- just ahead of a monthslong spike in reentry vehicles and potentially dis- steady improvement of Iran’s al- with several fielded elements, includ- for increased sensor range, early de- tion about potential upgrades, but regional tensions with Iran. persible submunitions. ready large ballistic missile arsenal. ing the Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 missiles, tection and enhanced raid size capac- the MDA, which is partly funding the In September, about two dozen Israel declared the Arrow 3 inter- Likewise, the launch in April of the Elisra Citron Tree battle management ity,” say budget justification documents Arrow program, provides some detail. Iranian unmanned aircraft systems ceptor operational in January 2017. IRGC’s first satellite—reportedly a system, IAI Hazelnut control center released by the U.S. Missile Defense “In addition, a new variant of Arrow (UAS) and missiles struck oil facili- By intention or coincidence, Israel’s cubesat—also reflects a step toward and Elta Systems Green Pine and Agency (MDA) in February. 2 (M6) interceptor will be developed,” ties in Saudi Arabia. The U.S. mili- declaration came a week before Iran longer-range and more sophisticated Super Green Pine radars. Since the In addition to fielding the Arrow 3 the MDA says, without elaborating. c

58 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 59 SPACE MEASURING UP > THE PANDEMIC TESTS THE SMALL SATELLITE INDUSTRY’S RESILIENCE AND RESOURCEFULNESS > ABOUT 600 SATELLITES LAUNCHED SO FAR IN 2020

Irene Klotz Cape Canaveral

alifornia startup Swarm Technologies was five days Dozens of smallsat companies away from launching its first commercial tranche of are operating in low Earth satellites when the COVID-19 pandemic prompted Eu- orbit. This view was taken by rope to shut down the Guiana Space Center in French NASA’s Dscovr satellite on C July 16, 2020, at a distance Guiana, grounding an Arianespace Vega rocket, its ride to orbit. of 983,900 mi. “We continually joke, ‘Man, if we real-time data previously provided by had just hit the [launch] button on commercial airlines. “There are sen- the way out,’” Swarm co-founder and sors on the planes that collect data on Chief Technology Officer Benjamin temperature, wind and humidity and Longmier tells Aviation Week. transmit it real-time to meteorological Swarm, along with 20 other custom- organizations around the world,” says ers sharing the Vega flight to orbit, are Johan Varghese, Spire’s product mar- still awaiting liftoff. Travel and work keting manager for aviation. restrictions eased in June, but then The data is used in computer mod- poor weather closed in on the South els that underpin accurate forecast- American spaceport, bumping launch ing. Now, with air traffic diminished to Aug. 17 to allow time to recharge by the pandemic, agencies are buying batteries in the rocket and payloads. satellite- based radio occultation data Launch delays are nothing new in from Spire. This data is gathered by the space industry, but the econom- analyzing signals from GPS and other ic and logistic challenges posed by navigation satellites as they cut through COVID-19 closures are giving startups the limb of Earth’s atmosphere, relative such as Swarm unplanned opportuni- to the Spire spacecraft’s lines of sight. ties to test their business acumen. The system can collect data from the “When we saw COVID turning up in ground up to 75 mi. China, the first thing we did as a team “This has been a good opportunity was buy a large set of parts for the for our technology to become kind of satellites and ground stations just to key and substitute for the lack of [air- have it in our lab, assuming that sup- craft] data,” says Varghese. ply chains were going to be disrupted, Other companies have not fared as delayed and even destroyed in some well. The biggest stumble came from cases,” Longmier says. “We spent a broadband satellite operator OneWeb, large amount of money on parts in an- which filed for Chapter 11 bankrupt- ticipation that we would need them.” cy protection on March 27, six days Payloads aboard the upcoming Vega after launching a batch of 34 space- proof-of-concept ride-share mission— craft into orbit. and the rocket’s first flight since a July The company’s primary backer, 2019 accident—include eight space- Tokyo-based Softbank, declined to craft owned by Spire Global, a data provide additional financing after its and analytics company that provides market value collapsed as the corona- meteorological data, ship and aircraft virus pandemic engulfed the planet. tracking and other services using 88 OneWeb is now in the process of be- spacecraft already in orbit. ing acquired by a consortium owned Spire has significantly scaled up by the UK government and Indian sales of weather data during the pan- telecommunications company Bharti demic, helping to fill a 75-90% gap in Global (AW&ST July 13-26, p. 70). The TOP: SPACEX. CENTER: NASA EPIC TEAM. BOTTOM: SPACEFLIGHT.

60 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST SPACE

plan remains subject to approvals, in- billion cash on its balance sheet—the cluding court confi rmation. Ottawa-based company plans to raise fi - OneWeb’s bankruptcy fi ling was fol- nancing through export credit agencies, MEASURING UP lowed in April with aspiring internet of including the U.S. Export-Import Bank. things startup Sky and Space Global “Governments right now are very THE PANDEMIC TESTS THE SMALL SATELLITE turning over control of the company to focused on restimulating their econ- > an accounting fi rm in Australia, where omies in the face of the economic INDUSTRY’S RESILIENCE AND RESOURCEFULNESS it is publicly listed. The procedure, carnage wrought by COVID,” says The rst batch of 60 Starlink known as “voluntary administration,” Goldberg. “Certainly, the export cred- is similar to a bankruptcy fi ling. it agencies, I believe, will be one of the > ABOUT 600 SATELLITES LAUNCHED SO FAR IN 2020 satellites were deployed into “We are seeing the impacts of the levers governments will pull to support orbit in May 2019. pandemic in some of the bankruptcies their domestic industries. Irene Klotz Cape Canaveral taking place,” says Manny Shar, head of “I think those agencies were always analytics at Bryce Space and Technol- going to be receptive to our project. ogy. “This is kind of a sign of the chal- It may well be the case that they’re alifornia startup Swarm Technologies was five days Dozens of smallsat companies lenging times that are taking place.” even more keen now, given that it’s a away from launching its first commercial tranche of are operating in low Earth While OneWeb regroups, competitor big project, it’s high-profi le, and it gen- satellites when the COVID-19 pandemic prompted Eu- orbit. This view was taken by SpaceX has continued launching satel- erates a lot of jobs for the suppliers,” NASA’s Dscovr satellite on lites for its global internet broadband he adds. rope to shut down the Guiana Space Center in French service, Starlink. Of the nearly 600 Private investment in space compa- C July 16, 2020, at a distance Guiana, grounding an Arianespace Vega rocket, its ride to orbit. spacecraft put into orbit this year— nies has been growing since 2015, with of 983,900 mi. already a record—418 were SpaceX a record $5.7 billion raised in 2019, ac- “We continually joke, ‘Man, if we real-time data previously provided by Starlinks. The satellites were launched cording to Bryce Space and Technology. had just hit the [launch] button on commercial airlines. “There are sen- in seven Falcon 9 fl ights, four of which “We’re probably not going to see the way out,’” Swarm co-founder and sors on the planes that collect data on occurred after the pandemic triggered anywhere near the numbers we saw Chief Technology Officer Benjamin temperature, wind and humidity and widespread shutdowns in the U.S. in 2019—that would be a surprise and Longmier tells Aviation Week. transmit it real-time to meteorological SpaceX plans to begin rolling out a shock if we do, but that’s probably Swarm, along with 20 other custom- organizations around the world,” says commercial internet service via not going to be the case,” says Shar. ers sharing the Vega flight to orbit, are Johan Varghese, Spire’s product mar- Starlink this fall. The initial con- “That’s not to say that [venture capital- still awaiting liftoff. Travel and work keting manager for aviation. stellation will consist of about 1,500 ists] have stopped investing. Obviously, restrictions eased in June, but then The data is used in computer mod- satellites, with plans to expand the they’re looking out for those compa- poor weather closed in on the South els that underpin accurate forecast- network to 4,400. The company has nies that are generating revenue and American spaceport, bumping launch ing. Now, with air traffic diminished approval from the U.S. Federal Com- perhaps are lower down on the risk to Aug. 17 to allow time to recharge by the pandemic, agencies are buying munications Commission to operate spectrum, particularly companies that batteries in the rocket and payloads. satellite- based radio occultation data 12,000 satellites. are stable with government revenue.” Launch delays are nothing new in from Spire. This data is gathered by So far, the pandemic is not delay- The top investment deals from April the space industry, but the econom- analyzing signals from GPS and other ing plans by longtime satellite opera- to June were: a $125 million Series M ic and logistic challenges posed by navigation satellites as they cut through tor Telesat to expand into low Earth round for SpaceX, $38 million Series COVID-19 closures are giving startups the limb of Earth’s atmosphere, relative orbit (LEO) with a new network. The B for China’s Commsat, $19 million such as Swarm unplanned opportuni- to the Spire spacecraft’s lines of sight. decision on the primary contractor— Series B for Australia’s Myriota, $14 ties to test their business acumen. The system can collect data from the essentially a two-way race between million Series A for China’s Space Pi- “When we saw COVID turning up in ground up to 75 mi. Thales Alenia Space and Airbus oneer, $10 million preseed round for China, the first thing we did as a team “This has been a good opportunity Defense and Space—is expected to be India’s Vestaspace Technology and $6 was buy a large set of parts for the for our technology to become kind of announced this year. million Series A for Japan’s PD Aero- satellites and ground stations just to key and substitute for the lack of [air- “These LEO constellations—if you space, according to an April-June 2020 Space ight in July have it in our lab, assuming that sup- craft] data,” says Varghese. get them right—I believe will be ab- quarterly report by Space Capital, an ply chains were going to be disrupted, Other companies have not fared as unveiled the Sherpa-FX solutely disruptive to the market,” early-stage venture capital fi rm. delayed and even destroyed in some well. The biggest stumble came from orbital transfer vehicle Telesat President and CEO Daniel “With [domestic] U.S. infrastruc- cases,” Longmier says. “We spent a broadband satellite operator OneWeb, to deploy smallsats on Goldberg tells Aviation Week. “We’re ture investment . . . declining 91% from large amount of money on parts in an- which filed for Chapter 11 bankrupt- ride-share missions. just plodding along, staying focused, [the fi rst quarter], we see a number of ticipation that we would need them.” cy protection on March 27, six days trying to execute on our plan and not international companies on the top Payloads aboard the upcoming Vega after launching a batch of 34 space- get too delayed.” investments list. In particular, two no- proof-of-concept ride-share mission— craft into orbit. The company has not yet secured table investments in China show signs and the rocket’s first flight since a July The company’s primary backer, all the funding it needs to build, that the country may be recovering 2019 accident—include eight space- Tokyo-based Softbank, declined to launch and operate the 300-member from COVID,” the report notes. craft owned by Spire Global, a data provide additional financing after its Telesat LEO constellation. But de- Overall, venture capital invest- and analytics company that provides market value collapsed as the corona- spite pandemic-triggered worldwide ment in space is up 4% for the fi rst six meteorological data, ship and aircraft virus pandemic engulfed the planet. recessions and economic instability, months of the year compared to the tracking and other services using 88 OneWeb is now in the process of be- Goldberg believes the multiple billions same period in 2019. “While the fi rst spacecraft already in orbit. ing acquired by a consortium owned of dollars needed to fi nance the proj- half of 2020 was overwhelmed by the Spire has significantly scaled up by the UK government and Indian ect will be available. COVID-19 pandemic, the significant sales of weather data during the pan- telecommunications company Bharti In addition to tapping its own deep momentum in the space economy con- demic, helping to fill a 75-90% gap in Global (AW&ST July 13-26, p. 70). The pockets—Telesat has more than $1 tinues,” the report concludes. c TOP: SPACEX. CENTER: NASA EPIC TEAM. BOTTOM: SPACEFLIGHT.

60 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 6 SPACE

Rocket Lab Electron “We lost the flight late into the mission,” Beck wrote on Falters on 13th Flight Twitter. “I am incredibly sorry that we failed to deliver our customers’ satellites today. Rest assured we will find the > FIRST INFLIGHT ANOMALY FOR ELECTRON issue, correct it and be back on the pad soon.” Rocket Lab declined to say if its contracts with customers > PREPARATIONS UNDERWAY FOR NEXT MISSION Spaceflight, Planet and British startup In-Space Missions, which were sharing the ride, include reflights. Irene Klotz Cape Canaveral “We are of course disappointed, while at the same time always aware that launch failures are part of the business of f there had to be a booster failure, best that it be of the space,” said Seattle-based Spaceflight, which had arranged nonexplosive, telemetry-rich variant such as what Rocket for the ride of an Earth-imaging satellite owned by Japan’s ILab, which has been delivering small satellites into orbit Canon Electronics. “We have faith in all our launch vehicles, since 2018, is now grappling with. including Electron, and look forward to many more success- “It’s a day you hope never comes,” Rocket Lab founder ful launches with them.” and CEO Peter Beck tells Aviation Week. “But unfortunately, Canon’s CE-SAT-1B was the largest of seven payloads lost in just about every rocket’s history, the day does come. We aboard the Electron. The 147-lb., cube-shaped spacecraft were well prepared for it. was designed to image objects on the ground as small as “The great thing—if there is a great thing—is that it was a about 3 ft., Canon says. Following launch of its tech demo very graceful failure. The vehicle is highly instrumented—we CE-SAT-1 in 2017, Canon announced plans to build a fleet of run up to 30,000 channels of data streaming—so that makes Earth-imagers based on its EOS 5D Mk. 3 camera. our lives much easier in tracking down the root cause. The accident also claimed five Earth-observation nano- satellites owned by San Francisco- based Planet. The shoebox-size spacecraft, known as SuperDoves,

ROCKET LAB ROCKET were advanced versions of Planet’s medium-resolution Dove satellites. The company operates a fleet of more than 120 Earth-observation satellites that provide daily images of Earth’s landmasses. “While it’s never the outcome that we hope for, the risk of launch failure is one Planet is always prepared for,” Planet said in a statement. Planet plans to launch 26 more SuperDoves on the upcoming launch of Arianespace’s Vega rocket and several more satellites on other The glowing nozzle of the Electron rocket’s second stage just before the video link boosters over the next 12 months. was lost following the launch on July 4. Making its space debut was In- Space Missions, based in Bordon, “I don’t want to speculate on root cause at this time. We England, which owned Faraday-1, a six-unit cubesat outfitted need to give the team the time to really work it out because with a variety of experimental payloads. there are always mitigating factors to the root cause, and “It really was a very cool little spacecraft,” In-Space you spend more time proving what it wasn’t than proving Missions wrote on Twitter. “Two years of hard work from what it was.” an incredibly committed group of brilliant engineers up in Rocket Lab’s 13th Electron rocket lifted off at 5:19 p.m. smoke.” EDT on July 4 from the company’s privately owned space- Faraday-1’s technology demonstrations included a soft- port on New Zealand’s Mahia Peninsula, aiming to put seven ware-defined radio from Airbus Defense and Space that satellites into 310-mi.-high sun-synchronous orbits. could be reprogrammed in orbit, 360-deg. optical video The nine liquid-fueled Rutherford engines powered the imaging, radio spectrum monitoring, applications for 55-ft.-tall booster for the first 2 min. 35 sec. of flight, then shut internet- linked machines and an assessment of an adaptive down as planned, allowing the spent first stage to separate. optics-corrected ground-based laser. In addition to Airbus, A single, vacuum-optimized Rutherford fired up 6 sec. Faraday-1 customers included Kleos Space, Lacuna Space, later for what was expected to be a 6-min. 21-sec. burn. the Space Environment Research Centre in Canberra, Aus- Rocket Lab’s live webcast lost video feed from the second tralia, Canadensys Aerospace and Aeternum. stage about 5 min. 40 sec. into the flight, but telemetry con- While the accident investigation is underway, Rocket tinued, showing a peak altitude of 121 mi. Lab is continuing with preparations to launch its next mis- Beck later said the anomaly occurred earlier than that, sion. “The rocket has a lot of heritage on it now,” Beck says. about 4 min. into flight, which was after the rocket shed “We’ve actually sent the next vehicle’s first-stage booster to its payload fairing and about 2.5 min. before a battery hot the launch site. There are teams working on [it] in parallel swap was to take place to power the second stage into orbit. with the investigation.” c

62 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST SPACE ASK THE Rocket Lab Electron hydrogen-burning turbine engines “We lost the flight late into the mission,” Beck wrote on EDITORS What Are the Airliner sized for takeoff and climb with an Falters on 13th Flight Twitter. “I am incredibly sorry that we failed to deliver our 11-megawatt fuel cell to generate the customers’ satellites today. Rest assured we will find the Fuel Storage Challenges bulk of power for cruise. > FIRST INFLIGHT ANOMALY FOR ELECTRON issue, correct it and be back on the pad soon.” Compared with current aircraft, Rocket Lab declined to say if its contracts with customers of Hydrogen Power? overall range would be about 25% > PREPARATIONS UNDERWAY FOR NEXT MISSION Spaceflight, Planet and British startup In-Space Missions, shorter, and design speed would be re- which were sharing the ride, include reflights. Aviation Week Senior Propulsion costs as much as 50% higher per pas- duced to about Mach 0.75, but carbon Irene Klotz Cape Canaveral “We are of course disappointed, while at the same time Editor Guy Norris responds: Hydrogen senger. For the longer term, however, it dioxide emissions would be zero while always aware that launch failures are part of the business of propulsion holds significant potential is possible that new volumetrically effi- overall climate impact would be 70- f there had to be a booster failure, best that it be of the space,” said Seattle-based Spaceflight, which had arranged to reduce climate impact in flight by cient airframe designs such as blended 80% less. Although cost per available nonexplosive, telemetry-rich variant such as what Rocket for the ride of an Earth-imaging satellite owned by Japan’s as much as 75% when used in engines wing body (BWB) configurations would seat-kilometer would be more than ILab, which has been delivering small satellites into orbit Canon Electronics. “We have faith in all our launch vehicles, for direct combustion and as much as enable hydrogen to be considered for 20% greater, this would be partially since 2018, is now grappling with. including Electron, and look forward to many more success- 90% when used in fuel cells to power future long-range applications. offset by better energy efficiency. “It’s a day you hope never comes,” Rocket Lab founder ful launches with them.” electrically driven hybrid engines or According to a recently published Revolutionary options, while still and CEO Peter Beck tells Aviation Week. “But unfortunately, Canon’s CE-SAT-1B was the largest of seven payloads lost including the addition of LH2 tanks in in just about every rocket’s history, the day does come. We aboard the Electron. The 147-lb., cube-shaped spacecraft the main fuselage, center on the devel- were well prepared for it. was designed to image objects on the ground as small as opment of fuel cells for commuter and “The great thing—if there is a great thing—is that it was a about 3 ft., Canon says. Following launch of its tech demo regional aircraft. These would power a very graceful failure. The vehicle is highly instrumented—we CE-SAT-1 in 2017, Canon announced plans to build a fleet of distributed propulsion system made up run up to 30,000 channels of data streaming—so that makes Earth-imagers based on its EOS 5D Mk. 3 camera. of electrically driven propulsors. How- our lives much easier in tracking down the root cause. The accident also claimed five Earth-observation nano- ever, this option would not meet the satellites owned by San Francisco- energy demands of medium- and long- based Planet. The shoebox-size range aircraft. Until BWB and other spacecraft, known as SuperDoves, alternative configurations become ROCKET LAB ROCKET were advanced versions of Planet’s available, the most realistic solutions medium-resolution Dove satellites. will continue to be evolutions of exist- The company operates a fleet of ing airframes. In these, large turbofan more than 120 Earth-observation engines would be adapted to burn LH2, satellites that provide daily images and extra fuel tanks would be con- of Earth’s landmasses. tained in extended fuselages. “While it’s never the outcome that The bottom line is that carrying an we hope for, the risk of launch fail- A320 or 737-800 passenger load in an ure is one Planet is always prepared A321- or 737-10-size fuselage may be for,” Planet said in a statement. economically and technically feasi- Planet plans to launch 26 more ble, but the scaling effects make this AW&ST ARCHIVE AW&ST SuperDoves on the upcoming increasingly challenging with larger launch of Arianespace’s Vega rocket The idea of hydrogen fuel is not new, as witnessed by Soviet-era flight tests airliners such as the A350 or 787. Fuel and several more satellites on other of the Tupolev Tu-155—a specially modified hydrogen- and natural gas-fueled tank technology, therefore, is a critical The glowing nozzle of the Electron rocket’s second stage just before the video link boosters over the next 12 months. Tu-154 variant pictured here in AW&ST (May 16, 1988, p. 62)—but new technol- pacing factor governing the speed and was lost following the launch on July 4. Making its space debut was In- ogies could potentially make it practical by the 2030s. extent to which hydrogen power will Space Missions, based in Bordon, be adopted. The McKinsey report indi- “I don’t want to speculate on root cause at this time. We England, which owned Faraday-1, a six-unit cubesat outfitted distributed propulsion systems. Al- independent review of hydrogen-pow- cates a 50% reduction will be necessary need to give the team the time to really work it out because with a variety of experimental payloads. though liquid hydrogen (LH2) has three ered aviation prepared by McKinsey in overall LH2 tank mass compared there are always mitigating factors to the root cause, and “It really was a very cool little spacecraft,” In-Space times the gravimetric energy density of & Co. for the European Union’s Clean with current prototypes. Measured you spend more time proving what it wasn’t than proving Missions wrote on Twitter. “Two years of hard work from jet fuel, it has a low volumetric density Sky 2 research initiative, developers in terms of a gravimetric index (the what it was.” an incredibly committed group of brilliant engineers up in (approximately 2.4 kWh/liter compared are considering multiple options to weight of LH2 fuel mass in relation to Rocket Lab’s 13th Electron rocket lifted off at 5:19 p.m. smoke.” with 10.4 kWh/liter for kerosene). This enable fast-tracking service entry of the full weight of a tank filled with max- EDT on July 4 from the company’s privately owned space- Faraday-1’s technology demonstrations included a soft- creates a huge challenge for aircraft de- hydrogen-powered aircraft so they imum LH2 load), a successful evolution- port on New Zealand’s Mahia Peninsula, aiming to put seven ware-defined radio from Airbus Defense and Space that signers because hydrogen fuel will re- could have a material impact on the ary short-range airliner will require an satellites into 310-mi.-high sun-synchronous orbits. could be reprogrammed in orbit, 360-deg. optical video quire about four times the volume of jet climate before 2050. The initial evolu- index of 35% while long-range aircraft The nine liquid-fueled Rutherford engines powered the imaging, radio spectrum monitoring, applications for fuel to carry the same onboard energy. tionary option is to develop versions will require 38%. Only improvements of 55-ft.-tall booster for the first 2 min. 35 sec. of flight, then shut internet- linked machines and an assessment of an adaptive Even assuming lightweight tanks of current tube-and-wing designs in this scale, the report argues, will allow down as planned, allowing the spent first stage to separate. optics-corrected ground-based laser. In addition to Airbus, can be developed, the volumetric den- which engines and fuel systems are weight and volume to be reduced to the A single, vacuum-optimized Rutherford fired up 6 sec. Faraday-1 customers included Kleos Space, Lacuna Space, sity issue means hydrogen propulsion adapted to run on LH2. point at which these concepts become later for what was expected to be a 6-min. 21-sec. burn. the Space Environment Research Centre in Canberra, Aus- will—at least for the near to mid- For an Airbus A320/Boeing 737-size operationally practical. c Rocket Lab’s live webcast lost video feed from the second tralia, Canadensys Aerospace and Aeternum. term—be best suited to smaller region- aircraft flying on typical ranges up to stage about 5 min. 40 sec. into the flight, but telemetry con- While the accident investigation is underway, Rocket al, short- and medium-range aircraft. 1,100 nm (2,000 km), for example, the The Aviation Week Network invites tinued, showing a peak altitude of 121 mi. Lab is continuing with preparations to launch its next mis- Although hydrogen fuel is technically issue of fuel volume would be handled readers to submit questions to our Beck later said the anomaly occurred earlier than that, sion. “The rocket has a lot of heritage on it now,” Beck says. feasible for use in longer-range aircraft, by stretching the fuselage to accom- editors. Answers are published online about 4 min. into flight, which was after the rocket shed “We’ve actually sent the next vehicle’s first-stage booster to the size of the fuel tanks would result modate LH2 tanks behind the passen- at AviationWeek.com. To access our its payload fairing and about 2.5 min. before a battery hot the launch site. There are teams working on [it] in parallel in much longer or larger fuselages and ger cabin. Power would be provided answer archive or post a new question, swap was to take place to power the second stage into orbit. with the investigation.” c greater energy demand, resulting in by a hybrid system that combines go to: AviationWeek.com/asktheeditors

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A Flight Plan for the COVID Recovery By Stephen Timm KARIM SAHIB/AFP/GETTY IMAGES he industry we love is hurting. Not long ago, airports were packed, airplanes were full, Tand a record number of passenger miles were logged. Commercial air transport was not just strong, it was thriving. At its peak, our sector supports 65.5 million jobs and $2.7 trillion in global economic activity. But in the COVID-19 pandemic, commercial traffic has been down as much as 90%. With regions around the world in varying stages of recovery—and some still regressing—stops and A VIRTUAL EVENT starts to overall air travel are to be expected. The reality is that this recovery will take years, SEPTEMBER 15-16, 2020 not months. The pandemic is affecting the world’s 14:30 CET / 8:30 EDT health and the global economy—and these two things are inextricably linked. The actions commercial aviation is taking right now will determine how strong it will be when this pandemic is behind us. I Designed for Leaders and Decision-makers from OEMs am encouraged because companies across our industry are shifting from being competitors and cus- to Suppliers in the Commercial Aviation Suppliers Industry tomers to becoming collaborators with one shared mandating face coverings for crew and passengers. mission. Together, we must take control of the health We must also drive a consistent passenger experi- 21st Annual Commercial Aviation and safety measures we put in place in airports and on ence. The confidence this information can instill could SpeedNews is pleased to present its Topics focus on key components driving the industry: airplanes, just as we are doing in our own companies. be shaken if flyers don’t see similar technologies and Industry Suppliers Conference – Europe. procedures when traveling through major airports Supply chain trends and the future landscape While COVID-19 makes it unsafe for us to gather face-to-face, we want to and with different airlines. As an industry, we de- Raw materials and manufacturers supply chain make sure you and your organization can receive up-to-date information. BEING ADAPTABLE IS CRUCIAL; WE NEED termine what we do in airports and on airplanes, Managing supplier risks and investments and together we can define and implement the In fact, the current state of our environment makes digital transformation OEM product strategy and market playbook that creates greater consistency. even more imperative for all of us! developments TO INTEGRATE ADVANCES QUICKLY. Being adaptable in the short term is crucial. Aircraft production and delivery forecasts Once additional layers of protection are ready, This virtual event will provide delegates — equipment manufacturers, such as robust testing before flights, we need to Market and technology drivers from the material suppliers, aviation industry analysts, financial institutions, and OEM perspective integrate those advances quickly. marketing executives — with important updates about the commercial The commercial aviation industry needs an interasso- Long Term. Airports, airlines, suppliers, medical ex- Who benefits from attending? ciation, interagency approach, including active participa- perts and government agencies must unite to create a aviation industry. Aircraft and engine manufacturers will present status Strategic planning, marketing executives tion from government. This is vital, because government change that is experienced curb to curb—from airport reports on product strategies and market developments. Industry plays a role in the commercial aviation system, along with arrival through boarding and the flight itself to the des- and business development leaders experts will present production and delivery forecasts and review the manufacturers, airlines and airports. A joint government/ tination airport exit. Supply chain executives and senior industry-led task force will provide the momentum and Redesigning terminals, increasing the use of biomet- current environment and economic status of the industry. Supply chain decision makers expertise needed to restore confidence in air travel. rics, conducting health screenings and contact tracing, management, industry restructuring, maintenance and subcontractor Equipment OEMs, sub-tier manufacturers, material and parts suppliers What steps are needed? To jump-start our industry, we adding touch-free solutions and introducing antimicro- issues will also be addressed. must educate the public that safety measures are in place bial surfaces and UV disinfectant systems are bold and Industry analysts today. We need to create an ongoing, consistent experi- long-lasting ideas being discussed across our industry. Lessors and financial community members WHICH FORMAT IS BETTER FOR… ence for those flying anywhere in the world. This can be Bringing them to life will create a modern journey that Economic development executives accomplished by layering in additional safety measures and keeps people even more protected. A better return on Learning about Learning about trends messaging in two phases: short term and long term. And we need these systems in place while the time invested specific topics in the industry Short Term. It is vital to bolster passenger confidence COVID-19 vaccine is being developed—and even after it Sponsorships by telling travelers what to expect at the airport and is being administered—to make commercial aviation less Sponsorships enable you to promote your brand, in the air. We may know the measures in place, but we susceptible to a threat of this magnitude. products and/or services on the expansive Aviation Week Network, and on-site throughout the need to tell those who are ready to fly—and keep tell- Changes of this scope will take time—and it won’t be Conference. Customized sponsorships are also ing them. At many airports, biometric systems enable the work of one person, one company or one sector of our available. The earlier you begin your Sponsorship, faster, touchless screening and check-in. Physical dis- industry. The work being done by the Aerospace Indus- the more valuable it is! The Aviation Week Network averages more than two million page views per tancing is enforced in lines and waiting areas with signs, tries Association and Airlines for America are great ex- month — that’s millions of potential views of your floor markers and barriers. Everyone can now take up amples. We must also think globally. Our collective voice logo if you start today! To become a Sponsor contact Joanna Speed, Managing Director, to 12 oz. of hand sanitizer through TSA security check- and expertise will determine our destiny. VIRTUAL EQUAL PHYSICAL Source: Informa Customer Research – Digital Events points to stay vigilant with hand hygiene. It will take all of us to keep the industry we love up and A&D Conferences at +1-310-857-7691. On airplanes, HEPA air filtration systems remove running long-term. And I believe we will do it. c 99.99% of particles, including viruses. Many airlines Register and Learn More at: are sanitizing before, during and after every flight and Stephen Timm is president of Collins Aerospace. 2901 28th Street, Suite 100 • Santa Monica, CA 90405, USA Conf.Events/ACE Tel: +1-310-857-7691 • Email: [email protected] 66 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/JULY 27-AUGUST 16, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST When the threat is always changing, we’ll keep you one step ahead.

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