Soviet Intelligence and the Cold War: the ‘Small’ Committee of Information, 1952- 53”
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Covert Action to Prevent Realignment by Cullen Gifford Nutt
Sooner Is Better: Covert Action to Prevent Realignment by Cullen Gifford Nutt September 2019 ABSTRACT Why do states intervene covertly in some places and not others? This is a pressing question for theorists and policymakers because covert action is widespread, costly, and consequential. I argue that states wield it—whether by supporting political parties, arming dissidents, sponsoring coups, or assassinating leaders—when they fear that a target is at risk of shifting its alignment toward the state that the intervener considers most threatening. Covert action is a rational response to the threat of realignment. Interveners correctly recognize a window of opportunity: Owing to its circumscribed nature, covert action is more likely to be effective before realignment than after. This means that acting sooner is better. I test this argument in case studies of covert action decision-making by the United States in Indonesia, Iraq, and Portugal. I then conduct a test of the theory’s power in a medium-N analysis of 97 cases of serious consideration of such action by the United States during the Cold War. Interveners, I suggest, do not employ covert action as a result of bias on the part of intelligence agencies. Nor do they use it to add to their power. Rather, states act covertly when they fear international realignment. 1 Chapter 1: Introduction 1. The Puzzle and Its Importance In April 1974, military officers in Portugal overthrew a right-wing dictatorship. A caretaker government under a conservative officer, Antonio Spínola, set elections for March of 1975. But Spínola resigned at the end of September, frustrated with menacing opposition from the left. -
Massive Retaliation Charles Wilson, Neil Mcelroy, and Thomas Gates 1953-1961
Evolution of the Secretary of Defense in the Era of MassiveSEPTEMBER Retaliation 2012 Evolution of the Secretary OF Defense IN THE ERA OF Massive Retaliation Charles Wilson, Neil McElroy, and Thomas Gates 1953-1961 Special Study 3 Historical Office Office of the Secretary of Defense Cold War Foreign Policy Series • Special Study 3 Evolution of the Secretary of Defense in the Era of Massive Retaliation Evolution of the Secretary of Defense in the Era of Massive Retaliation Charles Wilson, Neil McElroy, and Thomas Gates 1953-1961 Cover Photos: Charles Wilson, Neil McElroy, Thomas Gates, Jr. Source: Official DoD Photo Library, used with permission. Cover Design: OSD Graphics, Pentagon. Cold War Foreign Policy Series • Special Study 3 Evolution of the Secretary of Defense in the Era of Massive Retaliation Evolution of the Secretary OF Defense IN THE ERA OF Massive Retaliation Charles Wilson, Neil McElroy, and Thomas Gates 1953-1961 Special Study 3 Series Editors Erin R. Mahan, Ph.D. Chief Historian, Office of the Secretary of Defense Jeffrey A. Larsen, Ph.D. President, Larsen Consulting Group Historical Office Office of the Secretary of Defense September 2012 ii iii Cold War Foreign Policy Series • Special Study 3 Evolution of the Secretary of Defense in the Era of Massive Retaliation Contents Opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied within are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Department of Defense, the Historical Office of the Office of Foreword..........................................vii the Secretary of Defense, Larsen Consulting Group, or any other agency of the Federal Government. Executive Summary...................................ix Cleared for public release; distribution unlimited. -
Surprise, Security, and the American Experience Jan Van Tol
Naval War College Review Volume 58 Article 11 Number 4 Autumn 2005 Surprise, Security, and the American Experience Jan van Tol John Lewis Gaddis Follow this and additional works at: https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/nwc-review Recommended Citation van Tol, Jan and Gaddis, John Lewis (2005) "Surprise, Security, and the American Experience," Naval War College Review: Vol. 58 : No. 4 , Article 11. Available at: https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/nwc-review/vol58/iss4/11 This Book Review is brought to you for free and open access by the Journals at U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Naval War College Review by an authorized editor of U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Color profile: Disabled Composite Default screen van Tol and Gaddis: Surprise, Security, and the American Experience BOOK REVIEWS HOW COMFORTABLE WILL OUR DESCENDENTS BE WITH THE CHOICES WE’VE MADE TODAY? Gaddis, John Lewis. Surprise, Security, and the American Experience. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard Univ. Press, 2004. 150pp. $18.95 John Lewis Gaddis is the Robert A. U.S. history, American assumptions Lovell Professor of History at Yale Uni- about national security were shattered versity and one of the preeminent his- by surprise attack, and each time U.S. torians of American, particularly Cold grand strategy profoundly changed as a War, security policy. Surprise, Security, result. and the American Experience is based on After the British attack on Washington, a series of lectures given by the author D.C., in 1814, John Quincy Adams as in 2002 addressing the implications for secretary of state articulated three prin- American security after the 11 Septem- ciples to secure the American homeland ber attacks. -
Inside Russia's Intelligence Agencies
EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN BRIEF POLICY RELATIONS ecfr.eu PUTIN’S HYDRA: INSIDE RUSSIA’S INTELLIGENCE SERVICES Mark Galeotti For his birthday in 2014, Russian President Vladimir Putin was treated to an exhibition of faux Greek friezes showing SUMMARY him in the guise of Hercules. In one, he was slaying the • Russia’s intelligence agencies are engaged in an “hydra of sanctions”.1 active and aggressive campaign in support of the Kremlin’s wider geopolitical agenda. The image of the hydra – a voracious and vicious multi- headed beast, guided by a single mind, and which grows • As well as espionage, Moscow’s “special services” new heads as soon as one is lopped off – crops up frequently conduct active measures aimed at subverting in discussions of Russia’s intelligence and security services. and destabilising European governments, Murdered dissident Alexander Litvinenko and his co-author operations in support of Russian economic Yuri Felshtinsky wrote of the way “the old KGB, like some interests, and attacks on political enemies. multi-headed hydra, split into four new structures” after 1991.2 More recently, a British counterintelligence officer • Moscow has developed an array of overlapping described Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) as and competitive security and spy services. The a hydra because of the way that, for every plot foiled or aim is to encourage risk-taking and multiple operative expelled, more quickly appear. sources, but it also leads to turf wars and a tendency to play to Kremlin prejudices. The West finds itself in a new “hot peace” in which many consider Russia not just as an irritant or challenge, but • While much useful intelligence is collected, as an outright threat. -
The Fifth User January 28
UNCLASSIFIED The Fifth User January 28 Project VENONA is now well known publicly. VENONA refers to Soviet espionage messages that were solved in part or in whole by the U.S. cryptologic services. The Soviet cryptosystem was based on a one-time pad that was misused, and therefore vulnerable to American cryptanalysts. The cryptosystem was used by the USSR’s diplomatic service and its office for acquiring lend-lease equipment from the United States during World War II. This Soviet system was in use from 1941 to 1945, but was not solved until the late 1940s, after the war, and the most usable product based on the decrypts was issued in the 1950s. In addition, the cryptosystem was used by the espionage organization best known as the KGB. When people think of VENONA decrypts, they most often mean KGB communications. However, there were other users of the flawed system. The fifth user of the cryptosystem was known in English as GRU-Naval. Its communications referred to espionage operations controlled by the Naval Intelligence headquarters in Moscow. The senior representative in the U.S. was Captain, later Commodore, I. A. Egorichev, the USSR’s naval attaché in Washington. During his career he had commanded a destroyer in the Soviet’s Baltic fleet, and had served as naval attaché in Tokyo. In addition to legal duties in his overt position, Captain Egorichev conducted intelligence activities against the United States. The GRU-Naval cryptosystem worked in the same way the KGB and GRU systems did. Message text was encoded into numbers from a codebook, then the numbers were superenciphered with numbers from a one-time pad. -
How Should the United States Confront Soviet Communist Expansionism? DWIGHT D
Advise the President: DWIGHT D. EISENHOWER How Should the United States Confront Soviet Communist Expansionism? DWIGHT D. EISENHOWER Advise the President: DWIGHT D. EISENHOWER Place: The Oval Office, the White House Time: May 1953 The President is in the early months of his first term and he recognizes Soviet military aggression and the How Should the subsequent spread of Communism as the greatest threat to the security of the nation. However, the current costs United States of fighting Communism are skyrocketing, presenting a Confront Soviet significant threat to the nation’s economic well-being. President Eisenhower is concerned that the costs are not Communist sustainable over the long term but he believes that the spread of Communism must be stopped. Expansionism? On May 8, 1953, President Dwight D. Eisenhower has called a meeting in the Solarium of the White House with Secretary of State John Foster Dulles and Treasury Secretary George M. Humphrey. The President believes that the best way to craft a national policy in a democracy is to bring people together to assess the options. In this meeting the President makes a proposal based on his personal decision-making process—one that is grounded in exhaustive fact gathering, an open airing of the full range of viewpoints, and his faith in the clarifying qualities of energetic debate. Why not, he suggests, bring together teams of “bright young fellows,” charged with the mission to fully vet all viable policy alternatives? He envisions a culminating presentation in which each team will vigorously advocate for a particular option before the National Security Council. -
John Foster Dulles and the Federal Council Of
JOHN FOSTER DULLES AND THE FEDERAL COUNCIL OF CHURCHES, 1937-1949 DISSERTATION Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements of the Degree Doctor of Philosophy in the Graduate School of The Ohio State University by Albert N. Keim, B.A., M.A. ******* The Ohio State University 1971 Approved by Adviser Department of History ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I am indebted to Dr. Constant H. Jacquet, Jr., Director of the Research Library of the National Council of Churches, for giving me access to the National Council of Churches Archives. I am grateful for the assistance rendered by Mrs. Wanda M. Randall, Assistant to the Curator of Manuscripts, during my research in the Dulles Papers at Princeton University Library. Dr. Georgia Harkness, Dr. Roswell P. Barnes, and Dr. Samuel McCrea Cavert all provided valuable advice at various stages of the project. My adviser, Dr. Robert H. Bremner, gave unfailing counsel at every stage of the work, I owe a special debt to my wife, Leanna, who loyally supported the project from beginning to end. VITA October 31, 1935 Born - Uniontown, Ohio 1963 ........... B.A., Eastern Mennonite College, Harrisonburg, Virginia 1965 M.A., University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia 1965-1969 Instructor, Eastern Mennonite College, Harrisonburg, Virginia 1969-1970 Teaching Associate, Department of History, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio 1970-1971 Dissertation Year Fellow, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio FIELDS OF STUDY Major Field: History Social History of the United States Since 1900. Professor Robert H. Bremner Political History of the United States Since 1900. Professor K. Austin Kerr Political and Social History of the United States, 1850-1900. -
HPSCI Testimony – Steve Hall I'm Happy to Be with You Here Today To
HPSCI Testimony – Steve Hall I’m happy to be with you here today to share my thoughts on Vladimir Putin’s Russia, gleaned from working in the CIA’s Clandestine Service for over 30 years. During my time at CIA, from when I started out as a line case officer through when I retired in 2015 as a member of the Senior Intelligence Service, most of my time and efforts were focused on Russia. I retired as the Chief of Central Eurasia Division, responsible for managing CIA’s Russian operations worldwide. I am not a trained Russian historian, nor am I an analyst. Rather, my views on Putin’s Russia come from my experiences as a former intelligence officer, and I believe this is an important perspective. Here’s why. I am often asked for my thoughts on who Putin really is, what makes him tick, how he thinks, is he really that much of a threat. My best response is that Vladimir Putin is first and foremost a Chekist, whose primary goal is the weakening of democracy in the United States and the West. The Cheka was the Lenin-era secret police, the precursor to the KGB – of which Putin was a member – as well as to the modern day Russian intelligence services. It was the Cheka and its successors that built and ran the Soviet system of concentration camps, the Gulag. It was the Cheka that executed thousands of its own citizens in the basement of the Lubyanka, its headquarters in Moscow. The history of the Russian intelligence services is one of unalloyed brutality. -
February 21, 2010 Transcript
© 2010, CBS Broadcasting Inc. All Rights Reserved. PLEASE CREDIT ANY QUOTES OR EXCERPTS FROM THIS CBS TELEVISION PROGRAM TO "CBS NEWS' FACE THE NATION." February 21, 2010 Transcript GUEST: GEN. COLIN POWELL Former Secretary of State MODERATOR/ HOST: Mr. BOB SCHIEFFER CBS News This is a rush transcript provided for the information and convenience of the press. Accuracy is not guaranteed. In case of doubt, please check with FACE THE NATION - CBS NEWS (202) 457-4481 TRANSCRIPT BOB SCHIEFFER: Today on FACE THE NATION, an exclusive interview with Colin Powell. He holds a unique place in American life: soldier, diplomat, advisor to both Republican and Democratic Presidents. What does he make of the Washington gridlock? Does he think the system is broken? What would he do to fix it? We'll ask him. Then I'll have a personal thought on why Washington doesn't listen, or does it? It's all next on FACE THE NATION. ANNOUNCER: FACE THE NATION with CBS News chief Washington correspondent Bob Schieffer. And now, from CBS News in Washington, Bob Schieffer. BOB SCHIEFFER: And good morning again. The former secretary of state, the former chairman of the joint chiefs is in the studio with us this morning. General, you do bring a unique perspective to this. You're a Republican but you have held high- level positions under both Republicans and Democrats. And when you announced that you were voting for Barack Obama in 2008, it really got the nation's attention. Here's part of what you said. COLIN POWELL (Former Secretary of State) (Meet the Press, October 19, 2008): Because of his ability to inspire, because of the inclusive nature of his campaign, because he is reaching out all across America, he has both style and substance, he has met the standard of being a successful President, being an exceptional President. -
BURTON I. KAUFMAN (Blacksburg, VA, USA)
BURTON I. KAUFMAN (Blacksburg, VA, USA) INTRODUCTION: THE WORLD REMAINS A DANGEROUS PLACE Most politica! analysts agree that the Cold War ended in 1989, when revolutions in Poland and Hungary quickly spread to other East Eu- ropean countries, toppling existing Communist regimes and shattering the Iron Curtain that had divided Eastern and Western Europe for almost forty-five years. Much of the credit for these developments has been given to Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, who promoted economic and political liberalization in the Soviet Union through his policies of pe;e- s,rolka and glasnost', restricted the use of Soviet military power to main- tain Soviet hegemonic control over Eastern Europe and sought new and fruitful openings to the West. In 1992, of course, these same liberal poli- cies led to the disintegration of the Soviet Union itself, following an un- successful coup against Gorbachev. In a fine history on the end of the Cold War, Washington Post re- porter Don Oberdorfer has also attributed considerable credit to Presi- dent Ronald Reagan. Believing when he took office in 1981 that the So- viet Union was an "evil empire" (the term he used in a 1983 speech), Reagan was nevertheless anxious to ease tensions between Washington and Moscow. Determined to strengthen America's military posture, he was unalterably committed to his.Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI or "Star Wars"), despite Gorbachev's equatty resolute opposition to it. Throughout most of Reagan's administration, in fact, SDI remained the major impedi- ment to a Soviet-American disarmament agreement. in the end, however, the Soviets realized they could not afford the costs of competing with the United States in the development of sophisticated and enormously expensive military technology. -
Cold War Triumphalism and the Reagan Factor
Cold War Triumphalism and the Reagan Factor Onur İŞÇİ* Abstract Key Words Three decades after Gorbachev’s 1986 Cold War Triumphalism, Reagan Victory Glasnost campaign, the sudden death of School, US-Soviet Confrontation, Demise of the the Soviet Union still continues to keep USSR, Mikhail Gorbachev. diplomatic historians busy with its momentous implications. The mutually excluding political realms of the Cold War forged a conservative In 1986 the Union of Soviet Socialist American historical discourse, which perceived the Soviet Union as an evil empire. Existing Republics finally became the toast of biases against Moscow continued after the American diplomats, who believed Soviet collapse and were conjured up in a new that global harmony was a step closer. scholarly genre that might properly be termed as After four decades of superpower “the Reagan Victory School”. The adherents of conflict, the new Russia was seen as a this school suggest that President Reagan’s resolve and unsophisticated yet faithfully pragmatic long lost friend that reemerged from its foreign policy designs – the Strategic Defense ashes, promising to adopt democracy Initiative (SDI) in particular – became the and a liberal market economy. Mikhail major factor behind the Soviet Union’s demise Gorbachev’s Glasnost and Perestroika and America’s “triumph” after the Cold War. signaled the end of a modern period Looking at several influential monographs on the subject, this paper seeks to demonstrate the in history that had been economically well nuanced yet often mono-causal notions and politically exhausting for virtually vocalized by American scholars of Cold War the whole world. Faced with a serious triumphalism. -
Kissinger's World: a Cautionary Tale Through a Cold War Lens Book Review*
Kissinger's World: A Cautionary Tale Through a Cold War Lens Book Review* MICHAEL J. KELLY** Henry Kissinger, former National Security Advisor and Secretary of State in the Nixon and Ford administrations, Nobel Peace Laureate, co- Man of the Year for Time Magazine, and widely regarded "dean of American foreign policy" is an eloquent writer. He is persuasive, avuncular, and sometimes grandiose. His internal logic is mostly consistent and coherent. He is perhaps one of the greatest diplomats of his generation. Henry Kissinger is also a man of the Cold War generation. This book reflects his latest attempt to bring meaning to the multipolar world that has emerged around him, but it equally reflects his more general inability to do so, as he continues to cling to notions of unipolarity with America at the center. An unfortunate theme is Kissinger's predictable distraction by geopolitical and geostrategic considerations that enjoyed more relevance during his tenure in office than today. Does America Need a Foreign Policy? is clearly a rhetorical title intended to stir interest in what Dr. Kissinger rightly perceives as waning American concern for international affairs. This book is designed to offer a general stock-taking of our current situation in the world as we move into the 21st century-hence the subtitle, Toward a Diplomacyfor the 21st Century. While the book does not neatly outline a comprehensive new foreign policy, package it with all the trimmings and deliver it to Secretary of State Powell for immediate implementation, it does create a * Henry Kissinger, Does America Need a Foreign Policy (Simon & Schuster 2001).