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INDIA March 23, 2021 BSE Sensex: 49771 Power Equity Research INDIA March 23, 2021 BSE Sensex: 49771 Power ICICI Securities Limited is the author and RE bids: Coal India marks entry in solar; NTPC remains distributor of this report competitive; JSW Energy wins big in wind In the latest round of auctions conducted by GUVNL (Gujarat discom) to set up 500MW Sector update grid-connected solar PV projects, Coal India (CIL) made a surprise entry. Out of nine participants, the winners included NTPC, Sprng Energy, CIL and Tata Power Saurya quoting Rs2.2/kWh for a cumulative total of 430MW, and SJVN quoting Rs2.21/kWh for Utilities 70MW. With CIL’s entry in the renewables auction space, the competitive environment around bids, especially those conducted by financially sound discoms, is expected to heat up further. The latest bids witnessed higher tariff compared to the historic low of Rs1.99/kWh reached during GUVNL’s bids in Dec’20, due to increase in module / panel as well as commodity prices. Further, in the recent SECI-conducted wind auctions, JSW Energy won LoA for 450MW at Rs2.78/kWh and Adani Green for 300MW at Rs2.77/kWh. We remain positive on NTPC and CIL. GUVNL’s solar auction witnesses large participation: Five developers were declared successful in the latest round of bidding conducted by GUVNL for its 500MW Phase XII grid-connected solar PV projects in Gujarat: Sprng Energy (120MW at Rs2.2/kWh), NTPC (150MW at Rs2.2/kWh), Coal India (100MW at Rs2.2/kWh), Tata Power Saurya (60MW at Rs2.2/kWh) and SJVN (70MW at Rs2.21/kWh). Other participants included Aljomiah Energy, Ayana, Renew, and Juniper Green. Tariff increases due to levy of BCD on module imports from Apr’22 and higher commodity prices: In order to scale up domestic manufacturing and reduce India’s dependence on imports, MNRE’s proposal to impose 40% basic customs duty (BCD) on imported solar modules and 25% BCD on solar cells w.e.f. 1st Apr’22 (without grandfathering bid-out projects till 9th Mar’21) was accepted by the ministry of finance. The impact of this development on module pricing by suppliers, as well as the recent rally in metal prices globally, has resulted in 10% rise in solar tariffs, which had hit the lows of Rs1.99/kWh during GUVNL’s Dec’20 auctions. Wind bidding restarts after SECI successfully conducts 1.2GW auctions; JSWEL wins big: JSW Future Energy, a wholly-owned subsidiary of JSW Energy, has received LoA to set up 450MW wind capacity in SECI’s 1,200MW ISTS-connected wind power projects (tranche-X). The cost of the project is estimated at Rs25bn-26bn at an expected IRR of ~13%. JSW’s bid at Rs2.78/kWh was among the four successful bids, the other three being: Adani Renewables at Rs2.77/kWh for 300MW, Ayana RE (300MW) and Evergreen Power Mauritius (150MW) at Rs2.78/kWh. PPA is in progress with Rajasthan. NTPC’s strength continues to aid its competitiveness: With the latest success, NTPC has won 1,510MW of solar bids in FY21 – 350MW in Gujarat, 470MW in Rajasthan, 90MW in Kerala, and 600MW in Andhra Pradesh (currently stayed by HC). It has also signed MoUs with five states for setting up 17GW at UMREPPs [Gujarat (4.75GW) and Maharashtra (2.64GW) already signed]. NTPC’s balance sheet strength continues to drive its competitiveness in RE bids. CIL’s entry marks its stated decarbonisation intent; may compete on a similar scale as NTPC: During recent investor interactions, CIL indicated its intent to diversify with an aim at decarbonisation. With this foray, CIL has converted its intent into action. Further, with similar balance sheet strength to NTPC, CIL is expected to be a strong competitor in Research Analysts: solar auctions going forward. RE space to heat up further: We expect the 5GW IREDA CPSU scheme auctions to be Rahul Modi conducted before the end of Mar’21. The Standing Committee on Energy in its 17th report [email protected] +91 22 6637 7373 on ‘Action Plan for Achievement of 175 GW Renewable Energy Target' submitted to the Anshuman Ashit Lok Sabha on 19th Mar’21 has asked MNRE to work on mission mode to achieve the [email protected] target successfully and made several recommendations to achieve the same. We expect +91 22 6637 7419 this to stir up and expedite the RE auction landscape in the near term. Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report Power, March 23, 2021 ICICI Securities Price charts Coal India NTPC JSW Energy 350 170 105 300 150 85 250 130 65 (Rs) (Rs) 200 (Rs.) 110 45 150 90 100 70 25 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Sep-18 Sep-19 Sep-20 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Sep-18 Sep-19 Sep-20 Sep-18 Sep-19 Sep-20 Source: Bloomberg 2 Power, March 23, 2021 ICICI Securities In case of industry/sector reports or a report containing multiple stocks, the rating/recommendation for a particular stock may be based on the last released stock specific report for that company. This report may be distributed in Singapore by ICICI Securities, Inc. (Singapore branch). Any recipients of this report in Singapore should contact ICICI Securities, Inc. (Singapore branch) in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this report. The contact details of ICICI Securities, Inc. (Singapore branch) are as follows: Address: 10 Collyer Quay, #40-92 Ocean Financial Tower, Singapore - 049315, Tel: +65 6232 2451 and email: [email protected], [email protected]. "In case of eligible investors based in Japan, charges for brokerage services on execution of transactions do not in substance constitute charge for research reports and no charges are levied for providing research reports to such investors." New I-Sec investment ratings (all ratings based on absolute return; All ratings and target price refers to 12-month performance horizon, unless mentioned otherwise) BUY: >15% return; ADD: 5% to 15% return; HOLD: Negative 5% to Positive 5% return; REDUCE: Negative 5% to Negative 15% return; SELL: < negative 15% return ANALYST CERTIFICATION I/We, Rahul Modi, Masters in Finance; Anshuman Ashit, BE, PGDM; authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Analysts are not registered as research analysts by FINRA and are not associated persons of the ICICI Securities Inc. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report. Terms & conditions and other disclosures: ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products. ICICI Securities is Sebi registered stock broker, merchant banker, investment adviser, portfolio manager and Research Analyst. ICICI Securities is registered with Insurance Regulatory Development Authority of India Limited (IRDAI) as a composite corporate agent and with PFRDA as a Point of Presence. ICICI Securities Limited Research Analyst SEBI Registration Number – INH000000990. ICICI Securities Limited SEBI Registration is INZ000183631 for stock broker. 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