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Financial Appraisal of Wine Producing Private Firm Abkhazian Drinks and Co

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Financial Appraisal of Wine Producing Private Firm Abkhazian Drinks and Co Financial Appraisal of Wine Producing Private Firm Abkhazian Drinks and Co. in Abkhazia Madina Marshaniya Submitted to the Institute of Graduate Studies and Research in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Banking and Finance Eastern Mediterranean University February 2016 Gazimağusa, North Cyprus Approval of the Institute of Graduate Studies and Research Prof. Dr. Cem Tanova Acting Director I certify that this thesis satisfies the requirements as a thesis for the degree of Master of Science in Banking and Finance. Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nesrin Özataç Chair, Department of Banking and Finance We certify that we have read this thesis and that in our opinion it is fully adequate in scope and quality as a thesis for the degree of Master of Science in Banking and Finance. Asst. Prof. Dr. Hasan U. Altiok Supervisor Examining Committee 1. Prof. Dr. Hatice Jenkins 2. Prof. Dr. Glenn Jenkins 3. Asst. Prof. Dr. Hassan U. Altiok ABSTRACT The Financial analysis is a process of evaluating projects, businesses, budgets etc. to determine their suitability for investment. Financial Analysis helps to determine whether the project is financially viable or sustainable. There are several reasons to conduct financial analysis. One of the reasons chosen to conduct this research study is to evaluate the risk of an investment or determine if a firm has the ability to repay a loan, since when people and lending institutions are putting capital at risk they need to be able to determine the level of risk and probability of return of their actions. The study was also done in order to assess the viability of the project, with the help of analysis to figure out whether the project is the “good” project, identify whether investment in this project will make the equity holders better off, and increase their wealth. The aim of the company is to deliver the wines to the market, distribute the wines to the hotels, restaurants, bars and etc. The sales are done according to the contractual arrangements, offering the potential buyers discounts, assuring the stable demand and stable revenues. The two-way and one-way sensitivity analyses were conducted to identify the impact of the risky variables on the model’s outcomes. The results obtained conclude that no matter how those variables vary during the experiment, the project’s outcome seems to be not sensitive to risky parameters, due to the contracts arranged. The overall conclusion is that the model is viable and feasible, resulting in high NPV and high debt service ratios. From the both perspectives – the owner’s and the overall investment perspective the project is bankable, feasible, and a perfect one, worth investing in. iii ÖZ Finansal analizi, projelerin, isletmelerin, bütcelerin vs degerlendirilmesi ve onlarin yatirima uygunlugunu belirlemek icin yapilan bir islemdir. Finansal analizi, projein finansal acidan uygulanabilir veya sürdürülebilir olup olmadigini belirlemekte yardimci olur. Finansal analizinin yürütülmesi icin bir cok sebep var. Insanlar ve borc para veren kurumlar sermayelerini riske attiklari zaman, risk´in büyüklügünü ve geri adim atabilme olasiligini belirleyebilmeleri gerekir. Dolayisiyla bu arastirma calismasini yürütülmesi icin secilen nedenlerinden biri, yatirimin riskini degerlendirmek veya bir sirketin borcunu geri ödeyebilme gücüne sahip olup olmadigini belirlemekti. Ayrica bu calisma, proje´nin uygulanabilirligini degerlendirmek icin yapilmistir. Bunun icinse, proje´nin “iyi” proje olup olmadigini anlama, bu proje´ye yatirim sermaye sahiplerini daha zengin yapip yapmayacagini belirleme amaciyla yapilan analiz faydali olmustur. Sirket´in amaci saraplari piyasaya sürmek ve hotellere, restoranlara, barlara vs. dagitmaktir. Satislar, alicilara indirimler yaparak, sabit ragbeti ve sabit gelirleri temin ederek, sözlesmeye bagli düzenlemelere göre yapilir. Cift yönlü ve tek yönlü kararsizlik analizi, riskli degiskenlerin, modelin sonuclari üzerindeki ektisini belirlemek icin yapildi. Alinan sonuclara göre, deney sirasinda bu degiskenler nekadar farkli olursa olsun, düzenlenmis kontrattan dolayi proje´nin sonucu riskli parametrelere karsi hassas degil gibi görünmekte. Yüksek NBD ve yüksek borc oranlarindan cikan genel sonuc, modelin makul ve uygulanabilir oldugunu gösterir. Her iki bakis acisindan – mal sahibi´nin ve genel yatirim acisindan proje saglam, uygulanabilir ve yatirim icin mükemmel´dir. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................ iii ÖZ ............................................................................................................................... iv LIST OF TABLES ..................................................................................................... vii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ...................................................................................... x 1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background ....................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Aim of Study ..................................................................................................... 2 1.3 Methodology of the Study ................................................................................ 3 1.4 Structure of the Study ....................................................................................... 4 2 FINANCIAL AND RISK ANALYSIS ..................................................................... 5 2.1 Objectives of Financial Analysis ...................................................................... 5 2.2 Analyzing the Project’s Risks ......................................................................... 11 2.3 Objectives of Sensitivity Analysis .................................................................. 16 3 PROJECT DEFINITION AND PARAMETERS ................................................... 18 3.1 Project Background and Description .............................................................. 18 3.2 Parameters and Assumptions .......................................................................... 20 3.2.1 Project Costs (Investment Costs) ........................................................... 20 3.2.2 Project Financing ................................................................................... 21 3.2.3 Depreciation and Residual Values ........................................................ 21 3.2.4 Operating Costs ...................................................................................... 21 3.2.4.1 Project Life ......................................................................................... 22 3.2.4.2 Operating Expenditures ....................................................................... 22 3.2.4.3 Land .................................................................................................... 23 3.2.4.4 Water ................................................................................................. 23 v 3.3 Labor ............................................................................................................... 24 3.4 Working Capital .............................................................................................. 24 3.5 Revenues ......................................................................................................... 25 3.6 Discount Rate, Inflation and Exchange Rate .................................................. 25 4 RESULTS OF ANALYSIS OBTAINED UNDER THE BASE CASE SCENARIO .................................................................................................................................... 26 4.1 Results of Financial Analysis ......................................................................... 26 4.1.1 Total Investment (Banker’s) Perspective ............................................... 26 4.1.2 Debt Service Ratios ................................................................................ 48 4.1.3 Total Owner’s (Investment) Perspective ................................................ 49 5 RISKS AND THE WAY OF REDUCING THESE RISKS THROUGH CONTRACTUAL ARRANGEMENTS .................................................................... 60 5.1 Results Obtained from Sensitivity Analysis ................................................... 60 5.2 Contractual Arrangements .............................................................................. 77 6 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS .................................................... 83 REFERENCES ........................................................................................................... 86 vi LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Investment Costs by Components, 2015 Prices ........................................... 20 Table 2: Project Financing ......................................................................................... 21 Table 3: Economic Years and Depreciation for the purpose of Tax Calculation…... 21 Table 4: Project Time Parameters .............................................................................. 22 Table 5: Operating Costs (in 2015 prices, in RUB) ................................................... 23 Table 6: Working Capital ........................................................................................... 24 Table 7: Discount Rate, Inflation and Exchange Rate (year 2015) ............................ 25 Table 8: Nominal Project Finance
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