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European Business Leaders' Convention European Business Leaders’ Convention Prospects for Russia-Europe relations Specially prepared for: Northern Light summit, Helsinki – June 29-July 1, 2017 Oxford Analytica CONTENTS Executive summary ................................................................3 About the report and expert panel .................................4 Politics and security ................................................................5 SECTION 1 Sanctions ..................................................................................... 12 SECTION 2 Economy and trade ............................................................... 15 SECTION 3 Investment ................................................................................20 SECTION 4 Finance and banking ........................................................... 23 SECTION 5 Energy .......................................................................................... 27 SECTION 6 2 Oxford Analytica EXECUTIVE SUMMARY There is little scope for significant change in relations between Russia and Europe in POLITICS AND SECURITY 2017-18. Ukraine, NATO, and Russia’s actions in the Middle East, together with deeper NATO: NATO–Russia relations will remain defence cooperation in Europe following Emmanuel Macron’s election in France and strained but a direct clash is unlikely. Angela Merkel’s probable re-election in Germany, will remain among the key flash- Syria: Russia will remain militarily involved points. Economic recovery and consumer market revival will continue in Russia but will in Syria, but engagement with other Middle Eastern actors will be limited and cautious. remain fragile and reliant on the price of oil. Assuming no major political disruption or Ukraine: Tensions in Ukraine will simmer as collapse in the energy market, the improved macroeconomic indicators in Russia and Minsk 2.0 remains deadlocked. Europe will help boost business and investment activity as both sides become used US: Uncertainty about Washington’s to dealing with the existing sanctions regime. Energy relations will likely improve but commitment to NATO, together with concern any change will be incremental. about Russian assertiveness, will lead to deeper defence cooperation within Europe. This in turn will raise concerns in Moscow. Prospects for Russia-Europe relations and flashpoints Moldova is a potential flashpoint if Russia-EU relations deteriorate significantly. ND ITICS A SECURI POL TY The Balkans will be an area of competition between Europe and Russia. IFICANT CHAN SIGN GE Russian domestic stability: Current levels of unrest are manageable but Russia’s longer- term stability hinges on the state response T S N A to the protests and the ability to develop a E N M C new political and economic narrative. T T S United States I E Syria O V N N S I Business activity NATO Russian domestic stability SANCTIONS Balkans Ukraine Sanctions regime: The existing EU sanctions will remain in place but new Investment Moldova Sanctions regime measures are unlikely. Any serious political disruption will lead to additional but tightly targeted sanctions rather than sweeping N E Economic recovery sectoral measures. Energy relations O G CHAN Banking sector stability E Diversification D Financial stability A ECONOMY AND TRADE Trade relations R T E Economic recovery: Economic indicators N D E Regional debt N point towards an improved investment climate R G A and reinvigorated consumer market in both Y Y M Russia and Europe. Any significant change in O N oil prices will alter growth prospects. O C E Trade: Russia-Europe trade relations will SI E GNIFICANT CHANG improve but remain vulnerable to any shift in the current geostrategic environment. FIN NG ANCE AND BANKI KEY: The distance of the issues from the centre indicates the degree of change. The further the issues are FINANCE AND BANKING from the centre, the more visible the change would be over the next 12 months. Banking sector stability: Strong state presence in the Russian banking sector will protect against insolvency. INVESTMENT ENERGY Financial stability: Significant non-payment Investment: Investment in Russia will Energy relations: Energy relations will of Russian corporate debt to European increase but change will be incremental. continue to dominate Russia-Europe institutions is unlikely. relations for the foreseeable future. Business activity: Familiarity with the Regional debt: Concerns about Russia’s sanctions regime will ensure a modest Diversification: Significant diversification in regional debt will increase but remain uptick in business activity between Russia Europe away from Russian energy supplies manageable in 2018. Long-term stability will and Europe. is unlikely. require a new level of prudent management. 3 Oxford Analytica ABOUT THE REPORT Oxford Analytica is delighted to support the 2017 Northern Light summit with an in-depth assessment of the fundamentals and future trajectory of the relationship between Russia and Europe in 2017-18. The report brings together Oxford Analytica’s in-house expertise and the insight of leading Russian and European experts. In the first part of the process, a select group of subject-matter specialists discussed a series of open-ended questions carefully crafted to elicit deep insights and expert judgement on the key issues in each of the six areas in this report. Additionally, the experts were asked to complete a subset of structured and quantifiable questions, which informed the ‘barometer’ of expert sentiment on the trajectory of developments and the potential for change. The barometer is specifically designed to track the results over time and compare the projections with actual events in subsequent years. EXPERT PANEL Roy Allison Nuriya Kapralou Professor of Russian and Eurasian International Expert Advisor on Russian finance and investment Relations, University of Oxford Klaus Mangold Samuel Charap Chairman of the Supervisory Board, TUI AG Senior Political Scientist, RAND Corporation Arkady Ostrovsky Paul Chaisty Russia Editor, The Economist Associate Professor in Russian Government, University of Oxford Alex Pravda Emeritus Fellow and Expert on Russian foreign and Richard Connolly security policy, University of Oxford Associate Fellow, Chatham House; Senior lecturer at the Centre for Russian, European and Eurasian Laura Solanko Studies, Birmingham University Senior Advisor, BOFIT, Bank of Finland Chris Le Fevre Mikhail Troitsky Senior Visiting Research Fellow, Oxford Institute for Associate Professor, Moscow State Institute of Energy Studies International Relations (MGIMO); Senior Associate, Russian Academy of Sciences Alexander Gabuev Senior Associate and the Chair of the Russia in the Konstantin Voronov Asia-Pacific Program, Carnegie Center, Moscow Head of Section for Regional Issues and Conflicts, IMEMO, Moscow Mark Galeotti Senior Researcher and Head of the Centre Andrei Yakovlev for European Security, Institute of International Director, the Institute for Industrial and Market Relations, Prague Studies (IIMS), National Research University Higher School of Economics Philip Hanson Associate Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House In partnership with the European Business Leaders’ Convention and supported by Renova Automation Intelligence. 4 Oxford Analytica POLITICS AND SECURITY SECTION 1 In 2017-18, there will be limited opportunity for significant change in Russia-Europe relations. Europe will be internally focused on important elections in Germany, Norway, Austria, and the Czech Republic during the remainder of 2017 and into 2018, when Finland, Italy and Russia will go to the polls. The European Union (EU) will also be increasingly engaged in arduous Brexit negotiations as the United Kingdom prepares to leave the group. The United States will remain the focus of Russia’s geostrategic concerns, but Moscow will make some effort to bridge ties with European capitals and capitalise on EU disen- chantment with President Trump’s decision to withdraw the US from the Paris climate accord. President Vladimir Putin’s May 2017 visit to France, despite the controversy over hacking during the French presidential elections, is an early example of a more concil- iatory stance towards European capitals. However, any further evidence of Russian interference in European politics will make it difficult for EU states to reciprocate. Russia will remain militarily involved in Syria but its engagement with other Middle Eastern actors, including Libya, Egypt and Iraq, will be much more limited and cautious. Negotiating parity in nuclear arms and cooperation in the Arctic, the most likely issues to be discussed by President Vladimir Putin and President Donald Trump at the July G20 Summit, will offer an opportunity to reach some agreement. A US preference for bilateral engagement may hinder a unified stance by the West on Russia The Trump administration has made clear that it prefers to explore ways to deal with Russia on a bilateral basis, rather than to develop ties with Russia as part of a coordinated trans-Atlantic approach. This presents an additional challenge for EU states seeking a unified stance on Russia, and may tempt European capitals to consider a similar bilateral approach to Moscow even though this increases the opportunities for Russia to leverage divisions between them. It is not clear if a reinforced Franco-German axis might be able to counteract such bilateralism. The peace process in Ukraine will remain deadlocked in the near term The military conflict in eastern Ukraine will remain contained
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