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Three scenarios for the Green Heart Region March 2001 &RQWHQWV
Introduction ...... 2 Introduction to the Green Heart ...... 3 Scenario A: Technology Rules...... 6 Scenario B: Europe Leading ...... 12 Scenario C: Water Guiding ...... 17
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The three scenarios for the Green Heart Region described here each focus on developments up to 2050. These scenarios have resulted from the Visions for the Green Heart project, which constituted, in turn, part of the project ‘Integrated Visions for a Sustainable Europe’ (European Commission, DGXII, Science, Research and Sustainable Development) in accordance with contract ENV4-CT97-0462 (RIVM-project S/408505/02).
The Green Heart region is first briefly introduced here to act as a starting point for the three scenarios and answers two questions: :KDWKDVKDSSHQHGLQWKH*UHHQ+HDUWDUHDLQWKHSDVW FHQWXULHV" and :KDWDUHWKHPDLQSUREOHPVDQGWKUHDWVIRUWKH*UHHQ+HDUWDUHD" The introduction is followed by a presentation of the three scenarios of which the main characteristics are described in Table 1 .
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+LVWRULFDOEDFNJURXQG The Green Heart is located in the west of the Netherlands (Figure 1). The region covers approximately 182,677 hectares, which is about 5% of the total area of the Netherlands. The Green Heart originated as a spatial planning concept. The ‘green heart’ and the Randstad concepts, the Randstad being the urban agglomeration area in the west of the Netherlands comprising Amsterdam, Rotterdam, The Hague and Utrecht, arose from the geological state and the historical developments.
The Green Heart and the Randstad consist of a ring of high ground which surrounds an area of marsh fens. Towns were built on the higher ground and, as a result, the land in the middle has remained fairly open. The $PVWHUGDP concept ‘Green Heart’ implies an open area meant to serve as a large, central and agricultural land mass, where urbanisation 7KH+DJXH is prevented as much as possible. The Dutch Government wants to achieve this aim through a restrictive policy on 8WUHFKW housing and employment, and since 1982, an active policy for enhancing the ‘green’ functions, such as agriculture, nature and recreation. 5RWWHUGDP
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'HYHORSPHQWVLQDQGSUHVVXUHVRQWKH*UHHQ+HDUW Figure 2 shows the main categories of land use in the Green Heart (1996). Agriculture is by far the largest land-use category, occupying 75% of the available space. The built-up area (including infrastructure) and water each occupy about 10%. So, only 5% is left for forest, nature and recreational areas. In the 1993-1996 period, 1000 hectares of agricultural 1% land were put to other land 5% uses. The main part, about 9% agriculture
720 hectares, was converted built-up area and to built-up area and 10% infrastructure infrastructure. This means an water increase of almost six percent in only three years. Almost forest, recreation, nature 200 hectares went to forest, other purposes nature and recreation. 75%
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3 Demography Despite the restrictive policy, the number of inhabitants in the Green Heart more than doubled between 1950 and 1994, from 330,000 to 681,000. Also, the pace of building houses in the Green Heart was above the Dutch average. The Dutch population is expected to increase up to 2010 (approx. 16 to 17 million) and ageing will also set in. These demographic developments are likely to result in an increase in urbanisation, which will, due to the high density of the Netherlands, intensify pressure on the Green Heart.
Economy In general, the Dutch economy is flourishing and the Randstad plays an important role in this. It is an attractive environment for companies in competitive terms due to the favourable location, infrastructure, culture, overheads and highly educated employees. The economic development of the Randstad has extended into the Green Heart, especially along the main motorways where companies want to settle in the green environment. Furthermore, future European agricultural policy will impact on the vitality of the agricultural sector in the Green Heart, which is currently one of the key actors in keeping the Green Heart open and green, notwithstanding the negative environmental pressures associated with agriculture. Agriculture in the Green Heart depends heavily on dairy farming, a sector that is strongly influenced by the European Agricultural Policy.
Institutions There is no single legislative body for the Green Heart. Most of the policy for the Green Heart came originally from the national government. The three provinces in which the Green Heart is located (Noord-Holland, Zuid-Holland and Utrecht) translate the national policy to the regional level. Finally, municipalities are responsible for the real implementation of the policy. In the 90s, a so-called Steering Group for the Green Heart (Stuurgroep Groene Hart) was formed to co- ordinate the policy for the Green Heart region. It consists of policy makers from various governmental bodies (ministries, provinces, municipalities) and interest groups like nature organisations.
Nature and environment Developments in infrastructure have led to some fragmentation of the landscape and disruption of ecosystems. Other environmental problems are disturbances caused by light and sound due to transport and lamp standards. Airports and their related activities have direct environmental impacts on the Green Heart in the form of noise pollution and threats to air quality. National government is trying to create new nature areas in the Green Heart. Two examples are De Ronde Venen, development of wet nature area, and the Bentwoud, a forest development plan. Climate change and especially global warming are big issues on the global scale. As a consequence it is generally expected that water levels will rise. This may cause a water surplus increase in the polders of the Green Heart.
Transport and infrastructure The Green Heart has experienced a growth in infrastructure, both in terms of roads (such as the construction of the A2, A4 and A27 motorways), and of rail infrastructure (such as the Schiphol line and Flevoline). At the moment the Randstad is coping with severe congestion problems. Since 1986, the number of hours spent in traffic jams in the Netherlands has increased
4 by almost 70%. The Green Heart’s road network is often used as a short-cut to escape these congestion problems. For the last 14 years the national airport, Schiphol, has experienced a yearly increase of 8% in the number of passengers and is expected to expand even further. With regard to rail infrastructure, a High Speed Line (HSL) is planned between Amsterdam and Brussels, and along the Betuwe Route, between Rotterdam and its hinterland. Both rail trajectories will go through or pass alongside the Green Heart.
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Spatial planning policy The national government tries to preserve the Green Heart as an open and green area. To do so, it follows a policy in which new residential and industrial areas are limited to and concentrate on the vicinity of existing towns. Called the restrictive policy on expansion in the Green Heart, this policy is written down in the so-called Policy Document on Spatial Planning .
Water Water is a critical issue in the Green Heart. Water management, and particularly the management of the water level, are important for the opportunities offered by nature and agriculture. The requirements, however, differ: a high water level is preferred for nature, but agriculture prefers a low water level. Other aspects of water management are the creation of sufficient natural flood areas and an increased use of the water meadows for water runoff. Water problems already occurring in the Green Heart are eutrophication; salination and drying of the soil; pollution of the water from industrial plants, sewage and water from other areas (esp. via the Rhine); pollution of river and lakebeds.
Recreation/Culture The Green Heart plays an important role in the recreational needs of the inhabitants of the Randstad (cycling, walking, etc). The Green Heart has many sites of cultural-historical importance, for example, the windmills at Kinderdijk, which have been nominated for a place in the UNESCO World Heritage List.
6XPPDU\ The Green Heart can be characterised as an open and green area of large scenic, cultural-historical and environmental value. The challenge for the future of the Green Heart is, despite the pressures, to maintain and strengthen the different aspects of its quality, i.e. quality of life, scenic and cultural-historical quality, environmental and nature quality, and accessibility and economic vitality.
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6 tram, metro and train services are In a reaction to the overcrowding of being slowly handed over to free the Randstad cities, some people want market. But also services in the field to leave the cities and opt for the of energy and water supply are being Green Heart. Because of the sold to national and foreign restrictive housing policy for the companies, giving companies and Green Heart, a house is not cheap. businesses more influence on politics. Therefore, only the more affluent population from the cities can afford a In reaction to the retreating national house in the Green Heart. Many older government and the increasing people move even further away, like to influence of businesses on everyday southern Europe in search of the sun, life, more and more NGOs are formed: the sea and the peaceful and quiet nature conservation organisations, surroundings. This brings about a consumer organisations, etc. Their selective population profile in the power increases thus mainly to the Green Heart: people above 50 (the increased support of inhabitants, who empty nest generation) and those with feel that by organising themselves and young children leave the cities, supporting NGOs they can influence creating a shortage of people between politics. 18 and 30 in the Green Heart. The increased demand for housing in the The economically favourable ‘climate’ Green Heart puts great strains on the and security attracts people from maintenance of the restrictive housing poorer regions, especially Africa and policy. the former East European countries. In 2005 a wave of economic and ,&7GHYHORSPHQW political refugees starts moving in from this region. The Netherlands 7KHGHYHORSPHQWVLQ,&7PRYHDWDUDSLG faces an increasing influx of about SDFH +LJKVSHHG LQIRUPDWLRQ OLQHV OLNH 200,000 refugees a year. Most of them $'6/ FDEOH DQG VDWHOOLWH LQWHUQHW go to the West of the Netherlands, the VHUYLFHV FUHDWH QHZ SRVVLELOLWLHV ,QIRUPDWLRQ FDQ EH DFFHVVHG IURP HYHU\ Randstad cities, looking for a job. This ORFDWLRQ 7KHUH LV D VKLIW WRZDUGV PRUH leads to an increased pressure on the ZRUNLQJDQGVKRSSLQJDWKRPH housing market. 6RFLHW\ EHFRPHV PRUH LQGLYLGXDO &RPSDQLHV EHFRPH PRUH IRRWORRVH DQG ,QWHJUDWLRQRILPPLJUDQWV OHVVGHSHQGHQWRQIDFHWRIDFHFRQWDFWV
$ VRFLDO SURJUDPPH LV LQLWLDWHG WR LQWHJUDWHWKHUHIXJHHVLQWR'XWFKVRFLHW\ $ JUHDW SDUW RI WKLV JURXS ILQGV D MRE LQ The Bentwoud, a forest development WKH VHUYLFH VHFWRU %XW VRPH EHFRPH plan, and the Ronde Venen, a nature LOOHJDOLPPLJUDQWVDQGIDOOLQWRSRYHUW\ development plan from the beginning 0RVW RI WKH LPPLJUDQWV OLYH WRJHWKHU LQ of this century, offer the desired green QHLJKERXUKRRGV ZKHUH KRXVLQJ LV FKHDS living environment for the rich. The 6RPH RI WKHVH QHLJKERXUKRRGV JHW YHU\ development of new lakes is partly in RYHUFURZGHGDQGGHWHULRUDWH reaction to the increased demand for recreational areas. But another important aspect is the effect of the In the beginning of the century, changing global climate. Global population growth was slowing down. warming confronts the lower parts of But now, because of the influx of the Green Heart with the need for immigrants and their high birthrate, increased measures to prevent the population grows at a higher rate flooding. Dikes are reinforced and (increase in fertility rate). flood areas designated.
7 New transport systems start to The train does not play a major role in develop, like the interesting option of goods transport, despite the (underground) pipeline transport for realisation of the Betuwe railway line the goods sector. The first cautious (‘Betuwelijn’) in 2010. It never meets investments are made here, partly up to the high prognoses due to the financed by the national government. more flexible needs of distribution and A good example is the underground the much cheaper and environmental transport of flowers from the flower friendly transport using ships. auction in Aalsmeer to Schiphol The increased economic welfare Airport (National Dutch Airport). This causes an increase in air traffic. The pilot project is realised in 2005. number of passengers on Schiphol Airport has grown from 39 million in Despite the ICT developments and the 2000 to 61 million a year in 2020. But opportunity to purchase goods from this also means more flights and more the internet shops, transport is disturbances in the surroundings of growing. More scattered dwellings in the airport, including the people living the Green Heart cause an increase in in the Green Heart despite several personal car use. People travel to and technical innovations to reduce the from work in the cities and the noise and air pollution. inhabitants of the cities move to the Green Heart in the weekends for leisure purposes. The delivery of 7KHSHULRGIURPWR goods (purchased via the Internet) necessitates more small-scale and The economy is still growing but at a tailor-made transport of goods from less rapid pace. The role of industry is warehouses directly to the consumer diminishing. The service sector, (in contrast to the former mass commercial and non-commercial, is deliveries to stores). These still increasing. New companies and developments lead to more local traffic expansions of existing ones are on the small roads in the Green Heart situated next to the main area, causing more congestion. infrastructural arteries, like Congestion on the highways and main motorways and railways. Farmers traffic arteries is identical to that at remain in the Green Heart, close to the beginning of the century; more the majority of the consumers. people working at home causes traffic decrease which levels out with the increase in the transport of goods. 7HFKQRORJ\ ,QYHVWLJDWLRQVDQGGLVFRYHULHVLQWKHILHOG Public transport (rail, bus, tram and RI QDQR WHFKQRORJ\ PDNH LW SRVVLEOH WR metro) is falling into private hands UHDOLVH PRUH SRZHUIXO FRPSXWHUV RI WKH (different companies). As a VDPHVL]HHYHU\\HDU consequence only the more profitable ,QIRUPDWLRQLVZLGHO\DYDLODEOHEXWSHRSOH trajectories remain and forms of mass DUH HYHU PRUH TXHVWLRQLQJ WKH UHOLDELOLW\ RIWKHGLIIHUHQWVRXUFHV transport (mainly buses) start to 6RFLHW\ KDV EHFRPH PRUH IDPLOLDU ZLWK disappear from the remoter parts and JHQHWLFDOO\PRGLILHGSURGXFWVDQGFKRLFHV smaller villages and towns in the DUHPDGH YHJHWDEOHVDQGPHDWSURGXFWV Green Heart. The train is the DUHDFFHSWHG RWKHUVDUHUHMHFWHG alternative to the car for intercity travel in the Randstad. The train can compete with the car due to increased speed and safety, and shorter stop Social differences are growing. Jobs and acceleration times. are becoming rare and unemployment in some sectors is evident.
8 The rich people in the Green Heart no 6RFLDO RUJDQLVDWLRQ LQ WKH 5DQGVWDG longer want to live in ‘new town’-like DUHD neighbourhood next to the cities like Woerden or Gouda. So they move to $URXQG WKH GLYLVLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH open space and villages in the Green OHVV DIIOXHQW SRSXODWLRQ DQG WKH ULFK LV Heart. They buy a piece of land and SUDFWLFDOO\ FRPSOHWH %RWK RI WKHVH JURXSV FRPSULVH DERXW RI WKH WRWDO build (or have built) their own villa 5DQGVWDGSRSXODWLRQ7KHUHVW DUH with a big lawn and fence WKHµDYHUDJH¶SHRSOH surrounding it. One could say, a 'park-like' urbanisation is taking 7KH*UHHQ+HDUW 5LFKPDQ¶VJKHWWR place, with big and little villas - KDUGZRUNLQJ IDPLOLHV FKLOGUHQ scattered around the green ERWKSDUHQWVZRUNFDUV QRWPXFK VSDUHWLPH environment. Private security firms - ROGHU HDUO\ UHWLUHG SHRSOH guard their new property. VXFFHVVIXO LQ OLIH NLGV DUH OLYLQJ RQ WKHLU RZQ 7KH\ KDYH D ORW RI IUHH WLPH DUH VWLOO YHU\ DFWLYH LQ VSRUWV 3DUNOLNHXUEDQLVDWLRQ DQGKDYHDQDFWLYHVRFLDOOLIH 7KHVHSHRSOHFDQDIIRUGDYHU\OX[XULRXV 7KH DYHUDJH QXPEHU RI YLOODV LV SHU ZD\RIOLYLQJ KHFWDUH 7KDW LV WLPHV OHVV WKHQ LQ QHLJKERXUKRRGVOLNH/HLGVFKH5LMQZKHUH 7KHFLWLHV WKHDYHUDJHKRXVLQJGHQVLW\LVWRW 7KH 5DQGVWDG FLWLHV FRQWDLQ VHJUHJDWHG KRXVHVSHUKHFWDUH SRSXODWLRQV - LPPLJUDQWVDQGXQHPSOR\HGOLYLQJLQ WKH OHVV DWWUDFWLYH QHLJKERXUKRRGV The Green Heart develops gradually /RZLQFRPHWLJKWFRPPXQLW\ into an exclusive residential area for - µDYHUDJH¶SHRSOH7KH\OLYHLQKHDYLO\ EXLOWXSQHLJKERXUKRRGVOLNH/HLGVFKH the more affluent population. 5LMQ RU LQ WRZQV OLNH *RXGD RU :RHUGHQ $YHUDJH LQFRPH DYHUDJH Around 2030 the influx of immigrants DPRXQWRIVSDUHWLPH has come to a halt. But this does not 7KH FLW\ GZHOOHUV SURYLGH WKH VHUYLFHV mean that the refugees want to go FOHDQLQJEDE\VLWWLQJGHOLYHU\RIJRRGV back. They like living in the IRUWKHSHRSOHLQWKH*UHHQ+HDUW Netherlands and have adapted to and socially weaker and are active in the become a part of Dutch society. The nature and environmental protection. former immigrants have set up shops of their own, with their own products; As national government leaves more they have become self-supporting. and more to the free market, the rich Population growth is levelling off and inhabitants of the Green Heart fear a the number of older people compared loss of protection of their exclusive to younger people is increasing; the residential living environment (due to population is greying. the lifting of the restrictive policy for the Green Heart). To prevent this they The European Community is further organise themselves into a powerful expanding to include the former East lobbying party. The threat of losing European countries. At the same time their precious living environment more legislation and power (e.g. brings people closer together and in nature and social) is being transferred this way the development of a Green from the national to the European Heart identity among the inhabitants level. is strongly stimulated. By 2030 this Companies and NGOs play a major results in the proclamation of a self- role in politics and influence public governing body for the Green Heart opinion. NGOs are most active in the (see also the textbox on the next fields of defending the rights of the page).
9 Aeroplanes have become smaller and 6HOIJRYHUQDQFHIRUWKH*UHHQ+HDUW PDLQJRDOV can take off vertically.
5HVWULFWLYH SROLF\ IRU WKH *UHHQ +HDUW LV In the last decade the shops for WDNHQ RYHU IURP WKH QDWLRQDO consumer products have become JRYHUQPHQW redundant and have almost all - QR H[SDQVLRQ RI LQGXVWULDO RU WUDGH DUHDVDOORZHG disappeared. They are converted to - QR H[SDQVLRQ RI KLJKGHQVLW\ OLYLQJ sniff-and-look places on the Internet. DUHDV These are sites where people can - DJULFXOWXUHUHPRYHG QRLVHDQGVPHOO choose their product, display it as a SROOXWLRQ hologram, so they can walk around it +RZHYHUH[SDQVLRQRIORZGHQVLW\ OLYLQJ and at the same time get familiar with DUHDVIRUWKHULFKLVDOORZHGDVZHOODV - PRUH VSDFH IRU UHFUHDWLRQ DQG ZDWHU the associated smell and feel of the LQWKH*+ product. After they have made their - IDUP EXLOGLQJV DUH FRQYHUWHG WR choices the product itself is delivered UHVLGHQWLDO VWUXFWXUHV DQG ORFDWLRQV directly to the consumers home by IRU FRPELQHG ZRUNLQJ DQG OLYLQJ means of pipeline transport. PRVWO\FRQVXOWDQWDJHQFLHV By 2050 the transport of goods is The consumption of space is exclusively underground. The only enormous: space for trade areas, traffic above the ground is now space for dwellings, space for passenger traffic. Personal air recreation and for natural areas, transport forms like hot air balloons space for windmills and solar energy and zeppelins have not yet broken panels. Collective values, like through on a mass scale. The preservation of landscape and care for traditional car with four wheels is still nature and environment, are under around in the Randstad and Green severe pressure. The new restrictive Heart area, but drives completely policy blocks expansion in this area. emission-less using electric and So, with the 'island-thinking' spirit of hybrid power. Most people only use the times, the island-in-the-sea option the car for leisure purposes or for the is chosen to fulfil the need for extra weekly face-to-face meetings at work. space. All sorts of islands are constructed for special purposes: residential, work and energy. ,VODQGWKLQNLQJ
,VODQGV DUH VHHQ DV HOHJDQW VROXWLRQV WR Air transport is a particularly WKH SUREOHP RI VSDFH %HFDXVH RI interesting option for passenger WHFKQRORJLFDO LPSURYHPHQWV LQ EXLOGLQJ traffic, especially for transport from WHFKQLTXHV WKH LVODQGV FDQ EH the islands off the coast to the FRQVWUXFWHGDWOHVVFRVW mainland. Various possibilities are 7KH LVODQGV DUH ORFDWHG DERXW NLORPHWUHV RII WKH 1RUWK 6HD FRDVW DQG being investigated, from zeppelins to DUHDERXWVTXDUHNLORPHWUHVLQVL]H more individual (motorised) hot air balloons. On the other side are the 7KH UHVLGHQWLDO LVODQGV RI WKH 1RUWK 6HD more traditional magnetic train and FRDVW IXQFWLRQ DV RYHUVSLOO DUHDV IRU FLW\ road transport. GZHOOHUV 7KH LVODQGV DSSHDO PRVW WR WKH ODUJH JURXS RI DYHUDJH SHRSOH KRXVLQJ LV QRW WRR H[SHQVLYH EXW VWLOO D Due to the ever-increasing demand for ELWPRUHH[FOXVLYHZLWKPRUHVSDFH rapid transport by air, Schiphol has $W WKH VDPH WLPH ZRUN LVODQGV DOORZ grown steadily. In 2050 it handles WUDGH DQG LQGXVWU\ WKH SRVVLELOLW\ RI over 100 million passengers a year. IXUWKHUXQGLVWXUEHGH[SDQVLRQ Technological innovations like anti- 6SHFLDOHQHUJ\LVODQGVDUHFRQVWUXFWHGRQ ZKLFK KXJH VRODU SDQHOV DQG ZLQGPLOOV sound, make it possible that DUHORFDWHG aeroplanes produce almost zero noise.
10 In the Green Heart all forms of mass 1RLVHUHGXFWLRQXVLQJ$QWLVRXQG transport have disappeared. Mass transport by train is still used to take :LWK WKLV WHFKQLTXH QRLVH LV UHGXFHG E\ JHQHUDWLQJ D FDQFHOOLQJ DQWLQRLVH VLJQDO people to and from the residential and R working islands. WKDW LV HTXDO WR EXW RXW RI SKDVH ZLWK WKH QRLVH 7KLV DQWLQRLVH LV WKHQ LQWURGXFHG LQWR WKH HQYLURQPHQW VXFK Climate change is no longer an issue. WKDWLWPDWFKHVWKHQRLVHLQWKHUHJLRQRI By the year 2040 the water level and LQWHUHVW 7KH WZR VLJQDOV WKHQ FDQFHO temperature are no longer increasing. HDFK RWKHU RXW HIIHFWLYHO\ UHPRYLQJ D The reasons for this sudden change VLJQLILFDQW SRUWLRQ RI WKH QRLVH HQHUJ\ are not all clear to scientists. Some IURPWKHHQYLURQPHQW say it is because of the measures 7KLV WHFKQRORJ\ LV DOUHDG\ LQ XVH LQ WKH taken in the past decades (reduction \HDU)RUH[DPSOH of the emission of greenhouse gases, $FWLYH 0XIIOHUV 5HGXFH H[KDXVW introduction of stabilising chemicals QRLVH IURP HJ LQWHUQDO FRPEXVWLRQ in the atmosphere, etc); others say it HQJLQHV is pure luck and has nothing to do 4XLHW=RQHV6LOHQW6HDWVDQG&DELQ 4XLHWLQJ WR SURYLGH FRPIRUWDEOH with any human intervention. ZRUNVWDWLRQV IRU HTXLSPHQW RSHUDWRUV Towards 2050 unemployment has $FWLYH +HDGVHWV ([WHQG KHDULQJ risen from 5 to 10%. Because a part SURWHFWLRQ EH\RQG SDVVLYH HDU of the more affluent 'average' GHIHQGHUVWRLQFOXGHORZIUHTXHQFLHV populations have left for the $FWLYHKHDGVHWVFDQDOVREHVHOHFWLYH WR DOORZ FRPPXQLFDWLRQ DQG LPSURYH residential islands, the socio- ZRUNSODFHVDIHW\ economic status of the population living in the cities has further decreased.
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7KHSHULRGXSWR of protests this can take up 10 to 15 years. Despite the restrictive building policy for the Green Heart, towns like More and more power is handed over Gouda, Woerden and Alphen a/d Rijn to the EU (European Union). are expanding. New residential, The European Community is pulling industrial and trade areas have been the strings of environmental policy. In built. In the new residential areas the the last decade of the 20th century all average number of houses per hectare countries agreed to a large reduction is 30 tot 35 (‘VINEX neighbourhoods’). in CO2 and NOx levels. Because of the still growing With regard to nature measures they population these developments do not agreed on the implementation of the result in a lower demand for houses so-called habitat and bird guidelines, in the Randstad cities. The young both part of Natura 2000, the people want to live in the cities European Ecological Main Structure. because of its innovative character Parts of the Green Heart too are and high number of cultural designated as habitat and bird- activities. guideline areas. This restrictive policy makes it difficult for farmers and The Dutch government has made a companies to expand in these areas, start with the realisation of the Betuwe route and the HSL, despite (XURSHDQ(QYLURQPHQWDOSROLF\ protests from inhabitants and environmental organisations. After a 1DWXUD long planning period, the HSL is (DFKFRXQWU\ RI WKH (8 KDV WR GHVLJQDWH completed surprisingly fast, being DUHDV LQ ZKLFK ELUGV DQG RWKHU DQLPDOV completed by 2007, with one small ZLOO KDYH H[WUD SURWHFWLRQ )RU WKH change: instead of running through 1HWKHUODQGV VSHFLDO SURWHFWLRQ DUHDV KDYHEHHQVHOHFWHG an expensive tunnel the HSL crosses ,QWKHSURWHFWHG DUHDV DOO GHYHORSPHQWV the Green Heart above ground, DQG DFWLYLWLHV QHZ RU H[SDQVLRQ RI cutting off the left part of the Green H[LVWLQJRQHVOLNHUHFUHDWLRQDODUHDVDQG Heart. DFWLYLWLHV LQIUDVWUXFWXUH KRXVLQJ Planners are adopting the ideas of LQGXVWU\ HWF KDYH WR EH DVVHVVHG RQ WKHLULPSDFWRQQDWXUHDQGZLOGOLIH,IWKH scientists for the making a Circle Rail QHJDWLYH LPSDFW LV WRR ODUJH Way (CRW) connecting the four main GHYHORSPHQWVZLOOKDYHWREHUHMHFWHG cities of the Randstad: Amsterdam, The Hague, Rotterdam and Utrecht. 8VHRIIHUWLOLVHUV 1LWUDWHGLUHFWLYH But history has taught us that it will 7KH (& HQYLURQPHQWDO SROLF\ FDOOV IRU D take a long time before ideas result in UHGXFWLRQ RI WKH DPRXQW RI DQLPDO IHUWLOLVHU XVHG SHU KHFWDUH (XURSH VHWV building activities. Depending on the WKH OLPLW DW NJ IHUWLOLVHU SHU KHFWDUH power of government and the number DUDEOHDQGJUDVVODQG
12 so the pressure on the remaining area 5HGXFWLRQRIOLYHVWRFN increases. ,Q 'XWFK JRYHUQPHQW LQWURGXFHG Farmers face another drawback. To WKH VRFDOOHG 5HJXODWLRQ WR HQG OLYHVWRFN meet the European requirements on EUHHGLQJ HQWHUSULVHV 5HJHOLQJ EHsLQ reduction of the use of animal GLJLQJ YHHKRXGHULMWDNNHQ¶ *RDO LV WR DFKLHYH D UHGXFWLRQ LQ WKH DPRXQW RI fertiliser (the nitrate directive), Dutch PDQXUH DQG VOXUU\ SURGXFHG LQ WKH government decides that it is DJULFXOWXUDO VHFWRU E\ UHGXFLQJ WKH WRWDO necessary to reduce the number of QXPEHURIOLYHVWRFN livestock on each farm by 30%. These 7KLV OHJLVODWLRQ RIIHUV IDUPHUV WKH measurements are an extension of the RSSRUWXQLW\ WR REWDLQ ILQDQFLDO existing, more voluntary, policy on FRPSHQVDWLRQ LI WKH\ FRPSOHWHO\ VWRS UDLVLQJDQLPDOVPHDQWIRUWKHSURGXFWLRQ reduction of livestock. For the farmers RIPHDW in the Green Heart (mostly dairy )DUPHUV LQ WKH VRFDOOHG FRQFHQWUDWLRQ farmers) this means a reduction of the DUHDV LQ WKH HDVW DQG VRXWK RI WKH number of cows. Farmers are only 1HWKHUODQGV FDQ HYHQ JHW D partially compensated for this loss in FRPSHQVDWLRQIRUWKHGHVWUXFWLRQRIWKHLU VWDEOHV terms of money. This means a big setback in income and capital for the farmers. land is unavoidably laid fallow and farmers face difficult times. In 2005 the European Union is expanding to include Eastern Around 2000 the Dutch economy was European countries (like Bulgaria, flourishing. But eight years later the Hungary, etc.). This means that these economic tide is changing; one of the countries now have unlimited access causes is a drop in the value of the to the European market. As a result, Euro compared to the dollar and the the internal European market is economic growth is slowing down. saturated with cheap agricultural This causes serious problems for the products like potatoes and beets. already weakened Dutch agricultural Horticultural products remain in the sector. Export increases, but most of hands of the Western European the food for livestock (maize, tapioca) countries. is imported from countries outside the EU, like the USA and countries in By 2010 the costs of the EC South America. Because of the low agricultural policy have risen sharply, exchange rate these products become due to the support of farmer incomes. very expensive. The EU is no longer able to give full The other economic sectors also feel financial support to farmers. It is the tiding turning. Products and raw decided to reduce the subsidies on materials from outside the EU are income, despite large protests from relatively expensive, so the price of farmers. European or national consumer products is rising sharply. government is not able to compensate As a consequence, consumption (of this loss of income. Some try to keep luxury products) decreases. their incomes up to standard by switching from cattle to hog farming, Plans for the CRW are slowed down leading to so-called hog flats here and because of the economic turning of there in the landscape. But because of the tides. the low price of pork and the high investments needed, this is only The restrictive policy for the Green possible for a few of them. Other Heart, for decades an anchor point in farmers take up extra activities in the Dutch spatial planning, is loosened. field of recreation. However, some This is the result of the transfer of power from the national to the
13 European level; local government technological research companies (1 (municipalities, etc.) did not fill this to 5 persons) are popping up and gap. They are more concerned with flourishing. They are mostly located in the local situation. As a result towns the city centre or in small business are slowly expanding with inclusion of parks around the infrastructural new living and working areas. nodes or next to the villages in the Green Heart. Only the habitat and bird-guideline areas remain strictly protected. All Around 2010 population growth is development is prohibited here. slowing down and the population is greying. Immigration is almost zero, Meanwhile, despite the realisation of partly due to the less prosperous the Betuwe route and the HSL, there economy and partly to a new policy has been no large shift from road for immigration that makes it more transport to other forms of transport difficult for people to settle in the by rail, water or air. Most of the time, Netherlands. passenger traffic and freight transport is by road. The developments in the period up to 2020 have led to fragmentation of the =HSSHOLQV DV DQ DOWHUQDWLYH PRGH RI Green Heart. The loosened restrictive WUDQVSRUW" policy has caused towns and villages in the Green Heart to expand by ,QWKHILUVWLGHDVDQGSURWRW\SHVRI creating new housing and small =HSSHOLQV IRU WKH WUDQVSRUW RI FRQWDLQHUV ZHUHDIDFW,QWKHPHDQWLPHWKLVIRUPRI industrial and trade areas located WUDQVSRUWKDVQRWEHFRPHPRUHFRPPRQ along the infrastructural arteries $WWKLVSRLQWLQWLPHWKHUHDUHRIWKHVH through the Green Heart. One could ]HSSHOLQV %XW WKH LQFUHDVLQJ FRQJHVWLRQ call it a clustered form of LV EULQJLQJ WKLV IRUP RI WUDQVSRUW PRUH urbanisation. As a consequence the LQWRIRFXV open character of the Green Heart is lost.
National government tries to spread out and reduce the mobility of the 7KHSHULRGIURPWR inhabitants with a system of roadpricing. But measures are not Agriculture no longer plays an efficient enough to really reduce important role in the Green Heart. mobility. As a consequence, Most farmers have given up their congestion in the Randstad region is a agricultural activities in the Green growing problem at the beginning of Heart. Because of this, the character the 21st century: traffic completely of the landscape, which is largely jams up and the Green Heart’s formed by its agricultural use, is no accessibility decreases. longer properly maintained. Some farmers initially received a subsidy The increased mobility causes more from the national government to noise and disturbance and creates maintain the land, but the earnings large barriers for animals. Nature for the farmers were too little to live areas are completely isolated and all on. but quiet. The habitat and bird- guideline areas are conserved but People start leaving and some had completely surrounded by highways already left the Green Heart and the and built-up areas. Randstad cities. The reasons are obvious. In the first place, the Green Despite the economically poor Heart is no longer the attractive green investment climate, small ICT and area it used to be. It is heavily
14 fragmented by road infrastructure. - stimulating European-made The open and unspoiled character is products (protectionism) lost because of the scattered buildings - investments in infrastructure that loom large on every horizon. (CRW and airport) - concentration of population on the Besides these aspects there is another Randstad ring good reason. The population in the - skill selective immigration policy, Green Heart is getting older, the varying per EU region percentage of older people is - new environmental policy. increasing, i.e. the population is greying. The elderly need special The production of products made in services that are not available in the Europe is stimulated and subsidised. Green Heart itself, only in the In this way it becomes attractive for surrounding urbanised area. So these businesses and farmers to use and people have to move to the cities. The produce European-made products. younger and wealthier part of the population living in the Green Heart Infrastructure focuses on the Circle moves to the east of the Netherlands Rail Way as a main component. The in search of a more attractive living CRW is completed in 2028. environment and to be near their Another main infrastructural project place of work. These people follow the is a new Euro-airport on an island in companies that left the Randstad the Canal between France and Great region because of the congestion Britain. Participating countries are problems mentioned earlier. What is France, Great Britain, Belgium, The left in the Green Heart is a relatively Netherlands and Germany. For the impoverished population: a high Green Heart region this means that number of unemployed people and/or Schiphol becomes a smaller regional people with a low income. airport. This reduces noise levels and hazard, and simply improves living in Around 2020, the first calls are heard the Randstad and Green Heart region. for a revitalisation programme for the Green Heart region, and government asks local and international experts to &LUFXODU5DLO:D\ &5: start with the development of a - 7KH &5: FRQQHFWV WKH IRXU PDLQ comprehensive programme. This is FLWLHV RI WKH 5DQGVWDG ULQJ due to the European Union being on $PVWHUGDP 7KH +DJXH 5RWWHUGDP its own. Due to the unfavourable DQG8WUHFKWYLD*RULQFKHP exchange rate between the dollar and - ,W XVHV SDUW RI WKH H[LVWLQJ UDLO Euro, products from outside the LQIUDVWUXFWXUHRIWKH+6/DQG%HWXZH URXWH European Community are still - ,WWUDYHOVDWDQDYHUDJHVSHHGRI relatively expensive. NPK - ,WVWRSVDWUHJXODULQWHUYDOVRINP In 2021, in advance of the RU HYHU\ PLQXWHV GHSHQGLQJ RQ rehabilitation programme, the ZKDWFRPHVILUVW decision is taken to start with the realisation of the Circle Rail Way. To create a regular supply of Around 2025 Europe takes the lead in passengers for the CRW, a policy is a comprehensive stimulating followed which tries to concentrate programme, both to stimulate the the population in the Randstad ring. economy and to improve living At the same time, expansion of the conditions in general. This program built-up area in the Green Heart is consists of several elements: again prohibited. Vacant buildings (houses, factories and offices) in the
15 Green Heart and surrounding cities by the European Habitat and Bird- are demolished. Especially the built- guideline legislation and at the same up areas from the 1990-2010 period time new areas are designated. are vacant and will be demolished. A unique part of the social and A skill-selective immigration policy is environmental/nature programme is issued to fill special job vacancies. the allocation of garden allotments, The skills needed vary among the one per family, for the less fortunate different European regions. For the inhabitants of the Green Heart. Green Heart two types of people are Another section of the population, needed. Due to the greying mainly former farmers, finds jobs in population, the first group consists of restoring and maintaining the original people who provide the necessary open character of the Green Heart. In (health) care for the elderly. The this way, large parts are again turned second type needed are those with into well-maintained grasslands. technology-related skills. Technology is the only flourishing sector and the Around 2040-2045 the local Green main employer in the Green Heart Heart economy is recovering from its region. These two groups of people initial dip. The living environment in also get a permission to stay the Green Heart has largely improved; permanently in the Netherlands. transport is more balanced and congestion is almost zero; natural New complementary European areas contain more species and are environmental legislation is issued. less fragmented; the elderly receive Nature areas have to be better the needed (health) care. maintained and protected. For the Green Heart this means expansion of the cramped nature areas protected
16 6FHQDULR& :DWHUJXLGLQJ
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7KHSHULRGXSWR Around 2005, climate change is much 3URWHFWLRQDJDLQVWZDWHU more a problem than ever foreseen. (QJLQHHUV LQYHQW DQG SURSRVH D QHZ The effects of global warming are more W\SHRIGLNH LWFRQVLVWVRIDQH[WHQGDEOH evident every year: temperature ZDOO FRQFHDOHG LQ WKH RULJLQDO GLNH ,Q increases, water levels rise, rainfall FDVH RI KLJK WLGH DQG WKH GDQJHU RI increases, summers are warmer, IORRGLQJ LW FDQ ULVH DERYH WKH QRUPDO winter are colder, precipitation in GLNH ,Q WKLV ZD\ WKH GLNH LV UDLVHG LQ KHLJKW DERXW RQH PHWUH 7KH GLNH LV winter increases, summers are dryer. FRQVWUXFWHGXVLQJV\QWKHWLFPDWHULDOV
The effects for the Green Heart are obvious: more and more people in the Netherlands, others choose another lower parts of the Green Heart, job outside agriculture. Some change especially the holms (‘waarden’) get business to hydroponics (‘substraat- ‘wet feet’. This is caused by a teelt’). This makes them independent combined effect of soil lowering due of the soil conditions. to settling (‘inklinking’), and the rising water levels in the sea and rivers. Because of higher risk of flooding, Groundwater level rises and seepage many companies, who would formerly (‘kwel’ increases In some places have settled or expanded in the Green seawater intrusion causes grasslands Heart region, now move to the to become brackish. Protection Randstad cities and other parts of the against flooding is more difficult every Netherlands. This phenomenon is first year and safety is no longer seen in the holms (low-lying ground guaranteed. near rivers, e.g. Lopikerwaard, Alblasserwaard). Scientists are trying hard to develop new methods to prevent flooding of The politicians in The Hague (seat of agricultural land and built-up areas. Parliament) do not like the effects of Government puts a lot of money into companies leaving the Randstad area. research and the development of new They start up an advertising pumps. Government is also thinking campaign promoting the advantages about the use of overspill or retention of settling in the Randstad. For this areas along the rivers, which can be reason, the restrictive policy for the used in times of high water. Green Heart is abandoned, which brings about a fierce reaction from the As time progresses, agriculture in the NGOs. They want the Green Heart to Green Heart becomes more difficult, remain a restricted area, without new especially for farmers keeping building sites and an emphasis on livestock. Some of them decide to give nature area development and a green up their business in the Green Heart living environment. But they also and move to the south and east of the discourage the exodus of companies
17 and people to the other parts of the )XHO&HOO9HKLFOH Netherlands. )XHO FHOO FDUV ORRN WKH VDPH DV Growth in ICT is undisturbed, giving FRQYHQWLRQDO FDUV DQG FDQ DFFHOHUDWH people and companies new IURPWRNPKLQVHFRQGV WKH\ opportunities. Distances between FDQ WUDYHO XS WR PLOHV ZLWKRXW UHIXHOOLQJ )XHO FHOO FDUV DUH GULYHQ E\ home and work locations are HOHFWULFLW\7KHHOHFWULFLW\LVSURGXFHGLQD becoming less relevant. People can IXHO FHOO RQ ERDUG WKH YHKLFOH IURP WKH work from their ‘office-at-home’ and FDWDO\WLFR[LGDWLRQRIK\GURJHQ companies no longer feel the need to be near pools of employees. Shopping can be done from behind the computer. Meanwhile, the prestigious High Speed Train (HSL) project, which has Some people in the Green Heart been in operation for a couple of choose for safety and move to the years, literally falls into the water. The higher parts of the Netherlands, tunnel (7 kilometres in length) suffers outside the Green Heart area. from water intrusion. In the past five The exodus from the holms is followed years the tunnel flooded a few times. by people and companies from other The salt water caused corrosion of the parts of the Green Heart. People and tunnel and weakened the companies in the cities are still construction. Safety for the relatively safe and have fewer reasons passengers can no longer be to move. But the government's guaranteed so the train connection is campaign to keep people in the stopped. Engineers think the solution western part of the Netherlands fails has to be found in building a bridge and the exodus increases. instead of the tunnel.
Greying among the residents of the The exodus from the Randstad has Randstad is also prominent. This is provided a large part of the solution to the result of a relatively low number the problem of traffic congestion. Now of immigrants and a low fertility rate. traffic is evenly distributed over the People leaving the Green Heart are in whole country, and the ICT most cases the younger people. The developments allow many people to older people do not like to leave the work at home so they no longer have place where they grew up, and decide to commute on a daily basis. to stay. Still, the main goal of the national In the years shortly after 2000 the policy is to try to reverse the ongoing freedom to go by car from one place to exodus of people and companies from another was almost zero. The roads the Randstad. They decide, in were congested with cars and contrast to their earlier decisions, to commuters had to begin their journey try to keep the Green Heart open and very early to arrive at work in time. in its natural state, concentrating on Government decided to improve the recreation and nature development. infrastructure in the Green Heart. The decreased pressure from the Public transport is now privatised. population and the economic sectors Travelling by public transport is now should make this possible. much cheaper and therefore more accessible to all. Nevertheless, people keep driving their cars and the number of cars is still increasing. New kinds of environmental friendly cars appear on the market.
18 7KHSHULRGIURPWR 6FDOLQJXSWRXULVP The rising sea level makes a large- scale adaptation of the Green Heart 7KH 7RXULVW ,QIRUPDWLRQ &HQWUHV DUH water systems inevitable. The VFDOHG XS DOORZLQJ WRXULVWV WR EH continually rising water level in the UHFUXLWHG RQ D ODUJHU VFDOH 7KH WRXULVW rivers increases the chance of floods. LQGXVWU\IORXULVKHV HJQHZZDWHUVSRUWV DUH LQYHQWHG ZKLFK LQ WXUQ SURYLGHV D The water intrusion under the dikes QHZLPSXOVHIRUFLWLHVRQWKHHGJHRIWKH makes the soil wetter every year and it *UHHQ +HDUW 7KH *UHHQ +HDUW EHFRPHV takes a lot of effort to keep DV LW ZHUH D UHFUHDWLRQDO SOD\JURXQG groundwater levels constant. A new VXUURXQGHGE\DQXUEDQULQJ way of thinking is adopted by the national government; ‘Follow the water instead of fighting it’. The marshes. Five years later this area decision is taken to flood certain parts gains the status of ‘European Nature of the Green Heart, a controlled form Conservation Area’ (ENCA). A re- of flooding, the lowest parts (the introduction programme is started up, holms) first. These new lakes in in which animals that used to live in former retention areas also function the turf areas are released into the as large reservoirs of water, which can fields. be used in dry summers. National government follows a spatial planning policy in which the magic /RVVRIQDWXUH word is ‘concentration’. New housing %HFDXVH RI WKH IORRGLQJ RI DJULFXOWXUDO projects, mainly for the greying JUDVVODQG LQ WKH *UHHQ +HDUW WKH IORUD population, and business parks are DQG IDXQD FKDQJHV DQG VRPH UDUH only allowed in and near the VSHFLHVEHFRPHH[WLQFW%XWRWKHUVSHFLHV Randstad cities. UHWXUQLQVWHDGPRVWRIWKHPFRQIRUPLQJ Because the controlled form of WRWKHLQWHUQDWLRQDOELUGJXLGHOLQHDUHDV flooding is a success and safety can again be guaranteed, spatial policy also provides the opportunity to develop some exclusive living The NGOs support the idea of flooding environments near the lakes (flooded parts of the Green Heart. They areas). immediately start lobbying for a 'nature reserve' status for them; The newly formed lakes and pools however, this status is not function as a large reservoir of fresh immediately given to the new water water, which is used to supply water areas. Instead the Green Heart to a large part of the Netherlands. becomes a tourist attraction. Day Water is also exported abroad, visitors and foreign tourists later providing a new branch of industry, replace disaster tourists, who are only next to the tourism, fishery and interested in seeing a few houses hydroponics under water. The areas still accessible for tourists – After a while the decision is taken to besides the nature conservation areas join the wet part of the Green Heart - become more and more attractive to with the IJsselmeer and the Zeeuwse the rich. The tendency exists for them Delta up to the ‘Blauwe Kamer’. to return to the Green Heart, where specialised architects build a kind of Around 2030, part of the Green Heart 'water-house'. These houses float on is declared a Nature Reserve, with the water like boats but cannot move. special focus on the creation of The building starts out on an
19 parked in big car parks. Or from )DUPHUV where they can further travel with public transport in the form of small, 6RPHIDUPHUVFUHDWHDSDUWPHQWVLQWKHLU high frequency rail-carts. IRUPHU FRZVKHGV 7KH\ DOVR RSHQ WKHLU SDVWXUHVWRFDPSHUV IDUPVLWH FDPSLQJ The HSL connection is restored using DOWKRXJK WKH\ DUH RIWHQ WRR ZHW IRU a bridge instead of a tunnel. FDPSHUV $QRWKHU OXFUDWLYH EXVLQHVV LV WKH UHQWDO RI FDQRHV DQGRU But not everything is under control ZDWHU ELF\FOHV now. An unforeseen element comes into play. The created (nature) 7KHIDUPHUVDSSO\K\GURSRQLFVRQDODUJH VFDOH 7KLV WHFKQLTXH DOORZV WKHP WR EH marshlands and higher temperature LQGHSHQGHQW RI WKH ODQG VR WKH\ FDQ are enticing to insect plagues, making FXOWLYDWHDQ\ZKHUHWKH\OLNH it possible for a water-related vector- borne disease to show up. These are 1H[W WR WKH WRXULVP LQGXVWU\ DQRWKHU diseases like malaria. People living on NLQG RI HPSOR\PHQW EHFRPHV PRUH DQG the islands are the first to encounter PRUH LPSRUWDQW LQ WKH *UHHQ +HDUW ILVKHU\ ,QVWHDG RI KDYLQJ FRZV LQ the effects. Medical science does not PHDGRZVWKH\KDYHILVKLQQXUVHULHV bring this disease under control and it spreads quickly, becoming national illness Number One. Life expectancy individual basis, but around 2040 of the Green Heart residents drops some small water cities have come rapidly. into existence. They can be compared in some way with the city of Venice in Because of this development, another Italy, only on a smaller scale. nature awareness aspect arises, Most of the time the people don't leave making the trust in ‘primal’ nature no the islands. They are pensioners, longer self-explanatory. This form of retired tradesmen or people who work thought is strengthened by the from home. They can do their collapse of global food production, shopping by Internet and use it as leading to a renewed need for well for their social contact. Products agricultural land. are delivered by special delivery services. Around 2045, all of this leads to the decision to revert the nature area in the Green Heart to agriculture. The nature reserve, especially the marshlands, are pumped dry again, but it will take a few years before the Green Heart will be able to support agriculture production.
Another measure is to keep the water flowing and to prevent it being A start is made with the development stagnant for too long. To achieve this, of new infrastructure. The car is not pumps are installed to pump the the most obvious mode of transport in water from one lake to another in a a water-rich environment. The circular manner, preventing one lake existing infrastructure (mainly roads from drying out while another is and railroads) in the flooded parts of flooding. the Green Heart is no longer maintained and deteriorates. Instead, This makes it possible for people to inhabitants have their own boats, remain living on the islands. Since with which they can travel to the more and more 'water cities' arise, it shore of the lakes where their cars are becomes less exclusive.
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