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Canadian Focus List RBC Dominion Securities Inc. Canadian Focus List March 1, 2017 | Quarterly Report Portfolio Advisory Group – Equities What’s inside 3 Portfolio positions Waiting for the baton to be passed 4 Sector commentary The Canadian Focus List delivered a solid return amid a search for clarity on U.S. policy direction. 8 Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. Portfolio increase 9 Canadian National Railway Improved global economic data helped Markets were surprisingly calm during Portfolio increase set the market on an upward trajectory the Portfolio’s winter 2017 quarter with 10 Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. in early 2016. Despite initial trepidation, volatility holding at historically low the election of a U.S. president set on levels. We believe it is reasonable to Portfolio decrease slashing tax rates, increasing fiscal expect moments of market anxiety in 11 Cott Corporation spending, and cutting regulatory red the months to come as policy-related Portfolio removal tape stoked investor enthusiasm for headlines influence expectations for 12 Dollarama Inc. higher potential corporate earnings future tax rates, fiscal spending levels, and set the stage for the market’s next and regulatory oversight. In such an Portfolio increase leg higher late last year. We have now environment, we believe clients are well 13 Imperial Oil Ltd. entered a period where investors are served by the Focus List’s prudent mix Portfolio removal looking for signs that the baton is in of economically sensitive and defensive 14 Magna International Inc. the process of being passed from policy positions in addition to adherence to Portfolio increase rhetoric to tangible action. the Portfolio’s core tenet of emphasizing high-quality, well-managed businesses. 15 Metro Inc. Portfolio removal 16 Waste Connections, Inc. Sector weightings: Canadian Focus List vs. the S&P TSX/Composite Portfolio increase Canadian Focus List S&P TSX/Composite 17 Portfolio companies Financials, 32.5% Financials, 35.2% Industrials, 20.0% Energy, 21.3% 24 Portfolio companies risks Energy, 17.5% Materials, 12.0% 26 Methodology Consumer Discr., 15.0% Industrials, 8.8% Consumer Staples, 5.0% Consumer Discr., 5.0% For an overview of the Portfolio, Materials, 5.0% Telecom Srvcs., 4.8% please click here. Telecom Srvcs., 2.5% Consumer Staples, 3.7% Click here for authors’ contact Real Estate, 2.5% Real Estate, 3.0% information. Information Tech., 0.0% Utilities, 2.8% For required disclosures, see page 27. All values in Canadian dollars and Utilities, 0.0% Information Tech., 2.7% priced as of February 28, 2017, market Health Care, 0.0% Health Care, 0.6% close, unless otherwise noted. Disseminated: Mar 1, 2017 7:00ET Source - RBC Dominion Securities, Bloomberg Produced: Feb 28, 2017 19:00ET NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION IN THE U.S. 2 | Canadian Focus List Over the past quarter, the Focus List experienced broad-based strength in its non-Energy holdings. The Portfolio enjoyed strong gains in National Bank of Canada (NA), Restaurant Brands International (QSR), Royal Bank of Canada (RY), and Waste Connections (WCN). After strong gains in 2016, share prices across the Energy sector have lagged year to date. With that, the ranks of the Portfolio’s laggards included Cenovus Energy (CVE), Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), and Imperial Oil (IMO). Overall, the Canadian Focus List delivered a total return of 2.29% during the winter The Focus List’s long- 2017 quarter relative to the 2.74% posted by the S&P/TSX Composite. Amongst term focus, balance, and the detractors from performance relative to the benchmark were the Portfolio’s predilection towards owning underweight allocation to gold producers and poor performance from a pair of high-quality businesses Consumer Staples positions, namely Metro (MRU) and Cott (BCB). leave it in good stead to With U.S. policy direction in the headlines and a number of geopolitical hurdles on navigate a wide range of track for 2017, we believe the Focus List’s long-term focus, balance, and predilection economic environments. towards owning high-quality businesses leave it in good stead to navigate a wide range of economic environments. Total return for the winter quarter (12/1/16 – 2/28/17) Canadian Focus List 2.29% S&P/TSX Composite Index 2.74% Relative -0.45% Source - FactSet March 1, 2017 | RBC Wealth Management 3 | Canadian Focus List Price Market 52-wk EPS (Calendar) P/E Dividend Symbol Company name Weight (2/28/17) cap (B) range 2017E 2018E 2017E 2018E yield Interest sensitive NA NATIONAL BANK OF CANADA 2.50% $56.68 $19.31 $ 59 - $36 $5.39 $5.96 10.5x 9.5x 4.0% TD TORONTO DOMINION BANK 7.50% $68.46 $127.21 $71 - $52 $5.56 $6.24 12.3x 11.0x 3.2% RY ROYAL BANK OF CANADA 5.00% $96.48 $143.34 $100 - $68 NA NA NA NA 3.6% BNS BANK OF NOVA SCOTIA (THE) 5.00% $77.04 $93.18 $82 - $54 $6.86 $7.38 11.2x 10.4x 3.8% BAM'A BROOKFIELD ASSET MANAGEMENT INC 5.00% $47.84 $47.19 $49 - $41 $1.92 $0.00 24.9x NA 1.5% REF.UN CANADIAN REALESTATE INVT TRS 2.50% $49.80 $3.65 $51 - $41 $3.53 $0.00 14.1x NA 3.7% ONEX ONEX CORP 2.50% $93.47 $9.61 $96 - $74 $0.40 NA NMF NA 0.0% IFC INTACT FINANCIAL CORP 5.00% $94.16 $12.34 $98 - $84 $7.39 $8.11 12.7x 11.6x 2.7% Consumer MG MAGNA INTERNATIONAL INCORPORATED 5.00% $56.79 $21.71 $62 - $43 $8.52 $9.46 6.7x 6.0x 2.5% ATD'B ALIMENTATION COUCHE TARD 5.00% $59.06 $24.81 $69 - $51 $3.80 $4.15 15.5x 14.2x 0.6% DOL DOLLARAMA INC 5.00% $102.28 $11.77 $105 - $74 $4.10 $4.74 24.9x 21.6x 0.4% QSR RESTAURANT BRANDS INTERNATIONAL INC 5.00% $72.46 $17.00 $76 - $46 $3.16 $3.35 22.9x 21.6x 1.3% Industrial AC AIR CANADA 2.50% $13.38 $3.66 $15 - $7 $3.42 $4.06 3.9x 3.3x 0.0% WCN WASTE CONNECTIONS INC 5.00% $115.75 $20.31 $115 - $77 $4.60 $5.15 25.2x 22.5x 0.8% CP CANADIAN PACIFIC RAILWAY LTD 2.50% $195.43 $28.60 $209 - $156 $12.94 $14.49 15.1x 13.5x 1.0% CNR CANADIAN NATIONAL RAILWAY 5.00% $92.36 $70.40 $96 - $73 $5.42 $5.91 17.0x 15.6x 1.8% TIH TOROMONT INDS LTD 5.00% $46.33 $3.63 $49 - $31 $2.32 NA 20.0x NA 1.6% Telecom RCI'B ROGERS COMMUNICATIONS INC 2.50% $55.76 $22.44 $59 - $48 $3.42 $3.77 16.3x 14.8x 3.4% Resources TRP TRANSCANADA CORP 5.00% $61.06 $52.74 $65 - $47 $3.09 $3.23 19.8x 18.9x 4.1% FNV FRANCO-NEVADA CORP 2.50% $85.61 $15.28 $106 - $71 $1.23 $1.52 NMF NMF 1.3% CNQ CANADIAN NATURAL RESOURCES LIMITED 5.00% $38.09 $42.32 $47 - $28 $1.30 $2.40 29.3x 15.9x 2.6% SU SUNCOR ENERGY INC 2.50% $41.35 $68.99 $45 - $32 $2.17 $2.61 19.1x 15.8x 3.1% CVE CENOVUS ENERGY INC 2.50% $16.80 $14.00 $22 - $15 $0.65 $1.03 25.8x 16.3x 1.2% PPL PEMBINA PIPELINE CORPORATION 2.50% $42.92 $17.03 $43 - $33 $2.04 $2.32 21.0x 18.5x 4.5% AGU AGRIUM INC 2.50% $128.05 $17.69 $147 - $105 $8.22 $9.15 15.6x 14.0x 3.6% Source - Thomson One In all jurisdictions where RBC Capital Markets conducts business, we do not offer investment advice on Royal Bank of Canada. Certain regulations prohibit member firms from soliciting orders and offering investment advice or opinions on their own stock. References to Royal Bank are for informational purposes only and not intended as a direct or implied recommendation for investing in Royal Bank and all related securities. Some exhibits in the report may not add to 100% due to rounding. March 1, 2017 | RBC Wealth Management 4 | Canadian Focus List Sector commentary Financials & Real Estate A solid foundation Our 35% weighting in Financials and Real Estate remains intact and we have made no changes to our stock-specific allocations in the space. We remain content that the Portfolio’s current positioning leaves it with the right balance of economically sensitive and defensive positions. While we continue to have a positive outlook on the Canadian banks, we must acknowledge that valuation multiples have enjoyed considerable expansion. The price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple for the Canadian bank index troughed at just under 10x at this time last year as crude oil prices swooned below US$30 per barrel. Crude oil prices have improved dramatically since then and, with their rise, tail risks related to bank energy loan exposure have dissipated. Further propelled by a brighter economic outlook and higher interest rates, the P/E multiple for the bank index has risen to roughly 13x; a significant premium to its historical average. We believe that bank valuation multiples are sustainable in light of our expectations for a relatively benign credit environment, improved operating leverage, and strong capital positions. However, the case for further multiple expansion is difficult to make in the absence of higher interest rates. As such, our expectations for total returns from the group is moderated relative to those experienced in 2016 when valuation expansion played such a large role.
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