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Week Ending Friday, December 11, 2020 www.mackaygroup.com 1-800-561-4468 MacKay Group Wealth Management. Our mission is to provide our clients superior investment advice, products and service. Serving clients and friends at RBC Dominion Securities Inc. – a member of RBC Financial Group since 1983. HOW I SEE IT – by Bruce MacKay remain accommodative- data releases have been Santa Claus Rally/IPO mania/ RBCGAM 2021 better than expected and economies are showing Stable equity markets this week - December impressive resilience - growth may stumble a bit in historically is a stable month - tax loss selling is 4Q but vaccine should clear path to normalization - behind us - this sets us up for a Santa Claus rally. analysts now forecast S&P 500 earnings growth of 20% into 2021 and for profits to reclaim their pre- Positives: AAII investor bullish sentiment holding COVID-19 peak sometime next year economy- at 48%- good confidence indicator. Lots of US IPOs reclaiming its prior peek over the next 1 to 2 years this month - NASDAQ expects robust Q1 too - and approaching its long-term growth trajectory in DoorDash and Airbnb this week possibly - 2023 –economy still supported by significant fiscal Robinhood soon. Pent-up demand from institutional and monetary stimulus.” investors - increasing their investments in equities. Recessions are caused by Fed being too tight - Negatives: Green shoots of opening of economy are definitely not tight now. V shaped bounce off the temporarily going dormant. What are "rent in bottom - US GDP up 33.1% annualized real growth arrears” - US renters could owe $70 billion in Q3 - likely 5% growth in Q4 - the economy is still (Bloomberg) - what do office, retail and industrial smaller than it was a year ago - it will take years for tenants owe? Canada‘s budget watchdog is a full recovery as small business needs to come questioning the rationale behind Prime Minister back. Big tech has allowed much the economy to plan to roll out as much as C$100 billion stimulus of operate virtually. Don’t expect double dip in the next three years seeing the economy won’t need economy- that’s what stock market is telling us. Jobs all that spending. IPO surge - many new US IPOs will take years to fully recover - US forecast of 6.3 see first day of trading stock prices double - is there million new jobs in 2021 & unemployment rate of too much speculation? Its rotation of markets that’s 5% for the end of next year. “FED is dead set on driving share prices - are we seeing euphoria leaving short term rates near zero for 2021 - doubt trading? ECB’s ' LAGARDE “warns of significant inflation will rise above its 2% target and will contraction from second wave - pandemic still poses change their mind” (Brian Wesbury). Expect long- a serious economic risk - affects confidence. term rates to head slightly higher to 1.4% on 10 year - steepens yield curve - good for banks. It’s about housing -US has been building too few homes Investment Strategy: “When the future first arrives through the past decade - Covid-19 increases we often don’t recognize it.” Bruce demand - expect prices to continue to climb in US - perhaps Canada two. COVID-19 - is there light at Stock of the Days this week include: T, ADBE, the end of the tunnel - 2021 is likely to be much DOL, DELL, SHOP. better than 2020. RBCGM just released “Global Investment Outlook - New Year 2021 - highlights include; vaccine development draw normalization Have a nice weekend. Be well. Bruce close - raising equity allocation & sourced from bonds. Little threat of inflation- central banks Page 1 12/11/2020 THIS WEEK’S NOTES & QUOTES - News and Opinions Worth Repeating 'Not Amazon' website seeks to boost local businesses across Canada Growing website has listings for more than 2,000 businesses in Toronto, Halifax, Calgary and Vancouver A Toronto woman is hoping to shift online shopping habits to local businesses during the holiday season by making the experience as convenient as Amazon. "I feel small business is what makes Toronto a great city, and to let them fall by the wayside during a pandemic would be the worst," said Ali Haberstroh. On Nov. 22, the day before Toronto went into a second partial lockdown, the social media manager built a spreadsheet with categories and links to local shops to remind herself to shop locally. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/amazon-local-businesses-1.5836283 Ottawa to hike federal carbon tax to $170 a tonne by 2030 The price of gas at the pump will increase by at least 37.57 cents a litre as a result Prime Minister Justin Trudeau today released the government's strategy to dramatically reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 — and its centrepiece is a gradual hike in the federal carbon tax on fuels to $170 a tonne by that year. Beyond the carbon tax hike, the government is promising $15 billion in new spending on climate initiatives over the next 10 years — money earmarked for improvements to the country's electric vehicle charging infrastructure, rebates and tax write-offs for zero-emissions vehicles and funding for home retrofits, among dozens of other proposed policies. The carbon tax will increase significantly from its current level — the tax is just $30 a tonne this year — as part of a push to meet and surpass Canada's ambitious goal of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 30 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030. https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/carbon-tax-hike-new-climate-plan-1.5837709 Page 2 12/11/2020 New whale species discovered off Mexico Researchers believe they have found a previously unknown species of beaked whale in waters off Mexico's western coast. If confirmed, the new species would mark a significant discovery among giant mammals. The team of researchers came upon three unusual specimens while tracking a different, rare species of typically shy beaked whales on Nov. 17 near Mexico's remote San Benito Islands, about 500 kilometres south of the U.S. border. "These animals popped to the surface right next to the boat," said Jay Barlow, a marine mammal biologist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in San Diego. https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/new-whale-species-1.5835576 Airbnb valuation tops US$100B in trading debut surge Airbnb Inc. shares more than doubled in their trading debut, propelling the home-rental company to about a US$100 billion valuation and one of the biggest first-day rallies on record. The shares closed Thursday at US$144.71 up 113 per cent from the US$68 initial public offering price. The listing came 10 months after the COVID-19 pandemic upended travel and 24 hours after DoorDash Inc. soared in its public debut. Airbnb joined DoorDash in what is quickly becoming a euphoric moment for new listings in America’s equity markets, egged on by retail investors embracing companies poised to thrive as vaccines promise a loosening of pandemic restrictions. While soaring valuations for IPOs give many market veterans pause, Airbnb is at least earning money, unlike 80 per cent of firms that have sold new shares in 2020. The company just reported its most profitable quarter ever. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/airbnb-valuation-tops-us-100b-in-trading-debut-surge-1.1534301 Facebook breakup would demolish Zuckerberg social media empire The U.S. Federal Trade Commission took a major step toward the possible breakup of Facebook Inc. by formally filing an antitrust lawsuit against the technology giant, accusing it of abusing its monopoly powers in social networking to stifle competition. The FTC and a coalition of states also suing the company zeroed in on Facebook’s acquisition of photo-sharing app Instagram for US$715 million in 2012, and the US$22 billion deal for messaging service WhatsApp two years later. The deals, which sailed past regulators when they were proposed, were meant to “squelch” competitive threats, the commission wrote in its complaint Wednesday. Now, the FTC wants Facebook to divest the two businesses -- an idea that poses an existential threat to the empire built by Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerberg. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/facebook-breakup-would-demolish-zuckerberg-social-media-empire-1.1534363 Page 3 12/11/2020 CANADIAN MARKETS I. Canadian Fixed Income Benchmark Canada Government Bonds IV. News we recommend on our CDN Holdings Market prices as of market close on Dec 4, 2020 Transcontinental Inc. (TCL) Giddy Up: Packaging Momentum, Healthy Printing Profitability, a Replenished Balance Sheet Ranking: Outperform (RBCCM). Price C$20.23 – Target C$23.00 Air Canada (AC) So what's going on with Air Canada stock? Ranking: Outperform (RBCCM). MG Canadian Fixed Income Top Holdings Price C$26.43 - Target C$30.00 Government & Corporate Bonds Convertible Debentures Dollarama Inc. (DOL) High Yield Open End & Closed End Funds Let it snow! Getting into the Holiday spirit Rate Reset/Fixed Floater Preferreds with strong Q3 results, target to $66 Perpetual Preferreds Ranking: Outperform (RBCCM). Price C$54.46 Target C$66.00 II. RBC DS WINTER CDN 2021 Equity Focus List RBC CM Focus List: TELUS, Dollarama Inc., Magna Please contact our office if you would like a copy of any of International Inc., Restaurant Brands, Alimentation the above research reports. Couche-Tard Inc., Pembina, Suncor Energy, TC Energy Corp, Bank of Montreal, Brookfield Asset Mgmt, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, Research Publications (available upon request) Element Fleet Mgmt Corp, Intact Financial Corp, National Bank, Royal Bank of Canada, TD Bank, Global Insight- 2020 Outlook Canadian National Railway, Canadian Pacific RBC Strategy CDN Focus List: WINTER 2021 Railway Ltd, GFL Environmental Inc., Thomson RBC CM FEW Portfolio – WINTER 2021 Reuters, Toromont Industries Ltd., Waste Connections Inc., Constellation Software Inc.
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