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EPP Party Barometer April 2021 the Situation of the European People’S Party in the EU

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EPP Party Barometer April 2021 the Situation of the European People’S Party in the EU EPP Party Barometer April 2021 The Situation of the European People’s Party in the EU (as of: 19 April 2021) prepared by Dr. Olaf Wientzek (Graphic template: Janine www.kas.de Höhle, HA Kommunikation, Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung) Summary and latest developments (I) • The EPP family has come out as the strongest political family in polls in 11 countries; the Party of European Socialists (PES) in 7 (if you add Slovakia’s Hlas, which is not yet officially a PES member); Liberals/Renew in 2; far-right populists (ID) in Italy and Finland; the Eurosceptic/national conservative ECR in Poland. In Hungary and Latvia (combined), independent parties are front-running. No polls focusing on the parliament have taken place in France since the EP elections. In the Czech Republic, several parties compete in electoral alliances. If STAN (EPP group but not EPP party) is counted as part of the EPP family, the EPP, at 22.5%, would be just ahead of ANO (22%), which is part of ALDE. • The picture is similar if we look at the strongest single party and not the largest party family: Then the EPP is ahead in 11 countries; the Socialists in 7; the Liberals in 3; far-right populists (ID) in 3; the ECR in one country; Fidesz is in the lead in Hungary. • 9 of the 27 heads of state and government in the European Council are currently members of the EPP family (10 of 27 if one counts the Slovak prime minister, whose party belongs to the EPP group but not the EPP party); 7 heads of state and government are members of the Liberals/Renew; 6 of the Social Democrats/Socialists; one the Eurosceptic conservatives; 3 are formally independent. • In many countries, the margin of the leading party family is extremely small (especially in Belgium, Latvia, Lithuania, Ireland, Italy, Finland, Sweden, Spain). Summary and latest developments (II) • In the Czech Republic (elections in 2021), the EPP parties KDU-CSL, TOP09 remain in the mid- single digits; STAN (EPP group, not EPP party) stands at 12%. The parties take part in elections as part of (different) party alliances. • In Poland, the EPP parties cannot benefit from the relative weakness of the PiS. • In Slovakia, approval for OL’aNO, the party of the Slovak prime minister (EPP group in the European Parliament but not [yet] an EPP member), has declined substantially compared with the election and stands now at around 10%. • In Cyprus (elections in 2021), DISY is still the front runner, with a medium-sized lead, despite slight losses. • In Romania, the PNL only placed second behind the Socialists in the December 2020 elections but was able to form a government. • In the Netherlands (elections in March 2021), the Christian Democrats attained 9.5% and thus undercut their own expectations (previously: 12.4%) • In Bulgaria, the GERB (elections in April 2021) was without any doubt the strongest force; yet the outlook for forming a government is considered uncertain. Other EPP parties are represented through competing electoral alliances in Parliament. • A bright sign is the rise of the Danish Conservatives, who are the biggest opposition party in polls, at approx. 15%-16%. • The “COVID-19 management bonus” for government parties, which became apparent in the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2020 in two-thirds of the EU countries, seems to have faded away. Picture credits: fotolia.com Strongest political family in national polls (April 2021) Sweden Finland EPP family (shaded: membership suspended) PES/S&D Family (Social Democrats, Socialists) ACRE/ECR Family (Eurosceptic Conservatives) Estonia ALDE + Renew Family (Liberals) Far-right populists (ID) Latvia Misc. populists Denmark GUE/NGL (far-left populists) Lithuania The Greens/EFA Ireland Netherlands Independents Poland No parliamentary polls since *Hlas is not yet a PES member but the the EP election party largely consists of former Smer Germany representatives, including former prime Slovakia* minister Pellegrini Belgium Czechia ** In the Czech Republic, several parties take part in the election in the form of electoral alliances. If STAN (EPP group) is included in Luxembourg the EPP family, the EPP, at 22.5%, would be Austria Hungary just ahead of ALDE, which belongs to ANO 4. Romania (22%) France Slovenia Italy Croatia Bulgaria 2. 1. Portugal Spain Greece Cyprus Malta Created by: Olaf Wientzek Picture credits: fotolia.com Strongest single party in national polls (April 2021) Sweden Finland EPP Family PES/S&D Family (Social Democrats, Socialists) ACRE/ECR Family (Eurosceptic Conservatives) Estonia ALDE + Renew Family (Liberals) Far-right populists (ID et al.) Latvia Misc. populists Denmark GUE/NGL (far-left populists) Lithuania The Greens/EFA Ireland Netherlands Independents Poland Germany Slovakia* *Hlas is not yet a PES member but the party largely consists of former Smer Belgium Czechia representatives, including former prime minister Pellegrini Luxembourg Austria Hungary 4. Romania France Slovenia Italy Croatia Bulgaria 2. 1. Portugal Spain Greece Cyprus Malta Created by: Olaf Wientzek Strength of the largest EPP partner party in each country Picture credits: fotolia.com Election results of the largest EPP member party at the last Sweden (2022) national parliamentary election 19.84 as a percentage/next expected election date in brackets Finland (2023) 17.00 Legend Estonia (2023) 0 – 5% 11.41 Latvia (2022) 5 – 10% 6.69 10 – 15% Denmark (2023) 15 – 20% Lithuania (2024) 6.60 25.77 20 – 25% Ireland (2025) 20.90 Netherlands (2025) 25 – 30% 9.50 30 – 35% Poland (2023) 27.40** 35 – 40% Germany (2021) Slovakia (2024) 40 – 50% 32.90 5.80 4.60 (25.02) Belgium (2024) Czechia (2021) 8.89 Luxembourg (2023) 28.31 Hungary* (2022) 4. *In 2018, Fidesz was still a full member 49.27 Romania (2024) of the EPP France (2022) 25.19 22.23 Italy (2023) 14.01 Croatia (2024) 37.26 Bulgaria (2025) 2. 26.18 1. Austria (2024) Portugal (2023) Spain (2023) 37.46 27.80 Greece (2023) 20.82 Slovenia (2022) 39.85 24.92 Cyprus (2021) Malta (2022) 30.69 43.68 Created by: Olaf Wientzek Picture credits: fotolia.com Poll ratings of the strongest EPP member parties as of: April 2021 Sweden (Mod.) in percentage; in brackets, initials of the EPP party strongest in the polls 22.80 Finland (KOK) 16.20 Legend 0 – 5% Estonia (IRL) 5.10 5 – 10% Latvia (V) 10 – 15% 15.70 15 – 20% Denmark (DKF) Lithuania (TS-LKD) 20 – 25% 15.20 Ireland (FG) 23.50 25 – 30% 30.00 Netherlands (CDA) 30 – 35% Poland (PO/KO) 35 – 40% 17.74 40 – 50% Germany (CDU/CSU) Slovakia (KDH, (OLANO)) 29.00 ** in the 2017 elections, the KDU-CSL was > 50% 6.50 5.70 (9.20) still the strongest EPP partner party. In this Belgium*** (CD&V) Czechia(TOP09**) poll, however, TOP09 is stronger than the Very recently KDU-CSL. held election or no 8.19 poll Luxembourg (CSV) *The KDNP is on the ballot with Fidesz; 25.70 Hungary* (KDNP) therefore, separate figures are not since EP election 4. Romania (PNL) determined France (LR) 21.00 Italy (FI) Croatia (HDZ) 7.50 34.89 Bulgaria (GERB) 2. 1. Austria (ÖVP) Portugal (PSD) Spain (PP) 36.00 27.80 Greece (ND) 24.80 Slovenia (SDS) 41.30 27.70 Cyprus (DISY) Malta (PN) 26.40 Created by: Olaf Wientzek 45.80 Picture credits: fotolia.com Comparison of the strongest EPP parties’ in the April 2021 poll ratings with the previous national election Sweden +2.96 as a percentage; initials of the strongest EPP party in the polls in Finland bold in brackets; regular in brackets, parties that belong to the -0.80 EPP group but are not members of the EPP Legend Estonia -6.31 -10 to - 20% Latvia - 5 to - 10% +9.01 - 1 to - 5 % Denmark Lithuania - 1 to + 1% +8.60 Ireland -2.27 + 1 to + 5% +9.10 Netherlands + 5 to + 10 % Poland + 10 to + 20 % -9.66 Germany Slovakia n.a. / -3.90 No polls since Czechia +1.10 (-15.82) since election, or Belgium*** +0.70 election took -0.70 place fewer than Luxembourg *The KDNP is on the ballot with Fidesz; six weeks ago -2.61 Hungary* therefore, separate figures are not 4. Romania determined France -4.19 Italy -6.51 Croatia -2.37 Bulgaria 2. 1. Austria Portugal Spain -1.46 +-0 +3.98 Greece Slovenia +1.45 +2.78 Cyprus Malta -4.29 Created by: Olaf Wientzek +2.12 Strength of the EPP family in EU member states Picture credits: fotolia.com Cumulated election results of all EPP parties at the last national parliamentary elections Sweden as a percentage; in brackets, parties that belong to the EPP group 26.16 but are not members of the EPP Finland 20.90 Legend Estonia 0 – 5% 11.41 5 – 10% Latvia 10 – 15% 6.69 Denmark 15 – 20% Lithuania 8.30 20 – 25% Ireland 25.77 25 – 30% 20.90 Netherlands 9.50 (13.90) 30 – 35% Poland United Kingdom 35 – 40% 35.95* Germany 0.00 Slovakia 40 – 50% 32.90 11.11 (16.41) 14.08 (39.10) > 50% Belgium Czechia 12.59 Luxembourg Hungary* 28.31 *In 2018, Fidesz was still a full member 4. Romania 49.27 of the EPP France* 35.75 22.23 Italy 15.72 Croatia **EPP parties are in electoral alliances 37.26 Bulgaria** with non-EPP parties in Bulgaria. The 2. results attained by these alliances are 31.85 divided by the number of partners. 1. Austria Portugal Spain 37.46 32.00 Greece 20.82 Slovenia 39.85 34.70 Cyprus Malta 30.69 43.68 Created by: Olaf Wientzek Picture credits: fotolia.com Cumulated poll ratings of all EPP parties in national polls as of: April 2021 Sweden (2022) as a percentage; initials of the strongest EPP party in the polls in bold in brackets; regular in brackets, parties that belong to the 28.00 EPP group but are not members of the EPP Finland (2023) 20.00 Legend Estonia (2023) 0 – 5% 5.10 5 – 10% Latvia (2022) 15.70 10 – 15% Denmark (2023) 15 – 20% Lithuania (2024) 16.50 23.50 20 – 25% Ireland (2025) Netherlands (2025) 25 – 30% 30.00 30 – 35% Poland (2023) 23.69 35 – 40% Germany (2021) Slovakia (2024) 40 – 50% 29.00 10.50 (22.50) 11.50 (20.70) > 50% Belgium*** (2024) Czechia(2021) 11.21 Luxembourg (2023) *The KDNP is on the ballot with Fidesz; 25.70 Hungary* therefore, separate figures are not 4.
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