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Planetary Science Meeting

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Planetary Science Meeting PLANETARY SCIENCE EXPLORATION THROUGH 2050: STRATEGIC GAPS IN COMMERCIAL AND INTERNATIONAL PARTNERSHIPS AMITABHA GHOSH, THARSIS INC. Objective of the talk Understand the landscape in International and Commercial partnerships What commercial and international partners will already do: and what they will not What can do to facilitate entry of Commercial and International Partners What can be do to retain American leadership in Planetary Science International Partnerships International Partners Established Space Agencies: ESA, JAXA, Russian Space Agency Countries with aspirations but lacking indigenous capability in Space Technology: UAE, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Nigeria, Brazil, South Korea Emerging Countries with Capability in Space Technology: China/India Emerging Nations: China and India Increase in ISRO Budget over the last 2 decades: ◦ In 1997: $240 million; 2017-18: $1.2 billion; *400%* ◦ NASA: $14.36 (1997); $~$19 billion (32% increase) . What is fueling this increase in budget? . GDP Growth Rates GDP Growth Rates For 2015: US: 2.3%; China: 6.9%; India: 7.6% GDP increase from 2000 to 2015: US: 80% ($10 trillion to $18 trillion) China: 500% times ($1.2 trillion to $11 trillion) India: 400% ($0.5 trillion to $2.1 trillion) At 2050: China GDP = 2 X US GDP India GDP = US GDP Emerging Nations: China and India . GDP growth results in increase in tax collections . Increase of the tax base: Tax base: China: 1.75%, India: 3%, US: 53% . Shows that there is financial Capability to support a multi-decade mission architecture in Planetary Science . National Public and Political Support . Technology Capability: Western Company Subsidiaries, Hiring Expatriates from US and Western Countries. Can be a limiting factor in the type of Planetary Science Missions undertaken . Planetary Science Capability . India versus China: Difference in launch vehicle capability . Results in differences in timelines of Human Spaceflight China/India missions (through 2050) INDIA CHINA 2018: Mangalyaan 2 (Mars Orbiter) 2018: Chang’e-4 Lunar Orbiter and Rover 2018: Chandrayaan 2 (Lunar Orbiter + rover) 2020: Mars Orbiter and Rover 2022: Venus Orbiter …… 2025: Mars Rover 2030+: Human Landing on the Moon? 2025 – 2045: Orbiter, Lander, Rover missions in …… Chinese Space Station: the inner Solar System 2003: Launched astronauts in …. space 2045+: Human Mission to Moon 2016: Tiangong-2 space laboratory 2023: Next Generation Space Station Commercial Partnerships Commercial Partner What is a Commercial partner in the present context? ◦ Brings money to the table ◦ Has a source of revenue other than NASA Is there a “mass market” application for Planetary Science? Well….. I will go to a billionaire who will bankroll this effort ◦ Benefactors typically have very limited budgets and have funds targeted towards some esoteric venture ◦ GLXP teams have not been able to raise a few million $, let alone $100 million+ 2 examples of firms that allocate capital: capital chases returns: ◦ Solar Energy firm in India ◦ Mutual Fund Commercial Partners contributions through 2050 . GLXP players: . Will not likely find a revenue stream delivering payloads to the Moon . The cost structure of a lunar mission is in large part dominated by cost of launch: so, GLXP players cannot promise significant savings to Space Agencies . Asteroid mining: Not much of a business model for materials back to Earth; might be a business case if in-orbit fuel depots become a reality . Ideas like Space burial: has not found public acceptance . At 2050: Commercial Sector unlikely to become a partner, for Planetary Science, when it comes to sharing cost . Of course, can help with better business models, competition to reduce costs, tech development. Musk E. (2016) Making Humans an Interplanetary Species, International Astronautical Congress, Guadalajara, Mexico. •Cost of a Mars trip to decrease by 5,000,000% or $10 billion/person to be reduced to $0.2 Million/person •Calls for 4 steps: • Full Reusability • Refuelling in Space • Propellant Production on Mars: Bringing Return Propellant costs 5 times as much mass departing Earth • Right Propellant How could NASA facilitate the entry to Commercial/International Partners Facilitate development of data products and maps for businesses: e.g. possible locations of a factory, location of ore deposits, possible sites of terraforming on Mars: Right now data products are exclusively for use by planetary scientists Give a ready how-to-kit and a for-sale-services package for new entrants into planetary science exploration (e.g. Saudi Arabia, Singapore, etc: have funds to enter the field: but unclear about the technology roadmap): this will also help JPL and other entities in Planetary Science with money Payloads on missions to answer business model questions: terraforming experiments on Mars, drills on Mars Strategic high value investment in high technology areas: e.g. Propellant Production on Mars What can Commercial/International Partners contribute? High High China, India, ESA, JAXA, Russia Aspiring Space Tech; Tech; SpaceX / Blue Origins Players Low Cost High Cost Technology Capability Required Low Low China, India Citizen Science, Tech; Tech; Aspiring Space players Low Cost High Cost Cost .
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