Kickstarng a New Era of Lunar Industrializaon via Campaigns of Lunar COTS Missions

by Dr. Allison Zuniga, Mark Turner, Dr. Dan Rasky, Bruce Piman NASA

Edgar Zapata NASA

1 Background

• President Obama’s 2010 Naonal Space Policy set the following goal for NASA: – By the mid-2030’s, send humans to orbit and return them safely to Earth. • As a result, NASA has established its Journey to Mars and Evolvable Mars Campaign (EMC) to: - Invesgate architectures to further define capabilies needed for a sustainable human presence on the surface of Mars. - Proving Ground Objecve: Understand the nature and distribuon of volales and extracon techniques and decide on their potenal use in future human exploraon architecture. • Under the EMC, NASA has also developed a Pioneering Space Strategy with the following principles: - Implementable in the near-term with the buying power of current budgets and in the longer term with budgets commensurate with economic growth; - Opportunies for U.S. commercial business to further enhance the experience and business base; - Near-term mission opportunies with a cadence of human and roboc missions providing for an incremental buildup of capabilies for more complex missions over me; - Substanal new internaonal and commercial partnerships, leveraging the current Internaonal Space Staon partnership while building new cooperave ventures. 2 as a “Stepping Stone” to Mars

• Prospect and extract to assess the From the Moon value proposion to NASA and our partners. – Lunar resources may prove beneficial for inclusion in future Mars architectures, e.g., lunar-derived propellant • Apply the proven COTS model to develop low-cost commercial capabilies and services, such as: – Lunar Landers and Rovers – Resource Prospecng Techniques – Lunar Mining and ISRU capabilies – Lunar Relay Communicaon Satellites – Power Staons • Use campaigns of missions, instead of single missions, in a 3-phase approach to incrementally develop capabilies and lower risks. • Establish Economic Development goals by incenvizing industry to create cis-lunar markets. – NASA should not be sole customer; by targeng other customers and new markets, it will kickstart a new era of Lunar Industrializaon.

The Moon can serve as a Gateway to Mars To Mars and the rest of the .

3 NASA Commercial Orbital Transportaon Services (COTS)

• NASA’s COTS acquision model proved to be very effecve in reducing development and operaons costs. Ø Studies showed a 10-to-1 reducon in development costs for Space-X’s rocket when compared to tradional FAR-based contracts. Ø Studies also showed that ISS cargo transportaon services cost significantly less than previous Space Shule flights.

• Best Pracces from COTS are summarized here: 1. NASA and commercial partners share cost, development and operaonal risk to demonstrate new capabilies for mutual benefit. 2. NASA makes long-term commitments to procure commercial services to help secure private investments. 3. NASA encourages commercial partners to target other markets outside Government to make their business case close. NASA is anchor customer but not sole customer. 4. NASA uses SAA’s to enter into partnership with commercial partners to offer maximum flexibility in design soluons without the full demands and requirements of typical FAR-based contracts. 5. NASA includes pay-on-performance milestones in SAA’s to provide several off-ramps and reduce programmac risk. 6. Commercial partners retain Intellectual Property (IP) rights and operates and owns final product(s).

4 Lunar Commercial Transfer Services (LCOTS)

GOALS • Establish affordable and economical cis-lunar capabilies and services. • Enable development of a sustainable and economical exploraon architecture for Mars and beyond. • Encourage creaon of new space markets to further reduce costs.

Approach 1. Use 3-phase approach to incrementally develop capabilies and services and lower programmac risk. 2. Use proven COTS model to partner with industry to share cost and risk. 3. Determine technical and economic viability of extracng lunar resources. 4. Use Campaign of missions instead of single large mission. 5 Apollo Pre-Cursor Campaigns – An Historic Context

Ranger Campaign Lunar Orbiter Campaign Surveyor Campaign

• Designed to take images of the lunar • Designed to map the lunar surface to aid • Designed to so land on the lunar surface unl impact. in the selecon of landing sites for Apollo surface and help evaluate the suitability • Acquired knowledge of potenal lunar program. of landing sites for Apollo missions. landing sites for Apollo missions. • All five missions were successful and 99% • Five of seven missions were successful, • Ranger missions 1-6 Failed, 1961-64 of the Moon was mapped, 1966-67. 1966-68. • Ranger mission 7-9 were successful, 1964-64.

Each mission in a campaign benefited from learning from prior mistakes and took advantage of economies of scale to lower costs.

6 NASA’s post-Apollo Lunar Missions in Search for Water

Clemenne Lunar LRO LCROSS 1994 1998-99 2009-Present 2009

Significant Findings Significant Findings Significant Findings Significant Findings Its Bi-stac Radar Experiment On March 5, 1998, sciensts Sciensts using LRO’s Mini-RF Sciensts found evidence provided data suggesng the announced that LP’s neutron radar have esmated the that the lunar soil within presence of water on the lunar spectrometer instrument had maximum amount of ice, as much shadowy craters is rich in surface near the poles. detected hydrogen at both as 5 to 10% of material, by useful materials, and also lunar poles, which sciensts weight, is likely to be found confirmed the presence of theorized to be in the form of inside Shackleton crater located water in average water ice. near the moon's South Pole. concentraon of 5.6% by mass.

These NASA missions have provided strong evidence for existence of millions of tons of water-ice on the Moon We now need ground truth data to confirm. 7 LCOTS Phased Implementaon

Phase 1: Low-Cost, Commercial- Phase 2: ISRU Pilot Plant Phase 3: Full-Scale Producon Enabled Prospecng

• Prospect several sites for surface resources • Develop a pilot-scale ISRU plant to • NASA awards long-term contracts for and hazards; extract water and produce up to 1 metric Lunar ISRU producon on the order of • Idenfy areas of high concentraons of ton of propellant. several metric tons per year. water-ice and other volales • Demonstrate capabilies for ISRU • Assess potenal sites for hazards and • Awards are also made for delivery resource producon. accessibility services to Cis-Lunar Depot. • Develop and demonstrate key capabilies • Demonstrate lunar transportaon of in partnership with industry. large payloads from surface to cis-lunar • Full-scale ISRU facility development of - Lunar Landers and Rovers propellant depot. approx 200 mt of propellant per year. - Resource Prospecng Techniques • Evaluate feasibility and economics of - Lunar Mining and ISRU • ISRU development and producon scaling up producon to full scale. - Lunar Communicaon Satellites facility cost has been esmated at $40B - Power Staons ($4B/year over 10 years).

8 Phase I: Low-Cost, Commercial-Enabled Missions

Proposed Goals 1. Conduct a campaign of low-cost, commercial-enabled lunar exploraon missions to prospect and extract lunar resources to meet NASA’s mission needs and industry’s commercial interests; 2. Determine the economic viability of extracng resources by tesng various commercial tools, products and techniques in a lunar environment;

3. Build an economic infrastructure by partnering with industry to place From Apollo Legacy to fundamental systems in service, such as, power staons, lunar 21st Century communicaon relay satellites, and ISRU facilies; Robotic Lunar Exploration 4. Enable a robust cis-lunar commercial economy by incenvizing industry to create new space products and markets; 5. Inspire the next generaon of space entrepreneurs by conducng several educaonal and outreach acvies.

9 Potenal Landing Sites

Lava Tubes and Lunar Apollo Historical Lunar Polar Landing Sites Caves Landing Sites

§ North and South Poles may contain an Several lava tubes and lunar caves exist § There are 6 Apollo landing sites with abundance of water ice below the surface in various locaons on the Moon. exisng US hardware almost 50 years in permanently shadowed regions (PSRs) old. and surrounding areas. § These caves can serve as human habitaons since they are very large § These sites can provide valuable § PSRs are very challenging to operate in and can provide a good amount of informaon on micrometeorite due to extreme low temperatures, low radiaon shielding. damage and hazards assessment on visibility, steep and rocky terrain, etc. the 50-year old hardware. § Several roboc missions to these areas § Several roboc missions are necessary to are necessary to provide structural § Some of the Apollo sites also offer very determine quanes, depth, composion integrity and radiaon data as well as intriguing geological areas that may be and accessibility of the water-ice accessibility informaon of these caves. rich in valuable resources. Missions to concentraons. these areas would build on the Apollo legacy.

Potenal Mission Objecves

Neutron Spectrometer

Low-cost commercial missions may be able to meet several exploraon, science and commercial objecves with small instruments and commercial products. Sample list of mission objecves are as follows: § Prospect for, characterize and locate potenal resources on the Moon (e.g. ice concentraons at the poles and precious metals at the equator); § Measure distribuons and depths of areas with high hydrogen concentraons; § Measure amounts of radiaon at various sites, within lunar caves and/or lava tubes; § Demonstrate ISRU technologies and operaons, such as drilling, for extracng lunar resources. § Precise delivery and remote operaon of commercial products from the lunar surface.

11 LCOTS Partnership Strategy

1. Employ the proven COTS model – Enables economical and sustainable missions – Establish “cost and risk-sharing” partnerships

2. Use available low-cost opportunies – On medium-class launch vehicles, e.g., SpaceX’s Falcon 9 or ULA’s

3. Partner with commercial and internaonal organizaons – To leverage exisng Lunar transportaon and rover capabilies – E.g., Lunar X-Prize and CATALYST teams.

4. Explore addional partnerships to develop other key capabilies, such as:

– Lunar Mining, Drilling and Excavaon Techniques – Lunar Relay Communicaon Satellites – Lunar ISRU Operaons – Solar or Nuclear Power Staons

5. Partner with companies interested in being the first to develop commercial products for the Moon.

12 Launch Vehicle Payload Capabilies

Launch C3=0 (or Earth Lunar Surface LEO (mt) GTO (mt) Vehicles Escape) (mt)

Atlas 551 18.8 8.9 6.1 0.8 – 1.3

Falcon 9 FT 22.8 8.3 3.6 - 4.5 0.5 - 0.9 (Full Thrust)

Vulcan Centaur 22 11 7.5 TBD

Vulcan ACES 35 17 12 3.8

Vulcan ACES Distributed N/A N/A 30 12 Launch

Falcon Heavy 54.4 22.2 TBD 2.5 - 4.4

13 Potenal Lunar Opons

Lunar Lander Teams Targeted First Mission and Capabilies

Planned for launch in late 2017 to Lacus Mors. Astroboc’s GLXP Team Peregrine capability ranges from 35 kg to 265 kg to lunar surface.

Signed launch agreement with RocketLab’s Electron GLXP Team Launch Vehicle for 3 lunar missions from 2017 to 2020.

Launch is TBD. Landers in development include Xaero, Xoie, Xombie and XEUS.

Signed launch agreement via SpaceFlight with Israel’s SpaceIL GLXP SpaceX’s Falcon 9 for a late 2017 launch. Team

Germany’s Part-Time Planned for launch in 2017 to landing site Sciensts GLXP Team (Taurus-Lirow Valley).

Planned for launch early next decade on ULA’s Vulcan ULA’s XEUS, ACES derived launch vehicle. Lander capability is approx 3.8 mt to Lander lunar surface for single launch and much greater using distributed launch. Potenal Rover Opons

Lunar Lander Teams Targeted First Mission and Capabilies

Astroboc/Carnegie Mulple rover opons including Andy rover for first Mellon University GLXP mission and Polar rover with excavaon and Team planetary cave exploraon capabilies. iSpace Technologies Mulple rover opons for resource prospecng and operates ’s tethered rovers to explore polar craters and caves. GLXP Team

The Unity Rover plans to deliver small payloads on Chile’s AngelicvM GLXP first and follow-on missions. Team

The Audi Lunar Quaro is equipped with a 4-wheeled Germany’s Part-Time electrical drive chain, ltable solar panels, Sciensts GLXP team rechargeable baeries and science grade HD partnered with Audi cameras.

15 Resource Prospecng Instruments

Instrumentaon Opons Key Measurements

Neutron Spectrometer System Senses hydrogen-bearing materials (eg. Ice) in (NSS) the top meter of .

Neutron Spectrometer Idenfy volales, including water form (e.g. ice Near-Infrared Volale bound) in top 20-30 cm of regolith. Also provides Spectrometer System (NIRVSS) surface temperatures at scales of <10 m

Camera, LEDs plus NIR Provides high fidelity spectral composion at spectrometer range.

Camera and LEDs only Measures soil and regolith composion at 100 micron scale.

NIRVSS Drills Captures samples from up to 1 m; provides more accurate strength measurement of subsurface.

16 Lunar Infrastructure

Lunar Communicaon Relay Satellites • Enables communicaon that are not in direct line of sight with Earth, such as, North and South Poles and Lunar Farside. • Provides telemetry links and payload data relay from lunar orbit and lunar surface.

Power Staons • Several opons including solar, nuclear and power beaming from solar satellites. • Several challenges to overcome including 14-day night me periods and PSRs at poles.

Landing Zones • To enable safe, reliable and successful landings, landing zones should include landing pads and local navigaon aids.

Government can be a catalyst to lunar industrializaon by seng in place the infrastructure needed for new lunar industries to flourish.

17 Potenal Lunar Industries

• Recent studies have invesgated the potenal of near-term and long-term commercial opportunies for cis-lunar and lunar markets as shown below. • Although preliminary results show significant markets and revenue streams, addional economic analysis is needed to determine realisc return on investments.

Source Basis Annual Income

Tourism 7,000 tourists@ $1M–$2M each $7B–$14B Space Burial 100,000 to 500,000@$5K–$10K each $0.5B–$5B Helium-3 10–30 tons @ $3B/ton $30B–$90B Diplomats/National 150 people $0.5M/person $0.75B Representatives Entertainment and the Arts TBD $2B–$10B Mining/Minerals (except 3He) TBD $2B–$10B Science Astronomy, Geology, Biology, Physics, Chemistry $2B–$5B Solar System Exploration 20% of NASA budget + commercial $5B Solar Power Satellites 2–10 @$8.5B each $17B–$85B Knowledge Preservation (Lunar TBD $0.5B–$1B Library) Manufacturing Low and 0-g manufacturing, structural components $2B–$5B for use in space Reference: Google Lunar XPRIZE Market Study 2013, preparedTotal by Annual London Economics External Income $70B–$230B

Reference: Xingmeng et al, “Low-Cost, Large-Scale Economically Sustainable Lunar Colony,” USC, NASA RAASC-AL Competition, Florida, 2015

18 Next Steps

• Connue to invesgate and develop 3-Phase Phase 1 approach for Lunar ISRU development. Phase I – Develop mission objecves, budgets and schedule opons for each phase.

• Conduct 1-day Lunar Industrializaon Workshop to determine readiness level from industry. – To determine readiness level of industry Phase 2 – Areas of interest for public private partnerships. – Follow-up with industry interviews. • Connue to develop life cycle cost and economic assessment for: – Extracng lunar resources and creang lunar-derived propellant on a pilot-scale; – Full-scale ISRU facility for creang approx 200 mt of Phase 3 propellant per year; – Delivery to a propellant depot at a cis-lunar desnaon.

Lunar COTS 3-phase approach has great potenal of yielding an economical and sustainable approach for reaching Mars and beyond.