Into Bizarro World
Damon Runberg Regional Economist, Oregon Employment Department
Roughly half of the jobs lost have been added back 2.0% 0.7% Deschutes County Oregon 0.4% 0.3% 0.0%0.0% 0.0%
-0.6% -2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
-8.0% -7.4% -8.1% -8.1% -8.6% -10.0% -9.4% -9.4% -10.2% -10.2% -10.4% -12.0%
-14.0% -13.0%
-14.2% -14.2% Seasonally Adjusted Total Nonfarm Employment Relative to Januaryto EmploymentRelative Nonfarm Total Adjusted Seasonally -16.0%
-17.1% -18.0% Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 And, the number of unemployed workers remains roughly twice as high as it was before COVID 6
Oregon Deschutes 5
4
3
2
1 Number of SA UnemployedIndexed Workersto January 2020Number ofSA
0 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 The trajectory of the recovery has been impressive, but rise in permanent layoffs concerning 225,000
200,000
175,000
On Temporary Layoff Permanent job losers Persons completing temp. jobs 150,000
125,000
100,000 Unemployed OregoniansUnemployed 75,000
50,000
25,000
0 2003M01 2005M01 2007M01 2009M01 2011M01 2013M01 2015M01 2017M01 2019M01 Impressive improvement statewide, but a “Great Recession”-sized hole remains 105%
100% The Great Recession
95%
90%
The Great Lockdown
85% Percent of Previous Peak EmploymentofPeak Previous Percent
80%
75% 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 Months Since Previous Peak Employment A deep recession, but a fast recovery here in Deschutes County 105%
100% The Great Recession
95%
90%
85%
The Great Lockdown Percent of Previous Peak EmploymentofPeak Previous Percent
80%
75% 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 Months Since Previous Peak Employment The employment landscape of our Rural Communities much stronger than initially estimated 105%
Crook Original Crook Revised Jefferson Original Jefferson Revised
100%
95%
90%
85%
80%
75% Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Deschutes losses widespread, but not all industries were hard hit (payroll losses more muted)
Management of companies and enterprises Nursing and residential care facilities Professional and technical services Social assistance Construction Transportation, warehousing & utilities Payroll Natural resources and mining Wholesale trade Employment Ambulatory health care services Government Information Retail trade Manufacturing Administrative and waste services Real estate and rental and leasing Educational services Other services Accommodation and food services Arts, entertainment, and recreation
-60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% Q2 2019 V. Q2 2020 Unemployment down significantly, but lower wage occupations remain harder hit
Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Median Hourly Wage Food Preparation and Serving Less than $15.00 Personal Care and Service Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Healthcare Support Production Transportation and Material Moving $15.00 - $19.99 Sales and Related Office and Administrative Support Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Construction and Extraction Installation, Maintenance, and Repair $20.00 - $29.99 Education, Training, and Library Community and Social Service Protective Service Life, Physical, and Social Science Management Business and Financial Operations Computer and Mathematical Greater than $30.00 Legal Architecture and Engineering Healthcare Practitioners
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Continuing Unemployment Insurance Claims as a Share of Total Employment Hotel visitors down significantly, but probably exaggerating visitor reductions
Southern -19.9%
Coast -22.7%
Eastern -23.0%
Central -26.1%
Willamette Valley -27.8%
Mt. Hood/ Gorge -30.9%
Oregon -34.7%
US -36.3%
Portland Metro -50.0%
-60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% Hotel Room Demand percent change from last year (YTD through September) Air traffic remains down, trend looks better than international airports 0%
-20%
-41.9%
day moving average) moving day - -40%
from last year year (7 lastfrom -60% deplanments -80%
-100%
-95.2% Percent Change in RDM RDM Changein Percent
-120% 3/16/2020 4/16/2020 5/16/2020 6/16/2020 7/16/2020 8/16/2020 9/16/2020 10/16/2020 How may the freeze impact our employment recovery? 1.05
1.00 ~50,000 jobs vulnerable to temporary layoff
0.95
0.90
0.85 Oregon Nonfarm Employment Indexed to JanuarytoIndexed NonfarmEmploymentOregon 0.80
0.75 January February March April May June July August September October November “I am from the real world, not the bizarro world, and the two simply do not mesh” -Elaine Questions?
Damon Runberg, Economist Oregon Employment Department
541-706-0779 [email protected] Twitter: @EastSlopeEcon