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A Renewed Look at Entertainment Stocks

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A Renewed Look at Entertainment Stocks Entertainment A renewed look at entertainment stocks Overweight (Maintain) Sector correction sparked by negative news is subsiding The combined market value of Korea’s three major entertainment firms – YG Industry Report Entertainment (122870 KQ/Buy/TP: W60,000/CP: W37,400); SM Entertainment ( 041510 April 24, 2019 KQ/Buy/TP: W59,000/CP: W41,300); and JYP Entertainment (035900 KQ /TP: W41,000/CP: W30,850) - hit a low of W2.5tr on March 15 th , which represented a roughly th 22% loss from the previous high of W3.2tr set on January 7 . This was primari ly due to several negative news events that took place all at once, including a series of celebrity Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. scandals at YG Entertainment (February 26 th ) and SM Entertainment’s 4Q18 earnings shock (March 8 th ). [Media ] Since then, all three entertainment stocks have reboun ded. As of yesterday’s close, Jeong -yeob Park +822 -3774 -1652 their combined market value stood at W2.7tr, up 8% from the previous low. In the end, [email protected] the three stocks managed to defend their post-2011 valuation lows. Their most recent trough was similar to the lows recorded during previous negative events (P/B of around 1.5x; EXO member departures in October 2014, YG Entertainment’s tax audit in August 2016, THAAD backlash in March 2017, and Big Bang’s military enlistment in May 2018). All three companies are heading into the 1Q19 earnin gs season (expected around May 14 th ) with their stocks in better places. Given artist schedules, we believe 1Q19 earnings variables were not noticeably strong for any of the three companies. Uncertainties also remain regarding YG Entertainment’s tax audit and SM Entertainment’s ability to sustain profits in 2019. Still, we believe it is important to take a closer look at key industry issues and potential income sources that paint a more positive picture for entertainment firms as we move into the 1Q19 earnings season. Combined market cap of the three entertainment firms has risen 8% after falling 22% from the previous high (Wtr) 2018 high (10/1) 2019 high (1/7) 4/23 closing price 3.6 combined market cap W3.4tr W3.2tr W2.7tr (+8.2% from low) 3.3 3.0 2.7 2.4 2.1 2019 low (3/15) W2.5tr 1.8 (-22% from previous high) 1.5 1/18 3/18 5/18 7/18 9/18 11/18 1/19 3/19 Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research JYP’s market cap has remained solid, while those of SM and YG have fluctuated sharply (Wtr) 1.4 SM JYP Ent. YG Ent. Low: -6.7% 1.2 JYP Ent. Rebound from low: +12.1% 1.0 SM Ent. Low: -22.8% rebound from previous low: +9.0% 0.8 0.6 Low: -23.5% Rebound from low: +6.4% 0.4 1/18 3/18 5/18 7/18 9/18 11/18 1/19 3/19 Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Entertainment April 24, 2019 Key points before and after 1Q19 earnings release: Growing profile of K- pop in the global market Overall, the factors that drove the re-rating of the three major entertainment firms in 2018 remain intact or strengthening. Here is the reasoning behind our industry target P/E of 40x: 1) From a qualitative perspective, the profile of K-pop is growing in major markets. BLACKPINK and BTS, who made stellar comebacks in April, are expanding their fan base not only in Asia, but in the US and Europe, thus boosting investor sentiment. An upcoming major event is the Billboard Music Awards (BBMA) slated for May 1 st , with multiple K-Pop artists nominated for awards, including Top Social Artist (BTS, GOT7, and EXO) and Top Duo/Group (BTS). In line with their increased profile, K-pop artists are engaging in global concerts and marketing activities (TV and festival appearances) in collaboration with local partners. BLACKPINK, NCT, and BTS made appearances in major ABC news shows. In addition, BLACKPINK (12 shows in the North America and Europe starting on April 17 th ) and BTS (US, Europe, and Japan starting on May 4 th ) are set to kick off global tour concerts. Of note, BLACKPINK (set to hold their first tour concert) is expected to attract strong concert attendance (versus BTS: four shows in 2015 five shows in 2017 22 shows in 2018). Given steadily rising minimum guarantee for artists, we see a positive outlook for performance revenue in new markets. Figure 1. 2019 Billboard Music Awards: BTS and Halsey to perform together; GOT7 and EXO nominated for the first time Source: Billboard, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Figure 2. NCT and BLACKPINK are currently on US tours Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 Entertainment April 24, 2019 2) From a quantitative perspective, global digital music revenue is steadily expanding. For 2019, we expect the combined YouTube revenue of Korea’s three major entertainment firms to increase 56% YoY to W27.1bn (W8.5bn for SM; W14bn for YG; 46 for JYP). In 1Q19, major K-Pop channels’ YouTube views increased 35% YoY, with YG Entertainment showing the strongest growth (+122% YoY). Both BLACKPINK (57mn views) and BTS (78mn views) have smashed YouTube’s record for the most views accrued in the first 24 hours of release with the singles they released in April. We believe that YouTube views are worth noting, as they are directly linked to ad revenue sharing for artists. One of the key points to watch from 1Q19 earnings is whether the recent switch in SM Entertainment’s Chinese distributor has led to revenue growth. In February 2019, SM Entertainment signed an exclusive deal with Tencent Music Entertainment (its previous partner was Alibaba) for the distribution of its music in China (likely based on a minimum guarantee plus revenue sharing model, similar to YG Entertainment’s contract). In addition, the growth of JYP Entertainment’s digital music distribution arising from its global distribution partnership with The Orchard (entered on March 1st) is also worth noting. We forecast JYP Entertainment to increase its exposure to the global music service market, aided by its partnership with The Orchard with global networks. Figure 3. Major K-Pop channels’ YouTube views are on the increase (mn views) 600 SM (SMTOWN) JYP (JYP Entertainment + TWICE) YG (YG Entertainment + BLACKPINK + iKON + WINNER) Big Hit (ibighit + BangtanTV) 400 200 0 15.9 16.1 16.5 16.9 17.1 17.5 17.9 18.1 18.5 18.9 19.1 Source: YouTube, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Figure 4. Combined YouTube revenue of Korea’s three major entertainment firms to continue to grow (Wbn) 40 YouTube (Google) net revenue 35 30 27 20 17 12 10 0 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 3 Entertainment April 24, 2019 Shares of YG and SM to recover ahead of earnings announcements Since February, the three major entertainment firms have displayed differenced valuations, as stability has come into greater focus amid rising uncertainties. JYP Entertainment with multiple positive events has outperformed the sector. The different valuations of the three major entertainment firms will likely be synchronized before and after the 1Q19 earnings announcements. We believe that valuation multiple synchronization will be driven by the growing profile of K-pop, which should be confirmed with related 1Q19 data, including: 1) unrivalled growth in YouTube views (YG); 2) the effects of partnerships with new digital music distributors (SM and JYP); and 3) North American tour concert attendances (YG, SM). Of note, 2019 Billboard Music Awards will likely be a symbolic event that points to the growing profile of K-Pop Table 1.Market cap changes and valuations of the three major entertainment firms Market cap % from annual % from annual 19F P/E 20F P/E TT\P 1Q19 key points (Wbn ) low high W60,000 YouTube revenue, BLACKPINK YG 680 +6.4 -23.5 34.8 17.1 (Maintain) performances W59,000 Effects of the switch in the Chinese SM 953 +9 -22.8 29.8 20.7 (Maintain) distributor (Tencent) W41,000 (Lower Effects of the partnership with a new digital JYP 1093 +12.1 -6.7 31.8 24.3 TP) music distributor (Orchard) Global K -Pop fan base expansion, and 2019 Combined 2726 +8.2 -15.4 31.7 20.8 Billboard Music Awards Source : Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Figure 5. Combined OP and market cap of the three major entertainment firms (Wbn) (Wbn) 200 5 Domestic/Japan earnings (▲▲ ) Domestic/Japan earnings (-) Domestic/Japan earnings (▲) Japan expectations ( ▲▲) Japan expectations (-) Global expectation (▲▲ ) 160 4 China expectations ( → ?) Domestic/Japan earnings (-) ▼ China expectations ( → ) 120 Combined OP ▲ ▼ 3 Combined market cap 80 2 40 1 0 0 -40 -1 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Note: Based on FY1 / Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Figure 6. Despite negative issues, the overall industry trend supports valuation increase (x) Domestic/Japan earnings (-) 90 3 co's combined P/E China expectations (▲ → ▼) Domestic/Japan earnings (▲▲) Domestic/Japan earnings (-) Domestic/Japan earnings (▲) Japan expectations (▲▲) Japan expectations (-) Global expectations (▲▲) China expectations ( ▼ → ?) 60 Earnings growth + expectations Industry target P/E 40x 30 0 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Note: Based on FY2; 2019-20 earnings are based on our estimates Source : Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 4 April 24, 2019 Entertainment YG Entertainment (122870 KQ) Undervalued even after factoring out half of Big Bang Entertainment 1Q19 preview: OP of W2.8bn For 1Q19, we expect YG Entertainment to post consolidated revenue of W70.4bn and operating profit of W2.8bn, which is below the consensus of W3.6bn.
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