Market Feasibility Analysis Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II Fredericksburg, Virginia
Prepared for: Orchard Development Project #17-5668
Site Inspection: January 11, 2018 Effective Date: January 11, 2018 Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II | Executive Summary
TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...... VII 1. INTRODUCTION...... 1 A. Overview of Subject...... 1 B. Purpose...... 1 C. Format of Report ...... 2 D. Client, Intended User, and Intended Use ...... 2 E. Applicable Requirements ...... 2 F. Scope of Work ...... 2 G. Report Limitations ...... 2 2. PROJECT DESCRIPTION ...... 3 A. Project Overview ...... 3 B. Project Type and Target Market...... 3 C. Building Types and Placement...... 3 D. Detailed Project Description...... 4 1. Project Description...... 4 3. SITE AND NEIGHBORHOOD ANALYSIS...... 6 A. Site Analysis...... 6 1. Site Location...... 6 2. Size, Shape, and Topography ...... 6 3. General Description of Land Uses Surrounding the Subject Site ...... 6 4. Specific Identification of Land Uses Surrounding the Subject Site ...... 9 B. Neighborhood Analysis...... 11 1. Neighborhood Investment and Planning Activities ...... 11 2. Public Safety...... 12 C. Site Visibility and Accessibility...... 13 1. Visibility...... 13 2. Vehicular Access...... 13 3. Availability of Public Transit...... 13 4. Pedestrian Access ...... 13 5. Accessibility Improvements under Construction and Planned ...... 13 D. Residential Support Network ...... 14 1. Key Facilities and Services near the Subject Sites...... 14 1. Essential Services ...... 15 2. Commercial Goods and Services...... 17 3. Other Facilities and Features ...... 18 4. ECONOMIC CONTEXT ...... 19 A. Introduction...... 19 B. Labor Force, Resident Employment, and Unemployment ...... 19 C. Commutation Patterns ...... 19 D. County At-Place Employment...... 20 1. Trends in Total At-Place Employment...... 20 2. At-Place Employment by Industry Sector ...... 21 3. Major Employers...... 23 4. Wage Trends ...... 23 5. HOUSING MARKET AREA...... 25 A. Introduction...... 25 B. Delineation of Market Area...... 25
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6. DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS ...... 27 A. Introduction and Methodology ...... 27 B. Trends in Population and Households...... 27 1. Recent Past Trends ...... 27 2. Estimated and Projected Trends...... 27 3. Building Permit Trends...... 28 C. Demographic Characteristics...... 29 1. Age Distribution and Household Type ...... 29 2. Renter Household Characteristics...... 30 3. Income Characteristics...... 32 4. Cost-Burdened Renter Households...... 33 7. COMPETITIVE HOUSING ANALYSIS ...... 35 A. Introduction and Sources of Information...... 35 B. Market Area Housing Stock ...... 35 1. Overview of Housing Stock ...... 35 C. Survey of General Occupancy Rental Communities ...... 36 1. Introduction to the Rental Housing Survey...... 36 2. Location...... 37 3. Age of Communities...... 37 4. Structure Type...... 37 5. Size of Communities...... 37 6. Vacancy Rates ...... 38 7. Rent Concessions ...... 38 8. Absorption History...... 39 D. Analysis of Rental Pricing and Product ...... 40 1. Payment of Utility Costs...... 40 2. Unit Features...... 40 3. Parking ...... 40 4. Community Amenities ...... 41 5. Distribution of Units by Bedroom Type ...... 42 6. Effective Rents ...... 43 E. Derivation of Market Rent...... 44 F. Achievable Restricted Rents...... 48 G. Proposed and Under Construction Rental Communities ...... 49 8. FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS...... 54 A. Key Findings...... 54 1. Site and Neighborhood Analysis ...... 54 2. Economic Context ...... 54 3. Demographic Analysis...... 54 4. Competitive Housing Analysis...... 55 B. Derivation of Demand ...... 55 1. Methodology...... 55 2. Demand Analysis...... 58 3. Conclusions on Demand...... 60 C. Target Markets ...... 60 D. Product Evaluation ...... 60 E. Price Position...... 61 F. Affordability – Capture and Penetration Analysis ...... 64 1. Methodology...... 64 2. Affordability Analysis ...... 65 3. Penetration Analysis ...... 66
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4. Conclusions on Affordability and Penetration ...... 67 G. VHDA Demand Analysis...... 68 H. Absorption Estimate...... 69 I. Impact on Existing Market...... 70 9. APPENDIX 1 UNDERLYING ASSUMPTIONS AND LIMITING CONDITIONS ...... 71 10. APPENDIX 2 NCHMA CHECKLIST...... 73 11. VHDA CERTIFICATION ...... 76 12. APPENDIX 3 ANALYST RESUMES...... 77 13. APPENDIX 4 MARKET AREA RENTAL COMMUNITY PROFILES...... 78
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TABLES, FIGURES AND MAPS
Table 1 LIHTC Income and Rent Limits, Washington-Arlington-Alexandria HUD Metro Area...... 1 Table 2 Salient Project Information, Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II ...... 5 Table 3 Unit Mix, Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II...... 5 Table 4 Key Facilities and Services...... 14 Table 5 Spotsylvania County Public Schools, 2016-2017...... 16 Table 6 Labor Force and Unemployment Rates ...... 19 Table 7 Commutation Data ...... 20 Table 8 Major Employers, 2017...... 23 Table 9 Average Annual Wage...... 24 Table 10 Population and Household Projections ...... 28 Table 11 Building Permits by Structure Type ...... 29 Table 12 2018 Age Distribution ...... 30 Table 13 2010 Households by Household Type...... 30 Table 14 Renter Tenure Trends...... 31 Table 15 Renter Households by Age of Householder...... 31 Table 16 Renter Households by Persons per Household...... 32 Table 17 2018 Household Income...... 32 Table 18 2018 Household Income by Tenure...... 33 Table 19 Rent Burden by Household Income ...... 34 Table 20 Rental Units by Structure Type ...... 35 Table 21 Rental Units by Year Built ...... 36 Table 22 Value of Owner Occupied Housing Stock ...... 36 Table 23 Rental Communities Summary ...... 38 Table 24 Utility Arrangement and Unit Features - Jackson Village Market Area ...... 41 Table 25 Rental Communities- Community Amenities, Jackson Village Market Area...... 42 Table 26 Unit Distribution, Size and Pricing, Jackson Village Market Area ...... 43 Table 27 Market Rent Analysis – One-Bedroom Units ...... 45 Table 28 Market Rent Analysis – Two-Bedroom Units ...... 46 Table 29 Market Rent Analysis – Three-Bedroom Units...... 47 Table 30 Market Rent Advantage - Summary...... 47 Table 31 Market Rent Advantage – Adjustment Table...... 48 Table 32 Achievable Tax Credit Rent...... 49 Table 33 Derivation of Net Demand, Jackson Village...... 59 Table 34 2019 Total and Renter Income Distribution ...... 65 Table 35 Affordability Analysis ...... 66 Table 36 Penetration Analysis ...... 67 Table 37 VHDA Demand by Overall Income Targeting ...... 69
Figure 1 Jackson Village Schematic Plan...... 3 Figure 2 Jackson Village Schematic Plan...... 8 Figure 3 Views of Subject Site ...... 9 Figure 4 Views of Surrounding Land Uses ...... 10 Figure 5 At-Place Employment ...... 21 Figure 6 Total Employment 2Q 2017...... 22 Figure 7 Total Employment and Employment Change by Sector 2011 to 2Q 2017 ...... 22 Figure 8 Annualized Wage Data by Sector ...... 24 Figure 9 Price Position of Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II ...... 62
Map 1 Site Location...... 7 Map 2 Jackson Village Market Area CrimeRisk Index...... 12
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Map 3 Neighborhood Features ...... 15 Map 4 Jackson Village Market Area ...... 26 Map 5 Competitive Rental Communities, Jackson Village Market Area ...... 37 Map 6 Pipeline Rental Communities, Jackson Village Market Area ...... 53
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Orchard Development has retained Real Property Research Group, Inc. (RPRG) to conduct a market assessment to evaluate the proposed Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II Low Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) general occupancy multifamily rental community to be located in Spotsylvania County, Virginia. The subject is the second phase of the 169-unit Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village LIHTC community which is already under construction.
The developer’s proposed unit distribution, square footages, and rents for the subject are as follows:
Utility AMI Units # Bed # Bath Sq Ft Net Rent Rent/Sq Ft Allowance Gross Rent 60% 18 1 1 790 $1,075 $1.36 $93 $1,168 60% 55 2 2 1,088 $1,300 $1.19 $118 $1,418 60% 3 3 2 1,402 $1,450 $1.03 $135 $1,585 Total/Avg 76 1,030 $1,253 $1.22 $1,365 Source: Orchard Development Corporation
Based on our research, including a site visit January 11, 2018, we have arrived at the following findings: Site Analysis: The site is an appropriate location for an affordable rental community. The site will be visible from US-1 and is located two miles from Interstate 95 via exit 126. Tenants will enjoy easy access to a wide array of shopping, dining, medical, and other services. Moreover, the access to I-95 as well as relative proximity to the new commuter rail station less than six miles away will allow access to employment nodes in northern Virginia and Washington, DC. Economic Analysis: Led by a strong Trade-Transportation-Utilities sector as well as robust Government, Education Health, and Leisure-Hospitality sectors, Spotsylvania County’s unemployment rate has been consistently lower than or comparable to that of Virginia which has experienced relatively low unemployment rates, and significantly lower than that of the nation at a whole. During the first ten months of 2017, 4.8 percent of the Spotsylvania County labor force was unemployed, compared to 3.8 percent of the Virginia labor force and 4.6 percent of the United States labor force. Spotsylvania County’s at-place employment growth has grown significantly since 2006. Employment has grown every year since 2000, except for 2009 when the county lost almost 1,200 jobs at the peak of the recession. The county recovered all of those jobs the following year and employment has continued to grow. As of second quarter 2017, there were 35,438 jobs in the county, which is a new peak for the county. Since 2006, the county has increased its at-place employment by 19 percent, adding almost 5,700 jobs. Demographic Analysis: The Jackson Village market area is a developing area that saw tremendous growth between 2000 and 2010, growing 3.0 percent annually during that time. A forecast of continued household growth for the next five years should continue to generate demand for housing units of all types. The estimated 2018 median household income in the market area is $75,960 in 2018, 15 percent less than the regional median household income of $88,887. The median income among renters is more moderate at $51,961, with 35 percent of market’s renter households earning between $35,000 and $75,000.
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Competitive Analysis: Vacancy rates are stable across the various rental community types surveyed by RPRG within the Jackson Village market area, indicative of a healthy demand for rental housing in general. The vacancy rate among reporting, stabilized communities in the market area is 2.7 percent, indicative of a healthy market. The stabilized vacancy rate among LIHTC communities is 2.1 percent. One-bedroom units average $1,094 for 776 square feet, which translates to an average one-bedroom net rent per square foot of $1.41. Two-bedroom rents average $1,200 for 1,066 square feet, amounting to an average rent per square foot of $1.13. Three-bedroom rents average $1,366 per month for 1,273 square feet with an average rent per square foot of $1.07. RPRG has identified seven multifamily rental developments which are reasonably likely to deliver units in the next three years. Three of these communities will include LIHTC units. Based on these findings, we have arrived at the following conclusions: Net Demand for Rental Housing: Accounting for household trends, necessary unit replacement, and a stabilized structural vacancy rate of 5.0 percent, RPRG projects the market will have an excess demand of approximately 189 rental units in the subject’s market area between 2018 and 2021. Affordability: The subject would need to capture 0.8 percent of all income-qualified households in the market area and 1.9 percent of all income-qualified renter households to lease all 76 units. Given the demographic and competitive characteristics of the market, we believe these capture rates are achievable. Penetration: The penetration rate suggests that the inventory of affordable units including the subject, similarly priced market rate units, and LIHTC pipeline units will address approximately 72 percent of all income-qualified renters in the market. Evaluation of Proposed Product: Considered in the context of the competitive environment, the relative position of the subject t is as follows: o Structure Type: Elevator-serviced midrise units will differentiate the community from the standard garden-style product dominating the local market, and will give the subject a significant competitive advantage. o Unit Distribution: The developer’s proposed unit distribution includes 23 percent one-bedroom units, 73 percent two-bedroom units, and four percent three- bedroom units. The market wide average unit mix includes 28 percent are one- bedroom units, 57 percent are two-bedroom units, and 15 percent are three- bedroom units. The subject’s mix skews more heavily towards two-bedroom units at the expense of three-bedroom units. This market includes several townhome communities, particularly those offering tax credit units, which leads to high proportion of larger floorplans. The subject’s ability to offer smaller floorplans at an affordable community will differentiate it from much of what is currently offered and allow it to meet the needs of an underserved population: smaller households seeking modern, affordable units. Given the target markets for the subject of single adults, couples, small families, and retirees/empty nesters, this unit mix is appropriate. o Unit Size: As the subject’s majority unit type as proposed by the developer, two- bedroom units will average 1,088 square feet, comparable to the average two- bedroom unit size of 1,066 square feet. The subject’s one-bedroom units will be 790 square feet, three percent larger than the market average of 776 square feet. The subject’s three-bedroom units will be 1,402 square feet, ten percent larger than the market average of 1,273 square feet. These unit sizes will be attractive to renters.
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o Unit Features: The proposed standard unit features will include a full slate of black kitchen appliances—range, refrigerator, dishwasher, built-in microwave, and garbage disposal. Kitchens will have laminate countertops. Flooring will be vinyl plank in the kitchen and living areas with vinyl sheet flooring in the bathrooms and carpet in the bedrooms. Units will have nine foot ceilings; oversized windows; mini blinds; raised panel wood doors; full-sized washer/dryer; lightweight concrete sound insulation between floors; large closets; low flow shower heads; Energy Star appliances and lighting; and high efficiency heating/cooling. These features are comparable or superior to most of the market rate communities with only the newest communities offering a higher grade of finishes, typically including granite countertops. The features package easily surpasses the oldest LIHTC communities which do not include washer/dryer or dishwashers; the newer LIHTC communities have a similar appliance package but only Valor offers residents a comparable or superior level of finishes. o Community Amenities: All buildings will be elevator serviced with controlled access entry and interior trash & recycling disposal. Each building will have a lobby with designer furnishings, mail room and package lockers. Residents will have access to the common area amenities constructed as part of Phase I of Orchard Ridge, including a centralized clubhouse with lounge, kitchen, and continuous access fitness center. Outdoor amenities include swimming pool, picnic/grilling area, dog park, and bike storage. The subject's amenities are consistent with those provided at the newest market rate communities, aside from the absence of a business/computer center. This package not only exceeds what is available at most LIHTC communities, it is comparable to the newest market rate properties and will be well received by potential residents. o Parking: The subject is offering free surface parking which is the standard in this market. o Rents: The proposed rents are generally mid to upper range with respect to cost when compared to existing communities. The client’s proposed floorplans are generally in the midrange for this market and the three-bedroom unit is quite generous. Given the location, proposed features and amenities, and elevator- serviced buildings, the subject’s units are appropriately priced and would be attractive to potential tenants. Absorption Estimate: While most of the recent absorption experience has been market rate communities, two new general occupancy LIHTC communities have opened in the market area since 2002. The 72-unit Overlook Terrace opened February in 2016 and stabilized in August 2016 for an average absorption of 12 units per month. Overlook offers two- and three-bedroom floorplans and all units are restricted to households at or below 50 percent AMI. Valor Apartments opened in March 2017 with 128 LIHTC units restricted to households at or below 60 percent AMI. The property stabilized in November for an average absorption pace of 15 units per month. Meanwhile, units at the recently opened market rate communities have been absorbed rapidly as the number of households in the area continues to grow and vacancies in the market area remain low. We estimate that Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II will lease units at an average pace of 10-12 units per month. The location of the subject site will offer residents good access to retail and services as well as the regional highway system. Combining these conveniences with the subject’s affordable rents, will make it very competitive in this market. That said, we temper our absorption estimate to reflect the reality that the LIHTC subject will have to attract renters within a very specific income range. This absorption estimate accounts for the fact that affordable properties can be slower to lease up because applicants must fit
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into the appropriate income bands. Assuming this pace and a structural vacancy rate of five percent, the 76-unit Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II would be 95 percent leased within approximately six to seven months of opening.
Final Conclusion: The present market indicators point to a healthy market – stabilized vacancy is well below five percent. The area is projected to continue to add new households at a steady rate, which will only continue to create demand for housing of all types. We believe that the subject will provide a value-added, rental community that will assist in meeting the market’s demand for affordable high quality rental options. Moreover, the subject’s convenient access to shopping and dining options as well as the regional highway network will make it a desirable addition to the rental market.
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1. INTRODUCTION
A. Overview of Subject The subject of this report is the proposed second phase of Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village Low Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) general occupancy rental community to be located in Spotsylvania County, Virginia, approximately four miles south of the city of Fredericksburg. The community will contain 76 units in one-, two-, and three-bedroom floorplans. The units will be restricted to households earning up to 60 percent of areawide median income. Applicable income and rent limits for this area are presented Table 1. The community will be comprised of two midrise elevator-serviced buildings. Table 1 LIHTC Income and Rent Limits, Washington-Arlington-Alexandria HUD Metro Area
HUD 2017 Median Household Income Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD HUD Metro FMR Area $110,300 Very Low Income for 4 Person Household $55,150 2017 Computed Area Median Gross Income $110,300 Utility Allowance: Efficiency $0 1 Bedroom $93 2 Bedroom $118 3 Bedroom $135 Household Income Limits by Household Size: Household Size 30% 40% 50% 60% 80% 100% 120% 150% 200% 1 Person $23,190 $30,920 $38,650 $46,380 $61,840 $77,300 $92,760 $115,950 $154,600 2 Persons $26,490 $35,320 $44,150 $52,980 $70,640 $88,300 $105,960 $132,450 $176,600 3 Persons $29,790 $39,720 $49,650 $59,580 $79,440 $99,300 $119,160 $148,950 $198,600 4 Persons $33,090 $44,120 $55,150 $66,180 $88,240 $110,300 $132,360 $165,450 $220,600 5 Persons $35,760 $47,680 $59,600 $71,520 $95,360 $119,200 $143,040 $178,800 $238,400 6 Persons $38,400 $51,200 $64,000$0 $76,800$0 $102,400$0 $128,000$0 $153,600$0 $192,000$0 $256,000 87 Persons $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Imputed Income Limits by Number of Bedroom (Assuming 1.5 persons per bedroom): # Bed- Persons rooms 30% 40% 50% 60% 80% 100% 120% 150% 200% 1 0 $23,190 $30,920 $38,650 $46,380 $61,840 $77,300 $92,760 $115,950 $154,600 1.5 1 $24,840 $33,120 $41,400 $49,680 $66,240 $82,800 $99,360 $124,200 $165,600 3 2 $29,790 $39,720 $49,650 $59,580 $79,440 $99,300 $119,160 $148,950 $198,600 4.5 3 $34,425 $45,900 $57,375 $68,850 $91,800 $114,750 $137,700 $172,125 $229,500 6 4 $38,400 $51,200 $64,000 $76,800 $102,400 $128,000 $153,600 $192,000 $256,000 LIHTC Tenant Rent Limits by Number of Bedrooms (assumes 1.5 persons per bedroom: 30% 40% 50% 60% 80% # Persons Gross Net Gross Net Gross Net Gross Net Gross Net 1 Bedroom $621 $528 $828 $735 $1,035 $942 $1,242 $1,149 $1,656 $1,563 2 Bedroom $744 $626 $993 $875 $1,241 $1,123 $1,489 $1,371 $1,986 $1,868 3 Bedroom $860 $725 $1,147 $1,012 $1,434 $1,299 $1,721 $1,586 $2,295 $2,160 Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
B. Purpose The purpose of this market study is to perform a market feasibility analysis through a demographic analysis of the defined market area, a competitive housing analysis, a derivation of demand and an affordability analysis.
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C. Format of Report The report format is Comprehensive. Accordingly, the market analyst has considered the National Council of Housing Market Analysts (NCHMA) model content standards. The market study also addresses all required items set forth in the 2017 Market Study Guidelines of the Virginia Housing Development Authority (VHDA).
D. Client, Intended User, and Intended Use The Client is Orchard Development. Along with the Client, the Intended Users are representatives of VHDA and potential investors. The subject report will be submitted to VHDA as part of an application for four percent Low-Income Housing Tax Credits.
E. Applicable Requirements This market study is intended to conform to the requirements of the National Council of Housing Market Analyst’s (NCHMA) content standards and VHDA’s 2017 Market Study Guidelines.
F. Scope of Work To determine the appropriate scope of work for the assignment, we considered the intended use of the market study, the needs of the user, the complexity of the property, and other pertinent factors. Our concluded scope of work is described below:
Please refer to Appendix I for a detailed list of NCHMA requirements and the corresponding pages of requirements within the report. Nicole Mathison conducted visits to the subject site, neighborhood, and market area on January 11, 2018.
Primary information gathered through field and phone interviews was used throughout the various sections of this report. The interviewees included rental community leasing agents, property managers, and local developers, as well as Planner Jacob Pastwik with Spotsylvania County and Development Administrator and Code Enforcement Officer Marne Sherman with the City of Fredericksburg.
All pertinent information obtained was incorporated in the appropriate section(s) of this report.
G. Report Limitations The conclusions reached in a market assessment are inherently subjective and should not be relied upon as a determinative predictor of results that will actually occur in the marketplace. There can be no assurance that the estimates made or assumptions employed in preparing this report will in fact be realized or that other methods or assumptions might not be appropriate. The conclusions expressed in this report are as of the date of this report, and an analysis conducted as of another date may require different conclusions. The actual results achieved will depend on a variety of factors, including the performance of management, the impact of changes in general and local economic conditions, and the absence of material changes in the regulatory or competitive environment. Reference is made to the statement of Underlying Assumptions and Limiting Conditions contained in Appendix I of this report.
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2. PROJECT DESCRIPTION
A. Project Overview Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II will offer 76 LIHTC rental apartments restricted to households at or below 60 percent AMI. The project will consist of two four-story elevator-serviced buildings. The property is slated to contain 18 one-bedroom units, 55 two-bedroom units, and three three- bedroom units. Phase I of the subject is currently under construction; it consists of four elevator- serviced midrise buildings containing 169 units as well as a clubhouse and common area amenities to which subject residents will have access.
B. Project Type and Target Market Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II will be an LIHTC community targeted to a general occupancy tenant base. All of the units are restricted to households earning up to 60 percent AMI. With a unit mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom units, the community targets a range of renter households, including single-person households, couples, roommates, and small families.
C. Building Types and Placement Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II will consist of two four-story residential structures with elevators. The new buildings will be located southeast of the four residential buildings comprising Phase I, as well as the clubhouse building with common area amenities to which subject residents will have access. The subject buildings are labeled 4912 and 4908 in the overall site plan (Figure 1).
Figure 1 Jackson Village Schematic Plan
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D. Detailed Project Description
1. Project Description Table 2 summarizes the proposed unit types to be offered at Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II, presenting unit distribution, unit sizes, and rents. The project sponsor proposes to develop one-, two-, and three-bedroom units. The proposed unit mix is weighted toward two-bedroom units, which account for 72 percent of the unit total (55 out of 76 units). One-bedroom units account for 24 percent of the proposed distribution (18 units), while the subject’s three three-bedroom units will be four percent of units onsite.
One-bedroom units will be 790 square feet. Two-bedroom units will average 1,088 square feet. Three-bedroom units will measure 1,402 square feet. All of the one-bedroom units will contain one full bathroom. Two-bedroom and three-bedroom units will have two full bathrooms.
The proposed rent is $1,075 per month ($1.36 per square foot) for one-bedroom units. Two- bedroom units will rent for $1,300 ($1.19 per square foot). Three-bedroom units will rent for $1,450 ($1.03 per square foot).
Monthly rents at Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II will include unrestricted parking in the property’s on-site surface lot as well as trash removal. All other utility bills—cold water/sewer, hot water, electric cooking, electric heating and cooling, and general electricity—will be the direct responsibility of future tenants.
All Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II units will be equipped with a full slate of black kitchen appliances—range, refrigerator, dishwasher, built-in microwave, and garbage disposal (Table 2). Kitchens will have laminate countertops. Flooring will be vinyl plank in the kitchen and living areas with vinyl sheet flooring in the bathrooms and carpet in the bedrooms. Units will have nine foot ceilings; oversized windows; mini blinds; raised panel wood doors; full-sized washer/dryer; lightweight concrete sound insulation between floors; large closets; low flow shower heads; Energy Star appliances and lighting; and high efficiency heating/cooling systems.
The community will be built to the National Green Building Standard Silver Level. All buildings will be elevator serviced with controlled access entry and interior trash and recycling disposal. Each building will have a lobby with designer furnishings, mail room and package lockers.
Residents will have access to all common area amenities provided in Phase I. This includes a centralized clubhouse with lounge, kitchen, and continuous access fitness center. Outdoor amenities include swimming pool, picnic/grilling area, dog park, and bike storage.
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Table 2 Salient Project Information, Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II
Project Information Additional Information Number of Residential Buildings Two Construction Start Date June 2018 Building Type Midrise Date of First Move-In March 2019 Number of Stories Four Construction Finish Date June 2019 Construction Type New Const. Parking Type Surface Design Characteristics (exterior) Brick and Hardi Board Parking Cost $0 National Green Building Standard Silver Level; elevator Kitchen Amenities access; controlled access entry to all buildings; interior Dishwasher Yes trash/recycling; and lobby with mail room/package lockers in Disposal Yes Community Amenities each building. Residents will have access to Phase I amenities which include bike storage; dog park; clubhouse with Microwave Yes gathering room, kitchen & 24/7 fitness center; outdoor Range Yes swimming pool; and picnic/grilling area. Refrigerator Yes Utilities Included Laminate countertops; black appliances; vinyl plank flooring Water/Sewer Tenant in living areas with carpet in bedrooms; nine foot ceilings; Trash Owner oversized windows; mini blinds; raised panel wood doors; full- Heat Tenant Unit Features sized washer/dryer; lightweight concrete sound insulation Heat Source Elec between floors; large closets; low flow shower heads; Energy Star appliances and lighting; high efficiency heating/cooling Hot/Water Tenant systems. Electricity Tenant Other: Source: Orchard Development Corporation
Table 3 Unit Mix, Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II
Utility AMI Units # Bed # Bath Sq Ft Net Rent Rent/Sq Ft Allowance Gross Rent 60% 18 1 1 790 $1,075 $1.36 $93 $1,168 60% 55 2 2 1,088 $1,300 $1.19 $118 $1,418 60% 3 3 2 1,402 $1,450 $1.03 $135 $1,585 Total/Avg 76 1,030 $1,253 $1.22 $1,365 Source: Orchard Development Corporation
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3. SITE AND NEIGHBORHOOD ANALYSIS
A. Site Analysis
1. Site Location The subject site is located at 9121 Jefferson David Highway (Map 1). The site is located in Spotsylvania County, approximately four miles south of the City of Fredericksburg, but it will have a Fredericksburg address.
2. Size, Shape, and Topography According to information provided by the developer, the subject will be located on the southern- most portion of the much larger Jackson Village development which will also include single family attached homes, retail, and medical space (Parcel H, Figure 2). Within that site, the subject will be on the southeastern portion with Phase I of Orchard Ridge, occupying the rest of the site. The subject site is 2.6 square acres and roughly rectangular in shape. Topography of the site appeared generally flat (Figure 3).
3. General Description of Land Uses Surrounding the Subject Site The subject site is less than one mile south of Cosner’s Corner, one of the county’s largest retail centers with approximately 980,000 square feet of retail and medical space. Cosner’s Corner is the primary retail portion of the Cosner Master Planned Development and is located on the west side of I-95. The complex was placed in service in July 2006. Since then, big box retailers such as Super Target (which includes a large selection of grocery items and a pharmacy), World Market, Kohl’s, Marshalls, Ross, PetSmart, Jo-Ann Fabric and numerous other national retailers, banks, restaurants and service businesses have occupied spaces. Additionally, two pharmacies, CVS Pharmacy and Rite Aid, are located inside or adjacent to the complex. A new Publix grocery store is under construction on the southernmost portion of Cosner’s Corner which is the portion closest to the subject site, creating a convenient amenity for residents.
To the north of Cosner’s Corner is the Southpoint Shoppes retail center. Southpoint tenants include, among others, Walmart, Lowe’s Home Improvement, Buffalo Wild Wings, SunTrust, and a large American Fitness Center. This retail center currently has 750,000 square feet of space and another 600,000 square feet is planned. The area east of I-95 is typically referred to as Cosner East. Cosner East is connected to Cosner’s Corner via the Spotsylvania Parkway Bridge over I-95 which includes a pedestrian/bike trail. Cosner East is home to Spotsylvania Regional Medical Center as well as several newer apartment communities.
The subject will be located along the southwestern boundary of the much larger Jackson Village development (Parcel H, Figure 2). Proposed uses north of the subject (beyond Phase I of Orchard Ridge) include for-sale townhomes and stacked flats, as well as additional apartment communities. Uses also include commercial/retail/medical structures with a movie theatre specifically targeted for the site. The area immediately north of the subject, not included in the Jackson Village development, consists of a modest neighborhood of mobile homes and single family detached homes of varying quality located along the unpaved portion of Old Telegraph Road. The area south of the subject site contains industrial uses including the massive Pick-a-Part auto salvage yard and a building materials supplier.
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Immediately west of the subject site, on the western side of US-1, is a mid-century motel currently used as a flea market on the weekends. Set further back from the road is a large historic home currently used as an antique store which is open daily. Further north on the west side of US-1 is a used tire retailer/auto repair center at a considerable setback; only the signage and driveway is visible from the road. Further north is Commonwealth Center. The buildings comprising this industrial park are also set back from the road and accessed via Commonwealth Drive. The park includes mostly light industrial/warehouse uses and a large self-storage facility; however it also home to an Assisted Living facility. The western side of US-1 also contains a significant amount of land which is undeveloped.
Map 1 Site Location
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Figure 2 Jackson Village Schematic Plan
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Figure 3 Views of Subject Site
Entrance way to both Phase I and II from US-1; clubhouse Site is to the right and behind construction of Phase I building under construction to the right will be used by both phases
4. Specific Identification of Land Uses Surrounding the Subject Site The land uses directly bordering the subject sites, starting from the north and proceeding in a clockwise direction, are as follows (Figure 4):
North: Immediately north of the subject, Phase I of Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village is under construction. Further north are several older single family detached homes and mobile homes; the structures are in varying states of repair. Further north is undeveloped land which constitutes the rest of the Jackson Village development followed by Cosner’s Corner Shopping Center. East: Undeveloped land which is part of the Jackson Village development; according to the generalized development plan, this area is designated for townhomes. Southeast: Rear entrance and storage of cars for Pick-A-Part auto salvage. South: A single family detached home currently being used for the sales office of a small used car lot is located adjacent to the subject along the US-1. Further south is the front entrance and management office for Pick-A-Part auto salvage. West: West of US-1 is the Massaponax Flea Market and Deep Creek Vintage antique store. Further north is undeveloped land, followed by the entrance to PAL Used Tires and Auto Repair and then the entrance to Commonwealth Center industrial park. The industrial park is also home to an Assisted Living facility.
Page 9 Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II | Site and Neighborhood Analysis
Figure 4 Views of Surrounding Land Uses
Phase I of Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village is under Modest single family detached dwelling of the type found along construction north of site unpaved portion of Old Telegraph Road north of site
Construction east of subject as seen from Old Telegraph Road Rear entrance to salvage yard as seen from Telegraph Rd terminus
Small used car dealership south of site fronting US-1 Deep Creek Vintage antique store on the west side of US-1
Page 10 Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II | Site and Neighborhood Analysis
Undeveloped land on the west side of US-1 Entrance to Commonwealth Industrial Park on the west side of US-1
B. Neighborhood Analysis
1. Neighborhood Investment and Planning Activities At completion, the 241-acre Jackson Village development will include up to 2,270 homes. The plan for Jackson Village calls for up to 1,190 condos and townhouses, 695 apartments and 385 age- restricted units that could include anything from a nursing home to detached homes. In addition, the developer plans to build a four-lane road to a proposed bridge over Interstate 95. The bridge would connect Jackson Village to the proposed 2,607-home Alexander’s Crossing, which would be on the east side of I–95 on Massaponax Church Road. The proposed Alexander’s Crossing development is located directly across I-95 from Jackson Village. This large mixed use project eventually planned to be connected to Jackson Village via a new bridge over I-95. Project proffers state the property shall be developed for no greater than 2,607 residential units, including a housing mix of 1,118 multifamily units; 1,201 attached single family units; 518 single family detached units; and 230 senior living units. Plans also include 1.5 million square feet of commercial space to include office, light industrial, and retail uses as well as a hotel. Developer Walton Virginia, LLC acknowledged the phasing is subject to change if they are able to attract a corporate tenant to a site closer to I-95, however more than likely Phase I would include single family detached units in proximity to Massaponax Church Road on the far eastern side of the project area and developing in towards I-95 where more intense land uses are planned. Planner Jacob Pastwik did not have a firm timeline because the developer anticipates that development will be market driven, however they did project a three-year buildout on Phase I.
As noted earlier, retail/commercial uses are still being developed at Southpoint. This area is also being developed with multifamily residential uses as well. Spotsylvania County-based developer W.J. Vakos Companies is developing the 76-acre Southpoint Landing development along Southpoint Parkway. According to preliminary plans, Southpoint Landing would be a mixed-use development resulting in as many as 830 multifamily units, the first 280 units of which opened as Abberly Southpoint last year. A parcel located on the east side of Southpoint Parkway south of CarMax is designated for 450,000 square feet of commercial/retail space and additional multi- family residential units.
The Crossroads Virginia Railway Express (VRE) commuter rail station that opened in November 2015, is approximately 5.6 miles from the proposed site and is Spotsylvania County’s only VRE
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station. This station is equidistant from Washington, DC and Richmond. Developers hope to deliver a research park around this station with almost a million square feet of office space to attract high paying technology jobs to Spotsylvania County. Crossroads Station, the proposed 46-acre development located off the U.S. 17 Bypass at Crossroads Business Park, would have up to 610 apartments and up to 950,000 square feet of commercial space. At present there are plans to build 187 multifamily units, with the rest to be developed based on demonstrated demand.
2. Public Safety CrimeRisk data is an analysis tool for crime provided by Applied Geographic Solutions (AGS). CrimeRisk is a block-group level index that measures the relative risk of crime compared to a national average. AGS analyzes known socio-economic indicators for local jurisdictions that report crime statistics to the FBI under the Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) program. Based on detailed modeling of these relationships, CrimeRisk provides a detailed view of the risk of total crime as well as specific crime types at the block group level. In accordance with the reporting procedures used in the UCR reports, aggregate indexes have been prepared for personal and property crimes separately as well as a total index. However it must be recognized that these are unweighted indexes, in that a murder is weighted no more heavily than purse snatching in this computation. The analysis provides a useful measure of the relative overall crime risk in an area but should be used in conjunction with other measures.
Map 2 displays the 2017 CrimeRisk Index for the block groups in the general vicinity of the subject. The relative risk of crime is displayed in gradations from green (least risk) to red (most risk). As is common in a less developed area, crime is relatively low throughout the market area, including the area surrounding the subject site.
Map 2 Jackson Village Market Area CrimeRisk Index
Page 12 Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II | Site and Neighborhood Analysis
C. Site Visibility and Accessibility
1. Visibility The community will have full visibility from US-1, a four-lane arterial with daily traffic counts near the site of more than 13,000 vehicles.
2. Vehicular Access The subject community will have direct access from US-1. US-1 continues north to the city of Fredericksburg and on to northern Virginia. To the south, US-1 travels to Richmond running parallel to I-95. The subject site is approximately 2.0 miles from I-95 itself via exit 126. I-95 is a major transportation artery on the east coast. It also takes commuters north to Quantico, northern Virginia, and the Washington, DC region; to the south, I-95 takes local commuters to Richmond.
3. Availability of Public Transit This portion of Spotsylvania County is served by the Fredericksburg Regional Transit (FRED) bus service. The S5 line serves Spotsylvania Parkway and stops at Cosner’s Corner shopping center, just less than one mile from the subject. Riders can transfer to lines that go into the City of Fredericksburg, including the Amtrak/VRE station located there, as well as further north to destinations in Stafford County.
Virginia Railway Express (VRE) provides commuter rail service from the Northern Virginia suburbs to Alexandria, Crystal City and downtown Washington, DC, along the I-66 and I-95 corridors. The Fredericksburg line provides northbound service from the Spotsylvania station from 4:57 am to 7:36 am on weekdays. Southbound service begins in Washington, DC at 12:55 pm and continues until 6:40 pm on weekdays. The Spotsylvania station is located 5.6 miles from the subject off Route 17. There is another VRE station located 7.4 miles to the north in the city of Fredericksburg. VRE shares the Fredericksburg station with Amtrak which provides daily, longer distance service around the clock.
Richmond International Airport is the closest major airport to the subject site. It is located 59 miles south of the subject and is serviced by seven carriers with 166 daily departures.
4. Pedestrian Access As this is a suburban location and much of the surrounding property has yet to be developed. While sidewalks are not ubiquitous, they have been installed along US-1 in front of the site and throughout Phase I of Orchard Ridge.
5. Accessibility Improvements under Construction and Planned The Virginia Department of Transportation is planning to construct a Park-and-Ride facility with 800 free parking spaces. The planned facility is approximately one-half mile north of the subject off US-1. The facility will include park-and-ride, shuttle service to the VRE Commuter Rail station, local bus service, passenger pick-up/drop-off and a slug-lane for adding passengers to qualify for free use of the I-95 Express toll lanes.
The Statewide Transportation Improvement Program (STIP) is Virginia’s federally required transportation improvement program that identifies those transit/highway construction and maintenance projects that will utilize federal funding, or for which federal approval will be
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required. The Six-Year Improvement Program Database currently lists several road improvements which are underway in Spotsylvania County, but none would directly affect the subject site.
D. Residential Support Network
1. Key Facilities and Services near the Subject Sites The appeal of any given community is often based in part to its proximity to those facilities and services required on a daily basis. Key facilities and services are listed in Table 4. The location of those facilities is plotted on Map 3.
Table 4 Key Facilities and Services
Driving Dist Establishment Type Address (miles) Cosner's Corner (Target, Kohl's, Petsmart, Bank General/Comparision 9785 Jefferson Davis Highway 0.9 mi of America, restaurants, etc.) Retail/Pharmacy CVS Pharmacy 10000 Jefferson Davis Hwy 0.9 mi Spotsylvania Regional Medical Center Medical 4600 Spotsylvania Parkway 1.6 mi Primary and Urgent Care Medical 10009 Southpoint Parkway 2.0 mi Southpoint Shoppes (Lowe’s Home General/Comparision Improvement, Walmart, SunTrust, restaurants, 10001 Southpoint Parkway 2.0 mi Retail/Pharmacy etc.) Massaponax High School Education 8201 Jefferson Davis Hwy 2.1 mi Parkside Elementary School Education 5620 Smith Station Rd 2.4 mi Germana Community College Higher Education 10000 Germanna Point Drive 2.5 mi Food Lion Grocery 10601 Spotsylvania Ave 2.9 mi Patriot Park Recreation 5710 Smith Station Road 2.9 mi CVS Pharmacy 10701 Courthouse Road 3.1 mi Lee Hill Park Recreation 9910 Lee Hill Park Road 3.7 mi Spotsylvania County Fire/Rescue Station 4 Fire 4804 Bancroft Road 3.8 mi Spotsylvania VRE Station Transportation 9442 Crossroads Pkwy 5.6 mi Spotsylvania Middle School Education 8801 Courthouse Road 6.3 mi Salem Church Public Library Library 2607 Salem Church Road 6.4 mi US Post Office Post Office 420 Spotsylvania Mall 6.7 mi Spotsylvania Towne Centre/Spotsylvania Mall Comparision Retail 137 Spotsylvania Mall 7.0 mi (Macy’s, Belk, Costco, JCPenney, Sears, etc.) University of Mary Washington Higher Education 1301 College Ave 7.2 mi Amtrak/VRE Station Transportation 200 Lafayette Blvd 7.4 mi Mary Washington Hospital Medical 1001 Sam Perry Blvd 7.5 mi Central Park (Best Buy, Sports Authority, General/Comparision Kohl’s, Target, Lowe’s Home Improvement, Wal- 1541 Carl D Silver Pkwy 7.5 mi Retail Mart, Old Navy, Regal Cinema, etc.) Spotsylvania Sherrif Safety 9119 Dean Ridings Ln 7.5 mi
Source: Field and Internet Research, Real Property Research Group, Inc.
Page 14 Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II | Site and Neighborhood Analysis
Map 3 Neighborhood Features
1. Essential Services
Health Care Primary & Urgent Care has a facility located in the Southpoint Shopping Center. The facility is open seven days a week, 365 days a year and provides both primary care and urgent care services. Walk- ins are accepted during office hours and staff can interpret Spanish, Arabic, Urdu, Hindi, Farsi, and American Sign Language. Services include lab testing; X-rays; EKG testing; women’s health and wellness; camp, school, and yearly physicals; and wound care.
Spotsylvania Regional Medical Center (SRMC) is located less than two miles from the subject. SRMC is 126-bed general acute care hospital that provides a range of in- and outpatient services, including 24-hour emergency care, obstetrics, diagnostic imaging, intensive care, cardiac catheterization and psychiatric care. SRMC recently won state approval to build a cancer treatment center, adding another 80,000-square-foot medical office building to its 75-acre campus.
Mary Washington Hospital is located 7.5 miles to the north. MWH is equipped with 437 licensed beds and offers specialty services such as trauma care, open heart surgery, neurosurgery, and advanced cancer care. MWH has evolved into a not-for-profit regional system of two hospitals and
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28 healthcare facilities, including the Mary Washington Health Care Medical Pavilion at Cosner’s Corner.
Education The State of Virginia administers Standards of Learning (SOL) Assessment Tests to monitor student performance and the quality of classroom instruction in public school systems throughout the state. The most comprehensive testing occurs in the 3rd and 8th grades as well as high school. Elementary and middle school students are tested in core areas including English, mathematics, science, and writing. High school tests are conducted upon students’ completion of relevant coursework, and focus on more specific subject areas such as algebra II, biology, and geometry, in addition to English and writing. The results of SOL tests can be used to compare the performance of students in various schools and school districts, and by extension the quality of the schools themselves. In order to construct this comparison, we compiled and analyzed data on the percentage of students testing at the state-defined ‘proficient’ level or ‘advanced’ level in core subject areas. We compiled data for the 2016 to 2017 school year.
Based upon the Spotsylvania County Public Schools’ on-line attendance zone maps, school-age residents of the subject site attending public schools would be assigned to Parkside Elementary School, Spotsylvania Middle School, and Massaponax High School.
Composite test results placed Parkside Elementary third out of 17 elementary schools, scoring higher than the county’s composite average (Table 5). Residents would attend Spotsylvania Middle School which ranks fourth of seven middle schools in the county, scoring comparable to the countywide composite average. High school students would attend Massaponax High School which is ranked second out of five schools in the county and achieved a composite score of 86.0, higher than the countywide composite average of 84.2.
Table 5 Spotsylvania County Public Schools, 2016-2017
Elementary Schools Middle Schools VA SOL - 2017 Grade 3 VA SOL - 2017 Grade 8 Rank School English Math Composite Rank School English Math Composite 1 Chancellor Elementary 91.0% 92.0% 91.5% 1 Ni River Middle 85.0% 78.0% 81.5% 2 Livingston Elementary 77.0% 92.0% 84.5% 2 Freedom Middle 78.0% 84.0% 81.0% 3 Parkside Elementary 81.0% 84.0% 82.5% 3 Battlefield Middle 69.0% 74.0% 71.5% 4 Riverview Elementary 82.0% 82.0% 82.0% 4 Spotsylvania Middle 78.0% 64.0% 71.0% 5 Courthouse Road Elementary 81.0% 81.0% 81.0% 5 Chancellor Middle 74.0% 66.0% 70.0% 6 Robert E. Lee Elementary 83.0% 79.0% 81.0% 6 Thornburg Middle 69.0% 64.0% 66.5% 7 Battlefield Elementary 79.0% 81.0% 80.0% 7 Post Oak Middle 70.0% 50.0% 60.0% 8 Smith Station Elementary 76.0% 84.0% 80.0% County Average 74.7% 68.6% 71.6% 9 Wilderness Elementary 76.0% 83.0% 79.5% State Average 53.4% 43.2% 48.3% 10 Berkeley Elementary 70.0% 85.0% 77.5% 11 Courtland Elementary 69.0% 76.0% 72.5% High Schools 12 Harrison Road Elementary 70.0% 73.0% 71.5% VA SOL - 2017 13 Salem Elementary 71.0% 71.0% 71.0% Rank School English Math Composite 14 Lee Hill Elementary 71.0% 70.0% 70.5% 1 Riverbend High 95.0% 89.0% 92.0% 15 Cedar Forest Elementary 70.0% 69.0% 69.5% 2 Massaponax High 85.0% 87.0% 86.0% 16 Brock Road Elementary 64.0% 71.0% 67.5% 3 Courtland High 92.0% 79.0% 85.5% 17 Spotswood Elementary 59.0% 66.0% 62.5% 4 Spotsylvania High 86.0% 80.0% 83.0% County Average 74.7% 78.8% 76.7% 5 Chancellor High 84.0% 65.0% 74.5% State Average 59.0% 61.7% 60.4% County Average 88.4% 80.0% 84.2% Source: Virginia Department of Education State Average 59.6% 59.8% 59.7%
For those residents seeking higher education, the campus of University of Mary Washington (UMW) is situated 7.2 miles to the north. UMW is a public liberal arts university with an enrollment
Page 16 Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II | Site and Neighborhood Analysis
of approximately 4,000 undergraduate students. MWU is commonly ranked in major selective guide publications ranking colleges and universities as a top value institution. Degree programs offered include a Bachelor of Arts, Bachelor of Science, Bachelor of Liberal Studies, Master of Science in Elementary Education, Master of Business Administration, Master of Education, and Master of Science in Management Information Systems.
Germanna Community College is a two-year public institution of higher education with several programs in nursing and technical programs in addition to general education classes suitable for transfer to a 4-year intuition. The College serves the residents of City of Fredericksburg and the counties of Caroline, Culpeper, King George, Madison, Orange, Spotsylvania and Stafford. The College serves more than 10,000 students. The Fredericksburg campus is located 2.5 miles from the subject site.
2. Commercial Goods and Services
Convenience Goods The term “convenience goods” refers to inexpensive, nondurable items that households purchase on a frequent basis and for which they generally do not comparison shop. Examples of convenience goods are groceries, fast food, health and beauty aids, household cleaning products, newspapers, and gasoline.
As noted, Cosner’s Corner is located 0.9 miles north of the subject site and contains a Target supercenter with grocery and pharmacy services. In addition a Publix grocery store is under construction in this shopping center. A CVS pharmacy is located 0.9 miles from the subject site. Also noted earlier, Southpoint Shoppes is located north of Cosner’s Corner and is home to a Walmart Supercenter which includes groceries and a pharmacy.
Shoppers Goods The term “shoppers goods” refers to larger ticket merchandise that households purchase on an infrequent basis and for which they usually comparison shop. The category is sometimes called “comparison goods.” Examples of shoppers goods are apparel and accessories, furniture and home furnishings, appliances, jewelry, and sporting goods.
As noted earlier, both Cosner’s Corner and Southpoint also contain dining and comparison shopping options. In addition to the retail options located at Southpoint and Cosner’s Corner, Fredericksburg offers a wide variety of comparison shopping goods. Perhaps the most notable shopping attraction in the region is Central Park, a 2.5 million square foot retail power center. Central Park is the largest outdoor shopping mall on the East Coast, with more than 250 retailers and restaurants, providing a wide array of shopping attractions. Anchor tenants include Best Buy, Sports Authority, Kohl’s, Target, Lowe’s Home Improvement, Wal-Mart, and Old Navy. The outdoor shopping mall also contains a Regal Cinemas movie theatre, with 14 stadium seating screens showing all the latest box office hits. Another major shopping attraction in the area is the Spotsylvania Towne Centre. The complex is highlighted by the Spotsylvania Mall which is anchored by Macy’s, Belk, Costco, JCPenney, and Sears. The complex also includes The Village at Towne Centre, an open-air retail district providing a further variety of retailers and dining establishments.
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3. Other Facilities and Features A wide variety of recreational opportunities are available in the Fredericksburg area.
Central Park Fun Land is an indoor/outdoor family fun center situated within the Central Park outdoor shopping plaza, 7.5 miles north of the subject site. The facility offers a variety of attractions including rides, laser tag, go-karts, miniature golf, batting cages, mini bowling, rock climbing and bumper cars. Fun Land also has an arcade featuring more than 100 video games and ticket and prize games. Fun Land is considered to be one of the premier indoor/outdoor family friendly entertainment attractions in the Greater Washington, DC metropolitan area.
The greater Fredericksburg region has several battlegrounds from the civil war that have been preserved and are designated national parks. Informational tours are provided year round.
Spotsylvania, Stafford, and Westmoreland counties partner with Fredericksburg to fund the Central Rappahannock Regional Library. The closest branch to the subject is the Salem Church Library, located at 2607 Salem Church Road, 6.4 miles north of the subject site.
Lee Hill Park is the county park closest to the subject site and it includes lighted baseball fields and onsite restrooms. Patriot Park is located nearby as well. This county park features a 200-person amphitheater, baseball field, and three miles of walking trails.
Page 18 Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II | Economic Context
4. ECONOMIC CONTEXT A. Introduction This section of the report focuses primarily on economic trends and conditions in Spotsylvania County, the jurisdiction in which the Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II property is located. For purposes of comparison, certain economic trends in the State of Virginia and the nation are also discussed.
B. Labor Force, Resident Employment, and Unemployment The unemployment rate among Spotsylvania County residents tracked consistently lower than or comparable to Virginia’s statewide unemployment rate over the last decade. Increases and decreases in county unemployment mirrored national and statewide trends. Unemployment in the county was a low 2.5 percent in 2006. Unemployment rates ebbed and flowed over the next several years, but did not rise above 3.0 percent until 2008 when it hit 3.4 percent. Rates continued to climb, hitting a peak of 7.0 percent in 2010, but still 2.6 percentage points lower than the national rate. Since then, the rate has fallen and during 2016, the rate averaged 4.1 percent. In the first 10 months of 2017, the average fell to 3.8 percent. Since 6 the county rate has been generally comparable to the statewide rate for Virginia which has remained well under the national rate.
Table 6 Labor Force and Unemployment Rates
Annual Unemployment Rates - Not Seasonally Adjusted Annual 2017 Unemployment 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Jan-Oct Labor Force 64,312 64,669 66,228 64,917 63,357 64,277 64,141 64,144 64,182 63,726 64,475 65,875 Employment 62,735 63,030 63,968 61,268 58,922 59,971 60,232 60,417 60,704 60,767 61,857 63,386 Unemployment 1,577 1,639 2,260 3,649 4,435 4,306 3,909 3,727 3,478 2,959 2,618 2,489 Unemployment Rate Spotsylvania County 2.5% 2.5% 3.4% 5.6% 7.0% 6.7% 6.1% 5.8% 5.4% 4.6% 4.1% 3.8% Virginia 3.1% 3.0% 3.9% 6.7% 7.1% 6.6% 6.1% 5.7% 5.2% 4.5% 4.0% 3.8% United States 4.6% 4.6% 5.8% 9.3% 9.6% 8.8% 8.3% 7.4% 6.2% 5.3% 4.9% 4.6% Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics 11.0% 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% e t
a 6.0% R
t n e 5.0% Spotsylvania County m y o l 4.0% p Virginia m e
n 3.0% United States U 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Jan-Oct
C. Commutation Patterns According to 2012-2016 American Community Survey (ACS) data, 19 percent of workers residing in the primary market area spent less than 15 minutes commuting to work (Table 7). Thirty-five percent of workers spent 15 to 30 minutes commuting, while 12 percent of workers commuted 30 to 45 minutes to work. About 29 percent of workers residing in the PMA spent 45 or more minutes commuting to their respective place of employment. Approximately 94 percent of workers residing
Page 19 Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II | Economic Context
in the primary market area worked in the state of Virginia and 38 percent worked in Spotsylvania County.
Table 7 Commutation Data
Travel Time to Work Place of Work Workers 16 years+ # % Workers 16 years and over # % Did not work at home: 54,471 95.6% Worked in state of residence: 53,333 93.6% Less than 5 minutes 1,031 1.8% Worked in county of residence 21,362 37.5% 5 to 9 minutes 3,676 6.5% Workedoutsidecountyofresidence 31,971 56.1% 10 to 14 minutes 6,053 10.6% Worked outside state of residence 3,624 6.4% 15 to 19 minutes 9,438 16.6% Total 56,957 100% 20 to 24 minutes 7,494 13.2% Source: American Community Survey 2012-2016 25 to 29 minutes 3,127 5.5% 2012-2016 Commuting Patterns Outside 30 to 34 minutes 3,952 6.9% Jackson Village Market Area County 35 to 39 minutes 1,253 2.2% 56.1% 40 to 44 minutes 1,775 3.1% 45 to 59 minutes 4,684 8.2% 60 to 89 minutes 7,163 12.6% 90 or more minutes 4,825 8.5% Outside Worked at home 2,486 4.4% In County 37.5% State Total 56,957 6.4% Source: American Community Survey 2012-2016
D. County At-Place Employment
1. Trends in Total At-Place Employment Spotsylvania County’s job base has grown significantly since 2006 (Figure 5). Employment has grown every year since 2006, except for 2009 when the county lost almost 1,200 jobs at the peak of the recession. All of those jobs were recovered the following year and employment has continued to grow. As of second quarter 2017, there were 35,438 jobs in the county, a new peak. Since 2006, the county has increased its at-place employment by 19 percent, adding almost 5,700 jobs. Over most of the last decade, Spotsylvania’s job growth rate exceeded national job growth.
Page 20 Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II | Economic Context
Figure 5 At-Place Employment
Total At Place Employment 40,000
35,000 8 0 0 3 0 4 4 6 0 , , 3 0 6 , 30,000 5 8 5 4 9 4 3 , 4 6 9 1 3 4 5 9 3 , 9 2 7 4 1 0 4 6 t , 1 0 3 0 9 5 8 n 7 , , , 1 , , 3 e 25,000 7 0 0 9 , 3 9 9 m 3 3 2 8 2 y 2 o 2 l p 20,000 m E
e c a l
P 15,000
t A 10,000
5,000
0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q2
Change in At Place Employment
2,000 10.0%
1,374 8.0% 1,500 1,323
e 1,026 6.0% c
a 922 l 922 P
t 1,000 660 4.0% A
% n i
A e g 438 2.0% n n n a 500 u h a C l
l 79 105 G
a 0.0% r
u 22 o n w n t h A 0 -2.0%
-500 Annual Change in Spotsylvania County At Place Employment -4.0%
United States Annual Employment Growth Rate -6.0% -1,000 Spotsylvania County Annual Employment Growth Rate -8.0%
-1,500 -1,198 -10.0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q2
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages
2. At-Place Employment by Industry Sector As shown on Figure 6, total employment by industry sector indicates that Spotsylvania County is a regional center for the Trade-Transportation-Utilities sector. Trade-Transportation-Utilities employment in the United States accounts for 19 percent of all jobs, while well over one-quarter of all workers (26 percent) in Spotsylvania County are employed in this field. Government also plays a significant role in the local economy, accounting for 18 percent of total employment as of second quarter 2017. The Leisure-Hospitality sector also plays an important role in the county’s economy accounting for approximately 14 percent of total employment. Construction and Other are the only other sectors which are overrepresented in relation to the national economy.
Figure 7 shows the change in jobs by industry sector since 2011. Four sectors have seen robust growth of 23 to 42 percent each, including Leisure-Hospitality, Education Health, Professional- Business, and Manufacturing. The Construction, Financial Activities, Other, and Government sectors saw significant growth at 11 to 15 percent. Only the Natural Resources-Mining sector lost jobs and it is a relatively small part of the market.
Page 21 Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II | Economic Context
Figure 6 Total Employment 2Q 2017
Total Employment by Sector 2017 Q2 United States 3.1% Other 4.3% Spotsylvania County 10.8% Leisure-Hospitality 14.0%
15.5% Education Health 13.9%
14.0% Professional-Business 10.7%
5.6% Financial Activities 3.0%
2.0% Information 0.7%
19.0% Trade-Trans-Utilities 26.0%
8.7% Manufacturing 3.2%
4.6% Construction 6.1%
1.2% Nat Resources-Mining 0.2%
15.3% Government 17.7%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0%
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages
Figure 7 Total Employment and Employment Change by Sector 2011 to 2Q 2017
Employment Change by Sector, 2011-2017 Q2
-1.3% Other 11.3%
14.5% Leisure-Hospitality 33.5%
15.3% Education Health 33.7%
14.9% Professional-Business 41.9%
7.6% United States Financial Activities 12.7% Spotsylvania County 4.6% Information 0.8%
8.1% Trade-Trans-Utilities 2.2%
5.0% Manufacturing 22.8%
18.6% Construction 15.3%
-10.0% Nat Resources-Mining -13.7%
2.3% Government 12.1%
-20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0%
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages
Page 22 Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II | Economic Context
3. Major Employers Table 8 outlines Spotsylvania County’s largest employers in terms of number of employees as reported by the Virginia Economic Commission in 2017. Two of the largest employers are government institutions including the county government and the local public school system. The largest private employers are Rappahannock Electric Co-Op and the local hospital, Spotsylvania Regional Medical Center. Other large private employers include Walmart and CVS.
Table 8 Major Employers, 2017
Rank Name Sector Employment 1 Spotsylvania County School Board Education 500 to 999 2 Rappahannock Electric Co-Op Utilities 500 to 999 3 Spotsylvania Regional Med Center Healthcare 500 to 999 4 Wal Mart General Merchandise Stores 250 to 499 5 Spotsylvania County Government 250 to 499 6 CVS Pharmacy Warehousing and Storage 250 to 499 7 PMC Non-Profit 250 to 499 8 Wilderness Resorts Recreation 100 to 249 9 Fawn Lake Country Club Recreation 100 to 249 10 Giant Food Groceries 100 to 249 Source: Virginia Employment Commission
4. Wage Trends The average annual wage in 2016 for Spotsylvania County was $37,794 (Table 9). In 2016, the county’s average annual wage was 69 percent of the average annual wage throughout Virginia and 70 percent of the average wage nationally.
Figure 8 compares the average annual wage by economic sector for Spotsylvania County to the average annual wage by economic sector for the United States as of 2016. For all economic sectors, average wages in Spotsylvania County fell short of the average wages in the United States. The wage gaps are greatest for the Financial Activities and Information sectors. The highest-wage sectors in Spotsylvania County as of 2016 were Professional-Business ($62,500) and Information ($61,946).
Page 23 Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II| Economic Context
Table 9 Average Annual Wage
Figure 8 Annualized Wage Data by Sector
Average Annual Pay by Sector 2016
Other $28,364 $35,923 Spotsylvania County Leisure-Hospitality $16,076 $22,431 United States Education-Health $42,841 $48,058
Professional-Business $62,500 $69,964
Financial Activities $43,316 $88,822
Information $61,946 $98,475
Trade-Trans-Utilities $34,869 $44,758
Manufacturing $52,156 $64,860
Construction $43,500 $58,643
Natural Resources-Mining $44,908 $56,110
Government $40,986 $61,331
$0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 $120,000
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages
Page 24 Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II | Housing Market Area
5. HOUSING MARKET AREA
A. Introduction The primary market area for the proposed Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II general occupancy rental community is defined as the geographic area from which future residents of the community would primarily be drawn and in which competitive rental housing alternatives are located. In defining the Jackson Village market area, RPRG sought to accommodate the joint interests of conservatively estimating housing demand and reflecting the realities of the local rental housing marketplace.
B. Delineation of Market Area The market area includes the northeast portion of Spotsylvania County as well as the City of Fredericksburg. This market area is depicted in Map 4 and the Census tracts that comprise the market area are listed on the edge of the map. The boundaries are as follows:
North: City of Fredericksburg’s northernmost boundary, Rappahannock River (7.0 miles) Northeast: Spotsylvania/Stafford County border (5.1 miles) Southeast: Spotsylvania/Caroline County border (4.8 miles) South: Po River, Interstate 95, Ni River, Hickory Ridge Road, Massaponax Church Road, Courthouse Road, Lake Anna Parkway (5.4 miles) West: Broc Road, Catharpin Road (8.4 miles) Northwest: Old Plank Road, Route 3, Greengate Road, River Road (6.0 miles)
The market area has been designated to incorporate the subject’s neighborhood and inclusive of neighborhoods with multifamily properties (both market rate and affordable) that would directly compete with the proposed subject. RPRG’s primary market area was drawn giving consideration to key factors such as development patterns/density, jurisdictional boundaries, the locations of competitive rental communities, and transportation infrastructure. Given its close proximity, the primary market area incorporates the compact City of Fredericksburg in its entirety. In addition to the City of Fredericksburg, the market area includes the more densely developed portion of Spotsylvania County, which includes the area closest to the City of Fredericksburg, the Spotsylvania Courthouse area, and most of the Interstate 95 corridor inside the county boundaries. RPRG sought to limit the defined primary market area to those districts of Spotsylvania County with a relatively dense suburban development pattern, though the outlines of specific census tracts necessitated the inclusion of some rural districts to the west and southeast of the suburban districts. The Jackson Village market area has witnessed substantial residential and commercial development activity since the year 2000.
Where appropriate for this analysis, the Jackson Village market area is compared to and contrasted with the Greater Fredericksburg market area, which is considered a secondary market for the purposes of this analysis. For this report, Greater Fredericksburg includes the City of Fredericksburg, Spotsylvania County, and Stafford County.
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Map 4 Jackson Village Market Area
Page 26 Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II | Demographic Analysis
6. DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
A. Introduction and Methodology RPRG analyzed recent trends in population and households in the Jackson Village primary market area and the Greater Fredericksburg secondary market area using several sources. For small area estimates, projections of population and households prepared by the Environmental Systems Research Institute (Esri), a national data vendor, were examined. We also examined the Round 9.0 forecasts from the area’s metropolitan planning organization, the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (MWCOG). The forecasts were released in 2017. The MWCOG data cover the primary market area, but not the full secondary market, since portions of Spotsylvania County are excluded. We compared and evaluated data from both sources in the context of decennial U.S. Census data (from 2000 and 2010).
Esri projects annual household growth in this market at 1.4 percent while MWCOG projects a more aggressive 1.8 percent annual growth. Upon examining population and household estimates and projections from both Esri and MWCOG, we elected to use MWCOG estimates and projections as a base. When available, RPRG typically relies on data from the local Metropolitan Planning Organization, as local government members have intimate knowledge of local development patterns. Overall, MWCOG’s forecasts appear realistic in light of past performances and unfolding trends. As MWCOG data is not available for the secondary Greater Fredericksburg market area, we assume growth rates for population and households consistent with the growth rate observed between the 2000 Census and the 2010 Census.
B. Trends in Population and Households
1. Recent Past Trends According to US Census data, the Jackson Village market area experienced rapid population growth between 2000 and 2010, increasing by 34.7 percent, or 27,538 persons (Table 10). The annual population growth rate was 3.0 percent. The growth rate was comparable to the growth experienced throughout the Greater Fredericksburg area at 36.4 percent, or 3.2 percent annually.
Household trends are considered a better indicator of demand for housing than simple population trends. During the 2000s, the number of households in the Jackson Village market area increased by 30.7 percent (8,893 households), for a compounded annual rate of 2.7 percent (889 households). The Greater Fredericksburg household growth rate was even greater over this period, at an annual compounded rate of 3.0 percent.
2. Estimated and Projected Trends Based on Esri projections, RPRG estimates that the market area’s population increased by 2,020 people and 854 households annually between 2010 and 2018. RPRG further projects that the market area’s population will increase by 2,017 people annually between 2018 and 2023, bringing the total population to 133,238 persons in 2023. This represents an annual increase of 1.6 percent. The number of households will increase at a slightly faster rate, gaining 1.8 percent or 851 new households per annum and resulting in a total of 48,902 households in 2022. Growth rates in the market area are projected to be slightly more moderate than that predicted for the Greater Fredericksburg Area.
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Table 10 Population and Household Projections
Greater Fredericksburg Jackson Village Market Area Total Change Annual Change Total Change Annual Change Population Count # % # % Count # % # % 2000 202,123 79,458 2010 275,644 73,521 36.4% 7,352 3.2% 106,996 27,538 34.7% 2,754 3.0% 2018 334,461 58,817 21.3% 7,352 2.4% 123,155 16,159 15.1% 2,020 1.8% 2023 371,221 36,761 11.0% 7,352 2.1% 133,238 10,083 8.2% 2,017 1.6% Total Change Annual Change Total Change Annual Change Households Count # % # % Count # % # % 2000 69,598 28,925 2010 93,216 23,618 33.9% 2,362 3.0% 37,818 8,893 30.7% 889 2.7% 2018 112,110 18,894 20.3% 2,362 2.3% 44,647 6,829 18.1% 854 2.1% 2023 123,919 11,809 10.5% 2,362 2.0% 48,902 4,255 9.5% 851 1.8% Source: 2000 Census; 2010 Census; MWCOG; and Real Property Research Group, Inc.
Annual Percentage HH Change, 2000 to 2023 Greater Fredericksburg Jackson Village Market Area 3.5% 3.0% 3.0% 2.7% 2.3% 2.5% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 1.8% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2000-2010 2010-2018 2018-2023
3. Building Permit Trends Building permit data for Greater Fredericksburg shows intermittent periods of stronger growth and more modest growth in the market area over the past decade. Since 2000, the jurisdictions have permitted a combined average of 2,131 new residential units each year (Table 11). This number masks a wide swing in the amount of permits issued each year that ranged from a high of 3,832 in 2002 to a low of 638 in 2008. Much of this growth occurred during the first half of the decade. Since 2008, the number of permits climbed to 1,457 permits in 2013 before falling to 1,170 in 2014. In 2015 permits were up slightly to 1,228, followed by 1,980 units permitted in 2016, a level not seen since 2006.
The majority of the new units permitted historically has been single family homes. Since 2000, approximately ten percent of all residential permits issued have been for multifamily units.
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Table 11 Building Permits by Structure Type
Greater Fredericksburg 2000- Annual 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2016 Average Single Family 2,602 3,443 3,446 3,027 2,855 3,373 2,270 1,413 590 801 890 829 1,025 1,457 1,170 1,228 1,852 32,271 1,898 Two Family 6 0 144 0 0 2 0 26 48 4 8 0 14 0 0 0 0 252 15 3 - 4 Family 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 34 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 38 2 5+ Family 587 324 242 344 594 339 148 8 0 157 232 302 257 0 0 0 128 3,662 215 Total 3,195 3,767 3,832 3,371 3,453 3,714 2,418 1,481 638 962 1,130 1,131 1,296 1,457 1,170 1,228 1,980 36,223 2,131 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, C-40 Building Permit Reports.
Total Housing Units Permitted 2000 - 2016 4,500 4,000 3,767 3,832 3,714 3,371 3,453 3,500 3,195
d 3,000 e t t
i 2,418
m 2,500 r
e 1,980 P
s 2,000 t i
n 1,481 1,457 U 1,500 1,296 1,170 1,228 962 1,130 1,131 1,000 638 500 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
C. Demographic Characteristics
1. Age Distribution and Household Type Based on Esri estimates, the Greater Fredericksburg area has a higher proportion of adults (age 35- 61), while the Jackson Village market area has a higher proportion of young adults (age 20-34) (Table 12). Approximately 27 percent of both the market area and the Greater Fredericksburg area population consists of children/youth under the age of 20. Approximately 23 percent of the market area are young adults, compared with 21 percent of Greater Fredericksburg. Thirty-four percent of the market area population is between the ages of 35 and 61, less than the Greater Fredericksburg area proportion of 36 percent. Seniors (age 62 and older) represent approximately 15 percent of the population in both the market area and in the Greater Fredericksburg area.
The market area has more individuals living alone and fewer households with children compared to the region. Households with children comprise 40 percent of the market area households, compared to 43 percent in the Greater Fredericksburg area (Table 13). The market area has more individuals living alone at 23 percent of households compared to Greater Fredericksburg at 19 percent of households. The market area also has a greater proportion of non-family households (roommates) at 6.8 percent compared to 5.3 percent in Greater Fredericksburg.
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Table 12 2018 Age Distribution
Greater Jackson Village 2018 Age Distribution 2018 Age Jackson Village Market Area Fredericksburg Market Area Distribution Greater Fredericksburg # % # % 15.3% Children/Youth 91,228 27.3% 34,017 27.6% Seniors Under 5 years 20,824 6.2% 8,134 6.6% 15.6% 5-9 years 22,607 6.8% 8,363 6.8% 10-14 years 24,276 7.3% 8,549 6.9% 15-19 years 23,521 7.0% 8,972 7.3% 34.1% Adults Young Adults 70,497 21.1% 28,280 23.0% e p
y 36.1%
20-24 years 22,413 6.7% 9,476 7.7% T 25-34 years 48,084 14.4% 18,804 15.3% Adults 120,636 36.1% 42,038 34.1% 23.0% 35-44 years 44,665 13.4% 16,528 13.4% Young Adults 45-54 years 47,148 14.1% 15,998 13.0% 21.1% 55-61 years 28,823 8.6% 9,511 7.7% Seniors 52,099 15.6% 18,820 15.3% 62-64 years 12,353 3.7% 4,076 3.3% 27.6% Child/Youth 65-74 years 25,409 7.6% 8,931 7.3% 27.3% 75-84 years 10,569 3.2% 4,085 3.3% 85 and older 3,769 1.1% 1,727 1.4% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% TOTAL 334,461 100% 123,155 100% % Pop Median Age 35 34 Source: Esri; RPRG, Inc.
Table 13 2010 Households by Household Type
Greater Jackson Village 2010 Households by Household Type Households by Household Fredericksburg Market Area Type # % # % HH w/ 39.6% Children Married w/Children 28,793 30.9% 10,169 26.9% 42.6% Other w/ Children 10,912 11.7% 4,811 12.7% Households w/ Children 39,705 42.6% 14,980 39.6% HH w/o 37.3% Married w/o Children 26,466 28.4% 9,345 24.7% Children 38.8% Other Family w/o Children 4,820 5.2% 2,181 5.8% Non-Family w/o Children 4,912 5.3% 2,581 6.8% Jackson Village e
p 23.1% Market Area Households w/o Children 36,198 38.8% 14,107 37.3% y T Singles Greater d l
Singles Living Alone 17,313 18.6% 8,731 23.1% o 18.6% Fredericksburg h e s
Singles 17,313 18.6% 8,731 23.1% u o Total 93,216 100% 37,818 100% H 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% % Households Source: 2010 Census; RPRG, Inc.
2. Renter Household Characteristics The Jackson Village market area has a higher proportion of renter households than the region as a whole (Table 14). As of 2010, approximately one-third of market area households resided in renter- occupied units (33.5 percent). Just over one third of the net new households added to the market over that decade were renters. The Greater Fredericksburg renter rate is lower, with 25.7 percent of households residing in renter occupied units as of 2010.
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Since 2010, Esri estimates 55.0 percent of net new households have been renters, raising the rentership rate to 36.8 percent as of 2018. Esri projects the overall proportion of renters will continue to increase over the next five years with the 2023 proportion of renter households growing to 37.3 percent.
Table 14 Renter Tenure Trends
Greater Change 2000- Change 2010- Change 2018- Fredericksburg 2000 2010 2010 2018 2018 2023 2023 Housing Units # % # % # % # % # % # % # % Owner Occupied 52,940 76.1% 69,220 74.3% 16,280 68.9% 80,538 71.8% 11,318 59.9% 88,697 71.6% 8,159 69.1% Renter Occupied 16,658 23.9% 23,996 25.7% 7,338 31.1% 31,573 28.2% 7,577 40.1% 35,222 28.4% 3,650 30.9% Total Occupied 69,598 100% 93,216 100% 23,618 100% 112,110 100% 18,894 100% 123,919 100% 11,809 100% Total Vacant 4,025 6,414 7,412 8,194 TOTAL UNITS 73,623 99,630 119,522 132,113
Jackson Village Change 2000- Change 2010- Change 2018- Market Area 2000 2010 2010 2018 2018 2023 2023 Housing Units # % # % # % # % # % # % # % Owner Occupied 19,441 67.2% 25,156 66.5% 5,715 64.3% 28,231 63.2% 3,075 45.0% 30,672 62.7% 2,441 57.4% Renter Occupied 9,484 32.8% 12,662 33.5% 3,178 35.7% 16,416 36.8% 3,754 55.0% 18,230 37.3% 1,814 42.6% Total Occupied 28,925 100% 37,818 100% 8,893 100% 44,647 100% 6,829 100% 48,902 100% 4,255 100% Total Vacant 1,772 2,569 3,045 3,340 TOTAL UNITS 30,697 40,387 47,691 52,242 Source: U.S. Census of Population and Housing, 2000, 2010; Esri, RPRG, Inc.
The Jackson Village market area has proportionally more young renters as well as older renters than found in the Greater Fredericksburg area as a whole (Table 15). Renters less than 25-years old comprise 11 percent of the Jackson Village market area, but only ten percent of renters in the Greater Fredericksburg area. Renters age 25-54 are more common in the Greater Fredericksburg area at 66 percent compared to 62 percent in the Jackson Village market area. Meanwhile, adults age 65 or older represent 16 percent of renters in the Jackson Village market area compared to 14 percent in Greater Fredericksburg.
Table 15 Renter Households by Age of Householder
Renter Greater Jackson Village 2018 Renter Households by Age of Jackson Village Households Fredericksburg Market Area Householder Market Area 8.5% Age of HHldr # % # % 75+ 7.3%
15-24 years 3,043 9.6% 1,827 11.1% r 1 7.7% Greater e 65-74 7.0% d 25-34 years 9,748 30.9% 4,752 28.9% l 2 Fredericksburg o 55-64 10.8%
h 10.5%
35-44 years 6,248 19.8% 3,041 18.5% e 2 s 14.3% u 45-54 15.0%
45-54 years 4,725 15.0% 2,351 14.3% o 2 H 35-44 18.5% 55-64 years 3,311 10.5% 1,774 10.8% f 19.8% o
e 25-34 28.9%
65-74 years 2,199 7.0% 1,270 7.7% g 1 30.9% A 11.1% 75+ years 2,297 7.3% 1,401 8.5% 115-24 9.6% Total 31,573 100% 16,416 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Source: Esri, Real Property Research Group, Inc. % Households
Single person households are the most common household type among renter households in the Jackson Village market area, with an estimated 33 percent share (Table 16). In comparison, 28 percent of Greater Fredericksburg renters are single renters. Another 26 percent of market area renter households are two person households. Three and four person households constitute 29 percent of the renter households.
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Table 16 Renter Households by Persons per Household
Greater Jackson Village 2010 Persons per Household Renter Renter Occupied Units Jackson Village Fredericksburg Market Area 12.0% Market Area Occupied 5+-person 14.0% # % # % Greater 4-person 12.6% Fredericksburg 1-person hhld 6,745 28.1% 4,128 32.6% 14.8% e
z 16.7% 2-person hhld 6,080 25.3% 3,307 26.1% i 3-person S 17.7%
d 3-person hhld 4,258 17.7% 2,109 16.7% l 26.1%
o 2-person
h 25.3%
4-person hhld 3,548 14.8% 1,601 12.6% e s 32.6% u 1-person
5+-person hhld 3,365 14.0% 1,517 12.0% o 28.1% H TOTAL 23,996 100% 12,662 100% 0% 20% 40% Source: 2010 Census % hhlds
3. Income Characteristics According to income distributions provided by Esri (Table 17) households in the Jackson Village market area have a 2018 median household income of $75,960, 15 percent less than the Greater Fredericksburg median household income of $88,887. Over one-fifth (21 percent) of market area households earn less than $35,000. Twenty-eight percent of market area households earn between $35,000 and $75,000. Thirty-five percent earn between $75,000 and $149,999. Sixteen percent of market area households earn $150,000 or more.
Table 17 2018 Household Income
Greater Jackson Village 2018 Household Income Estimated 2018 Fredericksburg Market Area 15.5% Household Income $150+k 21.0%
# % # % $100-$149K 20.6% lessthan $15,000 6,557 5.8% 3,483 7.8% 2 22.6% 14.5% $15,000 $24,999 5,582 5.0% 3,055 6.8% $75-$99K3 14.4%
$25,000 $34,999 6,222 5.6% 2,936 6.6% e 4 16.7%
m $50-$74K
o 15.9%
$35,000 $49,999 10,906 9.7% 5,144 11.5% c 5 n I $35-$49K 11.5% $50,000 $74,999 17,791 15.9% 7,456 16.7% d 6 l 9.7% o
$75,000 $99,999 16,197 14.4% 6,494 14.5% h 7 e $25-$34K 6.6% s 5.6% Jackson Village Market Area $100,000 $149,999 25,288 22.6% 9,177 20.6% u 8 o
H 6.8% Greater Fredericksburg $150,000 Over 23,568 21.0% 6,902 15.5% $15-$24K9 5.0% Total 112,110 100% 44,647 100% 10 7.8% <$15K 5.8%
Median Income $88,887 $75,960 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Source: Esri; Real Property Research Group, Inc. % Households
As is typical in many jurisdictions, renter household incomes in the Jackson Village market area are lower than owner household incomes. Based on the ACS data income projections, the breakdown of tenure, and household estimates, RPRG estimates that the median income of renters in the Jackson Village market as of 2018 is $51,961 (Table 18). The median income of homeowner households in the market area, $93,542, is almost double the renter median income. The median renter household income in the market area is fairly moderate with 35 percent of market’s renter households earning between $35,000 and $75,000.
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Table 18 2018 Household Income by Tenure
Estimated 2018 HH Renter Owner 2018 Household Income by Tenure Income Households Households $150k+ 6,133 Jackson Village 769 # % # % 6,908 Market Area $100-$150K 2,269 less than $15,000 1,974 12.0% 1,509 5.3% 2 $75-$99.9K 4,162 $15,000 $24,999 1,731 10.5% 1,323 4.7% 3 2,332 4,377 $25,000 $34,999 1,638 10.0% 1,298 4.6% $50-$74.9K4 3,079 $35,000 $49,999 2,623 16.0% 2,521 8.9% 5 e $35-$49.9K 2,521 m 2,623 Owner Households
$50,000 $74,999 3,079 18.8% 4,377 15.5% o 6 c n
I 1,298 $75,000 $99,999 2,332 14.2% 4,162 14.7% $25-$34.9K7
d 1,638 l
o 8 Renter Households $100,000 $149,999 2,269 13.8% 6,908 24.5% h 1,323 e $15-$24.9K s 1,731 $150,000 over 769 4.7% 6,133 21.7% u 9 o
H 1,509 Total 16,416 100% 28,231 100% <$15K10 1,974
Median Income $51,961 $93,542 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 # of Households Source: American Community Survey 2012-2016 Estimates, RPRG, Inc.
4. Cost-Burdened Renter Households ‘Rent Burden’ is defined as the ratio of a household’s gross monthly housing costs – rent paid to landlords plus utility costs – to that household’s monthly income. VHDA requires that household rent burdens under the LIHTC program be no higher than 35 percent.
Data regarding the concept of rent burden from the 2012-2016 ACS highlight that lower-income renter households in the Jackson Village market area tend to pay a very high percentage of their monthly income toward housing costs (Table 19). Households with rent burdens higher than 35 percent are considered ‘cost-burdened’. More than two out of five (43 percent) of all renter households residing in the Jackson Village market area have rent burdens of 35 percent or higher. Over one third of renter households (36 percent) pay more than 40 percent of their income for gross rent.
The cost-burdened situation of many low- to moderate-income renter households is a primary indicator of a need for new affordable income- and rent-restricted rental housing in the primary market area. Additionally, 3.3 percent of the rental housing stock within the market area can be considered substandard, i.e., lacking complete plumbing facilities, or overcrowded with more than 1.0 occupants per room.
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Table 19 Rent Burden by Household Income
Rent Cost Burden Substandardness
Total Households # % Total Households Less than 10.0 percent 360 2.5% Owner occupied: 10.0 to 14.9 percent 913 6.3% Complete plumbing facilities: 24,701 15.0 to 19.9 percent 1,721 11.8% 1.00 or less occupants per room 24,435 20.0 to 24.9 percent 1,831 12.6% 1.01 or more occupants per room 266 25.0 to 29.9 percent 1,774 12.2% Lacking complete plumbing facilities: 43 30.0 to 34.9 percent 1,309 9.0% Overcrowded or lacking plumbing 309 35.0 to 39.9 percent 1,015 7.0% 40.0 to 49.9 percent 1,380 9.5% Renter occupied: 50.0 percent or more 3,639 25.0% Complete plumbing facilities: 14,569 Not computed 639 4.4% 1.00 or less occupants per room 14,107 Total 14,581 100.0% 1.01 or more occupants per room 462 Lacking complete plumbing facilities: 12 > 35% income on rent 6,034 43.3% Overcrowded or lacking plumbing 474 > 40% income on rent 5,019 36.0% Source: American Community Survey 2012-2016 Substandard Housing 783 % Total Stock Substandard 2.0% % Rental Stock Substandard 3.3%
Page 34 Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II | Competitive Housing Analysis
7. COMPETITIVE HOUSING ANALYSIS
A. Introduction and Sources of Information This section presents data and analyses pertaining to the supply of housing in the Jackson Village market area. First we highlight characteristics of the existing housing stock in the market using data from the American Community Survey. Next, we present the results of primary research in the form of surveys of competitive rental communities completed during January 2018. The competitive housing analysis concludes with information on the development pipeline in the Jackson Village market area. RPRG communicated with Planner Jacob Pastwik in Spotsylvania County and Development Administrator and Code Enforcement Officer Marne Sherman with the City of Fredericksburg.
B. Market Area Housing Stock
1. Overview of Housing Stock Based on the 2012-2016 ACS survey, rental housing in larger buildings (20+ units) accounted for 19 percent of renter-occupied housing units in the market area, more than the 13 percent share of rental units in the Greater Fredericksburg region (Table 20). Almost half the rental housing stock consists of single family detached homes or single family attached homes with those unit types combining for 42 percent of the rental stock in the market area and 55 percent in the region. In the Jackson Village market area, mid-size multi-family structures with 5 to 9 units accounted for ten percent of rental units and buildings with 10 to 19 units accounted for 21 percent; meanwhile the region is slightly less concentrated in each of these unit types but contains more rental units in mobile homes.
Table 20 Rental Units by Structure Type
2012-2016 Renter Occupied Units By Structure Renter Jackson Village 1, detached 27.5% Occupied Greater Fredericksburg Market Area 36.9% 14.9% # % # % 1, attached 17.6% 2.1% Jackson Village 1, detached 10,157 36.9% 4,010 27.5% 2 1.6%
e Market Area 1, attached 4,839 17.6% 2,169 14.9% p 3-4 4.7% y 3.2% T 2 438 1.6% 313 2.1% Greater e 5-9 9.6% r 9.1%
u Fredericksburg 3-4 877 3.2% 690 4.7% t 20.8% c 10-19 16.0% u
5-9 2,493 9.1% 1,393 9.6% r t 20+ units 18.5% 10-19 4,403 16.0% 3,040 20.8% S 12.7% 1.8% 20+ units 3,495 12.7% 2,700 18.5% Mobile home 3.0% Mobile home 831 3.0% 266 1.8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% TOTAL 27,533 100% 14,581 100% % of Dwelling Units Source: American Community Survey 2012-2016 The median age of a renter-occupied housing unit in the market area is 32 years (built in 1986), four years older than the region’s rental stock (Table 21). Approximately one quarter (25 percent) of the rental stock in both the market area and the region has been built since 2000. Six percent of the market area rental stock has been built since 2010, indicating the amount of recent growth in this market.
Based on the 2012-2016 ACS survey, the median value among owner-occupied housing units in the Jackson Village market area was $258,049, ten percent less than the region’s median value of $285,578 (Table 22). ACS home value estimates are based upon respondent’s assessments of the values of their homes. This data is traditionally a less accurate and reliable indicator of home prices
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than actual sales data, but is typically a strong gauge of relative home values across two or more areas.
Table 21 Rental Units by Year Built
Greater Jackson Village 2012-2016 Dwelling Units by Year Built Renter Occupied Fredericksburg Market Area Renter Occupied Units # % # % 0.5% 2014 or later 0.4% 2014 or later 110 0.4% 77 0.5% 2010 to 2013 5.4% 2010 to 2013 1,122 4.1% 783 5.4% 4.1% 19.0% 2000 to 2009 5,800 21.1% 2,777 19.0% 2000 to 2009 21.1% t l 1990 to 1999 6,759 24.5% 2,917 20.0% i 1990 to 1999 20.0%
u 24.5% B
1980 to 1989 5,023 18.2% 2,639 18.1% r 1980 to 1989 18.1%
a 18.2% e
1970 to 1979 4,441 16.1% 2,827 19.4% Y 19.4% 1970 to 1979 16.1% 1960 to 1969 1,637 5.9% 893 6.1% 1960 to 1969 6.1% 1950 to 1959 1,045 3.8% 468 3.2% 5.9% Jackson Village 3.2% Market Area 1940 to 1949 529 1.9% 305 2.1% 1950 to 1959 3.8% 2.1% 1939 or earlier 1,067 3.9% 895 6.1% 1940 to 1949 1.9% Greater TOTAL 27,533 100% 14,581 100% 6.1% Fredericksburg 1939 or earlier 3.9% MEDIAN YEAR BUILT 1990 1986 0% 10% 20% 30% % of Dwelling Units Source: American Community Survey 2012-2016
Table 22 Value of Owner Occupied Housing Stock
Greater Jackson Village 2012-2016 Home Value Jackson Village Market 2012-2016 Home Value Fredericksburg Market Area 1.1% Area $750> 2.1% # % # % $500-$749K 3.7% Greater Fredericksburg less than $60,000 2,960 4.2% 1,192 4.8% 7.3% 7.6% $60,000 $99,999 1,264 1.8% 386 1.6% $400-$499K 10.7% $100,000 $149,999 4,100 5.8% 1,638 6.6% $300-$399K 22.4% ) 25.4% s
$150,000 $199,999 8,256 11.8% 3,953 16.0% 0
0 $200-$299K 36.2% $200,000 $299,999 21,614 30.8% 8,963 36.2% 0 30.8% $ ( 16.0% $300,000 $399,999 17,801 25.4% 5,537 22.4% e $150-$199K
u 11.8% l $400,000 $499,999 7,501 10.7% 1,875 7.6% a 6.6% V $100-149k 5.8% $500,000 $749,999 5,155 7.3% 925 3.7% e
m 1.6% $750,000 over 1,503 2.1% 275 1.1% o $60-$99K 1.8% H Total 70,154 100% 24,744 100% 4.8% < $60K 4.2% Median Value $285,578 $258,049 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Source: American Community Survey 2012-2016 % of Owner Occupied Dwellings
C. Survey of General Occupancy Rental Communities
1. Introduction to the Rental Housing Survey As part of this analysis, RPRG surveyed 29 general occupancy rental communities. The 29 surveyed communities contain a total of 6,300 rental units. Age-restricted rental communities and subsidized communities were excluded from the survey. Thirteen communities contain at least some LIHTC units while the rest are exclusively market rate. Profile sheets with detailed information on each surveyed community, including photographs, are attached as Appendix 4.
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2. Location Most of the rental communities are located in the northern portion of the market area, inside or close to the City of Fredericksburg (Map 5).
Map 5 Competitive Rental Communities, Jackson Village Market Area
3. Age of Communities The surveyed communities in the Jackson Village market area have an average placed in-service date of 1996 (Table 23). Nine communities reported undergoing a substantial renovation since being built, with an average rehabilitation year of 2006. The LIHTC communities have an average placed in service date of 1994; three report being rehabbed with an average date of 2003.
4. Structure Type Most of the surveyed properties are garden apartments. Only three properties consist of elevator- served, mid-rise buildings. One market rate community offers four townhome units in addition to the standard garden style units. Four communities offer only townhome units and one offers a single family detached product; all five of these communities are LIHTC properties.
5. Size of Communities The 29 surveyed communities range in size from the 26-unit Spotsylvania Courthouse Village to the 576-unit Brittany Commons. The average community size is 217 units.
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Table 23 Rental Communities Summary
Map Year Year Structure Total Vacant Vacancy Avg 1BR Avg 2BR # Community Built Rehab Type Units Units Rate Rent (1) Rent (1) Incentive
2BR: $500 off 1 mo; 1 Abberly at Southpoint 2016 Mid Rise 280 71 25.4% $1,317 $1,612 2BR/2.5BA: $1000 off 1 mo 2 Silver Collection at Cosners Cor 2016 Garden/TH 274 20 7.3% $1,248 $1,572 1 mo free 3 Mark at Salem Station 1996 2013 Garden 224 4 1.8% $1,228 $1,486 None 4 Apts at Cobblestone Square 2011 Mid Rise 314 3 1.0% $1,255 $1,442 Daily Pricing 5 Station Sq at Cosner's Corner 2012 Garden 380 3 0.8% $1,535 $1,433 Daily Pricing 6 Merchant's Sq Residences 2015 Garden 66 4 6.1% $1,107 $1,401 1mofree w/ 13 mo lease 7 Riverside Manor** 2000 Townhouse 188 5 2.7% $1,380 Daily Pricing 8 Seasons at Celebrate Virginia 2011 Garden 482 9 1.9% $1,231 $1,368 Select 1 & 2BR: 1 mo free 9 Southpoint Reserve at Stoney Cr 1985 2007 Garden 156 7 4.5% $1,121 $1,314 Daily Pricing 10 SpotsylvaniaCourthouseVillage 2009 Mid Rise 26 1 3.8% $1,038 $1,311 1mofree w/ 13 mo lease 11 Valor Apartments** 2017 Garden 128 1 0.8% $1,121 $1,299 None 12 Windover Villas** 1997 Single Family 90 1 1.1% None 13 Kilburn Crossing 2004 Garden 220 7 3.2% $1,164 $1,291 $1000 off 2BR 14 Breezewood 1987 Garden 300 8 2.7% $1,032 $1,259 Daily Pricing 15 Brittany Commons 1998 2002 Garden 576 25 4.3% $1,145 $1,233 Seclect units: reduced rent 16 Residences at Belmont 1987 2008 Garden 300 12 4.0% $1,096 $1,197 None 17 Timber Ridge TH** 1999 Townhouse 147 2 1.4% $1,133 None 18 Crestview** 2000 Garden 180 1 0.6% $1,069 $1,129 None 19 Salem Fields TH** 2002 Townhouse 139 4 2.9% Daily Pricing 20 River Woods of Fredericksburg 1979 2007 Garden 187 0 0.0% $1,014 $1,088 None 21 Colonial Village at Greenbrier 1965 Garden 258 4 1.6% $975 $1,083 Daily Pricing 22 Overlook Terrace** 2016 Garden 72 3 4.2% $905 $1,073 None 23 Townsend Square** 1995 Garden 200 3 1.5% $1,066 None 24 Wicklow Sq & Weston Circle** 1963 2003 Garden 246 6 2.4% $960 $1,051 None 25 Greens of Salem Run** 1999 Townhouse 200 2 1.0% $1,049 $1000 off 1st mo 26 Commons at Cowan Blvd 1980 2009 Garden 254 10 3.9% $942 $1,021 None 27 Salem Run I & II** 1996 Garden 268 12 4.5% $1,020 None 28 Forest Village** 1970 2002 Garden 71 3 4.2% $847 $947 None 29 Heritage Park I & II** 1973 2003 Garden 74 0 0.0% $690 None Total/Average 1996 2006 6,300 231 3.7% $1,112 $1,241 Stabilized Total/Average 6,020 160 2.7% LIHTC/Total Average 1994 2,003 43 2.1% (**) Tax Credit Communities (1) Rent is contract rent, and not adjusted for utilities or incentives Source: Field Survey, RPRG, Inc. Jan.2018
6. Vacancy Rates The stabilized average vacancy rate within the Jackson Village market area is 2.7 percent, indicative of a healthy market. The stabilized vacancy rate does not include Abberly at Southpoint which is undergoing initial lease-up. The vacancy rate among LIHTC communities was 2.1 percent. Five of the communities reported a vacancy of five percent or greater and two communities reported being 100 percent leased. The community with the highest vacancy is Silver Collection at Cosner’s Corner which reported a vacancy rate of 7.3 percent. Management could not provide a reason for the elevated vacancy, but assumes it is seasonal.
7. Rent Concessions Of the 29 communities surveyed, eight are offering some type of rental concession, ranging from reduced pricing on select floorplans to one month free. Another seven communities reported using LRO or Yieldstar pricing software, which changes rents on a daily basis based on a variety of market trends, effectively incorporating incentives into the daily adjustments. Only one of the 13 LIHTC communities is offering a rental concession with another two on daily pricing.
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8. Absorption History One community is currently undergoing lease up and six communities have completed lease up since 2011:
The 232-unit Phase I of Seasons at Celebrate Virginia (initially known as the Haven at Celebrate Virginia I) opened on March 1, 2011. The community reached 95 percent occupancy (220 units leased) by the end of August 2011, a period of just six months. Absorption for Seasons at Celebrate Virginia Phase I averaged nearly 37 units per month. When it was constructed, Seasons was the first market rate, amenitied community to be placed in service since 2004 and only the second since 2000. As such, there was clearly pent up demand for new product. Phase II of Seasons, located adjacent to Phase I, is a 250- unit community placed in service on December 20, 2012. Phase II reached 95 percent leased by the end of March 2014 for an average absorption of 17 units per month. Despite offering the same product in the same location as Seasons Phase I, absorption was much slower for Phase II, presumably because much of the heretofore pent up demand for luxury product had been satisfied. Subsequent to the lease-up of Seasons Phase I, and prior to the introduction of Seasons Phase II, the Apartments at Cobblestone Square was placed in service on November 29, 2011. Cobblestone Square was 95 percent leased by the end of September 2012, within 10 months. The 298 units leased over the 10-month period translate to an average absorption rate of about 30 units per month. In addition to meeting the still unmet demand for luxury product (Phase II of Seasons did not open until December 2012), this community was the first (and still the only) larger, amenitied, general occupancy elevator-serviced community in this market area. The 260-unit Phase I of Station Square at Cosner’s Corner was placed in service on August 1, 2012. Initially known as Haven at Cosner’s Corner, the property was 95 percent leased by the end of May 2014 for an absorption rate of 12 units per month. Station Square has the same appearance, amenities, and features as the aforementioned Seasons at Celebrate Virginia (both were developed by Johnson Development and are now owned/managed by MAA); however, absorption was slower for this community. Onsite management reported minimal traffic throughout early 2014 despite continued interest in sister property Seasons which offers the same product with similar access to shopping and neighborhood amenities. As such, onsite staff reasonably attributed this disparity to Seasons’ location one exit further north on I-95, which is notoriously congested with weekday commuters to Washington, DC and northern Virginia. Phase II of Station Square, located adjacent to Phase I, is a 120-unit addition to the community which opened in December 2015 and stabilized in May 2016, for an absorption of 23 units per month. Staff attributed this increased pace to the fact that it was the only large community offering new units and the significant discount offered during lease up. Overlook Terrace is a 72-unit LIHTC community that opened February 1, 2016. The community stabilized in August 2016 for an average absorption of 12 units per month. The community includes one-, two- and three-bedroom units restricted to households at or below 50 percent AMI. This garden-style community is located within two miles of the Spotsylvania Regional Medical Center, just east of I-95. The 274-unit Silver Collection at Cosner’s Corner is a high-end garden-style rental community which had its first tenants move-in on June 25, 2016. The property includes one- to three-bedroom market rate units as well as attached and detached garages. Amenities include concierge service, gated access, resort style pool/terrace, grilling area and outdoor fireplace, clubhouse with beverage café and meeting room, fitness center
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with yoga and cardio rooms, business center, cyber lounge, and media/game lounge. The community stabilized in late July 2017, resulting in an absorption pace of 20 units per month. Valor Apartments opened in March 2017 with 128 LIHTC units. The property stabilized in November for an average absorption pace of 15 units per month. Abberly at Southpoint opened on December 2, 2016 and is in lease up. The community is adjacent to Southpoint Shoppes on the west side of Southpoint Parkway. The community offers high-end unit finishes, controlled access gating, a clubhouse with business lounge, and outdoor swimming pool among other upscale amenities. As of late December 2017, 209 units had been leased, which is an approximate average absorption pace of 17 units per month.
D. Analysis of Rental Pricing and Product
1. Payment of Utility Costs Under the proposed rent structure, all utility expenses will be the responsibility of the tenant except for trash removal. This is also the arrangement at seven surveyed communities (Table 24). Fourteen communities do not include any utilities in the rent. The remaining communities include water/sewer and trash removal in the rent.
2. Unit Features All of the properties provide a basic set of kitchen appliances, including a dishwasher. Nine properties provide microwaves. Most of the surveyed properties include in-unit washer/dryer units as a standard feature, however, five communities only provide washer/dryer hook ups and two communities provide washer/dryers in select units. Two communities do not provide any type of in-unit laundry.
3. Parking All surveyed communities include free surface parking as their standard parking option. Five communities offer detached garage spaces for a fee of $99-150 per month. Two communities offer covered spaces for a fee of $20-35 per month. Some of the units in Riverside Manor include attached garages and those units rent for more than non-garage units, but the additional fee varies by unit and availability. All units at Windover Villas have integral garages.
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Table 24 Utility Arrangement and Unit Features - Jackson Village Market Area
Utilities Included in Rent r e t g a c i n r i r h W e t t k
Dish- Micro- In-Unit t s c t a o a a e e o o Community Heat Type l r washer wave Parking Laundry H H C E W T
Subject Property Elec o o o o o x Std Std Surface Std Abberly at Southpoint Elec o o o o o o Std Std Det Garage/$150 Std Apts at Cobblestone Square Elec o o o o o o Std Std Det Garage/$145 Std Breezewood Elec o o o o x x Std Surface Std Brittany Commons Gas o o o o o o Std Surface Std Colonial Village at Greenbrier Gas o o o o o x Std Surface Select Commons at Cowan Blvd Elec o o o o o o Std Surface Hook Ups Crestview Elec o o o o x x Std Surface Std Forest Village Gas o o o o x x Std Surface Greens of Salem Run Elec o o o o o x Std Surface Hook Ups Heritage Park I & II Elec o o o o x x Std Surface Kilburn Crossing Gas o o o o o o Std Surface Std Mark at Salem Station, The Gas o o o o o o Std Surface Std Merchant's Sq Residences Elec o o o o x x Std Std Surface Std Overlook Terrace Elec o o o o o x Std Surface Hook Ups Residences at Belmont Elec o o o o o o Std Std Carport/$35 Std River Woods of Fredericksburg Gas o o o o x x Std Carport/$20 Std Riverside Manor Elec o o o o o o Std Att Gar: Select Std Salem Fields TH Elec o o o o o o Std Surface Std Salem Run I & II Elec o o o o o x Std Surface Std Seasons at Celebrate Virginia Elec o o o o o o Std Std Det Garage/$150 Std Silver Collection at Cosners Corner Elec o o o o o o Std Std Det Garage/$150 Hook Ups Southpoint Reserve at Stoney Creek Elec o o o o o o Std Surface Std Spotsylvania Courthouse Village Elec o o o o x x Std Std Surface Std Station Square at Cosner's Corner Elec o o o o o o Std Std Det Garage/$99 Std Timber Ridge TH Elec o o o o o o Std Surface Std Townsend Square Elec o o o o o x Std Surface Std Valor Apartments Elec o o o o o x Std Std Surface Std Wicklow Sq & Weston Circle Elec o o o o x x Std Surface Select Windover Villas Elec o o o o o x Std Attached Garage Hook Ups Source: Field Survey, RPRG, Inc. Jan.2018
4. Community Amenities Generally, the newer or larger communities provide a full slate of amenities including fitness center, pool, business center, and clubhouse (Table 25). Spotsylvania Courthouse Village and Windover Villas do not provide any onsite amenities. Of the 29 communities surveyed, 26 offer a clubhouse/room, 24 offer a swimming pool, 19 have a playground, and 24 provide a fitness room. Tennis courts are relatively common (eight communities have them) and 13 have a business center. Seven provide some type of secured access, either to the buildings or the parking lot.
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Table 25 Rental Communities- Community Amenities, Jackson Village Market Area t y r r d t u e n
n o s s u E C u
s
o s r o s e e r s i e r h n g m l e t n i u b y o s n o n n c u a t o u l o l e e e i
Community C F R P P T B C S Subject Property x x x x o o x Abberly at Southpoint x x x o o x x Apts at Cobblestone Square x x x o o x x Breezewood x x x x x o x Brittany Commons x x x x x x x Colonial Village at Greenbrier x x x x o o o Commons at Cowan Blvd x x x x o o o Crestview x x x x o o o Forest Village x o o x o o o Greens of Salem Run x x x x x o o Heritage Park I & II x o o x o o o Kilburn Crossing x x x x x x x Mark at Salem Station, The x x x x o o o Merchant's Sq Residences o x o o o o o Overlook Terrace x o x x o o o Residences at Belmont x x x o x o o River Woods of Fredericksburg x x x x o o o Riverside Manor x x x o o x o Salem Fields TH x x x x o x o Salem Run I & II x x x x x o o Seasons at Celebrate Virginia x x x o o x x Silver Collection at Cosners Corner x x x o o x o Southpoint Reserve at Stoney Creek x x x x x x o Spotsylvania Courthouse Village o o o o o o x Station Square at Cosner's Corner x x x o o x x Timber Ridge TH x x x x o o o Townsend Square x x x x o x o Valor Apartments x x x x o x o Wicklow Sq & Weston Circle x x x x x x x Windover Villas o o o o o o o Source: Field Survey, RPRG, Inc. Jan.2018
5. Distribution of Units by Bedroom Type Two-bedroom units are the most common unit type offered in this market (Table 26). Based on reported unit distribution, 28 percent are one-bedroom units, 58 percent are two-bedroom units, and 15 percent are three-bedroom units. Three communities offer four-bedroom units and one community offers studios; these floorplans are not depicted in Table 26.
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Table 26 Unit Distribution, Size and Pricing, Jackson Village Market Area
Total One Bedroom Units Two Bedroom Units Three Bedroom Units Community Units Units Rent(1) SF Rent/SF Units Rent(1) SF Rent/SF Units Rent(1) SF Rent/SF Subject Property 76 18 $1,075 790 $1.36 55 $1,300 1,088 $1.19 3 $1,450 1,402 $1.03 Abberly at Southpoint 280 118 $1,327 861 $1.54 156 $1,575 1,297 $1.21 6 $1,973 1,496 $1.32 Riverside Manor 45 24 $1,554 1,280 $1.21 21 $1,672 1,464 $1.14 Mark at Salem Station 224 100 $1,238 794 $1.56 100 $1,496 994 $1.50 24 $1,583 1,196 $1.32 Apts at Cobblestone Square 314 118 $1,265 674 $1.88 196 $1,452 1,057 $1.37 Silver Collection at Cosners Cor 274 120 $1,154 770 $1.50 142 $1,451 1,178 $1.23 12 $1,796 1,398 $1.28 Station Sq at Cosner's Corner 380 180 $1,530 816 $1.87 162 $1,423 1,196 $1.19 38 $1,461 1,514 $0.96 Riverside Manor 60%** 143 76 $1,338 1,280 $1.05 67 $1,429 1,465 $0.98 Southpoint Reserve at Stoney Cr 156 68 $1,131 569 $1.99 80 $1,324 855 $1.55 8 $1,414 1,075 $1.31 Valor Apartments 60%** 128 16 $1,121 893 $1.26 72 $1,299 1,165 $1.11 40 $1,531 1,342 $1.14 Merchant's Sq Residences 66 36 $1,006 864 $1.17 30 $1,273 1,223 $1.04 Seasons at Celebrate Virginia 482 248 $1,169 834 $1.40 208 $1,264 1,158 $1.09 26 $1,709 1,300 $1.31 Brittany Commons 576 77 $1,116 798 $1.40 389 $1,243 1,082 $1.15 110 $1,484 1,295 $1.15 Breezewood 300 140 $1,017 646 $1.57 160 $1,239 990 $1.25 Kilburn Crossing 220 18 $1,174 826 $1.42 160 $1,220 1,143 $1.07 42 $1,641 1,376 $1.19 Residences at Belmont 300 150 $1,106 743 $1.49 150 $1,207 958 $1.26 Spotsylvania Courthouse Village 26 14 $943 824 $1.14 12 $1,190 1,185 $1.00 Timber Ridge TH 60%** 147 84 $1,143 1,156 $0.99 63 $1,224 1,440 $0.85 Crestview 60%** 180 24 $1,054 868 $1.21 120 $1,109 988 $1.12 36 $1,334 1,128 $1.18 Colonial Village at Greenbrier 247 68 $972 749 $1.32 150 $1,087 897 $1.23 18 $1,453 1,120 $1.30 Overlook Terrace 50%** 72 8 $905 800 $1.13 44 $1,073 1,126 $0.95 20 $1,203 1,399 $0.86 River Woods of Fredericksburg 187 79 $999 785 $1.27 108 $1,068 948 $1.13 Townsend Square 60%** 200 156 $1,066 894 $1.19 44 $1,240 1,063 $1.17 Windover Villas 60%** 45 45 $1,531 1,440 $1.06 Salem Fields TH 60%** 100 100 $1,329 1,450 $0.92 Salem Run I & II 60%** 54 54 $1,035 1,100 $0.94 Commons at Cowan Blvd 254 69 $952 747 $1.27 169 $1,031 838 $1.23 16 $1,310 1,069 $1.23 Wicklow Sq & Weston Circle 60%** 246 36 $945 681 $1.39 198 $1,031 953 $1.08 12 $1,035 1,144 $0.90 Salem Run I & II 50%** 214 160 $1,015 1,100 $0.92 54 $1,145 1,325 $0.86 Greens of Salem Run 60%** 182 104 $966 1,093 $0.88 78 $1,112 1,309 $0.85 Forest Village 60%** 71 13 $847 743 $1.14 44 $947 952 $0.99 14 $1,052 1,090 $0.97 Heritage Park I & II 5 5 $743 969 $0.77 Heritage Park I & II 60%** 74 48 $670 825 $0.81 26 $743 969 $0.77 Total/Average 6,192 $1,094 776 $1.41 $1,200 1,066 $1.13 $1,366 1,273 $1.07 Unit Distribution 6,192 1,700 3,556 925 % of Total 100.0% 27.5% 57.4% 14.9% (**) Tax Credit Units (^^) Community with 4BR units not depicted: Greens at Salem Run (18), Salem Field TH (39), Windover Villas (45) (++) Community has 11 studio units not depicted. (1) Rent is adjusted to include Trash, and Incentives Source: Field Survey, RPRG, Inc. Jan.2018
6. Effective Rents Unit rents presented in Table 26 are net or effective rents, as opposed to street or advertised rents and have been adjusted for rental incentives. The net rents reflect adjustments to street rents to equalize the impact of utility expenses across complexes. Specifically, the net rents represent the hypothetical situation where only trash collection is included in monthly rents at all communities, as will be the case at the subject property. One-bedroom units average $1,094 and range from a low of $847 to a high of $1,327 per month. The average size is 776 square feet, which translates to an average one-bedroom net rent per square foot of $1.41. Two-bedroom effective rents within surveyed communities average $1,200 for 1,066 square feet, amounting to an average rent per square foot of $1.13. Two-bedroom rents range from $670 to $1,575 per month.
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Three-bedroom rents average $1,366 per month. The average three-bedroom square footage is 1,273 square feet. The average net rent per square foot is thus $1.07. The range for three-bedroom net rents is $743 to $1,973.
E. Derivation of Market Rent To better understand how the proposed contract rents for Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II compare with the surveyed rental market, the contract rents of comparable communities can be adjusted for differences in a variety of factors including curb appeal, structure age, square footage, the handling of utilities, and shared amenities. Market-rate communities are the most desirable comparables to be used in this type of analysis, as the use of market-rate communities allows RPRG to derive an estimate of market rent.
The purpose of this exercise is to determine whether the proposed LIHTC rents for the subject offer a value relative to market-rate rent levels within a given market area. The rent derived for bedroom type is not to be confused with an appraisal or rent comparability study (RCS) based approach, which is more specific as it compares specific models in comparable rental communities to specific floor plans at the subject and is used for income/expense analysis and valuation.
Cobblestone Square and Abberly Southpoint are the only large, amenitied communities in the market area that offer midrise units like the subject and we used those as comparable properties. For the third comparable we used Silver Collection at Cosner’s Corner, a nearby garden-style community, and made an adjustment for elevator service. Cobblestone Square does not offer three-bedroom units; for the third comparable in that floorplan we used Station Square at Cosner’s Corner, another nearby garden-style community, and made an adjustment for elevator service. Once a particular floorplan’s market rent has been determined, it can be used to evaluate: a.) whether or not the subject project has a rent advantage or disadvantage versus competing communities, and b.) the extent of that rent advantage or disadvantage.
The derivation of achievable rent calculations for the 60 percent of AMI units are displayed in Table 27, Table 28 and Table 29. The results of the calculations are summarized in Table 30. The assumptions used in the calculations are shown in Table 31.
After adjustments, the estimated market rent for a one-bedroom unit is $1,258, providing the subject’s one-bedroom units with a market advantage of 14.6 percent. The estimated market rent for two-bedroom unit is $1,475, resulting in the subject having a 11.8 percent rent advantage. The estimated market rent for three-bedroom unit is $1,645, resulting in the subject having a 11.8 percent rent advantage.
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Table 27 Market Rent Analysis – One-Bedroom Units
One-Bedroom Units Subject Property Comparable Property #1 Comparable Property #2 Comparable Property #3 Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II Apts at Cobblestone Sq Silver Collection at Cosners Corner Abberly at Southpoint 9121 Jefferson Davis Hwy 627 Cobblestone Circle 9500 Silver Collection Circle 10500 Southpoint Way Fredericksburg, VA Fredericksburg VA Fredericksburg VA Fredericksburg VA A. Rents Charged Subject Data $ Adj. Data $ Adj. Data $ Adj. Effective Rent $1,075 $1,265 $1,154 $1,327 In parts B thru D, adjustments were made only for differences B. Design, Location, Condition Data $ Adj. Data $ Adj. Data $ Adj. Structure / Stories Midrise Midrise $0 Garden $50 Midrise $0 Year Built / Renovated 2019 2011 $16 2016 $6 2016 $6 Quality/Street Appeal Above Average Excellent ($10) Excellent ($10) Excellent ($10) Location Average Above Average ($10) Average $0 Average $0 C. Unit Equipment / Amenities Data $ Adj. Data $ Adj. Data $ Adj. Number of Bedrooms 1 1 $0 1 $0 1 $0 Number of Bathrooms 1 1 $0 1 $0 1 $0 Unit Interior Square Feet 790 674 $29 770 $5 861 ($18) Balcony / Patio / Porch No Yes ($5) Yes ($5) Yes ($5) AC Type: Central Central $0 Central $0 Central $0 Range / Refrigerator Yes / Yes Yes / Yes $0 Yes / Yes $0 Yes / Yes $0 Microwave / Dishwasher Yes / Yes Yes / Yes $0 Yes / Yes $0 Yes / Yes $0 Washer / Dryer: In Unit Yes Yes $0 Yes $0 Yes $0 Washer / Dryer: Hook-ups No No $0 No $0 No $0 D. Site Equipment / Amenities Data $ Adj. Data $ Adj. Data $ Adj. Secure Entry to Buildings Yes Yes $0 No $5 Yes $0 Club House Yes Yes $0 Yes $0 Yes $0 Pool Yes Yes $0 Yes $0 Yes $0 Business Center No Yes ($5) Yes ($5) Yes ($5) Fitness Center Yes Yes $0 Yes $0 Yes $0 E. Adjustments Recap Positive Negative Positive Negative Positive Negative Total Number of Adjustments 2 4 4 3 1 4 Sum of Adjustments B to D $45 ($30) $66 ($20) $6 ($38) F. Total Summary Gross Total Adjustment $75 $86 $44 Net Total Adjustment $15 $46 ($32) G. Adjusted And Achievable Rents Adj. Rent Adj. Rent Adj. Rent Adjusted Rent $1,280 $1,200 $1,295 % of Effective Rent 101.2% 104.0% 97.6% Estimated Market Rent $1,258 Rent Advantage $ $183 Rent Advantage % 14.6%
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Table 28 Market Rent Analysis – Two-Bedroom Units
Two-Bedroom Units Subject Property Comparable Property #1 Comparable Property #2 Comparable Property #3 Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II Apts at Cobblestone Sq Silver Collection at Cosners Corner Abberly at Southpoint 9121 Jefferson Davis Hwy 627 Cobblestone Circle 9500 Silver Collection Circle 10500 Southpoint Way Fredericksburg, VA Fredericksburg VA Fredericksburg VA Fredericksburg VA A. Rents Charged Subject Data $ Adj. Data $ Adj. Data $ Adj. Effective Rent $1,300 $1,452 $1,451 $1,575 In parts B thru D, adjustments were made only for differences B. Design, Location, Condition Data $ Adj. Data $ Adj. Data $ Adj. Structure / Stories Midrise Midrise $0 Garden $50 Midrise $0 Year Built / Condition 2019 2011 $16 2016 $6 2016 $6 Quality/Street Appeal Above Average Excellent ($10) Excellent ($10) Excellent ($10) Location Average Above Average ($10) Average $0 Average $0 C. Unit Equipment / Amenities Data $ Adj. Data $ Adj. Data $ Adj. Number of Bedrooms 2 2 $0 2 $0 2 $0 Number of Bathrooms 2 2 $0 2 $0 2 $0 Unit Interior Square Feet 1,088 1,057 $8 1,178 ($23) 1,297 ($52) Balcony / Patio / Porch No Yes ($5) Yes ($5) Yes ($5) AC: (C)entral / (W)all / (N)one Central Central $0 Central $0 Central $0 Range / Refrigerator Yes / Yes Yes / Yes $0 Yes / Yes $0 Yes / Yes $0 Microwave / Dishwasher Yes / Yes Yes / Yes $0 Yes / Yes $0 Yes / Yes $0 Washer / Dryer: In Unit Yes Yes $0 Yes $0 Yes $0 Washer / Dryer: Hook-ups No No $0 No $0 No $0 D. Site Equipment / Amenities Data $ Adj. Data $ Adj. Data $ Adj. Secure Entry to Buildings Yes Yes $0 No $5 Yes $0 Club House Yes Yes $0 Yes $0 Yes $0 Pool Yes Yes $0 Yes $0 Yes $0 Business Center No Yes ($5) Yes ($5) Yes ($5) Fitness Center Yes Yes $0 Yes $0 Yes $0 E. Adjustments Recap Positive Negative Positive Negative Positive Negative Total Number of Adjustments 2 4 3 4 1 4 Sum of Adjustments B to D $24 ($30) $61 ($43) $6 ($72) F. Total Summary Gross Total Adjustment $54 $104 $78 Net Total Adjustment ($6) $18 ($66) G. Adjusted And Achievable Rents Adj. Rent Adj. Rent Adj. Rent Adjusted Rent $1,446 $1,469 $1,509 % of Effective Rent 99.6% 101.2% 95.8% Estimated Market Rent $1,475 Rent Advantage $ $175 Rent Advantage % 11.8%
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Table 29 Market Rent Analysis – Three-Bedroom Units
Three Bedroom Units Subject Property Comparable Property #1 Comparable Property #2 Comparable Property #3 Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II Station Square at Cosners Cor Silver Collection at Cosners Corner Abberly at Southpoint 9121 Jefferson Davis Hwy 9419 Cumberland Dr 9500 Silver Collection Circle 10500 Southpoint Way Fredericksburg, VA Fredericksburg VA Fredericksburg VA Fredericksburg VA A. Rents Charged Subject Data $ Adj. Data $ Adj. Data $ Adj. Effective Rent $1,450 $1,461 $1,796 $1,973 In parts B thru D, adjustments were made only for differences B. Design, Location, Condition Data $ Adj. Data $ Adj. Data $ Adj. Structure / Stories Midrise Garden $50 Garden $50 Midrise $0 Year Built / Condition 2019 2012 $14 2016 $6 2016 $6 Quality/Street Appeal Above Average Excellent ($10) Excellent ($10) Excellent ($10) Location Average Average $0 Average $0 Average $0 C. Unit Equipment / Amenities Data $ Adj. Data $ Adj. Data $ Adj. Number of Bedrooms 3 3 $0 3 $0 3 $0 Number of Bathrooms 2 2 $0 2 $0 2 $0 Unit Interior Square Feet 1,402 1,514 ($28) 1,398 $1 1,496 ($24) Balcony / Patio / Porch No Yes ($5) Yes ($5) Yes ($5) AC: (C)entral / (W)all / (N)one Central Central $0 Central $0 Central $0 Range / Refrigerator Yes / Yes Yes / Yes $0 Yes / Yes $0 Yes / Yes $0 Microwave / Dishwasher Yes / Yes Yes / Yes $0 Yes / Yes $5 Yes / Yes $0 Washer / Dryer: In Unit Yes Yes $0 Yes $0 Yes $0 Washer / Dryer: Hook-ups No No $0 No $0 No $0 D. Site Equipment / Amenities Data $ Adj. Data $ Adj. Data $ Adj. Secure Entry to Buildings Yes No $5 No $5 Yes $0 Club House Yes Yes $0 Yes $0 Yes $0 Pool Yes Yes $0 Yes $0 Yes $0 Business Center No Yes ($5) Yes ($5) Yes ($5) Fitness Center Yes Yes $0 Yes $0 Yes $0 E. Adjustments Recap Positive Negative Positive Negative Positive Negative Total Number of Adjustments 3 4 5 3 1 4 Sum of Adjustments B to D $69 ($48) $67 ($20) $6 ($44) F. Total Summary Gross Total Adjustment $117 $87 $50 Net Total Adjustment $21 $47 ($38) G. Adjusted And Achievable Rents Adj. Rent Adj. Rent Adj. Rent Adjusted Rent $1,482 $1,843 $1,935 % of Effective Rent 101.4% 102.6% 98.1% Estimated Market Rent $1,645 Rent Advantage $ $195 Rent Advantage % 11.8%
Table 30 Market Rent Advantage - Summary
One Bedroom Two Bedroom Three Bedroom 60% AMI Units Units Units Units Subject Rent $1,075 $1,300 $1,450 Estimated Market Rent $1,258 $1,475 $1,645 Rent Advantage ($) $183 $175 $195 Rent Advantage (%) 14.6% 11.8% 11.8%
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Table 31 Market Rent Advantage – Adjustment Table
Rent Adjustments Summary B. Design, Location, Condition Structure / Stories $50.00 Year Built / Renovated $2.00 Quality/Street Appeal $10.00 Location $10.00 C. Unit Equipment / Amenities Number of Bedrooms $25.00 Number of Bathrooms $30.00 Unit Interior Square Feet $0.25 Balcony / Patio / Porch $5.00 AC Type: $5.00 Range / Refrigerator $25.00 Microwave / Dishwasher $5.00 Washer / Dryer: In Unit $25.00 Washer / Dryer: Hook-ups $5.00 D. Site Equipment / Amenities Secure Entry to Buildings $5.00 Club House $10.00 Pool $10.00 Business Center $5.00 Fitness Center $10.00
F. Achievable Restricted Rents
The market rent derived above is an estimate of what a willing landlord might reasonably expect to receive, and a willing tenant might reasonably expect to pay for a unit at the subject. However, as a tax credit community, the maximum rent that a project owner can charge for a low-income unit is a gross rent based on bedroom size and applicable HUD’s median household income for the subject area. If these LIHTC maximum gross/net rents are below the market rent, then the maximum rents also function as the achievable rents for each unit type and income band. Conversely, if the market rents are below the LIHTC maximum rents, then the market rents act as the achievable rents. Additionally, tax credit rents should have a 10 percent advantage over market rents. Therefore, achievable rents are the lower of the (reduced) market rent or LIHTC rent.
As shown in Table 32, the maximum LIHTC rents are greater than the adjusted estimated market rents. Therefore, the adjusted market rents are the achievable rents for all units. All proposed rents for the subject are below the achievable rents.
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Table 32 Achievable Tax Credit Rent
One Bedroom Two Bedroom Three Bedroom 60% AMI Units Units Units Units Estimated Market Rent $1,258 $1,475 $1,645 Less 10% $1,133 $1,328 $1,481 Maximum LIHTC Rent* $1,149 $1,371 $1,586 Achievable Rent $1,133 $1,328 $1,481 SUBJECT RENT $1,075 $1,300 $1,450 *Assumes the following utility allowances: 1BR: $93; 2BR: $118; 3BR: $135
G. Proposed and Under Construction Rental Communities RPRG pursued several avenues of research in an attempt to identify residential rental projects that are actively being planned or that are currently under construction in the Jackson Village market area. We interviewed Planner Jacob Pastwik with Spotsylvania County and Development Administrator and Code Enforcement Officer Marne Sherman with the City of Fredericksburg. In addition to the interviews, we accessed listings of projects that recently received allocations of Low-Income Housing Tax Credits from the Virginia Housing Development Authority (VHDA). Finally, we reviewed articles in the on-line archives of the Washington Business Journal and at Fredericksburg.com.
The pipeline communities are divided into two categories: near term and long term. Near term projects include those that are under construction, and those that we believe have the greatest likelihood of delivering in the next three years. Near term projects are taken into account in our derivation of three-year rental demand. Long term projects do not have financing secured, are on hold for the present, and/or have estimated delivery dates beyond the next three years. While it is RPRG’s best estimate that such projects are long term, it is entirely possible that such a project could secure financing and deliver in a three-year period. Conversely, it is also possible that a project designated near-term could become further stalled, tabled, or abandoned all together.
Based on our research, RPRG has identified seven multifamily rental developments that will likely come on-line in the next three years. Another eight projects were identified where the timing is likely to be longer term. Details about the pipeline rental projects, the locations of which are highlighted on Map 6, are listed below.
Near Term
Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village (LIHTC). As noted earlier, the first phase of the subject is under construction. The 169-unit community will serve general occupancy households earning up to 60 percent AMI. Construction is under way and the first units are expected to deliver in May 2018.
Hanover House. Vakos is constructing this five-story mixed-use building with ground floor retail and 53 apartments at the Spotsylvania Courthouse Village mixed-use site. The community will include 22 one-bedroom units and 31 two-bedroom units. According to Christian Waller, Senior Vice President of Commercial Deal-Making at W.J. Vakos Companies, the units will include higher-end features and finishes. The first residents will move in during early March 2018.
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New Post Apartments (LIHTC). The Humanities Foundation was awarded competitive 9 percent Low-Income Housing Tax Credits in the VHDA 2015 application round. This community will be located in the New Post area at 1801 Nottingham Drive, near the intersection of VA-17 and VA-2. The 102-unit general occupancy project will include one-, two-, and three-bedroom units targeting households at 40, 50, and 60 percent AMI. Almost one-half of the units will be targeted to households at 60 percent AMI, including five one- bedroom units, 25 two-bedroom units, and 20 three-bedroom units. Amenities will include community space with meeting area, business center, exercise room, and central laundry. Construction is nearing completion and the first residents could move in as early as January 31, 2018. Valor Phase II. S.L. Nusbaum is planning to locate Phase II of the recently opened Valor LIHTC community on a nearby site on Fall Hill Avenue at Briscoe Lane in the Celebrate Virginia South development. Plans for the site include another 120 multifamily LIHTC rental units at 60 percent AMI. Silver Collection at Celebrate (Fredericksburg). The Silver Companies has received site plan approval for a 577-unit multifamily development to be located on 24 acres at Carl D. Silver Parkway and Hospitality Lane, north of Wegmans grocery. Of the total units, 208 would be age restricted, and the remaining 369 units would be upper-end, market rate units. The first phase of development would be market rate units. A street improvement plan is now under review, but this will not delay the project from moving forward. RPRG is awaiting a response from The Silver Companies for an estimate on the timing and number of units of a first phase of market rate units at the site. For the purposes of this analysis, we assume an initial phase of 278 units, which is in line with first phases at other Silver Companies properties in the area. Crossroads Station. This proposed mixed-use development is located next to the Virginia Railway Express (VRE) commuter rail station. Crossroads Station, the proposed 46-acre development located off the U.S. 17 Bypass at Crossroads Business Park, would have up to 610 apartments and up to 950,000 square feet of commercial space. Initially, 187 market- rate multifamily units will be built with the remaining units to be built at a later date depending on demand. Site work is underway.
Allure at Jefferson (Jackson Village market rate community). This community would offer 388 rental apartments and a clubhouse with common areas and amenities. Early plans depicted walk-up buildings with enclosed corridors and a limited number of attached garages. The Breeden Company proposes to develop one-, two-, and three-bedroom units. Finishes and amenities will be upscale and competitive in the local Upper Tier market. Allure at Jefferson will be located along the northern boundary of the Jackson Village development. This part of the site is located closer to Spotsylvania Regional Medical Center and adjacent to Cosner’s Corner shopping center. Site work is underway.
Long Term
Fredericksburg Park. The Garrett Companies has proposed a mixed-use development for 28 acres at Route 3 and Lafayette Boulevard in the city of Fredericksburg. Plans include 80 single-family homes to be built in the Telegraph Hill subdivision, 45 townhomes, 300 apartments, and 75,000 square feet of retail space. During a public hearing in August 2012, battlefield preservationists urged Fredericksburg City Council to vote against the subdivision plat due to its impact on the entrance to the National Military Park Fredericksburg Battlefield. The rezoning was ultimately approved in 2013 but with significant road improvements required prior to development. According to Sherman, a site plan will need to be submitted for each use following approval of the draft master
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plan. That said, HUD staff in Baltimore met with representatives for this community at a concept meeting in November 2016 at which time they indicated the 300-unit community would be an affordable rental community. Since then the developer filed Chapter 11 bankruptcy in May 2017, but Garrett said he is not giving up on the project. Chapter 11 gives a business a chance to reorganize and pay creditors over time. Given the phasing of this project, infrastructure improvements, and absence of an approved site plan, this community will not be included in our three-year demand calculation.
Mill District. After two years of working with the Fredericksburg City Council, developer Ed Whelan received the rezoning necessary for this project in January 2018. The proposed mixed-use development will be located near the Rappahannock River in downtown Fredericksburg’s historic Mill District. The first phase of the Mill District project will be the Germania Mill building, which will be built on the site of the old ice plant and BP station on Princess Anne Street. Its designed to look like two buildings, an older brick mill and a newer stone one that are connected by a bridge. The structure will include 70 multifamily units and Whelan has proffered to sell the apartments into condos within 10 years. The full site plan also includes another 20 apartments to be developed on the site of The Inn at the Old Silk Mill and The Silk Mill (the brick building behind the inn that is used for weddings and other events). Since these units will be rentals initially (for up to 10 years after construction) they could be included in the three-year demand estimate. That said, as of October 2016, Whelan indicated that other phases of the total redevelopment project require approval before he schedules construction of the residential units and that overall timing for the project has yet to be determined. Since then the project was denied a requested zoning variance in November 2017. According to Marne Sherman, no site plan has been submitted for apartments at the site, given the zoning issues still to be resolved. Given the uncertainty and possible longer term nature of this project it is unlikely to deliver during the next three years.
Palmers Creek Apartments. A rezoning request was submitted in November 2016 for a proposed 400-unit multifamily development to be located in Spotsylvania County, on the west side of Route 1 and about one mile south of Spotsylvania Parkway (8936 Jefferson Davis Highway). Virginia Properties Inc. is proposing a mixed-use project with commercial space, and Bonaventure Realty Group would develop the apartments. According to Planner Jacob Pastwik the rezoning application is still in the review process with the most recent comments issued to the developer in December 2017. No public hearings have been scheduled and staff are awaiting a response from their most recent comments. Given the early stage of approvals for this project, it will not be included in near term demand. Heritage Woods. The Spotsylvania Board of Supervisors approved the necessary rezoning for this subdivision in January 2014. Proposed by Walton International Group and known as Heritage Woods, the proposed development targets a 378-acre site roughly bounded by US-1, Massaponax Church Road, Smith Station Road, and Spotsylvania County Parkway. Walton envisions the phased building of as many as 1,060 total housing units, to include single-family detached homes, townhouses, and multifamily buildings. The developer has not submitted a site plan yet, but a preliminary plat submitted to the county in August 2014 included 188 apartments at the site. There has been no activity on this part of the development since then, however the developer has a site plan under review at this time for 63 single family detached lots and a spine road beginning at US-1, as well as an infrastructure plan for US-1 improvements. Given the lack of recent activity on the multifamily units, they will not be included in the near term demand.
Southpoint Landing. According to Planner Jacob Pastwik, W.J. Vakos Companies received the rezoning necessary for the proposed 76-acre Southpoint Landing development along
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Southpoint Parkway. The narrative submitted during the rezoning process indicates that Southpoint Landing would be a mixed-use development resulting in as many as 830 multifamily units, including the 280 units at Abberly Southpoint. A parcel located on the north side of Southpoint Parkway south of CarMax is designated for 450,000 square feet of commercial/retail space and additional multi-family residential units. In October 2017 a pre-application meeting was held for a proposed apartment complex to include 240 units. This pre-application process is for a Site Plan; it is by-right development and does not require rezoning. The applicant (Oxford Properties, LLC) and engineers received comments from planning staff but have not issued a response or submited a formal site plan application. Given the preliminary planning stage regarding these units, they will not be included in our demand calculation.
Alexander’s Crossing. Alexander’s Crossing is located directly across I-95 from Jackson Village. This large mixed use project eventually planned to be connected to Jackson Village via a new bridge over I-95. This rezoning was approved on December 2015. Project proffers state the property shall be developed for no greater than 2,607 residential units, including a housing mix of 1,118 multifamily units; 1,201 attached single family units; 518 single family detached units; and 230 senior living units (this may include nursing home, independent living, assisted living). Plans also include 1.5 million square feet of commercial space to include office, light industrial, and retail uses as well as a hotel. Developer Walton Virginia, LLC acknowledged the phasing is subject to change if they are able to attract a corporate tenant to a site closer to I-95. However, more than likely Phase I would include single family detached units in proximity to Massaponax Church Road on the far eastern side of the project area and developing in towards I-95 where more intense land uses are planned. Planner Jacob Pastwik did not have a firm timeline because the developer anticipates that development will be market driven, however they did project a three-year buildout on Phase I. Given the long term build out and absence of multifamily units in Phase I, this project will not be included in the three-year demand calculation.
Acqua. A rezoning application has been submitted for this proposed multifamily rental community of 288 units. The site is located near the intersection of Salem Church Road and Harrison Road in Spotsylvania County. A pre-application meeting and community meeting have been held, but the rezoning required to proceed has not been approved. Given the early stage of approvals for this project, it will not be included in near term demand.
Courthouse Road. According to Planner Jacob Pastwik, a pre-application was submitted earlier this month for a proposed rental community with 200-age restricted units. The site is located on Courthouse Road near the Leavells Rd intersection. Give the very early stage and limited details regarding this project, it is considered long-term.
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Map 6 Pipeline Rental Communities, Jackson Village Market Area
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8. FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS
A. Key Findings Based on the preceding review of the subject project and demographic and competitive housing trends in the Jackson Village market area, RPRG offers the following key findings:
1. Site and Neighborhood Analysis The subject site is suitable for development as an affordable rental community, situated within a developing neighborhood with convenient access to amenities and services as well as good access to Interstate 95 and employment nodes further north. The subject community will be located at approximately 9121 Jefferson David Highway in Spotsylvania County, approximately four miles south of the City of Fredericksburg. The subject community is located two miles from I-95 via exit 126 in a retail-oriented area where the nearby Cosner’s Corner retail center and Southpoint Shoppes development are still expanding. As such, an abundance of retail shopping and dining attractions are located within one mile of the site. Aside from the adjacent retail, the area is still heavily reliant on the automobile, so access to the local and regional road network is paramount. The site has good accessibility to the major thoroughfares and highways serving the Fredericksburg area. Access to US-1 is immediate and access to Interstate 95 is two miles from the site. A VRE station is approximately six miles from the subject site which will provides mass transit access to employment nodes in northern Virginia and Washington, DC via commuter rail.
2. Economic Context Although the local economy felt the effects of the last recession, it is still strong and growing. Led by a strong Trade-Transportation-Utilities sector as well as robust Government, Education Health, and Leisure-Hospitality sectors, Spotsylvania County’s unemployment rate has been consistently lower than or comparable to that of Virginia, which has experienced relatively low unemployment rates, and significantly lower than that of the nation at a whole. During the first ten months of 2017, 4.8 percent of the Spotsylvania County labor force was unemployed, compared to 3.8 percent of the Virginia labor force and 4.6 percent of the United States labor force. Spotsylvania County’s at-place employment growth has grown significantly since 2006. Employment has grown every year since 2000, except for 2009 when the county lost almost 1,200 jobs at the peak of the recession. The county recovered all of those jobs the following year and employment has continued to grow. As of second quarter 2017, there were 35,438 jobs in the county, which is a new peak for the county. Since 2006, the county has increased its at-place employment by 19 percent, adding almost 5,700 jobs.
3. Demographic Analysis The Jackson Village market area experienced robust household growth over the past decade. A forecast of continued household growth for the next five years should continue to generate demand for housing units of all types.
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The household base of the Jackson Village market area grew by 31 percent between 2000 and 2010, for an annual rate of 2.7 percent or 889 households. RPRG estimates that the market area will add an additional 851 households (1.8 percent) annually over the next five years. Greater Fredericksburg’s household growth rate is projected to be 2.0 percent annually. Fifty-five percent of net new households added to the market over the past eight years were renters. Renters are projected to account for 37.3 percent of the market area household base by 2023. The market area is slightly less family-oriented than the region. Households with children comprise 40 percent of the market area households compared with 43 percent in Greater Fredericksburg. Conversely, the market area has more individuals living alone at 23 percent of households than the Greater Fredericksburg at 19 percent of households. Most market area renter households are relatively small—59 percent of the renter- occupied households within the market consist of one- and two-person households. The Jackson Village market area is a relatively affluent market within an affluent region. The market area’s households have an overall median income of $75,960 in 2018, 15 percent less than the regional median household income of $88,887. The median income among renters is more moderate at $51,961, with 35 percent of market’s renter households earning between $35,000 and $75,000.
4. Competitive Housing Analysis Reported vacancy rates are currently low across the various rental community types surveyed in the Jackson Village market, indicative of a strong demand for rental housing in general. The vacancy rate among stabilized communities in the market area is 2.7 percent, indicative of a healthy market. The stabilized vacancy rate among LIHTC communities is 2.1 percent. One-bedroom units average $1,094 for 776 square feet, which translates to an average one-bedroom net rent per square foot of $1.41. Two-bedroom rents average $1,200 for 1,066 square feet, amounting to an average rent per square foot of $1.13. Three-bedroom rents average $1,366 per month for 1,273 square feet with an average rent per square foot of $1.07. RPRG has identified seven multifamily rental developments which are reasonably likely to deliver units in the next three years. Three of these communities will include LIHTC units.
B. Derivation of Demand
1. Methodology In this section, RPRG presents a Derivation of Demand calculation which is intended to gauge whether sufficient demand from renter households would be available in the primary market area to absorb the number of units proposed for the subject project plus those units proposed at other pipeline rental communities that are expected to be brought on-line over a coming three-year period. The end result of this analysis can be either a positive number (which shows the extent to which available demand for rental units would exceed available supply), a negative number (which shows the extent to which available supply would exceed the number of units needed/demanded over the period in question), or very rarely zero (in which case rental supply and rental demand would be perfectly in balance in terms of number of units demanded versus number of units
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supplied). The three-year period in question for this analysis is the period spanning January 2018 through January 2021. We restrict the analysis to a three-year period in part to avoid artificially inflating demand by incorporating demand that would not be created until well after the subject project was introduced to the market and in part due to the difficulty in accurately predicting the likely supply of competing rental units beyond the three-year period.
RPRG’s Derivation of Demand calculation is a gross analysis, meaning that the calculation balances the demand for new rental housing units of all types (i.e. luxury market-rate, more affordable market-rate, tax credit, rent-subsidized, and age-restricted) versus the upcoming supply of rental housing units of all types. Considerations such as household incomes and the floor plan types and proposed rents for the subject and other pipeline projects are not factored into the Derivation of Demand; rather, we address the interplay of these factors within the Affordability Analysis and Penetration Analysis sections later in this report.
RPRG sums demand generated from three broad sources in order to arrive at ‘Total Demand for New Rental Units’ over the January 2018 to January 2021 period:
Projected Change in the Household Base. Recall that in the Growth Trends section of this report, we presented projections of household change within the primary market area over the 2010 to 2023 period. We factor in three years’ worth of the household change suggested by the annual rate of household growth or decline (2018 to 2019, 2019 to 2020, and 2020 to 2021). Note that net household change incorporates growth or decline stemming from both organic changes within existing households (i.e. new household formation as children move out of their parents’ homes, divorces, roommates electing to begin renting separately) and household migration into and out of the market area.
Need for Housing Stock Upgrades. Demand for new housing units within a primary market area is generated when the stock of available housing units ceases to meet the housing needs of households that wish to remain residents of that primary market. In such instances, the housing stock needs to be upgraded – either through the renovation of existing units or the construction of new units. That a particular housing unit has ceased to meet the housing needs of a market area’s households becomes evident in any number of ways, including: o Physical Removal or Demolition. Clearly, if a unit is demolished or otherwise physically removed from a market, it is no longer available to serve local households. A number of factors contribute to the removal of housing units. Housing units are occasionally removed from any given market through disasters such as fires and various types of weather phenomenon. While such disasters occur somewhat randomly, the decision whether to repair or demolish a unit is based on the economic value of the property. Thus, a unit being permanently lost in a disaster should be correlated with factors such as its age, structure type, and physical condition. Demolitions can also be instigated through the loss of economic value or in response to a situation where vacant land has become more valuable than the land plus its existing structure. Based on American Housing Survey data, researchers have analyzed Components of Inventory Change (CINCH). CINCH data indicated that renter-occupied or vacant units were far more likely to be demolished than owner-occupied units; among renter-occupied and vacant units, single-family detached units were more likely to be demolished than multifamily units. o Permanent Abandonment. Housing units can be technically removed from the stock available to serve households without being physically removed. This
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happens when a housing unit’s owner elects to permanently abandon the unit – due to obsolescence, overwhelming repair costs, or other factors – without going through the steps (and costs) of demolishing it. If a dilapidated unit was occupied up until the time of permanent abandonment, the former occupant represents a source of demand for other units in the area. o Overcrowding. As defined by the U.S. Census Bureau, a housing unit is classified as overcrowded if the household occupying the unit has more people than the housing unit has rooms. Particularly in markets with high housing costs, lower- income individuals and families are often driven into an overcrowded housing situation. Overcrowded households constitute pent-up demand for new housing units not typically captured in household growth projections; were two affordable units to become available, an overcrowded household would very likely split into two households and generate an additional net unit of housing demand. o Mismatch between Household Incomes and Housing Stock Quality. While permanent abandonment and overcrowding are two factors likely to lead to net new demand for affordable housing units, limited recent housing construction in a stable, long-established neighborhood can be an indicator of pent-up demand for new housing units serving middle- to upper-income households. Areas that exhibit this phenomenon are often downtown, inner city, or inner ring suburban locations that currently have – and have had for years – limited to no undeveloped land available for new housing construction/growth. When a neighborhood is stable in terms of overall household numbers but near the point of build-out for many years, many resident households develop a desire for a modern housing unit and the wherewithal to rent or purchase one, but have no stock of modern units from which to choose. Such households are ‘under-housed’ in that the quality of the housing stock in the area where they live (and wish to remain) does not match the type of housing they demand and could afford. Such pent-up demand is rarely captured in public projections of household growth and is difficult to translate to specific calculations. However, this pent-up demand is a very real factor driving demand for new housing units in stable, established residential neighborhoods. Competitive Multifamily Vacancy Rates. The final source of demand that factors into RPRG’s calculation of demand for rental units is the observed vacancy rate in the primary market area’s competitive rental market. RPRG assumes that a 5.0 percent vacancy rate is required to keep a rental market relatively elastic. Elasticity in this context means that an adequate number of quality housing units are vacant and available at any given time so that households seeking rental units can be accommodated and can have some choice among units. When the market vacancy rate is below 5.0 percent, additional units are needed to ensure an adequate number of available units from which to choose. When the market vacancy rate is above 5.0 percent, the market has the capacity to absorb some additional demand (whereby that amount of demand would not need to be met through the development of new units).
In considering competitive vacancy rates, we focus on multifamily units for a number of reasons. One of the primary reasons is that the scattered market in single-family homes, condominiums, and other properties is extremely fluid and cannot be relied upon to consistently serve renter households, since the inventory can convert to homeownership very quickly.
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2. Demand Analysis The steps in the derivation of demand for rental housing are detailed below (Table 33): Per the household trend information discussed previously, RPRG estimates that there are 44,647 households in the Jackson Village market area as of 2018, and we project that this number will increase to 48,902 by 2023. This growth rate is based on MWCOG Round 9.0 projections. Based on this estimate and projection, RPRG derived the number of households in the market area in 2021 via interpolation. Based on this estimate and projection, RPRG computed 47,200 households in the market in January 2021. The Jackson Village market area would thus gain 2,553 net new households during the three-year study period. The second broad source of demand in our analysis is labeled ‘Units Removed from the Rental Stock’. A number of factors contribute to the removal of housing units1. These factors include planned demolitions, disasters such as fires and various types of weather phenomenon, units being taken out of service due to being badly damaged or condemned, units lost to conversions or mergers of units, units converted to non-residential use, the moving of mobile homes, and a variety of other factors. Planned demolitions can also be instigated through the loss of economic value, unit obsolescence, or in response to a situation where vacant land has become more valuable than the land plus its existing structure. Based on American Housing Survey data, researchers have analyzed Components of Inventory Change (CINCH). CINCH data indicated that renter-occupied or vacant units were far more likely to be demolished than owner-occupied units. Based on two recent years of statistical observations (2011-2013), the average loss was computed at 0.27 percent of the total occupied housing stock per year. Applying the removal rate of 0.27 percent over the three years in question, RPRG estimates that approximately 394 housing units are likely to be lost. Combining removal with household changes, there will be a total demand for 2,947 new housing units in the market between January 2018 and January 2021. The proportion of renter-occupied housing units in the Jackson Village Market Area increased from 32.8 percent to 33.5 percent over the last decade. Based on Esri estimates and projections, we estimate that number has risen to 36.8 percent since 2010 and will continue to rise to 37.3 percent in 2023. Based on this data, 55.0 percent of net new households will be renters by 2023. We conservatively averaged the projected proportion of 55.0 percent with the current rentership rate of 36.8 percent to get 45.9 percent, creating a net new demand for rental housing of 1,353 units.
1 American Housing Survey, Components of Inventory Change 2011-2013; Prepared by Econometrica, Inc. for the U.S. Department of Housing & Urban Development’s Office of Policy Development & Research; April 2015.
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Table 33 Derivation of Net Demand, Jackson Village Demand Projected Change in Household Base Units January 2018 Households 44,647 January 2021 Households 47,200 Net Change in Households 2,553 Housing Removal Units Add: Units Removed from Housing Stock Stock Rate Removed 2018 Housing Stock 47,691 0.27% 129 2019 Housing Stock 48,601 0.27% 131 2020 Housing Stock 49,511 0.27% 134 Total Units Removed from Housing Stock 394
New Housing Demand 2,947 Average Percent Renter Households over Analysis Period 45.9% New Rental Housing Demand 1,353
Add: Multifamily Competitive Vacancy Inventory Vacant
Stabilized Multifamily Communities 6,020 160
Communities Under Lease Up 280 71 Total Competitive Inventory 6,300 231
Market Vacancy at 5% 315 Less: Current Vacant Units -231 Vacant Units Required to Reach 5% Market Vacancy 84
Total Demand for New Rental Units 1,437
Planned Additions to the Supply Total Units 95% Occupancy New Post (LIHTC) 102 97 Crossroads Station 187 178 Allure at Jefferson 328 312 Silver Collection at Celebrate 278 264 Hanover House 53 50 Valor Phase II (LIHTC) 120 114 Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village Phase I (LIHTC) 169 161
Subject 76 72 Total New Rental Supply 1313 1,247
Excess Demand for Rental Housing 189 Source: RPRG, Inc.
Typically, it is assumed that a 5.0 percent vacancy rate is required to keep a rental market relatively fluid. There must be some number of quality units vacant and available at any given time so that households seeking rental units can be accommodated and can have some choice among units. The aggregate vacancy rate for stabilized communities in this market area is 2.7 percent or 160 vacant units. We then added the 71 vacant units at the
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property currently undergoing initial lease up. The total 231 vacant units were subtracted from the 315 units required for five percent vacancy and the additional 84 units needed were added to demand.
Combining the effects of household trends, necessary unit replacement, and the preferred structural vacancy rate, there will be a total demand for 1,437 additional rental units in the market area over the three-year period. Total rental demand must be balanced against new rental stock likely to be added between January 2018 and January 2021. In addition to the subject’s 76 new rental units, we include seven other pipeline projects that we believe are reasonably likely to deliver over the three-year period. The eight near term pipeline projects (including the subject) combine for a total of 1,313 rental units, or 1,247 units assuming a structural vacancy rate of five percent. Subtracting the planned supply of 1,247 units from the net demand for 1,437 units over the next three years, we determine that the market area will have an overall excess demand of approximately 189 rental housing units.
3. Conclusions on Demand Despite the amount of new development in the pipeline, the market will still have an approximate unmet demand for 189 units. That said, there are a considerable number of long-term pipeline projects, some of which are moving actively moving through the planning process. In the coming months, on or several of those projects could attain the approvals needed, joining the near term pipeline.
C. Target Markets As a modern affordable community with a full amenity package and elevator-serviced units, we anticipate that the subject will attract many household types. Single person households will be attracted to the community’s one-bedroom affordable units which are relatively scarce in this market area where most of the LIHTC communities are limited to two- and three-bedroom units. Couples, both married and unmarried, would be attracted to the subject property. RPRG also expects the subject to be desirable for small families, including two parent, single parent and grandparent households. Finally, elevator-serviced units are relatively rare in this market and RPRG expects that mature households on fixed incomes will be attracted to the subject as they look for a low-maintenance lifestyle with single-floor, easily accessible living space. Recently retired individuals on limited incomes may also be attracted to these units given the relative lack of affordable senior housing in the area. Finally, retired couples with adult offspring living in owner occupied homes nearby typically seek out units in multifamily communities upon relocating to the area and those relocating from less affluent regions may meet the income restrictions.
D. Product Evaluation Considered in the context of the competitive environment and the proposed product, information on the relative position of Jackson Village follows: Structure Type: Elevator-serviced midrise units will differentiate the community from the standard garden-style product dominating the local market, and will give the subject a significant competitive advantage. Unit Distribution: The developer’s proposed unit distribution includes 23 percent one- bedroom units, 73 percent two-bedroom units, and four percent three-bedroom units. The
Page 60 Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II | Findings and Conclusions
market wide average unit mix includes 28 percent are one-bedroom units, 57 percent are two-bedroom units, and 15 percent are three-bedroom units. The subject’s mix skews more heavily towards two-bedroom units at the expense of three-bedroom units. This market includes several townhome communities, particularly those offering tax credit units, which leads to high proportion of larger floorplans. The subject’s ability to offer smaller floorplans at an affordable community will differentiate it from much of what is currently offered and allow it to meet the needs of an underserved population: smaller households seeking modern, affordable units. Given the target markets for the subject of single adults, couples, small families, and retirees/empty nesters, this unit mix is appropriate. Unit Size: As the subject’s majority unit type as proposed by the developer, two-bedroom units will average 1,088 square feet, comparable to the average two-bedroom unit size of 1,066 square feet. The subject’s one-bedroom units will be 790 square feet, three percent larger than the market average of 776 square feet. The subject’s three-bedroom units will be 1,402 square feet, ten percent larger than the market average of 1,273 square feet. These unit sizes will be attractive to renters. Unit Features: The proposed standard unit features will include a full slate of black kitchen appliances—range, refrigerator, dishwasher, built-in microwave, and garbage disposal. Kitchens will have laminate countertops. Flooring will be vinyl plank in the kitchen and living areas with vinyl sheet flooring in the bathrooms and carpet in the bedrooms. Units will have nine foot ceilings; oversized windows; mini blinds; raised panel wood doors; full- sized washer/dryer; lightweight concrete sound insulation between floors; large closets; low flow shower heads; Energy Star appliances and lighting; and high efficiency heating/cooling. These features are comparable or superior to most of the market rate communities with only the newest communities offering a higher grade of finishes, typically including granite countertops. The features package easily surpasses the oldest LIHTC communities which do not include washer/dryer or dishwashers; the newer LIHTC communities have a similar appliance package but only Valor offers residents a comparable or superior level of finishes. Community Amenities: All buildings will be elevator serviced with controlled access entry and interior trash & recycling disposal. Each building will have a lobby with designer furnishings, mail room and package lockers. Residents will have access to the common area amenities constructed as part of Phase I of Orchard Ridge, including a centralized clubhouse with lounge, kitchen, and continuous access fitness center. Outdoor amenities include swimming pool, picnic/grilling area, dog park, and bike storage. The subject's amenities are consistent with those provided at the newest market rate communities, aside from the absence of a business/computer center. This package not only exceeds what is available at most LIHTC communities, it is comparable to the newest market rate properties and will be well received by potential residents. Parking: The subject is offering free surface parking which is the standard in this market.
E. Price Position The proposed rents are generally mid to upper range with respect to cost when compared to existing communities. The client’s proposed floorplans are generally in the midrange for this market with the three-bedroom units being quite generous. Figure 9 illustrates the relative positions of the proposed rent structure in the current marketplace, including the client’s proposed unit sizes.
Page 61 Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II| Findings and Conclusions
The subject’s proposed rent of $1,075 is four percent less than the 60 percent AMI one- bedroom rent at the recently opened Valor ($1,121). The subject’s units are 12 percent smaller, however, the subject will offer elevator service and interior corridors whereas Valor is a four-story garden style community. The subject’s proposed rent of $1,300 is comparable to the two-bedroom 60 percent AMI rent at Valor ($1,299). The subject’s units are seven percent smaller, but the subject will have elevator service. The subject’s proposed rent of $1,450 is five percent less than Valor’s three-bedroom unit at 60 percent AMI ($1,531). The subject’s unit is also four percent larger, creating even more value for residents.
Figure 9 Price Position of Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II
Page 62 Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II| Findings and Conclusions
Page 63 Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II | Findings and Conclusions
F. Affordability – Capture and Penetration Analysis
1. Methodology Following our estimate of the depth of demand for net new rental units in the market area, we next test whether sufficient income-qualified households would be available to support the specific units at the subject property and properties in the same broad segment of the rental market in terms of pricing. This analysis is conducted independently of the Derivation of Demand as units at the subject property are likely to be filled by a combination of new households (either moving to or created within the market area) and existing households moving within the market area. The total demand—comprised of the net or incremental demand and the demand from existing households—is the relevant frame of reference for the analysis. The affordability analysis tests the percent of income-qualified households in the market area that the subject community must capture in order to achieve full occupancy. The penetration analysis tests the percent of income-qualified households in the market area that the subject community and comparable competitive communities combined must capture in order to achieve full occupancy. The combination of the Derivation of Demand, Affordability and Penetration Analyses determines if the primary market area can support additional rental units and if sufficient households exist in the target income range to support the proposed units.
Using 2019 as our target year for this analysis, RPRG calculated the income distribution for both total households and renter households based on the relationship between owner and renter household incomes by income cohort from the 2012-2016 American Community Survey with estimates and projected income growth since the Census (Table 34). This is when the majority of the subject’s units are likely to be leased.
A particular housing unit is typically said to be affordable to households that would be expending a certain percentage of their annual income or less on the expenses related to living in that unit. In the case of rental units, these expenses are generally of two types—monthly contract rents paid to landlords and payment of utility bills for which the tenant is responsible. The sum of the contract rent and utility bills is referred to as a household’s ‘gross rent burden’. For the Affordability and Penetration Analyses, RPRG employs a 35 percent gross rent burden. The 35 percent rent burden is the rent burden mandated by VHDA for use in evaluating proposed general occupancy LIHTC communities. Rent burdens of 35 percent are also typically used in underwriting multifamily rental communities in the Mid-Atlantic region, particularly communities with rents targeting low- and moderate-income households in areas with high housing costs.
Page 64 Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II | Findings and Conclusions
Table 34 2019 Total and Renter Income Distribution Jackson Village Renter Total Households Market Area Households 2019 Income # % # % less than $15,000 3,568 7.8% 2,043 12.2% $15,000 $24,999 3,090 6.8% 1,769 10.5% $25,000 $34,999 2,944 6.5% 1,660 9.9% $35,000 $49,999 5,129 11.3% 2,642 15.8% $50,000 $74,999 7,399 16.3% 3,087 18.4% $75,000 $99,999 6,574 14.4% 2,385 14.2% $100,000 $149,999 9,454 20.8% 2,362 14.1% $150,000 Over 7,339 16.1% 825 4.9% Total 45,498 100% 16,775 100%
Median Income $77,350 $52,205 Source: American Community Survey 2012-2016 Projections, RPRG, Inc.
2. Affordability Analysis The affordability analysis is presented in Table 35. The steps of the analysis are demonstrated for the subject’s one-bedroom units. This analysis can be similarly applied to the two- and three- bedroom units. The steps are as follows: The one-bedroom units have a gross rent burden of $1,168 ($1,075 contract rent plus $93 utility allowance for tenant-paid utilities). By applying a 35 percent rent burden to this gross rent, we determined that these one-bedroom units would be affordable to households earning at least $40,046 per year. The projected number of market area households earning at least this amount in 2019 is 34,170. On the assumption of 1.5 persons per bedroom and an income ceiling of 60 percent AMI, the maximum income for households renting a one-bedroom unit at the subject is $49,680. According to the interpolated income distribution for 2019, there will be 30,876 households in the market area with incomes exceeding this upper income limit. Subtracting the 30,876 households with incomes above the maximum income limit from the 34,170 households who have the minimum income necessary to rent this unit, RPRG calculates that 3,294 households in the market area would be income-qualified for the subject’s one-bedroom units. The subject would have to capture 0.5 percent of these households to fill these 18 units. Using the same methodology on the interpolated income distribution for renter households in 2019, RPRG estimates there would be 1,697 renter households in the market area in 2019 that would be income-qualified for these one-bedroom units. The subject would need to capture 1.1 percent of these renter households in order to fill all 18 units. The same methodology was applied to test the affordability of the subject’s two- and three- bedroom units and for the project as a whole. Overall, the subject would need to capture 0.8 percent of all income qualified households in the market area and 1.9 percent of all income qualified renter households in order to lease all 76 units.
Page 65 Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II | Findings and Conclusions
Table 35 Affordability Analysis
60% Units One Bedroom Units Two Bedroom Units Three Bedroom Units No Data
Min. Max. Min. Max. Min. Max. Min. Max. Number of Units 18 55 3 0 Net Rent $1,075 $1,300 $1,450 -- Gross Rent $1,168 $1,418 $1,585 -- % Income for Shelter 35% 35% 35% 35% Income Range (Min, Max) $40,046 $49,680 $48,617 $59,580 $54,343 $68,850 na na Total Households Range of Qualified Hhlds 34,170 30,876 31,239 27,931 29,481 25,187 0 0 # Qualified Households 3,294 3,308 4,294 0 Total HH Capture Rate 0.5% 1.7% 0.1% 0
Renter Households Range of Qualified Hhlds 10,413 8,716 8,903 7,477 8,124 6,332 0 0 # Qualified Hhlds 1,697 1,427 1,792 0 Renter HH Capture Rate 1.1% 3.9% 0.2% na
All Households = 45,498 Renter Households = 16,775 Income # Units # Qualified # Qualified Capture Target Band of Qualified Hhlds Capture Rate Band of Qualified Hhlds HHs HHs Rate Income $40,046 $68,850 $40,046 $68,850 Total Units 76 Households 34,170 25,187 8,983 0.8% 10,413 6,332 4,081 1.9% Source: Income Projections, RPRG, Inc.
3. Penetration Analysis In order to evaluate the capacity for the Jackson Village market area to serve the inventory of all of the existing and pipeline units comparable to the subject, we conducted a 2019 penetration analysis, also assuming a 35 percent rent burden (Table 36).
RPRG included all of the existing 60 percent AMI units and the market rate units where the two- bedroom floorplan was priced less than the subject ($1,300). The pipeline projects likely to deliver in the next three years which have 60 percent AMI LIHTC units include Valor Phase II, Orchard Ridge Phase I, and New Post; the other pipeline projects will be market rate and presumably priced well above the $1,300 price point used for this analysis. The rents presented in Table 36 are the lowest rent at any of the communities used in the analysis (two-bedroom 60 percent AMI unit at Heritage Park).
This analysis indicates that all of the directly competitive properties would need to capture 70.2 percent of income-qualified renters in order to fill all comparable units in the market area in 2019.
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Table 36 Penetration Analysis
Competitive Communities Competitive Communities Units Planned Communities Units Riverside Manor 60%** 143 New Post - 60% AMI 50 Merchant's Sq Residences 66 Valor II - 60% AMI 120 Seasons at Celebrate Virginia 482 Orchard Ridge at Jackson Brittany Commons 576 Village Phase I - 60% AMI 169 Breezewood 300 Kilburn Crossing 220 Residences at Belmont 300 Spotsylvania Courthouse Village 26 Timber Ridge TH 60%** 147 Crestview 60%** 180 Colonial Village at Greenbrier 247 Greens of Salem Run 60%** 182 River Woods of Fredericksburg 187 Townsend Square 60%** 200 Windover Villas 60%** 45 Salem Fields TH 60%** 100 Salem Run I & II 60%** 54 Commons at Cowan Blvd 254 Wicklow Sq & Weston Circle 60%** 246 Forest Village 60%** 71 Heritage Park I & II - Market 5 Subtotal 339 Heritage Park I & II 60%** 74 Subject Property Units Subtotal 4,105 60% AMI Units 78
Subtotal 78 Grand Total of Competitive Supply 4,522
Minimum Income Maximum Income 60% Units OneBedroom Unit ThreeBedroomUnit Net Rent $670 Gross Rent $763 % Income for Shelter 35% Income Range (Min, Max) $26,160 $68,850 Qualified Renter HHs 12,770 6,332
All Renter Households = 16,775 Band of Qualified Households Qualified HHs Penetration Rate Income $26,160 $68,850 Households 12,770 6,332 6,438 70.2% (**) LIHTC Unit Source: 2010 U.S. Census,Esri, Estimates, RPRG, Inc.
4. Conclusions on Affordability and Penetration RPRG judges that there are sufficient numbers of income-qualified renter households in the market area who could afford the subject at the proposed rents. The overall renter capture rate is very achievable at 1.9 percent.
RPRG considers the calculated penetration rates to be reasonable in the context of the Jackson Village market area. The penetration rates suggest that there is adequate income-qualified demand to support the subject project, the existing 60 percent AMI units and comparable market rate units, as well as 60 percent AMI pipeline units. This analysis is somewhat conservative in that it includes market rate communities where management can theoretically raise the rents at any time to exceed the price point at which they compete with the subject.
Page 67 Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II | Findings and Conclusions
G. VHDA Demand Analysis The Virginia Housing Development Authority (VHDA) mandates a particular demand methodology in evaluating applications for Low-Income Housing Tax Credits. VHDA opts for a need-driven demand methodology which factors the topics of cost-burdened renters and substandard rental housing into the demand equation. In this section, RPRG calculates demand according to the VHDA methodology for Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II. VHDA’s demand methodology for general occupancy LIHTC projects such as the subject accounts for the following components of potential need/demand: Household Growth or Decline. The household trend required by VHDA is the net increase or decrease in the number of income-qualified renter households in the primary market area between a base year of 2017 and a target year of 2020. Cost Burdened Renters. VHDA’s second component of demand is cost burdened renters, a designation which is defined as those renter households paying more than 35 percent of household income for housing costs. RPRG uses the 2012-2016 ACS data on cost-burdened renter households presented earlier in Table 19 to estimate the percentage and number of income-qualified renters for the subject project that will be cost-burdened as of 2018, We conservatively use a rent burden of 40 percent in this analysis; 36.0 percent of local households meet this criteria. Renter Households in Substandard Housing. VHDA’s third component of demand accounts for income-qualified renter households living in substandard units, defined as overcrowded units (having 1.01 or more persons per room) and/or units lacking complete plumbing facilities. According to the 2012-2016 ACS, the percentage of renter households in the primary market area that lived in substandard conditions was 3.3 percent. Table 37 outlines the detailed VHDA demand calculations for the subject that stem from the relevant demand components. Total demand available for the 76-unit project is expected to include 152 net new renter households, 1,438 cost-burdened households, and 130 households currently residing in substandard housing. The calculation thus yields a total demand for 1,720 additional units of rental housing serving the targeted 60 percent of AMI income band. Comparable units that are presently available or that would likely be available by 2020 constitute supply that must be subtracted from total VHDA demand to arrive at VHDA net demand. Based on the vacancy rates for the rental communities in our survey, there are 32 vacancies in the 60 percent AMI LIHTC one-, two-, and three-bedroom rental units. The pipeline consists of 339 LIHTC units. Subtracting the vacant existing and pipeline units, VHDA net demand totals 1,349 units.
Given net demand of 1,349 units, the 76-unit subject would need to capture 5.6 percent of income- qualified renter households per VHDA’s demand methodology.
Page 68 Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II | Findings and Conclusions
Table 37 VHDA Demand by Overall Income Targeting
Income Target 60% Units Project Total Minimum Income Limit $40,046 $40,046 Maximum Income Limit $68,850 $68,850 (A) Renter Income Qualification Percentage 24.3% 24.3% Demand from New Renter Households - Calculation (C-B)*F*A 152 152 + Demand from Rent Overburdened HHs - Calculation: B*E*F*A 1,438 1,438 + Demand from Substandard Housing - Calculation B*D*F*A 130 130 Total Income Qualified Renter Demand 1,720 1,720 Less: Comparable Vacant Units 32 32 Less: Comparable Pipeline Units 339 339 Net Demand 1,349 1,349 Subject Proposed Units 76 76 Capture Rate 5.6% 5.6%
Estimated Absorption Period 6-7 months 6-7 months
Demand Calculation Inputs A). % of Renter Hhlds with Qualifying Income see above B). 2017 Households 44,647 C). 2020 Households 46,349 D). Substandard Housing (% of Rental Stock) 3.3% E). Rent Overburdened (% of Renter Hhlds at >40%) 36.0% F). Renter Percentage (% of all 2018 HHlds) 36.8%
Conclusions on VHDA Demand
RPRG considers the key captures rates to be within a reasonable range for all unit types. The subject project’s overall capture rate of 5.6 percent is reasonable and achievable in this market area.
H. Absorption Estimate While most of the recent absorption experience has been market rate communities, two new general occupancy LIHTC communities have opened in the market area since 2002. The 72-unit Overlook Terrace opened February in 2016 and stabilized in August 2016 for an average absorption of 12 units per month. Overlook offers two- and three-bedroom floorplans and all units are restricted to households at or below 50 percent AMI. Valor Apartments opened in March 2017 with 128 LIHTC units restricted to households at or below 60 percent AMI. The property stabilized in November for an average absorption pace of 15 units per month. Meanwhile, units at the recently opened market rate communities have been absorbed rapidly as the number of households in the area continues to grow and vacancies in the market area remain low. We estimate that Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II will lease units at an average pace of: 10-12 units per month. The location of the subject site will offer residents good access to retail and services as well as the regional highway system. Combining these conveniences with the subject’s affordable rents, will make it very competitive in this market. That said, we temper our absorption estimate to reflect the reality that the LIHTC subject will have to attract renters within a very specific income range. This absorption estimate accounts for the fact that affordable properties can be slower to lease up because applicants must fit into the appropriate income bands. Assuming this pace and a structural vacancy rate of five percent, the 76-unit Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II would be 95 percent leased within approximately six to seven months of opening.
Page 69 Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II | Findings and Conclusions
I. Impact on Existing Market RPRG does not anticipate that the subject would have an adverse impact on the existing rental market. The present market indicators point to a healthy market – stabilized vacancy is well below five percent. The area is projected to continue to add new households at a steady rate, which will only continue to create demand for housing of all types. Moreover, we believe that the subject will provide a value-added, rental community that will assist in meeting the market’s demand for affordable high quality rental options.
We hope you find this analysis helpful in your decision making process.
______Nicole D. Mathison Robert M. Lefenfeld Senior Analyst Founding Principal
Page 70 Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II | Appendix 1 Underlying Assumptions and Limiting Conditions
9. APPENDIX 1 UNDERLYING ASSUMPTIONS AND LIMITING CONDITIONS
In conducting the analysis, we will make the following assumptions, except as otherwise noted in our report:
1. There are no zoning, building, safety, environmental or other federal, state or local laws, regulations or codes which would prohibit or impair the development, marketing or operation of the subject project in the manner contemplated in our report, and the subject project will be developed, marketed and operated in compliance with all applicable laws, regulations and codes.
2. No material changes will occur in (a) any federal, state or local law, regulation or code (including, without limitation, the Internal Revenue Code) affecting the subject project, or (b) any federal, state or local grant, financing or other program which is to be utilized in connection with the subject project.
3. The local, national and international economies will not deteriorate, and there will be no significant changes in interest rates or in rates of inflation or deflation.
4. The subject project will be served by adequate transportation, utilities and governmental facilities.
5. The subject project will not be subjected to any war, energy crisis, embargo, strike, earthquake, flood, fire or other casualty or act of God.
6. The subject project will be on the market at the time and with the product anticipated in our report, and at the price position specified in our report.
7. The subject project will be developed, marketed and operated in a highly professional manner.
8. No projects will be developed which will be in competition with the subject project, except as set forth in our report.
9. There are no existing judgments nor any pending or threatened litigation, which could hinder the development, marketing or operation of the subject project.
Page 71 Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II | Appendix 1 Underlying Assumptions and Limiting Conditions
The analysis will be subject to the following limiting conditions, except as otherwise noted in our report:
1. The analysis contained in this report necessarily incorporates numerous estimates and assumptions with respect to property performance, general and local business and economic conditions, the absence of material changes in the competitive environment and other matters. Some estimates or assumptions, however, inevitably will not materialize, and unanticipated events and circumstances may occur; therefore, actual results achieved during the period covered by our analysis will vary from our estimates and the variations may be material.
2. Our absorption estimates are based on the assumption that the product recommendations set forth in our report will be followed without material deviation.
3. All estimates of future dollar amounts are based on the current value of the dollar, without any allowance for inflation or deflation.
4. We have no responsibility for considerations requiring expertise in other fields. Such considerations include, but are not limited to, legal matters, environmental matters, architectural matters, geologic considerations, such as soils and seismic stability, and civil, mechanical, electrical, structural and other engineering matters.
5. Information, estimates and opinions contained in or referred to in our report, which we have obtained from sources outside of this office, are assumed to be reliable and have not been independently verified.
6. The conclusions and recommendations in our report are subject to these Underlying Assumptions and Limiting Conditions and to any additional assumptions or conditions set forth in the body of our report.
Page 72 Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II | Appendix 2 NCHMA Checklist
10. APPENDIX 2 NCHMA CHECKLIST
Introduction: Members of the National Council of Housing Market Analysts provides a checklist referencing all components of their market study. This checklist is intended to assist readers on the location and content of issues relevant to the evaluation and analysis of market studies. The page number of each component referenced is noted in the right column. In cases where the item is not relevant, the author has indicated "N/A" or not applicable. Where a conflict with or variation from client standards or client requirements exists, the author has indicated a "V" (variation) with a comment explaining the conflict. More detailed notations or explanations are also acceptable.
Component (*First occurring page is noted) *Page(s) Executive Summary 1. Executive Summary 1 Project Summary 2. Project description with exact number of bedrooms and baths 1, 3 proposed, income limitation, proposed rents, and utility allowances 3. Utilities (and utility sources) included in rent 4 4. Project design description 3 5. Unit and project amenities; parking 3 6. Public programs included 3 7. Target population description 60 8. Date of construction/preliminary completion 5 9. If rehabilitation, existing unit breakdown and rents N/A 10. Reference to review/status of project plans 4 Location and Market Area 11. Market area/secondary market area description 25 12. Concise description of the site and adjacent parcels 9 13. Description of site characteristics 6 14. Site photos/maps 9 15. Map of community services 15 16. Visibility and accessibility evaluation 13 17. Crime information 12 Employment and Economy 18. Employment by industry 20 19. Historical unemployment rate 19
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20. Area major employers 23 21. Five-year employment growth 19 22. Typical wages by occupation 23 23. Discussion of commuting patterns of area workers 19 Demographic Characteristics 24. Population and household estimates and projections 27 25. Area building permits 28 26. Distribution of income 32 27. Households by tenure 31 Competitive Environment 28. Comparable property profiles 78 29. Map of comparable properties 37 30. Comparable property photos 78 31. Existing rental housing evaluation 36 32. Comparable property discussion 36 33. Area vacancy rates, including rates for tax credit and government- 38 subsidized communities 34. Comparison of subject property to comparable properties 60 35. Availability of Housing Choice Vouchers N/A 36. Identification of waiting lists Profiles 37. Description of overall rental market including share of market-rate 40 and affordable properties 38. List of existing LIHTC properties 38 39. Discussion of future changes in housing stock 49 40. Discussion of availability and cost of other affordable housing options, N/A including homeownership 41. Tax credit and other planned or under construction rental 49 communities in market area Analysis/Conclusions 42. Calculation and analysis of Capture Rate 66 43. Calculation and analysis of Penetration Rate 67 44. Evaluation of proposed rent levels 61 45. Derivation of Achievable Market Rent and Market Advantage 44 46. Derivation of Achievable Restricted Rent 48 47. Precise statement of key conclusions 69
Page 74 Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II | Appendix 2 NCHMA Checklist
48. Market strengths and weaknesses impacting project 60 49. Recommendation and/or modification to project description 60, if applicable 50. Discussion of subject property’s impact on existing housing 69 51. Absorption projection with issues impacting performance 69 52. Discussion of risks or other mitigating circumstances impacting 60, if project applicable 53. Interviews with area housing stakeholders 43 Certifications 54. Preparation date of report Cover 55. Date of field work 1 56. Certifications 76 57. Statement of qualifications 77 58. Sources of data not otherwise identified N/A 59. Utility allowance schedule 5
Page 75 Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II | VHDA Certification
11. VHDA CERTIFICATION
I affirm the following:
1. I have made a physical inspection of the site and market area.
2. The appropriate information has been used in the comprehensive evaluation of the need and demand for the proposed rental units.
3. To the best of my knowledge the market can support the demand shown in this study. I understand that any misrepresentation in this statement may result in the denial of participation in the Low Income Housing Tax Credit Program in Virginia as administered by VHDA.
4. Neither I nor anyone at my firm has any interest in the proposed development or a relationship with the ownership entity.
5. Neither I nor anyone at my firm nor anyone acting on behalf of my firm in connection with the preparation of this report has communicated to others that my firm is representing VHDA or in any way acting for, at the request of, or on behalf of VHDA.
6. Compensation for my services is not contingent upon this development receiving a LIHTC reservation or allocation.
______1/11/2018____
Market Analyst Date
Page 76 Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II | Appendix 3 Analyst Resumes
12. APPENDIX 3 ANALYST RESUMES
Page 77 ROBERT M. LEFENFELD Founding Principal
Mr. Lefenfeld, Founding Principal of the firm, has over 30 years of experience in the field of residential market research. Before founding Real Property Research Group in 2001, Bob served as an officer of research subsidiaries of Reznick Fedder & Silverman and Legg Mason. Between 1998 and 2001, Bob was Managing Director of RF&S Realty Advisors, conducting residential market studies throughout the United States. From 1987 to 1995, Bob served as Senior Vice President of Legg Mason Realty Group, managing the firm’s consulting practice and serving as publisher of a Mid-Atlantic residential data service, Housing Market Profiles. Prior to joining Legg Mason, Bob spent ten years with the Baltimore Metropolitan Council as a housing economist. Bob also served as Research Director for Regency Homes between 1995 and 1998, analyzing markets throughout the Eastern United States and evaluating the company’s active building operation.
Bob provides input and guidance for the completion of the firm’s research and analysis products. He combines extensive experience in the real estate industry with capabilities in database development and information management. Over the years, he has developed a series of information products and proprietary databases serving real estate professionals. Bob has lectured and written extensively about residential real estate market analysis. Bob has created and teaches the market study module for the MBA HUD Underwriting course and has served as an adjunct professor for the Graduate Programs in Real Estate Development, School of Architecture, Planning and Preservation, University of Maryland College Park. He is the past National Chair of the National Council of Housing Market Analysts (NCHMA) and currently chairs its FHA Committee.
Areas of Concentration: Strategic Assessments: Mr. Lefenfeld has conducted numerous corridor analyses throughout the United States to assist building and real estate companies in evaluating development opportunities. Such analyses document demographic, economic, competitive, and proposed development activity by submarket and discuss opportunities for development. Feasibility Analysis: Mr. Lefenfeld has conducted feasibility studies for various types of residential developments for builders and developers. Subjects for these analyses have included for-sale single-family and townhouse developments, age-restricted rental and for- sale developments, large multi-product PUDs, urban renovations and continuing care facilities for the elderly. Information Products: Bob has developed a series of proprietary databases to assist clients in monitoring growth trends. Subjects of these databases have included for sale housing, pipeline information, and rental communities.
Education: Master of Urban and Regional Planning; The George Washington University. Bachelor of Arts - Political Science; Northeastern University. NICOLE D. MATHISON Senior Analyst
Nicole Mathison joined RPRG in 2013 where she focuses on rental market studies and community and economic analyses for development projects. She has also completed countywide rental assessments in Maryland for the Maryland Department of Housing and Community Development. Nicole’s background is in research and nonprofit administration in the fields of public health and higher education. Nicole earned a Master of Urban and Regional Planning degree at Virginia Tech. She obtained a specialization in Land Use Planning and completed coursework in Geographic Information Systems (GIS). As a student she conducted research on downtown revitalization, adaptive reuse of vacant big box stores, and the value of public art.
Areas of Concentration:
Low Income Housing Tax Credits: Nicole prepares rental market studies for submission to lenders and state agencies for nine percent and four percent Low Income Housing Tax Credit allocations. Studies include analysis of new construction as well as the feasibility of renovating existing family rental communities.
FHA Section 221(d)(4): Nicole prepares comprehensive feasibility studies for submission to HUD regional offices as part of a lender’s application for Section 221(d)(4) mortgage insurance. These reports strictly adhere to HUD’s Multifamily Accelerated Processing (MAP) guidelines for market studies.
Mixed-Use and Mixed-Income Development: Nicole has studied mixed-use projects with integrated uses such as market-rate and affordable rental housing, for-sale housing, and retail space.
Education:
Master of Urban & Regional Planning – Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA Bachelor of Science, Food Science – North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC
Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II | Appendix 4 Market Area Rental Community Profiles
13. APPENDIX 4 MARKET AREA RENTAL COMMUNITY PROFILES
Page 78 RealPropertyResearch Group Abberly at Southpoint Multifamily Community Profile 10500 Southpoint Pkwy CommunityType: Market Rate - General Fredericksburg,VA 22407 Structure Type: 4-Story Mid Rise 280 Units 25.4% Vacant (71 units vacant) as of 12/22/2017 Opened in 2016
Unit Mix & Effective Rent (1) Community Amenities Bedroom Avg Rent SqFt%Total Avg $/SqFtAvg Clubhouse: Pool-Outdr: Eff ------Comm Rm: Basketball: One 42.1% $1,342 861 $1.56 Centrl Lndry: Tennis: One/Den ------Elevator: Volleyball: Two 55.7% $1,595 1,297 $1.23 Fitness: CarWash: Two/Den ------Hot Tub: BusinessCtr: Three 2.1% $1,998 1,496 $1.34 Sauna: ComputerCtr: Four+ ------Playground: Features Standard: Dishwasher; Microwave; In Unit Laundry (Full Size); Carpet / Vinyl/Linoleum
Select Units: --
Optional($): --
Security: Gated Entry
Parking 1: Free Surface Parking Parking 2: Detached Garage Fee: -- Fee: $150
Property Manager: HHHunt Owner: HHHunt
Comments Game room w/billiards, conference room, yoga studio. Opened Dec 2, 2016. Valet trash removal, car charging stations. Wood look vinyl flooring. Black appliances, granite counters. 13 detached garages. People like the elevators, and are moving from everywhere, job relocation, some work at Quantico. 1 bedroom units are very popular.
Floorplans (Published Rents as of 12/22/2017) (2) Historic Vacancy & Eff. Rent (1) DescriptionFeature BRsBath#Units Rent SqFtRent/SF Program Date %Vac 1BR$ 2BR$ 3BR$ .Calso / Mid Rise - El-- 1 1.5Charleston $1,490 1,199 Market$1.242 25.4%12/22/17* $1,342 $1,595 $1,998 Ahil / Mid Rise - Elev-- 1 1Ashville $1,283 807 Market$1.5956 32.5%8/24/17* $1,321 $1,589 $2,008 Clmi / Mid Rise - Ele-- 1 1Columbia $1,322 813 Market$1.634 62.5%3/24/17* $1,301 $1,549 $1,864 AlnaBriga / Mid-- 1 1Atlanta/Birmingham $1,345 907 Market$1.4856 76.8%1/27/17* $1,282 $1,560 $1,916 CalteNsvle/ Mid-- 2 2Charlotte/Nashville $1,523 1,101 Market$1.387 * Indicates initial lease-up. NwOrleans / Mid Rise --- 2 2New $1,569 1,194 Market$1.3156 Nrok/ Mid Rise - Eleva-- 2 2Norfolk $1,547 1,279 Market$1.2132 .Rlih/ Mid Rise - Eleva-- 2 2.5Raleigh $1,587 1,327 Market$1.2021 Rcmn / Mid Rise - El-- 2 2Richmond $1,652 1,454 Market$1.1422 Adjustments to Rent Svna / Mid Rise - Ele-- 2 2Savannah $1,877 1,496 Market$1.2518 Incentives: 2BR: $500 off 1 mo; 2BR/2.5BA: $1000 off Tsaos / Mid Rise - E-- 3 2Tuscaloosa $1,963 1,496 Market$1.316 1 mo Utilities in Rent: Heat Fuel: Electric Heat: Cooking: Wtr/Swr: Hot Water: Electricity: Trash:
VA177-024299Abberly at Southpoint © 2018 Real Property Research Group, Inc. (1) Effective Rent is Published Rent, net of concessions and assumes that water, sewer and trash is included in rent (2) Published Rent is rent as quoted by management. RealPropertyResearch Group Apts at Cobblestone Square Multifamily Community Profile 627 Cobblestone Circle CommunityType: Market Rate - General Fredericksburg,VA 22401 Structure Type: 4-Story Mid Rise 314 Units 1.0% Vacant (3 units vacant) as of 12/22/2017 Opened in 2011
Unit Mix & Effective Rent (1) Community Amenities Bedroom Avg Rent SqFt%Total Avg $/SqFtAvg Clubhouse: Pool-Outdr: Eff ------Comm Rm: Basketball: One 36.9% $1,277 672 $1.90 Centrl Lndry: Tennis: One/Den 0.6% $1,448 770 $1.88 Elevator: Volleyball: Two 54.8% $1,419 1,023 $1.39 Fitness: CarWash: Two/Den 7.6% $1,853 1,300 $1.43 Hot Tub: BusinessCtr: Three ------Sauna: ComputerCtr: Four+ ------Playground: Features Standard: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Ice Maker; In Unit Laundry (Full Size); Central A/C; Patio/Balcony; Carpet / Ceramic
Select Units: HighCeilings
Optional($): --
Security: Intercom; Keyed Bldg Entry
Parking 1: Free Surface Parking Parking 2: Detached Garage Fee: -- Fee: $145
Property Manager: MAA Owner: --
Comments Standard finishes include stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, and 42" cabinetry. BBQ/picnic areas. Game room with billards, recycling , pet park. Select units feature a separate shower and soaking tub. Opened 11/29/2011; Const. complete 7/12. Leased up Sept 2012. Located 2 blocks from VRE and Amtrak station. Amenity Fee: $ 250 Floorplans (Published Rents as of 12/22/2017) (2) Historic Vacancy & Eff. Rent (1) DescriptionFeature BRsBath#Units Rent SqFtRent/SF Program Date %Vac 1BR$ 2BR$ 3BR$ Aei / Mid Rise - Elevat-- 1 1Amelia $1,173 590 Market$1.991 1.0%12/22/17 $1,280 $1,472 -- Lbry/ Mid Rise - Elevat-- 1 1Liberty $1,226 635 Market$1.9322 1.3%8/24/17 $1,369 $1,641 -- .Spi/m/ Mid Rise - ElLoft 1 1.5Sophia/Sm $1,248 645 Market$1.938 1.9%3/28/17 $1,352 $1,612 -- Wlim/ Mid Rise - Eleva-- 1 1William $1,251 660 Market$1.8944 1.3%2/2/17 $1,279 $1,502 -- Crln / Mid Rise - Elev-- 1 1Caroline $1,248 680 Market$1.8432 * Indicates initial lease-up. .Spi/g/ Mid Rise - ElDen 1 1.5Sophia/Lg $1,423 770 Market$1.852 Knoe/ Mid Rise - Ele-- 1 1Kenmore $1,353 830 Market$1.638 Pla / Mid Rise - Eleva-- 1 1Pelham $1,358 835 Market$1.631 Hnvr/ Mid Rise - Elev-- 2 2Hanover $1,381 1,013 Market$1.36116 Adjustments to Rent Calte/ Mid Rise - Ele-- 2 2Charlotte $1,461 1,105 Market$1.3240 Incentives: Daily Pricing Wnhse / Mid Rise - EDen 2 2Winchester $1,823 1,300 Market$1.4024 Cals/ Mid Rise - Elev-- 2 2Charles $1,268 895 Market$1.4216 Utilities in Rent: Heat Fuel: Electric Heat: Cooking: Wtr/Swr: Hot Water: Electricity: Trash:
VA630-016332Apts at Cobblestone Square © 2018 Real Property Research Group, Inc. (1) Effective Rent is Published Rent, net of concessions and assumes that water, sewer and trash is included in rent (2) Published Rent is rent as quoted by management. RealPropertyResearch Group Breezewood Multifamily Community Profile 10502 Rising Ridge Road CommunityType: Market Rate - General Fredericksburg,VA 22407 Map Ref: SP 15-C02 Structure Type: 2-Story Garden 300 Units 2.7% Vacant (8 units vacant) as of 1/16/2018 Opened in 1987
Unit Mix & Effective Rent (1) Community Amenities Bedroom Avg Rent SqFt%Total Avg $/SqFtAvg Clubhouse: Pool-Outdr: Eff ------Comm Rm: Basketball: One 46.7% $1,032 646 $1.60 Centrl Lndry: Tennis: One/Den ------Elevator: Volleyball: Two 53.3% $1,259 990 $1.27 Fitness: CarWash: Two/Den ------Hot Tub: BusinessCtr: Three ------Sauna: ComputerCtr: Four+ ------Playground: Features Standard: Dishwasher; Disposal; Ceiling Fan; In Unit Laundry (Full Size); Central A/C; Patio/Balcony; Carpet / Vinyl/Linoleum
Select Units: Fireplace
Optional($): --
Security: Gated Entry; Intercom
Parking 1: Free Surface Parking Parking 2: Fee for Reserved Fee: -- Fee: --
Property Manager: MGM Enterprises Owner: --
Comments All units have a patio. 2 & 3 story buildings. Grill/picnic area, ss app, handicap accessible. Rents & vacancy from website.
Floorplans (Published Rents as of 1/16/2018) (2) Historic Vacancy & Eff. Rent (1) DescriptionFeature BRsBath#Units Rent SqFtRent/SF Program Date %Vac 1BR$ 2BR$ 3BR$ -- 1 1Garden $1,075 585 Market$1.8460 2.7%1/16/18 $1,032 $1,259 -- -- 1 1Garden $999 692 Market$1.4480 3.7%8/24/17 $1,159 $1,271 -- -- 2 2Garden $1,304 1,026 Market$1.2780 1.0%3/31/17 $1,210 $1,337 -- -- 2 2Garden $1,213 953 Market$1.2780 6.3%2/16/17 $1,004 $1,308 --
Adjustments to Rent Incentives: Daily Pricing
Utilities in Rent: Heat Fuel: Electric Heat: Cooking: Wtr/Swr: Hot Water: Electricity: Trash:
VA177-002102Breezewood © 2018 Real Property Research Group, Inc. (1) Effective Rent is Published Rent, net of concessions and assumes that water, sewer and trash is included in rent (2) Published Rent is rent as quoted by management. RealPropertyResearch Group Brittany Commons Multifamily Community Profile 10122 Kensal Way CommunityType: Market Rate - General Spotsylvania,VA 22553 Map Ref: SP 15-B03 Structure Type: 3-Story Garden 576 Units 4.3% Vacant (25 units vacant) as of 12/27/2017 Last Major Rehab in 2002 Opened in 1998
Unit Mix & Effective Rent (1) Community Amenities Bedroom Avg Rent SqFt%Total Avg $/SqFtAvg Clubhouse: Pool-Outdr: Eff ------Comm Rm: Basketball: One 10.2% $1,102 782 $1.41 Centrl Lndry: Tennis: One/Den 3.1% $1,227 852 $1.44 Elevator: Volleyball: Two 60.2% $1,259 1,080 $1.17 Fitness: CarWash: Two/Den 7.3% $1,299 1,094 $1.19 Hot Tub: BusinessCtr: Three 19.1% $1,509 1,295 $1.17 Sauna: ComputerCtr: Four+ ------Playground: Features Standard: Dishwasher; Disposal; Ceiling Fan; In Unit Laundry (Full Size); Central A/C; Gas Fireplace; Patio/Balcony; Carpet / Vinyl/Linoleum
Select Units: HighCeilings; ADA Access
Optional($): --
Security: Gated Entry; Intercom
Parking 1: Free Surface Parking Parking 2: -- Fee: -- Fee: --
Property Manager: Horning Brothers Owner: --
Comments Built in 3 phases between 1998 and 2002. Some renovations ongoing but not attributing to vacancies. Three-bedroom units are the most popular. Water & sewer fee: 1BD-$30, 2BD-$55, 3BD-$65. Trash $15. BBQ/picnic area, dog park, fitness trails. Billiards room in clubhouse. 95.66% Leased.
Floorplans (Published Rents as of 12/27/2017) (2) Historic Vacancy & Eff. Rent (1) DescriptionFeature BRsBath#Units Rent SqFtRent/SF Program Date %Vac 1BR$ 2BR$ 3BR$ -- 1 1Stamford/Highbury/Brixto $1,127 782 Market$1.4459 4.3%12/27/17 $1,131 $1,263 $1,509 Hgbr II SUNROOM /Den 1 1Highbury $1,229 832 Market$1.489 6.3%8/24/17 $1,192 $1,230 $1,472 BitnII SUNROOM / GaDen 1 1Brixton $1,175 871 Market$1.359 2.4%3/24/17 $1,199 $1,371 $1,486 Apro I/Alperton II / Ga-- 2 1Alperton $1,195 1,018 Market$1.176 0.2%2/3/17 $1,188 $1,306 $1,490 Knsuy/ Garden-- 2 2Kingsbury $1,250 1,062 Market$1.1856 KnsuyII SUNROOM /Den 2 2Kingsbury $1,269 1,094 Market$1.1642 Cme / Garden-- 2 2Camden $1,229 1,125 Market$1.09106 Cme II SUNROOM / G-- 2 2Camden $1,279 1,219 Market$1.0555 Genih/ Garden-- 2 2Greenwich $1,199 991 Market$1.21124 Adjustments to Rent Hlad/ Garden-- 3 2Holland $1,439 1,179 Market$1.2236 Incentives: Highbury-$800 free rent; Brixton-$600 free Nwuy/ Garden-- 3 2Newbury $1,395 1,320 Market$1.0632 rent MnrI/Manor II SUNRODen 3 2Manor $1,565 1,375 Market$1.1442 Utilities in Rent: Heat Fuel: Natural Gas Heat: Cooking: Wtr/Swr: Hot Water: Electricity: Trash:
VA177-002108Brittany Commons © 2018 Real Property Research Group, Inc. (1) Effective Rent is Published Rent, net of concessions and assumes that water, sewer and trash is included in rent (2) Published Rent is rent as quoted by management. RealPropertyResearch Group Colonial Village at Greenbrier Multifamily Community Profile 1 Greenbriars Drive CommunityType: Market Rate - General Fredericksburg,VA 22401 Map Ref: SP 08-J07 Structure Type: 3-Story Garden 258 Units 1.6% Vacant (4 units vacant) as of 12/27/2017 Opened in 1965
Unit Mix & Effective Rent (1) Community Amenities Bedroom Avg Rent SqFt%Total Avg $/SqFtAvg Clubhouse: Pool-Outdr: Eff 4.3% $906 408 $2.22 Comm Rm: Basketball: One 17.1% $963 716 $1.34 Centrl Lndry: Tennis: One/Den 5.8% $1,068 863 $1.24 Elevator: Volleyball: Two 48.1% $1,108 893 $1.24 Fitness: CarWash: Two/Den 5.8% $1,058 953 $1.11 Hot Tub: BusinessCtr: Three 7.0% $1,478 1,120 $1.32 Sauna: ComputerCtr: Four+ ------Playground: Features Standard: Dishwasher; Disposal; Ice Maker; Ceiling Fan; Central A/C; Patio/Balcony; Cable TV; Carpet / Hardwood
Select Units: In Unit Laundry; ADA Access
Optional($): --
Security: Patrol
Parking 1: Free Surface Parking Parking 2: -- Fee: -- Fee: --
Property Manager: MAA Owner: MAA
Comments 2BR/2BA & 3BR/2BA has W/D in unit. Grilling/picnic areas Basic cable/ Fitness center fee: $45/month mandatory fee. Trash fee: $10 ; Pest Control fee: $7.
Floorplans (Published Rents as of 12/27/2017) (2) Historic Vacancy & Eff. Rent (1) DescriptionFeature BRsBath#Units Rent SqFtRent/SF Program Date %Vac 1BR$ 2BR$ 3BR$ f Cahm/ Garden-- Eff 1Chatham $893 408 Market$2.1911 1.6%12/27/17 $990 $1,103 $1,478 KnoeI/II / Garden-- 1 1Kenmore $948 716 Market$1.3244 2.7%8/24/17 $947 $1,103 $1,722 KnoeIV / GardenDen 1 1Kenmore $1,053 863 Market$1.2215 1.2%3/30/17 $926 $1,138 $1,398 Ewo V / Garden-- 2 2Elwood $1,163 848 Market$1.3754 0.0%2/13/17 $1,018 $1,076 $1,423 Ewo I / Garden-- 2 1Elwood $1,023 900 Market$1.1417 .Ewo III / Garden-- 2 1.5Elwood $1,013 921 Market$1.1035 .Ewo IV / GardenDen 2 1.5Elwood $1,038 953 Market$1.0915 Ewo II / Garden-- 2 1Elwood $1,073 970 Market$1.1118 Bleee/ Garden-- 3 2Belvedere $1,453 1,120 Market$1.3018 Adjustments to Rent Incentives: Daily Pricing
Utilities in Rent: Heat Fuel: Natural Gas Heat: Cooking: Wtr/Swr: Hot Water: Electricity: Trash:
VA630-002185Colonial Village at Greenbrier © 2018 Real Property Research Group, Inc. (1) Effective Rent is Published Rent, net of concessions and assumes that water, sewer and trash is included in rent (2) Published Rent is rent as quoted by management. RealPropertyResearch Group Commons at Cowan Blvd Multifamily Community Profile 2352 Cowan Boulevard CommunityType: Market Rate - General Fredericksburg,VA 22401 Map Ref: SP 08-H04 Structure Type: 2-Story Garden 254 Units 3.9% Vacant (10 units vacant) as of 12/28/2017 Last Major Rehab in 2009 Opened in 1980
Unit Mix & Effective Rent (1) Community Amenities Bedroom Avg Rent SqFt%Total Avg $/SqFtAvg Clubhouse: Pool-Outdr: Eff ------Comm Rm: Basketball: One 27.2% $967 747 $1.30 Centrl Lndry: Tennis: One/Den ------Elevator: Volleyball: Two 66.5% $1,051 838 $1.25 Fitness: CarWash: Two/Den ------Hot Tub: BusinessCtr: Three 6.3% $1,335 1,069 $1.25 Sauna: ComputerCtr: Four+ ------Playground: Features Standard: Dishwasher; Disposal; In Unit Laundry (Hook-ups); Central A/C; Carpet / Hardwood
Select Units: --
Optional($): --
Security: --
Parking 1: Free Surface Parking Parking 2: -- Fee: -- Fee: --
Property Manager: Donaldson Group Owner: --
Comments Select units in phase I have been upgraded w/ new appliances (white), wooded cabinetry, laminate countertops, in-unit washer and dryer. Open pit grilling area. These upgraded units have a $75 premium, included in range of rents below. Add'l 2BR floorplan w/ 1.5BA 778 SqFt ranging $970-1022
Floorplans (Published Rents as of 12/28/2017) (2) Historic Vacancy & Eff. Rent (1) DescriptionFeature BRsBath#Units Rent SqFtRent/SF Program Date %Vac 1BR$ 2BR$ 3BR$ PaeII / Garden-- 1 1Phase $850 603 Market$1.4117 3.9%12/28/17 $967 $1,051 $1,335 PaeI / Garden-- 1 1Phase $973 794 Market$1.2252 1.6%8/24/17 $1,050 $1,210 $1,542 PaeII / Garden-- 2 1Phase $972 745 Market$1.3089 0.4%4/4/17 $997 $1,191 $1,355 PaeI / Garden-- 2 1Phase $1,076 941 Market$1.1480 0.0%2/2/17 $955 $1,091 $1,355 PaeII / Garden-- 3 2Phase $1,300 1,069 Market$1.2216
Adjustments to Rent Incentives: Free Golds Gym Membership
Utilities in Rent: Heat Fuel: Electric Heat: Cooking: Wtr/Swr: Hot Water: Electricity: Trash:
VA630-002186Commons at Cowan Blvd © 2018 Real Property Research Group, Inc. (1) Effective Rent is Published Rent, net of concessions and assumes that water, sewer and trash is included in rent (2) Published Rent is rent as quoted by management. RealPropertyResearch Group Crestview Multifamily Community Profile 100 Crestview Way CommunityType: LIHTC - General Fredericksburg,VA 22401 Map Ref: SP 8-F03 Structure Type: 3-Story Garden 180 Units 0.6% Vacant (1 units vacant) as of 12/28/2017 Opened in 2000
Unit Mix & Effective Rent (1) Community Amenities Bedroom Avg Rent SqFt%Total Avg $/SqFtAvg Clubhouse: Pool-Outdr: Eff ------Comm Rm: Basketball: One ------Centrl Lndry: Tennis: One/Den 13.3% $1,069 868 $1.23 Elevator: Volleyball: Two 66.7% $1,129 988 $1.14 Fitness: CarWash: Two/Den ------Hot Tub: BusinessCtr: Three 20.0% $1,359 1,128 $1.20 Sauna: ComputerCtr: Four+ ------Playground: Features Standard: Dishwasher; Disposal; In Unit Laundry (Full Size); Patio/Balcony; Carpet / Vinyl/Linoleum
Select Units: ADA Access
Optional($): --
Security: --
Parking 1: Free Surface Parking Parking 2: -- Fee: -- Fee: --
Property Manager: S.L. Nusbaum Realty Owner: --
Comments Storage closet on each balcony/patio. No W/L Community also includes a picnic area. Some accessible units. $100 for upgraded units if not already upgraded.
Floorplans (Published Rents as of 12/28/2017) (2) Historic Vacancy & Eff. Rent (1) DescriptionFeature BRsBath#Units Rent SqFtRent/SF Program Date %Vac 1BR$ 2BR$ 3BR$ Cet/ GardenDen 1 1Crest $1,069 868 LIHTC/ 60%$1.2324 0.6%12/28/17 $1,069 $1,129 $1,359 Td / Garden-- 2 2Tide $1,129 988 LIHTC/ 60%$1.14120 0.0%8/24/17 $1,107 $1,167 $1,397 Wv / Garden-- 3 2Wave $1,359 1,128 LIHTC/ 60%$1.2036 1.7%3/24/17 $1,069 $1,109 $1,349 0.0%2/2/17 $1,059 $1,089 $1,329
Adjustments to Rent Incentives: None
Utilities in Rent: Heat Fuel: Electric Heat: Cooking: Wtr/Swr: Hot Water: Electricity: Trash:
VA630-002194Crestview © 2018 Real Property Research Group, Inc. (1) Effective Rent is Published Rent, net of concessions and assumes that water, sewer and trash is included in rent (2) Published Rent is rent as quoted by management. RealPropertyResearch Group Greens of Salem Run Multifamily Community Profile 5600 Salem Run Blvd CommunityType: LIHTC - General Fredericksburg,VA 22407 Map Ref: SP 08-A10 Structure Type: 2-Story Townhouse 200 Units 1.0% Vacant (2 units vacant) as of 12/28/2017 Opened in 1999
Unit Mix & Effective Rent (1) Community Amenities Bedroom Avg Rent SqFt%Total Avg $/SqFtAvg Clubhouse: Pool-Outdr: Eff ------Comm Rm: Basketball: One ------Centrl Lndry: Tennis: One/Den ------Elevator: Volleyball: Two 52.0% $986 1,093 $0.90 Fitness: CarWash: Two/Den ------Hot Tub: BusinessCtr: Three 39.0% $1,137 1,309 $0.87 Sauna: ComputerCtr: Four+ 9.0% $1,546 1,734 $0.89 Playground: Features Standard: Dishwasher; Disposal; In Unit Laundry (Hook-ups); Central A/C; Patio/Balcony; Carpet / Vinyl/Linoleum
Select Units: Ceiling Fan
Optional($): --
Security: --
Parking 1: Free Surface Parking Parking 2: -- Fee: -- Fee: --
Property Manager: JRK Prop Holdings Owner: --
Comments Baseball field, billards, walking trail, grilling/picnic area W/S flat rates: 2BR $70, 3BR $85, 4BR $100 W/D fee: $45. No WL.
Floorplans (Published Rents as of 12/28/2017) (2) Historic Vacancy & Eff. Rent (1) DescriptionFeature BRsBath#Units Rent SqFtRent/SF Program Date %Vac 1BR$ 2BR$ 3BR$ -- 2 2.5Townhouse $1,049 1,093 LIHTC/ 60%$.96104 1.0%12/28/17 -- $986 $1,137 -- 3 2.5Townhouse $1,195 1,309 LIHTC/ 60%$.9178 2.0%8/24/17 ------4 2.5Townhouse $1,599 1,734 LIHTC/ 60%$.9218 --3/24/17 -- $1,140 $1,341 2.5%2/20/17 -- $1,081 $1,226
Adjustments to Rent Incentives: $1000 off 1st mo
Utilities in Rent: Heat Fuel: Electric Heat: Cooking: Wtr/Swr: Hot Water: Electricity: Trash:
VA177-002109Greens of Salem Run © 2018 Real Property Research Group, Inc. (1) Effective Rent is Published Rent, net of concessions and assumes that water, sewer and trash is included in rent (2) Published Rent is rent as quoted by management. RealPropertyResearch Group Heritage Park I & II Multifamily Community Profile 1000 Heritage Park Place CommunityType: LIHTC - General Fredericksburg,VA 22401 Structure Type: 3-Story Garden 74 Units 0.0% Vacant (0 units vacant) as of 12/27/2017 Last Major Rehab in 2003 Opened in 1973
Unit Mix & Effective Rent (1) Community Amenities Bedroom Avg Rent SqFt%Total Avg $/SqFtAvg Clubhouse: Pool-Outdr: Eff ------Comm Rm: Basketball: One ------Centrl Lndry: Tennis: One/Den ------Elevator: Volleyball: Two -- $690 825 $0.84 Fitness: CarWash: Two/Den ------Hot Tub: BusinessCtr: Three -- $768 969 $0.79 Sauna: ComputerCtr: Four+ ------Playground: Features Standard: Dishwasher; Disposal; Central A/C; Carpet / Vinyl/Linoleum
Select Units: --
Optional($): --
Security: --
Parking 1: Free Surface Parking Parking 2: -- Fee: -- Fee: --
Property Manager: HAI Management Owner: Homes for America
Comments Community has 202 units, of which 128 are project-based Section 8. 132 2BRs, 70 3BRs, 5 of the 70 are market rate Totals in this profile reflect only the 74 LIHTC units without project-based Section 8. LIHTC WL: 18 mo. Section 8 WL: 5 1/2 yrs. HUD insured.
Floorplans (Published Rents as of 12/27/2017) (2) Historic Vacancy & Eff. Rent (1) DescriptionFeature BRsBath#Units Rent SqFtRent/SF Program Date %Vac 1BR$ 2BR$ 3BR$ -- 2 1Garden $690 825 LIHTC/ 60%$.84-- 0.0%12/27/17 -- $690 $768 -- 3 1Garden $768 969 Market$.79-- 0.0%8/24/17 -- $690 $768 -- 3 1Garden $768 969 LIHTC/ 60%$.79-- 0.0%3/24/17 -- $690 $768 0.0%2/2/17 -- $743 $768
Adjustments to Rent Incentives: None
Utilities in Rent: Heat Fuel: Electric Heat: Cooking: Wtr/Swr: Hot Water: Electricity: Trash:
VA630-012514Heritage Park I & II © 2018 Real Property Research Group, Inc. (1) Effective Rent is Published Rent, net of concessions and assumes that water, sewer and trash is included in rent (2) Published Rent is rent as quoted by management. RealPropertyResearch Group Kilburn Crossing Multifamily Community Profile 6601 Charmed Way CommunityType: Market Rate - General Fredericksburg,VA 22407 Structure Type: 3-Story Garden 220 Units 3.2% Vacant (7 units vacant) as of 12/27/2017 Opened in 2004
Unit Mix & Effective Rent (1) Community Amenities Bedroom Avg Rent SqFt%Total Avg $/SqFtAvg Clubhouse: Pool-Outdr: Eff ------Comm Rm: Basketball: One 8.2% $1,189 826 $1.44 Centrl Lndry: Tennis: One/Den ------Elevator: Volleyball: Two 72.7% $1,240 1,143 $1.08 Fitness: CarWash: Two/Den ------Hot Tub: BusinessCtr: Three 19.1% $1,666 1,376 $1.21 Sauna: ComputerCtr: Four+ ------Playground: Features Standard: Dishwasher; Disposal; Ice Maker; Ceiling Fan; Central A/C; Gas Fireplace; Carpet / Vinyl/Linoleum
Select Units: Patio/Balcony; HighCeilings; ADA Access
Optional($): --
Security: Gated Entry; Intercom
Parking 1: Free Surface Parking Parking 2: -- Fee: -- Fee: --
Property Manager: Lerner Corp Owner: --
Comments Vaulted ceilings on top floor. Preferred employers include Medicorp and University of Mary Washington. Some accessible units. Soccer field, bbq/picnic area, ss apps, breakfast bar. Trash fee $6. Pest fee $1.40 Amenity Fee: $ 175 Floorplans (Published Rents as of 12/27/2017) (2) Historic Vacancy & Eff. Rent (1) DescriptionFeature BRsBath#Units Rent SqFtRent/SF Program Date %Vac 1BR$ 2BR$ 3BR$ Patio/Balcony 1 1Garden $1,169 804 Market$1.4512 3.2%12/27/17 $1,189 $1,240 $1,666 SNOM/ GardenSunroom 1 1SUNROOM $1,154 871 Market$1.326 2.7%8/24/17 $1,164 $1,278 $1,551 SNOM/ GardenSunroom 2 1SUNROOM $1,159 1,051 Market$1.102 7.7%3/24/17 $1,126 $1,280 $1,489 Patio/Balcony 2 2Garden $1,314 1,125 Market$1.17116 5.5%2/2/17 $1,144 $1,319 $1,553 SNOM/ GardenSunroom 2 2SUNROOM $1,259 1,219 Market$1.0338 Patio/Balcony 2 1Garden $990 984 Market$1.014 Den 3 2Garden $1,589 1,350 Market$1.1820 Patio/Balcony 3 2Garden $1,689 1,350 Market$1.25-- SNOM/ GardenSunroom 3 2SUNROOM $1,669 1,400 Market$1.1922 Adjustments to Rent Incentives: $1000 off 2BR
Utilities in Rent: Heat Fuel: Natural Gas Heat: Cooking: Wtr/Swr: Hot Water: Electricity: Trash:
VA177-007256Kilburn Crossing © 2018 Real Property Research Group, Inc. (1) Effective Rent is Published Rent, net of concessions and assumes that water, sewer and trash is included in rent (2) Published Rent is rent as quoted by management. RealPropertyResearch Group Mark at Salem Station, The Multifamily Community Profile 11132 Sunburst Lane CommunityType: Market Rate - General Fredericksburg,VA 22407 Map Ref: SP 08-A12 Structure Type: 3-Story Garden 224 Units 1.8% Vacant (4 units vacant) as of 12/22/2017 Last Major Rehab in 2013 Opened in 1996
Unit Mix & Effective Rent (1) Community Amenities Bedroom Avg Rent SqFt%Total Avg $/SqFtAvg Clubhouse: Pool-Outdr: Eff ------Comm Rm: Basketball: One 25.0% $1,148 732 $1.57 Centrl Lndry: Tennis: One/Den 19.6% $1,388 873 $1.59 Elevator: Volleyball: Two 39.3% $1,507 975 $1.54 Fitness: CarWash: Two/Den 5.4% $1,580 1,132 $1.40 Hot Tub: BusinessCtr: Three 10.7% $1,608 1,196 $1.34 Sauna: ComputerCtr: Four+ ------Playground: Features Standard: Dishwasher; Disposal; Ceiling Fan; In Unit Laundry (Full Size); Central A/C; Patio/Balcony; HighCeilings; Carpet / Vinyl/Linoleum
Select Units: ADA Access
Optional($): --
Security: --
Parking 1: Free Surface Parking Parking 2: -- Fee: -- Fee: --
Property Manager: Gates Hudson Assoc Owner: --
Comments Some accessible units, bbq/picnic area, sundeck Renovating 2-3 units per month. 25 finished, 1 in progress. 50% Renovated, 8 more this yr. after this yr. renov. Will be done on turnovers or as needed. Premium for renovated units: Contemporary$120; $220 Luxury. Amenity Fee: $ 125 Floorplans (Published Rents as of 12/22/2017) (2) Historic Vacancy & Eff. Rent (1) DescriptionFeature BRsBath#Units Rent SqFtRent/SF Program Date %Vac 1BR$ 2BR$ 3BR$ Brh/ Garden-- 1 1Birch $1,140 709 Market$1.6124 1.8%12/22/17 $1,253 $1,516 $1,608 Apn/ Garden-- 1 1Aspen $1,110 750 Market$1.4832 4.9%8/24/17 $1,168 $1,377 $1,555 BrhLoft / GardenDen 1 1Birch $1,370 829 Market$1.6512 2.7%3/28/17 $1,139 $1,392 $1,515 Bafr / GardenDen 1 1Bradford $1,360 890 Market$1.5332 1.8%2/20/17 $1,107 $1,224 $1,515 DgodLoft / GardenDen 2 2Dogwood $1,550 1,132 Market$1.3712 Cpes/ Garden-- 2 2Cypress $1,500 971 Market$1.5464 Dgod/ Garden-- 2 2Dogwood $1,415 987 Market$1.4324 Em/ Garden-- 3 2Elm $1,573 1,196 Market$1.3124 Adjustments to Rent Incentives: None
Utilities in Rent: Heat Fuel: Natural Gas Heat: Cooking: Wtr/Swr: Hot Water: Electricity: Trash:
VA177-002106Mark at Salem Station, The © 2018 Real Property Research Group, Inc. (1) Effective Rent is Published Rent, net of concessions and assumes that water, sewer and trash is included in rent (2) Published Rent is rent as quoted by management. RealPropertyResearch Group Merchant's Sq Residences Multifamily Community Profile 9001 John Myer St CommunityType: Market Rate - General Spotsylvania,VA 22553 Structure Type: 3-Story Garden 66 Units 6.1% Vacant (4 units vacant) as of 12/22/2017 Opened in 2015
Unit Mix & Effective Rent (1) Community Amenities Bedroom Avg Rent SqFt%Total Avg $/SqFtAvg Clubhouse: Pool-Outdr: Eff ------Comm Rm: Basketball: One 54.5% $1,021 864 $1.18 Centrl Lndry: Tennis: One/Den ------Elevator: Volleyball: Two 45.5% $1,293 1,223 $1.06 Fitness: CarWash: Two/Den ------Hot Tub: BusinessCtr: Three ------Sauna: ComputerCtr: Four+ ------Playground: Features Standard: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Ice Maker; Ceiling Fan; In Unit Laundry (Stacked); Central A/C; Patio/Balcony; HighCeilings; Carpet / Hardwood Select Units: --
Optional($): --
Security: --
Parking 1: Free Surface Parking Parking 2: -- Fee: -- Fee: --
Property Manager: Arista Mgmt Group Owner: W.J. Vakos
Comments Black appliances. Granite countertops in kitchen and baths. Patio/Balcony is screened. Walk-in closets. Property is considered Phase II of Spotsylvania Courthouse Village.
Floorplans (Published Rents as of 12/22/2017) (2) Historic Vacancy & Eff. Rent (1) DescriptionFeature BRsBath#Units Rent SqFtRent/SF Program Date %Vac 1BR$ 2BR$ 3BR$ -- 1 1Garden $1,090 847 Market$1.2930 6.1%12/22/17 $1,021 $1,293 -- -- 1 1Garden $1,190 947 Market$1.266 10.6%3/30/17* $998 $1,293 -- -- 2 2Garden $1,401 1,223 Market$1.1530 15.2%10/27/16* $1,012 $1,291 -- 30.3%5/25/16* $1,028 $1,293 -- * Indicates initial lease-up.
Adjustments to Rent Incentives: 1 mo free w/ 13 mo lease
Utilities in Rent: Heat Fuel: Electric Heat: Cooking: Wtr/Swr: Hot Water: Electricity: Trash:
VA177-022291Merchant's Sq Residences © 2018 Real Property Research Group, Inc. (1) Effective Rent is Published Rent, net of concessions and assumes that water, sewer and trash is included in rent (2) Published Rent is rent as quoted by management. RealPropertyResearch Group Overlook Terrace Multifamily Community Profile 4710 Overview Dr CommunityType: LIHTC - General Fredericksburg,VA 22408 Structure Type: 3-Story Garden 72 Units 4.2% Vacant (3 units vacant) as of 1/16/2018 Opened in 2016
Unit Mix & Effective Rent (1) Community Amenities Bedroom Avg Rent SqFt%Total Avg $/SqFtAvg Clubhouse: Pool-Outdr: Eff ------Comm Rm: Basketball: One 11.1% $920 800 $1.15 Centrl Lndry: Tennis: One/Den ------Elevator: Volleyball: Two 61.1% $1,093 1,126 $0.97 Fitness: CarWash: Two/Den ------Hot Tub: BusinessCtr: Three 27.8% $1,228 1,399 $0.88 Sauna: ComputerCtr: Four+ ------Playground: Features Standard: Dishwasher; In Unit Laundry (Hook-ups); Central A/C; Patio/Balcony; Storage (In Unit); Carpet
Select Units: --
Optional($): --
Security: --
Parking 1: Free Surface Parking Parking 2: -- Fee: -- Fee: --
Property Manager: Community Housing Owner: --
Comments First move-in: Feb 1, 2016. Stabilized August 2016. Absorption pace of 12 units/month. Additional storage on patio/balcony. No WL. Unit breakdown below is an RPRG estimate.
Floorplans (Published Rents as of 1/16/2018) (2) Historic Vacancy & Eff. Rent (1) DescriptionFeature BRsBath#Units Rent SqFtRent/SF Program Date %Vac 1BR$ 2BR$ 3BR$ -- 1 1Garden $905 800 LIHTC/ 50%$1.138 4.2%1/16/18 $920 $1,093 $1,228 -- 2 2Garden $1,073 1,126 LIHTC/ 50%$.9544 2.8%8/28/17 $920 $1,093 $1,228 -- 3 2Garden $1,203 1,399 LIHTC/ 50%$.8620 9.7%3/30/17 $920 $1,093 $1,228 4.2%2/20/17 $900 $1,080 $1,215 * Indicates initial lease-up.
Adjustments to Rent Incentives: None
Utilities in Rent: Heat Fuel: Electric Heat: Cooking: Wtr/Swr: Hot Water: Electricity: Trash:
VA177-022975Overlook Terrace © 2018 Real Property Research Group, Inc. (1) Effective Rent is Published Rent, net of concessions and assumes that water, sewer and trash is included in rent (2) Published Rent is rent as quoted by management. RealPropertyResearch Group Residences at Belmont Multifamily Community Profile 2529 Belmont Terrace CommunityType: Market Rate - General Fredericksburg,VA 22401 Map Ref: SP 08-H04 Structure Type: 3-Story Garden 300 Units 4.0% Vacant (12 units vacant) as of 12/27/2017 Last Major Rehab in 2008 Opened in 1987
Unit Mix & Effective Rent (1) Community Amenities Bedroom Avg Rent SqFt%Total Avg $/SqFtAvg Clubhouse: Pool-Outdr: Eff ------Comm Rm: Basketball: One 50.0% $1,121 743 $1.51 Centrl Lndry: Tennis: One/Den ------Elevator: Volleyball: Two 50.0% $1,227 958 $1.28 Fitness: CarWash: Two/Den ------Hot Tub: BusinessCtr: Three ------Sauna: ComputerCtr: Four+ ------Playground: Features Standard: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Ceiling Fan; In Unit Laundry (Full Size); Central A/C; Patio/Balcony; Carpet / Vinyl/Linoleum
Select Units: Fireplace; ADA Access
Optional($): --
Security: --
Parking 1: Free Surface Parking Parking 2: Carport Fee: -- Fee: $35
Property Manager: Capreit Owner: --
Comments Select units have been renovated to include new appliances (SS), wood cabinets, laminate counters, new carpet, & lighting. These upgraded units are available for an additional premium included in the range of rents below. Monthly pet fee $25. Walking trails.
Floorplans (Published Rents as of 12/27/2017) (2) Historic Vacancy & Eff. Rent (1) DescriptionFeature BRsBath#Units Rent SqFtRent/SF Program Date %Vac 1BR$ 2BR$ 3BR$ Oci / Garden-- 1 1Orchid $959 732 Market$1.3175 4.0%12/27/17 $1,121 $1,227 -- Ok/ Garden-- 1 1Oak $1,232 753 Market$1.6475 3.3%8/24/17 $1,232 $1,290 -- Dgod/ Garden-- 2 1Dogwood $1,334 1,000 Market$1.3375 5.0%4/4/17 $997 $1,255 -- Mgoi / Garden-- 2 1Magnolia $1,059 915 Market$1.1675 6.3%2/3/17 $1,022 $1,159 --
Adjustments to Rent Incentives: none
Utilities in Rent: Heat Fuel: Electric Heat: Cooking: Wtr/Swr: Hot Water: Electricity: Trash:
VA630-002188Residences at Belmont © 2018 Real Property Research Group, Inc. (1) Effective Rent is Published Rent, net of concessions and assumes that water, sewer and trash is included in rent (2) Published Rent is rent as quoted by management. RealPropertyResearch Group River Woods of Fredericksburg Multifamily Community Profile 2000 Woodlyn Drive CommunityType: Market Rate - General Fredericksburg,VA 22401 Map Ref: SP 08-G06 Structure Type: 2-Story Garden 187 Units Occupancy data not currently available Last Major Rehab in 2007 Opened in 1979
Unit Mix & Effective Rent (1) Community Amenities Bedroom Avg Rent SqFt%Total Avg $/SqFtAvg Clubhouse: Pool-Outdr: Eff ------Comm Rm: Basketball: One 32.1% $1,001 749 $1.34 Centrl Lndry: Tennis: One/Den 10.2% $1,058 897 $1.18 Elevator: Volleyball: Two 40.6% $1,078 907 $1.19 Fitness: CarWash: Two/Den 17.1% $1,113 1,044 $1.07 Hot Tub: BusinessCtr: Three ------Sauna: ComputerCtr: Four+ ------Playground: Features Standard: Dishwasher; Disposal; In Unit Laundry (Full Size); Central A/C; Patio/Balcony; Storage (In Unit); Carpet / Vinyl/Linoleum
Select Units: Ceiling Fan; ADA Access
Optional($): --
Security: --
Parking 1: Free Surface Parking Parking 2: Carport Fee: -- Fee: $20
Property Manager: Habitat America LLC Owner: --
Comments VHDA bond-financed property, but no longer tax credit. 75 units restricted to 60% AMI; the other 112 units were restricted to 150% AMI. 139 of 187 units renovated: new kitchens and baths, hardware, and light fixtures. Rents from website. Vacancy unknown.
Floorplans (Published Rents as of 1/16/2018) (2) Historic Vacancy & Eff. Rent (1) DescriptionFeature BRsBath#Units Rent SqFtRent/SF Program Date %Vac 1BR$ 2BR$ 3BR$ Brh/ Garden-- 1 1Birch $945 674 Market$1.4017 --1/16/18 $1,014 $1,088 -- Mpe/ Garden-- 1 1Maple $1,023 779 Market$1.3143 1.6%8/24/17 $1,014 $1,088 -- Wlo / GardenDen 1 1Willow $1,058 897 Market$1.1819 0.0%3/24/17 $1,028 $1,105 -- Ok/ GardenDen 2 2Oak $1,113 1,044 Market$1.0732 0.0%2/16/17 $1,028 $1,105 -- Em/ Garden-- 2 2Elm $1,078 907 Market$1.1976
Adjustments to Rent Incentives: None
Utilities in Rent: Heat Fuel: Natural Gas Heat: Cooking: Wtr/Swr: Hot Water: Electricity: Trash:
VA630-002191River Woods of Fredericksburg © 2018 Real Property Research Group, Inc. (1) Effective Rent is Published Rent, net of concessions and assumes that water, sewer and trash is included in rent (2) Published Rent is rent as quoted by management. RealPropertyResearch Group Riverside Manor Multifamily Community Profile 101 Riverside Manor Road CommunityType: LIHTC - General Fredericksburg,VA 22401 Map Ref: SP 8-G06 Structure Type: 2-Story Townhouse 188 Units 2.7% Vacant (5 units vacant) as of 12/27/2017 Opened in 2000
Unit Mix & Effective Rent (1) Community Amenities Bedroom Avg Rent SqFt%Total Avg $/SqFtAvg Clubhouse: Pool-Outdr: Eff ------Comm Rm: Basketball: One ------Centrl Lndry: Tennis: One/Den ------Elevator: Volleyball: Two 53.2% $1,410 1,280 $1.10 Fitness: CarWash: Two/Den ------Hot Tub: BusinessCtr: Three 46.8% $1,512 1,465 $1.03 Sauna: ComputerCtr: Four+ ------Playground: Features Standard: Dishwasher; Disposal; In Unit Laundry (Full Size); Central A/C; Patio/Balcony; Carpet / Vinyl/Linoleum
Select Units: Storage
Optional($): --
Security: Unit Alarms
Parking 1: Free Surface Parking Parking 2: Attached Garage Fee: -- Fee: --
Property Manager: Hercules Living Owner: --
Comments 143 LIHTC units and 45 market-rate units. Total: 100 2BR units, 88 3BR units. Vacancies: 1-2BR(Mkt); 1-3BR(Mkt); 2-2BR(TC); 1-3BR(TC).
Floorplans (Published Rents as of 12/27/2017) (2) Historic Vacancy & Eff. Rent (1) DescriptionFeature BRsBath#Units Rent SqFtRent/SF Program Date %Vac 1BR$ 2BR$ 3BR$ -- 2 2.5Townhouse $1,544 1,280 Market$1.2124 2.7%12/27/17 -- $1,410 $1,512 -- 2 2.5Townhouse $1,328 1,280 LIHTC/ 60%$1.0476 0.5%8/24/17 -- $1,361 $1,467 -- 3 2.5Townhouse $1,713 1,360 Market$1.267 3.7%3/30/17 -- $1,326 $1,426 -- 3 2.5Townhouse $1,449 1,360 LIHTC/ 60%$1.0722 2.7%2/6/17 -- $1,275 $1,440 Garage 3 2.5Townhouse $1,725 1,512 Market$1.147 Garage 3 2.5Townhouse $1,481 1,512 LIHTC/ 60%$.9822 Garage 3 2.5Townhouse $1,547 1,520 Market$1.027 Garage 3 2.5Townhouse $1,331 1,520 LIHTC/ 60%$.8823 Adjustments to Rent Incentives: Daily Pricing
Utilities in Rent: Heat Fuel: Electric Heat: Cooking: Wtr/Swr: Hot Water: Electricity: Trash:
VA630-002195Riverside Manor © 2018 Real Property Research Group, Inc. (1) Effective Rent is Published Rent, net of concessions and assumes that water, sewer and trash is included in rent (2) Published Rent is rent as quoted by management. RealPropertyResearch Group Salem Fields TH Multifamily Community Profile 7100 Alpha Ct CommunityType: LIHTC - General Fredericksburg,VA 22407 Structure Type: 2-Story Townhouse 139 Units 2.9% Vacant (4 units vacant) as of 12/27/2017 Opened in 2002
Unit Mix & Effective Rent (1) Community Amenities Bedroom Avg Rent SqFt%Total Avg $/SqFtAvg Clubhouse: Pool-Outdr: Eff ------Comm Rm: Basketball: One ------Centrl Lndry: Tennis: One/Den ------Elevator: Volleyball: Two ------Fitness: CarWash: Two/Den ------Hot Tub: BusinessCtr: Three 71.9% $1,354 1,450 $0.93 Sauna: ComputerCtr: Four+ 28.1% $1,392 1,712 $0.81 Playground: Features Standard: Dishwasher; Disposal; In Unit Laundry (Full Size); Central A/C; Patio/Balcony; Storage (In Unit); Carpet / Vinyl/Linoleum
Select Units: ADA Access
Optional($): --
Security: Unit Alarms
Parking 1: Free Surface Parking Parking 2: -- Fee: -- Fee: --
Property Manager: Hercules Owner: --
Comments No wait list. HUD insured.
Floorplans (Published Rents as of 12/27/2017) (2) Historic Vacancy & Eff. Rent (1) DescriptionFeature BRsBath#Units Rent SqFtRent/SF Program Date %Vac 1BR$ 2BR$ 3BR$ -- 3 2.5Townhouse $1,319 1,450 LIHTC/ 60%$.91100 2.9%12/27/17 -- -- $1,354 -- 4 2.5Townhouse $1,352 1,712 LIHTC/ 60%$.7939 0.0%3/24/17 -- -- $1,538 0.7%10/27/16 -- -- $1,499 0.7%5/20/16 -- -- $1,305
Adjustments to Rent Incentives: Daily Pricing
Utilities in Rent: Heat Fuel: Electric Heat: Cooking: Wtr/Swr: Hot Water: Electricity: Trash:
VA177-014938Salem Fields TH © 2018 Real Property Research Group, Inc. (1) Effective Rent is Published Rent, net of concessions and assumes that water, sewer and trash is included in rent (2) Published Rent is rent as quoted by management. RealPropertyResearch Group Salem Run I & II Multifamily Community Profile 5715 Castlebridge Road CommunityType: LIHTC - General Fredericksburg,VA 22402 Map Ref: ADC SP 8 A10 Structure Type: 2-Story Garden 268 Units 4.5% Vacant (12 units vacant) as of 12/27/2017 Opened in 1996
Unit Mix & Effective Rent (1) Community Amenities Bedroom Avg Rent SqFt%Total Avg $/SqFtAvg Clubhouse: Pool-Outdr: Eff ------Comm Rm: Basketball: One ------Centrl Lndry: Tennis: One/Den ------Elevator: Volleyball: Two 79.9% $1,040 1,100 $0.95 Fitness: CarWash: Two/Den ------Hot Tub: BusinessCtr: Three 20.1% $1,170 1,325 $0.88 Sauna: ComputerCtr: Four+ ------Playground: Features Standard: Dishwasher; In Unit Laundry (Full Size); Central A/C; Patio/Balcony; Carpet / Vinyl/Linoleum
Select Units: ADA Access
Optional($): --
Security: --
Parking 1: Free Surface Parking Parking 2: -- Fee: -- Fee: --
Property Manager: Grady Mgmt Owner: --
Comments Phase II opened in 1998 Picnic area, oversized closets, breakfast bar, european step-saver kitchen No WL
Floorplans (Published Rents as of 12/27/2017) (2) Historic Vacancy & Eff. Rent (1) DescriptionFeature BRsBath#Units Rent SqFtRent/SF Program Date %Vac 1BR$ 2BR$ 3BR$ -- 2 2Garden $1,035 1,100 LIHTC/ 60%$.9454 4.5%12/27/17 -- $1,040 $1,170 -- 2 2Garden $1,015 1,100 LIHTC/ 50%$.92160 3.7%8/24/17 -- $1,040 $1,170 -- 3 2Garden $1,145 1,325 LIHTC/ 50%$.8654 4.5%3/24/17 -- $1,030 $1,170 3.7%2/3/17 -- $1,015 $1,170
Adjustments to Rent Incentives: None
Utilities in Rent: Heat Fuel: Electric Heat: Cooking: Wtr/Swr: Hot Water: Electricity: Trash:
VA177-002110Salem Run I & II © 2018 Real Property Research Group, Inc. (1) Effective Rent is Published Rent, net of concessions and assumes that water, sewer and trash is included in rent (2) Published Rent is rent as quoted by management. RealPropertyResearch Group Seasons at Celebrate Virginia Multifamily Community Profile 2001 Dogwood Dr CommunityType: Market Rate - General Fredericksburg,VA 22401 Structure Type: 3-Story Garden 482 Units 1.9% Vacant (9 units vacant) as of 12/27/2017 Opened in 2011
Unit Mix & Effective Rent (1) Community Amenities Bedroom Avg Rent SqFt%Total Avg $/SqFtAvg Clubhouse: Pool-Outdr: Eff ------Comm Rm: Basketball: One 38.2% $1,121 781 $1.44 Centrl Lndry: Tennis: One/Den 13.3% $1,365 987 $1.38 Elevator: Volleyball: Two 42.7% $1,284 1,157 $1.11 Fitness: CarWash: Two/Den 0.4% $1,284 1,242 $1.03 Hot Tub: BusinessCtr: Three 5.4% $1,734 1,300 $1.33 Sauna: ComputerCtr: Four+ ------Playground: Features Standard: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Ice Maker; Ceiling Fan; In Unit Laundry (Full Size); Central A/C; Carpet / Ceramic
Select Units: Patio/Balcony; HighCeilings; Storage; ADA Access
Optional($): --
Security: Gated Entry; Intercom; Keyed Bldg Entry
Parking 1: Free Surface Parking Parking 2: Detached Garage Fee: -- Fee: $150
Property Manager: MAA Owner: --
Comments Standard finishes include black appliances, granite counters, upgraded cabinetry, full-size w/d, and balcony/sunroom. 5/14: Combined with Seasons Phase II and sharing leasing office/amenities. Theatre room, billiards, dog park. Trash fee: $10. Ph I absptn: 46 units/mo; Ph II built in 2012 and leased up 17 units/mo.
Floorplans (Published Rents as of 12/27/2017) (2) Historic Vacancy & Eff. Rent (1) DescriptionFeature BRsBath#Units Rent SqFtRent/SF Program Date %Vac 1BR$ 2BR$ 3BR$ TeChancellor / GardenPool View 1 1The $1,193 780 Market$1.534 1.9%12/27/17 $1,184 $1,284 $1,734 TeBelmont / Garden-- 1 1The $1,193 781 Market$1.53180 1.7%8/24/17 $1,341 $1,693 $1,958 TeChancellor SUNROODen 1 1The $1,353 859 Market$1.584 2.1%3/24/17 $1,265 $1,522 $1,585 TeMadison / GardenDen 1 1The $1,339 995 Market$1.3560 2.5%2/3/17 $1,285 $1,542 $1,635 TeWashington / GardenPool View 2 2The $1,368 1,157 Market$1.18204 TeMason / Garden-- 2 2The $1,368 1,157 Market$1.182 TeWashington SUNRODen 2 2The $1,368 1,242 Market$1.102 TeMonroe / Garden-- 3 2The $1,853 1,300 Market$1.4326 Adjustments to Rent Incentives: Select 1 & 2BR: 1 mo free
Utilities in Rent: Heat Fuel: Electric Heat: Cooking: Wtr/Swr: Hot Water: Electricity: Trash:
VA630-016331Seasons at Celebrate Virginia © 2018 Real Property Research Group, Inc. (1) Effective Rent is Published Rent, net of concessions and assumes that water, sewer and trash is included in rent (2) Published Rent is rent as quoted by management. RealPropertyResearch Group Silver Collection at Cosners Corner Multifamily Community Profile 9500 Silver Collection Circle CommunityType: Market Rate - General Fredericksburg,VA 22408 Structure Type: 3-Story Garden/TH 274 Units 7.3% Vacant (20 units vacant) as of 12/27/2017 Opened in 2016
Unit Mix & Effective Rent (1) Community Amenities Bedroom Avg Rent SqFt%Total Avg $/SqFtAvg Clubhouse: Pool-Outdr: Eff ------Comm Rm: Basketball: One 43.8% $1,169 770 $1.52 Centrl Lndry: Tennis: One/Den ------Elevator: Volleyball: Two 51.8% $1,471 1,178 $1.25 Fitness: CarWash: Two/Den ------Hot Tub: BusinessCtr: Three 4.4% $1,821 1,398 $1.30 Sauna: ComputerCtr: Four+ ------Playground: Features Standard: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Ice Maker; Ceiling Fan; In Unit Laundry (Hook-ups); Central A/C; HighCeilings; Hardwood / Carpet
Select Units: Patio/Balcony
Optional($): --
Security: Gated Entry
Parking 1: Attached Garage Parking 2: Detached Garage Fee: $200 Fee: $150
Property Manager: Pegasus Residential Owner: --
Comments Outdoor fire pit; gas grills; dog park; pet spa; massage room; steam room; fitness classes, conference room, spa. Quartz CT's, SS appliances, oversized shower heads, luxury cabinetry options. Breakfast provided daily in clubhouse. Opened June 2016. Reached 95% July 31, 2017. Mgmt doesn’t know why vacany is so high.
Floorplans (Published Rents as of 12/27/2017) (2) Historic Vacancy & Eff. Rent (1) DescriptionFeature BRsBath#Units Rent SqFtRent/SF Program Date %Vac 1BR$ 2BR$ 3BR$ -- 1 1Garden $1,248 770 Market$1.62120 7.3%12/27/17 $1,169 $1,471 $1,821 -- 2 2Garden $1,553 1,170 Market$1.33138 1.1%8/24/17 $1,318 $1,656 $2,185 -- 2 2.5Townhouse $2,250 1,459 Market$1.544 24.1%3/24/17* $1,290 $1,498 $2,006 1T& 2ND FLOOR / GardGarage 3 21ST $1,948 1,398 Market$1.3912 26.3%2/3/17* $1,290 $1,498 $2,185 3DFLOOR / Garden-- 3 23RD $2,000 1,398 Market$1.43-- * Indicates initial lease-up.
Adjustments to Rent Incentives: 1 mo free
Utilities in Rent: Heat Fuel: Electric Heat: Cooking: Wtr/Swr: Hot Water: Electricity: Trash:
VA177-023619Silver Collection at Cosners Corner © 2018 Real Property Research Group, Inc. (1) Effective Rent is Published Rent, net of concessions and assumes that water, sewer and trash is included in rent (2) Published Rent is rent as quoted by management. RealPropertyResearch Group Southpoint Reserve at Stoney Creek Multifamily Community Profile 5300 Steeplechase Drive CommunityType: Market Rate - General Fredericksburg,VA 22407 Map Ref: SP 15-D02 Structure Type: 2-Story Garden 156 Units 4.5% Vacant (7 units vacant) as of 12/27/2017 Last Major Rehab in 2007 Opened in 1985
Unit Mix & Effective Rent (1) Community Amenities Bedroom Avg Rent SqFt%Total Avg $/SqFtAvg Clubhouse: Pool-Outdr: Eff ------Comm Rm: Basketball: One 43.6% $1,146 569 $2.01 Centrl Lndry: Tennis: One/Den ------Elevator: Volleyball: Two 51.3% $1,344 855 $1.57 Fitness: CarWash: Two/Den ------Hot Tub: BusinessCtr: Three 5.1% $1,439 1,075 $1.34 Sauna: ComputerCtr: Four+ ------Playground: Features Standard: Dishwasher; Disposal; In Unit Laundry (Full Size); Central A/C; Patio/Balcony; Carpet / Vinyl/Linoleum
Select Units: Fireplace; ADA Access
Optional($): --
Security: --
Parking 1: Free Surface Parking Parking 2: -- Fee: -- Fee: --
Property Manager: BH Mgmt Owner: --
Comments Select 2BR apartments have been renovated to include new appliances (white), white-finished cabinetry, and laminate countertops. These units typically have premiums of $300 and are included in the range of rents below. Formerly Steeplechase. Vacancies: 3-Chelsea; 1-Brookline; 2-Somerset; 1-Avondale.
Floorplans (Published Rents as of 12/27/2017) (2) Historic Vacancy & Eff. Rent (1) DescriptionFeature BRsBath#Units Rent SqFtRent/SF Program Date %Vac 1BR$ 2BR$ 3BR$ Nrod/ Garden-- 1 1Norwood $1,004 450 Market$2.2320 4.5%12/27/17 $1,146 $1,344 $1,439 Cesa/ Garden-- 1 1Chelsea $1,170 619 Market$1.8948 2.6%8/24/17 $1,118 $1,366 $1,450 Bokie/ Garden-- 2 1Brookline $1,269 798 Market$1.5932 1.3%3/24/17 $1,066 $1,168 $1,408 Smre / Garden-- 2 2Somerset $1,345 893 Market$1.5148 2.6%2/20/17 $1,065 $1,264 $1,492 Aodl / Garden-- 3 2Avondale $1,404 1,075 Market$1.318
Adjustments to Rent Incentives: Daily Pricing
Utilities in Rent: Heat Fuel: Electric Heat: Cooking: Wtr/Swr: Hot Water: Electricity: Trash:
VA177-002105Southpoint Reserve at Stoney Creek © 2018 Real Property Research Group, Inc. (1) Effective Rent is Published Rent, net of concessions and assumes that water, sewer and trash is included in rent (2) Published Rent is rent as quoted by management. RealPropertyResearch Group Spotsylvania Courthouse Village Multifamily Community Profile 9010 Battlefield Blvd CommunityType: Market Rate - General Spotsylvania,VA 22553 Structure Type: 3-Story Mid Rise 26 Units 3.8% Vacant (1 units vacant) as of 12/27/2017 Opened in 2009
Unit Mix & Effective Rent (1) Community Amenities Bedroom Avg Rent SqFt%Total Avg $/SqFtAvg Clubhouse: Pool-Outdr: Eff ------Comm Rm: Basketball: One 53.8% $958 824 $1.16 Centrl Lndry: Tennis: One/Den ------Elevator: Volleyball: Two 34.6% $1,235 1,216 $1.02 Fitness: CarWash: Two/Den 11.5% $1,138 1,094 $1.04 Hot Tub: BusinessCtr: Three ------Sauna: ComputerCtr: Four+ ------Playground: Features Standard: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Ice Maker; In Unit Laundry (Stacked); Central A/C; Carpet / Ceramic
Select Units: --
Optional($): --
Security: Intercom; Keyed Bldg Entry
Parking 1: Free Surface Parking Parking 2: -- Fee: -- Fee: --
Property Manager: Arista Management Owner: W.J. Vakos
Comments Basic units include white appliances, white-faced cabinetry, and laminate countertops. Units are renov at turn over. Upgraded units feature stainless steel appliances and granite countertops. Unit breakdown: 8 2BR/2BAs; 8 2BR w/study; 8 2BR/1.5BAs
Floorplans (Published Rents as of 12/27/2017) (2) Historic Vacancy & Eff. Rent (1) DescriptionFeature BRsBath#Units Rent SqFtRent/SF Program Date %Vac 1BR$ 2BR$ 3BR$ .Ugae / Mid Rise - EleStudy 1 1.5Upgraded $1,233 1,089 Market$1.134 3.8%12/27/17 $958 $1,210 -- Bsc/ Mid Rise - Elevato-- 1 1Basic $925 687 Market$1.358 11.5%3/30/17 $932 $1,237 -- Ugae / Mid Rise - Ele-- 1 1Upgraded $1,100 844 Market$1.302 11.5%10/27/16 $949 $1,211 -- .Ugae / Mid Rise - EleDen 2 1.5Upgraded $1,233 1,094 Market$1.133 15.4%5/25/16 $944 $1,229 -- Ugae / Mid Rise - Ele-- 2 2Upgraded $1,338 1,160 Market$1.152 Ugae / Mid Rise - Ele-- 2 2Upgraded $1,338 1,215 Market$1.104 Ugae / Mid Rise - Ele-- 2 2Upgraded $1,338 1,254 Market$1.073
Adjustments to Rent Incentives: 1 mo free w/ 13 mo lease
Utilities in Rent: Heat Fuel: Electric Heat: Cooking: Wtr/Swr: Hot Water: Electricity: Trash:
VA177-016330Spotsylvania Courthouse Village © 2018 Real Property Research Group, Inc. (1) Effective Rent is Published Rent, net of concessions and assumes that water, sewer and trash is included in rent (2) Published Rent is rent as quoted by management. RealPropertyResearch Group Station Square at Cosner's Corner Multifamily Community Profile 9419 Cumberland Drive CommunityType: Market Rate - General Fredericksburg,VA 22408 Structure Type: 3-Story Garden 380 Units 0.8% Vacant (3 units vacant) as of 12/28/2017 Opened in 2012
Unit Mix & Effective Rent (1) Community Amenities Bedroom Avg Rent SqFt%Total Avg $/SqFtAvg Clubhouse: Pool-Outdr: Eff ------Comm Rm: Basketball: One 42.1% $1,558 794 $1.96 Centrl Lndry: Tennis: One/Den 5.3% $1,438 995 $1.45 Elevator: Volleyball: Two 42.6% $1,443 1,196 $1.21 Fitness: CarWash: Two/Den ------Hot Tub: BusinessCtr: Three 10.0% $1,486 1,514 $0.98 Sauna: ComputerCtr: Four+ ------Playground: Features Standard: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Ice Maker; Ceiling Fan; In Unit Laundry (Full Size); Central A/C; Patio/Balcony
Select Units: --
Optional($): --
Security: Gated Entry; Keyed Bldg Entry
Parking 1: Free Surface Parking Parking 2: Detached Garage Fee: -- Fee: $99
Property Manager: MAA Owner: --
Comments Ph I: 260 units; began leasing Aug 2012; stabilized May 2014. Ph II: 120 units. Opened Dec 2015 and stabilized May 2016. Blk appl, granite ctops, crown molding. Garage fee: $99-149. Green Comm. Outdoor FP, poolside grills, Internet café, theatre rm. Pest $7. Amenity Fee: $ 250 Floorplans (Published Rents as of 12/28/2017) (2) Historic Vacancy & Eff. Rent (1) DescriptionFeature BRsBath#Units Rent SqFtRent/SF Program Date %Vac 1BR$ 2BR$ 3BR$ DPOA/hs II / Gar-- 1 1DIPLOMAT/Phase $1,713 746 Market$2.3030 0.8%12/28/17 $1,545 $1,443 $1,486 ERSA / Garden-- 1 1EUROSTAR $1,448 788 Market$1.84100 0.5%8/24/17 $1,236 $1,429 $1,878 CSAINPaeII / Ga-- 1 1CASCADIEN/Phase $1,718 861 Market$2.0030 0.3%3/24/17 $1,190 $1,430 $1,618 OIN / GardenDen 1 1ORIENT $1,428 995 Market$1.4420 0.3%2/13/17 $1,103 $1,348 $1,587 SOTMN/ Garden-- 2 2SCOTTSMAN $1,368 1,157 Market$1.1890 * Indicates initial lease-up. JFESNA/hs II-- 2 2JEFFERSONIAN/Phase $1,408 1,198 Market$1.1824 EIO/hs II / Garde-- 2 2EDISON/Phase $1,438 1,233 Market$1.1724 CNUY/ Garden-- 2 2CENTURY $1,698 1,300 Market$1.3124 OYPA/hs II / Gar-- 3 2OLYMPIAN/Phase $1,476 1,514 Market$.9738 Adjustments to Rent Incentives: Daily Pricing
Utilities in Rent: Heat Fuel: Electric Heat: Cooking: Wtr/Swr: Hot Water: Electricity: Trash:
VA177-018177Station Square at Cosner's Corner © 2018 Real Property Research Group, Inc. (1) Effective Rent is Published Rent, net of concessions and assumes that water, sewer and trash is included in rent (2) Published Rent is rent as quoted by management. RealPropertyResearch Group Timber Ridge TH Multifamily Community Profile 3500 Goldenfield Lane CommunityType: LIHTC - General Fredericksburg,VA 22408 Map Ref: SP 16-D06 Structure Type: Townhouse 147 Units 1.4% Vacant (2 units vacant) as of 12/27/2017 Opened in 1999
Unit Mix & Effective Rent (1) Community Amenities Bedroom Avg Rent SqFt%Total Avg $/SqFtAvg Clubhouse: Pool-Outdr: Eff ------Comm Rm: Basketball: One ------Centrl Lndry: Tennis: One/Den ------Elevator: Volleyball: Two 57.1% $1,163 1,156 $1.01 Fitness: CarWash: Two/Den ------Hot Tub: BusinessCtr: Three 42.9% $1,249 1,440 $0.87 Sauna: ComputerCtr: Four+ ------Playground: Features Standard: Dishwasher; Disposal; In Unit Laundry (Full Size); Central A/C; Patio/Balcony; Carpet / Vinyl/Linoleum
Select Units: Ceiling Fan
Optional($): --
Security: --
Parking 1: Free Surface Parking Parking 2: -- Fee: -- Fee: --
Property Manager: Hercules Manageme Owner: --
Comments Opened April 1999 No WL
Floorplans (Published Rents as of 12/27/2017) (2) Historic Vacancy & Eff. Rent (1) DescriptionFeature BRsBath#Units Rent SqFtRent/SF Program Date %Vac 1BR$ 2BR$ 3BR$ -- 2 1.5Townhouse $1,133 1,156 LIHTC/ 60%$.9884 1.4%12/27/17 -- $1,163 $1,249 -- 3 2.5Townhouse $1,214 1,440 LIHTC/ 60%$.8463 6.1%8/24/17 -- $1,014 $1,349 4.1%3/28/17 -- $1,225 $1,365 3.4%2/20/17 -- $1,154 $1,259
Adjustments to Rent Incentives: $500 Gift card if move-in by end of Dec.
Utilities in Rent: Heat Fuel: Electric Heat: Cooking: Wtr/Swr: Hot Water: Electricity: Trash:
VA177-002103Timber Ridge TH © 2018 Real Property Research Group, Inc. (1) Effective Rent is Published Rent, net of concessions and assumes that water, sewer and trash is included in rent (2) Published Rent is rent as quoted by management. RealPropertyResearch Group Townsend Square Multifamily Community Profile 1100 Townsend Blvd CommunityType: LIHTC - General Fredericksburg,VA 22410 Map Ref: SP 08-H08 Structure Type: 3-Story Garden 200 Units 1.5% Vacant (3 units vacant) as of 12/27/2017 Opened in 1995
Unit Mix & Effective Rent (1) Community Amenities Bedroom Avg Rent SqFt%Total Avg $/SqFtAvg Clubhouse: Pool-Outdr: Eff ------Comm Rm: Basketball: One ------Centrl Lndry: Tennis: One/Den ------Elevator: Volleyball: Two 78.0% $1,086 894 $1.21 Fitness: CarWash: Two/Den ------Hot Tub: BusinessCtr: Three 22.0% $1,265 1,063 $1.19 Sauna: ComputerCtr: Four+ ------Playground: Features Standard: Dishwasher; Disposal; In Unit Laundry (Full Size); Central A/C; ADA Access; Carpet / Vinyl/Linoleum
Select Units: Ceiling Fan
Optional($): --
Security: Patrol
Parking 1: Free Surface Parking Parking 2: -- Fee: -- Fee: --
Property Manager: Kettler Owner: FCP
Comments Conference center, picnic/grilling areas, horseshoe pit, sundeck. Security patrol during night hours. Located in City of Fredricksburg, not Spotsylvania County. Fredericksburg Regional Transit stop on site. No WL
Floorplans (Published Rents as of 12/27/2017) (2) Historic Vacancy & Eff. Rent (1) DescriptionFeature BRsBath#Units Rent SqFtRent/SF Program Date %Vac 1BR$ 2BR$ 3BR$ -- 2 2Garden $1,066 894 LIHTC/ 60%$1.19156 1.5%12/27/17 -- $1,086 $1,265 -- 3 2Garden $1,240 1,063 LIHTC/ 60%$1.1744 2.0%8/24/17 -- $1,075 $1,298 8.5%3/28/17 -- $1,015 $1,175 7.0%2/13/17 -- $1,148 $1,328
Adjustments to Rent Incentives: None
Utilities in Rent: Heat Fuel: Electric Heat: Cooking: Wtr/Swr: Hot Water: Electricity: Trash:
VA177-002104Townsend Square © 2018 Real Property Research Group, Inc. (1) Effective Rent is Published Rent, net of concessions and assumes that water, sewer and trash is included in rent (2) Published Rent is rent as quoted by management. RealPropertyResearch Group Valor Apartments Multifamily Community Profile 1150 Noble Way CommunityType: LIHTC - General Fredericksburg,VA 22401 Structure Type: 3-Story Garden 128 Units 0.8% Vacant (1 units vacant) as of 12/27/2017 Opened in 2017
Unit Mix & Effective Rent (1) Community Amenities Bedroom Avg Rent SqFt%Total Avg $/SqFtAvg Clubhouse: Pool-Outdr: Eff ------Comm Rm: Basketball: One 12.5% $1,136 893 $1.27 Centrl Lndry: Tennis: One/Den ------Elevator: Volleyball: Two 56.3% $1,319 1,165 $1.13 Fitness: CarWash: Two/Den ------Hot Tub: BusinessCtr: Three 31.3% $1,556 1,342 $1.16 Sauna: ComputerCtr: Four+ ------Playground: Features Standard: Dishwasher; Microwave; In Unit Laundry (Full Size); Central A/C; Patio/Balcony; Carpet
Select Units: --
Optional($): --
Security: --
Parking 1: Free Surface Parking Parking 2: -- Fee: -- Fee: --
Property Manager: SL Nusbaum Owner: SL Nusbaum
Comments Black applicances, granite counters. 1 bldg has 4 flrs, 4 bldgs have 3 flrs. Leasing paperwork started & clubhouse opened 1.16.17. Opened 3/1/17. Last units were delivered late July 2017. Outdoor kitchen, grills & fire pit. Dog Park. Car Care Center.
Floorplans (Published Rents as of 12/27/2017) (2) Historic Vacancy & Eff. Rent (1) DescriptionFeature BRsBath#Units Rent SqFtRent/SF Program Date %Vac 1BR$ 2BR$ 3BR$ -- 1 1Garden $1,121 893 LIHTC/ 60%$1.2616 0.8%12/27/17 $1,136 $1,319 $1,556 B Garden-- 2 2B/ $1,299 1,150 LIHTC/ 60%$1.1324 18.0%8/28/17* $1,136 $1,211 $1,428 A Garden-- 2 2A/ $1,299 1,173 LIHTC/ 60%$1.1148 88.3%3/24/17* $1,114 $1,211 $1,274 -- 3 2Garden $1,531 1,342 LIHTC/ 60%$1.1440 1/27/17*100.0% $995 $1,198 $1,308 * Indicates initial lease-up.
Adjustments to Rent Incentives: None
Utilities in Rent: Heat Fuel: Electric Heat: Cooking: Wtr/Swr: Hot Water: Electricity: Trash:
VA630-024297Valor Apartments © 2018 Real Property Research Group, Inc. (1) Effective Rent is Published Rent, net of concessions and assumes that water, sewer and trash is included in rent (2) Published Rent is rent as quoted by management. RealPropertyResearch Group Wicklow Sq & Weston Circle Multifamily Community Profile 1097 Wicklow Drive, Apt 101 CommunityType: LIHTC - General Fredericksburg,VA 22401 Map Ref: SP 08-G02 Structure Type: 3-Story Garden 246 Units 2.4% Vacant (6 units vacant) as of 12/27/2017 Last Major Rehab in 2003 Opened in 1963
Unit Mix & Effective Rent (1) Community Amenities Bedroom Avg Rent SqFt%Total Avg $/SqFtAvg Clubhouse: Pool-Outdr: Eff ------Comm Rm: Basketball: One 11.0% $950 646 $1.47 Centrl Lndry: Tennis: One/Den 3.7% $988 789 $1.25 Elevator: Volleyball: Two 63.4% $1,017 918 $1.11 Fitness: CarWash: Two/Den 17.1% $1,177 1,085 $1.09 Hot Tub: BusinessCtr: Three 4.9% $1,060 1,144 $0.93 Sauna: ComputerCtr: Four+ ------Playground: Features Standard: Dishwasher; Disposal; Patio/Balcony; Carpet / Vinyl/Linoleum
Select Units: In Unit Laundry; HighCeilings; ADA Access
Optional($): --
Security: Gated Entry; Intercom
Parking 1: Free Surface Parking Parking 2: -- Fee: -- Fee: --
Property Manager: habitat America Owner: --
Comments Formerly Fall Hill Ph I (Wicklow Sq) & Ph II (Weston Circle). Weston, 150 tax credit units completed in 2003. Absored 15 units per month, April 2003 to January 2004. Wicklow-laundry rm in each bldg; Weston-full size in-unit W/D. Onsite bus stop. Vacancies: 1-1BR; 5-2BR/2BAs.
Floorplans (Published Rents as of 12/27/2017) (2) Historic Vacancy & Eff. Rent (1) DescriptionFeature BRsBath#Units Rent SqFtRent/SF Program Date %Vac 1BR$ 2BR$ 3BR$ Wclw/ Garden-- 1 1Wicklow $890 515 LIHTC/ 60%$1.739 2.4%12/27/17 $960 $1,051 $1,060 Wclw/ GardenDen 1 1Wicklow $895 630 LIHTC/ 60%$1.423 0.8%8/24/17 $960 $1,051 $1,060 Wso / Garden-- 1 1Weston $980 711 LIHTC/ 60%$1.3818 2.0%3/30/17 $921 $1,015 $1,028 Wso / GardenDen 1 1Weston $1,035 868 LIHTC/ 60%$1.196 3.7%2/3/17 $898 $979 $921 Wso / Garden-- 2 2Weston $1,065 1,007 LIHTC/ 60%$1.0696 Wso / GardenDen 2 2Weston $1,250 1,164 LIHTC/ 60%$1.0730 Wclw/ Garden-- 2 1Wicklow $940 776 LIHTC/ 60%$1.2160 Wclw/ GardenDen 2 1Wicklow $995 886 LIHTC/ 60%$1.1212 Wclw/ Garden-- 3 2Wicklow $1,060 1,144 LIHTC/ 60%$.9312 Adjustments to Rent Incentives: None
Utilities in Rent: Heat Fuel: Electric Heat: Cooking: Wtr/Swr: Hot Water: Electricity: Trash:
VA630-002184Wicklow Sq & Weston Circle © 2018 Real Property Research Group, Inc. (1) Effective Rent is Published Rent, net of concessions and assumes that water, sewer and trash is included in rent (2) Published Rent is rent as quoted by management. RealPropertyResearch Group Windover Villas Multifamily Community Profile 8001 Cherry Tree Drive CommunityType: LIHTC - General Fredericksburg,VA 22407 Map Ref: SP 06-J09 Structure Type: Single Family 90 Units 1.1% Vacant (1 units vacant) as of 12/27/2017 Opened in 1997
Unit Mix & Effective Rent (1) Community Amenities Bedroom Avg Rent SqFt%Total Avg $/SqFtAvg Clubhouse: Pool-Outdr: Eff ------Comm Rm: Basketball: One ------Centrl Lndry: Tennis: One/Den ------Elevator: Volleyball: Two ------Fitness: CarWash: Two/Den ------Hot Tub: BusinessCtr: Three 50.0% $1,556 1,440 $1.08 Sauna: ComputerCtr: Four+ 50.0% $1,709 1,500 $1.14 Playground: Features Standard: Dishwasher; Disposal; In Unit Laundry (Hook-ups); Central A/C; Patio/Balcony; Carpet / Vinyl/Linoleum
Select Units: ADA Access
Optional($): --
Security: --
Parking 1: Attached Garage Parking 2: -- Fee: $0 Fee: --
Property Manager: S.L. Nusbaum Owner: --
Comments Management maintains yards and covers HOA fees. Ranch style single-family homes w/ driveways and attached garages. No WL. Vacancies: 1-3BR.
Floorplans (Published Rents as of 12/27/2017) (2) Historic Vacancy & Eff. Rent (1) DescriptionFeature BRsBath#Units Rent SqFtRent/SF Program Date %Vac 1BR$ 2BR$ 3BR$ S DetachedGarage 3 2SF $1,531 1,440 LIHTC/ 60%$1.0645 1.1%12/27/17 -- -- $1,556 S DetachedGarage 4 2SF $1,679 1,500 LIHTC/ 60%$1.1245 0.0%3/28/17 -- -- $1,539 1.1%10/27/16 -- -- $1,539 2.2%5/20/16 -- -- $1,556
Adjustments to Rent Incentives: None
Utilities in Rent: Heat Fuel: Electric Heat: Cooking: Wtr/Swr: Hot Water: Electricity: Trash:
VA177-002107Windover Villas © 2018 Real Property Research Group, Inc. (1) Effective Rent is Published Rent, net of concessions and assumes that water, sewer and trash is included in rent (2) Published Rent is rent as quoted by management.