NATATORIUM FEASIBILITY STUDY for the Fredericksburg, Spotsylvania County, Regional Area
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NATATORIUM FEASIBILITY STUDY for the Fredericksburg, Spotsylvania County, Regional Area July 22, 2021 July 22, 2021 Mr. Patrick Catullo Athletic Director University of Mary Washington 1301 College Avenue FredericksBurg, Virginia 22401 Dear Mr. Catullo: Conventions, Sports & Leisure International (CSL), in conjunction with CHA Consulting, Inc. (CHA) and M.A. + Associates (MA+A), has completed a report summarizing the results of a Natatorium Analysis and FeasiBility Study for the FredericksBurg/ Spotsylvania Regional Area and the University of Mary Washington. The purpose of the analysis is to assist UMW, the City of FredericksBurg, Spotsylvania County and other community stakeholders determine the market, financial and economic feasiBility of a potential new natatorium to support academic, public and private members of the greater regional area. The analysis presented in this report is based on estimates, assumptions and other information developed from industry research, data and certain assumptions provided by stakeholders, discussions with industry participants, and analysis of competitive/comparaBle facilities and communities. The sources of information, the methods employed, and the basis of significant estimates and assumptions are stated in this report. Some assumptions inevitaBly will not materialize and unanticipated events and circumstances may occur. Therefore, actual results achieved will vary from those descriBed and the variations may be material. The information contained in this report is based on estimates, assumptions and other information developed from research of the market, industry trends and comparaBle project benchmarking, interviews with stakeholders and other local individuals, including information and assumptions provided by the aforementioned stakeholders. The analysis and findings considered the initial years of facility operation, including an anticipated COVID-19 post-pandemic recovery period. All information provided to us by the stakeholders was not audited or verified and was assumed to be correct. Because procedures were limited, we express no opinion or assurances of any kind on the achievability of any projected information contained herein and this report should not be relied upon for that purpose. Furthermore, there will be differences between projected and actual results. This is because events and circumstances frequently do not occur as expected, and those differences may be material. We sincerely appreciate the opportunity to assist you with this project and would be pleased to be of further assistance in the interpretation and application of the study’s findings. Very truly yours, CSL International Conventions, Sports & Leisure International, LLC 520 Nicollet Mall, Suite 520, Minneapolis, Minnesota 55402 ● 612.294.2000 ● www.cslintl.com TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary 4 1. Background & Situation 10 2. Local Market Conditions 12 3. Comparable Facilities 20 4. Industry Trends 27 5. Market Demand & Program 32 6. Cost / Benefit Analysis 55 Appendix A: Concept Construction Cost Detail Appendix B: Utilization, Financial & Economic Model TC EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ES ES EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Introduction & Background Conventions, Sports & Leisure International (CSL), in conjunction with CHA Consulting, Inc. (CHA) and M.A. + Associates (MA+A), is pleased to present this report summarizing the results of a Natatorium Analysis and FeasiBility Study for the FredericksBurg/ Spotsylvania Regional Area and the University of Mary Washington (UMW). The purpose of this analysis is to assist UMW, the City of FredericksBurg, Spotsylvania County and other community stakeholders determine the market, financial and economic feasiBility of a potential new natatorium to support academic, public and private members of the greater regional area. The attached report outlines the findings associated with the analysis. The full report should be reviewed in its entirety to gain an understanding of analysis methods, limitations and implications. In 2016, Stafford County opened The Rouse Center, a 76,000-square foot facility offering a 50-meter competition pool with movaBle bulkhead and seating for over 800 spectators, a 25-yard recreation pool, a warm-water wellness pool, a group exercise studio, fitness floor, a full-size basketball court and a full-service café. Community response has been favoraBle to the Rouse Center and various regional high schools, cluB and the UMW swimming program have experienced difficulties in reserving pool time, suggesting that additional similar resources may be required to more fully meet the demand of the community. The study process consisted of detailed research and analysis, including a comprehensive set of market-specific information derived from the following: • PROJECT EXPERIENCE: Experience garnered through more than 1,000 sports, recreation, aquatic, hospitality and other event facility planning and benchmarking projects in communities of all sizes throughout the country. • INTERVIEWS & OUTREACH: Telephone and video conference interviews and meetings with individuals representing UMW, City and County stakeholders, private swim cluBs, area schools, local hoteliers and business leaders and other local and non-local meet, camp and/or clinic producers. • BENCHMARKING: Research and analysis of facility data and interviews conducted with 30 competitive/regional and/or comparaBle aquatic facilities. Market Opportunity & Demand The potential development of a new Natatorium in FredericksBurg/Spotsylvania County has the opportunity to better accommodate demand among FredericksBurg and Spotsylvania County residents and UMW athletes, students and staff, while also creating an opportunity to attract larger regional and national meets and other sports tourism activity. While the Rouse Center, Goolrick Natatorium and other YMCA aquatic facilities provide opportunities for both youth and adult local and non-local events, various local and regional swimming programs have noted difficulties in reserving pool times at the one 50-meter competition pool in the area (Rouse Center) and have struggled to attract larger invitational meets, suggesting that additional aquatic facility resources may be required to more fully meet the demand of the community. Based on the results of the research and analysis conducted, key market conclusions include the following: • The results of the market analysis, including outreach and interviews with stakeholders and user groups, suggest that strong unmet demand exists among local and non-local segments for a new state-of-the-industry Natatorium in the FredericksBurg / Spotsylvania County area. • Existing aquatic facilities are insufficient to accommodate local demand and non-local demand. Additionally, existing FredericksBurg and Spotsylvania County pools are not state-of-the-industry and are at a competitive disadvantage in terms of hosting and attracting regional and/or national meets. There is not presently a modern, 50-meter Olympic pool to accommodate competitive meets and other local and non-local demand. • Local high school and cluB programs have historically consumed a significant amount of lane hours at area YMCA facilities. However, the YMCA’s primary focus in on providing facility access to members, which can limit access to outside rentals. Conversations with local high school and cluB programs indicated that there is increasing strain on access for lane hours for practices and full day rental opportunities to host invitational and some dual meets. • The Rouse Center in Stafford is the greater area’s primary 50M aquatic center facility. It is highly-utilized and is not able to sufficiently accommodate demand from non-Stafford groups (i.e., groups and residents from FredericksBurg and Spotsylvania County). Conversations with meet organizers indicated that the Rouse Center has committed to certain dates/weekends for meets and cannot accommodate all of the demand for signature invitational, conference, sectional and/or state meets. • A new state-of-the-industry natatorium could suBstantially-better serve UMW Varsity Swimming and Campus Rec needs, along with the needs of local area swim cluBs and aquatics-based recreation, leisure, and wellness needs of FredericksBurg and Spotsylvania County residents. Additionally, a new natatorium would drive new tourism and generate new economic impact in the local area through the attraction of competitive meets and related local spending. Natatorium Feasibility StuDy for the FreDericksburg / Spotsylvania County Regional Area ● Page 5 ES EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Ownership, Governance, Management & Scheduling Based on funding capacity and to facilitate a regionally-inclusive approach, it is believed that the proposed new Natatorium would be best served to be under public-sector ownership via Spotsylvania County and privately-managed under lease or management agreement by a qualified third-party. Spotsylvania County would outline policies, informed by aims and goals for operating the venue. To refine these policies and ensure that they are being appropriately implemented by the private management firm, it is recommended that the County create a Facility Oversight Board populated by appointed facility and community stakeholders. The Facility Oversight Board would be best positioned to manage, coordinate and ensure equitaBle scheduling and use of the Natatorium. Further detail concerning these recommendations are provided later in the report. Supportable Facility Concept Based on the results of the market analysis, a market