Market Feasibility Analysis Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II Fredericksburg, Virginia Prepared for: Orchard Development Project #17-5668 Site Inspection: January 11, 2018 Effective Date: January 11, 2018 Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II | Executive Summary TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................... VII 1. INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................1 A. Overview of Subject.........................................................................................................................................1 B. Purpose............................................................................................................................................................1 C. Format of Report .............................................................................................................................................2 D. Client, Intended User, and Intended Use ........................................................................................................2 E. Applicable Requirements ................................................................................................................................2 F. Scope of Work .................................................................................................................................................2 G. Report Limitations ...........................................................................................................................................2 2. PROJECT DESCRIPTION ................................................................................................3 A. Project Overview .............................................................................................................................................3 B. Project Type and Target Market......................................................................................................................3 C. Building Types and Placement.........................................................................................................................3 D. Detailed Project Description............................................................................................................................4 1. Project Description..................................................................................................................................4 3. SITE AND NEIGHBORHOOD ANALYSIS..........................................................................6 A. Site Analysis.....................................................................................................................................................6 1. Site Location............................................................................................................................................6 2. Size, Shape, and Topography ..................................................................................................................6 3. General Description of Land Uses Surrounding the Subject Site ............................................................6 4. Specific Identification of Land Uses Surrounding the Subject Site .........................................................9 B. Neighborhood Analysis..................................................................................................................................11 1. Neighborhood Investment and Planning Activities ..............................................................................11 2. Public Safety..........................................................................................................................................12 C. Site Visibility and Accessibility.......................................................................................................................13 1. Visibility.................................................................................................................................................13 2. Vehicular Access....................................................................................................................................13 3. Availability of Public Transit..................................................................................................................13 4. Pedestrian Access .................................................................................................................................13 5. Accessibility Improvements under Construction and Planned .............................................................13 D. Residential Support Network ........................................................................................................................14 1. Key Facilities and Services near the Subject Sites.................................................................................14 1. Essential Services ..................................................................................................................................15 2. Commercial Goods and Services...........................................................................................................17 3. Other Facilities and Features ................................................................................................................18 4. ECONOMIC CONTEXT ................................................................................................19 A. Introduction...................................................................................................................................................19 B. Labor Force, Resident Employment, and Unemployment ............................................................................19 C. Commutation Patterns ..................................................................................................................................19 D. County At-Place Employment........................................................................................................................20 1. Trends in Total At-Place Employment...................................................................................................20 2. At-Place Employment by Industry Sector .............................................................................................21 3. Major Employers...................................................................................................................................23 4. Wage Trends .........................................................................................................................................23 5. HOUSING MARKET AREA...........................................................................................25 A. Introduction...................................................................................................................................................25 B. Delineation of Market Area...........................................................................................................................25 Page ii Orchard Ridge at Jackson Village II | Executive Summary 6. DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS .........................................................................................27 A. Introduction and Methodology .....................................................................................................................27 B. Trends in Population and Households...........................................................................................................27 1. Recent Past Trends ...............................................................................................................................27 2. Estimated and Projected Trends...........................................................................................................27 3. Building Permit Trends..........................................................................................................................28 C. Demographic Characteristics.........................................................................................................................29 1. Age Distribution and Household Type ..................................................................................................29 2. Renter Household Characteristics.........................................................................................................30 3. Income Characteristics..........................................................................................................................32 4. Cost-Burdened Renter Households.......................................................................................................33 7. COMPETITIVE HOUSING ANALYSIS ............................................................................35 A. Introduction and Sources of Information......................................................................................................35 B. Market Area Housing Stock ...........................................................................................................................35 1. Overview of Housing Stock ...................................................................................................................35 C. Survey of General Occupancy Rental Communities ......................................................................................36 1. Introduction to the Rental