Presidential Politics in

Dr. Lyke Thompson, Dr. Marjorie Sarbaugh-Thompson, and Jason Hardacre Wayne State University Fall 2004

1 Model of the major influences that decide the winner of the Presidential election in Michigan

History

Economic Climate

R epositioning of Political Parties Legal Context

Presidential Election Ground Campaign Turnout

M oney Media

C urrent Events 2 Presidential Elections

3 Share80% of popular vote among political parties in Michigan, 1892-2000 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Percentage of Vote of Percentage 10% 0%

0 1892 2 1896190 1904 4 1908 191 1916 28 6 1920192 19 40 8 1932193 19 Year52 0 Democrats 1944 194 19 956 64 2 1 196 19 968 76 1 197 19 980 Republicans88 1 198419 992 00 Others1 199620 Note: In 1912, Theodore Roosevelt ran as a member of the Bull Moose Party and won a majority of the Michigan popular vote. He ran as a 4 Republican in 1904. Source: www.uselectionatlas.org 1988 U.S. Presidential Election Results Michigan

George H. W. Bush (R) Michael S. Dukakis (D)

Vote Tally

Candidate Number of Votes Percentage of Total Vote

George H. W. Bush (R) 1,965,486 53.57%

Michael S. Dukakis (D) 1,675,783 45.67%

Others 27,894 0.76%

Total 3,669,163 100.00%

Note: The darker the shade of the color, the larger the percentage of the vote the candidate received. 5 Graphic courtesy of www.uselectionatlas.org 1992 U.S. Presidential Election Results Michigan

George H. W. Bush (R) William J. Clinton (D)

Vote Tally

Candidate Number of Votes Percentage of Total Vote

George H. W. Bush (R) 1,554,940 36.38%

William J. Clinton (D) 1,871,182 43.77%

H. Ross Perot (I) 824,813 19.30%

Others 23,738 0.55%

Total 4,274,673 100.00%

Note: The darker the shade of the color, the larger the percentage of the vote the candidate received. 6 Graphic courtesy of www.uselectionatlas.org 1996 U.S. Presidential Election Results Michigan

William J. Clinton (D) Robert J. Dole (R)

Vote Tally

Candidate Number of Votes Percentage of Total Vote

William J. Clinton (D) 1,989,653 51.69%

Robert J. Dole (R) 1,481,212 38.48%

H. Ross Perot (RF) 336,670 8.75%

Others 41,309 1.08%

Total 3,848,844 100.00%

Note: The darker the shade of the color, the larger the percentage of the vote the candidate received. 7 Graphic courtesy of www.uselectionatlas.org 2000 U.S. Presidential Election Results Michigan

Albert A. Gore, Jr. (D) George W. Bush (R)

Vote Tally

Candidate Number of Votes Percentage of Total Vote

Albert A. Gore, Jr. (D) 2,170,418 51.28%

George W. Bush (R) 1,953,139 46.14%

Others 109,154 2.58%

Total 4,232,711 100.00%

Note: The darker the shade of the color, the larger the percentage of the vote the candidate received. 8 Graphic courtesy of www.uselectionatlas.org Economic Climate of Michigan

9 Total Non-farm Employees in Michigan, 4,650January 2001 – September 2004 4,600 4,550 4,500 4,450 4,400 4,350 Number (inNumber thousands) 4,300

001 -2 01 ry -2001 01 a l -20 002 2 y -2 0 anu Apri Jul er-20 ry -2002 3 J ob -20 2002 00 ct y r- -2 O anua April Jul e ry -2003 J ob il 4 ct r-2003 Month-YearApr July-2003e -200 O Janua ril uly-2004 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Octob Ap J January-2004 10 Unemployment Rate in Michigan, by County

11 Source: Michigan Department of Labor and Economic Growth Unemployment Rate, Michigan v. National 8.0% January 2001 to September 2004 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% Michigan 5.0% National 4.5% Percentage 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 0 2 3 4 0 1 02 03 04 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 20 20 2 0 ly-2 ly-2 ly- ary-200 uly-200 ry-20 ry- ry- J a y-20 Ju ua Ju ua Ju anu nu July-200 ar n n J Ja nu Ja Ja Ja Time

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 12 Unemployed Citizens in Michigan, Average Number of Weeks, January 2001 – August 2004

20

18

16

14

12 Average Number of Weeks of Average Number 10 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Month/Year

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 13 Repositioning of Political Parties in Michigan

14 • Up to the early 1980s, the political parties, including the Republicans, had conservative, moderate, and liberal factions. • With the election of John Engler, a conservative Republican, in 1990 the Michigan Republican Party moved further and further to the right. The Democrats did move somewhat to the right, but not as much. • Therefore, Al Gore, a Democrat, won the Republican stronghold of Oakland County because its citizens did not necessarily shift with the Republican Party. • In addition, Jennifer Granholm defeated Dick Posthumus for the ’s race in 2002. 15 Ground Campaign in Michigan and Turnout

16 Number of Registered Voters in Michigan, 2000, 2002, 2004 7,100,000

7,050,000

7,000,000

6,950,000

6,900,000

6,850,000 Number 6,800,000

6,750,000

6,700,000

6,650,000 2000(a) 2002(b) 2004(c) Year

Notes: (a) Data from October, 10, 2000; (b) Data from October 07, 2002; (c) Data from September 24, 2002 as cited in the Free Press. 17 Source: Michigan Department of State Voter Registration and Election Turnout Statistics for Michigan General Elections for President, 1948-2000 Voting Age Year Number Voting Number Registered Population (VAP) Turnout (% of VAP) 1948 2,109,609 Not Available 4,041,000 52.2% 1952 2,798,592 Not Available 4,193,000 66.7% 1956 3,080,468 3,128,573 4,538,000 67.9% 1960 3,318,097 3,454,804 4,564,000 72.7% 1964 3,203,102 3,351,730 4,658,000 68.8% 1968 3,306,250 4,022,378 4,953,000 66.8% 1972 3,490,325 4,762,764a 5,874,000b 59.4% 1976 3,722,384 5,202,379c 6,268,000 59.4% 1980 3,978,647 5,725,713 6,510,000 61.1% 1984 3,884,854 5,888,808 6,577,000 59.1% 1988 3,745,751 5,952,513 6,791,000 55.2% 1992 4,341,909 6,147,083 6,947,000 62.5% 1996 3,912,261 6,677,079d 7,072,000 55.3% 2000 4,279,299 6,859,332 7,358,000 58.2% a"The large increase in the number of registered voters in the state from 1970 to 1972 was the result of a March 1972 ruling which declared that it was unconstitutional to purge the registration of a voter who had not voted over a period of two years as Michigan law then required. In effect, this compelled clerks to reinstate the registrations of 'non-voters' who had been purged from the registration since 1968." b"The large increase in the state's voting age population from 1970 to 1972 was the result of the 26th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution which lowered the minimum voting age from 21 to 18." c"Two events occurred in 1975 which affected the 1976 registration total: (1) the Secretary of State Branch Officer Voter Registration program was put into effect in October and (2) provisions allowing for the creation of 'inactive' voter registration files were put into effect. Registration totals listed for 1976 to 1984 reflect only those registrations held in 4-year 'active' files." d"The National Voter Registration Act, effective January 1, 1995, eliminated the initiation of any voter registration cancellations for inactivity and introduced several new voter registration programs in the state, including mail-in registration." Source: Michigan Manual, 1948-2000 18 Voter Turnout for Presidential Elections in Michigan, 1948-2000 (As a Percentage of Voter Age Population)

75%

70% 65% 60%

55% Percentage 50%

45%

0 40% 0 0 92 0 2 8 84 9 2 7 9 9 1 1996 2 9 1 1 1988 8 5 1 1976 4 9 1960 1964 1968 19 1 1956 Year

Source: Michigan Manual, 2001-2002 19 Voter Turnout in Wayne County, 2000 General Election

20 Voter Turnout in Detroit, 2000 General Election

21 Money / Campaign Finances

22 2004 Michigan Campaign Finance Report, Broadcast Television, By Region Media Market

Candidate/Campaign Detroit Grand Rapids/Kalamazoo Lansing Flint/Tri-Cities Total

Bush/Cheney 2004 $5,512,200 $3,153,820 $2,054,000 $1,614,400 $1,817,002 $14,151,422

Pro-Bush 527s* Not Available $279,365 $67,725 $57,730 $150,455 $555,275

Total - Bush/allies $5,512,200 $3,433,185 $2,121,725 $1,672,130 $1,967,457 $14,706,697

Kerry/Edwards 2004 $6,597,000 $3,456,205 $2,480,075 $2,038,335 $1,704,794 $16,276,409

Pro-Kerry 527s* $1,472,995 $478,480 $420,000 $357,610 $157,060 $2,886,145

Total - Kerry/allies $8,069,995 $3,934,685 $2,900,075 $2,395,945 $1,861,854 $19,162,554

Total - All $13,582,195 $7,367,870 $5,021,800 $4,068,075 $3,829,311 $33,869,251

*527s are advocacy groups. Note: Through October 25, 2004. Cable television not included.

Source: Michigan Campaign Finance Network

23 Media

• Bias in coverage – Sinclair Broadcasting – Errors—CBS • Endorsements •Ad Wars

24 Current Events

25 Wild Card Possibilities • Debates • Changes in the Iraq Situation •Osama – Capture – Attacks • Employment and Unemployment Numbers • Gaffes and Leaks • Catastrophes • Oil price or Stock Market changes • Defections by Prominent Party Members • Media 26 The Current Outlook

The Horse Race

27 Likely voters’ choice for President in Michigan - 2004

Bush (R) Kerry (D) Nader (I) Undecided

60%

50%

40%

30%

Percentage 20%

10%

0%

f ()b ()d )b )c ) ) ()b ()b )a ) ) ()e ) )b )a 6 9 4(b 6(a 8 4 0(b 1 /1 /1 /1 /2 /1 /2 /2 8/28( /1 0/22( 0/26( 08 08 0 09 09 09 10 10 10 1 1 ------8 8 13 2 14 26 19 /1 / /1 / / /18 - 10/19(e/1 / 0 9 0 0 1 08 08/17 - 08/26 - 08/26 -0 08/29( 09 09 10/12 - 10/15 - 10/18(1 1 10 10/24 - 10/26 - 10/29( Dates of polls (2004)

Sources: (a) Mason-Dixon Polling and Research for Knight Ridder and MSNBC; (b) Strategic Vision (R); (c) Lake Snell Perry and Associates for America Coming Together (D); (d) American Research Group Poll; (e) Detroit News/Mitchell Poll; (f) EPIC/MRA 28 Likely voters’ choice for President, National v. Michigan, June 2004 – October 2004

Bush (National)

60.0% Bush (Michigan) 50.0%

40.0% Kerry (National)

30.0% Kerry (Michigan)

Percentage 20.0%

10.0% Nader (National)

0.0% er Nader (Michigan) b er e uly J cto Jun temb O August p Others/Undecided (National) Se

Month (2004) Others/Undecided (Michigan)

Note: Figures are an average compiled from several polls. Sources: Democracy Corps Poll (D); Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Poll; ABC News/Washington Post Tracking Poll; American Research Group 29 Poll; CBS News/NY Times Poll; Mason-Dixon Polling and Research for Knight Ridder and MSNBC; Strategic Vision (R); Lake Snell Perry and Associates for America Coming Together (D); Detroit News/Mitchell Poll; Newsweek; Time; International Communications Research (ICR). Percent of likely voters choosing John Kerry (D) for President, National v. Michigan, June 2004 – October 2004

50.0% 49.0% 48.0% 47.0% 46.0% Kerry (National) 45.0% 44.0% Kerry (Michigan) 43.0% Percentage 42.0% 41.0% 40.0%

e ly r n u e u J b ber J m to August te c p O Se Month (2004)

Note: Figures are an average compiled from several polls. Sources: Democracy Corps Poll (D); Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Poll; ABC News/Washington Post Tracking Poll; American Research Group 30 Poll; CBS News/NY Times Poll; Mason-Dixon Polling and Research for Knight Ridder and MSNBC; Strategic Vision (R); Lake Snell Perry and Associates for America Coming Together (D); Detroit News/Mitchell Poll; Newsweek; Time; International Communications Research (ICR). Percent of likely voters choosing George W. Bush (R) for President, National v. Michigan, June 2004 – October 2004

50.0% 48.0% 46.0% 44.0% Bush (National) 42.0% Bush (Michigan) 40.0% Percentage 38.0% 36.0%

ly ust er June Ju g b Au tem October Sep Month

Note: Figures are an average compiled from several polls. Sources: Democracy Corps Poll (D); Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Poll; ABC News/Washington Post Tracking Poll; American Research Group 31 Poll; CBS News/NY Times Poll; Mason-Dixon Polling and Research for Knight Ridder and MSNBC; Strategic Vision (R); Lake Snell Perry and Associates for America Coming Together (D); Detroit News/Mitchell Poll; Newsweek; Time; International Communications Research (ICR).