Presidential Politics in Michigan Dr. Lyke Thompson, Dr. Marjorie Sarbaugh-Thompson, and Jason Hardacre Wayne State University Fall 2004 1 Model of the major influences that decide the winner of the Presidential election in Michigan History Economic Climate R epositioning of Political Parties Legal Context Presidential Election Ground Campaign Turnout M oney Media C urrent Events 2 History of Michigan Presidential Elections 3 Share of popular vote among political parties in Michigan, 1892-2000 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Percentage of Vote 20% 10% 0% 1892 Note: In 1912, Theodore Roosevelt ran as a member of the Bull Moose Party and won a majority of the Michigan popular vote. He r Republican in 1904. 1896 Source: www.uselectionatlas.org 1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 Year 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 Democrats1992 Republicans1996 Others 2000 an as a 4 1988 U.S. Presidential Election Results Michigan George H. W. Bush (R) Michael S. Dukakis (D) Vote Tally Candidate Number of Votes Percentage of Total Vote George H. W. Bush (R) 1,965,486 53.57% Michael S. Dukakis (D) 1,675,783 45.67% Others 27,894 0.76% Total 3,669,163 100.00% Note: The darker the shade of the color, the larger the percentage of the vote the candidate received. 5 Graphic courtesy of www.uselectionatlas.org 1992 U.S. Presidential Election Results Michigan George H. W. Bush (R) William J. Clinton (D) Vote Tally Candidate Number of Votes Percentage of Total Vote George H. W. Bush (R) 1,554,940 36.38% William J. Clinton (D) 1,871,182 43.77% H. Ross Perot (I) 824,813 19.30% Others 23,738 0.55% Total 4,274,673 100.00% Note: The darker the shade of the color, the larger the percentage of the vote the candidate received. 6 Graphic courtesy of www.uselectionatlas.org 1996 U.S. Presidential Election Results Michigan William J. Clinton (D) Robert J. Dole (R) Vote Tally Candidate Number of Votes Percentage of Total Vote William J. Clinton (D) 1,989,653 51.69% Robert J. Dole (R) 1,481,212 38.48% H. Ross Perot (RF) 336,670 8.75% Others 41,309 1.08% Total 3,848,844 100.00% Note: The darker the shade of the color, the larger the percentage of the vote the candidate received. 7 Graphic courtesy of www.uselectionatlas.org 2000 U.S. Presidential Election Results Michigan Albert A. Gore, Jr. (D) George W. Bush (R) Vote Tally Candidate Number of Votes Percentage of Total Vote Albert A. Gore, Jr. (D) 2,170,418 51.28% George W. Bush (R) 1,953,139 46.14% Others 109,154 2.58% Total 4,232,711 100.00% Note: The darker the shade of the color, the larger the percentage of the vote the candidate received. 8 Graphic courtesy of www.uselectionatlas.org Economic Climate of Michigan 9 Total Non-farm Employees in Michigan, January 2001 – September 2004 4,650 4,600 4,550 4,500 Number (in thousands)4,450 4,400 4,350 4,300 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsJanuary-2001 April-2001 July-2001 October-2001 January-2002 April-2002 July-2002 October-2002 January-2003 April-2003 Month-Year July-2003 October-2003 January-2004 April-2004 July-2004 10 Unemployment Rate in Michigan, by County 11 Source: Michigan Department of Labor and Economic Growth Unemployment Rate, Michigan v. National 8.0% 7.5% January 2001 to September 2004 7.0% 6.5% Percentage 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% January-2000 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics July-2000 January-2001 July-2001 January-2002 July-2002 January-2003 Time July-2003 January-2004 Michigan National July-2004 12 Unemployed Citizens in Michigan, Average Number of Weeks, January 2001 – August 2004 20 18 16 14 12 Average Number of Weeks of Average Number 10 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Month/Year Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 13 Repositioning of Political Parties in Michigan 14 • Up to the early 1980s, the political parties, including the Republicans, had conservative, moderate, and liberal factions. • With the election of John Engler, a conservative Republican, in 1990 the Michigan Republican Party moved further and further to the right. The Democrats did move somewhat to the right, but not as much. • Therefore, Al Gore, a Democrat, won the Republican stronghold of Oakland County because its citizens did not necessarily shift with the Republican Party. • In addition, Jennifer Granholm defeated Dick Posthumus for the Governor’s race in 2002. 15 Ground Campaign in Michigan and Turnout 16 Number of Registered Voters in Michigan, 2000, 2002, 2004 7,100,000 7,050,000 7,000,000 6,950,000 6,900,000 6,850,000 Number 6,800,000 6,750,000 6,700,000 6,650,000 2000(a) 2002(b) 2004(c) Year Notes: (a) Data from October, 10, 2000; (b) Data from October 07, 2002; (c) Data from September 24, 2002 as cited in the Detroit Free Press. 17 Source: Michigan Department of State Voter Registration and Election Turnout Statistics for Michigan General Elections for President, 1948-2000 Voting Age Year Number Voting Number Registered Population (VAP) Turnout (% of VAP) 1948 2,109,609 Not Available 4,041,000 52.2% 1952 2,798,592 Not Available 4,193,000 66.7% 1956 3,080,468 3,128,573 4,538,000 67.9% 1960 3,318,097 3,454,804 4,564,000 72.7% 1964 3,203,102 3,351,730 4,658,000 68.8% 1968 3,306,250 4,022,378 4,953,000 66.8% 1972 3,490,325 4,762,764a 5,874,000b 59.4% 1976 3,722,384 5,202,379c 6,268,000 59.4% 1980 3,978,647 5,725,713 6,510,000 61.1% 1984 3,884,854 5,888,808 6,577,000 59.1% 1988 3,745,751 5,952,513 6,791,000 55.2% 1992 4,341,909 6,147,083 6,947,000 62.5% 1996 3,912,261 6,677,079d 7,072,000 55.3% 2000 4,279,299 6,859,332 7,358,000 58.2% a"The large increase in the number of registered voters in the state from 1970 to 1972 was the result of a March 1972 Michigan Supreme Court ruling which declared that it was unconstitutional to purge the registration of a voter who had not voted over a period of two years as Michigan law then required. In effect, this compelled clerks to reinstate the registrations of 'non-voters' who had been purged from the registration since 1968." b"The large increase in the state's voting age population from 1970 to 1972 was the result of the 26th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution which lowered the minimum voting age from 21 to 18." c"Two events occurred in 1975 which affected the 1976 registration total: (1) the Secretary of State Branch Officer Voter Registration program was put into effect in October and (2) provisions allowing for the creation of 'inactive' voter registration files were put into effect. Registration totals listed for 1976 to 1984 reflect only those registrations held in 4-year 'active' files." d"The National Voter Registration Act, effective January 1, 1995, eliminated the initiation of any voter registration cancellations for inactivity and introduced several new voter registration programs in the state, including mail-in registration." Source: Michigan Manual, 1948-2000 18 Voter Turnout for Presidential 75% (As a Percentage of Voter Age Population) 70% 65% 60% 55% Percentage 50% Elections in Michigan, 1948-2000 45% 40% Source: Michigan Manual, 2001-20021948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 Year 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 19 Voter Turnout in Wayne County, 2000 General Election 20 Voter Turnout in Detroit, 2000 General Election 21 Money / Campaign Finances 22 2004 Michigan Campaign Finance Report, Broadcast Television, By Region Media Market Candidate/Campaign Detroit Grand Rapids/Kalamazoo Lansing Flint/Tri-Cities Northern Michigan Total Bush/Cheney 2004 $5,512,200 $3,153,820 $2,054,000 $1,614,400 $1,817,002 $14,151,422 Pro-Bush 527s* Not Available $279,365 $67,725 $57,730 $150,455 $555,275 Total - Bush/allies $5,512,200 $3,433,185 $2,121,725 $1,672,130 $1,967,457 $14,706,697 Kerry/Edwards 2004 $6,597,000 $3,456,205 $2,480,075 $2,038,335 $1,704,794 $16,276,409 Pro-Kerry 527s* $1,472,995 $478,480 $420,000 $357,610 $157,060 $2,886,145 Total - Kerry/allies $8,069,995 $3,934,685 $2,900,075 $2,395,945 $1,861,854 $19,162,554 Total - All $13,582,195 $7,367,870 $5,021,800 $4,068,075 $3,829,311 $33,869,251 *527s are advocacy groups. Note: Through October 25, 2004. Cable television not included. Source: Michigan Campaign Finance Network 23 Media • Bias in coverage – Sinclair Broadcasting – Errors—CBS • Endorsements •Ad Wars 24 Current Events 25 Wild Card Possibilities • Debates • Changes in the Iraq Situation •Osama – Capture – Attacks • Employment and Unemployment Numbers • Gaffes and Leaks • Catastrophes • Oil price or Stock Market changes • Defections by Prominent Party Members • Media 26 The Current Outlook The Horse Race 27 Likely voters’ Bush (R) 60% 50% choice for President in Michigan - 2004 40% Percentage30% 20% Kerry (D) 10% 0% 08/13 - 08/16(b) Sources: (a) Mason-Dixon Polling and Resear Perry and Associates for America Coming To Nader (I) (f) EPIC/MRA 08/17 - 08/19(d) 08/26 - 08/28(b) 08/26 - 08/29(c) 09/12 - 09/14(b) 09/14 - 09/16(a) Undecided 09/26 - 09/28(b) ch for Knight Ridde gether (D); (d) American Research Gro Dates 10/12of polls (2004)- 10/14(b) 10/15 - 10/18(a) r and MSNBC; (b) Strategic10/18 Vision - (R);10/19(e (c) Lake Snell) 10/18 - 10/20(b) 10/19 - 10/21(e) up Poll; (e) Detroit News/Mitchell Poll; 10/18 - 10/22(f) 10/24 - 10/26(b) 10/26 - 10/29(a) 28 Likely voters’ choice for President, National v.