20 CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISPLACEMENT FMR31 FMR31 Island evacuation Ilan Kelman

Global environmental change is expected to have particular be properly planned. Or would it be impact on islands around the world. easier to convince people to go only after a major disaster? Then they risk Islanders from Vanuatu and the Bay some could lose the food supply on loss of life and loss of possessions of Bengal have already been forced which they have relied. Similarly, (including cultural/community to move as a result of sea-level rise for freshwater resources – often artefacts). The main disadvantage while many island communities in already in limited supply on islands with long-term planning is that Alaska – in the face of fierce storms – many places will experience drier an extreme event could strike at and rapid coastal erosion – are conditions; even if more tropical any time. A combination of both contemplating a move inland. Five storms bring more water, the damage solutions could be sought, perhaps main climate change-related factors, wrought by them could offset the planning to leave quickly as soon as some interlinked, threaten the benefits of increased water supply. an extreme event threatens or strikes. viability of living on Sea wall some islands, especially in western low-lying atolls: sea- Tongatapu, level rise, increased Tonga. severity and frequency of storms, changes to marine resources, increasing acidity of oceans and changes to freshwater resources.

Examples of entire island countries which are threatened by sea- level rise are Kiribati, the Maldives and Tuvalu. Additionally, if ice sheets collapse, much of their land could end up under water. With the expectation of tropical cyclone tracks Ilan Kelman changing while storms might become more frequent and more severe, islands Depending on the exact impacts After the timing of migration has which had previously experienced on specific islands, permanent been determined – or left to extreme few extreme events might have to displacement may be the only events to decide – the second decision deal with them more regularly. viable long-term option. Severe is where people should go in order environmental change has led to create a new community. Two Chemical, rather than to islander displacement in the options exist. They could abandon geomorphological changes, could past. Approximately 700 years their identity and their community also reduce low-lying islands’ ago, sea-level fall and regional and integrate elsewhere. The habitability. Oceanic absorption changes in the Pacific climate 12,000 Tuvaluans still on Tuvalu, of atmospheric carbon dioxide forced many Pacific islanders to for example, could easily disperse is leading to ocean acidification,1 abandon their settlements. among the millions of Sydney, Tokyo, damaging coral reefs which in Los Angeles or other large cities. turn exposes islands to increased Decision making wave energy while changing the If an island community decides Rather than losing a culture, nature of near-shore fisheries. that displacement or evacuation of language and identity, however, an entire island is an appropriate island communities could instead For marine resources, the possible option, the first decision is the be re-created. Resettlement on land impacts are uncertain. In some timing of that migration. (especially islands) similar to, but places, numbers might decline and more secure than, their current species might become extinct but Should the evacuation happen as location would be preferable but many others could migrate. Some soon as possible, before severe might not be feasible because islands might gain more plentiful impacts of environmental changes are most low-lying areas would fish or other marine resources, while felt? This would enable migration to suffer similar fates as the islands FMR31 FMR31 CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISPLACEMENT 21

being evacuated. As well, many rather than re-created, how do the been many island evacuations, for potential island candidates for answers to these questions change? example, related to volcanic activity. re-creating island communities However, there are differences are protected as environmental, Security questions also emerge between evacuation because of tourist and/or scientific havens – regarding locations where islanders volcanic activity and evacuation or are uninhabitable due to their are resettled. Could a country claim as a result of global environmental size or resource constraints. a security threat from potential change. Most islanders evacuated future sovereignty demands if an after a volcano starts erupting expect Such resettlement could also require entire island country population is the evacuation to be temporary; in another state to cede territory. For settled there? Could resettlement many cases, they return home even the Pacific region, Australia and be used to reduce enmity and to earlier than recommended. For global New Zealand are usually suggested galvanise international cooperation environmental change, many islands as the most likely candidates to in solving environmental issues? are expected to experience such severe provide land. Other possibilities (Studies in disaster diplomacy that and irreversible changes that return could be Indonesia, the Philippines, have investigated this last point would not be possible for centuries the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, conclude that such opportunities to come. Temporary displacement the US or Japan. Another option are usually squandered.2) is very different from leaving one’s would be to create new land land, home and identity for ever. We (perhaps through land reclamation) These issues are not unique to need to learn from mistakes made in but this would involve legal islands. Many coastal settlements the past, especially regarding who ramifications – such as delineating could suffer similar displacement makes decisions and who pays. the new state’s territorial waters. for similar reasons. Although non- island coastal settlements have an There is time now to draw on the Sovereignty ‘inland’ to which they can move, experience of previous environ- Whether existing land or new some islands also have that option, mentally induced displacement, both land is used for resettlement, more especially larger hilly islands such as island and non-island. Precautionary decisions have to be made concerning Puerto Rico and Fiji’s largest island, planning now would be prudent, levels of sovereignty or autonomy. Viti Levu. Yet that would still result rather than reacting after it is too late. Should sovereign states and non- in significant changes, both for the sovereign territories be entirely re- people who must move and for the Ilan Kelman (ilan_kelman@ created or should these governance people already living ‘inland’. hotmail.com) works for the Center regimes be adjusted? There are for International Climate and different options, including: Learning from experience Environmental Research, Oslo Island evacuation due to global (CICERO www.cicero.uio.no). ■■ joint access to an island’s environmental change may be 1. www.royalsoc.ac.uk/document.asp?id=3249 resources, as is the case of unique in living memory but island 2. www.disasterdiplomacy.org Svalbard in the Arctic evacuation due to environmental change is not new. There have ■■ a level of autonomy involving parallel and complementary justice systems, such as those for indigenous people in Resources on climate change and displacement Canada and New Zealand A new Resource Summary on climate change and displacement is now online at: www.forcedmigration.org/browse/thematic/climate-change/ ■■ a level of autonomy involving, for example, parallel currency systems. The summary, produced Once a governance model is by Forced approved by all concerned parties, Migration Online many practical and ethical questions (of the Refugee remain. Who pays for the move and Studies Centre), the construction of new communities provides a or new land? How will any territorial selection of or jurisdictional disputes be resolved? key web-based How will those to be displaced resources plus retain significant control over these contact details aspects? If an island country is of many of the entirely evacuated but the islands organisations are submerged only at the highest working in tides, who owns the fishing rights in this field. the surrounding seas? Could those rights be sold, with oil and other mineral resources potentially being Also available is a Research Guide on the same subject, online at: more valuable than fish? If a state is www.forcedmigration.org/guides/fmo046 disbanded because of displacement