December 2019 Mapping the Information Environment in the Pacific Island Countries: Disruptors, Deficits, and Decisions Lauren Dickey, Erica Downs, Andrew Taffer, and Heidi Holz with Drew Thompson, S. Bilal Hyder, Ryan Loomis, and Anthony Miller Maps and graphics created by Sue N. Mercer, Sharay Bennett, and Michele Deisbeck Approved for Public Release: distribution unlimited. IRM-2019-U-019755-Final Abstract This report provides a general map of the information environment of the Pacific Island Countries (PICs). The focus of the report is on the information environment—that is, the aggregate of individuals, organizations, and systems that shape public opinion through the dissemination of news and information—in the PICs. In this report, we provide a current understanding of how these countries and their respective populaces consume information. We map the general characteristics of the information environment in the region, highlighting trends that make the dissemination and consumption of information in the PICs particularly dynamic. We identify three factors that contribute to the dynamism of the regional information environment: disruptors, deficits, and domestic decisions. Collectively, these factors also create new opportunities for foreign actors to influence or shape the domestic information space in the PICs. This report concludes with recommendations for traditional partners and the PICs to support the positive evolution of the information environment. This document contains the best opinion of CNA at the time of issue. It does not necessarily represent the opinion of the sponsor or client. Distribution Approved for public release: distribution unlimited. 12/10/2019 Cooperative Agreement/Grant Award Number: SGECPD18CA0027. This project has been supported by funding from the U.S. Department of State. Cover image credit: Shutterstock. Approved by: Maryanne Kivlehan-Wise December 2019 Maryanne Kivlehan-Wise Deputy Director China and Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Division Request additional copies of this document through [email protected]. Copyright © 2019 CNA. All rights reserved Executive Summary Introduction This report provides a general map of the information environment of the Pacific Island Countries (PICs). The focus of the report is on the information environment—that is, the aggregate of individuals, organizations, and systems that play a key role in shaping opinions through the dissemination of news and information—in the PICs. In this report we undertake the following: Examine how these countries consume information. Map the general characteristics of the information environment in the region to include key actors and the ownership structure of key media outlets. Highlight trends that make the information environment in the PICs particularly dynamic. Identify factors that may contribute to the resilience or vulnerability of the information environments in the PICs. Identify issues likely to shape the region’s future information environment and the role of external actors. Highlight steps traditional partners could take to help enhance the PICs’ ability to retain autonomy in their information domains. This report provides a current overview of how various groups and publics throughout the region consume information in the PICs. This overview can serve as a baseline for assessing the extent to which the PICs are at risk to adversarial state-sponsored propaganda, disinformation, or other influence activities. Key findings The information environment in the PICs is unique in its extraordinary diversity. The remote and disparate geography of the PICs results in highly varied access to basic infrastructure, including electricity and the internet. CNA Research Memorandum | i The socio-cultural diversity of the region creates wide variation in how people consume information. Residents of the region speak 24 official languages and thousands of indigenous or unofficial local languages. The information environment in Oceania is highly dynamic. This dynamism is the result of disruptors, deficits, and decisions. Disruptors: Within the past decade, three disruptors—deregulation of the media and telecommunication sectors, the advent of submarine cables, and the proliferation of mobile technology—have reshaped the information environments in many PICs and created opportunities for new voices and platforms to emerge. Deficits: At the same time, the information environment is characterized and shaped by persistent deficits. Many smaller PICs do not have the resources or capabilities necessary to generate enough content to fill the airwaves and the pages of print media, provide sufficient training for media professionals, or develop communications infrastructure. These deficits have created gaps that are being filled by a range of foreign actors, including media outlets, governments, and international organizations. Decisions: Dynamism in the information environment is also a result of the policy choices national governments in the PICs make about how to regulate their media industry, what (if any) limits should be put on speech and press freedoms, and which foreign partners to engage with on issues that have the potential to affect their domestic information environments. Other decisions that affect the information environment include relations between the PICs and traditional partners, Australia and New Zealand; diplomatic recognition of China; development assistance from international organizations. This dynamism of Oceania’s information environment results in simultaneous continuity and competition. Higher levels of connectivity enjoyed by people across the PICs have brought countless new sources of news and information via satellite TV, smartphone, and the internet. As traditional partners for many of the PICs, Australia and New Zealand occupy positions of privilege in the media. However, their positions are less secure than they once were. China’s growing presence in the region is also challenging the presence of traditional partners. As Beijing deepens its engagement with the PICs, this competition for influence in the information space is likely to intensify. CNA Research Memorandum | ii Traditional regional partners—Australia and New Zealand—are likely to face the greatest competition from emerging actors, such as China, in the following areas: Filling deficits in media content. Both Australia and New Zealand have introduced plans to provide enhanced media content to the PICs. Meanwhile, China has sought to expand its footprint in regional media through such means as establishing content- sharing agreements between state-run PRC media outlets and local media and broadcasting on shortwave radio frequencies vacated by ABC (Australia) in 2017. Providing ICT infrastructure and services. External actors, including governments and international organizations, are competing to provide infrastructure enabling connectivity and access to information in the PICs. This creates new types of risk for the governments of the PICs. o Digicel, a financially distressed Jamaica-based firm with ties to Chinese telecommunications company ZTE, is a primary provider of digital connectivity in many of the PICs. o Traditional development partners, such as the Asian Development Bank, seek to ensure that their projects are transparent and financially sustainable. In contrast, Chinese assistance for infrastructure projects—such as Huawei’s attempted cable construction in the Solomon Islands—has not always been transparent. Providing media training and education. Australia, New Zealand, and the US have traditionally led a variety of training programs for media professionals from the Pacific. China is now offering more opportunities for media professionals from the PICs to receive training and other forms of professional education in China. However, many of these programs appear to prioritize promoting a positive impression of China over meeting the needs of the PICs. Maintaining status as partner of choice. Foreign policy decisions that PIC governments make about external partners have an effect upon the information environment. China’s efforts to seek deeper political and economic ties to countries in the region provide a basis for closer involvement or cooperation in the media. As with any bilateral relationship, however, familiarity can also breed contempt—the Solomon Islands and Tonga have both experienced anti-Chinese riots since 2006. A country’s resilience against unsanctioned interference or influence by foreign actors in its information environment may be affected by the following factors: Availability of diverse media voices Regulations to guide the licensing and operations of foreign media Restrictions on foreign involvement or investment in the media CNA Research Memorandum | iii Adequate domestic resources to support domestic media, including content, infrastructure, and training Diversity of political partnerships, including with international organizations to provide development assistance in the media and related sectors. A country’s vulnerability to unsanctioned interference or influence by foreign actors in its information environment may be affected by the following factors: State involvement in the media through arbitrary controls, including bans and blackouts Few, if any, regulations to guide licensing and operations of foreign media Limited restrictions on foreign involvement or investment in the media Inadequate domestic resources to support domestic media actors, yielding a high level of