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Trends and Analysis Summary

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Trends and Analysis Summary Trends and Analysis Summary County of Grey Housing and Homelessness Plan 2014-2024 Introduction The County of Grey is developing a 10 year Housing and Homelessness Plan. The plan is required under the Housing Services Act, 2011 and the Ontario Housing Policy Statement. The Housing Services Act, 2011 requires the plan include an assessment of current and future housing needs in the service area. This brief assessment provides an overview of population characteristics and trends, examines the current state of housing in the County, housing assets, housing needs and housing affordability. This report outlines an environmental scan of the indicators that identify why a housing and homelessness plan is needed for our community and the level of need in the community The information was gathered from a number of documents and reports such as: Grey County Housing Study 2010 Socio Economic and Housing Trends Analysis Report, Housing Services Corporation Statistics Canada HHRC data Profiles, Services Canada United Way 2011 Hunger Report: Hunger Games The report also generates information from various informal statistics gathered from our community partners and programs. Page 2 General Population Indicators The sustainability of a community depends on it’s ability to support all residents in terms of providing various housing types, opportunities and price ranges. Appropriate, affordable and safe housing is key to a thriving community, lack of affordable housing limits economic opportunities and can lead to substandard living conditions. Population Growth The County of Grey consists of nine local municipalities; City of Owen Sound, Township of Georgian Bluffs, Township of Chatsworth, Municipality of Meaford, Municipality of Grey Highlands, Municipality of West Grey, Township of Southgate, Town of Hanover and the Town of The Blue Mountains. In 2011 the County of Grey’s population was approximately 92,565, comprising 0.7% of Ontario’s total population. As illustrated in Figure 1, between 1996 and 2011 the County’s permanent population grew by 5.6% from 87,621 to 92,565, and by 0.1% between 2006 and 2011. This rate of growth, while positive, is considerably lower than the Provincial growth rate over the same time period, at over 13%.1 Table 1: Population Growth, County of Grey, 1996, 2001, 2006, 2011 94000 92411 92565 92000 89073 90000 87621 88000 86000 84000 Population (#) 1996 2001 2006 2011 Year County of Grey Source: HHRC Data Profile (2006-2011 Censuses) 1 Socio-Economic and Housing Trends Analysis Report, Housing Services Corp, p.4 Page 3 Age Distribution Table 2: Trends in Age Distribution by Age Group, County of Grey, 2006-2011 2006 2011 2006 - 2011 (% Growth) Age Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total - Age groups 92,415 45,450 46,960 92,565 45,420 47,145 0.2% -0.1% 0.4% 0 to 4 years 4,255 2,265 1,985 4,285 2,245 2,045 0.7% -0.9% 3.0% 5 to 9 years 4,995 2,610 2,385 4,455 2,340 2,120 -10.8% -10.3% -11.1% 10 to 14 years 5,960 3,030 2,925 5,195 2,680 2,510 -12.8% -11.6% -14.2% 15 to 19 years 6,595 3,405 3,195 5,905 3,010 2,890 -10.5% -11.6% -9.5% 20 to 24 years 5,145 2,685 2,460 5,190 2,630 2,555 0.9% -2.0% 3.9% 25 to 29 years 4,065 2,010 2,055 4,260 2,180 2,080 4.8% 8.5% 1.2% 30 to 34 years 4,200 2,060 2,140 4,180 2,035 2,145 -0.5% -1.2% 0.2% 35 to 39 years 5,075 2,440 2,635 4,470 2,235 2,230 -11.9% -8.4% -15.4% 40 to 44 years 6,695 3,300 3,395 5,265 2,550 2,715 -21.4% -22.7% -20.0% 45 to 49 years 7,630 3,665 3,960 6,995 3,450 3,545 -8.3% -5.9% -10.5% 50 to 54 years 7,290 3,585 3,705 7,765 3,715 4,055 6.5% 3.6% 9.4% 55 to 59 years 7,205 3,535 3,670 7,620 3,720 3,900 5.8% 5.2% 6.3% 60 to 64 years 6,000 2,950 3,050 7,475 3,625 3,845 24.6% 22.9% 26.1% 65 to 69 years 4,915 2,435 2,485 5,890 2,915 2,975 19.8% 19.7% 19.7% 70 to 74 years 4,255 2,080 2,175 4,540 2,235 2,305 6.7% 7.5% 6.0% 75 to 79 years 3,615 1,705 1,910 3,710 1,770 1,935 2.6% 3.8% 1.3% 80 to 84 years 2,340 935 1,410 2,885 1,285 1,595 23.3% 37.4% 13.1% 85 years and 2,165 750 1,420 2,495 810 1,685 15.2% 8.0% 18.7% over Source: HHRC Data Profile - Population Distribution by Age and Sex Overall, the County’s population is aging and is relatively old in comparison to most other areas of the province, due to a significantly larger proportion (37.4%) of the population aged over 55. Population growth has been relatively limited as a The median age in Grey result of in-migration of older age-groups looking County in 2011 was for affordable, small-town or rural communities in 47.3 years which to retire. Page 4 Table 3: Forecast Change in Population Age for Grey County Source Statistics Canada The aging of the County’s population is expected to continue, with the proportion of those aged over 55 expected to increase from 33% to 42% by 2031. An increase in an older population and a decrease in a younger population will have significant fiscal, service and policy implications for Grey County. Page 5 Household Type Table 4: Household Type by Structural Type of Dwelling, County of Grey 2006 Household Type Single- Apartment, Movable Semi- Row Apartment, Apartment, Other detached building dwelling detached house duplex building single- house that has house that has attached five or fewer than house more five storeys storeys Total - Household type 29,165 905 235 675 1330 565 4175 125 Couples without children 10,725 200 70 145 365 135 770 25 Couple with children 9,595 20 45 165 230 95 315 20 Lone-parent family 1,865 15 0 145 205 60 500 30 households Other family households 1,080 0 0 20 30 25 90 0 One person households 5,900 670 125 200 505 250 2,500 45 Two or more person 510 10 25 15 25 30 160 0 households Source: HHRC Data Profile - Household Type by Structural Type of Dwelling- Housing Tenure Single-detached dwellings are the main form of housing for all household types. Couple families are the majority of the single detached houses whereas one person households are the largest number of renters. Over 80% of the County’s dwellings are of low density forms such as single detached or semi detached homes, 14% are apartments and 5% are row homes. The majority of higher density units are concentrated in Owen Sound and Hanover. This makes up 73% of the County’s apartment supply. Page 6 Rental vs. Ownership Table 5: Owned vs. Rented Housing by Municipality In 2006 78% of all households were owners and 22% were renters. A large proportion of housing in the County is owned, due primarily to ownership affordability and the limited supply of rental units. Page 7 Age of Housing Stock Table 6: Period of Dwelling Construction by Housing Tenure, County of Grey 2006 Owned Rented Total 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 # of Dwellings 2000 1000 0 1920 or 1921 - 1946 - 1961- 1971- 1981- 1986- 1991- 1996- 2001- before 1945 1960 1970 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2006 Owned 7230 2025 2865 2510 4390 1470 3045 2160 1290 2175 Rented 1,740 920 990 1,150 1,690 345 455 410 160 160 Total 8,970 2,945 3,855 3,660 6,080 1,815 3,500 2,570 1,450 2,335 Year of Dwelling Construction Source: HHRC Data Profile - Period of Construction by Condition of Dwelling 68% of the housing stock in the County is over 30 years old. 24% was built prior to the 1920’s. Less than 9% of rental units in the County were built Aging rental and homeowner post 1991. units and very little new housing being built mean it is essential to Less than 20% owned housing units were built post preserve existing units. 1991. The age of the rental stock indicates a large portion of the rental units are likely in poor condition and will require upgrades. Condition of Housing Stock Page 8 Table 7: Condition of Housing Stock, County of Grey 2006 30,000 24,060 25,000 18920 20,000 15,000 10,255 10,000 8225 5,140 5,000 2,030 2,875 2020 Number of Dwellings 855 0 Regular Maintenance only Minor repairs Major repairs Level of Repair Needed Total Rented Owned Source: HHRC Data Profile - Period of Construction by Condition of Dwellings The majority or 64% of the housing stock appears to be in good shape however the remaining 35% requires some sort of repairs. It is worth noting that condition of housing stock is self reported from household returns. As the housing stock in Grey County is older, it is acceptable to assume there will be the need for maintenance and continuing maintenance in future years for homeowners and land lords.
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